Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Property market

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EXPERT OBSERVATION 
Australian capital city dwelling prices rose 2% in November according to CoreLogic. This was their strongest monthly increase since September 2003.
After a 10.2% decline over 21 months, average prices have now had their fifth rise in a row. Capital city dwelling prices are now up 0.4% from a year ago.
Sydney dwelling prices surged 2.7% and Melbourne prices rose another 2.2%. This is the sixth gain in a row for both cities. 
As a result Sydney prices have now risen 8.2% from their May low and have recovered 46.5% of the fall since their 2017 high. 
Melbourne prices have now risen 8.3% from their May low and have now recovered 66.6% of the fall since their 2017 high.
Just as house prices fell faster than unit prices on the way down they are now rising faster.
Price gains are continuing to gather pace and are broadening out from Sydney and Melbourne with Brisbane up 0.8%, Adelaide up 0.5%, Canberra up 1.6%, Hobart up 2.3% and even Perth up 0.4% (where prices had a 21.6% from their 2014 high). Darwin prices fell 1.2%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/price%201.png" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/2/price%201.png" alt=""> 
Source: CoreLogic, AMP Capital
The Australian property market – particularly Melbourne and Sydney – has gone from boom and FOMO in 2017 to slump and FONGO last year and now looks like its heading back to boom again with FOMO returning! (FOMO = fear of missing out, FONGO = fear of not getting out.)
The boost from the election result, RBA rate cuts and the relaxation of the 7% mortgage rate serviceability test are continuing to drive a surge in home prices as demand that was pent up over the period of falling prices between September 2017 and June this year has been unleashed. 
The rebound in demand continues to be evident in strong auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne. See the next two charts.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/price%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/2/price%202.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/price%203.png" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12.16px;">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/2/price%203.png" alt=""> 
Source: Domain, CoreLogic, AMP Capital
While this initially came on very low volumes, listings have now picked up following the normal pattern that sees clearances lead volumes. 
As a result sales at auctions are now running 70 to 80% up on year ago levels.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/2/price%204.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/2/price%204.png" alt="">
Source: Domain, AMP Capital 
The high level of auction clearance rates points to a continuing rebound in home prices in Sydney and Melbourne into early 2020. Based on past relationships the current level of clearances points to annual house price growth of 10 to 15% over the next six to 12 months. In fact over the last four months annualised price growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been running at 23%.
Our base case remains that after an initial bounce house price gains will be more constrained than what we saw through the 2012-17 property price boom.
Compared to past recovery cycles household debt to income ratios are much higher, bank lending standards are much tighter, there are still more units to hit the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and unemployment is likely to drift up as overall economic growth remains weak. This should see property price gains slow to a more moderate pace of say around 5% per annum once the initial rebound runs its course.
However, this looks unlikely to occur until around April-June next year by which time property prices will have surpassed their 2017 highs in Melbourne and Sydney (by around February and May respectively on our estimates).
For 2020 as a whole average capital city property prices are expected to rise by around 10%, with continuing strong gains in the first quarter giving way to a more constrained pace from around April-June. 
However, the rapid rebound in Sydney and Melbourne property prices since mid-year poses the risk that we will see much stronger gains for longer as price gains feed on themselves attracting more buyers back into the market who fear that they will miss out. 
The extent of the rebound in the last few months also highlights ongoing issues around the undersupply of housing relative to strong population driven demand.
There are three key things to watch going forward:
<ul type="disc">
<li>First, if auction clearances remain elevated as listings continue to pick up into next year then it will be a “positive” sign that the pick-up in the property market has more to go. So far this has been happening.</li>
<li>Second, housing finance commitments – recent months have shown an upswing and this will need to pick up a lot further for rapid price gains in Sydney and Melbourne to be sustained. Total credit is less relevant as it reflects both the flow of new lending and the flow of repayments, with the latter having been strong in recent times as existing borrowers focus on paying down debt in the face of economic uncertainty.</li>
<li>Finally, unemployment will be critical. If it picks up significantly in response to slow economic growth then it will be a big constraint on house prices and could result in forced property sales and another leg down in property prices. A sharp rise in unemployment is not our base case but is the key downside risk in terms of the property outlook. But we do see weak economic growth and an upwards drift in unemployment ultimately constraining property prices gains.  </li>
</ul>
A big issue remains whether the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets will present a problem for the RBA in terms of further easing whether by rate cuts, quantitative easing or both. This will no doubt cause some consternation at the Bank. But as we saw over the 2012-17 period the RBA will do what it believes is right for the “average” of Australia as opposed to a couple of cities.  
