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GUEST OBSERVATION
Transport models are often singled out as a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0967070X16306606" target="_blank">barrier</a> to providing more sustainable and equitable transport services. However, abandoning transport models would <a href="https://transportfutures.co/in-defence-of-predict-and-provide-1b990a6566fa" target="_blank">most likely weaken planning</a>, not enhance it. But getting the best out of such modelling requires transparency to overcome the increasing problem of its misuse to justify predetermined political decisions.
On the 50th anniversary of the Melbourne Transportation Plan, we review the role of transport modelling as a planning tool. What are models now telling us about the future of Australian cities?
From rational planning …
The 1969 Melbourne Transportation Plan was based on the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0739456X9001000105" target="_blank">Chicago Area Transportation Plan</a>, an approach that other Australian cities then adopted. A feature was the extensive collection of travel data, often for the first time. Newly available computer models were then used to predict travel demand, which the plan sought to accommodate.
This is often referred to as the “rational” or “predict and provide” approach to transport planning.
By today’s standards, the goals of the ’69 plan sound like a utopian dream of free-flowing freeways and frequent, comfortable public transport services. It assumed a population living in detached housing on quarter-acre blocks.
Melbourne’s “solution”, and that of many other cities, was to build an extensive freeway network. The car took over from the rail system as the primary mode of travel.
Today’s reality shows this has been no solution to the seemingly intractable problems of congestion and overcrowding, coupled with inequitable access to services, jobs and other opportunities.
… to political mandates
In response, it seems Australian transport agencies have abandoned the preparation of comprehensive transport plans. Gone are the days of foreshadowing projects decades into the future, with land for these road and rail projects being reserved in the planning scheme.
We <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-hardly-ever-trust-big-transport-announcements-heres-how-politicians-get-it-right-101246" target="_blank">operate in an era where political mandates</a> have replaced comprehensive planning. Transport models are no longer used to plan for the future. Instead, they are used to justify the most recent announcement.
The nexus between transport models and the justification of controversial projects results in much critical commentary. The models become guilty by association.
It is true model outputs are far from infallible. One problem is that models depend on key input assumptions such as future population. The ’69 plan, for example, assumed Melbourne would reach a population of 3.7 million by 1985, but this didn’t occur until 20 years later.
The early models also <a href="https://www.audit.vic.gov.au/report/managing-traffic-congestion?section=" target="_blank">ignored the problem of induced demand</a> – the tendency of new transport infrastructure itself to generate additional demand.
Aside from the inherent challenge of predicting the future, models suffer from the problem of “strategic misrepresentation” – more simply, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/833099" target="_blank">lying</a>. This can occur when models are called upon to justify a predetermined political decision.
The best safeguard against such behaviour is transparency. This is achieved by making the detailed modelling results available for peer review. Under these conditions, models can provide useful planning intelligence.
More of the same is a poor plan
A recent Infrastructure Australia <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/publications/urban-transport-crowding-and-congestion" target="_blank">report</a> predicts worsening road congestion and public transport crowding over the coming decades in all Australian capitals. These predictions are the result of the lack of endorsed strategies to deal with population growth coupled with Australia’s dependence on the private motor vehicle. Indeed, the report highlights many examples where major new road projects will worsen congestion by encouraging more car use.
A lesson from the past 50 years is that Australia’s major capitals occupy large areas by world standards and are ill suited to a transport strategy based on <a href="https://chartingtransport.com/2011/08/20/whats-happening-with-car-occupancy/" target="_blank">low-occupancy vehicles</a>. It isn’t surprising “Europeanesque” inner suburbs based around walking, cycling and public transport are increasingly <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/press-room/2018/citypulse-melbourne" target="_blank">valued</a> as preferred places to live.
Can modelling be blamed for our collective failure to devise a realistic plan to accommodate our cities’ growing populations? At what point does the reality of everlasting congestion trump predictions of incremental travel time savings?
US President Dwight Eisenhower once <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-the-national-defense-executive-reserve-conference" target="_blank">said</a>: “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” Intuitively we know the pressure of population growth and the climate emergency demand a considered response. The recent work of Infrastructure Australia provides a prediction of the scale of this challenge.
We urgently need a sensible discussion about developing a realistic plan to deal with this challenge. Doing more of the same, as we have done over the past 50 years, doesn’t sound like a solution to us.
A public event to mark the 50th anniversary of the Melbourne Transportation Plan will be held on December 12 2019, hosted by RMIT University and supported by Swinburne University, Monash University and the University of Melbourne – <a href="https://cur.org.au/events/looking-back-and-going-forward-the-melbourne-transport-plan-50-years-on/">details here</a>.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127720/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Eric Keys, PhD Researcher, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University.
Chris De Gruyter, Vice-Chancellor's Research Fellow, RMIT University.
Graham Currie, Professor of Public Transport, Director Public Transport Research Group, Director Monash Infrastructure, Adjunct Professor, Monash Art Design and Architecture, Monash University.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-problem-with-transport-models-is-political-abuse-not-their-use-in-planning-127720">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

