ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.

Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.

That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.

The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.

The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.

Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.

Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.

The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.

Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.

Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.

That’s important.

While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.

ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.

That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.

However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.

The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.

ANZ is less convinced.

The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.

That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.

If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.

It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.

The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.

On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.

For now, the Board is choosing to wait.

But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.

In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.

For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.

And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.

According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.

The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]

The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.

Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.

VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.

“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]

The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.

The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.

Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.

The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.

The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]

VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.

The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.

For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.

Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.

Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.

<img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" />

At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.

That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.

The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.

The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.

Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.

Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.

&nbsp;

The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.

Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.

The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.

The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.

One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.

The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.

The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.

Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.

New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.

The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.

Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.

It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.

Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.

Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.

The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.

This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.

Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.

That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

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If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.

“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Brisbane Market

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The Sydney housing market is starting to slow following more than five years of strong increases in dwelling values.
As the Sydney market slows there could be some upside for other housing markets where capital gains have been more sustainable and rental yields are higher.
Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, has recently garnered more attention as a candidate for improved housing market conditions.
In this week’s blog we look at the historic relationship between housing market growth in Sydney and Brisbane in order to determine whether the slowdown in Sydney could translate into an acceleration in Brisbane.
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeindwellingvalues" width="570" height="198">
The 30 year annual change chart above tends to indicate that after a surge in Sydney dwelling values Brisbane has followed suit thereafter.  
Following Sydney dwelling value growth peaking at 61.7% p.a. in August 1988, Brisbane dwelling value growth peaked at an annual rate of 35.3% in February 1989.  
Annual growth in Sydney dwelling values also peaked in January 2002 at 20.8% with Brisbane’s rate of growth not peaking until December 2003 at 30.7%.  
Keep in mind that outside of these two clear examples, a rise in Sydney value growth has not necessarily been met with a rise in Brisbane (or vice versa).
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--sydneydwellingvaluepremiumrelativetobrisbane" width="570" height="198">
  What the growth of Sydney values in 1988 and 2001 did have in common is that they resulted in a significant gap opening between values in Sydney and Brisbane.  
At its peak in August 1988, Sydney dwelling values were typically 104% more than Brisbane dwellings.  
At its height in September 2001, Sydney dwelling values were 107% higher than Brisbane dwelling prices.  