However, it may have to return to tighter regulatory controls again if housing credit growth starts to get out of hand again.
In other words, we don’t see the rebound in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets as a barrier to further monetary easing, but if it continues to gather pace leading to a rebound in credit growth to levels that causes the RBA to worry about financial stability then expect a new tightening of the screws from bank regulators.
With housing credit currently benign at 3% year on year any such tightening looks at least six months away.
Shane Oliver is Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital.
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Australian capital city home prices up 2% in November: Shane Oliver 

<html><body>
Things are hotting up in the Red Centre, but sadly that is true only for the weather and the real estate market in Alice Springs remains decidedly cool, according to a recent Herron Todd White (HTW) residential report. 
The report notes sales numbers continue to show a downward trend and there has been minimal change in median prices for both units and houses.
Demand continues to be somewhat soft and the tightening of bank lending policies in the wake of the Royal Commission has further impacted on a market that is lacking impetus.
"Houses at the lower end of the market ($350,000 to $400,000) continue to move quickly if reasonably priced, with some bargains out there for those not scared of a bit of hard work, but the lack of capital gain in the market place is proving to be a deterrent to flippers," the valuation firm said. 
A recent sale was a four bedroom house in Araluen. 
The home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nt-araluen-128025878" target="_blank">39 Kempeana Crescent </a>(pictured below) comprises four bedrooms, two tiled living areas, open plan kitchen and back veranda. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/araluen.jpg" alt="">
Older two-bedroom units continue to slide in value, due in part to the recent abundance of new or near new units coming on line in recent years.
A two bedroom room unit at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-unit-nt-gillen-131546194" target="_blank">25/111 Bloomfield Street, Gillen</a> (pictured below) has been sold for $225,500.
The unit comprises two upstairs bedrooms, open plan living area, and undercover parking.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/2/gillen.jpg" alt="">
This oversupply has seen a number of unit developments stall or be deferred in the absence of sufficient pre-sales.
Locals can expect to see cranes in the skyline in the future however as the tender for construction of a five-level, 70-unit accommodation complex for hospital staff has been awarded.
Construction is believed to be commencing in the first half of 2020.
During construction, the project is expected to provide 240 jobs, which will provide a boost to the local economy, at least in the short term.
Tourism operators have experienced a bumper season, purportedly on the back of a rush of visitors wanting to climb the rock before the Uluru climb was permanently closed in late October.
"The area has gained both positive and negative coverage from the media during this time but in the absence of any catalyst for migration to the area, the population base is expected to remain largely stagnant," the valuation firm said. 
"In the coming months, there seems little to get excited about as far as an upturn in the real estate market is concerned and the market is expected to continue to bounce along at (or near) the bottom in the foreseeable future."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Alice Springs property sales numbers on a downward trend: HTW residential 

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The recent trend across the regional markets of Australia has seen a clear improvement in the performance of housing across the major centres adjacent to Sydney and Melbourne, as well as rising values in many of the coastal lifestyle markets, according to the latest CoreLogic home value index for October.
Conversely, the report found drought-affected areas have seen a drop in demand for housing with values falling sharply across many of the rural sub-regions associated with crops and grazing.
Mr Lawless said focusing on housing market conditions across the broad value-based cohorts highlights that the market recovery is being led by the most expensive quarter of the market, although values are also rising across the more affordable strata as well, just not as rapidly.”
