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GUEST OBSERVATION
The university sector faces cumulative losses of up to A$19 billion over the next three years due to lost international student revenue.
Modelling from the <a href="http://www.mitchellinstitute.org.au/higher-education-funding-report-final-april-2020/">Mitchell Institute</a> shows the next big hit will come mid-year when $2 billion in annual tuition fees is wiped from the sector as international students are unable to travel to Australia to start their courses for second semester.
Such losses are not just a university problem. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5368.0.55.0032017-18?OpenDocument">ABS data show</a> for every $1 lost in university tuition fees, there is another $1.15 lost in the broader economy due to international student spending.
This means the Australian economy could lose more than $40 billion by 2023 because of reduced numbers of higher education international students.
We estimate each six-monthly intake missed due to closed borders will deliver an annual economic blow comparable to when Australia’s <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/automotive/report">auto manufacturing industry shut down</a> (worth around $5 billion), or the loss of Australia’s $4.1 billion <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/7503.0">annual vegetable crop</a>.
Our modelling shows there will be no quick return to pre-coronavirus normality either, or “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-morrison-dropped-the-snap-back-strategy-20200408-p54i3t">snapback</a>” as Prime Minister Scott Morrison described it.
Missed intakes disrupt the pipeline of international students – who usually study for two to three years – so lost revenue continues to impact budgets for several years.
Forecasts tell a disturbing story
We looked at <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/finance-publication">university finance data</a> and <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/default_annual.aspx">enrolment trends</a>. We modelled two scenarios: one with a relatively quick recovery of international student enrolments beginning in 2021, and the other with an extended travel ban that meant no new international students until 2022.
Both scenarios were disastrous for the higher education sector.
The first showed the university sector losing about $10 billion, though international student revenue would largely return to normal by 2023.
But the second scenario, incorporating extended travel bans, had a longer-lasting effect. With the government announcing the borders are likely to remain closed for “<a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/australians-may-not-be-able-to-travel-overseas-until-2021-due-to-coronavirus/news-story/5b29c380cef922d256fec79b85b261ab">quite some time to come</a>” the worst-case scenario seems more likely.
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328319/original/file-20200416-192762-ts99nc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328319/original/file-20200416-192762-ts99nc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
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Over the Easter weekend, the government <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/covid-19/higher-education/higher-education-faq">announced a package</a> that guarantees funding for the estimated enrolments of domestic students in 2020, despite whether the actual enrolments are fewer than estimated. The package includes about <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-12/government-announces-coronavirus-higher-education-relief-package/12142752">$100 million</a> in waived regulatory fees and funding for an additional 20,000 short online courses in national priority areas such as nursing and IT.
This will fall well short of plugging the gap international students will leave behind.
Based on historical funding rates per student, the government would need to fund another 1.9 million short courses, and universities find the same number of students to enrol, to make up for the projected losses in international student revenue.
Financial position of universities
This modelling was part of the Mitchell Institute’s more in-depth <a href="http://www.mitchellinstitute.org.au/higher-education-funding-report-final-april-2020/">investigation into higher education funding</a>. Our analysis shows total university revenue from international students grew by 137% over the past decade. More than 40% of the sector’s annual student revenue now comes from international students.
International students delivered almost $9 billion in annual revenue to universities in 2018, accounting for around 58% of student revenue at two of Australia’s most prestigious universities, the University of Melbourne and the University of Sydney.
Despite the revenue windfall, growth has been uneven. Group of Eight universities experienced the biggest growth in international students, tripling their international student revenue over the past decade. For other universities, particularly smaller and regional universities, revenue grew at a much slower rate.
Even though some balance sheets are healthy, there is limited ability to weather a protracted downturn. University surpluses were only A$1.5 billion across the whole sector in 2018. The sudden and steep decline in international student enrolments is a significant economic challenge for universities.
The outlook for universities
Australia’s universities have <a href="https://meanjin.com.au/essays/the-australian-idea-of-a-university">relied on international students</a> as a source of growth for a long time. While the amount the universities receive per domestic student has been virtually flat in real terms over the past decade, fees each international student pays have increased by over 50%.
With this revenue stream suddenly threatened, the education experience of domestic students will suffer. Universities will need to make <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/12/australian-universities-warn-covid-19-relief-package-not-enough-to-stop-21000-jobs-losses">deep cuts to staff</a> and courses without further assistance.
This will come at a time when Australia will need its higher education sector as part of any COVID-19 recovery. It is likely demand from domestic students for university places will rise because of workers looking to re-skill and up-skill.
University enrolments from domestic students have increased <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2020/03/25/predicting-student-numbers-during-the-covid-19-recession-2021-could-be-an-unexpected-peak-year/">during previous recessions</a> and the federal education minister has encouraged those who are out of work to undertake study.
Also, one quarter of school leavers usually take a gap year to work or travel. With those plans looking unlikely, there may be an increase in school leavers wanting to study.
But despite the extra funding for 20,000 short courses, universities are unable to respond fully to <a href="https://theconversation.com/demand-driven-funding-for-universities-is-frozen-what-does-this-mean-and-should-the-policy-be-restored-116060">any changes in demand</a>. Caps introduced in 2017 still remain that effectively limit the number of places universities can offer.
Increasing capacity in the tertiary sector by removing the caps on university places would assist universities to deal with the coronavirus crisis.
Universities play an important role in our society, and they will bring future revenue into the economy when international student numbers eventually recover. Australia will need to make further decisions about how much we want to support our universities during this crisis.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136251/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-hurley-342847">Peter Hurley</a>, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/victoria-university-1175">Victoria University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian universities could lose $19 billion in the next 3 years.

