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Guest observation
China's economic slowdown is for real.
However, we may find this slowdown could be the one we have to have to provide the foundation for long-term progress.
China's problems are known: the consumer, internet and casinos are crowded trades with clear risks.
Here are four trends which reveal the pressure on China's attempts at rebalancing growth.
 
<ol>
<li>
Crackdown on corruption hits casinos and residential property The corruption crackdown is affecting some major casinos' ability to turn a profit. Take Macau: VIP and junket-rolling chip value declined 3% year-on-year (year-on-year) and 14% quarter-on-quarter (quarter-to-quarter). The supposed saviour, mass market gambling, saw revenue growth slowing to 16% year-on-year in the first half of 2014 and further to 13% year-on-year in July 2014, as compared to 32% last year. Table yields (the amount of money a casino makes per table per day) had risen from US$4,600 in the first quarter of 2010 to US$12,900 in the first quarter of 2014, but have since fallen marginally in the second quarter. We recently met SOHO China, a developer and landlord of office properties in Shanghai and Beijing. It confirmed recent reports that the residential property market has cooled, particularly the luxury end. Apart from slowing demand, luxury apartments are sometimes offered at 20-30% discounts to some insiders. An initiative to make ownership records transparent as China prepares to levy property tax also has the unintended effect of revealing people who own multiple properties disproportionate to their income. 
</li>
<li>
Online retail a double-edged sword; prices are down but reach grows The top 10 offline retailers had 9% share of total retail in year 2007, rising to 11.2% in 2012. Compare this to online retail as a percentage of total retail, which went from 0.2% in 2007 to 6.3% in 2012. Online retail is a double-edged sword for consumption. For 'old economy' asset-intensive businesses the online channel is a serious threat that puts downward pressure on pricing. At the same time, it dramatically increases the reach and access for suppliers and brands to cities and towns that earlier could never justify a mall or physical presence. This will lead to an enlarged pie of total retail sales. Over time, if income levels in less developed parts of China do increase, retail sales can see a boost due to the reach of online retail formats. 
</li>
<li>
Major developer abandons retail malls Retail sales at department stores are falling. China Vanke, one of the largest property developers, has taken a strategic decision not to build any more retail malls. This trend is compounded by the rise of e-commerce, but also reflects lower demand for high end products. Virtually every department store in China is witnessing negative same-store sales. Luxury brands are resigned to use flagship stores as mere adjuncts to brand building, as opposed to outlets where they can sell their goods. According to a report from Bain Consulting, Chinese consumers accounted for 29% of global luxury goods spend in 2013. Recent trends in value-added tax refunds in Europe for Chinese customers show a marked slowdown to just 9-10% year-on-year growth. Just like the slowdown in China GDP growth affected commodity producers across the world, so too this crackdown has ramifications across the world. 
</li>
<li>
Hypermarkets disappoint as employee benefits cease Hypermarkets and supermarkets in China have fared worse at a time you would normally expect them to do relatively better. Sun Art Retail, one of the largest hypermarkets, recorded flat same-store sales this half. Combing through the accounts of department stores and hypermarkets, one analyst pointed out the big drop in Business to Government (B2G) pre-paid cards. State-owned enterprises in China had a practice of buying pre-paid cards at these stores and gifting them to employees or customers. That practice is now frowned upon in China. This last point is worth pondering upon. Even supermarkets and hypermarkets were deriving sales from customers who did not earn that spending money but were gifted that money. What does all that tell you about the rebalancing? I have marginal exposure in consumer, casinos and the internet. The rest of 'poor quality' cyclical China is cheap and that is where I have invested my attention.</li>
</ol>
 Samir Mehta manages the <a href="https://www.btim.com.au/" target="_blank">BT Wholesale Asian Share Fund</a> of JO Hambro Capital Managed Funds.
 
