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EXPERT OBSERVER
An expected soft update but a robust trend in participation is making it very hard to see unemployment getting below 5% any time soon, let alone getting down the RBA’s natural rate of 4.5%. Westpac is forecasting the unemployment rate to rise from here.
The June Labour Force Survey reported a 500 gain in employment. So far this year employment has been quite robust with a three month average gain of 29.2k in June from 35.8k in May and 24.45k in April.
The trend in employment remains on par with the three month average gain of 31.2k in January.
The May survey reported a strong 45.3k gain in employment (revised from 42.3k) with participation surging to a new record high of 66.0% boosting the labour force and lifting unemployment to 5.2%.
As such, we had thought there was a high risk of a statistical correction this month which is why we forecast a modest 10k rise in employment. The market median was 9k.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%201.jpg" alt="">
 
In the year to June, employment has grown 296.3k or 2.4%.
The pace of employment growth has eased back from 2.9% in May but it is still stronger than the 2.2% at the end of 2018.
Our Jobs Index suggests employment should be growing around 2.4%yr currently before slowing to 2.1% through Q4.
In June, unemployment was flat at 5.2% (5.24% at two decimal places so just a whisker from 5.3% - it was 5.19% in May) and with the participation holding a record high of 66.0% (65.98% at two decimal places from 66.03% in May) the labour force grew just 700.
We had expected that a statistical decline in participation would have seen the unemployment rate fall to 5.1%.
Today’s update is further confirmation of a robust upwards trend in participation particularly in NSW which hit a record high of 66.2% in May.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%202.jpg" alt="">
The big surprise in June was the drop in underemployment (those employed who are willing and able to work more hours) which fell 0.4ppts to 8.2%.
Underemployment did not improve as much as unemployment through 2018 and had recently been trending higher compared to the unemployment rate.
The correction in June has mostly reversed the surprising 0.3ppt jump in April.
In Victoria, the underemployment rate fell 1.5ppt taking that state’s underemployment rate back to 7.9%, more in line with 7.5% in NSW.
We had been surprised by just how high underemployment has been in Vic over the last few months.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%203.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%203.jpg" alt="">
In the last year to June, most of the gains in employment have been full-time (246.5k/2.9%) and the share has been split evenly between males (121k/2.2%) and females (125.5k/4.0%).
As females are growing from a lower base they have a much faster growth rate but it is somewhat surprising that in the year to June, part-time female employment has been broadly flat while male part-time employment has grown at a 4.2% pace over the year. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%204.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%204.jpg" alt="">
Employment growth has held together so far in 2019 even if it is on a softening trend.
Unemployment and underemployment are drifting higher but the employment to population ratio has held around 62.4% since the end of 2019 highlighting that the rise in unemployment is more about rising participation than weak employment.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/18/unemployment%205.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/18/unemployment%205.jpg" alt="">
In the year to June, employment has grown 121.9k/3.5% in NSW compared to 126.5k/3.8% gain in Victoria.
Employment grew more modestly in Queensland (27.9k/1.8%) and just 11k/1.7% in South Australia and 20.5k/0.9%yr in Western Australian.
In the year to April unemployment has fallen 0.1ppt in NSW to 4.6% (the national low), –0.8ppt in Victoria to 4.8% and rose 0.6ppt in Queensland at 6.5%.
In which case, Queensland rose to 6.5% from 6.2% in May or 5.8% in June 2018. But this trend is shifting with unemployment up 0.3ppt in the last six months in NSW, 0.6ppt in Victoria with a 0.4ppt rise in Queensland.
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Unemployment rate set to rise: Westpac's Justin Smirk

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Macquarie Bank has made changes to its home loan serviceability assessment policy, reducing its interest rate floor from 7.25% to 5.3%.
Their new assessment rate floor is up to 45 basis points lower than the rest of the big four.
It has increased the assessment buffer rate from 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent, which is in line with changes by Westpac and ANZ.
Suncorp Bank has also revealed to stated that it will be cutting its interest rate floor from 7.25% to 5.5%
Westpac has also reduced their savings rates by up to 0.20 per cent.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/19/Macquaire%202.png" alt="">
(Source: RateCity.com.au)
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall said, "customers with an eSaver will be bitterly disappointed to find out they’ll be earning just 0.15 per cent interest on their savings on an ongoing basis. "
“All eyes are now on CBA to see what cuts they’ll make to their savings accounts. As the nation’s biggest bank, savings account holders are waiting with bated breath"
Thus far CBA is the only big bank that hasn’t cut savings rates following the July RBA cash rate cut.
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Macquarie Bank cuts interest rate floor 2 per cent, CBA unmoved