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Melbourne saw lower clearance rates across all nine sub-regions when compared to the December quarter, according to CoreLogic's Quarterly Auction Market report. 
However, all 9 sub-regions have recorded higher quarterly clearance rates and auction volumes than they did over the March 2019 quarter. 
The Outer East recorded the highest clearance rate this quarter, with 67.3 per cent of the 766 auctions returning a successful result, followed by the Inner South. 
Melbourne’s Inner region had the highest volume of scheduled auctions over the last three months (1,681), followed by the Inner South (1,347).
Overall Melbourne’s clearance rate was recorded at 63.8 per cent across 8,882 auctions over the quarter, compared to 72.8 per cent across 12,870 auctions over the previous quarter and 51.8 per cent across 6,375 auctions over the March 2019 quarter.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/4/14/4_Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Melbourne's Outer East recorded the highest clearance rate in Melbourne this quarter: CoreLogic

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Australian residential developer Crown Group has taken the next steps in its first move into the US market, where it plans to develop a US$500 million mixed-use high-rise condominium and hotel tower. 
Crown Group is progressing entitlements with Los Angeles City Hall for the proposed tower, which is earmarked for the southeast corner of South Hill and 11th streets at the convergence of Downtown’s financial, fashion and South Park districts.
Crown Group has formed a joint venture with a Singapore based company called Magnus Property Pte Ltd and one of Indonesia’s biggest property developers, ASRI.
The joint venture group settled on the Downtown site in November 2019.
The 43-storey tower has been designed by renowned Koichi Takada Architects and the project at 1111 Hill Street is expected to be completed in 2024.
The high-rise sections of the building will comprise 319 condominiums with an exclusive residents’ retreat over the top two floors and a façade design that references California’s gigantic ancient redwood trees.
Crown Group’s LA office is also in discussions to perhaps incorporate a 160-key hotel in the low rise of the building.
Crown Group CEO Iwan Sunito said the flourishing Downtown district of LA had experienced a significant transformation over the past decade. This is evidenced by LA Live’s expansion, Warner Music and Spotify establishing offices, headline retailers such as Apple, Vans and Paul Smith launching flagship stores, a bevy of iconic restaurants opening venues and numerous residential, hotel and commercial developments underway.
Crown Group Head of US Development Patrick Caruso said the development would offer an appealing point of difference for buyers in Downtown LA and bring a new version of condominium living to the district.
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Crown Group secures land for its first USA project

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There are signs that the Queensland Government's proposed legislation proposed on rental protections is being reviewed.
The Real Estate Institute of Queensland has launched a campaign against laws set to be put to parliament next Wednesday which will effect 600,000 landlords.
The Palaszczuk Government has promised to consult more widely on its proposed rental protections after thousands of angry letters to the Premier’s office in just one day.
The government and REIQ will meet today.
REIQ chief executive Antonia Mercorella said her organisation was not opposed to a six-month moratorium protecting people from eviction, or from entitled tenants getting a rent reduction.
But she said landlords wanted rent deferrals on the discounted portion of rent, rather than permanent rent waivers.
The REIQ want tenants to provide proof of financial difficulty.
They want a threshold as to how much a tenant must be financially impacted before protection.
“It’s not their fault they can’t make their payments if they’ve lost their job. But it goes too far.
“It throws the property owners to the wolves .... this will break many property investors”.
Ms Mercorella said banks weren’t giving out mortgage pauses as easily as the Government seemed to believe.
Housing Minister Mick de Benni has advised the laws would not be a blanket rent waiver, but allowed property owners and tenants to renegotiate rental agreements for the short term.
“No Queenslander should have to end this lockdown period with no job and an insurmountable debt, through no fault of their own,” he said.
“All of us have a role to play to get through this, including the banks who need to provide mortgage relief for landlords.”
 
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Queensland Government set to ratchet back COVID-19 rental rules

