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EXPERT OBSERVER
The RBA will stay on hold in February, using the recent improvement in the unemployment rate to buy time – suggesting the bank will continue to react to the accumulation of evidence very gradually.
It is important to note that the framework for monetary policy still suggests that rates should be lower.
Inflationary pressure remains weak and recent headwinds – particularly for consumption and business investment - are likely to persist. Notwithstanding the recent dip in the unemployment rate, a large degree of spare capacity remains in the labour market with little progress having been made over the last year in reducing unemployment.
Nonetheless, unless the RBA wishes to move against market expectations, the February cut appears off the table.
Consequently, we have moved the timing of the next cut to April followed by a second cut around mid-year. Beyond that the risk of a move to ‘unconventional’ policy in H2 2020 will depend critically on whether the labour market deteriorates more significantly than we forecast.
By April, the RBA will have confirmation of another quarter of weak consumer spending with further evidence that interest rate and tax cuts to date have not done enough to boost spending.
We will review our GDP forecasts over the next week or so as more information comes in on the indirect effects of the bushfires and coronavirus on activity and ultimately the labour market. 
The stronger than expected December labour market data has provided time for the RBA to further assess the data flow. While the RBA staying on hold in February is expected by the market, we still think the RBA will regret not moving earlier this year – as was also the case in 2019 – as consumer spending trends remain very soft. The December NAB survey also suggests that private sector economic momentum, while it didn’t collapse in late 2019, remains stalled. 
Ultimately the RBA’s policy path will depend on where the economy and the labour market goes from here. We remain of the view that the economy – and consumer spending in particular - will continue to underperform and probably more than the RBA expects – albeit new RBA forecasts will be published later this week and will likely contain a softer near-term growth outlook. 
An early estimate of the short-term bushfire impact could well see average GDP growth in 2020 slow to around 1.5% or lower, with unemployment starting to rise to around 5.5% by H2 2020. While we will be assessing the indirect disruption effects of the fires over coming weeks it seems likely that Q1 GDP will be negative. We are quite worried that the January NAB Survey will further highlight that the indirect effects were larger than most expect.
Internal data on income growth suggests that wages growth may have weakened in late 2019. Indeed, our analysis suggests household cash flows weakened further in late 2019. It is too early to assess the impact of the Coronavirus but clearly it will also not be a positive. Next week we will formally review our GDP forecasts ahead of the next NAB business survey release. 
The bushfire rebuild will add somewhat to growth in the out years but we do not see that as significant in 2020 – rather it is likely to be a 2021 issue. Also, the fiscal outlay on the fires (at $2billion over two years) is not likely to be a game changer in terms of the near term macroeconomic outlook.
We still see scope for more support from a material fiscal package. That does not appear to be on the government’s agenda. Similarly, we think there is a need for renewed focus on structural policy to lift productivity growth over the medium term, which would in turn provide support for wage growth.
Whether the RBA moves to unconventional policy will very much depend on whether the economy strengthens in H2 2020 and unemployment continues its recent gains. We fear that will not be the case. Beyond that, the shape of the 2020/21 Federal Budget will be important.
While we can understand the RBA’s position of taking more time to assess the outlook, that in our view is only sustainable for a short period. By April it will be clear that private sector growth continues to flat line, consumer spending remains soft and potentially that recent unemployment gains are not sustained. That combination means that further stimulus will be needed.
ALAN OSTER is NAB Group's Chief Economist
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

NAB push back RBA rate cut prediction: Alan Oster

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House prices continue to rise solidly, supported by easier access to credit and lower interest rates, according to the latest ANZ Housing Update report.
The housing update found a combination of pent-up demand and low volumes looks to have been a key driver of the larger than-expected rebound.
While the initial strength was concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne, the pick-up has broadened across the capital cities. In December, prices rose in all capital cities bar Perth (where they were flat) and Darwin.
Looking at the nation as a whole, ANZ predict that prices will rise solidly in 2020 but the pace of monthly gains will moderate.
Felicity Emmett, Senior ANZ economist said, "we have revised up our forecasts a little and now expect prices to rise 8% on average through 2020, and 4% in 2021."
Building Approvals
Building approvals have fallen sharply, driven by a steep decline in high-rise apartment building approvals. Some of this decline can be attributed to the recent cladding and cracking crises which have lead to a lack of faith in apartment developers.
The decline in approvals suggests construction will fall for some months yet.
Felicity Emmett said, "leading indicators are turning, suggesting activity will pick up later this year. Finance for construction, both for households and businesses, is picking up strongly, while property developers are more confident about the construction outlook."
"Build quality concerns, particularly in NSW, may dampen the eventual upswing."
"We expect activity to trough in mid-2020 before picking up," she forecast.
Housing Credit &amp; Loans
 