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EXPERT OBSERVER
First home buyers have kept Victoria at the top of the rankings in the HIA’s Housing Scorecard.
The HIA Housing Scorecard report presents analysis which ranks each of the eight states and territories based on the performance of twelve key residential building indicators.
Analysis in this edition of the HIA Housing Scorecard shows that Victoria is still supporting a strong level of building activity on the ground, despite a slowdown in the volume of new work entering the pipeline, added Mr Reardon.
First home buyers have been taking advantage of the improved affordability of homes.
The upside of the recent building industry cycle is that as activity levels have synchronised across the east and west coasts – and within each state - it has become easier for policy makers to coordinate policy settings.
National policy settings - including repeal of regulatory restrictions, lower interest rates and now income tax cuts - have shifted to encourage growth. The market now faces more consistent and appropriate regulatory settings across the economy which should, in turn, put a floor under the market downturn.
For much of the past decade there have been highly divergent market conditions between capital cities and even within each state. This has challenged policy makers who were attempting to cool the boom in Sydney and Melbourne markets and in doing so, inadvertently exacerbated the downturn in markets in Western Australia and Northern Queensland.
There is a convergence of conditions underway in the building industry as the markets in Sydney andMelbourne cool, meaning they have joined the resource intensive jurisdictions with more modest levels of building activity.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/19/HIA%20.png" alt="">
TIM REARDON is the Chief Economist for HIA
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First home buyers Keep Victoria In top spot: HIA's Tim Reardon

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GUEST OBSERVATION 
Of all the mantras for modernism, the one I think most befitting for Australian mid-century modern houses is <a href="http://arti.sba.uniroma3.it/esprit/" target="_blank">L'esprit Nouveau</a> – The New Spirit. These houses represented more than style; they reflected a new Australian spirit that emerged in the postwar era.
Modernism was established in Europe at the beginning of the 20th century. An intentional shift away from classical tradition, it was informed by new technology and mass production. While early modernism was weighed down by the avant garde and elitism, mid-century modernism - which includes architecture from the 1950s to the late 1970s - became accessible and was embraced internationally.
The current resurgence in popularity of mid-century modern houses in Australia has been spurred by websites such as <a href="https://modernistaustralia.com" target="_blank">Modernist Australia</a>, social media groups for “MCM” enthusiasts, <a href="https://www.heide.com.au/exhibitions/design-life-grant-and-mary-featherston" target="_blank">public exhibitions</a>, and even real estate agents dedicated to selling the <a href="http://www.modernhouse.co/" target="_blank">Modern House</a>.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283628/original/file-20190711-173325-1ewrzm7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283628/original/file-20190711-173325-1ewrzm7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> 
Boyd House, Walsh Street, South Yarra 1958. Architect: Robin Boyd. Photograph: Mark Strizic, c.1965 Mark Strizic Collection State Library Victoria Melbourne © Estate of Mark Strizic
 