The problem with transport models is political abuse, not their use in planning

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The personal insolvency regulator, the Australian Financial Security Authority (AFSA), has identified and proven over $4 million of fraud, according to a new report released today.  
The Personal Insolvency Compliance Report, available now on the AFSA website, outlines AFSA’s compliance, regulatory and enforcement activities across the 2018-19 financial year.  
Hamish McCormick, Chief Executive of AFSA and Inspector-General in Bankruptcy, said the annual Personal Insolvency Compliance Report provides insight into the regulation of Australia’s personal insolvency system.
“AFSA is working to be both a firm and a fair regulator,” McCormick said.
“We undertake regulatory and compliance work to ensure that the personal insolvency system is equitable, and that all participants are meeting their obligations.
“Overall, we aim to provide the community with a personal insolvency system that they can have confidence in.”
McCormick highlighted some of the report’s key findings – including complaints against registered trustees and criminal prosecutions.
“In 2018-19, we received nearly 2,000 referrals of alleged misconduct,” McCormick said.
“We analysed each referral and found that 744 warranted further investigation. We referred 115 of these matters to the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.
“In total, 96 individuals were prosecuted for offences under the Bankruptcy Act. Our prosecutions attracted wide-ranging penalties, from fines to imprisonment.
“Pleasingly the number of prosecutions decreased in 2018-19, down from 137 in the previous year. The overall value of proven fraud also dropped, down from $5.5 million in 2017-18 to $4.6 million.”
Complaints about registered trustees, and the Commonwealth Government’s Official Trustee, both increased in 2018-19.
“In 2018-19 we received 296 complaints about practitioners, up from 257 the year prior. Similarly, complaints about the Official Trustee also rose – we received 48 compared to 10 in 2017-18.
“However, only nine complaints about registered trustees were found to be justified. And only one complaint about the Official Trustee was justified.”
The report noted that the conduct of untrustworthy bankruptcy advisers remains a potential threat to community confidence in the personal insolvency system.
In 2018-19, AFSA made a concerted effort to disrupt the activities of untrustworthy advisers, who provide dodgy advice to people at a time when they are in financial difficulty and vulnerable.
“In 2018-19, we worked closely with registered trustees and industry bodies to identify and disrupt untrustworthy advisers,” McCormick said.
“During the year we finalised three prosecutions involving untrustworthy advisers, and one more is still in progress.
“We will continue to target untrustworthy advisers in an effort to protect the integrity of the personal insolvency system. And where appropriate, we will refer matters to the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions for action.”
The full report is available now on the <a href="https://protect-au.mimecast.com/s/K-fmCvl1lzI0l6WRhQWS8P?domain=news.afsa.gov.au" target="_blank">AFSA website</a>.
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Bankruptcy fraud on AFSA agenda with more than $4 million of frauds identified 

