Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

Housing Affordability

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If you rely on mainstream media for your news, you probably won’t be aware of this: there has been a significant improvement in housing affordability in Australia recently.
In fact, my reading of the HIA’s Affordability Report for the March Quarter is that the Housing Affordability Index for Australia is now the best it’s been in five years. In some parts of the nation, the situation is the best it’s been in 13 years.
Affordability nationally improved 2.7 percent in the March Quarter, compared to the December Quarter, despite slightly higher interest rates.
Affordability is significantly better than it was five years ago, because interest rates are much lower (notwithstanding the recent out-of-cycle increases), average earnings have been gradually rising and price growth (meaning changes in the national median dwelling price) has been relatively muted, despite three years of big growth in Sydney.
Very little was said about this in Australia’s major newspapers. They’re simply not interested in facts that conflict with their cherished storylines about an affordability crisis, young Australians being priced out of the market by foreign investors and negatively-geared Australian investors, and the Great Australian Dream being dead.
A long-standing joke in journalistic circles is that you never let the facts get in the way of a good story. A good story is, by definition, a negative one. If it bleeds, it leads. If something comes along that doesn’t fit the formula (for example, portrays a positive scenario or contradicts beloved beliefs), bury it. 
So we have a situation where the national affordability index portrays a strong position but few people realise it. The national median dwelling price has decreased and average earnings have risen. The situation would be better were it not for major banks lifting their mortgage rates. 
That’s the average national situation. As the HIA report points out, “the differences in affordability across and within states are still considerable”.
In aggregate, affordability improved 4.1 percent in the eight capital cities in the March Quarter, with a lesser improvement in the regional areas.
Sydney’s quarterly improvement was considerably larger than the national average. It recorded an 8.9 percent increase in affordability, while Perth was 4.9 percent better and Darwin 4.4 percent.
Sydney’s affordability is now at its most favourable since the March 2015 Quarter. Price growth has stopped and incomes have risen. But it still has some way to go before it gets in line with the national average situation of being the best in over five years. Regional NSW, on the other hand, needs only a marginal improvement to achieve that.
Melbourne’s affordability index has improved with a slight reduction in the median dwelling price and increases in earnings, but remains 4.4 percent less favourable than a year ago.
Brisbane’s affordability position, on the other hand, has deteriorated because the median dwelling price is up and average earnings are down (slightly). 
But in Perth the affordability index improved 4.9 percent in the quarter and 9.9 percent for the year, because prices have been falling and incomes, surprisingly perhaps, have risen. Perth’s affordability position, and that of Western Australia generally, is the best it’s been for a long time. “Statewide affordability in WA is at its most favourable since the final quarter of 2003,” the HIA report says.
The position has improved also in Hobart and Tasmania. There the economy has been making notable strides and income growth is well above the national average. The HIA notes: “For Tasmania as a whole, affordability has reached its most favourable level since late 2003.” 
In the Northern Territory, the housing affordability index is 11.3 percent better than a year ago. And it’s better than it’s been any time in at least the past five years. Darwin’s index has improved 13.9 percent compared to a year ago. The Darwin market peaked more than three years ago and prices have been trending downwards since then, but average earnings have been rising.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Significant improvement in housing affordability: Terry Ryder

