Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

First look: Harridan plans Burke Street transformation beside Boggo Road transport hub

Bubble

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GUEST OBSERVER
Following the end of the mining boom, Australia’s growth has been rebalancing towards housing and the services sectors. The first part of the rebalancing act involved a significant rise in housing prices and housing construction. 
Housing prices have risen by 30 percent since mid-2012, led by Sydney and Melbourne. Most of the rampup in building has been apartments in the major cities. 
The housing market is now cooling, as a result of tighter prudential settings and the boost to housing supply.
<a href="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.43.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.43.29%20AM.png" alt=""> 
Although the housing upswing has been a necessary part of the rebalancing act, it also drove a rise in household debt. The household debt-to-income ratio has risen from 167 percent in 2011 to 186 percent in 2015. Australian household debt levels are among the highest in the world. However, high household debt is not, in itself, a problem, as long as the debt is held by households that can service it. In Australia, the distribution is fairly favourable, with high income earners holding most of the debt.
Institutional features also matter. In Australia’s case, all mortgages are full recourse, significantly reducing the incentive to default. Australia does not have sub-prime mortgages. Australian households also use their mortgage to save, given the tax benefits available for doing so. This has meant that the average mortgage is currently more than 2.5 years pre-paid, leaving households with a significant equity buffer to draw down, if needed. The prudential regulator has also been tightening lending standards over the past 18 months, particularly for investors, reducing the risks involved with the new lending. Loan-to-valuation ratios on new loans have fallen.
We expect housing price growth to remain subdued in coming quarters. We see some risk that apartment prices could fall, given signs of over-supply of apartments, particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane. However, we view these apartment markets as somewhat segmented from the detached housing market. Significant foreign investment in new apartments also limits domestic financial system exposure.
Overall, we see mortgage debt as generally well distributed to households that can  afford to continue to service it and see the financial stability risks as moderate.
Australia’s housing market is cooling 
National housing prices have been broadly steady over the past six months, following strong growth over recent years (Chart 1). 
The slowdown has been most vivid in Sydney and Melbourne, where housing prices have been flat since October, following annual average growth of 10 percent and 6 percent over the previous four years (Chart 2). Housing price growth has been much more modest in the rest of the country at around 3 percent a year over the same period.
Apartment prices have generally risen by less than detached housing prices in recent years, and are slowing down by more than detached housing prices in some of the major markets.
The slowdown reflects a range of factors, including tighter prudential settings, particularly for investors, and rising housing supply. We expect these factors to continue to constrain housing price growth in coming quarters and forecast that national housing price growth will run at low single-digit rates this year and into 2017, following growth of around 10% in 2015 (see Downunder Digest: Australia’s housing market cools, 11 December 2015).
<a href="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.45.21%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.45.21%20AM.png" alt="">
Household debt has risen, but it’s the distribution that matters
The housing price boom has led to rising household debt. The household debt-to-income ratio has increased from 167% in 2011 to 186% in 2015, mostly led by a pick-up in lending to investors (Chart 3 and 4). This makes Australian household debt levels amongst the highest in the developed world (Chart 5). Of course, given the rise in housing prices, the household debt-to-asset ratio has been more subdued: it has actually fallen from 24% in 2011 to 22% in 2015.
<a href="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.46.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.46.38%20AM.png" alt="">
High household debt levels can make an economy more vulnerable in the face of a shock.
However, it is unusual for the high debt levels, in themselves, to be the driver of a downturn. The US sub-prime crisis was a rare example of this situation. Importantly though, even in the US, it was not the level of aggregate debt that mattered most, but the distribution of debt. In Australia’s case, most of the debt is held by higher income households. Numbers for 2010 showed that, at that time, around 72% of the household debt was held by the top 40% of income earners (Chart 6). Less than 4% of the debt attributed to the lowest 20% of earners.
Australia’s financial system also has institutional features that help to reduce the risk that household debt could become concerning. For a start, all mortgages are full recourse.
Australia’s tax system also favours paying down mortgages ahead of schedule as interest payments and expenses on owner-occupied properties are not tax-deductible. 
The latest numbers suggest that the average mortgage in Australia is currently over 2.5 years pre-paid, leaving households with a significant buffer in the face of the risk of rising unemployment.
Lending standards were tightened as investor borrowing rose
Despite these factors, the strong rise in lending to housing investors through 2013-15 raised concerns that the new lending could increase the risk to the overall mortgage book. Concerns increased partly because the ramp-up in debt was quite geographically concentrated in New South Wales and, to a lesser degree, Victoria, and because the strong investor interest was helping to fuel double-digit housing price growth in these markets (Chart 7).
