Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

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GUEST OBSERVER
The property market always moves reliably in swings, peaks and corrections. Just like the stock market it can be fuelled by skittishness, nerves and sheer hype. When you add emotion to that, you get a dangerous mix.
A number of property experts, from Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and the University of NSW and many others have all come out recently to warn of an oversupply of apartment products and a projected decline in demand. While Melbourne seems to be headed for a certain oversupply, Sydney is also in danger of falling down this path.
In such a fertile time for property investment how could this be? To understand this you need to comprehend the historic reasons that have led us here.
In the aftermath of the GFC confidence in the property market, in any market really, was at an all time low. It was extremely difficult for even some of the strongest property groups in Australia to get their projects up. Major lenders were very cautious and the whole market was flat and carefully ticking along. Land developers were actually trying to encourage people to buy blocks out in Western Sydney – which, only five years on, seems absurd now.
The real trigger that caused a turnaround was the last Federal election. This led to a feverish run in investor sentiment. A realisation dawned that it wasn’t the end of the world and that financially speaking. Australia had actually been in pretty good shape.
Sentiments quickly changed and this caused a sharp spike in prices. As everyone started buying land or apartments there was a massive price escalation. The problem, of course, is that it takes a while to get any stock on the market. Consider the general bureaucratic hurdles in getting a DA approval or land subdivisions.
The low interest rates, a relatively strong economy and the appeal of property (which has now overtaken the share market as a better place to invest cash) all served to create hype and euphoria. Add to this the average assets in Sydney and Melbourne being so much higher than in other parts of Australia, has allowed people to borrow off their equity and make big investments elsewhere. Then, because everyone has seen values increase quickly in a short space of time, this has led to a frenzy of buying and investment.
So a log jam of development submissions and big land projects from a few years ago is now bursting into fruition. The problem is that it’s now outstripping demand. A recent report by BIS Shrapnel has estimated that we’ll see almost  12,000 new apartments built in Sydney in the next three years. There’s still quite a waiting list in land out in western Sydney as this is now all that’s available in Sydney.
The big problem has been buying the wrong kind of product at the wrong time. Specifically the mistakes made by investors has been mostly found in off the off the plan products. Developers are very good at feeding off hype. They will create the most gorgeously glossy brochures loudly broadcasting apartments that you can buy into, starting at only $700,000 for a one-bedroom apartment in Sydney.
But, as we often discover, that can mean you’re buying the worst apartment and the prices in the complex just start escalating from there. Many investors are buying believing the recent gains will continue at the same pace. What they risk is over-paying or buying at the top of the market and seeing their prices go sideways for many years. The climate is similar to 2002/2003 wherein Sydney had already seen an incredible run up in prices, when the market then peaked.
Sydney then had the worst property market for a decade, in terms of growth up to 2012. The last 3 years have been quite dramatic, yet it would be very foolish to pay record prices at the top of the market hoping that in 12-18months you will have made a gain. The opposite could very well be the result.
The other problem has been investors trying to get finance for off-the-plan apartments. Loan approvals only last three months yet the settlement may not occur for 12 – 18 months. In the background, APRA have been putting a squeeze on banks to slow down investor lending, so this too has a consequence.
So by the time the investor is ready for finance, the banks may reduce their initial valuation of the property and demand a higher deposit. For investors working with tight margins this can be disastrous. The investor is then unable to settle because they don’t have enough cash and the banks have valued lower. They default and lose their deposit and their property becomes another form of supply on the market.
 This then creates a perfect storm where values start dropping and the positive sentiment disappears. This has another consequence that with an oversupply of apartments (often negatively geared) there’s too much competition and so rents start dropping, which in turn pushes the investment downwards.
 So from a confident position of market jubilation it’s remarkable and instructive how quickly things can change. The key message is that it doesn’t matter how good the conditions are if you purchase the wrong product and don’t look at the bigger picture. Far too many first time investors make classic mistakes through eagerness and not talking to an expert.
It’s worth remembering that a market driven by hype will always be found out.
 
