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EXPERT OBSERVERS
The litany of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-a-new-national-construction-code-but-its-still-not-good-enough-113729" target="_blank">defects, poor building standards</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ministers-fiddle-while-buildings-crack-and-burn-120592" target="_blank">regulatory failures</a> has serious implications for apartment owners, occupiers and buyers alike. Fears of a <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/the-apartment-building-crisis-explained-20190716-p527k0" target="_blank">loss of confidence in the sector</a> have unfortunately come true. Our research suggests a lack of reliable information about building defects is a critical factor in the crisis.
About a year ago, we started a research project with <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/536/defects_project_overview.pdf" target="_blank">six industry partners</a> in New South Wales entitled <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/defects-strata/" target="_blank">Cracks in the Compact City: Tackling Defects in Multi-Unit Strata Housing</a>. The context is compact city planning policies and a rapid shift towards apartment living in Australian cities.
The urban development strategies of NSW and other states rely on higher-density cities with many more multi-unit strata title dwellings. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-the-building-cracks-or-cladding-sometimes-uncertainty-does-even-more-harm-120662" target="_blank">human</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/flammable-cladding-costs-could-approach-billions-for-building-owners-if-authorities-dither-118121" target="_blank">economic</a> impacts of the building defects crisis could undermine these strategies.
Even with our resources, obtaining data on the extent and nature of defects in NSW apartment buildings has been a challenge. Individual buyers and owners must face even greater obstacles.
This lack of access to information poses a clear challenge to the principle of “buyer beware” that underpins property sales. The imbalance it creates between buyers and sellers is a prime example of what economists call “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_asymmetry" target="_blank">information asymmetry</a>”.
<h2>Why does this matter for the whole apartment market?</h2>
Nobel laureate George Akerlof <a href="https://www2.bc.edu/thomas-chemmanur/phdfincorp/MF891%20papers/Ackerlof%201970.pdf" target="_blank">explained</a> how the price and quality of goods traded in a market affected by information asymmetries tend to gradually reduce to the point where only lowest-cost “lemons” remain. When buyers can’t tell the difference between products of good and bad quality, they typically prefer the cheapest available. This forces higher-quality products out of the market.
Sellers can also exploit this situation to hide poor-quality products from consumers. They might even charge the same as competitors selling higher-quality products.
While some unscrupulous sellers might profit in the short term, overall profits fall for everyone as confidence and links between price and quality are undermined. Ultimately, the entire market can collapse.
The risks are highest in markets with these two features:
<ul>
<li>sellers are not rewarded for delivering information to buyers or cannot disclose it effectively</li>
<li>buyers cannot discriminate between the quality of different products, as is often the case in apartment developments.</li>
</ul>
These problems are more likely when buyers cannot easily inspect products at the time of sale – as with apartment units bought off the plan.
When a vendor sells a product to multiple buyers, again typical in apartment developments, that can multiply the impact of information asymmetries.
The buyer of a standalone house might be able to make the sale conditional on an independent inspection of the entire building. But such clauses are very difficult to negotiate in off-the-plan sales for apartments in multi-unit buildings.
It would also be too costly for each buyer to commission such an inspection. Buyers are unable to organise a joint inspection of the building until after they have settled, which greatly increases their risk. While NSW’s new <a href="https://www.fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/housing-and-property/strata-building-bond-and-inspections-scheme" target="_blank">defects bond scheme</a> does require an inspection, it happens after ownership is transferred.
The negative impacts for buyers have spill-over effects as information asymmetries mean risks are perceived to increase across the entire apartment housing sector. <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/residential/the-opal-tower-effect-sydney-high-rise-site-sales-crash-50-per-cent-20191024-p533t4" target="_blank">Negative publicity</a>, such as the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/stalemate-leaving-fireprone-ticking-time-bombs-around-australia/news-story/7b26701bd6a690238a98e590c7d9a76a" target="_blank">flammable cladding</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-ve-had-ceilings-collapse-sydney-s-30-million-in-defect-payouts-revealed-20190705-p524kq" target="_blank">defects</a> scandals, can cause values to fall market-wide, regardless of the quality of individual developments. At the same time, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/berejiklian-calls-for-national-solution-amid-building-crisis-20190715-p527gj" target="_blank">finance and insurance costs increase</a>.