<a href="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.48.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.48.14%20AM.png" alt="">
As a result of these concerns, the authorities tightened prudential settings. This included: requiring the banks to test new borrowers for a higher mortgage rate than offered; requiring the banks to slow the growth in their lending to investors to below 10% y-o-y; and, requiring the banks to hold more capital (which saw effective mortgage rates rise). Tighter prudential settings have seen a clear pullback in lending to investors (see Chart 7). There has also been a fall in the proportion of lending at loan-to-valuation ratios of over 90% and a decline in ‘interest only’ loans (Chart 8). This should help to reduce the risks associated with recent new lending.
Apartment over-supply presents a risk
To the extent that there are risks, the key focus is on the apartment markets in the major cities. Apartment building has picked up substantially in the major cities (Chart 9). Importantly, our view remains that the national detached housing market is not over-supplied, which means the overall housing market is not yet showing signs of being over-supplied (see Downunder Digest: Australia’s housing supply ramp-up, 9 September 2015). As Chart 9 shows, there has only been a modest rise in construction of detached dwellings in recent years.
<a href="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.49.28%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.49.28%20AM.png" alt="">
The risk of a potential over-supply of apartments is largest in Melbourne and Brisbane, where apartment building has been at record highs as a share of the existing stock (Chart 10). There is also some risk of over-supply in Perth, where apartment building has been strong.
To some degree, the detached and apartment markets are segmented, given the lack of perfect substitutability. For example, buyers of detached dwellings in the suburbs tend to be quite different from buyers of inner-city apartments. So a possible decline in apartment prices, due to over-supply, would not necessarily translate into a matching fall in detached housing prices.
This is particularly the case, given that there has only been a limited pick-up in detached home building in recent years. The tightening of prudential settings and falls in loan-to-valuation ratios also help protect the financial system from any decline in apartment prices as new borrowers would need to see larger price declines before they fell into negative equity.
Strong foreign investor involvement in the major city apartment markets, particularly from China, may also limit the exposure of the domestic financial system to the impact of any falls in apartment prices in these markets. Government approval numbers show that there has been a strong rise in foreign purchases of new dwellings in Australia over the past year (Chart 11).
<a href="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.50.41%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.50.41%20AM.png" alt="">
Many of these purchases are off-the-plan apartments, partly because foreigners are restricted to purchasing newly constructed dwellings.
In its recent semi-annual financial stability review, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) noted that ‘the Australian banking system has little direct exposure to Chinese investors’. Foreign buyers may also have different motivations for purchasing, with some looking to invest in property as a store of value, rather than for speculation. This could limit the willingness of foreign investors to divest, even in the event of some capital losses.
Falling apartment prices could also put pressure on developers’ balance sheets, with many of the apartments having been sold ‘off the plan’. Again, the RBA recently noted that its liaison suggested that ‘settlement failures have, to date, remained uncommon and are generally expected to increase significantly only if housing prices fall substantially’.
Related risk in commercial property
Global demand for commercial property assets has also somewhat displaced Australia’s commercial property market. Commercial property prices have risen well ahead of rents in recent years, as global investors ‘search for yield’ pushes Australian yields down to global levels, which are around historical lows. The ramp-up in commercial property prices (and fall in yields) has come despite office vacancy rates that remain elevated, with particularly sharp increases in Brisbane and Perth.
This could have a bearing on the domestic apartment market as there may be some substitutability between office and apartment buildings. A retreat in commercial property prices could put some downward pressure on apartment prices. However, much like the apartment market, foreign investor involvement in the commercial property sector has been significant, which could limit the risks to the domestic financial system.
Mortgage loan arrears are still falling
Finally, it is worth noting that mortgage loan arrears have continued to fall since their peak in 2011 and are at very low levels (Chart 12). What is most interesting is that arrears continued to decline despite the rise in the unemployment rate over recent years. This is likely to reflect the support from falling interest rates over that period. The recent decline in the unemployment rate should help to support loan servicing and potentially limit concerns about household debt levels.
<a href="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.51.42%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-22%20at%208.51.42%20AM.png" alt="">
