Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

&nbsp;

One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

Joel Robinson

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

WM Residences fills gap in Mordialloc townhouse market

&nbsp;

Developer GURNER™ Group has revealed $1.65 billion in residential sales nationally across the 12 months to December 2025, driven largely by the continued momentum of its Docklands wellness-focused precinct, Elysium Fields.

The sales result was generated across seven projects in Victoria and New South Wales, headlined by Elysium Fields, GURNER™’s $2.75 billion mixed-use precinct planned for Harbour Esplanade in Docklands.

The project has recorded more than $500 million in sales across the first three towers, equating to around 580 apartments sold.

The first tower, Helios, has now sold out of its 240 private residences, with GURNER™ preparing to release a premium penthouse collection comprising 15 three-bedroom penthouses in coming weeks.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370975]

Elysium Fields is being developed on the long-held 20,000 sqm Docklands site at 208-226 Harbour Esplanade, which had remained undeveloped for more than two decades prior to GURNER™ taking over the project around four years ago.

Construction has now commenced across four towers ranging between 18 and 30 storeys, with Hamilton Marino and Maxcon appointed as builders.

Once complete, the precinct is expected to comprise around 1,100 residences, alongside retail, hospitality and public realm uses integrated throughout the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370981]

Designed by Fraser &amp; Partners in collaboration with GURNER™ Design House, the project has been positioned around the developer’s broader focus on wellness-led residential living.

“We don’t sell apartments. We create a true luxury lifestyle that simply doesn’t exist elsewhere in the market today,” Founder and Executive Chairman Tim Gurner said.

“To deliver that requires an extraordinary level of detail, coordination and discipline across multiple verticals, from design and hospitality through to wellness and service.”

“We’ve always believed that living extends far beyond the physical residence. It’s about how you feel the moment you arrive, how you live day-to-day, and the ecosystem that supports that.” 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370977]

The project’s design places a heavy focus on landscaping, wellness amenities and biophilic design principles.

Plans include around 3,700 sqm of landscaped gardens and open space throughout the precinct, alongside a retail and dining offering spanning approximately 5,000 sqm.

The broader public realm strategy centres around what GURNER™ describes as the “Path of Life”, an urban forest and landscaped pedestrian environment intended to connect the various buildings and wellness spaces across the precinct.

The apartments themselves will incorporate a range of wellness-focused inclusions, including purified air and water systems, circadian lighting, antimicrobial surfaces, and optional in-home wellness upgrades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370980]

Gurner said the company’s experience through its Saint Haven wellness clubs had directly informed the residential offering now being incorporated into Elysium Fields.

“We’re seeing a clear global shift toward longevity, performance and proactive health,” Gurner said.

“Our role is to deliver that in a way that feels seamless, highly private and beautifully resolved within the environments we create.”

A large component of the wellness offering is planned through the resident amenity and health facilities proposed within the precinct.

That includes plans for bathing and recovery facilities spread throughout the towers, incorporating mineral pools, saunas, steam rooms, flotation therapy, red light therapy and wellness lounges.

The developer is also seeking approvals for what it describes as a “reverse ageing medical clinic” within the precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370978]

According to project information released by the group, the proposed facility would include cryotherapy, IV infusion therapy, infrared and dry saunas, PEMF beds, MRIs, DEXA scans, brain scans and blood analysis services.

Within the first tower, Helios, residents will also have access to a dedicated amenity offering known as the Sky Private Club.

The upper 15 levels of the building will include private lounges, dining spaces, rooftop amenities and optional private wellness studios integrated within residences.

The Helios tower itself comprises 260 apartments ranging between 60 sqm and 300 sqm, including a collection of penthouses.

That includes a planned two-storey penthouse spanning around 600 sqm with uninterrupted bay views.

The Elysium Fields precinct is being delivered in partnership with Digital Harbour Holdings, a consortium that includes the Liberman family, which controls the development rights across the Docklands site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144441 project_image_fid=370979]

The sales result comes as GURNER™ continues expanding its national development pipeline beyond Victoria.

“We have a strong pipeline across Australia and are now focused on scaling into key markets including New South Wales and Queensland, while continuing to build on our Melbourne base,” Gurner said.

“We currently have more than $3 billion in the market, growing to over $5 billion by October, and expect to materially outperform last year in the 2026 calendar year.”

The result also reflects the continued strength of the upper-end apartment market in Melbourne, particularly for owner-occupier-focused product with large-scale amenity and lifestyle offerings.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144441]

Record result anchored by the Group’s “utopian” Elysium Fields precinct – defying market headwinds in Docklands.

Elysium Fields drive Gurner to $1.65 billion in apartment sales over 2025

National Australia Bank (NAB) will fund <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/palmera-residences-gold-coast-18-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Palmera</a>, a $1 billion, 52-level luxury residential tower being developed by Central Equity in one of the Gold Coast’s most tightly held coastal locations at Northcliffe.

The project, launched recently by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/central-equity">Central Equity</a>, one of Victoria’s largest private residential developers, comes at a time when construction funding for large residential developments has become increasingly competitive as lenders tighten exposure to the sector.

Multiplex has been appointed the builder, and construction is now underway.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365784]

Since its first project, Central Equity has delivered more than 85 residential developments with a combined end value exceeding $8 billion.

Palmera reflects Central Equity’s growing focus on the Gold Coast luxury apartment market and continues a relationship between Central Equity and NAB that dates back to the late 1980s, when the bank funded one of Melbourne’s earliest inner-city residential towers at a time when high-rise apartment living in the CBD was largely unproven.

“NAB’s funding of Central Equity’s $36 million CBD development in the late 1980’s to the financing of the billion-dollar tower today highlights the long-term relationship between the two organisations in delivering major residential projects” said Central Equity Founder and Chairman Eddie Kutner.

