For the first time in a long time, Australia's inflation story is starting to look more like a landing than a fight.

The latest Consumer Price Index figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed annual inflation eased to four per cent in May, down from 4.2 per cent in April. On the surface, that might not seem like a major move. Inflation remains above the Reserve Bank's target range and some categories continue to record stubborn price growth.

But the significance of this result lies less in where inflation sits today and more in what it means for where interest rates are likely heading next.

The biggest takeaway is that inflation continues to move in the right direction.

Markets had been bracing for another sticky result after a period where progress appeared to stall. Instead, headline inflation came in softer than expected, helped by falling fuel prices and easing transport costs. Annual transport inflation halved from 6.6 per cent in April to 3.3 per cent in May, while automotive fuel prices fell 11.9 per cent during the month following lower oil prices and the impact of reduced fuel excise measures.

While petrol prices don't solve Australia's affordability challenges, they are one of the most visible and immediate costs for consumers. Falling fuel costs feed through the economy quickly, helping ease pressure on household budgets and business operating expenses.

The ABS data also showed headline inflation is now sitting at its lowest annual level in several months, reinforcing the broader trend that price growth is gradually moderating.

That trend is important because it aligns with what many economists and lenders have been saying for the last month.

Prior to this week's inflation data, ANZ, NAB and Commonwealth Bank had all shifted their forecasts, now believing the Reserve Bank had likely reached the peak of the interest rate cycle. Following the May inflation release, ANZ reaffirmed that view.

In its latest economic update, ANZ said it expects quarterly trimmed mean inflation to come in at 3.7 per cent for the June quarter, slightly below the Reserve Bank's forecast of 3.8 per cent. Importantly, the bank said that outcome, when combined with slowing economic activity, "supports our view that the cash rate has peaked".

The Reserve Bank has spent the better part of three years attempting to bring inflation under control through higher interest rates. If Australia's major banks are correct and rates have now peaked, the conversation shifts from how much higher rates could go to when they might begin coming down.

Westpac's caution comes from underlying inflation. The trimmed mean, the measure most closely watched by the Reserve Bank, increased from 3.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent annually. Housing inflation remains elevated at 6.5 per cent, reflecting ongoing increases in rents, electricity costs and new dwelling construction.

Electricity prices remain particularly problematic, rising 21.1 per cent over the past year following the removal of government rebates.

Housing construction costs are also showing signs of renewed pressure. ANZ noted new dwelling costs rose 0.9 per cent in May and are now running at an annualised pace of 8.6 per cent over the past three months. Builders continue to face higher labour, fuel and material costs, a reminder that inflationary pressures have not completely disappeared.

Housing affordability has deteriorated largely because of higher interest rates rather than higher property prices alone. Even modest reductions in mortgage rates would improve borrowing capacity, increase buyer confidence and reduce repayment pressure on existing homeowners.

While August is far from a certainty, the latest inflation result has strengthened the view that the next move in rates is more likely to be down than up. For borrowers, buyers and the development sector, that alone represents a significant shift from the conversation that dominated much of the past two years.

Joel Robinson

The inflation result the property market was waiting for

Commercial property group FiveX is doubling down on its move into the residential space.

The group, founded by Joshua and Marko Berger more than five decades ago, has followed up its plans for a 39-storey tower on North Sydney's Alfred Street with a proposed 61-storey tower in Chatswood.

The new tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/815-pacific-highway-chatswood-nsw-2067">815 Pacific Highway</a>, which would be one of the tallest proposed in Chatswood in recent years, will comprise 490 apartments, 76 of which will be dedicated affordable housing and managed by Evolve Housing for a minimum of 15 years.

The project will replace the long-standing Panorama Building, originally known as the BMA Tower, a 14-storey office building completed in 1972 and designed by Hungarian-born architect Hugo Stossel. At the time of its completion, the building was the tallest structure in Chatswood and became a local landmark due to its distinctive curved form and external glass lift.

<img alt="FiveX" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="956bd299-3864-47a0-8ea6-162b5524c5d8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-24%20at%201.02.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=EWx7teUr7RcYrI9mgRytwppwt5AdUDtb" />

fjcstudio is behind the designs. Its Architectural Design Report argues the ageing commercial building no longer reflects Chatswood's role as one of Sydney's key strategic centres and that the site is ideally positioned to support significantly higher residential density.

