The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.5%, in line with analysts’ predictions. 
It is the third month in a row the Bank has left rates unchanged in a 53-year low.
The next RBA Board Meeting is on December 3. 
The Bank has previously cut rates in August 2013, May 2013, December 2012, October 2012, June 2012, May 2012, November 2011 and December 2011.
RP Data’s Tim Lawless says the current rate setting is working as intended, by encouraging more buyers into the housing market, therefore stimulating new housing construction.
“Transaction numbers are close to 20% higher compared with a year ago and dwelling values across our combined capitals index have risen by 7.9% over the past twelve months,” Lawless says.
“The RBA has, on several occasions now, stated they are comfortable with the level of capital gains in the housing market; in fact the current rate of growth is well below the highs achieved over previous growth cycles and dwelling values across every capital city apart from Sydney remain below their previous peaks.”
“The improvement in housing market sentiment has flown through to improved developer sentiment as well, with the number of dwelling approvals showing a marked improvement over recent months,” he says.
“In our view, the RBA will remain vigilant on the housing market, particular the Sydney and Melbourne housing market where values are rising at a faster rate than other cities," Lawless says.
RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in his <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/rba-governor-glenn-stevens-november-statement/2013110566176?utm_source=po&amp;utm_medium=aida&amp;utm_campaign=news" target="_blank">November statement</a> that global financial conditions have remained "accommodative". 
"Volatility in financial markets has abated recently. Long-term interest rates remain very low and there is ample funding available for creditworthy borrowers," Stevens said. 
Nationally, he notes the economy has been growing "a bit below trend" thus far into the year. This is expected to continue as the Australian economy adjusts to the lower levels of mining investment. 
In addition, he added that the pace of borrowing has remained "relatively subdued", though there have been signs of increased demand in financing for households. 
"Housing and equity markets have strengthened further, trends which should in time be supportive of investment," Stevens said.
The Board judged at today's meeting that the current monetary policy is appropriate.
"The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target," he said.
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dleow-BGaNPbHWyK

RBA leaves rates on hold at Cup Day meeting

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Overall levels of home ownership are on a gradual decline in Australia, but the declines are sharp among younger households and people on low incomes. Generous government tax breaks for property investors are contributing to this decline in home ownership and an increasingly unequal housing market. Investors benefit from a 50% discount on capital gains tax (at a cost to the government’s budget of $4.4 billion per year) and negative gearing (costing $2.4 billion a year). Grattan Institute’s latest report, <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/publications/reports/post/renovating-housing-policy/" target="_blank">Renovating housing policy</a>, finds that these tax breaks not only fail to produce new housing, they are leading investors to bid up the prices of existing housing because of the tax benefits on offer. More first home buyers are locked out of the market as a result.
Grattan’s report proposes that the Commonwealth gradually ease these tax breaks, in conjunction with steps that stimulate new housing supply. These changes, outlined in the 2011 Grattan reports <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/publications/reports/post/the-housing-we-d-choose/" target="_blank">The housing we’d choose</a> and <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/publications/reports/post/getting-the-housing-we-want/" target="_blank">Getting the housing we want</a>, include reforming state and local planning systems so residents, developers, governments and local councils can achieve a long-term, negotiated approach to development.
But Grattan’s reform proposals to produce more housing and bring home ownership within the grasp of more Australians prompted a spirited defence of the status quo last week. An article by Nicola Trotman – “<a href="/news">Should negative gearing be abolished?</a>”, published in Crikey and Property Observer – quotes real estate industry players whose views are in part based on two myths.
Peter Bushby from the Real Estate Institute of Australia claims that tax concessions for investors help provide rental accommodation. But only 5% of money loaned for investment in housing in Australia goes toward building new housing. 95% goes to bidding up the price of existing housing. If new houses aren’t getting built, then one more taxpayer-subsidised investment property means one less owner-occupied home.
Historically low rental vacancy rates also show there is a shortage of rental properties, according to, among others, the Reserve Bank. And rents have gone up much more quickly than average wages over the last decade. If a discounted rate of capital gains tax and negative gearing are supposed to be getting new housing built, they’re doing a terrible job.
Both Bushby and Terry Ryder, of hotspotting.com.au, also state that restricting negative gearing in the mid-1980s caused the rental housing market to stall. Not true. In the two years from September 1985 in which negative gearing was restricted, lending for housing investment increased by 42%. Only two cities – Sydney and Perth – experienced increased growth in rents over this period, despite restrictions on negative gearing applying nationwide. And Sydney and Perth had been experiencing unusually low vacancy rates prior to the policy change. Growth in rents actually slowed in Melbourne, and other capital cities were stable.
Reform of tax concessions for property investors such as discounted capital gains tax and negative gearing won’t – and shouldn’t – happen overnight. But it’s important to be clear and honest about the consequences of these policies.
For most of the 1980s, a home buyer needed to save around a full year’s average income as a deposit for median priced housing. Now the corresponding deposit is roughly four times average annual income. Home ownership is heading out of reach for increasing numbers of Australians, and as Grattan’s report shows, tax breaks for property investors have contributed to the problem.
 