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

China's downturn will do it - and the world - some good

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Guest observation
Property media in Australia can be confusing at the best of times. But in August, it was contradictory madness.
"Jump aboard as prices continue to rise," trumpeted local commentators. "Your crash is coming," overseas experts chimed in.
"Beware Australia's housing bubble," cried the Reserve Bank. Treasurer Joe Hockey then dismissed that idea. Next, the Reserve Bank said prices were "not a crisis" before sending "warnings" of an "inflated market" with potential for, yep, "bubbles".
So our dinner tables are now places of effervescent debate. Property is becoming notorious enough to be off-limits alongside sex, religion and politics. With each contradictory headline, prejudices burn on both sides of the fence. Everyone's an expert.
Yet if we focus more on what's happening in our own "micro markets", we often have all the answers.
Supply and demand drives price, so forget looking at Australia as a whole. We need to see the market in specific price brackets, geographies and lifestyles.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic.jpeg" alt="">
Sydney's art deco coastal belt - a micro market of its own. (Image supplied)
When buying, we don't view Australia as one market. We don't even see Sydney as one. And postcodes don't dictate precise boundaries for residents. People see a certain way of life, delivered by a similar category of home, across a variety of suburbs that cater to a specific lifestyle.
Think student belts from <a href="/news">Kensington</a> to <a href="/news">Camperdown</a>. Think brand new apartments from <a href="/news">Bondi Junction</a> to <a href="/news">Chippendale</a>. Think luxury homes around waterfronts. Think 3-bedroom inner-city terraces around $1.2 million.
They're just 4 different micro markets, moving independently of each other. And there's plenty more, each with their own lifestyle and buyer profile of residents wanting the same home.
As bubble chatter continues, some of these homes have boomed in value, while some prices have dropped. Certain rents have skyrocketed. Other landlords have slashed prices.
Luxury houses in prestige streets of <a href="/news">Woollahra</a> and <a href="/news">Point Piper</a> make another micro market. Prices in these pockets are down from levels seen three years ago. Try telling those owners we're in a "property boom". Yet that's what these stories keep beating up.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic2.jpeg" alt="">
Not booming: This home in Jersey Rd, Woollahra sold in 2008 for $2.2 million. It recently sold for the same money in 2014.
As savvy buyers and sellers, it makes sense to hone in on these mini trends, because each micro market performs differently over time. The wider data doesn’t tell us this.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic3.jpeg" alt="">
Across in Marrickville, this cottage sold in 2005 for $425,000. With some cosmetic updates, it fetched more than $1 million in 2014.
Residents who understand how their own sector of the market is performing can identify periods of dropping price, growth, and steady phases with no movement.
Existing owners can still capitalise on knowledge of micro markets. As sellers or landlords, the trick is to position our property correctly to capture the most demand.
Then, we can strategise and set objectives. We can make changes, renovate to suit the area, market homes differently, or wait. Understanding what's happening around us can be far more valuable than waiting on interest rate changes or following wider data.
When buying, we shouldn't accept reports that all home categories are hot. If Sydney and Australia is booming, we can still pounce on the ups and downs of the micro markets that suit our needs as buyers.
Even within all this "bubble" and "boom", the best buying/selling can find untapped momentum. We just have to become more in tune with our neighbourhoods.
Shannan Whitney is the chief executive of <a href="https://www.bresicwhitney.com.au/buy" target="_blank">BresicWhitney Estate Agents</a>.
 
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Forget one big bubble: we're a nation of micromarkets

