Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

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Evidence that the Perth market has bottomed, after four tough years, is growing.
A market recovery is under way and one of the locations leading the revival is the City of Wanneroo in the north of the metro area.
Strong population growth is propelling the Wanneroo LGA away from its past as a remote, bushy area towards becoming a busy seaside city destined to house 363,000 residents. Over the past decade, 177,000 new residents have moved there, making it the fastest-growing LGA in Western Australia.
Its popularity with young families is evident too. Sales numbers have been rising and this earned Wanneroo a special mention in Hotspotting’s 2017 Winter Edition of the Price Predictor Index. At a time when few Perth suburbs have rising sales activity, several locations in the City of Wanneroo are showing signs of returning to growth.
Growing industrial areas are providing employment opportunities and with houses in most suburbs priced in the $300,000s and $400,000s, the City of Wanneroo is worthy of attention by investors.
Wanneroo is a rapidly-expanding LGA on the northern fringe of the Perth metropolitan area, located about 12km from the Perth CBD at its nearest point and 62km at its furthest point.
Perth’s next major Strategic Metropolitan Centre at Yanchep is currently being developed. Until the early 2000s, much of this area was unpopulated bushland.
The LGA’s main commercial and residential town centres are located at Wanneroo and Clarkson.
Other urban centres are planned at Alkimos, Yanchep and Two Rocks, with the largest retail centre being Wanneroo Cenral.
The Wanneroo region has natural attractions, mainly the beaches, but it is also home to the Yanchep and Neerabup National Park, Yellagonga Regional Park. and Lake Joondalup.
Barbagallo Raceway is a motorsport circuit located in Pinjar. It is renowned for the annual Supercar Championships which attract around 50,000 visitors over three days.
The City of Wanneroo has come to Hotspotting’s attention because of rising sales activity in several suburbs at a time when Perth’s market generally has been weak.
Wanneroo is one of four Perth precincts that are beginning to demonstrate a turnaround in the Perth housing market. Of the four, Wanneroo is the standout location, providing growth markets such as Alkimos, Carramar, Clarkson and Yanchep.
Alkimos is a newly-emerging suburb, having had a population of only 700 at the 2011 Census. The population is now 6,000. As with Yanchep, Butler and Two Rocks, new land estates are becoming available at Alkimos.
Based on 105 sales in the past year, the median house price at Alkimos is $400,000, with a median yield of 4.7%. Clarkson is the busiest suburb in the Wanneroo LGA with 227 annual sales. It has a median house price of $406,000 and a median rental yield of 4.5%.
Generally, young families dominate the region, searching for affordability amid the new development. Houses priced under $400,000 can be found in Banksia Grove, Girrawheen, Merriwa and Yanchep.
The State Government’s LandCorp and the Satterley Property Group are creating a new beach suburb between Yanchep and Alkimos. The 240ha community, to be known as Allara, has the potential to accommodate 3,400 home sites and a population of 7,500 people in the next 10 years.
Building projections obtained from the City of Wanneroo show that between 2011 and 2036, the suburb of Butler will have 2,800 dwellings added; Clarkson 2,400; Alkimos 11,000, Jindalee 3,200 and Yanchep 8,800.
Investors need to be mindful that vacancy rates are an issue, as is the case right across Perth. I expect this to improve as the WA economy and the Perth property market continue their fightback.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

City of Wanneroo, Perth, leading state's market recovery 

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GUEST OBSERVER
Across house sales over the past 12 months, Tasmania recorded the highest proportion of stock turning over with 5.6% of all houses in the state selling. Conversely, Western Australia saw the lowest proportion of turnover with just 4.0% of all houses selling over the past year. 
The current lower volume of housing stock turnover highlights why caution should be taken when interpreting median sale prices. 
With such a small fraction of housing actually transacting over a given period, median prices can be biased. Furthermore, median prices may not be reflective of the whole market. When making a comparison between periods they may compare two very different bundles of housing types and quality.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-24%20at%2011.17.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-24%20at%2011.17.14%20AM.png" alt="">
Concerned about housing stock levels, REINSW President John Cunningham said, “The results signal warning bells for the housing industry. It shows just how little has been transacted over the past year.”
“We know from a variety of property data sources that stock levels are steadily declining and a key reason why the affordability issue presents a bigger picture problem, particularly for Sydney and Melbourne.
“When we have stock on market, it keeps the property market competitive and in balance. Without stock we see less vibrancy and activity across the market and much more buyer competition taking place as opposed to activity between properties.” Ultimately, he said, “the knock-on effect damages the supply and demand chain.”
