<p>Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.</p>

<p>Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]</p>

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

<p>Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;</p>

<p>At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.</p>

<p>Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]</p>

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

<p>Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.</p>

<p>David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.</p>

<p>“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]</p>

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

<p>While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.</p>

<p>Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;</p>


Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.</p>

<p>The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.</p>

<p>Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.</p>

<p>“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" /></p>

<p>Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.</p>

<p>The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.</p>

<p>“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.</p>

<p>“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”</p>

<p><img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" /></p>

<p>Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.</p>

<p>“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.</p>

<p>The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.</p>

<p>“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”</p>

<p>The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.</p>

<p>The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.</p>


Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

<p>Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.</p>

<p>Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.</p>

<p>The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.</p>

<p>“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.</p>

<p>“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”</p>

<p>The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.</p>

<p>“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”</p>

<p>From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.</p>

<p>“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”</p>

<p>The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.</p>

<p>“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.</p>

<p>“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.</p>

<p>“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”</p>

<p>The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.</p>

<p>“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.</p>

<p>Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

<p>Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.</p>

<p>The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.</p>

<p>It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.</p>

<p>With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.</p>

<p>“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.</p>

<p>“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" /></p>

<p>GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.</p>

<p>“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”</p>

<p>Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.</p>

<p>“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.</p>

<p><img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.</p>

<p>Green praised local policy settings.</p>

<p>“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”</p>

<p>One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.</p>

<p>“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.</p>


One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

<p>It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.</p>

<p>Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.</p>

<p>Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be</p>

<p data-end="683" data-start="511">"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."</p>

<p data-end="882" data-start="690">[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]</p>

<p>The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.</p>

<p>The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.</p>

<p>Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]</p>

<p>Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.</p>

<p>The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]</p>

<p data-end="247" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.</p>

<p>WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.</p>

<p>With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]</p>


WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

<html><body>
<p>GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Australia’s big little economic lie was laid bare on Wednesday.</p>
<p>National accounts figures show that the Australian economy grew <a href="http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/meisubs.nsf/0/7F1A83D8EEABAF73CA2583B40018551F/%24File/52060_dec%202018.pdf" target="_blank">by just 0.2%</a> in the last quarter of 2018. This disappointing result was below market expectations and official forecasts of 0.6%. It put annual growth for the year at just 2.3%.</p>
<p>But the shocking revelation was that Gross Domestic Product per person (a more relevant measure of living standards) actually slipped in the December quarter by 0.2%, on the back of a fall of 0.1% in the September quarter.</p>
<p>These are the first back-to-back quarters of negative GDP per capita growth in 13 years - since 2006.</p>
<p><strong>We’re going backwards, for the first time in 13 years</strong></p>
<p>The reason this is significant is that the Australian convention around what constitutes a recession is two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP growth.</p>
<p>Since more people in the economy mechanically increases overall GDP, you might think that measuring things on a per-person basis gives a better sense of whether we are better off or worse off.</p>
<p>And you would be right. Why then, do we talk so much about overall GDP?</p>
<p>One answer is that in a lot of advanced economies there isn’t very much population growth, so overall GDP is a good enough measure.</p>
<p><strong>Population growth hides it</strong></p>
<p>The more insidious answer in Australia is that, for a long time, our high population growth, fed by a high immigration rate, has masked a much less rosy picture of how we are doing. And neither side of politics has wanted to admit it.</p>
<p>At 1.6% a year, Australia’s population growth is roughly double the OECD average, which is perhaps why we hear politicians say things like “Australia continues to grow faster than all of the G7 nations except the United States,” as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg did this week.</p>
<p>The good news is that standard economic theory tells us that in the long run, immigration has very little impact on GDP per capita in either direction, unless it drives a shift in the population’s mix of skills.</p>
<p>But in the short term, it depresses GDP per capita because fixed capital such as buildings and machines has to be shared between more workers.</p>
<p>The business lobby doesn’t want us to focus on that because population provides more customers as well as more workers, allowing them to grow without growing domestic market share or exports.</p>
<p>Governments don’t want us to focus on it because adjusting for population growth makes GDP growth look small or, as at present, negative. Also, the tax revenue from the population growth is factored into the official budget forecasts – but the extra social spending needed isn’t always factored in.</p>
<p>Pro tip: watch for population growth as a fudge factor generating a return to surplus in next month’s budget.</p>
<p><strong>There’s a better way of getting at the truth</strong></p>
<p>That said, GDP itself – per capita or not – is not a great measure of the standard of living. That’s why in 2001, the Bureau of Statistics began also reporting <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/3d68c56307742d8fca257090002029cd/3fa94a5da5f20eddca256b7400730b78!OpenDocument" target="_blank">real net national disposable income</a>.</p>
<p>It is a measure with advantages over GDP. As the bureau points out, it takes account of changes in the prices of our exports relative to the prices of our imports - our terms of trade. If the prices of our exports were increasing much faster than the prices of our imports (as happened during the mining booms), our standard of living would climb and real net national disposable income would reflect it, where as gross domestic product would not, although it would reflect increased income from increased export volumes.</p>
<p>To get at living standards per person, which is what we are really interested in, the bureau also publishes real net national disposable income per capita.</p>
<p><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262582/original/file-20190307-100799-crlh9b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></p>
<p>The graph shows that so far the growth rate of real net national disposable income per capita hasn’t changed much, and that it has been negative for far fewer quarters than in the Coalition’s first term in office.</p>
<p>It bounces around with changes in the prices of imports and exports, and is generally climbing less than when export prices were really high.</p>
<p><strong>A year of two halves?</strong></p>
<p>The treasurer painted 2018 as a “year of two halves”.</p>
<p>The first half was great - the annualised GDP growth rate (what it would have been had it continued all year) was a very impressive 3.8%.</p>
<p>The second half was just 1%.</p>
<p>I’m not sure the change was that clear cut. As I wrote <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-national-accounts-show-past-performance-no-guarantee-of-future-results-102717" target="_blank">last September</a>, there have been troubling signs for some time, despite the solid headline growth.</p>
<p>Household savings have been plummeting, real wage growth has been stagnant, housing prices have been falling in Sydney and Melbourne. Together they put significant pressure on household spending, which accounts for about 60% of GDP.</p>
<p>Those concerns are now mainstream. Good news on export prices has rescued tax receipts for the time being, and will probably also rescue real net national disposable income per capita.</p>
<p>But the fundamentals of the Australian economy are looking somewhat weak. Like the US and other advanced economies, we are living in an era of secular stagnation – a protracted period of much lower growth than we had come to expect.</p>
<p>And until we do something to tackle it, such as a major government investment in physical and social infrastructure, we will continue to face anaemic wage growth, shaky consumer confidence, and mediocre economic growth per person.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113026/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a></em></p>
<p><em>This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-australias-sudden-ultra-low-economic-growth-ought-not-to-have-come-as-surprise-113026" target="_blank">original article</a>.</em></p>
</body></html>