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Guest observation
As we go about our lives, it's easy to get caught up in everyday expenses without thinking about future finances.
Retirement is supposed to be about living the life you want, but that means having enough money to do the things you love.
According to the 2012–2013 Australian Bureau of Statistics, only 4.5% of people who retired from the labour force have a total gross weekly household income of $2,000 or more.
The 2014 Budget outlined Federal Government plans to lift the retirement age to 70 by the year 2035, and Treasurer Joe Hockey has started the conversation about lifting the superannuation preservation age to match.
The impact of this means you will have more time for your investments to grow and less time to spend the results. But consider, too, you may need to stop work earlier than you intend.
So while the rules around retirement may change, one certainty is that tomorrow's retirees will need a plan that includes super, supplemented by passive income from other investment.
For the purpose of this article all examples will be based on a retirement age of 65 and rounded to the nearest $1,000.
Out of Sync
Improvements in aged care and diet, along with medical advances mean the majority of people today will live longer than generations that went before them. As a result, our retirement expectations are out of sync with our retirement savings, and most of us aren't saving enough to pursue our retirement dreams.
Our idea of what is 'comfortable' is likely to be slightly more than the Association of Superannuation Fund Australia's definition at AU$41,169 a year for singles or $56,317 for couples.
The consensus is that 60% to 65% of your pre-retirement household income should be your retirement income target. Therefore, if you earn a household income of around $160,000 per annum pre-retirement, an annual retirement income goal of $2,000 per week or $104,000 p.a. would be a more appropriate target to maintain your standard of living.
How Much Do You Need?
If you want to earn $104,000 p.a. in retirement, you will need to be mortgage-free and have AU$2,600,000 (in today's dollars) in investments (based on a 4 per cent return). With inflation at 3 per cent, in 15 years' time this equates to an annual income of $162,000 from a $4,051,000 portfolio.
<img src="/images/2014/10/7/Picture%208.png" alt="">
Based on 4% p.a. investment return, 3% p.a. inflation. Figures rounded up to the nearest thousand.
Meet Tony and Judy Jones
Tony and Judy represent an average professional Australian couple whose goal is to retire in 15 years at age 65. They currently have an annual income of $160,000 and also have $155,000 in superannuation savings. Tony and Judy want to travel around the world and visit relatives overseas.
They also want to be able to pay for their daughter's wedding and access the right medical care and retirement accommodation when needed.
In 15 years Tony and Judy's superannuation savings will grow to $533,000 from their regular contributions and returns from funds invested. Despite this growth they still have a retirement shortfall of $3,518,000, if they want to achieve those financial and lifestyle goals. That means they'll need to save $235,000 every year for the next 15 years.
It's a frightening figure. But there is a smarter way for Tony and Judy to close the gap.
Plan Earlier and Smarter
Most Australians like Tony and Judy struggle to reach what they need to achieve a comfortable retirement because they don't have a plan in place. Typically, like Tony and Judy, their savings are accumulation-based. With this approach it's unlikely they'll reach their goals by retirement age. The alternative way is to earn money from assets.
There are many investment products available with the most common being direct shares, high interest savings accounts, extra super contributions, term deposits, self-managed super funds and managed investments.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Investing in Property
Property growth is another investment that can help you build wealth.
<img src="/images/2014/10/7/Picture%2010.png" alt="">
Source: Residex June 2012
With such a sustained growth, you'd think more Australians would invest in property, but according to the Australian Taxation Office,5 only 1.7 million Australians are recorded as having an interest in a rental property. Of those, the majority (72 per cent) have an interest in only one rental property.
If we go back to Tony and Judy's case, for example, we have established they need to save $235,000 a year for each of the next 15 years. Structuring the purchase of four rental properties into their investment plan would be one way for them to reach this goal.
<img src="/images/2014/10/7/Picture%2012.png" alt="">
All figures rounded to the nearest $1,000.
If property is to be included in your investment portfolio, you may consider enlisting the expertise of a professional who specialises in property investment.
Where to From Here?
If you decide to invest in property, take some time to consider your overall retirement goals and timeframes and be sure to work with a reputable company that can assist you in building an investment portfolio.
The right consultant will consider your current situation and goals, calculate your borrowing capacity, then provide a plan with a clear strategy to achieve your desired outcome, making sure your decisions are informed, and not based on emotion.
Michael Fuller is a Property Consultant at <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au" target="_blank">Direct Property Network </a>(DPN).
 
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Earn $100K or more in retirement: informed planning needed

