Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

Joel Robinson

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

A new 25-storey apartment tower proposed for Mercer Street would push Geelong’s western gateway skyline higher, with Morphy Birrell Property Group lodging plans for a project directly beside one of the city’s most significant heritage streetscapes.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">FK</a>-designed development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/65-67-mercer-street-geelong-vic-3220">65-67 Mercer Street</a> has now been referred to Victoria’s Planning Minister. The site sits opposite the Geelong rail corridor and immediately south of the heritage-listed St Peter and Paul’s Catholic Church and Ashby Hall precinct.

Rather than compete with the neighbouring ecclesiastical buildings, the proposal adopts a sculpted podium intended to reference the materiality and scale of the heritage context. Planning documents note the design draws cues from the “dark stone brick” church and surrounding masonry buildings, while the tower above transitions into a softer, curved form oriented toward Corio Bay and the Geelong waterfront.

<img alt="First look: Morphy Birrell Property Group targets 25-storey Geelong tower beside landmark church precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b797d10c-d4a6-47af-b8df-1aeaa3b382be" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/public%20square.png?VersionId=QGIpcz1x1hKB6lQLl2iobyHqb6PS2Ztc" />

The development forms “Stage 5” of Morphy Birrell Property Group’s broader Mercer Street precinct strategy, following the completion of the 21-storey Miramar tower on Cavendish Street and several additional approved redevelopment stages nearby. Planning consultants Ratio said the proposal “represents an exemplary development outcome” aligned with the strategic ambitions for Central Geelong’s continued urban renewal.

The mixed-use project would replace an existing low-rise commercial building and surface parking area on the 3,320 sqm corner site. FK’s urban context report describes the proposal as a residential development comprising apartments, resident amenities, commercial space, and integrated landscaping positioned to maximise bay views and northern sunlight access.

Renders show a deeply articulated tower with curved balconies stepping above a lower masonry podium that frames a landscaped forecourt facing Mercer Street. The design intentionally preserves sightlines toward the adjacent church buildings, with the podium scaled to reinforce the heritage edge before the tower recedes upward.

<img alt="First look: Morphy Birrell Property Group targets 25-storey Geelong tower beside landmark church precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2bdca91e-66f7-4ac7-8baa-2f93bd5b564e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/geelong%20site.png?VersionId=QOhbino4ZgzKYw5dW3QE14E.2yq.Sv87" />

The planning report highlights the site’s strategic location within 400 metres of key Geelong destinations including Cunningham Pier, the Geelong Station precinct, Deakin University, and the convention centre. Bus services run directly along Mercer Street, while the Corio Bay foreshore sits around 100 metres north of the site.

The proposal arrives amid accelerating redevelopment across central Geelong, where planning policy continues to encourage higher-density housing close to transport infrastructure and the waterfront. Mercer Street in particular has emerged as a focal point for taller apartment development due to its proximity to Geelong Station, the bay, and major civic infrastructure.

Morphy Birrell Property Group targets 25-storey Geelong tower beside landmark church precinct

Development giant&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hamton">Hamton</a> and joint venture partner Hostplus have revealed the next residential stage of their $3 billion Moonee Valley Park masterplan, lodging plans for 512 more apartments within the precinct on surplus racecourse land at 110 Wilson Street, Moonee Ponds.

The proposed development, dubbed&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/trackside-house-110-wilson-street-moonee-ponds-vic-3039">Trackside Gardens</a>&nbsp;in the planning application, follows the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/vic/first-look-exclusive-hamton-and-hostplus-reveal-sixth-stage-of-moonee-valley-park-masterplan">recent unveiling of the sixth-stage Cox Place Precinct</a> and continues the long-running transformation of the Moonee Valley Racecourse into one of Melbourne’s largest urban renewal projects.

Positioned on the north-eastern edge of the racecourse adjacent to CityLink, Trackside Gardens will comprise three residential buildings rising between 61.8 metres and 86.4 metres within a heavily landscaped precinct shaped by Hamton’s Nature Based Cities framework.

The project forms part of the broader Moonee Valley Park redevelopment being delivered by Hamton, Hostplus and the Moonee Valley Racing Club, which is reshaping the 40-hectare racecourse site into a mixed-use neighbourhood with housing, retail, commercial space, hotels, parkland and community infrastructure.

Trackside Gardens sits separately to the recently proposed Cox Place Precinct, a five-building stage comprising around 1,100 residences, two build-to-rent buildings, two build-to-sell towers, retail, office space, and a hotel overlooking the racetrack. Together, the projects continue to accelerate housing delivery across the precinct.

<img alt="First look: Hamton expands Moonee Valley Park masterplan with 512-home Trackside Gardens precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5fc1941e-52d3-41c6-abc4-0f13fe8ae5ea" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/DA%20Edits%20%281%29.png?VersionId=7qwRHq5dcvXWNot2hNOgoQhN2GIWudNK" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dko-architecture">DKO Architecture</a> with landscape architecture by Tract, Trackside Gardens has been conceived as a botanical-style residential precinct prioritising canopy planting, communal green space, and vertical landscaping.

“The architectural vision for the proposed development centres around buildings in a botanical park setting that champions the important role of nature,” the planning submission states.

“The proposal incorporates principles of biophilic design, with landscape and environmentally sustainable development influencing the ultimate design response of the buildings and prioritising the ground plane to ensure a high amenity for both occupants and visitors.”&nbsp;

Trackside Gardens will deliver 512 apartments across the three buildings, alongside 518 basement car spaces and 523 bicycle spaces. Around 20 per cent affordable housing is proposed across the broader North East Precinct, equating to around 158 dwellings.&nbsp;

The affordable housing component will be concentrated within the Wilson East building, while the remaining apartments are expected to be delivered as build-to-sell residences.