<hr>
 Jane-Frances Kelly is cities program director for the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>.
 
Paul Donegan is senior associate, cities for the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/" target="_blank">Grattan Institute</a>. 
 
 
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Generous investor tax breaks contributing to unequal housing market

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Mortgage broker AFG had its biggest month ever in October, processing more than $4 billion in home loans.
The figure is 12% greater than the $3.624 billion processed the month before, which was itself a record.
The biggest increase in activity was recorded in South Australia, up 19%  for the month, followed by Victoria at 18.8%, Queensland at 11.8%, Sydney at 10.9% and last Perth at 5%.
“Low rates and intense competition amongst lenders are making the home loan market not only more attractive, but also more complex. Consumers are increasingly turning to brokers to help locate the overall package best suited to them,” says AFG’s Mark Hewitt.
Fixed home loans accounted for 27.7% of all home loans processed.
First home buyers accounted for 23% of loans in WA, 16% in SA, 11% in Victoria, 6% in Queensland and 4% in NSW.
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Mortgage broker AFG has biggest month ever, but NSW first home buyers AWOL

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Westpac chief Bill Evans anticipates a continuing stop-start recovery for the housing market.
He says house prices have only just returned their 2010 peaks as income levels increased 10% and says further recovery will be uneven.
"We expect Australia's housing recovery to continue to be a 'stop-start' and uneven one," Evans says in a weekly update.
“There are headwinds that are yet to fully impact with some markets facing increases in new dwelling supply (VIC, WA) and the mining downturn to play through fully to housing (WA, QLD).” 
He says the housing market has experienced a diverse performance best illustrated by changes in six month annualised price increases compared to three months ago - Sydney prices are up by 14.7% compared to 8.2% in July, Melbourne is up 4.5% v 5.1% in July; Perth is up 6.8% v 10.5%; Brisbane is up 1.7% v 1.2%; and Adelaide is up 0.2% v 2.4%.
Westpac expects households will be more restrained with their balance sheets with a reluctance to increase debt.
And they will be more cautious about job security which would impact first home buyers and upgraders.
On Friday the RBA will release its monetary statement policy which will give an indication of its economic forecast.
Evans says if the RBA maintains its forecast of 2.5% GDP growth for the year to June 2014 it will effectively be confirming it expects growth in the first half of 2014 to be stuck at a below trend annual pace of 2.5%.
And if the RBA maintains its expectations of 2.5% to 3.5% growth for the year to December 2014 it will effectively be forecasting a lift in growth pace in the second half of 2014 to a 3.6% annualised pace.
“That is a big call – the growth pace lifting from a 2.5% annualised pace in the first half of 2014 to a 3.6% annualised pace in the second half,” Evans says.
“Our forecast is for a more reasonable 3% annualised pace in the second half of next year. Nevertheless we expect the Bank will maintain a somewhat upbeat outlook.”
Westpac expects the RBA to maintain its view that the economy is growing at sub-trend pace and will continue to do so to mid-2014.
“We expect that over the course of the next few months it will have to temper that bullish view on the second half of 2014 and see the need for more policy support to arrest the current sub trend growth momentum,” Evans says.
Westpac is more than confident the RBA will keep rates unchanged.
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Westpac's Bill Evans predicts stop-start housing recovery

