Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

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The median rental for properties in Sydney's rental heartland, Randwick was unchanged in September-October from the previous quarter, but the average days on the market came down. 
According to a report by <a href="https://www.rent.com.au" target="_blank">rent.com.au</a> the median rental price for a 30-day period was $580 per week, same as the previous quarter, it said.
Surrounding suburbs of Centennial Park, Queens Park, Waverley, Clovelly, Kingsford, Kensington, Coogee and South Coogee, however, commanded a higher median rental of $600 during the quarter, and also the previous one, the data showed.
The average days on the market for rental properties advertised in Randwick in the 90 days covered by the report was 17 days, four days less than the last quarter and about half of the 33 days on the market for properties in nearby suburbs.
There were 102 rental properties advertised in Randwick in the last 30 days before the report came out in mid-October - this is up six from the previous 30 days, the report to landlords noted.
The total number of rental properties in the suburb was 5,230, making up 47.8% of all properties in Randwick, according to ABS data in 2011.
The property composition in Randwick is made up of about 68 percent apartments and 32 percent as houses. 
<a href="/images/2015/12/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-16%20at%2011.52.40%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Randwick rentals constant at $580 per week: Rent.com.au report

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The number of residential vacancies nationally picked back up slightly during November, in line with seasonal trends, latest figures by property research house SQM Research show.
The vacancy rate was 2.3% nationally, and there were 71,737 vacancies, the data shows. 
Vacancies appear to be following the common seasonal trends expected at this time of year, where rental accommodation tends to become more available for a variety of factors.
The most predominant of these is the departure of university students from their regular rental accommodation over the four-month summer break.
Over the last year vacancies in both Perth and Darwin have almost doubled, with November figures showing a yearly rise of 59% for Perth.
Most other capital cities remained stable year-on-year, with Hobart and Melbourne recording yearly declines.
The falls in Hobart most likely relate to the recovery in its local economy, in turn being benefited from the lower Australian dollar helping its local tourist industry, says SQM.
Year-on-year results for Sydney reveal a tight residential market, with a vacancy rate of 1.7% based on 10,045 vacancies in November.
<a href="/images/2015/12/15/eb23b8cc-baf5-4976-8155-0351a86438d8.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/15/eb23b8cc-baf5-4976-8155-0351a86438d8.png" alt="">
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November residential vacancies pick up as holiday season sees foreign student exodus: SQM 

