The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower rising to 67.9 metres AHD. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

The application is being assessed under Clause 53.23, a planning pathway reserved for large-scale housing projects with an affordable housing contribution. Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The site sits opposite Fawkner Park and within walking distance of Albert Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens, the Shrine of Remembrance and the future Anzac Station. The surrounding corridor has increasingly shifted toward high-density residential development, with a mix of luxury apartment projects and office redevelopments reshaping the southern end of St Kilda Road.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
As expected the Board of the Reserve Bank decided to lower the cash rate by 25bps to 1.5% at its August Board meeting.
The key final paragraph which indicated the Board had no bias: “Taking all these considerations into account, the Board judged that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting.”.
This is not surprising since the same policy approach was taken following the May meeting when the Board also cut by 25bps.
It is worth recalling that no bias was indicated at the following June meeting but was restored at the July meeting with a cut in August following.
Consequently, this decision to exclude a bias should not be seen as ruling out another move at the next ‘live’ meeting in November.
As we have been indicating to our customers the key factor behind the cut was low inflation.
In May, the Bank lowered its underlying inflation forecast for 2016 from 2.5% to 1.5% and lowered its forecast for 2017 from 2.5% to 2%.
These sharp changes, for an inflation targeting central bank, were extremely significant and certainly laid the foundation for today’s move.
Not surprisingly, therefore, the commentary around inflation remained downbeat with recent data confirming low inflation and the outlook being for low cost pressures remaining the case for some time.
The most fertile debate around prospects for this meeting centred on housing.
There was some private sector data that indicated that house prices had responded sharply to the May rate cut, potentially posing a risk to today’s decision.
The Governor’s statement has dedicated a particularly long paragraph to the housing market.
In July house prices were described as having “risen again in many parts of the country in recent months”.
However, in today’s statement, he is more downbeat, commenting that: “dwelling prices have been rising only moderately over the course of this year”.
He also notes that the pace of lending for housing has slowed this year. Finally he concludes that “the likelihood of lower interest rates exacerbating risks in the housing market has diminished”. We can conclude from this paragraph that the Bank sees limited risk from the rate cut to a resurgence in house prices.
Commentary on the exchange rate remains the same as last month with “an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this [rebalancing in the economy]”.  So there has been no attempt to talk down the currency with the power of lower rates doing the real job.
Confirmation that the recent slowdown in jobs growth has affected the Board’s thinking comes with the labour market indicators continuing to be described as “mixed … but consistent with a modest pace of expansion in employment”.
There is no explicit clarification as to whether this modest pace will be sufficient to further bring down the unemployment rate. We will get a better indication of the Bank’s likely revised outlook for the unemployment rate in the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday.
Internationally the focus continues on China with an additional comment that “the underlying pace of China’s growth appears to be moderating”.
The outlook
Since the RBA surprised us with the May rate cut we had expected a follow up move in August.
When we saw the dimension of its inflation forecast changes that follow up move became even more likely.
The only barrier to such a decision was going to be the June quarter inflation report which would provide evidence as to whether the Bank had over-reacted to the shock in the March quarter report. While the June quarter report indicated that inflation was not as weak as in March it still confirmed that most of the disinflationary pressures apparent in March had persisted.
Our current view is that a further cut in November is not likely. With interest rates very close to their effective floor we expect that the Bank will be very patient in gathering information around the likely growth and inflation outlook. From our perspective the near term prospects for the real economy appear to be encouraging with lead indicators for the labour market improving and the lift from housing construction and services exports being sustained.
For us the real issue will be the environment in 2017 when the housing cycle will be in reverse; jobs growth may have cooled; global growth, particularly in this region, will have slowed further; and Australia’s interest rates may still be attractive to international investors. It is likely that any change in our current forecast that rates have bottomed will have been motivated by clearer prospects of those developments.Wee expect that the RBA will be similarly cautious with their assessment.
It is a little early to draw those conclusions given the unusually high degree of uncertainty, particularly around the global environment, but suffice to say that the risks to the rate outlook, particularly in 2017, are firmly to the downside. 
 