Recently the chart shows that the gap between values in Sydney and Brisbane has increased and at September 2017 the differential was 86%.  
The long-term average premium for Sydney dwellings over Brisbane is 55% indicating that the gap remains above the long-term average.  Interestingly, even taking a shorter time-frame the average gap has been 56% over the past 20 years and a lower 41% over the past decade.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--quarterlyinterstatemigrationfromnswtoqld" width="570" height="198">
  Queensland has historically been a popular migration destination for people choosing to leave New South Wales.  
The above chart highlights that following the surge in value growth and the widening of dwelling prices between Sydney and Brisbane, migration from New South Wales to Queensland has typically increased.  
Over the long-term, the average quarterly number of persons migrating from New South Wales to Queensland has been recorded at 12,376 persons.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked over the March 1989 quarter at 18,259 persons and then averaged 14,461 persons per quarter from March 1989 to December 1991.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked again in December 2002 at 18,129 persons and then averaged 15,392 persons per quarter from December 2002 to September 2004.
As migration from New South Wales to Queensland has recently picked-up, so far it has peaked at a much lower 13,487 persons over the December 2016 quarter which is only 9.0% above the long-term average.  
By comparison the 1989 peak saw migration to Queensland peak at 47.5% above the long-run average and the 2002 peak saw migration peak at 46.5% above the long-run average.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeinemployment" width="570" height="198">
  Unless those people migrating from New South Wales to Queensland are retirees, employment opportunities must be a key consideration.  
Post the 1987 boom in Sydney, New South Wales employment growth was slowing while it accelerated in Queensland.  
Similarly in the early 2000’s employment growth had been greater in New South Wales than in Queensland however, by June 2001 Queensland’s employment was growing at a faster annual rate than New South Wales’ with Queensland employment growth consistently stronger than New South Wales all the way until January 2008.  
Over this period, dwelling value growth in Brisbane had consistently been stronger than growth in Sydney.  
Looking more recently, New South Wales has consistently recorded stronger annual employment growth than Queensland between September 2014 and March 2017.  Since April 2017, annual employment growth in Queensland has been greater than in New South Wales.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/20174-10-09-blogimage5.png" alt="2017-10-09--unemploymentratetrend" width="570" height="198">
  Although employment growth is important, the unemployment rate is also a consideration.  
Although job creation picked up in Queensland after 1987, Queensland’s unemployment rate was consistently higher than New South Wales’ until October 1991 when it was fairly similar to that of New South Wales.  
By August 1992 Queensland’s unemployment rate fell below New South Wales’ and remained lower until December 1994.  
The New South Wales unemployment rate was then consistently lower than Queensland’s until July 2004 with Queensland’s unemployment rate remaining lower than News South Wales’ from July 2004 until late 2009 (thankyou mining boom!).  
From February 2010 onwards, Queensland is yet to chalk up one month in which its unemployment rate is lower than New South Wales’.  Interestingly though, the gap between the New South Wales and Queensland unemployment rate is currently lower (1.1 basis points) than it was as the Sydney housing market was peaking in August 1988 (1.5 basis points) and January 2002 (1.9 basis points).
The trends presented here would generally suggest that Brisbane could be well positioned for a pick-up in value growth as the Sydney housing market slows.  
Keep in mind though that there have been instances in the past where value growth has surged in Sydney and it hasn’t been followed by a surge in Brisbane, so a lift in Brisbane growth is no certainty.  
A significant gap in the cost of housing between the two cities was evident in both 1989 and 2002 and it also evident currently.  As value growth rose in Brisbane, interstate migration from New South Wales hit levels significantly above the long-term average and although interstate migration is increasing it is yet to hit anything close to those previous highs.  Employment growth is accelerating in Queensland which may encourage an increasing number of people from New South Wales to Queensland and the differential in unemployment rate is smaller than it was in 1989 and 2002.
One other consideration is whether the same magnitude of people leaving New South Wales for Queensland will actually settle in Brisbane.  
Both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are much bigger cities in their own right than they were in 1989 and 2002 plus connectivity with Brisbane is much better than it was previously, so perhaps these migrants will be more inclined to settle on one of the Coasts rather than Brisbane.  
Over the 12 months to September 2017, Brisbane dwelling values have increased by 2.9% while values on the Gold Coast are 5.4% higher over the year and Sunshine Coast values are 6.6%. 
In my opinion, before we can call a coming surge in Brisbane dwelling values we are going to need to see both more evidence that migrants are settling in Brisbane rather than the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.  Migration from New South Wales to Queensland is going to have to lift by a lot more than it has to-date.  Finally, Queensland will also need to see a sustained improvement in employment growth to lure more people across the border.
 