"Across the combined capital cities, values within the top quartile were up 5.3% over the three months ending October 2019, while the broad middle of the market was up 2.6% and the lower quartile was up 0.7%."
“These ‘macro’ figures are influenced by stronger housing market conditions in Sydney and Melbourne where housing values are inherently higher, however the trends are reflected at a sub-regional level as well,” Mr Lawless said.
Over the three months ending October 2019, the fastest appreciation in capital city home values has been across the top quartile of Melbourne and Sydney where values were 7.1% and 5.9% higher.
The next best performing sectors were also in Sydney and Melbourne, with the broad ‘middle’ of the market recording a 4.6% rise in Sydney and 4.5% rise in Melbourne.
The lower quartile of Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values were the sectors that recorded the third largest rise over the past three months, up 3.2% across Sydney’s lower quartile and 3.8% higher across Melbourne’s lower quartile.
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Sydney and Melbourne property markets take top three spots in recovery: CoreLogic

Strengthened property turnaround evidence seen by RBA: August RBA minutes

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The Sydney and Melbourne property markets are showing ‘clear signs of recovery’ with auction clearance rates hitting more than 70 per cent in both the capital cities.
According to CoreLogic, Sydney hit 77.2 per cent and Melbourne delivered 73.6 per cent.
The trend now is very clear with interim results in the 60s and 70s in the past four weeks and final clearance rates above 60 per cent for that period. This is significantly higher than the clearance rate of 52 per cent a year ago.
A combination of the surprise election results, the RBA interest rate cuts, APRA's changes to floor assessment and tax cuts, which would deliver more funds to households, all contributed to the confidence of the market and, consequently, higher clearance rates that were also connected to higher prices.
While volumes are still low, in this context it means sellers, generally, don't feel the rush to sell.
However, further improvement in auction results and the turnaround in the market are likely to lead to an increased volume as sellers expect stronger demand for their properties and, therefore, are more confident to put them on the market.
The high end of the market continued to lead the way with extremely strong results in Sydney’s eastern suburbs with 90 per cent clearance rates, and both Sydney Inner West and Inner South West reaching 87 per cent.
In Melbourne the lucrative areas of the Inner East and Inner South continued with their consistently strong results this week delivering 77.3 per cent and 76.9 per cent, respectively.
DORON PELEG is CEO of RiskWise Property Research.
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Seller numbers expected to increase as Sydney & Melbourne property markets show positive signs: Doron Peleg

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The past financial year saw a roller coaster ride for investors.
Share markets plunged into Christmas only to rebound over the last six months. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the investment outlook for 2019-20.
 A volatile but good year for diversified investors The past financial year saw pretty good returns for investors. 
But it didn’t feel so good around Christmas as a combination of worries – President Trump’s trade war with China, a slowdown in China, Fed rate hikes, an end to quantitative easing in the Eurozone, falling property prices and election fears in Australia saw share markets fall sharply.
In fact, from its September high to Christmas Eve US shares plunged 20%. But in the last six months share markets have rebounded as while the trade threat has run hot and cold and tensions in the Middle East have escalated central banks have turned dovish with many either easing (like the RBA and PBOC) or signalling that monetary easing is likely (such as the Fed and ECB).
This has seen global share markets rebound sharply with Australian shares having their best June half since the early 1990s – helped along by the return of the Coalition Government. So for the financial year as a whole global shares returned 6.6% in local currency terms and thanks to a fall in the Australian dollar they returned 12% in Australian dollar terms.
Australian shares returned 11.6% touching an 11-year high. Cash and bank deposits had poor returns not helped by the RBA cutting the cash rate to a new record low in June.
But bonds had a spectacular turnaround as rising bond yields on the back of Fed tightening a year ago gave way to plunging yields – to record lows in many countries - as inflation subsided and central banks turned dovish resulting in Australian bonds returning 9.6%.
The plunge in bond yields reinvigorated the search for yield and so helped yield-sensitive listed property and infrastructure have strong returns.
