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On the 27th of July, the New South Wales government announced eligible first home buyers could access stamp duty exemptions on new home purchases worth up to $800,000.
New home builds will also see stamp duty discounts available for purchases between $800,000 and $1 million, where the discount reduces with a higher purchasing price. The policy is a temporary, 12-month extension of existing stamp duty concessions from the 1st of August 2020.
Based on housing market trends that emerged from the initial introduction of stamp duty discounts and other first home buyer incentives, there a few trends we may expect to emerge from the new round of stamp duty discounts.
First home buyer demand will increase
Previous research suggests that first home buyer grants and incentives have had a ‘vacuum’ effect, where first home buyer incentives are followed by large, but temporary, spikes in first home buyer activity. This suggests the incentives bring forward purchases that may have happened anyway. The fact that the new stamp duty discounts on offer will only be available for 12 months is likely to exacerbate this effect.
The increase in first home buyer participation over a limited time window may actually lead to an increase in values up to the cut off values for stamp duty concessions. This is because buyer competition could be increased in this segment while added incentives are on offer. Furthermore, the reduced transaction costs associated with stamp duty exemptions mean borrowers have higher purchasing capacity, which may just be added onto the purchase price while first home buyer demand is elevated.
One important mitigating factor is that the demand shock created by COVID-19 may not be enough to increase first home buyer demand.
However, at the very least, first home buyer participation would be higher than it otherwise would have been as a result of the stamp duty discount.
Price ‘clustering’ could move up to the $800,000 mark
Research of sales volumes by price suggests that sales volumes tend to ‘cluster’ just under the cut-off point for complete stamp duty exemptions, so that first home buyers can avoid paying the tax.
CoreLogic sales volume data across NSW shows that there is a bunching of sales between the $640,000 and $650,000 price point between July 2017 and June 2020.
$650,000 was the cut off point for stamp duty exemption for first home buyers in this period. This is demonstrated in the charts on the following page, which show the volume of sales across NSW by value range for the two years before and after the introduction of stamp duty discounts for sales up to $650,000.
While the $650,000 price point seemed to be an anchoring point for buyers before the introduction of stamp duty exemptions, the difference in sales volumes is exacerbated after exemptions are introduced.
The number of sales at $640-650,000 was 32% higher than the band below, and is 49% higher than sales in the value band above. This is a greater divergence than was observed between these value bands in the two years before the introduction of stamp duty exemptions.
As the stamp duty exemption increases to $800,000, this could see a broader range of properties increase in value up to this level. This price inflation would be skewed toward new home builds where the discounts apply.
The incentive to avoid tax could increase turnover now, but dampen it later
An interesting feature of the stamp duty discounts for first home buyers is that they extend to property values worth up to $1 million. This is likely to be beyond the typical first home buyer purchase point across NSW.
Deriving the average borrowing amount by first home buyers from ABS housing finance data suggests that a typical first home buyer purchase price averaged closer to $625,000 between July 2019 and May 2020.
By raising the threshold to $1 million, there is more diversity in the housing stock that first home buyers can access with stamp duty discounts, particularly across Sydney where property values are higher than in other capital cities.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/30/CL%20stamp%20duty%20concessions.JPG" alt="">
But by incentivising first home buyers into a more expensive, and presumably larger home earlier in life, first home buyers may stay put for longer, in order to avoid paying stamp duty on upsizing down the line. This could extend hold periods, thus potentially reducing the amount of turnover that takes place in future.
Overall, the expected impact of this temporary discount in stamp duty should bring forward the purchase of property among first home buyers, and skew more first home buyers to new property. This is good news for those in the construction industry, and, considering the broad range of industry sectors involved in residential construction, there should be a positive flow through to economic activity.
However, considering the potential for higher housing prices, stamp duty exemptions may be limited in helping first home buyers access cheaper housing. 
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The impact of NSW stamp duty discounts: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
An emerging narrative around regional dwelling markets is that they may see increased demand as a result of COVID-19.
