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The Sydney housing market is starting to slow following more than five years of strong increases in dwelling values.
As the Sydney market slows there could be some upside for other housing markets where capital gains have been more sustainable and rental yields are higher.
Australia’s third largest city, Brisbane, has recently garnered more attention as a candidate for improved housing market conditions.
In this week’s blog we look at the historic relationship between housing market growth in Sydney and Brisbane in order to determine whether the slowdown in Sydney could translate into an acceleration in Brisbane.
 
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage1.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeindwellingvalues" width="570" height="198">
The 30 year annual change chart above tends to indicate that after a surge in Sydney dwelling values Brisbane has followed suit thereafter.  
Following Sydney dwelling value growth peaking at 61.7% p.a. in August 1988, Brisbane dwelling value growth peaked at an annual rate of 35.3% in February 1989.  
Annual growth in Sydney dwelling values also peaked in January 2002 at 20.8% with Brisbane’s rate of growth not peaking until December 2003 at 30.7%.  
Keep in mind that outside of these two clear examples, a rise in Sydney value growth has not necessarily been met with a rise in Brisbane (or vice versa).
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage2.png" alt="2017-10-09--sydneydwellingvaluepremiumrelativetobrisbane" width="570" height="198">
  What the growth of Sydney values in 1988 and 2001 did have in common is that they resulted in a significant gap opening between values in Sydney and Brisbane.  
At its peak in August 1988, Sydney dwelling values were typically 104% more than Brisbane dwellings.  
At its height in September 2001, Sydney dwelling values were 107% higher than Brisbane dwelling prices.  
Recently the chart shows that the gap between values in Sydney and Brisbane has increased and at September 2017 the differential was 86%.  
The long-term average premium for Sydney dwellings over Brisbane is 55% indicating that the gap remains above the long-term average.  Interestingly, even taking a shorter time-frame the average gap has been 56% over the past 20 years and a lower 41% over the past decade.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage3.png" alt="2017-10-09--quarterlyinterstatemigrationfromnswtoqld" width="570" height="198">
  Queensland has historically been a popular migration destination for people choosing to leave New South Wales.  
The above chart highlights that following the surge in value growth and the widening of dwelling prices between Sydney and Brisbane, migration from New South Wales to Queensland has typically increased.  
Over the long-term, the average quarterly number of persons migrating from New South Wales to Queensland has been recorded at 12,376 persons.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked over the March 1989 quarter at 18,259 persons and then averaged 14,461 persons per quarter from March 1989 to December 1991.  
Migration from New South Wales to Queensland peaked again in December 2002 at 18,129 persons and then averaged 15,392 persons per quarter from December 2002 to September 2004.
As migration from New South Wales to Queensland has recently picked-up, so far it has peaked at a much lower 13,487 persons over the December 2016 quarter which is only 9.0% above the long-term average.  
By comparison the 1989 peak saw migration to Queensland peak at 47.5% above the long-run average and the 2002 peak saw migration peak at 46.5% above the long-run average.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/2017-10-09-blogimage4.png" alt="2017-10-09--annualchangeinemployment" width="570" height="198">
  Unless those people migrating from New South Wales to Queensland are retirees, employment opportunities must be a key consideration.  
Post the 1987 boom in Sydney, New South Wales employment growth was slowing while it accelerated in Queensland.  
Similarly in the early 2000’s employment growth had been greater in New South Wales than in Queensland however, by June 2001 Queensland’s employment was growing at a faster annual rate than New South Wales’ with Queensland employment growth consistently stronger than New South Wales all the way until January 2008.  
Over this period, dwelling value growth in Brisbane had consistently been stronger than growth in Sydney.  
Looking more recently, New South Wales has consistently recorded stronger annual employment growth than Queensland between September 2014 and March 2017.  Since April 2017, annual employment growth in Queensland has been greater than in New South Wales.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-10/20174-10-09-blogimage5.png" alt="2017-10-09--unemploymentratetrend" width="570" height="198">
  Although employment growth is important, the unemployment rate is also a consideration.  
Although job creation picked up in Queensland after 1987, Queensland’s unemployment rate was consistently higher than New South Wales’ until October 1991 when it was fairly similar to that of New South Wales.  
By August 1992 Queensland’s unemployment rate fell below New South Wales’ and remained lower until December 1994.  
The New South Wales unemployment rate was then consistently lower than Queensland’s until July 2004 with Queensland’s unemployment rate remaining lower than News South Wales’ from July 2004 until late 2009 (thankyou mining boom!).  
From February 2010 onwards, Queensland is yet to chalk up one month in which its unemployment rate is lower than New South Wales’.  Interestingly though, the gap between the New South Wales and Queensland unemployment rate is currently lower (1.1 basis points) than it was as the Sydney housing market was peaking in August 1988 (1.5 basis points) and January 2002 (1.9 basis points).
The trends presented here would generally suggest that Brisbane could be well positioned for a pick-up in value growth as the Sydney housing market slows.  
Keep in mind though that there have been instances in the past where value growth has surged in Sydney and it hasn’t been followed by a surge in Brisbane, so a lift in Brisbane growth is no certainty.  
A significant gap in the cost of housing between the two cities was evident in both 1989 and 2002 and it also evident currently.  As value growth rose in Brisbane, interstate migration from New South Wales hit levels significantly above the long-term average and although interstate migration is increasing it is yet to hit anything close to those previous highs.  Employment growth is accelerating in Queensland which may encourage an increasing number of people from New South Wales to Queensland and the differential in unemployment rate is smaller than it was in 1989 and 2002.
One other consideration is whether the same magnitude of people leaving New South Wales for Queensland will actually settle in Brisbane.  
Both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are much bigger cities in their own right than they were in 1989 and 2002 plus connectivity with Brisbane is much better than it was previously, so perhaps these migrants will be more inclined to settle on one of the Coasts rather than Brisbane.  
Over the 12 months to September 2017, Brisbane dwelling values have increased by 2.9% while values on the Gold Coast are 5.4% higher over the year and Sunshine Coast values are 6.6%. 
In my opinion, before we can call a coming surge in Brisbane dwelling values we are going to need to see both more evidence that migrants are settling in Brisbane rather than the Gold and Sunshine Coasts.  Migration from New South Wales to Queensland is going to have to lift by a lot more than it has to-date.  Finally, Queensland will also need to see a sustained improvement in employment growth to lure more people across the border.
 