Paul Bloxham is chief economist (ANZ) for HSBC . Daniel Smith is economist. They can be contacted <a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Australia’s rising household debt and should we worry? HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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It didn’t take long for some property commentators to start declaring that the Sydney market was crashing when last week clearance rates came in at 65.1%.
The fools have been released from the asylum when you closely scrutinise this data where Sydney consists of approximately 700 suburbs, so are they all crashing? I looked up Mosman’s clearance rate for last week and it came in at a respectable 87.5% which is hardly crashing as some would have you believe. Don’t get me wrong it is clear that the Sydney real estate market is correcting rather than crashing – this is not a bad thing either.
The problem for some is that intellectually they can’t differentiate between the strong investment market over the owner occupier market, with the investment market cooling at a much more rapid pace due to lending restrictions and consumer sentiment adjustments – which are long overdue.
Many consumers who are chasing investment properties should be quite concerned about what’s around the corner and I’m not referring to banks increasing their respective lending rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) can stand aside for the moment because on Melbourne Cup day should it decide to lower the cash rate the major banks won’t be following suit with Westpac, CBA, NAB and ANZ hiking their rates just in the last week. As soon as one moves inevitably the others will all follow although it would be highly unlikely that Westpac will be the next to increase rates.
All eyes should now be on the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) who have now taken over the responsibility of being Australia’s property watchdog. In 39 days the amnesty period for illegal property acquisitions expires and then we will start to see how many have deliberately broken the laws by purchasing Australian real estate – my tip is this will be huge where we can expect 2016 to be the year of the Divestment Order.
This may surprise you that there is a much larger property investigation that will have a significant impact on Australia’s property industry. That being Student Visa Holders who are allowed to purchase a property whilst completing their tertiary studies on the proviso that when they have completed their degrees the subject property must then be sold. The only problem is that Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) who are entrusted to monitor such acquisitions have never actually followed through so we now have no idea how many thousands of properties this includes.
To make matters worse on 18 December 2008, the Rudd Government changed the policy where Student Visa Holder residents in Australia are no longer subject to a $300,000 limit on the value of an established dwelling as their residence. This then saw some students acquiring multi – million dollar residences. Also temporary residents were not required to notify FIRB of any intended acquisitions for established dwellings that were to be their principal place of residence.
Again we are talking about thousands and thousands of transactions where many will now end up with Divestment Orders.
The RBA this week declared in its biannual Financial Stability Review that “Recent investigations by regulators have revealed that standards were somewhat weaker than had originally been thought.” In that case any significant increase in property volumes onto the market would see prices coming down as these are established properties, so unlike off–the–plan properties where 100% can be sold offshore to non-Australian residents.
We are now seeing the housing price growth at its slowest pace since 2012 – which explains why the ATO have a duty of care when they start issuing Divestment Orders. We can also expect to see many households fixing interest rates on their respective mortgages.
A positive sign for those renting, when last Friday the Australian Bureau of Statistics finally got around to updating Australia’s housing occupancy data (the last release was in 2013), the proportion of those renting has edged up to 31.4% with 63.4% of Australians renting being under 35. To further identify just how big the investment market for real estate in Australia is, 1.5 million households now own investment properties on top of their principal place of residence.
Whilst the finger is clearly pointed at negative gearing (I will address that next week) when it was introduced in the late 1990’s, approximately 40% of houses were owned outright with only 28% renting.
The issues are clear in that we have problems with policy making, and that requires urgent attention although this has not been helped with actual mortgage interest rates falling from 7.1% to 4.7% over the past five years.
Property is all about supply vs demand – supply is what we need to be paying closer attention to, so watch the ATO with great interest. Who would have ever thought the ATO would play a central position with Australia’s property markets.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 104 • Number of houses on the market last week – 61
• Number of houses on the market this week – 64
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 65
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 59
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 19
• Number of houses on the market last week – 9
• Number of houses on the market this week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 32
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 23
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 22
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 13
•Number of houses on the market this week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 51
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 32
*Number of apartments on the market this week – 33
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Concerns about upcoming Divestment Orders: Robert Simeon

