A new chapter in Sydney’s urban renewal story begins today as NSW Premier Chris Minns officially turns the sod for Dawn, the fifth stage of Sekisui House Australia’s $5 billion <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> masterplanned community.

Developed in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties and built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/decode">Decode</a>, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/dawn-melrose-park-bundil-boulevard-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Dawn</a> will deliver 368 parkside residences, forming part of one of NSW’s largest privately owned urban renewal projects.&nbsp;

The milestone marks the start of the next phase in transforming Melrose Park into a new community delivering over 5,500 homes, a mixed-use town centre, 50,000 sqm of open green spaces and several future schools.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=352993]

Kazunori Ito, Group CEO and Managing Director at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a>, said the milestone symbolises the company’s ongoing commitment to job creation, housing supply and sustainable community building.

“This moment represents more than just the start of construction," Ito said.

"It is about building a new urban heart for Sydney’s geographic centre. Dawn and the wider Melrose Park masterplan will generate thousands of jobs, deliver quality homes for families and help more people realise the dream of home ownership.

“We are proud to be supporting the NSW government’s housing targets and expanded Home Guarantee Scheme, which came into effect on 1 October. The program is already opening doors for more first home buyers at Melrose Park, many of whom are using the scheme to purchase with a five per cent deposit and no Lenders’ Mortgage Insurance.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=334163]

Since its introduction, the enhanced federal government’s Home Guarantee Scheme has given first home buyers greater access to the property market. With value thresholds in New South Wales now lifted to $1.5 million, buyers can secure a new apartment in Melrose Park sooner, reducing the burden of saving a 20 per cent deposit and removing costly mortgage insurance premiums.&nbsp;

The Dawn precinct, designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/group-gsa">Group GSA</a> embodies Sekisui House’s global “Love of Humanity” philosophy, integrating sustainability, technology and liveability into every design detail. Residents will enjoy abundant green space, energy efficient features and a direct connection to the future Parramatta Light Rail Stage 2 and Melrose Park Town Centre set to open in 2026.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=354734]

As part of the NSW government’s long-term commitment to the local community, work recently commenced on the new Melrose Park High School, a state-of-the-art education facility designed to accommodate more than 1,000 students. The school will be within walking distance to Dawn and will become a cornerstone of the precinct’s family friendly environment.

Melrose Park’s smart community vision includes EV charging stations, environmental monitoring systems with Western Sydney University and NBN node to residence connectivity. With over $216 million in planning contributions committed to local and state infrastructure, this project supports NSW’s 30-minute city goal, ensuring residents can live, work and play within easy reach of key employment and lifestyle hubs.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145496 project_image_fid=334049]

Dawn’s contemporary residences all have secure basement parking and start at $649,000 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1.259 million for three-bedrooms.&nbsp;

The project will also overlook Central Park which spans nearly two hectares and features barbeque and picnic areas, children’s play zones and walking tracks ideal for active residents and pets.

Residents will enjoy exclusive rooftop community facilities including private rooftop gardens, beautifully landscaped podium parks and internal courtyard gardens.

Construction of Dawn, which is being led by regarded builder Decode, will be completed by Q1 2028, adding to Sekisui House’s pipeline of more than 9,000 homes and apartments under development across Australia.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145496]

Staff Writer

Premier Chris Minns turns sod at Dawn Melrose Park as construction commences

Southport is set for one of its tallest new apartment developments in recent years with the approval of Malua, a 32-level tower just one row back from Broadwater.

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/malua-18-22-norman-street-southport-qld-4215">Norman St tower</a> will comprise 151 apartments within the Southport Priority Development Area. The three adjoining lots, totalling 1,215 sqm, are currently occupied by three two-storey buildings, one a house, and two duplexes.

The majority of the apartments will be two-bedders (126), with just five one-bedroom apartments and 20 three-bedrooms. There will be three basement levels, three podium levels, and a rooftop communal space with a pool, gym, private dining areas and business hub facilities.

<img alt="Malua" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="21ab3437-de39-432c-b991-f33227b606dd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.41.37%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=_dOcjcvmSMyn6utzzviBVCAgDp5ZCo_N" />

There had been prior approval for a 14-storey building, however those plans became financially unviable.

“The proposed development seeks to resolve financial viability issues of the existing development approval by providing a higher density development with a more favourable unit mix and streamlined design,” the planning report submitted to the Gold Coast City Council noted.

Plus Studio designed the tower which "aims to contribute positively to the evolving Southport skyline, with vertical relief elements, sculpted facades, and rooftop crowning features."

“When stepping into the lobby from Norman Street, pedestrians and residents pass through a sculpted podium of lush green foliage in an earthy entry experience,” Plus wrote in its design report, emphasising the landscape-led approach to the podium and ground plane.

