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EXPERT OBSERVERS
The litany of <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-a-new-national-construction-code-but-its-still-not-good-enough-113729" target="_blank">defects, poor building standards</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ministers-fiddle-while-buildings-crack-and-burn-120592" target="_blank">regulatory failures</a> has serious implications for apartment owners, occupiers and buyers alike. Fears of a <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/the-apartment-building-crisis-explained-20190716-p527k0" target="_blank">loss of confidence in the sector</a> have unfortunately come true. Our research suggests a lack of reliable information about building defects is a critical factor in the crisis.
About a year ago, we started a research project with <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/536/defects_project_overview.pdf" target="_blank">six industry partners</a> in New South Wales entitled <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/research/projects/defects-strata/" target="_blank">Cracks in the Compact City: Tackling Defects in Multi-Unit Strata Housing</a>. The context is compact city planning policies and a rapid shift towards apartment living in Australian cities.
The urban development strategies of NSW and other states rely on higher-density cities with many more multi-unit strata title dwellings. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-just-the-building-cracks-or-cladding-sometimes-uncertainty-does-even-more-harm-120662" target="_blank">human</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/flammable-cladding-costs-could-approach-billions-for-building-owners-if-authorities-dither-118121" target="_blank">economic</a> impacts of the building defects crisis could undermine these strategies.
Even with our resources, obtaining data on the extent and nature of defects in NSW apartment buildings has been a challenge. Individual buyers and owners must face even greater obstacles.
This lack of access to information poses a clear challenge to the principle of “buyer beware” that underpins property sales. The imbalance it creates between buyers and sellers is a prime example of what economists call “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_asymmetry" target="_blank">information asymmetry</a>”.
<h2>Why does this matter for the whole apartment market?</h2>
Nobel laureate George Akerlof <a href="https://www2.bc.edu/thomas-chemmanur/phdfincorp/MF891%20papers/Ackerlof%201970.pdf" target="_blank">explained</a> how the price and quality of goods traded in a market affected by information asymmetries tend to gradually reduce to the point where only lowest-cost “lemons” remain. When buyers can’t tell the difference between products of good and bad quality, they typically prefer the cheapest available. This forces higher-quality products out of the market.
Sellers can also exploit this situation to hide poor-quality products from consumers. They might even charge the same as competitors selling higher-quality products.
While some unscrupulous sellers might profit in the short term, overall profits fall for everyone as confidence and links between price and quality are undermined. Ultimately, the entire market can collapse.
The risks are highest in markets with these two features:
<ul>
<li>sellers are not rewarded for delivering information to buyers or cannot disclose it effectively</li>
<li>buyers cannot discriminate between the quality of different products, as is often the case in apartment developments.</li>
</ul>
These problems are more likely when buyers cannot easily inspect products at the time of sale – as with apartment units bought off the plan.
When a vendor sells a product to multiple buyers, again typical in apartment developments, that can multiply the impact of information asymmetries.
The buyer of a standalone house might be able to make the sale conditional on an independent inspection of the entire building. But such clauses are very difficult to negotiate in off-the-plan sales for apartments in multi-unit buildings.
It would also be too costly for each buyer to commission such an inspection. Buyers are unable to organise a joint inspection of the building until after they have settled, which greatly increases their risk. While NSW’s new <a href="https://www.fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/housing-and-property/strata-building-bond-and-inspections-scheme" target="_blank">defects bond scheme</a> does require an inspection, it happens after ownership is transferred.
The negative impacts for buyers have spill-over effects as information asymmetries mean risks are perceived to increase across the entire apartment housing sector. <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/residential/the-opal-tower-effect-sydney-high-rise-site-sales-crash-50-per-cent-20191024-p533t4" target="_blank">Negative publicity</a>, such as the <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/stalemate-leaving-fireprone-ticking-time-bombs-around-australia/news-story/7b26701bd6a690238a98e590c7d9a76a" target="_blank">flammable cladding</a> and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-ve-had-ceilings-collapse-sydney-s-30-million-in-defect-payouts-revealed-20190705-p524kq" target="_blank">defects</a> scandals, can cause values to fall market-wide, regardless of the quality of individual developments. At the same time, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/berejiklian-calls-for-national-solution-amid-building-crisis-20190715-p527gj" target="_blank">finance and insurance costs increase</a>.
The issue persists for subsequent buyers too. Information about defects is often unavailable due to <a href="https://www.afr.com/property/residential/a-bigger-problem-than-building-defects-20190724-p52a6g" target="_blank">poor record-keeping</a> or <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/documents/424/Case_Study_Poster_-_Defects_3.pdf" target="_blank">confidentiality agreements</a>. Ironically, this adds to the information asymmetries that contributed to the problem in the first place.
<h2>What can we do about the problem?</h2>
To reduce information asymmetries, sellers and buyers tend to engage in two main types of behaviour: <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Job-Market-Signaling-Spence/c63c6222735629d0e232d5b2532152bf3b0880a8" target="_blank">signalling and screening</a>.
Signalling involves sellers flagging the higher quality of their products to buyers indirectly. For example, a reputable developer may use warranties and brands or quality marks, certificates and awards as a sign of their high-quality work. Buyers may well be prepared to pay more for higher-quality products that won’t cost more in the longer term.
Crucially, signalling only works if the signal is credible. At present, there are no construction-specific quality certifications and warranties, only <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.iso.org/standard/62085" target="_blank">generic standards such as the international ISO 9001: 2015</a>. And the administrative burden and costs of independent third-party certification make it unviable for many small companies. So instruments like ISO 9001 are likely of very limited value for effective signalling in the apartment sector.
The NSW Building Commissioner is supporting an industry rating system that will enable better signalling. Data mining will be used to identify risky players and <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/phoenixing-in-crosshairs-amid-crackdown-on-dodgy-building-operators-20191028-p5351a" target="_blank">phoenix operators</a>. It should take effect in the apartment sector by 2021.
Screening involves buyers investing time and resources to uncover the likelihood of defects. This includes examining available records and the behaviours of sellers and their representatives. But this adds to buyers’ costs, which disadvantages them in the marketplace.
Stakeholders in the building development process should be compelled to release this information. NSW’s <a href="https://www.registrargeneral.nsw.gov.au/news/new-requirements-for-off-the-plan-contracts-from-1-december-2019" target="_blank">new law</a> on off-the-plan contract sales will increase sellers’ disclosure obligations and provide stronger protections for buyers. Importantly, sellers will have to identify material changes made during the development process at least 21 days before settlement.
A similar requirement involving an independent expert building inspection would help buyers better understand the risk of defects before they finalise their purchase.
Another positive move is the requirement in the new <a href="https://www.fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/consultation-tool/design-and-building-practitioners-bill-2019" target="_blank">Design and Building Practitioners Bill</a> for declared designs and as-built drawings to be lodged with the government. The Building Commissioner has said these will be made available on an easy-to-access platform.
This would enable buyers to check information as the development progresses, before the crucial building handover. It’s a step towards creating a “<a href="https://www.thefifthestate.com.au/columns/spinifex/new-nsw-building-legislation/" target="_blank">digital twin</a>” for everyone licensed to perform construction work, making it easier for the public to check their record.
While the devil is likely to be in the detail, the NSW government is on the right track in tackling the information asymmetry problem. However, the various information gatekeepers will still have to be persuaded – or required – to release information they have long withheld in their own interests.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127007/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-loosemore-4690" target="_blank">Martin Loosemore</a>, Professor of Construction Management, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936" target="_blank">University of Technology Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bill-randolph-147968" target="_blank">Bill Randolph</a>, Director, City Futures Research Centre, Faculty of the Built Environment, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/caitlin-buckle-399322" target="_blank">Caitlin Buckle</a>, PhD Candidate in Human Geography, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hazel-easthope-175163" target="_blank">Hazel Easthope</a>, Associate Professor, City Futures Research Centre, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/laura-crommelin-15376" target="_blank">Laura Crommelin</a>, Research Lecturer, City Futures Research Centre, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/lack-of-information-on-apartment-defects-leaves-whole-market-on-shaky-footings-127007" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Lack of information on apartment defects leaves whole market on shaky footings