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Sydney housing market starting to slow: will Brisbane benefit?

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The latest internal migration data shows that an increasing number of inter-state and intra-state population movements are to either sea change/tree change regions or the outskirts of the capital cities.
Each year the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on internal migration across the regions of Australia.
Internal migration data counts the number of residents moving within the state as well as across state borders.
The tables provided within this report show the top and bottom 25 SA4 regions for net internal migration nationally over the 2015-16 financial year.
The first table shows that the Gold Coast saw the most net internal arrivals at 6,428 persons over the year. 
The data series dates back as far as 2006-07 and the net internal arrivals of 6,428 persons is the highest on record and 39.4% higher over the past year. 
It was also the first time since 2006-07 that the Gold Coast had seen the nation’s highest rate of net internal migration.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/05/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/05/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
Of the top 25 regions for net internal migration over the past year, 13 were located outside of the capital cities; generally in areas either adjacent or close to capital cities. 
These regions were a mix of sea change and tree change type locations.  Interestingly, each of these regional markets has recorded an increase in net internal migration over the year.
The data supports the strong price rises being recorded across many of Australia’s coastal and hinterland regions, especially those within easy commuting distance of the major capital cities.
None of the 12 capital city regions on the top 25 list were inner city areas in which high rise unit development is at unprecedented levels and density is increasing. 
The capital city areas listed are slanted more towards an increase in greenfield development rather higher density new housing.
The second table shows the 25 regions nationally that have recorded the greatest losses from net internal migration over the 2015-16 financial year. 
Sydney’s Inner South West recorded the largest migration away from the area over the year, losing a net 8,747 residents. 
It was actually the 10th consecutive year that Inner South West has recorded the largest greatest loss from net internal migration.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/05/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/05/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
17 of the 25 regions listed in the second table were located in a capital city market.  The regions listed are generally established areas closer to the city centre. 
These areas are either seeing greater high density new housing development or very little new housing construction. 
The non-capital city markets are characterised as regional and linked to either agriculture or the mining and resources sector.
Looking at the broader capital city and regional markets, net internal migration over the year was strongest into: Regional NSW (11,827), Brisbane (10,149), Regional Vic (8,429) and Melbourne (8,270). 
The net losses from internal migration were greatest for: Sydney (-23,176), Adelaide (-6,088), Regional WA (-4,433) and Perth (-3,270).
Net internal migration to Regional NSW, Melbourne, Regional Vi and Brisbane was the greatest it has been in at least 10 years. 
Meanwhile, net internal migration to Sydney was the lowest since 2011-12 and it was the lowest in at least 10 years to Regional Qld, Adelaide, Perth and Regional WA.
Overall the data indicates that migration is gathering pace in select regions of the country, a number of which are sea change/tree change areas. 
On the other hand, Sydney is increasingly shedding residents to other parts of the country and this is most likely linked to the high cost of housing. 
Coastal, regional areas of NSW and Vic along with Melbourne and Brisbane appear to be significant benefactors of the deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney as an increasing number of people leave the city for more affordable locations.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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It looks as if sea change and tree change is gathering pace: Cameron Kusher

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The latest housing data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that while lending to owner occupiers is fairly flat, demand from the investor segment has continued to stall. 
When you dig deeper, the data shows that owner occupier demand is growing for new lending as refinancing stalls.
The April 2017 housing finance data indicated over the month there was $32.5 billion worth of commitments which was -1.6% lower than the $33.0 billion in commitments in March.  Relative to April 2016, the value of housing finance commitments was 3.6% higher in April of this year.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-1-1.jpg" alt="">
Over the month of April 2017 there was $19.9 billion worth of housing finance commitments to owner occupiers which was actually the lowest value of lending to owner occupiers since November 2016.  There was a further $12.6 billion in finance commitments to investors which was the lowest value of lending to this cohort since September 2016.  Remember that the cooling of investor lending has largely occurred before the recent changes to investor lending policies have come into effect.  Investors have though been feeling the impact of greater interest rates increases than those implemented for owner occupiers.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-2-1.jpg" alt="">
The $19.9 billion in owner occupier housing finance commitments in April 2017 consisted of $1.9 billion for the construction of dwellings, $1.1 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $5.8 billion for refinancing of established dwellings and $11.1 billion for purchase of established dwellings.  The above chart highlights how the value of lending for purchase of established housing stock is continuing to lift while refinancing has continued to slow.  In fact, the value of lending for the purchase of established housing was at its highest level since November 2015 while the value of refinances for established dwellings was at its lowest level since May 2015.  The value of housing finance commitments for refinancing of established dwellings is now -20.9% lower than it was at its December 2015 peak.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-3.jpg" alt="">
Investors committed to $12.6 billion in housing finance commitments over the month consisting of $1.1 billion for the construction of dwellings and $11.4 billion for established housing.  Investor housing demand is slowing, due to a pull-back in demand for established investment properties.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-4.jpg" alt="">
Looking at lending across the states and territories the thing that is immediately noticeable is how overweight investment lending is in New South Wales and to a lesser degree in Victoria.  In fact New South Wales is the only state in which new lending to owner occupiers is lower in value than lending to investors.  The state level data is not seasonally adjusted and given the large volume of public holidays in April the data is generally weaker than data from March, nevertheless when we look at the proportion of lending it shows that there is some emerging weakness in investor lending.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/09/chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/09/chart-5.jpg" alt=""> 
If you strip out refinancing to focus on only new lending, the majority of new lending in New South Wales is to investors while in most other states and territories investors are less than 40% of new lending.  Compared to recent levels the proportion of lending has slowed in New South Wales falling from 57.6% in January 2017 to 55.3% currently, it has also fallen in Victoria from 47.6% of all new lending in September 2016 to 46.8% currently.  The pull-back in lending to investors in the two most populous states which also have the hottest housing markets would be encouraging for banking regulators.  Of course, both of these states are still seeing investor participation which is well above long-term average levels and a further pull-back, which is anticipated, could slow the rate of value appreciation in Sydney and Melbourne.
Overall the data points to further weakness in housing finance demand from investors and from owner occupiers that are refinancing.  The investors slowdown is likely due largely so far to the higher interest rates being pushed to customers, with a crackdown on new interest-only lending yet to come into effect it is reasonable to expect further weakness in investor demand over the coming months.  In terms of refinance, this is potentially slowing because some of the lending policy changes are making it more difficult for people to refinance, particularly if it is with the intention to then take out an investor loan.
If, as expected, the weakness in housing finance demand continues, it is likely to lead to a slowdown in housing demand.  As a result this would likely lead to slower levels of value growth over the coming months, particularly once the tougher lending rules come into effect for interest-only lending.  This is even before considering the potential for additional costs due to the banking levy and the recent credit downgrading of the non-major banks which are likely in some form to be passed on to mortgagees.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Investor demand and refinancing by owner occupiers continues to stall in April 2017