SAM KHALIL is founder and director of <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/" target="_blank">Direct Property Network</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Apartment oversupply will ensure recent gains not continue at same pace: DPN's Sam Khalil

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2016 will be the year that puts some Sydney suburbs on the map according to Douglas Driscoll, CEO of real estate agency Starr Partners.
Douglas predicted the top 10 suburbs set to take off in 2016:
1.  Leppington.  “More rezoning will occur throughout 2016 so Leppington will become popular for land sales.  Being south of Badgerys Creek, I anticipate it to be the next suburb to genuinely emerge.  It will be close enough to the new airport but far away enough from it that plane noise won’t be an issue.” The median price of a home in Leppington is $675,000, <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>. 
2.  St Marys.  “St Marys is one of the last great Sydney ‘true blue’ suburbs.  With the state government’s move to reserve a rail corridor there for a direct route to Badgerys Creek airport, it’s definitely one to watch. The suburb is already well-established, will become very well connected (and is already connected to the M4 and M7) and will be close yet just far away enough from the airport. And above all else, it’s affordable.” The median price of a home in St Marys is $555,000, <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>.  
3.  North Sydney.  “North Sydney is really going to take off in 2016. There is some redevelopment happening in the area presently and this, combined with the new metro train lines under construction and the second tunnel under Sydney Harbour, as well as the arrival of Coles and Woolworths, means it’s a real one to watch. Right now, North Sydney doesn’t have a firm identity, it’s not sure what it is or what it is supposed to be but I anticipate it will find its feet and form its own identity – it’s a nice area, close to the water and to the city. An honourable mention should also be made for the neighbouring suburb of Crows Nest, which is also earmarked for a new metro station.” The median price of a home in North Sydney is $1,726300, <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>. 
4.  Baulkham Hills.  “I predict that 2016 will be the year Baulkham Hills starts to emerge from the shadow of its neighbour, Castle Hill. With eight new train stations currently under construction around the area, it’s very much a convenient suburb and there is a lot of urban regeneration and redevelopment plans underway.  It’s more affordable than Castle Hill and has the potential to become as desirable.” The median price of a home in Baulkham Hills is $1,030,000 <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>. 
5.  Auburn.  “Slowly but surely, Auburn will be absorbed into the Inner West. It’s the next major suburb along so it is inevitable that the suburb will start to fall more into that bracket.  Not only this, Auburn is a suburb that demonstrates good value. It’s also a great representation of modern Australia, being the most multicultural suburb in the country.”  The median price of a home in Auburn is $860,5000 <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>.
6.  Hornsby.  “Hornsby is a great area for families and professionals working in Sydney’s CBD. It has recently undergone significant redevelopment and improvement, including upgraded trains, which can get you into the city in 35 minutes. It is also surrounded by a lot of beautiful parks and countryside.” The median price of a home in Hornsby is $1,000,750 <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>. 
7. Camperdown.  “It’s almost unthinkable that Camperdown and its surrounding suburbs could become even more popular but expect it to happen in the next 12 months.  Ultimo is down the road and has the highest ratio of renters in Australia (95%), which will trickle down to areas like Camperdown, Chippendale and Newtown. What sets Camperdown apart is that it has a university and there is a strong case for a metro train interchange to be built there. Transport is one of the absolute factors driving property prices so things like improvements to public transport and motorway ramps make areas more desirable.” The median price of a home in Camperdown is $1,275,000 <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>. 
8. Riverstone.  “Believe it or not, land is selling in Riverstone almost every day and next year, we will start seeing major new developments popping up.  A significant amount of work has been spent rezoning the area, and I really think it’s going to flourish in 2016. Neighbouring suburbs like Rouse Hill and Schofields have already been redeveloped but Riverstone is fresh, new, and on the doorstep of Marsden Park, the location of Sydney Business Park, a new commercial precinct with Ikea and Costco setting up shop, as well as Lindt moving its headquarters to the estate. This new business district will create hundreds of new jobs and we know that most people want to live within close proximity to work.” The median price of a home in Riverstone is $675,000 <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>. 
9. Botany.  “Botany is a nice established location with a real diverse cross-section of properties. It’s a suburb that is ideal for families, a very convenient distance from the airport and only 11km away from the CBD. I think it’s certainly going to see some overspill from the rest of the Eastern Suburbs in 2016.”   The median price of a home in Botany is $1,15,000 <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>. 
10. Dee Why.  “Dee Why is another suburb that has seen significant regeneration recently. It’s always been seen as the poor relation of the Northern Beaches but the town planners there have some great ideas for the area and are very forward thinking. Pricewise, Dee Why is so much more affordable than Manly down the road and other affluent beach suburbs near the north and I can guarantee it will become its own little epicentre soon enough. Dee Why’s main drag is going to get a bit of a facelift, new properties have been approved, and the traffic flow has been changed to accommodate more residents. It’s so much more than you think.”  The median price of a home in Botany is $1,411,000 <a href="/news">according to CoreLogic RP Data</a>.
DOUGLAS DRISCOLL is CEO of real estate agency <a href="https://www.starrpartners.com.au/" target="_blank">Starr Partners</a>.
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The 10 Sydney suburbs set to take off in 2016: Doug Driscoll

