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Some of you may remember a television advertisement that appeared many years ago that went like this – “So you think you’re a good driver? Try this quick quiz.”
In many ways this applies to the real estate industry and what some of us apply to working out just where our markets are headed. Just like a motor vehicle we constantly check the fuel gauge to see how much fuel is in the tank.
You can’t rely on many of the commentators given at best their analysis is weak and lacks clarity and confirmation, given a large proportion is at best guess work. So how do some real estate agents try to better understand how and where the market is headed? Simply we go straight to a major information data source that being the dominant home loan companies who finance the property markets.
This week, I spoke with Alex Nochar who is Managing Director of Shore Financial who are one of the biggest lenders in our market demographic. First question – how many millions of dollars of housing loans do you presently have on your books that are pre – approved and actively looking to buy? The answer just over $270 million. Second question – what is the pre – approved value for Mosman and the adjoining areas? That number is just over $80 million.
That does not include the many applications that are awaiting approval and being processed although what we do take from this is that this is just one individual lender and does not include the big banks and or private banks. We will be attempting in coming weeks to find out just how many millions of dollars there are in pre – approved loans for Mosman real estate.
This tells us that there is still plenty of growth in our markets although it is quite surprising that one never hears of this method of better understanding our property markets. Can you imagine what the figure would be for the total Sydney area and how interesting this would be if the total numbers for each real estate demographic market were published on a weekly basis?
There is no clear patterns emerging across Sydney given some are experiencing strong stock levels and many others weak stock levels. For example, over the last four years we are seeing housing stock numbers declining in Mosman. This week there are 56 houses on the market, this time last years there were 65 houses on the market, the same week in 2013 there were 77 houses on the market and the same week in 2012 there were 120 houses on the market. In 2012 Mosman recorded 33 weeks with more than one hundred houses on the market. In 2015 it is looking like we won’t crack one hundred houses on the market once – the highest number this year so far has been 84 back in March.
With interest we should be watching the stock market in China which has lost approximately 40 per cent in the last three months, where when we see stock market corrections money is then diverted into real estate. The latest Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) annual report showed that the total value of investment proposals in 2013/14 soared to $167.4 billion which is an increase of 23.4 per cent. No surprises to note that China is now the biggest player foreign based buyer of Australian real estate with foreign investment in commercial and residential real estate doubling from $37.5 billion to $74.6 billion.
Recently a research paper was released that Chinese purchases totaled just 2 per cent of all transactions in 2014 according to data from the FIRB. Well that’s interesting although the real story is what the Australian Taxation Office reveals once they have completed their forensic investigation into illegal overseas acquisitions. Those who acquired property illegally have until 1 November 2015 to come forward and avoid prosecution. It will be very interesting to see how many are prosecuted and the numbers of apartments and houses that come back onto the market. I’m predicting that this number will be significant and illegal purchases will be much higher than first envisaged. Watch this space!
I wouldn’t be overly concerned with the recent use of that ‘recession’ word given it’s hard to see this happening anytime soon. We know that to technically be in recession the next two quarters in real GDP will need to return two quarters of negative growth in GDP. The next quarter’s GDP results are out on December 2 and the next on March 2 – so let’s wait until then before we start using that “R” word.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 65
• Number of houses on the market last week – 66
• Number of houses on the market this week – 56
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 47
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 47
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 49
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year –10
• Number of houses on the market last week – 4
• Number of houses on the market this week – 6
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 19
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 20
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 5
•Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 33
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 35
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 37
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Property markets need more truth, less dare: Robert Simeon

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Every time the Australian economy delivers a lacklustre growth data just like clockwork we start hearing that we can expect another correction in real estate prices as we are now fast tracking an inevitable recession – all a distinct possibility.
How quickly some forget that Australia has now successfully completed a record 24 years of consecutive economic growth. As is the case in Australia where real wages are down this is a global problem where I foresee that the household sector will struggle with the declining weak wage results. This is further evident with the data release this week identifying GDP growth for 2014/15 came in at 2.4% and nominal GDP growth at 1.8% for the 2014/15 financial year, which is the weakest growth in nominal GDP since 1961/62.
As a result of the wages decline what is even more alarming is when one examines stock levels we are witnessing the lowest ever levels despite a record low cash rate. For example, Mosman has 5,890 houses with just 63 on the market today which represents 1.069% of properties on the market and which is also quite common for the vast majority of Sydney suburbs.
Too many are sugar – coating the Sydney property market by focusing on the Sydney median house price, which keeps increasing, and not looking at the grass – roots property market by analysing individual niche market performances which paints an entirely different proposition. When you have individual property markets posting record low stock levels it’s hardly likely we will see significant price growth which is exactly what we are seeing today.
The reality being in Mosman is that presently we have 1.069% of vendors on the market with the remaining 98.931% of property owners not wanting to sell despite a record low cash rate that will almost certainly go lower in 2016. Much of the problem relates solely to job security where individual households are refusing to take on more debt which then has the markets flatlining.
Going on past market corrections which were brought about by unprecedented high turnover of properties by households which has not been the case in the majority of instances. We have seen unusual high turnover of properties by investors to the extent that we are now seeing parity being reached between tenants and investors in terms of rent. That’s good news for those renting given it appears that rental growth has peaked in Sydney where in some cases we are now seeing an oversupply of properties for rent.
This is a positive for the economy given the general rule of thumb is one – third rent, the next third own with a mortgage and the final third own with no mortgage. So it appears now that the Sydney investor market has peaked and we can now expect to see some tapering of prices as investors chase new market opportunities. Brisbane is the stand – out so we expect to see investors jumping all over that market from here on. In the perfect property world this is exactly how investor machinations should operate with Sydney and Melbourne peaking and entering re – calibration mode.
Another interesting thing to look out for is the Sydney vacancy rate which we expect to see grow significantly given the enormous investor movements across Sydney. We can also expect to see some investors flipping investment properties by taking their profits and then re – investing in the new growth markets where depending on when they bought into the market there have been very strong capital appreciation generated.
When the Australian economy produces a poor report card this then forces our elected politicians to concentrate on the much needed reforms that must be implemented as we are now twelve months out from the next Federal Election.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 80
• Number of houses on the market last week – 65
• Number of houses on the market this week – 66
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 61
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 42
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 49
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 4
• Number of houses on the market this week – 4
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 19
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
•Number of houses on the market this week – 5
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 29
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 35
For this week’s sales in Cremorne real estate, Cremorne Point real estate, Mosman real estate, Beauty Point real estate, Clifton Gardens real estate, Balmoral real estate, Neutral Bay real estate, Cammeray real estate.
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Why property markets just got a lot more interesting: Robert Simeon

