<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/broadbeach-qld-4218">Broadbeach</a> offers plenty of reasons to live vertically, but moving from a substantial family home into an apartment can expose the compromises of high-density living. Privacy, room for guests and usable living space tend to matter more when an apartment is intended as a permanent home rather than an occasional coastal base.

A typical residential floor at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a>, on Surf Parade,&nbsp;contains just four apartments. The 94-residence development by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> is predominantly made up of expansive three-bedroom homes, with a limited collection of half-floor penthouses above.

Across the apartment floors, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> has used the relatively limited number of residences to give each home greater access to natural light and outlook. Living spaces extend towards full-height glazing, while a series of bay windows frame selected views across the Pacific Ocean, city and hinterland rather than treating the building edge as a continuous wall of glass.

&nbsp;

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“The apartment floors deliver a collection of homes that embrace controlled outlook via a series of bay windows deliberately framing moments of view,” Rothelowman Director Kim Lowman said.

From outside, those projecting forms contribute to the tower’s faceted profile. Strong horizontal and vertical elements establish its proportions, while the changing position of the sun alters the light, shadow and reflection across the façade throughout the day.

The same attention moves inside the apartments, where the material palette combines warm timber, natural stone, metallic detailing and softer curved forms. Kitchens sit within the main living zone, with stone island benches, integrated joinery and European appliances, before the living areas extend towards the glazing and the outlook.

&nbsp;

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Three genuine bedrooms provide room to accommodate family and guests, while two secure car spaces and storage address some of the practical considerations that can become more noticeable when moving from a larger home. Feedback from the display suite has centred on the warmth and restraint of the interiors, with buyers commenting that the residences feel like homes rather than conventional coastal apartments.

A limited collection of half-floor penthouses occupies the upper levels, increasing the scale of the living spaces and adding private balconies and elevated finishes. From this position, the outlook extends between the ocean and hinterland.

Outside the private residences, The Eveleigh separates its shared spaces between the podium and rooftop. The podium is centred on wellness, with subtropical landscaping surrounding a swimming pool and pool terrace, yoga garden, private gymnasium, sauna and hot and cold plunge facilities. Landscaped retreats and pavilions provide additional places to sit away from the main recreation areas.

&nbsp;

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Higher in the building, a rooftop pavilion and private dining suite sit alongside resident lounge, barbecue and outdoor dining areas, opening towards panoramic views across the ocean, city and hinterland.

“Buyers are no longer just looking for an apartment, but a lifestyle where they can relax, reset, and enjoy a balanced way of living,” Hirsch &amp; Faigen Director of Sales Matt George said.

Interest to date has come from established owner-occupiers and interstate lifestyle purchasers, including buyers planning a future move to the Gold Coast. Many are coming from larger homes and want to reduce ongoing maintenance without giving up space for family and guests, privacy, two car spaces or the ability to entertain at home.

&nbsp;

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Much of that daily life can also take place beyond the building without requiring a drive. Kurrawa Beach and Pratten Park are an easy walk from Surf Parade, while Pacific Fair, Oracle Boulevard, The Oasis, restaurants, cafés, entertainment and public transport are also within walking distance.

The Eveleigh is Hirsch &amp; Faigen's fourth Gold Coast development since entering the market in 2021, following The Hemingway at Palm Beach, The Emerson at Kirra and Yves at Mermaid Beach. Each of the preceding projects sold out before completion.

“Broadbeach had been on our radar throughout our time operating on the Gold Coast,” the developer said. “Following our projects in Palm Beach, Kirra and Mermaid Beach, Broadbeach represented the natural next step for the business.”

The Surf Parade site brought together proximity to the beach, protected coastal outlooks and walkability to dining, shopping and recreation. Hirsch &amp; Faigen also identified the street as an emerging premium residential address, with enough separation from Broadbeach's busier destinations to retain a quieter environment at home.

The Eveleigh is now under construction by Maxcon, with completion forecast for mid-2028. Three-bedroom residences are currently available from $2.87 million.

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Joel Robinson

The Eveleigh brings house-like apartments to Broadbeach

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

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The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

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Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

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Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

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Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

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</main>

Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

2021 Property Forecast

<h2>What&rsquo;s the outlook for the Australian property markets for 2021 and beyond?</h2>

This is a common question people are asking now that our real estate markets are up and running again after virtual auctions and sight unseen purchases took place in 2020.

News from the biggest banks and Australian economic experts are predicting house price growth across almost every segment of the market.

Those I spoke to, and who have released forecasts of their own, are predicting property price growth of 12 per cent per cent - 20 per cent per cent across Australia this year. They expect the trend will almost certainly continue until the end of 2022.