A fascination with mid-century modernism has also been explored in the two-part documentary <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/tv/programs/streets-of-your-town/" target="_blank">Streets of Your Town</a>, hosted by comedian and self-proclaimed “architecture tragic” <a href="https://www.timross.com.au" target="_blank">Tim Ross</a>. He describes how the popularity of these houses was underpinned by purpose as much as style:
<blockquote>
Modernism may have had its birth in Europe and its glamour in America but I think it found its egalitarian purpose, unrivalled anywhere else in the world, in Australia’s suburbs.
</blockquote>
Some enthusiasts point to the television series <a href="https://www.curbed.com/2017/11/22/16690454/midcentury-modern-design-mad-men-eames" target="_blank">Mad Men</a> as the catalyst for international mid-century modern revivalism. But visual culture has also been central to its popularity in Australia. As these homes emerged, so too did the suburbs, which became the setting for much of Australian television and theatre.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283813/original/file-20190712-173329-9h3dfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283813/original/file-20190712-173329-9h3dfz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The hit TV series Mad Men is closely associated with the global revival of mid-century modern style. IMDB
I think this is central to the popularity of these houses. Even if you didn’t grow up in one, you probably watched a family who did on television.
I grew up in a late 70s, mid-century modern home. It was designed by a draftsperson, not an architect, but featured many of the design elements commonly associated with the style. Just like the Kerrigan family in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tf8AjYvQZmE" target="_blank">The Castle</a> we had a pool room, complete with a purpose-built bar.
Mid-century modern in pop culture
Early 20th century Australian architecture, especially during the interwar period, had been burdened with the nationalistic desire to create a distinctly Australian house.
In the postwar era, however, the cultural landscape shifted from the wide brown land to the interior of our suburbs, and especially our homes. Australian culture was motivated by the kind of self-consciousness often associated with modernism. This was reflected in mid-century modern houses, with their humble facades and efficient planning.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265717/original/file-20190325-36273-1dwpj9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265717/original/file-20190325-36273-1dwpj9n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Image of interior of a Royal Victorian Institute of Architects Small Home Services House, designed in conjuction with the Age newspaper, 1955. <a class="source" href="http://search.slv.vic.gov.au/permalink/f/1cl35st/SLV_VOYAGER1758927" target="_blank">Photo: Wolfgang Sievers. Pictures Collection, State Library Victoria</a>
Ray Lawler’s 1955 play <a href="https://australianplays.org/script/CP-2584" target="_blank">Summer of the 17th Doll</a> exemplifies this shift and is considered to be the first Australian play to be set inside a house. Around the same time, in 1956, Melbourne was hosting the Olympic Games, and with a shortage of hotel accommodation, families were asked to billet athletes. This placed Australian homes, in a very real sense, on an international stage.
It was this event that inspired the character <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/dame-edna-60-years-of-megastardom-20151211-glliea" target="_blank">Mrs Norman Everage</a> (later Dame Edna Everage) of Moonee Ponds. The first Edna Everage show revolved around her domestic preparations for international guests in the lead up the 1956 Games. Barry Humphries then took a satirical view of Australian domesticity to an international audience.
Humphries’ critical view on Australian life, alongside books such as David Horne’s <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3305564-the-lucky-country?from_search=true" target="_blank">The Lucky Country</a> (1964) and architect Robin Boyd’s <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2479687.The_Australian_Ugliness?from_search=true" target="_blank">The Australian Ugliness</a> (1960), represented a <a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/books-peter-conrad-coming-age-peter-conrad-robin-boyd-s-australian-ugliness-fifty-years-2175" target="_blank">maturing</a> of Australian culture, which emerged from critical reflections on our position in the world through art, architecture, literature and film.
Boyd and Humphries shared an enduring friendship, and there are many <a href="https://griffithreview.com/articles/a-preposterous-life/" target="_blank">overlaps</a> in their critique of Australian domesticity. Boyd’s work has undoubtedly been at the centre of the current mid-century modern revival. The attention it attracts is not just about his architecture, <a href="https://placesjournal.org/article/revisiting-robin-boyds-anti-architecture/?cn-reloaded=1" target="_blank">but also the sentiments that informed it</a>. For Boyd, architecture was not an isolated discipline, rather it possessed the capacity to shape, and be shaped by, broader social, political, economic and cultural ideas.
Boyd was instrumental in setting up the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-14/treasure-trove-small-homes-helped-deliver-great-australian-dream/9861204" target="_blank">Small Home Service in 1947</a>, which delivered designs for modern, small, flexible, and affordable homes in response to postwar housing shortages. It is probably this aspect of his work that resonates the most – a solution to housing inefficiencies led by professionals for the greater good, not financial greed.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264275/original/file-20190318-28483-1izrisg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264275/original/file-20190318-28483-1izrisg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Brochure of Royal New South Wales Institute of Architects Small Homes Services Catalogue. <a class="source" href="http://collection.hht.net.au/firsthht/fullRecord.jsp?recnoListAttr=recnoList&amp;recno=7433" target="_blank">Caroline Simpson Library &amp; Research Collection, Sydney Living Museums</a>
Great Australian party houses
Of course, there is much to admire about Boyd’s designs, and those of the other architects working for the Small Home Service. Externally, the designs were refined and simple. Australian mid-century modern houses are unique with their pitched roofs in contrast to the flat roofs found in America and Europe. They introduced open plan living areas, a move away from a series of rooms connected by hallways.
This openness brought more light into living spaces, as did bigger windows and glass sliding doors that connected inside and outside. And, as Ross’ book <a href="https://www.booktopia.com.au/the-rumpus-room-tim-ross/prod9780646969886" target="_blank">The Rumpus Room, And other stories from the suburbs</a> (2017) describes, this openness made them great Australian party houses.
