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GUEST OBSERVATION
The university sector faces cumulative losses of up to A$19 billion over the next three years due to lost international student revenue.
Modelling from the <a href="http://www.mitchellinstitute.org.au/higher-education-funding-report-final-april-2020/">Mitchell Institute</a> shows the next big hit will come mid-year when $2 billion in annual tuition fees is wiped from the sector as international students are unable to travel to Australia to start their courses for second semester.
Such losses are not just a university problem. <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5368.0.55.0032017-18?OpenDocument">ABS data show</a> for every $1 lost in university tuition fees, there is another $1.15 lost in the broader economy due to international student spending.
This means the Australian economy could lose more than $40 billion by 2023 because of reduced numbers of higher education international students.
We estimate each six-monthly intake missed due to closed borders will deliver an annual economic blow comparable to when Australia’s <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/automotive/report">auto manufacturing industry shut down</a> (worth around $5 billion), or the loss of Australia’s $4.1 billion <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/7503.0">annual vegetable crop</a>.
Our modelling shows there will be no quick return to pre-coronavirus normality either, or “<a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-morrison-dropped-the-snap-back-strategy-20200408-p54i3t">snapback</a>” as Prime Minister Scott Morrison described it.
Missed intakes disrupt the pipeline of international students – who usually study for two to three years – so lost revenue continues to impact budgets for several years.
Forecasts tell a disturbing story
We looked at <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/finance-publication">university finance data</a> and <a href="https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/default_annual.aspx">enrolment trends</a>. We modelled two scenarios: one with a relatively quick recovery of international student enrolments beginning in 2021, and the other with an extended travel ban that meant no new international students until 2022.
Both scenarios were disastrous for the higher education sector.
The first showed the university sector losing about $10 billion, though international student revenue would largely return to normal by 2023.
But the second scenario, incorporating extended travel bans, had a longer-lasting effect. With the government announcing the borders are likely to remain closed for “<a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/australians-may-not-be-able-to-travel-overseas-until-2021-due-to-coronavirus/news-story/5b29c380cef922d256fec79b85b261ab">quite some time to come</a>” the worst-case scenario seems more likely.
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328319/original/file-20200416-192762-ts99nc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328319/original/file-20200416-192762-ts99nc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a>
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Over the Easter weekend, the government <a href="https://www.dese.gov.au/covid-19/higher-education/higher-education-faq">announced a package</a> that guarantees funding for the estimated enrolments of domestic students in 2020, despite whether the actual enrolments are fewer than estimated. The package includes about <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-12/government-announces-coronavirus-higher-education-relief-package/12142752">$100 million</a> in waived regulatory fees and funding for an additional 20,000 short online courses in national priority areas such as nursing and IT.
This will fall well short of plugging the gap international students will leave behind.
Based on historical funding rates per student, the government would need to fund another 1.9 million short courses, and universities find the same number of students to enrol, to make up for the projected losses in international student revenue.
Financial position of universities
This modelling was part of the Mitchell Institute’s more in-depth <a href="http://www.mitchellinstitute.org.au/higher-education-funding-report-final-april-2020/">investigation into higher education funding</a>. Our analysis shows total university revenue from international students grew by 137% over the past decade. More than 40% of the sector’s annual student revenue now comes from international students.
International students delivered almost $9 billion in annual revenue to universities in 2018, accounting for around 58% of student revenue at two of Australia’s most prestigious universities, the University of Melbourne and the University of Sydney.
Despite the revenue windfall, growth has been uneven. Group of Eight universities experienced the biggest growth in international students, tripling their international student revenue over the past decade. For other universities, particularly smaller and regional universities, revenue grew at a much slower rate.
Even though some balance sheets are healthy, there is limited ability to weather a protracted downturn. University surpluses were only A$1.5 billion across the whole sector in 2018. The sudden and steep decline in international student enrolments is a significant economic challenge for universities.
The outlook for universities
Australia’s universities have <a href="https://meanjin.com.au/essays/the-australian-idea-of-a-university">relied on international students</a> as a source of growth for a long time. While the amount the universities receive per domestic student has been virtually flat in real terms over the past decade, fees each international student pays have increased by over 50%.
With this revenue stream suddenly threatened, the education experience of domestic students will suffer. Universities will need to make <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/12/australian-universities-warn-covid-19-relief-package-not-enough-to-stop-21000-jobs-losses">deep cuts to staff</a> and courses without further assistance.
This will come at a time when Australia will need its higher education sector as part of any COVID-19 recovery. It is likely demand from domestic students for university places will rise because of workers looking to re-skill and up-skill.
University enrolments from domestic students have increased <a href="https://andrewnorton.net.au/2020/03/25/predicting-student-numbers-during-the-covid-19-recession-2021-could-be-an-unexpected-peak-year/">during previous recessions</a> and the federal education minister has encouraged those who are out of work to undertake study.
Also, one quarter of school leavers usually take a gap year to work or travel. With those plans looking unlikely, there may be an increase in school leavers wanting to study.
But despite the extra funding for 20,000 short courses, universities are unable to respond fully to <a href="https://theconversation.com/demand-driven-funding-for-universities-is-frozen-what-does-this-mean-and-should-the-policy-be-restored-116060">any changes in demand</a>. Caps introduced in 2017 still remain that effectively limit the number of places universities can offer.
Increasing capacity in the tertiary sector by removing the caps on university places would assist universities to deal with the coronavirus crisis.
Universities play an important role in our society, and they will bring future revenue into the economy when international student numbers eventually recover. Australia will need to make further decisions about how much we want to support our universities during this crisis.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136251/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-hurley-342847">Peter Hurley</a>, Policy Fellow, Mitchell Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/victoria-university-1175">Victoria University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian universities could lose $19 billion in the next 3 years.