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Guest observation
Spring is the peak season for real estate and many of you will be in the market to purchase a property, whether for yourself to live in or as an investment.
Before you head out to an inspection next weekend, or sign a contract of sale, please keep the following list of tips in mind.
<ol>
<li>
List all fixtures/extras in the contract. Anything not physically bolted down is considered a chattel, not a fixture, and could be removed by the vendor. To avoid any doubt, list removable items in the contract. These include dishwashers, free-standing ovens, pool equipment, mirrors, mantel pieces, garden sheds, pot plants and farm equipment. Vendors have been known to remove free-standing dishwashers and ovens before settlement. And be on the lookout for anything you might be buying with the property which is not particularly desirable. I recently reviewed a contract where a daggy sofa bed located in an attic-style room was included in the sale, probably because it was almost physically impossible to remove it! 
</li>
<li>
Read the Owners Corporation rules. Owners Corporations, or Body Corporates, own and manage the common property in subdivisions. Each owner pays a contribution to the maintenance of the common property and shared services provided to the owners, such as gardening and caretaking. Some large apartment developments have more than one Owners Corporation, especially where there are carparks, gyms and swimming pools. Every Owners Corporation has rules; if they don't make their own rules the default legislative rules apply. Always carefully read through the OC rules in the contract, to see if they are something you or your tenant could live with. Last week I read a set of rules that prohibited any pets, no exceptions. Other rules state a limit on the number of pets and even the weight of dogs! 
</li>
<li>
Be careful with off-the-plan purchases. Even though the real estate agent may say the building will be finished next year, the contract could actually allow for five years until completion. If you sign it, you're stuck with it. Remember that you have limited control over fixtures and fittings: aim to specify as much as possible in the contract. The vendor usually has the right to substitute fittings for similar brands and quality, so it's important to list benchmark brand names. The vendor can also generally make minor variations to your apartment, such as reducing the size by a few square metres. This is risky for one-bedroom apartments: if they are too small, you may struggle to obtain finance. Check with your lender before signing any contract. 
</li>
<li>
Be wary of finance on solar panels, newly-renovated kitchens and new swimming pools and spas. These could have been obtained by the vendor on finance or a hire-purchase arrangement. The vendor may not necessarily own them and this will need to be covered off in the contract of sale, particularly in relation to the Personal Property Securities Register, which is a national database of items secured by finance, including vehicles (but not real estate). The last thing you want is for a financier to be overlooked and then your solar panels are repossessed. 
</li>
<li>
Consider obtaining building and pest inspections. Older period homes may have hidden issues with foundations and roofing, as well as termite infestation. Spending a few hundred dollars on a building and/or pest report could save you a fortune if you avoid buying an issue-plagued home. Blocks of flats built in the 60s and 70s will now (if they haven't already) require their windows to be replaced due to rotting. Read the Owners Corporations Annual General Meeting minutes carefully to see if this has already occurred or is on the cards. Look at how much money the OC has in the bank. Will you be required to contribute to major capital works in the future? Look out for the condition of driveway concrete and stairwell carpets too.</li>
</ol>
Forewarned is forearmed!
Kate Ashmor is the principal of her own law firm, Ashmor Legal, focusing on conveyancing. When she's not toddler-wrangling or tweeting, she serves as deputy chair of Caulfield Park Bendigo Bank and as a board member of Alola Australia. She's the immediate past president of Australian Women Lawyers and <a href="https://www.womensagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">Women's Agenda</a>'s chief legal columnist.
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The legal tips you need to know about buying property