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GUEST OBSERVER - 2016 ANTICIPATORY YEAR IN REVIEW! 
The year started with markets successfully coming to terms with the first rate hike from the Federal Reserve since 2006.
The language from the statement on December 16 and associated speeches from various officials emphasised that markets were not to expect the style of the three previous tightening cycles which lasted around a year and saw rates lifted by 200-300 basis points.
However, it became increasingly clear that the US economy, led by the household sector, was beginning to gather some momentum. Accordingly, markets started to anticipate a more marked pace of tightening through 2016 and 2017 than had been anticipated in 2015.
In the early months, these anticipations proved to be prescient as the US household sector responded to strong jobs growth; low oil prices and an improving housing market.
In the event, the US economy seemed reasonably resilient to higher rates and a rising USD with the FED actually tightening on four occasions – the last move in December.
The US share market also responded to the improving growth outlook. The share market, which had been flat in 2015, reacted maturely, accepting that a modest uplift in interest rates right across the curve was really just consistent with the return toward more normal financial conditions (as opposed to the QE period) and bond rates more accurately reflected growth and inflation expectations. In turn, those growth expectations improved steadily through the year while inflation settled around the FED’s target of 2%.
Such an environment provided a gradual boost to the US dollar although markets had already boosted the US dollar strongly (up 25%) in the previous two years in anticipation of the FED’s first move. Further dollar strength of around 10% did not unnecessarily constrain the consumer led boost to the US economy.
However, in the first half of the year, this boost to US demand had not been sufficient to stabilise commodity markets. The volatile downswing in commodity prices continued through the first half of 2016, albeit at a slower pace than we had seen in the closing months of 2015. 
China’s officials continued to ease policy through lower interest rates; lower bank reserve ratios and some further direct assistance to the housing market. But unsold housing inventory remained formidable and construction and industrial production continued to slow. On the other hand, policies directed at boosting consumption were proving to be successful. The rebalancing of China’s economy progressed further in 2016. 
In the early months of 2016, low cost producers in iron ore; coal; oil and gas further boosted supply despite weak demand. Prices for these producers remained above production costs although profits were squeezed. The resulting weakness in commodity prices weighed further on the currencies and incomes of the commodity exporting economies. Those emerging economies like Brazil; Russia; Indonesia and Malaysia with high levels of dollar based borrowings and reliance on commodities were caught in the pincer effect of weakening incomes and rising costs of funding foreign debt. 
Those economies which relied on manufacturing goods (including other ASEAN; other East Asia ) and exports to the US consumer did much better seeing their currencies stabilise and interest rates relatively steady. Other emerging markets which relied mainly on domestic demand and were prepared to embrace reform, like India, boosted growth.
Europe stabilised at a better growth rate than had been expected at the beginning of the year. European households continued to embrace lower oil prices; record low interest rates and easier credit and the fall in the EUR to around parity with the USD boosted exports, particularly consumer based exports to the US and China. Fears about a break-up of the Euro system eased as the region’s growth momentum improved. 
Australia was dealt the following “hand” by the rest of the world: slowly rising interest rates particularly in the long end of the curve (courtesy of the US Federal Reserve); a weakening AUD (down around 10% in the first half of the year); further falls in commodity prices leading to another 10% fall in its terms of trade and an improvement in equity markets as US and European markets provided a positive lead – although in the first half of the year the resources sector continued to languish.
Markets were longing for a stabilisation in commodity prices and by mid -year some difficulties in supply chains in the oil sector and an unexpected moderation in supply from traditional producers; a sharp lift in closures of high cost Chinese iron ore mines and the on -going boost from the US consumer improved prospects of stability in the second half. Equity markets quickly seized on those prospects for stability.
The downward momentum in the terms of trade through the first half of the year constrained income growth for the third year in a row.
Australian households managed to maintain spending at a faster pace than expected by further lowering the savings rate given the services driven boost to employment growth and surprising stability in housing markets. Poorest housing performance over the year was centred around Western Australia and regional Queensland reflecting the ongoing stresses in those economies with the unwinding of the mining boom. The so called “overheated” markets in Sydney and Melbourne showed some pockets of weakness but generally disappointed the doomsayers. 
China continued to affect Australia through three channels – resource volumes and prices; services exports and capital inflows. As commodity supply adjusted to the weaker demand conditions the focus was gradually taken off the resources link to focus on services exports and capital flows. Developments in China continued to be favourable to those latter channels. Tourism and education continued to increase rapidly, especially in NSW and Victoria, while there was no slowing in direct investment interest in Australia by Chinese households and firms. 
Australia’s property markets stabilised. Offshore investment demand in residential and commercial property took up where it left off in 2015. House price appreciation slowed markedly but there was no sign of falls, except in some pockets directly affected by the mining downturn. Home owners and investors enjoyed a year of reasonable calm in the housing market.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, wary of the impact of the commodity cycle on Australia, held rates steady for the entire year. However, as markets began to observe some stability in commodity markets, prospects for an eventual rate hike in Australia started to firm with the most likely timing centring on mid–2017.  
2016 was a Federal election year. The new Liberal leadership aimed at boosting confidence which would mean a stronger spending response than might be expected given the income squeeze from the weaker terms of trade. There was no “big bang” in the Budget. Despite much talk about increasing the GST; cutting the company tax rate; and yet another overhaul of superannuation, the government steered a much more conservative course. 
The fiscal objective was not to target a “surplus” date but to demonstrate that the deficit was gradually shrinking, greatly assisted by reasonable anticipation of stability in commodity markets from around mid–year. Opportunities were taken to introduce “positive growth” packages such as more funds for infrastructure; innovation and education. Spending cuts were limited to funding new growth initiatives.
Markets were more focussed on policies and the election than some need for rapid Budget repair. 
Australia retained its AAA rating for another year particularly as it became clear through the year that the commodity cycle was stabilising. 
Sadly neither political party was prepared to address reform of the labour market , arguably Australia’s most pressing need. Local election forecasts are beyond the scope of even this report. 
The US election delivered an unsurprising result with the return of the Clinton dynasty. Hilary Clinton defeated a spirited Marco Rubio who was exhausted and financially drained by his campaign to stop Donald Trump in the Republican primaries. 
As we enter 2017, we acknowledge that, arguably, the three most powerful positions on the planet – US President; the Chancellor of Germany; and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve are now held by great women. 
 