Historically low-interest rates and FOMO (fear of missing out) have driven dwelling prices to record new highs &ndash; but we&rsquo;ve only recently surpassed previous 2017 peaks, which means double-digit price growth is on the horizon for many areas around Australia in 2021.

AMP Capital&#39;s Shane Oliver in particular said, &quot;the forces that have driven average Australian capital city property prices well above trend and well above price-to-income ratios seen in comparable countries over the last two decades may be at, or close to, having finally run their course.&quot;

We&rsquo;ve taken a look at a handful of the state capital property markets, how they&rsquo;ve performed since COVID hit, and what is being forecast to the end of 2021.

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Melbourne Forecast

While Melbourne property prices suffered because of its extended lockdown which severely impacted market activity in 2020, commencing in late October the Melbourne property market has rebounded strongly and is likely to deliver double digit price growth over the next 12 months.

Apartment prices were up just 0.4 per cent in July, contributing to a growth of 1.9 per cent for the quarter and 6.1 per cent in the year to date. The median apartment price in Melbourne is now $612,711.

Dwelling values overall, have increased 11.1 per cent in the past seven months, carried primarily by house price growth of 13.3 per cent in that period.

Property of every type remains in high demand across regional Victoria, especially those with easy access to the capital city with units seeing price growth of 15.7 per cent since January.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 16 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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Sydney Forecast

Extremely strong demand for property in Sydney&rsquo;s inner and middle-ring suburbs has led to Sydney house prices seeing double digit price growth, apartments however have taken longer to bounce back from covid.

Apartment prices are up 5.1 per cent over the quarter to be up 10 per cent in the year to date. Of that growth, 1.6 per cent happened in July with similar showings in February and March. Sydney&rsquo;s median unit value is now just over $810,000.

Interestingly enough it is Regional NSW that is seeing the strongest growth in the apartment sector with values shooting up 7 per cent this quarter to be up 14.5 per cent in the year to date.&nbsp;

It is worth noting that the greatest increase in property prices across NSW are seen in the priciest properties and this holds true in both the house and unit markets.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 19 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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Brisbane Forecast

Brisbane&rsquo;s house prices remained resilient over 2020 when other markets were impacted by the economic impact of COVID-19.

Now, moving forward, the Sunshine State will shine with strong demand for homes, particularly in lifestyle areas, likely to deliver double digit capital growth over the next 12 months.

Brisbane apartment values have increased 2.7 per cent over the quarter, in line with 6.2 per cent in the year to date.&nbsp;

Median apartment values have hit a high of $419,143.

Several of the economists I spoke to including Terry Ryder and Westpac&#39;s Bill Evans tipped housing prices to surge 20 per cent between 2022 and 2023.&nbsp;

Hotspotting&#39;s Terry Ryder clarified that 89 per cent of suburbs across Brisbane are seeing price growth and was tipping it to become Australia&#39;s property leader in the coming months and years.

It&rsquo;s also worth keeping in mind the Brisbane 2032 Olympics which will positively impact property values now and in the future.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 16 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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Canberra Forecast

Canberra&rsquo;s property market has been described by many as a &ldquo;quiet achiever&rdquo; with dwelling values reaching a new peak after growing 14.2 per cent over the last year.

Considering a large percentage of Canberra&#39;s population is employed by the government or industries supporting the public sector, Canberra&rsquo;s property market has not really felt the effects of the coronavirus recession like other capital cities did.

Due primarily to the ongoing apartment developments popping up across Canberra, like those from Geocon, unit values are up 1.3 per cent this month, making up a large chunk of the 2.8 per cent price growth this quarter. Apartment prices are up 6.5 per cent in the year to date.&nbsp;

Median apartment prices are currently $520,900.

Moving forward, the Canberra property market will continue to enjoy solid but slower property price growth, due primarily to slow population growth.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 17 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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Perth Forecast

Perth&rsquo;s long-awaited recovery was interrupted midway by COVID-19 but now Perth&rsquo;s housing market is back on a recovery trajectory, with home values posting a 7.5 per cent increase in the year to date.

Perth continues to be the most affordable capital city for houses in the country and this along with a record-low mortgage rate, improving economic conditions and government incentives has set it up for strong price growth this year.

This has also seen strong benefits for the apartment market which has been neck and neck with houses and even outperformed them this quarter, seeing 2.3 per cent growth compared to 1.5 per cent. Units were up 0.6 per cent for July, while houses saw growth of 0.3 per cent.

Apartment values are up 6.8 per cent since January achieving a median price of $404,257.

Overall, experts forecast property prices will rise roughly 19 per cent by 2021&#39;s end.