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>. Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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No surprise the RBA cut: Westpac economist Bill Evans

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STATEMENT BY GLENN STEVENS, GOVERNOR: MONETARY POLICY DECISION
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 per cent, effective 3 August 2016.
The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, but conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. Actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term growth outlook, but the underlying pace of China's growth appears to be moderating.
Commodity prices are above recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia's terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.
Financial markets have continued to function effectively. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.
In Australia, recent data suggest that overall growth is continuing at a moderate pace, despite a very large decline in business investment. Other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend. Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed, but are consistent with a modest pace of expansion in employment in the near term. 
Recent data confirm that inflation remains quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.
Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 is helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend for worthwhile purposes. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.
Supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards in the housing market. Separately, a number of lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. The most recent information suggests that dwelling prices have been rising only moderately over the course of this year, with considerable supply of apartments scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities. Growth in lending for housing purposes has slowed a little this year. All this suggests that the likelihood of lower interest rates exacerbating risks in the housing market has diminished. 
Taking all these considerations into account, the Board judged that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting.
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po-LsXgBTHBmX

Diminished low rate risks of housing boom: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' August 2016 meeting statement

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The RBA cash rate decision came out at 2.30 today with the historic decision to further cut rates to 1.5%.
"At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 per cent, effective 3 August 2016."
The Board judged that prospects for sustainable growth in the economy, with inflation returning to target over time, would be improved by easing monetary policy at this meeting.
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The bank board noted supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards in the housing market.
"Separately, a number of lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments.
"The most recent information suggests that dwelling prices have been rising only moderately over the course of this year, with considerable supply of apartments scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities.
"Growth in lending for housing purposes has slowed a little this year.
"All this suggests that the likelihood of lower interest rates exacerbating risks in the housing market has diminished."  
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CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said a slowdown in dwelling value growth may have made it easier for the RBA to cut the cash rate for the second time this year, however the primary reason for rates moving lower was likely to be the low inflation reading over the June quarter and the stubborn strength of the Aussie dollar.  
"CoreLogic’s hedonic home value index reported a 6.1 percent annual rise in capital city dwelling values over the year ending July, which is the lowest rate of annual growth since September 2013 and substantially lower than a year ago when dwelling values were rising at almost double the pace," he said.
"The annual trend of growth in Sydney has more than halved over the past 12 months, falling from 18.4 percent in July last year to 9.1 percent over the past twelve months. 
"Presuming the cash rate cut is passed on to mortgage rates, there is likely to be a renewed level of scrutiny on the housing market, with policy makers wary of a reversal in the slowing housing market growth trend. 
"A resurgence of growth could trigger a new round of regulation from APRA aimed at limiting growth in investment lending and/or tightening loan to valuation ratio requirements for lenders.  The latest interest decision is likely to keep a base level of demand across the housing market, however other factors such as affordability constraints, higher supply levels, tighter lending conditions and weak rental markets are likely to see growth conditions continue moderating back to more sustainable levels."
LJ Hooker chief executive officer Grant Harrod said the shortage of stock had underpinned price growth in the NSW and Victorian capitals over the past quarter with CoreLogic reporting Sydney’s median house price increased 5.6 percent in the quarter to June, while Melbourne rose 3.5 percent.
“There’s a sharp lack of stock on the East Coast. Auction results in Sydney and Melbourne have been consistently north of 70 per cent showing the buyer demand is still very healthy,” he said.
“We’re now a month away from the peak selling season and the RBA’s move will motivate buyers even further. Most pundits thought Sydney and Melbourne’s price growth would slow over the year – especially over winter. But very few anticipated the levels of new stock would be so low.
“There’s plenty of room in the market for sellers wanting to list now; more listings will actually bring greater levels of sustainability to the market."
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

