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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Finding a house close to the city centre for under $500,000 is becoming increasingly difficult.</p>
<p>We look at the five suburbs in each capital city that are closest to the city centre and have a median house value under $500,000.  </p>
<p>Obviously the options and distance from the city centre vary greatly across each of the individual capital cities.</p>
<p class="text-align-center"><strong>Suburbs closest to a capital city GPO with a median house value of less than $500,000</strong></p>
<p class="text-align-center"><strong><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/22/2018-05-21-pulseimg1.jpg" alt=""></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong style="font-size: 12.16px;">Sydney </strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Bar Point is the suburb closest to the CBD with a median house value below $500,000. Sitting on the Central Coast as the crow flies it is 39.5 kilometres away from the CBD. There are only two suburbs within 50 kilometres of the CBD with a median house value below $500,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Melbourne</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Dallas is the suburb closest to the Melbourne CBD with a median house value of less than $500,000. Located 16.1 kilometres from the CBD, the typical house costs less than $450,000.  There are only two suburbs within 20 kilometres of the CBD with a median house values of less than $500,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Brisbane </strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Rocklea is the closest suburb to the city with a median house value below $500,000 and it is the only suburb below that price point within 10 kilometres of the CBD.  Once you move more than 10 kilometres from the CBD there are many options under $500,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Adelaide</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Hindmarsh is just 3.5 kilometres from the Adelaide CBD and has a median house value well below $500,000. The five suburbs listed are all less than 5 kilometres from the city centre which highlights the affordability of well-located housing in Adelaide relative to other capital cities.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Perth</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Glendalough which is just over 5 kilometres from the Perth CBD is the closest suburb to the city centre with a median house value below $500,000.  Relative to other cities there are quite a number of suburbs relatively close to the city centre with a median house value below $500,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Hobart </strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Montagu Bay which is 3 kilometres from Hobart’s city centre is the closest suburb with a median house value of less than $500,000. Hobart remains the nation’s most affordable capital city housing market and, despite strong value growth recently, still has many suburbs with a median below $500,000 quite close to the city centre.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Darwin</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Millner (8.1 kilometres from the CBD) is the suburb of Darwin closest to the city centre with a median house value under $500,000. Millner is also the only suburb with a median house value within 10 kilometres of the city centre.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Canberra</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>There is only one suburb in Canberra (Charnwood) that has a current median house value below $500,000.  This highlights the lack of affordable options in Canberra despite the fact that it is one of the smallest capital cities.</p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

The sub-$500,000 capital city house options: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>With the release of regional population and migration data for 2016-17, in this week’s Pulse we take a look at where people migrating away from capital cities are ending up moving to.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released regional population growth data for 2016-17. The data included information on internal migration showing where people were moving to. Using this data we can determine when people migrate away from a capital city where they are settling. For this we are looking at internal movements from the Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSA) to other SA4 regions across the country.</p>
<p>Of those people shifting out of Sydney, the most popular destinations were those directly adjacent to the city: Newcastle/Lake Macquarie and Illawarra. The Australian Capital Territory and Gold Coast also recorded more than 5,000 person arrivals from Sydney over the past year. Six of the top 10 regions for arrival of former Sydney residents were within New South Wales with the remaining for in ACT, Qld and Vic.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg1.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Sydney 2016-17" width="688" height="410"></p>
<p>The top five regions of arrival for former residents of Melbourne are all within Victoria and they are all directly adjacent to Melbourne. Latrobe-Gippsland (7,259) and Geelong (6,894) have attracted the greatest number of former Melbourne residents over the past year. Seven of the top 10 regions for arrivals of former Melbourne residents were in Victoria with the Gold and Sunshine Coasts in Qld and the ACT accounting for the other three regions in the top 10.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg2.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Melbourne 2016-17" width="659" height="395"></p>
<p><br>Seven of the top 10 regions for arrivals of departing residents of Brisbane are also located in Qld. The Gold and Sunshine Coasts record a much greater number of arrivals from Brisbane than any of the other regions on the list. Interestingly, the data also suggests that those migrating away from Brisbane to other areas of Qld tend to remain in the southern areas of the state. The three regions of top migration from Brisbane that aren’t within the state are Melbourne-Inner, Richmond-Tweed (directly adjacent to the Gold Coast) and the ACT.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseinmg3.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Brisbane 2016-17" width="653" height="399"></p>
<p><br>A reasonably large number of residents leaving Adelaide move to other regions of SA (noting there are only three regional SA4 areas in SA). The South-East region of the state is the most popular for departing Adelaide residents followed by Barossa-Yorke-Mid North. Melbourne is also a popular region for those departing Adelaide accounting for three of the top 10 regions with the ACT, Darwin, Gold Coast and Parramatta also making the list for regions outside of SA.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg4.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Adelaide 2016-17" width="674" height="397"></p>
<p><br>It is perhaps a little surprising that the top destinations for departing residents of Perth are within Western Australia and not interstate. The four regional SA4 regions of the state are also the top four destinations for those migrating out of Perth. Regions of Melbourne account for three of the remaining five locations outside of WA with Darwin, Gold Coast and ACT also making the list.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg5.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Perth 2016-17" width="661" height="402"></p>
<p><br>The most popular region for residents of Hobart that move out of the city is the surrounding South East region. In fact, the South East has seen double the number of migrants from Hobart than Launceston and the North East in second place. Note that there are only three SA4 regions of Tas outside of Greater Hobart and they are each listed. Outside of Tas, four regions are in Vic (each of which are in Melbourne), two regions are in Qld and the remaining region is the ACT.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg6.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Hobart 2016-17" width="664" height="398"></p>
<p><br>When residents of Darwin move away from the city, the greatest share of them move to other parts of the Territory outside of the capital city. Qld is a popular destination from Darwin residents moving away with five of the top 10 regions listed within the state and all except for Ipswich being in coastal locations. The top 10 list also includes one region each in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide as well as the ACT.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg7.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Darwin 2016-17" width="665" height="394"></p>
<p><br>Residents of Canberra that leave don’t have the option to move elsewhere within the territory however, a substantial number of them move to the Capital Region located adjacent in NSW. Seven of the 10 most popular regions for people from Canberra to migrate to are in NSW and 6 of them are in Sydney. Elsewhere in the top 10 Canberrans have migrated to two regions of Melbourne and the Gold Coast.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg8.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Canberra 2016-17" width="660" height="396"></p>
<p><br>The data shows that overall a significant number of those people that moved away from a capital city over the past financial year moved to an area adjacent to the capital city. Some of these are coastal/lifestyle markets while also being locations where housing is more affordable. The reality is the reasons for moving to these locations likely vary somewhat from one in which the residents are seeking more affordable housing or one in which residents are looking for a seachange/treechange. </p>
<p><em><strong>CAMERON KUSHER </strong>is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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Where do people migrating away from capital cities head?