He said NAB’s early support was instrumental in helping establish the company’s development model.

“When we commenced our first residential tower in the late 1980s the concept of funding off-the-plan apartments was still largely untested in Australia,” Kutner said.

“NAB recognised the opportunity early and supported the project when others were uncertain. That relationship has now continued for more than 37 years across many developments.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365771]

Central Equity was established in 1987 when Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank precinct were still dominated by warehouses and commercial buildings. Fewer than 100 residents lived in Southbank at the time, and large-scale residential development in the inner city was not widely considered.

Recognising changing demographics and lifestyle preferences, the company began developing high-rise residential projects designed to bring permanent residents into the city centre.

Central Equity has provided accommodation for approximately 40,000 residents across Melbourne’s CBD and Southbank, while also incorporating supporting infrastructure including essential lifestyle facilities like retail spaces, childcare facilities and neighbourhood activity centres.

Central Equity has spent many years assembling the Palmera development site on the corner of Garfield Terrace and Frederick Street in Northcliffe, creating a supersite of around 3,300 sqm.

The developer said the Palmera apartment tower reflects its long-term view of the Gold Coast as a growing and increasingly diversified economy.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108274 project_image_fid=365768]

Supported by infrastructure including the light rail network, major road upgrades expanded education, hospital and medical facilities and continued expansion at the Gold Coast Airport with more international and domestic flights.

Positioned in the tightly held Northcliffe precinct, the 52-level tower will deliver 347 apartments, targeting buyers seeking a high-end coastal lifestyle, from downsizers to interstate investors.

Designed by Marchese Partners with interiors by DBI, Palmera has been conceived as a next-generation residential offering, featuring a collection of oversized apartments, with premium three-bedroom residences offering sweeping northern views stretching from Surfers Paradise through to Burleigh Heads.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=108274]

NAB funds $1 billion Surfers Paradise apartment development, Palmera

Two years after completing one of the newest developments in North Sydney, developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a> is turning its attention to the rapidly evolving St Leonards apartment market.

The developer, which completed AURA by Aqualand on North Sydney's Walker Street, has lodged plans for a 5,918 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/33-37-herbert-street-st-leonards-nsw-2065">33-37 Herbert Street, St Leonards,</a> seeking approval for a pair of residential towers rising above a shared podium opposite Royal North Shore Hospital.

The proposal forms part of the broader transformation underway across the St Leonards-Crows Nest precinct, where former industrial and commercial sites are increasingly being redeveloped into high-density mixed-use projects tied to major transport infrastructure.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2cc428cf-fe70-4cac-9cd5-264ad53af62c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.56%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=otKSnHtbjAvAddOnovyXQMgcAwE6DMe1" />

According to the planning documents, the site sits “within the St Leonards–Crows Nest Strategic Centre, identified by the NSW Government as a key area for accommodating future jobs and housing across Sydney.”

The proposal has been designed by fjcstudio, formerly FJMT Studio, and is being progressed through the State Significant Development pathway due to its scale and affordable housing provision.

The scheme would comprise 413 apartments, including 46 affordable housing units, alongside retail and commercial uses fronting Herbert Street. The project would also include communal open space, landscaping, a swimming pool, gymnasium, children’s play areas and podium-level resident amenities.

Planning documents show the development would consist of a part-13, part-39 storey tower form positioned above a four-storey podium.

“The development comprises a unified podium that activates the street interface, and two setback towers to accommodate new housing supply while maintaining an appropriate human scale at ground level,” fjcstudio noted in its Design Report.

The northern and southern towers have been shaped to respond to the surrounding skyline while also limiting overshadowing impacts to nearby public open space, particularly Talus Reserve.

The design report said the differing tower heights were intended to “contribute to a varied skyline while responding to the surrounding built form context and solar access considerations.”

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="36da62dc-ff9e-41f2-a7e3-7be38373751c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.45%E2%80%AFAM_0.png?VersionId=Mo6Rp2r.XRLTzIfg_PEEpw8NepDH8UBs" />

The site sits directly opposite Royal North Shore Hospital and within walking distance of both St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

While the site itself sits just outside the formal Crows Nest Transport Oriented Development boundary, the planning documents repeatedly reference its alignment with the broader TOD objectives reshaping the Lower North Shore.

“The site is located adjacent to St Leonards Station and in close proximity to Crows Nest Metro which is within the Crows Nest Transit Orientated Development Accelerated Precinct which has been identified by the NSW Government to support housing delivery,” the Design Verification Statement noted.

According to fjcstudio, the project has been designed to respond to the broader transition occurring across St Leonards, where increasing residential density is being concentrated around transport infrastructure and employment hubs.

“The broader precinct is undergoing significant change, with a mix of existing mid-rise buildings and newer high-density developments,” the report stated.

“Recent and approved projects indicate a consistent shift toward taller built form, typically organised as tower-and-podium typologies with more active ground levels.”

The proposal includes close to 6,000 sqm of retail and commercial space across the ground floor and podium levels, designed to create a more activated street edge along Herbert Street.

Aqualand’s plans would also introduce a landscaped podium shared between the two towers, with communal open space in the form of a podium rooftop designed to support resident interaction and improve urban greening outcomes. The scheme would also introduce pocket parks at the northern and southern ends of the site, including a landscaped area at the corner of Herbert and Ella streets designed to improve pedestrian amenity and soften the streetscape.

&nbsp;

The proposal is being progressed through the NSW Government’s Housing Delivery Authority pathway, which was introduced to accelerate housing supply across the state. The application was declared State Significant Development in April 2025 following an expression of interest process.