Lower housing turnover is being influenced by a variety of factors. “Advertised stock levels remain low across those cities where capital gain conditions are strong. Additionally, high transactional costs, which are based on a percentage of the selling/purchasing price, have become a larger disincentive across those markets where values have shown a material rise.”
Highlighted in the adjacent tables, it shows the five suburbs in each state which have seen the greatest turnover of houses over the past year. Only those suburbs that have at least 500 houses have been included on the list.
Zuccoli in Darwin had the highest proportion of stock turning-over across the country with 38.5% of all houses in the suburb selling over the past year. Clyde North in Melbourne had the second- highest level of turnover with 17.6% of all houses in the suburb selling over the past year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-24%20at%2011.18.58%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/24/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-24%20at%2011.18.58%20AM.png" alt="">
While the data shows the suburbs with the greatest turnover of houses, each of the suburbs listed have seen substantially less than half of all houses selling.
Another characteristic of note is that most of the suburbs shown are in areas where there is, or has been over recent years, a substantial injection of new housing stock; average hold period data which shows that in new housing estate areas housing stock tends to turnover with greater regularity.
Overall, housing turnover in any given year reflects only a small proportion of the total housing stock. It further highlights that taxes on transactions such as stamp duty are heavily reliant on collection from only a small pool of overall housing stock.  
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Housing turnover remains low despite strong selling conditions in Sydney & Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

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The Chinese government has put curbs on purchases of real estate and entertainment assets by Chinese companies and investors, a decision which could affect Australia’s real estate market.
The restrictions follows recent moves by Beijing to halt state banks lending to the Dalian Wanda Group, which has recently been forced to restructure its assets in Australia, namely the $2 billion worth of projects in Sydney and the Gold Coast.
The move to check “irrational" overseas investments aim to curb capital outflows and ease the  downward pressure on the yuan, while also compelling mainland companies to align themselves more closely with Beijing's foreign policy objectives, according to The Australian Financial Review.
The new investment guidelines includes a list of "banned, encouraged and restricted" areas for investment.
Hotels, sporting teams, cinemas and the broader entertainment sector were on the restricted list, while investments in casinos and defence technology were banned.
However, the new guidelines encourage deals in high technology, advanced manufacturing, agriculture, some areas of the service sector and oil and gas.
The State Council said it would encourage companies to invest in the $1 trillion One Belt One Road infrastructure initiative, meant to improve China’s trade ties with Europe, Africa, South East Asia and the Middle East.
In a statement, China’s top economic planning agency, The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), accused some Chinese companies of "blindly" going overseas.
"This has resulted in operational difficulties and caused significant losses," it said.
The agency was also critical of overseas property deals.
"Some companies have put their investment focus on fields that are not necessarily in the 'real economy', such as the property sector," it said.
"While these investments failed to drive economic growth, they led to increased capital outflows, which could negatively impact China's financial stability."
"This will lead to more rational investments ... after a period of crazy acquisitions at any cost,"  Zhang Yansheng, chief economist at the Beijing-based China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, was quoted as saying by the AFR.
"In the short term there will be fluctuation in China's investment in Australia, but I'm sure over the longer term there will be a steady increase."
Beijing has been worried that an acquisition spree by private entrepreneurs in recent years now threatens the stability of its financial system, if loans extended by from state-owned banks turn bad.
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

China's new restrictions on overseas investment may hurt Australia's property market

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There’s mounting activity in and around real estate in Hobart and, according to media, it’s a sudden explosion.
A Domain report says there’s an “unprecedented” surge in activity from international developers “who are now ditching the mainland in favour of Hobart”. 
It reports a big increase in hotels planned for the city’s tourism industry – and in developers actively seeking sites for residential development.
Chief executive of Knight Frank Tasmania, Scott Newton, reports big demand for Hobart development sites, which is also described as “unprecedented”.
“Hobart has generally lagged the national market but we’re certainly seeing change unfold and there’s been a catch-up take place,” he says. 
I’m not surprised at the interest in the Hobart market – and it’s not sudden and it’s certainly not unprecedented. Hobart and Tasmania have been making a strong case for attention from investors of all kinds for a couple of years now.
Hobart has become a serious national player in the overall residential property scene, with its appealing mix of the lowest prices, tightest vacancies and highest rental yields in capital city Australia, underpinned by a greatly improved state economy.
Both SQM Research and CoreLogic have published recent data showing that annual price growth is strongest in Melbourne, followed by Canberra, with Hobart now challenging the leaders.
CoreLogic has Sydney now ranked third on price growth with Hobart fourth, while SQM rates Hobart as third best on capital growth and Sydney fourth. 