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Sydney housing market starting to slow: will Brisbane benefit?

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Brisbane shows how complex markets can be and illustrates the folly of generalisation. 
My winter survey of sales activity and prices reveals that the number of rising markets across the Brisbane metro area is matched by the number of declining/danger areas – and in between are the majority of suburbs which are consistency or plateau markets.
Brisbane’s data shows the impact of the Covid-19 shutdown while also displaying a good level of resilience. The number of suburbs with rising sales activity (28) is lower than the Autumn 2020 survey (37), but better than at the same time last year (24).
There continues to be a high level of consistency markets (50 suburbs, down slightly from 56 in the previous survey). The existence of 28 growth suburbs and 50 consistency suburbs shows a solid degree of resistance to the virus crisis period. But also significant is the 113 plateau markets (suburbs where sales activity has dropped below the previous levels), the highest in three years.
Brisbane also has 21 suburbs ranked as declining markets, slightly fewer than in the previous quarterly survey (23) and substantially lower than six months ago (32). There are also seven danger markets, ones where sales activity and prices are down and vacancies are uncomfortably high.
The Brisbane market was poised for a long overdue boom before Covid-19 struck. As we wrote in the previous edition: “Every statistic that matters depicts uplift in the Brisbane market and prices are expected to rise in 2020. Many commentators have forecast a Brisbane boom in recent years, though many were simply assuming that the Queensland capital would follow the lead of Melbourne and Sydney. Brisbane, however, has lacked the core growth drivers that boosted markets in the two biggest cities.
“But, increasingly, growth parameters are lining up for Brisbane. Population data is favourable, the affordability comparison is helpful, surveyed investors say they are targeting Brisbane – and the major piece of the puzzle previously missing, infrastructure spending, is starting to happen.”
Because of those factors, we believe Brisbane will return to strength quickly in the recovery-from-corona phase.
As we often find with these surveys, there is particular strength in the northern suburbs of Brisbane – the Brisbane North precinct and the Moreton Bay LGA jointly account for half of the 28 suburbs ranked as rising markets. The southside has many of the struggling markets and Brisbane’s inner-city provides all of the danger markets.
In our analysis we divide the sprawling Brisbane City LGA into five precincts (inner, north, south, east and west) while the more distant parts of the metro area are covered by the LGAs of Ipswich, Logan, Redland and Moreton Bay – a total of nine precincts. 
The Brisbane North precinct and its neighbour Moreton Bay Region are the standouts, as they have been in our surveys in the past.
The Moreton Bay Region LGA has regularly been the best-performing Brisbane market, boosted by affordability, good infrastructure and proximity to employment nodes (including a new university campus). And its status has been enhanced in this survey, with the number of rising suburbs increasing from eight to nine. This LGA also has 10 suburbs ranked as consistency markets, which overall creates a strong result for this precinct in a virus-impacted market.
Leading suburbs include Petrie (quarterly sales of 43-47-53-69-66), Strathpine (65-79-81-83) and Banksia Beach (46-54-67-68-70).
Brisbane North has 5 suburbs classified as rising markets, 9 ranked as consistency markets and none ranked as declining or danger markets. There are two particular clusters with strongly-performing suburbs: the inner north (which includes suburbs like Newmarket, Windsor, Stafford and Kedron), and the north-east precinct (which includes Nudgee, Nundah, Northgate and Wavell Heights). 
Ashgrove, with quarterly sales of 54-57-60-71-74, is typical of the suburbs with rising trajectories. Zillmere (42-47-49-56-62-64) is another of the growth markets.
The other standout market to emerge in this survey is the Brisbane-east precinct, which has five growth suburbs, seven consistency markets and no locations ranked as declining or danger markets. Leading locations include Wynnum West (54-67-74-80) and Murarrie (22-28-29-35-47-51).
The Brisbane-inner precinct is a confusion of suburbs with contrasting rankings: the 22 ranked suburbs include 2 rising, 17 plateau, 1 consistency, 2 declining and 7 danger. The danger markets (Albion, Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Kelvin Grove, South Brisbane, West End and Woolloongabba) are those where sales activity has dropped markedly, prices are down and vacancy rates are high – particularly with a recent virus-related surge in empty apartments in the inner-city areas.
Logan City in the far south of the Brisbane metro area continues to struggle. It has 12 suburbs with declining sales activity. But there are also signs of life, with two rising suburbs and five consistency suburbs.
Brisbane is split almost 50-50 between markets where prices are up in annual terms and those where prices have fallen in the past 12 months: 52% of apartment markets have recorded annual growth and 44% of house markets have risen, providing an overall result of 46% growth markets and 54% with falling prices.
In most cases, whether rising or falling, the change has been minor (less than 5% in the past year).
Leading suburbs for growth in their median house prices include Coorparoo (16%), Morningside (13%), St Lucia (15%) and Windsor (22%), but the market leader is Fig Tree Pocket, where the median price has increased 32% to $1.18 million. 
Among the unit markets, the best for annual growth in median prices have been Bulimba (23%, Mango Hill (13%), Alderley (12% and Annerley (11%).
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="mailto:%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%5Cn%20&lt;/script&gt;&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;This%20email%20address%20is%20being%20protected%20from%20spambots.%20You%20need%20JavaScript%20enabled%20to%20view%20it.%20&lt;script%20type='text/javascript'&gt;%20%20&lt;/script&gt;"></a><a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
 
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Brisbane real estate a mix of growth, consistent, plateauing and declining suburbs: Hotspotting’s Terry Ryder