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Another fascinating week with Australia experiencing a significant stock market correction followed by the National Reform Summit which in all probability won’t amount to anything given the responsibility rests with our politicians. When it comes to anything economic in Australia we see a typical allergy where they are too frightened to come into contact with these issues.
Since 2013, the internet population grew approximately 20% – from 2.4 billion to 3.2 billion people yet for some strange reason we still struggle to understand data, or is it that the data we should be seeing is withheld? Australia’s misunderstood property markets are a prime example – with Sydney well ahead of the country in terms of inaccuracy in reporting.
One of the main areas for concern to come from the National Reform Summit was productivity where many believe Australia has come to a grinding halt which is replicated with our present GDP growth rates. For some time now I have been carefully watching property growth rates which (wait for it) closely resemble our GDP results.
To further explain we closely looked at sales data from 2009 to 2014 for house and apartment sales in Seaforth, Mosman, Cremorne, Neutral Bay, Cammeray and Northbridge where the total number of households equates to 39,227.Source CoreLogic RP Data.
We need to bear in mind that when you closely examine individual suburb markets at five (5) per cent turnover per annum the market turnover is normal and slightly under-performing. When it gets to ten (10) % per annum turnover the market is considered strong and when the market hits fifteen (15) % turnover per annum that is a boom. The last time we witnessed the market hitting 15% was in 1988.
So we took the six year averages for sales and this is what we found.
<ul>
<li>Seaforth – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 120 houses which equates to 5.1% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Seaforth – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 16 apartments which equates to 4.7% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Mosman – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 312 houses which equates to 5.3% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Mosman – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 492 apartments which equates to 4.9% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Cremorne – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 62 houses which equates to 4.6% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Cremorne – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 278 apartments which equates to 5.0% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Neutral Bay – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 55 houses which equates to 4.95% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Neutral Bay – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 323 apartments which equates to 4.8% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Cammeray – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 56 houses which equates to 5.6% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Cammeray – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 147 apartments which equates to 5.5% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Northbridge – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 88 houses which equates to 4.3% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
<li>Northbridge – Average number of sales from 2009 to 2014 per annum – 28 apartments which equates to 5.5% of the total market on a per annum basis.</li>
</ul>
When one takes into account that the cash rate at the beginning of 2009 was 3.25% and dropping to 2.50 at the end of 2014 we would have expected the number of properties to be rapidly increasing – which has not been the case. Moreover this reaffirms that business is not doing that well given households are not that interested in taking on more debt, which certainly resonated with a lot that was presented at the National Reform Summit. . The burning question is what is Canberra going to do about this?
<h5>Mosman Houses Sold – Total Number 5,890 Houses</h5>
2009 – 303 2010 – 325 2011 – 264 2012 – 276 2013 – 355 2014 – 350
<h5>Mosman Apartments Sold – Total Number 10,020 Apartments</h5>
2009 – 523 2010 – 453 2011 – 474 2012 – 443 2013 – 543 2014 – 514
<h5>Cremorne Houses Sold – Total Number 1,135 Houses</h5>
2009 – 71 2010 – 65 2011 – 56 2012 – 56 2013 – 66 2014 – 59
<h5>Cremorne Apartments Sold – Total Number 5,481 Apartments</h5>
2009 – 339 2010 – 302 2011 – 288 2012 – 218 2013 – 267 2014 – 255
<h5>Neutral Bay Houses Sold – Total Number 1,109 Houses</h5>
2009 – 61 2010 – 69 2011 – 51 2012 – 51 2013 – 61 2014 – 40
<h5>Neutral Bay Apartments Sold – Total Number 6,638 Apartments</h5>
2009 – 411 2010 – 362 2011 – 287 2012 – 283 2013 – 308 2014 – 286
<h5>Cammeray Houses Sold – Total Number 1,275 Houses</h5>
2009 – 58 2010 – 50 2011 – 50 2012 – 56 2013 – 64 2014 – 61
<h5>Cammeray Apartments Sold – Total Number 2,610 Apartments</h5>
2009 – 156 2010 – 194 2011 – 156 2012 – 107 2013 – 135 2014 – 137
<h5>Northbridge Houses Sold – Total Number 1,914 Houses</h5>
2009 – 88 2010 – 63 2011 – 68 2012 – 89 2013 – 102 2014 – 94
<h5>Northbridge Apartments Sold – Total Number 504 Apartments</h5>
2009 – 32 2010 – 33 2011 – 20 2012 – 23 2013 – 35 2014 – 27
<h5>Seaforth Houses Sold – Total Number 2,317 Houses</h5>
2009 – 113 2010 – 109 2011 – 113 2012 – 121 2013 – 138 2014 – 127
<h5>Seaforth Apartments Sold – Total Number 334 Apartments</h5>
2009 – 21 2010 – 11 2011 – 10 2012 – 14 2013 – 17 2014 – 26 Source – CoreLogic RP Data
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 69
• Number of houses on the market last week – 53
• Number of houses on the market this week – 65
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 51
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 41
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 42
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
• Number of houses on the market this week – 4
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 15
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 15
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 4
•Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 36
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 25
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 30
 ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
 
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Data doesn’t lie when you keep misreading it: Robert Simeon