"The site is located at the heart of Chatswood, within the TOD accelerated rezoning area that supports higher density development around the new Metro station," the report states.

"The site's role within a walkable 400-metre radius catchment is where housing, employment, retail and community uses are encouraged to cluster in support of transit-oriented living."

<img alt="fjc" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8d198f5e-cc71-4175-9357-be6ec7207473" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-24%20at%201.18.27%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=5WUFc3IYBPvhQMBUYLCsjJhzdcVeYodE" />

The proposal has undergone two rounds of review by the NSW State Design Review Panel, with the design evolving through an extensive assessment process focused on design excellence, public realm outcomes, residential amenity and the integration of affordable housing.

fjcstudio says the residential component provides a diverse mix of apartment typologies, supporting a broad demographic and contributing to housing supply in a highly accessible location close to major transport, employment and retail infrastructure.

The application follows FiveX's plans for a 39-storey tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/275-alfred-street-north-north-sydney-nsw-2060">275 Alfred Street</a>, which it <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/275-alfred-street-north-north-sydney-nsw-2060">submitted through the same NSW Government pathway</a> in December. That's for 184 apartments.

Recent activity in Chatswood includes Hyecorp launching its Archer Street project, Celine, and Develotek securing approval for a 34-storey tower.

First look: FiveX targets Chatswood skyline with 61-storey tower after North Sydney plans

Bridgewell Capital and SLD Development seem to be bullish on the Killara apartment market, filing plans for a second new development next to the Killara Golf Club.

The new plans are for 79 apartments across an amalgamated 4,989 sqm site on Buckingham Road.&nbsp;The project has been designed by BKA Architecture and is being assessed under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing and Infill Affordable Housing reforms. It is just 300 metres from&nbsp;Killara train station.

The majority of the apartments are three-bedrooms (46), with 23 two-bedroom apartments, seven one-beds, and three four-bedroom apartments. 17 of the apartments&nbsp;are proposed as affordable housing, representing 15 per cent of the project's gross floor area, allowing the development to access additional floor space and height incentives available under the NSW Housing SEPP.

There will be 131 resident and visitor car spaces, and more than&nbsp;1,450 sqm of communal open space. Landscaped areas would account for approximately 45 per cent of the site.

<img alt="Killara" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="75ef5ef7-a53b-4932-a8f1-38f63169eec9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-24%20at%2011.04.00%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=d_lG1A1StDaMQilljy25Fr8SF1BnAmKE" />

The site currently contains three detached dwellings and occupies a prominent position on the eastern side of Buckingham Road, with frontage to an area that has already begun transitioning towards higher-density housing. Existing apartment buildings of up to six storeys surround the site, while the Killara Golf Club forms its southern boundary.

The application has been lodged as a State Significant Development due to the affordable housing component and the scale of the project.

According to the design report, the proposal has been shaped by the area's evolving planning framework, which is encouraging greater housing density around transport infrastructure.

"The site sits along a growth area anticipated to undergo transformation in line with broader trends across New South Wales, driven by the implementation of the Low and Mid-Rise and Transport-Oriented Development State Housing Policies," the report states.

"Being within 800 metres walking distance to Killara Train Station, the project seeks to provide high-quality apartments designed for various family sizes, located in a vibrant landscaped setting."

The Upper North Shore suburb has become one of the most closely watched testing grounds for the NSW Government's housing reforms. A number of developers have moved quickly to consolidate sites around railway stations across suburbs including Killara, Lindfield, Gordon and Roseville, where the new planning settings are creating opportunities for apartment developments that would previously have been difficult to achieve.

The likes of Aqualand, Hyecorp, Holdmark and Vermont Property Group have projects in the region.

Bridgewell has several developments in the pipeline. Last September they submitted plans for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/bridgewell-capital-seeks-55-apartment-project-in-killara">55 new apartments</a> at&nbsp;23-25 Lorne Avenue in Killara, just the other side of Regimental Park from their new project. In May they filed for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-bridgewell-plots-120-apartments-and-childcare-centre-in-maroubra-town-centre">120 apartments in Maroubra</a>.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

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First look: Bridgewell, SLD Development double down on Killara Golf Club

Sydney developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-element">Central Element</a>&nbsp;is doubling down in Drummoyne, lodging plans for a boutique apartment development on St Georges Crescent, only one-kilometre down the road from its first Drummoyne development, Bianca.