Story teller Bill Evans is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. He wrote a one off anticipatory year in review suggesting just how 2016 might pan out.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

No signs of house price falls other than in mining towns: Westpac's Bill Evans' look forward 2016 Year in Review

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A reasonably solid set of Lending Finance numbers were reported for October 2015, with commercial finance fairly flat, down 1% at a seasonally adjusted $45.6 billion (following a 9% jump in September), and total lending tentatively inching up to a new trend high of $73.7 billion. 
Both commercial lending and total lending finance have recently breached 7 year highs.
<a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF1.jpg" alt="">
 
As we saw earlier in the week, owner-occupier lending has increased very sharply, with commitments for the purchase or construction of dwellings up by 23% over the past year on a seasonally adjusted basis.
<a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF2.jpg" alt="">
 
<div>Lease finance increased by 17 per cent over the year, but loans for the purchase of blocks of residential land are down by some 25 per cent since one year ago.</div>
 Investor finance derailed 
<div>The flip side to the strong home loans data is that the cooling macroprudential measures implemented by APRA have derailed the runaway investor boom, with investor commitments crashing off their respective tracks across every state and territory.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF3.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>Demand was fading in Western Australia and the Northern Territory in any case, and now after lending curbs even those who want to source investor finance are struggling to do so. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Prices will almost certainly thus follow rents down in 2016 in Perth and Darwin. The Top End in particular is looking set for a sharp correction, with median detached house rents having declined by around 20% and investor loans now tanking, down by more than 40 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/NT.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/NT.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
Borrowers flipping the script <div>The crimping of investor lending has clearly been enough to bring many property markets back to stall speed, as evidenced by stumbling auction clearance rates. However, there is a bit more to this than meets the eye, and it does not necessarily follow that APRA's measures will lead to declining house prices across the board (it seems unlikely that this was the intention in any case).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For "Exhibit A" the Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregrates data has already implied that some loans are being switched to or reclassified as owner-occupier products, as borrowers aim to obtain the cheaper mortgage rates now associated with that sector of the market (see <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/credit-growth-at-near-7-year-high" target="_blank">here</a> for more).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And now for "Exhibit B", refer to the Housing Finance data for October released this week, which implies exactly the same thing, that borrowers and lenders are flipping the script in order to counter APRA's regulatory intervention. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/15/LF4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/12/15/LF4.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date most of the increase in owner-occupier commitments has been focussed upon New South Wales and Victoria, although a fair proportion of that has related to refinancing rather than genuinely new lending.</div>
<div> </div>
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<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates data for October mirrored these trends closely, the net result being that housing credit growth rose to a fresh cyclical high of 7.5%, although it does seem that the pace of increase is steadying. </div>
 The wrap <div> </div>
<div>There is evidently quite a bit going on in the housing finance space at the moment and not a great deal of clarity surrounding the numbers. In truth some lenders themselves probably have little clarity around the classification of loans beyond their initiation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To date it has become clear that the APRA measures have scrambled the market and have stopped the Sydney boom from rolling unchecked into another calendar year, with investor commitments having pulled back sharply right across the board. In time, this will be seen to be a worthy step, since many markets had become far too top-heavy with investors. At the peak of the investor market, excluding refinancing, in New South Wales and Victoria investor loans had breached 60 and 50 per cent of the mortgage market respectively. Today the equivalent numbers are down to 50 and 40 percent and falling.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>My experience in the UK suggests to me that caution should be exercised before declaring the unpredictable outcomes of macroprudential measures prematurely. Britain's Mortgage Market Review (MMR), which had the stated goal of curbing irresponsible lending, radically changing mortgage rules with effect from April 2014 and for six months the housing market was gummed up by the paperwork and pen-pushing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yet as of today UK housing prices are once again rising at a reomping annualised pace of 9 per cent, with the popular markets of the south east tracking in double digit territory to record highs. Unlike the global real estate experts out there I don't pretend to know a great deal about the experiences related to macroprudential measures in New Zealand, but assume similar tales could be told, at least in Auckland. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It will be an interesting start to 2016, which I think will be a more unpredictable year than most, and not only in the housing market space.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
</div>
</div>
</div>
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2016 unpredictable for housing after APRA runs interference: Pete Wargent