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Expert Observation
Despite the current gains recorded for the March quarter being on track with our base case forecasts, given current events, there is only a single scenario that is still feasible and that is Scenario 4 – a scenario we outlined in our top 4 scenarios for 2020. 
One where the RBA would bring the cash rate to zero and start quantitative easing. It was based on a possibility the tentative trade war truce between the U.S and China would collapse and a ‘take no prisoners’ trade war would break out between the two countries, turning into a global trade war.
The outlook for housing in this scenario was one where the market would eventually stall and start to record price decreases from mid-year onwards. That the rate cuts and money printing would not be able to offset job losses and subsequently, forced sales activity.
Yes, the RBA has now had to introduce quantitative easing. Yes, the cash rate is now just 0.25 per cent. But what we now face economically is a tsunami that dwarfs even a global trade war.
To get a sense of the economic carnage that is underway, check out this gif of U.S jobless claims.
The scale of what we are facing right now on the economic front is something never truly encountered since The Great Depression. And if we don’t manage it well then a depression (a contract in in GDP of greater than 10 per cent) is what we will have – something which I am far more frightened of than catching Covid-19. And believe me, I do not want to catch this virus.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/4/16/SQM%20chart.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
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So, with that in mind, I want to now give a general outlook on what I think are two main scenarios that are really in play this year.
A V-shaped recovery
Let’s be clear, despite the positive Corelogic numbers (dwelling prices rose 2.8 per cent for the quarter) and indeed our asking price indexes, I think housing price expectations have already corrected by five per cent to ten per cent from their very highs. That may not show up in the official numbers as the highs were only briefly obtained during the later stages of February. It is anecdotal only, through my discussions with real estate agents and the sharp fall in clearance rates, which were already occurring prior to the auction ban starting from the 25th of March.
The best case scenario from here for property owners and investors is one where we get to zero new Covid-19 cases before April is over with. And on that front the numbers have been looking promising. I believe it is now a 50 per cent chance that our three major states will record a zero new Covid-19 cases day before the month is over. If we get to that point, the next question begs how long will restrictions be kept? Potentially some restrictions could be lifted in May. And my bet is that when restrictions are eventually lifted, they will be lifted in the reverse order that they were placed on to begin with. As the ban on auctions occurred as one of the last stages (25 March), it is quite feasible that lifting that ban could come sooner than expected.
If we are able to get back to close to normal business by end of May (I certainly don’t think all restrictions will be lifted by that time), then I think confidence in the housing market is going to return. Assisted with all the stimulus announced and the economic damage relatively limited, it would mean a fall in housing prices recorded for the June quarter but a bounce back in the September and December quarters. The net result for the year may come in at our Scenario 4 range or slightly better.
It should not be underestimated how much expenditure has been announced (including RBA money printing via quantitative easing) and how low lending rates are now. 
A borrower with a good credit rating can now expect a variable owner occupier lending rate somewhere between 2.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Average capital city gross rental yields are running at about 2.9 per cent for houses and 3.9 per cent for units.
That means property owners on a purely interest expenses verses rental payments scenario could do better owning. And of course it also means that investors may find more cashflow positive properties in our major cities.
That said though, we think there is trouble ahead for the rental market. We will come to that point later.
<h2>The worse-case scenario</h2>
The worse-case scenario is we have a second wave in new virus case counts and it occurs shortly after some restrictions are lifted. Or that new case numbers flatten at current levels but never quite manage to get to zero cases or stay at zero cases. This appears to be the plight of South Korea at the moment.
If this second wave were to occur, we think the housing market will have a much deeper correction.
A second wave of new Covid-19 cases is a great risk. Note, a second wave of Spanish Flue hit Australia in mid-1919 and this occurred just after restrictions were lifted after the first wave, noting hospital numbers (which is the available data we have for time) never actually got to zero on the lull.
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Such a scenario would mean current restrictions would stay with us for longer. Probably more than six months. Or worse, more restrictions added. A second wave of infections may be more deadly as it would potentially occur over the course of the Southern Hemisphere winter. A sharp rise in deaths may result in more panic at the shops and most certainly a new low in confidence.
Damage to the economy would be deeper and longer lasting. Many businesses, including those that are currently on life-support, would not last the distance and will be liquidated.
You see, even with the generous measures announced for small business, it won’t be enough to keep much of the sector alive for half a year. When there is little to zero revenues coming in, month after month, PAYG relief is not enough. Being subsidised to cover employee wages at $1,500 a fortnight is not enough. Neither is a $10,000 cash grant for most. And forget about asking small business to go into debt. Most of them, particularly in retail, hospitality and tourism, will refuse to do so. And so job creation would occur at a far slower rate when a recovery would eventually return.
With the surging and sustained unemployment rate, the banks could start to get nervous on mortgages. Potentially, after the six-month hiatus, banks may be backed into a corner where they are forced to repossession on defaulted housing loans. Now I believe the RBA and/or the Federal Government would come to the rescue to enable banks to avoid a mass repossession event. Let’s keep in mind that in 2008, the banks could have pulled the trigger on the commercial property sector. Many owners at the time were in breach of lending covenants. The banks, by and large, chose not to pull that trigger. Mainly for their own self-preservation, as doing so would have created a cascading affect that would have smashed their balance sheets.
So I am not convinced we will see a lot of forced sales activity, even in this bleaker scenario. All the same, there will be many property owners who will want to sell out if this crisis goes on for six months or more. They will see the falls in dwelling prices over the course of the June quarter. And they will be very protective of what is left of their net wealth.
The buy side of the property equation would be hit very hard as it is being hit hard now. But far worse than what we had in 2018 or indeed 2008.
You see it’s not just the loss of employees representing many first home buyers, but, as mentioned above it is also the potential wipe out of many thousands of small business owners, who themselves employ nearly 50 per cent of the total workforce. Small business owners actually represent a very large component of the home buyer market. As at the 2016 Census there were over two million small businesses.
So this is very much a buy side issue in my view. Anyone that is worried they will lose their job or their business, won’t be seriously thinking of taking out a home loan to buy into the property market.
Let’s also remind ourselves that our international border is closed to most except for permanent residents, citizens and some temporary visa holders. And I believe it will remain closed for many months to come. So underlying demand for housing, which has been predominantly driven by net overseas migration has now stalled for this year. This will be a different experience to the Spanish Flu of 1919, whereby population growth still expanded at a very strong rate (1.9 per cent for 2019) due to our soldiers returning home as well as the settling of European refuges.
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Up to a 30 per cent peak to trough price decline cannot be ruled out.
In this more bleaker scenario, a 30 per cent decline in dwelling prices would be on the cards. Note, I have not modelled this out, other than taking elements such as previous work on the relationship between unemployment and the housing market. Modelling in this environment is almost impossible. It is simply based on my experience and study. The most overvalued cities would be hit the hardest, that being Sydney and Melbourne. Other cities should do better than a 30 per cent correction given their relative fair value. Now some of you will note that during The Great Depression, the Australian housing market did not correct by this magnitude. Nor, during the Spanish plague of 1919 did the Australian housing market record such a correction. However, those two markets were not laden with the debt burden our current housing market has. Not even close. The only market that comes close in Australia was the massive boom/bust of the 1890s.
Of course, it should be noted that period was also laden by a very dodgy and nearly entirely unregulated banking sector.
Either way, the rental market is in trouble.
Overall, a stalling in underlying demand for accommodation driven by near zero migration, combined with a reduction in existing tenancy demand (as a result of job losses) plus a very likely increase in supply from empty AirBNB accommodation will likely mean we can now expect a rise in rental vacancies over this year. Previously the forecast was for a gentle reduction in vacancies in 2020 as dwelling completions were (and still are) due to fall.
On our estimates and other estimates, there are some 120,000+ properties nationwide at any point in time being used for short term accommodation via websites such as airbnb. And on our latest numbers for February,there were some 68,000 vacant rental properties available for normal leasing.
I can’t tell you how many property owners are going to switch back to longer term leasing but there will be a number, especially if this plays out for longer. This is not a scenario here. This is our view. Our view is that rental vacancy rates are going to rise sharply over the short term. I think we can expect the rate to rise from the current 2.0 per cent to north of 2.5 per cent and perhaps north of 3.0 per cent. That may not sound like much to you but if we do hit 3.0 per cent that would be a record high on our index which goes back to 2005. Rents would fall as a result. Perhaps our weekly asking rents index is already revealing some weakness with national asking rents for houses down by 0.9 per cent for the month and 0.3 per cent down for units.
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The weakness in the rental market will probably put off many would-be property investors over 2020 creating more issues on the buy side of the market.
So what is it going to be? - Scenario 1, Scenario 2 or another scenario?
The next 30 days will likely tell the story. It is very hard to judge it. Like everyone else I am watching the new case numbers closely.
Let me tell you. I don’t want Scenario 2 to play out. A depression would create massive economic misery. Suicides will rise, so will crime.
There is also the possibility we muddle through somewhere between the two scenarios. A world where daily new virus cases don’t quite get to zero but there isn’t a second wave. Restrictions lifted very gradually over many months. Eventually, a vaccine is produced and distributed in 2021. We would need to see what is lifted and at what point in time to work out the impact on the housing market. Regardless, rents will still be hit for simply the fact that the international border will still remain closed.
LOUIS CHRISTOPHER is the CEO of SQM Research
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Looking back at forecasts made in October last year: Louis Christopher