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At the end of 2015, the median price of vacant land across the combined capital cities was recorded at $265,000 while the median land price across the combined regional markets was $156,000. 
A $109,000 (69.9%) price difference between regional and capital city prices is now the largest differential on record for both.
It also goes some way to explaining the differences in the cost of built form (houses or units) in the capital cities relative to non-capital city areas. Over the past year, capital city vacant land prices have increased by 4.0% compared to a -5.2% fall in prices in regional areas.
At the end of 2015, the median lot size for capital city vacant land was 466 sqm having increased by 3.6% over the year. Across regional markets the median land size was a much larger 809 sqm having increased by 8.3% over the past year. 
Land sizes have fallen over time in capital city and regional markets however, lot size compression has been much greater in capital cities. To put this in perspective, median lot sizes have fallen at a rate of - 2.5% annually in capital cities over the past decade compared to falls of -0.5% per annum in regional markets. 
Across the combined capital cities the median rate/sqm for vacant land was recorded at $552 at the end of last year. At the same time the rate was a substantially lower $179/sqm in regional markets. Capital city rates/sqm has fallen by -2.5% over the past year while in regional markets they are -12.4% lower.
The fall in capital city rates/sqm is due to the increase in land sizes while in regional markets it is due to both prices falling and land sizes increasing over the past year.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2012.41.40%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2012.41.40%20PM.png" alt="">
As can be seen in the tables outlining the key vacant land statistics across each of the state capital cities, Sydney’s median land price ($410,000) is substantially higher than the other capital cities. Compared with the second most expensive city, Perth, at $299,000, Sydney’s median land price is more than $100,000 higher. The two cities which have seen the highest rates of housing value growth in recent years, Sydney and Melbourne, have also recorded an exceptional increase in median land prices over the past year at 20.2% and 23.5% respectively. Although Sydney is the most expensive on a rate per square metre basis, vacant land in Perth is the nation’s most expensive by virtue of the fact that only Adelaide has smaller lot sizes. 
Today’s data provides valuable insights into the reasons why housing costs in the capital cities is so high. In a market like Sydney for example, if the typical land costs $410,000 it is difficult to imagine being able to buy the land and build a home for less than $550,000. 
With housing affordability now back on the national political agenda it is likely we will see renewed focus on the high cost of developable land in our capital cities. Reforms to reduce the cost of the vacant land would go a long way to improving housing affordability, particularly for new homes. Of course the other alternative is to encourage greater economic development of regional areas where the cost of housing is significantly lower than it is in the capital cities.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2012.43.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2012.43.35%20PM.png" alt="">
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Land prices on the increase: Cameron Kusher