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Let’s look at the facts and decide where first of all we need to separate the investment property markets and the first home buyer markets from the family residence markets.
We also need to look at the current NSW Government mandate where they intend to merge councils to ensure that NSW keeps developing and driving residential construction to record levels never seen before. Premier Mike Baird is a smart man as he knows that the investor market has never been larger given the record stamp duty and land tax receipts. These are the new ‘rivers of gold’ that will in part fund this massive infrastructure spend.
According to Stockland chief executive ‘the Australian property sector is in the second quarter of what is often a seven – to – eight year housing cycle’. Now I have no problems with that and I agree given we all know what the intentions are of the NSW State government….it’s build – build – build to then generate tax – tax – tax.
We also now find ourselves in unchartered waters given we have never encountered a record low cash rate which could even go lower – another driver of the real estate market. Historically there have been two drivers to mortgage delinquency – increasing cash rates and unemployment. On that basis we can remove an increasing cash rate in the short term or quite possibly long term, although some are now warning property developers that they should be factoring in a price crunch.
Well that can’t happen given the property developers are concentrating on investors and the booming overseas market where 100 per cent of all ‘new’ developments can be sold to non – Australian residents.
Now the biggest conflict is Australia’s housing policy or better still our elected politicians who have no idea what they are talking about when they implement new policies – Federal treasurer Joe Hockey is the prime example.
Earlier this week he declared ‘that the crackdown on foreign investors illegally buying property in Australia could force down house prices.” Well for that to happen there would need to be thousands and thousands of properties flooding the market. Is he aware of something that we need to know?
This week Treasurer Joe Hockey announced new laws regulating property purchases by foreign investors and this clanger got my blood boiling. Mr Hockey said “foreign investment rules had not been significantly revised since their introduction 40 years ago.” Under the draft laws, penalties would be increased from $90,000 to $135,000 for serious breaches of residential real estate rules. Real estate agents, migration agents, lawyers and conveyancers who knowingly assist a foreign investor in breaching the rules will now be subject to both civil and criminal penalties.
Well Mr. Treasurer, all you need to do is enforce that all property buyers produce a tax file number and then you build your national Property Register and the Australian Taxation Office can record all transactions.
Now back to the “foreign investment rules had not significantly been revised since their introduction 40 years ago”. Back on 18 December 2008, the Australian Federal Government (for reasons only known to themselves) announced policy and administrative changes for foreign investors acquiring Australian real estate where they very kindly made it much easier from 2009 for foreign investors to acquire Australian real estate. This was a major announcement so I assume our esteemed treasurer completely overlooked this announcement when he went back over the past 40 years.
The existing requirement which allowed only 50 per cent of new dwellings to be sold to foreign persons in an ‘off – the – plan’ situation was changed to 100 per cent – on the proviso that developers market locally as well as overseas. Today we have overseas developers selling new developments exclusively overseas and they are not offered to Australian investors. Also a ‘new dwelling’ was defined as never previously occupied or sold. This now includes dwellings that were not sold by the developer but were rented out for no more than twelve months. I bet that has never been policed or followed up by the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB)?
They also implemented student visa holder residents in Australia are no longer subject to a $300,000 limit on the value of an established dwelling purchased as their principal place of residence. So students through their parents can buy waterfronts and the like? Temporary residents will not be required to notify FIRB of proposed acquisitions of an established dwelling for their own residence, any new dwellings and single blocks of residential land. Foreign – owned companies can now purchase established dwellings for the use of their Australian – based staff provided they sell or rent them if they are expected to remain vacant for more than six months.
And on and on it goes …….
So by now I am hoping that you are identifying the conflicting evidence that is coming out of Canberra. Why has the allowed foreign investor allocation for new dwellings been allowed to remain at 100 per cent where for 34 years it was set at 50 per cent?
<a href="/expert-insights/why-todays-chinese-property-investment-is-just-the-beginning-andrew-taylor">Why today’s Chinese property investment is just the beginning.</a> The questions that need to be asked is just why did Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan make such significant changes to best suit foreign buyers? Why has the ratio been left at 100 per cent given the strength of the Australian property market? A strong argument that if you want to keep this at 100 per cent then remove both Sydney and Melbourne CBD’s from the overseas shopping trolley.
This week we learned that Nine Entertainment has sold its Sydney headquarters to Hong Kong based developer Euro Properties for $147.5 million. The selling agent CBRE’s Matthew Ramsay said 17 bids had been received from local and international investors and developers. Mr Ramsay said “that foreign investment in the Australian property market was at an all – time high, bolstered by a lower Australian dollar.” I’d say the lower dollar helps and the real reason is that the overseas developers can (thanks to the Australian Government) sell the entire development off – shore to investors.
Oh and I wouldn’t hold your breath if you were thinking of buying one of the 400 or so apartments when the Nine Entertainment development is offered for sale.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 66
• Number of houses on the market last week – 47
• Number of houses on the market this week – 53
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 48
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 40
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 41
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
• Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 13
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 18
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 15
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
•Number of houses on the market this week – 4
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 31
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 25
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Why is property full of conflicting evidence? Robert Simeon

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I was left eating humble pie this week following comments I made in an interview that appeared in the Australian Financial Review pertaining to the federal government’s announcement that another six homes had been identified as being acquired illegally and a further 462 sales under investigation. 
My response was “It’s nothing more than a PR stunt and a distraction. It’s been done for feel-good cuddles” – how wrong was I.
Later that day, I received an email from the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) boss heading up this investigation which (politely) outlined the detail of their inquiry which clearly identified the magnitude of this investigation which earnestly commenced in May this year. Owners of property bought illegally must voluntarily contact the ATO prior to 1 November 2015 to receive an amnesty of not being prosecuted.
Now once and for all, we will find out exactly what’s been happening as I have been saying for quite some time that this is rife within the real estate industry. It will be fascinating to see what recommendations are made and then implemented. I have been a strong proponent of tax file numbers being provided to the ATO on the exchange of contracts for every residential sale. It will also be interesting to see if the 100% selling ratio for all new developments is brought back to 50% as it was in 2008? Opening up our property markets to international exposure has certainly led to rapid price growth from Asian property investors.
Australia had a record number of 1.7 million international tourists visit last year which included a 21% surge from China.
This inquiry is timely given the number of recent global warnings of money laundering in real estate where Sydney and Melbourne have been suggested as hot spots. Residential property in Australia is the single largest and most valuable asset class worth an estimated $5.7 trillion. Sydney now ranks third in the world for luxury residential annual price growth according to Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index. Sydney’s 12.5% growth now sits just behind Miami on 13.9% and Vancouver on 15% annual price growth. The report also identified that “a year ago eight cities recorded double – digit annual price growth. This quarter only four cities fell within this bracket.”
China’s shock devaluation significantly raises the risk that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced to cut the cash rate further which is a worst case scenario for the RBA. More particularly when this week Deputy Governor Philip Lowe said “Given the position of household balance sheets, it is unlikely to be in our long – term interest for a consumption boom to be financed by a pick –up in household borrowing.”
“Ever-rising house prices, relative to our incomes, do increase risks in the economy and are unlikely to make us better off as a nation. Rising housing prices are best matched by rising incomes.”
Then of course we will have to wait to see how many divestment orders are issued by the ATO where hopefully the owners won’t be allowed to “flip” which was the case when Villa del Mare was issued with the first divestment order a few months back.
Another interesting aspect will be closely watching the Sydney and Melbourne clearance rates now that it is very clear the role that the ATO is playing with their pursuit of illegal purchases given that I am not the only one who thought this was all political shirt-fronting.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 63
• Number of houses on the market last week – 48
• Number of houses on the market this week – 47
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 55
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 41
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 40
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 7
• Number of houses on the market last week – 3
• Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 14
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
•Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 36
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 26
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Federal government property taskforce not for feel-good cuddles: Robert Simeon

