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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Lazarus of the Australian economy – consumer spending – seems to be starting to recover from the dead zone created by budget related shocks. But how long can it last? The long-term prognosis remains troubling.
A growth recession?
As I am sure all readers will recall from their school days, an oxymoron is a combination of contradictory words. Cruel kindness, for example. The term comes from the Greek for ‘pointedly foolish’, but those in Australian retail property may be feeling that the somewhat oxymoronic-sounding ‘growth recession’ is more serious than that.
Virtually none of the federal government’s cuts and increased costs are likely to pass through the Senate. This is good news for the retail sector; if some of these measures were to make it through annual household income would drop by over $600, causing big spenders on low to medium incomes to think twice about splashing out on the next big purchase.
While a small bounce back in consumer confidence has seen a slight pick-up in retail sales over the last few weeks, this may not be enough to save spenders from having to tighten their belts and save the retail property sector from pain. For over five quarters Australia has registered annual growth at less than 1%, which is disturbingly news considering Australia’s population growth stands at 1.8%.
It’s almost like a recession on an economic growth per capita basis and that is why things are, and are likely to remain, tough for retail.
GDP per capita is moderating…
<img class="alignleft wp-image-6871" src="https://www.btim.com.au/media/GDP1.png" alt="GDP" width="550" height="306">
GDP per capita: % change quarter on quarter chain volume measures. Source: BT Investment Management.
…affecting retail sales in 2014
<img class="alignleft wp-image-6870" src="https://www.btim.com.au/media/Retail-Turnover1.png" alt="Retail Turnover" width="550" height="295">
Retail turnover (SA). Source: BT Investment Management.
There’s a strong warning signal for retail sales
Over the past three years interest rate cuts have prompted some improvement in retail sales. Even with rates kept at historic lows this streak won’t continue. Australians just aren’t interested in borrowing – they’re keeping 24 months ahead of their mortgage repayments and getting better at saving. Consumers have already stopped spending on big ticket items like overseas holidays and cars – new car sales are falling 3% year on year.
Looking to the future, there’s one warning signal investors must not miss – household income growth has dropped from 11% in 2007 to just 3.5% in 2013. This typically correlates with a 2% drag on retail sales, which, closely followed by falling rents, weakens retail property yields.
What it will take for conditions improve?
There’s still a world of opportunity in retail property if you know where to look. Very high population growth in Australia (the highest in the developed world) ensures continued demand for quality shopping centres, but there are some major challenges ahead – rising online sales, the growth recession and lacklustre pay rises will be compounded when interest rates rise once again.
For a sustained increase in retail spending and a retail property boom, we need to see improving income growth, solid house price growth and growing confidence in the economy and the federal government.
Julia Forrest is REIT portfolio manager at <a href="https://www.btim.com.au" target="_blank">BT Investment Management</a>.
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jforrest-H4ErufrJeZ

Major challenges remain for retail property

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GUEST OBSERVATION
While the overall retail sector continues to face headwinds, there are three reasons why regional shopping centres may be investors’ pick.
<ol>
<li>
One-stop shop: the DNA of regional shopping centres is shifting Many regional centres are boosting their appeal to consumers, stores and investors by changing the way they do business. What could once be described as clusters of specialty and discount retail stores are now emerging as thriving town centres, where key healthcare services including doctors, dentists and optometrists are finally seeing the value in setting up shop. It’s not just local service businesses making a lunge for metropolitan centres either, with international chains such as Zara and Aldi rolling out stores across the major regionals. These big brands may tackle Woolworths and Coles for the anchor position in metro centres, increasing their overall traffic. 
</li>
<li>
Mall traffic will boom when residential developments close in The golden investment opportunity lies in regional shopping centres with great residential potential. As the make-up of regional malls continues to shift towards being a one-stop goods and services shop, over time we can expect to see retirement villages, student accommodation and residential developments built on the boundaries (or on top) of these hubs. CBD centres won’t necessarily have these same residential opportunities but there are key exceptions. A good example of this is David Jones on Elizabeth Street in Sydney, where there are plans for a residential tower to be built above the store. 
</li>
<li>
Regional investment no longer a developer’s nightmare Over the past seven years, supply of new regional mall space has lagged below the long-term average of 2.5% of existing stock. It’s not surprising – the GFC caused developers to fear faltering tenant demand for space, the sustainability of yields overall and therefore the value proposition of adding space. The demographics, however, are in their favour. Australia has the highest population growth in the developed world and with the changing make-up of regional malls we’re starting to see the pipeline strengthen for refurbishments and new developments. Where is this investment activity taking place? South East Queensland is fast emerging as a retail investment hot spot. In 2015-2016, the Queensland retail investment splash will hit Mt Gravatt, North Lakes, Chermside and Pacific Fair. While the overall level of retail activity may not be rosy in the short- to medium-term, these improvements are likely to buttress gains in the longer term. Other major redevelopments in the pipeline include Miranda in New South Wales and Booragoon in Western Australia.
</li>
</ol>
Julia Forrest is REIT portfolio manager at <a href="https://www.btim.com.au" target="_blank">BT Investment Management</a>.
 