Made of prefabricated elements, these houses were a builders’ delight - and affordable. By the 1960s, most large building companies, including AV Jennings offered a range of such houses for sale.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264274/original/file-20190318-28471-1g8ml61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264274/original/file-20190318-28471-1g8ml61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
AV Jenning Homes Brochure 1960s. AV Jennings
This year marks <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-18/1969-federal-election-was-comedy-of-errors-in-tally-room/11124594" target="_blank">50 years since the election party</a> that inspired David Williamson’s play <a href="https://australianplays.org/script/CP-187" target="_blank">Don’s Party</a> (1971). Williamson drew inspiration from his AV Jennings Type 15 home, built in the Melbourne suburb of Bundoora in the 1960s.
In 2011, I asked him how his home had influenced the writing of Don’s Party. He told me:
<blockquote>
a feature of these houses was the openness and connectedness of the living, dining and kitchen areas with the bedrooms down a corridor at the back. This openness allowed one to think of a set design. It was good for the dramatic structure. I drew a floor plan and had the characters’ names on slips of paper which I slid around the floor plan so I knew who was where at any particular time.
</blockquote>
Williamson’s reflections show how these houses were a literal backdrop to writers and performers at the time.
The 1976 film Don’s Party was shot in a house built by Australian company Pettit and Sevitt, founded in 1961. Its design, known as the “Lowline”, was created by architects Ken Woolley and Michael Dysart.
Like the Small Homes Service, Pettit and Sevitt aimed to build good quality, affordable, architect-designed homes. Forty years after closing their business, they have <a href="https://www.pettitandsevitt.com.au" target="_blank">recently re-opened it</a>, such is the current enthusiasm for mid-century modernism.
It seems obvious that the combination of affordability and well designed homes is an irresistible quality. However, the popularity of mid-century homes, - both then and now - runs much deeper. I would argue that they are also a reflection of a nation quietly contemplating its place in the world.
The problem child of heritage
The rise of the mid-century modern house unfortunately coincided with the modernist urban planning principles that resulted in car dependent, low density suburbs on the outskirts of cities. The sprawling nature of these suburbs has contributed to the housing stress many Australians currently experience.
The location of these houses, along with their larger lot sizes, means many have now been demolished and replaced with higher density developments. There is now a sense of urgency about their protection and conservation.
Professor Philip Goad from the University of Melbourne describes modernism as the “<a href="https://australia.icomos.org/wp-content/uploads/Unloved-over-loved-or-just-misunderstood-Modern-architecture-%E2%80%93-the-problem-child-of-heritage-vol-25-no-1.pdf" target="_blank">problem child of heritage</a>”. By this he means, it belongs to an era that has surely passed by, but is too young to be broadly admired as built heritage.
Publications such as <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.bookdepository.com/Designer-Suburbs-Judith-OCallaghan/9781742233468" target="_blank">Designer Suburbs</a>, <a href="https://www.booktopia.com.au/hot-modernism-macarthur-john/prod9781908967589" target="_blank">Hot Modernism</a>, <a href="https://www.booktopia.com.au/australia-modern-hannah-lewi/prod9781760760151?source=pla&amp;gclid=EAIaIQobChMIzNaBppK44wIVkoRwCh0QAwnYEAQYASABEgJUDfD_BwE">Australia Modern</a>, <a href="https://uwap.uwa.edu.au/products/an-unfinished-experiment-in-living-australian-houses-1950-65" target="_blank">An Unfinished Experiment in Living</a>, and <a href="https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/other-moderns/" target="_blank">The Other Moderns</a> have highlighted the broader cultural value of these houses. This has also been part of the mission of the <a href="https://robinboyd.org.au" target="_blank">Robin Boyd Foundation</a>, which has conserved Boyd’s iconic Walsh Street House.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283627/original/file-20190711-173338-ix2qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283627/original/file-20190711-173338-ix2qqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> B
oyd House, Walsh Street, South Yarra 1958. Architect: Robin Boyd. Photograph: John Gollings, 2012 © John Gollings
This year marks 100 years since Boyd’s birth. In August, an exhibition at Melbourne’s <a href="https://www.heide.com.au/exhibitions/robin-boyd-design-legend-0" target="_blank">Heide Museum of Modern Art</a> will celebrate ten of his most iconic houses. The exhibition aims to share Boyd’s “<a href="https://www.heide.com.au/exhibitions/robin-boyd-design-legend-0" target="_blank">humanist belief that good design can improve people’s lives and the world we live in</a>”, capturing both the ethos of mid-century modern and the sense of nostalgia that now surrounds it.
Very few surveys of mid-century modern houses in Australian suburbs exist. In 2018, Bayside Council in Melbourne started a heritage survey of them in the suburbs of <a href="https://architectureau.com/articles/melbourne-council-begins-survey-of-one-of-australias-densest-concentrations-of-mid-century-modernist-homes/" target="_blank">Beaumaris and Black Rock</a>. Unfortunately, less than a year later, council had <a href="https://architectureau.com/articles/melbourne-council-dumps-survey-of-one-of-australias-densest-concentrations-of-mid-century-modernist-architecture/" target="_blank">abandoned the project</a>.
The connection between Australia’s mid-century modern houses and popular culture demonstrates their cultural and heritage value. However, heritage is not simply determined by perceived aesthetic merit – it also needs to address <a href="https://www.icomos.org/risk/2002/20th2002.htm" target="_blank">practical issues</a> such as the maintenance of building materials, as well as good planning principles.
The efforts of mid-century modern enthusiasts have produced greater awareness of the cultural significance of these buildings. In time, they should secure the same heritage protection afforded to other architectural styles.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113363/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kirsty-volz-384905" target="_blank">Kirsty Volz</a>, PhD Candidate, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-why-old-is-new-again-the-mid-century-homes-made-famous-by-dons-party-and-dame-edna-113363" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Why old is new again - the mid-century homes made famous by Don’s Party and Dame Edna: Kirsty Volz

