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Guest observation
China's economic slowdown is for real.
However, we may find this slowdown could be the one we have to have to provide the foundation for long-term progress.
China's problems are known: the consumer, internet and casinos are crowded trades with clear risks.
Here are four trends which reveal the pressure on China's attempts at rebalancing growth.
 
<ol>
<li>
Crackdown on corruption hits casinos and residential property The corruption crackdown is affecting some major casinos' ability to turn a profit. Take Macau: VIP and junket-rolling chip value declined 3% year-on-year (year-on-year) and 14% quarter-on-quarter (quarter-to-quarter). The supposed saviour, mass market gambling, saw revenue growth slowing to 16% year-on-year in the first half of 2014 and further to 13% year-on-year in July 2014, as compared to 32% last year. Table yields (the amount of money a casino makes per table per day) had risen from US$4,600 in the first quarter of 2010 to US$12,900 in the first quarter of 2014, but have since fallen marginally in the second quarter. We recently met SOHO China, a developer and landlord of office properties in Shanghai and Beijing. It confirmed recent reports that the residential property market has cooled, particularly the luxury end. Apart from slowing demand, luxury apartments are sometimes offered at 20-30% discounts to some insiders. An initiative to make ownership records transparent as China prepares to levy property tax also has the unintended effect of revealing people who own multiple properties disproportionate to their income. 
</li>
<li>
Online retail a double-edged sword; prices are down but reach grows The top 10 offline retailers had 9% share of total retail in year 2007, rising to 11.2% in 2012. Compare this to online retail as a percentage of total retail, which went from 0.2% in 2007 to 6.3% in 2012. Online retail is a double-edged sword for consumption. For 'old economy' asset-intensive businesses the online channel is a serious threat that puts downward pressure on pricing. At the same time, it dramatically increases the reach and access for suppliers and brands to cities and towns that earlier could never justify a mall or physical presence. This will lead to an enlarged pie of total retail sales. Over time, if income levels in less developed parts of China do increase, retail sales can see a boost due to the reach of online retail formats. 
</li>
<li>
Major developer abandons retail malls Retail sales at department stores are falling. China Vanke, one of the largest property developers, has taken a strategic decision not to build any more retail malls. This trend is compounded by the rise of e-commerce, but also reflects lower demand for high end products. Virtually every department store in China is witnessing negative same-store sales. Luxury brands are resigned to use flagship stores as mere adjuncts to brand building, as opposed to outlets where they can sell their goods. According to a report from Bain Consulting, Chinese consumers accounted for 29% of global luxury goods spend in 2013. Recent trends in value-added tax refunds in Europe for Chinese customers show a marked slowdown to just 9-10% year-on-year growth. Just like the slowdown in China GDP growth affected commodity producers across the world, so too this crackdown has ramifications across the world. 
</li>
<li>
Hypermarkets disappoint as employee benefits cease Hypermarkets and supermarkets in China have fared worse at a time you would normally expect them to do relatively better. Sun Art Retail, one of the largest hypermarkets, recorded flat same-store sales this half. Combing through the accounts of department stores and hypermarkets, one analyst pointed out the big drop in Business to Government (B2G) pre-paid cards. State-owned enterprises in China had a practice of buying pre-paid cards at these stores and gifting them to employees or customers. That practice is now frowned upon in China. This last point is worth pondering upon. Even supermarkets and hypermarkets were deriving sales from customers who did not earn that spending money but were gifted that money. What does all that tell you about the rebalancing? I have marginal exposure in consumer, casinos and the internet. The rest of 'poor quality' cyclical China is cheap and that is where I have invested my attention.</li>
</ol>
 Samir Mehta manages the <a href="https://www.btim.com.au/" target="_blank">BT Wholesale Asian Share Fund</a> of JO Hambro Capital Managed Funds.
 
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

China's downturn will do it - and the world - some good

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Guest observation
Property media in Australia can be confusing at the best of times. But in August, it was contradictory madness.
"Jump aboard as prices continue to rise," trumpeted local commentators. "Your crash is coming," overseas experts chimed in.
"Beware Australia's housing bubble," cried the Reserve Bank. Treasurer Joe Hockey then dismissed that idea. Next, the Reserve Bank said prices were "not a crisis" before sending "warnings" of an "inflated market" with potential for, yep, "bubbles".
So our dinner tables are now places of effervescent debate. Property is becoming notorious enough to be off-limits alongside sex, religion and politics. With each contradictory headline, prejudices burn on both sides of the fence. Everyone's an expert.
Yet if we focus more on what's happening in our own "micro markets", we often have all the answers.
Supply and demand drives price, so forget looking at Australia as a whole. We need to see the market in specific price brackets, geographies and lifestyles.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic.jpeg" alt="">
Sydney's art deco coastal belt - a micro market of its own. (Image supplied)
When buying, we don't view Australia as one market. We don't even see Sydney as one. And postcodes don't dictate precise boundaries for residents. People see a certain way of life, delivered by a similar category of home, across a variety of suburbs that cater to a specific lifestyle.
Think student belts from <a href="/news">Kensington</a> to <a href="/news">Camperdown</a>. Think brand new apartments from <a href="/news">Bondi Junction</a> to <a href="/news">Chippendale</a>. Think luxury homes around waterfronts. Think 3-bedroom inner-city terraces around $1.2 million.
They're just 4 different micro markets, moving independently of each other. And there's plenty more, each with their own lifestyle and buyer profile of residents wanting the same home.
As bubble chatter continues, some of these homes have boomed in value, while some prices have dropped. Certain rents have skyrocketed. Other landlords have slashed prices.
Luxury houses in prestige streets of <a href="/news">Woollahra</a> and <a href="/news">Point Piper</a> make another micro market. Prices in these pockets are down from levels seen three years ago. Try telling those owners we're in a "property boom". Yet that's what these stories keep beating up.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic2.jpeg" alt="">
Not booming: This home in Jersey Rd, Woollahra sold in 2008 for $2.2 million. It recently sold for the same money in 2014.
As savvy buyers and sellers, it makes sense to hone in on these mini trends, because each micro market performs differently over time. The wider data doesn’t tell us this.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/mic3.jpeg" alt="">
Across in Marrickville, this cottage sold in 2005 for $425,000. With some cosmetic updates, it fetched more than $1 million in 2014.
Residents who understand how their own sector of the market is performing can identify periods of dropping price, growth, and steady phases with no movement.
Existing owners can still capitalise on knowledge of micro markets. As sellers or landlords, the trick is to position our property correctly to capture the most demand.
Then, we can strategise and set objectives. We can make changes, renovate to suit the area, market homes differently, or wait. Understanding what's happening around us can be far more valuable than waiting on interest rate changes or following wider data.
When buying, we shouldn't accept reports that all home categories are hot. If Sydney and Australia is booming, we can still pounce on the ups and downs of the micro markets that suit our needs as buyers.
Even within all this "bubble" and "boom", the best buying/selling can find untapped momentum. We just have to become more in tune with our neighbourhoods.
Shannan Whitney is the chief executive of <a href="https://www.bresicwhitney.com.au/buy" target="_blank">BresicWhitney Estate Agents</a>.
 