This is thought to be driven by the way the pandemic has forcibly introduced remote work for knowledge-based or clerical workers. As employers and employees adapt to remote working conditions, physical proximity to a workplace may become a less important factor in home purchases.
In the June 2020 quarter, about 3 months into the engineered economic slowdown, CoreLogic data showed regional centres have seen higher capital growth than the capital city regions.
The charts below show the rolling quarterly growth of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, alongside quarterly growth of nearby major regional centres.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/7/16/Owen%201.JPG" target="_blank">Click to enlarge:</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/16/Owen%201.JPG" alt="">
This more positive outcome is short term, and is more likely tied to cyclical patterns than changes in demographic trends, which are typically a gradual phenomenon. The charts demonstrate that even though regional centres have not seen price falls in the June quarter, growth rates have seen a slowdown in momentum.
Regional growth rates peaked around late 2019, and could nudge into negative territory later this year without significant improvement to economic conditions or a demonstrated shift in demand side factors like population growth.
Illawarra and Newcastle, and Geelong and Ballarat, also saw a relatively weak upswing compared with the Sydney and Melbourne markets over the second half of 2019.
The relative stability of growth rates mean that these regional centres may not see as deep a downswing in the coming months.
COVID-19 and long term demographic trends
Regional Australia is considered appealing for relatively low levels of density, less congestion, and typically lower price points for property. The median dwelling value for combined regional areas of Australia was $394,570 at June 2020, 38.5% lower than the combined capital city median of $641,671.
One way to assess whether COVID-19 could exacerbate a tree-change or sea-change trend, is to examine population movements before the onset of the pandemic.
ABS internal migration data at the SA4 level sheds some light on this. Areas with the highest levels of net internal migration over 2018-19 (where more people moved to an area from another part of Australia than departed it) are shown below. These include the Capital Region of regional NSW, the Sunshine Coast, Melbourne – West, the Gold Coast and Ipswich.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/16/Owen%202.JPG" alt="">
From these examples, there was already a trend of movement from more suburban or metropolitan areas to regional areas. But two of the highest levels of net internal migration are actually still within capital city bounds. Melbourne – West and Ipswich are technically in greater capital city regions, but see a large number of migrants from the inner city.
This may reflect both availability of developable land transitioning to large greenfield housing estates as well as cohorts such as inner-city renters and first home buyers making the transition to buy in more affordable areas that are still commutable to the CBD.
That is an important trend to consider, because it is a scenario where past migration may have been driven by affordability instead of preference for a regional lifestyle.
If that is the case, a mitigating factor to the draw of regional areas during COVID-19, is that dwellings closer to the city are also becoming cheaper, which may slow migration to the city fringe. But affordability is not the only drawcard of regional Australia. Parts of regional Australia may offer lower levels of population density, which is arguably desirable in the wake of a pandemic.
There have also been recent examples of people departing from higher socio-economic areas to parts of regional Australia.
Over 2018-19, an estimated 1,453 residents form the Sydney - Eastern Suburbs region departed for areas such as the Central Coast, Richmond-Tweed and the Gold Coast.
The normalisation of remote work amid COVID-19 is more likely to bolster regional migration than slow it. But in the wake of the pandemic, the return to an office environment may still be desirable for some employees and employers.
Furthermore, it is important to note that the broad-based impact to housing demand from the pandemic could see prices fall in regional centres over the second half of 2020.
Price falls are unlikely to be as sharp as what will be observed in capital city markets, where more expensive, capital city markets have historically shown more volatility than regional Australia.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic 
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Can regional housing markets benefit from COVID-19? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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Thursday’s lending indicator data from the ABS shows the value of new finance commitments for the purchase of dwellings fell by a record 11.6% over May 2020.
This is the largest single monthly drop in the 18 year series.
In seasonally adjusted terms, it represents a $2.2 billion monthly fall in the value of housing finance, and is $2.0 billion below the decade average level of lending.
But CoreLogic data suggests that the June results could show a partial recovery.
