For most new apartment buildings, the Owners Corporation starts life with little more than a bank account and the first quarterly strata levies.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/9-gay-street-castle-hill-9-gay-street-castle-hill-nsw-2154">9 Gay Street</a> in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a>, it starts with around $7 million in reserve.

It's an unusual legacy of what was once one of Sydney's highest-profile apartment remediation projects. When the development, originally known as Skyview and built by disgraced developer Top Place, came under scrutiny by then NSW Building Commissioner David Chandler, an $11 million remediation bond was negotiated to ensure any building defects could be fully rectified.

The building underwent an 18-month remediation program, during which around $4 million of that bond was spent bringing the building up to the standard it should have been in from the outset.

After extensive inspections, all active rectification orders have been lifted. What's more, around $7.2 million remains secured for the Owners Corporation for the next 15 years.

In a twist few would have predicted, what began as a significant concern for purchasers has left the building with something almost unheard of in the apartment market: a multi-million-dollar financial reserve from day one.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359136]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a> Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said the structure offers buyers a level of certainty that is difficult to replicate.

"The $11 million bond established for the Skyview Castle Hill development represents exceptional value, providing genuine financial security for purchasers," Huxley said.

"Unlike a standard insurance policy, this bond consists of real funds held in trust for the Owners Corporation, offering a tangible layer of protection and added peace of mind."

The apartments themselves have been designed with a focus on practical, contemporary living. Interiors feature Smeg appliances, stone benchtops, tiled living areas, carpeted bedrooms, 2.7-metre ceilings, floor-to-ceiling glazing, and ducted heating and cooling throughout.

Residents also have access to a range of shared amenities, including two rooftop barbecue areas, a swimming pool, children's playgrounds, secure building access, storage cages, and visitor parking.

The location continues to be one of the project's strongest drawcards. Castle Hill Metro Station sits virtually on the doorstep, providing direct connections across Sydney's expanding Metro network, while Castle Towers offers extensive retail, dining, entertainment, and service amenities within walking distance.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359127]

The building, now named after its location at 9 Gay Street, comprises a diverse mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments starting from just under $600,000.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett said demand in the Hills District continues to be driven by buyers seeking convenience and connectivity.

"Interest from both owner-occupiers and investors in Castle Hill remains exceptionally strong, with buyers consistently prioritising developments in close proximity to the Metro station and Castle Towers Shopping Centre," Hamblett said.

"There is a clear trend in the market, with purchasers seeking convenient access to transport and lifestyle amenities that support a seamless, low-maintenance way of living."

On top of the long-term protection afforded by the remaining $7.2 million bond, Equitifund is offering a limited-time stamp duty rebate on selected apartments.

Eligible purchasers can also secure finance options, including a 3.99 per cent two-year variable rate, loan-to-value ratios of up to 90 per cent, and interest-only lending options through EquitiCredit.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147685]

Joel Robinson

Why this Castle Hill apartment building starts with a $7 million advantage

For much of the past few years, conversations about Australia's property market have centred on the rapid growth seen in Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Perth. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3004">Melbourne</a> has followed a different trajectory.

That relative underperformance is now encouraging some buyers to reassess the city, particularly those willing to look beyond short-term market movements and focus on quality property in established locations, along with the long-term growth prospects of a city expected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s most populous.

John Bekiaris, Research &amp; Market Insights at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Projects by Equitifund</a>, said Melbourne's current position is attracting increasingly sophisticated purchasers.

"Melbourne continues to present one of Australia's strongest long-term investment stories," Bekiaris says.

"While other capital cities have experienced stronger recent growth, that relative underperformance is exactly what's attracting sophisticated counter-cyclical investors."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363268]

Equitifund isn't just commenting on Melbourne's property market, it's investing in it.

The Sydney-headquartered capital partner has taken over the remaining apartments at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/victoriana-melbourne-20-queens-road-melbourne-vic-3004">Victoriana</a>, the recently completed glass-encased development opposite Albert Park Lake in Melbourne's tightly held St Kilda Road precinct.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hickory">Hickory</a>, Victoriana places residents between one of Melbourne's most recognised parklands and the CBD, offering oversized two and three-bedroom apartments aimed at owner-occupiers seeking a genuine alternative to a traditional family home.