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>EXPERT OBSERVATION</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Dwelling values, particularly those in Sydney and Melbourne, have been falling now for a number of months.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The latest ABS housing finance data indicates that the impact of these falls is now seemingly being felt in demand for new mortgages.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">While the value of lending fell over the month for owner occupiers and investors, the slowdown was much more substantial for investors, and the sharp month-on-month fall follows a downwards trend that has been evident across several rounds of macro prudential measures over the past few years.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>This isn’t really a surprise given so much of the lending to investors has been focused on Sydney and Melbourne and these cities are seeing values fall and yields at close to historic lows while investors are also incurring higher mortgage rates than owner occupiers, with additional rate premiums they use interest-only mortgages,.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig1.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In March 2018 there was $31.9 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was the lowest monthly value of commitments since August 2016.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Housing finance commitments were split between $21.0 billion to owner occupiers and $10.9 billion to investors.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Owner occupier commitments fell by -1.9% over the month to their lowest value since December 2017.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Investor finance commitments were down by -9.0% over the month, falling to their lowest value since January 2016.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The declining trend in investor housing finance commitments had slowed recently, however, the -9.0% monthly fall was the largest decline since September 2015 when they fell -10.4% over the month as lenders tightened in order to remain under the 10% APRA speed limit in annualised terms.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge. </a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig2.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The $21.0 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers was split between: $1.9 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.3 billion for the refinance of established dwellings and $11.6 billion for the purchase of established dwellings.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Each type of owner occupier commitment fell over the month however, year-on-year the value of lending for construction of dwellings was the only owner occupier finance segment that was lower.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig3.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The $10.9 billion worth of investor housing finance commitments in March 2018 was split between $1.0 billion for construction of new dwellings and $9.9 billion for established dwellings.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The value of lending for new construction was -18.9% lower over the month while the value of commitments for established dwellings was -7.9% lower. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig4.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Looking more broadly at finance commitments for new housing vs established housing shows a decline over the month for both.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The chart also shows how the established market, of which there are substantially more properties, dwarfs the new housing market.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Over the month there was $4.1 billion worth of commitments for new housing and $21.5 billion for existing housing (excluding refinances).<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Commitments for new housing fell by -1.9% over the month while commitments for existing stock were -6.8% lower.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A month’s worth of data doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend but it was quite a substantial fall in the value of housing finance commitments in March, particularly for investors.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>CoreLogic has believed for some time that investment in housing, particularly in the most expensive markets of Sydney and Melbourne, made little sense given stretched affordability, yield compression and little near-term value growth prospects with values currently declining.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Despite this, lending finance data (which will be updated next Tuesday) has continued to show investor activity which is well above average levels in NSW and Vic.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>We would expect that the coming release will show a further weakening of demand in these two states.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Over the coming months it is anticipated that mortgage activity, particularly from the investment sector will remain weak relative to recent years.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>With APRA recently announcing they will lift the 10% speed limit on investment credit growth from July 1, it will be important to watch the trend in investment credit flows. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There have been recent reports that lenders are starting to reduce the interest rate premiums on some interest only loans and investment loans, however any reduction in rates could be offset by stricter serviceability testing on borrower expenses and incomes as well as the prospect for renewed focus from lenders to reduce their exposure to high loan to income ratio loans as well as maintaining their reluctance to take on high loan to valuation ratio loans. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></span></span></p>
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Is a crunch in investor mortgage demand now starting to bite?

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>After many years of strong increases in dwelling values, the two largest housing markets, Sydney and Melbourne, have begun to see values fall over recent months.  While values are declining in both cities the speed of the declines vary greatly, both compared to one another and compared to other recent downturns in these housing markets.</p>
<p><img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogim1.png" alt=""> </p>
<p>Since values peaked back in July 2017, Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -3.9% over the following eight months.  If we look at the three previous downturns highlighted in the above chart, in the 2003-06 downturn values had fallen by -5.8% eight months in and went on to decline by -8.2% over 25 months before values started rising again.  In the 2008-09 downturn, values were -4.9% lower eight months in and went on to fall by -7.0% over 12 months.  The 2010-11 downturn saw values fall from their peak to their trough by -3.7% and after 8 months they had fallen by just -1.0%.</p>
<p><img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg2.png" alt=""></p>
<p> Dwelling values in Melbourne have not been falling as quickly or for as long as those in Sydney.  After the market peaked in November of last year, values have fallen by -0.7% over the four months to March 2018.  In 2003-04, values fell by a total of -3.0% over nine months and were -1.0% lower after four months of declines.  In 2008-09 values fell for 11 months, they had fallen by -3.9% over the first four months and ended up declining by -9.4%.  In the first four months of the 2010-12 period of value falls values were -2.2% lower before they ultimately fell by -8.4%.  Outside of these recent declines, values recorded a peak to trough fall of -8.3% between 1989 and 1992 with values falling by -2.5% over the first four months of this period.</p>
<p>Two other capital cities, Perth and Darwin, have been recording value falls for some time.  Although their declines are somewhat lengthier and different to recent falls in Sydney and Melbourne, it is valuable to analyse how these declines have evolved.</p>
<p><img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg3.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Perth dwelling values increased in March 2018 however, over the period from June 2014 to February 2018 values fell by -11.0%.  There is no guarantee that these declines are over as yet although the pace of these declines has steadied recently.  It is also interesting to note that during the most recent period of value falls the declines began much more moderately on a month-to-month bases than they did in 2006-07, 2008-09 and 2010-11, with the downturn stretching on much longer than any of these previous downturns.  In 2006-07, values fell by -3.7% in five months, in 2008-09 values were -11.0% lower over 13 months and in 2010-11 values declined by -9.1% over 19 months.</p>
<p><img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg4.png" alt=""></p>
<p> Darwin has only seen two recent period of market downturn, between October 2010 and September 2011 and from May 2014 to February 2018 (values rose over March 2018).  Again, it should be noted although values have risen over the month it doesn’t necessarily mean the downturn is over.  Over the 11 month downturn in 2010 and 2011, Darwin dwelling values fell by -7.9%.  The more recent downturn saw value declines start slower than those in 2010-11 with the downturn stretching for much longer.  As at February 2017 Darwin dwelling values have fallen by -22.3% from its previous peak in May 2014.</p>
<p>While these charts are interesting to consider they don’t provide any particular guidance as to how deep or elongated the current downturns in Sydney and Melbourne may be.  The weak housing market conditions in Perth and Darwin were largely a symptom of weak economic and demographic conditions, while the current downturns in Sydney and Melbourne are occurring against reasonably strong economic and demographic conditions; the slowdown is primarily being influenced by tighter credit conditions.  </p>
<p>What is interesting is that comparing to Perth and Darwin shows that just because they have started falling slower than other housing market downturns doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t end up as a deeper and longer downturn.  Of course the reverse is true as well but it will be interesting to see how deep and how long these current downturns persist for in Sydney and Melbourne and whether they lead to downturns in other cities and regions too.</p>
<p><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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Are all property downturns the same?