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Listed residential real estate group, McGrath Estate Agents has opened their first Melbourne office in beachside St Kilda, as part of the group’s strategic move to establish a presence in Victoria.
The company intends opening a further three offices early in 2016.
The Melbourne franchise opening takes the current office count across the East Coast of Australia to 78.
"Entering the Victorian market has been a considered move by McGrath," its chief executive John McGrath said adding it was a natural progression.
The McGrath St Kilda team of 23 will be led by Josh Stirling and Michael Townsend in sales, and <a href="/expert-insights/investing/why-do-we-need-property-managers-shane-goldfarb">property manager Shane Goldfard</a> who have successfully operated in the area for the last six years as directors at Hodges St Kilda.
Josh Stirling says he began his love affair with real estate at the age of 18.
“Real estate is not just about property it is really about people, we don’t just sell houses we help change people’s lives, that’s why I love it”
Steve Feren is passionate about the St Kilda Football Club and suggest that the ultimate success is not too far away for his AFL team. 
The listed agency shares were trading at $1.84 this morning, the first day of its second week after is floating. 
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St Kilda office signals start of McGrath Estate Agents southern incursion

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There were 2,948 auctions held across the combined capital cities this week, with a preliminary auction clearance rate of 59.3%. 
Last week, a clearance rate of 57.3% was recorded across 3,252 capital city auctions, the lowest clearance rate since February 2013. At the same time last year, both auction volumes and the auction clearance rate were stronger, with a clearance rate of 65.5% across 3,511 residential auctions.
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Capital-city.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Capital-city.jpg" alt="" width="754" height="568">
 
Across Melbourne, 1,561 homes were taken to auction this week, compared to 1,622 last week, while the clearance rate strengthened slightly to 65.7%, up from 63.3% over the previous week. Looking back at last year, a clearance rate of 68.6 per cent was recorded across 1,585 auctions. Of the 9 individual Melbourne sub-regions, this week the strongest performer, in terms of clearance rate was the Inner South region. So far, CoreLogic RP Data has collected 193 results for the region and the preliminary result shows 72.5 per cent of these auctions were successful.
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Melbourne.jpg" alt="" width="849" height="569">
 
In Sydney, 869 auctions were held this week, down from 1,070 over the previous week. The preliminary clearance rate of 55.2 per cent is an improvement, compared to last week, when the final auction clearance rate for the city was 52.9 per cent, the lowest clearance rate Sydney has seen since December 2012. Despite the slight strengthening over the week, Sydney’s current clearance rate remains significantly lower than one year ago, when a clearance rate of 69.8 per cent was recorded across 1,357 auctions. Looking at the sub-regions of Sydney, the Inner West region recorded the strongest clearance rate of 74.6 per cent across 55 auctions, while the Inner South West region had the highest volume of auctions (126).
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="849" height="573">
Brisbane was host to 180 auctions this week and so far 126 results have been reported, with a preliminary success rate of 46 per cent. Last week, auction volumes across the city were higher with 203 auctions held and a clearance rate of 42.2 per cent. Unlike Brisbane, the number of homes taken to auction this week increased across the Gold Coast with 87 properties scheduled for auction this week, compared to 66 last week. Of the 52 results reported so far, 36.5 per cent were successful.
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Brisbane.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Brisbane.jpg" alt="" width="818" height="546">
 