The development comprises 232 completed residences alongside a suite of resident amenities, including a 25-metre indoor swimming pool, gymnasium, landscaped entertaining areas, resident lounges, EV charging, secure basement parking and a concierge-style arrival experience.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363229]

The apartments have been designed with owner-occupiers firmly in mind.&nbsp;Open-plan living and dining areas flow onto generous balconies framing views across Albert Park Lake, Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens and the Melbourne skyline.

Kitchens feature Gaggenau appliances, stone benchtops and generous preparation space. Bedrooms include built-in robes, while bathrooms feature full-height textured tiling. Hardwood flooring and ducted air conditioning complete residences designed for long-term living.

Rothelowman's architecture takes its cues from the landscape opposite the site. Sweeping horizontal glazing references the movement of Albert Park Lake, while generous balconies and expansive glazing strengthen the connection between the apartments and the surrounding parklands. The result is a building designed to deliver the scale and amenity expected of luxury apartment living, while offering the larger floorplans increasingly sought by owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363284]

The location is one of Victoriana's defining characteristics. Positioned on Queens Road, residents are directly opposite Albert Park Lake and within easy reach of Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens, South Melbourne, St Kilda Road and the CBD. With few comparable development opportunities remaining in the precinct, buyers are increasingly placing value on outlooks that are unlikely to be interrupted by future construction.

Greg Huxley, Founder of Equitifund, believes those qualities become even more valuable over time.

"Premium real estate has always rewarded buyers who take a long-term view," Huxley said.

"Victoriana represents the kind of asset that's increasingly difficult to recreate today, particularly in an established location like Queens Road."

He said rising construction costs are also changing the way buyers assess completed developments.

"When you combine an irreplaceable location with thoughtful architecture and premium finishes, you create something that becomes increasingly difficult to reproduce as construction costs continue to rise."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363228]

According to National Sales Director Ben Hamblett, enquiry has been driven largely by Melbourne downsizers and buyers upgrading from smaller apartments.

"Interest in Victoriana continues to build, with strong buyer focus on the larger owner-occupier residences within the development," Hamblett says.

"Enquiry is increasingly driven by local buyers who recognise the rarity of what's on offer: park-facing apartments in an established neighbourhood where new development opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce. At Victoriana, the view is not just a feature; it's an appreciating asset in its own right."

He said interstate enquiry has also strengthened as buyers reassess Melbourne's position within the national property cycle.

"Melbourne currently stands as the most compelling entry point of any major Australian capital, and discerning buyers are beginning to recognise what those who move early always understand: the best opportunities are taken before the price rise confirms them."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=1979]

