Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

Joel Robinson

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
</section>
</section>

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

SIERA kicks off construction at Northcliffe tower Exhale

Local Little Bay residents, along with buyers from premium postcodes across Sydney’s affluent Eastern Suburbs, have dominated purchases in developer-builder Urban Property Group’s first Eastern Suburbs apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a>.

The $250 million coastal project, one of the first new developments in the area in several years, has proven particularly popular with downsizers, especially those from Coogee and Bondi. One Double Bay downsizer paid $4.7 million for a four-bedroom penthouse, setting a new local apartment price record in the process.

Buyers have been attracted to the combination of coastal tranquillity, premium design and amenity-rich neighbourhood living. The walkable village setting, along with proximity to three of Sydney’s leading golf courses, New South Wales Golf Club, St Michael’s Golf Club and The Coast Golf Club, has also been a key drawcard.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352689]

Built across two low-rise buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/hill-thalis-architecture-urban-projects-pty-ltd">Hill Thalis</a> and set along a lush, landscaped green spine, designed by leading landscape architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/arcadia-landscape-architecture">Arcadia</a>, ESTE Little Bay offers a collection of one, two, three and four-bedroom residences with interiors by Richards Stanisich.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> Sales Director, Tom McIvor said the response to ESTE has been "nothing short of extraordinary."

“Buyers have been quick to recognise ESTE as a rare opportunity to invest in a coastal sanctuary that offers both seclusion and connectivity to the heart of Sydney,” McIvor said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352687]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">SRM Residential</a> Senior Director, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/srm-residential">Clayton Ross</a> said the local market has responded incredibly well, driven by ESTE’s exceptional location and the rarity it offers.

“We’ve seen strong interest from a variety of buyer groups, all of whom are drawn to the exclusivity and quality of the build and construction by the 4.5-star iCIRT-rated builder / developer, Urban Property Group. There’s truly nothing else like it along Sydney’s coastline.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112343 project_image_fid=352690]

The project also includes robust buyer protections, including Resilience Insurance’s Latent Defects Insurance, providing 10 years of structural cover, and an independent iCIRT-rating of the developer.

“The iCIRT-rating adds another layer of confidence,” Ross added. “Buyers see it as a safeguard for their investment and their lifestyle.” A highlight of ESTE’s offering is its exclusive wellness amenities, including a heated rooftop infinity pool and outdoor heated spa, a state-of-the-art Technogym fitness centre, and a sauna.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/este-little-bay-jennifer-street-little-bay-nsw-2036">ESTE Little Bay</a> is topped out and is on track to complete towards the end of 2026, with residents moving in before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112343]

Eastern Suburbs buyers snap up ESTE Little Bay apartments

National Australia Bank (NAB) has brought forward the timing of the first RBA cash rate cut by three months.

NAB is now expecting a cut in February, in line with ANZ and Westpac, having initially thought a cut wouldn't come until May.

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB changed its call following the August monthly inflation figures that were released at the end of September, showing it had dropped to 2.7 per cent.

"The risk has been skewed to a first cut earlier in 2025, and today’s change acknowledges the balance of risks has likely shifted sufficiently for the RBA to feel comfortable cutting a little sooner than we earlier expected," NAB noted in its latest update.

They added that the cadence of the cuts may be faster than its central profile.

"Domestic inflation pressures are cooling, but only gradually, and we continue to expect the conditions for a cut will not be in place this year.

NAB believes the easing cycle will end at 3.1 per cent by early 2026, which is five cuts from the current 4.35 per cent cash rate.&nbsp;

CBA also thinks 3.1 per cent will mark the end of the cutting cycle, while Westpac is forecasting 3.35 per cent, and ANZ is the most pessimistic at 3.6 per cent, which would be just three interest rate cuts.