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<h2 class="post_title"> </h2>
Every year, as Sydney hits winter we can expect the inevitable property market predictions to come in thick and fast. Now before we get into the nitty gritty of these predictions there are a few observations that I made when I read these somewhat bizarre predictions.
Let’s look at some facts – the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released their latest data on Residential Property Prices in March 2015 which showed that the total value of Australia’s 9.500 million residential dwellings had increased to $5.500 trillion. At the end of the March quarter 2015 the ABS also advised that household net worth was $8,090.9 billion so we are talking big numbers here.
Researcher BIS Shrapnel noted that house prices (I assume this includes the investor apartment market too) have soared by 45% since 2012 – and they don’t expect a correction to arrive until 2017. Because in 2017 they are expecting the cash rate to start increasing – which I don’t agree with as I expect we will have a low cash rate for quite a few years to come.
A recent PwC study found that more than one – third of Australia was enduring recession conditions as the economy is increasingly driven by a small group of regions. The PwC analysis found about 20% of the national income was now produced in just 10 out of 2,214 locations across Australia, with Sydney, Melbourne and WA’s iron ore belt in the Pilbara among the dominant areas. 
It is also worth noting that Queensland and NSW are on a massive infrastructure spend with Victoria not that far behind.
For those intently following the Sydney infrastructure model, I suggest that you read<a href="https://www.strategy.planning.nsw.gov.au/sydney/the-plan/#section-224&amp;265" target="_blank"> Your Future Sydney</a> – “The Government must accelerate the delivery of new housing in Sydney to meet the needs of a bigger population and to satisfy a growing demand for different types of housing. Making sure that Sydney will have adequate shelter for its future population is a high priority of this Plan.
Over the next 20 years, the population in Sydney will grow much faster than in the last 20 years. Projections indicate that Sydney will need around 664,000 additional homes over the next 20 years. 1 – New housing will be needed in Greenfield locations and the established urban area. Providing housing in a variety of sizes, types and locations will be essential to meeting Sydney’s future housing need. Increasing housing supply will boost economic activity and generate viable infrastructure and business investment opportunities.
Sydney’s house prices are high compared with other Australian capital cities, 2 – and while house prices are the result of consumer demand, governments can help to put downward pressure on prices. Accelerating the supply and the variety of housing across Sydney, such as apartments and townhouses, will make it easier for people to find homes to suit their lifestyle and budget.”
It is also worth noting that the 664,000 additional new homes will be of the strata title variety with many high density subdivisions of air space to be contained mainly on the transport corridors. The Baird Government is well aware that NSW has fallen well behind where present reports have Sydney at approximately 140,000 new homes short of where it needs to be.
When these huge infrastructure models come to fruition which one would assume we will find ourselves somewhere around the 2017 mark – so it makes plenty of sense that investors will be watching this massive construction phase with great interest. By then the councils will have been merged into the new larger councils and we will see major high density subdivisions being rolled out across Sydney.
I have been reliably advised that the Abbott Government will not be changing the foreign ownership laws so foreign buyers can acquire 100% of all new developments – and we need to know that there are plenty of foreign buyers wanting to invest in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and regional areas.
Mosman house levels are now down over 50% on recent years where this week we hit 36 houses on the market which is the lowest in living memory – so no correction happening here as is also the case in the vast majority of suburbs across Sydney.
At the end of the day despite what some may predict the Sydney real estate market is all about that old mathematical equation supply V demand. With the easing of foreign ownership rules the Australian property market is now an international market and that’s where the demand is coming from.
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 62
• Number of houses on the market last week – 43
• Number of houses on the market this week – 36
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 56
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 39
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 43
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 4
• Number of houses on the market this week – 3
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 12
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 12
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 16
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 3
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
• Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 39
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 25
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Property is just a simple mathematical equation: Robert Simeon

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The Australian property markets find themselves in an unprecedented quandary with record low cash rates that have driven investment property prices in Sydney and Melbourne to record levels. The problem as I see it is that it is highly unlikely that such dizzy heights can be maintained, so that said one can assume that prices should start plateauing. 
The problem with that scenario is that given the present market conditions this is highly unlikely as property investors are only interested in Sydney and Melbourne real estate.
The owner occupier property market is much slower with stock levels at all-time lows which can be attributed to the fact that businesses are no longer paying cash bonuses preferring to reward staff with shares. What this has done is take billions of dollars from the owner occupier property markets which explains in principle why the owner occupier markets are so slow.
Nobody can really explain why property investors are only interested in Melbourne and Sydney especially when Australia is experiencing an unprecedented population explosion. This becomes even more confusing when we hear that Australia’s east coast is the destination expected to feel the full brunt of this population explosion.
This year I have been in dialogue with Richardson &amp; Wrench Projects where I have attended some information seminars to learn more about this fascinating investor market. The problem with real estate agents is that our knowledge is always contained within a particular postcode, hence a reluctance to look outside our comfort zone which is the very same mindset as property investors.
So the first question I wanted to know was where are the next best areas to invest outside Sydney and Melbourne, that are more much affordable with strong capital growth, excellent rental returns and with strong depreciation allowances. My question was answered immediately with two areas – Newcastle and Brisbane – well, that makes sense as they are both on the east coast with strong population forecasts.
With that in mind it was off to Brisbane to have a look around and see just why Brisbane is considered the next area to chase property investor returns. The first thing you notice is their road infrastructure is superior to Sydney’s with nowhere near the traffic congestion. Just like what we are now seeing with NSW where government is now on a record infrastructure spend, although in NSW we keep adding a new lane to infrastructure that was only constructed ten years ago. The government has allocated a further 120 billion dollars for infrastructure over the next three decades.
A new international airport and the big star attraction is the new Las Vegas style $4.000 billion casino – in many instances the South Bank area (which is the area I liked the most) reminded me of what’s happening at Barangaroo on Sydney Harbor. Although at a fraction of the price.
One of the most interesting points that really resonated with me was that the Richardson &amp; Wrench Projects team told me that they actually reject 90 per cent of projects that fail their strict criteria – which was evidenced in their project investment reports which are about sixty pages of research data. Investors in Sydney and Melbourne usually get a one or two page report if they are lucky which always have the usual disclaimers.
So what happens to the ninety per cent of developments that were rejected was my next question? Well, they lure those unsuspecting property investors and stitch them up which explains why property investors stick to the areas that sit well within their comfort zones – even though they know they are paying top dollar.
Australians love investing in property which explains why so much is written about bubbles, crashes and fear factor frenzies. So if you are contemplating stepping out of your comfort zone and looking for an investment area to watch closely we would recommend Brisbane – it’s a very interesting exercise especially for those who insist that you only invest in Sydney and Melbourne. I am the first to admit that this week’s visit to Brisbane has completely changed my property investment train of thought.
It’s important to note that Australia is changing (so must our perceptions) with the latest Bureau of Statistics projections now have Melbourne as Australia’s biggest growing city. Melbourne is tracking to become the country’s biggest city in 2056 and has also overtaken Western Australia to now be Australia’s fastest growing state.
MOSMAN – 2088
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 74
• Number of houses on the market last week – 46
• Number of houses on the market this week – 43
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 57
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 43
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 39
CREMORNE – 2090
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 11
• Number of houses on the market last week – 6
• Number of houses on the market this week – 4
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year –11
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 8
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 12
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
* Number of houses on the market this time last year – 3
• Number of houses on the market last week – 2
•Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 30
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 39
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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Searching for the next investor hot spots? Robert Simeon