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Wodonga has fallen from the peak of the market for houses in December, joining the Central Coast, according to Herron Todd White (HTW). 
The valuation firm suggests that the six other locations at their peak are Albury, Bathurst, Canberra, Dubbo, Tamworth and the Sunshine Coast. No other market analysed is approaching the peak.
Kalgoorlie remained as a declining market while South West WA, joined Broome and Geraldton as they approach the bottom of the market.
There were four additions to the markets who have been deemed as at their lowest point, Adelaide, Adelaide Hills, Barossa Valley and the Southern Highlands joined Darwin, Perth and Towoomba, among others.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/9/HTW%20House%20Clock%20DEC%202019.JPG" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/9/HTW%20House%20Clock%20DEC%202019.JPG" alt="">
Lismore, Ballina/Byron Bay, Coffs Harbour and Bundaberg have all begun their recovery, joining 13 other locations including capital cities like Brisbane and Sydney.
There were no additions to the rising house markets with all nine locations holding steady over the month.
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Wodonga has fallen from the peak of house market: HTW Clock

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Westpac can expect a bumper turnout of shareholders at its annual general meeting in Sydney on Thursday, many of them angry at its alleged role in <a href="https://www.austrac.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-11/20191120%20Westpac%20Concise%20Statement%20FILED%2019008953.pdf" target="_blank">facilitating child exploitation</a> in the Philippines, its 23 million alleged breaches of anti-money-laundering laws, and its initial ritualistic response to the allegations.
This included donating <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/media_release_response_plan.pdf" target="_blank">A$18 million</a> to an anti sexual exploitation charity, followed by the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20191126/pdf/44by46ysjf6w06.pdf" target="_blank">departure of its chief executive</a> and the foreshadowed departure of its chairman later in the year.
Some of those shareholders will be clutching the bank’s <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/ic/2019_Westpac_Group_Full_Year_Financials.pdf" target="_blank">154-page financial statement</a>. They’ll need to understand it to ask questions about Westpac’s financial performance.
Back at the start of the 2000s, Westpac’s financial statement was only <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/ic/res0900.pdf" target="_blank">35 pages</a>.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305578/original/file-20191206-183400-xd8mu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305578/original/file-20191206-183400-xd8mu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
 ‘Help when it matters’. <a class="source" href="https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/ic/2019_Westpac_Group_Full_Year_Financials.pdf" target="_blank">Westpac's 154 page statement of financial results.</a>
Much of what’s been added to statements such as Westpac’s has been in response to the threat of litigation. Companies making false or misleading disclosures risk class actions. It’s safer to include more rather than less, even if it makes the total hard to navigate.
Australia has just had its <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-australias-first-securities-class-action-judgment-sort-of-cleared-myer-125925" target="_blank">first class action judgement</a>, after earlier cases that had been settled out of court. The United States has had many.
My own research with colleagues in the United States finds that caution in the face of the threat of litigation has made financial reports <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3478994" target="_blank">increasingly less readable</a> over time.
How might litigation make reports harder to read?
Firms can be sued for making misleading disclosures. This happens most often where shareholders allege that the firm failed to disclose all relevant information, or where it has failed to meet projections.