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AMP Capital Markets chief economist Shane Oliver expects the Reserve Bank to leave interest rates on hold today, with some positives – such as HIA figures showing an improvement in the housing market and in new home sales - pointing to a rise in market confidence.
"There are signs the jobs market might be bottoming out, yet CPI inflation figures are a bit higher than expected - although they are in the mid-point of the target range," he said.
"There’s not enough evidence for a cut so the reserve will sit on its hands next week. It’s more likely we’ve seen the bottom of the rate cuts cycle and, in a year’s time, we may be going the other way. The housing industry is a good bellwether for all this and, with it rising, the scene looks a whole lot better."
Oliver said variable interest rates took their lead from the cash rate whereas fixed rates were affected by other factors, such as Commonwealth government bonds, which have been rising over the past year to just over 4% now. This has increased the banks’ long-term borrowing costs.
He said it was always the case that historically low interest rates "were never going to be sustained". As long term bond rates go up, banks lending at fixed rates over, say, three years would be faced with the prospect of being caught by a rise in the official cash rate, pushing up interest rates and making their loans unprofitable.
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Shane Oliver predicts RBA to leave interest rates on hold

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First time mortgage borrowers are tiring of being told that these are the cheapest interest rates they’ll ever see. More important is how to ensure you get a loan. Here are my top tips:
<ol>
<li>
Have a clear goal: Use online calculators to see what you need to save and how much the repayments will be.
</li>
<li>
Have a budget and a plan: you need a deposit and to reduce your weekly outgoings. You need to do this for at least six months.
</li>
<li>
Save a deposit: bigger is better.
</li>
<li>
Show consistent savings: lenders want to see evidence of good financial management, rather than windfalls. Use a separate savings account to make regular deposits and few withdraws.
</li>
<li>
Have stable and consistent income: lenders are generally less comfortable lending to someone who has had numerous jobs or long gaps between employment.
</li>
<li>
If you do change jobs, stay in the same field and show increased income. Apply for your mortgage before changing employers or starting a business.
</li>
<li>
Understand your budget: lenders will want to know your gross income, and your financial and living expenses to gauge your disposable income.
</li>
<li>
Know that most lenders credit-score you to get an idea of how much risk you pose. So you must minimise credit enquiries, job changes and changes of address. Next year Australia gets a credit reporting system where creditors disclose late payments, not just defaults.
</li>
<li>
Have a stable rental history and minimise moving houses or apartments.
</li>
<li>
Lower your limits on credit cards: every $1 of credit card limit stops you borrowing up to $5 of home loan. Reduce credit cards to one, and reduce that card’s limit to what you use. Pay-off and cancel the credit card if you can.
</li>
<li>
Stop applying for credit/store cards: it suggests you live outside your means.
</li>
<li>
Don’t take ‘interest free period’ store finance.
</li>
<li>
Ensure your bank accounts are in order. No late payments, over-limits, or overdraws. Lenders generally check or require account statements for the last three to six months when assessing your loan application.
</li>
<li>
Know your credit report: most lenders credit-score you on the Veda system which shows your current and past credit activity. You can buy your Veda credit file at <a href="https://www.mycreditfile.com.au/" target="_blank">www.mycreditfile.com.au</a>.
</li>
<li>
If you’re self-employed, get your taxes done before applying and make sure there’s no tax owing on your ATO account.
</li>
<li>
Reduce overheads: fancy car leases, big smart phone plans and cable TV charges can reduce your net income and affect your serviceability.
</li>
<li>
Move in with mum and dad if you can, but only if you’re going to save!
</li>
<li>
Talk to a broker: if you’re worried about your credit score and serviceability, a broker can get you prepared pre-application.
</li>
<li>
Don’t apply for too many mortgages. This affects your credit scoring.
</li>
<li>
Don’t lie to lenders, especially about other loans or credit cards.
</li>
</ol>
<ol start="8"></ol>
The basics always apply to mortgages. You need a deposit big enough to have 20% equity, and cover stamp duty and conveyancing. And you need to show you can service the loan. This is a 25-year debt, so take your time and get your preparation right.