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The latest annual taxation data shows that state and local government coffers were boosted by $52.5 billion in 2016-17 due to taxes on property.</p>
<p>Each year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases taxation statistics and the latest data for 2016-17 was released recently. Over the 2016-17 financial year, state and local governments collected $52.5 billion in taxes from property with the figure climbing by 5.9% over the year. The taxation take from property is now more than double what it was in 2005-06.</p>
<p>Property taxes accounted for an historic high 52.8% of all tax revenue for state and local governments, up from 51.9% over the previous year.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/4/taxes1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/4/taxes1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Property taxes are broken down into two broad types, taxes on immovable property and taxes on financial and capital transactions. Taxes on immovable property include: land tax, municipal rates and other smaller taxes. Taxes on financial and capital transactions include predominately stamp duties as well as a few other smaller taxes. Taxes on immovable property were recorded at $29.185 billion over the year with the remaining $23.338 billion being taxes on financial and capital transactions. Over the year, taxes on immovable property increased by 7.9% while taxes on financial and capital transactions increased by 3.6%.</p>
<p>The table highlights the value of taxation revenue between 2006-07 and 2016-17 across each state and territory for land tax, municipal rates and stamp duty, which are the three largest sources of taxation revenue at the state and local government level. Probably the most notable change over the period has been the uplift in revenue, particularly from stamp duty, in NSW and Vic which reflects the strength of these housing markets over the past decade relative to other states and territories.</p>
<p>Between 2006-07 and 2016-17, stamp duty revenue in NSW has increased by 115% and it has increased by 114% in Vic. Revenue from land taxes have doubled over the period in Vic (153%), Qld (123%) and WA (125%) while revenue from municipal rates has doubled over the period in WA (125%) and ACT (184%).</p>
<p>In NSW, stamp duty revenue accounted for 49.1% of all property tax revenue in 2016-17 up from a recent low of 32.3% in 2008-09. It is a similar story in Vic where stamp duty revenue accounted for 42.6% of property tax revenue, up from a recent low of 36.5% in 2012-13. The cyclical nature of housing market transactions makes stamp duty a volatile source of revenue for state governments. Another way to look at this is in WA where the housing market has been weak for a number of years, stamp duty revenue accounted for just 28.5% of all property related tax revenue in 2016-17 down from a peak of 54.5% in 2007-08.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/4/taxes2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/4/taxes2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>From here, we are now seeing the combined effect of dwelling values and transaction numbers falling in Sydney and Melbourne along with a number of regional areas of NSW. Both the NSW and Vic governments have benefitted substantially from stamp duty revenue over recent years and it now appears set to fall over the coming years as the housing market weakens after a number of years of surging values.</p>
<p>With a volatile source of taxation revenue such as stamp duty that taxes the small proportion of individuals that transact property each year, moving away from a transactional tax to a tax on all physical properties seems to make a lot of sense. Especially considering transaction volumes remain well below their peak and stamp duty revenue growth is largely being driven by higher values rather than a greater number of transactions.</p>
<p>Of course the transition to a broad based land tax will be difficult and recent owners may have to be compensated however, a more guaranteed source of revenue for state and territory governments means that they can much better plan for the future rather than being reliant on dwelling values and transactions remaining high in order to boost revenue.</p>
<p>Over the second half of 2017 and into 2018 we have seen residential housing markets weaken with values and transactions falling, particularly in NSW and Vic. As a result we would expect over the current financial year that stamp duty revenue will fall and as a result so will total property taxation revenue.</p>
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Property tax revenue continues to climb: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>CoreLogic undertook analysis of the recent March 2018 quarter consumer price index (CPI) data which confirmed that in inflation adjusted terms, dwelling values are now lower in most capital cities.</span></p>
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<p><span>(Note: consumer price index (CPI), which measures inflation, increased by 0.4% over the March 2018 quarter to be 1.9% higher year-on-year. With the release of this data, it is also possible to look at inflation-adjusted or real changes in dwelling values across the capital cities. When looking at these figures, the inflation adjustment means that value growth is lower).</span></p>
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<p><span>The results showed that national dwelling values fell by -1.0% and </span>were -0.7% lower over the past 12 months, however, Hobart was the only capital city where real values increased over the quarter (+3.0%) with Sydney recording the largest quarterly fall (-2.2%).</p>
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<p><span>Over the past twelve months, only Melbourne (+3.4%), Hobart (+10.9%) and Canberra (+1.0%) have seen dwelling values outpace inflation. The largest decline over the year was recorded in Darwin (-9.3%) followed by Perth (-4.3%) and Sydney (-4.0%).</span></p>
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<p><span>Over the past decade, only Sydney (+43.3%) Melbourne (+38.7%) </span><span>and Hobart (+6.4%) have recorded ‘real’ growth in dwelling values.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/26/corelogic%20expert%20obs%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge</p>
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<p><span>These latest figures really highlight just how </span><span>narrow value growth has been in the national housing market over the past decade. It also highlights that low mortgage rates alone have not been the key driver of value growth - mortgage rates are </span>the same in Sydney as they are in Perth yet the former has recorded real growth of 43.3% while the latter has seen values fall by -25.0%.</p>
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<p><span>With dwelling values dropping over recent months, all capital cities, except Hobart, now have real values which sit below their previous peak. Nationally, values are -2.0% lower than their June 2017 peak and across the combined capital cities values are a slightly greater -</span><span>2.5% lower. Let’s take a look at how dwelling</span><span>values have tracked in inflation adjusted terms across each capital city.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/26/corelogic%20expert%20obs%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge</p>
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<p><span>Sydney </span><span>– </span><span>values are 5.3% lower than their June 2017 peak.</span></p>
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<p><span>Melbourne </span><span>– </span><span>after peaking in December 2017, values are currently -0.9% lower.</span></p>
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<p><span>Brisbane </span><span>– </span><span>values peaked back in March 2008 and are currently - 12.5% lower.</span></p>
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<p><span>Adelaide </span><span>– </span><span>values currently sit -7.4% below their June 2010 peak.</span></p>
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<p><span>Perth </span><span>– </span><span>the city has seen values fall by -28.5% from their peak in December 2006. dwelling </span><span>values.”</span></p>
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<p><span>Hobart </span><span>– </span><span>with values increasing a further 10.9% over the past year, it is the only city where real dwelling values are currently at their peak.</span></p>
<p><span>Darwin </span><span>– </span><span>real dwelling values peaked in March 2013 and have since fallen by -28.2%.</span></p>
<p><span>Canberra </span><span>– </span><span>dwelling values are -6.8% lower than their June 2010 peak.</span></p>
<p><span>Although the rate of inflation is quite slow and remains below the Reserve </span><span>Bank’s </span><span>target range of 2% to 3% annually, value growth is now broadly slower and is expected to remain that way over the coming quarters.</span></p>
<p><span>As </span><span>a result, when looking at inflation-adjusted dwelling values the expectation is that they will continue to fall over the coming quarters which means that as the cost of other items increase and inflation rises, relatively speaking, the cost of housing will reduce. </span><span>We’ve </span><span>seen this result occurring in most capital cities for a number of years but is a relatively recent development in Sydney and Melbourne.</span><span>”</span></p>
<p><span>The </span><span>flow-on effect of value falls remains to be seen, however, it may result in less expenditure elsewhere across the economy, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne which have had strong retail demand over recent years due to the wealth-effect of increasing dwelling values.</span><span>”</span></p>
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<p><span><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></span></p>
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Hobart the only capital city where real dwelling values sit at their peak