The issue persists for subsequent buyers too. Information about defects is often unavailable due to <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/residential/a-bigger-problem-than-building-defects-20190724-p52a6g" target="_blank">poor record-keeping</a> or <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/424/Case_Study_Poster_-_Defects_3.pdf" target="_blank">confidentiality agreements</a>. Ironically, this adds to the information asymmetries that contributed to the problem in the first place.
<h2>What can we do about the problem?</h2>
To reduce information asymmetries, sellers and buyers tend to engage in two main types of behaviour: <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Job-Market-Signaling-Spence/c63c6222735629d0e232d5b2532152bf3b0880a8" target="_blank">signalling and screening</a>.
Signalling involves sellers flagging the higher quality of their products to buyers indirectly. For example, a reputable developer may use warranties and brands or quality marks, certificates and awards as a sign of their high-quality work. Buyers may well be prepared to pay more for higher-quality products that won’t cost more in the longer term.
Crucially, signalling only works if the signal is credible. At present, there are no construction-specific quality certifications and warranties, only <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.iso.org/standard/62085" target="_blank">generic standards such as the international ISO 9001: 2015</a>. And the administrative burden and costs of independent third-party certification make it unviable for many small companies. So instruments like ISO 9001 are likely of very limited value for effective signalling in the apartment sector.
The NSW Building Commissioner is supporting an industry rating system that will enable better signalling. Data mining will be used to identify risky players and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/phoenixing-in-crosshairs-amid-crackdown-on-dodgy-building-operators-20191028-p5351a" target="_blank">phoenix operators</a>. It should take effect in the apartment sector by 2021.
Screening involves buyers investing time and resources to uncover the likelihood of defects. This includes examining available records and the behaviours of sellers and their representatives. But this adds to buyers’ costs, which disadvantages them in the marketplace.
Stakeholders in the building development process should be compelled to release this information. NSW’s <a href="https://www.registrargeneral.nsw.gov.au/news/new-requirements-for-off-the-plan-contracts-from-1-december-2019" target="_blank">new law</a> on off-the-plan contract sales will increase sellers’ disclosure obligations and provide stronger protections for buyers. Importantly, sellers will have to identify material changes made during the development process at least 21 days before settlement.
A similar requirement involving an independent expert building inspection would help buyers better understand the risk of defects before they finalise their purchase.
Another positive move is the requirement in the new <a href="https://www.fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/consultation-tool/design-and-building-practitioners-bill-2019" target="_blank">Design and Building Practitioners Bill</a> for declared designs and as-built drawings to be lodged with the government. The Building Commissioner has said these will be made available on an easy-to-access platform.
This would enable buyers to check information as the development progresses, before the crucial building handover. It’s a step towards creating a “<a href="https://www.thefifthestate.com.au/columns/spinifex/new-nsw-building-legislation/" target="_blank">digital twin</a>” for everyone licensed to perform construction work, making it easier for the public to check their record.
While the devil is likely to be in the detail, the NSW government is on the right track in tackling the information asymmetry problem. However, the various information gatekeepers will still have to be persuaded – or required – to release information they have long withheld in their own interests.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127007/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-loosemore-4690" target="_blank">Martin Loosemore</a>, Professor of Construction Management, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936" target="_blank">University of Technology Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-randolph-147968" target="_blank">Bill Randolph</a>, Director, City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of the Built Environment, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/caitlin-buckle-399322" target="_blank">Caitlin Buckle</a>, PhD Candidate in Human Geography, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hazel-easthope-175163" target="_blank">Hazel Easthope</a>, Associate Professor, City Futures Research Centre, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/laura-crommelin-15376" target="_blank">Laura Crommelin</a>, Research Lecturer, City Futures Research Centre, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/lack-of-information-on-apartment-defects-leaves-whole-market-on-shaky-footings-127007" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Lack of information on apartment defects leaves whole market on shaky footings