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The results of a recent household income and wealth survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) are not necessarily what you’d expect according to CoreLogic research analyst Cameron Kusher.
He said, “The results state that higher income households are more likely to be over-indebted than lower income ones and determined those households that are over-indebted and those that are not.”
The 2015-16 household income and wealth survey results, which includes household debt and over-indebtedness considers a household to be over indebted if their debt is either three or more times their income, or 75% or more of the value of their assets.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.20%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.20%20am.jpg" alt="">
Mr Kusher said, “On these measures the ABS considers 21.6% of households to be over-indebted, 51.9% of households to be not over-indebted and 26.4% of households have no debt.”
According to the results, households with the lowest disposable income are the least likely to be over-indebted while the fourth quintile households are most likely to be over-indebted.
The end results, according to Mr Kusher, is that households with higher incomes are less likely to be debt free and are more likely to be over-indebted than lower income households.
He said, “Lower income households are more likely to be debt- free compared to higher income households which is reflective of many lower income households having paid off their debt.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.28%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.28%20am.jpg" alt="">
“The data shows that 94.6% of households which are either not over- indebted (37.8%) or without debt (56.8%) have no persons in the labour force which is reflective of retirees or people that are in a position to choose not to work.”
Households with mortgage debt are more likely to be over- indebted than those households that either rent or own their home outright; only 3.5% of households that own without a mortgage are considered to be over-indebted compared to 47.0% of household with a mortgage and 9.1% of rental households.
Lone person households are likely to be those persons who are living debt free (45.9%), while single family households with a couple and dependent children (10.7%) are the least likely to be living debt free.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.36%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.36%20am.jpg" alt="">
Interestingly, the data indicates that group households are among those least likely to be over-indebted (16.2%) as well as being amongst the least likely to be without debt (20.8%).
Mr Kusher said, “This probably reflects the fact that university students and young professionals are most likely to live in group households while studying and prior to purchasing their own home.”
The data also shows that households that are over-indebted spend 24.2% of all goods and services expenditure on housing costs compared to not over-indebted households spending 16.8% of their expenditure on housing costs.
The report shows that on average, over-indebted households spend more than double ($150.54) each week on their mortgage repayments than households which are not over-indebted ($73.44).
Mr Kusher said, “Households with no mortgage debt, most of which are retiree households, are least likely to be over- indebted.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.47%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-21%20at%2011.15.47%20am.jpg" alt="">
“On the other hand, higher income households with a family that have outstanding mortgage debt are those most likely to be over-indebted.”
“While you could say that families of working age with higher incomes are better able to service their debt, interest rate hikes or reductions in the value of their assets could have a significant impact on their ability to service their debt.”
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Almost three quarters of Australian households are indebted: Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Quarterly Housing &amp; Economic Review is a breakdown of the activity across each of the capital cities over the quarter to June 2017 and also dives into the economic factors that contribute to the overall performance of the market.
June 2017 marked the fifth anniversary of the current housing market growth phase. Over the second quarter of 2017, combined capital city dwelling values had increased by 0.8% which was their slowest quarterly growth rate since December 2015.
The June quarter has historically shown seasonal weakness, however, despite a slower rate of growth over the quarter, the combined capital cities still recorded value growth of 9.6% over the past 12 months. With values continuing to rise, the total value of residential property nationally was estimated at $7.1 trillion at the end of the quarter.
Sydney and Melbourne were the only capital cities to have recorded double-digit value growth over the past year with values increasing by 12.2% and 13.7% respectively. Although values have risen swiftly in these two cities over the year, the annual trend rate of growth has slowed since the March 2017 quarter.
Across the remaining capital cities, values have increased over the past year in Brisbane (2.0%), Adelaide (2.4%), Hobart (6.8%) and Canberra (9.6%) while values are lower in Perth (-1.7%) and Darwin (-7.0%).
In 2008 during the financial crisis, combined capital city dwelling values fell by around 6%. The combination of state and federal government stimulus and aggressive cuts to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank saw values rise from the end of 2008 and since then, over two growth cycles, combined capital city dwelling values have increased by 69.8%.
The rates of growth since 2008 have been substantially greater in Sydney (110.9%) and Melbourne (95.3%) than across all other capital cities. Canberra (39.1%) is the only other capital city to have seen values rise by more than 20% since the end of 2008. Growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been due to a range of factors, including but not limited to: rapid population growth, much stronger economic conditions driving employment growth and a relatively low supply of established stock available for sale.
The ongoing rises in home values are being supported by a low cost of borrowing.
As values have increased over recent years, so too has supply with new housing construction, particularly construction of units, recently passing through a new historically high level. New construction activity has been driven by the low cost of borrowing and the elevated level of activity from the investor segment of the market, including demand emanating from overseas.
It is reasonable to conclude that many of the new units constructed in particular, have been purchased by investors. It has also been widely reported that the level of purchasing by offshore buyers has increased dramatically over recent years which has also supported the heightened level of new housing construction. The surge in unit construction is already leading to units increasing in value at a slower pace than houses across a number of capital cities.
Although new housing construction has started to slow, a substantial volume of units remain under construction and will continue to ensure completions remain elevated over the next few years.
A year ago the rental market was showing clear signs of slowing with the surge of new housing stock causing rental growth to slow. Over the past nine to 12 months, rental growth has started to pick-up noticeably. It is difficult to know exactly what has driven this however, rapid population growth and the sheer lack of affordability of owning a home are most likely drivers.
Furthermore, the rising popularity of AirBNB is potentially resulting in some level of stock removal from the long-term rental market and increasing supply in the short-term market. Additionally, as mortgage rates edge higher, particularly for investment mortgages, it is likely that landlords will be doing their best to recoup their higher cost of debt by pushing rents higher.
Capital city dwelling values have now been rising for five years and the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been significantly greater than that outside of these two cities. While lower mortgage rates have improved mortgage serviceability, for those that don’t own a home it is increasingly difficult for them to firstly save a large enough deposit and secondly to compete with the equity that current home owners have built over recent years.
The housing market conditions prevalent in Sydney and Melbourne are not prevalent across the rest of the country however, these cities are being supported by strong economic and demographic conditions which are fuelling mortgage demand.
Mortgage rates have clearly played a role in driving housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne but the relatively weaker economic conditions outside of these two cities have dampened housing demand elsewhere. With affordability becoming stretched we are seeing increasing pushes for housing market reform from Government. These calls are expected to only grow louder the longer the current growth conditions persist.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Sydney, Melbourne record double-digit value growth