Can CoreLogic sales data tell us what will happen to the housing finance data?
The chart below shows the monthly value of new finance for housing from the ABS, against the number of property transactions estimated by CoreLogic.
The two metrics have moved quite closely together historically. This suggests that when more money is lent for the purpose of buying property, we will typically also see a rise in the number of transactions.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/13/CL%20July%2013.JPG" alt="">
While this is intuitive, there is something curious about the relationship. In some instances, shifts in the direction of sales volume estimates produced by CoreLogic are a month ahead of changes in the direction of new housing finance. The correlation coefficient between the two series is slightly strengthened when the sales volumes are lagged by one month.
The lagging of finance data has been particularly evident in the dramatic disruption that has played out amid COVID-19. CoreLogic sales volumes started rebounding over May, while housing finance saw a record decline.
This could be because of the way sales volumes and finance commitments are dated. CoreLogic sales volumes generally date sales from the sale’s contract date. But housing finance commitments, according to the ABS, are only counted when the following three criteria are met: 
1. A home loan application has been approved; 
2. a loan contract or letter of offer has been issued to a borrower; and 
3. the borrower has accepted the offer.
This means that a housing finance commitment could occur in the month after property is purchased. The lag between the two events could be days, or weeks depending on multiple factors, including the time it takes for a property to be valued, or the time the borrower spends reviewing the loan contract before accepting it.
More recently, anecdotal evidence suggests an additional lag in the housing finance data could be caused by COVID-19 related factors. These include banking staff and processes adjusting to remote working conditions, processing additional forbearance provisions, and a surge in refinancing applications.
Understanding this detail of the data could help us understand whether housing finance numbers will have fallen further in June, or if they would start to recover. Based on the fact that CoreLogic sales estimates rebounded 29.5% over June, housing finance values may actually have bottomed out in May. Other indicators suggest transaction activity has been steadily recovering.
One of these is the change in volume of valuations ordered for property purchases through CoreLogic platforms. Underlying data shows an 11.5% increase in valuations for the purchase of property between May and June. The Early Market Indicators report has continued to show an uplift through July, rising 11.1% in the week ending July 9th.
The number of advertised listings provides another signal for higher sales. While the number of new capital city listings has increased by more than 40% since early May, while the total listings count has reduced by close to 3% over the same period. This implies a new listings to sales ratio of around 1.3. In other words, more homes are being sold than what is being added to the market.
Despite signs of rising transaction activity and finance volumes recently, significant headwinds lie ahead for sales activity. With the re-introduction of the stage 3 lockdown across Melbourne, the impact on sales volumes is two-fold. There is the physical limitation on selling homes that come with social distancing, as well as a more general fall in consumer confidence.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index has declined in the past two weeks of measurement. Declines in consumer sentiment are associated with falls in property tractions. This means that while finance volumes could bottom out in May for the 2019-20 financial year, the potential for another significant fall exists while social distancing policies are required.
By Eliza Owen, Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic 
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What CoreLogic data tells us about the record fall in housing finance: Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The July CoreLogic index results show the Melbourne property market is the worst capital city performer since the onset of COVID-19. June marked the third consecutive month of value falls across the city. This sees values down -2.3% from the previous quarter, when the market hit a record high. 
The results may be surprising, particularly when considering that the Sydney growth rate, which often moves quite closely with Melbourne property, was less than half this rate in the same period (at -0.8%). Several factors may explain why Melbourne in particular has experienced a more rapid decline.
Melbourne has sometimes ‘led’ cycles, and has often been more volatile
Data suggests that the Melbourne market has experienced a turn in its market before others. This was evident in the most recent upswing, where Sydney and Melbourne saw peak growth rates around November 2019, while other capital cities continued to see a more moderate but accelerating growth rate.
A longer-term view suggests it is not uncommon for Melbourne to outpace capital growth in Sydney, or to see deeper rates of decline.
The divergence is particularly evident through the 2010-2012 downturn, following a substantial over-performance from Melbourne during the post-GFC stimulus fuelled growth phase.