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The property markets in Sydney and Melbourne have gone too far in being overvalued, AMP Capital Investors' chief economist Shane Oliver said at the Asia-Pacific Banking &amp; Finance's breakfast in Sydney this week.
The markets were overvalued despite higher property prices being driven by "fundamentals."
"Interest rates are at record lows and [are] lower than the 1950s - before Marcia Brady was born. The market has gone too far, is overvalued and there is a high degree of euphoric buying," he said.
Sydney property prices have risen close to 20% in the past 12 months and Melbourne, 12%. 
Dr Oliver said the bubble characteristic of  'fear of missing out' had set in and buyers, particularly in Sydney, had become irrational," he said.
Another bubble characteristic of flipping – speculative quick buying and re-selling of properties - wasn't as evident he said, as "it's quite hard to flip in Australia given high selling costs."
While the Australian "property bubble" will not burst, Dr Oliver said the frenzy must slow.
Dr Oliver dismissed the idea that foreign buyers were responsible for driving property prices up.
"They're just the sideshow, just as self-managed super funds and negative gearing are. They are contributors but the greater problem is the lack of supply of housing."
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Shane Oliver sees bubble FOMO - fear of missing out - signs in irrational overpaying 

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ANZ deputy chief executive Graham Hodges told a federal parliamentary inquiry into home ownership last week ANZ did not see any housing bubble.
The rapid rise in house prices in Sydney in the past couple of years had followed a long period of flat prices from the 2000s to around late 2010, he noted.
"I think these price movements do tend to go a little bit in waves, but clearly it's an expensive city to buy a house in," he told the inquiry on Friday.
"It certainly does affect affordability, but we wouldn't say it's necessarily a bubble."
The ANZ submission said the housing sector continued to see considerable activity and new investment, and was performing more strongly than much of the rest of the Australian economy.
"Housing price rises, especially in Sydney and Melbourne where foreign investment in residential real estate is greatest, are attributable to a combination of factors: underlying demand for housing, positive market sentiment, and the construction industry responding to these conditions.
"Outside Sydney and Melbourne, housing sales, prices and construction are more subdued.
"The housing market in these regions reflects the flat economic conditions and does not benefit from strong investor demand."
It advised in the absence of an unexpected sharp economic downturn, ANZ remained optimistic about the housing market outlook.
"Supply continues to be tight relative to demand and an extended period of low interest rates is expected."
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ANZ doesn't see housing bubble