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GUEST OBSERVER
The consumer price index (CPI) for June 2017 was released earlier this week showed that over the quarter headline inflation was recorded at 0.2% which took inflation to just 1.9% over the year to June 2017. 
Although annual headline CPI was temporarily within the Reserve Bank (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% over the March 2017, it has been below target for 10 of the past 11 quarters.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-1-1.jpg" alt="">
Adjusting dwelling value growth for inflation provides valuable insight into the housing market’s performance.  With inflation currently at such a low level, adjusting for it is not resulting in any additional capital cities seeing value decline however, over the longer term it does highlight the significant under performance in terms of value growth for certain cities.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-2-1.jpg" alt="">
While in nominal terms capital city dwelling values declined in 2008 and then again in 2011-12, in real terms the declines were larger over these two periods and values also declined in 2004-05.  In nominal terms, values fell by -6.1% between March and December of 2008 and by -6.4% between September 2010 and June 2012.  In real terms, values fell by -2.6% between March 2004 and December 2005, by -8.3% between March and December 2008 and by -10.8% between September 2010 and December 2012.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-3-1.jpg" alt="">
Since the value declines ceased at the end of 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have actually recorded real growth in dwelling values.  In all other cities, real dwelling values are currently lower than they were at the end of 2008 which is now almost nine years ago.  This data really highlights the uneven nature of growth across the capital city housing markets since the end of the financial crisis. It also shows that low mortgage rates alone are not the driver of the much stronger growth in Sydney and Melbourne.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/04/chart-4-1.jpg" alt="">
The above chart shows the change in real dwelling values across each capital city relative to their most recent market peaks.  The chart again shows that values are only above their previous peak in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.  Brisbane values are -9.3% lower than their peak in March 2008, Adelaide values peaked in June 2010 and are still -6.3% lower.  In Perth, the market peak was September 2007 and values are still -20.0% off their peak and in Hobart values are -11.2% lower than their peak which occurred in December 2007.  Finally, Darwin has seen the largest fall in real dwelling values, down -26.7% from its peak with the peak having occurred in September 2010.
The regularly reported nominal value data is valuable however, it is important and interesting to consider the impact of inflation on dwelling values from time-to-time.  As the data shows, outside of Sydney and Melbourne and to a lesser degree Canberra, dwelling value growth has been extremely weak for a number of years now.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>. 
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Since 2008, only Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra have seen ‘real’ growth in dwelling values

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If the only inevitabilities in life are death and taxes, then the economy and government policy will start to reflect it.
This is particularly evident when the baby boomer generation goes through the significant transition to retirement.
In March 2017, an unprecedented value of building work was approved in construction of aged care facilities, totalling $340 million over the month.
Australia’s population aged 65 and over is an estimated 3.7 million people by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Approximately 5 percent are living in retirement communities, or some 184,000 Australians. Based on current projections, Australians aged 65 and over will make up over 20 percent of the population in 10 years’ time.
Despite a rapidly ageing population, the reality of developing aged accommodation – particularly retirement villages – is a harsh one. Like many assets, growth in the residential housing market has crowded out capital for aged accommodation.
According to a 2016 joint survey by the Property Council of Australia and Retirement Living, the national average price of a standard, two bedroom independent living unit increased just over 3 percent between 2015 and 2016. In the same period, CoreLogic data shows the national standard dwelling increased 7.3 percent.
Competition for vacant land, age friendly regulation compliance and investment into green technology to reduce long term service fees are factors that can inflate initial investment. This is amplified by the average tenure in retirement villages, which is approximately 12 years.
However, some areas across the country lend themselves to aged care development. Advantages such as relatively affordable land and mild climates make them popular with retirees. New incentives to downsize introduced in the federal budget may further boost these areas.
CoreLogic data of aged care facilities, independent living units and retirement villages reveals the areas most likely to benefit from the ageing population.
Of the states and territories, the most aged accommodation construction is occurring in New South Wales. The state has 113 projects with construction commenced or imminent over the next five years.
Within New South Wales, the highest frequency regions for construction were The Hills Shire, Newcastle, Wyong and Gosford. Between these regions, there are 26 aged care accommodation projects either approved or commenced, with completion expected by 2023. Newcastle, Wyong and Gosford offer lower land prices along the coast. As for the Hills Shire, while its lack of public transport to the city makes it relatively unattractive for young professionals, the area has a quiet, leafy exclusivity for retirement communities.
The number of aged accommodation developments in each state and territory is generally proportionate to population. The exception is South Australia, where there are 56 developments expected to be completed over the next few years. Of these, 10 are located in Onkaparinga Council, and 6 are located in the Port Adelaide Enfield region. South Australia has a higher proportion of 65’s and over to the total population.
Looking at individual council areas, Brisbane City is by far the most popular spot for aged accommodation projects. In the last 5 years, the region has seen over $725 million in aged care and aged living construction, ranging from upgrades of existing facilities to a $60 million integrated care facility at Carina. By 2020, a further 22 projects in the space are expected to be completed. In the same period, a further 11 are planned for the Moreton Bay Regional area, 9 in the Sunshine coast and 5 in Toowoomba.
A common trend in new developments is the blending of care types in the one precinct, such as the three tiered levels of care in The Village Coorparoo, mean that people are likely to stay on the one site for a longer period of time, or, ‘age in place’. The ageing in place model was also adopted in the recently completed Woodlands Aged Care Facility in the Sunshine Coast.
In the residential care sector, the Aged Care Financing Authority estimates that over the next decade, approximately 76,000 new places will be required, compared with just 35,000 established in the previous decade. In addition, much of the existing stock will require a knockdown and rebuild. The forecast investment required over the next decade is $33 billion. While the initial costs make aged accommodation unappealing for the average investor, the boomer retirement transition could represent a further boom for the construction industry.
Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The areas capitalising on an ageing population: Cameron Kusher