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Coles has sold their neighbourhood shopping centre, Coles Amaroo Village in Canberra.
Located in the northern suburbs of Canberra, the property was sold for $29.5 million on a net yield of 6.25 per cent (fully leased).
80% of the gross floor area in the centre is secured to Coles and Liquorland on a brand-new long-term lease. 
There are also eight specialty shops including a pharmacy, real estate agency, barber, Indian Grocer and various food offerings. 
The 4,594 sqm GLA centre was sold by Steven Lerche and Nic Purdue of Savills Australia and Philip Gartland of Stonebridge.
Savills Australia National Director of Retail Investments, Steven Lerche said “Amaroo Village is an outstanding convenience and non-discretionary retail hub, ideally located within the town centre. Collectively, we received over 230 enquiries and multiple bids, with the successful buyer being interstate." 
“The yield of 6.25% is consistent with other similar strata transactions around the country, confirming that the market for well leased convenience based retail property remains firmly on the investor radar” he said.   
“With interest rates continuing to drop, commercial property investment in Australia will remain attractive to both local and off shore capital. Investor demand will remain strong and property prices will hold firm” he said.
Savills Australia will be managing the shopping centre.
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Coles sells Amaroo Village Shopping in ACT for $29.5 million

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GUEST OBSERVATION
What do a billionaire, a former vice president, and a US democratic socialist have to do with Australia’s nearly three-decade run of economic growth?
More than you might think.
The race for the Democratic Party’s 2020 Presidential nomination is far from over – in fact voting in the first state (Iowa) doesn’t even begin until January. But Senator Elizabeth Warren has become the front-runner in betting markets and national polls, pulling ahead of former vice president Joe Biden.
Warren is running on a “democratic socialist” platform of banning private health insurance, imposing a wealth tax and more rigorously examining proposed trade agreements. Biden is much more centrist – he was Barack Obama’s vice president after all – but he is struggling to maintain the lead he once held.
This has a number of people freaked out. Among them is former New York mayor (and former Republican) Mike Bloomberg, who has filed paperwork to get himself into the Democratic primary race.
Bloomberg is a pro-market, socially liberal, three-term mayor of New York. He amassed a US$50 billion fortune by creating the category-killing <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/company/stories/understanding-bloomberg-and-the-terminal/" target="_blank">Bloomberg terminal</a> for financial data and securities trading.
He has taken progressive stands on gun control, gay rights and women’s reproductive rights.
And on climate change he spent half a billion dollars on climate mitigation projects as well as campaigning with the environment group <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/" target="_blank">Sierra Club</a> (successfully) for coal mines to be closed.
Bloomberg’s path to the Democratic nomination is far from assured, but in Australia someone like him would be in the mould of prime ministers past.
And that tells us something important about our internationally unusual long run of economic growth.
Straight down the middle
Since Bill Hayden became Labor (and opposition) leader in 1977 and put to rest the economic upheaval of the Whitlam era, Australia’s two major political parties have maintained, for the most part, staunchly centrist economic policies. They’ve combined the virtues of markets with a strong social safety set.
The <a href="https://theconversation.com/hawke-was-our-larrikin-but-also-our-reformer-117308" target="_blank">Hawke-Keating government famously opened up the Australian economy</a> to the world: floating the Australian dollar, deregulating the banking system, slashing tariffs, and privatising sleepy state-owned enterprises.
John Howard not only continued this legacy but introduced the Goods and Services Tax – a much more efficient form of taxation than had existed – and successfully negotiated the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/ausfta/Pages/australia-united-states-fta.aspx" target="_blank">Australia-US Free Trade Agreement</a>.
And though the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government may have lacked stability, it did not lack major economic achievements.
Rudd and then Treasury boss Ken Henry <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/did-labor-really-save-us-from-the-gfc-we-ask-an-expert.pdf" target="_blank">acted decisively with stimulus and bank guarantees</a> to avoid the economic disaster that hit most of the rest of the world.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Total annual greenhouse gas emissions excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry. <a class="source" href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jan/09/australias-emissions-are-rising-its-time-for-this-government-to-quick-pretending" target="_blank">Greg Jericho, Guardian</a>
Gillard introduced a carbon tax that had an almost immediate effect in reducing Australia’s emissions.
While the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government’s stance on climate change has been rightly criticised (often by yours truly), it has continued to enact free trade agreements, the most recent of which, the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/negotiations/rcep/Pages/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.aspx" target="_blank">Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership</a>, might be <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-trumps-tariffs-legal-under-the-wto-it-seems-not-and-they-are-overturning-70-years-of-global-leadership-121425" target="_blank">truly transformational</a>.
Sometimes veering to the sides
Although that centrism has served Australia well socially and economically, there have been moments where policy looked like it would veer away from the centre.
Labor opposed the goods and services tax. The current government has flirted with government guarantees for new coal-fired power plants, which was a policy more in the spirit of Marx and Lenin than Howard and Costello.
Holding the centre
The current depressing state of the Australian economy (pun intended) might provide the biggest test yet to centrist economic policy.
Wage growth is sluggish (Wednesday’s figures showed annual growth slipping from a historically low <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inextricably-linked-wage-growth-flatlines-as-report-shows-jobless-rate-hurting-economy-20191113-p53a94" target="_blank">2.3% to 2.2%</a>) and unemployment is climbing (Thursday’s figures showed the unemployment rate climbing from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features1Oct%202019?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=6202.0&amp;issue=Oct%202019&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">5.2% to 5.3%</a>).
There’s pressure from both the left and the right to “do something”.
Cutting immigration, moving away from free trade, propping up failing industries, or offering selective wage rises to particular sectors (such as childcare workers) are among the “somethings” that have been on the table or partially implemented.
The Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello governments sustained centrist economic policy for more than two decades.
They did it not only through a series of sound policy choices, but also through a narrative about the virtues of markets coupled with a social safety net.
It’s a narrative under threat. In Australia it hasn’t been drowned out yet.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126918/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-might-straight-down-the-middle-be-the-source-of-our-economic-success-126918" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Might straight down the middle be the source of our economic success?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Around the world, the vast majority of people are flocking to cities not to dwell in their centres but to live in the new suburbs expanding their outer limits.
Reflecting this, from 2000 to 2015, the <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2017/goal-11/" target="_blank">expansion of urbanised land worldwide outpaced urban population growth</a>. The result is <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2017/" target="_blank">unprecedented urban sprawl</a>.
