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Two useful statistics for measuring the health of the local market, particularly the private sale one, are the number of days a dwelling is on the market for and the amount the vendor discounts the property over the course of the advertising campaign.
A review of those metrics for the Melbourne private sale market for houses shows that time on market is approaching the lows of 2010 and 2007 but that vendors expectations are less likely to be matched by the market.
In July the time on market was 44 days compared to 62 days a year ago and above the 36 days in September 2009. It’s worth noting that 36 days was the lowest recorded since the series begun in 2005.
If the market continues to strengthen as suggested by recent consumer confidence data then this will also fall, as long as vendors’ price expectations remain in line with the market.
A similar pattern is evident when looking at the level of discounting. It is commonly understood that unlike an auction, homes that sell through private sale do so for less than their advertised price, but the lower the difference the stronger the market.
In July the average vendor discount was -6.5% compared to -7.5% a year ago and above the -4.7% in January 2008.
The improving trend is backed up by more recent preliminary data but does not change the underlying message that the current market is better than a year ago but still below its strongest.
Buyers between now and Christmas will face more competition but still have negotiating power.

<hr>
Robert Larocca is Victorian housing market specialist for <a rel="nofollow" href="https://rpdata.com/" target="_blank">RP Data</a>.
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Victorian market still below its best: RP Data

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Auction volumes were boosted last week due to the AFL Grand Final and were met with more buyers resulting in a preliminary clearance rate of 76.9% compared to 72.5% last week. This result is based on 862 auctions with more to be collected over the week. Whilst strong this is still lower that the 79.7% in the week ending June 2 from 867 auctions.
The underlying health of the market is highlighted by the fact there have now been eight consecutive weeks with a clearance rate in excess of 70%.
In the private sale market indicators were stable with time on market for houses remaining at 40 days and the average vendor discount for houses increasing from 6.2 to 6.3%.
The number of new listings being prepared for the market continues to rise with Victoria leading the nation with a 7.9% rise over the past month in seasonally adjusted terms.
Next week there are only 80 auctions in Victoria.
 
<hr>
 Robert Larocca is Victorian housing market specialist for <a rel="nofollow" href="https://rpdata.com/" target="_blank">RP Data</a>.
 
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Melbourne auctions get in early to avoid AFL grand final clash: RP Data

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There is a general assumption that home owners wait for spring to sell up and as a result, this then creates a busy few months, particularly for Victoria’s auctioneers. But is it really true and what will it mean for spring this year?

Recent analysis by RP Data shows that it is true; however the extent of the change differs from year to year.
Over the last five years there has been an average of 29% more homes listed for auction in spring than in the preceding three months in Melbourne.
Some years have been bigger than others. For instance in 2009, there were 54% more auctions in spring than previously, however in 2010, it was only 12%. These differences simply reflect changing economic circumstances that have a direct effect on the market. In this case, it was the impact of higher interest rates, the GFC and then market stimulus in response to the GFC.
Despite these yearly differences the theme is clear; that there are more sellers and more choice for buyers in spring.
This is certainly shaping to be the case this year with the lead up to spring featuring higher listing volumes than was the case in each of the last five years with the exception of 2010.
It is also the case that the increase in stock this year is being matched by more buyers resulting in a more buoyant market, increased competition and higher prices.
The question of whether this is representative of the private sale market, where there are more sales will be the subject of another article.
 <img src="/images/stories/2013/09/19/larocca_sept_20_one.png" width="470" height="159" alt="larocca_sept_20_one">

<hr>
Robert Larocca is Victorian housing market specialist for <a target="_blank" href="https://rpdata.com/" rel="nofollow">RP Data</a>.
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How big really is spring? Robert Larocca

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People are generally very familiar with median sale prices, they are the middle value when all sale prices are arranged from highest to lowest in a suburb. They allow you to compare demand in an area but do so by reference only to the homes actually sold.
Another useful metric for buyers and sellers is median value. The median value is middle value when the estimated valuation of all properties are arranged from highest to lowest.
Because the median value is based on the value of all properties it is a more stable measure than the median sale price. Median sale prices can be quite volatile due to the small number of sales – particularly in small suburbs and also due to differences in the actual homes sold.
A good example is the market for houses in inner city Fitzroy. Its median sale price in the 12 month ending June was $818,375 and this was based on 82 sales. This compares to its median value from the RP Data Suburb Scorecard of $873,033, based on the 2,347 house in the suburb.
For buyers and sellers this suggests that sale prices have been at a discount over the last year which is a reflection of the market being below its peak, and also an indication value can be found.
Now like all property data its very informative but it won’t tell you what a home will actually sell for because that is ultimately set by the market – what the sellers are willing to pay and the buyer willing to accept.