Adelaide Timbrell, Economist ANZ said, "Housing credit growth is at a historical low of 2.3% y/y, as households use rate cuts to pay down debt faster, rather than reduce repayments. The expiry of interest only loans is also leading to faster debt repayment."
"Recent data suggest arrears rates are now declining, helped by the improved housing market. Despite higher WA arrears and IO loan switching increasing debt repayments by up to 40%, Australian arrears are low by international standards," she added.
First home buyer loan sizes are at historical highs and affordability concerns may emerge as housing prices continue to rise.
Rising rents are squeezing low-middle income earners, who take up an increasing share of the private rental market, atleast when compared to two decades ago.
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Property recovery spreads, building approvals may bounce back in late 2020: ANZ

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The Members Equity Bank's findings from its fourth Quarterly Property Sentiment Report reveals that the rising house prices are yet to crush the home ownership dreams of First home buyers.
The survey of 1,000 Australians in the property market took place in at the start of the month - the first quarter of 2020. 
Compared to the second quarter of 2019 where only 38 per cent of FHBs intended on buying property, FHBs' hopes of breaking into the market have jumped dramatically with 51 per cent of FHBs planning to buy property in the next 12 months. 
ME’s general manager Andrew Bartolo said, “Rising property prices carry the risk of squeezing first-home buyers out of the market, however they also signal a healthier market that presents a worthwhile long-term investment. 
“In the case of FHBs, the recent property price recovery has likely nudged them to get in while they can – as though it’s ‘now or never’ – and has created a sense of FOMO.
“Low interest rates and commentary in the market for the support of FHBs may have also contributed to an increase in home-buying intentions.” 
Over half predict house prices will continue climbing.
Recent property prices across Australia’s key property markets aren’t expected to halt any time soon, according to Australians in the property market. 
55 per cent of respondents expect prices to rise over the next 12 months. This is a massive leap from the mere 38 per cent who predicted price rises in the third quarter of 2019 when the market first began to turn. 
Strong house value growth is predicted by Victorians more than any other state, with 67 per cent of Victorian respondents predicting prices to go up. This is a 10 percentage point jump from last quarter’s prediction, and a 34 percentage point jump from their prediction for the second quarter of 2019.
All other major cities had a more optimistic outlook on prices than last quarter, including WA where more were predicting price falls than rises in the last quarter.
Positive house price expectations were seen across owner occupiers, FHBs and investors. 
Overall property market sentiment improves.
The report shows sentiment towards the property market has improved for the third quarter in a row, increasing to net positive 21 per cent. This is 3 percentage points up from the fourth quarter in 2019, and up 14 percentage points from the second quarter in 2019 when the report first started.
“Considering a combination of market factors including the buzz of home value growth, a solid spring selling season, plus rate cuts and signs from the RBA that rates will stay lower for longer, it’s no surprise overall property sentiment has improved,” said Bartolo. 
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Investor optimism has dipped slightly and is now on par with that of owner occupiers, as rising prices present a potential barrier to this cohort. 
Spending habits take another hit.
ME’s report revealed price positivity and overall market sentiment isn’t flowing through to spending habits. 
Recent property price movements have negatively impacted ‘willingness to spend on discretionary items’ for another quarter in a row. It remains the only area of personal finances that has stayed net negatively impacted - sliding deeper from net negative three per cent to net negative eight per cent over the past quarter. 
All other areas of personal finances analysed such as sense of wealth, financial confidence, savings behaviour and debt situation, remain net positively impacted by recent price movements. 
“Despite market positivity and a stronger sense of wealth, there’s less willingness to spend on discretionary items – a trend that bucks the wealth effect theory. Much broader economic dynamics are obviously at play,” said Bartolo. 
Growing optimism eases financial worries, but affordability remains an issue 
Growing optimism over the past quarter has eased most financial worries, but housing affordability still tops the list. 
Ninety-two per cent of respondents agree that ‘housing affordability is a big issue in Australia’, up from 89 per cent in the forth quarter of 2019. 
ME’s report explored level of personal worry towards affordability, as well as acknowledgement of the issue, for the first time and found net 14 per cent agree with the statement ‘I’m worried about property becoming unaffordable’ – making it the top worry. 
All other perceived worries in ME’s report have eased to the lowest point since the survey began in the second quarter of 2019. 
Tight credit policies are becoming less of a concern with only net six per cent agreeing it’s a worry, which is down from net agree 16 per cent last quarter. 
Concern over negative equity has dropped dramatically to net disagree 34 per cent, from net disagree 12 per cent last quarter. Likewise, worry about being forced to switch to interest only payments also slid to net disagree 30 per cent from net disagree 12 per cent last quarter.
Not enough choice in the market 
The report also compared the perception of choice in the property market. Forty-six per cent of respondents believe there is not enough choice, with this figure jumping to 57 per cent among FHBs. 
“Housing supply has picked up slightly, but with prices rising and demand outweighing supply, there’s no wonder that almost 1 in 2 Aussies don’t think there’s enough choice available,” said Bartolo. 
“With so many FHBs planning to buy in 2020, yet most stating choice in the market is a barrier, addressing this issue should be a focus in the year ahead.” 
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Rising prices yet to crush first home buyers ownership dreams in 2020: ME Bank