Vacancy rates remain tight or moderate in all of the state and territory capital cities except Perth, but Hobart has maintained its status as the tightest rental market. 
Both Domain and SQM Research record vacancies below 2% in Hobart, Canberra, Melbourne and Adelaide. Both sources have Sydney hovering around 2%, with Brisbane and Darwin both around 3%.
“Available rental accommodation in Hobart and Canberra remains scarce, with the lowest house vacancy rates of all the capitals at just 0.5% and 0.8% respectively,” says Domain chief economist Andrew Wilson. 
Here’s the key thing: none of this should surprise anyone who’s been paying attention. The rise of the Hobart market to national prominence has been entirely predictable and has been unfolding steadily throughout 2016 and 2017.
Here’s what I wrote on Property Observer 18 months ago, in February 2016: “For six months or more, I’ve been getting blank stares or responses like “Seriously?” whenever I suggest to investors they should be considering Hobart.
“It’s really easy to get a bad reputation and extremely hard to lose it. Tasmania has the image of a basket base economy. A state that’s losing population. A property market bereft of growth. 
“For many years, all of that has been true. It’s true no longer.  But most people won’t be convinced until they read there’s a boom on. And by then it will be too late to buy well.
“Perhaps it is already. According to the latest House Price Report from Domain, Hobart median prices rose 8.7% for houses and 7.1% for apartments in 2015. The apartment result is the second best among the capital cities, after Sydney.” 
That was February last year. Eighteen months later it’s certainly too late to get the best of the buying, with some research showing that the nation’s hottest suburbs, in terms of “Time On Market”, are all in Hobart. 
This is confirmed by reports from industry professionals at the coalface, who report that houses are selling as fast as they’re listed. 
There were two core factors that prompted that prediction about Hobart prices at the beginning of last year: the steady rise in sales activity and the improvement in the state economy.
At that time, numerous reports were recording the improvement in the Tasmanian economy including the NAB business survey, a Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook report and CommSec’s State of the States report.
But the bigger pointer for me was the research Hotspotting goes on sales volumes. Changes in sales activity are always a precursor to price movements, both up and down. Hotspotting analyses sales volumes patterns for every town and suburb in Australia every quarter – and that process forecast the price rises that are now occurring in the Hobart market.
In February 2016 I wrote:  “Cheap real estate, a market with rising momentum, underpinned by a strongly moving economy - it’s a package worth considering.’
Those who followed that advice would have bought well ahead of the price rises and done well – and will do better, because there’s more to come.
Buyers can still get into the Hobart market and achieve capital growth, but the best time to be there was 18 months ago.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting">Twitter.</a>
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Hobart has become a serious national player in the residential property scene

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Sydney's pricey suburb Woollahra secured the nation's top weekend auction result, while Toorak in Melbourne surprised with the cheapest.
There were just the two ultra-cautious bidders completing for the wide Wallis Street, Woollahra terrace.
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-woollahra-126002126" target="_blank">The five bedroom, four bathroom home</a> (above) with 7.5 metre frontage had been tipped by Ben Collier at The Agency to fetch $6.3 million plus, but the bidding petered out at $6.35 million.
It was however sold within an hour of its onsite auction at an considerably higher, though undisclosed price.
Dr Lisa O’Brien, who leads Australia’s major education-oriented children’s charity, The Smith Family, and was also a founding member of Sydney’s Lou’s Place, a drop-in centre providing respite and support for women in need, was the downsizing vendor.
It last sold at $4,225,000 in 2014.
Auction volumes steadied across the capital cities, according to CoreLogic’s latest report, while the preliminary clearance rate improved in the second last winter weekend.
Across the combined capital cities, the preliminary auction clearance rate rose to 71.7 per cent, up from the final clearance rate that came in at 67.5 per cent.
There were 2,041 capital city auctions over the week to Saturday, virtually unchanged from last week’s 2,040 auctions.
But it was higher than the 1,795 auctions held one year ago.
Melbourne took back the baton from Canberra as the strongest weekend auction market.
Melbourne’s preliminary clearance rate sat at 77.7 per cent, after the prior weekend’s final results fell below 70 per cent for the first time since July last year to 69.8 per cent.
Melbourne was host to 997 auctions this week, higher than the 955 held last week, and higher than last year when there were 789 Melbourne auctions held over the week.