After such class actions, firms can face increasing difficulties with customers, suppliers and lenders, being seen as less credible. Managers face <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2011.09.001" target="_blank">pay cuts and termination</a>.
One way to head off such class actions is to make disclosures more detailed.
Increasing detail enables firms to add caveats, footnotes and nuance, conveying uncertainty – the consequence of which is that their reports are less clear.
How we teased out the link
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305596/original/file-20191206-90609-eomrtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305596/original/file-20191206-90609-eomrtx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
<a class="source" href="http://gunning-fog-index.com/" target="_blank">The Gunning Fog Index for this article</a>
My coauthors and I examined 96,000 US annual reports issued between 1993 to 2013.
We also collected data on class actions in relation to reports for those years.
One of the best readability metrics is the so-called <a href="http://gunning-fog-index.com/" target="_blank">fog index</a>, which measures the number of syllables per word and words per sentence in order to provide a measure of the number of years of education needed to read a statement.
It says this article needs the best part of 15 years.
We also used other indexes including the so-called <a href="http://stylewriter-usa.com/stylewriter-editing-readability.php" target="_blank">bog index</a> which scores documents on word choice and sentence structure.
We captured firms’ tendency to avoid declarative statements by calculating the proportion of words that were “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3478994" target="_blank">uncertain</a>”, and measured their tendency to address specific legal threats by calculating the proportion of words that were legal in nature, both of which were subjective exercises.
What we found
We found litigation risk encouraged firms to take steps that reduced the readability of their financial reports.
After firms had experienced a class action, their readability metrics worsened significantly. This was even the case several years after that class action, suggesting a long-lasting change.
We found if a chief executive had experienced a class action at one job, their reports were likely to be less readable in subsequent jobs, strongly suggesting that litigation drove hard to read reports rather than the other way round.
We also found:
<ul>
<li>
litigation experience increased the size and volume of firms’ disclosures. While worsening readability, this at least had the virtue of increasing thoroughness
</li>
<li>
litigation experience was associated with using more complex words and more words per sentence. This implies firms add more detail and nuance to their disclosures, potentially increasing their accuracy
</li>
<li>
after litigation, firms used more uncertain words in their reports. This suggests they avoid declaratory statements in an attempt to better reflect the risk and uncertainty associated with projections
</li>
<li>
following litigation, firms use more legalistic terms. This implies they attempt to preempt legal action by specifically addressing potential legal issues.
</li>
</ul>
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has expressed concern over what it calls “<a href="https://asic.gov.au/about-asic/news-centre/find-a-media-release/2019-releases/19-279mr-asic-calls-time-on-disclosure-reliance/" target="_blank">sludge</a>” in reports that covers bases but leaves readers uninformed.
It says over-reliance on disclosure “in some ways proved an enabler” of the poor conduct revealed by the banking royal commission.
Our work and the work of ASIC suggests much needs to happen to make reports both accurate and readable.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127102/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Mark Humphery-Jenner, Associate Professor of Finance, UNSW.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/litigation-is-the-real-reason-financial-reports-are-becoming-harder-to-read-127102" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Litigation is the real reason financial reports are becoming harder to read

