<p>The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.</p>

<p>Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.</p>

<p>The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.</p>

<p>The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.</p>

<p>Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.</p>

<p>Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.</p>

<p>Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.</p>

<p data-end="345" data-start="110">The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.</p>

<p data-end="689" data-start="347">Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.</p>


Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

<p>Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.</p>

<p>The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.</p>

<p>The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" /></p>

<p>SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.</p>

<p>“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.</p>

<p>The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.</p>

<p>“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" /></p>

<p>The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.</p>

<p>Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.</p>

<p>The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.</p>

<p>COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" /></p>

<p>“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.</p>

<p>The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.</p>

<p>The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.</p>

<p>Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.</p>

<p><em>Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a></em></p>


First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.</p>

<p>The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.</p>

<p>The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.</p>

<p>SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”</p>

<p>The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" /></p>

<p>The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.</p>

<p>A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.</p>

<p>Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" /></p>

<p>The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.</p>

<p>Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.</p>

<p>The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.</p>


First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

<p>Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;</p>

<p>“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."</p>

<p>Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;</p>

<p>"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;</p>


Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-6" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-2" dir="auto">
<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-2" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:5a5ab36c-8dd3-454c-b456-c501f22f0eb4-0" dir="auto">
<p data-end="157" data-start="0">The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.</p>

<p data-end="459" data-start="159">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]</p>

<p data-end="651" data-start="461"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.</p>

<p data-end="950" data-start="653">Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.</p>

<p data-end="1081" data-start="952">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]</p>

<p data-end="1307" data-start="1083">Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.</p>

<p data-end="1522" data-start="1309">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]</p>

<p data-end="1714" data-start="1524">Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.</p>

<p data-end="1945" data-start="1716">[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]</p>

<p data-end="2220" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="1947">More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.</p>
</section>
</section>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]</p>


SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

<p>National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.</p>

<p>NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.</p>

<p>Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.</p>

<p>NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.</p>

<p>"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.</p>

<p>They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.</p>

<p>"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.</p>

<p>NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;</p>

<p>CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.</p>

<h2><strong>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</strong></h2>

<p>According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;</p>

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			<p><strong>Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025</strong></p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			<p><strong>Current loan size</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p><strong>Drop in monthly repayment</strong></p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p><strong>New monthly repayment</strong></p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			<p>$600,000</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>-$92</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>$3,907</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			<p>$750,000</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>-$114</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>$4,884</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			<p>$1M</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>-$153</p>
			</td>
			<td>
			<p>$6,512</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			<p>Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.</p>
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

<p>Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.</p>

<p>“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.</p>

<p>“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>


Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

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<div class="column">Housing finance decreased in April, with investor finance posting a sharp 5 percent decline in the month.</div>
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<div class="column">Looking through today’s soft monthly growth, the housing market has shown clear cyclical improvement recently, reflected by the pick-up in house prices and building approvals. This cyclical rebound is likely to be further supported by the May interest rate cut. However, today’s data indicates that growth in the current cycle will be limited by soft household income growth, the presence of macroprudential policy targets, and concerns about future tightening of housing policy.</div>
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<br>Today’s data was driven by a sharp monthly decline in investor lending. This continues to reflect the negative impact of macro prudential policy targets on investor lending, with lenders mindful of the regulatory investor lending growth target. Nonetheless, investor demand for housing is likely strengthen in the coming months, supported by the solid pick- up in house prices (Figure 3).</div>
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<br>In comparison, owner-occupier finance posted an increase in April, with upgrader finance higher and first home buyer finance lower in the month. While upgraders remained the key to driving owner-occupier lending, first home buyers continued to be weighed down by housing affordability concerns, which are being amplified by weak wage growth.<br>Finance for the purchase or construction of new dwellings declined sharply in the month.</div>
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<div class="column">However, the pipeline of existing housing construction remains solid. Building approvals have trended higher recently, and are likely to be supported in the coming months by both solid house price gains and lower interest rates. As such, we continue to expect that housing construction activity will remain elevated in 2016, however today’s data indicates that any further growth is likely to be modest compared to recent years. </div>
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<p><em>David Cannington is senior economist, ANZ and Daniel Gladwell is economist. The can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/personal/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Australian mortgage lending slows in April: ANZ Research