Trackside Gardens has been designed around Hamton’s Nature Based Cities initiative, founded by Executive Chair Paul Hameister OAM in partnership with the University of Melbourne, Urbis, Ark Resources and Tract. The initiative promotes integrating higher-density urban development with significant biodiversity, tree canopy and landscape outcomes.

<img alt="First look: Hamton expands Moonee Valley Park masterplan with 512-home Trackside Gardens precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="89353449-7b3c-42fd-8fd8-8bf64a5ef80f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_4.png?VersionId=X8jRt0P2L7fIWjLhfX6gPknXToXIBeLj" />

A comprehensive landscape strategy would introduce deep soil planting, vertical greening, communal gardens, and new pedestrian links throughout the site.

Planning documents state the development is targeting a 5 Star Green Star Buildings rating, a 7.5-star average NatHERS rating, and “Exemplary” Nature Based Cities certification.&nbsp;

The proposal joins an expanding pipeline of approved and proposed buildings within Moonee Valley Park, including the recently launched Eveline apartments and the approved Grandstand North and South towers.

Hamton has increasingly focused on precinct-scale, nature-led communities across Melbourne’s middle-ring suburbs, with projects spanning Hawthorn, Kew, and Moonee Ponds.

Hampton unveils Trackside Gardens, latest stage of $3 billion Moonee Valley Park masterplan

The Paul Gedoun-led <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ss-projects">S&amp;S Group</a> has achieved another milestone in its $1 billion transformation of Rainbow Bay on the southern Gold Coast with the completion of the company’s third project in four years, the $160 million <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a> residences.

Delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hutchinson-builders">Hutchinson Builders</a> and designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cottee-parker-architects">Cottee Parker Architects</a>, Esprit buyers have now moved into the 94 apartments across two interconnected buildings at 217-227 Boundary Street.

The successful settlement of Esprit marks another astounding chapter in the S&amp;S story, which launched its highly successful Flow apartments three years ago and created its own ultra-luxury branded fingerprint on an area craving new luxury residences.

Most early purchasers have secured gains of well over $1 million since the project launched in 2021.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102921 project_image_fid=172129]

S&amp;S Projects Founding Director Paul Gedoun said the completion of Esprit reflects sustained demand for premium apartments in tightly held coastal locations.&nbsp; 
&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 
“Esprit has attracted buyers seeking a combination of quality design, considered amenity and a location that is becoming increasingly difficult to replicate,” said Gedoun.

“We identified some years ago that Rainbow Bay is a unique market where supply of luxury residences is limited, and we see the settlements in Esprit further underpinning this thinking - that for both owner-occupiers and investors.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102921 project_image_fid=172174]

A key feature of the development is ‘Club Esprit’, a 1,000sqm residents-only rooftop level combining wellness and recreation, believed to be a first for the Gold Coast, and which is fast becoming a signature of the S&amp;S brand.

Positioned to capture views across Snapper Rocks, Rainbow Bay and the Tweed River, the rooftop includes a 25-metre lap pool, gym, yoga lawn, sauna and steam facilities, ice bath, private dining spaces, outdoor cinema and landscaped areas for residents.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/pezet-matheson">Pezet Matheson</a> Director Jayde Pezet, who led the sales campaign for Esprit and S&amp;S’s Flow and Awaken apartments, said the project’s performance reflects both the strength of the product and the depth of demand for premium apartments on the southern Gold Coast.&nbsp;

“In some cases, we’ve seen values double since launch, which is a clear reflection of how tightly held Rainbow Bay has become and the level of demand for well-executed projects in this market,” said Pezet.&nbsp;

“Buyers recognised early what S&amp;S Projects was delivering here, and that conviction has been rewarded as the project has progressed towards completion.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102921 project_image_fid=214819]

Esprit offers a mix of two- three and four-bedroom apartments and sits within walking distance of the beachfront, cafés and local amenities, reinforcing its appeal as both a lifestyle and investment destination.

The project is the third completed by S&amp;S Projects in Rainbow Bay, following Flow Residences and Awaken Residences, which together have contributed to the suburb’s emergence as one of the Gold Coast’s most sought-after coastal pockets. &nbsp;

S&amp;S Projects is continuing its investment in the area with Radia, a $215 million development currently under construction.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102921 project_image_fid=172175]

Gedoun said the completion of Esprit signals continued confidence in the southern Gold Coast market.&nbsp;

“We’ve seen strong interest in well-located, high-quality apartments, particularly in areas where future development opportunities are limited."

“That’s been a key factor in the performance of Esprit and the broader Rainbow Bay market”.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102921]