rh-YsoTT2xMuQ

Australia’s sudden ultra-low economic growth ought not to have come as surprise: Richard Holden

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Today’s headline print for Q1 was weak, with real GDP growth of 0.3% q-o-q and 1.7% y-o-y (market had 1.6%). </span></p>
<p><span>But most of the weakness is weather-related and therefore temporary. Cyclone Debbie and wet weather on the East coast weighed on housing construction and exports. </span></p>
<p><span>Timely indicators already suggest a bounce back. </span></p>
<p><span>A clearer read of underlying conditions may be gleaned from surveyed business conditions, which are around decade-highs. And why shouldn’t they be? Corporate profits are up 30% y-o-y and nominal GDP rose by 7.7% y-o-y, its fastest pace in over five years.</span></p>
<p><span> Add to this, Australia just set a new record for developed world growth, with a 26 year boom! If yesterday’s RBA announcement is any guide, the central bank is largely ignoring the volatile, weather-effected GDP numbers and looking at the business and labour market surveys, which still show trend improvement. We see the RBA on hold this year and a hike in early 2018.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-08%20at%207.57.24%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-08%20at%207.57.24%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span>Facts </span></p>
<p><span>Real GDP rose by 0.3% q-o-q in Q1, to be 1.7% higher y-o-y. </span></p>
<p><span>Household consumption rose 0.5% q-o-q to be 2.3% higher y-o-y. Dwelling investment fell by -4.4% q-o-q and -2.5% y-o-y. Business investment rose 0.7% q-o-q but was down -2.8% y-o-y. Public demand lifted by 0.2% q-o-q and 5.3% y-o-y. Overall, domestic demand (GNE) rose 0.8% q-o-q and 2.4% y-o-y. This was the strongest annual rate of growth in GNE since Q4 2012. </span></p>
<p><span>Net exports were a significant drag on growth in the quarter, with export volumes falling 1.6% q- o-q and imports lifting by 1.6%. Net exports subtracted -0.7ppts from the quarterly growth rate and 0.4ppts from year-ended growth. </span></p>
<p><span>Real gross domestic income rose by 1.7% q-o-q to be 6.5% higher y-o-y. Real net national disposable income per capita rose by 0.8% q-o-q and 4.0% y-o-y. </span></p>
<p><span>Nominal GDP rose by 2.3% q-o-q and 7.7% y-o-y, boosted by a 6.6% q-o-q and 24.8% y-o-y lift in the terms of trade. </span></p>
<p><span>The household saving ratio fell from 5.1% to 4.7%. </span></p>
<p><span>Implications </span></p>
<p><span>Australia’s sets 26-year growth record! That could have been the headline for this piece. Having just clicked past 103 quarters of continuous GDP growth without a technical recession, Australia has just overtaken the Netherlands to have the longest boom of any developed economy. For those interested, the Dutch economy had 102 quarters of continuous expansion between 1982 and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (although there is some debate about whether the Dutch had a technical recession in 2003). Whatever the technicalities, the bottom line is that Australia has now had the longest boom (Chart 1). </span></p>
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<p><span>Instead, the market is focused on the weak quarterly print, which has been largely driven by the weather! Hence our title. </span></p>
<p><span>Today’s numbers showed that real GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in Q1, from 1.1% in Q4 2016. Of course, the 1.1% was a bit overstated, as it was a bounce back from the surprising -0.4% fall in Q3 2016. As the RBA stated yesterday, the slowdown in GDP growth partly reflects the ‘quarter-to-quarter variation in the growth figures’. </span></p>
<p><span>This is true, but unusual weather also played a role. Cyclone Debbie and very wet weather on the east coast appear to have weighed on housing construction, which fell by -4.4% q-o-q, and on exports, which were down -1.6% q-o-q (Chart 2 and 3). Retail spending fell sharply in Queensland in March. Part of this is likely to continue into Q2, as coal exports fell in April, although there are already signs of a bounce back in retail sales in April and coal exports in May. </span></p>
<p><span>The underlying trends for real GDP are more positive. After a number of years of mining investment weighing on overall investment, the business investment numbers are now starting to rise. The decline in mining investment is almost done and non-mining business investment is showing a modest lift in momentum. For more on our views on this see: </span><span>'Downunder Digest: Australia's next investment upswing', 21 March 2017</span><span>.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-08%20at%207.59.59%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-08%20at%207.59.59%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Although the volume numbers have been volatile and knocked around by the weather the income numbers in the GDP figures were unquestionably strong. Corporate profits rose by a very strong 30% y-o- y, supported by the rise in commodity prices over the previous year. This has lifted nominal GDP to its fastest rate of growth in over five years at 7.7% y-o-y (Chart 4). The lift in corporate profits helps to explain why business investment is starting to pick up. The rise in profits is also extending a bit beyond the mining industry, with profits in the finance and insurance and professional services industries also lifting. </span></p>
<p><span>The rise in corporate profits helps to explain why surveyed business conditions have continued to improve and most of the labour market measures are trending higher. The collection of Australian Industry Group surveys, which are now published for May, suggest business conditions were still at around decade-high levels in May (Chart 5). </span></p>
<p><span>The key challenge remains that, although corporate profits and nominal GDP have picked up, largely driven by the rise in commodity prices, this has yet to show up in wages growth. Compensation of employees rose in Q1, following a fall in Q4 2016, but is still running at a weak 1.5% y-o-y. At this stage there is little evidence of the boost to national incomes is flowing through to households (Chart 6).</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-08%20at%208.00.50%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/08/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-08%20at%208.00.50%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<p><span>However, as the chart shows, history suggests that it will. Yesterday’s decision to lift the minimum wage by more than in previous rounds may very well be the first sign of this starting to happen. For more the wages outlook see: </span><span>'Downunder Digest: Show me the money', 20 April 2017</span><span>. </span></p>
<p><span>We expect growth to pick up in the second half, following the weather-effected weakness in the first half. We expect this to push the unemployment rate lower and to drive a modest rise in wages growth in the second half. We expect the RBA to be on hold this year and to lift its cash rate in early 2018. </span></p>
<p><span><em><a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. </em></span></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Blame the weather and then ignore it: HSBC's Paul Bloxham on the GDP