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That pesky property bubble is mainly contained to the investors chasing yields and taking advantage of a chronic under-supply which is driving up rents – well it was however, we are now starting to see rents flat lining given supply has significantly increased.
New lending initiatives are quickly changing the investor landscape where I suspect it will be a very long time before we see lenders offering 90 per cent loans as we are now seeing lending ratios sitting more around the 70% mark. <a href="/expert-insights/overseas-buyers-will-support-sydney-house-prices-during-apra-crackdown-nab">Overseas buyers will support Sydney house prices during APRA crackdown: NAB</a>; it is fair to say that the federal government won’t be tweaking the foreign buyer ratios (presently at 100 per cent) anytime soon.
There is a reason for this; Australia’s population is set to hit 40 million people by 2056. In order to meet this demand we will see the greatest infrastructure spending in Australia’s history given it’s been calculated that by 2056 Australia will need a further 1,100,000 apartments. Across Australia that means an additional 27,000 apartments each year for the next 41 years, it is expected Sydney and Melbourne will do the majority of the heavy lifting. This also plainly identifies why the Baird government wants to amalgamate the councils to ensure that these new developments keep getting approved.
The message is quite clear that if you want to reside in close proximity to the CBD you will have to live with an avalanche of high density developments.
This week the residential data from the 34th Property Directions Survey was released which is an industry based group comprising property experts – Valuers, Fund Managers, Property Analysts and Property Financiers.
<ul>
<li>58% of respondents stated that Sydney residential property was in or entering a bubble, while 53%t of the respondents believe that the Melbourne property market is in the same position. Seventy per cent of the survey respondents do not believe that the Brisbane residential market was in a bubble.</li>
<li>The majority of the respondents also believe residential property prices will continue to rise for 6 to 12 months. Fifty – three per cent of respondents believe that Sydney residential property prices will continue to rise for either 6 or 12 months with 26% stating 18 months. Respondents are more certain in their predictions for Melbourne residential property with 76%seeing prices continuing to rise for 6 to 12 months.</li>
<li>In 2016, Sydney residential property is seen as reaching the top of the property cycle and moving past the top in 2017. In 2016 respondents see Melbourne residential property having passed the top of the cycle but remaining close to the top through to 2017. Brisbane residential property is seen to be just nearing the top of the cycle.</li>
<li>All respondents to the Property Directions Survey see low interest rates as either a significant or very significant driver of demand for residential property in Sydney, while 95% also point to foreign investment being significant or very significant.</li>
<li>Respondents list a number of other factors they also believe play a role in increasing demand in Sydney, such as population growth, low supply over the past decade and the trend towards smaller households.</li>
<li>The major drivers are considered to be similar for the Melbourne residential property market however 94% see foreign investment as a significant or very significant driver and 87% sight low interest rates as significant to very significant.</li>
<li>A large majority of respondents see low interest rates as the main driver of demand and prices for Brisbane and Perth residential property; however this view is not as strong as it is for Sydney and Melbourne. The majority of survey respondents do not view foreign investment as a significant or very significant factor in driving demand in Brisbane or Perth, but believe negative gearing plays a bigger role.</li>
<li>Most respondents believe both interest rates and inflation will remain similar for next year, while moving higher in the next three years.</li>
<li>It’s a different story with foreign investment, with a small majority of respondents believing levels will remain similar for the next six months. Respondents are less certain over the next 12 months, but most see foreign investment at similar or higher levels. Respondents are even more uncertain about the outlook for 2018,</li>
<li>Some respondents listed current or emerging factors which they believe may have an impact on the Australian property market. Factors listed include a slowing Chinese economy, any increase in the unemployment rate and potential changes to foreign investment or immigration rules.</li>
</ul>
So the eastern seaboard is where we will see the majority of the new developments with NSW leading the way. This again will be investor led although it would be reasonable to suggest that with such a huge apartment platform the house prices will continue to rise with less single residential housing being built.
With that in mind it’s scary to think where prices will go for houses within a 15 kilometre radius of the Sydney CBD. Through the roof springs to mind.
As for that pesky property bubble – it won’t be doing any damage when the vast majority of suburbs across Sydney are posting record low stock levels. When markets are booming (or bubbling along) you see record stock levels which is the complete opposite to what we are seeing across Sydney at the present.
<h4>MOSMAN – 2088</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 85
• Number of houses on the market last week – 55
• Number of houses on the market this week – 46
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 63
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 41
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 43
<h4>CREMORNE – 2090</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
• Number of houses on the market last week – 7
• Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 11
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 8
<h4>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h4>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 9
• Number of houses on the market last week – 3
• Number of houses on the market this week – 2
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 42
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 29
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 30
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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Living with an avalanche of high density development: Robert Simeon

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I’m struggling to find a time when the bureaucrats and politicians struggled as much as they presently are when trying to define what exactly is happening to the Sydney property markets – please note that I have used plural as against the popular and misrepresented singular definition.
Australia’s head cashier Joe Hockey is having an absolute shocker given he hails from a family that has a rich real estate heritage. For example, last week he stated that more houses were needed to fix the home affordability issue. “I like many others, if you have a home, if you’re already there with a mortgage; you wonder how your children are going to get into it.” Well Joe, for starters I would immediately slash the foreign buying policy where you allow 100% of all new housing developments to be sold offshore to foreign buyers.
Then one week later announced that he “totally understands” housing in Sydney and Melbourne is expensive and advised first home buyers to “get a good job that pays good money. ”If you go back 10 years first home buyers represented 10% of the overall market – today they are struggling to record a 5% market participation. The Sydney and Melbourne property markets are overwhelmingly being driven by property investors and foreign buyers.
The real truth of the matter is that the Coalition and ALP don’t care about the buyers, or where they come from for that matter, this is all about strengthening the economy where real estate is now doing all the heavy lifting. The crux of the matter is that the property sector now contributes more to Australian gross domestic product (GDP) than mining. The property sector is estimated to generate 11.5% of GDP, employs 1.1 million Australians and pays $72.1 billion in state, federal and local real estate taxes each year.
Then we have Australia’s head teller Glenn Stevens pointing at another rate cut due to a weak economy given that the Australian economy is now weaker than forecast two years ago. In 2013 the projection was that the economy would be growing at a rate of 2.5% to 4% although by mid-2015 it will be lucky to post a growth rate of 2.5%. Stevens also commented this week that he is concerned about Sydney’s booming house prices – you see he used the term house although houses in certain parts of Sydney are not doing that well when compared to apartments.
Our research division has been recording some interesting Mosman ‘house’ sales.
<ul>
<li>Stanley Avenue Mosman sold in 2010 for $12.000 and resold in 2015 for $12.300</li>
<li>Coronation Avenue Mosman sold in 2012 for $4.200 and resold in 2015 for $4.125</li>
<li>Botanic Road Mosman sold in 2013 for $2.750 and resold in 2014 for $2.550</li>
<li>Parriwi Road (apartment) sold in 2010 for $1.050 and resold in 2014 for $1.010</li>
<li>Parriwi Road (apartment) sold in 2010 for $2.250 and resold in 2014 for $2.150</li>
<li>Bradleys Head Road sold in 2007 for $5.400 and resold in 2015 for $5.100</li>
<li>Raglan Street Mosman sold in 2006 for $4.500 and resold in 2015 for $4.750</li>
</ul>
The problem is purely that house prices are bundled as against separating houses from apartments and investors from owner occupiers. Let’s not start on what part the foreign buyers play in this equation given nobody has really bothered to measure this participation rate but I would add that it’s huge and much, much higher than the federal government ever envisaged (when they do get around to looking).
Glenn Stevens was using the HSBC research that found Australian house prices had risen 24 per cent in the past three years, though the gains had been mostly confined to Sydney and Melbourne – so why then call this Australian house prices? Sydney had jumped 39 per cent and Melbourne prices were up 22 per cent bringing the average price growth for the rest of the country at 10 per cent.
The real problem Australia is facing is getting the economy stimulated and thus far all the monetary measures have been a dismal failure. Yet again, the problem is contained directly in Canberra and the refusal to implement reform so on that basis I can see where Glenn Stevens is coming from.
Cast your mind back to 2008 when Ken Henry presented the Henry Tax Review (the Rudd government held on to it until 2010) – we need to remember what Ken Henry said at the time “Ken Henry warns of looming taxation crisis”, and said that need to change is urgent. In 2014, he warned that the Abbott government urgently needs a tax and welfare package to head off an imminent budget crisis.
Well we have a budget crisis and no tax reform and as Ken Henry put it “there will be a day of reckoning.” One only has to ask a simple question – where would the Australian economy be today had the Henry Tax Review been implemented?
So what we have is politicians only interested in re – election so any thought of reform is immediately removed until we get hit with a major economic downturn. The Henry Tax Review was designed to drive the economy and therefore minimise the likelihood of another economic downturn as experienced with the Global Financial Crisis. Governments don’t pay payroll tax however if you asked businesses what they would do with the savings if it were to be abolished – you would see a much different Australian economy than we are seeing presently.
<h5>MOSMAN – 2088</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 85
• Number of houses on the market last week – 61
• Number of houses on the market this week – 55
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 66
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 38
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 41
<h5>CREMORNE – 2090</h5>
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
• Number of houses on the market last week – 6
• Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 9
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 11
<h5>NEUTRAL BAY – 2089</h5>
* Number of houses on the market this time last year – 5
• Number of houses on the market last week – 5
• Number of houses on the market this week – 3
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 46
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 23
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 29
 
