Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Gdp Growth

soliver-smf6LQXgW9

GDP growth disappoints, sliding into "GDP per capita recession": Shane Oliver

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Households are spending more money despite growth in household income remaining low, the RBA's November domestics economic conditions report suggests.
Household consumption growth has been stable at around three percent over the last year, however growth in household income remains low.
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Goods consumption grew by 3.5 per cent over the year to the June quarter.
The strong percentage growth in expenditure on food and clothing more than offset a decline in motor vehicle sales. 
Consumption of services grew by 2.6 per cent, supported by growth in the consumption of recreation and communication services.
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There have been some sizeable upward revisions to consumption growth in recent quarters, notably to consumption of overseas travel services, which has become more complicated to measure after the discontinuation of outgoing passenger cards in mid 2017.
By state, consumption growth continues to be strongest in New South Wales and Victoria. 
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Disposable income growth has been driven by labour income, which is growing at around its fastest year-ended rate since 2012.
It is still tracking however below its long-run average.
"Housing and equity prices will weigh on household wealth," the RBA noted.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Household consumption growth stable but income growth remains low: RBA

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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0" target="_blank">Wednesday’s GDP figures</a> were good. Growth was up 0.9% in the June quarter and 3.4% over the past 12 months.
As they say in baseball: “You can’t boo a home run.” But you can ask how likely the batter is to do it next time. The detail behind the figures raises further questions.
<h2>How good were they really?</h2>
Even before we get to that, it’s worth noting than GDP per capita was up 0.5% in the quarter, amounting to a 1.8% increase over the year. That’s good, but half as much as headline growth. Per capita growth is what drives living standards.
Even on an annual basis per capita growth bounces around. The following chart shows it is usually less than 2% and only occasionally reaches 3%, but never too far from zero – even excluding the GFC.
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Growth per capita is volatile in no small part because immigration is volatile.
Standard economic theory tells us that in the long run immigration has very little impact on GDP per capita unless it drives a shift in the population’s mix of skills.
But in the short run it depresses GDP per capita because the fixed capital (such as buildings and machines) has to be shared between more workers.
Since immigration is somewhat lumpy, and the skill mix is neither obvious nor constant, there can be pretty substantial swings in GDP per capita in a high-immigration economy. At 1.6% per annum, Australia’s population growth is roughly double the OECD average, so it’s best not to get too hung up on the quarterly numbers.
<h2>Good for how long?</h2>
The larger and more pressing question in whether this quarter’s good numbers will last.
There are reasons to be sceptical. First, household expenditure was a key component of the recent growth numbers. As ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman put it:
Growth in domestic demand accounts for over half the growth in GDP, and reflected strength in household expenditure.
We’ve been sustaining strong household expenditure by saving less, but that’s unlikely to continue.
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In an economy in which heavily indebted households face mortgage rate hikes from three of the big four banks (likely to be four soon) despite no official increase in interest rates, household spending will come under pressure.
Wages growth is still languishing at around 2% (<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6345.0" target="_blank">the most recent wages price index came in at 2.1%</a>), meaning that households aren’t earning much extra income.
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Add to this a lower Australian dollar putting pressure on the price of imports –such as mobile phones, iPads and computers, to name a few – and it seems brave to predict continued robust consumer spending.
<h2>Special for how long?</h2>
It is also worth being a bit cautious about the case for Australian exceptionalism. Yes, we’ve had a run of 27 odd years of continuous economic growth. Yes, we weathered the financial crisis better than most.
But we are also part of a global economy that is yet to see the full effects of the Trump trade war. And we are subject to the same sort of pressures that other advanced economies are facing: stubbornly low wages growth despite historically low unemployment, inflation that won’t grow, and an uncertain outlook for China – our most important trading partner.
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Can we really return to the trend growth rates of the 1990s while the countries we compare ourselves with struggle? I hope so, but I doubt it.
The newly minted treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, couldn’t help but take credit for this week’s good news. Fair enough. But he might want to be cautious. Quarterly numbers have a habit of reversing themselves. And with an election not too far away it’s politically risky to tie oneself too closely to the vagaries of the macroeconomy in general and the forecasts of Treasury and the Reserve Bank in particular.
Reserve Bank Governor Phil Lowe might have mentioned that to Frydenberg in their much photographed recent meeting.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102717/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-national-accounts-show-past-performance-no-guarantee-of-future-results-102717" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Past performance of national accounts no guarantee of future results: Richard Holden