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Unit markets across Australia saw no significant movement over the past month, according to property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW).
The valuation firm's national property clock for December found that five locations remained at the peak of the market cycle for units.
Unit markets in Albury, Sunshine Coast, Wodonga, Tamworth and Bathurst remained at the peak. Bathurst has sat at the peak the longest.
No other markets are approaching the peak while a number of markets including Hobart, Launceston and Mildura have continued rising.
Lismore, Mackay, Melbourne, Newcastle, Illawarra, Townsville, Cairns and Geelong, among others are still just in the beginnings of a recovery.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/9/HTW%20Unit%20Clock%20DEC%202019.JPG" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/9/HTW%20Unit%20Clock%20DEC%202019.JPG" alt="">
Canberra, Perth, Kalgoorlie and the Southern Tablelands continued declining while the Central Coast remains at the start of a decline.
Broome, Geraldton and South West WA have still yet to hit rock bottom, unlike Darwin, Adelaide, Brisbane and Sydney, which according to HTW are all at the bottom of the unit market
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Unit markets held steady over the month with no movement: HTW Clock

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Nine markets, the most recent being Sydney, Lismore and the Gold Coast have all reached the peak of the office market, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White latest report.
In their December National Property Clock for the office market, Herron Todd White found Ballina/Byron Bay, Coffs Harbour, Dubbo, South East NSW and the Sunshine Coast have been at the peak of the office market at least a month now.
The Illawarra office market has begun approaching it's peak as well.
Brisbane is now classified as a rising market, joining Ballarat.
Office markets that are just beginning their recovery this month Geelong and Newcastle who have joined that likes of Adelaide and Canberra, markets where a recovery as already begun.
Three capital cities remained in a bottom of the market position, Darwin, Perth and Hobart.
They are joined by Cairns, Launceston, Mackay, and Townsville, among others.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/12/9/HTW%20Office%20Clock%20Decembe%202019.JPG" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/9/HTW%20Office%20Clock%20Decembe%202019.JPG" alt="">
Alice Springs and Ecucha have continued to decline while the Mid North Coast is still at the beginning of its fall.
Rockhampton has joined Gladstone and South West WA as they approach the bottom of the market.
"It should come as no surprise that there was a mixed bag of results for the office market in 2019," the HTW report noted.
"Many big-city investors were looking to shore up cash flow by concentrating on commercial stock, which led to incredibly strong prices, but in less-populated areas, the outcomes were a bit more subdued."
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Sydney joins Melbourne as a peak office property market: HTW December Office Clock

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<a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/March/er20190312BullAustralianBusinessConditionsFeb.pdf">E</a>XPERT OBSERVER
As the 2019 year draws towards a close, conditions in the Australian economy remain weak. Policy stimulus is struggling to gain traction. The NAB business survey for November reports that business conditions have stabilised at low levels.
The survey was conducted from November 19 to 29. Given this timing, the survey is unlikely to have fully captured the recent “sales” - with Black Friday falling on November 29 and Cyber Monday on December 2.
The business conditions index was unchanged at +4, a below average reading. The index has moved broadly sideways since April, after tumbling from +19 over the first half of 2018.
Business confidence fell by 2pts to 0, reversing the 2pt lift in October. Confidence rallied in May, after the Federal election, but the bounce was short-lived. The lack of confidence is understandable in this challenging environment - with weak domestic sales and a slowing global economy, with heightened uncertainty around international trade.
The private business surveys correctly foreshadowed the sharp loss of momentum in the Australian economy from mid-2018, a shift that was led by the home building cycle turning from boom-to-bust, as well as by consumers.
Australia’s September quarter economic report card was another disappointing one - confirming feeble and uneven growth, at 1.7% for the year. The private sector economy is in recession, with private demand contracting by 0.3% in the quarter and declining by 0.4% over the year.
The NAB survey suggests that weak conditions have extended into the December quarter and there is a lack of momentum heading into 2020.
As to business conditions detail for November: trading conditions fell by 1pt to +6; profitability improved but remained weak, up 3pts to +3; and employment conditions moved sideways, at +4.
The survey suggests that employment conditions at this level are consistent with job gains averaging 18k per month near-term (down a little from the 20k per month average for the 2019 year to date).
We note that recently the official jobs data has fallen into line with the more downbeat forward indicators from the private business surveys to be consistent with the sluggish output results. The six month annualised pace of jobs growth has slowed to 1.6%, down from 2.5% in March.
Forward orders are weak, after a one-off gain in October, falling by 5pts to -2.
By industry, while aggregate business conditions have stabilised there has been some shift in the mix. The goods sectors have tended to weaken further since April, while services have improved somewhat. The consumer sectors have lifted off their lows, but retail is still as weak levels.
By state, weakness in trend business conditions is broadly based. Of note, the survey reports that conditions have eased in recent months in WA, mirroring the trend in the mining sector, as commodity prices moderate. Over the past three months, conditions in Qld are reportedly the softest of any of the states.
Read full report <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/December/er20191210BullAustralianBusinessConditions2019Nov.pdf">'Australian business conditions November' (PDF 201kb)</a>
ANDREW HANLAN is a senior economist for Westpac 
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Australian business conditions & confidence stablise: Andrew Hanlan