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<h2>How does my property impact the economy?</h2>

Real estate affects the economy because it makes up a large portion of individual and business wealth across economic sectors.

When real estate prices rise, wealth increases, so individuals and businesses are more likely to borrow and spend.

This can be seen in recent times with the average Australian savings account decreasing ~$7,000 from May to April as prices start to spike, however this can also be largely attributed to a reducing fear of COVID-19

When your home rises in value it increases the overall value of the economy. When real estate prices rise, wealth increases, so individuals and businesses are more likely to borrow and spend.

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<h2>What&rsquo;s causing the rise in home prices?</h2>

The primary factor causing the current boom in home prices are the continuing low mortgage rates and low interest rates.&nbsp;

Plus with Australia&rsquo;s excellent response to Covid 19 transmission seeing business reopening well and an increasing optimism for the economy there is much less fear around COVID-19.

With fewer homes for sale and first time home buyers and owner occupiers (those buying a property to live in it) dominating the market, they are currently the ones driving up property prices the most.&nbsp;

However as incentives like those from the HomeBuilder Grant and First Home Buyer Grant taper off it is expected that we will see a massive uptick in investor spending on property as they compete with owner occupiers and first home buyers over the super competitive interest rates.

It is predicted that Investors will drive the market well into 2022 and perhaps even 2023 depending on other conditions that influence interest rates like the cash rate.

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<h2>How does the Cash Rate influence the Interest Rates on my loan?</h2>

You often hear about it in the news, the monthly changes in the Cash Rate, but what is the cash rate and how does it affect you?

In essence the Cash Rate which the RBA meets on to decide once a month (currently 0.15 per cent) changes how much money banks can lend to you.

So when the cash rate is extremely low - close to zero - as it is currently, banks can and are encouraged to offer lower interest rates.&nbsp;

That means when the Cash Rate is low, Variable and Lock-In Interest Rates are low so your mortgage is cheaper!&nbsp;

This can save you hundreds to thousands of dollars a year depending on the value of your home.&nbsp;

With all that covered, every expert I talked to predicts that the cash rate will not decrease any time in the next 2 years and most experts expect the cash rate to increase in 2023 or later.

However three of the Big 4 banks have already started hiking interest rates across the range with Westpac the only one yet to start showing upward movement. It&#39;s a sign of the times with a number of other banking and loan institutions also increasing interest rates across a wide range of home loans.

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<h2>How does the government affect property prices?</h2>

Legislation is also a factor that can have a sizable impact on property demand and prices.

Tax credits, deductions, and subsidies are some of the ways the government can boost demand for real estate for as long as they are in place.

Some recent examples of this include the HomeBuilder Grant and the First Home Buyers Grant.

Being aware of current government incentives can help you determine changes in supply and demand and who and what will be affecting property prices.

An example of something to look out for is the percentage of properties purchased by FHB&#39;s (First Home Buyers) soaring to record highs recently. Although this still remains the case, it wont forever and certainly is not predicted to last into 2022.

What’s the outlook for the Australian property markets for 2021 and beyond?

jordan_55689

Economic Guide: Forecasting property prices and what affects property in 2021, 2022 and beyond

One of most bemusing factors of modern media is that people with appalling credentials at forecasting things are given a free ride by journalists.

In a sensible world, only credible people would have their forecasts held up before the public as something worthy of attention. In this utopia, journalists would check on the track record of forecasters before publishing their latest predictions.

On that basis, the American doomsday merchant Harry S Dent would never feature in Australia media. Every time he visits, which sadly is often, he forecasts a disastrous collapse in our property prices in the next 12 months.

Nothing like that ever happens but each time he makes this recurring forecast, he gets acres of free publicity. No doubt he will next time as well. The reality is that few journalists care too much if the prediction is outlandish or if the forecaster is someone who invariably gets it wrong.

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The priority is the clickbait headline. Anyone seeking cheap publicity can make a wackadoodle prediction &ndash; prices will fall 40% or young families will never be able to buy a home ever again - safe in the certainty that no one will check later to see how their forecast turned out and hold them to account.

Here are some recent forecasts or observations about real estate matters which received widespread media attention but are doomed to be proven off target:- &ldquo;Missing migrants&rdquo; will &ldquo;choke&rdquo; the housing rebound&rdquo; (The Australian): &ldquo;Weak population growth due to low immigration could drive a slowdown in the housing market&rdquo; (The Courier-Mail): Economists and other non-specialists continue to obsess over the absence of overseas migrants and the view that this should be impacting housing markets. It&rsquo;s very naughty of property markets not to collapse on cue.