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<p><span>GUEST OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>No surprises as the RBA held its cash rate steady at 1.75 percent. </span></p>
<p><span>Of course, this follows an action-packed and finely-balanced May meeting, where the central bank cut to a new record low. Now the question being asked is: what's next and when? Is it one and done, or is there more to come? </span></p>
<p><span>The statement was very light on any hints about what might happen next. In short, there was no real forward guidance. The statement noted that 'inflation has been quite low ... [and that] ... this is expected to remain the case for some time'. </span></p>
<p><span>At the same time, it noted that non-mining domestic demand has been 'expanding at a pace at or above trend'. In our view, the RBA will need to see the Q2 CPI print (due on 27 July) before it would consider cutting further. Our central case is for a 25bp cut in August, to 1.50%, and for the RBA to remain on hold in subsequent quarters. </span></p>
<p><span>Facts </span></p>
<p><span>The RBA held its cash rate unchanged at 1.75 percent, as expected by 25 of 26 economists in the Bloomberg survey (including HSBC). Immediately prior to the announcement the market was pricing a 6 percent chance of a 25bp cut. </span></p>
<p><span>Implications </span></p>
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<p><span>Is it one and done, or is there more to come? Well, if you are looking for hints in today's post- meeting statement, you may be sadly disappointed. It was more backward-looking than usual and contained very little that could be described as forward guidance. </span></p>
<p><span>On growth, the statement described the Q1 GDP figures suggesting that, despite 'a very large decline in business investment' non-mining domestic demand had been 'expanding at a pace at or above trend'. At the same time, it stated that 'inflation has been quite low' and that this was expected 'to remain the case for some time' (the one clear reference to the future). The RBA noted that low inflation was due to 'very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world'. The statement did not attempt to reconcile the apparent disconnect between the strong local growth and weak inflation. </span></p>
<p><span>On the housing market, the statement noted that although 'supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards' ... 'dwelling prices have begun to rise again'. It then also noted that 'a considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream' leaving the reader to draw the conclusion that boosted supply might help to slow housing price growth in the future. </span></p>
<p><span>More generally, the statement noted that low interest rates and the lower AUD are assisting the rebalancing act to proceed, although the central bank repeated that an 'appreciating exchange rate could complicate' the rebalancing of growth.</span></p>
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<p><span>Finally, the statement noted that a key reason for not moving this month was that the RBA had just cut the cash rate in May. Again, this is quite backward-looking. It seems to us that the central bank will need to see the Q2 CPI print (due on 27 July) before it would consider cutting further. </span></p>
<p><span><em><a href="https://www.about.hsbc.com.au/hsbc-in-australia/management-team" target="_blank">PAUL BLOXHAM</a> IS CHIEF ECONOMIST (AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND) FOR HSBC. </em></span></p>
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RBA on hold, with little forward guidance: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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<p>The founder of Aussie Home Loans John Symond doesn't think we need cheaper official interest rates at the moment.</p>
<p>Talking to Ross Greenwood on the 2GB Macquarie network's Money News following the June interest rate hold, Symond also said that he doesn't think the Reserve Bank will cut anytime soon.</p>
<p>'I don't think they will, or they should," he said.</p>
<p>"The economy would have to take a hit, I believe, for the Reserve Bank to be coughing it up to drop rates even further.</p>
<p>"The further they go down the further they will have to eventually go up.</p>
<p>"I don't think we really need cheaper official rates at the moment."</p>
<p>Symond said that he thinks the Reserve Bank knows the interest rate drops don't have the impact it used too.</p>
<p>"I think we're beyond that and I think the Reserve Bank acknowledges that the interest rates lever dropping rates no long has the impact it used to because they're so low."</p>
<p>"I just don't believe someone would decide now's the time to go out and buy because rates have dropped a 1/4 percent.</p>
<p>"We've got the lowest interest rates in history, so by comparison to over the last decade the rates are just so cheap and I don't believe it's now a factor of will rates go cheaper if they do it'll give me confidence to go and buy</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 12.16px; line-height: 1.3em;">Talking about growing the economy, Symond suggested that hopefully once the election is out of the way the people will get back to making decision moving forward.</span></p>
<p>"We've got to find ways t grow the economy and that's the critical path now."</p>
<p>"You can't just say low interest rates are going to cure all our issues"</p>
<p>"We need to grow the economy and the sooner we get this election out of the way, hopefully the sooner the people get back to making decisions moving forward.</p>
<p>Talking about what the loan book looks like now, Symond suggested that there haven't been significant improvements.</p>
<p>"There's still a healthy level of activity in sectors of housing," he said.</p>
<p>"Investors are still very very subdued because of all the new lending rules and government rules.</p>
<p>"First home buyers are still struggling to try to get into the market."</p>
<p>He said that refinancers are on the increase and so they ought to, as research he did recently showed over half of all people with home loans haven't looked at refinancing in the past 10 years which is costing Australians billions of dollars.</p>
<p>Symond suggested competition is still as "red hot" as he's seen it in his nearly 50 years.</p>
<p>He concluded by suggesting there won't be another cut soon despite economists beliefs<span style="font-size: 12.16px; line-height: 1.3em;">, but potentially some months away.</span></p>
<p>"Im hoping it won't happen because I'm hoping the Australian economy does better than it has and it doesn't go backwards because every time rates go down, it's a measure of the health of our economy.</p>
<p>"The further down it goes, the further the state of our economy goes down hill and we don't want that," he added.</p>
<p>You can listen to the <a href="https://www.2gb.com/article/money-news-full-show-tuesday-7-june-2016" target="_blank">full interview here.</a></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