Unlisted property and infrastructure continued to do well, despite a rougher ride for retail property. Balanced growth superannuation funds are estimated to have returned around 7% after taxes and fees.
For the last five years their returns have averaged around 7.4% pa, which is not bad given sub 2% inflation.
Australian residential property fared poorly though with average capital city prices down 8%, but signs of stabilisation have emerged recently helped by the election result and rate cuts.
Key lessons for investors from the last financial year
1. Turn down the noise – despite the endless predictions of financial disaster it turned out okay again. 2. Maintain a well-diversified portfolio – while shares had a rough ride, bonds, unlisted assets and exposure to foreign currency for Australian investors provided some stability. 3. Cash is still not king – while cash and bank deposits provided safe steady returns, they remain very low.
The negatives which will likely constrain returns…
There are a bunch of threats which are likely to lead to bouts of volatility and constrain returns. 
First, President Trump’s trade war with China and threats against other countries is adversely affecting business confidence and investment. Trade talks with China have resumed and both sides have a strong incentive to resolve the issue but there is a risk that they may not. 
Second, global growth indicators are well down from their highs at the start of last year. And the yield curve in the US is flashing a recession warning.
Third, the risk of conflict with Iran has escalated after the US ditched its commitment to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. As roughly 20% of global oil demand flows through the Strait of Hormuz its disruption would threaten sharply higher oil prices. 
Fourth, US political risk is likely to ramp up with the debt ceiling needed to be increased around September (remember the debt ceiling/US ratings downgrade of 2011!) and Democratic presidential debates highlighting a sharp leftward lurch at a time when the top Democrat nominees are polling ahead of Trump. 
Fifth, Eurozone risks remains with an increased risk of a no deal Brexit which would be a big drag on the UK economy as 46% of its exports go to the EU and a small drag on European growth as 6% of its exports go to the UK. More important for the Eurozone is the ongoing tensions around the still worsening Italian budget deficit. 
Finally, in Australia while house prices are showing signs of being at or near the bottom, rising unemployment risks resulting in a negative feedback loop and another leg down, which in turn would further weigh on economic growth.
…but a bunch of things should keep returns positive
However, there are a bunch of positives providing an offset. 
First, while global growth indicators are soft, there has been a loss of downwards momentum in the Eurozone and globally it still looks like the growth slowdowns of 2011-12 and 2015-16. 
Second, the fall in global inflation has seen central banks move from tightening to easing to various degrees, providing a renewed stimulus to growth. This is a big difference to a year ago when it was thought that the hurdle for central bank easing was high. •
Third, while the US yield curve is flashing red it’s not always reliable, it may be distorted by central bank quantitative easing and it has long lead times. What’s more there is still little sign of the sort of excess that normally precedes recessions – there is still spare capacity globally, growth in private debt remains moderate, investment as a share of GDP is around average or below, wages growth and inflation remain low and we are yet to see a generalised euphoria in asset prices. The current growth slowdown globally maybe seen as extending the investment cycle by delaying the build up of recession driving excesses. 
Fourth, while Trump’s trade wars and maximum pressure on Iran may reflect the pursuit of international relevance at a time when his ability to do anything in the US is constrained (having lost Congress) it is in his interest to resolve both in a non-disruptive way as American’s don’t re-elect presidents when unemployment is rising and oil prices are surging. 
Fifth, share valuations are not excessive. While price to earnings ratios are moderately above long-term averages in developed countries, this is to be expected in a world of low inflation. Valuation measures that allow for low interest rates and bond yields show shares to be fair value or cheap.
Finally, while unemployment is expected rise to 5.5% this year in Australia it should be limited as infrastructure spending remains strong, mining investment bottoms out, export demand holds up with overall growth helped by monetary and fiscal stimulus and the low Australian dollar.
What about the return outlook?
The threats around trade and geopolitical risks along with the tendency for seasonal weakness out to September/October could see a pull back in share markets and returns are likely to be constrained. But easy money and the absence of large-scale economic excess should help extend the cycle and keep returns positive at around 6% over the next 12 months from a well diversified portfolio.