It had the nation's cheapest sale when a Toorak studio sold pre-auction for $250,000.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-vic-toorak-126010958" target="_blank">47/145 Canterbury Road</a>, (below) the studio apartment was marketed as an entry-level property for the suburb who has a $925,000 median apartment price.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2010.02.30%20AM.png" alt="">
The weekend offering - which last sold at $113,000 in 1999 - features a galley kitchen that is adjacent to the living and dining space.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2011.52.42%20AM.png" alt="">
The 36 sqm studio with car space was offered through Little Real Estate agent Rob Exell.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2011.53.34%20AM.png" alt="">
It had been a $260 a week rental when offered this time last year.
A four bedroom Kew house was Melbourne's top sale at $4 million.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-kew-126011582" target="_blank">37 Wellington Street</a>, (below) the English style home on a 792 sqm block last sold in 2007 for $2.12 million.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2010.03.28%20AM.png" alt="">
In Canberra, 68 auctions were held with 75.4 per cent successful.
Last weekend the Canberra clearance rate was a higher 87 per cent.
Canberra's top sale was a four bedroom Hackett house sold for $1.06 million.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-act-hackett-126031154" target="_blank">4 Brennan Street</a>, (below) the 958 sqm property with views of Mount Majura and Mount Ainslie, last sold for $405,000 in 2002.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2010.04.28%20AM.png" alt="">
Sydney’s clearance rate improved jumping to 70.8 per cent, however volumes were lower week-on-week in Sydney.
Across Sydney, 704 properties were taken to auction this week. Last week, the final clearance rate for the city was 67.6 per cent, across 798 auctions.
Over the corresponding week last year, 687 Sydney homes were taken to auction and the clearance rate was 84.3 per cent.
The cheapest sale in Sydney was a Lakemba unit sold for $415,000.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-nsw-lakemba-125900754" target="_blank">10/10 Fairmount Street</a>, (below) the two bedroom 1970s last sold for $315,000 in 2014.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2010.05.34%20AM.png" alt="">
The freshly painted property was offered through Ray White agent Kamal Ali.
Sydney secured the highest formally notified sale across the nation when a Chatswood house sold for $5.635 million.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-chatswood-125954126" target="_blank">17 Dulwich Road</a>, (below) the six bedroom home sat on a 1800 sqm block.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2010.06.27%20AM.png" alt="">
There were 100 Adelaide auctions this weekend with 58.7 per cent selling. Last year there was a 62 per cent clearance rate from 97 offerings across Adelaide.
Adelaide's prices ranged between a three bedroom <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-sa-osborne-125999526" target="_blank">Osborne</a> house sold for $389,500 and $1.15 million for a four bedroom Henley Beach South house at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-sa-henley+beach+south-125985282" target="_blank">9 Catalina Street</a> (below).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2010.07.31%20AM.png" alt="">
Brisbane’s preliminary auction clearance rate was 45.9 per cent, increasing from 43.8 per cent last week.
There were 131 Brisbane auctions this week, compared to 103 last week.
Farleigh, a five bedroom Annerley house sold for $1.21 million making it Brisbane’s most expensive weekend auction sale.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-annerley-125998610" target="_blank">11 Pitt Street</a>, (below) the 1914 home was built by the pioneering Mackenzie family.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-21%20at%2010.08.17%20AM.png" alt="">
It last sold in 2005 for $565,000.
There were 34 Perth auctions this week and so far 17 results have been reported, with 47.1 per cent selling.
Of the seven Tasmanian auction results reported so far this week, two sales have been recorded.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney's pricey suburb Woollahra secured the nation's top weekend auction result

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A curious feature of residential real estate is the way we keep building bigger and more costly dwellings, in defiance of trends with household sizes and concerns about affordability.
ABS data shows that the market-share of dwellings containing four bedrooms or more increased by 1.9 percentage points between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses, while three-bedroom dwellings fell by 2.4 percentage points.
Homes with four or more bedrooms represent 32% of total dwellings, up from 30% in 2011. Those with three bedrooms or fewer still predominate, but have fallen from 68% to 66% of the total.
Some three-bedroom houses are disappearing as older places are knocked down and replaced with new high-rise developments.
Yet the typical Australian family - a couple with two kids - remains largely unchanged, while the number of lone-person households has increased from 22.9% of the total in 2001 to 24.4% in 2016.
These numbers hardly suggest a need for an increase of the number of big homes with additional bedrooms. But there are other possible explanations for the rise in the number of four- and five-bedroom dwellings.
Blended families, where children from previous marriages live with step-siblings from a newer relationship, are becoming more common. A spare bedroom may be reserved for visits by step-siblings or children in a custody arrangement.
Another reason is more people are working from home, necessitating a home office. About 1.3 million people say they work from home to enjoy a better work–life balance. 
Inter-generational households are common with immigrants, who provide the bulk of Australia’s population growth, especially in Melbourne and Sydney.