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Next year could be the time for the quiet cities to shine.
While Sydney/Melbourne have been rising, and Perth/Darwin falling, the other four capital cities have been apparently dormant in the middle of the pack. 
But sales activity patterns, taken with other indicators, suggest we can expect better things from Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart in 2016. 
The Canberra market appears poised for recovery, the Tasmanian economy is improving and the Hobart market is producing increasingly positive statistics, while both Brisbane and Adelaide have sales momentum in specific precincts, which are likely to deliver growth in the New Year. 
There is considerable movement in Brisbane markets. Within the Greater Brisbane area, the pecking order keeps changing and new markets keep emerging while others subside.
A year ago Brisbane North was strong, with many suburbs delivering double-digit price growth, but now the momentum is very much south of the CBD. 
Logan City is the leading precinct with large numbers of growth markets, while the Brisbane South market has stepped up in the second half of 2015 and remains strong going into the New Year.
Logan City has 18 suburbs with rising sales trends, which is the second best in Australia (behind the resurgent Gold Coast).
The most noticeable gains recently have been made by Ipswich City in the south-west of the metropolitan area. Traditionally, Ipswich City has been the leading capital growth precinct in Brisbane. Now, after several down years, it’s making a comeback and is a market to watch, with a high level of affordability and a strong infrastructure spend.
Adelaide is a rising market, but to date significant price growth has been isolated to select precincts. 
Sales activity in the past four quarters has been higher, in each case, than the corresponding period a year earlier. This includes the September 2015 Quarter, which produced the best sales result for this time period for the past four years.
The Adelaide market has been on a generally upward path for the past two years, without ever achieving boom status. The rise in activity has been gradual rather than dramatic – and to date price growth has been moderate – except in specific areas, notably in the middle-market precincts in the western suburbs. 
Right now, Adelaide has twice as many growth suburbs as Sydney and looks good for better performance in 2016.
Tasmania keeps sending out signals that its economy is improving and that confidence is rising – and we are seeing glimmers of improved activity in property markets, as well as some solid numbers from Hobart in terms of growth in rents and prices. 
Canberra sales activity in the September Quarter confirmed my previous assessment that the market had arrested its earlier decline, after two years of stagnating or decreasing sales in its markets.  
There have been improvements in house sales levels, but the unit market remains weak. This is reflected in the latest price growth data from CoreLogic RP Data, which shows a 5.1% annual rise in the House Value Index but a 2.6% annual decrease for units.  
In terms of total sales in the ACT, including both houses and units, every quarter this calendar year has recorded higher sales than in the same quarter in 2014. 
Typically in Canberra, the December Quarter is the strongest period for house sales – and I expect the current trend of gradually rising sales activity to continue into the December 2015 Quarter.
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