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Melbourne saw lower clearance rates across all nine sub-regions when compared to the December quarter, according to CoreLogic's Quarterly Auction Market report. 
However, all 9 sub-regions have recorded higher quarterly clearance rates and auction volumes than they did over the March 2019 quarter. 
The Outer East recorded the highest clearance rate this quarter, with 67.3 per cent of the 766 auctions returning a successful result, followed by the Inner South. 
Melbourne’s Inner region had the highest volume of scheduled auctions over the last three months (1,681), followed by the Inner South (1,347).
Overall Melbourne’s clearance rate was recorded at 63.8 per cent across 8,882 auctions over the quarter, compared to 72.8 per cent across 12,870 auctions over the previous quarter and 51.8 per cent across 6,375 auctions over the March 2019 quarter.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/4/14/4_Melbourne.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Melbourne's Outer East recorded the highest clearance rate in Melbourne this quarter: CoreLogic

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Australian residential developer Crown Group has taken the next steps in its first move into the US market, where it plans to develop a US$500 million mixed-use high-rise condominium and hotel tower. 
Crown Group is progressing entitlements with Los Angeles City Hall for the proposed tower, which is earmarked for the southeast corner of South Hill and 11th streets at the convergence of Downtown’s financial, fashion and South Park districts.
Crown Group has formed a joint venture with a Singapore based company called Magnus Property Pte Ltd and one of Indonesia’s biggest property developers, ASRI.
The joint venture group settled on the Downtown site in November 2019.
The 43-storey tower has been designed by renowned Koichi Takada Architects and the project at 1111 Hill Street is expected to be completed in 2024.
The high-rise sections of the building will comprise 319 condominiums with an exclusive residents’ retreat over the top two floors and a façade design that references California’s gigantic ancient redwood trees.
Crown Group’s LA office is also in discussions to perhaps incorporate a 160-key hotel in the low rise of the building.
Crown Group CEO Iwan Sunito said the flourishing Downtown district of LA had experienced a significant transformation over the past decade. This is evidenced by LA Live’s expansion, Warner Music and Spotify establishing offices, headline retailers such as Apple, Vans and Paul Smith launching flagship stores, a bevy of iconic restaurants opening venues and numerous residential, hotel and commercial developments underway.
Crown Group Head of US Development Patrick Caruso said the development would offer an appealing point of difference for buyers in Downtown LA and bring a new version of condominium living to the district.
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Crown Group secures land for its first USA project

