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GUEST OBSERVATION
It won’t help enough, but it will get some people their keys. 
The new <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2019/05/12/helping-australians-buy-their-first-home" target="_blank">First Home Loan Deposit Scheme</a> announced the Coalition, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-quick-on-the-draw-labor-matches-morrisons-first-home-owners-scheme-116969" target="_blank">instantly backed by Labor</a>, is likely to be popular among those on the cusp of buying their first home.
It’ll be open to singles earning up to A$125,000 and couples earning up to A$200,000 who have saved at least 5% of the value of the home. The government-owned National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation will partner with private lenders to put up as much as another 15% of the value of the home to take the deposit to 20%.
However, the scheme is capped at <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/no-free-money-morrison-dismisses-concerns-over-first-home-buyer-scheme-20190513-p51moj" target="_blank">10,000 home buyers per year</a>, roughly one tenth of the number of Australians who bought first homes in 2018.
It’ll help them - the latest survey shows that <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6553.0" target="_blank">more than half of first homebuyers</a> needed financial assistance outside of their own savings to get their deposit. The <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14036090120617" target="_blank">benefits of home ownership</a> have been widely documented. But will it do enough?
Source of deposits
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274299/original/file-20190514-60557-572nt0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6553.0" target="_blank">Authors' own calculations from ABS Survey of Income and Housing 2013-14</a>
An often-expressed concern is that such a scheme will <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/13/first-homebuyers-scheme-who-gets-it-and-will-it-work-explainer" target="_blank">bid up house prices</a>. However, it is means-tested, making it much less vunerable to this criticism than the non-means-tested <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Former_Committees/hsaf/report/c09" target="_blank">First Home Owners’ Grant</a>.
And is also capped at 10,000 loans per year, giving it little scope to price pressure.
However, it may not be means-tested enough.
Consider the population subgroup that broadly comprises aspiring homebuyers who qualify for the scheme: renters aged 25-34 years who meet the scheme’s income criteria and whose financial wealth is between 5% and 20% of the lowest-priced quarter of houses for sale in the borad area in which they live.
In the most-recent <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6503.0" target="_blank">2015 ABS Survey of Income and Housing</a> there were 127,000 such potential eligible first home buyers, more than 12 times the 10,000 cap.
The cap is a practical necessity of course, needed to limit impacts on prices and prevent a cost blowout. But the weakness of the scheme is that the cap will be filled on a “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/no-free-money-morrison-dismisses-concerns-over-first-home-buyer-scheme-20190513-p51moj" target="_blank">first come, first serve</a>” basis, without distinguishing between those who actually need help and those who are likely to meet the deposit requirement anyway.
The graph shows that some 40% of potential first home buyers have managed to save a deposit amounting to not much more than 5% of the home value. Only 7% have a 20% deposit or something near it.
Potential users of the scheme, by amount of deposit saved
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274312/original/file-20190514-60567-1rjotju.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Deposit saved by renters aged 25-34 who meet the scheme’s eligibility criteria, per cent of lower quartile property prices in area of residence, 2015-16. <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6503.0" target="_blank">Authors' own calculations from the ABS Survey of Income and Housing 2015-16</a>
The Coalition could get more bang for its buck within the cap by targeting those in greater need of assistance; for example by prioritising those who cannot access the so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-everyone-wins-from-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-73842" target="_blank">Bank of Mum and Dad</a>. Not everyone has access to wealthy parents.
The Great Australian Dream of owning a home has been fading fast, and not just for young people. Naturally, the scheme’s details of the scheme require scrutiny. But overall, it provides a welcome acknowledgement (by both major parties) that the affordability crisis facing young people has not waned despite recent house price declines.
The scheme will restore the opportunity – at least to some – to accumulate wealth in property and enjoy the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14036090120617">security and other benefits</a> that home ownership brings.
But seriously addressing housing affordability will ultimately require a bigger intervention.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117073/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-ong-viforj-113482" target="_blank">Rachel Ong ViforJ</a>, Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Finance and Property, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873" target="_blank">Curtin University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/small-but-well-formed-the-new-home-deposit-scheme-will-help-and-its-unlikely-to-push-up-prices-117073" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The new home deposit scheme will help, and it’s unlikely to push up prices

