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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Finding a house close to the city centre for under $500,000 is becoming increasingly difficult.</p>
<p>We look at the five suburbs in each capital city that are closest to the city centre and have a median house value under $500,000.  </p>
<p>Obviously the options and distance from the city centre vary greatly across each of the individual capital cities.</p>
<p class="text-align-center"><strong>Suburbs closest to a capital city GPO with a median house value of less than $500,000</strong></p>
<p class="text-align-center"><strong><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/22/2018-05-21-pulseimg1.jpg" alt=""></strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong style="font-size: 12.16px;">Sydney </strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Bar Point is the suburb closest to the CBD with a median house value below $500,000. Sitting on the Central Coast as the crow flies it is 39.5 kilometres away from the CBD. There are only two suburbs within 50 kilometres of the CBD with a median house value below $500,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Melbourne</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Dallas is the suburb closest to the Melbourne CBD with a median house value of less than $500,000. Located 16.1 kilometres from the CBD, the typical house costs less than $450,000.  There are only two suburbs within 20 kilometres of the CBD with a median house values of less than $500,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Brisbane </strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Rocklea is the closest suburb to the city with a median house value below $500,000 and it is the only suburb below that price point within 10 kilometres of the CBD.  Once you move more than 10 kilometres from the CBD there are many options under $500,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Adelaide</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Hindmarsh is just 3.5 kilometres from the Adelaide CBD and has a median house value well below $500,000. The five suburbs listed are all less than 5 kilometres from the city centre which highlights the affordability of well-located housing in Adelaide relative to other capital cities.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Perth</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Glendalough which is just over 5 kilometres from the Perth CBD is the closest suburb to the city centre with a median house value below $500,000.  Relative to other cities there are quite a number of suburbs relatively close to the city centre with a median house value below $500,000.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Hobart </strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Montagu Bay which is 3 kilometres from Hobart’s city centre is the closest suburb with a median house value of less than $500,000. Hobart remains the nation’s most affordable capital city housing market and, despite strong value growth recently, still has many suburbs with a median below $500,000 quite close to the city centre.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Darwin</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>Millner (8.1 kilometres from the CBD) is the suburb of Darwin closest to the city centre with a median house value under $500,000. Millner is also the only suburb with a median house value within 10 kilometres of the city centre.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Canberra</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>There is only one suburb in Canberra (Charnwood) that has a current median house value below $500,000.  This highlights the lack of affordable options in Canberra despite the fact that it is one of the smallest capital cities.</p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

The sub-$500,000 capital city house options: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>With the release of regional population and migration data for 2016-17, in this week’s Pulse we take a look at where people migrating away from capital cities are ending up moving to.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently released regional population growth data for 2016-17. The data included information on internal migration showing where people were moving to. Using this data we can determine when people migrate away from a capital city where they are settling. For this we are looking at internal movements from the Greater Capital City Statistical Areas (GCCSA) to other SA4 regions across the country.</p>
<p>Of those people shifting out of Sydney, the most popular destinations were those directly adjacent to the city: Newcastle/Lake Macquarie and Illawarra. The Australian Capital Territory and Gold Coast also recorded more than 5,000 person arrivals from Sydney over the past year. Six of the top 10 regions for arrival of former Sydney residents were within New South Wales with the remaining for in ACT, Qld and Vic.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg1.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Sydney 2016-17" width="688" height="410"></p>
<p>The top five regions of arrival for former residents of Melbourne are all within Victoria and they are all directly adjacent to Melbourne. Latrobe-Gippsland (7,259) and Geelong (6,894) have attracted the greatest number of former Melbourne residents over the past year. Seven of the top 10 regions for arrivals of former Melbourne residents were in Victoria with the Gold and Sunshine Coasts in Qld and the ACT accounting for the other three regions in the top 10.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg2.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Melbourne 2016-17" width="659" height="395"></p>
<p><br>Seven of the top 10 regions for arrivals of departing residents of Brisbane are also located in Qld. The Gold and Sunshine Coasts record a much greater number of arrivals from Brisbane than any of the other regions on the list. Interestingly, the data also suggests that those migrating away from Brisbane to other areas of Qld tend to remain in the southern areas of the state. The three regions of top migration from Brisbane that aren’t within the state are Melbourne-Inner, Richmond-Tweed (directly adjacent to the Gold Coast) and the ACT.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseinmg3.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Brisbane 2016-17" width="653" height="399"></p>