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
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It’s about the economy not the property buyers: Robert Simeon

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Now more than ever I’m totally convinced that the vast majority of property commentators subscribe to the theory of inductive reasoning when they want to get their points across pertaining to the Australian residential property markets.  
Wikipedia describes “inductive reasoning (as opposed to deductive reasoning or abductive reasoning) is reasoning in which the premises seek to supply strong evidence for (not absolute proof of) the truth of the conclusion. While the conclusion of a deductive argument is certain, the truth of the conclusion of an inductive argument is probable, based upon the evidence given.”
Now here is the dilemma that the prime minister faces with the Australian property markets and whilst nobody talks about this I’d be letting you down if I didn’t tackle this highly controversial topic of conversation.
Now the problem was created by Kevin Rudd when he was prime minister and for some strange reason (and I mean strange) his actions have not been corrected given these actions lie at the heart of Australia’s ongoing property boom – in my opinion this is disastrous policy.
In December 2008 property developers were restricted where only 50% of a new development could be sold off the plan to foreign investors. Kevin Rudd then changed the ratio to 100% and that figure is still in place today. Just as strange is that nobody is debating this figure where given the strength of the real estate markets today I would be happier to see these developments restricted to say 25% or even lower.
Even stranger was when in 2008 – 09 Kevin Rudd removed all foreign ownership rules meaning that foreign buyers could acquire pre – existing property which was shut down again in late 2010. I would argue that this opened the door to foreigners buying pre – existing properties and this still continues today given that everyone is only too well aware that the federal government does not track real estate transactions.
The sad reality is that today nobody knows just how many properties have been illegally acquired given the government is doing absolutely nothing about this. They will say that they are using inductive reasoning to solve this almighty mess. The question that really needs to be asked is why does the Australian government still allow 100% of off – the – plan sales to go offshore which is driving the prices up, given foreign buyers will always pay a premium price to secure Australian residential real estate?
An obvious response from property developers would be that they would stop developing given overseas buyers are the strongest peak market for new residential properties. No doubt they would be in all probability active in political donations too. Property developers are posting record profits thanks to 100% of off the plan sales being allowed by the Australian government to be sent offshore. This also explains why Chinese developers are now buying up the majority of development sites given an entire development can be sold in just a matter of hours. This of course is the major ingredient that is driving property prices for new properties to record highs – yet the federal government is saying and more importantly doing nothing to correct this 2008 – 09 horrific property policy.
Recently I touched on Lots of positives from discussing negative policies although nothing happens in Canberra. The NSW government is in the process of merging councils, given they stand in the way of new developments when today we have a massive housing shortage. The Mike Baird government has embarked on a plan that will see 664,000 new homes built by 2031 – developers know full well that the vast majority will be sold offshore given the absurd 100% rule permits this.
Making matters worse is that the Abbott government constantly dismisses the need for their government to have a housing minister.
The Property Council of Australia announced this week that the property sector now contributes more to Australian gross domestic product than mining. The property sector is estimated to generate 11.5% of GDP, employs 1.1 million Australians and pays $72.1 billion in state, federal and local real estate taxes each year.
Of course the inductive reasoning argument from Canberra will be along the lines of Infrastructure Australia predicts Sydney’s population will reach 6.1 million in 2031. In 2015 the population estimates come in at around the 4.9 million which is an extra 1.2 million people which works out at 80,000 per year. 
Maybe we should add to that statistic that all the landlords will be foreign buyers living overseas – or is that inductive reasoning? Whatever the reasoning the question needs to be asked just why the 100% ratio has not been wound back? 
We all know that this is disastrous policy unless you’re a property developer (and real estate agent of course.)
 
 MOSMAN – 2088
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 85
• Number of houses on the market last week – 65
• Number of houses on the market this week – 68
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 64
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 47
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 46
 
CREMORNE – 2090
• Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
• Number of houses on the market last week – 5
• Number of houses on the market this week – 8
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 16
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 13
 
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
* Number of houses on the market this time last year – 4
• Number of houses on the market last week – 6
• Number of houses on the market this week – 7
• Number of apartments on the market this time last year– 44
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 29
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 26
Robert Simeon is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.  He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000. 
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/2015/05/29/burning-property-question-tony-abbott-must-answer/" target="_blank"> </a>
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The burning property question Tony Abbott must answer: Robert Simeon

Perth’s new apartment market recorded its strongest quarter of sales since Q4 2021, with 412 apartments sold in Q1 2026 and a record quarterly sold value of $537 million, according to Urbis’ latest Apartment Essentials results.