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A lack of approved apartment developments is resulting in interest in the masterplan approved Nine Network site in Willoughby. 
The Nine Network site, which is to be occupied by the media giant until late 2020, is being sold by Sydney-based property group and funds management company Lotus Group and Hong Kong-based global property group Euro Properties.
Market research compiled by Charter Keck Cramer cites a critical shortage of supply in approved apartment development sites in Sydney.
The report showed the Greater Sydney apartment market fell by over 50% from 33,000 new released apartments in 2017 to just 16,000 in 2018; the lowest number of new releases since 2012. 2019 is expected to be lower again.  
A record 29,200 apartment completions were recorded in 2018 with a further 27,300 forecast to occur in 2019.
The report forecasts a drop to 23,300 completions in 2020 and a dramatic 9,200 completions in 2021.  
In the Lower North Shore, since 2009 there have been approximately 9,000 contemporary apartments completed.
Since 2009, the suburb of Willoughby has seen limited apartment completions with only 226 new apartments constructed across the suburb.
In the short term, there is likely to be limited increases in apartment supply across Willoughby with only one project containing 20 apartments under construction and no projects presently being marketed. 
Colliers International agent Guillaume Volz said it has seen strong interest in the 2.9 hectare Nine Network site on Artarmon Road in Sydney’s lower north shore.
Designed by architects CHROFI, the masterplan approved site, where Channel Nine remains the tenant until late 2020, currently includes approval for 460 apartments across ten buildings ranging in height from four to nine storeys. 
The masterplan also includes a series of public piazzas and publicly accessible open green space creating a village-style community.  
Volz said the lack of supply in the area is driving interest from those looking to add to their development pipelines in two to three years.
“We’ve been surprised by some of the unusual combinations of foreign equity and boutique local developers,” he said. 
“Australia is benefiting as a consequence of global economic uncertainty.
“Foreign capital, largely Asian including Singaporean, Hong Kong-based/PRC and Japan, is looking for a safe haven in quality trophy projects with some parts of the world currently perceived as less stable and with Australia offering strong relations, a weakening dollar and the outlook on interest rates dropping.”
The Nine site, marketed by Colliers International as Willoughby Parkside, closes expressions of interest May 30.
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Foreign interest expected in masterplan approved Nine site at Willoughby