RBA cuts interest rates at its August 2016 meeting

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Market analysts are polarised about the the future direction of monetary policy, according to the finder.com.au comparison website survey. 
More than half of the experts (56 percent, or 23/41) in the <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=1e7bd1b91e&amp;e=58cd8ffd03">finder.com.au </a>Reserve Bank Survey, the largest of its kind in Australia, believe the Reserve Bank will slash the official cost of borrowing at today’s board meeting. In a strongly divided result, 44 percent (18/41) are predicting the cash rate will hold at 1.75 percent. 
However, of those who believe the cash rate will remain unchanged, the majority of these experts (16/18, 89 percent) are predicting a cash rate cut before the year is out. November is tipped as the month we can expect this.  
The majority of experts (58 percent) predict the cash rate will bottom-out at 1.50 percent this cycle. However, only two experts who weighed in on the cash rate cycle predict that it won’t fall lower than its current rate of 1.75 percent. 
Some experts are starting to consider the possibility of rates falling lower than 1.5 percent, with 18 percent predicting the cash rate to bottom-out at 1.25 percent. A further seven economists are predicting the rate to fall even lower this cycle, with Jordan Eliseo of ABC Bullion predicting the cash rate to hit 0.50 percent before it starts to rise, and Angus Raine of Raine &amp; Horne predicting an eventual low of 0.25 percent.
Here’s what our RBA expert panel had to say:
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Cut): "It's a close call but we think the RBA will cut next week - signifying their intention to arrest the decline in inflationary pressure, which is widespread across the economy today."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Cut): "June quarter inflation data was not low enough to make an RBA rate cut certain, particularly given that recent economic data has been reasonably good. However, on balance we expect that the RBA will move again to help ensure that inflation expectations do not become entrenched below 2 percent as has been the case in several other countries, so that there is reasonable confidence that inflation will move back into the target zone in a reasonable time frame and to head off a rebound in the $A that will likely follow if it doesn’t cut again."
Dr John Hewson, ANU (Hold): "They will wait and see low inflation number confirmed."
Peter Munckton, Bank of Queensland (Hold): "The RBA are happy with current level of rates." 
Steven Pasas, Bank Of Sydney (Hold): "CPI came in higher than expected."
David Bassanese, BetaShares (Cut): "Annual underlying inflation has been confirmed as running 0.5 percent lower than the RBA expected 6 months ago."
Kishti Sen on behalf Richard Robinson, BIS Shrapnel (Hold): "No need to cut as economic growth is good, unemployment rate is stable and CPI likely to rise over next year as petrol prices rise. The RBA also needs to keep some policy bullets up its sleeve for when economy slows in the wake of coming residential downturn." 
Michael Blythe, CBA (Cut): "Low inflation."
Dr Andrew Wilson, Domain Group (Hold): "Inflation low but steady and other economic indicators slightly more positive recently  - will likely keep powder dry but still a solid case for a cut."
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold): "The evidence for a rate cut is not compelling enough at this stage. A rate change is unlikely to fix the factors influencing low inflation. In some respects, low inflation is a global issue. To pull the trigger on a rate cut now is wasted ammunition." 
Dr Mark Brimble, Griffith University (Cut): "With inflation remained well below the RBA's target range, a building range of head winds (including the expected large scale job losses from heavy manufacturing next year and a stubborn currency) together with APRA's intervention in the credit markets beginning to impact, the RBA has a close call to make, but is likely to want to get ahead of the market and cut rates to offer further support to the economy."
Atul Narang, HashChing (Cut): "The annual inflation is at just 1 percent, the weakest annual rise since 1999. It is well below RBA's target range of 2-3 percent so there is a strong chance of a rate cut. RBA's expectation that underlying inflation will be below 2-3 percent range until mid 2018 is based on the assumption that interest rates would fall to 1.5 percent." 
Peter Haller, Heritage Bank (Hold): "The inflation rate is sufficiently high to permit the RBA to stay on hold for now." 
Shane Garrett, HIA (Cut): "Inflation is at a low level, giving the RBA more room for flexibility on rates." 
Paul Bloxham, HSBC (Cut): "Inflation is too low." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Cut): "Inflation remains consistent with further easing, the question of timing is still open and the RBA may choose to delay until later in the year given the growth outlook has not deteriorated materially as yet." 
Robert Montgomery, Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (Cut): "The RBA will be hesitant to push the cash rate lower than it already is, however the June quarter inflation figures are well below the RBA’s target band of 2-3 percent, making an August rate cut likely." 
