Underlying land value, scarcity factor and desire for more space through the pandemic has led to a substantially larger rise in house values relative to unit values over the past four years, property data analytics firm CoreLogic says.

At the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, the house premium, or the difference between median capital city house and unit values, was just 16.7%. Fast forward almost four years later, and that premium has jumped to 45.2% or $293,950.

CoreLogic&nbsp;research director, Tim Lawless,&nbsp;said while houses have historically attracted a price premium over units, and have shown a higher rate of capital gain, several factors have led to the accelerated value growth for detached dwellings over recent years.

“The house premium rose sharply through the pandemic upswing as more people sought out space and were more willing and able to live further afield in our cities," Lawless said.

"While we saw the premium contract through the early part of the rate hiking cycle as house values fell more than unit values, across the combined capitals the gap between house and unit values has since rebounded to a new record high as house values once again rise at a faster pace than units.”

<img alt="CL chart" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ef56cfb-232c-400f-93a3-8c575ca2bf77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-02-21%20at%206.40.50%20am.png?VersionId=XKlBupTQ_38ULQhrLobRRv1SqjnhH6Nr" />

Since the onset of the pandemic to January this year, capital city house values have increased by 33.9% or by $239,000. Unit values over the same period are up 11.2% or $65,235.&nbsp; A similar trend has played out over the past 12 months with house values up 11.0% ($93,552) while unit values are up a lesser 6.9% ($41,789).

Across the capital cities, Sydney has seen the largest expansion in the house premium since the pandemic, with the gap between house and unit values widening by almost 36 percentage points, catapulting it from sixth to first position on the premium leagues table. Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane have all seen their house premium grow between 15 and 16 percentage points over the same period, while Darwin has seen its house premium reduce by -12.2 percentage points.

“Over the past 12 months, we see a different picture. While Sydney tops the table again for largest 12-month change in premium followed by Canberra, several cities have seen the premium shrink back a little, including Brisbane and Adelaide. This could be reflective of homebuyers seeking out more affordable housing options, which has diverted more demand towards units,” Lawless said.

<img alt="CL chart" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="06b543c3-41b0-4bad-bdf1-dd9ca198753f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-02-21%20at%206.45.02%20am.png?VersionId=ZgGub1RXC70wHsml9Z.EoPFKXRZYhE8C" />

Since the onset of the pandemic to January this year, capital city house values have increased by 33.9% or by $239,000. Unit values over the same period are up 11.2% or $65,235.&nbsp; A similar trend has played out over the past 12 months with house values up 11.0% ($93,552) while unit values are up a lesser 6.9% ($41,789).

Across the capital cities, Sydney has seen the largest expansion in the house premium since the pandemic, with the gap between house and unit values widening by almost 36 percentage points, catapulting it from sixth to first position on the premium leagues table. Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane have all seen their house premium grow between 15 and 16 percentage points over the same period, while Darwin has seen its house premium reduce by -12.2 percentage points.

“Over the past 12 months, we see a different picture. While Sydney tops the table again for largest 12-month change in premium followed by Canberra, several cities have seen the premium shrink back a little, including Brisbane and Adelaide. This could be reflective of homebuyers seeking out more affordable housing options, which has diverted more demand towards units,” Mr Lawless said.

Across the combined capitals, five of the suburbs with the largest house premium are in Sydney, three are in Melbourne and two in Perth.

Lawless said many of the suburbs with the largest house premium are very affluent markets.

“In Sydney the largest premium for a house is at Bellevue Hill with a 525% premium for houses over units.&nbsp; In Melbourne it is Armadale with a 372% premium and in Perth it is Mosman Park with a 431% premium. Homebuyers attracted to these blue-chip suburbs who can’t afford a freestanding home may be attracted to the significantly more affordable price point to get into a high-end suburb,” Mr Lawless said.

<img alt="CL chart" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2890b787-a9a7-4306-91c0-91aa2e215fde" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-02-21%20at%206.43.51%20am.png?VersionId=m_2KHWrouRdYpdfXjc7V6U7flkLd0Mjy" />

“Conversely, the suburbs with the smallest differential in price between a house and unit may offer good buying opportunities for those able to stretch themselves to secure a piece of land without the hefty premium we’re seeing more broadly across many parts of our cities. With houses typically yielding a stronger capital gain outcome over time, these suburbs with a lower house premium could be strong investment opportunities.”

Lawless says house prices have moved out of reach for a growing portion of the population, especially those seeking a first home or lower income households.

"With housing affordability remaining a key challenge across Australia, the substantially lower price points across the medium to high density sector are likely to become increasingly in demand as buyers become more willing to sacrifice space for proximity to essential amenities."

"With housing affordability remaining a key challenge across Australia, the substantially lower price points across the medium to high density sector are likely to become increasingly in demand as buyers become more willing to sacrifice space for proximity to essential amenities."