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Melbourne is growing faster than most cities of similar size in developed countries. Population growth averaged <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/Home/2016%20QuickStats" target="_blank">more than 2.5% a year between 2011 and 2018</a>.
Other international cities that are also known for their livability typically recorded slower population growth than Melbourne. For example, over the decade to 2016, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-14/melbourne-loses-most-liveable-city-title-to-vienna/10117338" target="_blank">Vienna</a> grew <a href="https://www.ceicdata.com/en/austria/population-by-region/population-vienna" target="_blank">about half as fast as Melbourne</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-most-livable-city-is-not-vancouver-its-calgary-101957" target="_blank">Greater Vancouver</a> about <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/as-sa/fogs/spg/Facts-cd-eng.cfm?GC=5915&amp;GK=CD&amp;Lang=Eng" target="_blank">one-third slower</a>. Vienna and Vancouver are also smaller cities than Melbourne.
Melbourne is also fast becoming an economically and socially polarised city. Cheaper housing may attract people to outer suburban living, but it comes at a price.
If Melbourne is divided into inner, middle and outer urban areas, each containing about one-third of the city’s jobs, the greatest share of the city’s population (46.6%) lives in the outer local government areas (LGAs). This share is increasing as population grows rapidly, accounting for <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/%20Home/2016%20QuickStats" target="_blank">57.5% of the growth between 2011 and 2016</a>.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274852/original/file-20190516-69213-jun1wc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Inner, middle and outer Melbourne, each area holding approximately one-third of jobs in Melbourne. Author provided
At the same time, these outer LGAs have the fewest jobs per 1,000 residents. Many workers have to make long commuting trips, with associated congestion impacts.
What are the consequences of this pattern of growth?
Our <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big" target="_blank">newly published research</a> examines the capacity of Melbourne residents to capture income, as well as the findings on some important social outcomes.
Population growth and jobs in Melbourne
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275049/original/file-20190517-69182-582byv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/%20Home/2016%20QuickStats" target="_blank">From Australian Bureau of Statistics (n.d.), Quickstats</a>, Author provided
Over the 1992-2017 period, relative to Victorians as a whole, residents in each of the six fastest-growing outer Melbourne LGAs (Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham) <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big" target="_blank">went backwards in terms of their share of income</a> from economic activity.
The findings at LGA level show a number of quite strong spatial associations. Differences in travel time or distance to central Melbourne have particularly clear impacts. As travel times from an LGA to central Melbourne increase, we see declines in:
<ul>
<li>population and job densities</li>
<li>median house prices</li>
<li>capital stock per person</li>
<li>the proportion of higher educated people</li>
<li>the proportion of jobs that are high-tech</li>
<li>LGA productivity</li>
<li>trust in others</li>
<li>the proportion of people living near public transport, with public transport use to get to work also declining.</li>
</ul>
Proportion of LGA residents who think most people in general can be trusted
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275051/original/file-20190517-69186-1dr8k5f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="/news" target="_blank">health.vic</a>, Author provided
We see increases in:
<ul>
<li>open space per resident</li>
<li>car use to get to work</li>
<li>the proportion of commutes longer than two hours</li>
<li>reports of heart disease and obesity.</li>
</ul>
Hectares of public open space per 1,000 residents
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275055/original/file-20190517-69182-3nw5lk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Victorian Planning Authority data, Author provided
These correlations suggest cheaper housing and better access to open space, which may attract people to outer suburban living, come at a price. These costs are commonly associated with the lower population and job densities at greater distances from central Melbourne.
The fastest-growing outer suburbs tend to show lower levels of some of the drivers or social conditions needed to achieve social inclusion, well-being and health. For example, additional challenges can be seen in <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big" target="_blank">higher levels of child development vulnerability</a>, which tend to lead to early school leaving and youth unemployment. This can reduce the ability of individuals to be productive, while at the same time increasing societal expenses in areas such as welfare payments, health costs, law enforcement and remediation costs of family violence and substance abuse.
Youth (age 15-19) unemployment rates by LGA
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275053/original/file-20190517-69204-1od64v.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="/news" target="_blank">health.vic</a>, Author provided
Increasing inequality, social, congestion and productivity costs are linked with infrastructure spending that has been too low to meet the needs of the rapidly growing population. The <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/publications/research-papers/melbourne-how-big" target="_blank">research</a> suggests a backlog of around A$125 billion to enable the six fastest-growing outer LGAs to achieve growth in gross regional product per resident of working-age population in line with the state average. Additional spending will be needed to cater for subsequent population growth and to tackle problems beyond the six outer growth LGAs, such as traffic congestion and crowded public transport.
What can be done about this?
Steps can be taken to reduce the growing scale of future infrastructure spending. These include a more determined focus on delivering the intent of <a href="https://www.planmelbourne.vic.gov.au/the-plan" target="_blank">Plan Melbourne 2017-50</a> that Melbourne becomes a more compact city. This would mean a much higher share of population growth is located in inner and middle suburbs with good public transport access, particularly to the CBD and to the inner and middle urban <a href="https://vpa.vic.gov.au/faq/national-employment-innovation-cluster/" target="_blank">National Employment and Innovation Clusters</a> identified in the plan.
Outer urban densities also need to increase. There must be a greater focus on delivering a city of 20-minute neighbourhoods. This calls for higher levels of local services, including bus and active transport opportunities (cycling and walking), provided <a href="https://theconversation.com/build-in-good-services-from-day-one-for-healthier-communities-lessons-from-selandra-rise-58790" target="_blank">in a more timely manner</a>. A focus on big infrastructure projects can crowd out attention on such locally important priorities.
Regional Victoria can play a <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-how-regional-rail-can-help-ease-our-big-cities-commuter-crush-81902" target="_blank">bigger role in catering for population growth</a>. However, to do so sustainably it needs to substantially increase its non-farm productivity. This was about one-fifth higher than in Melbourne 20 years ago but is now about one-fifth lower, as Melbourne’s knowledge economy has boomed.
The research does not take account of many other impacts of high population growth. Among these are the <a href="https://theconversation.com/elephants-and-economics-how-to-ensure-we-value-wildlife-properly-107184" target="_blank">loss of ecosystem services</a>, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-protect-fresh-food-supplies-here-are-the-key-steps-to-secure-city-foodbowls-114085" target="_blank">loss of food-growing land through urban sprawl</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-town-is-almost-out-of-water-could-australian-cities-suffer-the-same-fate-90933" target="_blank">increasing freshwater scarcity</a>, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-our-cities-can-cut-transport-emissions-in-a-hurry-avoid-shift-share-and-improve-106076" target="_blank">transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions</a>. These issues all have impacts on productivity, health and well-being.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117244/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney
Janet Stanley, Principal Research Fellow – Urban Social Resilience, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne
Peter Brain, Executive Director, National Institute of Economic and Industry Research
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rapid-growth-is-widening-melbournes-social-and-economic-divide-117244" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Rapid growth is widening Melbourne’s social and economic divide