<img alt="Aqualand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="faf6d97d-2671-454f-b85a-fe1c6a7be608" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%209.51.49%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=diVd28OBVr5.YV.7prrOz.uAanwwwm7a" />

St Leonards has been particularly active with new developments in recent weeks. Developer SP Setia’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-sp-setia-targets-st-leonards-skyline-with-40-storey-tod-tower">plans for a new 42-storey tower</a> recently went on exhibition through the same pathway, while <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">Stockland’s 52-storey tower proposal</a> was also recently unveiled.

Aside from the St Leonards project, which is expected to take around nine months to move through the approvals process ahead of a potential 2027 launch, Aqualand is also preparing to launch Boronia, a new apartment project in Roseville comprising around 111 apartments on Larkin Street.

The developer also has approvals in place for the next stage of the Barangaroo precinct, which will feature new residential, retail, hospitality and community uses, alongside a new metro entry across the five-hectare site.

More than 50 new retail destinations are planned for Central Barangaroo, alongside a 270-metre-long boulevard connecting Hickson Park to Nawi Cove. Together with Harbour Park, more than 50 per cent of the precinct will comprise public open space and parkland.

First look: Aqualand joins St Leonards apartment party

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The Australian Tax Office (ATO) says it continues to see a number of taxpayers understating rental income and over-claiming rental deductions.
With the surge in real estate sales, especially residential real estate, and an emphasis on investment properties, the ATO has not surprisingly taken a close interest in the <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/finance/tax/43478-ato-targets-work-expenses-rental-properties-and-more" target="_blank">expense claims people make concerning their rental properties</a>.
Rental properties have been on the ATO radar, it seems, forever. The issues haven't greatly changed, but it seems taxpayers are still getting it wrong. Quite why this is the case is something of a mystery.
The ATO is now sending what it says are "re-designed" letters to taxpayers regarding reviews of rental, legal and/or borrowing expense claims. In those letters, the ATO says it will provide information on specific expense claims it is reviewing. It says the letters identify:
<ul>
<li>the relevant tax return label where the expense is claimed and the amounts in question; 
</li>
<li>the proposed ATO adjustments; 
</li>
<li>what to do if there is a disagreement about what has been claimed; and 
</li>
<li>where to find relevant information on the ATO website.</li>
</ul>
The ATO says it has also refined its case selection processes to minimise the likelihood of incorrectly selecting commercial properties.
Common errors with rental expense claims
Some of the common errors the ATO has identified include claiming as a legal and/or borrowing expense:
<ul>
<li>stamp duty on the transfer of property; 
</li>
<li>legal fees in relation to family divorce proceedings; 
</li>
<li>borrowing expenses in a single year, instead of being spread over five years as the law requires. The five years runs from the date of the borrowing; 
</li>
<li>borrowing expenses for personal loan protection insurance for injury, illness and loss of income; 
</li>
<li>interest expenses incorrectly claimed at the borrowing expense label on the tax return; 
</li>
<li>renovation costs as repairs and maintenance instead of being attributed to the capital cost of the property. This area causes confusion for many in determining for a start what is a repair versus what is a renovation. Structural improvements are unlikely to repairs e.g. remodelling a bathroom or kitchen; 
</li>
<li>solicitors fees for purchase of the property; and 
</li>
<li>some expenses as legal instead of sundry expenses. For example, fire levy expenses and lease fees.</li>
</ul>
The ATO says it continues to see a number of taxpayers understating rental income and over-claiming rental deductions. The ATO says it will be expanding its focus to investigate issues such as the incorrect:
<ul>
<li>apportionment of income and expenses based on ownership holdings; 
</li>
<li>claiming of expenses for vacant land; 
</li>
<li>apportionment of expenses for holiday homes. This may be done on the basis of the actual number of days the property is let at a commercial rent, although this will depend on the particular circumstances; 
</li>
<li>claiming of interest expenses for private borrowings.</li>
</ul>
It's also important to remember that expenses incurred in respect of an empty rental property will only be deductible if the property is available for rent and there are active and bona fide attempts to let the property. This means that expenses incurred will not be deductible for any period during which the property owner does not actively seek to find a tenant. This is a common issue.
There are many rental property expenses that are tax deductible e.g. council and water rates, building insurance premiums, real estate agent management fees, advertising costs, travel costs to inspect the property, etc.  However, as the Tax Office has clearly found, there are a number of areas where mistakes are being made. Rental property owners should take note of these.
Terry Hayes is the editor-in-chief of tax news reporting at <a href="https://www.thomsonreuters.com.au/" target="_blank">Thomson Reuters</a>, a leading Australian provider of tax, accounting and legal information solutions.
Thomson Reuters <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.thomsonreuters.com.au/the-australian-tax-handbook-tax-return-edition-2014/productdetail/121906" target="_blank">Australian Tax Handbook 2014 – Tax Return Edition</a> provides information on claiming all kinds of tax deductions, including the rules relating to claiming rental properties and work-related expenses.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
 