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Forget one big bubble: we're a nation of micromarkets

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Guest observation
As we go about our lives, it's easy to get caught up in everyday expenses without thinking about future finances.
Retirement is supposed to be about living the life you want, but that means having enough money to do the things you love.
According to the 2012–2013 Australian Bureau of Statistics, only 4.5% of people who retired from the labour force have a total gross weekly household income of $2,000 or more.
The 2014 Budget outlined Federal Government plans to lift the retirement age to 70 by the year 2035, and Treasurer Joe Hockey has started the conversation about lifting the superannuation preservation age to match.
The impact of this means you will have more time for your investments to grow and less time to spend the results. But consider, too, you may need to stop work earlier than you intend.
So while the rules around retirement may change, one certainty is that tomorrow's retirees will need a plan that includes super, supplemented by passive income from other investment.
For the purpose of this article all examples will be based on a retirement age of 65 and rounded to the nearest $1,000.
Out of Sync
Improvements in aged care and diet, along with medical advances mean the majority of people today will live longer than generations that went before them. As a result, our retirement expectations are out of sync with our retirement savings, and most of us aren't saving enough to pursue our retirement dreams.
Our idea of what is 'comfortable' is likely to be slightly more than the Association of Superannuation Fund Australia's definition at AU$41,169 a year for singles or $56,317 for couples.
The consensus is that 60% to 65% of your pre-retirement household income should be your retirement income target. Therefore, if you earn a household income of around $160,000 per annum pre-retirement, an annual retirement income goal of $2,000 per week or $104,000 p.a. would be a more appropriate target to maintain your standard of living.
How Much Do You Need?
If you want to earn $104,000 p.a. in retirement, you will need to be mortgage-free and have AU$2,600,000 (in today's dollars) in investments (based on a 4 per cent return). With inflation at 3 per cent, in 15 years' time this equates to an annual income of $162,000 from a $4,051,000 portfolio.
<img src="/images/2014/10/7/Picture%208.png" alt="">
Based on 4% p.a. investment return, 3% p.a. inflation. Figures rounded up to the nearest thousand.
Meet Tony and Judy Jones
Tony and Judy represent an average professional Australian couple whose goal is to retire in 15 years at age 65. They currently have an annual income of $160,000 and also have $155,000 in superannuation savings. Tony and Judy want to travel around the world and visit relatives overseas.
They also want to be able to pay for their daughter's wedding and access the right medical care and retirement accommodation when needed.
In 15 years Tony and Judy's superannuation savings will grow to $533,000 from their regular contributions and returns from funds invested. Despite this growth they still have a retirement shortfall of $3,518,000, if they want to achieve those financial and lifestyle goals. That means they'll need to save $235,000 every year for the next 15 years.
It's a frightening figure. But there is a smarter way for Tony and Judy to close the gap.
Plan Earlier and Smarter
Most Australians like Tony and Judy struggle to reach what they need to achieve a comfortable retirement because they don't have a plan in place. Typically, like Tony and Judy, their savings are accumulation-based. With this approach it's unlikely they'll reach their goals by retirement age. The alternative way is to earn money from assets.
There are many investment products available with the most common being direct shares, high interest savings accounts, extra super contributions, term deposits, self-managed super funds and managed investments.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Investing in Property
Property growth is another investment that can help you build wealth.
<img src="/images/2014/10/7/Picture%2010.png" alt="">
Source: Residex June 2012
With such a sustained growth, you'd think more Australians would invest in property, but according to the Australian Taxation Office,5 only 1.7 million Australians are recorded as having an interest in a rental property. Of those, the majority (72 per cent) have an interest in only one rental property.
If we go back to Tony and Judy's case, for example, we have established they need to save $235,000 a year for each of the next 15 years. Structuring the purchase of four rental properties into their investment plan would be one way for them to reach this goal.
<img src="/images/2014/10/7/Picture%2012.png" alt="">
All figures rounded to the nearest $1,000.
If property is to be included in your investment portfolio, you may consider enlisting the expertise of a professional who specialises in property investment.
Where to From Here?
If you decide to invest in property, take some time to consider your overall retirement goals and timeframes and be sure to work with a reputable company that can assist you in building an investment portfolio.
The right consultant will consider your current situation and goals, calculate your borrowing capacity, then provide a plan with a clear strategy to achieve your desired outcome, making sure your decisions are informed, and not based on emotion.
Michael Fuller is a Property Consultant at <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au" target="_blank">Direct Property Network </a>(DPN).
 