<hr>
Mark Bouris is executive chairman of <a target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="https://www.ybr.com.au/">Yellow Brick Road</a>, a financial services company offering home loans, financial planning, accounting and tax, and insurance.
You can contact Mark on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/markbouris" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
 
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The 20 tips to ensure you get your loan

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A lifting of fixed-term mortgage rates by the big four banks has startled the market.
Pre-empting the Reserve Bank’s regular monthly meeting next Tuesday, the Commonwealth Bank, NAB, ANZ and Westpac each raised some of their rates, possibly in response to higher borrowing costs on the wholesale market.
The Commonwealth’s three-year fixed term rate remains steady at 5.09%, while its four-year fixed rate rose 0.20% to 5.74% and its five-year fixed rate also rose 0.20% to 5.84%.
Westpac’s three-year term rose yesterday from 4.99% to 5.19% while its four-year fixed rate is steady at 5.49% and its five-year fixed rate is also steady at 5.79%.
National Australia Bank lifted its fixed term rates on Monday: Three years fixed rose 0.20% to 5.19%; four-years fixed is steady at 5.64% and five-years fixed rose 0.24% to 5.79%.
The ANZ raised its three-year fixed rate from 5.14% to 5.34% on Friday. It did not change its four or five-year fixed rates. A staffer said rates "could go up or down depending on what’s going on in the market".
Neither IngDirect, Bankwest, St George or UBank had made any changes, staffmembers said.
Buyer’s advocate Todd Hunter, of the wHere Group, said he had put out a notice to alert his clients to the rises, which may have been prompted by the banks "Probably not being able to find money as cheap anymore".
"This is probably the right time to fix," he added, saying rates – even after the rises – are "still looking very attractive". He recently locked in his loans at 4.99%.
"Money is still cheap and anything under 5.5% is extremely low and you’ll be doing well."
Although he "can’t foresee any dramatic movements in the variable rate", Hunter admitted he is not sure what the market is going to do next. "It’s safer to wait until after Tuesday’s meeting. But if the big four go up it’s a sure bet the smaller banks and building societies will follow."
One thing’s for sure, if the Reserve Bank on Tuesday does cut mortgage rates, the banks which raised their rates will look greedy, even though fixed rates are usually higher than variable rates.
Hunter said average variable rates over the past 10-15 years were in the mid-sixes "although there have been plenty of ups and downs in the meantime".
One reason the Reserve Bank may hold rates is concern over unemployment, currently sitting at 5.6%  according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The participation rate, which is the proportion of people in work or looking for work, fell to 64.9%, the lowest level since November 2006.        
Jessica Darnborough, of Mortgage Choice, said she expected a few more rate movements across the board but "only slightly" and not in November.
"The yield curve was at historic lows recently but it’s now on the way back up so we may see more movements in the fixed arena."
Although not into "crystal ball gazing" Darnborough said she would be surprised if the RBA raised rates on Tuesday. However, fixed rates are affected by other external factors and she sees a "little bit of a trend" for upward movements in that category.
Optimistically, she said: "The banks are still competing for market share, so we may see downward movements against trend."
The banks’ three-year fixed term is said to be the most popular.
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Big four banks lift rates, startle the market