Looking at the major asset classes:
Cash and bank deposit returns are likely to be poor at around 1% as the RBA is expected to cut the cash rate to 0.5% by early next year. Investors still need to think about what they really want: if it’s capital stability then stick with cash but if it’s a decent stable income flow then consider the alternatives with Australian shares and unlisted commercial property and infrastructure still offering attractive yields.
Sovereign bond investors benefit from falling yields but once they stop falling expect returns to slow again as yields are now very low. Bonds are good portfolio diversifiers though. 
Listed and unlisted commercial property and infrastructure are likely to benefit from the ongoing “search for yield” and okay economic growth. 
Residential property still has a bit more short-term downside risk but expect flattish prices through calendar 2020 as an upwards drift in unemployment constrains returns. 
Shares are at risk of a correction into the seasonally weak September/October period, but okay valuations, reasonable economic growth and profits and even easier monetary conditions should see the broad trend in shares remain up.
Finally, the $A is likely to fall to around $US0.65 by year end as the RBA eases, but with significant short positions, the Fed easing too and the sharp 39% $A fall already seen since 2011 it has become a closer call.
Things to keep an eye on:
Global business conditions PMIs for any deeper slowing; the trade war – this needs to be resolved soon; Middle East tensions around Iran; US political risks; risks around Chinese growth; and Australian unemployment and house prices.
Conclusion
Returns are likely to be okay over 2019-20 as conditions are not in place for recession. But expect constrained returns - say around 6% for a diversified fund - and bouts of volatility.
SHANE OLIVER is the Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist at AMP Capital 
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2018-19 saw a rough ride for investors but it turned out okay: Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirms household wealth has fallen, on the back of falling house prices, in the past year.
But it’s not all bad news. There are signs of hope in the portents for the next six months.
During the first quarter of this year, the net worth of all Australian households rose 0.2% to A$10.2 trillion. Total household net worth in March 2019 was 0.7% lower than in March 2018, largely because of steep falls over the final six months of 2018.
The per capita annual decline was larger, falling by about 2.4%, because of population growth. This means the average wealth of Australians dropped by about A$9,500, from A$414,400 to A$404,900.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281542/original/file-20190627-76734-mgok7i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281542/original/file-20190627-76734-mgok7i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Source: ABS)
This household “balance sheet event” – defined as an annual decline in household sector net wealth – is the third in the past 30 years. The other two were through the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and immediately after.
Housing (land and dwellings) comprises 52% of household-sector assets. Superannuation comprises 24%. Property values fluctuate with real estate prices, while superannuation is highly exposed to volatility within the financial markets.
Consumer spending
The next chart highlights the relationship between changes in household net worth and spending on discretionary items and durable goods.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281543/original/file-20190627-76705-1x1u3cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281543/original/file-20190627-76705-1x1u3cv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> 
(Source: ABS)
But what is interesting is that consumer sentiment has not been significantly affected.
The following chart shows household net worth vs Westpac’s consumer sentiment data. This is the first major downturn in household net wealth in 30 years that has not coincided with weaker consumer sentiment.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281544/original/file-20190627-76743-j7e3bv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281544/original/file-20190627-76743-j7e3bv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Source: ABS &amp; Westpac)
It’s hard to know for certain why consumer confidence has remained relatively steady, but two things stand out.
First, the consumer financial adjustment has been orderly and deliberate as opposed to rapid and forced. It appears people have consciously adjusted spending and savings patterns to achieve long-term savings goals.
Second, there has been ongoing strength in the labour market. Despite falling wealth, people still have jobs and this reinforces confidence.
Shares and housing stocks
It is safe to say consumers will start spending more once they feel their asset position has stabilised.
Strong equity markets have played a big role in shoring up household wealth since the start of this year. As the next chart demonstrates, they could continue to do so over the period ahead.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281545/original/file-20190627-76701-g5i77p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281545/original/file-20190627-76701-g5i77p.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Source: ABS &amp; Bloomberg)
But the big swing factor is house prices – specifically land values. The Reserve Bank’s interest rate cuts should help stabilise house prices over the second half of 2019.