Owners move in as Esprit completes at Rainbow Bay

Debt

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
 
After two decades equating budget surpluses with good economic management, it might seem convenient that the federal government has <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/speeches/speech-australian-chamber-commerce-and-industry-canberra">changed its fiscal strategy</a> just before the budget to focus on jobs over keeping the deficit in check.
But it’s the right move. The world has changed in ways that make government spending more necessary and government debt more sustainable than ever.
Debt talk still dominates <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/budget-must-chart-course-to-eliminate-debt-and-deficit-20200929-p5605q">newspaper headlines</a> and many of Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/transcripts/interview-karl-stefanovic-today-show-1">media appearances</a>. But it shouldn’t. Here’s why.
We are in the middle of a major economic shock
The COVID-19 recession is the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression. GDP <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/latest-release">fell 6.3%</a> in the year to June, the worst annual result since 1929.
The federal government should use its balance sheet to spread the costs of such a large shock over time. The alternative would be to leave those who lost their jobs or businesses in poverty.
The government’s emergency response saved businesses and jobs from going under in the short term. Now, as we emerge from the crisis into the recovery phase, large-scale stimulus is needed to boost demand and create new jobs.
Debt has never been cheaper
It has never been cheaper for governments to borrow. As the next chart shows, the interest rate on 10-year Australian Government Bonds is less than 1%. If inflation stays above 1%, as the Reserve Bank and Treasury expect, the “real” interest rate the federal government pays on the bond will be negative. That is, it will effectively be paid to borrow.
<hr>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361517/original/file-20201005-20-1oqmgxs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Yields on 10 Year Australian Government Bonds."> Author provided
<hr>
These very low interest costs change the dynamics of managing debt we accrue now. Investments that boost future growth – including spending to reduce unemployment and close the output gap – will pay for themselves.
This is the fiscal “free lunch” spoken about by the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.109.4.1197">Olivier Blanchard</a>, and the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2020/sp-dg-2020-09-22">Guy Debelle</a>.
Extra stimulus won’t spook financial markets
To get the unemployment rate below 5% by the end of 2022, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-well-need-100-120-billion-why-the-budget-has-to-spend-big-to-avoid-scarring-145489">Grattan Institute</a> estimates a further A$100 billion to A$120 billion of fiscal stimulus is needed on top of what governments have already announced.
This is unlikely to cause financial markets to break a sweat. Even if gross debt was to nudge 50% of GDP in the next few years, it would still be far below that of most other developed nations before the COVID crisis. At the end of 2018-19, the gross public debt in the UK was 85% of GDP, in the US 103%, and in Japan more than 200%. All have borrowed substantially more since then at very low rates.
There’s also no risk that significant government spending will cause wages or inflation to rise dramatically. In fact, Australia has the opposite problem. Wages were stagnant before the crisis and are forecast to remain so for years. Inflation has been persistently below the Reserve Bank’s inflation target and is forecast to remain so for years.
We can manage debt without austerity
Frydenberg has signalled that, as employment recovers, the government’s fiscal strategy will shift to stabilising and then reducing debt as a share of GDP. Although his stated threshold of “well under 6% unemployment” is <a href="https://theconversation.com/frydenberg-is-setting-his-budget-ambition-dangerously-low-146855">not ambitious enough</a>, the idea makes sense.
The good news is that with interest rates on government borrowing so low, debt as a share of GDP can be reduced without pursuing austerity in the form of deficit reduction.
The interest rate is one of three factors that affect the size of debt relative to GDP. The other two are the budget balance (the incremental contribution to debt) and nominal GDP growth, which depends on economic activity and inflation.
Even if interest rates were a little higher than now (say, 1.5%), the government can reduce debt relative to GDP even while continuing to run large deficits, provided that nominal GDP growth returns to a moderate level (say, 4.5%, as it was before the pandemic).
The next chart shows that under these circumstances the government can run deficits of up to $50 billion and still reduce debt as a share of GDP.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361518/original/file-20201005-24-r8s4ta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361518/original/file-20201005-24-r8s4ta.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Gross debt-to-GDP projections based on different budget deficit scenarios."></a> Author provided
<hr>
Different rates of GDP growth would change this story, as the next chart shows. With an even higher nominal growth rate, debt would shrink even faster relative to GDP. In a scenario of prolonged low growth, debt would increase relative to GDP a little, but remain very modest.
<hr>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361519/original/file-20201005-14-1f2z9na.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Gross debt-to-GDP projections based on different GDP growth scenarios"> Author provided
<hr>
The government can do things to boost nominal growth in areas such as tax reform, education and skills, workforce participation, energy and climate policy, and land-use planning. The Reserve Bank should also do more by boosting inflation, which would support nominal growth.
Don’t scrimp on stimulus
There are many <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/the-biggest-bang-for-the-stimulus-buck/">urgent and valuable priorities</a> for government spending right now, such as permanently raising JobSeeker, boosting child-care support and building more social housing.
More debt might impose a small cost over a very long time. But the cost of insufficient stimulus and a prolonged recession would be vastly bigger.
The choice is simple. We should not let debt panic distract us from making it.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147369/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/danielle-wood-147710">Danielle Wood</a>, Chief executive officer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-crowley-1041697">Tom Crowley</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-worry-about-the-debt-we-need-more-stimulus-to-avoid-a-prolonged-recession-147369">original article</a>.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