Why now is the time to buy in Melbourne's premium apartment market

Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Banking Reform

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The government is acting on all 76 of Justice Hayne’s recommendations.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was glossing over history when he said the <a href="https://financialservices.royalcommission.gov.au/Pages/reports.aspx" target="_blank">final report of the banking royal commission</a> “endorsed many of the themes and individual reforms the government is currently pursuing”.
In fact, on coming to office in late 2013, his government – through Finance Minister Mathias Cormann - <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/how-the-coalition-ran-interference-for-the-banks-20180425-p4zbjz" target="_blank">did the opposite</a>.
Instead of extending provisions in the law that financial service providers act in the “best interests” of their clients, it tried to remove them, pressing Senate independents to have them excised from the at-the-time unimplemented Future of Financial Advice Act.
It argued there would be greater certainty if advisers were merely required to fulfill a number of specific requirements rather than to act in the overall best interests of their clients.
It’s a checklist approach <a href="https://financialservices.royalcommission.gov.au/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">Justice Kenneth Hayne dismisses</a>, saying it has encouraged advisers to pursue a “good enough” outcome “instead of the best interests of the relevant clients or members”.
“The more complicated the law, the harder it is to see unifying and informing principles and purposes,” the report says. “Exceptions and limitations encourage literal application and focusing on boundary‑marking and categorisation.”
What’s important is that the intent of the law is met, “rather than merely its terms complied with”.
Hayne wants laws rewritten to draw explicit connections between their requirements and what they are trying to achieve.
Such rewriting will make it clear that “exceptions and carve outs like grandfathered commissions constitute a departure from applying the relevant fundamental norm”.
The Coalition fought hard to allow financial advisers to continue to receive some grandfathered commissions – commissions their customers were signed up to before laws outlawing commissions came into place.
Hayne wants all grandfathering to go “as soon as is reasonably practicable”.
Frydenberg <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/p2019-fsrc-response/" target="_blank">has agreed</a>. From January 1, 2021 all grandfathering will go, and any previously grandfathered payments to advisers from clients accounts will be handed back to clients where they can reasonably be identified.
Ongoing fees taken from clients accounts will need to be specifically reauthorised each year, a proposal neither the Coalition nor Labor put forward in negotiations over the Future of Financial Advice Act, settling on reauthorisation every two years in order to avoid paperwork.
Frydenberg has accepted the recommendation, without a start date.
Hayne wants all commissions to mortgage brokers banned so that the borrower, not the lender, pays the broker a fee.
The Royal Commissioner wants the changes made over a period of two or three years, first by banning so-called annual trailing commissions that last the length of the loans, and then by banning upfront commissions.
Frydenberg will ban trailing commissions from July 1, 2020 and will ask the Council of Financial Regulators and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to review in three years’ time the implications of moving to full consumer-pays.
Hayne’s point is that buyers of financial products of all types often assume the person standing between them and the provider is acting in their interests. They need not be when they are being paid by the provider.
<blockquote>
1. The interests of client, intermediary and provider of a product or service are not only different, they are opposed.
2. An intermediary who seeks to stand in “more than one canoe” cannot. Duty (to client) and (self) interest pull in opposite directions.
</blockquote>
Hayne’s three key themes are now government policy:
<ul>
<li>
no conflicted remuneration
</li>
<li>
no exemptions, including grandfathered arrangements
</li>
<li>
explicit consent for payments.
</li>
</ul>
Financial industry laws and regulations will apply more broadly than they have. Funeral insurance will no longer be exempted. Car dealers will face a limit on the fee they can get for selling add-on insurance.
And retailers won’t be able to sell add-on insurance at the same time as the products themselves. Frydenberg said that people buying mobile phones were being sold screen insurance that cost more than the replacement of the screens.
“Hawking”, unsolicited phone calls and pitches for superannuation and insurance and other products, will be prohibited. Lenders to farmers won’t be able to charge high default interest rates during droughts or when there is no realistic prospect of recovering the money.
Banks won’t be able to offer overdrafts on basic accounts without the formal approval of the accounts’ owners, they won’t be able to charge dishonour fees on basic accounts, they will have to value agricultural land used as security for loans independently of the people who decide whether to grant the loans.
Superannuation fund trustees won’t be able to work for other parts of the conglomerate that owns the fund giving them a conflict of interest, and trustees and directors will be subject to civil penalties if they fail to act in the fund members’ best interests.
Each Australian will be defaulted into (“stapled” onto) only one superannuation account once at the beginning of their working life instead of into several as they change jobs as is required by awards and industrial agreements. The <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/superannuation" target="_blank">Productivity Commission estimated</a> these multiple accounts cost super fund members A$10 billion per year in unnecessary fees.
Australia’s much-criticised “twin peaks” model of regulation shared between the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, will stay, although they will be subject to a new independent oversight body that will report on their performance every two years. They will also need to prepare and maintain a joint co-operation memorandum.
In any investigation ASIC will have to have as a starting point the question of whether a case should be taken to court. Infringement notices should mainly be reserved for administrative rather than deliberate failings.
Hayne says too often, banks and other financial services entities that broke the law were not properly held to account.
<blockquote>
Misconduct will be deterred only if entities believe that misconduct will be detected, denounced and justly punished.
Misconduct, especially misconduct that yields profit, is not deterred by requiring those who are found to have done wrong to do no more than pay compensation. And wrongdoing is not denounced by issuing a media release.
</blockquote>
He says in almost every case, bad conduct was driven not only by the firm’s pursuit of profit but also by individuals’ pursuit of gain.
<blockquote>
Providing a service to customers was relegated to second place. Sales became all important. Those who dealt with customers became sellers. And the confusion of roles extended well beyond front line service staff. Advisers became sellers and sellers became advisers.
Rewarding misconduct is wrong. Yet incentive, bonus and commission schemes throughout the financial services industry have measured sales and profit, but not compliance with the law and proper standards. Rewards have been paid regardless of whether the person rewarded should have done what they did.
</blockquote>
Frydenberg says he is taking action on all 76 recommendations.
He’ll set up an industry-funded compensation scheme able to payout over misconduct over the past ten years.
And 24 specific acts of misconduct have been referred to authorities, covering every big financial firm other than Westpac.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/team#peter-martin" target="_blank">Peter Martin</a>, Section Editor, Business and Economy, <a href="http://www.theconversation.com/" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/banking-royal-commission-no-commissions-no-exemptions-no-fees-without-permission-hayne-gets-the-government-to-do-a-u-turn-110974" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Banking Royal Commission: no commissions, no exemptions, no fees without permission, Hayne gets the government to do a U-turn