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thayes-XhNcNKLNWa

Rental property owners in ATO's sights: What you can and can't claim

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The capital gains tax laws are voluminous and complicated. But they also contain benefits for taxpayers.
Legislation introduced in federal Parliament last week – the Tax and Superannuation Laws Amendment (2014 Measures No 7) Bill 2014 – will amend the tax law to ensure that CGT exemption is available in respect of compensation or damages received by:
<ul>
<li>a trustee (other than a trustee of a complying super fund) for a wrong or injury a beneficiary suffers in their occupation, or a wrong, injury or illness a beneficiary or their relative suffers personally - and a beneficiary that subsequently receives a distribution that is attributable to such compensation or damages from the trustee; 
</li>
<li>a taxpayer for a policy of insurance on the life of an individual or an annuity instrument if the taxpayer is the original owner of the policy or instrument; and 
</li>
<li>a trustee of a complying super fund for a policy of insurance for an individual's illness or injury.</li>
</ul>
The government said it was intended that trustees or beneficiaries who receive compensation or damages in respect of certain events (such as an injury an individual suffers at work) or in respect of certain policies of insurance (such as illness, injury or death) not be subject to CGT.
However, the express wording of the relevant provisions in the tax law had created uncertainty about this treatment. It was also intended that insurance policies held by complying superannuation funds for injuries and illnesses suffered by an individual not be subject to CGT. So the legislation now introduced seeks to implement those original intentions.
Under the proposed changes, a capital gain or loss made by a trustee in relation to compensation or damages for any wrong or injury a beneficiary of the trust suffers in their occupation, or any wrong, injury or illness a beneficiary of the trust or their relative suffers personally, will be disregarded. Further, a capital gain or loss made by a beneficiary will also be disregarded if the trustee of a trust then distributes money, property or other CGT assets to the beneficiary attributable to the compensation or damages received by the trustee.
Take the following example.
Robert is the beneficiary of ABC trust, which was established after Robert fell off a roof whilst working for Roofing Inc and suffered serious injuries. Patrick, as trustee of ABC trust, seeks compensation on behalf of Robert from Roofing Inc's insurance company, and receives compensation for the accident.
Under the proposed law, the capital gain made by Patrick in relation to the compensation received will be disregarded.
Assume Robert recovers from his injuries, but requires substantial further medical and other support. Patrick, as trustee of ABC trust, distributes the compensation to Robert to assist in paying his hospital bills. Any capital gain made by Robert in relation to the compensation received will be disregarded.
The bill also proposes that a capital gain or capital loss made from a CGT event happening to an interest in a policy of insurance on the life of an individual or an annuity instrument is disregarded by the original owner of the policy or instrument.
Another example will help explain this.
Fred holds a life insurance policy from an insurance company. Fred passes away and his wife Jane, as executor of his estate, receives $200,000 from the insurance company in respect of the policy. Jane, as executor of Fred's estate pays $50,000 to Alice, a beneficiary of Fred's estate. The payment to Alice is attributable to the amount received by Fred's estate in respect of the life insurance policy.
Any capital gain made by Alice, as a beneficiary of Fred's estate, will be disregarded.
The amendments will apply retrospectively in relation to CGT events happening in the 2005-06 and later income years i.e. generally from 1 July 2005. Accordingly, the tax law has also been amended to ensure that taxpayers are given sufficient time to seek an amendment to previous assessments (as the amendment period will otherwise have expired in some cases), if required in these circumstances.
The government says the amendments are consistent with the administrative practice of the Commissioner of Taxation and ensure that taxpayers that could have benefited by relying on the Commissioner’s administrative practice are not disadvantaged by the changes.
The bill will not be debated until after Parliament resumes in February 2015, but the changes are welcome.
Terry Hayes is the editor-in-chief of tax news reporting at <a href="https://www.thomsonreuters.com.au/" target="_blank">Thomson Reuters</a>, a leading Australian provider of tax, accounting and legal information solutions.
Thomson Reuters <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.thomsonreuters.com.au/the-australian-tax-handbook-tax-return-edition-2014/productdetail/121906" target="_blank">Australian Tax Handbook 2014 – Tax Return Edition</a> provides information on claiming all kinds of tax deductions, including the rules relating to claiming rental properties and work-related expenses.
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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How CGT changes to exemptions on compensation or damages could benefit taxpayers 

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Brisbane tenants and unit owners need to brush up on body corporate rules in the wake of recent storms to avoid being stung with insurance nightmares.
With experts predicting an increase in severe storms this summer, I’m urging all Brisbane unit owners to prepare now. Residents in units and apartments in particular have unique considerations to bear in mind around storm preparedness and insurance claims.
Residents need to think about how the storm’s effect on the body corporate will impact their property, and vice versa for how their actions can affect the body corporate. For example, the placement of a drain in a common area could potentially be a flood hazard to ground floor properties if there is an excessive amount of rain.
Owners should be aware of this type of issue and have an action plan in place to mitigate potential flood damage which could include having a barrier ready to roll out and a plan to move any valuables.
On the flip side, unit owners and tenants need to prepare their property not only to ensure their own safety but also the safety of the building as a whole.
This includes securing balcony furniture and ensuring the property complies with the building’s by-laws. If a unit does not comply it can create unnecessary dangers for the property and the building as a whole.
Navigating the insurance process can be tricky for those in units and apartments. It depends on your scheme’s insurance but most policies will cover the structure of the building including internal fixed cupboards, but will normally exclude cover for carpets and of course your personal belongings.
Some policies may also exclude flood cover unless the body corporate chooses to include it, so be sure to check the policy document of your scheme’s insurance to know what’s covered and what’s not.
Here are some tips for you to consider:
<ul>
<li>Prepare your property – secure items on your balcony and ensure your unit complies with the building’s by-laws. If you’re unsure, contact your body corporate. 
</li>
<li>Prepare common areas – clear away any rubbish and ensure all loose items are secured. This includes outdoor furniture, pot plants and plastic pool furniture which can be placed in the pool to avoid it blowing away. 
</li>
<li>Check your insurance policy – be aware that the building’s strata insurance does not cover your belongings in your unit so you will need to have up-to-date contents insurance. 
</li>
<li>Familiarise yourself with your building’s evacuation plan just in case you need to evacuate and ensure you consider pets if necessary. </li>
<li>Communicate with your body corporate about your property’s damage and any damage you notice on common property as soon as possible.</li>
</ul>
Grant Mifsud has more than 12 years’ experience in the strata industry and has been a senior body corporate manager at<a href="https://www.abcm.com.au" target="_blank"> Archers Body Corporate Management</a> since 2007. 
Currently Grant manages a portfolio of clients in the Brisbane region with a focus on providing financial and strata legislation advice. Grant is a practitioner member of Strata Community Australia (SCA).
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GrantMifsud-hZGcbKY2ir