2016 may be the year of the quiet city: Terry Ryder

Australia’s links to China set to broaden: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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The most expensive sale in Adelaide this week was a four bedroom home in Malvern.
The property was sold for $1.3 million by Luke Holden and James Robertson of Belle Property Unley.
The property has an open courtyard with an ornate sandstone water feature. 
Malvern is just outside the Adelaide CBD and is a short walk to public transport and excellent schools.
The property notched up an annual appreciation of 3.9% after being traded in 2002 for $775,000.
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Four bedroom Malvern home Adelaide's most expensive

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A luxury residence in Canterbury was the most expensive sale in Victoria across the past week.
The $7.4 million sale of Cranston was sold at private mid-week auction through Castan Gilbert inconjunction with Kay &amp; Burton.
The Edwardian designed home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-canterbury-121123534" target="_blank">30 Balwyn Road</a> was built in 1900.
It last traded in 2005 for $3.4 million, an impressive annual appreciation of 7.69 per cent.
The family home features a swimming pool, tennis court and a walk-in wine cellar.
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Melbourne Canterbury sale weekend's most expensive

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<div>Last week Reserve Bank Governor Stevens disclosed that he had discussed with his underlings whether the Reserve should do away with its apparently precise central growth, unemployment and inflation forecasts, in favour of publishing only their 'fan charts' and ranges in tables. </div>
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<div>By way of an example the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) forecasts showed GDP growth returning to 3 to 4% by the year ended December 2017, with the unemployment rate forecast to decline gradually, but the fan charts show that even the 70 per cent confidence intervals are surprisingly wide. </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/RBA3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>Noting that accurate forecasting is impossible, Stevens lamented that even if even if the central lines were to be left off the fan charts altogether, those awkward commentator folk would simply back it of the charts, which seems rather unfair. In short, the most powerful central bank or econometric modelling can't forecast accurately what will happen over any meaningful time horizon, and neither can you!</div>
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<div>Ponzi scheme</div>
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<div>Also last week a macro market report hit the headlines likening the Australian property market to a Ponzi scheme. Australians would be forgiven for thinking that they've heard such warnings before, for the simple reason that they have, more or less continuously since 2001. I haven't read the report in question, so am in no position to critique the content, but to his credit Lindsay David of LF Economics has previously made predictions that are specific, measurable and time-bound, and so his predictions can be judged accordingly. </div>
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<div>Co-author Philip Soos has nothing if not longevity, rolling out his crash predictions for such a long period of time that they are threatening to see off their fifth Prime Ministerial term of office (his views were expressed in some detail in the piece "Bubbling Over: The End of Australia's $2 Trillion Housing Party" which predicted a 40 per cent crash for housing values nationally). </div>
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<div>The last time anyone bothered to check the value of Australian dwelling stock had swelled to $5.8 trillion with the latest available data implying that $6 trillion is a shoo-in, probably before the end of the calendar year.</div>
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<div>To be fair, on the one hand dwelling prices have indeed corrected sharply in any number of mining towns and regions: Gladstone, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Dysart, and Moranbah spring to mind, and no doubt there are plenty of others. On the other hand figures released by Residex at the end of last week showed that Sydney's median house price has increased from $668,000 at the end of 2010 to $1,058,500 by the end of October 2015, an increase of more than 58 per cent or nearly $400,000. Buried under the emotive rhetoric Soos has made a number of robust arguments, in particular the illusory nature of housing shortages, which are seemingly apparent when the economy is humming along, but can wondrously vanish into thin air when market downturns happen. These simple points highlight the perennial challenges facing macro property market research reports and forecasts: market timing and granularity.</div>