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It occurred to me that while most people seem to have an opinion on the negative gearing debate (usually based upon their current status as a landlord, homeowner or renter, which is natural enough) few seem have a grasp of what the numbers involved might look like for an individual taxpayer.
In fact, when numbers are involved in almost any debate the eyes of a fair percentage of people slowly glaze over before you are met with a blank stare, and, if you are particularly unfortunate, some drool. Below are some actual examples (I've rounded off the numbers for the sake of simplicity).
1 - Positive gearing - large deposit
Although property gurus try to sell the idea that positively geared property - where the rental income covers all costs of ownership - is somehow mystical and complicated, it's actually a simple concept which is often largely related to how a deal is financed. An institutional residential fund might undertake a major renovation or subdivision and renegotiate leases in order to achieve the outcome, but there are much simpler ways in which a private investor might secure a positively geared property.
One is to use a very large deposit. Here are is an actual example of a $200,000 regional one-bedroom unit which generates a 6.25% rental yield. The purchaser uses a sizeable 50% deposit and an interest only mortgage fixed at a rate of 5%, and thus receives an income each year.
Rental income - 6.25% yield                     $12,500
Mortgage - interest only at 5%                 $(5,000)
Repairs, management, strata fees etc    $(3,250)
Net cash flow per annum                             $4,250
The main downside to this approach is that the landlord needs a very large deposit (when the use of leverage is diminished so too are the projected returns, and thus residential property becomes considerably less appealing as an investment).
Further, regional properties have historically achieved significantly lower capital growth rates, which accounts for the higher percentage rental yield. Yes, of course, over any given time period capital growth might be solid, but over the long term capital growth rates tend to be highest where the demand is strongest, a real estate trend that is easy to witness all over the globe.
2 - Positive gearing - cheap cost of capital
When mortgages rates are cheap then it's also easily possible to positively gear property. Here's a property bought for £200,000, a 1 bedroom flat in London using a 25% deposit and which generates a 5.2% yield. Mortgage rates are very cheap in Britain and therefore the net cash flow before tax in this example is instantly positive, even before any allowances which might be claimable on furnished properties.
Rental income - 5.2% yield                                   £10,400
Mortgage - interest only @ 3.5%                       £(6,125)
Repairs, management, service charge etc     £(3,000)
Net cash flow before tax per annum                 £1,275
3- Positive cash flow in Australia
In Australia, we have the so-termed negative gearing tax legislation whereby certain losses on investment property can be offset against other forms of income on an individual's tax return. In some circumstances this can turn a cash flow loss into am effective positive cash flow after depreciation allowances and associated tax savings are factored in.
Let's use the regional one-bedroom unit property in example one again, but this time the buyer has only used a 10% deposit and has claimed depreciation allowances on the property of $2,000. The mortgage remains an interest only product at a rate of 5%.
Rental income - 6.25% yield                     $12,500
Mortgage - interest only at 5%                 $(9,500)
Repairs, management, strata fees etc    $(3,250)
Net cash flow per annum                             $(250)
Add back allowances                                     $(2,000)
Loss on tax return                                          $(2,250)
Tax saving at 37% marginal rate              $833
Cash flow after tax                                          $533
In this instance, the depreciation allowance and the prevailing tax rules have turned a small net loss into a small positive cash flow, assuming that the taxpayer is paying PAYG income tax at the 37% marginal rate (I've disregarded the 1.5% Medicare levy here).
4 - Negatively geared property
OK, so onto an example of a typical negatively geared property as things stand today. In this example, a higher rate taxpayer has bought a $650,000, two-bedroom capital city property, which generates a 5% yield, using a 10% deposit. The mortgage is once again interest only at 5%.
Rental income - 5% yield                                $32,500
Mortgage - interest only at 5%                     $(29,250)
Repairs, management, strata fees etc       $(10,000)
Net cash flow per annum                                $(6,750)
Add back depreciation                                    $(3,000)
Loss on tax return                                             $(9,750)
Tax saving at 45% marginal rate                  $4,388
Cash flow after tax                                              $(2,363)
5 - Malinvestment?
So, what's the big deal, you may ask? In the example above, the taxpayer made a net cash flow loss - although not a chronic one - and saved a bit of tax. So what?
Well, one issue is that we currently have a cash rate of 2.50% which is sitting at around 50 year lows. What happens if mortgage rates are at, say, 10%, and a higher rate taxpayer buys an expensive property which generates only a low yield, predominantly for the purposes of saving tax?