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Coles has sold their neighbourhood shopping centre, Coles Amaroo Village in Canberra.
Located in the northern suburbs of Canberra, the property was sold for $29.5 million on a net yield of 6.25 per cent (fully leased).
80% of the gross floor area in the centre is secured to Coles and Liquorland on a brand-new long-term lease. 
There are also eight specialty shops including a pharmacy, real estate agency, barber, Indian Grocer and various food offerings. 
The 4,594 sqm GLA centre was sold by Steven Lerche and Nic Purdue of Savills Australia and Philip Gartland of Stonebridge.
Savills Australia National Director of Retail Investments, Steven Lerche said “Amaroo Village is an outstanding convenience and non-discretionary retail hub, ideally located within the town centre. Collectively, we received over 230 enquiries and multiple bids, with the successful buyer being interstate." 
“The yield of 6.25% is consistent with other similar strata transactions around the country, confirming that the market for well leased convenience based retail property remains firmly on the investor radar” he said.   
“With interest rates continuing to drop, commercial property investment in Australia will remain attractive to both local and off shore capital. Investor demand will remain strong and property prices will hold firm” he said.
Savills Australia will be managing the shopping centre.
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Coles sells Amaroo Village Shopping in ACT for $29.5 million

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GUEST OBSERVATION
What do a billionaire, a former vice president, and a US democratic socialist have to do with Australia’s nearly three-decade run of economic growth?
More than you might think.
The race for the Democratic Party’s 2020 Presidential nomination is far from over – in fact voting in the first state (Iowa) doesn’t even begin until January. But Senator Elizabeth Warren has become the front-runner in betting markets and national polls, pulling ahead of former vice president Joe Biden.
Warren is running on a “democratic socialist” platform of banning private health insurance, imposing a wealth tax and more rigorously examining proposed trade agreements. Biden is much more centrist – he was Barack Obama’s vice president after all – but he is struggling to maintain the lead he once held.
This has a number of people freaked out. Among them is former New York mayor (and former Republican) Mike Bloomberg, who has filed paperwork to get himself into the Democratic primary race.
Bloomberg is a pro-market, socially liberal, three-term mayor of New York. He amassed a US$50 billion fortune by creating the category-killing <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/company/stories/understanding-bloomberg-and-the-terminal/" target="_blank">Bloomberg terminal</a> for financial data and securities trading.
He has taken progressive stands on gun control, gay rights and women’s reproductive rights.
And on climate change he spent half a billion dollars on climate mitigation projects as well as campaigning with the environment group <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/" target="_blank">Sierra Club</a> (successfully) for coal mines to be closed.
Bloomberg’s path to the Democratic nomination is far from assured, but in Australia someone like him would be in the mould of prime ministers past.
And that tells us something important about our internationally unusual long run of economic growth.
Straight down the middle
Since Bill Hayden became Labor (and opposition) leader in 1977 and put to rest the economic upheaval of the Whitlam era, Australia’s two major political parties have maintained, for the most part, staunchly centrist economic policies. They’ve combined the virtues of markets with a strong social safety set.
The <a href="https://theconversation.com/hawke-was-our-larrikin-but-also-our-reformer-117308" target="_blank">Hawke-Keating government famously opened up the Australian economy</a> to the world: floating the Australian dollar, deregulating the banking system, slashing tariffs, and privatising sleepy state-owned enterprises.
John Howard not only continued this legacy but introduced the Goods and Services Tax – a much more efficient form of taxation than had existed – and successfully negotiated the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/ausfta/Pages/australia-united-states-fta.aspx" target="_blank">Australia-US Free Trade Agreement</a>.
And though the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd government may have lacked stability, it did not lack major economic achievements.
Rudd and then Treasury boss Ken Henry <a href="http://research.economics.unsw.edu.au/richardholden/assets/did-labor-really-save-us-from-the-gfc-we-ask-an-expert.pdf" target="_blank">acted decisively with stimulus and bank guarantees</a> to avoid the economic disaster that hit most of the rest of the world.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301692/original/file-20191114-77315-1hc4e9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Total annual greenhouse gas emissions excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry. <a class="source" href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jan/09/australias-emissions-are-rising-its-time-for-this-government-to-quick-pretending" target="_blank">Greg Jericho, Guardian</a>
Gillard introduced a carbon tax that had an almost immediate effect in reducing Australia’s emissions.
While the Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government’s stance on climate change has been rightly criticised (often by yours truly), it has continued to enact free trade agreements, the most recent of which, the <a href="https://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/negotiations/rcep/Pages/regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.aspx" target="_blank">Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership</a>, might be <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-trumps-tariffs-legal-under-the-wto-it-seems-not-and-they-are-overturning-70-years-of-global-leadership-121425" target="_blank">truly transformational</a>.
Sometimes veering to the sides
Although that centrism has served Australia well socially and economically, there have been moments where policy looked like it would veer away from the centre.
Labor opposed the goods and services tax. The current government has flirted with government guarantees for new coal-fired power plants, which was a policy more in the spirit of Marx and Lenin than Howard and Costello.
Holding the centre
The current depressing state of the Australian economy (pun intended) might provide the biggest test yet to centrist economic policy.
Wage growth is sluggish (Wednesday’s figures showed annual growth slipping from a historically low <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/inextricably-linked-wage-growth-flatlines-as-report-shows-jobless-rate-hurting-economy-20191113-p53a94" target="_blank">2.3% to 2.2%</a>) and unemployment is climbing (Thursday’s figures showed the unemployment rate climbing from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Main%20Features1Oct%202019?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=6202.0&amp;issue=Oct%202019&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">5.2% to 5.3%</a>).
There’s pressure from both the left and the right to “do something”.
Cutting immigration, moving away from free trade, propping up failing industries, or offering selective wage rises to particular sectors (such as childcare workers) are among the “somethings” that have been on the table or partially implemented.
The Hawke-Keating and Howard-Costello governments sustained centrist economic policy for more than two decades.
They did it not only through a series of sound policy choices, but also through a narrative about the virtues of markets coupled with a social safety net.
It’s a narrative under threat. In Australia it hasn’t been drowned out yet.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126918/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-might-straight-down-the-middle-be-the-source-of-our-economic-success-126918" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Might straight down the middle be the source of our economic success?