<hr>
Robert Larocca is Victorian housing market specialist for <a rel="nofollow" href="https://rpdata.com/" target="_blank">RP Data</a>.
 
 
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What median sale values can really tell you: Robert Larocca

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This week’s preliminary clearance rate for Melbourne was 73.6% compared to last week’s final of 74.7%. This result is based on 871 auctions of residential homes with 641 selling and 230 being passed in.

The spike in listings this week was a test for the auction market and it recorded a pass mark by continuing the trend of the last month and a half. The most recent interest rate reduction came at the start of August and has clearly encouraged a few more buyers into the market and helped keep the clearance rate above 70%.

Across both methods of sale listings are rising with a 6.5% increase over the last month in Victoria on seasonally adjusted terms. Buyers conservative position is however still evident with a 3.5% fall in local activity in the mortgage market.

Melbourne continues to track below the very strong Sydney auction market which recorded an 84.3% clearance rate this week.


<hr>
Robert Larocca is Victorian housing market specialist for <a target="_blank" href="https://rpdata.com/">RP Data</a>.
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Rate reduction has encouraged buyers into the market: Robert Larocca

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The changes to first home buyer assistance announced by the Victorian state government on the weekend continues the trend set the by previous Labor government of using financial incentives to modify buyer choices. This scenario is not uncommon across Australia.
With around nine separate changes made to first home buyer assistance over the past five years in Victoria, most planning to buy a new home would be right to be a little confused and wondering what will happen next. Many will have to save more; some will try and bring purchases forward.
A visit to the SRO website clearly shows policies for first home buyers are constantly changing. In the past few years, we have seen a variety of approaches to helping first home buyers, including:
<ul>
<li>those buying an existing home for less than $600,000 received direct assistance of $17,000 but faced full stamp duty bills (late 2008-mid 2009);</li>
<li>those buying an existing home in regional Victoria for less than $600,000 received direct assistance of $36,500 but faced full stamp duty bills (mid 2009-late 2009);</li>
<li>those buying any home for less than $600,000 received $7,000 in direct assistance and a stamp duty cut of between 20 and 40 per cent (last two years);</li>
<li>those buying an existing home in Melbourne for less than $600,000 received direct assistance of $18,000 but faced full stamp duty bills (first half of 2010).</li>
</ul>
Over the same time, and in response to these changes, we have seen the share of loans taken out by first home buyers be as high as 31.6% and as low as 16.3%. In February, it was 17.5%, lower than the 20-year average of 21.9%.
Click to enlarge
<a href="/images/stories/2013/04/robertlaroccaapril29one.gif" rel="shadowbox" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2013/04/robertlaroccaapril29onethumb.gif"></a>
Not only has the overall number of first home buyers changed, but so too has their choice of dwelling. Before governments provided higher assistance for those buying new homes, the share of grants for new homes comprised 20% of all purchases. In response to very high levels of assistance just for new homes, this share rose to around 56%. Most recently, it has been 30%.
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Source: SRO, REIV
Governments know that first home buyers are very price-sensitive and they will respond to financial incentives. Indeed, in the short term, we expect a rise in the number of first home buyers who seek to avoid losing the $7,000 grant on established homes.  This happened last year in Victoria when the ‘builders bonus’ ended and in New South Wales as well.
Each of the changes has an impact on the market and forces first home buyers to reevaluate their position. From the REIV’s perspective, it really is time that the government stopped tinkering with first home buyer assistance.
The REIV called for, and strongly supported, the introduction of stamp duty cuts as they are an efficient and easily understood way of helping first home buyers. They recognize that the single biggest transactional expense when buying your first home is stamp duty. Indeed, many first home buyers must feel like they spend years saving to pay stamp duty (it makes sense to reduce this impost because first home buyers just don’t have the equity that those buying their second or third home do).
The progressive introduction of the stamp duty cuts was also very sensible as it didn’t provide any shock to the market.
This latest change, where the majority of first home buyers will be worse off, should be the stimulus for a reassessment of how first home buyers are assisted by governments. There seems to be little point of working to make housing more affordable through ensuring adequate levels of supply if, at the same time, the net levels of financial assistance are reduced.
The changes, as they apply to established homes, effectively reverse most of a 25 point cut in interest rates, seemingly running counter to the monetary policy decisions of the Reserve Bank.
With that in mind, surely the simplest and most efficient option for governments would be to charge first home buyers no stamp duty whilst ensuring adequate levels of supply.
Robert Larocca is policy and public affairs manager at the<a href="https://www.reiv.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> Real Estate Institute of Victoria.</a>
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It's time to stop tinkering with first-home buyer assistance: Robert Larocca