Joel Robinson

High density sector to become more attractive as gap widens between house and unit prices: CoreLogic

Project marketers in Sydney are expecting a strong 2024 in the off-the-plan apartment development space.

2023 was one of mixed fortunes in Sydney, given the harbour capital boasts the highest median unit price of any capital by some margin. Impact from rising interest rates is understandably felt more when the price of the property is higher. Buyers at what had previously been entry-level, around the $600,000 mark in most areas within 10 kilometres of the city, were being told they might only now be able to spend $500,000, given the rapid rise in interest rates.&nbsp;

There was a lot of sitting on the fence, particularly from the downsizer market who often aren't in a great hurry to list their family home. They see downsizing as more of a necessity and tend to take longer in their purchasing decisions given their next buy will be more their 'forever home' than the last.

Despite some barriers to entry and hurdles to overcome in 2023,&nbsp;positive sentiment is creeping back into the market. Project marketers are saying that prospective buyers are starting to get wise that, off the back of inflation data and forecasts of the first RBA rate cut later this year, the market is about to boom again.

While those drivers tend to be more closely tied to the established market, a boom there will see the price difference between off-the-plan projects and established housing grow further, making it even more difficult than it already is to buy property in Sydney.

There's the belief that 2024 is going to be a good year for the off-the-plan market, driven by buoyed consumer confidence and the growing gap between supply and demand.

CBRE Managing Director Dave Milton said across the board they're seeing a lot of new enquiries from prospective buyers that they haven't spoken to previously.

"There's an uptick of people who have just started looking and will be looking to transact at some point in 2024," Milton says, adding that enquiry is coming from every demographic, even the expat market in some of their more luxury projects.

Milton says there's been strong buyer demand at Deicorp's <a href="/new-apartments/tallawong-village-rouse-hill-shop-30-12-conferta-avenue-tallawong">Tallawong Village</a> in <a href="/developments/norwest-nsw-2153">Norwest</a>, and <a href="/new-apartments/abbies-lane-8-mccarthy-lane-annandale">Abbie's Lane</a> in <a href="/developments/annandale-nsw-2038">Annandale</a>, of which Milton says is assisted by the starvation of stock in the inner-west.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106821 project_image_fid=169998]

CBRE will be launching Deicorp's new Melrose Park masterplan later this year, a project that Milton says will somewhat help alleviate the current supply crisis Sydney is facing.

<a href="/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> National Director Residential Blake Schulze&nbsp;says buyers have started to enquire, inspect displays, and most importantly transact, since returning from the summer holidays post Australia Day.

"Those that were actively reserving apartments in the lead up to Christmas have now gone through to unconditional sale, while those who were browsing at Christmas are starting to come down to the displays. Then there's a third cohort who are coming in fresh, assisted by the recent economic data suggesting there will be a rate cut later this year."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=139897 project_image_fid=212566]

Schulze says demand has been far-ranging.

"We're seeing demand across a broad selection of projects, which is always a good sign. It's not just certain markets or locations. A whole range of buyer types are now participating in the off-the-plan space."&nbsp;

<a href="/project-marketer/mcgrath-projects">McGrath Projects</a> Associate Director Adam Sparkes, who is marketing <a href="/buildings/grand-reve-castle-hill-8-18-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill">Grand Reve</a> in <a href="/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a> as well as <a href="/new-townhouses/yarrabee-152-166-narrow-neck-road-katoomba">Yarrabee</a> in <a href="/developments/katoomba-nsw-2780">Katoomba</a> and <a href="/new-apartments/dara-41-43-kildare-road-blacktown">DARA</a> in Blacktown, says all projects, which offer a very diverse range of stock, are getting results.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=94147 project_image_fid=197727]

"We had good enquiry over the holidays and that's now resulting in sales," Sparkes says of all of his projects.

All the three-bedroom plus study apartments at Grand Reve have been sold, the final one being picked up late last year, so now the attention has moved to the four-bedroom apartments.

Downsizers are showing the most interest at Grand Reve, which is on track for completion later this year. iCIRT-rated building DASCO, on behalf of developer Kassis Homes, has nearly topped out one of the two buildings. Sparkes says the later stages of construction tend to draw downsizers compared to the early stages.

"They're typically the later apartments to go when the building is approaching completion, as downsizers can see a firm and more accurate end date on the project. They can start to engage agents, work out the best time to sell, and move into the apartment after the sale of their family home," Sparkes says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=94147 project_image_fid=203070]

"We've had downsizers start to look at the four-bedroom apartments at Grand Reve, after selling out all of the three-bedroom plus study apartments late last year.

<a href="/project-marketer/ray-white">Ray White</a> Partner Marcello Bo, who is handling sales at <a href="/developers/stargate-property">Stargate</a>'s <a href="/new-apartments/the-centennial-collection-east-sydney-2-nelson-street-bondi-junction">Centennial Collection</a> in <a href="/developments/bondi-junction-nsw-2022">Bondi Junction</a>, says overall sentiment with buyers is stronger.