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Realestate.com.au has today announced a new record audience of 10.7 million people for March.
Despite the real estate industry being forced to operate under new guidelines in order to minimise the spread of COVID-19.
The January figure was also a record with a unique audience of 9.3 million across the realestate.com.au platform, approximately three times the number of average monthly visits compared to its nearest competitor, Domain.
Given the lockdown, Realestate.com.au recently launched Digital Inspections with over 44,000 realestate.com.au Buy and Rent listings now featuring digital video tours.
Compared to early March, views of digital video tours are up 96 per cent and views of 3D tours are up 327 per cent.
REA Group Chief Sales Officer Kul Singh said, "REA has been doing everything it can to support the property market through these unprecented times and to deliver ongoing value to customers by providing access to Australia’s largest network of property seekers."
Barry Plant Director and Senior Auctioneer, James Hatzimoisis said new digital features are helping deliver more qualified leads.
“We’re finding that the enquiries we’re currently getting are much more qualified. People may still want to privately inspect a property before they buy it, but features like Digital Inspections make it so much easier for them to make a decision.”
Jellis Craig Armadale Head of Property Management, Sam Nokes said in the last fortnight he has seen an increase in leases signed without tenants physically inspecting the property and expects this trend to continue.
“We have offered virtual inspections for about three years and landlords have only very recently become more willing to lease to tenants who haven’t completed a physical inspection. At the moment people want to visit as few properties as possible and Digital Inspections allow tenants to pre-screen a property,” Sam said.
“We’re also finding that most prospective tenants who view a Digital Inspection and go on to a physical inspection, will then submit an application to lease the property.”
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Record realestate.com.au audience shows unquenched property thirst

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The 538 acre Woolangubra near Yass sold under the hammer last week for $375,000 over reserve.
Set to hold part of the Bango wind farm, the hotly contested green energy acreage sold for $1.6 million.
The winning bidders, Kerry and Roger Rayner also own the adjacent land and plan to continue expanding their sheep operation to grow their existing Merino and Dorset sheep numbers.
The online auction was held at the New South Wales head office studio and called by Ray White New South Wales CEO and auctioneer Jason Andrew.
Drawing 11 registered bidders, the auction capped off a campaign that Ray White Yass | Canberra selling agent Dominic Johns said attracted strong interest from start to finish.
“We had a good level of interest the whole way through the campaign especially with it being such a unique property, there were three or four different private inspections each week which was excellent,” Mr Johns said.
Ray White Yass Canberra agent George Southwell believed it could be the first wind farm that has ever been sold publicly in Australia.
“I haven’t been able to find another wind farm sale like it in Australia so I am certain it could potentially be the first,” Mr Southwell said.
 