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Guest observation
The seemingly ever increasing property prices in Australia have turned many first home buyers' attention to affordable and fixable homes.
With popular TV programs like Building Ideas and The Block, the media also reinforces this link between the Australian "can-do", DIY attitude and home buying. For first home buyers on a budget, doing it DIY can be appealing.
However, lack of prior investigation and poorly informed decision making can amplify costs – potentially much higher than a first home owner's budget allows. When in the initial stages of your home buying search, you can save your time and valuable money by looking out for warning signs when viewing homes and gauging whether the renovation costs will fit within your budget.
Is there such thing as a 'bargain' home? When purchasing a lower than market value property, there are key points every home buyer should consider.
Drainage System
Buildings showing signs of bad drainage will usually exhibit signs of water seeping through walls and floors (in the form of brown stains on the plaster) and a strong mildew odour. Grey water present at end of pipe drains evidences that a drainage system is blocked by contaminants. Be especially aware of unsanitary black water containing sewage. This is the most hazardous to health, and means that drinking water may also be affected.
Cost of renovation: High
Ceiling
If a structure is not adequate to support a sagging ceiling, there is certain safety hazard. Buildings with damaged ceilings must be repaired immediately. Look out for cracks in the ceiling plaster as well as water stains in the plaster as these will be causes for concern. However, if you notice the ceiling is sagging, the house is more than likely going to be a no-go for someone on a tight budget as this is a the sign that costly reparations are necessary. This is an important consideration- particularly for first time buyers, as you will probably wish to move in right away, but entry will not be permitted without costly repair for safety reasons.
Cost of renovation: High
Floors and Walls
The foundations of a home must be stable in order to be able to house occupants. Cracks across foundations or walls may be the result of soil creep, flood or other natural forces. Structural integrity cannot be compromised. A full audit of cracks is necessary to discern the level damage, but as a general rule of thumb, thin hairline cracks are pose little cause for concern and can be covered with a lick of paint, but large cracks causing the separation of wall plaster or floor tiles present more serious challenges.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to high
Mould
Leakage from a water system or foundation can substantially weaken a structure. Health considerations and sub-standard appearance are a more common result of mould. A mould-laden property with pathogens can lead to poor air quality. Potentially perilous for children, respiratory patients, and pets, mould should be eliminated prior to move-in. Look out for mould (usually in the form of black or grey spores) in areas such as inside cupboards (especially under sinks), on window frames, behind curtain headings or pelmets and along the floor outside showers or bathtubs.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to high
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Pests
The danger of pest infestation is a problem that must be managed with chemicals. These include rodent, roach, ant, and termites. Inspection by a licenced pest control professional will provide exact information on the extent of the damage. Pests tend to nest in cupboards, wardrobes, beneath floorboards and in rarely used parts of the house like the garage, so look out for them in there. If pest excrement is present, it is a sign of infestation.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to high
Roof
Indications of structural roof sagging should be inspected to assess the cost of the damage. Roofs with falling frames will be more costly, while minor levelling problems may not be as expensive to fix.
Cost of renovation: Moderate
Water Stains
When pipes crack or break, flooding, leaks, and seepage can make its way into ceiling and wall foundations. Brown stains in rooms near bath and kitchen amenities are most likely to see extensive damage. Re-plastering is generally the solution if the pipes have already been repaired.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to High
Wood Rot
The deterioration of wood caused by water damage and termite infestation can cause rotting, and even crumbling. One simple method of ascertaining wood rot damage is to press frames around the door and windows of a building. A crumbling or sponge-like texture is usually an indicator that wood rot is taking over key fixtures. These would need to be replaced to keep your home safe from burglars as a crumbling door or window frame won't keep out a concerted break-in effort.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to high
Bargain homes often attract first time buyers, but it's important to move forward with caution when considering this type of property. Replacement of fixtures and structural elements can be expensive depending on the size of the home. Always have a professional evaluate the number and type of repairs required before settling a property deal.
Professional pre-purchase building inspection Firstly, before signing on the dotted line and handing over the deposit on a 'fixer- upper' home, a professional pre-purchase building inspection is advised.
A sound inspection should investigate deeper into the structural integrity of the home and expose any repairs that are necessary to keep the home in a safe condition. Brad Porteus is the Managing Director of BSP Construction Consultants, pre-purchase building inspection specialists in Perth, Western Australia. You can read his contributions on <a href="https://blog.realestateview.com.au/" target="_blank">realestateview.com.au</a>. 
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Can you trust a ‘bargain’ home?

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Guest observation
Even Jessica Simpson could have done his job. In my book Australia: Boom to Bust I argue that since 2008, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Australia's politicians have been managing a credit fuelled property bubble– not an economy.
Here are the simple facts:
<ol>
<li>Interest rates are at record lows</li>
<li>Speculation (lending/negative gearing) on property is at an all-time high</li>
<li>Property prices; particularly in Sydney and Melbourne (37% of Australia's population) are at an all-time high</li>
</ol>
Under the watch of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, this is what Australia's economic reality is. In recent time, the RBA has maintained record low interest rates on the bet that the housing sector would pick up the slack as investment in the mining sector declines.
What is clear is that the RBA governors' bet has paid off only to leave the heart of Australian household wealth and liabilities 100% dependant on property price growth.
Australian households have not only bet on house prices only rising. But their retirement &amp; superannuation funds have also bet the banking system will forever be able to lend more to homebuyers than the previous year. That is what the Australian banking system relies on. Any changes break-down the flow of money in the form of debt to new homebuyers.
As Bubble Economics authors Philip Soos and Paul Egan rightly point out, property investors today are chasing net-yields comparable to the tech bubble of the late 90's. In a nutshell, when there is such heavy demand to invest in a market that secures incredibly lousy yields, history tells us the particular market is in a heavy state of speculation.
Furthermore, it also overshadows the oversupply of toxic debt, which is the real reason property prices are where they are today.
First time home buyers (FHBs) are (without the help of parents lifesavings) utterly priced out of home ownership. With the strong possibility that macroprudential tools may be implemented in an attempt to cool the housing market, it is clear that whatever tools are used, FHBs will make up an even smaller proportion of property buyers.
Pushing FHBs to the sideline for an immediate period of time might actually help protect this segment of the property buyers out there from getting themselves into too much debt. But negate their fair chance to own a home like their previous generations have– for a much lower cost. Where does this leave us? With the real risk a generation of retirees, self-managed super fund investors and other recent property buyers holding large sums of debt that will become underwater mortgages when the property market turns south.
The RBA has had six years to make housing more affordable for all Australian's and to not let the property bubble grow. In this instance, the RBA has chronically failed by successfully keeping the property bubble inflated at the cost of the rest of the domestic economy. On top of this there is a chronic oversupply of toxic debt which has been successfully overshadowed by the banking and real estate pundits.
They argue that there is an apparent shortage of housing stock, but never question or mention an oversupply of debt. This is Australia's reality today. This was also America and Ireland's reality back in 2006. It did not end well for those two nations, and it will end no better for Australia.
It's time Australia's central bankers and politicians were actually held accountable for the decisions (or lack thereof) they have made. They must be challenged by our local mainstream media on the facts, not the talk. If our powerful media dives deeper into the decision making process of the RBA board, they will find that they are truly living in Disneyland. Because that's what the maths tell us.
If you think the RBA would not have been better managed under another leader, just think of this simple fact.
Even if Jessica Simpson was the RBA governor between 2008-2012, the Australian economy would have continuously grown.
Why?
Because a country 5,000 miles away called China made a once in a lifetime investment into an iron ore intensive construction binge.
It was almost mathematically impossible for the Australian economy to fail, or enter recession between late 2008 and late 2012.
Now this binge seems en-route to end. And Australia is now a country with absolutely nothing to fall back on but an overseas banker's willingness to lend more wholesale debt to the Australian banking system - and from the Australian banking system to households.
A failed RBA lead by a failed Governor.
Lindsay David is a co-founder of clean technology company GreenRigCo and a former strategy and business development consultant. You can read his blog <a href="/expert-insights/finance/fire-the-rba-governor">here</a>. 
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Fire the RBA Governor