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There are signs that the Queensland Government's proposed legislation proposed on rental protections is being reviewed.
The Real Estate Institute of Queensland has launched a campaign against laws set to be put to parliament next Wednesday which will effect 600,000 landlords.
The Palaszczuk Government has promised to consult more widely on its proposed rental protections after thousands of angry letters to the Premier’s office in just one day.
The government and REIQ will meet today.
REIQ chief executive Antonia Mercorella said her organisation was not opposed to a six-month moratorium protecting people from eviction, or from entitled tenants getting a rent reduction.
But she said landlords wanted rent deferrals on the discounted portion of rent, rather than permanent rent waivers.
The REIQ want tenants to provide proof of financial difficulty.
They want a threshold as to how much a tenant must be financially impacted before protection.
“It’s not their fault they can’t make their payments if they’ve lost their job. But it goes too far.
“It throws the property owners to the wolves .... this will break many property investors”.
Ms Mercorella said banks weren’t giving out mortgage pauses as easily as the Government seemed to believe.
Housing Minister Mick de Benni has advised the laws would not be a blanket rent waiver, but allowed property owners and tenants to renegotiate rental agreements for the short term.
“No Queenslander should have to end this lockdown period with no job and an insurmountable debt, through no fault of their own,” he said.
“All of us have a role to play to get through this, including the banks who need to provide mortgage relief for landlords.”
 
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Queensland Government set to ratchet back COVID-19 rental rules