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540 acre Woolangubra sold in fully online auction

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Temporary changes to the foreign investment review framework have created unintended consequences for funds managers that could create additional headwinds for struggling businesses at a time when equity and debt funding is desperately needed to drive the Australian economy.
Executive Chairman of Atlas Advisors Australia, Guy Hedley said the Australian Government’s recent reform, requiring all foreign investment be scrutinized by the Foreign Investment Review Board, has unintentionally captured some managed funds and could reduce interest in Australia as an investment destination at a time when the nation has a desperate need for capital.
“The reforms importantly aim to safeguard the national interest against opportunism amidst the COVID-19 crisis,” Mr Hedley said.
“However, it also creates needless complications for managed funds that invest broadly across different industries and sectors on behalf investors in areas that require capital support.
“In today’s fast-moving business environment, where innovation is key to survival, enterprise cannot wait unreasonably long periods of time for the delivery of outcomes.”
Mr Hedley said that by unintentionally adding some categories of managed funds to the non- FIRB exemption rules could have the effect of stymieing business opportunities that are critical to drive economic growth both now and in the future.
“These measures will leave thousands of Australian startups, emerging, listed and private companies stranded without critical funds needed to drive business continuity and change,” he said.
“Many of these companies will inevitably collapse, forgoing billions of dollars’ worth of tax and employment generating business opportunities.”
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New temporary FIRB rules hurt the economic recovery

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GUEST OBSERVER
Less than a month after restrictions first took effect, Australia appears to have contained the spread of COVID-19 more successfully than we could have possibly imagined.
But we’ve done so at unimaginable cost: large swathes of the economy have been shut down, leaving the livelihoods of millions of Australians on hold indefinitely. With new cases now on the decline, the conversation at today’s National Cabinet meeting will turn to what can reopen, and when.
But the economic costs of re-opening prematurely could be enormous.
The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">least costly</a> economic strategy is eliminating COVID-19 from Australia altogether. Growing epidemiological evidence suggests it may be possible for us to eliminate coronavirus within the next two to three months.
New Zealand is pursuing such a strategy.
Australia’s state and territory governments should <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/covid-19-there-are-only-two-options-from-here-one-is-more-deadly/">explicitly declare</a> that they want to eliminate the virus, and maintain harsh lockdown restrictions until new cases are down to zero or close to it.
And in the meantime we’ll accrue invaluable intelligence from other countries about how best to emerge from lockdowns, and plan accordingly.
There’s no doubt this strategy would have big short-term economic costs.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that severe shutdowns like our level-three restrictions wipe out almost a quarter of economic activity, costing Australia’s economy about 2% of annual GDP for each month they remain in place.
This means a three-month shutdown would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-oecd-estimates-suggest-a-22-hit-to-australias-economy-135026">shave</a> six percentage points off Australia’s annual GDP.
But the Government’s <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/04/covid-19-australias-fiscal-response-is-now-among-the-biggest-in-the-world/">unprecedented</a> package of economic support means many firms and households are well-placed to weather a short but severe storm.
Short term pain, long term gain
There’s also enormous economic upside if we eliminate the virus and the economy can more or less return to normal.
Schools and offices could re-open, as could bars, cafes and restaurants. Import and export goods would flow freely. International students could still come to Australia with quarantine and testing, and being COVID-free would mean more would choose Australia over alternative destinations.
Not everything could return to normal. International tourism would take a hit, because tight border controls would be maintained until the pandemic subsides abroad. But international tourism accounts for just 2% of our gross domestic product. And domestic travel would boom.
And while the prospect of 90 days of stage-three restrictions is daunting, it poses fewer economic costs than the alternatives.
Health Minister Greg Hunt has rightly <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200413jxwnp/a-cause-for-real-hope-greg-hunt-officially-confirms-australia-is-flattening-the-curve-20200413">ruled out</a> allowing the virus to spread through the community.
Even with a so-called herd immunity strategy, there is little chance that economic life would return to normal for at least 12 months. Spatial distancing would still be needed to ensure our hospitals were not overwhelmed, and fear of infection would prevent many people from going outside. Many businesses would remain closed.
Adopting a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">Goldilocks</a> strategy – where we try to find just the right balance between allowing some economic activity while keeping infections low – would mean fewer die, but would still be bad for the economy.
While there is hope that widespread use of face masks and improvements in tracking and tracing of the disease might change this – there is no certainty.
Sophisticated contract tracing and surveillance were initially effective in helping countries like Singapore to largely stay open, but they too have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big">since resorted</a> to a lockdown to keep infections under control.
In practice, few sectors currently closed could be reopened in Australia under a Goldilocks strategy.
Modellers at the University of Sydney <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144">estimate</a> that even a 20% reduction in spatial distancing compliance would push rates of transmission back above one (that is, where one infected person on average infects more than one other).
That suggests schools could probably re-open, but many workplaces and university classes may have to stay closed.
As would domestic air travel and much non-essential retail. The political lobbying over which industry should have the privilege to re-open first would also be intense.
And whatever is required to keep infection rates stable would need to remain in place until there was herd immunity or a vaccine – and that probably means for as long as 18 months, assuming either happens.
We’ve a choice of a long or a short shutdown
For 18 months of lighter restrictions to be better for the economy than shutting down for another 2-to-3 months to eliminate the virus, the economic costs of a lighter shutdown need to be six to nine times less damaging to the economy than a severe shutdown.
That would require an almost complete removal of spatial distancing, which isn’t on the table.
If there were extended shutdowns, millions of Australians would come out the other side with significant scarring; many would never work again.
Firms that can endure a three-month shutdown without going bust are unlikely to survive for 12 months without further government support. And the budgetary costs of that support would become much bigger for future generations if extended to 12 months or more.
Relaxing most restrictions without sparking a second round of contagion may be possible in time, but only after making enormous new investments in our ability to identify cases and isolate them quickly.
Economist Paul Romer <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment">argues for</a> universal testing of Americans every two weeks; others <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/-CgXCr8Dz5s8r3E9gijh1uN?domain=americanprogress.org">call</a> for a new digital surveillance state to enforce self-isolation. In each case the technological obstacles are large, and so we should start investing now. Extending the shut down would give us valuable time to prepare if we fail.
It’s commonly assumed that the public health and economic objectives of managing COVID-19 are in conflict. That’s wrong. Eliminating the virus from Australia is the best strategy for our health and for our economy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136488/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-nolan-575166">Jonathan Nolan</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">original article</a>.
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Eradicating the COVID-19 coronavirus is also the best economic strategy