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Around the world, the vast majority of people are flocking to cities not to dwell in their centres but to live in the new suburbs expanding their outer limits.
Reflecting this, from 2000 to 2015, the <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2017/goal-11/" target="_blank">expansion of urbanised land worldwide outpaced urban population growth</a>. The result is <a href="https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2017/" target="_blank">unprecedented urban sprawl</a>.
Expansive suburbs of single-family, freestanding housing are ubiquitous in countries such as Australia, the US and the UK. Most Australians still <a href="https://theconversation.com/becoming-more-urban-attitudes-to-medium-density-living-are-changing-in-sydney-and-melbourne-84693" target="_blank">aspire to own a large detached house</a> in the suburbs.
Public resistance to so-called infill development is unlikely to be overcome without a major change in how cities approach urban densification. We <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030296001" target="_blank">advocate greenspace-oriented development</a>, or GOD, which provides substantial, public green spaces to serve surrounding higher-density neighbourhoods.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299805/original/file-20191101-187907-jwuiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299805/original/file-20191101-187907-jwuiia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Greenspace-oriented development correlates urban densification with significant, upgraded public green spaces. Author provided
We love our leafy suburbs
The “Australian dream” of owning your own home is often automatically associated with a detached house on a block of land. It’s seen as a mark of having “made it”.
For instance, a <a href="http://www.dhw.wa.gov.au/News/Pages/hwc.aspx" target="_blank">study in Perth</a> found that, if they had the money, 79% of people would prefer a separate dwelling and 13% a semi-detached option. Only 7% preferred flats, units or apartments.
Evidently, the suburban dream runs deep in the Australian cultural psyche. Australia is not alone in this. As a result of widespread preference for suburban living, globally we are not in the age of urbanisation but rather the age of suburbanisation.
Despite the enduring popularity of suburban life, several emerging crises threaten its dominance. These include the <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-protect-fresh-food-supplies-here-are-the-key-steps-to-secure-city-foodbowls-114085" target="_blank">destruction of agriculturally productive</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/squandering-riches-can-perth-realise-the-value-of-its-biodiversity-63933" target="_blank">biodiverse land</a> around expanding cities, <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-city-workers-average-commute-has-blown-out-to-66-minutes-a-day-how-does-yours-compare-120598" target="_blank">ballooning commuting times</a> and service and public transport <a href="https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/08/australian-infrastructure-expensive/" target="_blank">infrastructure costs</a>, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/private-renters-are-doing-it-tough-in-outer-suburbs-of-sydney-and-melbourne-120427" target="_blank">concentration of socio-economic vulnerabilities</a> in outer suburbs. These areas also <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-liveable-this-is-what-residents-have-to-say-about-life-on-the-urban-fringe-111339" target="_blank">have poorer access</a> to jobs.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299804/original/file-20191101-187938-1d9yuix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
The problems of sprawl: contractors clear once biodiverse land on the edge of Perth for a new suburb. Author provided. Photo courtesy of Donna Broun, Richard Weller
Why infill efforts are failing
To limit urban sprawl, the emphasis in most cities worldwide is on increasing urban density. In pursuit of infill development, planning strategies have focused mostly on <a href="http://www.tod.org/" target="_blank">transit-oriented development</a>. This approach focuses on higher-density development around public transport nodes and corridors.
Despite the widespread adoption of this ideology in Australia, many cities are <a href="https://dusp.mit.edu/publication/infinite-suburbia" target="_blank">not achieving</a> their <a href="https://uwap.uwa.edu.au/products/made-in-australia-the-future-of-australian-cities" target="_blank">infill targets</a>. In part, this is because transit-oriented development strategies suggest an “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1745-5871.2006.00374.x" target="_blank">inflexible, over-neat vision</a>” of cities at odds with their “increasing geographical complexity”.
Much of the infill that has been achieved is through indiscriminate and opportunistic subdivision of individual suburban lots by “mum and dad” investors. This “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07293682.2016.1245201" target="_blank">background infill</a>” fails to achieve infill targets, does not reduce car use, erodes urban forests, and aggravates local communities. This has led to community resistance (the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Not-in-My-Backyard-Phenomenon" target="_blank">NIMBY</a> factor) and what one council official referred to as a “<a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/city-limits-why-australias-cities-are-broken-and-how-we-can-fix-them/" target="_blank">public sullenness</a>”.
Higher density with a green focus
The principles of transit-oriented development are well established and valid. However, we <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030296001" target="_blank">contend</a> that we need a complementary strategy, greenspace-oriented development, for achieving infill development. This approach would correlate urban densification with substantial, upgraded public green spaces or parks that are relatively well served by public transport.
Greenspace-oriented development builds upon the now well-recognised <a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-cities-need-greening-to-stay-healthy-and-liveable-75840" target="_blank">array of benefits</a> of green spaces for urban dwellers. Most importantly, it underpins approaches to making our cities more sustainable and liveable.
Australian suburbs do generally contain a reasonable number of parks. But these are typically underdesigned and underused. Many parks offer minimal amenity, often little more than large stretches of irrigated lawn and a scattering of trees.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299807/original/file-20191101-102207-1w2nlod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299807/original/file-20191101-102207-1w2nlod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Before and after: in greenspace-oriented development, density and natural amenity are interwoven. Images courtesy of Robert Cameron. Author provided
We suggest redesigning parks to increase the naturalness, ecological function and diversity of active and passive recreational uses, which in turn can support higher-density urban areas. Indeed, it should increase the value of neighbouring real estate. With rezoning, this should enable greater local densification that is both commercially viable for developers and more attractive for residents.
Residents would then have an incentive to support well-designed infill development. When completed, each of these upgraded parks operates as a multifunctional, communal “backyard” for residents of a surrounding higher-density urban precinct.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299806/original/file-20191101-102182-1ncjsyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/299806/original/file-20191101-102182-1ncjsyg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Before and after: parks become multifunctional communal ‘backyards’ for people living at a higher density around the park. Author provided
The lure of suburbia clearly remains strong for people around the world. If planners are to deal with the problems of sprawl, they need to increase urban density in a way that resonates with the leafy green qualities of suburbia that most people desire (at very least in Australia).
Transit-oriented development ideology relies on a false presumption that residents will trade the benefits of nature for the benefits of urbanity. We require a new vision of urban densification that responds to the urban, societal and ecological challenges of the 21st century and aligns with people’s preference for suburban living near nature.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126204/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Julian Bolleter, Deputy Director, Australian Urban Design Research Centre, University of Western Australia.
Cristina E. Ramalho, Research fellow, University of Western Australia.<a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-western-australia-1067" target="_blank"></a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/god-save-us-greenspace-oriented-development-could-make-higher-density-attractive-126204" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Greenspace-oriented development could make higher density attractive