<p><br>A reasonably large number of residents leaving Adelaide move to other regions of SA (noting there are only three regional SA4 areas in SA). The South-East region of the state is the most popular for departing Adelaide residents followed by Barossa-Yorke-Mid North. Melbourne is also a popular region for those departing Adelaide accounting for three of the top 10 regions with the ACT, Darwin, Gold Coast and Parramatta also making the list for regions outside of SA.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg4.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Adelaide 2016-17" width="674" height="397"></p>
<p><br>It is perhaps a little surprising that the top destinations for departing residents of Perth are within Western Australia and not interstate. The four regional SA4 regions of the state are also the top four destinations for those migrating out of Perth. Regions of Melbourne account for three of the remaining five locations outside of WA with Darwin, Gold Coast and ACT also making the list.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg5.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Perth 2016-17" width="661" height="402"></p>
<p><br>The most popular region for residents of Hobart that move out of the city is the surrounding South East region. In fact, the South East has seen double the number of migrants from Hobart than Launceston and the North East in second place. Note that there are only three SA4 regions of Tas outside of Greater Hobart and they are each listed. Outside of Tas, four regions are in Vic (each of which are in Melbourne), two regions are in Qld and the remaining region is the ACT.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg6.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Hobart 2016-17" width="664" height="398"></p>
<p><br>When residents of Darwin move away from the city, the greatest share of them move to other parts of the Territory outside of the capital city. Qld is a popular destination from Darwin residents moving away with five of the top 10 regions listed within the state and all except for Ipswich being in coastal locations. The top 10 list also includes one region each in Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide as well as the ACT.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg7.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Darwin 2016-17" width="665" height="394"></p>
<p><br>Residents of Canberra that leave don’t have the option to move elsewhere within the territory however, a substantial number of them move to the Capital Region located adjacent in NSW. Seven of the 10 most popular regions for people from Canberra to migrate to are in NSW and 6 of them are in Sydney. Elsewhere in the top 10 Canberrans have migrated to two regions of Melbourne and the Gold Coast.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-05/2018-05-14-pulseimg8.jpg" alt="Top 10 regions of arrival from Canberra 2016-17" width="660" height="396"></p>
<p><br>The data shows that overall a significant number of those people that moved away from a capital city over the past financial year moved to an area adjacent to the capital city. Some of these are coastal/lifestyle markets while also being locations where housing is more affordable. The reality is the reasons for moving to these locations likely vary somewhat from one in which the residents are seeking more affordable housing or one in which residents are looking for a seachange/treechange. </p>
<p><em><strong>CAMERON KUSHER </strong>is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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Where do people migrating away from capital cities head?

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>EXPERT OBSERVATION</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Dwelling values, particularly those in Sydney and Melbourne, have been falling now for a number of months.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The latest ABS housing finance data indicates that the impact of these falls is now seemingly being felt in demand for new mortgages.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">While the value of lending fell over the month for owner occupiers and investors, the slowdown was much more substantial for investors, and the sharp month-on-month fall follows a downwards trend that has been evident across several rounds of macro prudential measures over the past few years.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>This isn’t really a surprise given so much of the lending to investors has been focused on Sydney and Melbourne and these cities are seeing values fall and yields at close to historic lows while investors are also incurring higher mortgage rates than owner occupiers, with additional rate premiums they use interest-only mortgages,.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig1.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In March 2018 there was $31.9 billion worth of housing finance commitments which was the lowest monthly value of commitments since August 2016.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Housing finance commitments were split between $21.0 billion to owner occupiers and $10.9 billion to investors.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Owner occupier commitments fell by -1.9% over the month to their lowest value since December 2017.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Investor finance commitments were down by -9.0% over the month, falling to their lowest value since January 2016.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The declining trend in investor housing finance commitments had slowed recently, however, the -9.0% monthly fall was the largest decline since September 2015 when they fell -10.4% over the month as lenders tightened in order to remain under the 10% APRA speed limit in annualised terms.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge. </a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig2.