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Water prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin have reached their highest levels since the worst of the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a010-southern-rainfall-decline.shtml#toc1" target="_blank">Millennium drought</a> more than a decade ago.
These high water prices are causing much anxiety in the region, and have led the federal government to call on the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to hold <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-05-30/new-water-minister-ready-for-accc-inquiry/11161730" target="_blank">an inquiry</a> into the water market.
Inevitably, whenever an important good becomes more expensive – be it housing, electricity or water – there is a rush to identify potential causes and culprits. In the past few years high water prices have been blamed on <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-03-25/foreign-owned-water-entitlement-register-reveals-key-countries/10923384" target="_blank">foreign investors</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/29/water-investment-companies-score-bumper-year-as-farmers-hit-by-drought" target="_blank">corporate speculators</a>, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-03-09/irrigators-signal-electoral-challenge-in-safe-liberal-farrer/10852828" target="_blank">state government water-sharing rules</a>, <a href="https://www.afr.com/real-estate/commercial/development/murraydarling-water-scarcity-bites-almond-citrus-grape-growers-20190301-h1bw1n" target="_blank">new almond plantings</a> and the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://amp.abc.net.au/article/10931366" target="_blank">Murray-Darling Basin Plan</a>.
While some of these factors have had an effect on the market, they are in many ways a distraction from the simpler truth: that high water prices have mostly been caused by a lack of rain.
Supply drives the market
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283224/original/file-20190709-51312-1bmd1r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283224/original/file-20190709-51312-1bmd1r9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The waters of the northern basin run to the Darling River and the waters of the southern basin run to the Murray River.<a class="source" href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/landscape/geography"> </a>
Market reforms <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/snapshot-of-australian-water-markets#australian--water-markets-why-where-who-and-how" target="_blank">in the 1980s and 1990s</a> enabled water trading in many parts of Australia. By far the most active market exists in the southern Murray-Darling basin, which covers the Murray River and its tributaries in northern Victoria, southern New South Wales and eastern South Australia.
The market allows users – mostly irrigation farmers – to trade their water allocations (effectively shares of water in the rivers’ major dams). This trading helps ensure limited water supplies go to the farmers who value them the most, which can be crucial in times of drought.
Historical data shows the main driver of water market prices in the southern basin is <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/Documents/SnapshotOfAustralianWaterMarkets_v1.0.0.pdf" target="_blank">change in water supply</a>.
The following chart shows storage volumes (in orange) and water prices (in red) in the southern basin since 2006. Prices peaked at the height of the Millennium drought in 2007. During the floods of 2011, they fell near zero. Prices have increased again during the latest drought, and are now at their highest levels in a decade.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283617/original/file-20190711-44497-ddror9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Water allocation prices and storage volumes in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. State government trade registers, BOM, Ruralco Water, ABARES estimates.
Lower rainfall, higher temperatures
While water prices have always been higher in dry years and lower in wet, we’ve been getting a lot more dry years in recent decades.
Over the past 20 years, rainfall, run-off and stream flow in the southern basin has been far less than historical conditions.
The below chart shows modelled flow data for the Murray River, assuming historical weather conditions and no water extraction, over the past century. It shows that average water flows this century are about 40% below the average of the 20th century.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283618/original/file-20190711-44497-1uafl1g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Modelled ‘without-development’ annual Murray River flow, 1900 to 2018. Murray-Darling Basin Authority.
We know these reductions are at least partly <a href="http://www.seaci.org/publications/documents/SEACI-2Reports/SEACI_Phase2_SynthesisReport.pdf" target="_blank">related to climate change</a>, driven by both <a href="http://www.mssanz.org.au/modsim09/G5/cowan.pdf" target="_blank">reduced winter rainfall and higher temperatures</a>.
Lower rainfall and higher temperatures also make crops thirstier, increasing demand for irrigation water. This was evident in January, when temperatures <a href="https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/irrigation-demand-lower-murray-river-nearly-parched/news-story/4e1368e376e270c57ac58e09f4bc5c3a" target="_blank">exceeded 35℃ for 14 days</a> and irrigators’ demand for water spiked from about 4.5 gigalitres to 7 gigalitres a day.
The basin plan in perspective
The Murray-Darling Basin Plan seeks to improve the environmental health of the river system by recovering water rights from irrigation farmers. To date, more than <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/water/mdb/progress-recovery/progress-of-water-recovery" target="_blank">1,700 gigalitres </a> of water rights – about 20% of annual water supply – have been recovered in the southern basin.
By reducing supply, water recovery was <a href="/news">always expected</a> to increase water prices. However, the effects of water recovery on supply – while significant – are still small relative to the effects of climate over the same period, as shown in the below chart.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283619/original/file-20190711-44432-12kxnau.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Water allocation use in the southern basin with and without water recovery. State government agencies, Department of Agriculture, ABARES estimates.
Measuring the precise effect of water recovery on prices is difficult. Water buybacks are straightforward and have been modelled by <a href="/news">ABARES</a> and <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/water/markets/supply-side-drivers" target="_blank">others</a>. But the effects of infrastructure programs – where farmers return a portion of their water rights in exchange for funding to upgrade infrastructure – <a href="/news">are harder to estimate</a>.
‘Carryover’ rule changes
Historically farmers had to use water allocations within a 12-month window. The introduction of “<a href="/news">carryover</a>” – most recently in Victoria in 2008 – means users can now hold their unused water in dams. This rule change was a good thing, as it encourages farmers to conserve water and build up a buffer against drought.
But it might also have contributed to anxiety about the water market’s operations.
Since water allocations can be bought and held for multiple years, information about future conditions can have a big effect on prices now. For example, we see large jumps in price following news of worse-than-expected <a href="https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/national/murray-darling-basin-water-prices-surge-to-550-a-megalitre/news-story/89b12d32d2136d11f48cbbf0f9c8ed0c" target="_blank">supply forecasts</a>. This may have helped fuel concern about “speculators”.
Over the longer-term, the ability to store water helps to <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/Documents/SnapshotOfAustralianWaterMarkets_v1.0.0.pdf" target="_blank">“smooth” water prices</a>, with slightly higher prices in most years offset by much lower prices in drought years. Again this is a good thing, but it may have added to the perception of higher prices in the market.
Water demand is rising
When a profitable new irrigation activity is willing to pay more for water – as is the case with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/26/tough-nut-to-crack-the-almond-boom-and-its-drain-on-the-murray-darling" target="_blank">almond farms in the southern basin</a> – competition for limited supplies can potentially drive up prices.
ABARES’ research shows that <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/water/future-scenarios-smdb" target="_blank">between 2003 and 2016</a> there was little change in irrigation demand (aside from that linked to rainfall). Growth in demand from expanding activities such as almonds and cotton was offset by reductions in others including dairy, rice and wine grapes. However, there is evidence since 2016 that demand for water has started to increase, <a href="http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/water/water-market-outlook" target="_blank">contributing to higher water prices</a>. Longer-term projections suggest this trend <a href="https://waterregister.vic.gov.au/images/documents/Water_availability_fact_sheet.pdf" target="_blank">may continue</a>.
With drought and climate change reducing water supply, and demand for both environmental and irrigation water increasing, high water prices are only likely to become more common in the basin in future.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119993/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/neal-hughes-360453" target="_blank">Neal Hughes</a>, Senior Economist, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-bureau-of-agricultural-and-resource-economics-and-sciences-abares-3697" target="_blank">Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-are-driving-high-water-prices-in-the-murray-darling-basin-119993" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Drought and climate change are driving high water prices in the Murray-Darling Basin: Neal Hughes