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One of the factors they&rsquo;ve overlooked is that returning ex-pats have more than compensated for the lack of overseas migrants buying homes. And when international borders do re-open, I believe there will be an avalanche of migrants heading to Australia, creating a second wave of buyer demand which will prolong the current upcycle.

One of the proponents of the population furphy in recent media coverage is the nation&rsquo;s worst forecaster of real estate outcomes, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital. Keep in mind that 12-15 months ago he was forecasting a collapse in property prices. &ldquo;FHBs will be squeezed out of property market by investors&rdquo; (The Courier-Mail) and many others: Media outlets struggling for a headline can always resort to the hardy annual that young Australians are doomed to a lifetime of renting, with investors the villains of the piece. This has been a recurring theme in Australian media for decades. And yet the past 12 months has been the most prolific period ever for first-time buyers, helped by high levels of government assistance.

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Prices are rising across the nation and somewhat inevitably media has turned this into a crisis because FHBs, allegedly, will never again be able to afford home. Investors, as usual, are the scapegoats

The reality is that this dramatic escalation in prices in the past 6-12 months has been generated by owner-occupier buyers, including FHBs, with investors largely absent. &ldquo;House price growth tipped to slow despite the RBA cash rate call&rdquo; (Smart Property Investor); &ldquo;End of the property boom, experts say&rdquo; (realestate.com.au); &ldquo;68% of experts says prices will peak this year&rdquo; (various media); &ldquo;Is the housing boom about to bust?&rdquo; (The Age) and many others: There appears to be an unofficial competition to be the first the call the end of the boom, with the level of interest rates the prime influence.

When the national average growth in property values was slightly lower in April than in March (according to one research source), &ldquo;experts&rdquo; rushed to declare the end of the boom. But May produced another uplift in the rate of growth. Oops. Then, again, when the rate of national growth in June was less than May, there was another &ldquo;the boom is over&rdquo; chorus. All this was, rather foolishly, based on month-to-month data from one source. Media is very liberal with its use of the word &ldquo;expert&rdquo;.

Finder&rsquo;s regular surveys of &ldquo;experts&rdquo;, which includes the one that found that &ldquo;68% of experts&rdquo; expect prices to peak soon, do not include many people who deserve the title of expert with regards to real estate. Most of them are economists and academics &ndash; there&rsquo;s hardly a genuine expert among them.

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&ldquo;Almost a third predict rate rise over 12 months &ndash; ANZ survey&rdquo; (Mortgage Business); &ldquo;Why interest rates could be set to rise in 2022&rdquo; (Fairfax Media); &ldquo;ANZ tips early rate hike&rdquo; (The Australian) and many others: Media is obsessed with interest rates and there is daily speculation that the official rate will rise.

The Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe keeps repeating that he doesn&rsquo;t see an interest rate increase before 2024, but &ldquo;experts&rdquo; eager for media mileage persist with their speculation that the cash rate will go up much sooner. Apparently they believe Lowe is lying. I don&rsquo;t believe consumers share journalists&rsquo; fascination with the level of the official interest rate. For them, the day-to-day speculation is pointless and boring.

The implication in much of the coverage is that if the official interest does rise, the property boom will end. This is based on the mistaken belief that &ldquo;record low interest rates&rdquo; have caused the strong market, which is kindergarten analysis delivered by &ldquo;experts&rdquo;. There is also constant speculation about an intervention by APRA, although there is no indication that current lending standards would warrant it.

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&ldquo;Property buyer and developers should be quaking in their boot&rdquo; (AFR): This rather sensationalist article in the increasingly-tabloid Financial Review was based on the notion that &ldquo;sharply rising interest rates and falling population growth&rdquo; would precipitate a crash.

It was also predicated on the theory that we&rsquo;ve had a national property boom for the past 25 years and that FHBs can no longer afford to buy. Much of the rhetoric in the article was based on the thoughts of prolific media commentator&nbsp;Chris Richardson from Deloitte Access Economics, who loves an opportunity to deliver a pithy five-second grab for television and other media. Yes, another &ldquo;expert&rdquo;. This article was sensationalist and lacking in substance, like so much coverage of real estate.

In a sensible world, only credible people would have their forecasts held up before the public as something worthy of attention

terryryder

Don't believe every property forecast you read: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder 

EXPERT INSIGHT

Ahead of the definitive official read of the economy from the treasury in the budget on <a href="https://budget.gov.au/index.htm">Tuesday</a>, the Reserve Bank has given us two special insights into its own thinking in the space of 14 hours.

They suggest that (first) the economy is improving, and (second) the bank is not going to let up on driving that improvement, not for anything &mdash; including concern about climbing home prices &mdash; until it has pushed unemployment down and wage growth back up to where it believes it should be.