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The three reasons to invest in regional shopping centres

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Growth can be hard to find in the property market. However, a hidden jewel could be dug up in the industrial sector. 
A secret missed by many investors is the strong historical correlation between house prices and industrial land prices.
While house prices get all the publicity, the industrial sector may be a useful long-term bet.
Here are four reasons why industrial property is Australia’s sweet spot:
<ol>
<li>
Industrial is the hidden growth market  As cities continue to sprawl, industrial land becomes increasingly useful.Companies like Goodman Group are converting industrial sites into apartment blocks, sometimes quadrupling property value. 
</li>
<li>
Warehousing laps up a confidence boost  People are confident during housing booms and strong consumer spending correlates with increased imports, increasing activity in distribution centres. While consumer confidence may still be low now and keeping some buyers out of the market, it will not always be that way. 
</li>
<li>
Industrial property can be a relatively reliable investment  Major developers will not undertake new projects without commitment from tenants. 
</li>
<li>
Market dynamics are good  Supply is kept relatively low, rents have been rising and vacancy rates remain muted at the high end.</li>
</ol>
Julia Forrest is REIT Portfolio Manager at <a href="https://www.btim.com.au" target="_blank">BT Investment Management</a>.
Listen to BT Investment Management’s <a href="https://www.btim.com.au/adviserbriefing/">webinar</a> to find out more.
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Four reasons there may be diamonds in industrial property

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/caulfield-north-vic-3161">Caulfield North</a> isn’t short on prestige, but it is short on boutique new apartment developments with spacious floorplans.

Cue LUMA, the newest development by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/skylife-group-pty-ltd">Skylife Group</a>, which offers just nine apartments on Hawthorn Road.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/luma-caulfield-north-226-hawthorn-road-caulfield-north-vic-3161">LUMA</a> occupies a coveted position near Caulfield Park, encircled by Melbourne's finest schools, parks, and culinary destinations. Its low-rise form by Metaxas Architects channels timeless design principles, wrapped in a restrained yet luxurious material palette.

Every residence embraces natural light and outlooks, thanks to expansive glazing and thoughtfully arranged floorplans.

Ranging from 80 sqm to nearly 160 sqm internally, with terraces or balconies extending up to 30 sqm, the homes offer a diversity of configurations, from two-bedroom residences to three-bedroom layouts with up to three bathrooms.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148933 project_image_fid=335511]

The interiors are unified by a calm, light-infused aesthetic. Organic white walls, soft walnut timber joinery, and Aurora Range European Oak flooring are paired with plush carpeted bedrooms, creating a harmonious tactile experience.

The kitchens at LUMA serve both as culinary workspaces and statement design features. Buyers can choose between a lightGlacier Honed or dark Turko Argento natural stone benchtop, with timber-look Polytec Ravine joinery and fluted glass cabinetry providing contrast.&nbsp;

Miele appliances complete the package, tailored to residence size, with premium upgrades for three-bedroom homes including an 80cm induction cooktop and Gen 7000 speed oven.