Our last chart suggests this appears to have started, with auction clearance rates improving in recent months.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281548/original/file-20190627-76722-ruuein.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/281548/original/file-20190627-76722-ruuein.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
(Source: ABS &amp; CoreLogic &amp; Bloomberg)
This all suggests household wealth could start growing again in the second half of the year. That should go a long way to stabilising the economy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119001/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-household-wealth-has-taken-its-biggest-dive-since-the-gfc-but-things-are-looking-up-119001" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Australian household wealth has taken its biggest dive since the GFC, but things are looking up: Warren Hogan

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The number of consumers who don’t think will be a good time to sell their home or investment property continues to out-weigh those who think it is, according to a new survey. 
NAB's latest Australian Consumer Anxiety Survey for Q2 2019 noted these results suggest many consumers still think the housing downturn could still have more to run.
In net terms, +32% said they thought now was a good time to buy a property to live in and +34% to renovate their home.
With house prices continuing to fall across the country, consumers who thought it wasn’t a good time to sell their home (-35%) or investment property (-33%) also continued to significantly out-weigh those who thought it was a good time to sell.
However, the net number who thought so was somewhat lower than in the previous quarter, suggesting that some consumers may believe the market is close to the bottom.
With downward pressures on interest rates, it also noted a large increase in the net number of consumers who thought it was a good time to get a mortgage on their home (+13).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/26/Good%20time%20NAB%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: NAB Anxiety Report Q2 2019
On balance, slightly more consumers (+29%) believe it will be a good time to buy a property to live in over the next 12 months (+25% in Q1 2019), and +24% to renovate their home (+23% in Q1 2019).
The number of consumers who don’t think it will be a good time to sell their home (-15%) or investment property (-14%) continues to out-weigh those who think it is - but this has fallen since Q1 2019, suggesting more consumers are expecting market conditions to improve.
With widespread speculation for further interest rate cuts in 2019, those who think it will be a good time to take out a mortgage a mortgage for their own home (+10) also rose.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/26/Good%20time%20NAB%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: NAB Anxiety Report Q2 2019
Consumer intentions around property are still overwhelming conservative.
The net number of consumers who said they didn’t intend to sell investment property (-83%), renovate an investment property (-81%), take out an investment loan (-79%), sell their home (-78%), buy investment property (-75%), take out a home loan (-74%) or sell the home they live in (-66%) far outweighed those who said they would.
Consumers were least negative about renovating their homes (-49%). Intentions remain overwhelmingly negative and conservative in all states - see table below.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/26/Good%20time%20NAB%203.JPG" alt="">
Source: NAB Anxiety Report Q2 2019
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Australians still fear the property market has further to fall: NAB

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The Melbourne office market vacancy rates, in particular in the Melbourne CBD, city fringe and inner east, are lower than the long-term average vacancy levels and are anticipated to further decline in the second half of 2019, according to the latest Commercial Market report from Herron Todd White.
The Melbourne CBD’s overall office vacancy rate was at 3.2% in January 2019, the lowest of all of Australia’s CBDs. according to the Property Council of Australia’s Office Market Report. 
According to HTW's property valuation reporters, there is limited new supply and available stock in the market until 2020. 
The robust leasing market is also being fuelled by healthy tenant demand driving strong rental growth in both face and effective levels.
Due to the rise in CBD rentals, the city fringe precinct continues to gain popularity from the creative, technology and professional services sectors.
Tenant demand is also strong in the inner east markets, particularly in highly soughtafter suburbs such as Richmond, Cremorne and Hawthorn. The inner east has a vacancy rate of 3.58%, the lowest amongst all of the metro precincts in Melbourne.
The June report stated, "It is expected that rental growth will continue for the remainder of 2019 in these precincts for well-located, good quality stock. Sales demand is particularly strong for well-located, land-rich investment assets."