Michael Witts, ING Direct (Cut): "The inflation print and the slightly weaker domestic economy together with the higher AUD provides scope for the RBA to adjust the cash rate."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Cut): "It’s a line-ball decision that really could go either way. In the end, with inflation at its weakest in nearly 20 years, we believe the RBA will move to drop the cash rate." 
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "It's consistent with its previous hesitancy to cut even in the presence of its own forecasts of inadequate growth." 
Lynne Jordan, Liberty (Cut): "The Reserve Bank’s cash rate decision hinges on inflation, housing and labour market data – and, unfortunately, these indicators are just not leaning in the right direction to constitute a hold. The labour market has lost momentum, low wage growth is impacting consumer spending and, just this week, we’ve seen another disappointing report on inflation. RBA action and a rate cut to a new record low, is definitely on the cards in the not too distant future."
Grant Harrod, LJ Hooker (Cut): "The growth of house prices is moderating.  Added to this, inflation is at very low levels and concerns around the global economy should see the RBA cut the cash rate at its August meeting."
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Cut): "Low inflation and unemployment is too high."
John Caelli, ME (Cut): "Employment data remains soft and inflation remains well below the 2-3% desired band. The Australian dollar is also stronger than what the RBA would like."
Mark Crosby, Melbourne Business School (Hold): "While local inflation remains low the strongest driver of rate changes should remain changes to major central bank settings in coming months."
Emily Dabbs, Moody's Analytics (Cut): "Inflation data for the June quarter indicates that price pressures remain weak. The RBA preferred measure of inflation remains below its 2 percent to 3 percent target range." 
Jessica Darnbrough, Mortgage Choice (Cut): "The latest inflation data was in line with expectations, but low by historical standards. I believe this will provide the Reserve Bank with the incentive they need to cut the cash rate for the second time this year."
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): "Economic data has if anything been a little stronger than expected in recent times and overall activity remains OK. While inflation remains low, the labour market appears to be holding up well as does the housing market. These were the three key variables called out by the RBA as most important for their next rate decision in the minutes of the July Board meeting. On balance, these variables suggest the RBA will leave rates on hold, but retain an easing bias as it takes further time to see how the economy develops. That said, it will be a close call." 
Saul Eslake, Economist (Hold): "Because Q2 inflation wasn't materially lower than the RBA had anticipated when it revised its forecasts after the Q1 result (the revision which prompted the most recent rate cut in May), and because other data released since the July Board meeting haven't warranted any downward revisions to the RBA's assessment of the outlook for economic growth. There are downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation, but the RBA would be better advised holding what "firepower" it still has for a time when the case for using it is stronger."
Alan Oster, Nab (Hold): "It’s line ball decision but the economy in non mining is still doing well as is the labour market.  Inflation remains low but no urgency to cut unlike May."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "The RBA likes to set its own agenda, not follow the herd mentality."
Matthew Peter, QIC (Cut): "The Q2 inflation outturn is consistent with RBA forecasts, which sees inflation remaining below the target band for an extended period. Risks around the flow-on effect of BREXIT, potential slowdown in China, threat to international trade agreements and geopolitical risks pose sufficient reasons for the RBA to cut."
Noel Whittaker , QUT (Hold): "No urgent need to drop."
Angus Raine, Raine &amp; Horne (Hold): "The recent Federal election wait and see approach."
Ken, Sayer (Hold): "We expect a drop in Sep 2016." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing Pty Ltd (Hold): "Stable employment market, confirmation of government, and stabilised growth in the overall Australian market." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "Inflation is very low, but it is in line with expectations. If they wanted to follow up the May rate cut with another, they would have done so in June or provided a stronger indication that they were close to cutting. The low inflation outlook keeps alive the chances of a rate cut this year, but given recent RBA commentary, they do not seem to be in a position to lower rates just yet." 
Steven Milch, Suncorp (Cut): "Persistently below target inflation."
Scott Haslem, UBS (Cut): "The issue for the RBA is whether Q2's 'in line' inflation is low enough to out-work the 'implied' 25bp cut in their May SoMP forecasts, or whether the post-UK-leave resilience of both financial markets &amp; global confidence, and the strong dataflow in the US &amp; domestically, leaves the RBA drifting away from their clearer easing bias at the July meeting, back to their 'neutral' post May cut stance. On balance, we believe Q2's CPI is enough to get the RBA across the line for a (final) cut in August, but the lack of downward surprise, &amp; better recent data, makes this a close call."
Nicki Hutley, Urbis (Cut): "Inflation is significantly below the Bank's target."
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RBA August rate cut to be a close call: finder.com.au