We need more stimulus to avoid a prolonged recession

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
 
Overwhelmingly, the 50 leading Australian economists surveyed by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation ahead of Thursday’s <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/media-releases/update-economic-and-fiscal-outlook">economic statement</a> want the government to keep spending to support the economy — even if it means a substantial increase in debt.
The question is the third asked in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/esa-conversation-national-economic-poll-87063">Economic Society-Conversation monthly poll</a>, which builds on a series of polls conducted by the society since 2015.
The economists polled were selected for their preeminence in the fields of microeconomics, macroeconomics, economic modelling and public policy. Among them are former and current government advisers and a former and current member of the Reserve Bank board.
Each was asked whether they agreed, disagreed, or strongly agreed or strongly disagreed with this proposition:
Governments should provide ongoing fiscal support to boost aggregate demand during the economic crisis and recovery, even if it means a substantial increase in public debt.
Only three of the 50 economists polled disagreed with the proposition, none of them “strongly”.
It is one of the starkest results in the survey’s five-year history.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348556/original/file-20200721-17-1h8kcyj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="50 economists respond: Govs should provide ongoing fiscal support to boost aggregate demand during the economic crisis and recovery, even if it means a substantial increase in public debt. Strongly agree: 66%, Agree: 22%, Uncertain: 6%, Disagree: 6%">The Conversation, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Of the 50 economists polled, 44 supported the proposition, 33 of them “strongly”.
Of the remaining six, three were uncertain, and provided well-argued accounts of their reasoning which are published in full along the responses of each of the other participants at the bottom of of this article.
Debt now, concern later
Rachel Ong of Curtin University said the amount of public debt that has accumulated during the COVID-19 crisis was at a historical high and had to be repaid at some point. But she said governments had to be careful about removing support until the economy was clearly on a trajectory of recovery.
Nigel Stapledon of the University of NSW said while some level of on-going support was needed, at some point the cost would be larger than the benefit. Some sectors, including universities, will have to permanently adjust to lower incomes.
The economists who strongly agreed said that if not enough support was provided or if it was withdrawn too early, the resulting recession would itself make the debt that had been run up less sustainable (Fabrizio Carmignani, Griffith Business).
Financial markets are keen to lend
Beth Webster of Swinburne University argued the only real limit to government spending was high and damaging inflation.
If the government was worried about debt, it could finance its spending in other ways, by borrowing from the Reserve Bank (which could itself create money and “monetise” the debt).
Sue Richardson from the University of Adelaide agreed, using a technical term to argue that the was economy was “so far inside its production possibility frontier” (producing so much less than it was capable of) and inflation was so dormant, that there was a case for creating money.
Saul Eslake said that wasn’t necessary. Even with the hundreds of billions committed, financial markets appeared to be comfortable with the debt and keen to lend.
Debt is how we do things
Reserve Bank board member Ian Harper said the Commonwealth could borrow for 30 years at about 1%. “Can we expect the economy to grow faster than 1% per annum in nominal terms over a 30-year horizon?” he asked rhetorically. “I would have thought that’s a shoo-in,” he answered. If so, then the debt would be easily serviced.
Consulting economist Rana Roy pointed out that public debt was “not an anomaly”. It was an enduring and defining feature of the modern economy, providing an enduring and defining asset class, sovereign bonds, which were in high demand.
Of the three economists who opposed the proposition, Tony Makin of Griffith supported “supply side” measures such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/bowing-out-gracefully-how-theyll-wind-down-and-better-target-jobkeeper-143011">JobKeeper</a> that would keep firms in business but opposed “demand side” measures to boost consumer spending, saying they would ultimately prove counterproductive.
Escalating public debt would induce capital inflow, drive up the dollar and make Australian businesses less competitive. Although interest rates are at present low, they would increase when the debt had to be refinanced.
Doubts for differing reasons
Paul Fritjers of the London School of Economics said he would normally support running up government debt for the sake of the economy, but could not support it being run up to support an economy the government itself had run down.
The government should wean the population off of its “irrational fears” and letting “normal economic life return”.
Although strongly argued, these views were more weakly held than those of the majority.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/348557/original/file-20200721-23-a3clr6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="Previous responses weighted by confidence: Strongly agree: 70.4%, Agree: 21.7%, Uncertain: 3.5%, Disagree: 4.4%">The Conversation, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
Participants were asked to rate the confidence with which they held their opinions on a scale of 1 to 10.
When adjusted for these ratings, the proportion prepared to countenance a substantial increase in public debt climbed from 88% to 92.1%.
The proportion opposing it fell from 6% to 4.6%.
Tommorrow’s <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/media-releases/update-economic-and-fiscal-outlook">economic statement</a> will be the last budget and economic update before the budget itself on <a href="https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/josh-frydenberg-2018/media-releases/2020-21-budget-announcement">October 6</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/143089/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/should-the-government-keep-running-up-debt-to-get-us-out-of-the-crisis-overwhelmingly-economists-say-yes-143089">original article</a>.
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Should the government keep running up debt? Economists say yes

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New figures released from the ABS show new home lending plunged in the month of April by $935.5 million.
In the same month, Australians wiped a record $1.55 billion off debt accruing interest on their credit cards – the highest drop on record.
HOUSING 
The ABS lending indicator statistics released today show that new lending dropped by 4.80 per cent, month-on-month, with the total value of new lending down by $935.5 million compared to March 2020, according to the seasonally adjusted data. Of this, a $720.9 million drop was from new owner-occupier loans. 
Refinancing, however, picked up pace – the number of external refinances increased by 11.20 per cent in the month of April, and 26.96 per cent, year-on-year, according to the seasonally adjusted figures.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td rowspan="2" nowrap>
Value of new loans
</td>
<td>
% change 
</td>
<td>
% change 
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Mar 2020 – Apr 2020
</td>
<td>
Apr 2019 – Apr 2020
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Total housing
</td>
<td nowrap>
-4.80%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
11.24%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Owner occupiers
</td>
<td nowrap>
-5.00%
</td>
<td nowrap>
14.75%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Investors
</td>
<td nowrap>
-4.23%
</td>
<td nowrap>
2.38%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Notes: Seasonally adjusted figures. Figures exclude refinancing.
Source: ABS lending indicator statistics for April 2020, released 10 June 2020.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td rowspan="2">
Number of owner-occupier loans
</td>
<td>
% change 
</td>
<td>
% change 
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Mar 2020 – Apr 2020
</td>
<td>
Apr 2019 – Apr 2020
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
First home buyers
</td>
<td nowrap>
-3.75%
</td>
<td nowrap>
15.56%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td nowrap>
Refinancers
</td>
<td nowrap>
11.20%
</td>
<td nowrap>
26.96%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
Notes: Based on the number of new loans to owner occupiers using seasonally adjusted figures.
Source: ABS lending indicator statistics for April 2020, released 10 June 2020.
CREDIT CARDS
Statistics released yesterday from the RBA show that outstanding debt accruing interest dropped by $1.55 billion or 5.76 per cent. The highest monthly drop on record. 
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<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
TOTAL
</td>
<td>
Apr-20
</td>
<td>
Mar 2020 vs Apr 2020
</td>
<td>
Apr 19 vs Apr 2020
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Number of accounts
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
13.50 million
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-136,817
-1.00%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-1.09 million
-7.48%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Total balances accruing interest
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
$25.43 billion
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-$1.55 billion
-5.76%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-$4.10 billion
-13.87%
</td>
</tr>
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<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Total value of purchases
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
$14.72 billion
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-$6.43 billion
-30.42%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-$7.22 billion
-32.92%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
Total value of cash advance
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
$307.44 million
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-$199.54 million
-39.36%
</td>
<td valign="bottom" nowrap>
-$287.76 million
-48.35%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
Notes: excludes commercial cards, using original data from the RBA. Data released 9 June 2020. 
RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said a lot of Australians spent their lockdown refinancing their mortgages and getting on top of their debt.
“Australians spent the month of April getting their finances in order, scaling back spending and knocking down their debt, with the biggest monthly drop in debt accruing interest on record,” she said.  
“The early access to superannuation program is likely to be a factor in this record busting drop, giving some Australians an opportunity to wipe clean their credit cards that was, in their mind, too good to refuse.
“Refinance activity has also taken off during lockdown. We expect this to continue to gain pace with many homeowners looking to sure up their finances. 
“In relation to mortgages, today’s drop is likely to be the beginning of a long road ahead for the home lending market.  
“In April alone, nearly one billion dollars of new lending was ripped out of the property market, as the country went into lockdown; the biggest monthly drop in new lending since October 2015, in dollar terms,” she said.
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Aussies hunker down on debt in lockdown