The most recent upswing before COVID-19 also saw Melbourne growth rates peak higher than in Sydney. The Melbourne quarterly growth rate peaked at 6.4%, compared with 6.2% across Sydney.
Cyclically then, it is not unreasonable to see Melbourne values slip at a greater rate than other capital cities.
Research also suggests that property markets where incomes are higher, households are more indebted and investor activity is higher can also be more sensitive to changes in economic conditions. This has been consistently evident in the upper quartile of values across the Melbourne market, which had the strongest value increases amid the last upswing, and are currently showing the largest falls.
High levels of investment are also evident in the Melbourne market, which may be contributing to volatility, though this is present in Sydney too.
ABS finance data shows investor lending has comprised an average 32.3% of total mortgage lending across Victoria for the past 5 years.
This is higher than most other states and territories.
Given that Melbourne has also experienced higher growth rates before the onset of COVID, and may be approaching a trough more quickly, Melbourne may not be the ‘worst performer’ over the entire cycle, but just based on a snapshot view of the past couple of months.
However, there are some key structural factors creating added downward pressure on Melbourne property prices.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Why is Melbourne property leading the downswing? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The announcement of the HomeBuilder stimulus from the federal government in early June has been met with a mixture of excitement and criticism.
The scheme grants $25,000 dollars for new home builds and renovations where:
<ul>
<li>The recipient is an owner occupier;</li>
<li>The recipient earns no more than $125,000 per annum as a single applicant or $200,000 for a couple;  </li>
<li>The contract is signed between June 4 and December 31; and</li>
<li>Construction commences within 3 months of the contract date</li>
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For renovations, the existing property value must be no more than $1.5 million, and the renovation must be worth between $150,000 and $750,000. For new builds, the house and land value must not exceed $750,000.
While potential home owners are likely to be keen to take advantage of the scheme, many have noted that the policy largely creates stimulus for those that were planning to build and renovate anyway.
So instead of creating additional demand for construction work, it may just bring construction forward. This side-effect from housing stimulus has actually been seen before – and it has a name: a vacuum effect.
A vacuum effect describes housing stimulus bringing forward a planned decision to purchase property. It reflects a surge in buyer activity soon after housing grants are made available, and a significant drop in activity thereafter.
The implication is that rather than stimulating sustained, new demand, stimulus is simply bringing forward activity to a certain date, where it would likely have occurred over time anyway.
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The term was used by researchers from the City Futures Research Centre, in a publication analysing the impact of past housing stimulus on dwelling markets and first home buyer activity.
The phenomenon is prominent around the first home owner grant in 2000. 
This was a $7,000 grant, designed to soften the blow for first home buyers around an introduction of the GST.
The ‘boost’ to the first home owner grant, which was a temporary, additional $7-14,000 grant in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, showed a similar outcome.
The image on page 1 shows the number of first home buyer loans secured each month off the back of the introduction of these policies from the retired ABS series 5609.
Despite the first home owner grant being in place since 2000, its uptake is concentrated up to November 2001. Following this, first home buyer participation fell away between 2002 and 2004. It is also evident around the first home owner grant ‘boost’, where the number of loans secured began to fall away before the program ended.
However in both of these instances, It is worth noting that any ‘vacuum’ effect here was likely compounded by a strong surge in dwelling values, which is when first home buyer participation is typically stunted due to affordability constraints. 
The implication for the HomeBuilder scheme is that rather than creating additional demand for property purchases and renovations, the scheme would just bring forward works that were already planned.
This is amplified by the timeframes of the HomeBuilder scheme. The kind of planning and financing that needs to be organised for a six-figure renovation means that it would largely be taken up by those who have already started the process.
Similarly for home owners, and first home buyers in particular, those looking to commit to a property purchase within the next 6 months would already have been saving a deposit and primed to buy.