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The <a href="https://www.rpdata.com/images/stories/content/pressreleases/2014-10-01--rpdata-rismark-home-value-index.pdf">latest house price index</a> figures released by RP Data earlier this week show a year-on-year increase in property values in Sydney of 14.3%. This has sparked the current hot debate on property prices and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/is-there-a-housing-bubble-thats-about-to-burst-in-australia/story-e6frflo9-1227062516640">speculation</a> of a price bubble. Though, it seems many people have forgotten what house price indices represent.
The All Ordinaries, the index of broad Australian equities market movements, increased by around 9% in the 12 months to the start of September. As investors understand, this doesn’t equate to all stocks on the market increasing in price by 9% over that period.
For example, shareholders in BHP, one of the largest ASX companies by market capitalisation, have suffered a modest loss over that period, even after dividend payments are considered. And as the All Ordinaries Index value has fallen 6% over the past month, there have been some stocks that have fallen more (Myer shares tumbled nearly 20% in the month) and others that have gone against the trend (insurer QBE was up 1.2% in September).
Similarly, a house price index gives a measure of the broad property market movement. In the case of the RP Data-Rismark Index, the change in the index value reflects the average increase or decrease in property prices.
Prices in Australian capital cities, the typical benchmark measure of the Australian residential real estate market, increased by 9.3% in the year to September.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/60563/area14mp/fx9nb9ry-1412182860.jpg"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/60563/width668/fx9nb9ry-1412182860.jpg" alt=""></a> Source: RP Data
In Canberra and Perth, however, the reported growth in real estate prices was significantly lower at 3.2% and 1.7% respectively. Outside of capital cities property price growth was also a modest 3.3%.
Even in Sydney, which has experienced the strongest price growth of any capital city, there are marked differences in the rate of price appreciation between different suburbs. Western Sydney clearly captures this with residents in <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/realestate/buying/price-hikes-for-homes-in-popular-western-sydney-suburbs-eclipse-annual-income-of-most-residents/story-fni0cate-1227049569685">South Granville</a> enjoying an increase in median property price of around 17.5%, while reported median prices have shown virtually no annual change in <a href="/news">Auburn</a>.
Blunt policy tools are not the answer
It wasn’t so long ago that the average price of Perth’s houses surpassed Sydney’s on the back of a mining industry-led boom in the West. At the national level, these differences in property price growth are the result of shifting labour and economic factors, and to a lesser extent state-specific regulation.
Within a city, local amenities and employment, as well as the preferences of the potential home buyers are reflected in price growth variation.
This is a key point that needs to be remembered when blunt policy tools are debated. Measures to tighten home loan lending, increase borrowing costs or remove negative gearing affect the market as a whole, whether in Sydney, Perth, or a regional centre.
For policy to be effective it needs to firstly identify what it aims to achieve. Housing policy is a double-edged sword. Rapidly rising house prices can put home ownership beyond the reach of younger and lower-income Australians. But policy designed to lower house prices can put existing homeowners at risk of falling “underwater” - holding negative equity in their property. Again, it is typically lower-income households that are most at risk in this scenario.
Cooling the bubble talk
The growing pressure for a policy response to rising house prices is in part due to fears of a price bubble. The last time the Australian or Sydney house price index increased at more than 10% in a year was 2009. Unsurprisingly, there were calls then too that increased regulation was required to prevent a property bubble burst and housing crisis.
Since 1996, Sydney real estate prices have grown at an average annual rate of 7.26% though, with considerable variation in that time. A growth rate in a single year of 10% in any other asset market with these dynamics would not be cause for alarm. Yet housing has this perception of being low risk, pervading our cultural psyche. Something idiomatically described as “safe as houses” is viewed as guaranteed or risk-free.
When faced with the reality that property prices go up and down, sometimes fast and sometimes slow, we seek ways to explain the conflict with these cultural expectations. Assigning the label or “price bubble” shifts the responsibility for our own irrationalities back on the market.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/32366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Danika Wright is affiliated with Sirca, as a member of the Sirca-RP Data Advisory Board. She is a lecturer in Finance at the University of Sydney. 
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rational-talk-on-housing-prices-lost-in-a-bubble-32366">original article</a>.
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Rational talk on housing prices lost in a bubble