<img alt="Malua" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="694202c2-be8f-4cde-be26-a494293058a6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.42.15%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=NOIFuolMkoE8vNerov63rnbFRk_TnYUy" />

There is renewed confidence in the development market in Southport. Buyers have jumped at the chance to buy at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/maris-southport-20-queen-street-southport-qld-4215">Maris</a>, the latest local Gold Coast development by MRCB. Over 75 per cent of the 192 apartments have been snapped up prior to launching to the market.&nbsp;

The last notable launch in the suburb was in late 2023 when <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/eden-garden-residences-20-bauer-street-southport">Eden Garden Residences</a> hit the market. The 54 apartments, on the corner of Bauer Street and Chester Terrace, are under construction and due to complete in mid-2026.

Joel Robinson

First look: Southport tower Malua to rise 32 levels in latest Gold Coast approval

Woolworths Group’s development arm, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/fabcot">Fabcot</a>, has unveiled its latest mixed-use development.

They are seeking to reshape a prominent site in Gladesville, on the northern edge of the town centre. They've filed a&nbsp;State Significant Development Application for the amalgamated 5,623 sqm block with street frontages to Victoria Road and Eltham Street that will see <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/363-victoria-road-gladesville-nsw-2111">two buildings with 171 apartments</a> sit above an activated retail ground plane.

The tallest tower, at 13 storeys, will face Victoria Road and home 115 dwellings. A smaller nine-sytorey tower, stepping down to Eltham Street, will have the remaining 56 apartments.

The towers will rise above a podium containing a full-line 3,800 sqm Woolworths supermarket and cafe, activating along the Westminster and Eltham Street frontages.

<img alt="Fabcot" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="da042a40-288e-41b8-becc-080f235a3717" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.13.26%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=n99ay71Clcy6WLP4Uajw2ph6BA61wboV" />

The residential offering will include 19 one-bedroom, 118 two-bedroom, and 34 three-bedroom apartments. Residents will have access to rooftop communal terraces on both buildings, as well as a podium-level garden, contributing a total of 1,411 sqm of communal open space.

According to the Urban Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/clarke-hopkins-clarke">ClarkeHopkinsClarke</a>, “The massing places height and density along Victoria Road, reinforcing its role as the commercial spine, while stepping down towards neighbouring areas to ensure appropriate scale transitions.”&nbsp;

The design draws inspiration from the local geology and waterways, with curving tower forms and a warm, tactile material palette referencing Hawkesbury sandstone and nearby riverine landscapes.

The proposal also includes basement parking across three to four levels, accommodating 392 car spaces - 190 for retail and 202 for residents.

<img alt="Fabcot" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f1a01073-9a13-4ba7-9c14-43c84a751e26" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-06%20at%208.13.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=KSImA_iSQiIgSRMswm7.5Sg.WRZ0fZjg" />

Fabcot is aiming to deliver a “landmark building with civic presence,” leveraging the prominent corner site to anchor the precinct’s urban renewal.

“The building’s corner location and carefully sculpted form establish it as a landmark for North Gladesville,” the Urban Design Report notes.

ClarkeHopkinsClarke has previously collaborated on other Woolworths mixed-use projects, and here again deploys stepped setbacks, articulation, and extensive landscaping to manage bulk and enhance street-level engagement. A colonnaded brick base provides texture and rhythm to the podium, while upper levels curve softly to maximise views and cross-ventilation.

The development sits within the North Gladesville Precinct, an area earmarked for transformation under Ryde’s local planning strategy. It is well-served by bus connections along Victoria Road and within proximity to community infrastructure, schools, and riverside parkland.

Gladesville is set for a full transformation with developer Third.i also planning a major mixed-use development in the area. They are seeking to redevelop the Gladesville Village Shopping Centre into an&nbsp;integrated precinct with more than 500 apartments, a new supermarket, and significant public domain upgrades.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-third-i-plots-500-unit-redevelopment-of-gladesville-village-shopping-centre">First look: Third.i plots 500-unit redevelopment of Gladesville Village Shopping Centre</a>

Fabcot reveals mixed-use plans for Gladesville town centre

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/omaya">Omaya</a> has brought to market a boutique collection of completed, two-storey terraces on Telopea Avenue in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/homebush-west-nsw-2140">Homebush West</a>, offering buyers the opportunity to move straight into brand-new homes in a connected inner-west location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/telopea-avenue-homebush-west-24-36-telopea-avenue-homebush-west-nsw-2140">Telopea Avenue</a> comprises four-bedroom terraces with internal basement parking, designed to balance functionality with contemporary interiors.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6085]

Each residence is arranged across two levels, with layouts tailored to families seeking more space or downsizers wanting low-maintenance living without compromise. Skylights and large windows maximise natural light throughout the interiors, while private terraces and balconies extend living outdoors.