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GUEST OBSERVATION
If we can avoid a recession for another two years, then on July 1, 2021 Australia will have recorded a record 30 years of economic expansion. We will be entering our fourth decade recession-free.
That’s the expectation embedded in the Reserve Bank’s latest set of forecasts in its <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy</a>. But it will be a challenge.
A major downturn in housing markets, historically low interest rates and an international economy more complex and troublesome than we have seen for decades mean the new government will need to take bold and creative decisions in order for us to achieve this truly remarkable milestone.
Things would be okay globally…
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274096/original/file-20190513-183080-1p0rgsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274096/original/file-20190513-183080-1p0rgsy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy May 2019</a>
The bank has painted a benign picture of the global economic outlook for the next few years after recent data have allayed concerns about a US recession.
The Chinese authorities appear to have stabilised growth in the world’s second largest economy after fears of a steeper decline in activity emerged late last year. Although the Chinese economy faces many challenges, there doesn’t appear to be any signs of an imminent problem.
That should leave economic growth in Australia’s major trading partners at a respectable rate of 3.75% over the next few years, not too different to the global economy. While not exactly a boom, it should be enough to support the Australian economy through to 2021.
This is reflected in the bank’s expectations for the key sectors linking Australia to the world economy. Resource exports are expected to experience strong growth, as are education exports and tourism.
The bank is even expecting manufacturing exports to grow, due to healthy global economic growth and a low Australian dollar. The same can’t be said for rural exports, with drought conditions expected to hurt our international sales for some time.
…were it not for the threat of a trade war
This otherwise upbeat assessment of global economic prospects could come to naught if the renewed trade dispute between the US and China intensifies. The bank identifies this as a major risk to Australia’s economic outlook.
Even though Australia could benefit from the dispute via Chinese domestic economic stimulus in response to difficulties in moving exports, a continuation of rising protectionist measures would impact us directly and indirectly as global economic growth slowed.
Managing the China relationship in the midst of Trump’s trade war will be critical for the incoming government. A misstep could see China use non-tariff measures to slow Australia’s exports.
It would also make life difficult for Australian companies attempting to capitalise on the opportunities offered by China’s emerging middle class.
In Australia, households are battening down
The Reserve Bank expects employment to continue to grow by enough to keep the unemployment rate stable. However, there seems to be little prospect of a rapid pick up in either wages or inflation that will make a dent in Australia’s household debt burdens.
The bank has made it clear that the very low inflation environment will be with us for several years to come. It expects the inflation pulse of the economy, which appears to have slipped to around 1.5% in the past six months, to only slowly pick up, climbing towards 2% by 2020 and just above 2% (and back into the Reserve Bank’s target zone) in 2021.
That gradual increase is unlikely to be meaningfully outstripped by wages growth, implying either a very small lift in living standards or no increase in living standards. It will result in very low consumption growth.
The bank is forecasting historically weak consumption growth of about 2.5% for the next few years. It will put the high-employing retail sector under pressure.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274095/original/file-20190513-183077-5xz4du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274095/original/file-20190513-183077-5xz4du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/" target="_blank">Reserve Bank Statement on Monetary Policy forecasts, May 2019</a>
Two more rate cuts…
The only good news for households (those with debt at least) is that there is interest rate relief in prospect. The bank uses market pricing for the interest rate assumptions in its forecasts. Markets are pricing a cash rate of 1% over the year ahead, down from the present record-low 1.5%. The bank suggests it will come in two cuts of 25 points.
Even with 50 points of cuts factored in, the bank believes it will only just meet its targets of falling unemployment and 2% inflation. It might have to cut further.
But the effectiveness of interest rate cuts as a way of bolstering the economy is in serious question.
The costs of sustained easy money are rising.
Not only is wealth inequality a potential problem, but as interest rates get lower the banks find cuts harder to pass cuts on.
…but they mightn’t be enough
A major issue for the new government will be to recognise the new-found importance of fiscal policy (spending and tax policy) to support economic growth. It will need to be used in an even handed way, without a hint of pork barrelling. Otherwise it will be wasted.
While lower interest rates will good news for the large proportion of Australians that have mortgages, they will not be great for savers. Whether it is someone saving for a home deposit or someone living off retirement savings, super low interest rates will not make life easier.
This challenging environment for Australian households will have implications beyond just the economy’s performance, making <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-populist-moment-has-arrived-111491" target="_blank">for tricky political waters</a>. Populist political propositions will have much more resonance in difficult times, particularly in regional and rural areas with high retiree populations and the exposure to drought.
The next Australian government should not be complacent.
It will need to adopt an explicit strategy needs to deal with the economic and political fallout from the adjustments within the household sector. it will need to address falling wealth and low real income growth through serious structural reforms aimed at driving up productivity and real wages.
In the short term the government is going to need to be ready to deploy its substantial resources to support households should conditions deteriorate. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-income-tax-questions-answered-in-three-easy-charts-labor-and-coalition-proposals-side-by-side-115450" target="_blank">low and middle income tax offset</a> are a good starting point.
Business is in good shape so far…
Although business confidence has dropped over the past nine months, the Reserve Bank expects businesses to continue to invest and hire new staff. It expects non-mining business investment to expand at a healthy rate. But this can’t be taken for granted given the precarious nature of consumer demand.
The next government will have to be acutely sensitive to the risk of undermining business confidence. A hiring strike by business would be dangerous for an economy tiptoeing along a knife edge.
We might be surprised by good news. In other advanced economies an unexpected bonus has been strong employment growth despite economic and political uncertainty and modest economic growth.
While this international experience shouldn’t give us confidence that stronger employment growth translate into stronger wage growth, it might at least help maintain consumer spending in the face of lower house prices.
…except for construction
The Reserve Bank is explicit in its expectation that housing construction will turn down over the next two years. The drop off in activity could be big and have a major negative impact on employment. Although there is currently a high level of activity in commercial construction, particularly infrastructure-related activity, it is unlikely to be big enough to offset the downturn in housing construction.
Governments across Australia have an opportunity to think about nation building. Funding costs are low, government finances are strong and the shrinking construction sector will free up labour and other resources for important projects.
Which means its time for nation building
The next term of government will see very little economic momentum originating from consumers. They are in balance sheet repair mode. That makes it the perfect time for the governments to lead the way and drive private sector economic activity through a whole range of long-term investments in Australia’s future.
Coordinating this with the states and identifying the right projects will be the most important challenge facing the new government.
Warren Hogan, Industry Professor, University of Technology Sydney
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-next-government-can-usher-in-our-fourth-decade-recession-free-but-it-will-be-dicey-116887" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The next government can usher in our fourth decade recession-free, but it will be dicey