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Housing finance data from The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on first home buyer activity has generally shown that this segment of the market has been tracking at below average levels over recent years. </span></p>
<p><span>However, w</span><span>ith </span><span>each state and territory offering some level of incentive to first home buyers including grants and tax concessions, this segment is moving along quite nicely.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>Nationally, there were 8,782 housing finance commitments in February 2018. Although the volume of loans was down on levels in late 2017, it was 33.1% higher than the previous February.</span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/national.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>As </span><span>a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers accounted for 17.9% in February 2018 compared to 13.3% the previous year.</span><span><br></span></p>
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<p><span>Across </span><span>the individual states and territories, </span><span>we’re </span><span>seeing </span>several varying trends emerge – all likely due to activity across other buyer types in the market and how recently certain incentives have become available.</p>
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<p><span>Performance around the States:</span></p>
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<p><span>NSW: February 2018 saw 2,246 first home buyer housing finance commitments compared to 1,105 the previous year which is an increase of 103.3%. Since the end of June 2017, stamp duty concessions have become available and over the 8 months there have been 18,400 commitments compared to </span><span>10,857 over the previous 8 months. First home buyers now account for 15.1% of owner occupier finance commitments up </span><span>from 7.5% a year earlier. </span>The 15.1% is the greatest share 3,000 since October 2012.</p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/nsw.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>Vic: 2,619 finance commitments to first home buyers in </span>February 2018. The number of commitments was 38.6% higher than a year earlier. Vic also saw stamp duty exemptions go live on July 1 last year. From the end of June there have been 23,996 first home buyer commitments compared to 17,522 over the previous 8 months. First home buyers accounted for 18.3% of commitments compared to 13.9% a year earlier.</p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/vic.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>Qld: Over the month there were 1,839 first home buyer housing finance commitments. The number of commitments was only marginally higher from a year ago (+3.8%). First home buyers have been much more active over recent years than in NSW and Vic although, it should be noted investors have been much less active in the Qld market. First home buyers accounted for 19.3% of the market in February 2018 compared to 17.6% a year earlier. </span></p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/qld.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>SA: In February 2018 there were 443 first home buyer housing finance commitments. Although the number was lower than those recorded late last year, it was 17.8% higher than the previous February. Despite house values being the lowest of any mainland capital city, SA has the lowest share of first home buyer activity of any state or territory with 13.0% of owner occupier commitments going to first home buyers, a year ago they accounted for a 10.5% share so they have risen a little. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/SA.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>WA: There were 1,185 first home buyer finance commitments in February 2018 which was -0.1% fewer than the volume in</span><span> </span><span>FHB No. (LHS) </span><span>February 2017. WA is the only state or territory in which there </span><span>were fewer commitments to first home buyers than a year ago. </span><span>Despite the fall in volumes, first home buyers account for </span><span>25.0% of all owner occupier housing finance commitments </span><span>compared to 22.2% a year ago.</span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/WA.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>Tas: Over the month of February 2017 there were 137 first home buyer housing finance commitments which was 2.2% higher than the previous February. As a share of all owner occupier housing finance commitments, first home buyers account for 13.9%, up marginally from 13.8% a year ago. A common commentary is that a lot of younger people are moving to TAS to buy a home because they </span><span>can’t </span><span>afford one on the mainland. Although the number of first home buyers </span><span>rose over the year, they remain very low which suggests, at </span><span>least at this stage, first home buyers in TAS are not particularly </span><span>active. </span></p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/TAS.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>NT: While 52 first home buyer commitments in February 2018 is quite a low number, it is 26.8% higher than the previous year despite a sharp monthly fall. As a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers account for 19.4% compared to 14.7% a year earlier however, the share is currently trending lower. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/NT.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>ACT: The 261 first home buyer housing finance commitments </span>in February 2018 was a 177.7% increase in the number from the previous year. As a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers accounted for 25.6% in February 2018 which was the highest share since October 2009.</p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/ACT.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>The latest trends in first home buyer activity highlights the </span>sensitivities of this important market segment to both affordability constraints as well as market incentives such as first home buyer grants and stamp duty concessions.</p>
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<p>Despite overall slowing conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, the CoreLogic home value indices results show that the more affordable end of the housing markets in these cities as still seeing values rise and likely generated by first home buyer activity.</p>
<p>In other cities where affordability constraints are less severe, in the absence of any changes to first home buyer incentives, first time buyers generally remain more active relative to Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
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<p><span>With </span><span>demand from the investment segment expected to continue to be weaker than it has over recent years, this may afford more opportunities for first home buyers to enter the market.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>Outside </span><span>of the two largest cities, first home buyer volumes </span><span>may lift over the coming months due to ongoing low mortgage rates and relative affordability compared to Sydney and</span><span> </span><span>Melbourne. In fact, the outflow of people from NSW to other states and territories is continuing to rise which may result in </span><span>increases in first home buyers elsewhere.</span><span><br></span></p>
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<p><span><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></span></p>
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First home buyer levels tracking below average levels for years