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVATION
Last week was all about interest rates – even though the RBA and the US Fed kept both of their official rates unchanged at their most recent meetings.
But as usual, what’s likely to happen in the future is the interesting question.
In Australia, all eyes will be on how ASIC and APRA respond to the findings of the banking royal commission. Will they be defensive about past mistakes, or move forward with tighter regulations on banks and financial planning? What will the RBA do in this context?
On interest rates the answer is probably “nothing soon”.
<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2018/mr-18-11" target="_blank">The official statement</a> by RBA Governor Philip Lowe makes one almost physically feel the contortions.
“The Bank’s central forecast for the Australian economy remains for growth to pick up, to average a bit above 3 per cent in 2018 and 2019. This should see some reduction in spare capacity in the economy.”
OK, growth is about to move up strongly.
“Household income has been growing slowly and debt levels are high.”
Well, that sounds concerning, since <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/household-final-consumption-expenditure-etc-percent-of-gdp-wb-data" target="_blank">household consumption accounts for nearly 60% of GDP</a>.
Unemployment was getting better, but that’s stopped happening.
“Inflation remains low…with both CPI and underlying inflation running marginally below 2 per cent. Inflation is likely to remain low for some time…A gradual pick-up in inflation is, however, expected as the economy strengthens.”
So inflation has been outside the target band of 2-3% for a very long time, but if that courageous GDP growth forecast pans out then we might end up back in the band.
And on, and on. No wonder US President Harry Truman once lamented “Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say ‘on one hand…’, then ‘but on the other…’”
In any case, for the foreseeable future it is not what the RBA does, but what the big four banks do that will have the biggest impact on the interest rates Australian borrowers face.
Wholesale funding costs have been ticking up, cutting net interest spreads for the banks. And the wash-up of the Royal Commission is likely to lead to a further tightening of underwriting standards. As ANZ CEO Shayne Elliot put it:
“People are still going to buy a home, so it doesn’t change fundamental demand, but it will change the process and will probably make it harder for people to be successful in their applications.”
Those two factors taken together could easily see a 15-20 basis point increase in rates for home loan borrowers. That might be tempered by potential outrage from the public – banks behave badly and then put their prices up – but the banks have a lot of market power, as history has shown in these matters.
Across the pond, the US Federal Reserve left official rates unchanged from March at 1.5% to 1.75%. That ended, for now, a string of six rate hikes since December 2015.
In a <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20180502a.htm" target="_blank">relatively brief statement</a> the Fed noted;
“the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth of household spending moderated from its strong fourth-quarter pace, while business fixed investment continued to grow strongly. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have moved close to 2 percent.”
The leading interpretation of this is that the Fed thinks inflation is ticking up and will likely raise rates another 25 basis points at the next meeting if nothing material changes in the economy.
All this is a reminder that monetary policy is as much art as it is science.
It is also worth remembering that the other key function of central banks is prudential regulation. That is where the real changes could be interesting. Fed Chair Jay Powell is known to be much more amenable to deregulation of the financial sector than his predecessor Janet Yellen. It may not be too long before we see those instincts put into action.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96006/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">Perhaps the regulatory front will be more interesting than interest rates for the remainder of 2018.
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-fallout-from-banking-crackdown-could-be-worse-than-interest-rate-rises-96006" target="_blank">original article</a>.
</body></html>