<h2>What would a rate cut in February look like for borrowers?</h2>

According to&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2vK2ujS77CHs9VRvSSXzLC" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.IVvjJ-2BPT0A8C3VxtqKc6e3bj5hBuw27WFEYqovsYs7kPsgFulYrdOzeP8gI7CybJOya3_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20hPXdLlPP9yD7DvFFDBM5yrTqxvcCiMfAsW1onD-2FcriL628eYdhNQE7bwzYrxcOYnmaYfRhGl-2FEHQ6eK2uQcLxs6Cbu6Dx0bYvpi5A6enmxMWU5TkcRYrP6Z8GbXZYtc5qSoKu6eWFBQR9K7fsjXwHMmby3D3X6Yx-2BxcDcdRruTG" target="_blank">Canstar</a>, if there is a cut in February, a borrower with a $600,000 loan today and 25 years remaining would see their monthly repayments drop by $92.&nbsp;

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Impact of 0.25% pt cut in February 2025
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Current loan size
			</td>
			<td>
			Drop in monthly repayment
			</td>
			<td>
			New monthly repayment
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$600,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$92
			</td>
			<td>
			$3,907
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$750,000
			</td>
			<td>
			-$114
			</td>
			<td>
			$4,884
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			$1M
			</td>
			<td>
			-$153
			</td>
			<td>
			$6,512
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td colspan="3">
			Source:&nbsp;<a data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn%3Du001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1727774368149000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qVnp6oqATgqDUi2Frm22q" href="https://link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com/ls/click?upn=u001.xWMOP9hChsvn-2BC9O-2FebBihXIZ4cEzbiuENdxm-2Bx3-2FYEEgYMhZlKWNj5Zzy1YZ56RuASD_RgrM7qq-2BfK-2FtAHeRBLv5Qrb-2Bii5fzjLeKcP4w-2FkNgJPXygpiRhVUan3WV3QEggcf617UC8Z60RjQJZAqx7PiO7FtVJQSn0D46Zc3iTVP0kAhTTzG51cPpa5hrqz1OkSA-2BiXAxUajQ686MTtiseWBIdMdknd83aB7cOVgXlVTeHCGf3-2BcMHwfvI8TYlkUovqEhn4dj0KXf2eJGpb9-2BBv20v2akwr6-2BqLyRrlEgkJ4J-2BCCyY0x189xEHZA4Ylf8c7ChBqNIkhmftZzoFuZKFn43pw3oJVg2o1gumrpdA-2B7MB-2FBtmL2rFCI-2FXORATQHySCLVOMg7Vywv-2BqnnQUAtDz6XkvpwxdHFXh70VwKazzhJsICilEYOvP4ju0sIfi5g6TL" target="_blank">www.canstar.com.au</a>. Starting rate is the RBA existing average owner-occupier variable rate of 6.36%. Assumes banks pass the cash rate cut on in full the month after the meeting.
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

Canstar Data Insights Director, Sally Tindall, says if core inflation continues to track in the right direction, or unemployment starts to accelerate significantly, we could well see a cash rate cut as early as February of next year.

“All four big banks now believe the RBA will be ready to cut the cash rate in just over four months’ time, if not before, in the case of CBA.

“However, the outlook for both inflation and unemployment is still highly uncertain. A couple of wobbly sets of inflation data could see the RBA holding for longer, particularly if unemployment remains relatively steady."

&nbsp;

Commonwealth Bank, the nation's largest lender, still thinks the first cut will come in December.