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Another 2,820 lots of land will be launched into Melbourne's west by Satterley Property Group as they open two new residential developments in one month.
Upper Point Cook is a 2,000-lot offering in Point Cook, while Habitat, on Davis Creek in Tarneit, will be providing the other 820 lots, which they're calling some of the cheapest housing in the state.
Habitat's house and land packages are expected to span from less than $300,000 to above $450,000.
Habitat spans 65 hectares, on the corner of Sayers Road and Davis Road, includes more than 150 lots fronting Davis Creek and 14 hectares of open space.
Upper Point Cook will be the first to launch, followed three weeks later by Habitat on 26 October.
Satterley Victoria general manager Jack Hoffman said that since announcing the two, interest has been strong, particularly from first home buyers.
"Upper Point Cook and Habitat on Davis Creek are two quality master-planned communities that combine premium housing options and affordability," said Hoffman.
"Upper Point Cook is one of the few remaining quality land parcels close to shops, public transport and with direct access to the Princes Highway."
Strong sales are expected on launch weekend, with completion of the project to welcome 5,000 new residents.
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Satterley Property Group launches two new developments in Melbourne’s west

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The Australian Institute of Architecture's inaugural People's Choice Awards will for the first time give the public the opportunity to choose the best house of the year.
The public can choose from the 13 homes shortlisted by the National Jury, with votes closing on October 29.
The short listed entries:
Bellevue Terrace Alterations + Additions – Philip Stejskal Architecture (WA)
Tamarama Semi-D – David Langston-Jones (NSW)
West End Tower – Owen and Vokes and Peters (Qld)
Griffith House – Popov Bass Architects (NSW)
Southern Outlet House – Philip M Dingemanse (Tas)
Strohmayr House – Troppo Architects (NT)
Highgate Hill House – Twofold Studio &amp; Cox Rayner Architects (Qld)
House at Hanging Rock – Kerstin Thompson Architects (Vic)
Hover House – Bower Architecture (Vic)
K House – Chenchow Little (NSW)
Lune de Sang – Stone House – CHROFI (NSW)
Oxlade Drive House – James Russell Architect (Qld)
South Yarra Warehouse – NMBW Architecture Studio (Vic) 
Property Observer has picked out five standout entries. Cast the vote for your favourite in our Property Observer poll.
<img src="/images/2014/10/3/1Res-AA_PhilipStejskalArchitecture_BellevueTerraceAlterations_BoWong.jpg" alt="">
Bellevue Terrace Alterations + Additions – Philip Stejskal Architecture (WA)
To see more of our picks, click below.
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<img src="/images/2014/10/3/2Res-New_PopovBassArchitects_GriffithHouse_SharrinRees-1.jpg" alt="">
 Griffith House – Popov Bass Architects (NSW)
To see more of our picks, click below.
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<img src="/images/2014/10/3/3Res-AA_TwoFoldsStudioCoxRaynerArchitects_HighgateHillHouse_ChristopherFrederickJones.jpg" alt="">
 Highgate Hill House – Twofold Studio &amp; Cox Rayner Architects (Qld)
To see more of our picks, click below.
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<img src="/images/2014/10/3/4Res-New_KerstinThompsonArchitects_HouseatHangingRock_TrevorMein-1.jpg" alt="">
House at Hanging Rock – Kerstin Thompson Architects (Vic)
To see more of our picks, click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<img src="/images/2014/10/3/5Res-New_BowerArchitecture_TheHoverHouse_ShannonMcGrath.jpg" alt="">
Hover House – Bower Architecture (Vic)
You can see the other shortlisted entries and vote at the <a href="https://wp.architecture.com.au/news-media/peoples-choice-award/?utm_source=aia&amp;utm_medium=banner&amp;utm_campaign=peoples%20choice%20award" target="_blank">People's Choice Awards website</a>.
{mijopolls 46}
 
