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Dwelling value growth has slowed as demand from investor’s falls; is this just a coincidence or does it highlight just how reliant the housing market has become on demand from the investor segment?
Over the past five years, dwelling values nationally have increased by 39.3% largely driven by Sydney and Melbourne where values have increased by a much larger amount.  Similarly, over the most recent five years investors have committed to housing finance commitments totaling $695.6 billion.  
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-img1.png" alt="2017-11-15--img1" width="570" height="288">
At their peak in May 2015, investors accounted for 54.8% of new (excluding refinances) mortgage demand which was an historic high.  With investor demand now slowing, falling a further -6.2% in September 2017 and dwelling values falling in the most investor-centric city (Sydney), what impact is the investor slowdown going to have on the broader housing market?  To try and determine, we shall take a look at investor housing demand across each state and territory.
<h3>NSW </h3>
At their peak in May 2015, investors accounted for 63.6% of new mortgage demand which has since fallen to 50.3% in September 2017, its lowest proportion since December 2015 and well below its five year average of 55.6% of new mortgage commitments.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-nsw.png" alt="2017-11-15--nsw" width="570" height="471">
<h3>Vic</h3>
investors currently account for 43.2% of new mortgage demand which is well down from the May 2015 peak of 54.7% and below the five year average of 46.9%.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-vic.png" alt="2017-11-15--vic" width="570" height="465">
<h3>Qld</h3>
Investor activity peaked all the way back in 2007 when investors comprised 49.3% of mortgage demand.  Investors currently account for 34.3% of new mortgage lending which is lower than the five year average of 40.8%.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-qld.png" alt="2017-11-15--qld" width="570" height="461">
<h3>SA</h3>
Investor activity peaked at 47.5% of new mortgage lending in June 2015 and has reduced to 36.9% in September 2017.  Over the past five years, investors have accounted for an average of 39.8% of new mortgage lending each month.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-sa.png" alt="2017-11-15--sa" width="570" height="470">
<h3>WA </h3>
Investor participation peaked all the way back in December 2008 at 49.8% of new mortgage lending.  Over the past five years, investors have averaged 38.1% of new mortgage lending and were recorded at 33.6% in September 2017.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-wa.png" alt="2017-11-15--wa" width="570" height="468">
<h3>Tas</h3>
Over the past five years, investors have averaged 30.3% of new mortgage demand in the state while in September 2017 investors accounted for a slightly higher 33.3% of new mortgage demand.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-tas.png" alt="2017-11-15--tas" width="570" height="470">
<h3>NT</h3>
After peaking at 61.5% of new mortgage demand in June 2014, investors have slumped to just 34.1% of demand in September 2017 which is much lower than the five year average of 49.2%.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-nt.png" alt="2017-11-15--nt" width="570" height="460">
<h3>ACT</h3>
Investors currently account for 38.2% of new mortgage demand which is lower than the five year average of 43.0% and much lower than the historic high of 50.4% all the way back in June 2000.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-act.png" alt="2017-11-15--act" width="570" height="464">
The data shows that as mortgage demand from investors, particularly in NSW, has slowed, so too has the rate of value growth.  In fact, Sydney dwelling values are now falling as investor demand continues to fade. Melbourne has also seen value growth slow although not to the same magnitude as Sydney however, investor participation over recent years in Vic has not been as significant as in NSW.  Outside of NSW and Vic, investors have not been the most significant source of new mortgage housing demand over recent years.
A similar trend was evident when credit conditions were tightened after the first round of APRA’s macroprudential policy changes through 2015 and early 2016.
With investor demand continuing to reduce due to tighter credit conditions, low yields and affordability constraints, it is reasonable to expect that this will have the greatest impact on NSW housing markets followed by those in Vic.  Elsewhere, the changing landscape may slow markets a little but other states and territories have largely seen demand over recent years driven by owner occupiers.  If anything, the lack of value growth in these market, superior affordability and less demand from investors may make buying conditions slightly more favourable for owner occupiers.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Is the market slowdown driven by investors?