 Timing <div>While macro research can identify downside risks and probabilities, history suggests that it is very difficult to forecast housing markets accurately over any meaningul time horizon.</div>
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Famously Case &amp; Shiller called the US real estate bubble in July 2003 when its index read 142.99, yet the index ran all the way to 206.52 in July 2006 before reversing all the way back from whence it came to 134.07 in March 2012 (the latest Case-Shiller reading in 2015 showed the index to be 28 percent above the level it was tracking at the time of the original bubble call, while homeowners have continued to benefit from housing services throughout).
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There would be similar tales in Northern Ireland where average house prices all but tripled from £88,000 to £226,000 between 2002 and 2007 before crashing all the way back to £125,000. An obvious bubble, sure, but the timing was difficult (if not impossible) to pick. The average price today has increased again to £162,000, approaching double the average house price in 2002.
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<div>In London we have heard crash predictions for at least the past decade-and-a-half, while despite downturns and recessions house prices in some boroughs have tripled...and still there has been no crash.</div>
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Few would disagree that parts of Australia's housing market are seriously expensive, but timing the downturns is rarely as easy as it appears in hindisght. 
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Granularity 
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<div>The state level data shows that since September 2011, New South Wales (+57 per cent) and Victoria (+23 per cent) have accounted for 80 per cent of the increase in the total value of dwelling stock, while the figures for the June 2015 quarter showed that prices are declining in Western Australia and the Northern Territory.</div>
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<div>Click to enlarge</div>
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<div>The obvious point here being that there is no "Australian property market", rather a series of sub-markets which cover 9.6 million dwellings and demonstrate very different characteristics and fundamentals. Having observed the history of bubble predictions Scott Sumner once concluded that:  "If we notice market movements that seem to align with our initial forecasts we tend to pat ourselves on the back and assume the forecasts were correct. This is one of many cognitive biases that human beings are prone to. Pay no attention to bubble forecasts. They are useless. Indeed the entire bubble concept is useless." <div> </div>
<div>Risk markets</div>
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<div>Last year Soos wrote that due to it having the strongest yields Darwin has the smallest property bubble, a theory which might hold some sway in an academic vacuum, but shows a worrying lack of understanding of the real world and what caused the Top End's housing boom in the first place. </div>
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<div>In fact, in my opinion at any rate, Darwin appears to be the capital city with by far the greatest risk of a genuine price crash, with rents now in freefall and vacancy rates rising sharply (cf. the illusory supply shortage identified by Soos himself). </div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/11/30/SQM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>Thin property markets such as Darwin with a relatively small population are more prone to shifts in dynamics at the margin, and as population growth switches into reverse gear by the end of this calendar year the results to the downside could be spectacular. </div>
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<div>Other high risk markets include any number of regional areas with a residual resources capex footprint, with mining capex now collapsing, while parts of inner city Melbourne and Brisbane are suffering from overbuilding of new apartments, with APRA's lending crackdown set to leave many off-the-plan buyers short. </div>
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<div>Even within capital city markets there are sub-markets which can be expected to experience diverging fortunes. </div>
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<div>For example, with the population still expanding rapidly, Sydney has a number of inner city markets for which demand is so high that any correction in prices will be met by a wave of new buyers. On the other hand, price inflation in some of the outer western Sydney locations over the past few years has been so far beyond absurd that even a 40 per cent correction might represent a neutral scenario.</div>
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<div>Property Observer recently reported on the report by LF Economics comparing Australia's housing market to a Ponzi scheme, which you can read here.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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Forecasting real estate myths: Pete Wargent