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There are certainly opportunities in the current 2019 market to pay less than the last price.
But is there really such a thing as buying a bargain when it comes to property? And where are they?
This series of articles looks are specific examples of sale price or asking price falling. 
We take a look at where and if possible why this is happening.  
We came across this property for consideration.
The first resale in Victoria One, the Golden Age on Elizabeth Street, Melbourne has sold for a small loss.
Brand new, with construction completed in 2018, it was sold after just 67 days on the market.
Rita Lin of Melcorp Real Estate marketed the listing.
Situated at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-vic-melbourne-130288586" target="_blank">1409/462 Elizabeth Street</a>, the property traded for $520,000 in late March.
The two bedroom one bathroom apartment holds 55 sqm of internal space.
Located on the 14th floor, the unit boasts full windows which gives west-facing views of the Queen Victoria Market.
Victoria One, the Golden Age offers residents facilities which include a pool, spa, gym &amp; recreation area, garden retreat, poker room, communal lounge, communal kitchen and dining, library and business centre, plus a rooftop cinema on the 76th floor.
Architect Elenberg Fraser designed the 645 unit complex which was developed by the Golden Age Group.
Last sold off-the-plan, the apartment traded for $526,500 in April 2014.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/19/The%20Golden%20Age%202.png" alt="">
<div class="image-wrapper">Property Observer advise that it is up to you to determine if the offering is a truly beneficial bargain.</div>
<div class="image-wrapper">
Remember buying at the bottom of the cycle is fraught – as you can't really precisely pick the bottom nor know just how long until you see some price growth.
Be aware you could be buying a poor quality property in an area with ongoing issues of oversupply of stock.
The oversupply could be also putting downward pressure on rents.
Other price declines could be because the vendor needs a quick sale or paid way over the top on its last purchase chase.
Property Observer suggests property purchasing really does need to be a very well considered proposition with a long term mindset.
As a part of this series, we've already had a look at properties in <a href="/expert-insights/buying/bargain-property-at-mount-eliza-home-at-2-million-discount">Mount Eliza</a>, <a href="/expert-insights/buying/bargain-property-in-central-geelong-sale-price-dips-after-one-year">Central Geelong</a>, <a href="/expert-insights/buying/bargain-property-in-east-perth-near-new-apartment-makes-150-000-loss">East Perth</a> and <a href="/expert-insights/buying/bargain-property-in-sydney-olympic-park-apartment-listed-at-180-000-value-discount">Sydney Olympic Park</a>.
</div>
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Bargain property in the Melbourne CBD? First Victoria One Elizabeth Street resale makes loss