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The number of settled transactions in the housing market has been trending lower since peaking in 2015.
Nationally, 465,788 settled house and unit sales transacted over the 12 months to May 2018 with the annual number of settled sales -7.7% lower over the year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/6/28/CL%20Pulse%20Chart%20Column%201.JPG" alt="">
As shown in the charts, the monthly data points to a declining trend in transactions with settled sales now sitting lower than the decade average.
Over the 12 months to May 2018 Sydney recorded 84,699 settled house and unit sales in Sydney.
Although the monthly data points to a slight rebound in transactions recently, likely the result of a surge in first home buyers since July last year.
Annual sales were -13.5% lower over the past 12 months. House sales were -11.4% lower over the year and unit sales were -16.0% lower.
Monthly sales volumes have consistently been lower than the 10 year average since May 2017.
While there is likely to be some revision as unsettled sales flow through, it remains likely that ultimately sales volumes are lower over the year.
Settled sales transactions have been trending lower for a number of years in Melbourne which is partly to do with high volumes of units under construction but also strong demand and relatively low supply of housing for sale.
With values now falling, the 83,444 settled sales over the past year was -12.9% lower than the previous year.
House sales are 13.2% lower and unit sales are down -12.4%.
As is the case in Sydney, it seems unlikely that once all off-the-plan properties are completed and settled that transaction volumes will be higher than a year ago.
Over the 12 months to May 2018 there were 48,050 settled house and unit sales in Brisbane.
On an annual basis, transaction volumes across the city were -12.1% lower over the year.
House sales have fallen by -8.3% over the year while unit sales have recorded a much greater fall of -19.8%.
Monthly sales volumes have been trending lower for a number of years and are now slightly lower than the decade average.
Volumes, particularly for units, are likely to see some moderate revision over the coming years but are likely to remain lower than they were a year ago.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/6/28/CL%20Pulse%20Chart%20Column%202.JPG" alt="">
Over the past 12 months, 27,705 settled sales occurred in Adelaide which was 2.5% more sales than over the same period in 2017.
Annual house sales were 0.5% higher over the year while unit sales recorded a much greater 85% increase.
Adelaide is one of only two capital cities in which annual sales were higher over the year and it is also one of the few cities in which monthly transaction volumes are currently above the decade average.
Perth’s housing market has been in a downturn since 2014 however, there are some early signs that transaction are lifting, albeit for a very low base.
Over the past 12 months there were 30,393 settled sales which was 1.4% higher than the previous year with house sales 1.0% higher and unit sales 3.4% higher.
As the housing market slowly shows signs of improvement sales volumes may continue to climb.
Although dwelling values in Hobart are increasing at a much faster pace in Hobart than any other capital city, transaction volumes are falling.
This is largely due to strong demand and little supply of stock available for sale, advertised listings are currently around record lows across Hobart.
Over the past 12 months there was 4,915 dwelling transactions in Hobart which was -7.4% fewer than the previous year with house sales down - 7.3% and unit sales -7.9% lower.
Monthly sales are currently only marginally higher than the decade average.
Darwin has recorded 2,018 dwelling sales over the past 12 months which was -5.8% fewer than the previous year with house sales -7.7% lower and unit sales down - 2.1%.
Like Perth, Darwin has been in a downturn for a number of years but has seen an increase in transactions over recent months with last month’s sales close to the decade average.
Monthly transactions in Canberra are sitting right on their decade average however, the chart shows that sales have been trending lower for over a year.
Over the past 12 months, there were 8,310 settled sales which was -10.0% lower than the previous year with house sales down -3.0% and unit sales -16.5% lower.
With value growth slowing, it is reasonable to expect fewer sales over the short-term.
With dwelling values now falling and tighter credit conditions it is reasonable to anticipate that transaction volumes will continue to trend lower.
For sellers this means they will need to be realistic about their price expectations as buyers become more empowered.
As a result, sellers will need to ensure their marketing strategy is finely tuned and set appropriate prices in order to achieve a sale.
Fewer sales means less turnover, which in turn means less commission and less stamp duty revenue for state governments.
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Housing sale volumes trending lower: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