John Symond says rates don't need to go lower 

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<p>The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.75 percent and provided no explicit forward guidance. The Bank seems confident that the transition to non-mining activity is continuing but remains worried about low inflation.</p>
<p>The lack of forward guidance means that an August rate cut is a much closer call than we had previously thought. That said, we continue to think that the extent of the downgrade to the RBA’s inflation forecasts and ongoing weak price pressures suggest that on balance the Bank will cut rates again in August, although it is now more data dependent.</p>
<p>DETAILS</p>
<p>The lack of a clear easing bias was the big surprise in today’s statement. The large downgrade to inflation in the May Statement on Monetary Policy suggested to us that more than 25bp of easing was required to keep real interest rates low, where the RBA’s forecasts also hinged on a further easing. Moreover, the Bank rarely cuts rates only once.</p>
<p>Last week’s strong Q1 GDP results were clearly encouraging for the Bank. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens noted that “despite a very large decline in business investment...other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend”. The Bank also seems more positive about the labour market, noting the indicators are “consistent with continued expansion of employment in the near term”.</p>
<p>We expect, though, that the weak inflation outlook will continue to dominate the policy outlook. The Bank reiterated its concerns over inflation, noting that “inflation has been quite low...[and] this is expected to remain the case for some time”. The large downgrade to the RBA’s forecast inflation profile, where the average inflation forecast remains at or below the lower bound of the 2-3 percent target band for the entire forecast period, strongly suggests to us that the Bank will need to ease further. The recent uptick in the exchange rate and a possible delay to Fed tightening only puts further pressure on the cash rate.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the RBA seems relatively unperturbed by the recent pick-up in housing. The RBA acknowledged the recent rise in house prices, but noted that “lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments” and that “considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream”.</p>
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<p><span>While the RBA continued to reference any currency appreciation as a factor that can complicate the economic adjustment, these words will be superseded by the lack of an explicit bias in the final paragraph of the statement. With this guidance lacking, and weeks before we get any further read on either inflation or wages, the AUD will likely perform better on crosses, most notably AUD/NZD. Further depreciation against the USD will now become contingent on more USD strength. </span></p>
<p><span>Rates markets have reacted to the RBA’s statement with higher yields across the term rates structure. RBA meeting date OIS pricing has shifted between 4-5 basis points higher, with the first full cut priced for June 2017. Further out the curve, the 3 year rate has risen by 8 basis points. We expect that significant sell-offs will find a base, particularly given a bounce in the AUD may be seen as a reason for easing. </span></p>
<p><span>OUTLOOK </span></p>
<p><span>The lack of an explicit easing bias makes an August rate cut a much closer call than we had previously thought. </span><span>That said, we continue to expect a further cut given the size of the downgrade to the Bank’s inflation forecasts and the fact that the mid- point inflation forecast remains at or below the lower bound of the 2-3% target band for the entire forecast period. </span></p>
<p><em>Felicity Emmett is head of Australian Economics, ANZ, Daniel Been is senior FX strategist and Martin Whetton is senior rates strategist. They can be contacted <a href="https://www.anz.com/corporate/research/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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RBA on hold in June and a higher bar for an August cut: ANZ's Felicity Emmett