"In terms of availability, we're still finding it quite limited," Bo says, adding that it's been the higher price stock which has proven the most popular and has been the easiest to sell.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136076 project_image_fid=212620]

"With talk of interest rates dropping and the fact they're holding is bringing a lot more confidence. The owner-occupier market is healthy, and that confidence will only increase through 2024."

Ray White has just released a handful of two-bedroom apartments facing the park, as well as the last three-bedroom apartments with city and harbour views.

How the Sydney off the plan apartment market is faring heading into 2024

Brisbane's real estate picture, overall, shows stability, adaptability, and promising growth.

That's the view of&nbsp;Herron Todd White Director David Notley, who noted in the property valuation firm's 2023 Year in Review the Brisbane market experienced fluctuations over the year, but ultimately there are a lot of factors driving the market.

"When thinking about the things that surprised us this year, it’s hard to go past the ongoing strong demand for housing," Notley said.

"Yes, population growth and a rosy outlook leading to the 2032 Olympic Games all helps but given the interest rate rise cycle may not yet be quite over and that there might well still be some economic pain on the horizon, you might expect demand to slow a little. This simply hasn’t been the case and the recent uptick may well continue into next year as well."

Notley said while the&nbsp;beginning of 2023 delivered a little more stability following the RBA's 2022 interest rate rises, buyers still had some trepidation around when or if rates would rise again.

"Property owners weren’t keen to list their homes during a time of reduced buyer demand and uncertainty around the economy.&nbsp;However, the net effect was resilient property prices, remaining largely unaffected despite the temporary dip in activity.

"The pace picked up a little over mid-year. It would appear that some buyers who had delayed their plans were feeling a little more secure in the economic landscape.

"This strengthening in the market – both sales volumes and prices – has continued through to the end of the year. Some interesting statistics show how well we’ve performed in comparison to other capital cities, too. CoreLogic data to October reveals Brisbane’s rolling quarterly change in property values was greater than both Sydney and Melbourne as we tail out the year. But of course, markets are more nuanced than this with various price points, property types and locations all seeing different outcomes in 2023."

<img alt="HTW" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8ae6c2f2-4c40-4184-9713-f67cbd3c8c0a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-31%20at%207.44.34%20pm_1.png?VersionId=18o1yE2kXRv5xBo1JvvtrQ1KkxLJeWZq" />

&nbsp;

Notley said units and townhouses gained popularity among first-time buyers, offering an affordable entry into the property market.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

"Big money was also being regularly spent on the apartment market," Notley said.

"Downsizers/empty nesters who have done well riding Brisbane’s property wave over the past few decades were able to enjoy some very impressive living.

"New apartment sales – both completed and off-the-plan – at $3 million-plus price points were a regular occurrence during 2023."

Brisbane's population surge has intensified pressures on the tight rental market, with meagre vacancy rates of approximately 0.9%.

"That flags an extreme imbalance with very tight supply butting up against huge demand. As a direct result, there has been upward pressure on rents. This seems to have prompted some investors to re-enter this sector of the market over recent months, which is a good thing."

To address affordability concerns for first-time homebuyers, the state government recently announced a doubling of the first homeowner’s grant to $30,000, albeit limited to new builds.

"The bump will be enormously helpful to first-time buyers but might also drive up the price of property in certain locations. Activity in fringe estates or new stages in the growth corridors – such as Ripley out to the west of Brisbane – might pick up on the back of the announcement."

&nbsp;

Staff Writer

"New apartment sales at $3 million-plus were a regular occurrence during 2023": Herron Todd White's Brisbane year in review

Sydney's residential property market has showcased remarkable resilience throughout 2023, defying earlier predictions of a prolonged downturn.

Property valuation firm Herron Todd White initially expected the year to begin with continued interest rate rises and face prolonged price declines.&nbsp;

However, a closer look at the findings in their 2023 A Year in Review Report reveals unexpected trends and factors influencing the city's real estate landscape.

Herron Todd White Director Shaun Thomas said in the report that despite four interest rate hikes by June, the Sydney property market experienced a swift rebound, bottoming out in the first quarter and enjoying consistent growth throughout the year.&nbsp;

"Earlier in the year we predicted the bottom of the market was nearby but what took us by surprise was the quick rebound. Whilst value levels might not be back to where they were in 2022 the recovery is well and truly on," Thomas said.

The rebound was particularly surprising considering earlier concerns about a predicted "mortgage cliff" and a wave of forced sales that failed to materialise.

Many suburbs in the north-west led the charge to recovery, with some values returning to 2022 levels.&nbsp;

"The lack of stock had more influence over the market’s performance than the multiple back-to-back interest rate rises," Thomas noted.