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The regional mutual lender Newcastle Permanent has dropped home loan interest rates by up to 45 basis points ahead of the today's Reserve Bank monetary policy meeting.
Newcastle Permanent has reduced its two-year year fixed home loan rate by 5 basis points, its three-year fixed home loan rate by 10 basis points and its four-year fixed home loan rate by 45 basis points. 
All rates are now under 4 percent with the new two, three and four-year fixed rates advertised at 3.69 percent, 3.79 percent and 3.94 percent, respectively. 
All new rates are effective Monday 1 August, the Australian Broker website advised.
Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au, said fixed home loan rates continued to tumble, with more than 600 rate cuts in June and July.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Newcastle Permanent drop rates to below 4 percent fixed

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Interest rates are set to hit a new historic low of 1.50 per cent when the Reserve Bank Board meets tomorrow, a RateCity.com.au analysis of over 30 key economic indicators suggests.
The Board will consider of a number of factors including the Australian dollar, growth, the reaction to Brexit, how heated the housing market is and what our neighbours are doing.
However, there are three reasons the bank is more likely than not to pull the trigger.
Peter Arnold, data insights director at <a href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/" target="_blank">RateCity.com.au</a>, said last week’s much-anticipated quarterly inflation figures reflected a sluggish trend – coming in at 1 per cent for the year to June and 0.4 per cent for the quarter.
“The RBA will be inclined to cut rates after Wednesday's sluggish inflation figures because when rates are cut, borrowers theoretically have a little more money to spend, which increases demand – and in turn the price – of goods and services,” he said.
“While the June unemployment figures showed a jump in the number of full-time employees, overall the labour market growth slightly undershot expectations.
“A rate cut tomorrow could help to stimulate growth and make room for more jobs in the market.
“The Federal Reserve’s decision to leave US rates on hold last week puts the pressure on Glenn Stevens to cut rates in August.
“Had the Fed hiked rates in July then in theory the US dollar would be higher and the Aussie dollar lower, effectively doing the heavy lifting for the RBA Board.
“Despite a last-minute drop before inflation figures were released, the relatively-high dollar will also add to the RBA’s woes,” he said.
On top of this, fixed home loan rates continue to tumble, with more than 600 rate cuts in June and July, Arnold said.
“On average, <a href="https://www.ratecity.com.au/home-loans/3-year-fixed" target="_blank">three-year fixed home loan rates</a> are 0.36 percentage points lower than variable rates and the gap between the two is the widest it has been in over a year. This suggests the lenders are anticipating another cut,” he said. 
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Finder.com.au found 600 home loan rate cuts in June and July 2016

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According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose by 0.4 percent from the prior quarter and 1 percent over the year to June 30.
The numbers were largely in line with economist projections.
Today’s inflation figures were highlighted by the RBA as key to any decision to cut the rates again.
The yearly rise of 1 percent is the lowest since the 1999 June quarter of 1999 so leaves the door open to a further rate cut this year.
With underlying inflation at 1.5 percent year on year, which is what the RBA especially watches, and still below the target 2 percent to 3 percent, many forecasters still see the case for another rate cut.
The A$ actually jumped on the latest ABS release, but then came back a tad in late morning trade.
Opinions remained divided but the general consensus was echoed by Stephen Koukoulas ‏tweeting: "There's the rate cut locked in for next week."
CommSec also suggested the chances of an RBA rate cut next week have increased after the release of softer than expected 2Q inflation.
CommSec's Craig James then issued an advisory that noted inflation is stubbornly below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3 per cent target band. 
"And importantly it is unlikely the Bank will look to revise the target any time soon. 
"The only way that the Reserve Bank can seek to lift the inflation rate to the target band is by running the economy at a faster rate and that means cutting interest rates. 
"So a rate cut will be on the agenda at the Reserve Bank Board meeting next Tuesday.
"Will a rate cut actually boost growth? It is far from certain, but the Reserve Bank has to try. 
"But the Reserve Bank won’t continue to cut rates if it’s clear that interest rates at super-low levels have become ineffective in boosting demand."
THE ALL GROUPS CPI
<ul>
<li type="square">rose 0.4 percent this quarter, compared with a fall of 0.2 percent in the March quarter 2016. </li>
<li type="square">rose 1.0 percent over the twelve months to the June quarter 2016, compared with a rise of 1.3 percent over the twelve months to the March quarter 2016.</li>
</ul>
 OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS
<ul>
<li type="square">The most significant price rises this quarter are medical and hospital services (+4.2 percent), automotive fuel (+5.9 percent), tobacco (+2.1 percent) and new dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers (+0.9 percent). </li>
<li type="square">The most significant offsetting price falls this quarter are domestic holiday travel and accommodation (-3.7 percent), motor vehicles (-1.3 percent) and telecommunication equipment and services (-1.5 percent).</li>
</ul>
 