Inside, hybrid timber flooring flows through living and bedroom spaces, complemented by built-in wardrobes with polyurethane finishes and melamine shelving.&nbsp;

Kitchens feature Bianco Imperial Granite benchtops and splashbacks, paired with Smeg appliances including a five-burner gas cooktop, oven, rangehood, and integrated dishwasher.&nbsp;

Bathrooms continue the refined detailing with porcelain tiling, granite accents, gun metal tapware, and integrated LED lighting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6072]

Landscaped surrounds create a sense of greenery within the community, while individual home designs ensure each terrace retains its own character.

Positioned within a quiet residential pocket, the project sits only minutes from the activity centres of Strathfield, North Strathfield, Homebush, and Lidcombe, as well as the broader lifestyle and employment precinct of Sydney Olympic Park.

Residents also benefit from the project’s proximity to transport and amenity. Homebush and Flemington stations provide direct rail access to the Sydney CBD, with major road connections including Parramatta Road and the M4 close by.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150682 project_image_fid=6064]

Local shops, Sydney Markets, and Strathfield Plaza cater to daily needs, while the area is well-serviced by schools, childcare centres, and universities.&nbsp;

Nearby Sydney Olympic Park and Bicentennial Park add further lifestyle appeal, offering walking trails, sports facilities, and year-round cultural events.

The terraces are delivered by Omaya, a family-run Sydney developer and builder with more than 35 years of experience and over 1,000 dwellings in its pipeline.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150682]

Omaya delivers complete and move-in ready terraces on Telopea Avenue, Homebush West

Melbourne-based developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/las-group">LAS Group</a> has this month received planning approval for two adjoining sites, 101 Clarendon Street and 38 Clarke Street in Southbank, that will add around $700 million to the developer’s pipeline on completion.

The two sites were purchased from Crown in 2023 and occupy the same city block as the iconic Casino complex, acquired in an on-market transaction, consisting of multiple titles that were being used as warehouses and low-rise office space.

The resulting permits will see the delivery of two towers consisting of 52 and 25 levels, both to be designed by Fender Katsalidis.

LAS Group’s successful planning approvals are among only a select few new development sites in Southbank to receive a permit in the last three years, as appropriate sites become even more scarce in the popular city-side location.

The projects will enjoy immediate walking access to Crown Casino, South Wharf, the Aquarium, Southbank and the wider Yarra River walk precinct that features a plethora of restaurants, bars and other hospitality and entertainment offerings.

The Fender Katsalidis-designed towers will feature intricate brick masonry and arched windows at street level that will add character to the Southbank streetscape, with sleek towers rising above each podium.

The larger of the two towers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/101-clarendon-street-southbank-vic-3006">101 Clarendon Street</a>, will have 509 apartments across a 52-level building that wuill also include a resident&nbsp;lounge, private dining room, podcast room, golf simulator, co-working spaces, pet care facilities, and an outdoor terrace.

That is expected to complete in 2029.

<img alt="Clarendon" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9d8595a7-d225-4532-86a9-d3c5ca7407d4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-05%20at%208.28.51%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=quwbfnhk5Vf6yR1Qj0GQtt0EjeIsKMci" /> 
The podium at 101 Clarendon Street. Image supplied

The smaller tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/36-42-clarke-street-southbank-vic-3006">38 Clarke Street</a> will be around half the size at 25 levels and home 188 apartments, a pool, gym, cold plunge, and sauna. That is expected to complete in 2028.

&nbsp;

LAS Group has a long history of developing key sites across Australia, including The Fawkner on St Kilda Road and Guild Apartments in Southbank, as well as holding significant interests in retail, mixed-use and storage facilities across Australia.

<img alt="38 Clarke" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d871b034-d2a4-490f-b9eb-b9d4b99a04c5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-11-05%20at%208.28.44%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=J3fWfemsLPQzXekl_h0QlsXoWFnRbfRF" /> 
38 Clarke Street, Southbank. Image supplied

LAS Group director and founder Les Smith said the planning approvals had come at a time when confidence was returning to the market and the need to deliver quality apartment stock in Melbourne’s inner suburbs was becoming critical to help ease the housing and affordability crisis.

“These planning approvals are the outcome of a collaborative process with multiple stakeholders and we are grateful for the involvement and support of Melbourne Water, the Department of Transport and Planning, Melbourne City Council and Property Council of Australia along the way," Smith said.

“We have a huge affinity for Melbourne believe the macro and micro economic factors that underpin long-term growth mean it is currently undervalued compared to other capital cities around Australia.

“Confidence is starting to return given the recent interest rate drops and the buoyancy in the economic climate, so we believe the time is right to bring these two new projects to market in the coming months."