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Amid increasingly irrational media coverage of property markets, occasionally there is a mild outbreak of common sense.
It’s doesn’t happen often, but sometimes someone who understands real estate and doesn’t have publicity as their prime objective will comment – and a media outlet will actually print it.
It’s unusual because media tends to favour sensational negatives from non-specialists for whom the main motivation is generation of publicity.
Amid the great seething mass of nonsense about housing affordability – dominated by people arguing their vested interest, political world-view or pet theory, often with a silver-bullet miracle solution – there is the occasional commentator who understands the issue.
This rare moment of common sense on the affordability issue came from Ken Morrison, CEO of the Property Council of Australia:
“For 20 years we have had a logjam of costly regulation, poor planning decisions and excessive taxation across all levels of government. This has driven up construction costs, impeded supply and resulted in the dramatic increase in house prices in our major cities …
“This affordability cauldron has taken years to develop, and it will take concerted effort over many years to unwind ...
"Too much of the housing affordability debate has misdiagnosed the problems, focused on measures that won't do anything to fix affordability, or set out to blame scapegoats for political convenience.”
That’s the best summary of the issue I’ve seen in all these years of hot air, parliamentary inquiries, political rhetoric, media outrage and lack of decisive action. But it has been drowned by the tsunami of emotive misinformation that has dominated the “debate”.
Then we have the issue of the alleged bubble, over-valuation of housing and impending collapse of values – usually from overseas observers looking at Australia through a very long telescope, although also from the usual local suspects such as Shane “Why can’t I ever get this right?” Oliver or Steve “Why are people still listening to me?” Keen.
Media just loves hearing from anyone silly enough to predict that our housing values will fall massively.
And then, recently, out of the blue someone with a rational, well-thought-out viewpoint was given some minor airplay.
Stephen Halmarick, chief economist at Colonial First State Global Asset Management (Australia’s biggest fund manager), said that the risks of a residential property crash were being exaggerated. He said he’s heard stories of impending doom in the property market for most of his 30-year career, but he doesn’t see any more risk of a crash this time.
“I do get a little bit worked up sometimes when I read in the paper that there will be lots of mortgage stress if interest rates rise sharply,” Halmarick said. “But inflation would have to increase dramatically above the target range before that occurs. So you ask yourself the probability of those things happening - and I think it is pretty low …
“I’ve seen so-called experts from overseas — usually Americans — saying that the housing market in Australia is a bubble that’s going to burst and take the banking system with it. They’ve been telling me that for 25 years and they’re still wrong.”
While he conceded that there are pockets of concern in the eastern capital cities, Halmarick said the Australian housing market “isn’t as vulnerable as some of the headlines would lead you to believe”. And he does not see much risk to the financial system from the property market.
“People just look at gross debt to income, which is high, at 190%,” he said. “But if you look at net debt to income — taking account of the redraw facilities — household debt has been roughly flat since 2006 because people have used the lower interest rates to repay their mortgages faster.
“So the value of housing assets has gone up a lot, as have super funds and other investments of households. So their net wealth continues to rise and is actually close to record highs.”
Many articles have characterised the current situation as a national property boom, with prices either soaring or skyrocketing – everywhere, apparently – and “white hot” markets running rampant with growth that is unprecedented.
And then recently Property Observer quietly put that into perspective with some data which showed that, compared to the previous cycle, it’s all far from extraordinary and unprecedented.
It reported that capital city dwelling values (the average across the eight cities) have risen 45 percent in the past seven years, compared to a rise of 98 percent in the previous seven years (2000 to 2007).
“So far this decade, dwelling values growth is less than half that over the same period last decade,” Property Observer reported.
This is because that previous period included the last time Australia had a genuine nationwide property boom. In 2003, according to ABS data, every capital city grew at least 13 percent in terms of median house prices, with four cities above 20 percent growth.
We haven’t had anything remotely like that this time around. The overall city growth figure for the past seven years is relatively low because only Sydney has had consecutive years of double-digit growth, while Melbourne has only recently challenged. Perth and Darwin have been going backwards for four years, while Adelaide and Brisbane have delivered very little growth. Hobart and Canberra have recently sprung to life.
So the scenario across the past four years has been big performance in Sydney, un-matched by any other city. Sydney’s situation dominates coverage by media, which has tended to extrapolate the city’s growth and pricing levels to the rest of the nation, creating a national crisis.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
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Common sense can prevail in the housing affordability issue: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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A number of indicators suggest that Melbourne’s strong run of price rises may be nearing an end.
There’s no doubt the Melbourne market overall is strong and currently one of the most buoyant in the nation. Some research sources have Melbourne house price growth ahead of Sydney now, although others in the land of dodgy data still have Sydney leading. 
An analysis by Performance Property Advisory finds that the key indicators, while slightly mixed, suggest that Melbourne is now coming to the end of its growth cycle.
Indicators which point to a moderation in price growth include the firm’s affordability index, the level of rental yields, the high price growth in the past three years relative to longer-term trends and a decline in the influence of foreign investors.
Director David McMillan says: “From an investment point of view, Melbourne is showing all the signs of a market running out of steam.”
He says the firm’s Affordability Index (AI) is currently sitting at 43 percent and historically the Melbourne market has struggled to grow past this point.
“Properties become unaffordable in Melbourne when the market’s AI rises to around 45 percent,” he says. “Melbourne’s AI is hovering around the 43 percent mark, indicating that properties are approaching a natural ceiling. The most likely outcome is a low-growth environment over the next 2-3 years.” 
McMillan says that from 2009 to 2016, incomes rose approximately 15 percent while house prices rose 79 percent.
“The out-performance of house prices against incomes is, in our view, unsustainable and this is a negative for future price growth in Melbourne,” he says.
“It is clear that the three-year price movement is well above trend at 12.96 percent per annum. On that basis it could be said that the Melbourne market is likely to slow down in the short term.” 
McMillan also notes that Melbourne has the second lowest yields among the major cities, with only Sydney lower. “Due to an out-performing median house price, we have seen yields progressively deteriorating, which is a negative for both investors and first-home buyers,” he says. 
The report says total foreign investment in Victoria has quadrupled in the last three years, from around $6.6 billion to $26.6 billion, but is expected to decline in the coming year.
“While we encourage foreign investment, the phenomenal rise has led to over-speculation and over-building in some pockets of Melbourne – the consequences of which are yet to be fully understood by the market.
“Given that the banks have now ceased lending to foreigners, we expect that this number will reduce as much as $10 billion in the 2017 financial year. The large swings in foreign investment have distorted normal market cycles and are expected to lead to increased supply.”
But price decline is not expected, as there are counter-balancing positives for the Melbourne market. They include a high level of proposed infrastructure spending by the federal and state governments, the low rate of unemployment, relatively low levels of stock for sale, a low “Days On Market” indicator, and strong levels of population growth (both existing and projected future rises). 
“Victoria has gone from being a loser from Net Interstate Migration in the 1990s, to a fairly neutral position during the 2000s, to being a winner since 2010, which has been a key factor of the price growth we have seen since 2009.”
Performance Property does note, however, that there has been a level of oversupply in B and C grade housing and apartment stock.
It recommends that investors avoid the off-the-plan apartment market and I wholeheartedly endorse that. “This market is showing no value and price falls in the short term are possible,” McMillan says. “There are no fundamentals that support price growth in the short term. 
But he does see some value opportunities in the Lifestyle and Middle Ring housing markets. 
“This is really a tale of two markets, with house-and-land packages on the metro fringe and inner-city off-the-plan property over-supplied, while the established school belt areas of Melbourne are in short supply,” he says.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="mailto:%20%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'%3E%20%3C!--%20var%20prefix%20=%20'ma'%20+%20'il'%20+%20'to';%20var%20path%20=%20'hr'%20+%20'ef'%20+%20'=';%20var%20addy38821%20=%20'ryder'%20+%20'@';%20addy38821%20=%20addy38821%20+%20'hotspotting'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'com'%20+%20'.'%20+%20'au';%20document.write('%3Ca%20'%20+%20path%20+%20'/''%20+%20prefix%20+%20':'%20+%20addy38821%20+%20'/'%3E');%20document.write(addy38821);%20document.write('%3C//a%3E');%20//--%3E/n%20%3C/script%3E%3Cscript%20type='text/javascript'" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Melbourne’s strong run of property price rises may be ending