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Over the March 2018 quarter, national data shows that dwelling values were down by 0.5%, however digging below the surface reveals the modest fall in values was confined to the most expensive quarter of the market.</p>
<p>The most affordable properties increased in value by +0.7% compared to a +0.3% increase across the middle market and a -1.1% decline across the most expensive properties.</p>
<p>Over the past year, dwelling values within the least expensive quartile increased by +0.7%, middle 50% values were +2.7% higher and top 25% values were +0.1% higher.</p>
<p>With value growth slowing, the trends of the past are being repeated with the most expensive properties experiencing the most rapid slowdown in value growth.</p>
<p>During the growth phase, it was these same properties that were also recording the highest rate of capital gain.</p>
<p>Of course trends vary substantially across the country.</p>
<p>The stratified hedonic index measures the change in values across three broad value based segments of the housing market: the most affordable 25% of properties, the middle 50% of properties and the most expensive 25% of properties. The Index provides valuable insight into how different segments of the market are performing.</p>
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<p>Sydney Over the past 12 months, the most expensive properties have recorded the largest value falls (-5.7%) followed by the middle market (-0.9%) and the most affordable market managed some moderate growth (+0.6%).</p>
<p>Regional NSW The trends were somewhat different outside of Sydney, with the strongest annual growth recorded in the middle 50% (+5.6%), followed by the low 25% (+4.1%) and top 25% (+3.7%).</p>
<p>Melbourne Values have increased over the past year across each segment of the market, with the most moderate increases recorded across the most expensive segment (+1.6%), then the middle 50% (+6.2%) while the most affordable suburbs have recorded double-digit growth (+11.3%).</p>
<p>Regional Vic Outside of Melbourne, the most expensive suburbs have recorded the strongest value growth (+4.7%) followed by the middle suburbs (+3.2%) and finally the most affordable suburbs where values were +2.4% higher.</p>
<p>Brisbane Annual growth has been quite moderate however, the middle valued suburbs recorded the strongest growth (+1.1%) followed by fairly similar growth rates across the most affordable suburbs (+0.9%) and the most expensive suburbs (+0.8%).</p>
<p>Regional Qld The most expensive suburbs were the only ones in which values increased over the past year (+2.4%), with values lower over the middle (-0.8%) and affordable (-3.5%) market segments.</p>
<p>Adelaide Each sector of the market recorded growth over the past year with the greatest increase across the middle market (+1.5%) with the affordable and expensive segments each recording growth of +0.8%.</p>
<p>Regional SA Values have declined across each market segment over the past year with the biggest falls across the most expensive suburbs (-4.2%) followed by the middle market (-1.2%) and the most affordable market (-0.2%).</p>
<p>Perth Values have fallen over the past year across each market sector with the largest declines across the most affordable properties (-4.4%) followed by the middle market (-3.2%) with the most expensive properties recording the most moderate value falls (-2.4%).</p>
<p>Regional WA The most expensive regional properties have recorded the most moderate value falls over the past year (-3.8%) while the middle (-6.4%) and least expensive (-7.5%) market segments have experienced much greater value falls.</p>
<p>Hobart The strongest performing market for value growth has recorded value increases across each segment, the greatest of which has occurred across the most affordable properties (+13.9%) followed by the middle market (+11.6%) and the most expensive market (+10.5%).</p>
<p>Regional Tas Values are climbing across each segment with the greatest annual growth recorded across the most affordable segment (+8.1%) followed by the middle market (+5.5%) and finally the most expensive properties (+2.7%).</p>
<p>Darwin The city has experience substantial value falls over the past year, the largest of which have occurred for the most expensive properties (-9.0%) followed by the middle market (-8.2%) and the most affordable suburbs (-6.8%).</p>
<p>Regional NT Values have increased over the past 12 months for the most affordable properties (+2.9%) while they have fallen across both the middle (-0.6%) and the most expensive properties (-0.7%).</p>
<p>Canberra The most affordable suburbs have recorded the slowest annual growth over the past year (+1.7%) followed by the most expensive properties (+1.9%) and the middle market (+2.6%).</p>
<p>The data highlights, that particularly within the housing markets which have recorded the strongest value growth over recent years (Sydney and Melbourne) that growth across the premium housing sector is slowing more rapidly than the other sectors.</p>
<p>This mirrors the experience in other recent housing market slowdowns/downturns whereby it is the most expensive suburbs which slow first and have experienced the larger downturns.</p>
<p>Hobart and regional Tasmania are seeing values grow at a rapid pace and it is interesting to note that the growth in the market is being led by more affordable properties with the relatively expensive housing lagging in terms of growth.</p>
<p>In Perth and Darwin where the housing markets have been in a downturn for many years different trends are emerging. Perth is showing more signs of a recovery than Darwin and it appears the improvement in Perth is being driven by premium housing.</p>
<p>By comparison, in Darwin where the market shows few signs of improvement the most expensive properties are showing the greatest weakness.</p>
<p>The headline figures tell a broad story about the housing markets performance while the stratified hedonic index highlights the importance of also taking a more micro look at the market.</p>
<p>The data shows that even within cities there are very different trends at play between the affordable and expensive properties which is important to understand.</p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/12/corelogic%201%20.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/12/corelogic%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/12/corelogic%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/12/corelogic%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em><strong>Cameron Kusher</strong> heads research at CoreLogic.</em></p>
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Expensive properties' price growth slowing the most: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>Research shows that over the 12 </span>months to December 2017, 16.1% of all houses and 9.5% of all units sold nationally transacted with a price tag excess of $1 million.</p>
<p>By comparison, 12 months earlier 14.8% of houses and 8.1% of units sold for more than $1 million.</p>
<p>At 16.1% of all house sales and 9.5%all unit sales in excess of $1 million, more houses and units sold for more than $1 million than sold for less than $200,000.</p>
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<p>Across the combined capital cities, 23.8% of all houses and 11.6% of all units sold over the year sold for more than $1 million.</p>
<p>The number sold for more than $1 million was up from 21.7% and 9.8% respectively a year earlier.</p>
<p>Five years ago just 9.8% of all houses and 3.9% of all units sold for more than $1 million. A greater number of houses sold for more than $1 million over the past year than sold for under $400,000. </p>
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<p><span>Across the combined regional markets, 4.6% of houses </span>and 3.8% of units sold over the year transacted at or above $1 million. The share of million dollar sales was up over the year from 3.8% for houses and 3.6% for units.</p>
<p>Five years earlier, 1.7% of houses and 2.2% of units sold throughout the year sold for $1 million. While in the combined capital cities the share of $1 million sales is significant it remains relatively small in those areas outside of the capitals. </p>
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<p><span>Sydney is the region that recorded the highest proportion </span>of sales of at least $1 million throughout 2017. Over the year, 49.3% of all houses sold were at least $1 million which was up from 45.4% at the end of 2016 and 18.8% at the end of 2012.</p>
<p>Over the 2012 calendar year, 5.4%  of all Sydney units sold over the year were at least $1 million, by 2016 the share had increased to 18.7% and 25% then by the end of 2017 it was up to 22.3%. More recently, values have begun to fall in Sydney, particularly for higher value properties, so there is a possibility in2018 Sydney will see a decline in the share of sales of at least $1 million. The share of $1 million plus sales in Melbourne has climbed significantly over recent years.</p>
<p>Throughout 2017, 28.3% of all houses and 8.3% of all units purchased were at least $1 million. The share of $1 million sales was up from 23.7% for houses and 7.2% of units a year earlier. The share of $1 million sales has risen substantially from five years ago when 9.7% of houses and 3.5% of units sold for at least $1 million. </p>
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<p><span>Although </span><span>value growth </span>has been fairly moderate in Brisbane over recent years, the share of $1 million sales has continued to climb. Throughout 2017, 8.3% of all houses and 3.4% of all units sold, transacted for at least $1 million. A year earlier, 7.5% of all houses and 2.8% of all units sold for at least $1 million and five years earlier just 3.6% and 2.1% of houses and units sold for at least $1 million.” </p>
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<p>Dwelling values in Adelaide have increased by just 2.2% over the past year, however, the share of stock selling for $1 million or more has continued to climb. Over the  2017 calendar year, 5.5% of all houses sold for at least  $1 million with the share climbing from 5.0% a year earlier and 2.8% five years previous.</p>
<p>For units, 1.6% of all sales were at least $1 million 2 years ago compared to 1.7% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017. Over the past year there were more Adelaide houses sold for at least $1 million than there were sold for less than $200,000. </p>
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<p><span>Perth has been recording falls in values since 2014 and </span>the most expensive properties have recorded falls more substantial than the city wide average. The share of sales of $1 million or more has fallen over the year for house(10.4% to 10.3%) and units (4.5% to 3.2%). Although the share of sales of $1 million property has declined over the year it remains higher than it was five years ago for houses but lower for units when those sales accounted for 7.2% and 3.4% of all sales respectively. </p>
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<p>As the nation’s most affordable capital city housing market, Hobart has far fewer sales of $1 million properties than other capital cities. Notwithstanding, values of all capital cities and has seen a fairly significant lift in the share of $1 million sales over the past year.</p>
<p>Over the 2017 calendar year, 2.8% of all houses sold transacted for $1 million or more, up from 2.3% a year earlier and 1.4% five years earlier. The share of $1 million unit sales was steady over the year at 0.9% of all sales and down from five years earlier when 1.3% of all sales were at least $1 million. </p>
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<p><span>Darwin has been the </span><span>nation’s </span><span>weakest performing capital </span>city housing market for a number of years. At the end of February 2018, dwelling values were -22.3% lower than their peak. Predictably, such substantial value falls have led to a significant decline in $1 million sales.</p>
<p>Over the 2017 calendar year, 3.1% of all houses sold were at least $1 million compared to 4.1% a year earlier but a lower 2.4% five years earlier. 1.3% of all unit sales in 2017 were at least $1 million compared to 2.3% a year earlier and 1.7% five years earlier. </p>
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<p><span>Dwelling values in Canberra have increased by 3.2% </span>over the 12 months to February 2018 and as aresultthe share of sales of properties worth $1 million or more has also risen. At the end of 2017, 12.6% of all house sales throughout the year had been at least $1 million, up from 10.4% a year earlier and 4.8% five years earlier. For units, 2.5% of all sales were at least $1 million, up from  2.3% a year earlier and 1.3% five years earlier.</p>
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<p><span>The latest data is showing that a number of capital cities have now recorded falls in values, in particular the most expensive city, Sydney. </span></p>
<p><span>Additional data also indicates that values are falling by the greatest amount across the premium sector of the housing market. Should these declines continue, it may result in a decline in the share of sales of properties at or in excess of $1 million throughout 2018. </span></p>
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<p><span><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em> </span></p>
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Nearly 25 percent of capital city houses sell for over $1 million in 2017