<a href="/images/2016/07/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-27%20at%2011.31.39%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-27%20at%2011.31.39%20AM.png" alt="">
 
<a href="/images/2016/07/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-27%20at%2011.32.54%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-27%20at%2011.32.54%20AM.png" alt="">
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Inflation figure leaves door open for August rate cut by RBA

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Non-major lender CUA has amended its lending policies to make it easier for people to access finance for apartment purchases, with the changes targeted at the owner-occupied unit market.
On the whole, these changes are designed to help more apartment buyers to qualify for a CUA home loan, CUA general manager of sales, Andy Rigg advised.
“Some of the changes are also designed to manage the risks from forecasts of an apartment oversupply in some Australian cities in the coming two years,” Rigg said.
The changes include CUA changing its definition for what it considers to be high density apartments.
Last week CUA issued a media release to correct mis-reporting of changes to its apartment loan criteria in Fairfax Media publications. 
The mutual said it had not introduced a policy of not lending for the purchase of apartments of less than 40 square metres.
It indicated that it had been its long-standing policy. 
It did recently amend its definition of a "high density apartment" to apply to buildings with six or more floors or more than 50 apartments.
It had previously classified a high density apartment as one in a complex with four floors or more than 30 apartments.
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How lenders are curtailing their high density apartment block lending

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ING Direct has cut its lowest variable rate home loan for owner-occupiers by 15 basis points. ING’s Orange Advantage loan has been reduced to 3.79 percent, effective today.
They are for owner-occupier loans with a minimum LVR of 80 percent. Fixed rate changes include a rate of 3.69 percent available for a three-year fixed term.
For more information, <a href="https://www.ingdirect.com.au" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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ING drops variable rate to record low 3.79 percent