The first insight was in Deputy Governor Guy Debelle&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Shann Memorial Lecture</a> on Thursday night. The second was in Friday&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2021/may/pdf/statement-on-monetary-policy-2021-05.pdf">Statement on Monetary Policy</a>

Growth without inflation

The statement emphasised that the although the bank expects economic growth to bounce back fairly strongly, getting inflation back within the bank&rsquo;s 2-3% target band and getting wages growth up will take much longer

As the statement put it:

&quot;Despite the stronger outlook for output and the labour market, inflation and wages growth are expected to remain low, picking up only gradually.&quot;

On one measure just <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">1.1%</a>, the lowest on record, underlying inflation is to climb to 1.5% over the course of 2021 before gradually climbing to close to 2% by mid 2023.

It&rsquo;s well short of the bank&rsquo;s target of 2-3% which is only likely to be achieved with much higher wages growth driven by much deeper inroads into unemployment.\

Those inroads will be easier to achieve if COVID is firmly under control.

The bank explicitly linked its forecasts of an improving economy to an assumption that Australia&rsquo;s vaccine rollout accelerates in the second half of the year. It could have added to that (but didn&rsquo;t) the importance of getting purpose-built quarantine facilities up and running.

Its baseline forecast has economic growth of 4% in the year to June 2022 and 3% in the year to June 2023.

But there is a fairly wide range around its downside and upside scenarios.

Economic growth might be as low as 2.5% or as high as 5% in 2022 and as low as 2% and as high as 3% in 2023.

Similarly, the unemployment forecast is somewhere between 4.25% and 5.25% by June 2022 and in a very wide range of 3.75% and 5.5% by June 2023.

These forecasts produce below-target inflation forecasts of between 1.5% and 2% in June 2022 and 1.5% to 2.25% in June 2023.

What the bank will do to help drive the upside scenario, and what else will need to happen, was laid out by Debelle in Thursday night&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Shann Memorial Lecture</a>.

The Debelle Doctrine

Adjectives like &ldquo;seminal&rdquo; are bandied about liberally these days, but for me, Debelle&rsquo;s speech on <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Monetary Policy During COVID</a> was a masterpiece.

He began by outlining the suite of measures the bank introduced from the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. They involved

<ul>
	<li>
	cutting the cash rate to a record low of 0.25% and then cutting it again to 0.1%
	</li>
	<li>
	undertaking to not increase the cash rate target until the bank is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2&ndash;3% target band
	</li>
	<li>
	cutting the rate paid on private banks&rsquo; exchange settlement balances with the bank to 0.1% and then to 0.0%
	</li>
	<li>
	buying enough three-year government bonds to target a yield of 0.25%, later <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">0.1%</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	guaranteeing to buy $5 billion of five-year and ten-year state and Commonwealth week-in week-out <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">whatever the economic circumstances</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	buying bonds as needed to address the &ldquo;dysfunction&rdquo; in the bond market
	</li>
	<li>
	offering banks cheap lending finance through a new <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/term-funding-facility/overview.html">term funding facility</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	ensuring that the financial system has sufficient liquidity
	</li>
</ul>

Debelle methodically described how each of these measures are likely to flow through into economic activity.

That is, he articulated what economists call the &ldquo;transmission mechanism&rdquo; &mdash; how the measures work.

And then he delivered the setup for the punchline.

The tools the bank is using might affect all sorts of things, including house prices. But the bank plans to focus on just one thing &mdash; getting unemployment down until it gets inflation back up to its target band.

Then the punchline itself: the bank will do this even if it leads to higher house prices

<blockquote>
there are a number of tools that can be used to address the issue. But I do not think that monetary policy is one of the tools. Monetary policy is focussed on supporting the economic recovery and achieving its goals in terms of employment and inflation
</blockquote>

It was important to remember that while housing prices may not rise as fast without low interest rates, unemployment would definitely be materially higher without low interest rates.

Unemployment has serious consequences.

What it all means

The Debelle Doctrine is that the bank will focus on a narrow range of objectives, and will not be timid about using the tools in its arsenal to achieve them.

This may not be a seismic shift, but it is significant.

It gives the bank a much clearer focus; it gives others a much better way to judge how it is performing; and it makes clear that if the government is concerned about rising house prices, it&rsquo;ll have to do something itself (perhaps by tightening the tax rules governing capital gains and negative gearing).

Debelle produced a clear, precise, and authoritative statement of what the Reserve Bank can, should, and will do.

In a word, it was gubernatorial.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160171/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" u="" width="1" wkje2jqm7="" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-rba-wants-to-cut-unemployment-and-nothing-not-even-soaring-home-prices-will-stand-in-its-way-160171">original article</a>.