Adelaide recorded a clearance rate of 51.6 per cent across 151 auctions this week, down from a stronger 60 per cent across 138 auctions last week. At the same time last year, 171 homes were taken to auction, with 55.7 per cent recording a successful result.
<a href="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Adelaide.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/14/20151214-Adelaide.jpg" alt="" width="799" height="542">
 
In Perth, 58 auctions took place this week, with 25 results reported so far. Perth’s preliminary clearance rate of 40 per cent across these reported results is higher than both last week’s result (36 per cent) and the clearance rate from one year ago (22.5 per cent).
Canberra’s preliminary auction clearance rate of 48.6 per cent this week is lower than last week, when the final auction clearance rate was 57.5 per cent, and also lower than the 56.9 per cent recorded last year.
There were 17 Tasmanian auctions held this week. So far 10 results have been reported with 2 sales.
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Preliminary clearance rate strengthens: CoreLogic RP Data's Shana Miller

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The past 12 months mark one of the state’s strongest residential property markets we have seen in recent years. 
More homes went to auction than ever before with multiple records falling, including the highest number of auctions held in a single day, weekend and year. High transaction volumes, low interest rates and buyer and vendor confidence all contributed to strong capital growth. As the year draws to a close, it is timely to review the market in 2015 and the outlook for Victoria in 2016.
TRANSACTIONS &amp; AUCTION VOLUMES 
Transaction volumes in Victoria have been at their highest in five years with around 116,000 sales in the year to November 30. This is a 5% increase on last year when there were 110,400 transactions. 
In the year to November 30, around 40,000 auctions have been held with almost 30,000 homes selling under the hammer. Just over 37,000 of those auctions were held in Melbourne, compared to 2,500 in regional Victoria where private sales are more popular. 
The key to the 2015 market has been auction levels, which have hit an all-time high in recent months. In the last weekend in November, multiple national auction records fell including most auctions in a single day with 1,648 auctions held  - 22 more than the previous record which was set in October last year. November 2015 was also a record month for auctions with 5,669 auctions held – 259 more auctions than the previous record month (November 2014).  
MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH
Significant house price growth has been recorded in metropolitan Melbourne throughout 2015 with the median surpassing the $700,000 barrier for the first time ever in the September quarter. Growth has been widespread across the city, with price increases recorded in all three regions – inner, middle and outer. 
Growth has been consistent during the year. In the first quarter of 2015, the median house price topped $671,000, up from $664,500 in December 2014. Suburbs in the city’s south east experienced the highest growth in the first three months of the year with Mount Waverley, Bentleigh and Beaumaris all up more than 16% on 2014 figures. 
Solid price growth continued in the June quarter with metropolitan Melbourne’s median house price almost reaching $700,000, at $698,000. Melbourne’s eastern suburbs recorded the highest median house price growth in the quarter with Templestowe, Glen Waverley and Balwyn North all rising by at least 17%. 
The September quarter saw the city’s median house price rise 4.5% to a record high $729,500. Bayside suburbs Brighton, Dromana and Seaford topped the highest growth suburbs in the third quarter of the year, up more than 17 per cent on June quarter figures. 
House prices have also increased in regional Victoria over the year with the median house price hitting $347,000 in the three months to September 30. This was up from $341,000 in the first quarter of 2015. 
MILLION DOLLAR SUBURBS
Buyer demand in traditional million dollar suburbs has pushed up the median house price in neighbouring areas. As a result of the ripple effect, more of these suburbs have joined the million-dollar club this year. There were 61 suburbs valued at $1 million or more in the March quarter, and this has since increased to 87 in the September quarter. Toorak remains Melbourne’s most expensive suburb with a median house price of almost $4 million. This is followed by Canterbury and Balwyn with median house prices of $2,430,500 and $2,281,000 respectively.
LOOKING AHEAD
While clearance rates moderated slightly in November, they have still been strong given the record auction levels – and continuing high auction numbers to late 2015 indicates a high level of vendor confidence.
The mix of population increases, a robust economy and relatively low interest rates is likely to also encourage buyer interest moving forward.  
Across Melbourne, the market is likely to remain steady, with solid growth in a range of areas across the city. This growth is likely to be strongest in Melbourne’s inner and middle suburbs, which have seen strong buyer interest in recent months. 
While this growth may not be as strong as what has been experienced this year – with up to five per cent increases per quarter – a city-wide population upturn and low interest rates both signal consistent buyer demand in the first quarter, and into the second quarter, of the new year. 
‎Enzo Raimondo is chief executive officer of <a href="https://www.reiv.com.au" target="_blank">The Real Estate Institute of Victoria</a>.
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Melbourne auction activity at all time high: REIV's Enzo Raimondo