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Veteran banking executive Ross McEwan — who turned around Royal Bank of Scotland in the wake of the global financial crisis — has been appointed new chief executive of the National Australia Bank.
He was most recently CEO of Royal Bank of Scotland, before that he was an executive at CBA.
The announcement comes five months after NAB's former CEO Andrew Thorburn resigned in the wake of the banking royal commission
McEwan won't commence work with NAB until his current obligations at RBS are completed, no later than April 2020.
The former head of retail banking at the Commonwealth Bank is a New Zealand-born banking heavyweight.
National Australia Bank acting chief executive Phil Chronican, who succeeds Dr Ken Henry as chairman in November this year, praised Mr McEwan's long-standing knowledge of Australian banking.
"Ross McEwan is the ideal leader for NAB as we seek to transform our operations and culture firmly around leading customer service, experience and products," Mr Chronican said in a statement to the stock exchange.
"Ross brings a compelling range of experience across finance, insurance and investment with a track record of delivering important and practical improvements for customers.
Mr McEwan had announced his resignation from RBS in April 2019.
The British Government still owns 62 per cent of RBS, although it plans to sell that stake by 2024.
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NAB announce new CEO Ross McEwan

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Off the plan Sugarcube-Honeycomb, Erskineville buyers have been locked out after contaminants fears.
They join other groups of residents also locked out of their Sydney apartments over safety concerns.
The 127 buyers secured apartments and terraces at Erskineville, in Sydney's inner-west through Ray White Project Sales Division and Colliers International
They were built on an old industrial estate contaminated with heavy metals, hydrocarbons and asbestos.
Sydney Council documents show construction approval for the <a href="http://www.sugarcubehoneycomb.com.au" target="_blank">Sugarcube Apartments and Honeycomb Terraces</a> was contingent on strict conditions for cleaning up the land and groundwater, involving accredited auditors.
The council said the buildings cannot be occupied because the developer did not comply with the conditions.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/7/19/Sugarcube-Honeycomb%20Erskineville%202.jpg" alt="">
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A City of Sydney spokesperson said the developer had “not complied with the development consent conditions concerning the remediation of the site”.
</div>
<div class="_1665V undefined">
The city was in “ongoing discussions” seeking a resolution with the developer, Golden Rain Development Pty Ltd.
“We understand this is a most frustrating situation for all terrace and apartment owners,” the City of Sydney spokesperson said.
</div>
The 109 Sugarcane apartments, and 18 Honeycomb terraces were built at the old Ashmore industrial estate.
When nearing completion pricing in Sugarcube was 1 bedroom for $665,000 with 2 bedrooms for $1,020,000 – $1,060,000.
The Sugarcane apartments were designed by DKO and built by Hamilton Marino.
The Metters Street and Coulson Street, Erskineville development was marketed as set to be ready to occupy in April 2018.
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Golden Rain Development has completed 30 projects across Asia with the Erskineville development promoted as its “flagship project” in Sydney.
</div>
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The buyers have taken to the City of Sydney’s social media pages to vent their frustrations about the “never-ending saga”.
Last week it was revealed that 30 loft-style apartments at 19 Gadigal Avenue in Zetland were <a href="/news/garland-lofts-zetland-apartment-block-in-secret-evacuation-last-year-due-to-building-defects">abandoned nine months ago</a> over severe water and fire safety defects.
Cracking also forced the evacuation of <a href="/news/no-definitive-cause-identified-but-opal-tower-is-structurally-sound-but-needs-significant-rectification">Sydney Olympic Park’s Opal Tower</a> on Christmas Eve last year and the <a href="/news/mascot-towers-residents-await-causes-of-cracking">Mascot Towers on Bourke Street, Mascot</a> last month.
</div>
 
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<h3> </h3>
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OTP Sugarcube-Honeycomb, Erskineville buyers locked out after contaminants fears