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Tasmania continues to lead the country in many property indicators, according to a recent Herron Todd White (HTW) residential report. 
The report notes that in comparison to some of the larger mainland markets, the premium price segment to some extent remains ‘affordable’.
The highest ever residential sale was in 2011 for in excess of $8 million.
To date the highest sale of 2019 has been for $3.7 million being a riverfront holding positioned between Wrest Point and the Royal Hobart Yacht Club at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-tas-sandy+bay-130594658" target="_blank">358 Sandy Bay Road, Hobart</a>.
It comprises a dual level holding with five-bedrooms, three-bathrooms and a double carport. 
"As would be expected its fully secured with an electronic gate and features its own jetty," the valuation firm said. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/4/sandy%20bay.jpg" alt="">
The talk of the town however is the construction of a family residence at Tinderbox, just south of Blackmans Bay.
CoreLogic have reported a construction cost of $17 million on realestate.com. Records show the land was purchased for just over $3 million.
"Comprising a riverfront holding over dual levels with a floor area in excess of 1200 square metres of living. Anyone for a small hotel?" the valuation firm said. 
The HTW report notes up north in Launceston a sale was settled at the start of the year for $3.25 million.
This was located at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-tas-launceston-129370374" target="_blank">1 Brisbane Street </a>(pictured below) virtually within the CBD and known as Glenfruin.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/12/4/launceston.jpg" alt="">
Promoted as a historic Italianate style home it is positioned overlooking City Park on a 1482 square metre lot.
The house is built over three levels, and is a fully renovated 1880s home with four-to-five bedrooms.
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Tasmania's premium price segment remains 'affordable' compared to larger mainland markets: HTW residential 

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The sod has been turned and work has commenced on Merrifield City, a retail-led town centre for Victoria’s largest mixed-use master planned community, Merrifield. 
The joint venture between QIC GRE and Merrifield developers – MAB Corporation and Gibson Property Corporation sits at the heart of Merrifield.
It is a 900-hectare, master planned community located in Mickleham, Merrifield City where retail spending for the growth corridor is also projected to rise substantially to circa $2.7 billion by 2036.
Mr Stubbings said QIC GRE’s partnership with MAB Corporation and GPC was established in 2014 when QIC GRE acquired a 50% stake in the greenfield site, as well as development and management rights.
He said, “once complete, Merrifield will be home to over 8,000 dwellings and, with a dedicated business park, create more than 30,000 jobs.
“The first stage of the vision for Merrifield City will be dynamic and convenience-based, focused on food and essential offers that service people day and night, as well as introduce the region’s first supermarket, Coles.”
"It will incorporate 6,700 sqm of retail space comprising Coles, two mini-majors and 19 speciality retailers, as well as an at-grade car park for 350 vehicles and a kid’s play zone."
MAB Corporation Managing Director, Andrew Buxton, said with stage one works already underway, Merrifield City is expected to open its doors to the community in late-2020.
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Construction commences on Merrifield City retail centre

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A historic Hunter Valley pastoral estate built by convicts 190 years ago is for sale for the first time in nearly a decade.
The 100 acre, 26-room luxury heritage estate at 7 Range Road in Whittingham - known as ‘Baroona’ or locally as ‘The Castle’ - is one of Australia’s most renowned country estates.
Since it's construction by John Lanarch and Co in 1829 it has had only seven custodians, with the current owners, Tony and Gaylene Poke, putting the property up for sale after eight years of ownership via agents Deborah Cullen of Knight Frank Prestige and James Callinan of Colliers International Newcastle.
Ms Cullen said “The estate is in pristine condition – it has been beautifully maintained and recently upgraded by the current owners,” she said. “The refurbishment was designed to showcase Baroona’s stunning history and Victorian architecture while including a stylish blend of contemporary upgrades to create a ‘best in class’ luxury country estate,” she said.
Set on 100 acres of grazing country watered by seven dams and town water, it is on the doorstep of the lifestyle region of the Upper Hunter, situated just south of the Hunter Valley town of Singleton and only 15 minutes’ drive from the Pokolbin Wine Region.
Mr Callinan said the property would attract a wide range of buyers, from Australia and overseas.
She also suggested it would be suitable as a commercial venture.
The seven bedroom, five bathroom home is only an hour from Newcastle and its airport
Features include a deep and covered flagged sandstone verandah, carved double cedar front doors, a wine cellar (which was once used as holding cells), swimming pool and billiard room.
Aside from the main residence, outhouses include an observation tower, glasshouse, gate house, carriage house and Victorian gothic stable, which was the birthplace and final resting place for the famous race horse and winner of two Melbourne cups ‘Peter Pan’ between 1932 and 1934.
It is for sale via an expressions of interest campaign closing February 20.
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Historic convict built Hunter Valley pastoral estate listed