The unit market in Sydney's Lower North Shore witnessed modest growth, partly driven by first-time homebuyers capitalising on government stamp duty benefits.

"Many of these buyers, having faced significant rental increases over the past 12 to 18 months, have opted to transition to homeownership," Thomas added.

<img alt="HTW" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee11bb3d-ed3d-4e5f-bd98-8e9f0adc491a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-31%20at%207.44.34%20pm_0.png?VersionId=J1Upmz2qnBz8B4C_Kt9OYopvQJMthHYy" />

Investment-grade properties and residential apartments closer to the CBD recorded increases in value levels, with the market regaining most of the capital value lost in late 2022.

"A feeling of optimism took over the market circa March 2023, with many buyers taking the opinion that the RBA was at the height of the cash rate increases attributable to the slowing inflation data being reported at the time.

"The renewed confidence amongst some buyers as well as the low levels of properties on the market for sale have been the major catalysts for strengthened sale prices throughout 2023."

The higher median property values of Sydney's inner city, sensitive to interest rate movements, experienced some softening but ultimately showed resilience. The market reacted to interest rate fluctuations, varying impacts on different property types.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=249157]

"With the inner city Sydney market surprisingly resilient, increases continued throughout quarter two and into quarter three, however, the momentum was dampened by further interest rate rises in May and June with CoreLogic reporting price growth slowing to 0.9%.

"The most recent rate rise appears to have been the final blow of 2023, with many agents reporting that they are in the process of finalising their last deals for the year and winding down for the holiday period," Thomas added.

The eastern suburbs showcased continuous property value increases attributed to low market supply, immigration, and first-home buyer schemes. The duplex market and large homes remained strong, with sales often exceeding expectations.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136076 project_image_fid=212615]

Thomas added that the unit markets have remained active, particularly lower-density apartment complexes, primarily driven by investors and first-home buyers who want to take advantage of first-home buyer incentives.

"High-density apartment developers have gone under further scrutiny due to well-documented building defect issues and major developers being liquidated (such as Ralan). This has provided more of a negative stigma to these markets.&nbsp;

"We do note that the work being done by the New South Wales Building Commissioner is helping to return some confidence to buyers in this market.

"With immigration expected to remain high and new dwelling approvals at lows, there's likely to be a continued housing supply shortfall, putting upward pressure on prices and rents."

Sydney's property market year in review: Herron Todd White

The performance residential property market in Melbourne varied from market to market, property valuation firm Herron Todd White concluded in their Year in Review.

One of the most nuanced performances was the Melbourne CBD, which had different outcomes in the price and rental markets.

"Melbourne’s CBD is made up of predominantly units or apartments, making their sale prices a good gauge of the property market in the inner city," Herron Todd White's Director Perron King said.

"Although the prices may have decreased, rents have increased, and vacancy rates have once again fallen. This performance shows that the city is having a bounce back after a tough couple of years of the COVID-19 pandemic."

Rental demand and an expected influx of immigrants might lead to higher-density living trends, King noted.

"With times getting tougher for Australians and an expected 400,000 immigrants coming to Australia between 2023 and 2024, there could potentially be a shift in the way people live, and higher-density living could continue to show strong growth, especially considering the rental demand at the moment," King added.

<img alt="Units" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="84ce74f2-f6d7-4daa-8c8e-82a9327c6ddc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-31%20at%207.44.34%20pm.png?VersionId=9ZApCePI9kDfNX95ftXQQvERc6t5kJ19" />

King said despite challenges in the building industry, residential developments persisted, albeit with increased costs.

"The year highlighted the impact of global and local factors on Melbourne's property landscape, with changing demographics suggesting a potential shift towards higher-density living."

King said that while inner suburbs demonstrated robust performance, outer northern suburbs presented new opportunities for homebuyers and investors, adding that despite interest rate increases, stability and slight growth were observed in these areas.

&nbsp;

"Inner northern neighbourhoods such as Brunswick, Thornbury and Northcote demonstrated robust performance, albeit with limited new housing stock. Occasionally, medium-sized developers acquire larger lots to construct six to eight units or townhouses in these areas, and their prime location commands a premium."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4802 project_image_fid=217119]

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Generally speaking, HTW found the most affordable end of the market took the biggest hit, given the increased limitations on lending which stemmed from the RBA's interest rate hikes.

On the flip side, at top end of the market, buyers appear in many cases unfazed by interest rates, with a number of record breaking sales throughout the year.

"This is partly a result of cash purchases and the return of internationally based buyers."

Melbourne's property market year in review: Herron Todd White

Brisbane homes have seen extraordinary capital growth in the past few years, rising over 50 per cent since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, data released by&nbsp;property data analytics firm CoreLogic found.