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First home buyers should pay attention to market conditions, not the incentives on offer.
According to recently released housing finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the volume of new loans to first home buyers in New South Wales and Victoria has climbed substantially over recent months as value growth has slowed and even begun to fall in Sydney and Melbourne. 
First home buyers must be vigilant about purchasing homes and not just be lured into buying at the peak of the market because of attractive incentives.
In New South Wales, from 1 July 2017 first home buyers don’t have to pay stamp duty for both new and existing homes for properties up to $650,000.
Stamp duty payable is reduced for buyers paying between $650,000 and $800,000.  In Victoria, if you buy a new or established home from July 1 2017 no stamp duty is payable on homes worth less than $600,000 and stamp duty is reduced for properties worth between $600,000 and $750,000.
The removal of stamp duty has resulted in a substantial increase in first home buyer housing finance commitments. 
Over the six months from July to December 2017 there were 14,279 first home buyer finance commitments in New South Wales and 18,675 in Victoria.  To put this into some sort of perspective, over the six months prior to the new incentives going live there had been 7,891 first home buyer housing finance commitments in New South Wales and 12,683 commitments in Victoria.  This represents an increase in first home buyer volumes over the two six month periods before and after the changes to incentives of 81.0% in New South Wales and 47.2% in Victoria.
Since the stamp duty changes, average loan sizes have increased by 1.3% in New South Wales compared to an increase of 1.1% over the previous six months.  This seemingly suggests that the first home buyers entering the market are not using the removal of the stamp duty barrier to borrow more. 
In Victoria, it is a bit of a different story with average first home buyer loan sizes increasing 7.0% over the past six months compared to a 2.7% increase over the previous six months.  This would seem to suggest in Victoria, the stamp duty concessions are leading to mortgagees borrowing more.
The most concerning thing for any potential first home buyer in the current New South Wales and Victoria markets should be the lure of entering a market which has been growing rapidly for many years.  In fact, recent data for Sydney and Melbourne indicates that values are now declining. 
Across all of New South Wales, values have fallen -2.4% from their August 2017 peak to January 2018 with values -3.1% lower in Sydney and not yet declining in regional New South Wales.  In Victoria, values are -0.1% lower than their November 2017 peak with declines of -0.4% in Melbourne and no declines as yet in regional Victoria.  An important point to note is that the rate of value growth is slowing in regional areas of New South Wales and Victoria although the slowdown is greater in regional New South Wales to-date.
While those declines may sound quite minor, first home buyers are generally most sensitive to changes in interest rates.  Although the cash rate is expected to be on hold until early 2019, the combination of already falling dwelling values and potentially higher mortgage rates in the medium-term, these factors should raise some alarm bells for potential buyers. 
For first home buyers there may be a sense that the removal of stamp duty along with the falling share of investors in the market creates the opportunity for entry however, ideally you do not want to be buying into a market which has only recently entered a downturn. 
The best bet for potential first home buyers may not be to jump at the incentives which are currently available.  With values declining and investor demand continuing to trend lower a better option may be to remain on the sidelines somewhat longer as values potentially continue to slide.  By doing this you potentially avoid going into negative equity immediately, you potentially buy at a lower price and you have time to save an even larger deposit for your mortgage. 
Furthermore, for well qualified borrowers with substantial deposits banks are competing heavily and offering substantial discounts for owner occupiers taking out principal and interest mortgages so if you take time and shop around you may be able to get a really good mortgage rate.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/term/28">here</a>.
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Market conditions more important than incentives on offer for FHB's