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GUEST OBSERVER
Bushfires have killed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/24/bushfires-death-toll-rises-to-33-after-body-found-in-burnt-out-house-near-moruya" target="_blank">33 people</a> and destroyed nearly 3,000 houses across Australia so far this fire season. Canberra is under threat right now.
It isn’t only houses. Significant commercial buildings have been destroyed, among them Kangaroo Island’s iconic <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/there-s-just-nothing-left-iconic-tourist-site-will-rebuild-as-fires-threaten-premiums-20200110-p53qed" target="_blank">Southern Ocean Lodge</a>.
In New South Wales alone, <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/nsw-fire-affected-schools-will-be-safe-for-returning-students/11870494" target="_blank">140</a> schools have been hit. Many require <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-29/wytaliba-students-return-to-classroom-after-bushfire/11746188" target="_blank">extensive</a> work.
The <a href="https://www.abcb.gov.au/Connect/Categories/National-Construction-Code" target="_blank">National Construction Code</a> provides false, and dangerous, hope.
It requires new homes (Class 1 buildings) built in declared “bushfire-prone” areas to be built to either <a href="http://www.as3959.com.au/" target="_blank">Australian Standard 3959</a>, the National Association of Steelframed Housing standard “<a href="https://www.nash.asn.au/shop/product/nash-standard-for-steel-framed-construction-in-bushfire-areas/" target="_blank">Steel Framed Construction in Bushfire Areas</a>”, or a “performance solution”, which could be anything that in the opinion of a qualified person complies with the performance requirements of the code.
It also applies to Class 2 buildings (apartments) and Class 3 buildings (hotels and guesthouses) in bushfire-prone areas.
Disturbingly, the code does not apply to community buildings, such as schools.
The standard does not fireproof buildings
The definition of “bushfire-prone” varies from state to state, as do the procedures for enforcing it.
Confused? So are many construction professionals.
The sad truth is that any practical building that is exposed to an intense bushfire will probably burn down, whether it complies with Australian Standard 3959 or not.
Worse still, the available evidence suggests there is a significant risk that the people sheltering in it will not survive without an effective refuge, which Australian Standard 3959 does not mandate or consider.
The standard speaks for itself:
Although this Standard is designed to improve the performance of buildings when subjected to bushfire attack in designated bushfire-prone areas, there can be no guarantee that a building will survive a bushfire event on every occasion. This is substantially due to the unpredictable nature and behaviour of fire and extreme weather conditions.
More importantly, while a building constructed to Australian Standard 3959 might be less likely to burn down, Standard 3959 in its current form might not protect the people within the building.
Worse, it might not protect people
The highest aim of any system of building regulation ought to be life and safety, followed by the protection of adjoining properties and then, a long way back, by the protection of the property itself.
In the case of bushfire, the <a href="https://abcb.gov.au/">Australian Building Codes Board</a> and its political masters appear to have put the protection of buildings first, when it should be last.
If a house is under threat by bushfire, the best advice is to evacuate early, whether it complies with Australian Standard 3959 or not.
By encouraging people to believe they can defend a structure compliant with Australian Standard 3959 we could be putting more people at risk than if we simply told them to evacuate.
Residents and firefighters defending houses have accounted for a large percentage of the deaths this fire season.
It’d be better to rethink where we build
We may need to have difficult conversations about whether our subdivision practices are appropriate. Allowing people to build in areas that are bushfire-prone, particularly where buildings are effectively built into the bush, might be creating unmanageable problems for the future.
If there is no such thing as a bushfire-proof house, as Australian Standard 3959 seems to concede, we might need to focus on evacuation and shelters.
In the United States, rather than requiring houses to resist tornadoes or wildfires, the Federal Emergency Management Agency encourages the provision of shelters. State and local authorities often make these mandatory.
People are more important than structures
Having attended one funeral for a person killed defending their home this fire season, I have had enough. We should not be worrying about protecting buildings until we have worked out how to protect human life.
The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/regulations-and-standards/building-and-construction/building-ministers-forum">Building Ministers’ Forum</a> and the <a href="https://abcb.gov.au/">Australian Building Codes Board</a> should either embrace a policy of early evacuation or mandate fire shelters in bushfire-prone areas for both new and existing houses.
The board and the states should also make every effort to regulate to ensure all buildings and places designated as refuges of last resort can properly fulfil their intended function, whether they are new or not.
If we are going to have another fire season similar to this year, and so far the CSIRO predictions on this have been totally accurate, we will need to sort this out quickly, preferably before next summer.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130165/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/geoff-hanmer-90647">Geoff Hanmer</a>, Adjunct Lecturer in Architecture, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/building-standards-give-us-false-hope-theres-no-such-thing-as-a-fireproof-house-130165">original article</a>.
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Building standards offer false hope, fireproof houses don't exist: Geoff Hanmer