Expansive suburbs of single-family, freestanding housing are ubiquitous in countries such as Australia, the US and the UK. Most Australians still <a href="https://theconversation.com/becoming-more-urban-attitudes-to-medium-density-living-are-changing-in-sydney-and-melbourne-84693" target="_blank">aspire to own a large detached house</a> in the suburbs.
Public resistance to so-called infill development is unlikely to be overcome without a major change in how cities approach urban densification. We <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030296001" target="_blank">advocate greenspace-oriented development</a>, or GOD, which provides substantial, public green spaces to serve surrounding higher-density neighbourhoods.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299805/original/file-20191101-187907-jwuiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299805/original/file-20191101-187907-jwuiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Greenspace-oriented development correlates urban densification with significant, upgraded public green spaces. Author provided
We love our leafy suburbs
The “Australian dream” of owning your own home is often automatically associated with a detached house on a block of land. It’s seen as a mark of having “made it”.
For instance, a <a href="http://www.dhw.wa.gov.au/News/Pages/hwc.aspx" target="_blank">study in Perth</a> found that, if they had the money, 79% of people would prefer a separate dwelling and 13% a semi-detached option. Only 7% preferred flats, units or apartments.
Evidently, the suburban dream runs deep in the Australian cultural psyche. Australia is not alone in this. As a result of widespread preference for suburban living, globally we are not in the age of urbanisation but rather the age of suburbanisation.
Despite the enduring popularity of suburban life, several emerging crises threaten its dominance. These include the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-protect-fresh-food-supplies-here-are-the-key-steps-to-secure-city-foodbowls-114085" target="_blank">destruction of agriculturally productive</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/squandering-riches-can-perth-realise-the-value-of-its-biodiversity-63933" target="_blank">biodiverse land</a> around expanding cities, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598" target="_blank">ballooning commuting times</a> and service and public transport <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/08/australian-infrastructure-expensive/" target="_blank">infrastructure costs</a>, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/private-renters-are-doing-it-tough-in-outer-suburbs-of-sydney-and-melbourne-120427" target="_blank">concentration of socio-economic vulnerabilities</a> in outer suburbs. These areas also <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-liveable-this-is-what-residents-have-to-say-about-life-on-the-urban-fringe-111339" target="_blank">have poorer access</a> to jobs.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299804/original/file-20191101-187938-1d9yuix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The problems of sprawl: contractors clear once biodiverse land on the edge of Perth for a new suburb. Author provided. Photo courtesy of Donna Broun, Richard Weller
Why infill efforts are failing
To limit urban sprawl, the emphasis in most cities worldwide is on increasing urban density. In pursuit of infill development, planning strategies have focused mostly on <a href="http://www.tod.org/" target="_blank">transit-oriented development</a>. This approach focuses on higher-density development around public transport nodes and corridors.
Despite the widespread adoption of this ideology in Australia, many cities are <a href="https://dusp.mit.edu/publication/infinite-suburbia" target="_blank">not achieving</a> their <a href="https://uwap.uwa.edu.au/products/made-in-australia-the-future-of-australian-cities" target="_blank">infill targets</a>. In part, this is because transit-oriented development strategies suggest an “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1745-5871.2006.00374.x" target="_blank">inflexible, over-neat vision</a>” of cities at odds with their “increasing geographical complexity”.
Much of the infill that has been achieved is through indiscriminate and opportunistic subdivision of individual suburban lots by “mum and dad” investors. This “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2016.1245201" target="_blank">background infill</a>” fails to achieve infill targets, does not reduce car use, erodes urban forests, and aggravates local communities. This has led to community resistance (the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Not-in-My-Backyard-Phenomenon" target="_blank">NIMBY</a> factor) and what one council official referred to as a “<a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/city-limits-why-australias-cities-are-broken-and-how-we-can-fix-them/" target="_blank">public sullenness</a>”.
Higher density with a green focus
The principles of transit-oriented development are well established and valid. However, we <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030296001" target="_blank">contend</a> that we need a complementary strategy, greenspace-oriented development, for achieving infill development. This approach would correlate urban densification with substantial, upgraded public green spaces or parks that are relatively well served by public transport.
Greenspace-oriented development builds upon the now well-recognised <a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-cities-need-greening-to-stay-healthy-and-liveable-75840" target="_blank">array of benefits</a> of green spaces for urban dwellers. Most importantly, it underpins approaches to making our cities more sustainable and liveable.
Australian suburbs do generally contain a reasonable number of parks. But these are typically underdesigned and underused. Many parks offer minimal amenity, often little more than large stretches of irrigated lawn and a scattering of trees.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299807/original/file-20191101-102207-1w2nlod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299807/original/file-20191101-102207-1w2nlod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Before and after: in greenspace-oriented development, density and natural amenity are interwoven. Images courtesy of Robert Cameron. Author provided
We suggest redesigning parks to increase the naturalness, ecological function and diversity of active and passive recreational uses, which in turn can support higher-density urban areas. Indeed, it should increase the value of neighbouring real estate. With rezoning, this should enable greater local densification that is both commercially viable for developers and more attractive for residents.
Residents would then have an incentive to support well-designed infill development. When completed, each of these upgraded parks operates as a multifunctional, communal “backyard” for residents of a surrounding higher-density urban precinct.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299806/original/file-20191101-102182-1ncjsyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299806/original/file-20191101-102182-1ncjsyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Before and after: parks become multifunctional communal ‘backyards’ for people living at a higher density around the park. Author provided
The lure of suburbia clearly remains strong for people around the world. If planners are to deal with the problems of sprawl, they need to increase urban density in a way that resonates with the leafy green qualities of suburbia that most people desire (at very least in Australia).
Transit-oriented development ideology relies on a false presumption that residents will trade the benefits of nature for the benefits of urbanity. We require a new vision of urban densification that responds to the urban, societal and ecological challenges of the 21st century and aligns with people’s preference for suburban living near nature.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126204/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Julian Bolleter, Deputy Director, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, University of Western Australia.
Cristina E. Ramalho, Research fellow, University of Western Australia.<a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-western-australia-1067" target="_blank"></a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/god-save-us-greenspace-oriented-development-could-make-higher-density-attractive-126204" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Greenspace-oriented development could make higher density attractive