The city’s appeal amid an increase in remote work helped fuel strong population growth, increasing housing demand, driving down supply and making it a seller’s market.&nbsp;

At the end of last year, Brisbane reached a new milestone. The city now has the third-highest median dwelling value among the capitals, behind Sydney and Canberra. In December, the Greater Brisbane median dwelling value was $787,000, surpassing Melbourne’s median value for the first time since July 2009 by around $7,000.

CoreLogic has looked at the fundamentals which has led Brisbane's median dwelling value to overtake Melbourne's.

<img alt="CoreLogic" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1cdb2584-bca2-48aa-8541-d652f345ab12" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-11%20at%202.42.13%20pm.png?VersionId=kl20MrZO4WFlfi5hE2z3DZ4YacEeput7" />

<h2>Why has Brisbane surpassed Melbourne in the median dwelling value ranks?&nbsp;</h2>

Composition of housing stock. Despite recording a higher median dwelling value, Brisbane’s median house and unit values are still -$72,000 and -$49,000 below Melbourne’s medians respectively.

<img alt="CoreLogic" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4a4798a0-95a7-4775-a431-5b3ea47ec534" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-11%20at%202.42.20%20pm.png?VersionId=q3I.bk7QDDS8dpORHArVar8F9kDD5pqo" />

The reason for this is that Melbourne has a higher share of units as a portion of the dwelling market. CoreLogic estimates that units comprise 33.8% of Melbourne dwellings, compared to 25.6% of homes across Brisbane (Figure 2b). Because units are generally lower value than detached houses, a higher portion of units brings down the median dwelling across all houses and units.&nbsp;

In the near term, this compositional difference might rebalance a little. The latest building activity data from the ABS showed that as of June last year, there were 1.4 units under construction for every house in Victoria, compared to 1.6 units for every house across Queensland. This implies there could be a slightly higher concentration of unit stock to come across Brisbane.&nbsp;

<img alt="CoreLogic" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c3a44fea-34ad-4ca1-beaf-c302c336aa06" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-11%20at%202.42.23%20pm.png?VersionId=8j79Bkw4j8VGjFVnCZ.wUd0KHMAIgqgf" />

&nbsp;

Brisbane booms against mild Melbourne upswing. Since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, Brisbane dwelling values rose 50.2% through to the end of last year. Over the same period Melbourne values rose just 11.0% (Figure 3), which was the weakest increase of any capital city market.&nbsp;

This disparity in growth has seen Brisbane’s median dwelling value rise from -$187,000 below Melbourne’s median in March 2020, to $7,000 higher in December last year.&nbsp;

The reason for such varied capital growth outcomes may be partly due to lifestyle factors, where the appeal of South East Queensland rose through the pandemic. The normalisation of remote work for many professionals made interstate migration to Queensland more feasible, while Melbourne’s extended lockdowns from March 2020 through to October 2021 may have prompted people to leave the city.&nbsp;

<img alt="Figure 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8da01078-604a-43fe-a5d7-875de2b0005e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-11%20at%202.45.01%20pm.png?VersionId=NszwqCcZPBtFGpwB_74LqecV1pcGKZHQ" />

This is reflected in ABS migration data, which shows net interstate migration to Queensland hit a record high of 51,500 in the year to March 2022. In the same period, net interstate migration to Victoria was -20,000. Net internal migration to Victoria bottomed out at a loss of -35,600 people in the year to June 2021, and was still negative as of June last year. Value falls across Melbourne were also exacerbated by the loss of overseas migration through COVID, but net overseas migration turned positive in 2022. These trends can be seen in Figure 4, which shows rolling annual interstate and overseas migration by state.&nbsp;

While the most recent migration data is only available at a state-wide level, regional population data from the ABS showed that over the year to June 2022, Brisbane’s population grew by 2.3%, more than double the rate across Melbourne (1.1%). Overall, Melbourne still had a higher estimated resident population at 5,031,000, compared to 2,628,000 across Brisbane.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

<img alt="Corelogic" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="63d2d1f6-0e4c-486c-ac26-10c3584c6c50" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202024-01-11%20at%202.45.27%20pm.png?VersionId=x8SEYFEH.O1gSSqArW._Amin2fkpwJ3L" />

<h3>Outlook for market rankings</h3>

Brisbane was not the only city to ‘shift ranks’ in December, with the median dwelling value in Perth inching above the median Hobart dwelling value in the month. Adelaide also surpassed the Hobart median earlier in 2023, making Hobart the second-lowest median across the capitals.

However, these new rankings may be tested in the months ahead. Brisbane remains a seller’s market, but the pace of monthly growth in values has eased slightly, from 1.5% in October 2023 to 1.0% in December. As home values in the city continue to rise, there is less claim to Brisbane being relatively affordable, and some prospective interstate movers may decide to remain in their city. Recent weeks have also demonstrated there is some added risk to pockets of the Brisbane property market from extreme weather and flooding, which could impact demand in the near term.