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<p>After posting some healthy looking results over recent quarters, figures released today show Australia’s economy contracted during the September 2016 quarter marking the first quarterly decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since 2011 and only the third quarterly decline in the last decade.</p>
<p>A decline in GDP was not unexpected, however the magnitude of the decline makes the result worthy of closer scrutiny, said Geordan Murray, economist at the Housing Industry Association.</p>
<p>“The value of investment in residential building declined by 1.4 percent in the quarter, however it remains 7.2 percent higher than in the September quarter a year earlier.</p>
<p>In the context of the residential building cycle reaching a record high, the decline in investment in the sector and the role that it played in the overall contraction in GDP is likely to be a point of discussion,” he said.</p>
<p>The 1.4 percent decline in aggregate investment in residential building was the result of a 1.6 percent decline in work done building dwellings, and a 1.0 percent reduction in renovations activity.</p>
<p>“Quarter by quarter fluctuations are expected and poor weather has been blamed for the weak result for the construction sector in the September 2016 quarter.</p>
<p>The latest quarterly decline is not likely to herald the turning point for residential investment just yet, he noted.</p>
<p>There is still a significant volume of work that remains to be done on projects at various stages of construction which will see the level of investment remain at a historically high level over the next few quarters.”</p>
<p>“With GDP contracting by 0.5 percent in the September quarter it will be tempting to focus on the negative headline result.</p>
<p>It is worth noting that the most significant factor detracting from growth was a reduction in capital investment by the various levels of government.</p>
<p>A reduction in defence expenditure was a significant item, while there was also a significant reduction in capital investment by state and local governments,”</p>
<p>“Looking at private sector investment, results continue to be mixed. On the positive side, investment in machinery and equipment increased and the agricultural sector made a strong contribution to growth.</p>
<p>However, this was outweighed by quite a significant drop in new non-residential building along with the modest reduction in residential building investment.</p>
<p>In addition, the widely anticipated contraction in mining related engineering investment continues to weigh on growth,” concluded Geordan Murray.</p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Housing unexpectedly bites as GDP declines

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<div>Australia's GDP increased to $1.67 trillion in financial year 2016, measured in seasonally adjusted Chain Volume Measures terms, now tracking at just above $420 billion per quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Following on from yesterday's post, a quick look here at industry gross value added (GVA).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Having accounted for just over 5 per cent of industry GVA three decades ago, mining's share has swelled to 8.9 percent as export volumes begin to ramp up.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finance and insurance also now accounts for 8.9 per cent of industry GVA, up from just 4.9 per cent in 1986.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>You can click on the chart to expand it (or use the touch screen, if you have one of those, of course).</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2016/09/28/GVA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/09/28/GVA.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div>On the other hand, manufacturing is shrinking as a share of the pie, declining from a share of 11.1 percent at the beginning of this chart to just 5.8 percent in 2016.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Construction wind-down</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures show that the contribution of construction to GDP has remained solid at 7.6 per cent, tracking at around $32 billion per quarter.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>A decade ago construction was contributing only $13 to $14 billion per quarter. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This suggests that the planned 'hand-off' from resources to residential construction was generally a success between 2012 and 2016. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this does also mean that as residential construction eventually winds down there will be quite a hole in domestic demand to be plugged by something other than rising mining export volumes.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given the respective skill-sets of all those construction workers, tradies, and project managers, the answer should be: infrastructure and non-residential construction, as I looked at in a bit more detail here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, the unprecedented stamp duty windfall from Sydney's property boom is already funding a range of infrastructure projects in Sydney and New South Wales. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>But what about the gaping gulf left behind in the resources regions? </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Troubling, and this may be leading to an exodus of regional workers. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