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (attributed to Danish physicist Niels Bohr)
The difficulty of making predictions has long been known, but the rise of the internet means that it is getting harder to hide the gaps between predictions and reality.
Perhaps the most significant example of repeated failed projections has been the International Energy Agency’s projections of the importance of renewable power – the proportion of electricity generated by solar and wind and other renewable sources other than hydro.
Beginning in 1994, when generation from these sources was negligible, the Agency has produced estimates of the future share of renewables every two years.
Every two years, with striking regularity, the previous estimates have been exceeded (hugely) and the new set has been revised upwards. But never by enough. Each time the upward revision has been inadequate.
This graph, prepared by <a href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood</a> from IEA reports, illustrates the point:
Projections versus reality
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302056/original/file-20191117-66945-19v9ijz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302056/original/file-20191117-66945-19v9ijz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Reality versus repeated projections of renewables share of electricity generation (ex hydro). <a class="source" href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood, Quora</a>
The dashed lines represent successive projections from 1994 to 2016.
The solid red line represents the actual growth of non-hydro renewables as a share of total electricity generation.
What can be seen is that eleven times in a row the projected growth in renewables was far too low and had to be upgraded. Eleven times in a row the upgrades weren’t big enough.
As a joke (indicated by the green line) Mainwood “corrected” the 2016 projection for the typical under-projection:
Projections plus “corrected” 2016 projection
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302067/original/file-20191117-66953-1tfh6u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302067/original/file-20191117-66953-1tfh6u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Reality versus projections of renewables share of electricity generation (ex hydro) plus 2016 projection corrected for typical undershoot. <a class="source" href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood</a>
Projections often understate change
Another striking example relates to religious belief. In 2015 the Pew Research Institute released a <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/" target="_blank">report</a> suggesting a gradual decline in Christianity in the United States.
The headline finding for the US:
"Christians will decline from more than three-quarters (75%) of the population in 2010 to two-thirds (66%) in 2050."
Yet only four years later in 2019, Pew released another report with this headline finding about the US:
'In 2018 and 2019, 65% of American adults describe themselves as Christians when asked about their religion, down 12 percentage points over the past decade."
Thus, a decline expected to take forty years had taken place inside ten.
Moreover, Christian affiliation is highest in the older age cohorts, very few members of which will be around in 2050. Looking at the younger cohort born after 1981, only 49% claim a Christian affiliation, a proportion that has declined by 16 percentage points in a decade. Unless that trend is rapidly reversed, or later cohorts experience a religious revival, Christians will be a minority well before 2050.
They enable modellers to escape responsiblity
Faced with outcomes of this kind, modellers often defend themselves by drawing a distinction between “predictions” and “projections”.
A prediction (Latin for “foretelling”) is a claim about what is most likely to happen in the future. By contrast, a projection (“casting forward”) is a model output derived by extrapolating past trends, holding some parameters constant and allowing others to vary.
The International Energy Agency projections were characterised by the assumption that the costs of renewable energy would change only slowly, rather than continuing the extraordinary decline that began in the 1970s.
In the case of the Pew projections, the crucial parameter is conversion rates – the frequency with which people brought up with one religion (including “no religion”) change to another. The Pew projections were based on the assumption conversion rates will remain unchanged.
It is the opposite of the widely-held but controversial “secularisation hypothesis” which states that modernisation leads to increased conversions to “no religion”.
Predictions force them to take responsibility
Projections are useful in the development of models. All models are based on past experience and have to assume that in some respects the future will be like the past. By examining the projections generated under particular assumptions about which variables and parameters will remain constant, it is possible to understand how models works and make modelling choices.
But projections of this kind are of no use in informing people not familiar with the material. They mislead casual readers of the Australia’s budget.
The budget uses both predictions and projections.
For the two years following each budget the Commonwealth uses “forecasts” which it is prepared to stand by, then for the next two it presents mechanical “projections”:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302072/original/file-20191117-66957-w8vxaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<a class="source" href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/bp1/index.htm" target="_blank">2019-20 Commonwealth budget, Budget Paper 1</a>
When asked to defend (for example) its wage growth number of 3½%, the treasury points out that it is a mechanical projection rather than a forecast, a distinction lost on all but the most enthusiastic of budget devotees.
In practice it is impossible to separate the two.
Even though both the International Energy Association and Pew describe their estimates as “projections” they are almost invariably <a href="https://www.mining.com/new-iea-report-predicts-surge-in-global-coal-use-2/" target="_blank">treated as</a> <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/future-religion-around-world-one-chart" target="_blank">predictions</a>. 
Since any statement about the future will be treated as a prediction, the only serious option for modellers prepared to be truthful with the public is to bite the bullet and make predictions.
It means working hard to make the best possible estimate of the future paths of all model parameters, and using judgement to take account of everything else.
It’s what those of us looking to experts for guidance deserve.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126734/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/please-no-more-projections-what-we-need-are-predictions-and-theyre-harder-126734" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Please, no more projections. What we need are predictions, and they’re harder