NAB bring forward first RBA cut to February 2025

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
As widely expected following a run of mixed economic data, the US Federal Reserve remained on hold with the Fed Funds rate at 0.25-0.5 percent at its September meeting. 
While the Fed judged that the case for a rate hike has “strengthened” and that the risks to the economic outlook are now “roughly balanced” and there were three dissents in favour a rate hike, the overall impression is that the Fed’s hawkishness is very mild.
It is still waiting for more evidence of progress towards its objectives, Chair Janet Yellen repeated that the Fed can more effectively respond to rising inflation than to falling inflation as a reason to remain cautious, the Fed continues to refer to only “gradual” increases in interest rates and the Fed’s dot plot of Fed meeting participants interest rate expectations continues to decline.
It’s now showing just one hike this year (down from four at the start of the year), only two hikes next year and expectations for the long run natural rate have fallen further to 2.9 percent (from 3 percent in June).
Based on the experience of the last few years it’s understandable that the market is sceptical of Fed rate hike expectations as they have been continuously revised down.
Our base remains for the Fed to hike at its December meeting, but this will require more consistently positive economic data from the US over the next three months. The US money market’s probability of a December hike is 61 percent and this sounds about right.
<a href="/images/2016/09/22/image002.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/22/image002.png" alt="">
Source: US Federal Reserve, AMP Capital
The bottom line is that with US growth running around 2 percent or a bit less and inflationary pressures remaining below target, global risks remaining and the strength in the $US over the last two years and the recent (regulatory driven) rise in US interbank lending rates doing part of the Fed’s job for its, the Fed remains rightly cautious in removing monetary stimulus.
This is likely to remain the case for some time to come.
So for share markets the Fed remains broadly supportive, although volatility will no doubt increase again as we get closer to the December meeting. 
For Australia, the ongoing delays in Fed rate hikes are a mixed bag.
On the one hand a cautious Fed taking account of US and global economic conditions before raising rates is a good thing as it helps sustain global growth and hence demand for Australian exports. But on the other hand the continuous delays in Fed rate hikes are keeping the $A stronger than would otherwise be the case which in turn could dampen the ongoing rebalancing in the Australian economy.
Thanks to the BoJ’s commitment to continue monetary stimulus for a lengthy period and the Fed’s decision to hold, the $A has bounced above $US0.76 again. Ongoing $A strength keeps alive our expectation for another RBA rate cut, even though it’s now a close call thanks to strong Australian economic growth.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Mixed bag as Fed holds as expected, only mildly hawkish: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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The next ‘live’ RBA meeting will be November 1, Bill Evans, Westpac's chief economist suggests.
However he expect rates will be held steady in November as well as October.
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on October 4, the first meeting under the new Governor Philip Lowe.
"It is extremely unlikely that there will be any change to rates at that meeting.
"Since the cash rate returned to its historical low of 3 percent in 2013 all six subsequent cuts have occurred at meetings in February, May, August or November when the Bank has a ‘fresh’ print on inflation and is able to communicate any forecast changes in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.
"Signs of stability in the real economy point to steady rates being the most appropriate policy.
"Of course there is always the possibility of a shock from the inflation report on October 26 but both our inflation forecasts and our assessment of current high RBA ‘inertia’ around moving again this year point to stability in November," he said.
<a href="/images/2016/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-21%20at%2010.55.55%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-21%20at%2010.55.55%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Evans noted the six month annualised growth rate in the WestpacMelbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from –0.01 percent in July to +0.20 percent in August.
 
He said the August reading is consistent with a trend that has been building for some months now.
 
"The positive Index growth rate follows 15 consecutive months where growth has been below trend.
 
"It is the first above trend result since early last year and the second strongest since December 2013.
 
"The Leading Index is clearly signalling that the economy is likely to continuing growing around its long run trend rate of about 3 percent a year.
 
"That outlook is consistent with Westpac’s forecast for growth holding steadily around a 3 percent pace over the course of both this year and next."
 
The Leading Index growth rate has lifted sharply over the course of 2016, from a 1.44 percent below trend reading in March to 0.20 percent above trend in August.
 
Almost all components have contributed to the improvement. The biggest lift has come from: commodity prices (+0.64ppts).
 
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Cup Day is next "live" meeting, but Westpac's Bill Evans expects a hold decision

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September 2016 RBA minutes note weaker housing market conditions