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Despite being in the midst of a nationwide dwellings construction boom over recent years, the total volume of housing stock increased by a lower proportion in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart between 2011 and 2016 than they did between 2006 and 2011.
Over the five years between the Census collection periods, there has been a shift towards denser housing stock being added to the capital cities is evident.
Interestingly, while driving around inner city areas you would be led to believe that it is higher density units which have been most abundant in new supply, the data points to medium density supply having ramped up the most.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.36%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.36%20am.jpg" alt="">
In Sydney (17.9%), Melbourne (61.0%), Brisbane (29.6%), Adelaide (46.5%), Perth (49.4%) and Canberra (36.9%) it was medium density housing types which recorded the greatest increase in stock over the five years.
In each of these cities, except for Adelaide and Perth, separate house stock saw the smallest increase of the three housing types over the five years.”
Looking at the proportion of total housing stock by type based on the Census data, across each capital city, separate houses remain the dominant property type.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.46%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.46%20am.jpg" alt="">
However, given the previously presented data, the proportion of separate houses has fallen over recent Census periods.
The data indicates that in most capital cities, medium and high density housing remain a relatively small but increasing proportion of the overall housing mix.
Ten years ago in Sydney, 61.7% of housing stock was separate houses, and in the latest Census 55.7% of housing stock was separate houses.
If this trajectory continues by the 2026 Census less than half of Sydney’s housing stock will be separate houses.
With ongoing under investment in much needed infrastructure, there are significant lifestyle benefits associated with living closer to the city centre however, the supply of land in the areas closer to the city centre is limited.
This is leading to increasing levels of medium and higher density dwelling construction and premiums for detached housing located close to the city centres.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.57%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/06/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-06%20at%2011.35.57%20am.jpg" alt="">
Although approvals for these types of properties has slowed recently, it is anticipated that construction of medium and high density dwellings will remain elevated relative to historic levels.
I believe we’ll see the shift towards a greater proportion of capital city housing being medium and high density will continue over the coming years.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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The rise and rise of medium density housing: Cameron Kusher

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A budget of $400,000 for a property purchase in a capital city used to provide an array of options.
However, with dwelling values continuing to rise, new research by CoreLogic shows a significant reduction in the proportion of sales occurring in this price bracket. 
The research shows that across Australia, 31.2% of houses and 37.3% of units sold transacted for less than $400,000.
By comparison, a year ago the proportions were recorded at 32.8% for houses and 38.6% for units.
A decade ago, 62.4% of all house sales and 68.9% of unit sales were priced below $400,000.
Almost seventeen percent of all house sales and 28.4% of all unit sales over the 12 months to June 2017 were below $400,000.
Even comparing these figures to just a year earlier the decline in the proportion of sales under $400,000 is extremely noticeable for houses (19.0%) and somewhat less so for units (29.6%).
A decade ago, more than half of all capital city house (53.1%) and unit (66.3%) were less than $400,000.”
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.40.39%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.40.39%20am.jpg" alt="">
Outside of the capital cities, 52.0% of houses and 60.5% of units sold over the 12 months to June 2017 were priced below $400,000.
A year earlier the proportions were recorded at 54.3% for houses and 63.2% for units.
If we go back 10 years more than three quarters of regional house (75.6%) and unit (75.2%) sales were less than $400,000.
Over the past year, less than 3.5% of all house sales in Sydney and Canberra were below $400,000 compared to 35.5% and 40.0% respectively a decade ago.
In a market like Sydney, the unit market doesn’t represent much of an alternative with 7.4% of all unit sales over the past year below $400,000 compared to 53.9% a decade ago.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.40.49%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.40.49%20am.jpg" alt="">
Looking specifically at houses, a decade ago only Sydney (35.5%) and Canberra (40.0%) had fewer than 50% of sales below $400,000.
Compared that to the last 12 months, Hobart was the only capital city to have more than 50% (53.2%) of house sales below $400,000.
Today’s research shows a similar, but not quite as dramatic decline in the proportion of units selling under $400,000.
A decade ago, only Sydney (53.9%) and Perth (60.4%) had fewer than 70% of units selling for less than $400,000.
Over the past 12 months, only Adelaide (59.2%) and Hobart (78.3%) had greater than half of all unit sales below $400,000.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.41.02%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.41.02%20am.jpg" alt="">
As dwelling values continue to increase, we anticipate that over the next 12 months the proportion of properties selling for less than $400,000 will further reduce and in the way that the rising number of sales of properties for at least $1 million shows the deteriorating affordability, so too does the significant reduction in the availability of properties priced under $400,000.”
Although the Federal Government attempted to address housing affordability in the Budget this year, in order to improve housing affordability, clearly there is much more work to be done on both supply and demand drivers of the market.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.41.18%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/08/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-17%20at%2011.41.18%20am.jpg" alt="">
A greater supply of stock which could potentially reduce prices would at the very least be a good start however, the supply needs to be supported by sufficient infrastructure and employment opportunities.”
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Housing price barrier increases as under $400,000 housing supply dries up: Cameron Kusher