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Despite moderate value declines recently, and with a healthy median dwelling value of $904,041 as at November 2017, Sydney is remains the nation’s most expensive capital city housing market and has kept up this pace consistently, excluding a short period during 2006 and 2007 when Perth surpassed the city. 
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A valuable exercise is to look at how over time, Sydney’s premium relative to the other capital city markets has cycled.
(Note: The accompanying charts show the Sydney premium over time with the red line highlighting the average premium over the length of the period shown on each chart). 
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Overview – capital cities performance compared to Sydney: 
• Melbourne – dwelling values currently sit at $718,325 indicating that Sydney values are 25.9% higher. The Sydney premium is currently the lowest it has been since April 2014. Over the long- term Sydney’s average premium has been 39.2%. 
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/melb7.jpg" alt="">
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• Brisbane – with a median dwelling value of $490,915, Sydney dwellings are currently 84.2% more expensive than Brisbane’s. The long-term average premium is 54.1% and the premium has consistently been higher than this average since September 2014 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/bris.jpg" alt="">
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• Adelaide – Sydney dwelling values have, on average, been 180.3% higher than Adelaide’s. Adelaide’s current median dwelling value of $432,126 sees the Sydney premium at 109.2%. Sydney has had an above average premium to Adelaide consistently since November 2014. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/adel.jpg" alt="">
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• Perth – the current median dwelling values for the city is recorded at $463,026 which indicates that Sydney’s current median is 95.2% higher compared to a long-term average difference of 60.8%. The premium for Sydney housing has been above the long-term average since August 2015. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/per.jpg" alt="">
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• Hobart – with a median dwelling value of $398,093, Sydney’s median value is currently 127.1% higher. The long-term average Sydney premium is 105.0% indicating that the gap has been wider than average since December 2013. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/hob.jpg" alt="">
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• Darwin – Sydney dwellings are currently 108.9% more expensive than Darwin’s median dwelling value which sits at $432,774. Over the long-term the average premium for Sydney dwellings has been recorded at 54.9% with the premium consistently above the long- term average since June 2015. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/darwin.jpg" alt="">
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• Canberra – the median dwelling value currently sits at $588,788 which means that Sydney has a value premium of 53.5%. The long-term average premium for Sydney is 33.2% with the premium having been above average consistently since April 2014.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/12/8/canb.jpg" alt="">
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Just because the Sydney premium is currently above the long-term average for most cities, this doesn’t necessarily mean that we will see a reversion to those long term averages.
We acknowledge that dwelling values are beginning to fall in Sydney after a substantial increase over recent years. Assuming these falls continue, the premium relative to the other capital cities is likely to decline.”
Across most capital cities the current Sydney dwelling value premium is similarly large to what it was late in 2002 after a significant period of growth for the city. Following that growth phase, Sydney values peaked in December 2002 and then fell by 8.2% and didn’t eclipse the previous peak until October 2007. Mr Kusher said, “It is reasonable that we could see similar falls over the coming year(s) which would in-turn narrow the gap between the value of housing in other capital cities relative to Sydney.”
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Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>. 
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Sydney has consistently kept mantle as nation's most expensive capital city

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As at June 2018, an estimated 17,650,130 residents of Australia were born in Australia.
While this might seem like a high number, it shows that 29.4% of residents were born overseas. Based on data from the ABS, which dates back to 1996, this is the highest share of residents born overseas on record.
It also shows that over 2017-18, Australian born residents increased by 1.1%, overseas born residents increased in population by a much larger 2.8%. While that figure is high, it was down from 3.3% over the previous year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%201.JPG" alt="">
Harking back to colonial times, England remains the largest source of residents that were born overseas. In fact, almost 1 million residents were born in England, which accounts for 13.5% of all Australian residents that were born overseas. The top 10 countries of birth accounted for 54.8% of all residents that were born overseas as at June 2018.
Another interesting point of note is that migration from certain countries has clearly slowed.
The number of persons born in England peaked at 1,012,780 persons in 2013, consistently falling to its current level. The number of persons born in New Zealand also peaked in 2013 at 585,390, as did persons born in Scotland (142,360) and persons born in Italy (200,670).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%202.JPG" alt="">
 