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Wayne Byres, chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), has said financial stability risks from very cheap debt overload and high-cost housing were still present in the economy.
Amid signs of a property recovery in the Melbourne and Sydney property markets, Byres said the market was at an "interesting juncture".
"The downward adjustment in prices has occurred in an orderly fashion and been positive for stability," he said in a speech in Melbourne.
"However, it is worth remembering that the original risks we were concerned about in 2014 - high prices, high debt, low interest rates and subdued income growth - have not gone away, and in some cases increased."
He noted the downward adjustment in prices has occurred in an orderly fashion and been positive for stability.
"It would be unhelpful if recent (and prospective) interest rate reductions led to a resurgence in speculative activity," he said. 
Byres said he did not want banks to cut their credit standards as a way to fire up loan growth.
"When it comes to the supply of credit, it would therefore be unwise for lending standards to be allowed to erode again as a means of generating lending growth. And on the demand side, it would be unhelpful if recent (and prospective) interest rate reductions led to a resurgence in speculative activity," he said.
"Financial stability doesn’t happen by chance," he noted.
Earlier this month, CoreLogic reported Melbourne house prices rose 1.3 per cent in August, while Sydney prices rose 1.5 per cent. National housing prices were up 0.8 per cent in the same month, the first increase since October 2017.
Byres' speech also noted the squeeze on bank profits.
It arose from low interest rates as lenders offset the decline in their lending rates through their deposit portfolios.
Byres said smaller banks, which have a higher reliance on deposit funding, could feel the hit on their profits "more forcefully" than large banks.
He indicated it could affect competition in the market.
"All four Australian major banks enjoy AA credit ratings, and ready access to funding; very few European banks (without explicit government support) enjoy similar ratings
"In 2018, a decade after the crisis, the four Australian majors were ranked in the top 35 banks in the world by market capitalisation.
"Europe, despite a much larger banking system and population, only had four banks in the top 35.
"The return on equity (RoE) of the Australian major banks has certainly declined but has not fallen below 10 per cent, even during the GFC, and is now in the order of 12 per cent; for large global European banks, RoE was negative at the height of the crisis, and has struggled to get much above 5 per cent since then."
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APRA's Wayne Byres warns of high debt and rising property prices