For most new apartment buildings, the Owners Corporation starts life with little more than a bank account and the first quarterly strata levies.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/9-gay-street-castle-hill-9-gay-street-castle-hill-nsw-2154">9 Gay Street</a> in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a>, it starts with around $7 million in reserve.

It's an unusual legacy of what was once one of Sydney's highest-profile apartment remediation projects. When the development, originally known as Skyview and built by disgraced developer Top Place, came under scrutiny by then NSW Building Commissioner David Chandler, an $11 million remediation bond was negotiated to ensure any building defects could be fully rectified.

The building underwent an 18-month remediation program, during which around $4 million of that bond was spent bringing the building up to the standard it should have been in from the outset.

After extensive inspections, all active rectification orders have been lifted. What's more, around $7.2 million remains secured for the Owners Corporation for the next 15 years.

In a twist few would have predicted, what began as a significant concern for purchasers has left the building with something almost unheard of in the apartment market: a multi-million-dollar financial reserve from day one.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359136]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a> Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said the structure offers buyers a level of certainty that is difficult to replicate.

"The $11 million bond established for the Skyview Castle Hill development represents exceptional value, providing genuine financial security for purchasers," Huxley said.

"Unlike a standard insurance policy, this bond consists of real funds held in trust for the Owners Corporation, offering a tangible layer of protection and added peace of mind."

The apartments themselves have been designed with a focus on practical, contemporary living. Interiors feature Smeg appliances, stone benchtops, tiled living areas, carpeted bedrooms, 2.7-metre ceilings, floor-to-ceiling glazing, and ducted heating and cooling throughout.

Residents also have access to a range of shared amenities, including two rooftop barbecue areas, a swimming pool, children's playgrounds, secure building access, storage cages, and visitor parking.

The location continues to be one of the project's strongest drawcards. Castle Hill Metro Station sits virtually on the doorstep, providing direct connections across Sydney's expanding Metro network, while Castle Towers offers extensive retail, dining, entertainment, and service amenities within walking distance.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359127]

The building, now named after its location at 9 Gay Street, comprises a diverse mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments starting from just under $600,000.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett said demand in the Hills District continues to be driven by buyers seeking convenience and connectivity.

"Interest from both owner-occupiers and investors in Castle Hill remains exceptionally strong, with buyers consistently prioritising developments in close proximity to the Metro station and Castle Towers Shopping Centre," Hamblett said.

"There is a clear trend in the market, with purchasers seeking convenient access to transport and lifestyle amenities that support a seamless, low-maintenance way of living."

On top of the long-term protection afforded by the remaining $7.2 million bond, Equitifund is offering a limited-time stamp duty rebate on selected apartments.

Eligible purchasers can also secure finance options, including a 3.99 per cent two-year variable rate, loan-to-value ratios of up to 90 per cent, and interest-only lending options through EquitiCredit.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147685]

Joel Robinson

Why this Castle Hill apartment building starts with a $7 million advantage

For much of the past few years, conversations about Australia's property market have centred on the rapid growth seen in Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Perth. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3004">Melbourne</a> has followed a different trajectory.