Recent storms show why it pays to brush up on body corporate laws

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Building a secondary dwelling, either on a principal place of residence or out the back of a rental property, for tenants to live in has long been an accepted way of increasing rental yield on applicable homes.
With double the income from one block, the $80,000 to $120,000 outlay to build a granny flat has been undertaken in many areas, in particularly Western Sydney.
However, the Tenants’ Union of Tasmania’s solicitor, Peter Foster, is warning Tasmanian tenants about some of the difficulties.
The main issue remains around the subject of electricity or power connection. Even if the landlords live in the main house, or it is holding tenants itself, it’s advised to have separate meters.
Not only will this make life easier in terms of bills, however not keeping this separate may actually be unlawful under the Act, explains Foster in the latest TUTas advisory email.
“Some owners will insert clauses into leases that seem like a fair compromise. For example, that each household pays half of the power bill. But is going halves just when only two tenants live in the flat while the owner, her husband and three children reside in the adjacent house? It would be reasonable to assume the owner and her family will be consuming more electricity,” writes Foster.
He suggests that there may also be some arrangements where there’s a “per head pay share” where each tenant pays for a divided portion of the bill per person. However, lifestyle imbalances can affect the bills and still have some paying more than they should.
When assessing ‘fairness’, clearly there are many difficulties. The Act is even clearer. Foster explains that the landlord is only able to charge for rent, damage and usage costs of a water bill under the agreement, but that all other charges cannot be collected by the landlord or agent. This would include electricity bills.
The solution may be to have a meter installed at the granny flat. While ne notes that owners have no legal obligation to install the meter it certainly seems the most recommended option.
How have you tackled this issue with your tenants?
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jduke-EHk3XBmHkn

Landlords warned against sharing utilities between main house and granny flat

<html><body>
Mortgage stress is one of those difficult situations that no one wants to face. For new buyers, and even experienced property owners, the thought of being in a scramble to afford your repayments understandably evokes a significant amount of fear.
If you are facing mortgage stress, the harbinger of a potential foreclosure, there are certain things you can do to manage the situation.
Smartline Personal Mortgage Advisers’ executive director Joe Sirianni suggests that, clearly, the first thing to bear in mind is how to reduce the possibility of ending up experiencing mortgage stress in the first place.
Anecdotal experience leads Sirianni to believe that those in financial stress have held onto their asset for too long as the stress starts to build.   “Eventually their debt repayments put them in a position where they go very close to bankruptcy and, in hindsight, will express their wish that they’d sold their home sooner in order to get rid of their debt earlier and give themselves time to get back on track,” he said.   “That’s not to say that making the decision to sell your home in order to clear debt isn’t a stressful and deeply emotional choice to make. Rather, leaving the decision-making process for too long can make an already stressful situation even more difficult – it’s best to talk about the situation and discuss options right from the beginning.”
So, firstly, if you think mortgage stress is going to become a possibility or you’re starting to feel the pinch then consider to yourself whether selling early is the best option for you.
Similarly, if you can predict what the worst case scenarios may be then you are often better placed to handle them should they arise.
Redundancy, illness or injury can be possible outcomes for every individual and it is worth putting in place insurances ahead of time to mitigate these risks.
Personal insurance products, such as income protection insurance, trauma insurance and possibly life insurance can be worthwhile considerations.
If this is something you haven’t managed to do – be upfront with your lender and tell them quickly what the problem is.
“It’s always best to be upfront with your lending institution to let them know about your situation – particularly if you predict that you’ll experience financial difficulties in the near future if you don’t secure another income,” Sirianni advises.
For lenders, it’s in their interest to assist you during these times. You may find that a lender can assist by helping you change your loan to interest only for a period until you find another job, or give you a “repayment holiday” until you’re on your feet.
While you do have an obligation to repay your loan, lenders are not out to work against you and there’s often a solution you can work with them towards.
“Not only are many people surprised by how readily lenders will work with them, they find that any misconceptions around how they might manage the debt on their own are incorrect,” he suggests. This may include borrowers who believe they can use the equity in their home to assist during tough times – without realising that they need an income to have lending approved to pull out these funds.
Other situations that are seen by Sirianni as causing mortgage stress can include credit card and personal loan debt.
Now is the time to stop accruing more debt. Cut up your cards, speak to your lender and look to put yourself on a repayment plan, he suggests.
“If you find yourself in a distressing financial position as a result of an unforeseeable event that, in turn, sees you falling behind on your mortgage repayments and incurring significant credit card debt as a result, there are options available – highlighting the need to get on top of out-of-control debt from the very beginning,” he said.
In summary:
<ul>
<li>Consider selling earlier rather than later 
</li>
<li>Attempt to predict your difficulties ahead of time and prepare with insurances 
</li>
<li>Speak to your lender quickly 
</li>
<li>Cut up your credit cards, and put yourself on repayment plans</li>
</ul>
Here are some <a href="/expert-insights/finance/what-to-do-if-you-are-in-mortgage-stress">more suggestions from the Consumer Credit Legal Centre (NSW)</a>.
ALSO READ: <a href="/expert-insights/finance/what-is-negative-equity-and-what-can-you-do-about-it">What is negative equity and what can you do about it </a>
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How to: Manage mortgage stress