When construction winds down: Pete Wargent

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<div class="separator">Some years ago there were doomsday predictions of a property correction in Australia since dwelling prices had reached three times the value of our Gross Domestic Product (the exact relevance of the three times figure was never adequately explained).</div>
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<div class="separator">Today, the ratio is just over 3.6 times, having ticked down slightly over the past six months of publicly available official figures.</div>
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<div class="separator">Is there a link between the two measures? Kind of, but it's not very strong.</div>
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<div class="separator">In fact, as a predictor of property prices the ratio has been useless in recent years. Actually, no, it's been worse than useless - it has been a contra-indicator!</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">One problem with GDP is that it's historic in nature, so at best it tells you what was happening in the economy months ago - thus as an indicator of future outcomes it's necessarily all that useful.</div>
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<div class="separator">More pertinently this ratio doesn't make a lot of logical sense since it compares a <strong>stock</strong> value at a fixed point in time with a <strong>flow</strong>, being the value of goods and services produced over a specified period of time (in the example in the chart below, one year).   </div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/STOCK.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/STOCK.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Furthermore, some types of property in thinner markets fare much better in times of boom, and worse in times of bust. And some types of property in some inner suburban locations tend to outperform the averages over time, while properties is lower demand generally fail to keep pace with the averages.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Key national accounts aggregates</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">In today's electronically connected world, hordes have wanted to be the person to 'call' the next Australian recession. But the economy has proved to be surprisingly robust, with the annualised rate of GDP growth for the past six months accelerating to 3.6 per cent. </div>
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<div class="separator">The riposte has been that GDP is the "wrong" measure - we should ignore GDP and look at national income. </div>
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<div class="separator">It is indeed true that real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) gross national income has stalled, but then again Australia's commodity prices could not and did not grow to the sky, so this isn't necessarily that surprising. </div>
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<div class="separator">Another way to look at this is that national income has more than doubled over the past twenty years, even after accounting for inflation.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/GDP.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator">Moreover, if GDP is an unreliable measure of the performance of the economy, how can it be a good measure of dwelling prices? Can't have it both ways! </div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">National accounts</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">The national accounts provide us with a range of figures relating to the property markets, but as implied by the name of the data release the figures are national and backward-looking in nature, and therefore don't really tell us much of interest about what sub-regional property markets are up to or will be up to.</div>
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<div class="separator">As noted, the national accounts lag a bit, but broadly home owners owe about $1 trillion in mortgage debt, and investors about $550 billion. What is not so well shown by these figures is that mortgage buffers and offset accounts are also at record high levels. </div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/DEBT1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<br><div>With dwelling price growth having outpaced the growth in household debt, gearing ratios have declined in recent years.</div>
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<br><div class="separator">None of which tells of much of any predictive value. We can all think of housing markets in Australia that are overvalued; but equally we can all name others where prices are getting walloped or have already crashed. </div>
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<div class="separator">If there is one ratio from the national accounts which is useful in predicting where to next for dwelling prices - and I'm not saying that there necessarily is - it's the ratio of housing interest payable to income. </div>
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<div class="separator">The actual quoted percentage figure is skewed lower since so many households have no mortgage debt at all, but has declined from a peak of 16.4 per cent in June 2008 to 9.7 per cent by December 2015. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">On this measure, mortgage repayments are more than 40 per cent cheaper than they were at their 2008 peak.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/INTEREST%20PAYABLE.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/INTEREST%20PAYABLE.jpg" alt=""></div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rates heading lower?</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">It would be fair to say that if mortgage rates head back to where they were at their most recent peak of about 8 to 9 per cent, then many of Australia's housing markets are heading into correction territory. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">It's an interesting bet if you want to take it on. But money markets are begging to differ, with yields grinding out new lows in anticipation of possible Brexit turmoil. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">Yesterday Australia's 10 year government bond yield fell to its lowest ever level at well below 2 per cent.</div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/07/06/RBA.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/07/06/RBA.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div>Meanwhile, OIS rates are on a seek and destroy mission to crunch out new record lows, and they are winning that particular battle. We are now just one benign inflation print from seeing a new record low cash rate in August.</div>
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<img src="/images/2016/07/06/OIS.jpg" alt=""><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong><br><br><div>GDP is a useful measure of the strength or otherwise of the economy. And over the long term stronger economic growth may be reflected in higher dwelling prices - but not necessarily so, since there are so many other contributory factors, such as tax settings or the supply of new dwellings, for example. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's true that property prices can fall during recessions. But then again they can fall when GDP is positive such as they did in 2011 and early 2012.<br><br>And what about China, where real GDP growth has slowed from above 13 per cent in 2007 to just 6.7 per cent (if you can call 6.7 per cent slow), yet house prices in Shenzhen have skyrocketed by more than 50 per cent within the past year?<br><br>Obviously there are many other factors at play than purely economic growth.  And if there is a correlation between GDP and dwelling stock valuations, it's a tenuous one. </div>
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<div class="post-footer"> 
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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The GDP myth and doomsday property predictions: Pete Wargent