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Earn $100K or more in retirement: informed planning needed

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Guest observation
Spring is the peak season for real estate and many of you will be in the market to purchase a property, whether for yourself to live in or as an investment.
Before you head out to an inspection next weekend, or sign a contract of sale, please keep the following list of tips in mind.
<ol>
<li>
List all fixtures/extras in the contract. Anything not physically bolted down is considered a chattel, not a fixture, and could be removed by the vendor. To avoid any doubt, list removable items in the contract. These include dishwashers, free-standing ovens, pool equipment, mirrors, mantel pieces, garden sheds, pot plants and farm equipment. Vendors have been known to remove free-standing dishwashers and ovens before settlement. And be on the lookout for anything you might be buying with the property which is not particularly desirable. I recently reviewed a contract where a daggy sofa bed located in an attic-style room was included in the sale, probably because it was almost physically impossible to remove it! 
</li>
<li>
Read the Owners Corporation rules. Owners Corporations, or Body Corporates, own and manage the common property in subdivisions. Each owner pays a contribution to the maintenance of the common property and shared services provided to the owners, such as gardening and caretaking. Some large apartment developments have more than one Owners Corporation, especially where there are carparks, gyms and swimming pools. Every Owners Corporation has rules; if they don't make their own rules the default legislative rules apply. Always carefully read through the OC rules in the contract, to see if they are something you or your tenant could live with. Last week I read a set of rules that prohibited any pets, no exceptions. Other rules state a limit on the number of pets and even the weight of dogs! 
</li>
<li>
Be careful with off-the-plan purchases. Even though the real estate agent may say the building will be finished next year, the contract could actually allow for five years until completion. If you sign it, you're stuck with it. Remember that you have limited control over fixtures and fittings: aim to specify as much as possible in the contract. The vendor usually has the right to substitute fittings for similar brands and quality, so it's important to list benchmark brand names. The vendor can also generally make minor variations to your apartment, such as reducing the size by a few square metres. This is risky for one-bedroom apartments: if they are too small, you may struggle to obtain finance. Check with your lender before signing any contract. 
</li>
<li>
Be wary of finance on solar panels, newly-renovated kitchens and new swimming pools and spas. These could have been obtained by the vendor on finance or a hire-purchase arrangement. The vendor may not necessarily own them and this will need to be covered off in the contract of sale, particularly in relation to the Personal Property Securities Register, which is a national database of items secured by finance, including vehicles (but not real estate). The last thing you want is for a financier to be overlooked and then your solar panels are repossessed. 
</li>
<li>
Consider obtaining building and pest inspections. Older period homes may have hidden issues with foundations and roofing, as well as termite infestation. Spending a few hundred dollars on a building and/or pest report could save you a fortune if you avoid buying an issue-plagued home. Blocks of flats built in the 60s and 70s will now (if they haven't already) require their windows to be replaced due to rotting. Read the Owners Corporations Annual General Meeting minutes carefully to see if this has already occurred or is on the cards. Look at how much money the OC has in the bank. Will you be required to contribute to major capital works in the future? Look out for the condition of driveway concrete and stairwell carpets too.</li>
</ol>
Forewarned is forearmed!
Kate Ashmor is the principal of her own law firm, Ashmor Legal, focusing on conveyancing. When she's not toddler-wrangling or tweeting, she serves as deputy chair of Caulfield Park Bendigo Bank and as a board member of Alola Australia. She's the immediate past president of Australian Women Lawyers and <a href="https://www.womensagenda.com.au/" target="_blank">Women's Agenda</a>'s chief legal columnist.
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The legal tips you need to know about buying property