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The Ray White chairman Brian White has called the bottom of the property market in the wake of the Coalition’s return to government.
Although the latest price data - for the first two thirds of May – shows a market still in decline albeit with a moderation in the pace of price.
Labor’s planned wind back of the negative gearing and capital gains tax discounts along with opposition Treasury spokesman Chris Bowen’s dismissal of people’s concerns over the risk of negative ­equity in their homes had “ricocheted through the whole community”, Mr White told The Australian.
Brian White noted the market had worries over Labor’s policies and there had been uncertainty surrounding the election which had been a drag on confidence.
Prices in both Sydney and Melbourne have fallen more than 10 per cent over the past year, with values dropping 7.2 per cent on a national basis, according to CoreLogic.
Not all commentators expect an end to the downturn.
In an article by the AFR, Aussie Home loan founder John Symonds said the “confidence” levels would now steady instead of worsen.   Symonds there would be "a boost for confidence."
"The property market will settle down again now. It is going back to health,” he said.
AMP Capital's Shane Oliver saying "the removal of the threat to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount and a slowing in new supply next year will help the property market bottom out short of the worst case falls some are putting out there."
Goldman Sachs economists are forecasting a "moderate positive shock to sentiment in the corporate sector and a more meaningful one in the housing sector".
<a href="/news/rea-group-sees-listings-decline-especially-in-sydney-and-melbourne">The REA Group warned earlier this month</a> that the market conditions are "not expected to improve in the short term", noting slowing listing volumes given the distractions of the federal election as well as the Easter and Anzac Day long weekends in April.
The post election analysis comes after all the April and May marketing interruptions which saw Ray White offices <a href="/news/ray-white-sees-14-year-on-year-sales-tally-decline-in-april-2019">record a 14% drop in sales on April 2018</a>, the Ray White board director Dan White noted last week.
"Looking back on April, it was a tough month and we are actually glad it’s now behind us given all the public holidays, school holidays and the federal election campaign getting underway," White said.
Brian White affirmed that lifting restrictions on credit would be key to any recovery in the markets.
“Banking policy will be critical,” Mr White said.
“A cut from the RBA will be useful but this is one downturn where interest rates had no impact.”
He said the Reserve Bank’s fear of a further declining housing market would be eased with the risks of Labor’s policy removed.
According to Ray White Surfers Paradise Group CEO Andrew Bell, now that the election is over, "one of the major impediments on the real estate market has been removed and we have greater clarity and certainty about the lay of the land."
“There’s been a lot of negativity around this election which has impacted consumer confidence, and this comes on top of a challenging year that has been impacted by tighter lending conditions that have put the brakes on buyer activity.
“There were massive fears about the effects of the proposed changes to negative gearing proposed by Labor,” said Mr Bell.
“That would have put the real estate market in uncharted waters and would have undeniably had major effects, particularly in established neighbourhoods that predominately have second-hand properties.”
Bell suggested Labor’s policy on negative gearing on new properties was likely to have channelled more capital into new developments. 
“There’s no question it would have been a boost to the volume of buyers of new projects, but so many of these are not in areas where tenants are seeking rental accommodation.
“It would have led to values in some suburbs being boosted artificially through added demand, while other suburbs would have suffered huge declines in the volume of buyers. It would have been simply unfair on existing house-owners in those suburbs.”
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Ray White boss Brian White thinks Coalition return will trigger end of real estate downturn