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The quickest path for first home buyers to purchasing a house in Greater Hobart is Brighton, according to a report released this week by Domain.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/b16c0b957ea98f662ab985606/images/b7d9b0c3-df73-4669-a275-9750aee501f7.png">
For those looking to buy a home, Greater Hobart is one of the most accessible capital cities in Australia with the lowest entry price for houses.
"However, when LGAs are considered, accessibility is driven by the affordable outskirts," the report said.
The LGA of Hobart takes approximately 6.3 years to save for an entry price home deposit, which is almost on par with the average time to save for a deposit in Greater Sydney (6.7 years).
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/6/29/Hobart%20Home.jpg" alt="">
Indicative of Brighton's price potential, 23 Andrew Street, Brighton (pictured above) the two bedroom, one bathroom house sold for $230,000 last month.
However even though Greater Hobart requires the shortest time to save of all the capital cities, this has increased by three months for houses and four months for units compared to last year, a result of a strong, growing market outpacing wage growth.
<img src="https://gallery.mailchimp.com/b16c0b957ea98f662ab985606/images/965aee85-8e99-4381-9cbb-e52d9cb42f11.png">
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Brighton ranked the quickest FHB path to house ownership in Greater Hobart: Domain

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With plenty of talk about a housing bubble and home values climbing much higher in Sydney and Melbourne, housing is looking expensive to many Australians. 
Low interest rates and the strong gains in certain areas are making residential housing investment quite attractive for some which is one of the drivers resulting in increasing home values. While housing may be looking expensive to locals, the declining Australian dollar means that it may be looking more attractive to foreign buyers.
Since combined capital city home values reached their most recent low point in May 2012 they have risen by 26.8%. At the same time the Australian dollar has fallen by -13.3% over that period in trade-weighted index terms. While the depreciation in the dollar has no impact on local buyers, for off-shore buyers the fall in the Australian dollar is likely to make Australian housing even more attractive. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank continues to state that there is a need for an even lower dollar which would exacerbate the relative affordability even further.
Foreign buyers are meant to be purchasing brand new homes in most instances. There have been numerous recent reports of foreign buyers not adhering to these rules.  Furthermore a recent parliamentary inquiry found that the Foreign Investment Review Board was significantly underfunded and as a result has not been able to effectively monitor and enforce foreign investment rules.
<a href="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-31.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-31.jpg" alt="">
Combined capital city home values have increased by 26.8% between May 2012 and June 2015. Keep in mind that these figures are heavily influenced by the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets with these the only two capital cities recording value growth in excess of this figure over the period. When you look at that 26.8% increase across other currencies you can see the impact of the falling exchange rate. Of those currencies highlighted only the Japanese Yen and Indonesian Rupiah have seen values rise by a greater amount. Across most other currencies the relative value rises have been significantly lower than they have been in Australian dollar terms.
Once you look at capital cities that have seen relatively lower recent capital growth, there has been a significant improvement in Australian housing affordability for foreign buyers. Not to mention the fact that in many of these foreign countries mortgage holders are borrowing at significantly lower interest rates than those available to Australians.
Sydney
<a href="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-21.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 
<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-21.jpg" alt="">
Melbourne
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<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-31-1.jpg" alt="">
 