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Guest observation
The seemingly ever increasing property prices in Australia have turned many first home buyers' attention to affordable and fixable homes.
With popular TV programs like Building Ideas and The Block, the media also reinforces this link between the Australian "can-do", DIY attitude and home buying. For first home buyers on a budget, doing it DIY can be appealing.
However, lack of prior investigation and poorly informed decision making can amplify costs – potentially much higher than a first home owner's budget allows. When in the initial stages of your home buying search, you can save your time and valuable money by looking out for warning signs when viewing homes and gauging whether the renovation costs will fit within your budget.
Is there such thing as a 'bargain' home? When purchasing a lower than market value property, there are key points every home buyer should consider.
Drainage System
Buildings showing signs of bad drainage will usually exhibit signs of water seeping through walls and floors (in the form of brown stains on the plaster) and a strong mildew odour. Grey water present at end of pipe drains evidences that a drainage system is blocked by contaminants. Be especially aware of unsanitary black water containing sewage. This is the most hazardous to health, and means that drinking water may also be affected.
Cost of renovation: High
Ceiling
If a structure is not adequate to support a sagging ceiling, there is certain safety hazard. Buildings with damaged ceilings must be repaired immediately. Look out for cracks in the ceiling plaster as well as water stains in the plaster as these will be causes for concern. However, if you notice the ceiling is sagging, the house is more than likely going to be a no-go for someone on a tight budget as this is a the sign that costly reparations are necessary. This is an important consideration- particularly for first time buyers, as you will probably wish to move in right away, but entry will not be permitted without costly repair for safety reasons.
Cost of renovation: High
Floors and Walls
The foundations of a home must be stable in order to be able to house occupants. Cracks across foundations or walls may be the result of soil creep, flood or other natural forces. Structural integrity cannot be compromised. A full audit of cracks is necessary to discern the level damage, but as a general rule of thumb, thin hairline cracks are pose little cause for concern and can be covered with a lick of paint, but large cracks causing the separation of wall plaster or floor tiles present more serious challenges.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to high
Mould
Leakage from a water system or foundation can substantially weaken a structure. Health considerations and sub-standard appearance are a more common result of mould. A mould-laden property with pathogens can lead to poor air quality. Potentially perilous for children, respiratory patients, and pets, mould should be eliminated prior to move-in. Look out for mould (usually in the form of black or grey spores) in areas such as inside cupboards (especially under sinks), on window frames, behind curtain headings or pelmets and along the floor outside showers or bathtubs.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to high
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
Pests
The danger of pest infestation is a problem that must be managed with chemicals. These include rodent, roach, ant, and termites. Inspection by a licenced pest control professional will provide exact information on the extent of the damage. Pests tend to nest in cupboards, wardrobes, beneath floorboards and in rarely used parts of the house like the garage, so look out for them in there. If pest excrement is present, it is a sign of infestation.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to high
Roof
Indications of structural roof sagging should be inspected to assess the cost of the damage. Roofs with falling frames will be more costly, while minor levelling problems may not be as expensive to fix.
Cost of renovation: Moderate
Water Stains
When pipes crack or break, flooding, leaks, and seepage can make its way into ceiling and wall foundations. Brown stains in rooms near bath and kitchen amenities are most likely to see extensive damage. Re-plastering is generally the solution if the pipes have already been repaired.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to High
Wood Rot
The deterioration of wood caused by water damage and termite infestation can cause rotting, and even crumbling. One simple method of ascertaining wood rot damage is to press frames around the door and windows of a building. A crumbling or sponge-like texture is usually an indicator that wood rot is taking over key fixtures. These would need to be replaced to keep your home safe from burglars as a crumbling door or window frame won't keep out a concerted break-in effort.
Cost of renovation: Moderate to high
Bargain homes often attract first time buyers, but it's important to move forward with caution when considering this type of property. Replacement of fixtures and structural elements can be expensive depending on the size of the home. Always have a professional evaluate the number and type of repairs required before settling a property deal.
Professional pre-purchase building inspection Firstly, before signing on the dotted line and handing over the deposit on a 'fixer- upper' home, a professional pre-purchase building inspection is advised.
A sound inspection should investigate deeper into the structural integrity of the home and expose any repairs that are necessary to keep the home in a safe condition. Brad Porteus is the Managing Director of BSP Construction Consultants, pre-purchase building inspection specialists in Perth, Western Australia. You can read his contributions on <a href="https://blog.realestateview.com.au/" target="_blank">realestateview.com.au</a>. 
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Can you trust a ‘bargain’ home?

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Guest observation
Even Jessica Simpson could have done his job. In my book Australia: Boom to Bust I argue that since 2008, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Australia's politicians have been managing a credit fuelled property bubble– not an economy.
Here are the simple facts:
<ol>
<li>Interest rates are at record lows</li>
<li>Speculation (lending/negative gearing) on property is at an all-time high</li>
<li>Property prices; particularly in Sydney and Melbourne (37% of Australia's population) are at an all-time high</li>
</ol>
Under the watch of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, this is what Australia's economic reality is. In recent time, the RBA has maintained record low interest rates on the bet that the housing sector would pick up the slack as investment in the mining sector declines.
What is clear is that the RBA governors' bet has paid off only to leave the heart of Australian household wealth and liabilities 100% dependant on property price growth.
Australian households have not only bet on house prices only rising. But their retirement &amp; superannuation funds have also bet the banking system will forever be able to lend more to homebuyers than the previous year. That is what the Australian banking system relies on. Any changes break-down the flow of money in the form of debt to new homebuyers.
As Bubble Economics authors Philip Soos and Paul Egan rightly point out, property investors today are chasing net-yields comparable to the tech bubble of the late 90's. In a nutshell, when there is such heavy demand to invest in a market that secures incredibly lousy yields, history tells us the particular market is in a heavy state of speculation.
Furthermore, it also overshadows the oversupply of toxic debt, which is the real reason property prices are where they are today.
First time home buyers (FHBs) are (without the help of parents lifesavings) utterly priced out of home ownership. With the strong possibility that macroprudential tools may be implemented in an attempt to cool the housing market, it is clear that whatever tools are used, FHBs will make up an even smaller proportion of property buyers.
Pushing FHBs to the sideline for an immediate period of time might actually help protect this segment of the property buyers out there from getting themselves into too much debt. But negate their fair chance to own a home like their previous generations have– for a much lower cost. Where does this leave us? With the real risk a generation of retirees, self-managed super fund investors and other recent property buyers holding large sums of debt that will become underwater mortgages when the property market turns south.
The RBA has had six years to make housing more affordable for all Australian's and to not let the property bubble grow. In this instance, the RBA has chronically failed by successfully keeping the property bubble inflated at the cost of the rest of the domestic economy. On top of this there is a chronic oversupply of toxic debt which has been successfully overshadowed by the banking and real estate pundits.
They argue that there is an apparent shortage of housing stock, but never question or mention an oversupply of debt. This is Australia's reality today. This was also America and Ireland's reality back in 2006. It did not end well for those two nations, and it will end no better for Australia.
It's time Australia's central bankers and politicians were actually held accountable for the decisions (or lack thereof) they have made. They must be challenged by our local mainstream media on the facts, not the talk. If our powerful media dives deeper into the decision making process of the RBA board, they will find that they are truly living in Disneyland. Because that's what the maths tell us.
If you think the RBA would not have been better managed under another leader, just think of this simple fact.
Even if Jessica Simpson was the RBA governor between 2008-2012, the Australian economy would have continuously grown.
Why?
Because a country 5,000 miles away called China made a once in a lifetime investment into an iron ore intensive construction binge.
It was almost mathematically impossible for the Australian economy to fail, or enter recession between late 2008 and late 2012.
Now this binge seems en-route to end. And Australia is now a country with absolutely nothing to fall back on but an overseas banker's willingness to lend more wholesale debt to the Australian banking system - and from the Australian banking system to households.
A failed RBA lead by a failed Governor.
Lindsay David is a co-founder of clean technology company GreenRigCo and a former strategy and business development consultant. You can read his blog <a href="/expert-insights/finance/fire-the-rba-governor">here</a>. 
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Fire the RBA Governor