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Valuation firm Herron Todd White's November review noted that the residential property market in the NSW Southern Highlands has been on the increase for the past 18 months.
This is most apparent in the lower price bracket, up to $1.3 million, according to the month in review.
The November report goes on to suggest investor activity is strongest under $1 million with investors being a mix of local and Sydney based purchasers.
"Traditionally detached homes are the most common property type for buyers in the region, which are typically modern project homes on the periphery of the townships at East Bowral, Renwick or Moss Vale, or well located, renovated older style homes close to town centres.
"There is also demand for well located townhouses and villas, in particular with a seniors living focus for retirees, that are close to local amenities such as the hospital, shops and parks.
"Price points vary for homes across the region from say $480,000 up to $1,000,000.
"Gross yields typically range from 4.5% to 5.5% In Moss Vale and Mittagong, a modern project style home can still be purchased in the $450,000 to $500,000 range."
The HTW report adds the Southern Tablelands offers more choices and affordability for potential investors with lower price entry levels than the Highlands.
"Goulburn, with a population of around 24,000, has a steady workforce and is a popular country holiday destination.
"Due to the high real estate prices in Sydney, Goulburn offers an affordable option for Sydney investors and there has been increasing activity from this sector.
"Depending on dwelling, land size and quality of the home, for between $400,000 and $500,000 an investor can purchase a new, modern home and expect a rental return of between $400 and $520 per week.
"Yields are in the range of 4.75% to 5.75%."
According to the report there are not many strata title properties in this region, with the preference being for detached dwellings.
The HTW report also notes investor activity has assisted in contributing to the increasing price and volume trends apparent in the Highlands and the Tablelands.
"Rental levels have been steady to increasing in the Highlands.
"In Goulburn, rental levels have actually marginally declined over the current period."
This trend is due to additional supply together with some Canberra commuters leaving Goulburn to return to the ACT, the November review states.
"In our opinion, if lending criteria was to tighten, this would reduce investor activity in the Goulburn region to a degree.
"There would be less investment properties, vacancy rates would tighten and rental levels would increase.
"In terms of an impact on the overall Southern Highlands market, it is considered this would have minimal impact, as most buyers are local home occupiers and people relocating from Sydney."
 
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Goulburn residential rentals marginally decline: HTW

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Melbourne agents secured a weekend clearance rate of 67%, compared to 65% last week and 65% on the same weekend last year.
Melbourne buyers met the supply challenge of the biggest auction day in its history.
Balanced rather than strong was how vendor adviser, Peter Sarmas described the result.
There were 1467 auctions reported to the REIV this weekend, with another 400 results yet to come. 
It has been a record month, with about 5,700 auctions held - 300 more than in November last year, the REIV chief Enzo Raimondo said.
The dearest weekend result reported to the REIV was $3.55 million in Brighton, although a private auction mid-week had secured a $7.4 million sale in Canterbury. 
<a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/17-elwood-street-brighton/Property-Details-buy-residential-9732195" target="_blank">The Brighton sale</a> was a four bedroom house on the edge of the Golden Mile with the 889sqm, north facing lot offering an opportunity to re-build or redevelop, Brakspear House.
The $3.55 million auction sale was higher than its $3.33 million private treaty sale in June this year to Chinese buyers. Buxton selling agent Stefan Whiting was telling inspectees that the client was re-located overseas by the corporate he worked for.
The offerng at 34 Ferrars Place, South Melbourne was passed in at $4,6 million with just the one bidder.
 
TOP 5 HOUSES
1. 17 Elwood Street, Brighton $3,550,000
2. 167 Finch Street, Glen Iris $2,756,000
3. 31B Park Crescent, Aberfeldie $2,750,000
4. 11 Belson Street, Malvern East $2,710,000
5. 14 Terry Street, Balwyn $2,700,000
 
TOP 5 BARGAIN HOUSES
1. 309 Stumpy Gully Road, Balnarring $253,000
2. 8 Peter Court, Langwarrin $295,000
3. 32 Lorraine Crescent, Jacana $295,000
4. 11 Cullen Drive, Wyndham Vale $296,000
5. 3 Marong Court, Broadmeadows $308,500
 
TOP 5 APARTMENTS
1. 27A Irymple Avenue, Glen Iris $2,188,000
2. 3.01/125-139 Rathdowne Street, Carlton $2,075,000
3. 65 Draper Street, Albert Park $1,670,000
4. 2/30 Erskine Street, North Melbourne $1,420,000
5. 2/22 Pascoe Avenue, Bentleigh $1,350,000
 