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Expert Observation
Despite the current gains recorded for the March quarter being on track with our base case forecasts, given current events, there is only a single scenario that is still feasible and that is Scenario 4 – a scenario we outlined in our top 4 scenarios for 2020. 
One where the RBA would bring the cash rate to zero and start quantitative easing. It was based on a possibility the tentative trade war truce between the U.S and China would collapse and a ‘take no prisoners’ trade war would break out between the two countries, turning into a global trade war.
The outlook for housing in this scenario was one where the market would eventually stall and start to record price decreases from mid-year onwards. That the rate cuts and money printing would not be able to offset job losses and subsequently, forced sales activity.
Yes, the RBA has now had to introduce quantitative easing. Yes, the cash rate is now just 0.25 per cent. But what we now face economically is a tsunami that dwarfs even a global trade war.
To get a sense of the economic carnage that is underway, check out this gif of U.S jobless claims.
The scale of what we are facing right now on the economic front is something never truly encountered since The Great Depression. And if we don’t manage it well then a depression (a contract in in GDP of greater than 10 per cent) is what we will have – something which I am far more frightened of than catching Covid-19. And believe me, I do not want to catch this virus.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/4/16/SQM%20chart.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
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So, with that in mind, I want to now give a general outlook on what I think are two main scenarios that are really in play this year.
A V-shaped recovery
Let’s be clear, despite the positive Corelogic numbers (dwelling prices rose 2.8 per cent for the quarter) and indeed our asking price indexes, I think housing price expectations have already corrected by five per cent to ten per cent from their very highs. That may not show up in the official numbers as the highs were only briefly obtained during the later stages of February. It is anecdotal only, through my discussions with real estate agents and the sharp fall in clearance rates, which were already occurring prior to the auction ban starting from the 25th of March.
The best case scenario from here for property owners and investors is one where we get to zero new Covid-19 cases before April is over with. And on that front the numbers have been looking promising. I believe it is now a 50 per cent chance that our three major states will record a zero new Covid-19 cases day before the month is over. If we get to that point, the next question begs how long will restrictions be kept? Potentially some restrictions could be lifted in May. And my bet is that when restrictions are eventually lifted, they will be lifted in the reverse order that they were placed on to begin with. As the ban on auctions occurred as one of the last stages (25 March), it is quite feasible that lifting that ban could come sooner than expected.
If we are able to get back to close to normal business by end of May (I certainly don’t think all restrictions will be lifted by that time), then I think confidence in the housing market is going to return. Assisted with all the stimulus announced and the economic damage relatively limited, it would mean a fall in housing prices recorded for the June quarter but a bounce back in the September and December quarters. The net result for the year may come in at our Scenario 4 range or slightly better.
It should not be underestimated how much expenditure has been announced (including RBA money printing via quantitative easing) and how low lending rates are now. 
A borrower with a good credit rating can now expect a variable owner occupier lending rate somewhere between 2.5 per cent to 2.8 per cent. Average capital city gross rental yields are running at about 2.9 per cent for houses and 3.9 per cent for units.
That means property owners on a purely interest expenses verses rental payments scenario could do better owning. And of course it also means that investors may find more cashflow positive properties in our major cities.
That said though, we think there is trouble ahead for the rental market. We will come to that point later.
<h2>The worse-case scenario</h2>
The worse-case scenario is we have a second wave in new virus case counts and it occurs shortly after some restrictions are lifted. Or that new case numbers flatten at current levels but never quite manage to get to zero cases or stay at zero cases. This appears to be the plight of South Korea at the moment.
If this second wave were to occur, we think the housing market will have a much deeper correction.
A second wave of new Covid-19 cases is a great risk. Note, a second wave of Spanish Flue hit Australia in mid-1919 and this occurred just after restrictions were lifted after the first wave, noting hospital numbers (which is the available data we have for time) never actually got to zero on the lull.
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Such a scenario would mean current restrictions would stay with us for longer. Probably more than six months. Or worse, more restrictions added. A second wave of infections may be more deadly as it would potentially occur over the course of the Southern Hemisphere winter. A sharp rise in deaths may result in more panic at the shops and most certainly a new low in confidence.
Damage to the economy would be deeper and longer lasting. Many businesses, including those that are currently on life-support, would not last the distance and will be liquidated.
You see, even with the generous measures announced for small business, it won’t be enough to keep much of the sector alive for half a year. When there is little to zero revenues coming in, month after month, PAYG relief is not enough. Being subsidised to cover employee wages at $1,500 a fortnight is not enough. Neither is a $10,000 cash grant for most. And forget about asking small business to go into debt. Most of them, particularly in retail, hospitality and tourism, will refuse to do so. And so job creation would occur at a far slower rate when a recovery would eventually return.
With the surging and sustained unemployment rate, the banks could start to get nervous on mortgages. Potentially, after the six-month hiatus, banks may be backed into a corner where they are forced to repossession on defaulted housing loans. Now I believe the RBA and/or the Federal Government would come to the rescue to enable banks to avoid a mass repossession event. Let’s keep in mind that in 2008, the banks could have pulled the trigger on the commercial property sector. Many owners at the time were in breach of lending covenants. The banks, by and large, chose not to pull that trigger. Mainly for their own self-preservation, as doing so would have created a cascading affect that would have smashed their balance sheets.
So I am not convinced we will see a lot of forced sales activity, even in this bleaker scenario. All the same, there will be many property owners who will want to sell out if this crisis goes on for six months or more. They will see the falls in dwelling prices over the course of the June quarter. And they will be very protective of what is left of their net wealth.
The buy side of the property equation would be hit very hard as it is being hit hard now. But far worse than what we had in 2018 or indeed 2008.
You see it’s not just the loss of employees representing many first home buyers, but, as mentioned above it is also the potential wipe out of many thousands of small business owners, who themselves employ nearly 50 per cent of the total workforce. Small business owners actually represent a very large component of the home buyer market. As at the 2016 Census there were over two million small businesses.
So this is very much a buy side issue in my view. Anyone that is worried they will lose their job or their business, won’t be seriously thinking of taking out a home loan to buy into the property market.
Let’s also remind ourselves that our international border is closed to most except for permanent residents, citizens and some temporary visa holders. And I believe it will remain closed for many months to come. So underlying demand for housing, which has been predominantly driven by net overseas migration has now stalled for this year. This will be a different experience to the Spanish Flu of 1919, whereby population growth still expanded at a very strong rate (1.9 per cent for 2019) due to our soldiers returning home as well as the settling of European refuges.
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Up to a 30 per cent peak to trough price decline cannot be ruled out.
In this more bleaker scenario, a 30 per cent decline in dwelling prices would be on the cards. Note, I have not modelled this out, other than taking elements such as previous work on the relationship between unemployment and the housing market. Modelling in this environment is almost impossible. It is simply based on my experience and study. The most overvalued cities would be hit the hardest, that being Sydney and Melbourne. Other cities should do better than a 30 per cent correction given their relative fair value. Now some of you will note that during The Great Depression, the Australian housing market did not correct by this magnitude. Nor, during the Spanish plague of 1919 did the Australian housing market record such a correction. However, those two markets were not laden with the debt burden our current housing market has. Not even close. The only market that comes close in Australia was the massive boom/bust of the 1890s.
Of course, it should be noted that period was also laden by a very dodgy and nearly entirely unregulated banking sector.
Either way, the rental market is in trouble.
Overall, a stalling in underlying demand for accommodation driven by near zero migration, combined with a reduction in existing tenancy demand (as a result of job losses) plus a very likely increase in supply from empty AirBNB accommodation will likely mean we can now expect a rise in rental vacancies over this year. Previously the forecast was for a gentle reduction in vacancies in 2020 as dwelling completions were (and still are) due to fall.
On our estimates and other estimates, there are some 120,000+ properties nationwide at any point in time being used for short term accommodation via websites such as airbnb. And on our latest numbers for February,there were some 68,000 vacant rental properties available for normal leasing.
I can’t tell you how many property owners are going to switch back to longer term leasing but there will be a number, especially if this plays out for longer. This is not a scenario here. This is our view. Our view is that rental vacancy rates are going to rise sharply over the short term. I think we can expect the rate to rise from the current 2.0 per cent to north of 2.5 per cent and perhaps north of 3.0 per cent. That may not sound like much to you but if we do hit 3.0 per cent that would be a record high on our index which goes back to 2005. Rents would fall as a result. Perhaps our weekly asking rents index is already revealing some weakness with national asking rents for houses down by 0.9 per cent for the month and 0.3 per cent down for units.
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The weakness in the rental market will probably put off many would-be property investors over 2020 creating more issues on the buy side of the market.
So what is it going to be? - Scenario 1, Scenario 2 or another scenario?
The next 30 days will likely tell the story. It is very hard to judge it. Like everyone else I am watching the new case numbers closely.
Let me tell you. I don’t want Scenario 2 to play out. A depression would create massive economic misery. Suicides will rise, so will crime.
There is also the possibility we muddle through somewhere between the two scenarios. A world where daily new virus cases don’t quite get to zero but there isn’t a second wave. Restrictions lifted very gradually over many months. Eventually, a vaccine is produced and distributed in 2021. We would need to see what is lifted and at what point in time to work out the impact on the housing market. Regardless, rents will still be hit for simply the fact that the international border will still remain closed.
LOUIS CHRISTOPHER is the CEO of SQM Research
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Looking back at forecasts made in October last year: Louis Christopher