While we have seen fewer residents born in in these countries over the past five years, there has been a significant rise in persons born in China (432,400 in 2013) and India (378,480) over the same five-year period.
Twenty years ago, the top 10 countries of birth for residents born overseas accounted for 56.0% of all residents born overseas. Keep in mind that in 1998, a much lower number of residents were born overseas.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%203.JPG" alt="">
 
The makeup of the CoreLogic top 10 list 20 years ago is quite different to how it currently looks. China is now the second largest source of residents while 20 years ago it was the seventh largest.
India, which is now the third largest source of residents was the 12th largest source, Malaysia is now the ninth largest source and was the 13th largest source 2 decades ago and South Africa is now the seventh largest source of residents compared to 17th 20 years ago.
20 years ago, Greece was the sixth largest source of residents born overseas compared to 15th now, Germany was the eighth largest source compared to being 14th now and Netherlands was the 10th largest source compared to 25th now.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/11/CL%20PP%20Population%204.JPG" alt="">
 
Although the Federal Government has recently announced that they are set to reduce the migration intake going forward, Australia is still set to be a very multicultural country.
Furthermore, demand for our education services, particularly from the world’s two most populous countries (China and India) is anticipated to remain high. As a result, expect even more residents of Chinese and Indian heritage to find their way to our shores over the coming years.
Similarly, those countries such as Scotland and Italy will likely see themselves fall out of the top 10 list over coming years with new countries of origin finding their way to the top 10 list.
CAMERON KUSHER is head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Mr Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Increasing numbers of overseas migrants: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

Significant slowdown in dwelling commencements this quarter: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
According to data recently released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) property taxation revenue increased further over the 2017-18 financial year to reach $30.293 billion.
State and local governments collected a whopping $30.293 billion worth of property tax revenue over the 2017-18 financial year. If you were to compare these statistics to what was published last year, the figures would be vastly different.
Previously, the ABS included stamp duties on conveyances as taxes on property however, in this year’s release this has been moved to a different section of taxation – taxes on the provision of goods and services.
Nevertheless, the $30.293 billion in property tax revenue was 5.6% higher over the past year with the annual increase lower than the 7.9% increase over the previous year.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/2/Property%20Taxation%201.JPG" alt="">
Within total property taxes, land taxes ($9.153b) increased 9.0% over the year, municipal rates ($18.451b) increased 4.3% and other taxes ($2.689b) increased 3.4% over the year.
Through analysis of the results, it was confirmed that revenues from property taxes are now the highest in the most populous states.
Across the states, total property tax revenue in 2017-18 was recorded at: $8.382 billion in NSW, $8.778 billion in Vic, $5.658 billion in Qld, $2.433 billion in SA, $3.654 billion in WA, $549 million in Tas, $133 million in NT and $705 million in ACT. 
Taking a look at stamp duties, which although they are no longer defined as part of ‘taxes on property’, they are a tax paid when a property when is transacted.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/2/Property%20Taxation%202.JPG" alt="">
When the housing market is seeing increased transactions and rises in values, stamp duty generally rises and vice versa. The national housing market started to see values fall late in 2017 and as a result, stamp duty revenue is largely unchanged in 2017-18 from the previous year.
Stamp duty revenue over time across each state and territory shows the most populous states derive the most revenue from stamp duty, however, the chart also shows how volatile revenue from stamp duty can be based on the performance of the housing market. Over the most recent year, stamp duty revenue fell in NSW, Qld, SA, WA, NT and ACT while it rose elsewhere.
With the national housing market now seeing values and transaction volumes continuing to decline, it is to be expected that the 2018- 19 financial year will see a much lower value of stamp duty revenue.
While non-transactional based property taxes provide state and local governments with consistent revenue streams year after year, transactional-based stamp duty is much less guaranteed and harder to forecast for budgeting purposes.
Over recent years as the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne have boomed, the NSW and Vic state governments have benefitted greatly from a significant increase in stamp duty revenue.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/2/Property%20Taxation%203.JPG" alt="">
Stamp duty revenue in NSW is 89.7% higher over the past five years and in Vic it is up 116.0%. By comparison, in WA where the housing market has largely been falling over the same period, stamp duty revenue is down -18.9%.
With the NSW and Vic Governments seemingly going to be hit by a loss of stamp duty revenue over the coming years it would seem that now is as good a time as ever to look to move away from this transactional tax.
Although no one likes additional taxes, a tax on all residential properties is more equitable than a tax on the 4%-6% of properties that transact in any given year. Furthermore, it provides a more guaranteed revenue stream to state government so they can better plan their expenditure into the future.
In closing, it should be noted that the ACT Government announced in 2012 that it was going to remove stamp duty over a 20 year period.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/2/Property%20Taxation%204.JPG" alt="">
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Property tax revenues continue climb in 2017/18 despite downturn: Cameron Kusher