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Concrete is the most widely used man-made material, commonly used in buildings, roads, bridges and industrial plants. But producing the Portland cement needed to make concrete accounts for 5-8% of all global greenhouse emissions.
There is a more environmentally friendly cement known as MOC (magnesium oxychloride cement), but its poor water resistance has limited its use – until now. We have developed a water-resistant MOC, a “green” cement that could go a long way to cutting the construction industry’s emissions and <a href="https://gccassociation.org/sustainability-innovation/" target="_blank">making it more sustainable</a>.
Producing a tonne of conventional cement in Australia emits about <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267233444_SCM's_potential_to_lower_Australia's_greenhouse_gas_emissions_profile" target="_blank">0.82 tonnes of carbon dioxide</a> (CO₂). Because most of the CO₂ is released as a result of the chemical reaction that produces cement, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-cement-emissions-matter-for-climate-change" target="_blank">emissions aren’t easily reduced</a>. In contrast, MOC is a different form of cement that is carbon-neutral.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301205/original/file-20191112-178520-1o0tfjn.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301205/original/file-20191112-178520-1o0tfjn.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Global CO₂ emissions from rising cement production over the past century (with 95% confidence interval). <a href="https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/195/2018/" target="_blank">Source: Global CO2 emissions from cement production, Andrew R. (2018)</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
What exactly is MOC?
MOC is produced by mixing two main ingredients, magnesium oxide (MgO) powder and a concentrated solution of magnesium chloride (MgCl₂). These are byproducts from magnesium mining.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301216/original/file-20191112-178498-1i9iftz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301216/original/file-20191112-178498-1i9iftz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Magnesium oxide (MgO) powder (left) and a solution of magnesium chloride (MgCl₂) are mixed to produce magnesium oxychloride cement (MOC). Author provided
Many countries, including China and Australia, have plenty of magnesite resources, as well as seawater, from which both MgO and MgCl₂ could be obtained.
Furthermore, <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.chemrev.5b00463" target="_blank">MgO can absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere</a>. This makes MOC a truly green, carbon-neutral cement.
MOC also has many superior material properties compared to conventional cement.
Compressive strength (capacity to resist compression) is the most important material property for cementitious construction materials such as cement. MOC has a much higher compressive strength than conventional cement and this impressive strength can be achieved very fast. The fast setting of MOC and early strength gain are very advantageous for construction.
Although MOC has plenty of merits, it has until now had poor water resistance. Prolonged contact with water or moisture severely degrades its strength. This <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/suco.201800077" target="_blank">critical weakness has restricted its use</a> to indoor applications such as floor tiles, decoration panels, sound and thermal insulation boards.
How was water-resistance developed?
A team of researchers, led by Yixia (Sarah) Zhang, has been working to develop a water-resistant MOC since 2017 (when she was at UNSW Canberra).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301217/original/file-20191112-178494-1jalea4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301217/original/file-20191112-178494-1jalea4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Adding industrial byproducts fly ash (above) and silica fume (below) improves the water resistance of MOC. Author provided
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301393/original/file-20191112-178511-1he0duz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301393/original/file-20191112-178511-1he0duz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
To improve water resistance, the team added industrial byproducts such as fly ash and silica fume to the MOC, as well as chemical additives.
Fly ash is a byproduct from the coal industry – there’s plenty of it in Australia. Adding fly ash significantly improved the water resistance of MOC. Flexural strength (capacity to resist bending) was fully retained after soaking in water for 28 days.
To further retain the compressive strength under water attack, the team added silica fume. Silica fume is a byproduct from producing silicon metal or ferrosilicon alloys. When fly ash and silica fume were combined with MOC paste (15% of each additive), full compressive strength was retained in water for 28 days.
Both the fly ash and silica fume have a similar effect of filling the pore structure in MOC, making the cement denser. The reactions with the MOC matrix form a gel-like phase, which contributes to water repellence. The extremely fine particles, large surface area and high reactive silica (SiO₂) content of silica fume make it an effective binding substance known as a <a href="https://concretecountertopinstitute.com/free-training/the-use-of-pozzolans-in-concrete/" target="_blank">pozzolan</a>. This helps give the concrete high strength and durability.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301218/original/file-20191112-178498-1kb1a8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301218/original/file-20191112-178498-1kb1a8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scanning electron microscope images of MOC showing the needle-like phases of the binding mechanism. Author provided
Although the MOC developed so far had excellent resistance to water at room temperature, it weakened fast when soaked in warm water. The team worked to overcome this by using inorganic and organic chemical additives. Adding phosphoric acid and soluble phosphates greatly improved warm water resistance.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301219/original/file-20191112-178516-1qpuacx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301219/original/file-20191112-178516-1qpuacx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Examples of building products made using MOC. Author provided
Over three years, the team has made a breakthrough in developing MOC as a green cement. The strength of concrete is rated using megapascals (<a href="https://www.hunker.com/12304046/definition-of-concrete-mpa" target="_blank">MPa</a>). The MOC achieved a compressive strength of 110 MPa and flexural strength of 17 MPa. These values are a few times <a href="https://infostore.saiglobal.com/preview/is/en/2011/i.s.en197-1-2011.pdf?sku=1492629" target="_blank">greater than those of conventional cement</a>.
The MOC can fully retain these strengths after being soaked in water for 28 days at room temperatures. Even in hot water (60˚C), the MOC can retain up to 90% of its compressive and flexural strength after 28 days. The values remain as high as 100 MPa and 15 MPa respectively – still much greater than for conventional cement.
Will MOC replace conventional cement?
So could MOC replace conventional cement some day? It seems very promising. More research is needed to demonstrate the practicability of uses of this green and high-performance cement in, for example, concrete.
When concrete is the main structural component, steel reinforcement has to be used. Corrosion of steel in MOC is a critical issue and a big hurdle to jump. The research team has already started to work on this issue.
If this problem can be solved, MOC can be a game-changer for the construction industry.
Yixia (Sarah) Zhang, Associate Professor of Engineering, Western Sydney University. 
Khin Soe, Research Associate, School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, Western Sydney University.
Yingying Guo, PhD Candidate, School of Engineering and Information Technology, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-cement-a-step-closer-to-being-a-game-changer-for-construction-emissions-126033" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Green cement a step closer to being a game-changer for construction emissions