Brisbane
<a href="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-41.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 
<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-41.jpg" alt="">
Adelaide
<a href="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-51.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-51.jpg" alt="">
 
Perth
<a href="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-61.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-61.jpg" alt="">
 
Hobart
<a href="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-71.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-71.jpg" alt="">
Darwin
<a href="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-81.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-81.jpg" alt="">
 
Canberra
<a href="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/08/Chart-9.jpg" alt="">
 
With the RBA stating that the Australian dollar remains overvalued, any further falls in the Aussie dollar are likely to result in even more attractive buying conditions for foreign buyers. Given this it is imperative that foreign investment rules are tightened and FIRB improve their surveillance work.  A central register of foreign buyers would also be seemingly important. The Victorian Government has recently announced that it will increase fees and charges to foreign buyers of property in that state.  Despite howls of protest it would seem that this is likely to have little material impact on foreign demand for housing.  Furthermore, a national approach similar to this would be a good step towards appropriately funding FIRB to undertake their review and surveillance of foreign housing investment.  Particularly given that should the dollar fall further demand from off-shore buyers is likely to increase.
Earlier this week Federal Treasury released the Exposure Drafts and Regulatory Impact Statement of legislation designed to tighten foreign investment rules, including those relating to residential real estate. The document can be read <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/ConsultationsandReviews/Consultations/2015/Implementing-Foreign-Investment-Reforms" target="_blank">here</a> and submissions can be made up until Friday 17 July.
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Australian property, expensive for us, not so for foreigners: Cameron Kusher 

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There continues to be a yawning divide between the facts on housing affordability and media coverage claiming a crisis.
Yawning is an appropriate word, because journalistic insistence on declaring the Great Australian Dream dead in the face of all the evidence has become boring.
According the latest research on the subject, property in Australia is more affordable than it was 12 months ago – with the exception of one state (no prizes for guessing which one) .
Across Australia, affordability improved in the June Quarter from 30.9% of household income devoted to mortgage payment to 30.3%, according to a new report from the Real Estate Institute of Australia and Adelaide Bank.
The exception to a general picture of improving affordability was New South Wales, where households used 35.6% of their income to meet their mortgage repayments in the June 2015 quarter, compared to 35.3% in the June 2014 quarter.
Last month, the other major research into housing affordability – the Housing Affordability Index from the HIA – also found that affordability has been improving around Australia, with Sydney as the obvious exception.
Media generally manages to ignore that reality and run headlines like “Are foreign investors destroying the first home buyer market?” and articles like a recent one published recently by the Herald Sun which is a serious candidate for our annual Worst Article of the Year award. 
A “journalist” declared in the Herald Sun that “the Great Australian Dream of a house in the suburbs has become an unaffordable nightmare” and justified this by quoting the price of the most expensive houses in a range of suburbs – not the median price, but the dearest. 
The writer noted there was a house for sale in Doncaster asking $3.5 million and used that to support this declaration: “What hope will our kids have?” The article went downhill from there. 
That’s the reality of mainstream media in modern Australia. There are favoured story lines and publications will pursue them with little regard for the facts.
Back in the real world, the new research on affordability shows that the Northern Territory experienced the biggest gain in affordability, with the share of income needed to meet mortgage repayments falling 2.8 percentage points, from 26.6% to 24.9%. 
Western Australia improved from 26.6% to 24.4% and Tasmania from 25% to 22.9%. South Australian mortgagees had a saving of 1.6 points, from 27.1% to 25.5%, while Queensland improved from 28.1% to 27.3%, the ACT from 19.8% to 19.5% and Victoria from 32.2% to 32.1%.
Those hard statistics add to the growing pile of evidence that concerns about price booms, bubbles and out-of-control markets are overblown and wide of the mark.
It has promoted Domain Group senior economist Dr Andrew Wilson – one of the few economists in the land who has a grasp on property issues – to call on Australia’s prudential banking regulator to prove that the country's housing market really does need fixing
Wilson questioned the basis for restrictions to investor lending, saying that APRA had not provided detailed modeling to show why it believed the investor market was overheated.
“Where's the heat? I don't understand where the heat is,” he said. “We have the lowest level of mortgage defaults we've seen. Affordability is still below average levels.”
Wilson said Australian markets have a historical reputation for “orderly growth and correction phases”. He who noted that the one heated market, Sydney, was starting to cool as part of that natural process.
“This is the nature of our housing markets and we're very fortunate that we have those in-built stabilisers in our housing market. I think once we see policymakers interfere in that process, the downstream consequences are really problematic."
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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Yawning divide between the facts on housing affordability: Terry Ryder