Million $ suburbs decline as values fall: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional area index data for SA4 regions produced by CoreLogic is showing early signs of improving housing market conditions, predominately across Sydney and Melbourne and with some level of improvement in the areas where values previously recorded comparatively large falls.
Over the three months to July 2019, national dwelling values continued to decline, falling by -0.5%, however, the monthly rate of decline has been slowing right throughout 2019 with no change in values throughout the month of July.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/30/SA4%203.JPG" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/30/SA4%204.JPG" alt="">
The improvement in market conditions was more evident across the combined capital cities, while the combined regional markets have seen the magnitude of declines trend higher throughout 2019.
The improvement in housing market conditions is largely being driven by a slowing rate of decline in values in Sydney and Melbourne throughout 2019 with increases over the past two months.
Melbourne is the only city where values increases occured over the past three months (0.1%) while a several cities recorded slower rates of decline. Dwelling values remained lower than when at their peak across all 46 capital city SA4 regions; the magnitude of declines varied greatly from city-to-city and within the individual capital cities.
While values are now lower than their peak across all SA4 regions, 13 individual regions have either recorded an increase in value or avoided declines over the past three months.
Analysis of the 13 regions where values did not fall over the past three months where in areas that have previously seen comparatively large value declines from their peak. To July 2019, Sydney dwelling values have fallen -14.7% from their peak.
Over the past three months, seven Sydney regions have avoided falls and Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury (-15.7%), Inner West (- 15.9%), North Sydney and Hornsby (-15.4%) and Sutherland (-16.7%) have each recorded larger overall falls than the Sydney benchmark.
It is a similar story for Melbourne, four SA4 regions have avoided value falls over the past three months, two of which were the Inner East and Inner South which have seen some of the largest overall declines of all Melbourne regions, down - 15.0% and -14.4% from peak respectively. Outside of regions of Sydney and Melbourne, Hobart and Adelaide’s North have also recorded an increase in values over the past three months.
Only 15 of the 46 capital city SA4 regions have recorded falls in excess of 1.0% over the past three months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/30/SA4%201.JPG" alt="">
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/8/30/SA4%202.JPG" alt="">
Several combined regional markets are not showing the same early signs of a market recovery that was visible for the capital city markets. Furthermore, some regional markets have seen significant overall declines. For the capital cities, Mandurah in Perth experienced the largest overall decline in values (-35.7%), while three regional markets have recorded larger total falls.
Of the 42 regional SA4 areas, 16 have either recorded an increase in values or no decline over the past three months which is greater than the 13 amongst the capital cities.
The reason for the declining regional values, and with little to no real signs of an improvement, is more to do with the fact that most of the larger regional markets continue to record value falls.
What is interesting is that some of the markets that have recorded significant value falls over recent years have actually recorded value increases over the past three months. Most of these are located in Qld: Townsville, Cairns, Central Qld and Mackay-Isaac Whitsunday while Outback SA has seen the largest value increase over the three months despite values being more than 20% below their peak.
Unlike the capital city SA4 regions, two regional markets have managed to avoid declines with values sitting at record-highs. These regions are West and North West Tas and South East SA. The more populous regional markets continued to record value falls over the past three months with areas like Townsville, Cairns, Richmond-Tweed, Toowoomba and Launceston and North East the main exceptions.
Larger regional areas such as Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Geelong, Illawarra and Bunbury have continued to see values fall. Overall early signs are emerging to suggest that the housing market has stabilized, however, this evidence is much more prevalent in capital cities than regional markets.
Within the capital cities, the research concluded that improved conditions are mainly being driven by Sydney and Melbourne and interestingly, in many instances it is those areas where values have recorded larger declines over recent years that are showing the largest improvement.
Over the coming months it will be interesting to see if the improvement continues and whether it spreads from Sydney and Melbourne to other capital cities and regional markets.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic
Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.
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Regional markets have seen the magnitude of declines trend higher throughout 2019: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
As dwelling values and transactions decline and stock for sale mounts properties are taking longer to sell across most regions of the country.
Over the three months to October 2018, properties nationally had a median time on market of 53 days.