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Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee says only about 10 per cent of residential sales in Queensland utilise the auction process. 
“Brisbane’s not a big auction market anyway so it won’t have the same impact we’ll see in Melbourne and Sydney,” Ms Conisbee told realestate.com.au.
Realestate.com.au has launched <a href="https://help.realestate.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/360001177803-How-to-add-a-video-or-a-3D-tour-to-a-listing" target="_blank">virtual tours of properties</a> listed on its site to help home hunters.
"To continue to view properties online, it introduced digital inspections showing all the features.
“For people looking to buy, the bigger deal will be not being able to go into the home,” Ms Conisbee said.
There are two main ways of going about adding a video or a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://help.realestate.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/360000354766">three-dimensional tour</a> to a listing.
The first being via an <a href="https://help.realestate.com.au/hc/en-us/articles/115004480103-Search-a-listing-in-Agent-Admin" target="_blank">Agent Admin</a> where you will need to find the listing. When you have found the listing, through the 'Images and Copy' tab, scroll down to 'Links'. This is where you can add video links to the Video URL field, or Online Tour 1 field for 3D tours. 
A video or 3D tour can also be added via your third-party listing uploader where you would have to update the listing directly through its portal. 
There are a range of 3D tour companies that can be embedded in the image carousel of Realestate.com.au listings. For instance, Scann3D, Ticketyview, DIAKRIT, Augment Space, Google Tour Creator, Virtual Tours Creator, CampaignTrack and BWRM. 
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Brisbane won't be as affected by onsite auction ban as Sydney and Melbourne

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Government, co-workers, and other flexible office space providers, are driving the Inner Brisbane office leasing market, according to independent valuer m3property’s latest report.
The Inner Brisbane Office: September 2019 report also found the continued expansion of flexible office space providers had been a key contributor to the declining vacancy rate over the past 18 months.
It found that while vacancy would increase to circa 13.5% by the end of 2019, on the back of the completion of 300 George Street, it would continue to trend downwards to be circa 11% to 11.5% by the end of 2021.
Report author, m3property’s Director of Research in Brisbane, Casey Robinson, said lease renewals had more than doubled as a proportion of total leases, from 13% in 2017 to 30% in 2019.
"We have seen leasing activity strengthen over the past year and that has been driven by governments, the continued expansion of the co-working and flexible office space sector, and construction and engineering firms involved in major projects, as well as general growth in white collar employing industries," Robinson said.
The report forecast effective rents to continue to nudge upwards over the short-term while incentives, now entrenched in the Brisbane office market, are expected to trend downwards over the medium- to long-term, stabilising around the 25% mark.
Commercial Director at m3property, Michael Coverdale, said weaker business confidence and cost/business efficiencies were also behind a trend to reduce footprints with a number of corporates including Arrow Energy, Shell, Cardno and Insurance Group Australia downsizing at lease renewal.
"The growth in flexible working space options, which is providing organisations with the ability to expand and contract space requirements as required, is another important factor," Mr Coverdale added.
He said there was also evidence to show reducing footprints had driven tenants to seek newer buildings especially those that offered more flexible work spaces.
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Government and co-workers drive Brisbane leasing market, according to report 

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The Brisbane apartment market will continues to stabilise, a new report from JLL said.
The firm’s Australia Residential Research - April 2019 said that as supply and demand recalibrate, the Inner Brisbane apartment market will continue to stabilise throughout 2019 and into 2020.
“Inner Brisbane’s apartment supply has been steadily declining since 2016,” it said.
“In 2018, supply was around 27% below that peak.”
Supply forecasts for 2019 are estimated at 40% below 2018, and less than half of the 2016 peak.
“As poor sentiment and apprehensions around oversupply receded, the medium-term outlook for Brisbane’s inner city apartments is increasingly bright,” JLL said.
“While credit conditions and the Federal election will keep activity subdued in the short-term, a rapidly improving supply/demand balance should see Brisbane lead the next residential cycle.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/31/New%20Project%2014.jpg" alt=""> 
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Underlying demand will continue to be boosted by robust population growth, particularly net interstate migration.
“Increased infrastructure investment and an improving labour market should both support the local economy,” the report said.
“Steady population growth will continue to support underlying demand and aid the absorption of excess apartment stock.”
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/31/New%20Project%2017.jpg" alt="">
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While development conditions remain challenging, supply is expected to remain subdued for several years.
“Developers are unlikely to pursue high density projects over the next few years,” JLL said.
“Instead, they are more likely to focus on ‘less-is-more’, luxury and boutique developments.”
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<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/5/31/New%20Project%2021.jpg" alt="">
Apartment values and rents are expected to stabilise as the market rebalances into 2020.
“Negative price growth continues, but the pace of decline is decelerating,” the report said.
“The rental market is showing strong signs of improvement, with vacancy and rents stabilising.”
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Brisbane apartment market stabilising as demand and supply approach balance: JLL 