Urbis said the March quarter result reflects strong, highly product‑specific demand across both ends of the market, from more attainable projects delivering at scale, through to premium stock being absorbed by equity‑rich downsizers.&nbsp;

David Cresp, Partner at Urbis, said the key story in Perth is not demand, it is the market’s ability to convert demand into delivered housing.&nbsp;

“This is the strongest sales quarter since Q4 2021, and it reinforces that demand in Perth is real and it’s local,” David Cresp said. “But the task now is delivery, turning that demand into projects that can actually be built and completed.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=110291 project_image_fid=302785]

<h2>Affordable product leads, premium demand remains resilient</h2>

Sales in Q1 were led by more affordable projects, with The Boulevard (SKS Group) recording 115 sales in the quarter, the presentation noting this is only the second time a single project has surpassed 100 quarterly sales. The project was able to offer more affordable housing product right next to a train station.&nbsp;

Palmyra West (Finbar) also delivered strong results with 28 sales in Q1, following 84 sales in Q4, with an average price of under $800,000, underscoring depth of demand for well‑located, attainable new stock.&nbsp;

At the premium end, Urbis said downsizer demand is continuing, with the results highlighting Romeo (Applecross, Finbar) recording 75 sales and reaching almost 50% sold in one quarter.

Jual (Shenton Park, Celsius Property) also posted a strong quarter with 28 sales, reaching 39% sold in one quarter.

Urbis noted that Perth apartment demand is not speculative, not investor‑led, and not uniform, describing it as localised, often equity‑driven and highly product‑specific, a pattern reflected in the polarisation between strong “attainable” performers and premium downsizer product.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148957 project_image_fid=364102]

<h2>Prices underpinned by costs, and the delivery risk is growing</h2>

Urbis said pricing pressure is cost not demand‑driven: construction costs and delivery risk are now a central constraint, with the results noting build costs remain elevated and volatile, and that energy, fuel and labour uncertainty weigh on feasibility.

David Cresp said a growing challenge for private Build‑to‑Sell developers is simply securing a builder in the current environment.

“Developers are really feeling the pressure from a building market that was operating at capacity and securing a builder is challenging,” David Cresp said, adding that even where a builder can be secured, “trying to get to the price that makes the development financially viable is incredibly challenging in the current market.”&nbsp;

Urbis’ broader WA commentary also notes that industry remains at or above capacity with lot and housing creation, and that many builders are limiting new sales to manage stretched workforces and fixed‑price contract pressures, conditions that flow directly into apartment feasibility and delivery timing.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=108869 project_image_fid=317905]

<h2>Supply: improving later, but still constrained, and Perth lags eastern benchmarks</h2>

While near‑term supply remains constrained, Urbis’ forecast shows completions lifting “Supply is forecast to be back above 1,500 apartments per annum for the first time since 2019”, with 1,775 completions forecast for 2026, and volumes remaining above that level over the following years.&nbsp;

Looking further ahead, completions are forecast to reach 2,500 in 2028, with the report noting 32% of that total is social/affordable, reflecting the role of government‑supported delivery in rebuilding the pipeline.&nbsp;

However, Urbis said Perth remains behind comparable markets on pipeline scale. In a national comparison of projects under construction, the report shows under construction Perth Build‑to‑Sell (BTS) at 3,446 apartments versus the Gold Coast at 7,922. Mr Cresp said “The challenge for Perth is how to we grow the delivery pipeline”.

Urbis’ conclusion is that Perth’s market is increasingly defined by product discipline and delivery certainty, with the research identifying “delivery certainty is key” and calling out builder risk and procurement models as core success factors, alongside “timing and staging”.&nbsp;

Joel Robinson

Perth apartment sales hit strongest pace since late 2021 as builder capacity tightens

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sammut-developments">Sammut Group</a> has secured development approval for its latest Brisbane apartment project, marking the Sydney developer’s next step in expanding its Queensland pipeline following the success of its debut Gold Coast development, Coast.

The approved project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/44-glen-road-toowong-qld-4066">44 Glen Road, </a><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/toowong-qld-4066">Toowong</a> will deliver a 15-storey riverfront apartment building with 42 residences, significantly increasing the scale of the site’s previous approval for a smaller luxury scheme. Designed by Bureau^proberts, the development will comprise a mix of predominantly four-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments positioned to maximise Brisbane River and city views.

Sammut Director Julian Sammut said the group had been actively searching Brisbane for several years before identifying Toowong as the right fit.

“Brisbane was the right step for Sammut,” Sammut said.

“With the success of Coast we thought we should definitely look to do more in Queensland alone. We then pushed up to look at Brisbane. We've been looking for I'd say two to three years actually and it was hard to find the right location.”

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Sammut said suburbs including New Farm and Teneriffe were considered before the group ultimately focused on Toowong due to its strong downsizer demographic and limited supply of developable riverfront land.

The site was acquired off-market after what Sammut described as a lengthy negotiation and planning process, with the developer pursuing an uplift to the original approval.

“We are DA approved now which is very exciting,” Sammut said.

“We've had our change approval come through and we've obviously doubled the height, 15 storeys plus rooftop. We've got 42 amazing apartments that are going to be coming to market soon.”

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Bureau^proberts said the design responds to Toowong’s evolving urban character, balancing contemporary apartment living with the area’s established residential identity.

“A place where traditional Queensland living has taken place for centuries; Toowong is seeing a shift of contemporary influence, commercial and retail hubs mixed with well-considered residential offerings – all the while maintaining its character and charm,” the architect noted in planning documents submitted to Brisbane City Council.

The architecture practice said the project’s form was shaped by its riverfront setting, flood considerations, neighbouring building scales, and view corridors.

“They said the mix of four and two-bedroom apartments capture the ‘fundamental qualities of Queenslander living,’ translated into the context of a contemporary subtropical building.”

The development sits just off Coronation Drive within walking distance of Toowong’s retail precinct and the upgraded Regatta ferry terminal, while also benefiting from proximity to the incoming green bridge connection to West End. Sammut said the accessibility and amenity offering were central to the site’s appeal.

The approval adds to growing residential activity along the Toowong riverfront, joining nearby projects including Consolidated Properties’ Monarch Residences and Spyre Group’s ARC Residences.

Sammut secures approval for debut Brisbane apartment development in Toowong

Developer Lanevick is heading back into Sydney’s apartment market after focusing more heavily on the luxury townhouse and terrace sector in recent years.

Lanevick, founded and directed by Steve Maroun, is expecting to receive approval in the coming months for a new apartment development in Gladesville, with the aim to launch it to the market later this year.

The 51-apartment project, designed by Studio Johnston, will comprise a mix of one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments positioned toward the Hunters Hill downsizer market.

“Traditionally it’s been difficult for people in that market to downsize because there just hasn’t been the right product available,” Maroun said.

“We’re targeting buyers who might have 30 to 40 per cent of their house value sitting in the bank after downsizing.

“They still want good spacious entertaining areas, they still want quality design, but they also want flexibility and the ability to enjoy life a bit more after working hard for a long time.”

The project sits near Boronia Park and within close proximity to the Parramatta River foreshore, an area Maroun says offers more of a Hunters Hill lifestyle than a traditional apartment precinct.