As the first chart shows there has been a clear increase in days on market of late, up from 42 days a year ago and a recent low of 38 days in December 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%201.JPG" alt=""><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Across the combined capital cities, the median days on market sat at 46 days over the three months to October 2018 compared to 61 days across the combined regional markets.
Across each of these broad regions the days on market figure was higher than during the previous year when it was recorded at 35 days and 55 days respectively.
The capital city days on market figure is now the highest it’s been since March 2016 and across the combined capital cities it is the highest since October 2016.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%203.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Although the median days on market in Sydney and regional NSW has edged slightly lower over recent months, across both regions, days on market is higher than a year ago.
In Sydney, the median days on market was 31 days a year ago and has increased to 50 days currently which is much higher than the recent low of 24 days in April 2017.
Across regional NSW, days on market currently sits at 64 days compared to 52 days a year ago and a recent low of 48 days in May 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%204.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
In Melbourne, the median time on market is currently recorded at 38 days and in regional Vic it is recorded at 41 days.
In Melbourne, the days on market is trending higher, it is much higher than the 23 days a year ago and the highest it has been since March 2016.
In regional Vic the days on market figure has been trending lower and is down from 49 days a year ago, highlighting the strengthening of housing market conditions in regional Vic as the Melbourne housing market slows.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%205.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Throughout Queensland, properties are taking longer to sell than they were a year ago.
In Brisbane, the median days on market is currently recorded at 53 days which is the longest it has taken since February 2013 and has increased from 37 days a year ago.
In regional Qld it is typically taking 69 days to sell a home, up from 55 days a year ago with the 69 days the longest it has taken to sell since February 2016.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%206.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
As at October 2018, the median time on market for Adelaide was recorded at 42 days and in regional SA it was recorded at 93 days.
As the chart shows, the days on market figure for Adelaide is trending lower and is down from 55 days a year ago.
In regional SA, days on market has begun to trend higher over recent months however, it is lower than the 102 days it was typically taking a year ago.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%207.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Perth properties were typically taking 63 days to sell over the three months to October 2018.
The days on market figure for the city is trending higher and is up from 56 days over the same period in 2017.
In regional WA, the days on market figure has been trending higher over recent months however, it is unchanged from a year ago with the median currently recorded at 82 days.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%208.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Properties that transact in Hobart are continuing to sell quickly however, there has been a fairly steep rise in days on market over recent months.
Properties in Hobart took 25 days to sell over the past three months, up from just 10 days a year ago and a recent low of 9 days during a number of months over the past year.
Properties are taking much longer to sell in regional Tas at 45 days however, the days on market figure has fallen from 53 days a year ago.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%209.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
With the ongoing weak housing market conditions properties take a long time to sell across NT.
The small volume of sales also creates volatility in the days on market figure.
In Darwin, it currently takes 90 days to sell a property compared to 100 days a year ago.
In regional NT, it was taking 66 days a year ago which was a shorter days on market than the 74 days currently.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%2010.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic 
Over the three months to October 2018, the median days on market for a Canberra property was 43 days.
The days on market for the city was higher than the 37 days it took at the same time last year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/29/DOM%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: CoreLogic
Across the nation, the data shows that the trend is towards properties typically taking longer to sell.
This is reflective of the weaker housing market conditions whereby dwelling values are falling with growth slowing in most regions, transaction volumes are lower and the overall stock available for sale continues to climb which provides buyers with more choice and less urgency.
With credit conditions much tighter than they have been over recent years accessing finance is tougher which is a major contributor to weaker overall conditions.
As a result of these trends, it is expected that the median days on market figure will continue to trend higher over the coming months as vendors of ’stale’ inventory eventually adjust their price expectations lower or withdraw their property from the market.
CAMERON KUSHER is a property research analyst for CoreLogic.
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Selling conditions weaken as inventories rise and buyer activity fades: Cameron Kusher