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Over recent years the level of investor participation in the national housing market has hit historic high levels and at the same time, housing finance commitments to owner occupier first time buyers has shrunk. 
As an example, January 2017 housing finance data shows that based on the total value of housing finance commitments, a record-low 7.1% of commitments were to owner occupier first home buyers while 39.0% of the value of all commitments were to investors.
Click to enlarge
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/chart-1-2.jpg" alt="">
The above chart looks at the proportion of the total value of housing finance commitments going to owner occupier first home buyers and investors nationally.  As the level of lending to investors has increased over recent years it has done so at the expense of owner occupier first home buyers. 
Except for briefly in 1992, investors have consistently outweighed owner occupier first home buyers in terms of housing finance demand.  The only time first home buyer lending has got close to that of investors was in 2008 and 2009 during the financial crisis. 
At that time, investors were fearful and first home buyers were receiving substantial stimulus from the Federal Government which led to heightened housing demand to those that don’t already own property.
It is a similar story surrounding first home buyer activity being much lower than that of investors across the individual states and territories.  Furthermore, in 2008 and 2009 the combination of stimulus and investor caution resulted in a lift of first home buyer activity at the expense of investors. 
The data here has been paired between housing finance and lending finance data.  We have multiplied the average first home buyer loan size by their number of loans to determine the value of first home buyer loans and taken the investor loan data from lending finance.  Note that the following figures include refinances.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/chart-2-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/chart-2-3.jpg" alt="">
In January 2017, an historic low 3.4% of all housing finance commitments in New South Wales were to owner occupier first home buyers compared to 46.9% of total lending to investors. 
The 46.9% of housing finance commitments to investors was their highest level since July 2015.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/chart-3-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/chart-3-3.jpg" alt="">
Victorian investors accounted for 37.5% of the total value of housing finance commitments in January 2017 compared to 7.7% of the total value to owner occupier first home buyers.  The level of activity from first home buyers is currently at an historic low level while investor participation is sitting at levels not seen since July 2015.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/24/chart-4-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/03/24/chart-4-3.jpg" alt="">
Owner occupier first home buyers are more active in Queensland than they are in New South Wales or Victoria however, they still only accounted for 10.8% of the value of housing commitments in January 2017 compared to investors accounting for 31.6%.  Housing affordability has not deteriorated in Queensland to the extent it has in New South Wales and Victoria however, first home buyers continue to be well and truly outnumbered by investors.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-5-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8414" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-5-2.jpg" alt="" width="1685" height="596">
In January 2017, owner occupier first home buyers in South Australia accounted for 6.9% of the value of housing finance commitments compared to investors accounting for 30.1%.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-6-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8415" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-6-1.jpg" alt="" width="1687" height="599">
Owner occupier first home buyers in Western Australia accounted for 14.3% of the total value of housing finance commitments in January 2017 compared to investors that accounted for 27.3%.  Dwelling values are falling across most regions of the state and investor borrowing still far outweighs first home buyers. You would think that falling prices would scare investors away from purchasing and create an opportunity for first home buyers but that hasn’t really occurred in Western Australia over the past few years.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8416" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-7.jpg" alt="" width="1688" height="603">
In January 2017, owner occupier first home buyers in Tasmania accounted for 10.3% of total housing finance commitments compared to investors that accounted for 27.6%.  The proportion of lending to investors in Tasmania is at its highest level since April 2015.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8417" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-8.jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="603">
Northern Territory investors accounted for 38.8% of the value of all housing finance commitments in January 2017 compared to owner occupier first home buyers who accounted for 8.3%.  Despite the fact that dwelling values are falling across most of the Northern Territory, fist home buyer volumes remain low and investors remain quite active.  This is probably due to the fact that in Darwin in particular, the population tends to be more transient than in other parts of the country.
<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8418" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/chart-9.jpg" alt="" width="1687" height="602">
Across the Australian Capital Territory in January 2017, 9.1% of the total value of housing finance commitments was to owner occupier first home buyers compared to 35.5% to investors.
The national and individual state and territory data shows that historically the only way to substantially boost first home buyer participation has been at the expense of investors, as occurred in 2008/09.  At the time this didn’t occur through a policy specifically targeted at slowing investor demand it happened more so organically due to significant first home buyer stimulus and investor fears at the time.  Keep in mind that these policy choices also led to, in certain areas, a substantial increase in dwelling values.
Including in 2008/09, investors have consistently outweighed owner occupier first home buyers in terms of new mortgage borrowing. 
This shouldn’t really surprise anyone given that most investors already have a residential property asset and many of which use at least a portion of the equity in that asset to fund the investment.  First home buyers don’t have the existing foothold in the housing market and are always going to find it difficult to compete with borrowers that already have assets and equity. 
Unfortunately the ABS does not publish data on the number of loans to investors so we can’t see a true picture of loans written rather just the value lent.  Keep I mind that investors that already own homes generally have the ability to borrow more than first home buyers and in-turn may typically take out larger loans than first home buyers.
Based on the data is seems that the way to get more first home buyers entering into the market is to do it at the expense of investors.  If you can increase purchasing by first home buyers there will be, at least initially, less demand for rental accommodation. 
Longer-term though, the population grows and people age so deterring investment may have greater repercussions for the housing market. Keep in mind though that heightened housing market activity from first home buyers that don’t own housing assets and have no housing equity may actually create more instability in the housing market.
There is no easy fix to encourage higher levels of housing market participation from first home buyers but the data indicates a heightened level of activity from this market segment is most likely to occur via a reduction in demand from the investor segment.   While people that don’t already own homes may see this as a great solution we should be cautious as it may have larger long-term effects on housing supply and housing market stability. 
I don’t believe that the balance between first home buyers and investors is currently right and we should look at ways to cool some of the market’s current investment exuberance but we should also be cautious about encouraging excess demand from first home buyers who may find it more difficult to repay mortgages once interest rates start to increase.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Investors historically outweigh first home buyers but gap widens: Cameron Kusher

Queensland builder-developer MAYD has revealed the first look at its major North Kirra beachfront development, lodging amended plans that reduce the number of apartments and increase the proportion of larger residences.

The project is planned across a substantial 4,742 sqm amalgamated site spanning seven lots at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-6-pacific-parade-bilinga-qld-4225">2-6 Pacific Parade</a> and 27-33 Golden Four Drive in Bilin​ga, directly opposite Nor​th Kirra Beach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/mayd-group">MAYD</a> secured the site for $32.5 million in 2025, in what was one of the Gold Coast's largest property transactions of the year.

The development will be delivered across two stages, with the first stage carrying an estimated gross realisation value of around $360 million.

The latest amendments seek to reduce the overall apartment count and shift the project further toward the owner-occupier market, with larger residences designed for buyers wanting considerably more space than traditionally offered in a beachfront apartment.

The residential mix will include townhomes, oversized two-bedroom apartments, substantial three-bedroom residences and four-bedroom homes.

MAYD has appointed Cera Stribley to lead the architecture and interiors, with the Melbourne-based design practice drawing on the beachfront setting through a series of ocean-facing terraces and heavily landscaped balconies.

Strong horizontal forms and curved balconies will define the exterior, with subtropical landscaping integrated throughout the building to soften the built form and increase the connection between the residences and the beachfront.