Indian and Asian immigrants in particular may have three generations living in one household: grandparents, parents and kids – and the Census shows that, increasingly, migrants to Australia are coming from these sources.
One of the Census findings was that the number of single-family households has decreased from 75% in 1991 to 69% in 2016 – while group households have increased from 3.7% of households in 2011 to 4.3% in 2016. We may see more of this trend if our migrant patterns remain the same.
Louise Lucas of The Property Education Co. suggests all may not be as it seems with four-bedroom houses.  The “McMansions” that are being produced by developers are not necessarily larger, but they are promoted as having four bedrooms although the fourth bedroom is likely to be much smaller than the others and only be useful as a study, she says.
But, one way or the other, the trend towards larger homes for a multitude of reasons is continuing.
Brisbane analyst Michael Matusik suggests we need to rethink the style of the stand-alone houses we’re producing and make allowances for more than one generation, including elements such as home offices, flexible spaces, smarter storage and energy efficiency.  
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Bigger, more costly homes defy trends with household sizes, affordability

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Australian Supercars driver Rick Kelly secured the $3.7 million weekend sale of his beachfront home at Carrum overlooking Port Phillip Bay.
The sale (below) came soon after the two-storey Nepean Highway house had been passed in at $3.4 million at its Ray White auction.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/07/700_kelly.jpg" alt="" width="552" height="335">
<div class="x_w_ad x_w_unruly">The resort-style property, that features three bedrooms, sold to a local mature-age couple.</div>
<div class="x_w_ad x_w_unruly">
The nation's top sale came elsewhere in Melbourne when the Armadale home of the former Qantas chairwoman Margaret Jackson was sold for $5.84 million (lead image).
<a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-vic-armadale-125913590" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The four-bedroom house</a> saw two bidders compete for the property owned by downsizes, Ms Jackson and her husband, Roger Donazzan.
The Marshall White auctioneer Justin Long opened with a vendor bid of $4.8 million, then declaring it on the market at $5.42 million.
Last traded in 2004 at $2.75 million, it was offered with price hopes of $4.9 million to $5.39 million.
Melbourne's inner east was the only Melbourne region to register a clearance rate below 70 per cent, according to Domain.
The northern suburbs region scored a 91.7 per cent clearance rate on Saturday.
The first weekend of August saw fewer auctions across the capital cities, according to the CoreLogic property data firm which calculated the national clearance rose to 71.5 per cent.
</div>
The capital cities had 1,846 auctions, down from the 1,987 auctions held over the prior week, but still up on a year ago when there were the 1,540 auctions.
The preliminary auction clearance compared with the prior weekend's preliminary clearance of 70.7 percent success rate.
But this was revised to 68.7 per cent after late results, according to Kevin Brogan, the CoreLogic auction analyst.
"Final results have been consistently in the high 60 per cent range since the first week of June," he noted.
Across the two larger auction markets, Melbourne continued to show resilience.
Melbourne's 75.7 per cent result came from 799 reported auctions.
There were 907 auctions held across the city, down from 956 last week when the final auction clearance rate was 75.6 per cent.
The volume was higher than the 724 auctions held one year ago, along with a lower clearance rate of 74.2 per cent last August.
An Albert Park house sold for $5 million.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-albert+park-125864530" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">24 Herbert Street</a>, (below) the home came with three bedrooms plus study, along with two bathrooms.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-07%20at%2011.37.39%20AM.png" alt="">
The home was set behind a striking, original Art Deco facade, of the former Morris Bros Union Dairy on the 327 sqm block.
The property, offered through David Wood at Hockingstuart, had a $4.6 million reserve.
It was a family that eventually came out on top, paying $400,000 above reserve set by the vendor who renovated after the property was bought for $626,400 in 1999.
Melbourne's St Kilda East has the nation's cheapest sale when a one bedroom apartment sold for $307,000.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-vic-st+kilda+east-124621614" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">22/87 Alma Road</a> (below) the property was marketed as perfect for first home buyers.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-07%20at%2011.38.48%20AM.png" alt="">
Built in 1960 it was last sold in 2010 for the same price of $307,000.
Across Sydney, 615 homes were taken to auction with a preliminary clearance rate of 71.1 per cent across 477 reported results.
Last week, the final clearance rate for the city was 65.4 per cent, across 714 auctions.
One year ago, 544 Sydney homes were taken to auction and the clearance rate was 77.5 per cent.
The City and Inner South had a success rate of 84.9 per cent and the Inner West at 82.1 per cent.