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Advanced economies have essentially been in a low growth, low inflation and low interest rate nexus since 2008. There have been a few oscillations along the way, but the trend has been consistent throughout.</p>
<p>The Australian economy was able to decouple from the “3 lows” for much of that period due to a mining investment boom that left the economy with little spare capacity. As a result, growth, inflation and interest rates were significantly higher in Australia than in the G7 economies. But that has since changed and Australia has transitioned to the low inflation and low interest rate world, says the latest note from CBA Economics.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.12.07%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.12.07%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>While GDP growth in Australia has been solid, if not spectacular, domestic demand growth has been soft. And while the unemployment rate has trended down recently, it is still stuck above the level associated with full employment.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.13.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.13.36%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>In other words, there is slack in the Australian economy and this has led to record low wages growth and underlying inflation now running below the RBA’s 2-3 percent pa target band. The RBA has responded by cutting its policy rate to a record low of 1¾ percent. The latest rate cut can be put down to a change in the RBA’s assessment on the outlook for inflation because the Bank significantly downgraded its inflation forecasts in the May Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP). As a result, we expect further rate cuts to come in 2016 as the central bank seeks to further stimulate the economy. We see the RBA cutting to 1¼%.</p>
<p>This note explores the issues around spare capacity, wages and inflation in Australia and the implications for monetary policy.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.14.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.14.36%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Spare capacity and the labour market</strong></p>
<p>Labour market outcomes provide key indicators of spare capacity in an economy. In particular, the unemployment and underemployment rates are measures that show how far an economy is operating below its potential.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate that is commensurate with an economy producing around its potential output is generally associated with stable inflation. It is referred to as the ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ (NAIRU). The most recent OECD estimates of the NAIRU in Australia put it at 5.3 percent and Treasury estimates it to be 5.0 percent. Whichever way you slice it, the unemployment rate in Australia has been above the NAIRU for the past three years even though it is low by historic standards.</p>
<p>The underemployment rate, however, remains near its highest level on record. This indicates that the Australian economy is operating below its capacity and an output gap has opened up. This has had implications for wages and inflation.</p>
<p>While the output gap in the US has been closing (and core inflation has lifted a little), the reverse has happened in Australia over the past two years. An output gap has opened up primarily due to the end of the labour-intensive mining investment boom and resultant impact on jobs and domestic demand. GDP growth has been solid over that period, but domestic demand growth has been soft.</p>
<p>Decent GDP growth and weak domestic demand growth is reconciled by the strong contribution to growth from net exports. The big lift in resource export volumes is great for headline GDP growth. But mining production is not labour intensive like mining investment. As such, productivity in the resources sector has lifted, but headcount has fallen.</p>
<p>The underemployment rate tends to fly under the radar, but it’s a very usual measure of labour market slack. It provides a gauge of the proportion of people who are employed people but whose labour is not fully utilised. It is near its highest level on record. The sum of the unemployment rate and the underemployment rate produces the underutilisation rate which is the broadest measure of spare capacity in the labour market – it is high and presently sits above the level hit during the Global Financial Crisis.</p>
<p>The lift in underutilisation is also captured through the step down in average hours worked by full-time workers from late-2011. Average hours worked of full-time workers remains well down on its late-2011 peak.</p>
<p><strong>Implications for wages</strong></p>
<p>The lift in the unemployment rate and associated increase in spare capacity in the labour market has contributed to a slowdown in wages growth (both real and nominal). Since mid-2010, wages growth has eased and is currently running at its lowest annual rate since the 1990s recession.</p>
<p>The decline in wages growth has been broad-based across the private and public sectors, though the public sector slowdown has not been as pronounced. Most industries have experienced a slowdown in wages growth and the Wage Price Index is growing at a flaccid 2.1 percent pa (as at QI 2016).</p>
<p>The picture appears even softer when looking at Average Weekly Earnings (AWEs) which are running at just 1.5 percent pa. The WPI measures changes in wages across a range of industries (just like the CPI picks up price changes for a basket of goods), but it doesn’t pick up compositional changes in the labour market. AWEs, however, do. Growth in AWEs has declined by more than growth in the WPI because of the shift in jobs away from higher paying mining-related jobs towards lower paid services sector jobs.</p>
<p>The slowdown in wages growth due to a lift in spare capacity and increase in the unemployment rate was expected. But the historical relationship between wages growth and the unemployment rate suggests that wages growth has slowed by a lot more than would have usually been expected. We think that there are a few reasons for this. First, a more flexible labour force enables firms’ greater scope to limit wages growth due to slackness in the labour market. It may be that workers are willing to take lower wages growth for job security.</p>
<p>Second, the underutilisation rate has risen by more than the increase in the unemployment rate meaning that the change in the unemployment rate alone is not fully capturing the lift in spare capacity in the labour market. Third, job security fears have risen substantially over the past few years. Employees are less likely to look to negotiate a pay rise while job security fears are elevated. Finally, the terms-of-trade has fallen significantly which means that nominal income growth has supressed across the economy. This has effectively crushed wages growth by more than would have otherwise been the case.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.15.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.15.38%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Implications for inflation</strong></p>
<p>Headline inflation has slowed considerably in Australia and has been running below the RBA’s target band for the past six consecutive quarters. Underlying inflation has also slowed and the most recent print (QI) showed it was running at just 1.5 percent pa.</p>
<p>The impact of declining wages growth as a result of a lift in spare capacity has put downward pressure on non-tradables (i.e domestic) inflation. At the same time, tradables inflation has slowed primarily because of a big fall in the price of oil. This muted the impact that the lower AUD was expected to have on tradables inflation. The relationship between non-tradables inflation and wages growth is depicted in the chart opposite. As spare capacity in the labour market has lifted, wages growth has slowed and dragged down the rate of domestic inflation with it.</p>
<p>We expect domestic inflation pressures to remain weak primarily because spare capacity in the labour market will keep a lid on wages costs. Wages growth is unlikely to lift until the unemployment rate gets closer to the NAIRU. And we are some way off that. In fact, falling inflation expectations in Australia points to some further weakness in wages growth.</p>
<p>The NAB survey of businesses suggests that there has been a sharp decline in long run inflation expectations. Almost 70 percent of Australian businesses surveyed expect inflation to average less than 3 percent over the long run, more than double the proportion before 2012. Business long run expectations for inflation has been a good predictor for wage inflation and suggests earnings growth may slow further in 2016 (see chart opposite).</p>
<p>There are other forces, too, that are weighing on inflation. Rental growth, for example, has slowed considerably because dwelling supply has lifted, particularly in the apartment space. With further supply to hit the market over the next 18 months, rent inflation should remain weak. So there aren’t any forces on the near term horizon that point to a lift in inflation. Eventually the large fall in oil prices will ‘wash through’ the quarterly data prints. But even so, we expect the pulse of headline and underlying inflation to remain soft.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-21%20at%2011.16.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
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<p><strong>Implications for monetary policy</strong></p>
<p>The degree of spare capacity in the economy is an important consideration for monetary policy because it is the primary driver of domestic inflation. The RBA’s rate cut in May came purely down to the Bank’s concerns about entrenched low inflation and disinflation risks. Growth and labour market trends didn’t signal that more rate cuts were forthcoming. Indeed, falling inflation against an unemployment rate that is trending lower is rare.</p>
<p>The Minutes of the May Board Meeting suggest that the decision to cut rates was a finely balanced one. Specifically, “members discussed the merits of adjusting policy at this meeting or awaiting further information before acting”.</p>
<p>So the 50/50 market pricing going into the meeting was probably right. But the May SMP, published a few days after the rate cut, suggests that further policy easing is coming. The Bank made material downgrades to its inflation forecasts in the SMP, shaving ½ppt off its near term underlying and headline inflation forecasts. The RBA now expects both underlying and headline inflation to be 1-2 percent pa over 2016 (below the Bank’s target band). This points to further rate cuts, in our view.</p>
<p>Since the May interest rate cut a number of prominent economists, policymakers and commentators have come out questioning the RBA’s latest rate cut. Indeed, former RBA Governor Ian Macfarlane stated that, “the inflation targeting approach says that if inflation forecasts are below target, we should run an easy monetary policy – we already have that.</p>
<p>It doesn't say that each time we receive an inflation statistic showing it is below target, we have to cut interest rates." And former RBA Governor Bernie Fraser stated that, “I was a bit surprised by the rate cut on budget day because of the ambiguity that such a move is likely to create in the public mind. I wouldn't myself have been concerned about a short period of under 2 per cent inflation – not in the slightest.”</p>
<p>These comments are interesting food for thought. Indeed, we have our own view on whether the RBA should have eased policy in May. But for us market economists, what primarily matters is calling what the RBA is likely to do next and not what we think they should do. As such, we expect further monetary policy easing and have pencilled in two more rate cuts that would take the cash rate to just 1¼ percent. Current market pricing is indicating a terminal cash rate of 1.42 percent.</p>
<p>As always, the timing of picking rate moves is pretty tough. But we favour August and November as these dates follow CPI updates. In our view, all rate meetings over the near term are “live” and activity data will play a role in shaping market expectations and pricing over coming months.</p>
<p><em><span>Gareth Aird is e</span><span>conomist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Why spare capacity is driving wages growth, inflation & rates down: CBA's Gareth Aird 