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<h1>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-mcgovern-168" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">Mark McGovern</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847" target="_blank">Queensland University of Technology</a>
</h1>
The Queensland state government is <a href="https://www.qtc.com.au/annual-reports/annual-report-2016-17/" target="_blank">paying a higher interest rate</a> than most Queenslanders are on their mortgages. To make matters worse, debt is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265852954_Subprime_agriculture_and_Australia" target="_blank">becoming problematic in rural areas</a> with incomes and asset values down, and debts, unemployment and underemployment up.
Without improved state government debt arrangements, and policies to alleviate stressed industries and communities, Queenslanders’ income and wealth will suffer.
A destructive dynamic is at work in government, rural and urban debts. As debt servicing bites, consumption falls, stressing businesses and their employees. Public and private interest payments crowd out jobs and business investment.
The interest rate on Queensland government debt is currently 5.2% per annum, compared to <a href="https://www.canstar.com.au/compare/home-loans/?amount=350000&amp;profile=Buying+Next+Home+350k&amp;purpose=Buying+Next+Home&amp;repayment_type=P%2BI&amp;state=NSW&amp;Loan+Type=Variable&amp;provider_link=Yes%2C+only+show+results+with+links" target="_blank">mortgage rates</a> between 3% and 4%.
Interest rates fluctuate markedly from year to year. Today the <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate is 1.5% pa</a> yet the Queensland government in 2013-14 was paying the same 5.2% pa when the RBA cash rate was 3% pa. Failure to capture lower market rates is evident in the state’s finances.
<h2>Government debt</h2>
The Queensland government sells bonds to cover its borrowing. For example, it could sell a ten-year bond for A$1,000 (the face value) that pays out 5% pa every six months. The Queensland Treasury makes interest payments every six months and pays back the A$1,000 after ten years.
However, bonds are traded in markets and can be bought and sold for more or less than the face value. If interest rates in the wider economy are lower than what the bond pays or if perceived risks are low, a bond may trade for more than the face value, say A$1,100.
Looking at <a href="https://www.qtc.com.au/annual-reports/annual-report-2016-17/" target="_blank">Queensland Treasury Corporation data</a> we can see that total debts held by the State of Queensland had a face value of A$89.2 billion but a market value for A$98.5 billion at the end of June 2017. This was A$9.3 billion more than face value.
Also evident is that total debt peaked in 2014-15, but <a href="https://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/leaders-trip-over-debt-campaign-unfolds/3253743/" target="_blank">no one seems to have noticed</a>.
<iframe style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/10id6/3/" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
Examining the breakdown between Queensland departments such as Treasury and the government-owned corporations that supply electricity, water and the like, the rise in Queensland general government debt was relatively smooth between 2007 and 2015. Changes in government had no significant effects on the trend in general government debt.
This rise appears driven by a <a href="https://s3.budget.qld.gov.au/budget/papers/2/4-Revenue.pdf" target="_blank">shortfall in government revenue</a>, poor policies and the global financial crisis. A lack of critical information about government debt compounded these problems.
As discussed by the <a href="https://publications.qld.gov.au/dataset/rural-debt-and-drought-taskforce-report/resource/fea23ad0-e069-4484-91ce-d1d762decc48" target="_blank">rural debt and drought taskforce</a>, relatively small rural debts also appear to be manageable. Much bigger challenges lie in the big cities because of the sheer size and the recentness of much debt.
<h2>Refinancing Queensland?</h2>
Relatively small steps can have big effects in the current situation.
The first step for the new government is to provide better transparency about the state of government debt with Treasury publishing better analysis and fuller accounts. This will help lead to more sustainable state finances, and to tackle problems in both rural and urban areas.
Although large Queensland government debts appear relatively manageable, this is providing that net government revenues can be maintained.
There are several potential policy initiatives but we only have space to consider one. Suppose the Queensland government set a target of transitioning to raise one-third of its funds from directly selling non-transferable bonds (that can’t be bought or sold) to Queenslanders. This was a regular practice before financial liberalisation in the 1980s. If done again well, it could be a win-win outcome.
Much like a term deposit, Queenslanders could buy five-year bonds with an interest rate of, say, 3% pa. This would reward Queensland savers with better returns than they could get in a savings account and keep money within the state. It would have saved the government the significant sum of A$620 million if used for a third of government bonds in 2016-17.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87586/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Interest payments should be one focus for the incoming government as it works with insight to improve its management of debts and their effects. Gains from some fresh thinking could be considerable.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mark-mcgovern-168" target="_blank">Mark McGovern</a>, Visiting Fellow, QUT Business School, Economics and Finance, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847" target="_blank">Queensland University of Technology</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-queensland-government-is-paying-more-for-its-debt-than-the-average-mortgage-holder-87586" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The Queensland government is paying more for its debt than the average mortgage holder

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75857/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The current debate about housing muddles two separate issues: the affordability of housing, and the risk in the banking system of any significant fall in house prices. Clearly, they are both important issues and the link between them is the potential for a lot of home owners to overreach in their finances, to not be able to repay their loans, and so to bring down their banks.
When you look at the data (in three charts) on mortgage stress, the systemic risk of people not being able to repay their home loans appears small. Data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) reveals the average balance on housing loans has barely trended upwards over the last five years (see our first chart below).
This was during a period when house prices have risen quite strongly. In effect, this means that, on average, people have more equity in their houses to stand behind their borrowings.
This is not just true for the average but also if you look at investor loans or for low documentation (loc-doc) loans (these are aimed at those who cannot provide the usual required paperwork, for example self-employed people). The same trends emerge. It’s not clear from this that people are taking on excessive risk – and certainly not recently.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/v1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/10/v1.jpg" width="600" height="432">
Source: ABS6416.0 and APRA Quarterly ADI Property Exposures
Even for new loans you get the same basic picture. The chart below shows the loan to valuation ratios for new loans. What is clear is that for most new loans people are borrowing between 60% and 80% of the value of their houses.
The proportion of people who have very high exposure to a fall in house prices – those with loan to valuation ratios above 90% – has been declining over time. Once again, the basic picture is one of prudent households, rather than a community of people gambling on house price rises.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/v2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/10/v2.jpg" width="600" height="432">
Source: APRA Quarterly ADI Property Exposures
A lot of the confusion about housing arises because people make inappropriate comparisons. One common mistake is to compare the amount of housing debt with national income. This is highly misleading.
A more correct comparison is between your income and the amount of your income needed to service your loan. At a national level, this means we should look at the size of national income and the amount of income needed to service the debt (not the amount of debt).
An alternative that the Reserve Bank uses is to compare the amount of debt people have with the amount of assets they hold. As we can see in the chart below, the value of household liabilities has been increasing but the total value of assets held by households appears to have been rising faster. Again, there is no clear case that the household sector has borrowed excessively.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/10/v3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/10/v3.jpg" width="600" height="432">
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
None of this is to deny that house prices can fall, or that some people are finding it very hard to buy somewhere to live in Sydney. Houses are much cheaper in other parts of Australia and property prices have even been falling recently in some regions.
Rodney Maddock is a Vice Chancellor's Fellow at Victoria University and Adjunct Professor of Economics, Monash University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rodney-maddock-107543" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Mortgage stress isn't as bad as you might think: Rodney Maddock

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The real estate franchise business LJ Hooker is facing a December debt refinancing requirement, according to the Australian Financial Review's Street Talk column.
It comes after shelving plans for a $400 million float earlier this year.
The Street Talk column suggested the franchise business has around $60 million in obligations with a refinance due at the end of 2016.
A spokeswoman advised the company founded in 1928 by the legendary Sir Leslie Hooker was reviewing "a variety of capital management options to deliver its growth plans." 
It was in July last year that Janusz Hooker, the grandson of Sir Leslie, cemented his control of the business as a number of well-known shareholders sold out.
Among them were its former chairman Greg Paramor, former Leighton chief Wal King, developer and yachtsman Syd Fisher and RAMS founder, John Kinghorn.
In October, last year there was a pre-initial public offering cash call of around $20 million. 
There was also talk of a joint venture with Barry Plant.
Street Talk advised today there were whispers about Janusz Hooker and whether he will relocate to Singapore.
LJH advised Property Observer there were major factual issues with the story, including the claim that it owed any debt this year.
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LJ Hooker reviewing capital management options