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GUEST OBSERVER
The minutes of the September monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board provided few surprises.
Of most interest in these minutes is the expanded analysis of the Australian housing market. Media reports and some high frequency industry data had been suggesting that the markets in Sydney and Melbourne were lifting again.
The Bank’s analysis of these developments appears to be more downbeat than had been expected. House prices are described as having “declined at the national level and across most capital cities over the past year”. Inflation in the rental markets was described as “around historical lows” and the aggregate rental vacancy rate “had drifted higher and was close to its long run average”.
The Board also noted the recent lift in auction clearance rates in Sydney. It qualified that signal by noting that “the number of auctions had declined and remained lower than a year earlier”.
It also noted that in the private treaty market turnover had declined and that “the average number of days that a property was on the market had been on an upward trend”. Slowing housing credit growth was also noted. As has been the case with previous remarks from the Bank, a future oversupply in the high rise apartment market seems possible ( but not certain) with “a considerable volume of apartments scheduled to be completed over the next couple of years”.
Conditions in the labour market were assessed as little changed in recent times with the unemployment rate reasonably steady at 5.75 percent in the year. The outlook for the jobs market was noted as “consistent with only a slight change in the unemployment rate in coming months”.
Overall the data suggested that the economy had been growing around potential (2.75-3.00 percent) in the first half of the year.
One important new piece of information since the last Board meeting was the release of the capital expenditure survey. The Board noted that mining investment had continued to fall and investment intentions in that sector implied a further large decline in 2016-17, although the peak subtraction from GDP growth was still expected to have occurred in 2015-16.
Household consumption growth is expected to be around average. The Board pointed out that lower interest rates can be expected to boost consumption since borrowers benefitted more from low interest rates than had been costs to depositors. The concern has always been that borrowers used the improved cash flow to pay down debt rather than lift consumption.
Growth in Australia’s major trading partners continued to be assessed as “a little below its decade average”. In particular, the recent lift in bulk commodity prices was attributed more to a reduction in production by Chinese producers than a sustained lift in demand.
Conclusion
We have been somewhat surprised at the more downbeat tone used around the housing market. Nevertheless this sentiment is not consistent with any imminent decision to adjust rates. The next inflation report will print on October 26 but it is considered to be highly unlikely that it would precipitate any policy response. Our current forecast is for a 0.5 percent underlying print for the quarter further signalling that inflation remains at or near the bottom of the 2-3 percent target zone but there are no grounds for concern, as we saw in April, that inflation was tumbling.
In that regard the Bank has released the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy which sets out the new Governor’s agreement with the Government. We have been writing consistently on the appropriateness of widening the target band from 2-3 percent to 1-3 percent however we were never at all confident that the Bank and the Government would make such a profound change. The agreement that has been adopted is “an appropriate goal is to keep consumer price inflation between 2 and 3 percent on average over time.” This “over time” concept replaces “over the cycle” and appears to provide the Bank with more flexibility for inflation to remain at or below the bottom of the band for an extended period.
It suggests that under this agreement there will be less urgency to push inflation back to within the 2-3 percent medium term goal. The new Governor has also adopted a more explicit recognition that included in his objectives “financial stability”. The most likely channel through which interest rates can affect financial stability is via the housing market. We welcome the recognition of the importance of fostering financial stability when formulating a policy response.
On balance this new agreement reduces the urgency to cut rates further even in the face of another inflation shock.
While no one gives any chance to a policy move on October 4 there is still plenty of anticipation that the Bank will cut rates at its following Board meeting on November 1. We do not think that there is any evidence in the themes set out in these minutes or the recent Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy that would lead to a move in November. We remain comfortable with our view that the overnight cash rate will remain steady for the next few years.
BILL EVANS is chief economist of <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a> 
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RBA minutes reveal slightly surprising comfort around risks in the housing market: Westpac's Bill Evans

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Tasmania has see a spike in mortgage market activity, according to CoreLogic. But across the mainland activity in financing inquiry has been subdued.
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Tasmania sees mortgages market activity spike: CoreLogic