The RBA suggest that (first) the economy is improving, and (second) the bank is not going to let up on driving that improvement, not for anything

The RBA wants to cut unemployment, and not even soaring home prices will stand in its way: Richard Holden

Westpac now expect more of their recent 20 percent property price rise forecast to occur in 2021.

Westpac economists Bill Evans and Matthew Hassan kept their forecast for a 20 per cent gain in dwelling price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 but shifted it from thinking it would be evenly spread at 10 per cent gains expected in both years.

&ldquo;We now expect more of this rise to come in 2021, retaining the 20 per cent call overall but with a 15 per cent gain in 2021 slowing to 5 per cent in 2022,&rdquo; they said.

The initial forecast came in mid-February.

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The duo noted Australia&rsquo;s housing market is &quot;evolving quickly.&quot;

&quot;The strong upswing that emerged late last year has seen price growth run well ahead of expectations over the first few months of the year.

&quot;At the current cracking pace, our forecast 10% lift in prices for 2021 set down in February will be achieved by around mid-June.

&quot;Some moderation is likely, particularly as affordability becomes more stretched for owner occupiers.

&quot;However, a sudden loss of momentum near term looks unlikely, particularly with markets tight, price expectations bullish, investor activity showing signs of picking up and highly stimulatory financial conditions still firmly in place.

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&quot;Accordingly, we have marked up our near-term forecast for dwelling prices with a 15% gain now expected nationally in 2021.

&quot;This represents a pull-forward of the cumulative 20% rise we had already been forecasting over 2021 and 2022.

They noted the 20% &lsquo;limit&rsquo; reflects two key views: &quot;that deteriorating affordability will become a more binding constraint for owner occupiers as prices rise; and that regulators will intervene in the market in 2022 as investor activity lifts and credit growth reaches uncomfortable levels.&quot;

Westpac now expect more of their 20 percent rise forecast to occur in 2021

jchancellor

Westpac forecasts even stronger 2021 housing price rise

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<h2>OPINION</h2>

Having failed to call the turning point in the housing market, within a matter of just a few short months the expert commentators are out in force to demand cooling measures.

It's almost as if the commentary is continually running 3-6 months behind the reality, since the peak of the buying frenzy may already have passed.

Once there was a time when you'd let supply and demand determine prices, but now there are endless calls for tinkering to constantly fine-tune housing prices and activity in the country's most expensive city. 

Over the past couple of weeks final auction clearance rates have already moved a notch lower, and housing finance figures were down a bit last month too. 

And this weekend, despite a strong preliminary result in Sydney, drizzly Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate was well under 75 per cent, as more sellers bring stock to the market. 

<img alt="" height="404" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/frezny_1.jpg" width="640">

Source: Domain

Something I've noticed over the years is that you'll often get a much better feel for what's going on from listening to mortgage brokers, buyer's agents, or auctioneers (and selling agents when...at least when they aren't in sales mode!), much more so than from analysts and investment bankers poring over historic data from a few months earlier. 

Straight from the auction coalface...

<img alt="" height="513" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/frezny_2.jpg" width="640">

Detached house building approvals have soared to all-time highs this year, so we can expect to see a corresponding uplift in new dwelling supply in H2 2021.

And with the vaccine rollout floundering, there's almost no immigration to soak it up, so this will act as a natural coolant. 

<img alt="" height="371" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/frezny_3.jpg" width="640">

Therefore it won't be a surprise to see the frenzy pass as more vendors look to cash out later in the year, which will almost certainly calm things down. 

PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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Over the past couple of weeks final auction clearance rates have already moved a notch lower, and housing finance figures were down a bit last month too. 

pwargent

Housing buying frenzy may have passed: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
The Reserve Bank has warned there was a risk that low interest rates could lead to "over-exuberence" with asset prices, including in the housing market.

The RBA suggested Australian banks' lending standards remained prudent and that households, businesses and banks were well-placed to deal with any weakening economic conditions.

But the central bank warned of a risk that assets could be pushed beyond their fundamental value.

"A sustained period of rising asset prices may lead to over-exuberance ... with increased risk-taking and leverage in an environment of accommodative financial conditions," it noted in its biannual financial stability review, released on Friday

“A correction in asset prices, if borrowers’ income were to fall and so they defaulted on debt repayments, would expose lenders to large losses on the increased debt, particularly if the quality of that debt had been eroded.”

The review also noted households and businesses that derive their incomes from sectors most heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic face an elevated risk of repayment difficulties "if their buffers prove to be insufficient.” 

The RBA said these risks were greatest for leveraged assets, including housing, which thereby meant it was crucial banks did not cut credit standards.