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Like most people, Australians are past sick and tired of their elected politicians, simply because they do very little and collectively can’t solve problems – in fact, they now make them worse. 
Speaking at the 2017 Committee for Economic Development of Australia summit Henry was scathing. “Australia had become so paralysed by political inaction that it had gone from an optimistic nation which pioneered world’s best policy and nurtured world’s best institutions to a place that nobody looked to anymore to see how it should be done.”
“Have you heard a political leader addressing that question? Do you think anybody has a clue? At the very least, we are going to have to find radical new approaches for infrastructure planning, funding and construction.”
“Based on current estimates, Australia needs to build a city for two million people every two years or a city the size of Melbourne or Sydney every decade yet the only plan seems to be stuffing more people into Sydney and Melbourne.”
 
He went on to say that four priorities could be met by adopting, as a minimum, eight reform proposals. These are:
<ul class="ul1">
<li class="li1">Apolitical infrastructure planning and pricing, including the widespread use of road user charging;</li>
<li class="li1">A much lower company tax rate, or some other mechanism that reduces substantially the cost to Australian businesses of equity capital sourced from abroad, achieved much more quickly than is presently under consideration by our Parliament;</li>
<li class="li1">The removal of stamp duties on residential property;</li>
<li class="li1">Symmetrical tax treatment of interest and capital gains;</li>
<li class="li1">An overhaul of state-based royalties;</li>
<li class="li1">Market-based price signals to guide climate change mitigation and long term investment in the energy sector;</li>
<li class="li1">A broader base and higher rate of GST;</li>
<li class="li1">A substantial adjustment to roles and responsibilities between the Commonwealth and the states.</li>
</ul>
Stamp duty on residential property was supposed to be removed when the GST came in on July 1, 2000. How can you justify a duty that has increased by over 800 per cent over since 2000, when it was agreed that it would be removed? It is a no brainer that the GST has to be increased although this time around stamp duty has to be abolished.
This week, the NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian announced that the tunnel from Manly Vale to the Warringah Freeway was still going to happen although she could not say when? We all know that this won’t be happening given the Liberal Party has now been promising this tunnel since 2002. So, thousands and thousands of new apartments are approved and the NSW government does nothing for transport infrastructure. Then, of course, the NSW government announced late last year the Ingleside development with 3,400 new homes – this is just ludicrous.
No politician responded to the announcement from a new global report which found Sydney the tenth most expensive city in the world for residential tenants. How are young Australians supposed to be getting into our property markets when they are forced to pay some of the highest rents on the planet, then factor in stamp duty plus add another 10 per cent to their previous 10 per cent deposit to qualify for a bank loan? Superannuation is not the answer that is just a dumb solution. Malcolm Turnbull needs to be talking to Ken Henry and urgently implementing his solutions.
If you want to see the impact of stamp duty on property markets look at the graphs that we have compiled – look at the dramatic reduction in people selling.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Mosman-House-Sales-2016.png" target="_blank">Mosman House Sales</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Mosman-House-Sales-2016.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Mosman-Apartment-Sales-2016.png" target="_blank">Mosman Apartment Sales</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Mosman-Apartment-Sales-2016.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Cremorne-House-Sales-2016.png" target="_blank">Cremorne House Sales</a>
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Cremorne-House-Sales-2016.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Cremorne-Apartment-Sales-2016.png" target="_blank">Cremorne Apartment Sales</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Cremorne-Apartment-Sales-2016.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Neutral-Bay-House-Sales-2016.png" target="_blank">Neutral Bay House Sales</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Neutral-Bay-House-Sales-2016.png" alt=""> 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Neutral-Bay-Apartment-Sales-2016.png" target="_blank">Neutral Bay Apartment Sales</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/02/24/Neutral-Bay-Apartment-Sales-2016.png" alt=""> 
Why do politicians keep crucial infrastructure a secret? Well, that would be as Ken Henry correctly pointed out, “Australia has become so paralysed by political inaction”. To fix the problem you first need a model, and we now have one – courtesy of Ken Henry.
You can watch with interest how our elected politicians respond to Henry and his critiquing of the Australian economy. My money is on nothing happening as today we have political paralysis.
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
 