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/65328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Banks may still be evading increased regulation by shifting activities to shadow banking. This system is well established as part of the financial sector, but it provides products that separate an investor from an investment, making it more difficult to evaluate risk and value.
This lack of transparency increases the risk in our financial system overall, making it vulnerable to the types of shocks that caused the 2008 global financial crisis. A current example is the so-called “bespoke tranche opportunity” offered by shadow banks. This is similar to the notorious collateralised debt obligations, packages made up of thousands of mortgage loans some of which were sub-prime, blamed for the global financial crisis.
Shadow banking is comprised of hedge funds, private equity funds, mutual funds, pension funds and endowments, insurance and finance companies providing financial intermediation without explicit public liquidity and credit guarantees from governments. Shadow banking is usually located in lightly regulated offshore financial centres.
In the period leading up to the global financial crisis, a large portion of financing of securitised assets that allowed regulated banks to exceed limitations on their risk-taking was handled by the shadow banking sector.
To this day, shadow banking continues to make a significant contribution to financing the real economy. For example, according to the Financial Stability Board, in 2013 shadow banking assets represented 25% of total financial system assets. While the average annual growth in assets of banks (2011-2014) was 5.6%, shadow banking growth stood at 6.3%.
A comparison of country-based share of shadow banking assets between 2010 and 2014 reveals the largest rise for China from 2% to 8%, while the USA maintains its dominance of the shadow banking markets with around 40%.
The failure of private sector guarantees to help shadow banking endure the global financial crisis can be traced to underestimated tail risks by credit rating agencies, risk managers and investors. Credit rating agencies lack of transparency, when it comes to explaining their methods (often disguised as “commercial-in-confidence”), continue to make it difficult for a third party to check assessments.
An excess supply of inexpensive credit also contributed to risk before the global financial crisis of 2008. This was because investors overestimated the value of private credit and liquidity enhancements.
One of the key challenges for regulators now is to devise rules and standards requiring shadow markets to hold enough liquidity to be sufficiently sensitive to risk. However, where investors and financial intermediaries fail to identify new risks, it is less likely that the regulators – who have fewer resources – will succeed.
Raising capital requirements can limit the capacity of financial intermediaries to expand risky activities, although monitoring overall bank leverage may be better. This is because credit ratings cannot be relied upon in the presence of neglected risks. Similarly, monitoring rising exposure of regulated banks to shadow banking or untested financial innovations can also become part of the regulator’s arsenal.
But there remains a major problem that is unlikely to be resolved by any regulation. Regulation is meant to strike a fine balance between close supervision and allowing space for financial innovation because loss of diversity can create stronger channels of transmission and could expose financial systems to greater systemic risk.
Too little regulation encourages excessive risk taking, while too tight a regulation is bound to strangle the financial sector that provides the lifeline for the economy. Striking such a fine balance is next to impossible in a dynamic, global financial sector.
The Basel Accords, set up to strengthen regulation after the financial crisis, will continue to play a key role in helping manage systemic risk like this. For example regulations can collect data that would be useful in macroprudential regulation, taking action to reduce various risks and remaining alert to unfolding trends on the ground.
Regulators need to heed the trends in shadow banking as part of this, to ensure transparency. However the nature of this sector, the long chains and multiple counterparties with unclear financial obligations, will continue to make the job of the regulator very difficult.
Necmi K Avkiran is associate professor in Banking and Finance, The University of Queensland and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/necmi-k-avkiran-298084" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Shadow banking increases the risk of another global financial crisis

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Research from online lender loans.com.au has found many borrowers are paying vastly more than they need to.
Loans.com.au founder Kim Cannon said data from comparison site Canstar showed that a homebuyer who borrowed $450,000 could pay more than $114,000 in extra interest over the life of the loan if they made the wrong choice.
He said homebuyers who assumed that all lenders offered broadly similar value were making a big mistake.
“If buying a home is the biggest financial decision you will ever make, choosing a home loan is the second biggest,” he said
“The wrong decision on an average-sized loan can cost more than $100,000 dollars over the term of the home loan. These are life-changing sums.
"When shopping for a home loan, buyers should avoid distractions and keep their eye firmly on the comparison rate, which combines all costs into a single percentage rate.
“Just as buying property is all about location, location, location, when you take out a loan it is all about comparison rate, comparison rate, comparison rate.”
Loans.com.au recently cut the variable rate for home purchases on its Essentials product to a record-low 3.39 per cent (comparison rate 3.41 per cent).
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Aussie borrowers paying more than needed: Loans.com.au