Sydney's top sale was <a href="https://www.maxwalls.com/buying/search/detail?id=ID223" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a three bedroom Mosman apartment</a> (below) that sold for $4.7 million.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-07%20at%2011.40.11%20AM.png" alt="">
Located at 20B Redan Street, the Balmoral Slopes offering last sold in 1995 for $1.025 million.
The duplex was offered through Max Walls International agent Anthony Walls.
Domain reported over the first seven months of this year, 19,221 Sydney homes had been auctioned - some 31 per cent higher or 4628 more than the 14,593 listed over the same period last year.
There were 153 Brisbane homes taken to auction this weekend, with the preliminary clearance rate at 48.8 per cent, down from 49.6 per cent last week.
Brisbane's Fig Tree Pocket saw <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-fig+tree+pocket-125861762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rivergum Retreat</a> (below), a mansion, owned by former Linc Energy boss Peter Bond, fail to sell at auction.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-07%20at%2011.42.06%20AM.png" alt="">
<div class="x_in-content-ad">The riverfront seven-bedroom, nine-bathroom mansion on 1.2 hectares was passed in at $9.25 million, $250,000 short of its 2008 purchase price.</div>
<div class="x_in-content-ad"> </div>
<div class="x_in-content-ad">Ray White agent Matt Lancashire marketed it as “one of the most substantial properties in Brisbane."</div>
Bidding between two parties started at $8 million. 
Brisbane's top sale was a five bedroom house at Calamvale for $3.3 million.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-calamvale-125905222" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">85 Menser Street</a> (below), the 10,119 sqm property was marketed as having development potential.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-07%20at%2011.43.08%20AM.png" alt="">
The property was last sold in 2016 for $3.08 million has approval for 38 town houses.
Adelaide recorded a clearance rate of 69.4 per cent across 59 auctions on the weekend, up from 64 per cent across 82 auctions on the prior weekend.
A 1910 stone-fronted Prospect house was among Adelaide's results, selling for $955,000.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-sa-prospect-125906674" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">46 Johns Road</a>, (below) the four bedroom 1910 property last sold in 1994 for $165,000.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-07%20at%2011.44.01%20AM.png" alt="">
Perth’s clearance rate surprised with a 72.7 per cent across 35 auctions.
It was up from the previous week, when 28 auctions were held and a clearance rate of 34.8 per cent was recorded.
Canberra’s preliminary auction clearance rate of 69.6 per cent was lower than last weekend, when the final auction clearance rate was 70.5 per cent and lower than the 74.1 per cent recorded on the same weekend last year.
A five bedroom Hackett house sold for $1.26 million making it Canberra’s most expensive weekend auction sale.
Located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-act-hackett-125919762" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">4 Verco Street</a>, (below) the property is set on the foothills of Mount Majura nature reserve.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/07/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-07%20at%2011.44.47%20AM.png" alt="">
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Australia's top weekend sale in Armadale, Melbourne

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GUEST OBSERVER
At its core, successful investing is simple, but we have a knack of making it look complex.
These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing: the power of compound interest; the investment cycle; the roller coaster of investor emotion; the wall of worry; and time is on your side when investing. 
Introduction 
Investing is often seen as complicated. And this has been made worse over the years by the increasing complexity in terms of investment products and choices, regulations and rules around investing, the role of the information revolution and social media in amplifying the noise around investment markets and the expanding ways available to access various investments. But at its core, the basic principles of successful investing are simple. And one way to demonstrate that is in charts or pictures – after all, a picture tells a thousand words. So this note looks at five charts I find useful in understanding investing. I’ll put out part 2 – another five great charts on investing – in a few weeks’ time. 
Chart #1 The power of compound interest. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.11.02%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.11.02%20AM.png" alt="">
This chart is my absolute favourite. My good friend, the well- known economist Dr Don Stammer, has said there are six things we owe our children or grandchildren: a sense of humour; a reasonable education; an early understanding of the magic of compounding; an awareness the cycle lives on; some help when they buy their first house or apartment; and a feeling of optimism. I can’t argue with the first, second and fifth, the fourth I will deal with next, and a feeling of optimism is essential if you wish to succeed as an investor. But on compound interest – he’s right it is like magic! 
The chart shows the value of $1 invested in various Australian assets in 1900 allowing for the reinvestment of dividends and interest along the way. That $1 would have grown to $231 if invested in cash, to $850 if invested in bonds and to $485,815 if invested in shares. While the average return since 1900 is only double that in shares relative to bonds, the huge difference between the two at the end owes to the impact of compounding or earning returns on top of returns. So any interest or return earned in one period is added to the original investment so that it all earns a return in the next period. And so on. 