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Watermill, a Red Hill property on Melbourne's Mornington Peninsula has been listed with expectations of $25 million plus.
The property at <a href="https://www.realcommercial.com.au/property-commercial+farming-vic-red+hill-503198022" target="_blank">725 White Hill Road</a> comprises 119.5 hectares.
It is spread across 12 separate titles.
Watermill is on the market for the first time since 1982, offered through Cushman &amp; Wakefield Agribusiness.
The international expressions of interest closes June 18.
Watermill has commanding views of Western Port, Port Phillip Bay and Melbourne. It was formerly a Murray Grey cattle stud, with facilities commissioned for entertaining purposed in anticipation of the 1956 Olympics. 
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Watermill at Red Hill listed with $25 million plus hopes

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EXPERT OBSERVER
<a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292"></a>
Albo, or Plibersek, or whoever it turns out to be the next Labor leader, might have had a lucky accident. Usually, it’s Labor that inherits an economy turning down.
This time, it’s the Coalition. And because of regular updates from the Reserve Bank and the Bureau of Statistics strikingly at odds with their public position that the economy strong, they ought to be finely attuned to it.
Economic growth, the catch-all that is supposed to show us where the economy has been and where it is headed, is frighteningly small.
The treasury’s best estimate of potential growth – how strongly the economy could be growing over time if things were well managed – is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/myefo-treasury-downgrades-its-budget-projections-20151124-gl6mfd" target="_blank">2.75% per year</a>.
The reality, for the two most recent quarters for which we have data, is <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0" target="_blank">0.3% and 0.2%</a>.
<h2>The economy is anaemic, despite the crowing</h2>
If you add those two numbers together and multiply by two you discover that for six months the economy has been growing at an annualised pace of just 1% – way, way short of its potential.
Stripping out population growth and minimal price growth, real living standards have been going backwards.
The result of what the Reserve Bank describes as “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/pdf/domestic-economic-conditions.pdf" target="_blank">persistently slow growth in household incomes and declining housing prices</a>” has been something of a strike in consumer spending. The real value of spending per household hasn’t been falling, but it hasn’t really been climbing either.
The bank says consumption growth has slowed most noticeably for discretionary items that tend to have the strongest relationship with home buying, such as furnishing and household equipment. It says growth in other types of discretionary spending, such as eating out, has also slowed. Consumption of so-called “essential” items is holding up.
<h2>We’re going to need a boost</h2>
It means we can’t rely on household spending to revitalise the economy (although the government will give it a go, stumping up a bonus of <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-budget-cash-splash-that-reaches-back-in-time-114188" target="_blank">as much as $1,080</a> to be delivered with each tax return from July in a much-needed boost that will be disguised as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-tip-23-9-is-a-meaningless-figure-ignore-the-tax-to-gdp-ratio-115432" target="_blank">tax cut rather than spending</a>).
Household spending accounts for three-fifths of gross domestic product. The bank identifies uncertainty over household spending, which itself derives from uncertainty over income growth, as a “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/pdf/economic-outlook.pdf" target="_blank">key risk</a>” for economic growth:
<blockquote>
Should households conclude that low income growth will be more persistent than previously expected, households may adjust their spending by more than currently projected and consumption growth could remain weak for a longer period
</blockquote>
Labor would have helped stabilise uncertainty over income growth by immediately intervening before the Fair Work Commission to get higher wages, directing it to draw up a long-term strategy for higher wages, restoring cut penalty rates, and funding the increases of some childcare workers itself.Having won an election opposing those things, the Coalition will have to try other things, perhaps even bigger and earlier tax cuts.