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GUEST OBSERVER
You may have seen recent maps showing how sea level rise may effect coastlines worldwide, including Australian cities. These maps have been produced by US-based website Climate Central.
For instance the video shows what they forecast sea level rise would be like in Melbourne with 4℃ and 2℃ of warming. This is not necessarily sea level rise that will occur over the coming century, but the eventual sea level locked in under particular temperature scenarios. It could take under 200 years or up to 2,000 for sea levels to reach these levels.
The picture isn’t pretty.
Maps such as these have triggered heated debate and discussion in different places in Australia (for instance Eurobodalla and Batemans Bay in New South Wales ) as individuals and organisations wrestled with the implications for property values, policy, long term planning and future risk management of our coastlines.
So is it time to sell up?
Coasts are always changing
This mapping helps us realise that coastlines are not static like property boundaries. They are in fact incredibly dynamic and continue to adjust to changes in sea level. The ambulatory nature of coastlines is a point worth remembering.
It is incredibly important to emphasise that the geomorphological, geological, ecological (i.e. dunes or reefs), or built characteristics of your local coastal environment have a huge influence on how coastlines respond to changing sea levels.
In some places beaches are advancing due to an excess in sand supply, while in other places a lack of sand means a coastline can recede (such as Old Bar on the mid-north coast of New South Wales). Furthermore, coral islands in the Pacific are now known to be dynamic in how they change shape and form in response to rising seas.
The rate of sea level rise is important in this regard. The point is, these maps cannot be taken at face value because they mask locally relevant environmental processes that will impact how sea level rise is experienced at any one place.
How are communities adapting to sea level rise?
In countries like Australia local and regional governments are doing more robust local studies forecasting sea level rise and coastal change. Good examples are the projects Mapping and responding to coastal inundation - undertaken jointly by the Sydney Coastal Councils Group and the CSIRO; and Coastal Vulnerability to Multiple Inundation Sources (COVERMAR) - a partnership between the Sydney Coastal Councils Group and the University of Sydney. Such efforts are much more useful for responding to the threats of sea level rise.
Recently proposed changes to policy and legislation in NSW make explicit the need to consider climate change and the risks it poses to our way of life. The proposed Coastal Management Act goes further and makes explicit mention of the risks posed by extreme storm events (compounded by rising sea levels) to our built environment and life.
The need for local information
Broad-scale maps such as these provide a visceral link between a warmer and wetter world, which can provide the general public with a broad educational tool to help them visualise and grasp what sea level change might look like in their local area.
They are useful for initiating local conversations in communities about the possible locations of critical infrastructure (e.g. nuclear power stations at coastlines) that will have life spans running to hundreds of years or even longer.
But to actually plan for sea level rise we need good, local information. In NSW decisions about coastal management are made mostly by local government. These decisions come about after a detailed study of the local coastal processes and environment, and the values placed on the coastal environment (e.g. property, recreation, aesthetics etc.).
Using a risk-based approach to coastal management and planning will help ensure that new high value development (e.g. infrastructure, power stations etc.) is not placed in areas exposed to rising seas.
The problem is existing development in areas now known to be hazardous with the most comprehensive analyses being presented in the National Coastal Risk Assessment  published by the Commonwealth Department of the Environment. A risk-based planning process should seek to avoid repeating those mistakes, but also allow for continued use of those areas until such time as it is unsafe.
Evaluating and making decisions about those risks is incredibly difficult and fraught with complexity (coastal evolution is the result of multiple factors), ambiguity (whose values matter?) and uncertainty (what really will happen in 100 years?). Having said that, coastal planners all over Australia (and around the world for that matter) are grappling with these issues. But, we still have a very long way to go.
Filippo Dall'Osso is researcher at the Natural Hazards Research Group, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/filippo-dallosso-206055" target="_blank">here</a>.
Dale Dominey-Howes is associate professor in Natural Disaster Geography, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dale-dominey-howes-112724" target="_blank">here</a>.
Tom FitzGerald is PhD candidate in coastal hazard risk management, University of Sydney and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-fitzgerald-17927" target="_blank">here</a>.
All are authors for The Conversation.
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The oceans are coming for us: how should Australian communities plan for dire sea level forecasts?