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The opening statement made by Lindsay David for the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics Inquiry into Home Ownership.
To be frank, the evidence suggests that on the back of irrational exuberance, Australia is experiencing what can only be described as a classic debt-financed speculative housing bubble with every metric that evidenced the bubble in the US and Ireland present within our economic system today.
To put things in perspective, between the June quarter 1996 (when real housing prices first began to rise) and the December quarter of 2014, real housing prices rose by approximately 131%.
But over this same period, inflation rose by 60%, our population grew by 30%, real GDP by 79%, real rents by 21% and real household income by 39%. In short, the growth of housing prices has completely outstripped all economic fundamentals except for the expansion of household debt.
Over the same period, total household liabilities boomed from 54% relative to GDP to 118%. And today, Australian households now owe creditors close to $2 trillion and rising. Never has our household sector been as indebted as it is today.
Between 2002 and mid-2015 the mortgage books at the Big 4 banks, NAB, ANZ, CBA and Westpac grew by 388%, 435%, 475% and 554% respectively.
In 2002, just the size of the mortgage books at the Commonwealth Bank and Westpac combined was equivalent to 18% of GDP. Today, its stands at 44% of GDP and continues to rise.
In 2002, the mortgage book of Westpac suggests that for every dollar it had loaned to an owner occupier, it had lent 45 cents to property investors. By April 2015, the proportion rose to 81 cents.
It is truly surprising these patterns of rapid growth have not been of profound concern to the RBA, APRA or Treasury over this thirteen-year period for where data is freely available and states the blatantly obvious.
Australia has spent the better part of fifteen years avoiding the primary reason as to why house prices have boomed above fundamentals such as rents, incomes, inflation and GDP – which happens to be debt-financed speculation.
Our grossly undercapitalized, overleveraged, foreign funds-reliant banking system has artificially stimulated demand for real estate in what is an unaffordable market by consistently lending irrational sums of debt to owner-occupiers and investors. The public is also caught up in a mania of irrational exuberance, which combined explains why housing prices across Australia are as high as they are today. The evidence outlined in our submission suggests this to be the case.
To put it into perspective how expensive land is across Australia, you can find cheaper blocks of land per square meter on the hills of Malibu, California with a view of the Pacific Ocean than you can find in locales like Alice Springs or St Marys. Representatives, this is not normal, and quite frankly, laughable if the matter was not so serious.
For too long, Australian policymakers with authority and regulatory power have ignored all the warning signs pointing to a credit-fuelled housing bubble. Yet, over the years have implemented various policies to stimulate the price of housing and the rapidly growing risk home owners and property investors accumulate in order to keep house prices abnormally high whilst making various interventions that stick out like a sore thumb every time household credit expanded below a perceived comfort level.
LINDSAY DAVID is the author of <a href="https://blog.australiaboomtobust.com/2015/02/lindsay-davids-new-book-print-central-bankers-bubble-now-available/">Australia: Boom to Bust and Print: The Central Bankers Bubble.</a> David holds an MBA from IMD Business School and recently founded <a href="https://www.lfeconomics.com/about">LF Economics</a>.
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A classic debt-financed speculative housing bubble: Lindsay David

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The Nobel Prize for Economics 2002 winner, Professor Vernon Smith says both Sydney and Melbourne are in a property bubble, but queries whether it will burst as badly as the US bubble.
Debt will be the key to the outcome, with Australia's flexible mortgages helping ameliorate the danger, Professor Smith said.
"It is amazing how people get carried away in the bubble," he says. "Then all of a sudden it's over and they are petrified."
He will explain more tonight in his address at the Macquarie Graduate School of Management dinner on global property prices and the Australian property market.
"You have a pretty good bubble in Sydney and Melbourne," he told Robert Harley at the Australian Financial Review on his research so far on the recent price spurt.
"It is hard to believe it is very sustainable."
He says housing bubbles are commonplace in history and most of the time they're not devastating.
He noted in the US in the recent Great Recession, similar to the Depression "it was what I like to call a balance sheet recession with property values falling against fixed long term debt.
"Total equity in all US homes peaked in 2006 at something over $US13 trillion, then hit $5.5 trillion," he noted adding in the 1930s Depression, when housing equity declined by 33 per cent, it took 13 years to recover.
"We came out of the Depression with right lessons … but the rules got eroded." 
Professor Smith acknowledged the tight supply, the rental market resilience and mortgages on only 5.3 million of Australia's 9.5 million homes.
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Noble Prize economics winner says Sydney and Melbourne in property bubble