LAS Group General Manager, Mia Smith said the design intent was to bring a sense of place to Southbank from the ground level and contribute positively to the thriving entertainment precinct, while delivering good quality, affordable stock to the market.

“These projects will deliver product that is affordable and accessible, while delivering a beautiful building with luxury appointments, in a wonderful location that’s next door to Crown Casino and the Southbank entertainment precinct, and on the doorstep to the CBD," Smith said.

“We are incredibly pleased with the designs that Fender Katsalidis have proposed and we are excited to make a positive impact to the urban design of this important pocket of Southbank with these exceptional design outcomes.”

LAS Group to build 700 apartments across two towers on Crown Casino’s former Southbank sites

Apartment Oversupply

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Publicity seekers love a bandwagon, preferably one that’s already travelling at a fair pace so that they can just leap on board and be carried along by the existing momentum.
A popular bandwagon to hitch a ride on is the Brisbane inner-city apartment market. Everyone, it seems, has noticed that something is afoot and wants to be the latest and loudest to issue a “warning”.
But the time to be warning about this was about three years ago. And November 2014 was when Property Observer published my column on this subject, the first of several I’ve written about this issue.
Way back then, this is what I wrote on Property Observer:
There will be repercussions from the over-building of apartments in Brisbane …
In Brisbane, as in Melbourne, Sydney, the Gold Coast and other major unit markets, the inspiration for the high level of new building is the Chinese investment market. Everyone is targeting Chinese investors. 
Developers and their marketing stooges don’t care about the vacancy rate figures. That’s someone else’s problem. If they can flog their apartments to Asian buyers, nothing else needs to be considered. 
The people who will feel the most pain in the future will be the investor buyers. High vacancies will push down rents and the returns they will earn from their investment. That in turn will undermine values. 
Others will suffer. Owners of existing properties in or near the inner-city will also find it hard to tenant their properties and will have to cut rents. Their values will fall also. Home-owners in those areas will be equally affected by falling values.
An investor contacted me recently to tell me that he had just read that column, but only after having signed a contract to buy an off-the-plan apartment in the Brisbane inner-city market. Horrified, and after doing further research, they sought to exit the contract.
The big problem for investors like this is that the industry keeps pumping out propaganda which talks up this market and individual high-rise projects - and lots of media outlets keep publishing it.
Back in November 2014, I wrote:
A media release this week was positively gushing in its eulogy of the Brisbane inner-city apartment market. Sales are surging, it said, and the level of new construction in the pipeline was a cause for celebration. The market, apparently, “continues to shine”.
That kind of dishonest press release material is still muddying the waters. The REIQ has been a particular culprit. If the institute can be believed (generally they can’t), vacancies are acceptable, there are lots of buyers and tenants, and all is well in central Brisbane.
But independent sources disagree. Louis Christopher’s SQM Research has vacancies at 5% or higher in the CBD, Fortitude Valley, New Farm, South Brisbane, West End and Woolloongabba. Kangaroo Point is slightly better off, at 4.4%, but that’s still too high.
The key factor is that the situation will worsen as new projects are completed and their apartments are added to the rental pool.
BIS Oxford Economics is the latest to issue a dire warning. It predicts Brisbane’s median unit price will fall 7% between now and 2020. I would suggest the decline will be greater than that.
Research data published recently shows that owners already are losing money on re-sales – and this is reinforced by median price data from CoreLogic. In the past 12 months, median unit prices have dropped 7% in Fortitude Valley, 8% in South Brisbane and 11% in both West End and Woolloongabba.
Fortitude Valley, South Brisbane and West End all have median prices lower than three years ago.
Long-term growth rates in this market are fairly dismal as well. The average annual growth in median prices over the past decade have been 1.4% per year for the CBD, 1.1% for West End and a little over 2% per year for Kangaroo Point, Fortitude Valley and South Brisbane.
Those rather bleak growth rates will fall further as values continue to decline in the wake of the current over-supply.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Brisbane apartment market warning should have been three years ago: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The inner-city Brisbane unit market, already hit hard by unit oversupply, continues to remain a huge danger zone for investors since the advent of COVID-19.
Not only is equity risk the major issue for investors, increased vacancy rates and risk to cash flow are also heavily impacting the market.
According to RiskWise Property Research CEO Doron Peleg, things have not improved in the market since the pandemic hit and, if anything, have become worse.
“RiskWise reported in July 2018 that there were 14,813 units in the pipeline in inner-city Brisbane for the next 24 months, being an addition of 20.1 per cent of the current stock,” Mr Peleg said.
“Two years later and there is still a very high level of supply with 5,431 units in the pipeline, making up an addition of 5.9 per cent of the current stock.”
Pete Wargent, co-founder of Buyers Buyers, a national marketplace now offering affordable buyer’s agent services to all Australians, said that rental demand had been weak for CBD apartments for some time.
“The trend has been exacerbated by the pandemic, and CBD rents have been very soft” Mr Wargent added.
Analysis by RiskWise in 2018 showed unit over-supply in inner-city Brisbane had created weakness in the market leading to an elevated level of risk for investors and, therefore, lower valuations and rising defaults on settlements.
“The issue of oversupply is not a new problem and has been there for a few years and the continuous weakness of the unit market in inner-city Brisbane should raise red flags for developers and lenders,” Mr Peleg said.
“Defaults have been rising and will continue to do so.
“One of the key factors has been developers’ lack of foresight regarding unit oversupply as well as the impact of lending restrictions introduced from 2014. It seems there has been no methodological and structured risk-management approach including identification, assessment, and mitigating action plans to address those risks.
“This takes us back to the feasibility stage which includes the assessment of the projected fair market value and the likelihood of defaults and their potential consequences. Developers and lenders must find the right balance between taking risk and making profit.
“COVID-19 has only served to increase the risk. Currently, there are many high-rise properties being offered to a smaller number of investors. This is because there are less investors in the market due to the pandemic.
“The point is that if developers and lenders had put more proper risk-management practices in place, this could all have been avoided.”
Mr Peleg said it must also be remembered the value of off-the-plan property could decrease between the original contract date and settlement resulting in capital loss, as the equity in the home could be reduced, and this was well known in inner-city Brisbane.
He also stressed that investors buying rental apartments unsuitable for families were taking an enormous gamble, with both equity and cash flow risk expected to materially increase. Serviceability is also a major factor for investors who rely on a stable rental income to cover the costs associated with property and particularly the mortgage.
Mr Wargent of Buyers Buyers said houses for investors often carried significantly lower risk for those with the right budget because renters, especially in the more established suburbs, included families and, in many cases, those with permanent full-time jobs. They were also more likely to deliver good medium and long-term capital growth.
Additionally, as rental properties are not fully substitute products with owner-occupied dwellings, there is inherent risk associated with them as they do not appeal to families looking for three bedrooms, with outdoor space, close to schools, transport, and employment hubs.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Unit oversupply remains an issue in Brisbane CBD: RiskWise's Doron Peleg