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64367/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
A new study shows two million Australians are experiencing high financial stress which prevents them from coping in difficult situations, for example, in paying unexpected expenses such as a big mobile phone bill or the fridge breaking down.
Adults face these sorts of scenarios frequently. When they arise, people usually turn to savings, a credit card, or a friend or family member to help out.
Our report, Financial Resilience in Australia, funded by the National Australia Bank, quantifies the amount of Australians: experiencing problems paying debts; meeting the costs of living; and accessing appropriate, affordable and acceptable financial products and services.
It also shows some Australians have trouble accessing social support in times of crisis and may have low levels of financial knowledge.
Our research measured financial resilience by the four key resources that support it: personal economic resources (such as savings), financial products and services (such as insurance), financial knowledge and behaviour (including financial literacy), and social capital (having social support in times of crisis, including friends and families).
Many Australians simply don’t have the resources to bounce back. For example, around:
<ul>
<li>One in two adults have limited to no savings</li>
<li>One in two only have a “basic understanding” of financial products and services</li>
<li>One in ten have unmet need for credit and/or insurance</li>
<li>One in five have limited or no social connections</li>
<li>One in 30 stated they needed but did not have access to any form of government or community support.</li>
</ul>
This has implications for the short and long-term impact on individuals and their families.
<h2>Who is most at risk?</h2>
Our research found secure housing, steady income, education, being employed and good mental health are strongly associated with financial resilience.
On average, financial resilience is significantly lower among people who are homeless, living in social housing, are short-term renters or live in student accommodation.
Financial resilience increases with the level of education and, unsurprisingly, people with very low personal incomes fare poorly.
Employment status is a key marker. People who are unemployed, underemployed, not in the labour force and those who only work odd jobs are more likely than their full-time employed counterparts to have lower levels of financial resilience.
People with a serious mental illness are significantly more likely to be in severe or high financial stress, are less likely to be financially secure and fare worse on each of the individual resource groups than people without mental illness.
The gender split in financial resilience is fairly even overall. However, the four components of financial resilience are influenced by gender. Women have lower general levels of economic resources than men, but men have lower levels of social capital than women.
People who were born overseas in a non-English speaking country have lower levels of resilience than those who were born in Australia. Finally, the influence of age on financial resilience varies and is often affected by other factors.
One in four study participants reported difficulties accessing financial services. The barriers are varied, but include cost, trust, poor and inadequate services, and (for a few) language, disability and discrimination.
This underscores the importance of making financial information, products and services more user-friendly and accessible. This will ensure these resources are available and accessible to everyone who needs and wants them in society.
The factors influencing financial security are not surprising. People who own their own homes, have a university-level education and have a personal yearly income of more than A$100,000, for example, have higher levels of financial resilience. However, only 35.7% of Australians are financially secure.
The prevailing attitude around financial problems is that individuals are solely responsible for their situation. Our research challenges this ideas as it shows multiple aspects to financial resilience, some out of the individual’s control.
The below shows how interlocked the different components of financial resilience are and when pieces of the puzzle are removed, the most vulnerable people are at risk.
<a href="/images/2016/08/29/image-20160826-11150-bc398a.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/08/29/image-20160826-11150-bc398a.jpg" alt="" width="754" height="407">
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The jigsaw of financial resilience. The Centre for Social Impact, Author provided
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At the moment social sector leaders are lobbying the government to scrap proposed budget cuts that will reduce the amount of certain welfare payments. Our research shows these same people have the least resilience to bounce back if they were to lose some financial support.
This is an example of how the government needs to play a more active role in understanding financial resilience and where support is needed. By understanding the often interrelated elements of financial resilience, tipping points and who is most at risk, prevention and intervention can be better tailored.
Rebecca Reeve is senior research fellow, Centre for Social Impact, UNSW Australia and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rebecca-reeve-97205" target="_blank">here</a>.
Kirsty Muir is professor of Social Policy / Research Director, Centre for Social Impact, UNSW Australia and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kristy-muir-158422" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Two million Aussies are experiencing high financial stress