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The minutes of the March monetary policy meeting of the Board of the RBA provided no real surprises. When we assessed the Governor’s statement following the March meeting we pointed out that the key sentence “Members noted that continued low inflation would provide scope to ease monetary policy further, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand” had been changed from the February statement to include the word “would” instead of “may”. We interpreted that as a clear strengthening of the easing bias.</p>
<p>That decision may have been prompted by a concern that the December quarter GDP report that was set to be released the following day was going to show a significant slowdown in growth. As it turned out the report showed growth in 2015 to be 3%, comfortably above trend growth of 2.75%. In the minutes it is noted that it was reported to the Board that based on data available “growth appeared to have been slightly below average in the December quarter and over 2015 as a whole”. Clearly this assessment proved to be more cautious than turned out to be the final result. It is reasonable to argue that knowledge of the stronger GDP may have allowed the Board to retain its earlier more modest easing bias.</p>
<p>Of course we were also interested in the assessment of the surprise rise in the unemployment rate from 5.8% to 6.0% in January. The minutes while recognising that development point out that “leading indicators of employment had increased further and were consistent with employment growth in the months ahead”.</p>
<p>The minutes also clarified the relevance of the Capex survey. While the particularly weak Capex survey pointed out further but not surprising large falls in mining investment the picture around non-mining investment from the survey seemed to be overly pessimistic. The minutes point out that roughly half of non-mining investment is not covered by the Capex survey and that it had on occasions proved to be unreliable. Further boosting the view around business is the observation that surveys continue to point to conditions and capacity utilisation remaining above average levels.</p>
<p>The minutes have qualified the assessment that low wage growth points to some spare capacity in the labour market. They speculate that weak wages growth may be due to increasing globalisation. </p>
<p>There is a long discussion on China, particularly around longer run economic performance and risks to growth. The discussion covers potential financial problems in China but concludes that China’s low household debt and low level of foreign currency debt gave it much more protection from a crisis than in other emerging economies.</p>
<p>At the time of the last meeting the AUD was around USD0.715, little changed from the February meeting. With the currency subsequently rising to USD0.75 there may have been some temptation to use this document to signal any discomfort. This has not happened and the term “responded to the evolving economic outlook” has been maintained.</p>
<p>Conclusion</p>
<p>The minutes provide some insight into expectations around GDP; reaction to the surprise rise in the unemployment rate in January; and the weak Capex report. The ‘spin’ on all of these developments indicates a Bank that is comfortably on hold. However clearly considerable attention is being paid by the Bank to developments in China and sudden adverse developments in that region would undoubtedly prompt consideration for policy change.</p>
<p>We will have to await new communication from the Bank to assess its degree of unrest around the recent sharp jump in the AUD.</p>
<p>Westpac continues to expect that the Bank will remain on hold for the remainder of the course of 2016.</p>
<p><em>Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></p>
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No surprises in RBA minutes; positive spin on key data points to rates on hold: Westpac's Bill Evans