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the July monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board confirmed the importance of next week’s June Quarter inflation report.
The key sentences in the concluding paragraph of the “Considerations for Monetary Policy” section state: “The Board noted that further information on inflationary pressures, the labour market and housing market activity would be available over the following month and that the staff would provide an update of their forecasts ahead of the August Statement on Monetary Policy. This information would allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.”
So the minutes clearly leave the door open for another rate cut in August.
But this will depend upon the June quarter inflation report’s estimate of underlying inflation. The upper bound below which a rate cut can be expected is likely to be 0.5%.
Westpac’s forecast for underlying inflation in the quarter is 0.35 percent (up slightly on our preliminary estimate of 0.30 percent) which would support the need for another move given that core inflation would only have risen by 0.55 percent over the course of the first half of 2016, raising a genuine question mark as to whether even the Bank’s current 1.5 percent/yr mid-point forecast for December 2016 could be achieved. A lower result for 2016 would also place their 2.0 percent forecast for 2017 (the bottom of the 2-3 percent target range) in jeopardy.
What are the risks to our forecast and what is the level of June quarter inflation above which the Bank would keep rates on hold?
The tone of the minutes indicates that the Bank may be leaning toward another rate cut and may have a bit more flexibility on the inflation result than we had expected.
It is useful to note the Bank’s own expectation for the print.
In the Statement on Monetary Policy in May, it forecast underlying inflation would print 1.5 percent for the year to June. With nearly 1.0 percent already being reached in the first 3 quarters, we can conclude that the Bank is expecting a 0.5 percent print for underlying inflation in the June quarter. That result would therefore be interpreted by the Bank as being in line with its overall inflation outlook, which is for underlying inflation to print 1.5 percent for calendar 2016 and 2.0 percent for calendar 2017.
The result would provide support for its forecast changes in May and indicate that it had not overreacted to the very low print of the March quarter.
Recall that the May forecasts assumed “market pricing” on interest rates, which incorporated a fully priced second rate cut by early 2017.
I think it is therefore reasonable to conclude that a 0.5 percent print for underlying inflation, although representing a sharp jump from March’s 0.2 percent print would be consistent with a follow up rate cut at the August meeting.
Another way to look at it is that 0.5 percent would still represent an annualised “run rate” of 2.0 percent which is still at the bottom of the 2-3 percent target band.
In the May Statement on Monetary Policy, the Bank noted “Although some temporary factors contributed to the low result, the data indicate that there has been broad based weakness in domestic cost pressures, reflecting low wage growth, heightened retail competition, softer conditions in rental and housing construction markets and declines in the cost of industry inputs such as fuel and utilities.”
Theoretically the pass through from the fall in the AUD should be an offset to these pressures, but there has been only limited evidence of that effect and the fall in the AUD is starting to fade with the currency being broadly stable over the last 12 months – clearly margin squeeze has had a considerable influence on limiting the pass through from AUD depreciation.
Our forecasts for the June quarter expect these trends to be sustained. Lower than expected results across the spectrum of components are consistent, in particular, with low wage pressures and margin squeeze. That stood out in the March quarter result.
Clothing and footwear; processed food; household contents and services and holidays are likely to continue to capture the low wages and retail margin squeeze effects in the June quarter. We have made allowance for those factors in our forecasts.
However, by far the most important driver of the outcome for underlying inflation is likely to be housing.
Because rent and housing construction costs are not volatile and/or impacted by significant one off factors, they are almost always included in the 70 percent of items which make up the trimmed mean – the key measure of underlying inflation. With a total of 15.4 percent in the overall CPI (construction costs, 8.7 percent; and rents, 6.7 percent) these two components represent an effective 22 percent of the trimmed mean – by far the highest weighting of any component.
In recent quarters we have seen a collapse in housing pressures, particularly outside of Sydney and Melbourne.
In the December quarter last year, growth in construction costs slowed from 1.1 percent the year before to 0.1 percent; in the March quarter, we saw a continuation of that weakness, printing 0.2 percent from 0.9 percent the year before.
The slowdown in rents has been more gradual. The December quarter slowed to 0.2 percent from 0.5 percent a year ago and slowed further still in the March quarter to 0.1 percent from 0.4 percent a year earlier.
Housing pressures in the June quarter will be critical for underlying inflation. In our preliminary estimates, we assumed 0.1 percent for rents and 0.2 percent for housing construction. In our final estimate, we have cautiously lifted these estimates to 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, pushing the underlying measure up to 0.35 percent – still comfortably in the “rate cut” zone.
If the underlying result printed above 0.5 percent due to housing, then one combination would be both rents and construction costs printing at 0.6 percent or above. These results would defy a clear slowing trend in rents, and indicate a possible but unlikely sharp recovery in construction costs and builders’ margins. While entirely possible (e.g. construction costs/ margins lifted from 0.9 percent to 1.5 percent between March and June last year), particularly following the lift in house prices (rather than specifically construction costs) in April/May in Sydney and Melbourne, we think the outcome would be unlikely.
Arguably, an unanticipated “spike” in housing costs and rents that offsets the wages/margins forces that have structurally driven down inflation pressures would be an unwelcome outcome for the Bank.
In the event of an upside surprise in the Inflation Report that was largely attributed to a spike in housing costs, the Bank is likely to be more flexible with its ultimate rate decision, but a print above 0.5% would still make it very difficult to justify a cut.
In that event, markets would readily switch their focus to a November cut, expecting some correction to the housing “spike”.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News