However, where this policy may create additional construction lies in the fact that it is pivoting decision making from established property to new housing, likely to be skewed towards house and land projects. This is opposed to the first home owner boost (FHOB) in 2008. Even though the grant provided additional incentive for newly built property, 85% of those temporary grants were awarded for established purchases.
The HomeBuilder package may be limited in its ability to deliver new construction work, because it relies on decisions to purchase and renovate property in a highly uncertain economic climate. This is one of the reasons consensus is mounting around social housing being a more efficient use of government expenditure on housing, because it guarantees the upgrade and building of homes through direct expenditure.
Eliza Owen is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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The ‘vacuum’ effect and its implications for the HomeBuilder Scheme: Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Amid COVID-19, much attention has been given to weaker rental market conditions. But as with buying and selling property, market conditions vary substantially among regions. 
New data estimates from CoreLogic, calculating the portion of rental stock advertised, shows further variation in the performance of rental markets across different capital cities.  The percentage of rental housing advertised rose over the month of May in Sydney and Melbourne, while declining across the rest of the capital city regions. 4.5% of the total rental stock across Sydney was advertised over May, up from 4.3% in April. The portion of stock advertised across Melbourne saw an even larger jump, from 3.2% of listings advertised in April, to 3.6% of properties over May. While 3.6% may sound small, it represents a total rent listing uplift of more than 3,000 across Melbourne, up to about 27,000 properties for rent over the month. This corresponds to a rise in vacancies, and falling rental prices, particularly in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne.  How is rental stock on market measured?  The calculation of rental stock on market is derived by dividing total rental listings in a month by the estimated rental stock in an area.  An increase in the portion of stock on market suggests higher vacancies and a looser rental market, which would coincide with falling rent prices. However, it could also be a function of a change in the ‘denominator’ – ie, the size of the rental market is reduced while listings are steady.  CoreLogic has a ‘static’ estimate of the portion of properties that are rented. To get a dynamic indication of rental stock, the portion of dwellings estimated to be rentals was interpolated between the rental tenure reported at the 2016 census, and the latest CoreLogic imputation of the portion of rental stock. So it assumes there is a linear movement in the portion of rental properties from 2016 to 2020. A summary of the rental stock on market is presented below. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/22/RENTAL%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/22/RENTAL%201.jpg" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/22/RENTAL%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/22/RENTAL%202.jpg" alt=""> 
Why is stock piling up in Sydney and Melbourne and not elsewhere?  One of the big drivers of demand for rental accommodation is overseas migration. Most people that come to Australia from overseas, whether they are a skilled migrant, a temporary visa visitor or a refugee, will rent when they first come to Australia. ABS data on migration suggests that Sydney and Melbourne received over 70,000 net overseas migrants over 2018-19, which is far higher than the other capital cities. This may be why an increasing amount of properties across the cities are sitting vacant.  Another factor contributing to less rental demand could relate to the predominance of Sydney and Melbourne for foreign student numbers. With foreign student numbers falling by close to 100% compared with a year ago, along with domestic students largely studying from home, rental demand from tertiary students has been depleted.  New South Wales and Victoria have also seen, by far, the largest number of investors relative to other states.  According to ABS housing finance data, almost two thirds (65%) of investment loans over the past ten months were in Australia’s two largest states.  Investor activity contributes to rental supply. When paired with the large number of units that have been built over the past few years, many of which are rentals, and it’s clear that rental supply has increased more in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the other cities.   Higher supply levels against a backdrop of weaker demand is a recipe for lower rents. The steady level of advertised stock across the ACT came amid very little change to advertised stock levels and total rental stock levels. Declines in the rate of advertised rental stock in May across other cities were all due to a decline in the total listings count over the month.  In some areas, this could be a continuation of steady market conditions. The advertised stock levels suggest that rental markets have been gradually tightening in the lead up to COVID-19. 
Perth in particular saw the portion of advertised stock decline over 200 basis points in the year to May, as both total rent listings, and the number of total rental properties declined. It may be the case that investors withdrawing from the market, where the property was sitting vacant for a long time, has helped to tighten rental conditions.  