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Some new suburbs are regularly appearing on the REIV list of those with million dollar medians.
The <a href="https://www.reiv.com.au/Property-Research/Median-Prices/Million-dollar-suburbs" target="_blank">REIV maintains a listing</a> of the most expensive suburbs in Melbourne on its website. This list is updated every month and reflects sales over the preceding 12 months.
The latest list of 39 suburbs with median house prices over $1 million in the year ending February 28 contains many of the suburbs that would typically be expected to appear; those in the inner east, inner south east and north east.
In addition to those are <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/victoria/kangaroo-ground-among-little-known-%241-million-melbourne-suburbs-reiv/2013031259842" target="_blank">some new suburbs</a> that share few characteristics with the likes of <a href="/news">East Melbourne</a> and <a href="/news">Brighton</a>. These are <a href="/news">Kangaroo Ground</a>, <a href="/news">Warrandyte South</a> and <a href="/news">Red Hill South</a>. Whilst they differ from the other 36 suburbs with million dollar medians they do have a number of factors in common.
Each is on the edge of the metropolitan area meaning that proximity to the CBD is not a factor underpinning their high prices. As suburbs on the edge of the city they share quiet bush settings and low density.
Buyers are making a lifestyle choice to live here as for the same purchase price they could live much closer to the CBD.
In addition to location their homes have other features not found in most of the most expensive inner city locations.
The dwellings are large, with four- to five-bedroom houses being the average, clearly to take advantage of the other common factor: larger bush blocks. These two factors will contribute to the higher values as large blocks. In Kangaroo Ground, for instance, the average size is 14 acres.
This four-bedroom Italianate estate (pictured below) in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-kangaroo+ground-111753543">Bellbird Lane, Kangaroo Ground</a>, has been listed by Fletchers Eltham with price hopes of $1.75 million.
<img alt="kangaroogroundapril2one" height="351" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/04/kangaroogroundapril2one.jpg">
The residents in these burgeoning suburbs are on average less diverse than the metropolitan area and older with a median age of at least 40. The higher average age underpins very high levels of home ownership at between 41%  to 52% compared to the city wide average of 33%.
Due to their relatively small size these suburbs have a low volume of sales which is why they do not appear in the quarterly median price series.
This trend will likely continue. As the city becomes more dense suburbs in green wedges such as these will become comparatively more scarce, desirable and expensive.
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; margin: 1em 0em; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Arial, Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;"><tbody><tr style="background-color: #f2f2f0; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
<td style="margin: 0px; padding: 10px;">
<a target="_blank" href="/news">EAST MELBOURNE</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">TOORAK</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">CANTERBURY</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">DEEPDENE</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">RED HILL SOUTH</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">BRIGHTON</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">ARMADALE</a> <a href="/news">MALVERN</a> <a href="/news">MAIN RIDGE</a> <a href="/news">ST KILDA WEST</a> <a href="/news">KEW</a> <a href="/news">PARKVILLE</a> <a href="/news">HAWTHORN</a> <a href="/news">CAMBERWELL</a> <a href="/news">WARRANDYTE SOUTH</a> <a href="/news">EAGLEMONT</a> <a href="/news">ELWOOD</a> <a href="/news">MIDDLE PARK</a> <a href="/news">CAULFIELD NORTH</a> <a href="/news">ALBERT PARK</a> <a href="/news">CAULFIELD</a> <a href="/news">BALWYN</a> <a href="/news">PORTSEA</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">SOUTH YARRA</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">HAWTHORN EAST</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">IVANHOE EAST</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">GLEN IRIS</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">HAMPTON</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">MONT ALBERT</a> <a target="_blank" href="/news">ELSTERNWICK</a> <a href="/news">SANDRINGHAM</a> <a href="/news">PRINCES HILL</a> <a href="/news">SURREY HILLS</a> <a href="/news">MALVERN EAST</a> <a href="/news">KANGAROO GROUND</a> <a href="/news">KEW EAST</a> <a href="/news">BLACK ROCK</a> <a href="/news">BRIGHTON EAST</a> <a href="/news">ALPHINGTON</a>
</td>
<td style="margin: 0px; padding: 10px;">$2,540,000 $2,212,500 $1,800,000 $1,751,000 $1,687,500 $1,667,500 $1,600,000 $1,550,000 $1,533,750 $1,437,500 $1,380,000 $1,360,000 $1,350,000 $1,345,000 $1,325,000 $1,315,500 $1,290,000 $1,281,000 $1,271,500 $1,270,000 $1,258,750 $1,251,000 $1,250,000 $1,250,000 $1,215,500 $1,210,000 $1,188,500 $1,162,500 $1,160,000 $1,135,000 $1,110,000 $1,100,000 $1,095,000 $1,076,250 $1,062,500 $1,060,000 $1,055,000 $1,022,500 $1,015,000</td>
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Robert Larocca is <a href="https://www.reiv.com.au">REIV</a> policy and public affairs manager.
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Melbourne's million dollar suburbs as fringe hotspots come to the fore: Robert Larocca