<html><body>
<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The national residential vacancy rate was stable at 2 per cent in March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents a slight decline from a year earlier, when the vacancy rate was 2.1 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only Melbourne and Hobart had higher vacancy rates than a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that properties need to be advertised for 3 weeks before being classified as vacant, there's more likely to be a jump in April as Airbnb operators and other short-term accommodation providers are forced to try more conventional routes for leasing their properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 6-month moving average by capital city is plotted below, not seasonally adjusted:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zJdu7a0K0QU/XpT_eswSm-I/AAAAAAAA1Og/-dMPxJ-RFect1lCV6nMdBke9TtLGEwfkwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1414"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With more short-term units hitting the market the median asking rental price was down in March.</div>
<div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Residential vacancy rates down to 2 percent: Pete Wargent

Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.

Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.

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"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.

Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.

“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.

He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]

After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.

"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."

Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.

"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]

Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.

"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."

For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.

"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."

As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.

"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.

"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]

Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.

"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."

That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.

"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]

Aimee says one moment stood out.

"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."

The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.

Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]

ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;

The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]

For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.

"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."

For Aimee, the change is measured in time.

“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]

Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.

ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135096]

Joel Robinson

From ONE to ERA: Why buyers are choosing GWH again in Newcastle West

Virgate Property Group is preparing to commence construction of Verdé, its new apartment development in Melbourne's Arts Precinct at Southbank, following a strong run of sales that has seen more than half of the project's 173 apartments secured.

Verdé has attracted a broad mix of first home buyers, owner-occupiers upgrading from nearby inner-city suburbs and investors, with younger owner-occupier couples aged between 28 and 45 accounting for the strongest enquiry. Many are already living in Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, Port Melbourne, South Yarra and the CBD.

"Verdé is located in one of the most desirable pockets of southern Melbourne," Blair Property Group Director Darren Blair, who is managing sales at Verdé, said.

"It's within walking distance of the Arts Centre, Royal Botanic Gardens, Albert Park Lake, and Southbank's restaurants and retail. It's a great lifestyle location with strong amenity and liveability, which made it a very attractive choice for the project."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372549]

Virgate was already familiar with the precinct, having previously delivered the successful Domain House development in neighbouring South Melbourne. That experience gave the developer confidence to acquire the Coventry Street site and continue expanding its presence in Melbourne's inner south.

"We had been keeping an eye on the site and the broader precinct for a few months before deciding to move forward with the acquisition," Virgate said.

The project was ultimately secured in 2020 following feasibility studies, planning assessments and due diligence, with the brief centred on delivering "a high-quality, considered design that feels both refined and fit for purpose."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=314259]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bruce-henderson-architects">Bruce Henderson Architects</a>, Verdé comprises 173 one, two and three-bedroom apartments priced from $599,000. The architecture is distinguished by a faceted glass façade that responds to both the site's outlook and Melbourne's changing light conditions.

According to Bruce Henderson Architects, the coloured glazing gives the building a distinctive identity while also providing privacy and solar shading, with residences oriented to capture views across the bay, city skyline and surrounding parklands.

Inside, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/designoffice">DesignOffice</a> has created interiors focused on natural light, efficient planning and enduring materials. Apartments feature engineered oak flooring, natural stone benchtops, floor-to-ceiling glazing and SMEG appliances, while a restrained material palette aims to complement the expansive outlooks rather than compete with them.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4661 project_image_fid=372550]

Resident amenity has also been designed around everyday functionality rather than occasional use. Facilities include a concierge-serviced lobby, residents' lounge with fireplace, library and co-working space, gym, terrace garden with barbecue facilities, ground-floor café, and package delivery management.

The project's location continues to be one of its strongest drawcards. Positioned on Coventry Street, Verdé sits within walking distance of the National Gallery of Victoria, Arts Centre Melbourne, Royal Botanic Gardens and Albert Park Lake, while Southbank's dining precinct, Sturt Street trams and the new ANZAC Station are all nearby. The surrounding education catchment also includes Melbourne Grammar, Melbourne Girls Grammar, Mac.Robertson Girls' High School and several major university campuses.

The sales team says buyers have responded particularly well to the combination of location, design quality and long-term liveability.

"They're responding really positively to the quality of the design, premium resident amenities and the uninterrupted views. Many also appreciate the location and how connected it is to everything they need."

The ability to secure stamp duty savings before completion has also been a key factor for purchasers, alongside the opportunity to personalise finishes ahead of settlement.