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/63396/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The biggest Australian banks are fairing well in a year of increased pressure to reform from politicians, international events like the Britain’s exit from the European Union and more regulation from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA).
A number of interrelated factors have contributed to the relatively strong performance of the Australian banks. For instance, the banks have limited exposure to the types of securities which led to massive losses for their counterparts in other countries. The banks also heavily rely on domestic loans, particularly the low risk household sector, so better lending standards and a proactive approach to prudential supervision by APRA may have contributed.
The Basel III regulatory requirements, brought in after the 2008 financial crisis, emphasise holding an increased amount of subordinated debt, as a measure of market discipline. However all the big four banks are holding less and less subordinated borrowings. More specifically, it declined by more than 50% from 2007 to 2014, according to our calculations.
APRA limits banks’ holdings of higher risk securitised assets, these are loans packaged into securities, to a maximum of 25% of the banks' loan portfolio. These are high risk if not properly understood or defined, as happened with United States home loans, blamed for the start of the global financial crisis.
When Australian banks calculate bank capital requirements, they need to fully account for securitised assets. This is a rule from APRA that goes beyond international standards, to reflect the risk inherent in these products.
Inter-bank liquidity tightened significantly with all banks increasing their holdings of Exchange Settlements Accounts at the Reserve Bank, this a form of low risk liquidity. Australian banks have lower interbank deposits compared to their Europe and USA counterparts and are also heavily involved in long term wholesale funding and are required to hold more liquid assets including government debt to deal with liquidity. All of this makes Australian banks less risky in times of crisis because spillover effects from other banks are less likely.
<h2>There has been a significant increase in concentration in the Australian banking industry since the global financial crisis. For example with Westpac and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia taking over St. George Bank and Bank West, respectively.</h2>
Following mergers, the big four account for 88 percent of the Australian banking system assets. This reinforces the idea that the banks are “too big to fail”.
The banks have also moved to more fee generating activities, which increases risk, but to a lesser extent in Australian banks. Data shows between 1998 and 2014, on average, 1.2 percent greater interest income was generated relative to non-interest income for Australian banks, according to our analysis. However, there is also similar evidence for the top eight publicly-listed Canadian banks. They exhibit on an average, a 2.5 percent increase in net interest revenue relative to non-interest income over the same time period.
This reinforces that Australian and Canadian banks demonstrated extra ordinary resilience during the credit turmoil in the global financial crisis. The World Economic Forum in 2008 reported that Australia and Canada were among the top four safest banking systems in the world.
Large banks in Australia are active in international markets through direct ownership of foreign based banks and having offshore operations as a source of capital. Deregulation of banking in countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia and many developing countries has opened up new markets for foreign banks. Australian banks' largest international exposure is to New Zealand, where all big four banks retain sizeable operations.
Although the growing interdependence among international economies and financial markets is certain to continue, the impact of Brexit on Australian banks remains minimal. It remains to be seen in the long-run how Australian banks will weather the international banking/economic developments.
As a last measure of the bank health, we can measure the domestic systemic risk with a methodology based on one used by the official Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Based on July 2016 monthly data, the big four banks account for 80.38 percent of the systemic risk in the financial system and the riskiest, from highest to lowest, are the National Australia Bank, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac and ANZ.
Mamiza Haq is lecturer in Finance, The University of Queensland, and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mamiza-haq-143872" target="_blank">here</a>.
Necmi K Avkiran is associate professor in Banking and Finance, The University of Queensland and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/necmi-k-avkiran-298084" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Company results wrap: weighing up the risks behind the profits of Australia’s big four banks