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Housing price growth had slowed a little, the December minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia noted.
But there continued to be considerable regional variation, with housing price growth strongest in Sydney.
"Members noted that credit to owner-occupiers was growing at a pace only a little above that of income, but that growth in credit to investors was considerably higher," the minutes said.
"The available data suggested that dwelling investment was likely to subtract a little from growth in the September quarter.
"However, building approvals and other forward-looking indicators of residential building activity continued to suggest that dwelling investment would contribute to growth in coming quarters. 
"Aggregate housing price growth had slowed a little."
The RBA board members noted that the strength in the housing market and data on retail sales, for example, indicated that household consumption growth was likely to have picked up a little from the pace recorded in recent quarters.
However, they recognised that the labour market had remained subdued and that this was restraining growth in labour income.
The unemployment rate had risen over the past six months, employment growth had been somewhat below the pace of population growth and wage growth had remained low in the September quarter.
The members also noted that conditions in the Australian residential mortgage-backed securities market were strong at present, with high levels of issuance and relatively tight pricing. 
"Competition in the deposit market had continued to ease and interest rates on certain savings accounts had declined noticeably over the past year or so. 
"Lending rates on the stock of outstanding housing and business loans remained at historically low levels," the minutes advised.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

RBA notes considerable regional price growth variation

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A trusted Melbourne lawyer who swindled clients out of more than $12 million received a 12-year jail sentence for his crimes last week.
The Supreme Court of Victoria heard Philip Linacre operated a 12-year-long <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/legal/19226-how-graham-hoy-created-australia-s-worst-ponzi-scheme-and-got-13-years-jail">Ponzi scheme</a>, a fraudulent investment where returns are paid to investors are paid by new investors, rather than from profit earned from the investment itself.
Linacre told clients, including his own family and friends, their investments would be given to a third party as a mortgage loan, promising them between returns of 12% and 24% on the investments. He was instead using their money to pay out the interest on other clients' investments.
Linacre, who said he started the scheme because of his own bad financial position, operated the arrangement from 2000 until 2012, when he turned himself in to police. He pleaded guilty to 21 counts of dishonesty and five counts of having a deficiency in a trust account.
Chief Justice Warren called Linacre’s actions “calculated and complex” and said many of the victims were already in difficult financial circumstances when Linacre convinced them to invest.
“You have committed a number of serious offences in the trusted position of a lawyer,” said Warren in her ruling.
“Importantly, these victims came to you in their time of need. Many sought information about investing their life savings, superannuation or inheritance. They placed complete trust in you. You did not only steal money from your victims, you robbed them of their future.”
Warren also found many of Linacre’s victims suffered ill health because of his criminality.
Linacre will serve a minimum of eight years’ jail.
Brett Warfield chief executive of forensic accounting firm Warfield &amp; Associates, said Ponzi schemes have been around for a long time and there were two major red flags for investors to watch out for.
“The first, and most glaring, is the rate of return you are promised,” says Warfield.
“As soon as you are promised above the market rate, so in this instance the mortgage lending rate, when you get someone offering double, triple or four times that, straight away that should be a sign.”
Warfield says the greater the return on investment, the greater the risk for investors.
“The other thing with Ponzi schemes is asking questions about the actual investment,” he says. “Asking what type of information will be provided about my investments?”
Warfield says investors should expect detailed reports and correspondences on their investment, such as what one might expect from superannuation funds. He says although some people may feel uncomfortable asking for this information, investors have to be proactive to protect themselves.
“You have to be in charge of your money,” he says. “The good thing is vulnerable people who would have invested may see and may think twice.”
This article first appeared on <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/" target="_blank">SmartCompany</a>.
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krobb-aCrRNnPq6D

Melbourne lawyer jailed for 12 years over “calculated and complex” Ponzi mortgage scheme

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With more borrowers than ever before in this latest low rate cycle opting for fixed rates, Finder.com.au’s Michelle Hutchison is suggesting that borrowers may want to seriously consider fixing their home loan.
At present, borrowers fixing their loans through the Finder website are at 36%, the highest level in the past three years – since the beginning of the falls of the cash rate in November 2011.
At the start of 2014, 25% of borrowers were fixing, compared to November 2011 when just 11% were looking to fix.
Hutchison said that, despite some experts predicting a cut before the rates start to increase, the rise in fixed rate popularity may be the abundance of experts predicting rates to climb. In their survey, seven of 37 experts predict a rate drop next year.
“Despite this, they are still expecting rates to eventually rise, so borrowers who have overstretched themselves or concerned should consider locking in a fixed rate home loan,” she said.
“This year, we've seen average variable home loan rates fall by 0.24 percentage points – from 5.46% in January to 5.22% now. The difference in monthly repayments for a $300,000 loan size over 30 years is $45 less per month.
“We've also seen fixed rates also take a dive, with the average three-year fixed rate falling by 0.19 percentage points from 5.17% to 4.98% now. If you fixed a $300,000 home loan in January you would be paying $35 more per month than if you fixed now.”
The lowest variable rate available is with Heritage Bank, at 4.39%, with three year fixed rates starting at 4.59% - with ME Bank and Greater Building Society offering this rate.
“Lenders have continued to cut home loan rates this year because their funding costs have fallen and they have passed on the savings to borrowers, they also have room to move as they haven't passed on all of the cash rate cuts since rates began to fall in November 2011,” she said.
“Fixed loans are usually a barometer for the direction of interest rate movements and with fixed rates still falling, it could be a sign that another cash rate cut could happen next year.”
Just one lender has dropped their variable home loan rate this month, but some more may be seen, she suggested.
“Despite this, interest rates are likely to eventually start rising so it's a great time to lock in a fixed rate if you're concerned about rising rates. Or borrowers could hedge their bets and split their loan so a portion is with a variable rate and a portion is fixed,” Hutchison said.
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Good time to lock in a fixed rate: Finder