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. (attributed to Danish physicist Niels Bohr)
The difficulty of making predictions has long been known, but the rise of the internet means that it is getting harder to hide the gaps between predictions and reality.
Perhaps the most significant example of repeated failed projections has been the International Energy Agency’s projections of the importance of renewable power – the proportion of electricity generated by solar and wind and other renewable sources other than hydro.
Beginning in 1994, when generation from these sources was negligible, the Agency has produced estimates of the future share of renewables every two years.
Every two years, with striking regularity, the previous estimates have been exceeded (hugely) and the new set has been revised upwards. But never by enough. Each time the upward revision has been inadequate.
This graph, prepared by <a href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood</a> from IEA reports, illustrates the point:
Projections versus reality
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302056/original/file-20191117-66945-19v9ijz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302056/original/file-20191117-66945-19v9ijz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Reality versus repeated projections of renewables share of electricity generation (ex hydro). <a class="source" href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood, Quora</a>
The dashed lines represent successive projections from 1994 to 2016.
The solid red line represents the actual growth of non-hydro renewables as a share of total electricity generation.
What can be seen is that eleven times in a row the projected growth in renewables was far too low and had to be upgraded. Eleven times in a row the upgrades weren’t big enough.
As a joke (indicated by the green line) Mainwood “corrected” the 2016 projection for the typical under-projection:
Projections plus “corrected” 2016 projection
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302067/original/file-20191117-66953-1tfh6u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302067/original/file-20191117-66953-1tfh6u0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Reality versus projections of renewables share of electricity generation (ex hydro) plus 2016 projection corrected for typical undershoot. <a class="source" href="https://www.quora.com/q/xwpxpfefwalgifkr/A-modest-proposal-to-the-International-Energy-Authority" target="_blank">Paul Mainwood</a>
Projections often understate change
Another striking example relates to religious belief. In 2015 the Pew Research Institute released a <a href="https://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/" target="_blank">report</a> suggesting a gradual decline in Christianity in the United States.
The headline finding for the US:
"Christians will decline from more than three-quarters (75%) of the population in 2010 to two-thirds (66%) in 2050."
Yet only four years later in 2019, Pew released another report with this headline finding about the US:
'In 2018 and 2019, 65% of American adults describe themselves as Christians when asked about their religion, down 12 percentage points over the past decade."
Thus, a decline expected to take forty years had taken place inside ten.
Moreover, Christian affiliation is highest in the older age cohorts, very few members of which will be around in 2050. Looking at the younger cohort born after 1981, only 49% claim a Christian affiliation, a proportion that has declined by 16 percentage points in a decade. Unless that trend is rapidly reversed, or later cohorts experience a religious revival, Christians will be a minority well before 2050.
They enable modellers to escape responsiblity
Faced with outcomes of this kind, modellers often defend themselves by drawing a distinction between “predictions” and “projections”.
A prediction (Latin for “foretelling”) is a claim about what is most likely to happen in the future. By contrast, a projection (“casting forward”) is a model output derived by extrapolating past trends, holding some parameters constant and allowing others to vary.
The International Energy Agency projections were characterised by the assumption that the costs of renewable energy would change only slowly, rather than continuing the extraordinary decline that began in the 1970s.
In the case of the Pew projections, the crucial parameter is conversion rates – the frequency with which people brought up with one religion (including “no religion”) change to another. The Pew projections were based on the assumption conversion rates will remain unchanged.
It is the opposite of the widely-held but controversial “secularisation hypothesis” which states that modernisation leads to increased conversions to “no religion”.
Predictions force them to take responsibility
Projections are useful in the development of models. All models are based on past experience and have to assume that in some respects the future will be like the past. By examining the projections generated under particular assumptions about which variables and parameters will remain constant, it is possible to understand how models works and make modelling choices.
But projections of this kind are of no use in informing people not familiar with the material. They mislead casual readers of the Australia’s budget.
The budget uses both predictions and projections.
For the two years following each budget the Commonwealth uses “forecasts” which it is prepared to stand by, then for the next two it presents mechanical “projections”:
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/302072/original/file-20191117-66957-w8vxaq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
<a class="source" href="https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/bp1/index.htm" target="_blank">2019-20 Commonwealth budget, Budget Paper 1</a>
When asked to defend (for example) its wage growth number of 3½%, the treasury points out that it is a mechanical projection rather than a forecast, a distinction lost on all but the most enthusiastic of budget devotees.
In practice it is impossible to separate the two.
Even though both the International Energy Association and Pew describe their estimates as “projections” they are almost invariably <a href="https://www.mining.com/new-iea-report-predicts-surge-in-global-coal-use-2/" target="_blank">treated as</a> <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/future-religion-around-world-one-chart" target="_blank">predictions</a>. 
Since any statement about the future will be treated as a prediction, the only serious option for modellers prepared to be truthful with the public is to bite the bullet and make predictions.
It means working hard to make the best possible estimate of the future paths of all model parameters, and using judgement to take account of everything else.
It’s what those of us looking to experts for guidance deserve.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126734/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/please-no-more-projections-what-we-need-are-predictions-and-theyre-harder-126734" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Please, no more projections. What we need are predictions, and they’re harder