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research for Australia at CoreLogic  
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Rental stock on market data shows Sydney and Melbourne markets loosen over May: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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The HomeBuilder scheme announced in early June is intended to boost activity in the construction sector.
Dwelling construction is expected to see a lagged decline in activity off the back of COVID-19, as the recently recovering trend in dwelling approvals began to slip in April, led by a decline in unit approvals.
However, the $25,000 incentive for building a new home, or renovating an established one, comes with a set of extensive eligibility criteria.
Part of the eligibility for the renovation component of the scheme is that properties must be owner-occupied, and not exceed more than $1.5 million in value.
So where are the most owner-occupied properties under $1.5 million? 
Using CoreLogic’s extensive property database, we have put together a count of properties by region. The count of properties are those that we estimate are owner-occupied, and have a high confidence valuation of less than $1.5 million.
The top and bottom 10 regions by number of these properties is listed below.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/6/9/PP%20CL%20JUNE%2011.JPG" alt="">
The list also includes the median dwelling value for all properties across the region of measurement (not just the owner-occupied properties valued below 1.5 million), and a rough estimate of the portion of all family households that are below the $200,000 income limit for the HomeBuilder scheme.
These additional data points are not factored into the count of properties generated, but provide some context around typical market values and household income.
What to make of the data
The data suggests that the highest number of owner-occupied properties is located in the Melbourne - South East region, which spans from Mount Waverly out to Bunyip. In fact, there are four Melbourne regions that have over 100,000 owner-occupied properties estimated to be valued under $1.5 million.
These regions represent the fringe of the metropolitan area, and include some relatively low income areas compared to the inner-city regions of Melbourne.
The Perth - North West region has the second highest volume of properties. The Perth - North West region spans from part of Glendalough, up to the Yeal Nature Reserve in the north. The ‘Bottom 10’ list of regions reflects one of two characteristics.
For Sydney’s Northern Beaches and Eastern Suburbs, many properties surpass the $1.5 million property value cap to qualify for a renovation grant. For parts of outback and regional Australia, there is just a low population of dwellings.
Even where dwellings fall well below the $1.5 million threshold for a renovation grant, many of these owner occupiers will not take up the homebuilder incentive for renovations.
In fact, CoreLogic estimates there are about 4.4 million owner-occupied properties across Australia with a high confidence valuation below $1.5 million, but the federal government estimates the scheme may only support about 7,000 renovations.
While part of this is the income cap put on the scheme, it is also due to the high value of renovations that is set in the eligibility criteria. The renovations qualifying for the HomeBuilder Scheme must be worth between $150,000 and $750,000.
For areas where dwelling prices and incomes are relatively low, this may lead to owners over-capitalising on renovations, where they cannot recoup the cost of upgrades to the property.
ELIZA OWEN is CoreLogic's <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/early-market-indicators-show-first-signs-housing-market-slowdown?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=20200420_propertypulse" target="_blank">head of research</a>
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HomeBuilder, where are the most owneroccupied dwellings below $1.5 million? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
COVID-19 has brought about downside risks for the economy and housing market.
A 0.3% decline in March GDP confirmed a technical recession is underway in Australia, total wages paid fell 5.4% between mid-March and early May, and Australian dwelling market values saw the first month-on-month decline since June 2019. But one surprising sign of stabilising emerged in May.
Home sales have risen, with home owners testing the market, and new listings are rising. In fact, buyer demand is outweighing the volume of new listings.
 Strong absorption of new listings over May
This absorption can be observed across new and total listings data.
CoreLogic counts an advertised property as a ‘new’ listing if it has not previously been seen on the market in the past 72 days.
Total listings are the sum of new and re-listed stock for sale on the market. The count of new and total listings are typically reported in rolling 28-day periods.
In the 28-days to 31st of May, new listings rose 22.4% on the previous period, but total listings fell -2.9%. This means that even as more new stock came onto the market, buyer activity offset the additional stock.