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The Reserve Bank has stated on more than one occasion that mortgage repayments are on average some 15% ahead of schedule, the equivalent of some two years worth of monthly payments. If this is true then despite endless talk of stretched household budgets, then we should actually see mortgage arrears declining to levels not seen in years.
The latest Fitch Ratings Dinkum Index, which records 30 and 90 day mortgage arrears, showed that arrears have declined to seven year lows (30 day) and fiveyear lows (90 day) respectively.
From <a href="https://www.bankingday.com/nl06_news_selected.php?act=2&amp;nav=13&amp;selkey=17947" target="_blank">Banking Day</a>:
"The strong housing market is suppressing home loan arrears. 
"Fitch Ratings, in its latest Dinkum Index analysing the September 2014 quarter, put loans 30 days or more past due at their lowest level since late 2007. 
"Fitch said delinquencies dropped by 14 basis point to 1.08%.
"Serious arrears also benefited, with loans 90 days or more in arrears sitting at 0.47%, the lowest level since December 2009.
"Arrears are expected to remain largely stable in fourth quarter 2014, Fitch said, due to low, stable interest rates, a strong housing market and lending, and relatively low (albeit rising) levels of unemployment."
Great to hear. While other developed countries have seen serious 90+ day arrears on up to 10 to 15 or more in every 200 mortgages in the period following the financial crisis, the equivalent figure for Australia is incredibly now below 1, which is wonderful news. The reasons are clear enough, being a combination of very low interest rates and the unique structuring of so many loans in Australia which <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/stress" target="_blank">maintain repayments at the same level</a> when interest rates fall, thus allowing borrowers to build up sizeable repayment buffers when variable mortgage rates have been declining over a period of years.
This mirrors what has been <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/genworth-q3" target="_blank">reported by Genworth (ASX: GMA) in Q3</a>, that delinquency rates have been cascading lower by book year since FY2008.
<img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iMv-Wc5yns0/VGaYJx9iI_I/AAAAAAAAROg/lbdTaLoqO7w/s640/GMA1.jpg">
That's great to see, with foreclosures in Australia now considered to be "<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/stress" target="_blank">vanishingly rare</a>".
Arrears to Rise from Exceptionally Low Levels? 
One would think almost certainly, yes. There is realistically only one direction in which mortgage arrears can head over the medium term from such a pleasingly low base. Relatively low interest rates are more or less a 'shoo-in' for most of the remainder of this decade, but the other major factor which can cause mortgage arrears - unemployment - is rising in eminence across many regions of Australia.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rebYUuOgS_E/VI3XQNQk8UI/AAAAAAAAR5g/9PSOV1YkK7Q/s1600/b2.jpg">
Where are the Risk Areas?
We will take an updated look at the latest unemployment rates by region data on Thursday of this week, but here are a few of the regions where unemployment rates have increased concerningly.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-E86GaqEpdTw/VI2Xh26I1-I/AAAAAAAAR4w/WXLYkm7KToU/s1600/LOGAN.jpg">
<a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/abc-cuts-10-percent-of-staff-and-sa" target="_blank">Recent reports have also highlighted</a> the elevated risk of credit default in a number of Queensland regions as the unemployment rate rises.
We'd add to this list of potential risk areas parts of South Australia where a weak labour market and consumer confidence have contributed to 5 year declines in median house prices in a number of outer suburbs such as Davoren Park, Elizabeth North,  Elizabeth East, Craigmore, and so on.
Fair Warning - Industry Closure Risk
Some on the chat forums have chosen to highlight that withdrawal of Holden may only directly result in a relatively small number of jobs and they have therefore dismissed the risk as insignificant.
That's one way to look at it, but a market is made up by the full range of views, and in this case we'll take the sell side of the equation.
As pointed out here previously, when one considers the total number of jobs which are likely to be lost from the shuttering of the car manufacture industry over the next few years - including from suppliers and support industries - in concert with flow-through impacts of rescinded business investment, consumer spending and so on - the potential impact on economic output of some $29 billion and up to 200,000 jobs nationwide could be <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-14/study-warns-carmakers-exit-could-see-200000-jobs-lost/5389682" target="_blank">prodigious</a>.
It's easy to dismiss the closure of the Holden plant as overblown, and to state that those who do lose their jobs can be redeployed.
Indeed so, but whether or not they can be redeployed within South Australia is another matter entirely.
If the forecast 24,000 jobs are lost in the state, note that the economy has taken fully seven years to add 24,000 jobs, and has added a net total of zero over the last four.
<img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qF47FgelF4g/VI3jrxoShBI/AAAAAAAAR5w/ceSC1asejvE/s1600/SOuth%2BAustralia.jpg">
A similar point stands for Geelong (and I own property in Geelong, so this is not merely the viewpoint of vested interest).
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Positive Investment Decisions
Buying a home to live in is one thing, of course, but the primary advantage that a property investor has is that they are not compelled to buy property anywhere or at any time, so the shuttering of an entire industry should act as an automatic red flag.
"It might not be that bad" is not a compelling case for an investment decision.
Anyway, that's our view - that you should look for thriving economies, not those about to be sideswiped by a king-hit - so fair warning.
We'll provide an updated report on trends in elevated unemployment rates by region on Thursday of this week, so stay tuned for that.
In the meantime if there is one phrase to look out for which should always make property investors wince it is that "prices can't fall further in this region", which is another alarm bell which has so often foreshadowed financial loss.
MYEFO Impacts - The "Shock Absorber"
In the forthcoming MYEFO Treasurer Hockey will announce that the budget will be used as a "shock absorber" to shield the downside to the Australian economy from its declining terms of trade, driven by falls in key commodity prices, in particular that of iron ore.
<img src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cXcsJ4JwoNs/VI3Ln628PBI/AAAAAAAAR5M/VdpOpY9Q8U8/s1600/IO%2Bprice.jpg">
What will this "shock absorber" mean? We will have to wait for the details, but one might expect to hear announcements concerning the following:
<ul>
<li>heavy government expenditure of infrastructure projects; and </li>
<li>thousands of jobs to be cut from the merger of closure of scores of government agencies, particularly in Canberra.</li>
</ul>
Potentially thousands of job cuts does not bode at all well for Canberra or the ACT housing markets in 2015, with rents already declining and now dwelling prices looking set to follow suit. Pass.
"Busting Labour Market Myths" 
Our chart packs have consistently revealed a worrying trend in Australia in recent years, that with the honourable exception of Queensland, <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/city-versus-country-widening-jobs-gulf" target="_blank">regional Australia is not creating jobs</a> in aggregate and unemployment is therefore rising worryingly in many regional centres and net population growth must in turn slow.
One of Australia's leading economic journalists Peter Martin takes aim at another of the great labour market myths in his piece 'Busting Labour Market Myths' in <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/busting-labour-market-myths-why-your-job-is-far-more-secure-than-you-think-20141213-125ggs" target="_blank">The Age</a>: "Of course we'll tell our children that they'll be doing more telework – working from home, cafes, etc. 
"Everyone knows that's true. The last government said it enough while spruiking the NBN. 
"It isn't true - at least not so far.
"Only 5% of us describe home as our main place of work, and nearly all of them are self-employed. 
 "Only around 1.5% of workers for employers describe home as their main place of work, and if anything the proportion has slipped in the past decade.
 "All up, the labour market is changing (fewer of us are employed in manufacturing for instance) but it isn't changing in many of the ways that we think.".
Quite so.
Working from Home has Declined
The short report which Peter Martin is referencing here is the enlightening <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1111/1467-8462.12085/" target="_blank">Two Decades of Change</a> document, which is well worth a read.
The report reveals some interesting trends, highlighting for example how the southern states have fallen way behind in terms of their economies and labour market growth, with employment growth in Tasmania and now South Australia in particular having tanked and unemployment now rising, trends which have been highlighted here previously.
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-hbgxMa94YRQ/VI2aCWTYmkI/AAAAAAAAR48/X1J9YlRNRzw/s1600/sa.jpg">
The Working from Home 'Phenomenon'? On the working from home phenomenon, the Two Decades of Change report is quite conclusive:
"Yet another often-heard claim is that, facilitated by changes and advances in information and communication technology, work is increasingly being undertaken away from conventional workplaces, and more specifically in the homes of workers. 
"However, the available survey evidence provides little support for such a claim. Analysis of data from the HILDA Survey by Wooden and Fok (<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1111/1467-8462.12085/#aere12085-bib-0022" title="Link to bibliographic citation">2013</a>), for example, shows:
"While taking work home is relatively common (with almost 23% of Australian workers reporting doing at least some paid work at home each week), for relatively few workers (just 5%) could home be described as their main location of work.
"The majority of this small group of home workers is self-employed—only a little over 1% of employees spend the majority of their work hours at home.
"If anything, the incidence of working at home fell over the course of the last decade.
"Such conclusions are broadly consistent with survey data periodically collected by the ABS as part of its Locations of Work Survey (ABS Cat. no. 6275.0). 
"Notably, the incidence of employed persons who report that their home is their main place of employment fell slightly between 2000 and 2008 (from 7.1% to 6.4%)."
This is indeed commensurate with what was concluded by the ABS Locations of Work survey as reported here previously.
In fact, the principal reason given by survey respondents for working from home was that they had become "snowed under" and fallen way behind on their workloads in the their main workplace.
All available <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/x" target="_blank">studies</a> and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/rba-on-housing" target="_blank">reports</a> have shown that, quite apart from undertaking a sea-change and heading en masse for the regions, Australia's capital cities are in fact becoming increasingly centrally focused in terms of population growth, dwelling price growth, economic growth and employment growth.
You can visit <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) or Pete's <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blog</a>.
His latest book is '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' .
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Mortgage arrears decline to seven year lows... so where are the risks?