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Concrete is the most widely used man-made material, commonly used in buildings, roads, bridges and industrial plants. But producing the Portland cement needed to make concrete accounts for 5-8% of all global greenhouse emissions.
There is a more environmentally friendly cement known as MOC (magnesium oxychloride cement), but its poor water resistance has limited its use – until now. We have developed a water-resistant MOC, a “green” cement that could go a long way to cutting the construction industry’s emissions and <a href="https://gccassociation.org/sustainability-innovation/" target="_blank">making it more sustainable</a>.
Producing a tonne of conventional cement in Australia emits about <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267233444_SCM's_potential_to_lower_Australia's_greenhouse_gas_emissions_profile" target="_blank">0.82 tonnes of carbon dioxide</a> (CO₂). Because most of the CO₂ is released as a result of the chemical reaction that produces cement, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-why-cement-emissions-matter-for-climate-change" target="_blank">emissions aren’t easily reduced</a>. In contrast, MOC is a different form of cement that is carbon-neutral.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301205/original/file-20191112-178520-1o0tfjn.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301205/original/file-20191112-178520-1o0tfjn.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Global CO₂ emissions from rising cement production over the past century (with 95% confidence interval). <a href="https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/195/2018/" target="_blank">Source: Global CO2 emissions from cement production, Andrew R. (2018)</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY</a>
What exactly is MOC?
MOC is produced by mixing two main ingredients, magnesium oxide (MgO) powder and a concentrated solution of magnesium chloride (MgCl₂). These are byproducts from magnesium mining.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301216/original/file-20191112-178498-1i9iftz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301216/original/file-20191112-178498-1i9iftz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Magnesium oxide (MgO) powder (left) and a solution of magnesium chloride (MgCl₂) are mixed to produce magnesium oxychloride cement (MOC). Author provided
Many countries, including China and Australia, have plenty of magnesite resources, as well as seawater, from which both MgO and MgCl₂ could be obtained.
Furthermore, <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.chemrev.5b00463" target="_blank">MgO can absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere</a>. This makes MOC a truly green, carbon-neutral cement.
MOC also has many superior material properties compared to conventional cement.
Compressive strength (capacity to resist compression) is the most important material property for cementitious construction materials such as cement. MOC has a much higher compressive strength than conventional cement and this impressive strength can be achieved very fast. The fast setting of MOC and early strength gain are very advantageous for construction.
Although MOC has plenty of merits, it has until now had poor water resistance. Prolonged contact with water or moisture severely degrades its strength. This <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/suco.201800077" target="_blank">critical weakness has restricted its use</a> to indoor applications such as floor tiles, decoration panels, sound and thermal insulation boards.
How was water-resistance developed?
A team of researchers, led by Yixia (Sarah) Zhang, has been working to develop a water-resistant MOC since 2017 (when she was at UNSW Canberra).
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301217/original/file-20191112-178494-1jalea4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301217/original/file-20191112-178494-1jalea4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Adding industrial byproducts fly ash (above) and silica fume (below) improves the water resistance of MOC. Author provided
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301393/original/file-20191112-178511-1he0duz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301393/original/file-20191112-178511-1he0duz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
To improve water resistance, the team added industrial byproducts such as fly ash and silica fume to the MOC, as well as chemical additives.
Fly ash is a byproduct from the coal industry – there’s plenty of it in Australia. Adding fly ash significantly improved the water resistance of MOC. Flexural strength (capacity to resist bending) was fully retained after soaking in water for 28 days.
To further retain the compressive strength under water attack, the team added silica fume. Silica fume is a byproduct from producing silicon metal or ferrosilicon alloys. When fly ash and silica fume were combined with MOC paste (15% of each additive), full compressive strength was retained in water for 28 days.
Both the fly ash and silica fume have a similar effect of filling the pore structure in MOC, making the cement denser. The reactions with the MOC matrix form a gel-like phase, which contributes to water repellence. The extremely fine particles, large surface area and high reactive silica (SiO₂) content of silica fume make it an effective binding substance known as a <a href="https://concretecountertopinstitute.com/free-training/the-use-of-pozzolans-in-concrete/" target="_blank">pozzolan</a>. This helps give the concrete high strength and durability.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301218/original/file-20191112-178498-1kb1a8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301218/original/file-20191112-178498-1kb1a8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Scanning electron microscope images of MOC showing the needle-like phases of the binding mechanism. Author provided
Although the MOC developed so far had excellent resistance to water at room temperature, it weakened fast when soaked in warm water. The team worked to overcome this by using inorganic and organic chemical additives. Adding phosphoric acid and soluble phosphates greatly improved warm water resistance.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301219/original/file-20191112-178516-1qpuacx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301219/original/file-20191112-178516-1qpuacx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Examples of building products made using MOC. Author provided
Over three years, the team has made a breakthrough in developing MOC as a green cement. The strength of concrete is rated using megapascals (<a href="https://www.hunker.com/12304046/definition-of-concrete-mpa" target="_blank">MPa</a>). The MOC achieved a compressive strength of 110 MPa and flexural strength of 17 MPa. These values are a few times <a href="https://infostore.saiglobal.com/preview/is/en/2011/i.s.en197-1-2011.pdf?sku=1492629" target="_blank">greater than those of conventional cement</a>.
The MOC can fully retain these strengths after being soaked in water for 28 days at room temperatures. Even in hot water (60˚C), the MOC can retain up to 90% of its compressive and flexural strength after 28 days. The values remain as high as 100 MPa and 15 MPa respectively – still much greater than for conventional cement.
Will MOC replace conventional cement?
So could MOC replace conventional cement some day? It seems very promising. More research is needed to demonstrate the practicability of uses of this green and high-performance cement in, for example, concrete.
When concrete is the main structural component, steel reinforcement has to be used. Corrosion of steel in MOC is a critical issue and a big hurdle to jump. The research team has already started to work on this issue.
If this problem can be solved, MOC can be a game-changer for the construction industry.
Yixia (Sarah) Zhang, Associate Professor of Engineering, Western Sydney University. 
Khin Soe, Research Associate, School of Computing, Engineering and Mathematics, Western Sydney University.
Yingying Guo, PhD Candidate, School of Engineering and Information Technology, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-cement-a-step-closer-to-being-a-game-changer-for-construction-emissions-126033" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Green cement a step closer to being a game-changer for construction emissions

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A two-level penthouse in Kew, Victoria with views across the Yarra Valley to the Northern Ranges has hit the market with $3.9 million to $4.29 million hopes. 
Designed by David Watson Architect, the apartment at 5/33 Stawell Street is one of just five custom-built residences in a boutique setting.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/23/kew%202.jpg" alt="">
The home comprises main bedroom with dress room, two further bedrooms, north-facing living zones, stone kitchen and balcony. 
Other features include double glazed windows, study workstation, ducted heating/cooling, designer lighting, and three basement car spaces plus storage cage.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/23/kew%203.jpg" alt="">
The building comes with a 136 sqm terrace with heated swimming pool.
Located just metres to the tranquil Yarra River, the penthouse is close to Kew Junction restaurants and shops, trams, schools, EastLink freeway, and parklands.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/23/kew%204.jpg" alt="">
Geoff Hall and Daniel Bradd of Kay &amp; Burton Hawthorn have the listing. 
The property had been scheduled for private auction on November 19, but this has been pushed back to December 3. 
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Two level Kew penthouse with valley and mountain views listed 