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>At its June meeting the Reserve Bank Board decided to keep the cash rate steady at 1.75 percent.</p>
<p>This decision was widely expected but it did surprise us that the Board decided to provide no guidance on future policy movements.</p>
<p>The final ‘guidance’ sentence was neutral: “Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May meeting, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and inflation returning to target over time.”</p>
<p>Taken literally this statement does not preclude the possibility of further action in coming months, merely stating that it was not deemed necessary to take any action at the current meeting – a decision to move in June was never envisaged.</p>
<p>As we know from the minutes of the May meeting the Board deliberated about whether to move in May or whether to await further information and clearly with rates so low every adjustment must be considered very closely. As the forecasts in May stand the Board does not expect underlying inflation to return to the bottom of the band until 2017 and that will be supported by a second rate cut as indicated by market pricing in May.</p>
<p>Further information on whether that assessment in May is correct will be provided in the June quarter inflation report which prints on July 27 and will be available for the August Board meeting. It is our assessment that the information in that report will confirm to the Board that another cut is indeed necessary. However, it is clear from this statement that such an outcome is not considered automatic by the Board.</p>
<p>The commentary around inflation – “Inflation has been quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.” – opens up a potential debate as to whether the Board may be becoming more flexible on the timing for which underlying inflation returns to within the target band.</p>
<p>At the moment that timing is clearly within the two year forecasting framework and we expect that that discipline will be retained in the near term. Consequently any assessment of the inflation outlook when the June report is received will need to include a forecast that inflation returns to the band over the two year horizon. Further out if global pressures make it clear that achieving that target would require too large a further fall in rates then more flexibility may be adopted.</p>
<p>Certainly that approach would be consistent with our view that the expected cut in August would represent the low point in the cycle.</p>
<p>Whereas in previous statements prospects for policy were mainly driven by the commentary around demand, prospects in today’s statement are all about the inflation outlook. On the demand front, the statement is as expected reasonably constructive: “… recent data suggest overall growth is continuing …” and “other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend.”</p>
<p>The most interesting commentary is around the housing market. Clearly the risk of pursuing an inflation target that is too high in the current disinflationary world is around over-stimulating asset markets and in the case of Australia, specifically housing.</p>
<p>The statement recognises that the recent rate cut may have rebooted housing but points out a number of reasons why this recovery is unlikely to be sustained, mainly around tighter lending guidelines, both voluntary and due to regulation, and expected increases in supply. This observation is important because it appears to allay any concerns that a further easing might over-stimulate the housing market.</p>
<p>Concerns around the Australian dollar remain. The surprise rate cut in May produced considerable dividends for the Bank in making a major contribution to the AUD falling from 0.77 to 0.72 US. That result would have been extremely welcome but it would also have been clear to the Bank that the adjustment in the currency was partly conditional on a follow up cut. The response to today’s statement has been for the AUD to lift further to above 0.74 and the statement does note an appreciating AUD will complicate the growth outlook and is therefore unwelcome.</p>
<p>The commentary around the world economy continues to be cautious with an uncertain outlook for China still the main focus.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>In March 2015, following the decision, which came as some surprise, to cut rates in February 2015, the Bank chose to adopt a clear easing bias. That bias was acted on in May 2015. It was our expectation that a similar approach would be adopted at today’s meeting – that is, a surprise move would not have been considered without a likely plan to follow up with another. Unlike last March, no guidance was given today about that likelihood.</p>
<p>However, we cannot overlook the facts that under the current arrangements the Board will feel obliged to provide an inflation outlook which sees underlying inflation return to the target band within the forecasting period.</p>
<p>That period ends in June 2018 but will be extended to December 2018 at the August meeting. Based on the information available in May we do not expect that there will be a sufficient change in that information in the June quarter inflation report to justify a forecast return to the band even with a six month extension to the forecast period without a further rate cut. That task will be further complicated if the recent rebound in the AUD is sustained.</p>
<p>Consequently we recognise that a prudent central bank dealing with record low interest rates will seek to retain maximum flexibility as shown today but do not believe that today’s lack of guidance precludes a second rate cut in August. However, we do accept that the August cut is likely to represent the bottom of the interest rate cycle.</p>
<p><span><em>Bill Evans </em></span><em>is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.</em></p>
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August rate cut still likely: Westpac's Bill Evans