The “Law of 72” is a useful tool to understanding how long it takes an investment to double in value using compounding. Just divide the rate of return into 72 and that’s the answer (roughly). For example, if the rate of return is 2% per annum (eg, the interest rate on a bank term deposit), it will take 36 years to double in value (= 72 divided by 2). But if it’s, say, 8% pa (eg, the expected total return from shares including dividends), then it will take just 9 years (= 72 divided by 8). 
Key message: if we want to grow our wealth, we must have exposure to growth assets like shares and property. 
Chart #2 The cycle 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.12.24%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.12.24%20AM.png" alt="">
But of course shares can have lots of setbacks along the way as is particularly evident during the periods highlighted by the arrows on the share market line. In fact, the higher returns shares generate over time relative to cash and bonds is compensation for the periodic setbacks that they suffer from. But understanding those periodic setbacks – that there will always be a cycle – is important in not getting blown away from the higher returns that shares and other growth assets provide over time. The next chart shows a stylised version of the investment cycle. 
The investment cycle 
The grey line shows the economic cycle from “boom” to “bust” to “boom” again. Prior to the low point in the economic cycle, shares invariably find a bottom thanks to attractive valuations and easy monetary policy and as smart investors look forward to an eventual economic recovery. This phase is usually characterised by scepticism as economic conditions are yet to improve.
Shares then move higher, eventually supported by stronger earnings on the back of improving economic conditions, which eventually gives way to a blow off phase or euphoria as investors pile in. This is ultimately brought to an end as rising inflation flowing from strong economic conditions results in ever-tightening monetary policy, which combines with smart investors anticipating an economic downturn and results in shares coming under pressure.
Usually around the top of the cycle real assets – like property and infrastructure – are a better bet than shares as they benefit from strong real economic conditions. But once the downturn hits bonds are the place to be as slowing growth eventually gives way to falling inflation all of which sees bond yields decline producing capital gains for investors. At some point, of course, easing monetary conditions and attractive valuations see shares bottom out and the whole cycle repeats. 
Key message: cycles are a fact of life and while they don't repeat precisely, it’s invariably the case that the share market leads the economic cycle (bottoming out before economic 2recovery is clear and topping out before an economic downturn has really hit) and that different assets perform relatively best at different phases in the cycle  
Chart #3 The roller coaster of investor emotion 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.13.22%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.13.22%20AM.png" alt="">
The swings we see in investment markets are far greater than can be justified by movements in investment fundamentals alone – ie profits, dividends, rents, interest rates, etc. In fact, investor emotion plays a huge part. The next chart shows the 4 roller coaster that investor emotion traces through the course of an investment cycle. A bull market runs through optimism, excitement, thrill and ultimately euphoria by which point the asset class is over loved (and usually overvalued too) – everyone who is going to buy has – and it becomes vulnerable to bad news. This is the point of maximum risk.
Once the cycle starts to turn down in a bear market, euphoria gives way to anxiety, denial, fear, capitulation and ultimately depression at which point the asset class is under loved (and usually undervalued) – everyone who is going to sell has – and it becomes vulnerable to good (or less bad) news. This is the point of maximum opportunity. Once the cycle turns up again, depression gives way to hope, relief and optimism before eventually moving on to euphoria again 
Key message: investor emotion plays a huge roll in exaggerating the investment cycle. The key for investors is not to get sucked into this emotional roller coaster: avoid assets where the crowd is euphoric and convinced it’s a sure thing and the asset is over loved, and favour assets where the crowd is depressed and the asset is under loved.
Chart #4 The wall of worry
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.14.29%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.14.29%20AM.png" alt="">
It seems that these days there is always something for investors to worry about. This year so far has been no exception with numerous worries about President Trump on multiple fronts (will he overstimulate the US economy? will he cause trade wars? will he deliver on his pro-business policies? will he be impeached? etc), various terrorist attacks, elections in the Netherlands and France and worries about Italy, the surprise election result in the UK, tensions between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, a new plunge in the oil price, intensifying “provocations” from North Korea, ongoing worries about the Australian property market and banks, etc. But most of this stuff is just noise.
The global economy has had plenty of worries over the last century, but it got over them with Australian shares returning 11.8% per annum since 1900, with a broad rising trend in the All Ords price index as can be seen in the next chart, and US shares returning 9.8% pa. (Note that this chart shows the All Ords share price index whereas the first chart shows the value of $1 invested in the All Ords accumulation index, which allows for changes in share prices and dividends.) 
Key message: worries are normal around the economy and investment markets but most of them are just noise.