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Aussie consumers remain downbeat. In fact, the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index is down by 4.1 per cent between June 9 and November 17 2019 – the period in which interest rates have been lowered three times to a record low 0.75 per cent. Last week, the release of disappointing job and wage reports served to highlight the sense of unease Aussies are currently feeling about the economy. In fact, consumer views on ‘current’ economic conditions are now at the lowest level since April 23 2017.
While ultra-low interest rates are currently working their way through the economy and showing up primarily in rising capital city home prices, although rising unemployment, tepid pay rises and still-elevated household debt continue to restrain consumer spending intentions.
According to Commonwealth Bank (CBA) and Google trends searches data, measured household spending intentions edged higher in October. The modest upturn signals a potential improvement in consumer spending in the lead up to online retail shopping events - Black Friday and Cyber Monday - later this month, ahead of the all-important Christmas trading period.
The CBA gauge also revealed that consumer spending intentions on entertainment and travel are positive, suggesting that households are still keen to deploy their hard-earned coin on ‘pleasure pursuits’. But gyms and car dealerships remain under pressure as consumers’ rein-in non-essential spending on goods and services.
The rebound in home prices continues. The CoreLogic 5-Capital City Daily Home Value Index is up by 1.2 per cent so far in November, led by gains in Sydney (up 1.8 per cent), Melbourne (up 1.2 per cent) and Brisbane/Gold Coast (up 0.5 per cent). The lift in housing demand, supply constraints and record-low borrowing costs are pushing-up home prices – so it’s no surprise that home buying intentions are near record highs in early 2017, according to CBA Group economists.
What do the figures show? Consumer Sentiment
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 1.1 per cent to 109.9 points. Sentiment is below both the average of 114.3 points held since 2014 and the longer term average of 113.1 points held since 1990.
Three of the five major components of the index rose last week:
1. The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was up from +10.6 points to +10.9 points;
2. The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +25.6 points to +25.8 points;
3. Economic conditions over the next 12 months was down from -7.0 points to -9.4 points;
4. Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +6.0 points to +0.8 points;
5. The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was up from +20.6 points to +21.1 points.
The measure of inflation expectations was down from 4.1 per cent to 3.8 per cent.
The CBA Household Spending Intentions Series (HSI) – October
On home buying intentions: “Home buying intentions rose further in October and are now close to the record highs seen in H1 2017. Current HSI readings are consistent with an ongoing pick up in dwelling prices. And also consistent with a turn in leading indicators of residential construction like building approvals.”
On retail spending intentions: “Retail spending intentions are bouncing around at present but the lift in October means a modest uptrend is in place.”
On travel spending intentions: “Travel spending intentions are turning up, albeit from low levels. The trend in Australian residents holidaying overseas has slowed. The pick-up in the Travel HSI may be an indication that a lower AUD [Aussie dollar] is encouraging domestic holidays instead.”
On health &amp; fitness spending intentions: “Intentions to spend on health &amp; fitness have levelled out. Households are willing to allocate scarce disposable income to driving health &amp; fitness spending with little impact from the vagaries of the economic cycle.”
On education spending intentions: “Education spending intentions are high and rising. Policy makers and economic commentators can all see the need to lift productivity growth.”
On motor vehicle spending intentions: “Motor vehicle purchase intentions remain deep in negative territory. And the tentative signs of a turn up in the past few months have stalled.”
Reserve Bank November 5 Board minutes
Last paragraph – easing bias retained: “The Board concluded that the cash rate should be held steady at this meeting. As part of their deliberations, members also agreed that it was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. The Board would continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and was prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.”
A rate cut was considered by the Board: “The Board agreed that a case could be made to ease monetary policy at this meeting…”
Impact on consumer confidence and savers: “While members judged that lower interest rates were supporting the economy through the usual transmission channels (including a lower exchange rate, higher asset prices and higher cash flows for borrowers), they recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence. They also discussed the possibility that a further reduction in interest rates could have a different effect on confidence than in the past, when interest rates were at higher levels.”
Stimulus is working its way through the economy: “The established housing market was picking up, which would have positive spillovers for the broader economy, although the size of these spillovers was uncertain. Further evidence on spending by households was required before drawing a conclusion on the effects of the tax cuts and low interest rates. Having already delivered a substantial monetary stimulus in recent months, there was a case to wait and assess the effects of this stimulus, especially given the long and variable lags.”
Interest rate pause?: “The most appropriate approach would be to maintain the current stance of monetary policy and to make another full assessment once more evidence of the effects of the earlier monetary easing had become available.”
‘Gentle turning point’ reiterated: “The outlook for the Australian economy was little changed since August. After a soft period in the second half of 2018, GDP growth had picked up a little in the first half of 2019 and it appeared that a gentle turning point had been reached. Looking forward, growth was expected to strengthen gradually to 2¾ per cent over 2020 and around 3 per cent over 2021.”
On the job market: “The unemployment rate had remained steady at around 5¼ per cent and was expected to decline only gradually. Spare capacity was likely to remain in the labour market for some years.”
On inflation: “Inflationary pressures had remained subdued, held down by very low housing-related prices and slow growth in labour costs and administered prices.”
On the global economy: “Global financial markets were signaling a decline in pessimism, which, if sustained could lead to better-than-expected outcomes for the global economy.”
Financial markets pricing of future rate cuts: “Financial market pricing implied that expectations for a further reduction in the cash rate had been scaled back since the previous meeting, with some chance of a 25 basis point reduction around the middle of 2020.”
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
According to the Reserve Bank Board’s minutes – released today - policymakers considered another rate cut at their meeting in early November. The Board, however, opted to ‘sit pat’, instead cautioning that “they recognised the negative effects of lower interest rates on savers and confidence.” And in light of its diminishing conventional monetary policy ammunition, Board members also emphasised that, “Having already delivered a substantial monetary stimulus in recent months, there was a case to wait and assess the effects of this stimulus, especially given the long and variable lags.”
That said, the Reserve Bank has retained its policy easing bias. Further evidence of a continuing loss of momentum in the job market could be the catalyst for another rate cut. In fact, Board members concede that “spare capacity is likely to remain in the labour market for some years” with little progress expected to be made boosting Aussies pay packets – two essential ingredients for an improvement in consumer spending and a pick-up in inflation.
CommBank Group economists have pencilled in an interest rate cut in February 2020, but view further fiscal initiatives as being more effective in delivering additional support for the economy.
RYAN FELSMAN is a Senior Economist at CommSec
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Consumer views on the economy hit two and a half year low: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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Former Western Sydney NAB branch manager, Mathew Alwan, has been sentenced to 12 months imprisonment to be served by way of Intensive Corrections Order (ICO) for making false and misleading statements to NAB in relation to 24 home loan applications.
Mr Alwan had previously pleaded guilty to an ‘intention to defraud by false or misleading statement’ charge after he told NAB that an introducer had referred borrowers to make loan applications. In reality, the NAB introducer was Mr Alwan’s uncle, operating under the business name ‘Suit Club’. 
The fraud occurred between October 2013 and September 2015 and resulted in NAB paying Suit Club $56,995 in commissions.
ASIC has taken further action regarding NAB’s Introducer Program, launching civil proceedings in the Federal Court against NAB in August 2019.
As part of the ICO Mr Alwan will undertake 200 hours of community service and ongoing rehabilitation treatment.
ASIC has permanently banned Mr Alwan from providing financial services.
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Former NAB branch manager sentenced for making false and misleading statements

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A Manly home has sold at weekend auction for $3,116,000.
The residence sits at 12 Iluka Avenue which comprises 372 square metres. 
It features two bedrooms, a single bathroom, a carport, office, and a large level lawn.
Manly beach is 450 metres from the listing.
Ray White Freshwater agent Jacquelynn Watson and Andre de Ruyter managed the sale. 
 “The highest offer we had prior to auction was $2,450,000, and the bidding actually started $100,000 above that prior offer, we then went on to receive over 80 more bids before the hammer fell. “We had more than 200 people through the opens - everyone from builders and trades people through to families and downsizers - and it was a local family who were the lucky winning bidders. “This wonderful home combines the classic scale and characteristics of its 1940's origins with superb potential and the beachside location made it a wonderful offering.”
Manly's median house price is $2,825,650.
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Manly home on Iluka Avenue sells for over $3 million

The residential transformation of St Kilda Road is set to continue into with more new apartment plans for the sought-after boulevard.