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This is a question faced by many developers as they find themselves inevitably stepping up to larger projects and the consequential demand on their equity resources. The answers are complex and can vary depending on many variables but let’s take a look at what each option offers
Firstly, lets be clear on the differences between debt and equity. Debt comes in many forms but essentially, it comprises funds that are lent at a proscribed interest rate which in a project scenario are usually but not always, capitalized as a cost of the project. Debt is typically but again not always, secured by a registered charge over the security property together with sponsor guarantees and in the final wash up, the lender’s repayment of capital, interest and fees take priority over those of the sponsor when apportioning the proceeds of sale. Clearly it is important to negotiate the best possible terms when committing to a debt position but at the end of the day, the golden rule tends to apply, he who has the gold, makes the rules.
Equity on the other hand is usually defined as the capital contribution provided by the sponsor of the project and any related parties. Equity can take the form of cash, services provided and any improvement in value derived from the revaluation of an asset as a consequence of a rezoning or similar.
Sponsor structures can take many different forms but for the purposes of this article we will treat partnerships the same as single traders (as do lenders), while Joint Ventures provide a structured arrangement enabling parties with differing skills and or capabilities to come together to undertake a project and share in the resulting profits. 
The manner in which debt and equity can be sourced and applied is almost limitless but lets take a look at the typical options available to a developer and consider the benefits.
The Debt Options:
Firstly, you need to be aware that the state of the market will often determine what is actually available. Simplistically, in a rising market, access to both debt and equity is typically more readily available and pricing is competitive. Traditional debt providers such as the banks and major funds chasing market share, will consider higher Loan to Cost/Value ratios, more competitive terms such as lower presale requirements and keenly priced interest margins and fees.
Alternatives such as mezzanine funding also become more prevalent in rising markets with participants providing funds to top up the capital stack in a project. Typically filling the gap between senior debt at say 75-80 percent up to 90-95 percent of the total project cost, the cost of Mezzanine can range from 20-25 percent p.a. but as the market gets hotter and depending on the level of risk, pricing can fall to as little as 14 percent.
While these funds may seem attractive, they are often accompanied by very tight and restrictive terms, which can result in the sponsor losing control of the project to the advantage of the mezzanine lender. Sponsors need to be aware that a Mezzanine partner is really just another lender albeit with more to lose that the senior debt provider and when the going gets tough, you potentially have two masters to satisfy rather than just one and neither is likely to have the same agenda as you.
A key point to remember is that in a rising market Mezzanine Lenders are attracted to a share of the upside and negotiate accordingly. In a falling market they will seek to cap their exposure and prioritise their returns at your expense. Conversely, you as the developer are looking to maximise the blue sky in the project or protect your downside as the case maybe.
“Stretch senior” debt is another option that is usually seen in stronger markets with some specialist lenders prepared to exceed the usual Major bank construction loan LCR’s of between 70-80 percent by lending up to 90 percent+ of LCR in return for a margin that reflects the associated risk, which might be some 3-4% above that charged by the banks, depending on their assessment of the project and sponsor risks.
In a falling or credit constrained market as we are currently experiencing, the traditional lenders tighten their terms and we see LCR’s firm to between 65-75% and the application of stricter presale requirements, typically with a minimum of 100% debt cover as a condition precedent. 
Joint Ventures:
The attraction of Joint Ventures is that they provide a multitude of structures that can be tailored to the developers needs and typically provide access to capital and expanded skill sets in return for a share of both the profit and the risk.
Like debt, Joint Venture funds are easier to secure in a rising market but even more importantly than with debt, the secret here is to find the right partner. While negotiating the right terms and a soundly drafted JV Agreement are critical (we will deal with this in a future article), the most important consideration is finding a partner who not only has complementary skills and capabilities to work with their own but also has the same goals and values in terms of their decision-making processes. This is a more challenging exercise that selecting the right debt or mezzanine partner but has the potential to be far more rewarding. 
The classic JV structure where the parties are equal in their contributions and profit entitlements are rare with most comprising of a party with the ideas/opportunities and the other with the capital and resources to make it happen or a similar permutation. As a result, in a rising market Joint Venture partners with capital are attracted by an increased share of the upside and negotiate accordingly, while in a falling market they will seek to cap their exposure and prioritise their returns at the expense of their partner or the lender. Conversely, the initiating developer is also self motivated and looking to give away as little as possible in their project which usually results in an increased downside in the event that they do not perform their obligations and for newcomers this inevitably ends in tears as they over estimate their own capabilities.
So, the question as regards more debt as opposed to equity is not simply one of cost. More importantly it is one of understanding your capabilities to deliver and being able to deal with the consequences if unforeseen forces result in a less than optimum outcome.
In the case of “more debt”, the developer needs to be aware that losing control to the lenders has a proportionally higher risk in terms of the financial consequences both in terms of the project and their personal fortunes. On the other hand the Joint Venture can reduce the downside risks from a capital exposure perspective but comes at the cost of having to give away a substantial portion of the projected profit.
So, there is no right or wrong answer here, the key question an under capitalized developer needs to ask themselves is what option best fits my situation, what is the downside if events outside my control mean that the project fails and can I live with the consequences of my decision?
 
This article was written by Dan Holden of HoldenCAPITAL, who are a bespoke construction finance firm, they arrange construction finance and invest in projects through their equity fund, Queen Street INVEST. To discuss your project finance requirement please call (07) 3171 4200 or visit HoldenCAPITAL <a href="https://www.holdencapital.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Risk and Reward – Does more debt solve your problems or do you need a JV Partner? HoldenCAPITAL

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The global bond fund giant PIMCO has suggested that falling interest rates and rising house prices had the potential to drive a more irrational response with a 'herd mentality' that assumed continued capital price appreciation.
Based on the fear of missing out, PIMCO portfolio manager Aaditya Thakur said there was a risk that people build unrealistic and unsustainable expectations that house prices could continue to rise given prevailing conditions.  
"If you think about why people lever up its because they expect further income or price appreciation or a combination of both, but if they are extrapolating from past history, it might not be a true reflection of future productivity of the asset," she told The Australian Financial Review after issuance of her co-authored report.
PIMCO noted Australian household debt to net worth had increased from below 15 per cent in the early 90s to a peak to almost 30 per cent in 2009 - and now remained above 25%. 
PIMCO, which manages $US1.6 trillion of assets globally and $35 billion in Australia, completed the research paper to understand the drivers of household borrowing decisions.
The fund's thesis is of a "new neutral" which suggested Australian interest rates would be held lower for longer by a number of factors.
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Australians being "irrationally exuberant" by borrowing too much to invest in housing, exposed the economy to financial shocks, global bond fund giant PIMCO tipped.
The PIMCO researchers found that Australians' decision to borrow was driven by falling interest rates and rising house prices – not economic fundamentals that reflect the health of the economy like employment.
The world's biggest bond investor said Australians appeared to be "trigger happy" about debt – responding far quicker than others to changes in interest rates and asset prices. 
PIMCO says they start borrowing more after only six months of increases in house prices compared with a year in the US.
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