Overall, the data reinforces the substantial impact that the pandemic has had on housing preferences, and shifting market dynamics.&nbsp;

Brisbane was not the only city to ‘shift ranks’ in December, with the median dwelling value in Perth inching above the median Hobart dwelling value in the month

Brisbane's median dwelling price overtakes Melbourne after staggering price growth: CoreLogic

Expert commentary from CoreLogic

Australian dwelling values have regained the losses from the recent downturn and surpassed their previous peak to reach a new record high, CoreLogic's national daily Home Value Index shows.

After reaching a peak in April 2022, national home values fell -7.5%, finding a floor on 29 January 2023.&nbsp; Since bottoming out, the national HVI has risen by 8.1%, taking the market to a new record high on Wednesday 22 November 2023.

CoreLogic’s Executive Research Director, Tim Lawless, said it took around nine months for the National HVI to move from record highs to the recent trough, then roughly 10 months to recover from the short but sharp downturn.

"The 'V' shaped recovery may seem counter intuitive, given high interest rates, deeply pessimistic levels of consumer sentiment and high cost of living pressures, however the recovery can be explained by an imbalance between supply and demand," Mr Lawless said.

<img alt="CoreLogic" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a3e91765-dc93-4738-b4df-9f36a6551d6e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202023-11-22%20at%2012.43.47%20pm.png?VersionId=2eWv.dKdHlT_fwuodMNTtZWFcgITa0LD" />

"From a supply perspective, advertised stock levels have held remarkably low through 2023.&nbsp; Although inventory levels are now rebalancing as vendor activity picks up, listings remain 16.6% below the previous five-year average nationally.&nbsp; At the same time, demonstrated demand, based on the volume of homes sales, is trending roughly in line with the five-year average."

While the national index has reached a new record high, the headline figures hide a growing level of diversity in housing market conditions.&nbsp; Across the capital cities, Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane are all at record highs, with their regional counterparts Regional WA, Regional SA and Regional Queensland also at new peaks.

<img alt="CoreLogic" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e55913d9-55cf-4cd8-abea-4e15d93d5c43" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202023-11-22%20at%2012.46.25%20pm.png?VersionId=Mlq9pAMPAzwaaqdOUI2xGBiqzCGae8ni" />

At the other end of the scale is Hobart, where values remain -11.8% below their peak and Regional Victoria, where dwelling values are -7.0% below their record highs.

As housing values continue to trend higher across most regions, Mr Lawless said we are likely to see more areas return to record high housing values.&nbsp;

"While this is great news for home owners, for those looking to buy, affordability pressures are becoming more pressing amid rising values, high interest rates and worsening serviceability challenges.

"The good news for prospective buyers is that the pace of growth is clearly easing in some markets as advertised stock levels rise and purchasing demand remains fragile."

Tim Lawless said it took around nine months for the National HVI to move from record highs to the recent trough, then roughly 10 months to recover from the short but sharp downturn.

CoreLogic's Home Value Index reaches record highs

South East Queensland’s housing market is set to buckle under the pressure of a 52 per cent increase in annual dwellings needed to accommodate an estimated population boom of two million new residents by 2046.

That's the stark reality facing the growing region of Queensland, according to the latest RPM SEQ Market Update.

The report, which zeroes in on the South East Queensland Regional Plan’s estimates that 863,600 new dwellings are needed by 2046 – or approximately 34,500 homes a year – to meet the estimated population growth, concludes that the recently released Draft SEQ Regional Plan by the state government does not provide the framework to meet this target.

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The RPM report notes that South East Queensland historically averages around 22,778 residential lot registrations per year and, of that number, units made up 40 per cent, adding that if the region is to meet the housing demand target, a substantial 52 per cent increase in the production of new dwellings is needed.

While the SEQ Regional Plan has intensified its focus on building up rather than out, RPM’s Queensland Managing Director Clinton Trezise says high-density infill projects within the urban footprint are struggling to stack up as an affordable option due to a blowout in construction costs.

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“Historically, Queensland has not been able to achieve the level of construction needed to meet the future demand for housing,” Trezise said,

“The closest we have ever come is 33,821 new dwellings built in the 2017 financial year when Brisbane was experiencing an apartment boom. With the cost pressures on high-rise apartments not going away any time soon, going up rather than out is not going to provide the needed supply and certainly not affordable supply of new dwellings.”

“This massive shortage of supply has fed into significantly higher prices for vacant land over the past financial year, with the median settled land price across the region surging 12 per cent to $340,000,” said Mr Trezise.

Logan emerged as the dominant land provider in the market, accounting for one-third of all settled sales last financial year with the 1,323 sales recorded surpassing all other local government areas.&nbsp;

Ipswich accounted for 15 per cent of sales, followed by Brisbane (12 per cent), Sunshine Coast and Moreton Bay (at 11 per cent each).&nbsp;

The Gold Coast, with limited land supply, represented only 3 per cent of the total land sales for the year.