Wing Tai Asia has lodged plans for a major residential tower at 464-466 St Kilda Road, replacing the former VACC House with an 18-storey mixed-use development designed around a retained heritage podium and a sculpted contemporary tower.

The proposal, prepared under Victoria’s Significant Residential Development with Affordable Housing pathway, would deliver 325 apartments and ground-floor retail across the prominent 4,653 sqm boulevard site in Melbourne’s St Kilda Road North Precinct.

The project centres on the adaptive reuse of the site’s heritage-listed VACC Building, an eight-storey office designed by Bernard Evans that has occupied the address for decades. Planning documents state the development would involve “carefully dismantling and conserving off-site the original metal fabric of the podium visible from St Kilda Road,” before reinstating it as the defining frontage of the new scheme.

Above the restored podium, Wing Tai is proposing a curvilinear residential tower. The scheme includes 172 one-bedroom apartments, 63 two-bedroom apartments, 66 three-bedroom apartments, and 24 four-bedroom apartments, alongside two ground-floor food and beverage tenancies fronting St Kilda Road.

The tower has been designed with substantial articulation and variable setbacks to minimise perceived bulk and maintain view corridors along the boulevard. Urbis, which prepared the planning report, said the design “has been significantly articulated through a curvilinear design” with “an interplay with materials, façade expression and depth” to create visual separation and visual interest.

The proposal also includes 254 basement car spaces, landscaped pedestrian links connecting St Kilda Road and Queens Lane, and a biophilic landscape strategy featuring canopy trees, raised planters, cascading greenery and a glass oculus pool overlooking the eastern frontage.

Planning documents confirm the $270.1 million development will contribute 3 per cent of project costs to the Social Housing Growth Fund as part of the application process.

Wing Tai acquired the St Kilda Road property in 2018 alongside Abacus Property Group for $95.38 million, before later consolidating ownership of the site. The property previously served as the Victorian Automobile Chamber of Commerce headquarters for around 60 years.

The transformation of the St Kilda Rd boulevard is already beginning to materialise, with a number of high-profile projects recently completed, launched, or approaching launch as developers continue to back the long-term appeal of the precinct.

Among the most notable recent completions is Louise by Samuel Property Group, just off the strip on Queens Lane, the same pocket Hirsch &amp; Faigen recently launched The Queensbury. Mirvac is too on the same street with The Albertine, which is approaching completion.

Dexus recently secured approval for its slice of St Kilda Road, while Gurner also has approved plans for the precinct.

Joel Robinson

Wing Tai unveils 325-apartment St Kilda Road tower on former VACC House site

Malaysian developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/s-p-setia">SP Setia</a> is the latest to jump into St Leonards booming Transport Oriented Development precinct.

The developer, which has previously delivered Sapphire by the Gardens apartment development in Melbourne, identified the Atchison Street site in 2023. It filed a Scoping Report around 12 months ago, and now has revealed the designs for the new&nbsp;40-storey mixed-use tower.

The State Significant Development Application covers <a href="https://next-portal.urban.com.au/projects/14650/summary">20-22 Atchison Street</a>, a 1,374 sqm site positioned between St Leonards Station and the new Crows Nest Metro station.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">COX Architecture</a>, the project would deliver 181 apartments, above a four-storey commercial podium, five basement levels, and new public domain works along Mitchell Street. The apartment mix comprises 35 one-bedroom apartments, 39 one-bedroom-plus-study apartments, 85 two-bedroom apartments, and 22 three-bedroom residences.

The proposal has been lodged as a shop-top housing development under the NSW Government’s TOD planning pathway, which allows increased density around key transport infrastructure. The site sits within the recently rezoned Crows Nest Accelerated TOD Precinct.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b799673d-48e2-46b0-801a-0e33a9330100" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20site.png?VersionId=dPh0UfwfaHpbFL1R7H1cbZNbIW0CHbCC" />

SP Setia acquired the Atchison Street site as part of its continued expansion into the Australian apartment market. In comments made to City &amp; Country (The Edge Malaysia) in 2023, SP Setia President and CEO Datuk Choong Kai Wai described the acquisition as “a strategic move” aligned with the group’s post-pandemic market recovery strategy.

“Our target for this exceptional development is local and overseas buyers, including first-home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Choong said.

The tower has been designed as a slender vertical form rising from a mixed-use podium, with COX Architecture positioning the development as a response to the evolving St Leonards and Crows Nest skyline.

“The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of high-quality housing at a strategically located site and deliver a built tower outcome that is consistent with the desired future character of St Leonards and aligns with the TOD controls,” the design report stated.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b1a85eee-76f7-436c-a6da-73ba827b9b13" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/atchinson%20entry.png?VersionId=dA9jHGPMcm.dDbwk4QfxqWiY5bfh3UVt" />

The podium would incorporate retail uses fronting Atchison Street, commercial tenancies, landscaped communal areas, and pedestrian improvements along Mitchell Street. Vehicle access and loading would be consolidated via Atchison Lane.

Residents would have access to more than 665 sqm of communal indoor and outdoor spaces, while the development proposes 96 parking spaces across five basement levels.

The proposal also includes a commitment for 10 per cent of residential floor space to be allocated toward affordable housing through a monetary contribution.

COX said the tower form responds directly to the emerging high-density character of the precinct while seeking to maximise solar access, cross ventilation, and outlook from apartments.

<img alt="First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2163f85c-f63b-4be3-aafa-f8763976cec5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Article%20Feature%20Image%20%28Grid%29_5.png?VersionId=WiAmtIKJ6.ZQ41EtYEQ1fol7AeorKBlL" />

“The building is orientated towards north,” the Apartment Design Guide compliance report noted, adding that the tower’s slim form was driven by the constrained inner-urban site dimensions.

The design also incorporates landscaped setbacks and communal open space at podium level, intended to soften the interface with surrounding streets and improve pedestrian amenity.

The project adds to a growing wave of redevelopment proposals reshaping St Leonards and Crows Nest following the opening of the Sydney Metro City line and the NSW Government’s push for higher-density housing around major transport nodes.

Last week Stockland filed plans just down the road. They want to build a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/601-pacific-highway-st-leonards-nsw-2065">52-storey tower on Pacific Highway</a>.

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-stockland-plans-52-storey-538-apartment-st-leonards-tower">First look: Stockland plans 52-storey, 538-apartment St Leonards tower&nbsp;</a>

First look: SP Setia targets St Leonards skyline with 40-storey TOD tower

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a> has revealed plans for a new mixed-use tower at 10 Dangar Street, Wickham, advancing a proposal that would reshape the southern gateway to Newcastle’s city centre with one of the city’s tallest residential buildings.

The State Significant Development proposal, now on exhibition, seeks approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bowline-10-dangar-street-wickham-nsw-2293">43-storey tower</a> immediately adjacent to the Newcastle Interchange. The project would deliver around 200 apartments, including 42 affordable housing dwellings, alongside 99 co-living units, a 171-room hotel, retail space, and new public domain integrated through the site.