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Realestate.com.au has today announced a new record audience of 10.7 million people for March.
Despite the real estate industry being forced to operate under new guidelines in order to minimise the spread of COVID-19.
The January figure was also a record with a unique audience of 9.3 million across the realestate.com.au platform, approximately three times the number of average monthly visits compared to its nearest competitor, Domain.
Given the lockdown, Realestate.com.au recently launched Digital Inspections with over 44,000 realestate.com.au Buy and Rent listings now featuring digital video tours.
Compared to early March, views of digital video tours are up 96 per cent and views of 3D tours are up 327 per cent.
REA Group Chief Sales Officer Kul Singh said, "REA has been doing everything it can to support the property market through these unprecented times and to deliver ongoing value to customers by providing access to Australia’s largest network of property seekers."
Barry Plant Director and Senior Auctioneer, James Hatzimoisis said new digital features are helping deliver more qualified leads.
“We’re finding that the enquiries we’re currently getting are much more qualified. People may still want to privately inspect a property before they buy it, but features like Digital Inspections make it so much easier for them to make a decision.”
Jellis Craig Armadale Head of Property Management, Sam Nokes said in the last fortnight he has seen an increase in leases signed without tenants physically inspecting the property and expects this trend to continue.
“We have offered virtual inspections for about three years and landlords have only very recently become more willing to lease to tenants who haven’t completed a physical inspection. At the moment people want to visit as few properties as possible and Digital Inspections allow tenants to pre-screen a property,” Sam said.
“We’re also finding that most prospective tenants who view a Digital Inspection and go on to a physical inspection, will then submit an application to lease the property.”
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Record realestate.com.au audience shows unquenched property thirst

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The 538 acre Woolangubra near Yass sold under the hammer last week for $375,000 over reserve.
Set to hold part of the Bango wind farm, the hotly contested green energy acreage sold for $1.6 million.
The winning bidders, Kerry and Roger Rayner also own the adjacent land and plan to continue expanding their sheep operation to grow their existing Merino and Dorset sheep numbers.
The online auction was held at the New South Wales head office studio and called by Ray White New South Wales CEO and auctioneer Jason Andrew.
Drawing 11 registered bidders, the auction capped off a campaign that Ray White Yass | Canberra selling agent Dominic Johns said attracted strong interest from start to finish.
“We had a good level of interest the whole way through the campaign especially with it being such a unique property, there were three or four different private inspections each week which was excellent,” Mr Johns said.
Ray White Yass Canberra agent George Southwell believed it could be the first wind farm that has ever been sold publicly in Australia.
“I haven’t been able to find another wind farm sale like it in Australia so I am certain it could potentially be the first,” Mr Southwell said.
 