Chart #5 Time is on your side
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.15.25%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/01/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-01%20at%2011.15.25%20AM.png" alt="">
Investment markets bounce all over the place in the short term. As can be seen in the next chart even annual returns in the share market are highly volatile, but longer-term returns tend to be solid and relatively smooth. Since 1900 for Australian shares roughly two years out of ten have had negative returns but there are no negative returns over rolling 20-year periods. (It’s roughly three years out of ten for US shares since 1900.) 
Key message: the longer the time horizon, the greater the chance your investments will meet their goals. So in investing, time is on your side. 
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<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds. 
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Five great charts on investing: Shane Oliver

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Undergraduate students from leading universities in Australia and New Zealand will have the opportunity to participate in a real estate case competition hosted by the University of Sydney Business School and sponsored by global property company, Savills Australia.
The University of Sydney Business School Real Estate Case Competition is based upon a real-world Australian real estate case, giving students the opportunity to put their knowledge into first-hand practice.
The university chooses the assignment by selecting a property asset in Sydney and tasks the teams with analysing an actual commercial real estate transaction, rendering a recommendation, and providing a presentation of their analysis and proposal.
The teams will consist of four to six students and will be judged through their presentations, analysis, approach to problems and knowledge of the given case by senior representatives from the property industry.
The winning team will receive guaranteed entry and an all-expenses paid trip (up to $25,000), to compete in the global invite only ‘Cornell International Real Estate Case Competition’ where teams are judged by leading experts in Real Estate.
According to Paul Craig, CEO of Savills Australia and New Zealand, who will be part of the judging panel, “This is an incredible opportunity for a high calibre of students to compete for an exciting grand prize and trip to New York.”
“But more importantly, it is a real life working example of what these students are going to be doing in their property careers.
"This practical application and hands on experience will help shape the next generation of property experts in Australia and New Zealand” he said.
“The mentoring the students will receive through the judging process will be invaluable to their future careers.”
The University of Sydney Business School Real Estate case competition will take place on Monday 25 September 2017 at The Abercrombie Building at the University of Sydney Business School in Sydney.
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Students battle it out in real-world property competition

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GUEST OBSERVER
In an Australian first, innovative research from the University of South Australia reveals that strength in numbers could hold the key for people wanting to enter Australia’s property market, with crowdfunding leading the way as an alternative option for new investors.
The groundbreaking study assesses individual investor motivation and appetite for crowdfunding and its potential as an alternative investment vehicle for entering Australia’s tenuous property market.
There’s a lot of debate about the current state of Australia’s housing market, and its inaccessibility, especially first-time homebuyers, who lack foundation capital get their first home.
As crowdfunding works by pooling capital from a large group of people to purchase a property, both the dollar investment and the risk, are spread across multiple players, with people able to make investments as small as $1,000.
This means people of all means and ages can try their hand at property investment, with their return being directly proportionate to their level of investment.
The research conducted by UniSA shows that property crowdfunding is a long-term investment strategy offering low to medium risks, and yielding similar low to medium returns. It attracts a mix of investor types, but has particular appeal to older Australians aged between 55 and 64 years (33 per cent of investors, representing the largest cohort). Only 4 per cent of the respondents were younger than 35 years.
There’s definitely an appetite among older investors for property crowdfunding, but we also know that millennials are using this type of investment vehicle to enter the property market.
While there are fewer millennials using crowdfunding for property investment, those that do, tend to invest greater funds than their older counterparts.
In contrast, older investors make up a greater percentage of the property crowdfunding market, but they tend to diversify their investment portfolios, preferring to hold higher percentages of their portfolios in cash and cash equivalent investment vehicles.
Property crowdfunding forms part of the online alternative finance market which has shown exponential growth over the past few years. According to the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance the Asia-Pacific Region alone (excluding mainland China) has shown a 313 per cent  increase to a volume of USD $1.2 billion in 2015 from USD $271.94 raised in 2014. 
Australia is second only to Japan as a participant in the Asia-Pacific alternative finance market.
This strong regional growth is a good indicator that we could expect similar growth patterns in property crowdfunding as alternative investment vehicle in the near future.
Property crowdfunding is still in its infancy in Australia, but as more people become aware and accepting of new digitalised investment platforms, we’re likely to see this market expand.
It is an investment strategy that has the potential to revolutionise the property market.
The results of this research are published in the Property Crowdfunding Australian Investor Perspectives 2016/17 report, developed in partnership with Domacom, one of the largest property crowdfunding platforms in Australia.
 
Dr Braam Lowies is a Senior Lecturer in Property, School of Commerce, University of South Australia and can be contacted <a href="https://www.unisa.edu.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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