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With the exception of a few auctions – half of which are on the Mornington Peninsula – March is largely complete and there are clear indications that the market has moderately improved.
The clearance rate for March is currently 67%, which compares favourably to the 60% recorded in 2012. The clearance rate has come down from 72% in February this year, but given there were 60% more auctions in March, that is a reasonable outcome.
From the perspective of transactions, both auction and private sale, the REIV estimates a 9% lift in sales. Comparing sales volumes in March can often be complicated by when Easter falls and, as it occurred in April last year, it may have overstated the market in March.
This is a very healthy improvement as it shows overall market activity is higher as more people are actively buying and selling.
The improvement is also clear when the financial volume is considered. Last weekend saw $932 million in sales reported. Not only is that higher than any weekend in March last year, it’s the highest since the middle of April in 2010 when there were $936 million in sales.
Incidentally, the first quarter in 2010 saw three weekends with more than $950 million worth of homes transacted.
After Easter, auction volumes will be reduced, with around 500 in the first weekend of April and 550 in the second weekend.
Robert Larocca is communications manager of the <a rel="nofollow" href="https://www.reiv.com.au/" target="_blank">Real Estate Institute of Victoria</a>.
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Clear signs of improvement in Melbourne property market: Robert Larocca

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It may be popular to say that first-home buyer incentives don’t work or are inflationary but it’s simply not supported by the data in Victoria.