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Dwelling prices have reached the bottom in Adelaide as buyer confidence rises alongside auction clearance rates.
According to the latest RiskWise Property Research Risks &amp; Opportunities Report, housing finance in South Australia is showing signs of improvement with an increase of 8.6 per cent since February 2019 after a reduction of 6.6 per cent relative to August 2018.
In recent years the market had delivered modest capital growth for houses and poor capital growth for units.
While the labour market has improved in the past couple of years, the effective unemployment rate in South Australia is still above 9 per cent and the employment market is still soft.
This has a strong connection with low population growth (only 0.8 per cent per annum) and, therefore, low demand for dwellings.
While serviceability measures have improved due to the RBA’s interest rate cuts (with another expected sometime in the new year), the relatively high unemployment rate increases the risk of credit defaults.
That, combined with some properties that suffer from low demand, require special attention in relation to credit provisioning.
However, he said in some high-demand areas the housing market was showing some evidence of recovery, particularly those with steady recent price growth rates.
Buyer confidence has increased in South Australia, particularly Adelaide. This has also improved auction clearance rates and, consequently, it appears dwelling prices have reached the bottom.
However, while South Australia enjoys high levels of public and private expenditure, in the short term, the economic growth is projected to remain relatively low, around the 2 per cent mark.
Long-term economic growth will be a slow process and with a soft labour market no significant changes to demand are expected in the short to medium term, with less popular areas experiencing modest growth only.
He said despite low building approvals, demand for houses was projected to remain moderate with, therefore, only moderate capital growth forecast.
However, he said the growth rate was projected to vary greatly across the state with houses in areas close to the Adelaide CBD, such as Adelaide Central and Hills, likely to deliver better growth.
Houses in areas that do not enjoy good growth drivers still carry a risk of delivering poor / negative capital growth. For example, according to CoreLogic, the median house price in the Barossa - Yorke - Mid North area declined by 0.2 per cent in the past 12 months.
He said while South Australia offered healthy rental returns for both houses and units, demand for units among owner-occupiers, despite good affordability, was generally low.
In addition, units in some suburbs are subject to voluntary lending restrictions by the major lenders, such as lower loan-to-value ratio (i.e. higher deposit) due to oversupply,
Units are not considered a popular dwelling option among families especially off-the-plan units in high rises, and these carry the highest level of risk. Overall, units in South Australia are likely to deliver poor capital growth.
Adelaide Central and Hills has the highest rate of oversupply in South Australia with 2696 units in the pipeline (an 8.2 per cent increase to the current stock). This unit oversupply has led to a price decline of 0.3 per cent in the past year.
DORON PELEG is the CEO at RiskWise
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Adelaide house prices bottom out with growth projected: RiskWise's Doron Peleg