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<p>The Reserve Bank has left the cash rate at a record low of 1.75 percent. The Reserve Bank has maintained a “neutral stance” – indicating that policymakers will assess more information before deciding the next move on rates.</p>
<p>What does it all mean?</p>
<p>Did the Reserve Bank get it wrong when it cut rates last month to fresh record lows? Certainly all of the subsequent economic data have been strong including economic growth, which is now running at the fastest annual rate in 31⁄2 years.</p>
<p>The short answer is no. The Reserve Bank was already expecting Australian economic growth to be running at a 3 per cent annual rate over the next year. The Reserve Bank is always forward-looking – and despite expectations of solid 3 per cent growth, it cut rates. Simply, the Reserve Bank feels that the economy can run at a 3 per cent plus rate and not generate higher inflation. </p>
<p>Certainly the environment has changed – with companies challenged by “disruption” at every turn, causing managers to focus on increasing productivity and efficiency and reducing costs rather than lifting prices. The Reserve Bank now assumes that underlying inflation will hold in a 1.5-2.5 percent range. That is, a mid-point of 2 percent is expected – the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 percent target band.</p>
<p>Since the rate cut in May, the Aussie dollar has fallen from US77 cents to around US73-74 cents. And the currency is weaker despite higher commodity prices. The RBA notes “Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate overall is helping the traded sector.”</p>
<p>The accompanying statement was quite short. But there are interesting observations on housing. The RBA notes a lift in home prices. But it warns “considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities.” </p>
<p>Perspectives on interest rates</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank left the cash rate at a record low of 1.75 percent. The previous rate cut was in May 2016 (25 basis points), taking the cash rate to a record low of 1.75 percent. </p>
<p>There have been 11 rate cuts since November 2011.</p>
<p>The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3.00 percent to 4.75 percent.</p>
<p>What are the implications of today’s decision?</p>
<p>We expect the Reserve Bank to stay on the interest rate sidelines until August. At the August meeting the Reserve Bank will have digested the latest inflation data (released end July) as well as the Brexit decision in the UK and the June and July rate decisions in the US.  </p>
<p>On balance rates still have scope to fall. It all depends on the Reserve Bank’s assessment on how fast the economy can grow without generating inflation above the upper end of the 2-3 percent target band.</p>
<p>This is a brave new world where old assumptions are being challenged. Investors need to do this also. In the past investors could work on the assumption of total sharemarket returns lifting on average by 9-11 per cent. With nominal economic growth closer to 4-5 percent, expected sharemarket returns also need to be adjusted down to a similar range.</p>
<p>Returns on residential real estate have averaged 13 per cent over the past two years. But over 2011 and 2012 returns averaged 2 per cent. With housing supply set to rise, even views on high-flying real estate will need to be adjusted downwards.</p>
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<p><em>Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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Reserve Bank mulls the next move: CommSec's Craig James