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Rouse Hill in Sydney's Hill District is expected to see its amount of units grow by over 200 per cent in the next 24 months.
It stands out in RiskWise's top 10 danger zone areas in Australia for high settlement and cash flow risk. 
Rouse Hill is set to see a further 1,661 new apartments in the next two years.
Rents have been one of the biggest issues during COVID-19, with inner city apartments in particular seeing significant declines.
Unit rents have been hit the most, with falls over the last three months in both Sydney and Melbourne reaching two per cent.
Buyer’s agent Rich Harvey said buying new apartments in outer suburban areas like Rouse Hill made no sense.
“While it may be nice to have a shiny new kitchen and bathroom, there is a significant downside price risk as the supply of land for further development is plentiful", Mr Harvey said.
"Investors and home buyers are far better off seeking apartments in locations where land supply is very low and demand for property high.
Mr Harvey said there is a settlement risk for the buyer in a market where prices are declining, if they discover the value paid for the unit has declined significantly.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/9/14/Top%2010%20oversupply%20areas.jpg" alt=""> *The table lists the riskiest areas in the country in terms of oversupply, based not only on the supply itself but also on low demand for rental apartments, in relation to that supply. Source: RiskWise
Sydney's Gosford will see its apartments grow 72 per cent, with 1,859 new apartments set for completion over the next two years.
Melbourne has the highest number of new apartments, some 4,744 to be finished, which will see their number of apartments grow by over 13 per cent.
RiskWise chief executive Doron Peleg said property investors should be extra cautious of the high degree of risk associated with off-the-plan units, that has further increased due to the COVID-19. 
"The equity risk, being the risk for price reduction that already had been high prior to the COVID-19, has further increased as investor activity is lower, and their awareness of the risks associated with rental apartments has increased", Mr Peleg said. 
"COVID-19 has also increased materially the cash flow risk, as vacancy rates, as per SQM, are at an all-time high peaking in May at 16.2 per cent. In June they dropped slightly to 13.8 per cent."
Mr Peleg said that the high-profile issues around cladding and defects has created enormous ‘reputational damage’ across the entire industry and because of this, investors have lost interest in high-rise unit developments and were turning to “safer” house-and-land packages suitable for families. 
Pete Wargent, co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers, said that units, particularly off-the-plan purchases, still carried a high level of risk of significant price reductions.
He noted that uncertainty in the economy has been heightened in 2020, and that buying into oversupplied areas at a time when the international borders are effectively shut this would only serve to compound risks.
Mr Wargent said that rental markets have been weak for inner-city apartments due to the absence of international students and tourists, and that where possible buyers should look towards more supply-constrained markets and assets with a genuine scarcity value.
“Over the medium to longer term, it’s the land value component of the asset that does the heavy lifting for you and, therefore, buyers should look for a high land-to-asset ratio. The unit oversupply issue has been with us for some years now, and outperformance has mainly been in family appropriate dwelling types in markets where demand is consistent and new supply has been restricted” Mr Wargent said.
 