"A circa 1990 double storey office building at 79-83 High Street, Kew (pictured in title) sold off-market ahead of the launch of an EOI campaign for $19 million in April 2019, reflecting a passing yield of approximately 6.2%. The property comprised 19 strata units with a total lettable area of approximately 3,361 square metres situated on a 3,760 square metre Commercial 1 zoned land allotment."
"The building had 10% vacancy and was sold to fund manager, Terraplex, with intentions to refurbish the building and potentially add extra floor space," they noted.
In the outer suburban market, the sale at 347-351 Burwood Highway, Forest Hill represents the largest metropolitan office transaction this year.
The property was sold to an adjoining owner, a Melbourne based developer, for $45.85 million in April 2019.
The property is situated opposite the Tally Ho Business Park and comprises a 2.62 hectare Commercial 1 zoned allotment improved with two office buildings with a combined net lettable area of approximately 10,692 square metres.
The property is approximately 70% leased to a variety of tenants including NEC, Bolton Clarke and Hamilton Morello.
The HTW valuers said, "we highlight that the purchaser elected to purchase the property as is without a 30% rental guarantee from the vendor and without deduction of outstanding incentives. The property has a WALE (by income) of 3.4 years and a reported reversionary yield of approximately 7.32%."
"The relatively low yield for an asset of this nature with sizeable leasing risk demonstrates the confidence buyers currently have in the Melbourne metropolitan office market."
"Due to the slowdown in the residential market and tightening lending criteria, demand for development sites within the inner suburban region has declined somewhat, however we are aware of ongoing, albeit subdued demand from developers seeking to secure well located sites to establish mixed use developments within close proximity of neighbouring retail strips, amenities and public transport."
"It is uncertain when residential market conditions will begin to recover and purchasers are cautious that any future downturn in economic activity may lead to a reduction in demand and market value, however we note that demand for commercial development sites, particularly sites with holding income, is strong in inner city areas such as Richmond, Cremorne and South Melbourne where developers are intending to deliver commercial office projects instead of apartment projects in the current market to capture the strong office leasing and sales conditions," they concluded.
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Melbourne CBD office vacancy rate lowest in Australia: HTW Commercial

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Today, for the first time in 34 months, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to reduce the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent. This represents the lowest cash rate on record and is the first time since August 2016 that the RBA board has shifted rates.
Why did they cut?
Despite the current strength of employment markets, the outlook for the Australian economy has softened. In addition, an escalation in the trade war between the US and China combined with the ongoing delay and dispute over Brexit has increased headwinds for global economic growth. The domestic economy has seen inflation track well below the RBA’s target of 2-3 per cent for some time, with low levels of household spending, soft wage growth, a slump in dwelling approvals and resistance from banks to lend all driving today’s RBA decision.
What it means for property markets?
Today’s interest rate decision, if passed on in full by the banks, will assist mortgage holders and encourage buyers that have disengaged from the property market to re-evaluate their situation. The past few weeks have seen buyers re-engage with enquiries and attendance at open homes both lifting. The increase in confidence comes off-the-back of the Coalition win at the federal election, ensuring there are no changes to negative gearing or capital gains tax concessions for property investors.
In addition, a new first home buyers deposit scheme, announced prior to the election, and the relaxation of finance restrictions by banking regulators provides a positive outlook for property markets leading into the second half of the year.
For property buyers
Today’s RBA decision along with the recent announcement by APRA that they are looking to relax lending restrictions, should help lift mortgage affordability. This will help up-sizers, down-sizers, investors and first home buyers re-engage with property markets after a period of indecision and uncertainly.
For property sellers
Today’s RBA decision bodes well for property owners looking to sell in the second half of 2019. The past two weeks has seen demand from buyers increase and a reduction in interest will help drive increased attendance at open homes and buyer enquiry levels. Despite higher levels of interest from buyers, the number of properties coming onto the market for sale has yet to rise to meet this demand. This will help drive competition for well-located and accurately priced properties that are listed for sale over coming months.
MATHEW TILLER is the Head of Research at LJ Hooker
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