The fallout from banking crackdown could be worse than interest rate rises: Richard Holden

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The idea of separating out the arms of the “Big Four” banks like insurance and superannuation from their core banking business is gaining traction in Australia.
It featured in the Greens' banking and finance election policy. However this is not a new idea; Australia is just catching up to banking reforms already made by the UK.
The proposals by the Greens are, in international terms, actually quite tame. The Greens talk about “looking at breaking up the banks,” rather than actually breaking them up. They also suggest applying a “tax deductible levy of 0.20% on the asset base of institutions worth greater than $100 billion” on the “too big to fail” Big Four.
Other jurisdictions have gone much further than the Green’s proposals. For example, following the recommendations of the Vickers’ Inquiry into the UK banking system, banks with assets over £25 billion, will be required from 2017 to split off their retail banking activities into separately managed entities that can be floated off, if the holding company goes belly up. Similar rules are also to be enacted throughout the European Union.
Far from local banks being well-regulated, the latest research on managing systemic risk by the Bank of England shows that Australian banks are simultaneously extreme outliers, in regards to size relative to GDP, yet among the lowest of their peers as regards capital requirements. This is extremely risky, especially given the banks’ exposure to the Australian housing market.
The Australian taxpayer is providing a guarantee for such risky behaviour which the Reserve Bank estimates to be worth some $3.5 billion per year to the big four banks.
One of the Green’s proposed considerations is to investigate:
“The nature of vertically integrated business models, including: i. the integration of everyday banking, financial planning, wealth management and insurance within a single entity; ii. whether the incentives provided encourage illegal or unethical conduct; and iii. whether the incentives provided are aligned with the duty of care to customers.”
This term “vertical integration” is a classic illustration of the problems that arise in so-called Universal Banking. The concept of Universal Banking, sometimes called a “financial supermarket”, in which many financial services are sold under the one roof, goes back to the 19th century in Germany.
This is where German banks not only took deposits and made loans, but also funded and even made equity investments in companies. This one-stop shop was credited with helping to make Germany an industrial superpower in the late 19th century.
On the other hand in the UK and USA, there was strict separation of retail banks and so-called investment (or merchant) banks. In the USA, this separation was enshrined in the famous/infamous Glass Steagall Act of 1933 which was an outcome of the Pecora Commission into the Wall Street Crash of 1929.
In the UK, a strict separation lasted until 1984, when the Thatcher government implemented the so-called Big Bang, which broke down the barriers between commercial and merchant banks. Subsequently, there was a massive consolidation of banks, merchant banks and eventually building societies.
US banks, such as Citicorp and JPMorgan, joined in the takeovers of UK firms even though technically it was still forbidden in the USA. However in 1999, after pressure in the industry and with almost unanimous congressional support, the Glass Steagall Act was repealed and the concept of a one-stop shop for financial products became the accepted business model around the world.
In Australia in the year 2000, NAB acquired MLC Life Limited, which was the insurance and investment arm of Lend Lease. Soon afterwards the other big three Australian banks followed suit, acquiring investment firms and insurance companies. For example, Colonial Mutual insurance was acquired by the Commonwealth Bank to become its scandal-ridden CommInsure subsidiary.
The prevailing model of Universal Banking in Australia is barely 15 years old.
<h2>Why did Universal Banking become the accepted model around the world?</h2>
There are two arguments usually put forward for Universal Banking: economies of “scale” and economies of “scope.” The argument for scale is, the bigger a bank is, the better it can leverage its resources, especially expensive technology. The more depositors a bank has the more money it can lend and in a sort of virtuous circle, the more depositors the bank can attract, always provided that the banks treat their depositors fairly, of course.