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The <a href="https://www.rpdata.com/images/stories/content/pressreleases/2014-10-01--rpdata-rismark-home-value-index.pdf">latest house price index</a> figures released by RP Data earlier this week show a year-on-year increase in property values in Sydney of 14.3%. This has sparked the current hot debate on property prices and <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/is-there-a-housing-bubble-thats-about-to-burst-in-australia/story-e6frflo9-1227062516640">speculation</a> of a price bubble. Though, it seems many people have forgotten what house price indices represent.
The All Ordinaries, the index of broad Australian equities market movements, increased by around 9% in the 12 months to the start of September. As investors understand, this doesn’t equate to all stocks on the market increasing in price by 9% over that period.
For example, shareholders in BHP, one of the largest ASX companies by market capitalisation, have suffered a modest loss over that period, even after dividend payments are considered. And as the All Ordinaries Index value has fallen 6% over the past month, there have been some stocks that have fallen more (Myer shares tumbled nearly 20% in the month) and others that have gone against the trend (insurer QBE was up 1.2% in September).
Similarly, a house price index gives a measure of the broad property market movement. In the case of the RP Data-Rismark Index, the change in the index value reflects the average increase or decrease in property prices.
Prices in Australian capital cities, the typical benchmark measure of the Australian residential real estate market, increased by 9.3% in the year to September.
<a href="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/60563/area14mp/fx9nb9ry-1412182860.jpg"><img src="https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/60563/width668/fx9nb9ry-1412182860.jpg" alt=""></a> Source: RP Data
In Canberra and Perth, however, the reported growth in real estate prices was significantly lower at 3.2% and 1.7% respectively. Outside of capital cities property price growth was also a modest 3.3%.
Even in Sydney, which has experienced the strongest price growth of any capital city, there are marked differences in the rate of price appreciation between different suburbs. Western Sydney clearly captures this with residents in <a href="https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/realestate/buying/price-hikes-for-homes-in-popular-western-sydney-suburbs-eclipse-annual-income-of-most-residents/story-fni0cate-1227049569685">South Granville</a> enjoying an increase in median property price of around 17.5%, while reported median prices have shown virtually no annual change in <a href="/news">Auburn</a>.
Blunt policy tools are not the answer
It wasn’t so long ago that the average price of Perth’s houses surpassed Sydney’s on the back of a mining industry-led boom in the West. At the national level, these differences in property price growth are the result of shifting labour and economic factors, and to a lesser extent state-specific regulation.
Within a city, local amenities and employment, as well as the preferences of the potential home buyers are reflected in price growth variation.
This is a key point that needs to be remembered when blunt policy tools are debated. Measures to tighten home loan lending, increase borrowing costs or remove negative gearing affect the market as a whole, whether in Sydney, Perth, or a regional centre.
For policy to be effective it needs to firstly identify what it aims to achieve. Housing policy is a double-edged sword. Rapidly rising house prices can put home ownership beyond the reach of younger and lower-income Australians. But policy designed to lower house prices can put existing homeowners at risk of falling “underwater” - holding negative equity in their property. Again, it is typically lower-income households that are most at risk in this scenario.
Cooling the bubble talk
The growing pressure for a policy response to rising house prices is in part due to fears of a price bubble. The last time the Australian or Sydney house price index increased at more than 10% in a year was 2009. Unsurprisingly, there were calls then too that increased regulation was required to prevent a property bubble burst and housing crisis.
Since 1996, Sydney real estate prices have grown at an average annual rate of 7.26% though, with considerable variation in that time. A growth rate in a single year of 10% in any other asset market with these dynamics would not be cause for alarm. Yet housing has this perception of being low risk, pervading our cultural psyche. Something idiomatically described as “safe as houses” is viewed as guaranteed or risk-free.
When faced with the reality that property prices go up and down, sometimes fast and sometimes slow, we seek ways to explain the conflict with these cultural expectations. Assigning the label or “price bubble” shifts the responsibility for our own irrationalities back on the market.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/32366/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
Danika Wright is affiliated with Sirca, as a member of the Sirca-RP Data Advisory Board. She is a lecturer in Finance at the University of Sydney. 
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rational-talk-on-housing-prices-lost-in-a-bubble-32366">original article</a>.
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Rational talk on housing prices lost in a bubble

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Another 2,820 lots of land will be launched into Melbourne's west by Satterley Property Group as they open two new residential developments in one month.
Upper Point Cook is a 2,000-lot offering in Point Cook, while Habitat, on Davis Creek in Tarneit, will be providing the other 820 lots, which they're calling some of the cheapest housing in the state.
Habitat's house and land packages are expected to span from less than $300,000 to above $450,000.
Habitat spans 65 hectares, on the corner of Sayers Road and Davis Road, includes more than 150 lots fronting Davis Creek and 14 hectares of open space.
Upper Point Cook will be the first to launch, followed three weeks later by Habitat on 26 October.
Satterley Victoria general manager Jack Hoffman said that since announcing the two, interest has been strong, particularly from first home buyers.
"Upper Point Cook and Habitat on Davis Creek are two quality master-planned communities that combine premium housing options and affordability," said Hoffman.
"Upper Point Cook is one of the few remaining quality land parcels close to shops, public transport and with direct access to the Princes Highway."
Strong sales are expected on launch weekend, with completion of the project to welcome 5,000 new residents.
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Satterley Property Group launches two new developments in Melbourne’s west