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Top 10 ‘Danger Zones’ for apartment oversupply in Australia: RiskWise

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BIS Oxford Economics executive chairman Robert Mellor thinks the golden years of property investing may be over.
"I don't think another investor-led housing boom is around the corner and a key reason is investors will be sitting on the sidelines for a while given falling rents and, for now, falling prices," he said.
"For someone who has watched the residential market for 40 years, you know that when building activity drops off, so too does GDP. The relationship is very strong," he told the Australian Financial Review.
He is forecasting a drop in migration of about 60,000 this financial year and another 150,000 next financial year.
With about 2.7 people per household, the forecast drop equates to about 80,000 fewer houses needing to be built.
"These people who are no longer coming impact on the rental market, so it will significantly reduce demand and that will lift vacancy rates and increase risks around residential property," Mr Mellor said.
Mellor says ongoing state border closures will put substantial pressure on apartment demand in the months ahead.
"All our numbers show the apartment sector is moving into significant oversupply because of lower net migration and rising number of people per household," Mr Mellor said.
"Even if migration level stays at around 100,000 over the next couple of years, this is still just half of the normal demand."
Inner-city apartments in particular are likely to be hit, as rentals continue to flood the market even as landlords struggle to find tenants.
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Golden years of property investing may be over: Robert Mellor

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Brisbane's inner-city apartment market has about 10,000 more apartments in the pipeline than it should, says the newly active property research outfit RiskWise.
RiskWise suggests as early as June 2016 price growth was -1.8 per cent with 17,417 units in the pipeline – an addition of 24.5 per cent to the stock.
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Price growth was again negative at -2.2 per cent inn 2017, but pipeline supply crept up to 19,194 units, accounting for 27 per cent of existing supply.
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"The issue of oversupply is not a new problem and has been there for a few years," Mr Peleg said.
"The continuous weakness of the unit market in inner-city Brisbane should have raised red flags for developers and lenders," he told Fairfax Media.
"Overall, it seems they were too optimistic about the projected market value, and it is highly likely that the price they paid for the land was also too high."
 This year RiskWise has price growth at -2 per cent, with the pipeline at 14,813 units, accounting for 20 per cent of the supply.</div>
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RiskWise said a healthy level for any market should be no more than five per cent of existing supply.
He sees more defaults on settlement.
"Defaults have been rising and will continue to do so," he said.
This time last year The RiskWise Property Review Best and the Worst Off-The-Plan Suburbs in Australia report identified several inner city locations in Brisbane that were vunerable.
It advised there was only a small number of suburbs where OTP units have the potential to deliver a solid capital growth. 
Fortitude Valley (Qld) were among those classified as having the highest risks, Peleg said this time last year. 
Click here to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/WorstPostcodes.png" target="_blank">enlarge</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/19/WorstPostcodes.png" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/19/WorstPostcodes.png" alt=""></a>
 
 
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Brisbane has 10,000 too many new apartments

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Settlement risk remains a live issue for Parramatta developers and their project financiers, according to new analysis from Deloitte of the Parramatta market.
Their inaugural Parramatta Crane Survey revealed an unprecedented level of construction in Parramatta, identifying 39 developments.
Its research indicates approximately 650 apartments were purchased off the plan during the peak of the cycle in 2016 which are the pre-sales exposed to the highest settlement risk. 
"Anecdotally we have not heard of any major settlement issues in the local market to date and prudent developers are likely to be proactively monitoring this risk," the survey author and Deloitte Western Sydney’s Real Estate Leader, David Hagger, noted.
The survey reveals that there are currently 2,707 apartments under construction in the Parramatta CBD, due for completion between 2018 and 2019.
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With a further 4,865 apartments proposed across 12 projects, a potential ‘flood’ of the market has been predicted by some commentators, but according to Hagger, however, the survey indicates a different outcome.
“We see the market entering a cooling phase.
"There are only 1,110 apartments with DA approval in the pipeline, providing a short-term supply of approximately 2-3 years, indicating lower risk of oversupply."
He suggested developers are adjusting to changing market conditions - including limits on lending by banks, increases in stamp duty and land taxes and restrictions by Chinese regulators on outbound investments in real estate - along with the shift towards commercial development.
"The pool of proposed apartments does represent a significant potential supply.
"However, these are not yet committed," he noted. 
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"If property prices retract slightly, or less mortgage finance is made available, for example as banks restrict investor loans, the presale purchaser may be required to contribute further equity.
"The settlement risks could potentially result in purchasers not being able to complete and the completed stock being relisted for sale thereby adding to the existing supply pool in the Parramatta market.
"This is most likely to occur when the apartment was sold at the ‘peak of the cycle’ where the purchaser has assumed ongoing capital growth and stretched their own financial position."
 