This is not an actual example, so we can perm any numbers we like here. But let's use this example of a $1 million apartment property which generates a weak 3% rental yield, has high other strata and holding costs and only has a small amount of depreciation claimable. It's financed at some time in the future using an 10% deposit and an interest only mortgage at a rate of, say, 10% per annum.
Rental income - 3% yield                               $30,000
Mortgage - interest only at 10%                 $(90,000)
Repairs, management, strata fees etc       $(20,000)
Net cash flow per annum                                $(80,000)
Add back depreciation                                     $(2,000)
Loss on tax return                                              $(82,000)
Tax saving at 45% marginal rate                   $(36,900)
Cash flow after tax                                              $(43,100)
Arguably the landlord is making this purchase largely for the purposes of saving tax, for without the negative gearing rulings the property would generate a huge annual cash flow loss, as much as $80,000 in year one. Although the property will generate a positive cash flow eventually (as rental income tends to increase over time in an inflationary economy) this could take many, many years to eventuate and thus the owner is largely speculating on capital gains rather than the growing income stream.
Will negative gearing tax legislation be abolished?
The debate rumbles on, with both sides tending to highlight the issues which suit their own side of the argument. When the rules were amended and losses quarantined in 1985 for a short period of time, the REIA argues that "rents rose 37% across Australia and 57% in Sydney".
Those in favour of scrapping the legislation retort that if you deflate rental increases by the CPI (inflation) rate then the increases were only real and significant in Sydney and Perth. A fair point, although the 'basket' of CPI goods itself includes rental costs, so to some extent that could be something of a circular argument. In any case, renters don't adjust rent increases (or the cost of anything else for that matter) for CPI; they simply look at their actual rent payments.
What happened in 1985 is less relevant than might happen today if losses were once again quarantined. Intuition tells me that landlords would use the shift to the new environment as an excuse to attempt to jack up rents immediately. Whether or not they would be successful in so doing is harder to judge. Common sense dictates that the odds of 'success' for the landlord would be higher where rental vacancy rates are low, such as in certain middle-ring Sydney suburbs or in Darwin, and lower where there is an over-supply of stock such as in Melbourne's Docklands or in a number of regional areas.
We should also be wary of trying to rewrite history. Read books which touch on the subject written in the first half of the 1990s and the increase in Sydney and Perth rents is only cited as a secondary reason for the reinstatement of the negative gearing rules. The principal reason cited was a jump in housing waiting lists (in New South Wales the numbers increased "from under $110,000 to above $140,000" during the period for which the rules were changed, a worrying "trend which was immediately reversed" upon their reinstatement.
It's also possibly an over-simplification to say that governments will simply save dollars by scrapping the existing rules. I believe his numbers on housing lists may be inaccurate ("the waiting lists for public housing increased by 50% in 1985") but tax accountant Ed Chan highlights why he believes government costs and impacts on the wider economy would escalate if more public housing was required <a href="https://www.chan-naylor.com.au/getting-rid-of-negative-gearing-and-private-school/" target="_blank">in this article here</a>.
Conclusion
Clearly from 1987 to date the government has steered away from the risk of crashing the housing market (and the Aussie economy?) by again altering the tax legislation, but that does not mean that it will never do so. Personally, I think it's unrealistic to expect that the rules will be amended in one fell swoop due to the potentially destabilising effect: it's hard to envisage risk-averse politicians taking that chance.
The most sensible viewpoints I've heard are from property expert Catherine Cashmore, who suggests that the existing rules might be slowly unpicked while other strategies are implemented to attack Australia's supply-side issues - <a href="/news">take a read here</a>. There are a number of ways in which this might be kick-started - one might be to limit the number of properties which a landlord can claim losses on.
"I have no doubt if the policy were removed, or even scaled down, there would be less demand for established stock and a subsequent dampening in prices.  I agree that a sudden and complete retraction of negative gearing in its current form would be foolish - favouring a slow wind-down whilst other policies are implemented such as strategies to aid development and increase supply."
While landlords often seem to want property prices to grow to the sky and renters want to see an instantaneous property crash, neither of these outcomes is desirable for our wider society or for our economy. Far better, in my opinion at least, would be a prolonged period of moderate property price growth which is somewhat slower than the rate of household income growth (thus making real prices more affordable over time). The problem facing us is that humans are irrational beings and thus tend towards boom and bust, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try.