Bathrooms echo the same sensibility, with natural stone, black EXON fixtures, and frameless glass showers. Select residences offer freestanding baths.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=148933 project_image_fid=335513]

Private outdoor spaces, secure parking, and options for EV charging reflect a practical yet elevated lifestyle focus.

As the development progresses toward its late 2026 completion, construction is in the hands of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/rf-construction-management-pty-ltd">RF Construction Management</a>, bringing over 30 years of local high-end building expertise.

LUMA also offers a five per cent deposit structure, allowing buyers time to plan while securing their place in this tightly held precinct.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=148933]

Joel Robinson

Inside Caulfield North's most boutique address, LUMA

Sekisui House Australia's first apartment development in Sydney's Lower North Shore has been a hit with prospective new home buyers.

They recently released <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/waterstone-st-leonards-24-berry-road-st-leonards-nsw-2065">Waterstone</a>, on the fringe of Newlands Park in the emerging St Leonards South precinct, a short walk from the Crows Nest Metro and the heart of St Leonards.

The new development will home&nbsp;207 apartments across five mid-rise buildings, rising between four to nine storeys.

We recently visited the display suite at&nbsp;60 Pacific Highway, St Leonards, to find out more about the development that has been one of the most enquired on developments on Apartments.com.au in the last few months.

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rO1K7t6GOgY?si=pwmYyqjNBBzjMNeb" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

Watersone sales agent Paul Marrum says the orientation of the building was key to Sekisui's wider design philosophy.

“Waterstone has been orientated to face south, capturing views over Newland’s Park and back to the Sydney CBD," Marrum says.

"This deliberate positioning, alongside 30 per cent of the site dedicated to open space designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/aspect-studios">Aspect Studios</a>, roots the project in the developer’s Satoyama philosophy - prioritising balance between the built environment and its surrounding ecosystem."

On offer are a mix of one-, two-, three-, and four-bedroom apartments, with many including&nbsp;multi-purpose rooms to accommodate shifting lifestyle needs, from work-from-home professionals to growing families and downsizers.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134191 project_image_fid=234]

“Every apartment is open plan, with interiors flowing to balconies or courtyards," Marrum adds.

"The material palette reinforces this flow: soft-toned tactile stone, fluted glass cabinetry, and warm timber joinery work together to create what he describes as a “refined but relaxed atmosphere.”

There’s a distinct human scale to Waterstone’s design. The community is shaped as a network of boutique buildings threaded by a ‘green spine’, a landscape feature that invites movement, reflection, and connection.

Marrum highlights the presence of sensory gardens and native planting throughout, signalling an approach that enhances both wellness and biodiversity.&nbsp;Yet Waterstone doesn’t forgo amenity for serenity however. Residents will have access to a heated outdoor pool and spa, infrared sauna, co-working lounge, fully equipped gym, and even dedicated resident workspaces.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134191 project_image_fid=231]

Waterstone will rise from a prime Berry Road site ideally located near the green Newlands Park but also a short walk to the hear of both St Leonards and Crows Nest, two transport nodes with bus, train, and Sydney Metro lines connecting to the rest of Sydney.

Construction is slated to begin in mid-2025, with completion targeted for late 2027.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134191]

Inside Waterstone St Leonards: Apartments.com.au Video Spotlight

Off the plan buyers at Altona's newest apartment development Voyage, are soon to take their keys, with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/spacious-property-development-group-pty-ltd">Spacious Property Development Group</a>&nbsp;approaching completion of the contemporary, coastal building.