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Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has conceded that he has "some discomfort' about rising Sydney house prices, but argued that these concerns need to be weighed up against the need to stimulate economic activity across the nation. 
He said the Reserve Bank remained confident there was little evidence of a widespread bubble in house prices.
Australia had a new "two speed" economy, with strong growth in states such as NSW, while resource-rich states, such as Western Australia and Queensland, had seen growth rates slump as the mining boom had ended.
Hie final interview with The Australian Financial Review, mentioned some mixed evidence as to the strength of the housing market. 
"Prices are probably rising smartly in some areas, but in other areas they're not, and in some cities in the country, they're falling," he said.
"So I think it's a mixed picture. It's not without risk, and it certainly gives me some discomfort, but then we're balancing that against the other obligations we have to pursue."
He said the RBA was tasked "to balance all these things and make a decision that neither completely ignores the financial stability and housing concerns, nor let them completely dictate the decision.
"That's the balance that we've tried to strike".
"Most of the domestic effects of cheap money comes through the household sector. Higher house prices than otherwise, more borrowing than otherwise, wealth effects, lower saving rate, etc."
But he added, "the thing that I've tried to grapple with is – that's where we get the effects, but do we actually want households to engage in a major levering-up from here?
"It's not that what they did before was disastrous – that clearly hasn't been. But from here, how much more do you want?"
"As the facts at the moment are, the credit growth of households is running about 6 percent. Fractionally less if you take account of a build-up in mortgage offsets and so on".
He added, "I don't think you can say this is a terrible risk. If it was 10 percent or 15 percent – that would be a different story".
He noted two speed housing price movements.
"It's probably not that surprising that parts of Sydney are leading the charge, because this economy is leading the country at the present time."
This, he added, is something "which, actually, we needed if we're to manage the transition after the mining boom".
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Housing markets not without risk as Sydney leads the charge: RBA's Glenn Stevens

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/64875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
On Tuesday, in its last board meeting with Glenn Stevens as Governor, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.
This was widely anticipated by markets. Glenn Steven’s statement basically said: growth is pretty low, but not horrible; business investment is way down, but other investment is up; commodity prices are up; but they fell a lot in the last two years; and so on.
Essentially, things are bad, but not too bad. In other words, the glass is half “fumpty”.
The two things he made a non-bland statement about were inflation and the exchange rate, saying:
“Inflation remains quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.”
and:
“Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 is helping the traded sector…though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.”
And therein lies the key to future rate moves in Australia. If inflation drops below 1 percent, or if the Aussie dollar gets above 78 or so cents, then the RBA will strongly consider another rate cut.
There was somewhat positive news from the ABS on the trade front for Australia. The seasonally-adjusted trade deficit was A$2.41 billion in July, compared to A$3.25 billion in June, and better than market expectations. This was driven largely by a big jump in gold exports, while imports did not rise, staying at A$28.8 billion. The latter figure was, in part, due to a 6 percent fall in imports on consumption goods. This helped the trade deficit, but one wonders whether it is a sign of reduced consumer confidence.
GDP growth in Australia came in at 0.5 percent for the June quarter, slightly below expectations of 0.6 percent. Still, that put year-on-year growth at 3.3 percent, leading Treasurer Scott Morrison to say:
“Today’s June Quarter National Accounts confirm that 2015-16 was Australia’s 25th consecutive year of economic growth and show our economy growing at the fastest rate in four years, but we must continue to push for stronger growth.”
As they say in baseball, “you can’t boo a home run,” but there was a little less to cheer about in the figures than it might seem at first glance. A big chunk of the growth came from pre election government spending, something that is unlikely to continue (note to ABS: don’t you want to seasonally adjust for this?) Our terms of trade also increased by 2.3%, aiding growth.
Nominal GDP growth remained below trend and below Treasury budget forecasts at an annual rate of 3.4%. This is the key figure for tax receipts. Remember that the budget – which still had a lot of flowing red ink involved in it – forecast a return to 5% nominal GDP growth over the coming years. That still looks a way off.
Speaking of growth, as the G20 met in China the IMF laid the groundwork for a lowering of its 3.1% global GDP growth target when it revises its figures in October. It warned the original goal would not be met: “without quick implementation of all announced measures and significant additional efforts to boost productivity, especially in advanced economies”. Translation: “Houston, we have a problem.” Again.
This week also saw the announced of the US Federal Reserve “beige book”. This odd-sounding object is a compendium of anecdotal evidence – collected by the constituent Federal Reserve Bank – published eight times per year.
The book provided further evidence, albeit anecdotal, that the US economy is slowly bouncing back:
“Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that national economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace on balance during the reporting period of July through late August. Most Districts reported a "modest” or “moderate” pace of overall growth."
What we know for sure is that global growth is low and below expectations. It looks like the US economy is bouncing back. And GDP numbers in Australia look good, but when one looks one level below, the picture isn’t so good.
Richard Holden is professor of economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow, UNSW Australia and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107" target="_blank">here</a>.
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