With construction set to commence soon and more than half the apartments already sold, Verdé enters its next phase as one of the Arts Precinct's more established apartment developments, offering remaining buyers an opportunity to secure a residence before construction advances further. Expected completion is scheduled for late 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4661]

Virgate's Verdé Southbank moves toward construction as sales fly past halfway stage

Downsizer-focused apartment development Kooyongkoot in Hawthorn has been recognised at the 2026 Better Future Melbourne Design Awards, taking home Gold and Silver awards in two categories.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/kooyongkoot-hawthorn-1-kooyongkoot-road-hawthorn-vic-3122">Kooyongkoot</a>, currently being delivered by developer PQD and designed by Cera Stribley, received Gold in the Interior Design – Proposed category and Silver in the Architecture – Proposed category.

The dual recognition reflects the design approach behind the boutique development on prestigious Kooyongkoot Road, where the focus has been on creating homes for downsizers seeking the space, quality and functionality of a detached house within a low-rise apartment building.

Rather than maximising apartment numbers, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/pqd">PQD</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cera-stribley-architects">Cera Stribley</a> limited the development to just 18 residences, allowing for larger floorplans, greater privacy, generous landscaping and expansive communal spaces.&nbsp;The majority of the apartments also benefit from corner aspects, allowing for dual sources of natural light.

Now around 70 per cent complete and on track for completion in November 2026, Kooyongkoot will comprise a mix of garden residences, ter​race apartments, sub-penthouses, and is crowned by two half-floor penthouses with direct lift access and private rooftop terraces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355297]

The Silver Award for Architecture recognised the way the building responds to its prominent corner position at the ent​rance to Hawthorn's Scotch Hill precinct, one of Melbourne's most established residential neighbourhoods.

Rather than competing with the grand homes that line Kooyongkoot Road, the architectural approach focused on restraint and longevity, using curved brickwork, generous landscaping and carefully considered proportions to integrate with the existing streetscape.

"The form feels fluid and timeless, as though shaped by the landscape itself – architecture that belongs, rather than competes," said Chris Stribley, Co-Founder and Managing Principal of Cera Stribley.

The judging submission also highlighted practical innovations throughout the building, including lift cores servicing only nine homes each, a central landscaped lightcourt designed to bring daylight and ventilation into the building, and fully enclosed private storage rooms with lighting, power and shelving to better accommodate residents transitioning from larger family homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355293]

The Gold Award for Interior Design recognised the project's focus on long-term liveability rather than display-home aesthetics.

According to the awards submission, the interiors were designed from the inside out, prioritising how homes would function over decades of daily use through generous proportions, practical storage, durable natural materials and flexible layouts.

The specification includes natural stone throughout, upgraded acoustic glazing, V-ZUG appliances and fully enclosed storage rooms, alongside an amenity offering focused on wellness, entertainment and everyday convenience.&nbsp;

Residents will have access to a gym and yoga studio, a wellness centre featuring traditional and infrared saunas, a cold therapy shower and treatment room, as well as a residents' lounge and golf simulator/cinema room for entertainment.&nbsp;Kooyongkoot has also considered the everyday convenience of its residents by offering a private carwash and pet wash facilities on site as well as dedicated parcel lockers and oversized fully enclosed storage rooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355303]

The project's attention to detail has already resonated with buyers. Earlier this year, Kooyongkoot recorded one of Boroondara's highest apartment sales when an $8 million penthouse was purchased by a Melbourne CEO downsizing from a nearby family home.

"Every detail feels deliberate, from the overall design down to the smallest touches," the purchaser said.

"The level of quality and refinement is exceptional, but what really sold it was how liveable it felt... It felt like a place where everything had been considered, not just a luxury building."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=102717 project_image_fid=355304]

Sustainability also formed a key part of both award submissions. Kooyongkoot is targeting a minimum 7.5-star NatHERS rating across all residences, supported by passive design principles, high-performance glazing, EV charging infrastructure, water reuse systems and a wellness model focused on lower-energy dry facilities rather than pools and large wet areas.

Located within walking distance of Scotch College, Methodist Ladies' College, Koo​yong Lawn Tennis Club, Aubur​n Village and Camberwell Junction, Kooyongkoot continues to target owner-occupiers looking to remain in Melbourne's inner east without compromising on space or quality. A limited selection of two, three and four-bedroom residences remains available, with prices starting from $1.9 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=102717]

Kooyongkoot wins Gold and Silver at Better Future Melbourne Design Awards

New apartment supply has become increasingly constrained across <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/parramatta-nsw-2150">Parramatta</a> in recent years, with fewer projects progressing through to completion as development conditions have become more challenging.

It makes <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/novm">NOVM</a>'s 2021-completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/the-lennox-parramatta-12-phillip-street-parramatta-nsw-2150">The Lennox</a> one of the most recently completed residential towers on the Parramatta River, and among the newest apartment developments in Sydney's second CBD.

With the project largely completed before the sharp escalation in construction costs and inflation following the pandemic, The Lennox is now offering pricing that would be difficult to replicate in a comparable new development in Parramatta today, or across much of Western Sydney.

The majority of the 413 apartments at The Lennox sold before and shortly after completion. A limited release of the remaining apartments has recently been brought to market by capital partner <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a>, with entry-level pricing from $700,000 and two-bedroom apartments available from under $1 million.

Rising above the Parramatta River at 12 Phillip Street, The Lennox comprises one, two, three and four-bedroom apartments, appealing to first home buyers, young professionals, families, downsizers and interstate investors seeking a completed apartment in one of Australia's fastest-growing economic centres.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=372394]

Rather than positioning Parramatta as an alternative to Sydney's CBD, Equitifund believes the city has reached a point where it stands on its own merits.