Farey &amp; Co can now take prospective buyers through a fully-furnished display apartment on appointment as construction approaches its final stages.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=3286]

Situated just 13 kilometres from Melbourne’s CBD, Voyage Altona beachside apartment development offers a rare opportunity to live moments from the sand, pier, and thriving village life of Pier Street.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/voyage-altona-102-106-pier-street-altona-vic-3018">Voyage</a> is the only new apartment offering currently on the market in <a>Altona</a>. Comprising one, two, and three-bedroom residences, it has been thoughtfully designed to appeal to a broad spectrum of buyers, from first home purchasers to downsizers and lifestyle-focused owner-occupiers.&nbsp;

Prices start from just over $500,000 for one-bedroom apartments, with three-bedroom configurations topping out just over the $1 million mark.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=2145]

Voyage's architecture, by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cheah-saw-architecture">Cheah Saw Architecture</a>, is defined by an asymmetrical façade and a refined palette that echoes the surrounding coastal tones.&nbsp;

Inside, a minimalist design language prevails, with full-height glazing inviting expansive views over Port Phillip Bay and hybrid timber flooring grounding the open-plan layouts.&nbsp;

Kitchens are appointed with premium Miele appliances and stone finishes, while the bathrooms feature porcelain tiles and walk-in glass showers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112195 project_image_fid=3287]

Voyage's location on Pier Street places residents at the heart of the suburb’s major activity centre. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/altona-vic-3018">Altona</a> Station, Altona Beach, and a diverse mix of cafes and shops are all within walking distance.&nbsp;

With the final release now selling, Spacious is offering buyers the chance to secure their future home with just a five per cent deposit, a move that lowers the barrier to entry and positions Voyage as one of the most accessible premium new builds on Melbourne’s bayside fringe.

Spacious Property Development Group collaborated with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/valeo-construction">Valeo Construction</a> to bring this vision to life. The development has advanced significantly, with interior fit-outs and communal landscaping well underway.&nbsp;

Completion is targeted for Q3 2025, with some buyers expected to move in by September.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=112195]

Completion is targeted for Q3 2025, with some buyers expected to move in by September

Buyers to move into Voyage Altona this Spring

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/beulah">Beulah</a>&nbsp;has unveiled its latest release of exclusive homes in its sustainable Brunswick townhouse development, Brunswick Established.

The collection, known as ‘The Courtyard House’, has been created in collaboration with Six Degrees Architects to meet the evolving needs of modern families.&nbsp;

With a central courtyard at its heart, the design reimagines the possibilities of multi-generational living, blending flexibility, sustainability and personalisation within a heritage setting. Distinct from a traditional garden, the courtyard delivers natural light, fresh air and a generous sense of space, without the upkeep of a backyard.

Comprised of 23 two-storey townhouses, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/brunswick-established-23-hodgson-st-brunswick-vic-3056">Brunswick Established</a> offers multiple typologies of townhomes to suit different living requirements, allowing residents to grow in place - majority include ground-floor bedrooms for accessibility, while others, known as the ‘The Courtyard House’, provide a unique, flexible detached space separated by a courtyard.

Responsible for both the architecture and interior design, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/six-degrees-architects">Six Degrees</a>’ holistic approach enabled the team to ensure an intrinsic link between the design outcomes; a seamless, harmonious flow from the outside to within.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136451 project_image_fid=275571]

“The modern home should flow from inside to outside - the courtyard provides a space which joins the different parts of the home together as the central outside space of the home,” explains Six Degrees Director, Peter Malatt.

“The courtyard is a model used since ancient times, transforming the home from an object within a space to an object enclosing space. It acts as both the visual and social heart of the home, a space to gather, reflect, or simply pause, offering a moment of calm within a busy urban context."

“Courtyards also offer a deeply cultural and emotional resonance, with their timeless presence across human history. They connect us to the past, while shaping how we live today

Malatt says the courtyard also operates as a micro-climate, which can retain heat in winter and be a shaded haven in summer.

"The ability to take warmed or cooled air into the home from the courtyard space is a great way to improve internal health and minimise energy use through heating and cooling. In a compact urban environment like Brunswick, courtyards are also a clever solution - bringing light, greenery and nature into denser living formats while maintaining a strong sense of privacy and connection."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136451 project_image_fid=270371]

This concept resonated strongly with early downsizers who recently purchased one of the Courtyard homes at Brunswick Established for themselves and their two adult sons, aged 21 and 24.

“We’re excited to have a home that gives us flexibility as our lives evolve, whether it’s our sons living with us as they finish university, or us being able to lock up and travel. Having separate spaces connected by the courtyard is perfect for our family dynamic, especially as we value our independence but also want to stay close,” they shared.

