Best opportunities for property investors will be in regional areas with mining influence in 2013: Terry Ryder

The median house price in the remote Queensland regional town of Cloncurry rose 35% in the past 12 months. In the same period, the median house price in the upmarket Sydney suburbs of Double Bay fell 35%.

That is the black and white of property markets around Australia. In between, across the thousands of suburbs and towns in this country, have been many different shades of grey.

Some markets have boomed, some have grown moderately, some have stagnated, some have gone a little backwards and some have gone into reverse rapidly.

Those at the positive end of the growth scale are overwhelmingly in regional areas with some influence from the resources sector. Those at the negative end are mostly upmarket suburbs in capital cities.

The simple message in this? There’s no such animal as “the Australian property market”.

Next time you hear an analyst discussing what will happen in the Australian property market next year, you can assume you’re listening to a charlatan. There are surprisingly large numbers of them getting airplay.

People keep asking me what will happen next year in the property market, and I keep asking them which market they’re referring to. There are dozens of different answers I could give, depending on location and market segment.

The key to success in property investment in 2013 is understanding that there is not a single market out there. There are thousands of them. Next year, more than ever, the market will be highly segmented. There will be boom markets and there will be disasters, and numerous variations in between. Prosperity depends on distinguishing one from the other.

Given the record numbers of consumers who registered for the webinar I conducted last week with Property Observer, there’s a lot of interest in what might happen in real estate next year.

We’ve seen some recovery in capital city prices, we’ve seen an improvement in consumer sentiment and we’ve had a sixth interest rate cut. What are the prospects for next year?

Overall, many markets will be stronger in 2013 than this year. There is a gathering of indicators pointing in the right direction, including the number of new housing loans, the improvement in affordability, the rise in consumer confidence and the impact of interest rate reductions.

But there will not be a uniform movement in markets. Among the eight state and territory capitals, for example, I see strong upward trends for Perth and Darwin, solid increases for Sydney and Brisbane, moderate improvement in Adelaide, stagnation in Canberra and further decline in Melbourne and Hobart.

There will, of course, be variations within each of those cities, with some locations doing better than others, influenced by local factors such as new infrastructure and improved affordability.

Beyond Darwin and Perth, which are the standout contenders among the major cities, I see the best opportunities being found in the regions.

That was undoubtedly the case in 2012, and it will still be so in 2013.

Keep watching this space, as in coming weeks I will discuss some of the regional markets I see thriving in the 2013 economic environment.

Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au and can be followed on Twitter.