Scale is important. For comparison, the largest retail bank in the world by market capitalisation is the US based Wells Fargo bank which has some 70 million customers worldwide, mainly in the USA. That is about three times the population of Australia.
Last financial year, Wells declared net income of around A$30 billion (US$ 22.9 billion) which is almost identical to the total declared by the Big Four banks. On a per customer basis then, Wells appears not to be as efficient as Australian banks, or just possibly Australian customers may be getting a very raw dea<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-fail-to-pass-on-rba-cuts-to-credit-card-customers-20160603-gpb18z">l</a> from their banks.
Economies of scope means that a bank, using its presence in the market, can expand the products it sells to existing and new customers. This so-called cross-selling is infuriatingly obvious in Australian banks.
An example of this is a consumer, when attempting merely to pay in a cheque, can be bombarded with questions about whether they would like insurance with that. It is a form of diversification, expanding and hopefully stabilising sources of income.
In pursuit of scope, the largest Australian banks have all acquired investment management and insurance companies, bundling these acquisitions up into fashionable “Wealth Management” units. According to KPMG, these units provided a 25 percent of the Big Four’s profits in 2015. The problem is that the Big Four banks have proved to be not very good at “wealth management.”
The original reason for diving into the wealth management business was the pot of gold that is Australian superannuation, which is growing year on year through mandatory contributions and today sits at just over A$2 trillion – who could lose? Certainly not the superannuation funds managers.
But could they outperform others? Unfortunately not, as the largest bank-owned retail funds consistently underperform not-for profit industry funds - not really surprising as industry funds operate on a not-for-profit basis.
And all the while, people are deserting the retail sector in droves to run their own Self-Managed Superannuation Funds (SMSFs). In 2016, self-managed assets total some A$592 billion or 30% of the total super pot of just over A$2 trillion, exceeding the retail sector and growing each month.
If the prospect was only ever little more than a pipe-dream, it became a nightmare as pensioners lost their savings in the GFC, created incidentally by banks. And today the prospect of even the middle class living in poverty in retirement has become a reality. In Australia, with the average super balance for men at retirement being just less than $300,000 (much less for women), ASFA, the industry body for super funds, concludes that” many recent retirees will need to substantially rely on the Age Pension in their retirement”.
<h2>Is the rationale for seeking economies of scope still valid?</h2>
Technology has changed everything. In the 20th century, people still went into banks to withdraw or deposit money, to make payments, to ask for a mortgage or to talk about investments.
It was quite possible then for the banks to catch customers at the counter and sell them something they may not want or need but nonetheless may be good for them, like an insurance policy.
But a lot of people don’t go to banks much anymore. They get cash when they check out at the supermarket.
They visit websites or mortgage brokers when they are looking for a mortgage. They search websites that compare deposit and investments offers, and there are a myriad of ways that people can pay bills or make payments for online goods.
People are deserting bank branches for the internet and the importance of face-to face contact and opportunities to cross-sell have diminished.
If there is no pot of gold at the end of the Wealth Management rainbow for banks nor their customers, then the boards of Australian banks must look to strategies other than Universal Banking.
Unfortunately, the subject of banking reform was not addressed fully by the Financial Systems Inquiry, headed as it was by the architect of CommBank’s vertical integration strategy, and the subject has since become a political football.
The Green’s policy would be seen as a minimum and meek in most other jurisdictions, while the industry’s response is shortsighted and defensive. The subject is too important to be trapped in this stalemate.
Pat McConnell is honorary fellow, Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre, Macquarie University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/pat-mcconnell-13137" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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