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The REIV is expecting about 1,630 auctions in 374 Melbourne suburbs this week.
The top auction locations this weekend are Mount Waverley (26 auctions),  Reservoir (25 auctions),  and Richmond (25 auctions).
A number of areas have performed well this year in Melbourne’s east, REIV chief Enzo Raimondo said. About $500 million worth of properties has been sold at auction in each of the top three suburbs - Balwyn North, Kew and Camberwell.
For Sydney, Dr Andrew Wilson at APM said auction numbers will be low in Sydney this weekend as the local market winds down before the Christmas break.
Sydney will host a little more than 700 auctions on Saturday compared to last weekend’s 885, well below the 998 listed over the same weekend last year. 
December auction activity in Sydney will be well below last year’s record levels with 500 fewer homes set to go under the hammer over the month. 
Sydney’s south will host the most auctions this weekend with 105 followed by the inner west 101, the upper north shore 81, the city and east 73, the south-west 66, the northern beaches 63, the west 58, Canterbury Bankstown 54, the lower north 50, the north-west 36, the Central Coast 25 and the Blue Mountains with one auction scheduled this weekend.
Leichhardt, Yagoona and Cremorne are the most popular suburbs in Sydney this weekend for auctions, each with nine, followed by Auburn, St Ives and Dee Why, each with eight auctions scheduled.
 
For your free Property Observer eBook from RAMS, 12 tips for first-time buyers, covering everything you need to know when it comes to purchasing property, click here.
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Mt Waverley and Leichhardt head the auction weekend activity in Melbourne and Sydney

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The Australian Tax Office will be scrutinising property records for the last 32 years in its bid to track down illegal buyers.
In a notice about a data matching program estimated to include 11.3 million people, the ATO said it would acquire details of real property transactions from September 20, 1985 to June 30, 2017 from all states and territories.
The total number of records is estimated at about one million for each year from rental bond authorities and about 30 million for each year from revenue and land title offices, the notice in the latest government gazette said.
The purpose of this data matching program is to ensure that taxpayers are correctly meeting taxation and other program obligations administered by the ATO in relation to their dealings with real property, the notice said.
These obligations include registration, lodgment, reporting and payment responsibilities. 
The ATO's data-matching project comes just a week after the government's amnesty towards foreign investors, who had unlawfully purchased property, lapsed.
 
For your free Property Observer eBook from RAMS, 12 tips for first-time buyers, covering everything you need to know when it comes to purchasing property, click here.
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