This is an especially important trend to follow at the moment. As Australians face record high levels of housing debt, job and income losses could lead to a rise in urgent or distressed sales. The latest financial stability review outlined that for each percentage point rise in unemployment, there has typically been an 80 basis point rise in the rate of mortgage arrears.
If a large volume of distressed properties are listed simultaneously, this could put downward pressure on property values and make it harder to recoup equity from distressed sales.
This is largely why banks have offered ‘repayment holidays’ on mortgage repayments. APRA data suggests 60% of bank loans and advances are in housing, so a decline in property values affects bank profits and capital.
Another way to assess the uptake of new listings is to consider the ratio of sales to new listings. This measure is found by dividing sales volumes by the number of new listings, and has been used as a leading indicator of property price movements.
The ratio increased from 1.1 in April to 1.3 over May, coinciding with an estimated increase in sales volumes of 20.4% across the combined capital cities over the month. This is the highest sales to new listing ratio in at least 10 years, though sales and listings volumes are still at very low levels.
ELIZA OWEN is CoreLogic's <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/early-market-indicators-show-first-signs-housing-market-slowdown?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=20200420_propertypulse" target="_blank">head of research</a>
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Buyers are surprisingly responsive to rise in May listings: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
COVID-19 has brought about downside risks for the economy and housing market.
A 0.3% decline in March GDP confirmed a technical recession is underway in Australia, total wages paid fell 5.4% between mid-March and early May, and Australian dwelling market values saw the first month-on-month decline since June 2019. But one surprising sign of stabilising emerged in May.
Home sales have risen, with home owners testing the market, and new listings are rising.
In fact, buyer demand is outweighing the volume of new listings.
Where is demand coming from
Where is demand coming from? With the economy severely impacted by COVID-19, it is surprising to see such a strong rebound in transaction activity. But there are a few factors that can explain these numbers. The first is that the 20.4% jump in sales volumes in May is off a low base.
Over April, the number of transactions across the combined capital cities market was estimated to be just 16,115. That is the lowest monthly sales volume since 1991 excluding January results.
It is also pales in comparison to the decade average of 24,700 sales per month across these markets. Although a 20.4% uplift is significant, it still only brings sales volumes to an estimated 19,400 over May.
The second is a rise in consumer confidence. The ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index has risen consecutively for the past 9 weeks.
At the week ending 31st of May, the index is 50.5% higher than when it bottomed out in late March.
In fact, the index is now just 9% lower than when Australia confirmed its first case of coronavirus in January. The easing of social distancing policies and low COVID-19 case numbers in Australia mean people may be feeling more confident about the future of the Australian economy, their personal finances, and property purchases.
Finally, the kind of workers most impacted by COVID-19 are those that are less likely to have mortgage debt. Between the 14th of March and 2nd of May, 27.1% of payroll jobs have been lost across accommodation and food services, and 19.0% of jobs have been lost across arts and recreation. In a previous blog, we noted that this would disproportionately affect renters rather than owner occupiers.
Data from the ABS and HILDA suggests the share of households renting that are in food and accommodation services, and are in a more precarious financial situation, is around 40%. This suggests that for now, conditions have been relatively stable in the housing market because those most impacted by the economic slowdown of COVID-19 may be less likely to have a mortgage obligation.
With stability emerging in the property transaction space, it is evident that additional housing stimulus is less urgent among those that can already afford property, and is another case for addressing housing costs for low income earners.
ELIZA OWEN is CoreLogic's <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/early-market-indicators-show-first-signs-housing-market-slowdown?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=20200420_propertypulse" target="_blank">head of research</a>
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Buyer demand outweighing new May listings: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The start of the Perth dwelling market recovery comes at an unfortunate time. In early 2020, the Perth dwelling market had four consecutive months of dwelling value increases, which is the longest stretch of capital growth since 2014.
The Perth dwelling market has a long road to recovery. By the end of April, the house market in Perth was -19.1% below its peak value at June 2014. Unit values have taken a larger hit, down -26.9% below the record high at July 2013.