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A two-level penthouse in Kew, Victoria with views across the Yarra Valley to the Northern Ranges has hit the market with $3.9 million to $4.29 million hopes. 
Designed by David Watson Architect, the apartment at 5/33 Stawell Street is one of just five custom-built residences in a boutique setting.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/23/kew%202.jpg" alt="">
The home comprises main bedroom with dress room, two further bedrooms, north-facing living zones, stone kitchen and balcony. 
Other features include double glazed windows, study workstation, ducted heating/cooling, designer lighting, and three basement car spaces plus storage cage.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/23/kew%203.jpg" alt="">
The building comes with a 136 sqm terrace with heated swimming pool.
Located just metres to the tranquil Yarra River, the penthouse is close to Kew Junction restaurants and shops, trams, schools, EastLink freeway, and parklands.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/23/kew%204.jpg" alt="">
Geoff Hall and Daniel Bradd of Kay &amp; Burton Hawthorn have the listing. 
The property had been scheduled for private auction on November 19, but this has been pushed back to December 3. 
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Two level Kew penthouse with valley and mountain views listed 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Aussie consumers remain downbeat. In fact, the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index is down by 4.1 per cent between June 9 and November 17 2019 – the period in which interest rates have been lowered three times to a record low 0.75 per cent. Last week, the release of disappointing job and wage reports served to highlight the sense of unease Aussies are currently feeling about the economy. In fact, consumer views on ‘current’ economic conditions are now at the lowest level since April 23 2017.
While ultra-low interest rates are currently working their way through the economy and showing up primarily in rising capital city home prices, although rising unemployment, tepid pay rises and still-elevated household debt continue to restrain consumer spending intentions.
According to Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and Google trends searches data, measured household spending intentions edged higher in October. The modest upturn signals a potential improvement in consumer spending in the lead up to online retail shopping events - Black Friday and Cyber Monday - later this month, ahead of the all-important Christmas trading period.
The CBA gauge also revealed that consumer spending intentions on entertainment and travel are positive, suggesting that households are still keen to deploy their hard-earned coin on ‘pleasure pursuits’. But gyms and car dealerships remain under pressure as consumers’ rein-in non-essential spending on goods and services.
The rebound in home prices continues. The CoreLogic 5-Capital City Daily Home Value Index is up by 1.2 per cent so far in November, led by gains in Sydney (up 1.8 per cent), Melbourne (up 1.2 per cent) and Brisbane/Gold Coast (up 0.5 per cent). The lift in housing demand, supply constraints and record-low borrowing costs are pushing-up home prices – so it’s no surprise that home buying intentions are near record highs in early 2017, according to CBA Group economists.
What do the figures show? Consumer Sentiment
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.1 per cent to 109.9 points. Sentiment is below both the average of 114.3 points held since 2014 and the longer term average of 113.1 points held since 1990.
Three of the five major components of the index rose last week:
1. The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +10.6 points to +10.9 points;
2. The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +25.6 points to +25.8 points;
3. Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from -7.0 points to -9.4 points;
4. Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +6.0 points to +0.8 points;
5. The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +20.6 points to +21.1 points.
The measure of inflation expectations was down from 4.1 per cent to 3.8 per cent.
The CBA Household Spending Intentions Series (HSI) – October
On home buying intentions: “Home buying intentions rose further in October and are now close to the record highs seen in H1 2017. Current HSI readings are consistent with an ongoing pick up in dwelling prices. And also consistent with a turn in leading indicators of residential construction like building approvals.”
On retail spending intentions: “Retail spending intentions are bouncing around at present but the lift in October means a modest uptrend is in place.”
On travel spending intentions: “Travel spending intentions are turning up, albeit from low levels. The trend in Australian residents holidaying overseas has slowed. The pick-up in the Travel HSI may be an indication that a lower AUD [Aussie dollar] is encouraging domestic holidays instead.”
On health &amp; fitness spending intentions: “Intentions to spend on health &amp; fitness have levelled out. Households are willing to allocate scarce disposable income to driving health &amp; fitness spending with little impact from the vagaries of the economic cycle.”
On education spending intentions: “Education spending intentions are high and rising. Policy makers and economic commentators can all see the need to lift productivity growth.”
On motor vehicle spending intentions: “Motor vehicle purchase intentions remain deep in negative territory. And the tentative signs of a turn up in the past few months have stalled.”
Reserve Bank November 5 Board minutes
Last paragraph – easing bias retained: “The Board concluded that the cash rate should be held steady at this meeting. As part of their deliberations, members also agreed that it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.”
A rate cut was considered by the Board: “The Board agreed that a case could be made to ease monetary policy at this meeting…”
Impact on consumer confidence and savers: “While members judged that lower interest rates were supporting the economy through the usual transmission channels (including a lower exchange rate, higher asset prices and higher cash flows for borrowers), they recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence. They also discussed the possibility that a further reduction in interest rates could have a different effect on confidence than in the past, when interest rates were at higher levels.”
Stimulus is working its way through the economy: “The established housing market was picking up, which would have positive spillovers for the broader economy, although the size of these spillovers was uncertain. Further evidence on spending by households was required before drawing a conclusion on the effects of the tax cuts and low interest rates. Having already delivered a substantial monetary stimulus in recent months, there was a case to wait and assess the effects of this stimulus, especially given the long and variable lags.”
Interest rate pause?: “The most appropriate approach would be to maintain the current stance of monetary policy and to make another full assessment once more evidence of the effects of the earlier monetary easing had become available.”