<hr>
Pete Wargent is the co-founder of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His new book '<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.
 
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Negative gearing: what practical effect does it have and should it be changed?

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Since 2011, we've heard a lot of opinions which suggest that "low interest rates don't work any more" and such like. However, slowly but surely low interest rates are indeed starting to work as these three charts from RP Data show.
It's certainly been a slow burn but gradually dwellings are being approved and constructed, with total approvals now moving 1.9% above the 20 year average according to RP Data.
Low interest rates necessarily take time to work, and this is particularly the case when it comes to dwelling construction as new projects can take many years to make it through the approval and financing stages.
<img style="border: 1px solid #ebebeb; position: relative; padding: 5px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="470" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kgXpK-V_g1c/UmwjYD4waDI/AAAAAAAAKn4/Hk2PlbweUKs/s400/2013_10_25-dwelling-approvals-20yr-avg.png" height="241">
Source: RP Data
I've said to a few people of late that if anyone truly and honestly believes that dwelling construction is not happening in Sydney then they should pop around to my place for a cuppa on a Saturday morning and listen to the awesome racket going on outside.
A huge amount of building is underway around inner Sydney with many thousands of new apartments due to come online over the next five years, particularly around the CBD and the inner south (where an apartment boom sees some 25,000 units planned for the next five years).
I can see the upturn with my own eyes, but you can also see it in the NSW line on the chart below with the number of dwelling approvals increasing dramatically over the past four years.
<img style="border: 1px solid #ebebeb; position: relative; padding: 5px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="470" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iCPzTVL8YAQ/UmwjRzJT1NI/AAAAAAAAKnw/8AGN0iLgthg/s400/2013_10_25_annual-dwelling-approvals.png" height="244">
Source: RP Data
Only Victoria has a chart which is moving in a downwards direction, but this is to be expected after a huge spike in approvals after the financial crisis 'emergency low' interest rates which led to something of an oversupply of certain types of stock on the market in that state.
The monthly figures are volatile but year on year the trend is clearly up, particularly in NSW (+22.6%), Queenesland (+12.2%) and Western Australia (+31.8%). In Victoria, approvals slipped by 3% while South Australia saw a moderate upturn (+9.6%).
Note that the new building in Australia will be heavily focussed upon units and medium-density dwellings as opposed to detached houses, with 41.6% of approvals for that type of property (2012: 33.2%).
This trend is to be expected with our denser cities today and demographic shift towards living close to the CBD in medium-density dwellings.
Household sizes are also smaller today than in decades past, and while there will remain a high demand for well-located detached housing, the higher cost of city land will ensure that most new builds in the future will be unit stock.
<img style="border: 1px solid #ebebeb; position: relative; padding: 5px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.0980392) 1px 1px 5px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="470" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZNXjEXGALjs/Umwje2TZT4I/AAAAAAAAKoA/hRQad3g1OaA/s400/2013_10_25_rolling-unit-approvals.png" height="247">
Source: RP Data
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be happy with the unfolding trends as mining construction capital expenditure looks set to drop off through 2014 and beyond.
The RBA hopes that the inevitable fall in mining capex will be offset by an increase in dwelling construction. The charts above show that we are slowly but surely moving in the right direction.
Clearly the Sydney housing markets have been firing for some time with price growth close to 13% in 2013 alone.
But now there are some signs of life in Brisbane too, which has been expected given the reports from those 'on the ground' in Queensland. Dwelling prices in Brisbane are reported as being up by 1.84% quarter on quarter.
Not sure what happened in Melbourne yesterday - prices recorded as being up by more than $2,000 in 24 hours...?!
RP Data has Perth seeming to have slowed a little after a strong uplift in prices.
The slowest growth of the major capital cities has been in Adelaide where prices are up by 1.55% year on year, which is a slower rate of growth than the national inflation rate.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/29/rp-data-oct-29.gif" width="470" height="377" alt="rp-data-oct-29">
Source: RP Data
 
<hr>
 Pete Wargent is the co-founder of <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://allenwargent.com/">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/">blogger</a>.
His new book '<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.
 