The project will also include an extensive collection of resident wellness and lifestyle facilities, continuing the broader shift across the Gold Coast's luxury apartment market toward larger homes supported by resort-style amenity.

<img alt="MAYD" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d1bcbb05-e659-4b47-8bd4-1e595315e2ad" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%202.05.03%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=jj0XEud1X1DuLt7_KyElhjMdZGOXmLHP" />

MAYD Founder Todd Mould said North Kirra was increasingly appealing to buyers attracted to the more established, lower-density character of the southern Gold Coast.

"North Kirra presents one of the most compelling luxury residential opportunities currently emerging in Australia, combining absolute beachfront with the character and authenticity that buyers are increasingly seeking, and the same sense of tight-knit community that defined Burleigh and Currumbin perhaps 10 or 15 years ago," Mould said.

"With Gold Coast Airport on its doorstep, it also offers a level of accessibility that broadens its appeal across almost every market demographic."

The project comes as the southern Gold Coast continues to attract an increasing share of high-end apartment development and buyer activity.

Kirra in particular has emerged as one of the region's more tightly held beachfront markets, with its relatively low-density character, established surf and hospitality scene and proximity to Gold Coast Airport differentiating it from the higher-density markets further north.

Mould said those characteristics had informed the approach MAYD and Cera Stribley had taken to the project.

"We've worked closely with Cera Stribley to create a vision that is deeply connected to its surroundings," he said.

"Inspired by the coastline itself, the architecture has been shaped around space, privacy and resort-style living, creating a collection of homes that reflects the next generation of luxury on the southern Gold Coast."

MOTIV Managing Director Carly Cottam, who has been appointed to market the project, said buyer attention had continued to move south along the Gold Coast.

"Purchasers who may once have defaulted to Broadbeach, Main Beach or Surfers Paradise are increasingly recognising the value of a genuine beachfront location that offers lower density, strong amenity and a more established sense of community," Cottam said.

"Kirra has a powerful combination of growing demand and genuine scarcity. Beachfront supply is inherently constrained, the area remains relatively low density, and buyers are increasingly placing a premium on locations that feel established, uncrowded and authentic rather than heavily developed."

Cottam said the proximity to Gold Coast Airport was also proving increasingly important for interstate and second-home buyers.

"Being minutes from Gold Coast Airport makes it particularly compelling for interstate buyers, frequent travellers and second-home purchasers who can access an authentic coastal lifestyle almost immediately after stepping off a flight."

The acquisition takes MAYD's active development portfolio to more than $500 million, with the North Kirra project representing one of its largest undertakings to date.

MAYD is targeting an early 2027 launch.

Joel Robinson

First look at MAYD's North Kirra mixed-use precinct

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Castle Hill, the longtime hub of the Hills District, has been one of the major beneficiaries of Sydney's Metro expansion, with improved connectivity helping drive continued population growth, development and buyer demand across the Hills District.

But despite that growth, the suburb has seen relatively few major new apartment projects brought to market over the past 18 months.

Hills District developer Reve Group is looking to fill that gap with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nova-r-ve-castle-hill-2-garthowen-crescent-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Nova Rêve</a>, a major new mixed-use precinct on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and Old Castle Hill Road, a short walk from Castle Hill Metro Station and Castle Towers.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377679]

The project will comprise three residential towers alongside a hotel, restaurants, cafes and a skybar, more than 1,600 sqm of ground-floor retail and almost an acre of landscaped gardens.

It represents the largest project undertaken by Reve Group, the development arm of the Kassis family, which has been building across the Hills District for more than 30 years through Kassis Homes.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377675]

Nova Rêve also represents a significant step up from the family's first apartment development, Grand Rêve, which was delivered nearby on Garthowen Crescent.

Grand Rêve introduced larger, house-like apartment layouts and premium inclusions including Wolf and Sub-Zero appliances to the Castle Hill market.

Nova Rêve takes that approach to a precinct scale, combining the residential component with hospitality, retail and substantial public and resident landscaping.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377685]

Reve Group Managing Director Sam Kassis said the project reflected the family's three decades of building in the Hills, which has evolved from trophy homes on quarter-acre blocks to larger-scale apartment development.

"Grand Rêve was our first apartment project here and it showed us what this pocket of Castle Hill could be. Nova Rêve is the refinement of that idea: not just apartments, but a place the whole suburb can use," Kassis said.

A key part of that approach is the hotel, which has been designed to operate as an amenity for the wider Castle Hill community rather than solely hotel guests.

It will include restaurants, cafes, skybars and all-day dining, alongside conference and event facilities catering to business functions, community groups and private events.

At ground level, more than 1,600 sqm of shops and cafes will open onto the surrounding streets and landscaped areas.

Almost an acre of gardens designed by Land and Form Studios will run through the precinct, incorporating pathways, seating, barbecue areas and children's play spaces.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=152737 project_image_fid=377680]

Reve Group's Romio Georges said creating an active ground plane had been central to the planning of Nova Rêve.

"There are gardens with pathways, barbecues, seating and play areas, shops and cafes opening onto the street, and a hotel with restaurants and a skybar that anyone in Castle Hill can walk into," Georges said.

The project's elevated position on one of Sydney's highest ridgelines will also provide apartments with outlooks toward the Sydney skyline, surrounding parkland and the Blue Mountains.

More than 80 per cent of the apartments will occupy corner positions, with Turner responsible for both the architecture and interiors.

&nbsp;

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Nova Rêve arrives as Reve Group bets on Castle Hill's next growth phase

A collection of just 25 large-format apartments and penthouses overlooking Goodwin Park is entering the Coolangatta market, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/marea-residences-coolangatta-27-27a-dixon-street-coolangatta-qld-4225">Maréa Residences</a> combining a low-density, residential-only approach with uninterrupted park and Pacific Ocean outlooks.

Located at 27 Dixon Street, Maréa comprises three and four-bedroom residences alongside a limited number of dual-level penthouses, with the project positioned between Goodwin Park and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/coolangatta-qld-4225">Coolangatta</a>’s coastal precinct.

Construction has commenced, with completion currently estimated for late 2027. Three-bedroom residences are priced from $1.8 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374005]

The project has been designed around its northern outlook across the park, with the building’s architecture, landscaping and material palette intended to establish a connection with the neighbouring green space. The residences have been configured to maximise natural light and views across Goodwin Park towards the ocean.