 
 
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Cast your vote for Australia's best home of the year

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The definition of the first home owner in Australia is not what it once was.
In realestateVIEW.com.au's latest report, the First Home Market Report, a national survey was conducted investigating the goals and opinions of over 1,000 Australian first home buyers (44.6%), first home owners (31.2%) and non-buyers (24.1%). Who are Australia's first home buyers today?
<img src="/images/2014/10/2/First-Home-Buyers-Report-Infographic2.png" alt="">
 Petra Sprekos is the general manager of <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/" target="_blank">realestateview.com.au</a>.
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First Home Buyers: Want the real story?

A long-stalled Campbelltown development site is back in play, with new plans for 139 apartments set to supersede a mixed-use scheme approved almost a decade ago but never built.

The new proposal for 28 Cordeaux Street would deliver 116 market and 23 affordable apartments in a part 14-storey building, bringing a substantial new project into a Campbelltown market where new apartment supply remains limited.

Plans have been filed over the 3,092 sqm corner site at Moore-Oxley Street, around 600 metres from Campbelltown Railway Station and the city-centre retail core.

The site already carries a mixed-use residential approval dating to 2016. Doroch Architects has now been engaged on a larger replacement scheme, which is progressing as a State Significant Development Application following a Housing Delivery Authority determination in August 2025.

The apartment mix comprises 39 one-bedroom, 72 two-bedroom and 28 three-bedroom residences. Two-bedroom apartments make up just over half of the project, while three-bedroom homes account for 20 per cent.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="136dd5b9-3791-4da6-9e31-76f533f5b4de" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da2.png?VersionId=LgOSy9nwf5u.MGswBBwaGGxuX8QpHSl_" />

Of the 139 apartments, 23 will be delivered as affordable housing under the in-fill affordable housing provisions of the Housing SEPP. The affordable component represents 15 per cent of the residential gross floor area and will be managed by a registered Community Housing Provider.

Doroch has sought to break the scale of the building into two distinct elements, with a masonry podium of around four storeys establishing the street edge before the residential tower steps back above.

The corner position has shaped that approach. Cordeaux Street faces toward the commercial and civic centre, while Moore-Oxley Street leads into the lower-scale residential neighbourhood to the south, and the design verification report describes the site as "bridging the commercial core to the north and established residential areas to the south."

The podium will be expressed predominantly in face brick, while the upper levels shift to brushed and grooved concrete cladding with darker metal detailing. Recessed sections, deep balcony edges and landscaping break down the upper form, with an approximately 11.8-metre setback to the northern boundary addressing the adjoining St Peters Anglican School.

<img alt="First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c8b3d2d3-c561-4bfc-a5d9-a68c0c10dac1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Campbelltown%20da1.png?VersionId=AeAEyJU02Gk2k5noUj2StziCvdQ7fW4B" />

Campbelltown has been starved of new residential developments in the last decade.

The only other notable development set to come to market this year is ALAND's Queen Square, a mixed-use precinct on over two hectares that will comprise apartments above a vibrant ground-level retail and hospitality dining precinct.

Joel Robinson

First look: New 139-apartment plans revive long-stalled Campbelltown city centre site

First Look: Sherlock Construction pitches apartments for low-rise Deception Bay

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Jessie Richardson

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