Prayer would help – prayer that international commodity markets remain strong, that the Reserve Bank cuts rates on June 4 (it is practically certain to), that it cuts them again before the end of the year (financial markets are literally 100% certain that it will) and that home prices stabilise.
<h2>Perhaps a very big boost</h2>
On the face of it, none of these would be enough to force economic growth back up. If it falls even further, and continues to fall, Australia will enter a recession within this term of government, an outcome to which the academic economists polled by The Conversation in January <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-surplus-no-share-market-growth-no-lift-in-wage-growth-economic-survey-points-to-bleaker-times-post-election-110315" target="_blank">assigned a 25% probability</a>.
So far employment growth has been the economy’s brightest light, but in its quarterly update released a week before the election, the Reserve Bank pointed out that employment growth can lag economic growth by <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2019/may/pdf/domestic-economic-conditions.pdf" target="_blank">up to nine months</a>, meaning it might be about to turn down, although it added that it was not unusual for “trends in GDP growth and the labour market to diverge for sustained periods”.
If employment growth does turn down (and the bank says “near-term leading indicators of labour demand have softened”) it is likely to happen first in the construction and retail industries. The construction jobs will come again (and the government is doing its best to bolster them with promises of spending on infrastructure) but the retail jobs might never return, the nature of retailing having changed.
<h2>The economy matters more than the surplus</h2>
If needed in order to avoid a recession the government will have to be prepared to abandon its promised 2019-20 budget surplus. If the prospect of a recession does loom, it’ll have the political cover. And if it looms early in its term, it might still be able to deliver a budget surplus by the end.
Scott Morrison and his treasurer Josh Frydenberg were elected to manage the economy, and that means doing whatever is needed to avoid a recession and the long term damage to lives and living standards it would deliver.
Speaking personally, I’ve no doubt they are up to the task, just as Labor would have been. In a way it’s a pity they didn’t adopt one of Labor’s key economic promises, which was to have a new budget in August, to refresh things.
<h2>And it matters more than superannuation</h2>
And they’ve got to focus on lifting living standards over the longer-term, where conveniently, they have a big advantage over Labor.
Labor has a blindspot when it comes to superannuation. It wants to lift compulsory contributions from 9.5% of salary to 10% on July 2021, and then by another 0.5% the next year and another 0.5% the next year and so on for five consecutive years, apparently regardless of what it will do to incomes now.
It’s a good thing that unlike Labor, the Coalition will be relaxed about pushing out the timetable if the economy can’t stand it, as it has done before.
Before the election it was preparing to respond to the landmark <a href="https://theconversation.com/frydenberg-should-call-a-no-holds-barred-inquiry-into-superannuation-now-because-labor-wont-114079" target="_blank">Productivity Commisson report</a> that found that unintended multiple accounts and the defaulting of new workers into entrenched underperforming funds were costing members an extraordinary A$3.8 billion per year.
<h2>The Coalition can set up super for the future</h2>
Weeding out the chronic underperformers, clamping down on unwanted multiple accounts and insurance policies, and letting workers choose funds from a short menu of good funds and stay in them for life would give the typical worker entering the workforce an extra $533,000 in retirement.
It recommended a full-blown independent inquiry into <a href="https://theconversation.com/frydenberg-should-call-a-no-holds-barred-inquiry-into-superannuation-now-because-labor-wont-114079" target="_blank">how much superannuation we need</a>.
Labor, wedded to a series of increases, would never have done it. The Coalition can.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/their-biggest-challenge-avoiding-a-recession-117381" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Frydenberg and Morrison's biggest challenge? Avoiding a recession: Peter Martin