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<p>Further cuts are predicted later this year, but for now the RBA has decided to leave interest rates on hold. Mozo Director Kirsty Lamont shares the five numbers you need to know: </p>
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<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: xx-large; font-family: 'arial black', 'avant garde';"><strong><img src="/images/2016/06/08/4.53.jpg" alt=""></strong></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>One month has passed since the RBA’s record rate cut and the new average variable rate has settled at 4.53 percent.</span> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: xx-large; font-family: 'arial black', 'avant garde';"><strong><img src="/images/2016/06/08/126%20.jpg" alt=""></strong></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: xx-large; font-family: 'arial black', 'avant garde';"><strong> </strong></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>This is how much the average borrower could save in monthly repayments if the RBA slashes the cash rate to 1% as predicted by some economists.</span> </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><img src="/images/2016/06/08/2.07.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>This is the measly rate paid by the average at-call savings account after rates fell by 25 bps across the board in May. </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: xx-large; font-family: 'arial black', 'avant garde';"><strong><img src="/images/2016/06/08/13.jpg" alt=""></strong></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>Savers may find relief by stashing their cash in a term deposit account with 13 providers raising their rates by an average of 28 bps across various terms last month. </span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: xx-large; font-family: 'arial black', 'avant garde';"><strong><img src="/images/2016/06/08/17.44.jpg" alt=""></strong></span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><span>The average credit card rate is virtually unchanged at 17.44 percent despite the record low cash rate. In fact, Mozo found the average credit card rate is now 10 times higher than official rates.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal"><em>For more information, <a href="https://mozo.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.</em></p>
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RBA holds on rates: Mozo’s five-need-to-know numbers

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<p>RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' June 2016 statement</p>
<p>At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent.</p>
<p>The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, but conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China's growth rate moderated further in the first part of the year, though recent actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term outlook.</p>
<p>Commodity prices are above recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.</p>
<p>In financial markets, conditions have generally been calmer for the past several months following the period of volatility early in the year. Attention is now turning to some particular event risks. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.</p>
<p>In Australia, recent data suggest overall growth is continuing, despite a very large decline in business investment. Other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend. Labour market indicators have been more mixed of late, but are consistent with continued expansion of employment in the near term.</p>
<p>Inflation has been quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.</p>
<p>Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate overall is helping the traded sector. Over the past year, growth in credit to businesses has picked up, even as that to households has moderated a little. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.</p>
<p>Indications are that the effects of supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards in the housing market. Separately, a number of lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. Dwelling prices have begun to rise again recently. But considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities.</p>
<p>Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May meeting, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and inflation returning to target over time.</p>
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Apartment supply is an issue: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' June 2016 statement

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<p><span>The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30 today with the decision to hold rates at 1.75 percent.</span></p>
<p><span>Monetary policy decisions are expressed in terms of a target for the cash rate, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/" target="_blank">which is the overnight money market interest rate</a>.</span></p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said the RBA has left the cash rate on hold today at the historically low setting of 1.75 percent and mortgage rates are likely to remain at their lowest levels since 1968.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">He said in making their decision the RBA is facing conflicting economic trends.  </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">"On one hand we have an economy that is growing at just over 3 percent per annum, low unemployment and a re-accelerating housing market," he said.</p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">"On the other hand the RBA is confronted with a core inflation reading which is at a record low as well as the lowest wages growth on record.  While the decision to hold rates was widely expected, the prospect of a further rate cut later this year is still well and truly on the cards.  </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">"If the June quarter inflation data, which is out a week before the RBA’s August board meeting, provides another weak reading, the chances of a rate cut in August are high.  The turnaround in the pace of capital gains across the housing sector is likely to be a concern for the RBA. </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">"CoreLogic reported a 1.6 percent rise in capital city home values last week, following a 1.7 percent rise in April. The stronger housing market conditions have been enough to reinflate the trend rate of growth which is something the RBA and the banking sector regulator are likely to be keeping a close eye on.  </p>
<p class="x_MsoNormal">"Strong housing market conditions probably wouldn’t be enough to block a further rate cut, however, if the renewed growth trend continues, there is the potential for a further regulatory response that could cool housing market demand while at the same <span id="0.5353605356067419" class="highlight">tim</span>e allowing monetary policy to stimulate the broader economy."</p>
<p>Laing+Simmons managing director Leanne Pilkington said interest rates need not drop any further.</p>
<p>"Most lenders passed on last month’s cut either in full or part. Strictly from a finance perspective, there’s never been a better time to obtain an affordable loan,” she said.</p>
<p>“But a low interest rate is just one piece of the affordability puzzle, and there are many other influences conspiring to keep a property purchase out of the realm of many young people.</p>
<p>“For first home buyers, the situation leading into the election remains unchanged, despite last month’s rate cut. Accumulating a deposit against the background of a less certain economic environment, a changing employment picture and the high cost of renting is more difficult than ever." </p>
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RBA holds at 1.75 percent at June 2016 meeting