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<p>The latest data from the Reserve Bank (RBA) shows that the expansion of housing credit is occurring at a historically sluggish pace as tighter credit policies and slower housing market conditions dampen investment participation in the housing market.</p>
<p>The RBA releases its financial aggregates on the last working day of each month and it provides valuable insight into outstanding credit to all mortgage lenders in Australia.  </p>
<p>The latest data shows that in January 2018, housing credit expanded by 0.5% which was actually greater than the 0.4% expansion the previous month.  Splitting the data by owner occupier and investors, owner occupier credit expanded by 0.6% compared to 0.2% for investors.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-05-pulseimg1.png" alt="CoreLogic monthly change in housing credit owner occupier vs investor" width="655" height="297"></p>
<p>The first chart shows the monthly change in housing credit for owner occupiers and investors, while owner occupier credit expansion is tracked fairly steady, there is a clear slowing of credit expansion to investors currently.  The slowdown is being fueled by switching of investor loans to owner occupier and macroprudential policies which limit credit growth to investors.  </p>
<p>The macroprudential policies have come in two waves, the first wave limited lenders from growing investor credit by more than 10%pa while the second wave limited new interest-only lending (which is largely utilised by investors) to 30% of new originations.  The first chart suggests that the first wave actually tightened investor credit growth more than the second wave, highlighted by the fact that in December 2015 investor credit recorded no change while the slowest rate of expansion since the second wave of policies has been 0.2% which is not as severe of a slowdown as that experienced following the first wave of macroprudential policies.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-05-pulseimg2.png" alt="CoreLogic Annual change in housing credit, owner occupier vs investor" width="658" height="303"></p>
<p>The second chart focusses on the annual change in housing credit and shows the benchmark for the 10% speed limit for investor lending which was introduced by APRA in late 2014. This chart also highlights a relatively steady expansion in owner occupier credit but a slowing expansion of investor credit.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-05-pulseimg3.png" alt="CoreLogic housing's share of total outstanding credit to lenders" width="666" height="271"></p>
<p>At the end of January 2018, the total value of outstanding housing credit was $1.731 trillion which was an historic high.  As a share of the total value of credit outstanding to lenders, residential housing accounts for a record-high 62.0%. The data shows a clear preference for lending for residential housing over recent years especially when you consider at the end of 2007, just prior to the GFC, housing accounted for a much lower 51.9% of total outstanding credit.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-05-pulseimg4.png" alt="CoreLogic share of total outstanding housing credit to investors" width="665" height="292"></p>
<p>The fourth chart highlights outstanding investor credit as a share of total outstanding housing credit.  In January 2018, outstanding credit to investors was recorded at $587.9 billion which represented 34.0% of total housing credit.  Although investors make up a significant proportion of outstanding credit, as a share investor credit has been falling since its peak of 38.7% in June 2015.  In fact, the share of credit to investors is at its lowest level since May 2013.</p>
<p>Based on the most recent data from APRA, Australian lenders have comprehensively met the macroprudential targets for investment credit growth and interest only lending.  Considering annual investment credit growth, at 3.0%, continues to track well under the 10% speed limit and interest only lending  is also well under the 30% benchmark, it’s possible investment credit growth could lift over coming months.</p>
<p>Investors do face other headwinds though, with capital gains cooling, yields tracking well below average and depreciation benefits less appealing since the federal government budget last year.</p>
<p>Overall, the expansion in housing credit is now largely being driven by the owner occupier segment of the market.  With mortgage rates expected to rise some time over the next two years and dwelling values falling, it will be interesting to see how long the steady expansion in owner occupier credit can last.</p>
<p><em><strong>Cameron Kusher</strong> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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Overall housing credit growth lower after investor loan drop: Cameron Kusher