<html><body>
Reserve Bank (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens has “hosed down speculation” of a rate cut, according to an ANZ Research analysis of his latest media comments.
Stevens told The AFR that the problem with the economy is a lack of "animal spirits", rather than an issue with the price of money, and emphasized the importance of providing a steady and predictable monetary policy.
He pointed to the swinging expectation of economists and experts as to where rates would move to and when.
"We have had, a few times over the period of stability that we have already had, at various times some commentators saying they still think rates might go down a bit. That swung to “They will go up”. It swung around a few times," Stevens said.
ANZ Research’s latest bulletin notes that Stevens’ comments have reinforced their view that the "RBA clearly would prefer a substantially lower exchange rate to lower interest rates, and while it hasn’t closed off the possibility of a rate cut, at the moment it seems less than convinced that a lower cash rate would assist the recovery".
They pointed specifically to his comments that a cut in the cash rate “has to remain an open question” and that if the RBA believes it will assist confidence then it may be on the table for consideration in 2015.
Stevens noted that the position of the RBA is to foster confidence by giving people the sense that they can plan ahead. While he noted that not everything is predictable, their aim is to make it as stable as possible.
"If you think that confidence is the thing that is kind of the missing ingredient, then what can we do for confidence? The answer that I came up with is we could be steady and predictable and be clear about that. So that’s what we have sought to do," he said.
The main factor ANZ Research is watching will be the Australian dollar.
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