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>After the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cut the cash rate to 1.75 percent in May due to unusually weak inflation, recent figures show GDP growth, in the March quarter, rose to 1.1 percent, higher than expected.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.7 percent, while the global economy continues to paint a motley picture. Relative to last month, the CAMA RBA Shadow Board’s policy preferences have become more hawkish; however, this reflects last month’s divergence between its preferred interest rate setting and the RBA’s actual decision. The Shadow Board attaches a 52 percent probability to a rate hold being the appropriate policy setting. The confidence attached to a required rate cut equals 11 percent, while the confidence in a required rate rise equals 37 percent.</p>
<p>Australia’s unemployment rate stood firm at 5.7 percent. The participation rate remained virtually steady at 64.8 percent. Nominal wage growth at 2.1 percent year-on-year is the lowest it has been in 18 years, reflecting slackness in the labour market and a replacement of high-wage jobs in the mining industry with lower paying jobs elsewhere in the economy.</p>
<p>Last month’s rate cut pushed the Aussie dollar four cents lower, relative to the US dollar; it is trading between 72 US¢ and 73 US¢. For the same reason yields on Australian 10-year government bonds have fallen to under 2.3 percent.</p>
<p>Domestic share prices rose to new highs. The S&amp;P/ASX200 last week closed above 5400, the highest since August 2015. Global stocks markets have been similarly buoyant.</p>
<p>Australian GDP growth was unexpectedly high in the first quarter of 2016, clocking in at 1.1 percent, compared to 0.7 percent in the previous quarter. At this rate, annual GDP growth for the 201⅚ fiscal year will equal around a healthy 3 percent.</p>
<p>The US economy is continuing to grow near potential but the most recent unemployment figures disappointed. Other countries are faring less well. Russia is hoping its economy will start growing again later this year while Brazil just announced its economy contracted by 5.4%, year-on-year, in the first quarter. China’s growth rate is expected to be between 6 percent and 7 percent; recent announcements by the Chinese government of large-scale infrastructure projects are no doubt meant to breathe new life into the Chinese economy. Europe’s economies are expanding modestly, Japan is standing still and there remains uncertainty surrounding the resilience and strength of the world’s developing economies, especially those carrying large debt burdens.</p>
<p>Consumer confidence, as measured by the Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, leapt from 95 in April 2016 to 103 in May. Business confidence, according to the NAB business survey, fell slightly from 6 to 5 in April. The AIG manufacturing index fell slightly, but the services index, also a leading economic indicator, rose.</p>
<p>The Shadow Board’s confidence measures have shifted considerably. It attaches a 52 percent probability (63 percent last month) that “no change” is the appropriate policy, an 11 percent probability (29 percent last month) that a rate cut is appropriate and a 37 percent probability (8 percent in the previous month) that a rate rise, to 2.00 percent or higher, is appropriate.</p>
<p>It must be borne in mind, however, that the Shadow Board, in contrast to the RBA which lowered the cash rate last month, preferred to keep the cash rate on hold in May. Hence, the current probabilities overall reflect a more hawkish stance relative to the RBA.</p>
<p>The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 1.75 percent equals 24 percent (29 percent in May). The estimated need for an interest rate decrease has fallen from 29 percent to 16 percent, while the need for a rate increase has risen 18 percentage points to 60 percent. A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence that the cash rate should be held steady equals 14 percent (19 percent in May), while the confidence in a required cash rate decrease equals 16 percent (19 percent in May) and in a required cash rate increase 70 percent (61 percent in May).</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/06/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-07%20at%2010.28.31%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/06/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-07%20at%2010.28.31%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>For more information, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/rba-shadow-board" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p>
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