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540 acre Woolangubra sold in fully online auction

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Temporary changes to the foreign investment review framework have created unintended consequences for funds managers that could create additional headwinds for struggling businesses at a time when equity and debt funding is desperately needed to drive the Australian economy.
Executive Chairman of Atlas Advisors Australia, Guy Hedley said the Australian Government’s recent reform, requiring all foreign investment be scrutinized by the Foreign Investment Review Board, has unintentionally captured some managed funds and could reduce interest in Australia as an investment destination at a time when the nation has a desperate need for capital.
“The reforms importantly aim to safeguard the national interest against opportunism amidst the COVID-19 crisis,” Mr Hedley said.
“However, it also creates needless complications for managed funds that invest broadly across different industries and sectors on behalf investors in areas that require capital support.
“In today’s fast-moving business environment, where innovation is key to survival, enterprise cannot wait unreasonably long periods of time for the delivery of outcomes.”
Mr Hedley said that by unintentionally adding some categories of managed funds to the non- FIRB exemption rules could have the effect of stymieing business opportunities that are critical to drive economic growth both now and in the future.
“These measures will leave thousands of Australian startups, emerging, listed and private companies stranded without critical funds needed to drive business continuity and change,” he said.
“Many of these companies will inevitably collapse, forgoing billions of dollars’ worth of tax and employment generating business opportunities.”
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New temporary FIRB rules hurt the economic recovery