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The Northern Territory's poor economy continues to play a part in its subdued property market with 15.6 per cent price reductions for houses in the past five years and a massive 29.4 per cent for units.
According to the latest RiskWise Property Research Risks &amp; Opportunities Report, much of the negative capital growth in recent years is due to population decreases following the end of the mining boom and lack of employment, leading to high interstate emigration.
RiskWise CEO Doron Peleg said the territory was the only state in Australia that experienced population loss in 2017-18.
While dwelling supply in relation to population growth is low and dwellings are very affordable, the low demand for housing makes the Northern Territory a risky area especially given the low level of private investment that is significantly below the growth levels during the mining boom.
According to CoreLogic, Darwin house prices peaked in 2014 and fell 15.6 per cent over the past five years. However, improved housing affordability slightly reduces the risk associated with houses from medium-high to medium.
He said it was likely houses in the Northern Territory would deliver poor or negative capital growth in the short to medium term.
However, as more than 67 per cent of houses in the territory were owner-occupied and held for a long period of time, he said they carried a lower level of risk than units.
Units carry a very high level of risk to deliver negative capital growth, due to the combination of oversupply, lending restrictions and low demand.
The current supply of units, while not considered high in relation to population growth, still exceeds the low demand for them.
This is particularly the case in areas with a high concentration of off-the-plan units, such as Darwin with 2034 units in the pipeline (10.2 per cent increase to the current stock). They delivered -33.7 per cent capital growth over the last five years.
DORON PELEG is the CEO at RiskWise
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Northern Territory's poor economy continues to subdue the property market: RiskWise's Doron Peleg

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A Noosa Heads trophy home in the prestigous Witta Circle has been sold for $7.55 million.
The five bedroom, three bathroom home sitting on a 621 sqm block was listed with an asking price of $7.9 million.
Featuring a 23 metre frontage, the house has undergone an extensive renovation and presents as new. It also has an infinity edge pool and authentic timber burning fireplace.
Situated at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-noosa+heads-132481842" target="_blank">39 Witta Circle</a>, the home was sold by Eric Seetoo of Tom Offermann Real Estate.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/12/17/Witta%20Circle%202.JPG" alt="">
It was listed as a rental as recently as 2013 seekin $1,200/pw.
Located on Witta Circle island the home is fringed with a sandy beach and an outlook across the river.
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Waterfront Witta Circle Island trophy home in Noosa Heads sold

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A Crestmead, Queensland mortgagee home has been sold for $285,000, a $45,000 loss.
The three bedroom, two bathroom house last sold for $330,000 in 2009.
Situated at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-qld-crestmead-132420382" target="_blank">135 Waratah Drive</a>, Griffiths and Gunn of Your Address Real Estate marketed the home.
Set on 600 sqm, the home was built in 1980.
Following an unsuccessful December 2019 auction, the holding was listed for $290,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
The median sale price for a home in <a href="/news">Crestmead</a> is $325,000, according to the latest CoreLogic data.
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Creastmead, Queensland mortgagee home sold for $45,000 loss