The couple, who also share their home with two dogs and two cats, highlighted the benefits of multi-generational living in a courtyard home.

“Our sons help care for the pets, we enjoy cooking and spending time together, and the courtyard means we have light, greenery, and privacy all in one. We love that Brunswick Established has thought about sustainability and customisation in such a detailed way, it’s rare to find that in a project.”

Beulah’s approach to design customisation at Brunswick Established, allowing residents to adapt layouts to their lifestyle, has been a major drawcard for buyers seeking homes that evolve alongside them. The detached living space offers flexibility to suit changing needs, whether as a studio, guest retreat, or home office, while maintaining a close link to the main residence, allowing family members to come together or enjoy privacy when needed.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136451 project_image_fid=275570]

Malatt added that the&nbsp;homes have been designed for residents’ well-being, allowing couples and families to ‘grow’ in their own homes while ensuring they meet their needs for generations to come.

"Purchasers usually experience multiple lifestyle stages within one home, and we’re looking forward to seeing these unique homes come to life."

As part of this forward-thinking approach, Beulah will also host an exclusive event, The Property Market Decanted, on Wednesday 27 August at The Commons Café &amp; Cocktail Bar, Melbourne. The evening will feature insights from leading property and finance experts on Melbourne’s market outlook and long-term wealth creation strategies, particularly for multi-generational households.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136451]

Beulah release sustainable courtyard townhouse collection at Brunswick Established

Hampton's High Street offers the best of both worlds; halfway between Hampton Beach and Hampton Station, with a myriad of cafes and shops on its doorstep.

It was this unbeatable combination of convenience and connectivity that attracted Nash Project Management to secure a prime site on the corner of Hampton and Holyrood Streets several years ago.

The result is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/holyrood-hampton-451-461-hampton-street-hampton-vic-3188">Holyrood &amp; Hampton</a>, a newly completed residential development comprising 59 premium apartments set above a full-line Coles supermarket, enhancing the day-to-day ease for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4629 project_image_fid=1530]

Those who have already moved into Holyrood &amp; Hampton have highlighted several standout features of their new home, with the location topping the list.

Hampton Station on the Sandringham line (Zone 2), is just down Hampton Street, offering regular services to Flinders Street Station. Multiple bus routes connect to Southland, St Kilda, and Berwick, while scenic cycling paths along the bay provide a relaxing alternative for commuters and weekend riders.

A short walk west leads to Picnic Point and Hampton Beach, beloved for its clean sand and family- and dog-friendly spaces. Ferdinando Gardens, near the pier, is perfect for picnics, while coastal walking trails offer peaceful views and breezes.

The surrounding green spaces—Castlefield Reserve, Triangle Gardens, and Hampton High Reserve—offer playgrounds, sports fields, and a sense of calm. Golfers have several options nearby, including Brighton Public Golf Course just a short drive away.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4629 project_image_fid=1528]

Hampton Street remains the heart of the community, with more than 50 fashion boutiques, cafés, and eateries. A Woolworths anchors the retail strip, while independent shops help maintain its village charm.

Health and community services are easily accessible, with local GPs, dental clinics, and the nearby Sandringham Community Hospital, supported by larger hospitals in Brighton and Cheltenham.

Families are well catered to, with top private and public schools within a 1–2 km radius. These include Haileybury College, St Leonards College, Firbank Grammar, Brighton Grammar, Hampton Primary, and Brighton Secondary College.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=4629 project_image_fid=1532]

The apartments have been designed for longevity, with spacious, home-like layouts. Many include butler’s pantries, oversized kitchen islands, and quality finishes.

Additional features such as a rooftop terrace, EV charging, secure storage, and direct supermarket access support a highly functional and low-maintenance lifestyle.

Designed by Telha Clarke, Holyrood &amp; Hampton reflects how people want to live today—connected, walkable, and move-in ready.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=4629]

Those who have already moved into Holyrood & Hampton have highlighted several standout features of their new home, with the location topping the list.

Julia Forrest

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