The new project at 15A-21 St Georges Crescent,&nbsp;a&nbsp;1,701sqm north-facing site overlooking Iron Cove, will have 45 apartmnts across 10 levels. Eight of the units will be dedicated to affordable housing.

The site sits within walking distance of Drummoyne Village, Birkenhead Point, ferry services and the Bay Run, and offers harbour views towards the Sydney Harbour Bridge and CBD skyline.

Designed by MHN Design Union, the development will deliver a mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments, alongside resident amenity including a gym, landscaped communal open space and three levels of basement parking.

The project has been lodged under the NSW Government's Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms, with Drummoyne Village identified as a town centre capable of accommodating additional housing supply.

Central Element acquired the site earlier this year as part of its continued expansion across Sydney's eastern suburbs, lower north shore and inner west.

The developer's current pipeline includes luxury apartment projects Pearl Bondi and a separate development on Lamrock Avenue in Bondi, a residential project in Barry Street, Neutral Bay, and a mixed-use seniors living community in Greenwich.

Central Element Managing Director Nathan Chivas said the project would address a shortage of new owner-occupier housing opportunities in Drummoyne.

"While we're seeing a significant shift across Canada Bay as major infrastructure investment, population growth and planning reform drive a new chapter for the region, in suburbs like Drummoyne there remains a genuine shortage of new boutique luxury housing opportunities for owner occupiers," Chivas said.

"Sites of this nature are increasingly difficult to secure, particularly those that combine a north-facing aspect with direct water outlook. Our St Georges Crescent project responds directly to the market demand, offering a level of exclusivity, outlook and lifestyle in the highly sought after suburb."

The development application has been lodged with the City of Canada Bay Council, with the project expected to launch to market in early 2027.

&nbsp;

Central Element seeks second Drummoyne apartment development

The NSW Government has unveiled plans that could deliver around 1,300 new homes across Nowra and Kiama, continuing its push to unlock housing in well-located regional centres along the South Coast.

The proposals, now on public exhibition, would pave the way for around 830 homes in Nowra and a further 450 homes in Kiama, while also introducing affordable housing requirements and increased building heights in key locations.

The larger of the two proposals is centred on Nowra, where the NSW Government is seeking to rezone land within the Mandalay and Riverfront precincts.

The Mandalay sub-precinct, located close to Shoalhaven Memorial Hospital, Nowra Library and the city's aquatic centre, could accommodate around 530 new homes. Around 30 per cent of housing delivered on Homes NSW-owned land would be dedicated to social and affordable housing, equating to roughly 100 homes. Building heights would increase from the current two-storey limit to between three and six storeys.

A separate rezoning proposal for the Nowra Riverfront Precinct would unlock a further 377 homes while creating stronger connections between the Shoalhaven River and the CBD. The plans include building heights ranging from five to 12 storeys, floor space ratios of up to 2:1 and a requirement for two per cent affordable housing.

Together, the two proposals would deliver more than 900 homes across the broader Nowra area, reinforcing the city's role as one of regional NSW's key growth centres.

The housing push builds on previous infrastructure commitments in the Shoalhaven, including government funding aimed at supporting thousands of future homes in West Nowra through upgrades to water and wastewater infrastructure.

Further north, the NSW Government is also progressing plans for the former Kiama Depot site, a two-hectare parcel near Kiama's town centre.

The rezoning proposal would transform the former industrial site into a residential community capable of delivering up to 450 homes. Buildings would range between six and eight storeys, with at least 10 per cent of homes allocated as affordable housing. The proposal also includes approximately 600 parking spaces and improved walking and cycling connections.

Planning Minister Paul Scully said the proposals are designed to increase housing supply in locations close to jobs, transport and services.

"For too long, families have struggled to find somewhere to live, and activating underutilised sites allows us to deliver the new homes these families need," Scully said.

"The Minns Labor Government is getting on with the job of unlocking well-located sites close to transport, jobs, and town centres and building the homes our communities need.

"These rezonings are about removing barriers to housing delivery and making sure land is put to better use so more people can find a place to call home within the communities they choose."

The latest rezonings form part of the Minns Government's broader strategy to accelerate housing delivery across NSW, particularly in established centres where existing infrastructure can support additional population growth.

Community consultation on the proposals is now underway, with feedback set to inform the final planning controls before the rezonings are determined.