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The $21.0 billion worth of finance commitments to owner occupiers was split between: $1.9 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion for purchase of new dwellings, $6.3 billion for the refinance of established dwellings and $11.6 billion for the purchase of established dwellings.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Each type of owner occupier commitment fell over the month however, year-on-year the value of lending for construction of dwellings was the only owner occupier finance segment that was lower.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig3.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">The $10.9 billion worth of investor housing finance commitments in March 2018 was split between $1.0 billion for construction of new dwellings and $9.9 billion for established dwellings.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The value of lending for new construction was -18.9% lower over the month while the value of commitments for established dwellings was -7.9% lower. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/11/fig4.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/11/fig4.jpg" alt=""></span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Looking more broadly at finance commitments for new housing vs established housing shows a decline over the month for both.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>The chart also shows how the established market, of which there are substantially more properties, dwarfs the new housing market.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Over the month there was $4.1 billion worth of commitments for new housing and $21.5 billion for existing housing (excluding refinances).<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Commitments for new housing fell by -1.9% over the month while commitments for existing stock were -6.8% lower.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">A month’s worth of data doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend but it was quite a substantial fall in the value of housing finance commitments in March, particularly for investors.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>CoreLogic has believed for some time that investment in housing, particularly in the most expensive markets of Sydney and Melbourne, made little sense given stretched affordability, yield compression and little near-term value growth prospects with values currently declining.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Despite this, lending finance data (which will be updated next Tuesday) has continued to show investor activity which is well above average levels in NSW and Vic.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>We would expect that the coming release will show a further weakening of demand in these two states.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Over the coming months it is anticipated that mortgage activity, particularly from the investment sector will remain weak relative to recent years.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>With APRA recently announcing they will lift the 10% speed limit on investment credit growth from July 1, it will be important to watch the trend in investment credit flows. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">There have been recent reports that lenders are starting to reduce the interest rate premiums on some interest only loans and investment loans, however any reduction in rates could be offset by stricter serviceability testing on borrower expenses and incomes as well as the prospect for renewed focus from lenders to reduce their exposure to high loan to income ratio loans as well as maintaining their reluctance to take on high loan to valuation ratio loans. <span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></span></span></p>
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Is a crunch in investor mortgage demand now starting to bite?

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>After many years of strong increases in dwelling values, the two largest housing markets, Sydney and Melbourne, have begun to see values fall over recent months.  While values are declining in both cities the speed of the declines vary greatly, both compared to one another and compared to other recent downturns in these housing markets.</p>
<p><img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogim1.png" alt=""> </p>
<p>Since values peaked back in July 2017, Sydney dwelling values have fallen by -3.9% over the following eight months.  If we look at the three previous downturns highlighted in the above chart, in the 2003-06 downturn values had fallen by -5.8% eight months in and went on to decline by -8.2% over 25 months before values started rising again.  In the 2008-09 downturn, values were -4.9% lower eight months in and went on to fall by -7.0% over 12 months.  The 2010-11 downturn saw values fall from their peak to their trough by -3.7% and after 8 months they had fallen by just -1.0%.</p>
<p><img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg2.png" alt=""></p>
<p> Dwelling values in Melbourne have not been falling as quickly or for as long as those in Sydney.  After the market peaked in November of last year, values have fallen by -0.7% over the four months to March 2018.  In 2003-04, values fell by a total of -3.0% over nine months and were -1.0% lower after four months of declines.  In 2008-09 values fell for 11 months, they had fallen by -3.9% over the first four months and ended up declining by -9.4%.  In the first four months of the 2010-12 period of value falls values were -2.2% lower before they ultimately fell by -8.4%.  Outside of these recent declines, values recorded a peak to trough fall of -8.3% between 1989 and 1992 with values falling by -2.5% over the first four months of this period.</p>
<p>Two other capital cities, Perth and Darwin, have been recording value falls for some time.  Although their declines are somewhat lengthier and different to recent falls in Sydney and Melbourne, it is valuable to analyse how these declines have evolved.</p>