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Off the plan Parramatta settlement risk remains a live issue: Deloitte

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Developers are repurposing Parramatta residential sites to meet an increasing demand for high quality commercial developments, according to new analysis from Deloitte of the Parramatta development market.
Their inaugural Parramatta Crane Survey revealed an unprecedented level of construction in Parramatta, identifying 39 developments.
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The report concluded that the "most exciting prospect is that the long term prosperity of Parramatta as a more ‘liveable’ city is being enabled through higher urban amenity." 
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Across these developments, the survey discovered: 
* 92,000sqm of office floor space currently under construction
*  Zero vacancy rate for A-Grade office space with total vacancy rate at 4.3% compared to 5.9% in the Sydney CBD 
*  Apartment construction is slowing with only 1,100 DA approved apartments in the pipeline - 63% less volume than currently under construction 
*  By 2020, 857 new hotel rooms will have been built across four projects. 
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The survey author and Deloitte Western Sydney’s Real Estate Leader, David Hagger, noted that the shift of momentum towards commercial development will continue to attract higher paid jobs to Parramatta.
“The Parramatta Square development alone could house over 20,000 workers, with around 10,000 more expected across the rest of the city.
"Many of these will be public servants, with the NSW Government being the anchor tenant after making the largest pre-lease commitment we have ever seen.
"Importantly, we are also seeing an influx of private sector companies, including the high profile move by NAB to make Parramatta its second home, with a number of other businesses now circling for space in the remaining repurposed commercial building on Parramatta Square,” said Hagger.
Ongoing investment and rising job numbers should in turn continue to underpin growth in the residential market, he suggests.
The survey reveals that there are currently 2,707 apartments under construction in the Parramatta CBD, due for completion between 2018 and 2019.
With a further 4,865 apartments proposed across 12 projects, a potential ‘flood’ of the market has been predicted by some commentators, but according to Hagger, however, the survey indicates a different outcome.
“We see the market entering a cooling phase.
"There are only 1,110 apartments with DA approval in the pipeline, providing a short-term supply of approximately 2-3 years, indicating lower risk of oversupply."
He suggested developers are adjusting to changing market conditions - including limits on lending by banks, increases in stamp duty and land taxes and restrictions by Chinese regulators on outbound investments in real estate - and also note a clear shift towards commercial development.
"The pool of proposed apartments does represent a significant potential supply.
"However, these are not yet committed. 
The Deloitte Real Estate team undertook research on the number of developments underway in the Parramatta Central Business District and is accurate to the best of their knowledge as at 30 September 2017.
It has been recently revealed that Lang Walker has scrapped his high rise residential project instead building offices.
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"From where I sit, I won't be comfortable tackling a tall residential tower in Parramatta ... maybe in two years' time," the AFR quoted Walker Corporation executive chairman Lang Walker saying.
"Banks are very reluctant to lend to this area ... it will cool for a couple of years and it will come back up. But it's not a doomsday scenario at the moment."
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<div>Walker attributes his decision to the huge supply in both Parramatta and Camelia, an industrial suburb near Parramatta, now a brownfields precinct for high density living.</div>
This week Singapore-listed property developer CWG has sold The Peak, its 45 storey Parramatta residential project site at 14-20 Parkes Street for $40 million.
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Parramatta residential construction slows in shift back to offices: Deloitte