The scheme marks a significant escalation of plans previously approved for the site. Urban Property Group took over the prominent 2,904 sqm parcel, where excavation and demolition had already commenced under an earlier consent for a 14-storey mixed-use development.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="58a96dd9-407f-4d20-86b4-94e4bfeef74b" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20podium.png?VersionId=LGlf08pdFGAZDzvx_CXC4XakHNZRuEE0" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/sjb-architects">SJB</a>, the tower has been conceived as a landmark transit-oriented development anchored to the Newcastle Interchange precinct. The proposal includes 245 build-to-sell apartments across a mix of one, two, and three-bedroom residences, as well as two penthouses. Fifteen apartments and one operational unit are earmarked for NDIS housing. The co-living component would add a further 99 units, while the podium would accommodate retail uses and hotel facilities.

SJB said the site presents “a valuable opportunity to anchor the precinct by setting the standard for design, active ground planes and character at the key southern gateway.”

The architecture responds directly to the site’s position beside major transport infrastructure and within one of Newcastle’s fastest-evolving urban renewal precincts. The tower form sits above a sculpted podium designed to frame new public spaces, including a through-site pedestrian link connecting Station Street to Hannell Street, landscaped plazas, and activated retail edges.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a7bd6ff0-f7db-4ce8-a6dc-ea56e72c6149" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20lanne.png?VersionId=xzf39VADyhj7zBQY2I9fx9vI62u2tuSb" />

The design report describes the project as part of the broader transition of Wickham into “a vibrant, high-quality mixed-use urban precinct” that leverages proximity to the station, open space, and regional connectivity.

A detailed public art strategy has also been prepared for the development. The strategy positions the project as “a transit-oriented development of state significance at the gateway to Newcastle’s city centre” and outlines a series of integrated artworks responding to Newcastle’s industrial and transport heritage.

Creative Road’s curatorial framework for the project, titled Unveil, draws on “stratified surfaces, carved volumes, and light-filled apertures” while referencing Newcastle’s transformation from an industrial city into a contemporary education and technology hub.

<img alt="First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s next supertower at Wickham interchange" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="77a882bb-14b1-4d28-99ff-9438e39508c0" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/wickham%20site.png?VersionId=cevgo_vN0eKPK78P8YcEu3mKPLkpFqE7" />

The proposal is being advanced through the NSW Housing Delivery Authority pathway after being declared State Significant Development in June 2025. The accompanying scoping report states the development aims to “maximise the site’s proximity to the Newcastle Interchange by delivering transit-oriented development” while increasing housing supply and affordable housing provision within the Newcastle LGA.

Urban Property Group’s plans align with the long-term strategic vision established under the Wickham Master Plan, which identified the interchange precinct as suitable for substantial uplift in height and density. The current proposal would significantly intensify that vision, positioning the tower among the tallest developments proposed for Newcastle.

The site sits immediately north of the Newcastle Interchange, bounded by Dangar Street, Hannell Street, and Charles Street. It is surrounded by a rapidly growing cluster of residential towers and mixed-use projects that have emerged following the completion of the light rail and transport interchange.

First look: Urban Property Group unveils Newcastle’s latest tower at Wickham interchange

Bottega House has completed settlement of a landmark riverfront site in Macquarie Street, St Lucia, representing its first major Brisbane development.&nbsp;

Positioned on the banks of the Brisbane River, the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/180-macquarie-street-st-lucia-qld-4067">premium site at 180 Macquarie Street</a> features uninterrupted river frontage in one of Brisbane’s most tightly held residential precincts.&nbsp;

The proposed development, currently under assessment with Brisbane City Council, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/plus-studio">Plus Studio</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/mim-design">Mim Design</a> and will deliver a boutique collection of premium residences positioned specifically for owner occupiers and downsizers.&nbsp;

The residences are set to redefine luxury apartment living in the area, with a focus on architectural quality, refined finishes, landscape integration and elevated amenities including curated wellness facilities, resort-style pools and recreation spaces rarely seen in the local market.&nbsp;

Exclusive sales for the project will be led by Keenan &amp; Byrne, ahead of an anticipated launch later this year.&nbsp;

Bottega House Managing Director Nick Malloch said the project reflects the group’s ambition to deliver a highly curated residential offering within one of Brisbane’s most tightly held precincts.&nbsp;

“This is an incredibly rare riverfront opportunity and one we have approached with a long-term perspective,” Malloch said.&nbsp;

“Our vision from the outset was to create a boutique collection of residences that feel more like private homes than traditional apartments, with generous proportions, refined finishes and exceptional amenity throughout."

Malloch says there is a&nbsp;lack of premium owner-occupier stock of this quality in the market, particularly for downsizers wanting space, privacy and a true lifestyle offering without compromise.&nbsp;

"Demand is expected to be strong given the scarcity of premium riverfront opportunities of this nature within Brisbane’s inner-west."&nbsp;

Bottega House secures landmark riverfront site in St Lucia 

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The arrival of the first piling rig officially marks the commencement of construction at SIERA’s new beachside apartment development, Exhale, in Northcliffe.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/exhale-surfers-paradise-8-enderley-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Exhale</a>, a glass-encased tower featuring 54 large-scale apartments at 8 Enderley Avenue, is SIERA’s third Gold Coast development. It follows the recently completed PIPIS Bilinga beachfront project, which achieved suburb-record prices, and the soon-to-be-completed Chevron Island development, Tapestry.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359603]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/siera">SIERA</a> Founder and Managing Director Brent Thompson said the arrival of the piling rig represented a significant milestone for the development, which is scheduled for completion in late 2028.

Over the next month, around 260 piles are expected to be installed as work progresses on the basement structure. The building is anticipated to rise above ground level early next year, before unveiling its sculptural glass curtain wall, developed in collaboration with specialist façade engineers.

“The façade was designed to maximise panoramic coastal views while creating a distinctive architectural identity,” Thompson said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=355935]

Designed by BDA Architecture, Exhale will comprise just 54 two- and three-bedroom residences across 26 levels, a level of low-density living rarely delivered in this beachside pocket between Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The project has been conceived as a resident-only building, with no short-stay accommodation permitted. SIERA says the model is intended to appeal to long-term owner-occupiers rather than transient holiday demand.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=361052]

Residences have been designed with large-format layouts and expansive glazing, with most apartments featuring more than 30 metres of glass frontage to maximise natural light and ocean views.

The amenity offering spans two levels and centres on wellness and lifestyle, including a heated magnesium pool, sauna, yoga and Pilates studio, gymnasium, private dining facilities, cinema lounge, and dedicated surfcraft storage.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112661 project_image_fid=359607]

More than half of the apartments have already sold. SIERA has also opened a sales gallery for Exhale at its Chevron Island commercial premises, near its Tapestry tower and the site of its second Chevron Island apartment development, which is slated to launch in early 2027.
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[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112661]

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