“From a lifestyle perspective, it’s really more Hunters Hill than Gladesville,” Maroun said. “You’re close to the foreshore, close to parklands, and still connected back into the village precinct.”

From level four and above, apartments will capture water views&nbsp;toward Sydney Harbour. Communal amenity will include rooftop entertaining areas, wellness spaces, and a gym tailored toward owner-occupier buyers.

“We’ve really designed these apartments around that buyer coming from the Hunters Hill LGA and what they’re actually looking for in their next chapter.”

The proposed development has also been designed to respond to the changing character of the broader Gladesville town centre, where a growing number of mixed-use and residential proposals are expected to emerge over the coming years.

“Gladesville presented a rare opportunity to deliver a genuinely design-led residential project within an evolving lifestyle precinct, just moments from the growing Gladesville town centre, and we’ve approached the project with a strong focus on architecture, liveability and long-term community value,” Maroun said.

Maroun said Lanevick saw a first-mover advantage within the precinct as planning controls continue to evolve to accommodate greater housing density.

“We think there’s a real opportunity there that hasn’t really been serviced properly yet,” he said.

“There’s going to be a broader evolution of the whole Gladesville village precinct over time, particularly with more activation and mixed-use outcomes.”

The Venus Street proposal will include a commercial and retail component at ground level designed to contribute to that evolving streetscape activation.

“A big part of the thinking was how do you activate that area properly and create more vibrancy and amenity, which is what Hunters Hill has been looking for,” Maroun said.

Lanevick’s focus since 2020 has largely been on smaller-scale luxury townhouse and terrace developments. The developer recently completed Royale Randwick, also designed by Studio Johnston, where prices reached $3.65 million. The project was featured in the UDIA NSW 2026 Professional Development Prospectus and was also named a finalist for Development of the Year.

&nbsp;

Lanevick to cater for Hunters Hill downsizers with new Gladesville apartment development

Property developer One Living, backed by former Macquarie banker turned investment manager Chris Green’s investment firm, has unveiled plans to bring more institutional capital into housing to help address the national supply crisis.

The New York-based investor has focused his firm, GreenPoint Partners, on addressing the supply shortage hitting middle market housing in Australia.

It is backing the new One Living business to develop more than 1000 units along the eastern seaboard. The new firm is starting with a development on Mona Vale Road, on the border of Mona Vale and Pymble, in Sydney’s Northern Beaches, with around 140 apartments planned. They are eyeing off more sites across the city.

With cost pressures rising in the industry, One Living’s model is to be a vertically integrated developer-builder, so it can respond directly to the housing gap by removing the cost inefficiencies embedded in traditional residential delivery.

“We are building a platform designed to operate at scale and starting in a market where there’s a clear need for quality, attainable housing,” One Living joint managing director Joseph Scuderi said.

“It’s that missing middle – it’s that attainable end of housing… that’s what most Australians invest into and what Australians can actually afford.”

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="798dfa93-4941-4db6-a696-31e9dc18e81c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.31.50%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=mKBqi5C_DmeiXS.AtJkcR8LQIxqCqmFi" />

GreenPoint Partners brings years of experience assembling and scaling real estate operating businesses across major markets. And Green sees a big opportunity in Australia.

“For its size, sophistication and importance to the community, Australia’s living sector has remained largely under-institutionalised, which represents significant opportunity,” Green said. “GreenPoint identified that gap, assembled the right team, and is backing One Living to build a platform that is aligned to market needs.”

Green said being a builder-developer would give the company the capacity and flexibility it required to deliver reasonably-priced homes.

“We want it to be at that attainable level; not super high end luxury but at that attainable level,” he said.

<img alt="Mona Vale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="74a5344a-4b26-4d4a-ada3-056b1220be77" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-28%20at%202.32.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=vY8hXHO4reBMdO8ZXMWCNtGZJofUPQ3j" />

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One Living will undertake a component of affordable housing in its schemes, which it will own and operate, and it could also run build-to-rent on some sites.

Green praised local policy settings.

“The NSW government is being very supportive, strategic and pragmatic in terms of how do we generate more supply of housing,” he said. “We think it’s actually positive for development and the bit that’s been lacking at that attainable level is that it’s lots of relatively small private developers, whereas we want to create an institutional platform.”

One Living is also&nbsp;looking at high-density projects and could take on more institutional funding in the future.

“The way we will be able to achieve economies of scale is through size,” Green added.

One Living enters Sydney's new apartment market with Northern Beaches site acquisition

It's been several years since there's been an opportunity to buy a brand new townhome in Melbourne's coastal suburb of Mordialloc. Even apartment developments in recent times have been few and far between in the area.

Local developer LDS Property identified the gap in new housing, securing a site on White Street, directly opposite&nbsp;Woodlands Golf Club Mordialloc. They've recently launched&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/wm-residences-mordialloc-102-white-street-mordialloc-vic-3195">WM Residences</a>, just 13 townhouses which they have already started building.

Projects by Buxton Director Heath Thompson, who is selling WM Residences, says the townhouses x that perfect middle ground be

"Mordialloc residents have had limited options to downsize within the suburb, often forcing them to look elsewhere despite long-standing ties to the area," Thompson says.

"With very little comparable new supply coming to market, projects like WM Residences are well placed, particularly as buyers look to capitalise on current conditions amid constrained supply."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6109]

The development, designed by regarded architecture firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ewert-leaf">Ewert Leaf</a>,&nbsp;adopts a deliberately restrained architectural approach, focusing on simplicity, durability and liveability rather than overt design gestures.

The boutique scale is central to the offering. With only 13 three-bedroom residences, each home is configured to prioritise functional layouts and everyday use, supported by private terraces and secure two-car garages.

Ewert Leaf’s design response leans into a calm, neutral material palette. Interiors are defined by oak flooring, white walls and soft finishes, creating a consistent and understated backdrop. The approach avoids trend-driven detailing in favour of longevity, with an emphasis on natural light and spatial clarity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6110]

Beyond aesthetics, the homes are designed to meet contemporary performance expectations. Each residence targets a minimum 6-star energy rating, incorporating double glazing, comprehensive insulation and all-electric Bosch appliances.

The project’s location supports a walkable coastal lifestyle, sitting within close proximity to Mordialloc’s foreshore, Main Street retail strip and the train station. Local cafés and dining venues, including Suburbia Deli and Hendriks Café, are within a short walk, reinforcing the area’s established neighbourhood character.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134646 project_image_fid=6116]

While <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/mordialloc-vic-3195">Mordialloc</a> is often defined by its beach and pier, the project taps into other areas of day to day living, offering easy access to local food, casual dining and transport, rather than positioning itself purely as a lifestyle retreat.

WM Residences reflects a continued trend across Melbourne’s coastal suburbs towards smaller-scale, design-led townhouse developments, particularly on infill sites where proximity to amenity is already established.

With construction commenced prior to its market entry, the project aligns with a growing preference among buyers for developments with visible progress and defined delivery timeframes.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134646]

Robert Simeon

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