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Brisbane has for some time been the focus of an oversupply of apartments. 
Buyers agent blogger <a href="/expert-insights/investing/78527-inner-brisbane-apartment-glut-on-the-gabba-s-skyline-obvious-even-to-the-channel-9-cricket-commentary-team" target="_blank">Pete Wargent</a> wrote about it recently, saying "the ubiquitous offers of rent-free periods for tenants, free internet (and so on) in Woolloongabba apartments reflect the clear weakness in the rental market". He observed that during a game of cricket being played at the Gabba and shown on TV. 
In its latest Stock on Market update, realestateinvestar.com.au has listed the Brisbane suburbs with their current stock of units and the stock 12 months previous to that.
Chermside had among the largest new stock - some 185 units. It grew 10% over the previous 12 month period when it was 168. There has been an influx among other suburbs including Woolloongabba and Wynnum with growth in listings of 28 and 38% respectively.
There are other suburbs such as Brisbane City where the increase is greater, but not as dramatic like Woolloongabba. In some like Fortitude Valley, the stock has come down.
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<td>Suburb</td>
<td> Current Units</td>
<td> Units 12 months ago</td>
<td>% growth</td>
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<td>Chermside</td>
<td>185</td>
<td>168</td>
<td>10</td>
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<td>Woolloongabba </td>
<td>104</td>
<td>81 </td>
<td>28</td>
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<td>Wynnum</td>
<td>54</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>38</td>
</tr>
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A three-bedroom penthouse at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-chermside-126694446" target="_blank">37/26-28 Western Avenue</a> (picture above) is open for offers from $550,000. It is situated at Westwing.
At Curwen on the Park, a two bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-qld-chermside-124001178" target="_blank">504/16-18 Curwen Terrace</a> in Chermside has been advertised for $460,000.
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Annual rise in apartment supply in Chermside and Woolloongabba

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Much has been written about the oversupply of apartments in Melbourne.
Earlier this year, the RBA had voiced its concerns on the apartment market, warning a flood of new apartments could come onto the market in certain areas, pushing down prices and causing heavy losses for developers.
In its latest Stock on Market update, realestateinvestar.com.au has listed the Melbourne suburbs with their current stock of units and the stock 12 months previous to that.
North Melbourne has some 135 compared to 112 a year back - a 20% change. 
In contrast, some suburbs like Carlton saw supply fall from 195 units 12 months back to 158 units in the latest count.
Meanwhile, percentage rises in some other suburbs like Alphington and Armadale were much sharper (see table below), but that was mainly because the numbers were much smaller. 
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<td>Suburb</td>
<td>Current Units</td>
<td>Units 12 months ago</td>
<td>Percent change</td>
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<td>East Melbourne</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>52</td>
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<td>Moonee Ponds</td>
<td>75</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>59</td>
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<td>North Melbourne</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>112</td>
<td>20</td>
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<td>Brunswick West</td>
<td>68 </td>
<td>49</td>
<td>38</td>
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<td>Alphington</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>220</td>
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<td>Armadale</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>126</td>
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<td>Brighton</td>
<td>69 </td>
<td>41</td>
<td>68</td>
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A recently completed two-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-vic-north+melbourne-127047806" target="_blank">302/35 Arden Street, North Melbourne</a> (picture above) is to go under the hammer in mid-December. It is part of the architect designed "MILQ" building.
A one-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-vic-north+melbourne-126501090" target="_blank">308/108 Haines Street, North Melbourne</a> is selling for $372,000. The inner city apartment is expected to be ready by February 2018.
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North Melbourne and Moonee Ponds see surge in apartment stock in last 12 months

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Sydney's North Ryde tops the list of Sydney suburbs with the biggest jump in apartments for sale.
It follows a spurt in construction of apartments and recent completions were investor seek to onsell their apartments.
North Ryde was followed by Narrabeen, Hillsdale and Sydney Olympic Park. For comparison purposes, the list was derived by suburbs with at least 25 apartments for sale.
North Ryde currently has 77 units for sale compared to 29 a year back, marking a percentage growth of 165 percent in one year.
Narrabeen followed with a 164 percent rise in apartments over the last year, while Hillsdale and Sydney Olympic Park showed rises of 150 percent and 130 percent respectively.
The data was taken from the latest Stock on Market data compiled by realestateinvestar.com.au. 
Ryde has over 175 units for sale, but this time last year it was at 130, so the jump was not as high in available stock.
Liverpool has some 200 units available for sale, up from 110 this time last year.
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<td> Suburb</td>
<td> Current Units for sale</td>
<td> Units 12 months ago</td>
<td> Percent change</td>
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<td> Hillsdale</td>
<td> 25</td>
<td> 10</td>
<td> 150</td>
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<td> Narrabeen</td>
<td> 37</td>
<td> 14</td>
<td> 164</td>
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<td> North Ryde</td>
<td> 77</td>
<td> 29</td>
<td> 165</td>
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<td> Sydney Olympic Park</td>
<td> 90</td>
<td> 39</td>
<td> 130</td>
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A two bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-north+ryde-126937294" target="_blank">20/5B Whiteside Street</a> in North Ryde is on the market in the price range $859,500 to $945,450. 
The brand new apartment is part of the recently completed complex "Macquarie Green", picture above.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/11/28/RydeEx1.jpg" alt="">
Another one-bedroom apartment at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-north+ryde-125687602" target="_blank">A119/5 Whiteside Street</a> is on sale for $720,000 to $740,000.
It has been developed by the TOGA and Gresham Group.
The Sydney CBD has over 120 units for sale.
 
 
 
 
 
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