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

To fix Australia’s housing affordability listen to Ken Henry

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There are many wonderful quotes on the subject of truth and lots of them are relevant to Australian real estate issues.
Mark Twain said “A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes” while Winston Churchill is credited with saying “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened”.
Benjamin Disraeli gave us “There are three types of lies -- lies, damn lies, and statistics”, a reality which is seen every day in the press release-based coverage of Australian real estate.
But the one that’s most relevant to real estate today is this one from Nazi propagandist Joseph Goebbels: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”
We see this revealed in the many surveys conducted on real estate issues. In simple terms, the prevailing view is the one most often reported in mainstream media, the truth notwithstanding.
So if media keeps stating a “national affordability crisis” as a fact, as it does daily, it’s no surprise when a survey reveals that most respondents are very concerned that young Australians are priced out of real estate ownership – everywhere in Australia, apparently.
Nor was it surprising when another recent survey found that foreign investors are the most popular culprits blamed for rising house prices in Australia. 
This results largely from a cynical exercise by federal politicians taken direct from a script of the iconic UK sitcom Yes Minister. If you want to show concern for an issue but plan to change nothing, here’s what you do: hold an inquiry, string it out as long as you can and, at the end of it, find an unpopular minority to blame for the problem – and then recommend holding another, more in-depth, inquiry.
That’s pretty much the scenario that’s played out in Canberra over the past 2-3 years. A long inquiry ended by blaming all the problems on dastardly foreign investors. Brilliant, because greedy foreigners are easy to dislike and they don’t vote in Australian elections.
So, while bringing on a second inquiry (the one that recently concluded by making no recommendations), the Federal Government indulged lots of wonderful sabre rattling and passionate speeches about clamping down on foreigners who break the rules, thereby creating a level playing field for young Aussie hopefuls.
There were a few highly-publicized instances of foreign buyers being forced to sell back mansions they’d bought in breach of the foreign investment rules. There you go, Australia, problem solved.
But you’ll notice that prices have continued to rise in our biggest cities. All the fluff and nonsense, all those press statements and acres of newsprint - and not a single house is cheaper in Sydney or Melbourne.
Why is it so? Because foreign investors have little or nothing to do with the cost of homes out there in the burbs where first-home buyers hunt. They’re a tiny percentage of the overall market and they mostly target high-end houses in the big cities or off-the-plan apartments. They’re not scouring Blacktown or Caboolture or Cranbourne seeking to outbid Aussie first-home buyers.
But 35 percent of respondents to a RateCity survey believed that the single biggest reason for high house prices was foreign investors. Why? Because media reports keep telling them so and your average punter doesn’t waste a lot of time on independent thought.
The next most popular culprits in the survey, Australian investors, are also unfairly maligned as the cause of real estate prices rising everywhere.
And, once again, the two worst offenders get off scot free, because media never talks about them.
The buying sector that most drives prices is the mob known as next-time buyers – home buyers other than first-time buyers. Most of the time they’re the biggest individual buying cohort and they have the ambition, aspiration and financial capacity to pay a top price. Investors have different motivations.
And when it comes to new dwellings, the biggest source of high costs are politicians are all levels of government. Local government, state governments and the federal government – they all treat the housing industry as a cash cow and load up the cost of new dwellings with taxes, fees and charges.
So when new NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian declared that housing affordability was one of her top three priorities, she was (like everyone who has come before her) mouthing platitudes.
She’s refusing to even consider doing something about the worst of all home-buyer costs, stamp duty, which in Sydney borders on the obscene – nor about the contribution her government makes to the high cost of creating new dwellings.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
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NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian's housing affordability platitudes