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The Australian Institute of Architecture's inaugural People's Choice Awards will for the first time give the public the opportunity to choose the best house of the year.
The public can choose from the 13 homes shortlisted by the National Jury, with votes closing on October 29.
The short listed entries:
Bellevue Terrace Alterations + Additions – Philip Stejskal Architecture (WA)
Tamarama Semi-D – David Langston-Jones (NSW)
West End Tower – Owen and Vokes and Peters (Qld)
Griffith House – Popov Bass Architects (NSW)
Southern Outlet House – Philip M Dingemanse (Tas)
Strohmayr House – Troppo Architects (NT)
Highgate Hill House – Twofold Studio &amp; Cox Rayner Architects (Qld)
House at Hanging Rock – Kerstin Thompson Architects (Vic)
Hover House – Bower Architecture (Vic)
K House – Chenchow Little (NSW)
Lune de Sang – Stone House – CHROFI (NSW)
Oxlade Drive House – James Russell Architect (Qld)
South Yarra Warehouse – NMBW Architecture Studio (Vic) 
Property Observer has picked out five standout entries. Cast the vote for your favourite in our Property Observer poll.
<img src="/images/2014/10/3/1Res-AA_PhilipStejskalArchitecture_BellevueTerraceAlterations_BoWong.jpg" alt="">
Bellevue Terrace Alterations + Additions – Philip Stejskal Architecture (WA)
To see more of our picks, click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
<img src="/images/2014/10/3/2Res-New_PopovBassArchitects_GriffithHouse_SharrinRees-1.jpg" alt="">
 Griffith House – Popov Bass Architects (NSW)
To see more of our picks, click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
<img src="/images/2014/10/3/3Res-AA_TwoFoldsStudioCoxRaynerArchitects_HighgateHillHouse_ChristopherFrederickJones.jpg" alt="">
 Highgate Hill House – Twofold Studio &amp; Cox Rayner Architects (Qld)
To see more of our picks, click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<img src="/images/2014/10/3/4Res-New_KerstinThompsonArchitects_HouseatHangingRock_TrevorMein-1.jpg" alt="">
House at Hanging Rock – Kerstin Thompson Architects (Vic)
To see more of our picks, click below.
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<img src="/images/2014/10/3/5Res-New_BowerArchitecture_TheHoverHouse_ShannonMcGrath.jpg" alt="">
Hover House – Bower Architecture (Vic)
You can see the other shortlisted entries and vote at the <a href="https://wp.architecture.com.au/news-media/peoples-choice-award/?utm_source=aia&amp;utm_medium=banner&amp;utm_campaign=peoples%20choice%20award" target="_blank">People's Choice Awards website</a>.
{mijopolls 46}
 
 
 
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Cast your vote for Australia's best home of the year

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The definition of the first home owner in Australia is not what it once was.
In realestateVIEW.com.au's latest report, the First Home Market Report, a national survey was conducted investigating the goals and opinions of over 1,000 Australian first home buyers (44.6%), first home owners (31.2%) and non-buyers (24.1%). Who are Australia's first home buyers today?
<img src="/images/2014/10/2/First-Home-Buyers-Report-Infographic2.png" alt="">
 Petra Sprekos is the general manager of <a href="https://www.realestateview.com.au/" target="_blank">realestateview.com.au</a>.
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First Home Buyers: Want the real story?

Roseville is poised for a wave of new apartment development following the NSW Government's rezoning of land around Roseville Station under its Transport Oriented Development program.

The new planning controls have unlocked significant development potential within walking distance of the station, with a number of sites expected to be amalgamated and redeveloped in the coming years as developers seek to take advantage of the increased density allowances.

One of the more restrained developments in the precinct, and set among the first to be delivered having commenced well before the recent changes, is Hyecorp's Juliet. The boutique apartment project is already well under construction and remains on track to welcome residents by the end of the year, offering a markedly different proposition to many of the larger-scale developments now likely to emerge across the suburb.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278194]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/juliet-roseville-64-pacific-highway-roseville-nsw-2069">Juliet</a> will comprise just&nbsp;34 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments opposite Roseville Station. For Hyecorp, which has delivered projects across Sydney's Lower North Shore for more than three decades, Roseville presented a rare opportunity to address a growing gap in the market.

"<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/roseville-nsw-2069">Roseville</a> has long been one of the North Shore's most tightly held and desirable suburbs, offering a unique combination of village charm, established greenery, excellent transport connections, and proximity to some of Sydney's best schools and lifestyle amenities," Hyecorp said.

"We recognised a growing demand from local homeowners seeking to downsize without leaving the community they have built their lives around. The location presented a rare opportunity to create homes that cater specifically to that buyer profile."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278196]

The six-level development has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a> as a collection of residences that feel more like homes than apartments. The brief centred generous floorplans, abundant natural light, quality finishes, and strong connections to outdoor space.

PBD Architects drew inspiration from Roseville's established garden suburb character, creating a building that sits comfortably within its surroundings rather than dominating them. The architecture incorporates natural materials, soft forms, layered landscaping, expansive balconies, and generous setbacks to strengthen the connection between residents and the suburb's leafy environment.