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The RPM report has found land prices have grown rapidly in regional areas due to supply constraints, defying the market headwinds from higher interest rates.

Trezise said supply issues were proving to be counter-productive in enhancing affordability in regional areas of South East Queensland.

“The government and councils need to facilitate more land for greenfield developments if the affordability issue is to be addressed,” he said.

“Unfortunately, this is at odds with the latest SEQ Regional Plan which has increased the emphasis on high-density infill developments throughout the region.”

The Draft 2023 SEQ Regional Plan has shifted its dwelling growth ratio from 60/40 in 2017 (60 per cent in infill areas and 40 per cent in greenfield areas) to 70/30 in 2023.&nbsp;

“While there is merit in this strategy to leverage off existing urban infrastructure, especially in Brisbane with the level of public infrastructure being provided for the Olympic Games, this should not be a one-size-fits-all approach,” said Mr Trezise.

The 70/30 ratio mirrors the urban development policies of Sydney and Melbourne, but according to the RPM Report this approach will fail to address the short-term and medium-term supply issues faced by the South East Queensland region.

“Land is not getting developed fast enough by the current SEQ Regional Plan with complex approval processes, land constraints and lack of needed infrastructure meaning seemingly developable land cannot be unlocked to facilitate supply or simply supply cannot be developed fast enough,” said Mr Trezise.

“The reality is that adequate affordable supply is not going to come from apartments because of the cost constraints to build and affordability to buy are impacting the sector.

“While the ‘build up rather than out’ approach aims to maximise existing infrastructure for new housing, historically, the heavy lifting for new housing supply in South East Queensland traditionally has been done by greenfield land developments.

“South East Queensland currently needs to increase the output of dwellings by 52 per cent to meet demand. The only way to meet this demand quickly, and to address affordability, is to release more land.”&nbsp;

Trezise said more greenfield developments with smaller lot sizes can deliver a diversity of product, such as townhouse and terrace homes on smaller land sizes in the low to mid-$500,000 range.

“The clear message from the data in this report is that affordable housing is becoming less affordable because of restrictions on supply,” he said.

“The current lack of infrastructure in place to keep up with demand means we currently lack the horsepower required to increase land production to the extent that is needed. The state government needs to step in and open up more land for housing while looking at the infrastructure requirements to ensure it can be developed.”

Dwelling supply needs to double to accommodate two million people by 2046

A shortfall in housing in South East Queensland good news for off the plan buyers

The City of Melbourne is one of the top five most affordable local government areas to buy property in with significant investment upside.

That's the view of researcher and commentator Terry Ryder, founder of Hotspotting.com.au, a company which helps identify emerging property markets.

He listed the City of Melbourne in his top five 'City Cheapies with Prospects' alongside the City of Salisbury in Adelaide, the City of Armadale and the City of Canning&nbsp;in Perth,&nbsp;Southern Moreton Bay Islands in South East Queensland.

He says the five regions are likely to offer the best strategic property buying and investing potential over the next six months. Melbourne's population boom, overtaking Sydney as Australia's largest city for the first time in more than a century after borders were redrawn, was a major factor in Ryder's view.

“Despite facing challenges during the pandemic, Melbourne has shown resilience and stability in its property market," Ryder says.

“However, the rising interest rates and shifting lifestyle demands have caused investors and homeowners to look at options such as units and townhouses instead of standalone houses.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3260 project_image_fid=212294]

The City of Melbourne, with its high-density dwellings making up 86 per cent of homes, has become an attractive destination for both living and working, he said.

“Its strong economy, with major businesses, universities, hospitals, and government services, has been further bolstered by ongoing infrastructure projects such as the North East Rail Link and the proposed Suburban Rail Loop,” Ryder said.

“These developments are expected to bring in significant investments and create thousands of jobs, ensuring continued growth and stability in Melbourne's property market.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1270 project_image_fid=217067]

Melbourne saw the fastest growth in dwelling values of all Australian capital cities at the start of the pandemic, but then saw the steepest decline when repeated lock downs curtailed market activity in 2020- 21.

Since 2021 however, Melbourne has been one of the more resilient of the capital cities nationally, and has performed relatively steadily against a backdrop of rising interest rates and reduced consumer confidence.

According to the latest Home Value Index from CoreLogic, released in August 2023, median dwelling values in Melbourne behaved relatively moderately compared to other Australian capital cities such as Sydney and Brisbane. Dwelling prices rose less rapidly in Melbourne between the onset of Covid to the cyclical price peak. However the subsequent decline in dwelling values in 2022-2023 was also much more moderate.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5345 project_image_fid=227074]

Ryder says there is an emerging trend of more buyers opting to buy units and townhouses, for affordability and lifestyle reasons, including young buyers and downsizers.