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The decade ending in June 2019 has seen the national median dwelling value rise from $382,650 to $516,710, an annual increase of 3.0%. At the same time, household incomes (according to estimates from the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods) have risen at the annual pace of 3.1%, up from $59,020 per annum in 2009 to $79,872 in 2019. Over the same period, average mortgage rates (according to RBA statistics) fell from 5.1% in 2009 to 4.1% in June this year.
The wash up from these movements is that housing affordability, based on the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes, is broadly unchanged across Australia and households are generally dedicating less of their income towards servicing a new mortgage.
Nationally, the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes has varied over the past decade, moving through a low of 6.1 in late 2012 to a recent high of 7.0 in early 2018. In June 2019 the ratio was recorded at 6.5 which is equivalent to where it was in 2009.
A ratio of 6.5 simply means the typical Australian household is spending 6.5 times their gross annual household income in order to purchase the typical dwelling. While the national reading is the same as it was ten years ago, five of the eight capital cities and four of the seven non-capital city regions have recorded an improvement in the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes. The lowest ratio can be found in Darwin where the typical household is spending only 3.4 times their gross annual household income to purchase a dwelling (down from 5.6 ten years ago).
While most areas have seen housing values become more affordable relative to incomes, some areas have seen affordability worsen. Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart have seen housing values rise at a faster rate than household incomes which has eroded affordability.
The typical Sydney household is now spending 8.2 times their gross annual household income in order to purchase the median value dwelling, up from 6.6 ten years ago. Melbourne households are spending 7.2 times their annual income (up from 6.4 in 2009) and Hobart households are spending 6.5 times (up from 5.9).
Across the regional areas of Australia, the only areas where the ratio of dwelling values to household incomes has worsened is Regional NSW (6.6 in 2009 / 7.0 in 2019) and Regional Victoria (4.9 in 2009 / 5.6 in 2019). It’s a similar story with mortgage serviceability.
\Despite mortgage rates falling to the lowest level since at least the 1950’s, households in Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart are generally dedicating a larger proportion of their incomes towards servicing a new mortgage than they were in 2009.
Based on the proportion of household income required to service a new 80% LVR mortgage, Sydney households are dedicating 43.7% of their gross annual household income on mortgage repayments compared with 37.7% ten years ago. When mortgage rates were around 9% in early 2008, Sydney households were dedicating a much larger 54.2% to service a mortgage.
Melbourne households are dedicating 38.4% on average to service a new 80% LVR mortgage (up from 36.2% in 2009) and Hobart households spend an average of 34.3% of their income on a new mortgage (33.8% ten years ago). The smallest portion of income dedicated to new loan repayments is in Darwin at just 17.9% of income.
Although housing affordability has worsened relative to ten years ago in Sydney and Melbourne, the decline in home values together with a subtle rise in household incomes and lower mortgage rates has seen affordability and serviceability record a temporary improvement in these areas.
Since June, dwelling values have surged higher while income growth has remained sluggish, implying that the improvement in housing affordability that has been delivered via a fall in home values is now being eroded.
Longer term strategies for improving housing affordability should include both supply and demand side considerations, as well as taxation reform. On the supply side, ensuring infrastructure programs, land release and town planning policies are keeping pace with population growth is important.
On the demand side, population growth drives housing demand, as do stimulus measures such as first home buyer grants and tax concessions.
Incentivising jobs growth and infrastructure improvements in more affordable areas would support a redirection of population growth into areas where housing prices are more achievable.
Removing stamp duty would also help to improve housing affordability and housing mobility by lowering the transactional costs associated with purchasing a home.
TIM LAWLESS is the CoreLogic Head of Research
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