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An interesting series of charts was posted by Simon Pressley of Propertyology, showing how a number of Brisbane construction hotspots have seen the rental supply tightening back into balance.
Pressley showed tightening vacancy rates in Nundah (1.6%), Bulimba (2.8%), and Chermside (2.2%) as a few prime examples, while West End and Fortitude Valley were still chewing through the their glut in January 2019. 
A bit closer in, here's New Farm and Teneriffe with the rental supply at the tightest level since 2013.
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BoPSEDLF9Qc/XGclMjbarMI/AAAAAAAAud4/5aE0-lar1Zo7unykmnj8FjPOAHK2U-_JACLcBGAs/s1600/4005.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-BoPSEDLF9Qc/XGclMjbarMI/AAAAAAAAud4/5aE0-lar1Zo7unykmnj8FjPOAHK2U-_JACLcBGAs/s640/4005.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="604" data-original-width="1042"></a>
Source: SQM Research
Hamilton also recorded its lowest vacancy rate since 2013.
Commencements and units under construction have levelled off, while new approvals continue to slide back towards historic averages.
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kFNTHPXnuUc/XGcmXCOSJnI/AAAAAAAAueE/Ux_4nPAi9IIsRykVgkeDyHzIpzust4x3gCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kFNTHPXnuUc/XGcmXCOSJnI/AAAAAAAAueE/Ux_4nPAi9IIsRykVgkeDyHzIpzust4x3gCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="362" data-original-height="799" data-original-width="1409"></a>
And while not all internal migrants head to the capital cities, as I write, this interstate migration to Queensland is at its highest level in about 13 years, those heady pre-crisis days when when the mining boom was in full swing. 
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IuA2xbvjQNk/XGcnJnkNq8I/AAAAAAAAueM/ej7ZA6C_KO0zK7dI3LOhGl_1W6hpYf1gACLcBGAs/s1600/NIM.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IuA2xbvjQNk/XGcnJnkNq8I/AAAAAAAAueM/ej7ZA6C_KO0zK7dI3LOhGl_1W6hpYf1gACLcBGAs/s640/NIM.jpg" width="640" height="372" data-original-height="796" data-original-width="1368"></a>
While developers aim to manage risk as well as they can, there's always an element of forecasting of demand when strategies are put together.
For a while it looked as though the demand for units and rentals wouldn't keep up with the record rates of construction.
But it increasingly looks as though things have swung back into balance in the nick of time, as Queensland draws more and more internal migrants away from the major capitals. 
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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Brisbane filling up with rental supply tightening: Pete Wargent