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Ascot's Lancaster, which exudes all the elegance and luxury of Brisbane's bygone art deco era, has been listed for June 1 auction.
It was designed by celebrated architect Charles H. Griffin for its 825 square metre <a href="https://www.raywhite.com/qld/ascot/2101400/?lang=en" target="_blank">Kitchener Road block</a> in 1938.
He suggested his homes conveyed a “feeling of solidity” which he felt was missing from Queenslander-style homes.
Griffin was famous at the time for designing homes with a trademark cream textured finish above a red brick base and red Wunderlich roof tiles.
Set behind wrought iron front entrance gates, the home's interiors which include cornices, double French doors, leadlight windows and crystal chandeliers.
Ray White New Farm agent Christine Rudolph said the four bedroom home has been meticulously cared for by its vendors for almost two decades, chartered accountants Carmela and Paul Balbuziente, who are downsizing to be close to the water.
This article first appeared in The Weekend Australian.
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Art deco Ascot trophy home Lancaster listed

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Perhaps the most woefully misunderstood economic issue of the election campaign has been negative gearing.
I’ve been baffled by the number of times I’ve read commentary by otherwise thoughtful people describing negative gearing as a distortion to the property market – as a rort we need to crack down on.
But as someone who knows a bit about the economics of taxation, I can say that simply isn’t true.
Negative gearing is a natural, orthodox and proper feature of any market for investment. And allowing negative gearing to be tax deductible is an essential component of an efficient tax system.
Negative gearing isn’t an account in the Cayman Islands
Negative gearing is a funny term. If you search online, you won’t find the term used in most parts of the world. Not because it’s not allowed, but because the term makes it sound grander than it is. In reality, negative gearing is nothing special – it’s boring and conventional.
If it didn’t have a fancy name, perhaps so many column inches wouldn’t have been wasted writing about it. And maybe we wouldn’t have cast it as a villain that must be slain.
When you buy an asset (such as a home), you bear costs (such as interest) in exchange for two types of return: cash (such as rent) and a rise in value (called a capital gain).
To tax the entire return, we should add up the rent and capital gain over the life of the asset and deduct the interest, maintenance and depreciation expenses.
The capital gain might not be achieved for years – not until the asset is sold, so the total might come out negative for some years while the interest and other expenses exceed the rent received (that’s all “negative gearing” is).
Ordinary people do it
This needn’t mean you’re a wild speculator. With a 20% deposit, 4% interest rate and 3% annual rental yields seen in Sydney recently, you’d be running a loss until you sold.
Investors should be able to deduct this loss from their other income, or carry it forward to future years if they don’t have income that year.
This is completely orthodox economics. It ensures tax applies equally to the upside and downside of an investment (or it would, if the eventual capital gain wasn’t only half taxed – more on that later).
Restricting this will depress investment. Fewer investors will buy investment properties and those without the ability to negatively gear will spend less on maintenance and the like.
Fewer buyers of homes will mean lower prices for homes. How much lower is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/confirmation-from-nsw-treasury-labors-negative-gearing-policy-would-barely-move-house-prices-116736" target="_blank">matter of debate</a>.
Removing it could push prices down, and up
On the other hand, in order to support the building of new homes, Labor will allow investors in new homes to continue to benefit from negative gearing, outlawing it only for new investors in existing homes. That’ll push up the price of new homes, and encourage the building of more new homes than are needed.
Some have blamed negative gearing for house prices that are far higher than they should be. While there’s no good evidence on that, it’s surely true that prices are higher with negative gearing than without it.
But rather than being the root cause of the housing affordability crisis – of prices that are higher than they should be – negative gearing is really more of a catalyst.
It’s an enabler rather than a problem
The real culprit is the generous 50% discount on the taxation of capital gains. It means that while losses can be written off at the full tax rate, the eventual gain is taxed at only half the full rate.
Winding back the capital gains tax concession was recommended by the <a href="http://taxreview.treasury.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=html/pubs_reports.htm" target="_blank">Henry Tax Review</a>, was hinted at in the Treasury <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/c2015-rethink-dp-TWP_combined-online.pdf" target="_blank">tax discussion paper</a> commissioned by Coalition Treasurer Joe Hockey, and has been <a href="https://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing" target="_blank">adopted by Labor</a>.
The focus of taxation when it comes to housing should be on neutrality – that decisions of whether to invest in housing are just as they would be if there were no taxes. A lower capital gains tax discount would come closer to doing that. Then negative gearing could stay.
The goal of tax policy should be neither to support nor depress house prices, but rather to let the market evolve on its own. Negative gearing can be part of that.
Steven Hamilton, Visiting Scholar, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-surprise-negative-gearing-isnt-a-rort-but-something-else-is-117247" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Negative gearing isn’t a rort — but something else is: Steven Hamilton

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Laila in Carnegie, Steller’s latest apartment development has incorporated a new ‘flexible space’ product into it's one bedroom apartments.
Located at 7 – 11 Belsize Avenue, all Laila one-bedroom apartments now include a flexible space component which allows purchasers to choose between incorporating a butlers pantry, study or nursery into the floor plan.
With the addition of this space, one-bedrooms are now 54 to 70 square metres.
According to James Cirelli, Steller’s Project Sales &amp; Marketing Director, this product offers an affordable way for purchasers to add value to their homes while adapting to their own individual requirements.
“Design expectations for off-the-plan developments continue to rise as buyers become savvier about their home and how it needs to function. This flexible space component opens up a world of possibilities for our Laila first home buyers, downsizers and expecting families,” said Cirelli.
With 35 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across four levels, Laila has been designed by architects Ewert Leaf.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/14/Steller%202.jpg" alt="">
Alongside its expansive one-bedroom apartments, two-bedrooms range from 69 to 100 square metres and three-bedrooms from 125 to 138 square metres.
Cirelli said that Laila caters to the evolving needs of the modern buyer, who want to be close to cafés, shops and recreational facilities.
“Steller’s approach to development is community-centric and we recognise that buyers are now considering a multitude of factors in their purchase, including aesthetics, interior design, location, amenities and community,” he added
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/14/Steller%203.jpg" alt="">
“The flexibility of Laila’s location allows for unrivalled access to coveted school catchment zones. Iconic Caufield Racecourse is just 10 minutes away and offers a range of family- friendly and sporting events throughout the year.”
“Close proximity to nearby Koornang Park and Lord Reserve is an added bonus for Laila residents who can enjoy a weekend stroll or spontaneous family picnic,” he said.
The Laila display suite is now open and prices start from $550,000.
Steller’s flexible space component has also been incorporated into its recently launched Maude Residences at 7-11 Maude Street, Cheltenham and Sora at 13-15 Hamilton Street, Bentleigh.
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Laila in Carnegie development adds 'flexible spaces' to its one bedroom units

Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

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La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

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The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

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<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

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Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

Staff reporter

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