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The national accounts release has the GDP up 0.9 percent in the June quarter, after growing 1.1 percent in the March quarter.
Annual economic growth rose from 3.1 percent to 3.4 percent, the strongest growth rate in almost six years.
It's the 28th consecutive year of growth, Commsec's Craig James said.
The Australian economy expanded at its fastest pace in nearly six years - well above the consensus forecast among economists.
Economists had tipped the national accounts would show 0.7 percent in growth in the June quarter.
CommSec's Craig James says there are good reasons to expect the expansion to continue for some time to come.
"We wouldn’t quibble with the Reserve Bank’s expectation of 3.25 per cent growth during 2018/19 – already the economy is growing at a faster rate," he said.
The biggest contribution to growth came from household consumption, which was up 0.4 percent. 
The new Josh Frydenberg treasurer said the result reflected strong household consumption with spending up in 12 of 17 categories, showing the benefits of "recent strong jobs growth."
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

28th year of growth for Australian economy

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Westpac's Andrew Hanlan has cited two key events this week, the Central Bank forum being hosted by the ECB and in Australia the RBA minutes.
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Real GDP grew by 1.0% in the March quarter, lifting annual growth to 3.1% - an above trend outcome, with trend judged to be 2.7%. Non-farm GDP grew by 3.6% over the year, the strongest annual outcome since 2012. These results bring output growth more into line with that for employment, which increased by 3.5% over the year.
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/bulletin/Justin_Images/JuneRealGDOGrowth.jpg" alt="Ralk" title="GSP">
Economic conditions have been supported by a combination of global and domestic forces, leading to conditions becoming more synchronised across the state economies, namely:
<ol>
<li>The global backdrop is more favourable. World growth accelerated in 2017 to 3.8%, up from 3.2%, the strongest pace since 2011. We expect world growth to hold around this 3.8% pace in 2018, supported by the US. However, conditions in China are likely to moderate.</li>
<li>Commodity prices are up off the lows of late 2015, improving cash flows for miners and boosting government tax revenues. Going forward, we expect commodity prices to moderate as China slows and supply expands.</li>
<li>The mining investment drag is greatly diminished, albeit not quite complete.</li>
<li>Non-mining investment is trending higher, led by construction activity, to meet the needs of a fast growing population. Notably, total business investment turned the corner in 2017, up 6%, following four years of decline.</li>
<li>Public demand, a quarter of the economy, grew by a brisk 5.5% over the year, directly adding 1.3ppts to activity, with additional positive spill-over effects. Investment in an upswing (centred on transport infrastructure) and additional resources are being directed to health.</li>
<li>Exports are a growth driver, adding 0.9ppts to activity over the year, with strength in LNG (expanding capacity) and services (albeit current estimates suggest a recent consolidation).</li>
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Weaknesses remain, particularly around the consumer and housing. The consumer is vulnerable at a time of weak wages growth, high debt levels and slipping house prices. The housing sector is cooling as lending conditions tighten, with prices easing back from recent highs. Auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne have slipped further to now be at below average levels.
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Consumer spending is choppy (up only 0.3% in the March quarter) and ‘slightly below trend’ (up 2.9% over the year). Even the current pace of consumer spending appears unsustainable over the forecast period – we expect a slowing to 2.5% for 2018 and 2019. Spending has been supported by a drop in the savings rate, declining to 2.1% from 4.0% a year ago, with the scope for a further run-down diminished. In addition, the turnaround in housing price growth, from 11.3%yr nationally a year ago to –1.5%yr currently, could see negative spill-overs for consumer demand, although ‘wealth effect’ boosts look to have been very muted through the price upturn (see p14).
Total labour income grew by a robust 5.1% over the past year, but this was largely reliant on a very strong hiring burst that looks to have been temporary. Wages, as measured by average compensation of non-farm employees, grew by only 1.6% over the year, to be flat in real terms. Employment increased by 3.5% in the year to the March quarter 2018, twice population growth, in part a catch-up following a hiring pause around the July 2016 Federal election. Jobs growth has subsequently slowed in 2018, to 1.2% annualised for the initial five months - for the full year we expect an increase of around 1.8%.
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As to home building activity, this contracted by 5.0% in 2017, consistent with the decline in dwelling approvals from the historic highs of 2016, largely centred on high rise projects. This downturn has further to run with the contraction accelerating into 2019 after a near-term consolidation early in 2018. Large increases in new supply and a marked slowdown in sales to foreigners are weighing on the outlook for residential building.
In summary, key positives around pubic demand, business construction investment and exports will provide a solid base for overall economic activity However, with weaknesses in consumer spending and housing we expect GDP growth to moderate to 2.7% in the year to December 2018 and then slip to a below trend 2.5% for December 2019.
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-hanlan/3/222/430" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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Central banks in focus this week: Westpac video update