<p data-end="256" data-start="0"><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sunland-group">Sunland Group</a> has officially lodged plans for its first Gold Coast apartment project since the departure of the Abedian family from the company three years ago, unveiling a new high-rise proposal for a prominent Broadbeach corner site on Old Burleigh Road.</p>

<p data-end="446" data-start="258">The application was submitted by an entity directed by Tom Jamieson, stepson of longtime Sunland leader Soheil Abedian, and Riaz Rezvanipour, brother-in-law of Sahba Abedian, Soheil’s son.</p>

<p data-end="645" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="448">Sunland acquired the 1,283 sqm site on the corner of Old Burleigh Road and Armrick Avenue for $9.5 million late last year and is now seeking approval for a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/99-101-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">42-storey tower with 81 apartments</a>.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fea2946d-90ee-4cfc-babe-2a8ad5db2cb6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers.png?VersionId=BV0fihJw31nDIQ8ozY_h3GbS8mxDyhnm" /></p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/contreras-earl-architecture">Contreras Earl Architecture</a>, the proposed tower at 99-101 Old Burleigh Road would deliver a predominantly larger-format apartment mix aimed at the owner-occupier market. Plans include 17 two-bedroom apartments, 55 three-bedroom apartments, and nine four-bedroom residences across 35 residential levels.</p>

<p>The development also incorporates three basement levels, four podium parking levels, two levels of communal recreation facilities, and rooftop plant and equipment. A total of 189 car spaces are proposed, significantly exceeding the 90 spaces required under the planning scheme.</p>

<p>The architecture adopts a sculpted, curvilinear form, with deep wraparound balconies and integrated landscaping intended to soften the tower’s vertical expression. The planning report states the building’s “slender footprint/form provides a complimentary yet varied built form within the local streetscape” and contributes to “a varied, yet ordered skyline.”</p>

<p data-end="626" data-start="350">Contreras Earl noted in its Architectural Statement that from the early stages, the project addressed a fundamental challenge: how to accommodate the required residential yield while avoiding the conventional model of a tower sitting on a rigid, fully resolved parking podium.</p>

<p data-end="928" data-start="628">“The most direct response would have been to consolidate parking into a singular, flat podium and extrude a repetitive tower above,” the statement said. “While efficient, this approach would result in a consolidated built form with limited engagement with the surrounding landscape and public realm.”</p>

<p data-end="1147" data-start="930">Instead, the conventional podium model was “deliberately rejected”. The architects described the base of the building as “a landscaped architectural condition where structure, planting and circulation are integrated”.</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149">“Rather than presenting a continuous built mass, the base of the building is articulated through a series of concrete planter elements that organise the podium into a fragmented system,” the statement said. “This approach reduces the perceived bulk of the lower levels while establishing a more permeable interface with the streetscape and adjacent open space.”</p>