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Slowly but surely low interest rates are starting to work

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“I ‘heart’ the Grattan Institute,” Peter Verwer told the room.
At a forum in Melbourne on Thursday night, the CEO of the Property Council of Australia said the Institute was thought-provoking and open to discussion. “But that’s where the good news ends.”
The forum was an opportunity to discuss the findings of <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/finance/tax/34232-government-policies-favour-wealthy-property-owners">this week’s Grattan Institute report</a>, which found that many government policies did little to make housing more affordable for those who do not already own home.
The Institute invited along the body most likely to be critical of such a view. The match-up did not disappoint. Verwer and the report’s author, Grattan Institute Cities Program director Jane-Frances Kelly, clashed over many of the report’s key findings.
Verwer, who jokingly claimed he was at the forum representing “the dark side of the force”, took issue with the report’s claim that homeowners received a $36 billion subsidy from the government.
“That figure is a load of cobblers,” Verwer said. “The report moves from talking of theoretical taxes, then calls them subsidies, then outlays. There are no subsidies. But that line is fed to the media.”
Kelly, however, defended adding up the “generosity of the taxpayer”.
“The numbers are on government budget papers,” she said. “Sure they’re theoretical, but they are counted in the economic accounts.”
Both Verwer and Kelly agreed the tax system surrounding housing was badly designed, and both said the lack of housing supply was a crucial issue keeping home ownership out of the reach of many.
“The relationship between housing supply, economic growth and population grown has been moving out of sync,” Verwer said.
The warring duo also agreed that taxes like stamp duty made little sense, and discouraged people from selling up and moving homes to dwellings more in tune with their needs.
However, they clashed on the issue of negative gearing.
Kelly said that the policy, which allows investors to offset the loan repayments not covered by a rental income against their taxable income, acted to increase the demand for housing stock, pushing prices up, creating a “zero sum game” with taxpayers and those outside the housing market being the losers.
Verwer strongly disagreed, saying that negative gearing, while doing little to create new housing stock, did create new rental stock.
“The earnings from rent are not desirable,” he said. Faced with yields of around 4%, he argued, small and medium-sized investors needed negative gearing to make the ownership of rental stock desirable.
The tax break was used by small investors, he said, claiming that just 10% of those using negative gearing to minimise their tax earn more than $180,000 a year. Because of that deduction, there were 1.8 million homes available relatively cheaply for rent that would otherwise not be available.
“It’s not a monumental benefit anyway,” he said. “On the Grattan Institute’s numbers, it works out to $25 a week in most cases.
“Frankly, it’s the deal of the century [for the government]. If you didn’t have negative gearing, you’d have to invent it.”
But Kelly questioned whether having a high proportion of the population renting was a good thing.
For the past few decades, she said, home ownership had hovered around 70%. It’s only 68.5% overall now, she said, but the figure had plummeted among those under 45 and those on low incomes.
Today, a quarter of Australians rent. The median age of renters is 37.
Despite this, she said, there persisted an attitude that renters were layabouts and vagrants.
“The thought of renting as only a transitional thing is out-dated. People are renting further into their lifetime, and there are more children in rental households.”
Despite this, she said renters here have few rights, with Australia having some of the shortest lease terms in the world and the shortest mandated notice periods.
“Kids benefit from stability,” Kelly said. “And we restrict how much renters can have a sense of creating a home. Things like hanging up pictures, or having pets, are often not allowed.
“That’s the effect of this capital gains culture. We treat tenants almost as an accident of people using that investment instrument. But renters want to be treated with respect. They’re not just an income stream for real people living elsewhere.”

<hr>
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
 
 
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