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It was almost six months ago that a WA mining town home auction shocked the nation.
The ABC reported on a Port Hedland February auction where the fibro cottage was passed in at auction for $360,000 unsold.
Its highest offer reflecting 2006 price levels.
Immediately after the auction came its declared $600,000 asking price, then $590,000 in March.
It had last traded four years ago for $1.3 million, and before that at $870,000 in 2009 and at $350,000 nine years ago in 2006. 
This month it had yet another asking price reduction - down from $470,000 to<a href="https://www.janfordrealestate.com.au/1928630/" target="_blank"> $435,000</a>. 
The three bedroom, one bathroom 1960s house sits in the heart of the Western Australian mining town. It is within the business and commercial district, opposite developments and not far from the boat ramp, Marapikarrinya Park, and fishing wharf.
<img src="/images/2015/06/17/700_headland.jpg" alt="" style="line-height: 1.3em;">
Real estate agent Barry Walsh at Jan Ford Real Estate told the ABC the top February bid was a sign the mining boom's construction phase had tapered off.
Negotiations continue for the sale of the cottage with 145 square space on its 600 square metre block.
It was initially listed for private treaty sale in June 2013 at $1.42 million.
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Port Hedland asking prices fall further

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The ANZ Asian analyst Martin Whetton does not believe the pricking of the sharemarket bubble in China will seriously affect Chinese buying of Australian apartments and dwellings when asked by Business Spectator's Robert Gottliebsen. 
RG: Do you think that the Asian investors and the Chinese investors will keep pumping money in to our apartments?
MW: Well yeah, probably they will. I guess, if you look at the perspective of the size of how much money there is in China and, as I said before, about 20 per cent of the household wealth is tied up in property and equities. If more of the household wealth was tied up in property outside of the country, if they were to say we don’t want to own Chinese property anymore, we don’t want to own Chinese equities, and they had that liquidity themselves, I guess a relatively liquid asset like Australian property would be something that is still appealing to them. It’s still a market that’s going up for them at the moment and with the size of the Chinese population, I think there probably still would be some encouragement for that to happen.
At the same time, I guess you could argue if they ran out of money, which I don’t think is a hugely strong argument at this point, but if they were to run out of money, then there would be a slowing down of the natural number of people coming in from China to buy in the property market. I think the pace of that would slow naturally anyway, not through any discouragement from the state governments, at least on the east coast, who are swimming in the revenues of property turnover, but probably for the moment I would say you’re still going to get some buoyancy from China.
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ANZ's Martin Whetton sees no halt by China in Australian property acquisitions

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Business commentator David Koch has called time of the "incredible run in this country over the last decade."
And he says that doesn't mean that property is a bubble that's about to pop.
"The days of breakneck growth in capital city property prices are coming to an end… as we've seen in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide residential property prices can fall.
"The booms in Sydney and Melbourne are now running out of steam," he wrote in his Daily Telegraph column.
"While we don't think there is a nationwide property bubble, Sydney and Melbourne are definitely looking overheated," he wrote.
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David Koch says Sydney's home price growth running out of steam 

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News Ltd columnist Alan Kohler says it will take nothing short of a recession to bring Australian house prices down.
Australian house prices were not in a bubble, but instead, in a "new normal" and are not going to come down on their own, the columnist said.
But he noted Deloitte Access Economics’ latest economic outlook where director Chris Richardson said: “The chance of a recession is higher now than it’s been for quite some time. China’s economy is the key.”
Alan Kohler referenced the RBA's recent comments:
“…there are no examples internationally of large falls in nominal housing prices that have occurred other than through significant reduction in capacity to pay (e.g. recession and high unemployment).”
And: “There is no mechanism to get a large and sustained level shift down in prices while a substantial fraction of the population can -- safely and sustainably -- service the obligations involved in paying the higher price.”
Finally: “…there is no example in Australia or internationally where supply expansion on its own generated housing price declines of a similar order of magnitude to the increases in prices seen in some Australian cities in recent years.”
Noting what’s happening in China, Alan Kohler suggested there is no chance of interest rates going up, so serviceability is only likely to improve.
"In fact, rates are more likely to come down further to try to prevent a recession here."
Kohler concluded the one bright spot was the big increase in the supply of apartments, which has resulted in smaller price rises among apartments than house, especially in Melbourne.
"Those who own a house already are winners; those who don’t will have to buy a flat."
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