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Last week's GDP print was a strong result, considering the global backdrop. </span></p>
<p><span>Australia's economy grew at an above-trend pace of 3.0% y-o-y over 2015, despite falling commodity prices and China's slowdown. </span></p>
<p><span>Monetary policy deserves much of the credit. Cuts to interest rates over the past four years and a significant fall in the AUD have been the key supports for growth.</span></p>
<p><span> Low rates have lifted housing prices and construction, which is feeding through to a positive wealth effect on consumer spending. </span></p>
<p><span>The lower AUD is supporting strong export growth, particularly of tourism and education services to Asia. At the same time, inflation is low and set to remain so. Despite these positive growth stories, the RBA may still need to cut further to keep inflation on target. </span></p>
<p><span>We have long been optimists on the Australian growth outlook. A key part of this story has been our belief that monetary policy is powerful and has been well managed. </span></p>
<p><span>In short, when the mining boom was at its peak, in 2011, monetary policy settings were very tight, which held back the non- mining sectors and kept inflation contained. This meant that there was then significant scope to loosen settings when the mining boom ended, thereby rebalancing and lifting growth. The RBA cut its cash rate from a peak of 4.75% in 2011 to 2.00% and the AUD has fallen from US105 cents to under US75 cents. </span></p>
<p><span>The cut in interest rates supported a 30% rise in housing prices since mid-2012. </span></p>
<p><span>The combination of rising housing prices and low interest rates drove new building approvals to record highs in H2 2015. Last week's GDP numbers provided evidence that rising housing prices are also delivering a positive wealth effect, with the household saving rate falling from 9.1% to 7.6% over the past year. Although income growth has slowed, due to slower wages growth, rising housing prices and greater certainty about employment prospects are seeing households choose to spend more of their disposable income, particularly on services. The pick-up in the service sector is, in turn, driving a pick-up in employment. </span></p>
<p><span>The lower AUD has also supported growth by improving Australia's competitiveness. In particular, and perhaps surprisingly to some observers, this is supporting a strong rise in net services exports. Inbound tourism and international student enrolments have picked up strongly, particularly from Asia. At the same time, Australians are also choosing to take fewer international trips. </span></p>
<p><span>Net services exports have gone from being a drag on the economy of around 0.75ppts of GDP, four years ago, when the currency was high, to contributing around 0.5ppts to GDP growth over the past year. Without this swing, GDP growth of 3.0% in Q4 would be under 2.0%. Importantly, the lift in net services exports has nothing to do with the housing boom. So the rebalancing of growth is not just a shift from mining to housing. Services exports are being driven by Asia's increasing demand for tourism and international education services, helped along by the lower AUD. </span></p>
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<p>This great rebalancing act provides strong evidence that Australian monetary policy works.</p>
<p>However, the rebalancing story is not over yet and nor is the role of monetary policy. Although local growth has been solid in recent years, it has not been rapid enough to absorb all of the available spare capacity. The transition from mining- to non-mining-led growth has left GDP growth at a below-trend average of 2.4% over the past three years (even with the 3.0% y-o-y print in Q4).</p>
<p>Although the unemployment rate has fallen from 6.3% to 6.0% over the past year, it is still well above its full employment level of 5.25-5.5% and has been for four years. As a result, wages growth is weak. Indeed, even the state with the strongest economic conditions, New South Wales, is yet to see a pick-up in wage growth. Combined with low global inflation, this has meant that underlying inflation is now at the bottom edge of the RBA's 2-3% target band.</p>
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<p><span>A number of near term challenges to growth also remain. Mining investment still has further to fall. Global commodity prices also have declined further since last year and over-supply in many markets is set to keep them low. Global growth is below trend and the Asian economies are being held back by weak global trade. </span></p>
<p><span>Australia's housing boom is also cooling, much as it should, given the already substantial run-up in housing prices and residential construction. However, the end of the housing boom means it is unlikely that household consumption will continue at the same strong pace observed late last year. </span></p>
<p><span>The other challenge is the AUD. As we described above, the AUD has been a key driver of the rebalancing act and a key support for growth recently. But low global inflation, further expected rate cuts from the ECB and Bank of Japan and the markets’ doubts about whether the US Federal Reserve will hike again this year, have meant that speculative positions have turned long on the Australian dollar. </span></p>
<p><span>The currency has climbed from its low point of US69 cents in January to now trading around US74 cents. A higher Australian dollar is unhelpful for the rebalancing story and likely to put further downward pressure on already low underlying inflation. </span></p>
<p><span>So although the growth performance is impressive, given the global backdrop, the question is: will there be enough growth to keep inflation on target? At the same time, local financial conditions have been tightening, not loosening, as the AUD has moved higher and the cash rate has been steady while inflation has fallen (meaning real interest rates have increased). Effective mortgage and business lending rates have also been lifted in recent months, despite a steady RBA cash rate, as a result of regulatory changes and higher global funding costs. </span></p>
<p><span>Just to keep the same effective financial conditions settings as delivered the strong H2 GDP growth performance the RBA may have to cut further. Thankfully, with a cash rate at 2.00% and inflation low the RBA has scope to cut further to keep Australia's great rebalancing act underway. Our central case sees another 25bp cut from the RBA around mid-year (Q2). </span></p>