"[In this environment] it is particularly important that there is no excessive risk-taking by the financial sector," the RBA said.

"Even if lenders do not weaken their own settings, increased risk-taking by optimistic borrowers could see a deterioration in the average quality of new lending."

"This would weaken the resilience of businesses and households, and so the financial system, to future shocks," the RBA concluded.
</body></html>

The RBA suggested that Australian banks' lending standards remained prudent

RBA warns on "over exuberance" in home buying

<html><body>
Australian housing prices are set to soar 17 per cent across all the capital cities this year, ANZ economists have forecast.

Sydney and Perth housing prices are forecast to jump 19 per cent in 2021, followed by Hobart which could see an 18 per cent rise.

Melbourne and Brisbane could see 16 per cent growth and Adelaide up 13 per cent, the ANZ research found. 

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ANZ see the first half of 2021 as likely to be stronger than the second half given the end of government programs like JobKeeper and HomeBuilder, and an emerging lift in fixed mortgage rates.

“What we’ve seen is a combination of quite strong demand and relatively low supply,” ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett told Domain.

Emmett expects the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) will introduce macroprudential measures to slow house price growth into 2022.

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Last November ANZ previously forecast a 9 per cent national rise this year when housing prices in Perth were tipped to jump 12 per cent, Brisbane 9.5 per cent and Hobart 9.4 per cent. Sydney prices were expected to rise 8.8 per cent with Melbourne prices lagging with 7.8 per cent growth.

ANZ says the annual price growth will slow to 6 per cent in 2022.

At this time last year it was tipped by ANZ that prices would fall 10.
</body></html>

Australian housing prices are set to soar 17 per cent across all the capital cities this year, ANZ economists have forecast.


ANZ tips strongest real estate price growth for Sydney and Perth

<html><body>Perth’s residential market is tipped to record double digit growth for the first time in more than a decade to lead the nation’s housing recovery in 2021. 

CBRE’s 2021 Australia Real Estate Market Outlook Report predicts Perth’s residential market to be the nation’s front runner.

It tips Perth house prices expected to grow between 9%-12% and unit prices to lift 5%-7% in 2021. 

“A return to positive interstate migration, accompanied by a solid resources sector outlook, is helping propel Perth’s housing market recovery ahead of the nation," CBRE’s head of residential research, Craig Godber, said.

“Supply also remains tight, with vacancy already sub-1% which is leading to strong rental growth and providing attractive opportunities for investment in 2021.” 

CBRE’s latest forecasts show that Brisbane and Sydney’s residential markets are also poised for a rebound in prices in 2021. 

Sydney is expected to see house price growth of between 7%-10%, while units will experience a 0%-3% rise. 

Growth of 7%-10% is forecast for Brisbane’s housing market and units are on track to record a 3%-5% value uplift. 

The report predicts 5%-7% growth for both Adelaide and Canberra’s housing markets, with the former expecting a 3%-5% rise in unit prices and the latter tracking an uplift of 0%-3% for units. 

A longer recovery is forecast for Melbourne, with house prices expected to lift 3%-5% in 2021 but no increases for its unit values. 

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The CBRE report shows regional value growth outpaced metropolitan values in all states, except Western Australia, during 2020. 

Perth's residential tipped to be 2021's strongest capital city market

<html><body>
Here’s how you spot a real estate charlatan, someone who likes to present themselves as a real estate expert but who in reality knows nothing worth hearing …

- They speak of Australia as a single property market; and/or

- They attribute price growth to “record low interest rates”

Mostly these pretenders are economists. I would remind you of a much-quoted definition of an economist: Someone who can tell you tomorrow why their predictions yesterday didn’t come true today.

We have learnt over the years, but particularly in 2020, that the bigger the name and the media profile, the worse they are at analysing residential real estate and forecasting outcomes.

Cast your minds back to the predictions in March/April 2020 from senior economists employed by the major banks, big institutions like AMP and even those working for specialist real estate research entities. And then again later in the year when the so-called September Cliff was proclaimed an impending disaster.

There was a chorus of predictions of a long recession, with double-digit unemployment and real estate values collapsing. How spectacularly wrong they were. Only the specialist property analysts got it right.

But the appalling track record of economists with real estate analysis stretches back years and includes the alarmist predictions about property prices in the wake of the GFC – also proven to be spectacularly wrong. 

It’s remarkable that media continues to give these charlatans airplay. Credibility, it seems, is optional, so long as you have “economist” in your title.

So the nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020 and most of them are now forecasting big price growth this year. You will note that what they are predicting is already happening, highlighting another characteristic of this bloated and overblown profession: predicting the recent past.