Inside, the material palette incorporates timber, stone and brushed brass, complemented by curved detailing and ambient lighting. Kitchens and bathrooms carry the same natural material approach, while residences also include basement parking, storage and lift access.

Maréa’s penthouses are arranged over two levels and include private pools, adding another layer to the project’s focus on larger-format apartment living. Across the development, residences are configured with three or four bedrooms rather than the broader mix of smaller apartment types commonly found in larger projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374010]

Resident amenity is concentrated at rooftop level, where landscaped entertaining terraces and pools take advantage of elevated views across Coolangatta and the Pacific Ocean.

The project has so far been particularly well received by local owner-occupiers and downsizers, according to Urban Activation Property Sales and Marketing Director Matt George, with the residential-only format, construction quality and northern park outlook among the features resonating with purchasers.

“The uninterrupted northern aspect overlooking Goodwin Park has been a key point of difference, with buyers attracted to the sense of serenity and open space the park provides, while still enjoying easy access to the ocean and being within walking distance of the lifestyle and amenities Coolangatta has to offer,” George said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150999 project_image_fid=374002]

“The combination of high-quality construction, a residential-only building, park outlook and proximity to the beach has resonated strongly with the local downsizer market.”

The Dixon Street address is within walking distance of Coolangatta Beach and the broader southern Gold Coast coastline, including the surf breaks at Snapper Rocks and Kirra. Coolangatta’s cafés, restaurants and retail are nearby, while Gold Coast Airport is also within close proximity.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150999]

Maréa Residences brings parkside apartments to Coolangatta

Melbourne developer PDG has secured Victorian Government approval for its $1.5 billion Southbank development <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-one-1-queens-bridge-street-southbank-vic-3006">The One</a>, clearing the way for the long-dormant riverfront site opposite Crown to finally be developed.

The Minister for Planning has approved the project at 1-29 Queens Bridge Street, with the Department of Transport and Planning issuing the planning permit following its assessment.

The approval will allow PDG to develop the prominent 5,059 sqm site with a major mixed-use tower comprising premium apartments, including branded residences, a luxury hotel and boutique office space.

PDG acquired the site in late 2024, with its position directly opposite Crown's main entrance and near Melbourne's Arts Precinct making it one of Southbank's most significant remaining development opportunities.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3933013e-6332-4386-b9be-089df05caf17" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.22%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=sITIgBqDL0N3VNSMwWEmF5UA.uvcsRyu" />

Designed by COX in collaboration with ODO and PDG, the tower's architecture draws on the movement of the Yarra River, with six vertical pleats running the height of the sculpted facade.

The project will also see the heritage-listed Queens Bridge Hotel restored and incorporated into the development&nbsp;with new hospitality and public uses, including a rooftop venue.

A significant component of The One will be its residential amenity.

More than 5,000 sqm of resident facilities will be delivered across a single level, making it one of the largest consolidated residential amenity offerings proposed in an Australian apartment development.

The planning approval also incorporates a major upgrade of Queensbridge Square, which PDG will deliver in partnership with the City of Melbourne.

<img alt="PDG" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="73167fcd-1031-4b6f-a408-a064cfe45ed1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-08-27%20at%209.29.17%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=Pf1AEWxw6SNmBqR0zQW5lyEze.MtxgFp" />

The existing square will be revitalised as a new civic and pedestrian space along the Yarra River, strengthening the connection between the project, Southbank and the riverfront.

PDG Founder and Managing Director Vince Giuliano said the approval represented a major milestone for a site which has remained largely underutilised for more than 15 years.

“This is the most significant Planning Permit approval Melbourne has seen in recent years,” Giuliano said.

“For more than 15 years, this site has remained underutilised. This approval enables us to deliver a project that will contribute meaningfully to the revitalisation of Southbank, restore and reactivate an important heritage building, and create a new civic and hospitality destination for Melbourne.”

The latest approval follows an earlier planning permit issued by the City of Melbourne covering demolition works across part of the site at 9-29 Queens Bridge Street. Those demolition and early works are already underway.

PDG has also started generating early interest in the residential component from owner-occupiers ahead of a planned public launch in early 2027.

PDG secures approval for $1.5bn Southbank apartment development, The One

Local developer Harridan is seeking to turn its Woolloongabba apartment project into the first stage of a broader transformation of Burke Street, using a new 16-storey mixed-use building to establish a greener pedestrian connection toward the rapidly evolving Boggo Road transport and knowledge precinct.

The South East Queensland developer has filed plans for 154 apartments on the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/4-burke-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">southern side of Burke Street</a>, where its proposal has been designed alongside a wider vision by LatStudios for the street.

That vision positions the southern side of Burke Street for buildings of 15 storeys and above, while envisaging lower-rise development of up to five storeys on the northern side to transition into Woolloongabba's existing character housing. It also proposes wider pedestrian verges, deep planting, new street trees and upgrades to the pedestrian approach to Boggo Road Station.

The Harridan development itself has been designed by Brisbane-based Arqus Design and will comprise 154 apartments across 16 storeys. The mix is weighted heavily toward two-bedroom apartments, with 121 proposed alongside 10 one-bedroom and 23 three-bedroom residences. There will typically be around 14 units per floor.

A lower-ground car park and three podium levels will accommodate 156 resident parking spaces, along with visitor and commercial parking. There will also be 154 resident bicycle spaces and 40 visitor bicycle parks.

&nbsp;

Harridan is a family-owned developer and part of the Holmwood Highgate Group, with more than three decades of development activity across South East Queensland. Its portfolio spans residential, commercial and industrial property, with current residential projects including Riverbank on Byron in Bulimba, Esperance Residences in Carina and The Precinct at Kinross Road in Thornlands.

Wooloongabba has been popular for apartment developers, particularly since the announcement of the 2032 Summer Olympics games in Brisbane.

While there have been a lot of development applications, it has failed to materialize into real supply.&nbsp;

Sarazin has been the major player in the area. They are under construction at Murcia Residences, on the fringe of East Brisbane and Woolloongabba. They have just launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-stanley-residences-woolloongabba-8-trafalgar-street-woolloongabba-qld-4102">The Stanley Residences</a>, in Woolloongabba on Trafalagar Street. They also have Nuage coming soon on the nearby <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/nuage-woolloongabba-14-wellington-road-woolloongabba-qld-4102">Wellington Road</a>.

Cameron Kusher

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