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GUEST OBSERVATION
“Churning” out of and back in to home ownership is becoming common. We haven’t caught up.
More than in many countries, in Australia home ownership has traditionally been seen as a journey, with most of us aspiring to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616718.2014.984827" target="_blank">own a home</a> and <a href="/news">pay down a mortgage</a> by the time we retire.
Because it’s been seen as a one-way street, we have tended to worry most about the first big transition: moving from renting to getting a mortgage, assuming that afterwards things will be okay. But things are becoming more complicated.
The charts below are built from microdata from the Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/6541.0.30.001Main+Features12013-14" target="_blank">survey of income and housing</a>. Each shows the changing housing profiles of Australians in a particular age group between 1990 and 2015.
The bars show – from left to right – the share of Australians who are renting, have large mortgage debt, moderate mortgage debt, low mortgage debt; and have become outright owners, both in 1990 and 2015.
Then and now. Home tenure by type, per cent
25 - 34 year olds:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283975/original/file-20190714-173360-7fwyjs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
35 - 54 year olds:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283974/original/file-20190714-173360-rfaur1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
55 - 64 year olds:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/283976/original/file-20190714-173355-12ynhbo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
High debt = mortgage debt-to-income ratio above 200%, middle debt = 100-200%, low debt = below 100%. <a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6553.0" target="_blank">Author's calculations, ABS 6553.0 microdata</a>
Less ownership, more churning
In each age group there is more renting and less ownership than there used to be.
And among owners, there is much less outright ownership and much more high debt than there used to be, exposing more of them to the risk of losing their homes.
Indeed, data from the <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda" target="_blank">Household, Income and Labour Dynamics</a> survey shows that in the first decade of this century alone, nearly 2 million people left home ownership and returned to renting.
These “leavers” represent one fifth of all home owners in the decade.
But this wasn’t a one-way street either. Of those who lost their home, nearly two-thirds regained home ownership later in the decade. Astonishingly, 7% of these “churners” moved in and out of home ownership <a href="/news">more than once</a>.
Who’s leaving, who’s churning?
The edges of home ownership are becoming permeable, in an especially Australian way. Leavers and churners are more common in Australia <a href="/news">than in Britain</a>, a country which on the surface has a similar high home ownership rate and a well-developed mortgage market.
Leavers appear to be characterised by <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14616718.2015.1115225" target="_blank">mortgage stress, divorce or relationship breakdown and poor health</a>. They have better chances to regaining ownership if they were able to extract relatively large amounts of <a href="/news">home equity</a> before they leave.
Those who are able to find <a href="/news">rent-free housing</a>, say from parents, find it easier to save for a deposit to get them back into home ownership.
Some are able to directly access the “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19491247.2017.1278580?journalCode=reuj20" target="_blank">bank of mum and dad</a>”. It is a leg up only available to those with <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-everyone-wins-from-the-bank-of-mum-and-dad-73842" target="_blank">wealthy and willing parents</a>, accentuating the socio-economic divide between owners and renters.
What will have to change?
There are at least three important implications.
First, debt-free home ownership in old age can no longer be regarded as the norm; instead, <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-people-are-retiring-with-high-mortgage-debts-the-implications-are-huge-115134" target="_blank">mortgage stress in old age</a> will become more common as churners take on more debt later in order to regain home ownership.
This raises complex questions around how ageing mortgage holders will manage retirement strategies, superannuation payouts and spending to cope with <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/research-in-progress/ahuri-research-projects/mortgage-stress-and-precarious-homeownership-implications-for-older-australians" target="_blank">mortgages that aren’t extinguished</a>.
Second, <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/HousingAustraliaFinal_Flipsnack.pdf" target="_blank">lifelong renting</a> will become more common. This means governments will need to prepare for an upsurge in spending on <a href="/news">housing assistance</a> and pressure for legislation to provide greater <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/HousingAustraliaFinal_Flipsnack.pdf" target="_blank">security of tenure</a> for private renters.
Evidence suggests mortgage indebtedness <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X16688471" target="_blank">depresses wellbeing</a>. On the other hand, people who have abandoned their mortgage experience a notable rebound in wellbeing, especially if they get <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0308518X16688471" target="_blank">secure rental tenure</a>.
Finally, governments cannot just focus on programs that help first home buyers, such as the <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2019/05/12/helping-australians-buy-their-first-home" target="_blank">First Home Loan Deposit Scheme</a> announced during the election. They will need to design programs that help prevent people from dropping out and help former owners get back.
The growing twilight zone between being an owner and being being a renter is largely unrecognised in the political imagination.
Rachel Ong ViforJ, Professor of Economics, School of Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin University.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-edges-of-home-ownership-are-becoming-porous-its-no-longer-a-one-way-street-119995" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Home ownership churn becoming increasingly common: Rachel Ong ViforJ

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Bonnie Doon, Gold Coast’s last family-owned dairy farm in Numinbah Valley, has been listed after more than 110 years in the Yaun family.
They have reluctantly decided to sell their five generation farm as they no longer make a living off the land following the deregulation of the dairy industry in 2000.
It was in 2007 when they ceased dairy farming.
It has Lamington National Park on one side and Springbrook National Park on the other.
It has been listed by Ray White Rural Queensland agent Rob Wildermuth, who is marketing the property with Peter Douglas.
Situated at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-livestock-qld-numinbah+valley-700039442" target="_blank">2325 Nerang Murwillumbah Road</a>, the majority of the property is cleared improved pastures of Kikuyu, Rhodes and clovers. 
At the western edge the 172 hectare holding, the property has around 40 hectares of rainforest.
Located a short drive and school bus to the Gold Coast Private and Public schools at the gate.
Numinbah also has a primary school which is within walking distance.
Instead of dairy cows, Angus and Charolais cows now feed on the improved pastures. 
The home is set to go under the auctioneer's hammer August 2.
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Former dairy farm in Numinbah Valley listed after 110 years 

Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.14%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=dYAVIL7qdcGA8ojvkslSrLjczXFejSSx" />

Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

<img alt="Sammut makes Brisbane apartment play" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-23%20at%203.27.26%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ohkRkY0dIZlqdfME2EZePsCQavRiBadE" />

Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

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One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

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