The new <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yarraville-green-42-stephen-street-yarraville-vic-3013">Yarraville Green</a> development in Melbourne's inner west is showing that landscaping can be just as influential as architecture, with buyers responding strongly to the garden-first approach adopted from the outset by developer Excelon Projects and the project's design team.

Excelon appointed Six Degrees Architects and landscape architects SBLA to work collaboratively on the development, with a brief to create "a sustainable, design-led building with a focus on community."

That approach has resonated with buyers. According to Next Chapter Director Tom Hirini, who is leading the sales campaign, the landscaped communal garden has become one of the project's defining features, alongside its boutique scale and European-inspired cluster housing concept.

Local downsizers, right-sizers and established families already living in Yarraville and surrounding suburbs have accounted for the majority of purchasers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297740]

Yarraville Green will comprise 53 homes, including apartments and townhomes, arranged around the shared central garden to maximise connections to the landscaped open space. Parking has been moved underground, allowing the ground plane to be dedicated to greenery, pedestrian movement and communal spaces.

The landscape extends well beyond passive planting. Productive garden beds, a pergola, communal gathering spaces, garden sheds and a pet wash have all been integrated into the masterplan, creating spaces designed to encourage everyday interaction between residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297741]

The interiors continue Excelon's focus on craftsmanship, incorporating bespoke elements by Melbourne artisans including leadlight detailing by Adadaz, hand-turned timber hardware by Auburn Woodturning and blown-glass lighting by Ruth Allen.

Sustainability has also been embedded throughout the project, with Yarraville Green targeting an average 7-star NatHERS energy rating through passive design principles, rooftop solar servicing common areas and rainwater harvesting for landscape irrigation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=144913 project_image_fid=297735]

Construction continues to progress at Yarraville Green, with structural works well underway and framing works approaching completion under builder Balmain &amp; Co. The project remains on track for completion in mid-2027.

Apartments at Yarraville Green are currently priced from $625,000, while townhomes start from $1.4 million.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=144913]

Joel Robinson

Garden-led design drives buyer demand at Yarraville Green

National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.

Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]

The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.

Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.

"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.

"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.

"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]

Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.

The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]

Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.

Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]

Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.

Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.

It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 52-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.

Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.

While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]

Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 52-storey tower, which has just shy of 250 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.

The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.

"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.

"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.

"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]

One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.

"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.

While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.

"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.

"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]

There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.

As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.

"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.

A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.

The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]

A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.

It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.

Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.

The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]

"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.

"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.

"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]

The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.

Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]

The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.

The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]

Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.

Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]

While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.

It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.

Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]

That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.

Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]

Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.

At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]

The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.

Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.

In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]

The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.

Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.

This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]

What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.

The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.

Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]

Cameron Kusher

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