That relative underperformance is now encouraging some buyers to reassess the city, particularly those willing to look beyond short-term market movements and focus on quality property in established locations, along with the long-term growth prospects of a city expected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s most populous.

John Bekiaris, Research &amp; Market Insights at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Projects by Equitifund</a>, said Melbourne's current position is attracting increasingly sophisticated purchasers.

"Melbourne continues to present one of Australia's strongest long-term investment stories," Bekiaris says.

"While other capital cities have experienced stronger recent growth, that relative underperformance is exactly what's attracting sophisticated counter-cyclical investors."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363268]

Equitifund isn't just commenting on Melbourne's property market, it's investing in it.

The Sydney-headquartered capital partner has taken over the remaining apartments at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/victoriana-melbourne-20-queens-road-melbourne-vic-3004">Victoriana</a>, the recently completed glass-encased development opposite Albert Park Lake in Melbourne's tightly held St Kilda Road precinct.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hickory">Hickory</a>, Victoriana places residents between one of Melbourne's most recognised parklands and the CBD, offering oversized two and three-bedroom apartments aimed at owner-occupiers seeking a genuine alternative to a traditional family home.

The development comprises 232 completed residences alongside a suite of resident amenities, including a 25-metre indoor swimming pool, gymnasium, landscaped entertaining areas, resident lounges, EV charging, secure basement parking and a concierge-style arrival experience.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363229]

The apartments have been designed with owner-occupiers firmly in mind.&nbsp;Open-plan living and dining areas flow onto generous balconies framing views across Albert Park Lake, Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens and the Melbourne skyline.

Kitchens feature Gaggenau appliances, stone benchtops and generous preparation space. Bedrooms include built-in robes, while bathrooms feature full-height textured tiling. Hardwood flooring and ducted air conditioning complete residences designed for long-term living.

Rothelowman's architecture takes its cues from the landscape opposite the site. Sweeping horizontal glazing references the movement of Albert Park Lake, while generous balconies and expansive glazing strengthen the connection between the apartments and the surrounding parklands. The result is a building designed to deliver the scale and amenity expected of luxury apartment living, while offering the larger floorplans increasingly sought by owner-occupiers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363284]

The location is one of Victoriana's defining characteristics. Positioned on Queens Road, residents are directly opposite Albert Park Lake and within easy reach of Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens, South Melbourne, St Kilda Road and the CBD. With few comparable development opportunities remaining in the precinct, buyers are increasingly placing value on outlooks that are unlikely to be interrupted by future construction.

Greg Huxley, Founder of Equitifund, believes those qualities become even more valuable over time.

"Premium real estate has always rewarded buyers who take a long-term view," Huxley said.

"Victoriana represents the kind of asset that's increasingly difficult to recreate today, particularly in an established location like Queens Road."

He said rising construction costs are also changing the way buyers assess completed developments.

"When you combine an irreplaceable location with thoughtful architecture and premium finishes, you create something that becomes increasingly difficult to reproduce as construction costs continue to rise."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=1979 project_image_fid=363228]

According to National Sales Director Ben Hamblett, enquiry has been driven largely by Melbourne downsizers and buyers upgrading from smaller apartments.

"Interest in Victoriana continues to build, with strong buyer focus on the larger owner-occupier residences within the development," Hamblett says.

"Enquiry is increasingly driven by local buyers who recognise the rarity of what's on offer: park-facing apartments in an established neighbourhood where new development opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce. At Victoriana, the view is not just a feature; it's an appreciating asset in its own right."

He said interstate enquiry has also strengthened as buyers reassess Melbourne's position within the national property cycle.

"Melbourne currently stands as the most compelling entry point of any major Australian capital, and discerning buyers are beginning to recognise what those who move early always understand: the best opportunities are taken before the price rise confirms them."

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=1979]

Why now is the time to buy in Melbourne's premium apartment market

Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

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