"The focus was on designing spacious, house-like residences for discerning owner-occupiers and downsizers who wanted to remain on the North Shore without compromising on comfort, privacy, or design," PBD said.&nbsp;

"Every apartment was to feel considered, timeless, and highly functional."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278195]

Inside, residences feature engineered timber flooring, stone kitchen benchtops and splashbacks, integrated Fisher &amp; Paykel appliances, ducted air conditioning, and large outdoor entertaining areas designed to take advantage of district and treetop views.

Residents will also have access to a rooftop barbecue and lounge area, alongside practical amenities including parcel lockers, EV charging capability, bicycle storage, a dog wash bay, and a basement car wash facility.

The majority of purchasers so far have been local owner-occupiers from Roseville, Lindfield, Chatswood, Killara, and the broader Upper North Shore, many of whom are transitioning from larger family homes.

"Buyers are looking for spacious, house-like apartments that allow them to downsize without feeling like they are sacrificing comfort or functionality," Hyecorp noted.

"They value large kitchens, generous living areas, ample storage, quality finishes, secure parking, lift access, and low-maintenance living."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7395 project_image_fid=278204]

Juliet sits directly opposite Roseville Train Station and within walking distance of Roseville Village, while Chatswood's retail and dining precinct is only minutes away. The development is also surrounded by some of Sydney's most established schools, including Roseville College, Ravenswood, Pymble Ladies' College, and Knox Grammar, as well as nearby parklands and golf courses.

Juliet is currently more than 75 per cent sold ahead of its anticipated completion in late 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=7395]

Joel Robinson

Juliet to sit quietly amid Roseville apartment boom

Sherpa Property Group has unveiled the third instalment of its Flourish series, securing full approval for the two-tower, $500 million Flourish Soleira development in Palm Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> will rise from a prominent site in the commercial heart of Palm Beach, the long-time home of Cash Converters and a range of local retailers.

The project will introduce a new retail and dining precinct at ground level, beneath 286 apartments.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370959]

“We’re very committed to not only providing affordable residential offerings that are much needed in Palm Beach, but also delivering a vibrant new commercial heart that complements the extraordinary growth of the southern Gold Coast,” Sherpa Property Group founder Christie Leet said.

The development will sit under Sherpa's Flourish brand, which is aimed at providing a pathway into the beachside suburb for locals, first-home buyers and downsizers. In a move designed to assist first-home buyers entering the market, Sherpa has reserved all one and two-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments exclusively for eligible first-home buyers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370964]

“Our vision through Flourish is to create a vibrant retail and lifestyle focal point within the Palm Beach centre zone, delivering thriving communities underpinned by lifestyle-rich locations,” Leet said.

“So far, Flourish has been an incredible success, and we hope to carry this momentum as we progress the next two Flourish projects in Palm Beach.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=371430]

Located across 1150-1164 Gold Coast Highway and 3 Sixth Avenue, the development will comprise two towers. The northern tower will deliver 154 apartments, while the southern tower will add a further 132 residences, helping address ongoing demand for new apartments in the tightly held coastal suburb.

Flourish Soleira will also feature the most extensive rooftop amenity offering ever delivered in Palm Beach.

The two towers will be connected by a skybridge, with residents gaining access to a rooftop recreation deck featuring a full-width swimming pool, hot and cold plunge pools, wellness spaces, a gymnasium, private dining facilities, massage treatment rooms, barbecue areas, a basketball court, golf simulator, indoor and outdoor dining spaces, sun lounges and extensive landscaping.

LPS Group is expected to start construction later this year.

Sherpa is already well advanced on construction of its debut Flourish project, Flourish Amargo, located just around the corner from Soleira. Meanwhile, Flourish Oasis, positioned opposite Amargo, recently commenced construction and has nearly sold out its collection of 47 apartments.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa unveils $500m mixed-use Palm Beach precinct, Flourish Soleira

Are mortgage holders set to get a reprieve from the RBA in 2026?

Big Four bank NAB believes so. They are now expecting the next move from the RBA to be a cut, rather than a hike, which they had pencilled in for August. They are unsure of the timing of the cut however, they note in their latest&nbsp;NAB Economics RBA Watch.

NAB Chief Economist, Dr Sally Auld, said recent data suggests the economy has lost momentum and the outlook for rates has shifted, noting that the broader economic backdrop has changed since earlier in the year.

“The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down, but the timing is uncertain," Dr Auld said.

"In February, growth was above trend, the economy was operating above capacity and there was uncertainty over the restrictiveness of rates. None of these conditions exist today,” she outlined.

Dr Auld said recent data pointed to softer momentum across the economy while acknowledging that at the same time, uncertainty remains a key feature of the outlook.

“Both Q1 GDP data and the NAB business survey suggest momentum in the economy has slowed, meaning that growth has likely peaked for the cycle. That said, we are cognisant there is still considerable uncertainty around the outlook, both with respect to activity and inflation.”

Dr Auld said inflation risks and labour market outcomes would be important to watch.

“On the prices side, we are still forecasting above target core inflation through to mid-2027. Margins will compress and weaker labour market outcomes are a risk.”

She said tighter financial conditions are expected to weigh on housing and activity.

“Tighter financial conditions will be reflected in a slowing in house price growth and housing credit growth. In summary, we have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing.”