"Parramatta is no longer simply an alternative to Sydney CBD, it's becoming a destination in its own right," Equitifund Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said.

"The Lennox captures that evolution with a level of quality and amenity that's difficult to match at its price point."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=953]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/marchese-partners">Marchese Partners</a>, the tower responds directly to its riverfront setting through expansive glazing and open-plan layouts that maximise views across the Parramatta River and city skyline. Interiors feature engineered timber flooring, stone benchtops, stainless steel appliances and floor-to-ceiling glazing, while generous balconies extend the living spaces outdoors.

Marchese Partners says the project was conceived to balance high-quality apartment living with practical, long-term functionality, pairing larger, efficient floorplans with amenities more commonly associated with five-star hotels.

That emphasis continues through the resident facilities, which include a 20-metre rooftop swimming pool, fully equipped gym and wellness spaces, full-time concierge, a residents' lounge, function room, private lifts, secure basement parking and rooftop communal areas overlooking the Parramatta River. Ground-floor boardwalk retail and dining further activate the riverfront and integrate the building into the surrounding public realm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=925]

Australian housing and finance group Equitifund has secured the remaining apartments, believing there are few completed apartment opportunities in Parramatta that offer the same combination of location, amenity and pricing.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett says buyers are increasingly recognising that premium apartment living no longer needs to come with Sydney CBD pricing.

"The Lennox is where aspirational living becomes attainable," Hamblett said.

"Wake to river and mountain views, step into Sydney's Second CBD, and arrive home to resort-calibre amenities, all without the harbour price tag."

Hamblett says owner-occupiers are also attracted by the convenience of having Westfield Parramatta, Church Street's dining precinct, Parramatta Park, Riverside Theatres, Western Sydney University and major transport connections all within walking distance.

"At The Lennox, lifestyle is not an afterthought, it is the foundation."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5743 project_image_fid=5374]

The Lennox places residents within walking distance of Parramatta Square, Westfield Parramatta, Church Street Eat Street, Parramatta Station, the ferry wharf, Light Rail, the future Sydney Metro West, Parramatta Park and CommBank Stadium, reinforcing Parramatta's position as one of Australia's most connected metropolitan centres outside Sydney's CBD.

Equitifund says buyers visiting the display suite consistently comment on the quality of the finishes, generous floorplans, river and skyline views, and the walkability of the location. The project has attracted a broad mix of local professionals, upsizers, downsizers, buyers relocating from Sydney's inner suburbs and interstate investors seeking long-term growth opportunities.

That demand aligns with Parramatta's continued evolution as an economic powerhouse. Equitifund Research and Market Insights specialist John Bekiaris says sustained population growth, infrastructure investment and expanding employment opportunities continue to support long-term housing demand across the city.

"Parramatta has evolved from a satellite city into one of Australia's most important economic centres. Population growth, infrastructure investment and employment are all supporting sustained long-term housing demand."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5743]

The apartment price gap drawing Sydney buyers west

A luxury beachfront apartment at Rainbow Bay has more than doubled in value since it sold off the plan six years ago, setting a new local apartment record in the process.

The three-bedroom apartment in the Flow development on Petrie Street, the first of four new projects locally by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects, has sold for $7.4 million, after originally selling for $3.27 million when the project launched in 2020.

The seventh-floor apartment, comprising 187 sqm of internal living space and a 54 sqm balcony overlooking Froggies Beach and Snapper Rocks, was purchased by a local family.

The transaction was negotiated by Pezet Matheson director Kerry Pezet and equates to more than $30,000 per sqm.

Pezet said the sale reflected the limited opportunities to buy into the boutique beachfront development.

"The sale highlights the rarity of opportunities within the boutique beachfront development, where residences seldom become available," Pezet said.

"Flow is one of the Gold Coast's most tightly held buildings. Buyers from our database move quickly when residences become available, and achieving an off-market sale at $7.4 million demonstrates the depth of demand for property of this calibre."

<img alt="Flow" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c585b206-2130-4eee-a50c-3f27c51a7c70" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-07-06%20at%208.33.25%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=m3pHRDV62Y3fvN.XQuQHq.52ilTWpRLf" />

Flow was the first of four luxury apartment developments delivered by Paul Gedoun's S&amp;S Projects at Rainbow Bay and was completed in 2023.

Positioned on the beachfront overlooking Snapper Rocks, the residence includes three bedrooms, three bathrooms, a powder room and views stretching north along the coastline towards Surfers Paradise.

Pezet Matheson Residential principal Mitchell Lambert said buyers continued to prioritise quality beachfront apartments in tightly held locations.

"Flow Residences offers a rare combination of elevated beachfront positioning, architectural excellence, comprehensive resident amenity and premium finishes, which is exactly what discerning purchasers are seeking," Lambert said.

"The transaction further reinforces Rainbow Bay's reputation as one of Australia's premier coastal lifestyle destinations, where limited supply and growing demand continue to support strong market performance."

Pezet Matheson originally marketed and sold out Flow off the plan, making the latest transaction a return to one of the project's original buyers.

Paul Gedoun is selling his third project, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/radia-rainbow-bay-271-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Radia Rainbow Bay</a>, after recently completing, and selling out, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/esprit-217-227-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Esprit</a>. He has plans for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-s-s-projects-proposes-88-apartment-wellness-tower-at-coolangattas-boundary-street">fourth building</a>, 88 apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/209-213-boundary-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Boundary Street</a>.

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