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The Australian economy as measured by GDP grew by 1.0% in the March quarter of 2018, which was above consensus estimates for a 0.9% lift and indicates that the economy started the year off strongly. Annual growth rose to 3.1% (from 2.4% - see chart below) which is running above estimates for Australia’s growth potential (which is around 2¾%). But, the strength in GDP growth over first quarter is unlikely to be repeated again in the June quarter. Australian GDP has had a tendency to run hot and cold lately. Looking back at history, the last three strong GDP prints (around 0.9% or 1.0%) have been followed by a weaker outcome in the following quarter which is often caused by “one-off” impacts like strong net exports or an inventory build that are then unwound in the following period.
But, the Australian economy is still expected to hold up over the near-term and there is little risk of a recession. The GDP data also shows a slow trend up in productivity growth, which is positive for living standards. Compared to our global peers, Australia’s headline growth profile also looks favourable (US at around 2.5% currently, Eurozone around 2% and Japan near 2%) although much of this growth “outperformance” can be explained by higher population growth in Australia.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/6/GDP-Growth.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge. </a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/6/GDP-Growth.jpg" alt=""> 
The main points from the March quarter GDP data are: 
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Continued weakness in consumer spending. Consumer spending rose by 0.3% in the quarter (contributing 0.2 percentage points to growth with retail volumes flat over the quarter).The weakness in consumers is well known – real wages growth is running flat, the savings ratio is now very low at just 2.1% and debt levels are very high. It is difficult to see households gaining confidence to run down their savings rate further in the current environment of low wages growth, slowing wealth accumulation (as home price growth weakens) and high debt levels. Proposed income tax cuts from the government are not large enough to change this outlook. Its worth noting that while the National Accounts reports “compensation of employees” as being up a strong 5.1% over the last year, this mainly reflects the strong employment growth of the last year as “average compensation per employee” is up just 1.6% over the last year consistent with other measures of low wages growth. </li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Residential construction contributed 0.1 percentage points to growth. Housing construction has passed its peak but building approvals continue to run at elevated levels compared to recent years so housing investment is still making small contributions to growth. Housing investment will slow over the next year or two though, but large detractions from growth are unlikely.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Underlying business investment (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) made no contribution to growth, with non-residential building down, engineering construction up marginally and machinery &amp; equipment spending up. Business investment is slowly lifting in Australia, as the mining investment decline has nearly finished and non-mining investment is improving. There is still more downside for mining investment, but a lift in non-mining expenditure is providing an offset. However, the lift in non-mining investment has been slow and very gradual and capital spending intensions data released last week suggests that this is likely to remain the case. Non-mining investment is still well below its historical average as a share of the economy, so there is still plenty of capacity to lift non-mining investment growth. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Underlying government spending (which takes into account asset transfers between the private and public sector) was up strongly again and contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth. Public infrastructure spending remains very high, with both the Federal &amp; State governments allocating more funds towards infrastructure over recent periods which will continue contributing to GDP growth.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Inventories contributed 0.2 percentage points in the March quarter and this is unlikely to be sustained in the June quarter. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth with strong export growth. The outlook for export growth is still positive, thanks to resource exports and global demand for Australian resources and as service exports like tourism and education continue to grow. But the contribution to growth is likely to slow going forward and it can be volatile from quarter to quarter.</li>
</ul>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="x_MsoNormal">
Inflation pressures and wages remain subdued with the household consumption deflator (an alternative measure of inflation) up by 1.6% year on year which is below the rate of inflation as measured by the CPI and average compensation per employee is up by just 1.6% over the past year – below the 2.0% wages growth recorded in the wage price index (this is due to jobs growth being faster for low paid jobs than for high paid jobs).</li>
</ul>
Implications
While the March quarter GDP data shows that the Australian economy started the year strongly, we still expect Australian growth in 2018 to be a little below the RBA’s forecast of “a bit above 3%” because of a constrained consumer and a slowing housing market. And while non-mining business investment is rising, public infrastructure spending is surging and the labour market is strong, there are few signs of noticeable cost pressures as the economy is still running below its capacity as indicated by high levels of labour market underutilisation.
Growth needs to be stronger on a sustained basis to work through this spare capacity and lift wages and inflation. We remain of the view that the constrained inflation backdrop will keep the Reserve Bank on hold until early 2020 at least, when we see the central bank starting to lift interest rates. But, given the weakness in home prices and the negative wealth effect that will flow from that its premature to rule out the next move in official rates being a cut.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
 
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March quarter GDP solid but consumers still weak, few signs of inflation & wages pressure

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The following charts describes what the Reserve Bank of Australia knows about Australia's economy especially GDP growth and inflation:
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-1.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-2.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-3.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/06/RBA%20CHART-4.jpg" alt="">
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