Not only is this not supported by the data but it is also a position which, from a policy perspective, is inequitable for one simple reason: stamp duty.
The REIV believes that <a target="_blank" href="http:/www.propertyobserver.com.au/first-home-buyers/first-home-buyer-grant-schemes-simply-don-t-work-terry-ryder">first-home buyers</a> deserve a better deal from governments because they have to compete with second- and third-home buyers who enter the market with equity built in earlier transactions. This would be less of an issue if not for stamp duty.
There is no rational reason why a first-home buyer should be subject to a wealth tax such as stamp duty to the same level as someone who has actually generated personal wealth from property.
How is a first-home buyer supposed to compete with other buyers? They have to save for a considerable amount of time to build the deposit, only to see it evaporate when they receive their stamp duty bill.
This is a far more significant issue than the standard debate about affordability for first-home buyers suggests. It is concerning that many who argue for more affordable property don’t also argue for lower wealth taxes on first-home buyers.
The First Home Buyers Grant, now a paltry $7,000 (the equivalent of one 25 point cut in interest rates), pales into insignificance against most stamp duty bills in Australia. Despite that fact, many commentators and organizations take pride in arguing against this form of assistance.
While governments continue to levy large stamp duty bills this is no more than an argument for wealth taxes on those who don’t have any. This position is supported by the findings in the report on Housing Supply and Affordability Reform by the Supply and Affordability Reform (HSAR) Working Party of COAG.
In its report, it found that “the FHOG does provide some help to potential first homebuyers in competing against existing homeowners, who have typically benefitted from capital gains from previous property price growth”.
In the Victorian context, there is plenty of evidence of incentives for first-home buyers being both equitable and delivering on their aims.
The first example is the First Home Owners Bonus, or builder’s bonus as it became known. When the Global Financial Crisis hit Victoria, it had a growing population that was not matched with an increase in supply. The National Housing Supply Council pointed to a supply shortfall which was translating into rapidly increasing prices.
In response, governments responded with significant grants – up to $36,500 for a new home in regional Victoria – to both increase activity in the housing market and, more pointedly, get the builders building more homes.
This policy was also part of the stimulus package aimed at generating employment for builders and related trades.
It worked. First-home buyers flocked to the market and the builders built more homes. The increased incentives came into effect on October 14, 2008 and within 12 months the number of first-home buyers in Victoria increased from 2,420 a month to 4,448. Over the last decade first home buyers have comprised 20% of all buyers; this share increased by 50% with targeted government incentives.  Those incentives achieved their aim by increasing the construction of new dwellings and addressing the supply shortfall.
These incentives also seemed to transcend politics as they were commenced under a Labor government, continued by a Coalition one and then, when they were clearly no longer needed, ended.
All home buyers benefited because housing became more affordable as there was less of an imbalance between supply and demand.
So much for suggestions that the incentives don’t work.
The second example is of the cuts to stamp duty in Victoria.
The REIV campaigned for cuts to stamp duty for all first-home buyers because we believe that it is, firstly, unfair to tax first home buyers’ precious deposits, and secondly, inefficient for governments to take with one hand and give with the other. This should not be taken as a lack of support for the grant; first-home buyers need all the help they can get and the moves by NSW, Queensland and South Australia will only make it harder for first home buyers.
As a result of our advocacy and support from the Victorian Government, by the 15th of September next year most first-home buyers will benefit from a 50% cut to stamp duty. Depending on the home you are buying, that is effectively a doubling of the $7,000 grant. This assistance has not had an immediate noticeable impact on the market nor did the REIV ever expect it to; after all it has been progressively introduced, rising from 20% in 2012 to 50% in 2014.
It may not have had the immediate impact of the builders’ bonuses but that was never the point. It was simply to reduce the inequities faced by first home buyers trying to get a start in the market. If this sort of policy is not more widely adopted, then governments are saying that they are happy for first-home buyers to spend years saving to pay a tax.
How does that help anyone?
Robert Larocca is Real Estate Institute of Victoria (<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reiv.com.au/">REIV</a>) policy and public affairs manager
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Why should first home buyers spend years saving to pay stamp duty? Robert Larocca

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What does the start of the auction year tell us?
With around 950 auctions expected, it goes without saying that this weekend is a significant test for the Melbourne residential market. By the end of it we will have a clear indication of market sentiment in 2013.
Indications are already positive. This year has commenced better than the last one ended, and that was also better than it started. The overall picture is of slowly improving demand.
Critically, Victorian consumers are more confident than they were a year ago. While this continues to be the case it will be a positive boost for the market.
Last weekend the Melbourne clearance rate was 70%. To put that in perspective the last time we recorded a clearance rate that commenced with a seven in front of it Collingwood beat St Kilda at the grand final replay in 2010.
Click to enlarge
<a href="/images/stories/2013/02/laroccagraphfeb19.gif" rel="shadowbox" title="Click to enlarge"><img src="/images/stories/2013/02/laroccagraphfeb19thumb.gif"></a>
How they year starts, however, does not provide a clear indication of how it will end in the auction market. In fact, over the past five years the weekend clearance rate has rarely been the same at the end of the year as it was at the start.
There are many reasons for this; the critical one, however, is the performance of the economy and how that impacts on consumers.
Last year it was stable over the year. The February clearance rate for Melbourne was 62%, and after reaching a high of 65% in October it ended at 60%. This represented a fairly minor spread of 2 points from start till end.
In 2011 the drop was more significant. In February it was 67%, and it dropped 12 points to 55% in December. This was due to a large number of vendors, buoyed by the 2010 market, listing for auction in early 2011.
From a price perspective the market peaked in 2010 but the clearance rate fell over the year, from 86% in February to 65% in December, a 21-point drop.
In 2009 the market rose, but with a spread of 6 points was stable compared to the years that followed. It started in February with 76% and ended with 82%. Volumes were, however, very low at the start of the year, consumer confidence was at a low ebb following the onset of the GFC in September.
Finally in 2008 the spread was 15 points as it fell from 77% in February to 62% in December. That year the market was particularly affected by the end of a cycle of increasing interest rates in the second quarter and then of course the GFC.
To find out what happens this weekend <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@REIVictoria">follow the REIV on Twitter</a> or visit <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reiv.com.au">reiv.com.au.</a>
Robert Larocca is communications manager of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reiv.com.au/">Real Estate Institute of Victoria</a>
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Indications positive for Melbourne auction property market in 2013: Robert Larocca