Prior to COVID-19, most indicators for Western Australia were moving into an upswing. Unemployment had fallen from 6.9% to 5.2%, jobs growth was trending higher, population growth had bounced back to the highest level since 2014, housing supply was contained, and state final demand crept above the decade average.
But instead of momentum continuing from the trend seen at the start of the year, the onset of COVID-19 places it at the cusp of another downswing.
According to the 28-day rolling change in the daily hedonic index, Perth dwelling values have started to fall again. However, value falls have been mild at -0.2%. So far, Melbourne has seen the largest decline in property values in the wake of COVID-19, but even in Melbourne the change is less than 1%.
Weekly payroll data from the ABS, which provides an early preview of labour force conditions, shows job losses across WA have been slightly less severe than that across the rest of the country. The decline in payroll jobs across the state was 5.8% between the 14th of March and 2nd of May, as opposed to 7.3% Australia wide.
Perth has less exposure to industry sectors that have been heavily impacted by COVID-19, with 8.6% of the local workforce employed with the accommodation and food services and arts and recreation services sectors, compared with 9.1% nationally.
Despite heighted economic uncertainty, consumer sentiment levels have been improving. This is in line with a flattening of the curve and relaxation in social distancing policies, especially those specific to housing, new listing numbers are trending higher from their record lows.
Importantly, total listing numbers haven’t trended higher and are at the lowest level in ten years for this time of the year.
The trend towards a rise in new listings and consistently low total listings implies newly listed stock is being absorbed quickly by the market. As of late May, total listings were down 34.7% on where they were at the equivalent period in 2019.
Total listings across Perth counted in the 28 days to May 24th were just 13,962. Though this is a continued headwind to the real estate sector, it may be preserving stability in dwelling values.
What was once a drag on property could be a source of market stability
The strong link between mining and prosperity across WA created boom and bust conditions between 2011 and 2019. This extended to the property market. As mining investment declined significantly following a steel glut in China, job losses and resident departures across the state have left values in a downswing for years.
According to industry reporting, 2020 was the year mining investment would move through a trough, creating more jobs, and subsequent housing demand across WA. In fact, we were already seeing improving labour market and demographic trends through late 2019 and early 2020.
The past few weeks have seen an increasingly optimistic outlook for the mining sector because of a recovery in the Chinese economy. Some high frequency indicators such as coal consumption, traffic congestion and home sales suggest economic activity across China is at 90% of where it was pre-COVID-19.
Unlike recent tensions over trade in beef and barley, China is actually working to reduce barriers to iron ore imports, which is a major source of revenue for WA mining. The reason for rising iron ore demand is that Chinese steel producers expect a rise in government stimulus and infrastructure to spur production (which uses iron ore as an input).
This has contributed to a relatively strong rise in the value of iron ore and plans from some of Australia’s largest miners to boost production. Even without the relatively strong position of mining export commodities, work on mine sites may have been buoyed by long-term contracts and the relatively high liquidity of mining companies.
The mining sector has not been completely untouched by COVID-19. Some operations have been suspended, or capacity has been reduced in an effort to reduce the threat of infection at work sites. This is reflected in mining sector payroll job losses across WA, of 6.4% between the 14th of March and the 2nd of May.
However, mining companies remain optimistic. BHP signalled steel production over 2020 may even be slightly higher than in 2019 if a second outbreak of COVID-19 could be avoided.
Renewed vitality in the mining sector, and the subsequent boost to economic activity, is likely to provide some insulation in demand for the Perth property market. This would make the impending downturn less severe than it may otherwise have been.
Another key factor that should support housing demand across Perth is the sheer affordability of housing. At the end of April 2020, the median value of a house was recorded at just over $465,000 which was the lowest of any capital city.
The blend of affordable housing options and the expectation for more resilient economic conditions is a good recipe for Perth’s housing market to outperform.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia for CoreLogic
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The interrupted upswing in Perth: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=152737]

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Eliza Owen

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