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A Rosbery, Northern Territory mortgagee has been sold for $300,000, an $80,000 loss.
The house was last sold in 2008 for $379,000.
It was unsuccessfully listed in 2010 when it sought $465,000 and this latest campaign ran from October 2018 to December 2019.
Michael Keith and Tim Mackenzie of O'Donoghues marketed the property.
Situated at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nt-rosebery-129631770" target="_blank">1 Granites Drive</a>, the home was originally listed for $399,000 but after an unsuccessful October 2019 auction, sought $300,000.
Set on 801 square metres, the three bedroom one bathroom house was listed as a rental for $385 per week in 2013.
Built in 1988, it is located only a short stroll to the Rosebery Primary School as well as Palmerston College, there are also shops close by and just minutes drive to the new Bakewell Shopping Centre, as well as the Palmerston CBD.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
The median sale price for a home in <a href="/news">Rosebery, NT</a> is $502,500, according to the latest CoreLogic data.
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Rosebery, NT mortgagee home sold for $80,000 loss

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A Franklin, Australian Central Territory mortgagee apartment has sold for $280,000.
The January 2020 sale follows an unsuccessful November 2019 auction.
The one bedroom, one bathroom apartment was sold for its asking price.
Hugo Mendez Rauana Smith of LJ Hooker marketed the property.
Situated at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-apartment-act-franklin-132149578" target="_blank">31/92-98 Henry Kendall Street</a>, the apartment also features a parking space.
Built in 2012, the 50 sqm unit holds views over Franklin.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
The median price for a house in <a href="/developments/franklin-act-2913">Franklin, ACT</a> is $365,000 according to CoreLogic. 
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Franklin, ACT mortgagee home sold after unsuccessful auction

For most new apartment buildings, the Owners Corporation starts life with little more than a bank account and the first quarterly strata levies.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/9-gay-street-castle-hill-9-gay-street-castle-hill-nsw-2154">9 Gay Street</a> in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a>, it starts with around $7 million in reserve.

It's an unusual legacy of what was once one of Sydney's highest-profile apartment remediation projects. When the development, originally known as Skyview and built by disgraced developer Top Place, came under scrutiny by then NSW Building Commissioner David Chandler, an $11 million remediation bond was negotiated to ensure any building defects could be fully rectified.

The building underwent an 18-month remediation program, during which around $4 million of that bond was spent bringing the building up to the standard it should have been in from the outset.

After extensive inspections, all active rectification orders have been lifted. What's more, around $7.2 million remains secured for the Owners Corporation for the next 15 years.

In a twist few would have predicted, what began as a significant concern for purchasers has left the building with something almost unheard of in the apartment market: a multi-million-dollar financial reserve from day one.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359136]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Equitifund</a> Executive Chairman Greg Huxley said the structure offers buyers a level of certainty that is difficult to replicate.

"The $11 million bond established for the Skyview Castle Hill development represents exceptional value, providing genuine financial security for purchasers," Huxley said.

"Unlike a standard insurance policy, this bond consists of real funds held in trust for the Owners Corporation, offering a tangible layer of protection and added peace of mind."

The apartments themselves have been designed with a focus on practical, contemporary living. Interiors feature Smeg appliances, stone benchtops, tiled living areas, carpeted bedrooms, 2.7-metre ceilings, floor-to-ceiling glazing, and ducted heating and cooling throughout.

Residents also have access to a range of shared amenities, including two rooftop barbecue areas, a swimming pool, children's playgrounds, secure building access, storage cages, and visitor parking.

The location continues to be one of the project's strongest drawcards. Castle Hill Metro Station sits virtually on the doorstep, providing direct connections across Sydney's expanding Metro network, while Castle Towers offers extensive retail, dining, entertainment, and service amenities within walking distance.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=147685 project_image_fid=359127]

The building, now named after its location at 9 Gay Street, comprises a diverse mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments starting from just under $600,000.

Equitifund National Sales Director Ben Hamblett said demand in the Hills District continues to be driven by buyers seeking convenience and connectivity.

"Interest from both owner-occupiers and investors in Castle Hill remains exceptionally strong, with buyers consistently prioritising developments in close proximity to the Metro station and Castle Towers Shopping Centre," Hamblett said.

"There is a clear trend in the market, with purchasers seeking convenient access to transport and lifestyle amenities that support a seamless, low-maintenance way of living."

On top of the long-term protection afforded by the remaining $7.2 million bond, Equitifund is offering a limited-time stamp duty rebate on selected apartments.