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Joel Robinson

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

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Urban Property Group unveils trio of towers for next stage of new Wollongong precinct, Keira Place

Central Element is seeking approval for a significant residential redevelopment in Lavender Bay, lodging plans for a dual-tower apartment project that would deliver 163 new homes on a prominent site at the northern gateway to Milsons Point.

The Sydney-based builder-developer has lodged a concurrent rezoning proposal and State Significant Development Application for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-66-lavender-street-lavender-bay-nsw-2060">64-66 Lavender Street and 3-7 Middlemiss Street</a>, a 2,305 sqm amalgamated site currently occupied by a collection of ageing residential flat buildings.

Designed by SJB, the proposal would replace the existing 32 apartments with two residential towers rising 23 and 32 storeys, comprising 163 apartments including affordable housing managed by a community housing provider. The project forms part of the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority program and has been progressing through a fast-tracked state planning pathway since being endorsed for further assessment in 2025.

The proposal is one of the most significant redevelopment opportunities currently under consideration on Sydney's lower north shore, sitting between the high-density towers of Milsons Point and the lower-scale heritage fabric of Lavender Bay.

<img alt="Lavender Bay" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="93ecf0ee-487d-4292-afc4-0bc9579475d6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.30.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=PunU2ipMaTxiJcJ8NdMyUlWA7d98eNUb" />

The planning proposal seeks a substantial uplift from the current 12 metre height limit, which would only allow for a four-storey building, however the submission argues a scheme within these limits would not be&nbsp;economically feasible given the complexity of site amalgamation and would fail to maximise housing delivery on land located within walking distance of major transport infrastructure.

SJB said the design evolved significantly following discussions with the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure and independent design review processes.&nbsp;Rather than pursuing a single larger tower, the architects adopted a two-tower approach aimed at reducing perceived bulk, preserving view corridors and creating greater permeability at ground level.

The northern tower would rise 23 storeys and contain 81 apartments, while the southern tower would reach 32 storeys and accommodate 82 apartments. Five basement levels would provide 174 car spaces, 181 bicycle spaces and 10 motorcycle spaces.

"The proposal for 3–7 Middlemiss Street and 64–66 Lavender Street is driven by a clear ambition to complete the Middlemiss Peninsula, delivering the final piece of a carefully evolving urban precinct," SJB noted in its design report.

"Positioned at the threshold between Lavender Bay and the North Sydney CBD, the development is envisioned as a unifying element—one that completes the skyline composition while providing a considered and harmonious transition between the peninsula’s established character and the intensity of the CBD beyond.

"Collectively, the development aspires to create a landmark that is generous, inclusive, and deeply connected to its setting, one that enhances the skyline, strengthens the public realm, and contributes to a more equitable and sustainable urban future."

Communal spaces would be distributed across multiple levels, including landscaped podium gardens, swimming pool facilities, barbecue areas and rooftop-style retreat spaces designed for residents. The proposal delivers more than 1,500 sqm of communal open space and nearly 400 sqm of indoor communal facilities.

<img alt="Central Element" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0671c276-6dd8-4cfc-97b0-134a45d2c8cf" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.30.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=90D7lRaCTMTsFx92tIBrHlZcuaV_a4cw" />

A major focus of the planning assessment has been the project's relationship with surrounding public open spaces.

Clark Park, Bradfield Park and Wendy Whiteley's Secret Garden are among the lower north shore's most valued public landscapes, and overshadowing impacts have been closely examined through the design process. Central Element is proposing to also create a new public plaza and pocket park as part of the development.

Central Element has been developing across Sydney since 2010.

They have recently completed their Chatswood tower, Ethos Chatswood, as well as their luxury redevelopment of Coogee's landmark Ballamac House. They are currently selling Pearl Bondi, just seven high-end homes, while future plans include a tower on Hyde Park, and a boutique project in Neutral Bay.

Robert Larocca

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