"It’s creating rising demand in inner-city locations in the biggest cities.

"The City of Melbourne is benefiting from this trend, with only 1.8% of the LGA’s population living in detached housing, according to the last census. 12.2% live in medium density and 85.3% living in high density accommodation."

Hotspotting's&nbsp;Spring 2023 edition of The Price Predictor Index stated the City of Melbourne is the strongest market in the Greater Melbourne area.

"Of the 10 City of Melbourne suburbs in the analysis, seven are rising markets, one is a recovering market and one is a consistency market (and one is a plateau market)," the report noted.

According to Hotspotting’s Top 10 Apartment Markets report, published in August 2023, apartments were outperforming standalone houses in a number of ways – including faster growth in rents, superior price growth rates for much of the past 12 months and a growing share of new dwelling approvals.

In the latest State of the States report, from July 2023, Victoria leads the country for construction work done. According to the data, in Victoria, construction work done is 19.3 per cent above its decade average.

<h2>City of Melbourne, Metro Melbourne, Highlights</h2>

 
• Strong population growth 
• Good rental yields 
• Designated Metropolitan Activity Centres 
• Important national cluster of universities and hospitals 
• $35 billion suburban rail loop 
• $16 billion North East Link 
• $14 billion biomedical precinct 
• $6.7 billion Docklands development 
• $2.8 billion Melbourne Square project 
• $1.7 billion Southbank Arts precinct

“Despite facing challenges during the pandemic, Melbourne has shown resilience and stability in its property market," Ryder says

Why Metro Melbourne presents as a "Cheapie With Prospects": Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

A sharp slowdown in the pace of construction cost growth may be an early sign that pressures are stabilising within the building sector.

CoreLogic’s Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI), which tracks the cost to build a typical new dwelling, returned a quarterly growth rate of 0.5 per cent for the September quarter, the smallest lift since the three months to June 2019 and half the pre-COVID decade average of one per cent per quarter.

This took the annual growth in the index to 4.0 per cent, below the recent quarterly peak of 4.7% this time last year.

CoreLogic Head of Australian Research Eliza Owen said while construction costs are still very elevated, the ongoing level of increase has normalised.

“This is the fourth consecutive slowdown in the quarterly pace of growth for residential construction costs,” Owen said.

“The slowdown in new dwelling approvals also points to mixed news for the construction industry next year. On the one hand, this will free up capacity for material and labour resources, but it will also mean greater competition for new jobs.”

The recent slowdown in the growth rate of construction costs is broadly in line with the new dwellings cost sub-component of the ABS CPI figures.

The ABS CPI sub-index saw a peak in the March 2022 quarter at 5.7 per cent, and has since slowed to just one per cent through the June quarter of 2023.

"The cost of new owner occupier dwelling purchases comprises the largest weighting in the CPI ‘basket’, so the continual easing in the CCCI may also be a forward indicator of inflationary pressures easing within the building sector,” Owen added.

Apartment developers have seen costs soar over the last few years since the pandemic, making their projects unfeasible. While costs are still considerably higher than they were two years ago, the big difference is they're not going up every month like they were in 2021 and 2022.

CoreLogic Construction Cost Estimation Manager John Bennett said cost pressures in construction are shifting from an issue of materials, to labour.

“While material costs appear to have stabilised in general, labour costs have had a number of new pressures applied,” Bennett said.

“Award rates have increased more than five per cent across the construction industry, coming in higher than previous years."

&nbsp;

<h1>Key findings by state – Q3 2023 CCCI Report</h1>

- The CCCI for New South Wales rose 0.6% over the three months to September 2023, steady on the previous quarter but down from a recent high of 4.0% Q3 last year. The annual increase also sank to 3.9% from 7.3% in the three months to June 2023.

- Victoria’s CCCI recorded a 0.3% increase in construction costs over the September quarter, down from 0.7% in the three months to June and the largest deceleration in construction costs over the quarter. Annually costs increased 3.7%, from a peak of 13.0% in the calendar year of 2022.

- Queensland saw construction costs rise by 0.8% over the quarter, the highest quarterly increase 
at a state level and 10 basis points up on Q2 2023. On an annual basis, costs increased 4.8%.

- In Western Australia, construction costs rose 0.2% over the quarter, the lowest quarterly growth rate of all states. The quarterly pace of change is down from a recent high of 4.3% in the September quarter of 2021, and is running below the pre-COVID decade average rate of 1.0%.

- South Australia's increase in construction costs was 0.6% for the quarter, the smallest increase in the CCCI since the Q3 2020, when the effects of material constraints and a surge in demand from HomeBuilder were yet to be fully felt in the residential construction space. The annual increase plummeted to 4.1% from a recent high of 10.5% in the 2022 calendar year.

CoreLogic Head of Australian Research Eliza Owen said while construction costs are still very elevated, the ongoing level of increase has normalised

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