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GUEST OBSERVER
Less than a month after restrictions first took effect, Australia appears to have contained the spread of COVID-19 more successfully than we could have possibly imagined.
But we’ve done so at unimaginable cost: large swathes of the economy have been shut down, leaving the livelihoods of millions of Australians on hold indefinitely. With new cases now on the decline, the conversation at today’s National Cabinet meeting will turn to what can reopen, and when.
But the economic costs of re-opening prematurely could be enormous.
The <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">least costly</a> economic strategy is eliminating COVID-19 from Australia altogether. Growing epidemiological evidence suggests it may be possible for us to eliminate coronavirus within the next two to three months.
New Zealand is pursuing such a strategy.
Australia’s state and territory governments should <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/covid-19-there-are-only-two-options-from-here-one-is-more-deadly/">explicitly declare</a> that they want to eliminate the virus, and maintain harsh lockdown restrictions until new cases are down to zero or close to it.
And in the meantime we’ll accrue invaluable intelligence from other countries about how best to emerge from lockdowns, and plan accordingly.
There’s no doubt this strategy would have big short-term economic costs.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development estimates that severe shutdowns like our level-three restrictions wipe out almost a quarter of economic activity, costing Australia’s economy about 2% of annual GDP for each month they remain in place.
This means a three-month shutdown would <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-oecd-estimates-suggest-a-22-hit-to-australias-economy-135026">shave</a> six percentage points off Australia’s annual GDP.
But the Government’s <a href="https://blog.grattan.edu.au/2020/04/covid-19-australias-fiscal-response-is-now-among-the-biggest-in-the-world/">unprecedented</a> package of economic support means many firms and households are well-placed to weather a short but severe storm.
Short term pain, long term gain
There’s also enormous economic upside if we eliminate the virus and the economy can more or less return to normal.
Schools and offices could re-open, as could bars, cafes and restaurants. Import and export goods would flow freely. International students could still come to Australia with quarantine and testing, and being COVID-free would mean more would choose Australia over alternative destinations.
Not everything could return to normal. International tourism would take a hit, because tight border controls would be maintained until the pandemic subsides abroad. But international tourism accounts for just 2% of our gross domestic product. And domestic travel would boom.
And while the prospect of 90 days of stage-three restrictions is daunting, it poses fewer economic costs than the alternatives.
Health Minister Greg Hunt has rightly <a href="https://10daily.com.au/news/politics/a200413jxwnp/a-cause-for-real-hope-greg-hunt-officially-confirms-australia-is-flattening-the-curve-20200413">ruled out</a> allowing the virus to spread through the community.
Even with a so-called herd immunity strategy, there is little chance that economic life would return to normal for at least 12 months. Spatial distancing would still be needed to ensure our hospitals were not overwhelmed, and fear of infection would prevent many people from going outside. Many businesses would remain closed.
Adopting a <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/australias-endgame-must-be-total-elimination-of-covid-19/">Goldilocks</a> strategy – where we try to find just the right balance between allowing some economic activity while keeping infections low – would mean fewer die, but would still be bad for the economy.
While there is hope that widespread use of face masks and improvements in tracking and tracing of the disease might change this – there is no certainty.
Sophisticated contract tracing and surveillance were initially effective in helping countries like Singapore to largely stay open, but they too have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/upshot/coronavirus-singapore-thinking-big">since resorted</a> to a lockdown to keep infections under control.
In practice, few sectors currently closed could be reopened in Australia under a Goldilocks strategy.
Modellers at the University of Sydney <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144">estimate</a> that even a 20% reduction in spatial distancing compliance would push rates of transmission back above one (that is, where one infected person on average infects more than one other).
That suggests schools could probably re-open, but many workplaces and university classes may have to stay closed.
As would domestic air travel and much non-essential retail. The political lobbying over which industry should have the privilege to re-open first would also be intense.
And whatever is required to keep infection rates stable would need to remain in place until there was herd immunity or a vaccine – and that probably means for as long as 18 months, assuming either happens.
We’ve a choice of a long or a short shutdown
For 18 months of lighter restrictions to be better for the economy than shutting down for another 2-to-3 months to eliminate the virus, the economic costs of a lighter shutdown need to be six to nine times less damaging to the economy than a severe shutdown.
That would require an almost complete removal of spatial distancing, which isn’t on the table.
If there were extended shutdowns, millions of Australians would come out the other side with significant scarring; many would never work again.
Firms that can endure a three-month shutdown without going bust are unlikely to survive for 12 months without further government support. And the budgetary costs of that support would become much bigger for future generations if extended to 12 months or more.
Relaxing most restrictions without sparking a second round of contagion may be possible in time, but only after making enormous new investments in our ability to identify cases and isolate them quickly.
Economist Paul Romer <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment">argues for</a> universal testing of Americans every two weeks; others <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/-CgXCr8Dz5s8r3E9gijh1uN?domain=americanprogress.org">call</a> for a new digital surveillance state to enforce self-isolation. In each case the technological obstacles are large, and so we should start investing now. Extending the shut down would give us valuable time to prepare if we fail.
It’s commonly assumed that the public health and economic objectives of managing COVID-19 are in conflict. That’s wrong. Eliminating the virus from Australia is the best strategy for our health and for our economy.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136488/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-coates-154644">Brendan Coates</a>, Program Director, Household Finances, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-nolan-575166">Jonathan Nolan</a>, Associate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/grattan-institute-1168">Grattan Institute</a>
This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/eradicating-the-covid-19-coronavirus-is-also-the-best-economic-strategy-136488">original article</a>.
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Eradicating the COVID-19 coronavirus is also the best economic strategy

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The national residential vacancy rate was stable at 2 per cent in March.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This represents a slight decline from a year earlier, when the vacancy rate was 2.1 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Only Melbourne and Hobart had higher vacancy rates than a year earlier. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Given that properties need to be advertised for 3 weeks before being classified as vacant, there's more likely to be a jump in April as Airbnb operators and other short-term accommodation providers are forced to try more conventional routes for leasing their properties.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The 6-month moving average by capital city is plotted below, not seasonally adjusted:</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zJdu7a0K0QU/XpT_eswSm-I/AAAAAAAA1Og/-dMPxJ-RFect1lCV6nMdBke9TtLGEwfkwCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/SQM1.jpg" width="640" height="364" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1414"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With more short-term units hitting the market the median asking rental price was down in March.</div>
<div>
 PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
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Residential vacancy rates down to 2 percent: Pete Wargent

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.

The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.

Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.

<img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.

The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.

The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”

Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.

“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”

Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.

“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”

<img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" />

&nbsp;

The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.

Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.

The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.

The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.

<section data-scroll-anchor="false" data-testid="conversation-turn-4" data-turn="assistant" data-turn-id="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" data-turn-id-container="request-WEB:84a2af5e-d7cf-4ddf-922a-f4d44d6c6caa-1" dir="auto">
The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.
</section>

Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;

The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.

The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.

As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.

<img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" />

The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.

An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;

The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.

The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;

It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.

Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.

“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.

“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;

Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.

“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.

“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”

Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

Staff reporter

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