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Loose monetary policy is rebalancing growth: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<p>This month brought more evidence that the rebalancing act is continuing. Q1 GDP confirmed that household consumption is growing solidly, dwelling investment is in a strong upswing and resource export volumes are ramping up, as new capacity comes on line. The lift in these areas has more than offset the drag from falling mining and public investment, leaving solid GDP growth in the first quarter (0.9% q-o-q), although it was still below trend over the year (2.3% y-o-y).</p>
<p>More timely indicators provided signs that the RBA's February and May rate cuts have been feeding through to a further lift in the housing market. Housing prices rose by 9.8% y-o-y in June and building approvals reached a new record high in May. Business surveys showed improving conditions and confidence in May, which could reflect the impact of this year's rate cuts as well as the government's more pro-growth budget. On a less positive side, retail sales were quite weak in April.</p>
<p>The clearest sign of improving conditions has been in the labour market, with jobs growth running at a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.0% y-o-y in May. At this rate, jobs growth has been sufficient to keep the unemployment rate steady at 6.0% to 6.2% in recent months. The services sectors are leading job creation as mining employment declines. At the same time, however, wages growth is at a multi-decade low. This weak wages growth reflects the build- up of spare capacity in the labour market, but may also explain why jobs growth is lifting, as lower wages encourage greater hiring.</p>
<p>The lift in activity and steadying of the unemployment rate are expected to keep the RBA on hold this month. If these improving trends continue, as is our central case, we expect that the RBA will not need to deliver further cuts in this easing phase. However, low wages growth means that inflation is likely to remain benign, which is likely to leave the RBA with an 'easing bias'. The central bank is expected to continue to express concern about strong housing price growth, particularly in Sydney, and the still high level of the AUD.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-03%20at%209.12.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/07/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-03%20at%209.12.40%20AM.png" alt="" width="709" height="308"></p>
<p>Jobs growth lifting, but wage inflation is low</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Most of the activity indicators published this month showed positive results. In particular, there are increasingly convincing signs that the labour market is improving. The monthly labour force survey showed that 234k jobs have been created over the past year, implying jobs growth of 2.0% y-o-y, which has been enough to get the unemployment rate to stabilise (Chart 1 and 2). The quarterly labour market survey confirmed that although mining jobs are being cut, this is being more than offset by job creation in the services sectors. Business surveys also showed an improvement in conditions and confidence, which is likely to reflect the more pro-growth Federal budget delivered in May as well as the impact of the RBA's 50bp of rate cuts in the first half (Chart 3).</span><br><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Although timely indicators suggest a lift in domestic demand and jobs growth, wages growth is at its lowest level in at least two decades (Chart 4). To some degree, this is just part of the needed adjustment to get a lift in jobs growth. However, lower wages growth should also be expected to put downward pressure on inflation, leaving the RBA with the option of cutting rates further, or at least keeping rates on hold for longer.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-03%20at%209.15.19%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"><img src="/images/2015/07/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-03%20at%209.15.19%20AM.png" alt="" width="790" height="370"></span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/07/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-03%20at%209.16.16%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/07/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-03%20at%209.16.16%20AM.png" alt="" width="864" height="397"></p>
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<p><span>In 'wait and watch' mode </span></p>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">The combination of having already delivered 50bp of cuts in H1 and the more positive domestic numbers are expected to keep the RBA firmly on hold next week. We expect the RBA to be in 'wait and watch' mode, as it seeks more information about the full impact of the cuts it has already delivered this year.</span><br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">We expect the central bank to also express continued concern over the exuberance of the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne, where price growth is still rapid (Chart 5). While the prudential regulator has been gradually tightening micro-prudential settings, the Sydney market and parts of Melbourne are still showing excessive exuberance. On the margin, this concern is likely to keep the RBA on hold.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Working in the other direction, the RBA is likely to remain concerned about the still high level of the AUD. On our assessment, the central bank would be more comfortable with the AUD at around 68-70 USD cents (it is currently trading at 76 USD cents), so it is still about 10% higher than it would like (Chart 6). As the RBA has recently pointed out, a sustained lower currency is seen as necessary to encourage a solid lift in non-mining business investment intentions, which is the next stage of the rebalancing act.</span>
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<br><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Although developments in Greece may get a passing reference in the post-meeting statement, they are unlikely to be of particular relevance to local policy. There may, however, be an increased focus on China, given recent policy moves and volatility in the stock market.</span>
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<a href="/images/2015/07/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-03%20at%209.18.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><p><span><img src="/images/2015/07/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-03%20at%209.18.45%20AM.png" alt=""></span></p>
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<div class="column"><em>Paul Bloxham is chief economist for HSBC in Australia and New Zealand.</em></div>
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