Mortgage relief? NAB forecasts RBA rate cut, not hike, after softer economic conditions

A local downsizer has splashed $6.5 million on a penthouse in Perifa's Alex &amp; Willow development in Crows Nest. 
&nbsp; 
The purchaser sold their long-held family home in the area before embarking on a six-month search for the right apartment. After inspecting a range of options across the Lower North Shore, the buyer returned to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/alex-willow-crows-nest-82-90-alexander-street-crows-nest-nsw-2065">Alex &amp; Willow</a>. 
&nbsp; 
The buyer profile reflects the project’s broader purchaser mix. <a>Alex &amp; Willow</a> has attracted predominantly local downsizers looking to transition from larger homes without compromising on space or quality, alongside a smaller cohort of upsizers and investors drawn to the project’s location and design credentials. 
&nbsp; 
The milestone sale comes as the project, developed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/perifa">Perifa</a>&nbsp;and delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/versatile-made-construction">Versatile Construction</a>, both part of Versatile Group, reaches 60 per cent sold.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=371325] 
&nbsp; 
Eddie Mansour, Managing Partner of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/ray-white-projects">Ray White Projects</a>, said the result demonstrates not only a headline price but also depth of demand. 
&nbsp; 
“This is an exceptional outcome and a clear reflection of sustained buyer demand for premium, well-located downsizer product,” Mansour said.

“We’re seeing a consistent pattern of local homeowners selling family residences and reinvesting into high-quality apartments that allow them to remain within their community. Alex &amp; Willow has resonated strongly with this group because it offers genuine scale, thoughtful design and immediate proximity to the village.” 
&nbsp; 
The sale reflects a broader and consistent trend of local downsizers actively seeking high-quality, low-maintenance residences close to established village centres. Agents report that demand for this product type has remained resilient, particularly where developments offer a rare combination of scale, design quality and walkable amenity. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Fabrizio Perilli, Managing Director of Perifa and Versatile Group, said the sale marks a defining moment for the project. 
&nbsp; 
“The penthouse sale is a strong endorsement of the quality we have delivered, alongside our partners, and the clear demand from local downsizers for premium, boutique residences in this location,” Perilli said.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
“Most importantly, we’re proud to see the Alex &amp; Willow community beginning to take shape. As we move closer to completion, we’re looking forward to welcoming residents and seeing the project come to life.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6680 project_image_fid=338516] 
&nbsp; 
Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/nettletontribe">Nettleton Tribe</a> with interiors by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>, Alex &amp; Willow is a boutique collection of generously sized two- and three-bedroom residences in the heart of Crows Nest village.&nbsp;

Completion is slated for early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6680]

Alex & Willow, Crows Nest penthouse sells off the plan for $6.5 million

Fresh from launching the first stage of its Wollongong precinct, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/keira-place-wollongong-120-122-smith-street-wollongong-nsw-2500">Keira Place</a>, builder-developer Urban Property Group has unveiled plans for the next phase of the masterplanned community.

Now on public exhibition through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority pathway is a State Significant Development Application for a further 657 homes on the prominent gateway site opposite Beaton Park.

The proposal comprises three buildings, including two build-to-sell towers rising 25 and 30 storeys, delivering 391 apartments, alongside a 12-storey co-living building with 266 residences, making it one of the largest co-living proposals currently planned in regional New South Wales.

Of the apartments proposed in the build-to-sell towers, the majority, 310, are two-bedroom dwellings. The balance comprises 44 one-bedroom apartments and 37 three-bedroom residences. Apartment sizes range from around 50 sqm for one-bedroom homes to approximately 90 sqm for three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="19347059-1612-41a0-9c74-b86a657237f8" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%2010.02.18%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sWXnaCcA.cIC6N8YT1dg5pJ2e1V3Z6z7" />

The submission says the proposal has evolved significantly from its original Housing Delivery Authority application following extensive consultation with the State Design Review Panel and Wollongong City Council.

The final scheme has been designed to align with the emerging vision for the Flinders Street Precinct, an area identified by Council as a future high-density mixed-use neighbourhood capable of accommodating substantial housing growth close to transport, employment and community infrastructure.

According to the design report prepared by COX Architecture, the development aims to "deliver a built outcome consistent with the future character of the Wollongong CBD while responding to the site's unique constraints and opportunities."

"Our vision for the next phase of the site evolution in Wollongong is grounded in three design pillars that guide the design response: place, natural environment and celebration," COX said.

"Inspired by its surroundings and grounded in the stories of place on Wodi Wodi Country, the design proposal acknowledges the established character of its setting while creating a unique and timeless identity that sits harmoniously within it.

"The design proposal responds to its specific site conditions, acknowledging the vegetation, climate, wind conditions and solar access of the site."

The architecture responds directly to the site's position between Wollongong's urban core and its natural landscape setting.

COX identified views towards Mount Keira and the Illawarra Escarpment as defining features of the site, while the upper levels of the towers will also capture expansive views across the city and out to the Pacific Ocean.

The design team has positioned the tallest buildings closer to the rail corridor, where overshadowing impacts can be better managed while establishing a landmark built form on the northern approach into the city.

<img alt="Smith St" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="79580d5b-500c-4ebf-9629-797146a4a694" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-06-10%20at%209.51.59%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=WbTB1EKSG.KDfsfz0F3wp1QVa2oCMGR5" />

Urban Property Group secured the 11,000 sqm Smith Street site in 2022 and has since progressed plans for the broader Keira Place precinct.

Construction recently commenced on the first stage of Keira Place, which will deliver 150 apartments across two residential buildings, including 27 affordable housing apartments and 18 specialist disability accommodation dwellings, alongside activated ground-floor retail and commercial space.

Urban Co-CEO Patrick Elias said the commencement of construction marked a significant milestone for Wollongong and reflected the developer's long-term commitment to regional cities.

"Today's groundbreaking is about turning approvals into homes and moving quickly to deliver much-needed housing in Wollongong's city centre," Elias said.

"Keira Place will provide a diverse mix of homes close to jobs, transport and services, while setting a high benchmark for quality, durability and consumer protection."

Read more:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/groundbreaking-marks-start-of-construction-at-keira-place-in-wollongong-cbd">Groundbreaking marks start of construction at Keira Place in Wollongong CBD</a>

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Jessie Richardson

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