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Dwelling values across Brisbane look to have seen the worst of their declines, suggests CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australia Home Value Index Forecast.
House price values performed steadily last year across Greater Brisbane, with average gains of between three and four percent.
They are expected to continue to remain steady over 2018 and 2019, with small gains of around two to three percent.
The much publicised apartment oversupply affected apartment values last year, with most areas recording three to four percent losses.
But there's good news on the horizon for apartment values, with a sharp increase predicted in 2019, some areas even seeing increases of nearly seven percent. 
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After a lull in 2012, house prices in Greater Brisbane have seen strong gains as a result of strong local economies, partly tied to strong activity in finance, retail, construction and other sectors.
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In Brisbane-South, comprising Carindale, Holland Park and Sunnybank, house values have risen 40 percent since mid 2012.
Incomes per capita have risen a much smaller 6.7 percent over the period.
The number of houses approved for building reached 5,468 in mid 2016, more than double its 2010 to 2012 average, although approvals have since nearly halved.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/21/bris-approvals.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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The effects of higher supply of houses and muted income growth mean that home values in Brisbane south are forecast to decline 1.5% in 2018, followed by a 1.2% recovery in 2019.
Overall, apartment values across Greater Brisbane are expected to recover 0.8% in 2018.
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The second housing area comprises more ‘lifestyle’ areas, including Sunshine Coast, Wide Bay, and Cairns.
Areas here are expected to perform better over the forecast period, as income growth remains robust and the degree of supply increase is not as great as in areas of Brisbane.
Housing markets in Queensland outside of Brisbane have also not seen the degree of price growth over the past few years. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/6/21/rest-of-qld.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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The Sunshine Coast’s housing market has seen its value increase 32% since a slump in 2012.
Housing values are forecast to rise 5.7% in 2018, and close to 2% in 2019. The relatively stable housing market is a result of low unemployment (at 4.4% it is well below the national and state averages) and good income growth.
Building approvals across the Sunshine Coast have risen over the past two years, but at 5,000 annually they remain within historical averages and well below their rate in prior cycles 2002 and 1995. Similarly, home values in the Gold Coast are forecast to rise nearly 4% in 2018 and 6% in 2019.
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The third housing market region in Queensland is in commodity-producing areas. These include Central Queensland, Mackay-Isaac-Whitsunday, and Darling Downs-Maranoa.
Housing markets here have seen significant value declines over the past few years partly as a result of the end of the mining boom.
In Mackay-Isaac-Whitsunday, house values have declined 32% since June 2012. The reduction in mining investment pushed up unemployment to 9% by 2015 and reduced incomes, which per capita have fallen about 16% since 2010.
Slower population growth has also reduced a source of demand, although this is also working to reduce unemployment.
Further declines in house values are expected before a recovery. 
Sydney's biggest drops are predicted to be in Ryde and the inner city and south areas, while in Melbourne it's the inner south values that are going to take a hit.
Nationally there's set to be a cool, but no crash.
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Brisbane's property values have seen off the worst with price falls: Moody's Analytics

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Brisbane suburbs affected by the 2011 flood are outperforming the rest of the city, new research shows.
RiskWise Property Research said that of the 20 suburbs affected by floods, 19 (or 95%) have outperformed the rest of the city in terms of housing prices.
The location of these suburbs continues to make them attractive to buyers, says RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg.
“After the 2011 floods the perception among property buyers was these areas would be looked at negatively and prices would fall, or at least deliver very poor capital growth” Peleg said.
“But our research has shown the reality is completely different and the demand for them has eclipsed the negative perception.
“This is because these high-flood areas are truly well located on the river which is in high demand.
“Also, statistically floods like those in 2011 are a once-in-a-50-year event and that makes these homes a risk people are willing to accept.”
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Peleg said many of these areas are subject to rezoning which makes them attractive to developers.
He said when considering buying property in a flood area purchasers should do a risk assessment of the suburb, the type of property they want to buy as well as what the risk for the specific property was.
“Also, that's why we have insurance companies. And while they have revised their product offerings and premiums, which no doubt will be quite high, it is still possible to get insurance.”
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Suburbs most affected by Brisbane floods outperforming rest of city

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Fund manager Clarence Property has purchased The Zone shopping centre at Underwood in south-east Brisbane.
Paying $31.25 million, The Zone was purchased at a 7.85% yield.
Its anchor retailers include OfficeWorks, Rebel Sport, Good Price Pharmacy and Best Friends Pet Warehouse.
It will be within Clarence Property's flagship unlisted Westlawn Property Trust which has more than $250 million in assets between Yamba and the Sunshine Coast.
Its target asset allocation is about 30 to 45% retail, especially high-yield neighbourhood shopping centres in growth regions.
It started in Grafton some two decades ago, expanding its strong presence in northern New South Wales into south-east Queensland.
The Zone is a sub-regional large format shopping centre 16 kilometres south of the Brisbane CBD.
It is made up of four buildings of about 11,000 square metres on a 2.85-hectare site on the corner of Compton and Kingston roads.
It opened in 2005.
CBRE's Joe Tynan, Peter Rossi, Michael Hedger and Nick Willis negotiated the sale of the property for a private Queensland investor.
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