‘Gentle turning point’ reiterated: “The outlook for the Australian economy was little changed since August. After a soft period in the second half of 2018, GDP growth had picked up a little in the first half of 2019 and it appeared that a gentle turning point had been reached. Looking forward, growth was expected to strengthen gradually to 2¾ per cent over 2020 and around 3 per cent over 2021.”
On the job market: “The unemployment rate had remained steady at around 5¼ per cent and was expected to decline only gradually. Spare capacity was likely to remain in the labour market for some years.”
On inflation: “Inflationary pressures had remained subdued, held down by very low housing-related prices and slow growth in labour costs and administered prices.”
On the global economy: “Global financial markets were signaling a decline in pessimism, which, if sustained could lead to better-than-expected outcomes for the global economy.”
Financial markets pricing of future rate cuts: “Financial market pricing implied that expectations for a further reduction in the cash rate had been scaled back since the previous meeting, with some chance of a 25 basis point reduction around the middle of 2020.”
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
According to the Reserve Bank Board’s minutes – released today - policymakers considered another rate cut at their meeting in early November. The Board, however, opted to ‘sit pat’, instead cautioning that “they recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence.” And in light of its diminishing conventional monetary policy ammunition, Board members also emphasised that, “Having already delivered a substantial monetary stimulus in recent months, there was a case to wait and assess the effects of this stimulus, especially given the long and variable lags.”
That said, the Reserve Bank has retained its policy easing bias. Further evidence of a continuing loss of momentum in the job market could be the catalyst for another rate cut. In fact, Board members concede that “spare capacity is likely to remain in the labour market for some years” with little progress expected to be made boosting Aussies pay packets – two essential ingredients for an improvement in consumer spending and a pick-up in inflation.
CommBank Group economists have pencilled in an interest rate cut in February 2020, but view further fiscal initiatives as being more effective in delivering additional support for the economy.
RYAN FELSMAN is a Senior Economist at CommSec
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Consumer views on the economy hit two and a half year low: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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Former Western Sydney NAB branch manager, Mathew Alwan, has been sentenced to 12 months imprisonment to be served by way of Intensive Corrections Order (ICO) for making false and misleading statements to NAB in relation to 24 home loan applications.
Mr Alwan had previously pleaded guilty to an ‘intention to defraud by false or misleading statement’ charge after he told NAB that an introducer had referred borrowers to make loan applications. In reality, the NAB introducer was Mr Alwan’s uncle, operating under the business name ‘Suit Club’. 
The fraud occurred between October 2013 and September 2015 and resulted in NAB paying Suit Club $56,995 in commissions.
ASIC has taken further action regarding NAB’s Introducer Program, launching civil proceedings in the Federal Court against NAB in August 2019.
As part of the ICO Mr Alwan will undertake 200 hours of community service and ongoing rehabilitation treatment.
ASIC has permanently banned Mr Alwan from providing financial services.
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Former NAB branch manager sentenced for making false and misleading statements

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A Manly home has sold at weekend auction for $3,116,000.
The residence sits at 12 Iluka Avenue which comprises 372 square metres. 
It features two bedrooms, a single bathroom, a carport, office, and a large level lawn.
Manly beach is 450 metres from the listing.
Ray White Freshwater agent Jacquelynn Watson and Andre de Ruyter managed the sale. 
 “The highest offer we had prior to auction was $2,450,000, and the bidding actually started $100,000 above that prior offer, we then went on to receive over 80 more bids before the hammer fell. “We had more than 200 people through the opens - everyone from builders and trades people through to families and downsizers - and it was a local family who were the lucky winning bidders. “This wonderful home combines the classic scale and characteristics of its 1940's origins with superb potential and the beachside location made it a wonderful offering.”
Manly's median house price is $2,825,650.
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Manly home on Iluka Avenue sells for over $3 million

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

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After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

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Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

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The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

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Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

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Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

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ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

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For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

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Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

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Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

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Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

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Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

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Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

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Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

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The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

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The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

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The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

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Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

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Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

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Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

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Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

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Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

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The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

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The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

Staff reporter

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