Around 1,300 new homes earmarked for Nowra and Kiama as NSW Government pushes housing supply

Economic Data

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Greater Sydney leads the way in the wages growth test tube, with its annual average unemployment rate falling to the lowest level since 2008, at just 4½ per cent in April 2018. 
Total employment in Sydney has exploded an ear-splitting +128,600 higher over the past year alone to a record high of 2¾ million.  
Just to put that in some perspective, only three years earlier total employment in Sydney was 2½ million, so the harbour city has been creating jobs at a truly thunderous rate. 
From an unemployment rate perspective Adelaide now takes out the most improved award, although the underlying labour force metrics in the South Australian capital are a tad uninspiring at best. 
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_j_1zgWgnfg/WwYbYRUTOCI/AAAAAAAAqL0/uvZVa8OylMI3l5Wrt6HEPKM9YBPoNL8CgCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_j_1zgWgnfg/WwYbYRUTOCI/AAAAAAAAqL0/uvZVa8OylMI3l5Wrt6HEPKM9YBPoNL8CgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="368" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1413"></a>
In somewhat brighter news for employment hunters, the median duration of job search has improved very steadily over the past year, and that now includes for Greater Perth, after a very lean run.
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hUe7QaB3LSI/WwYbYOfBusI/AAAAAAAAqLw/s2rvw9dAuRs81kh1LcEN_GEQ9pxjG6eZgCLcBGAs/s1600/A2.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hUe7QaB3LSI/WwYbYOfBusI/AAAAAAAAqLw/s2rvw9dAuRs81kh1LcEN_GEQ9pxjG6eZgCLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1379"></a>
Finally for today, S&amp;P's Prime SPIN mortgage arrears came in at 1.18 per cent in March 2018, broadly unchanged from 1.16 per cent in February (and from 1.16 per cent a year earlier). 
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nI-KATQcaLI/WwYevbne3QI/AAAAAAAAqMc/9WVlNyzJbGMvR_TyUvhzBSvAmOIXsI8TwCEwYBhgL/s640/S%2526P%2Bactual.jpg" width="640" height="380" style="font-size: 12.16px;" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1360">
From a macro perspective, then, nothing meaningful to report in terms of mortgage stress. 
Around the traps, only the figures Western Australia (2.37 per cent) revealed any actual signs of mortgage stress, with arrears either benign or falling in most states and territories. 
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2YBJy0jghMQ/WwYd_try7VI/AAAAAAAAqMU/c9lwxxF1AvAAIWCG2mQSDxyxLcCne0WvgCEwYBhgL/s1600/sanp%2Bpicture.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2YBJy0jghMQ/WwYd_try7VI/AAAAAAAAqMU/c9lwxxF1AvAAIWCG2mQSDxyxLcCne0WvgCEwYBhgL/s400/sanp%2Bpicture.jpg" width="400" height="370" data-original-height="1483" data-original-width="1600"></a>
 
Source: S&amp;P Global 
Stress at the margin 
There's a lot of debate about mortgage stress at the moment, with some people seemingly almost willing the figures to run higher. 
The truth is the picture is quite mixed around the regions.  
For most homeowners that have been in the market for some years, stress is very low with mortgage rates hitting some of the lowest levels in living memory, and this is reflected the unprecedented level of mortgage buffers that we saw in 2017.
But there are some parts of the country, including Perth, Gladstone, and a number of others, where employment opportunities have either been sparse or very sparse. 
Accordingly there have been some marked shifts in internal migration, as workers relocate to cities where employment growth has been stronger, most notably Melbourne in recent times.
In some cases, where households are in negative equity this may not be possible, and in it's in these situations where mortgage stress can become punishing. 
Fortunately there are relatively few pockets of Australia where negative equity is widespread, with many of the underperforming high-rise apartments owned by investors (including non-resident investors). 
Overall, while the picture remains mixed around the country, it has been consistent with a steadily improving labour market.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Sydney leads the country in wage growth: Pete Wargent