And how do they explain the gathering boom? Record low interest rates!

God help us. The lack of expertise among the talking heads who clutter up the airways with their simplistic analysis is quite breathtaking.

As we all know, we’ve had ultra-low interest rates for years. Very little has changed in that regard to explain the recent uplift in sales activity. When Sydney and Melbourne were having their real estate boom from 2013 to 2017-ish, economists generally explained the price rises with “record low interest rates”. They had no response to the obvious question at the time: how come prices in Perth and Darwin were falling, while Canberra, Brisbane and Adelaide were stagnating?

The “low interest rates = property boom” theory also fails to explain why the last two genuine nationwide property booms, in the late 1980s and in the early years of this century, both occurred during periods of very high and rising interest rates.

My view, strongly, is that record low interest rates do not explain what’s happening in real estate across most of Australia.

The growth is being fueled by multiple factors, including …

- A stronger-than-expected economy

- Lower-than-predicted unemployment

- State and federal stimulus measures

- The build-up of savings during the pandemic period

- People in lockdown reviewing their life choices

- Ultra-low vacancies, putting upward pressures on rents and prices

- Pent-up demand, leading to rising sales activity

- Low listings levels, relative to rising buyer demand

- The Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle trend, which is hugely influential

- Increased spending on major new infrastructure

- The revival of the resources sector

- The return of ex-pat Australians in large numbers

- The belated entry of investors to compete with owner-occupiers

-Perceptions about the safety and solidity of bricks &amp; mortar in times of uncertainty

-The growing prevalence of e-commerce and its impact on industrial property, which has repercussions for residential demand

- Access to low-cost finance

And you’ll notice that I mention low interest rates as just one of 16 different factors – and I mention it last and definitely least.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au

ryder@hotspotting.com.au

twitter.com/hotspotting
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The nation’s gaggle of chattering economists has been compelled to admit they got it wrong in 2020

Economists got real estate wrong in 2020: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
A return of investors to the market, coupled with a lack of listings, is tipped to increase property prices throughout Australia in 2021. 
CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless predicts property price increases of between 7 per cent and 10 per cent in 2021, with the smaller capital cities tipped to benefit the most. 
Mr Lawless said Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth were most likely to experience the strongest price growth this year. 
He said Sydney and Melbourne property price growth is not expected to be at the same level and it would be more concentrated in the suburban housing market rather than the inner-city apartment market. 
Mr Lawless said a lack of listings would continue to drive the property market within the next few months. 
“While listings started to lift at the end of 2020, they are still 21 per cent lower than at the same time the previous year,” he said. 
“I think it will remain subdued throughout January and maybe into February. My guess is demand will continue to outweigh supply and that will be one of the recipes for higher prices. Investors will become more active in 2021.” 
His predictions are backed by a national survey done on behalf of Custodian which found 19 per cent of people who already owned an investment property planned to buy in 2021, while 6 per cent of respondents had decided they would buy their first investment property in 2021. 
It found 22 per cent of investors had put off buying an investment property in 2020 because of COVID. 
Mr Lawless said while 2020 had been a volatile year it was more in relation to transaction numbers rather than a drop in property prices. 
“The number of properties selling nationally fell 40 per cent in April, but they did start to lift in the second half of 2020,” he said. 
“Dwelling values were pretty resilient, there were fewer buyers and also fewer sellers. 
“Peak to trough values fell only about two per cent nationally and bounced back quite quickly.”

John Fitzgerald, the chief executive of Custodian, said many people had over-estimated how significantly COVID was going to impact the economy. 
“If the COVID pandemic has shown us anything it is that property can be a safe investment, but you need to be careful about what type of property you invest in,” Mr Fitzgerald said. 
“We recommend investment in land because it appreciates in value. Of course, many investors need to build something on that land to help them pay down their loan, that’s why we recommend building a new house in areas of high population growth and with significant amenity and jobs nodes nearby.” 
Investor numbers were at record lows with only about 24 per cent of mortgage demand coming from investors when normally it would account for a third of loans. 
Mr Lawless said investors were motivated by positive cash flow and growing capital gains and that was why smaller cities such as Adelaide and Brisbane would be the focus of demand this year. 
They were more affordable than Sydney and Melbourne and had not experienced the downwards pressure from weakening rental markets that Melbourne and Sydney had. 
“We will see buyer numbers remaining very high because of low interest rates and confidence, providing we continue to keep COVID under control. What we don’t know is how much stock will be added to market. My guess is it will be not much different from second half of 2020,” Mr Lawless said.
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CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless predicts property price increases of between 7 per cent and 10 per cent in 2021

2021 Property Forecast

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