Eligible purchasers can also secure finance options, including a 3.99 per cent two-year variable rate, loan-to-value ratios of up to 90 per cent, and interest-only lending options through EquitiCredit.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=147685]

Joel Robinson

Why this Castle Hill apartment building starts with a $7 million advantage

For much of the past few years, conversations about Australia's property market have centred on the rapid growth seen in Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Perth. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melbourne-vic-3004">Melbourne</a> has followed a different trajectory.

That relative underperformance is now encouraging some buyers to reassess the city, particularly those willing to look beyond short-term market movements and focus on quality property in established locations, along with the long-term growth prospects of a city expected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s most populous.

John Bekiaris, Research &amp; Market Insights at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/equitifund-group">Projects by Equitifund</a>, said Melbourne's current position is attracting increasingly sophisticated purchasers.

"Melbourne continues to present one of Australia's strongest long-term investment stories," Bekiaris says.

"While other capital cities have experienced stronger recent growth, that relative underperformance is exactly what's attracting sophisticated counter-cyclical investors."

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Equitifund isn't just commenting on Melbourne's property market, it's investing in it.

The Sydney-headquartered capital partner has taken over the remaining apartments at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/victoriana-melbourne-20-queens-road-melbourne-vic-3004">Victoriana</a>, the recently completed glass-encased development opposite Albert Park Lake in Melbourne's tightly held St Kilda Road precinct.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a> and built by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/hickory">Hickory</a>, Victoriana places residents between one of Melbourne's most recognised parklands and the CBD, offering oversized two and three-bedroom apartments aimed at owner-occupiers seeking a genuine alternative to a traditional family home.

The development comprises 232 completed residences alongside a suite of resident amenities, including a 25-metre indoor swimming pool, gymnasium, landscaped entertaining areas, resident lounges, EV charging, secure basement parking and a concierge-style arrival experience.

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The apartments have been designed with owner-occupiers firmly in mind.&nbsp;Open-plan living and dining areas flow onto generous balconies framing views across Albert Park Lake, Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens and the Melbourne skyline.

Kitchens feature Gaggenau appliances, stone benchtops and generous preparation space. Bedrooms include built-in robes, while bathrooms feature full-height textured tiling. Hardwood flooring and ducted air conditioning complete residences designed for long-term living.

Rothelowman's architecture takes its cues from the landscape opposite the site. Sweeping horizontal glazing references the movement of Albert Park Lake, while generous balconies and expansive glazing strengthen the connection between the apartments and the surrounding parklands. The result is a building designed to deliver the scale and amenity expected of luxury apartment living, while offering the larger floorplans increasingly sought by owner-occupiers.

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The location is one of Victoriana's defining characteristics. Positioned on Queens Road, residents are directly opposite Albert Park Lake and within easy reach of Fawkner Park, the Royal Botanic Gardens, South Melbourne, St Kilda Road and the CBD. With few comparable development opportunities remaining in the precinct, buyers are increasingly placing value on outlooks that are unlikely to be interrupted by future construction.

Greg Huxley, Founder of Equitifund, believes those qualities become even more valuable over time.

"Premium real estate has always rewarded buyers who take a long-term view," Huxley said.

"Victoriana represents the kind of asset that's increasingly difficult to recreate today, particularly in an established location like Queens Road."

He said rising construction costs are also changing the way buyers assess completed developments.

"When you combine an irreplaceable location with thoughtful architecture and premium finishes, you create something that becomes increasingly difficult to reproduce as construction costs continue to rise."

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According to National Sales Director Ben Hamblett, enquiry has been driven largely by Melbourne downsizers and buyers upgrading from smaller apartments.

"Interest in Victoriana continues to build, with strong buyer focus on the larger owner-occupier residences within the development," Hamblett says.

"Enquiry is increasingly driven by local buyers who recognise the rarity of what's on offer: park-facing apartments in an established neighbourhood where new development opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce. At Victoriana, the view is not just a feature; it's an appreciating asset in its own right."

He said interstate enquiry has also strengthened as buyers reassess Melbourne's position within the national property cycle.

"Melbourne currently stands as the most compelling entry point of any major Australian capital, and discerning buyers are beginning to recognise what those who move early always understand: the best opportunities are taken before the price rise confirms them."

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Why now is the time to buy in Melbourne's premium apartment market

Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

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Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

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Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

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Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

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Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

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Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

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Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

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Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

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La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

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<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

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