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Australia’s home loan affordability improved by 4.4 percent over the past 12 months, and was at 32.9 index points in March 2017, according to PRDnationwide’s latest figures.
Topping the Australian Home Loan Affordability Indicator was Australian Capital Territory (ACT) with an index reading of 49.7 points, well above the average of 32.9 points. 
In terms of increase, the Northern Territory led the way with 10.2% improved affordability (47.4 index points), followed by Victoria at 6.6% (30.8 index points), according to the PRDnationwide Key Economic Indicators.
The Q3 2017 Key Economic Indicators are a snapshot of the current state of affairs from an economic and property perspective, according to PRD and includes such statistics as  the number of loans to first home buyers, home loan affordability index, dwelling approvals and standard variable loan among others.
New South Wales, with an index reading of 27.7 index points, was the lowest. However, home loan affordability in NSW also grew by 3.7% over the past 12 months and is on par with Queensland (3.6%).
Consumer sentiment is a key indication of the general population’s confidence in the economy, whereby a higher index point reading suggests consumers are more willing to spend rather than save. 
Consumer sentiment remained under the positive line (100 index points) in August, currently at 95.5 index points. This was 5.5% lower since the last 12 months, and the lowest since then suggesting consumers are cautious, and  more willing to save than spend. 
Among other measures, the standard variable loan fell slightly to 5.2% this quarter, which PRD says should help in building consumer confidence over the next few months.  
Meanwhile, weekly median income also grew 2.2 percent in the 12 months to March to $1,688.
Median income rose in all states, with South Australia leading the way with a 4.1% increase to $1,545 per week. 
Consumer price index has decreased to 1.9 index points, suggesting goods and services are more affordable when compared to the previous quarter. This is good news for household income, and should further assist in increasing consumer sentiment.
However, affordability for first home buyers continues to be a concern, according to the real estate agency.
Over the past 12 months the number of loans to first home buyers in Australia rose to 20,677, an increase of 1.4 percent from 20,401.
Surprisingly the number of first home buyers have decreased the most in Tasmania, by 11.1% over the past 12 months, attributed to the increasing number of interstate investors taking advantage of Tasmania’s lower median property prices.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Home loan affordability improved in 12 months to March: PRDnationwide

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Last week saw a slew of economic data released in the US, Australia, and China.
Perhaps the most carefully watched was the US employment report, showing that the US economy added 151,000 jobs last month, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9 percent.
This was a solid, not stellar result. But interestingly, the August report is notorious for being revised upward in later months. So the final number could come in higher if recent history is a guide.
The reason the jobs number was so closely watched was because many people – including yours truly – thought that another 250,000-ish gain would lead the Fed to a 25 basis point rate hike at their next meeting. That move by the Fed is still definitely possible, but the news lowered the odds a bit.
In another positive signal about the US economic recovery, the Conference Board’s consumer-confidence index rose to 101.1 in August, up from 96.7 in July.
Also positive was the Australian business investment plans for 2016-17. It beat expectations at $105 billion, although still down nearly 10% on the prior year.
ABS figures revealed a sharp jump in apartment approvals, with the July figure coming in at 11,393 – more than 15% higher than the previous year. This helped offset the 3% year-on-year decline in housing approvals. Still, apartment approvals in particular are lumpy, so it’s dangerous to read too much in to one month’s number.
On the less positive side, Australian retail trade figures were flat in July, putting the year-on-year increase at a modest 2.7%. This is on the back of just a 0.1% rise in June.
There was good news out of China, with the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) up to 50.4, the best result since October 2014, and up from 50.0 the months before, also beating market expectations.
All in all this was a fairly positive week for global economies (especially if you forget about the basket case which is Europe).
There will be a good deal of central-bank watching over coming weeks, though. Philip Lowe takes over as governor of the RBA, and Guy Debelle was announced as his deputy – an excellent choice.
September 20-21 is the Fed’s Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting, which will be telling about the future path of interest rates – both in the US and Australia.
If the Fed hikes that will put downward pressure on the Australian dollar. The RBA seems uncomfortable with the current level of the local unit, and they would probably welcome a weakening, which would give them more wiggle room on their own cash rate.
And although it wasn’t “data” exactly, Prime Minister Malcolm Turbull recently reminded us of the benefits of free trade, in the leadup to the G20 Summit in Hangkhou. His admonition that “One important way in which the G20 summit can promote open trade policies is by assisting members to do a better job of measuring and communicating the benefits,” is well taken as populism seems increasingly the political order of the day around the world.
At least one piece of positive news surrounded the event, with China and the US ratifying the Paris climate deal on the eve of the summit.
Action on climate change and a boost for free trade would make for a very successful summit. Let’s hope our PM supports the former, not just the latter.
Richard Holden is professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW Australia and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">here</a>.
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