<p data-end="1510" data-start="1149"><img alt="Sunland" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="923fad8d-c960-4527-8fbe-975cf1ddf88d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%2010.32.03%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=pngwb0hYOIUpq9vDw6F2EsOiVuHF3DiX" /></p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The site sits within the High Density Residential Zone and inside the City of Gold Coast’s unrestricted “HX” building height area, where the planning framework anticipates intensified residential development tied to the expanding light rail corridor. The planning report notes the area is undergoing “transition toward more intense development forms” given its proximity to Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise, and high-frequency public transport infrastructure.</p>

<p>Positioned directly opposite Broadbeach Park and within walking distance of Florida Gardens light rail station, the development would sit among a rapidly evolving stretch of Old Burleigh Road that has become one of the Gold Coast’s most active apartment development corridors.</p>

<p>The application joins a growing pipeline of luxury residential projects reshaping Broadbeach, including nearby developments by 5Point Projects, Polycell, and Graya.</p>

<p>The planning report argues the project contributes toward the Gold Coast’s long-term housing targets under the South East Queensland Regional Plan, which forecasts the need for more than 100,000 additional high-rise dwellings across the city by 2046.</p>

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<p data-end="305" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="" data-start="0">The Abedian family departed Sunland Group in late 2023, ending a four-decade association with the company, and subsequently established the private development firm Abedian &amp; Co. The group is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/greenmount-residences-cnr-hill-street-and-marine-parade-coolangatta-qld-4225">Greenmount Residences</a> at Rainbow Bay and recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/18-mary-avenue-14-18-mary-avenue-broadbeach-qld-4218">18 Mary Avenue</a> in Broadbeach.</p>
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Joel Robinson

First look: Sunland Group returns to Broadbeach new apartment market with new Old Burleigh Road tower plans

<p style="text-align:start">The Minns Labor Government has established the new Bays West Delivery Authority to lead the development&nbsp;of the Bays West Precinct and Blackwattle Bay Precinct.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Authority is charged with creating Sydney’s newest precinct, a thriving, connected, sustainable hub with White Bay Power Station as its cultural heart. Its vision is to build on the area’s natural, cultural and industrial history to shape a vibrant new neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The precinct will deliver up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes. Combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years, while retaining important deep-water facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.</p>

<p>Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.</p>

<p>The Bays West Delivery Authority,&nbsp;an agency of the Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure, will report to the NSW Minister for Lands and Property who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo.</p>

<p>As part of the broader Bays West transformation, the Minns Government recently announced that a proposal from Lendlease to redevelop part of the Bays West Precinct has progressed to Stage 2 of the NSW Government’s unsolicited proposals process.</p>

<p><img alt="Sydney" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2ed71eb9-d8e8-4fa7-b9d1-de4531dcf2f3" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-25%20at%209.42.31%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=IDryFIbped9SNDg72LEN_EecvhUsOPvp" /></p>

<p>The Minns Labor Government has also confirmed the Bays West precinct will have a new suburb name. This will be the first major suburb built in close proximity to Sydney’s CBD in decades and will encompass the area currently being referred to as Bays West, including Glebe Island and the White Bay Power Station. Served by a new Metro station just five minutes from the CBD, it will become one of the most populous suburbs in the Inner West and one of Sydney’s premier cultural destinations.</p>

<p>An early works program is taking shape, which&nbsp;includes the first stages of an international design competition.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The aim of the Bays West&nbsp;International&nbsp;Design Competition is to&nbsp;ensure design excellence is embedded in the project from the start. The competition will deliver an&nbsp;urban framework that defines the character, ambition and long-term identity of&nbsp;this&nbsp;former industrial precinct as it transitions to a vibrant, inclusive and sustainable residential&nbsp;neighbourhood.</p>

<p>The competition will be led by the Bays West Delivery Authority in partnership with Government Architect NSW.&nbsp;</p>

<p>It will launch with an invitation for a global Expressions of Interest, before moving to an invitation-only stage that will be assessed by a panel that&nbsp;will provide advice to Cabinet who will select a winner.</p>

<p>Premier of NSW, Chris Minns said the establishment of the new Authority is the first step in transforming the Bays West precinct into a vibrant, livable suburb minutes from the Sydney CBD and two stops from Hunter St Station on the Metro West line.</p>

<p>“The Authority will deliver well-located homes close to the heart of the city and integrate the new precinct with Blackwattle Bay and the new Sydney Fish Market.</p>

<p>“This is a generational opportunity to build a new suburb on the city’s edge and open the harbour foreshore to the public for the first time in a century.”&nbsp;</p>

<p>Minister for Lands and Property Steve Kamper said the new Bays West Delivery Authority established by the Minns Government will turbocharge the development of Sydney’s newest suburb.</p>

<p>“The Authority is working at a record pace to deliver an international design competition, planning pathways and a financial model so that this development benefits Sydney with well-designed homes in a central location, close to public transport, jobs, entertainment and essential services.</p>

<p>“If we want Sydney to stay liveable and affordable, we need to be bold about using underutilised government-owned land to deliver homes for the future while making sure essential working harbour functions can be accommodated.”</p>


Bays West Delivery Authority established to "turbocharge" Sydney’s newest suburb

<p>Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.</p>

<p>A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.</p>

<p>Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.</p>

<p>“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.</p>

<p>Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.</p>

<p>“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.</p>

<p>The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.</p>

<p>It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.</p>

<p>The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.</p>

<p>One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.</p>

<p>Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.</p>

<p>The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.</p>

<p>Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.</p>

<p>Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.</p>

<p>Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.</p>

<p>“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”</p>

<p>Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.</p>

<p>Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.</p>

<p>Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.</p>


400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

<p>Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p>The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.</p>

<p>Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" /></p>

<p>“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.</p>

<p>The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”</p>

<p>The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" /></p>

<p>The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.</p>

<p>According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.</p>

<p>“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.</p>

<p>A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.</p>

<p>Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.</p>

<p><img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" /></p>

<p>All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.</p>

<p>The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.</p>


Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

<p>Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.</p>

<p>The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.</p>

<p>Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" /></p>

<p>Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.</p>

<p>The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.</p>

<p>"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.</p>

<p>The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.</p>

<p>The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.</p>

<p><img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" /></p>

<p>Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.</p>

<p>Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.</p>


Cameron Kusher

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