TOP 5 BARGAIN APARTMENTS
1. 2/29 Kirby Street, Reservoir $271,000
2. 2/10 Edgar Street, Hadfield $285,000
3. 1/249 Burnley Street, Richmond $300,000
4. 3/7 Sydney Street, Footscray $307,000
5. 3/7 Adam Street, Richmond $331,000
Source: <a href="https://www.reiv.com.au" target="_blank">REIV </a>
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Melbourne's busiest auction day sees steady success rate: REIV

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Herron Todd White has advised that Brisbane should be seen as a long-term option for investors, according to their latest monthly report.
It noted Brisbane was "enjoying some great attention while avoiding a feeding frenzy, which is just the way we like it," the November review explained.
"We’d also like to believe investors are well informed buyers who keenly research their markets before making the big decision to purchase, but this is sadly not always true.
"Plenty of property is sold to unsuspecting non-locals charmed by the idea of depreciation benefits and easy cash, and this is rarely smart buying."
The review shows that the strongest activity from investors in the past year has been city-centric – suburbs close to the CBD such as Fortitude Valley, Newstead, New Farm, Teneriffe, Bowen Hills, and Hamilton have experienced the lion’s share of investor buyers in the north.
The review also shows that south of the river, investors have been keen on South Brisbane and West End where towers continue to grow across the suburbs.
"While these areas offer solid, blue-chip real estate with the location, location, location box ticked, different developments are attracting different buyer groups, and some may be in for bad news on future growth.
"Some projects appeal predominantly to locals, however others are selling to interstate and international buyers who may not be overly informed about what’s happening on the ground in our city.
"In addition many are sold prior to completion with marketing arms determining who gets to buy the product, rather than buyers choosing for themselves."
The report goes on to suggest that in Brisbane, many of the fundamentals for good investments were at work - ie being close to amenities, public transport and school catchments are major pluses, and café precincts or proximity to the city all work in particular when appealing to young professionals as tenants.
Herron Todd White say that in Brisbane, buyers are (or at least should be), looking at the quality and condition of the product, but this must be considered in tandem with position and proximity to nodes like universities, school catchments, public transport and other amenities, so rent can be maximised.
"There is of course also the important question of money.
"When talking about price points for investor stock the New Farm/Teneriffe/Newstead area will set you back around $800,000 to $1.1million, while a bit further out in Ascot, Hamilton and Clayfield, investors are spending around $500,000 to $800,000.
"If you’re looking at the inner- to mid-ring suburbs of Greenslopes and Annerley on the south side, expect to pay $550,000 to $650,000 for an entry level 3-bed, 1-bath home."
The report indicates that should you travel a little further out to Sunnybank and entry level property is around $500,000. For those wanting to dip their toe into the Brisbane market without making a major outlay, Marsden on the south side has product in the early $300,000s however there is a bit of stock at present and rents are relatively static
"For many buyers, successful serviceability of a loan is all about returns. Gross yields in Brisbane are generally 4.% to 5.5% across most holdings.
"When looking at the price for units on the south side, established units in Coorparoo and Greenslopes reflect figures from $350,000 and up for an entry level, 2-bed, 1-bath attached dwelling. Closer in and new one bedders in West End and South Brisbane are over $400,000, while two bedders are in the high $500,000s.
"As for market outlook, the sustainability of investor activity over the medium term depends on a number of variables such as interest rates, APRA regulations and the old chestnuts of demand and supply. Inner city units are at risk of oversupply and falling values may follow in the short term.
The in month reviews suggests the problem is compounded by Brisbane’s migration levels being at an all-time low.
"They haven’t increased relative to the amount of development being undertaken within the Brisbane region, so things could get tight for some markets.
"The APRA regulations are already impacting the market here – particularly with buyers who are already at their maximum LVR.
"If demand begins waning, the inner city unit market would be most affected and there’d be a flow on effect due to the substantial supply forecast for units.
"That said, Brisbane is generally a solid market for investors.
"Our tip is to buy as close to the CBD as possible and get value for money by looking seriously at second hand stock being sold locally, or homes where the land value is solid.
"It’s the best way to mitigate risk."
 
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