<p><img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg3.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Perth dwelling values increased in March 2018 however, over the period from June 2014 to February 2018 values fell by -11.0%.  There is no guarantee that these declines are over as yet although the pace of these declines has steadied recently.  It is also interesting to note that during the most recent period of value falls the declines began much more moderately on a month-to-month bases than they did in 2006-07, 2008-09 and 2010-11, with the downturn stretching on much longer than any of these previous downturns.  In 2006-07, values fell by -3.7% in five months, in 2008-09 values were -11.0% lower over 13 months and in 2010-11 values declined by -9.1% over 19 months.</p>
<p><img src="https://corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/media_crop/public/2018-04/2018-04-23-blogimg4.png" alt=""></p>
<p> Darwin has only seen two recent period of market downturn, between October 2010 and September 2011 and from May 2014 to February 2018 (values rose over March 2018).  Again, it should be noted although values have risen over the month it doesn’t necessarily mean the downturn is over.  Over the 11 month downturn in 2010 and 2011, Darwin dwelling values fell by -7.9%.  The more recent downturn saw value declines start slower than those in 2010-11 with the downturn stretching for much longer.  As at February 2017 Darwin dwelling values have fallen by -22.3% from its previous peak in May 2014.</p>
<p>While these charts are interesting to consider they don’t provide any particular guidance as to how deep or elongated the current downturns in Sydney and Melbourne may be.  The weak housing market conditions in Perth and Darwin were largely a symptom of weak economic and demographic conditions, while the current downturns in Sydney and Melbourne are occurring against reasonably strong economic and demographic conditions; the slowdown is primarily being influenced by tighter credit conditions.  </p>
<p>What is interesting is that comparing to Perth and Darwin shows that just because they have started falling slower than other housing market downturns doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t end up as a deeper and longer downturn.  Of course the reverse is true as well but it will be interesting to see how deep and how long these current downturns persist for in Sydney and Melbourne and whether they lead to downturns in other cities and regions too.</p>
<p><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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Are all property downturns the same?

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>The latest annual taxation data shows that state and local government coffers were boosted by $52.5 billion in 2016-17 due to taxes on property.</p>
<p>Each year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases taxation statistics and the latest data for 2016-17 was released recently. Over the 2016-17 financial year, state and local governments collected $52.5 billion in taxes from property with the figure climbing by 5.9% over the year. The taxation take from property is now more than double what it was in 2005-06.</p>
<p>Property taxes accounted for an historic high 52.8% of all tax revenue for state and local governments, up from 51.9% over the previous year.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/4/taxes1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/4/taxes1.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Property taxes are broken down into two broad types, taxes on immovable property and taxes on financial and capital transactions. Taxes on immovable property include: land tax, municipal rates and other smaller taxes. Taxes on financial and capital transactions include predominately stamp duties as well as a few other smaller taxes. Taxes on immovable property were recorded at $29.185 billion over the year with the remaining $23.338 billion being taxes on financial and capital transactions. Over the year, taxes on immovable property increased by 7.9% while taxes on financial and capital transactions increased by 3.6%.</p>
<p>The table highlights the value of taxation revenue between 2006-07 and 2016-17 across each state and territory for land tax, municipal rates and stamp duty, which are the three largest sources of taxation revenue at the state and local government level. Probably the most notable change over the period has been the uplift in revenue, particularly from stamp duty, in NSW and Vic which reflects the strength of these housing markets over the past decade relative to other states and territories.</p>
<p>Between 2006-07 and 2016-17, stamp duty revenue in NSW has increased by 115% and it has increased by 114% in Vic. Revenue from land taxes have doubled over the period in Vic (153%), Qld (123%) and WA (125%) while revenue from municipal rates has doubled over the period in WA (125%) and ACT (184%).</p>
<p>In NSW, stamp duty revenue accounted for 49.1% of all property tax revenue in 2016-17 up from a recent low of 32.3% in 2008-09. It is a similar story in Vic where stamp duty revenue accounted for 42.6% of property tax revenue, up from a recent low of 36.5% in 2012-13. The cyclical nature of housing market transactions makes stamp duty a volatile source of revenue for state governments. Another way to look at this is in WA where the housing market has been weak for a number of years, stamp duty revenue accounted for just 28.5% of all property related tax revenue in 2016-17 down from a peak of 54.5% in 2007-08.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/4/taxes2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/4/taxes2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>From here, we are now seeing the combined effect of dwelling values and transaction numbers falling in Sydney and Melbourne along with a number of regional areas of NSW. Both the NSW and Vic governments have benefitted substantially from stamp duty revenue over recent years and it now appears set to fall over the coming years as the housing market weakens after a number of years of surging values.</p>
<p>With a volatile source of taxation revenue such as stamp duty that taxes the small proportion of individuals that transact property each year, moving away from a transactional tax to a tax on all physical properties seems to make a lot of sense. Especially considering transaction volumes remain well below their peak and stamp duty revenue growth is largely being driven by higher values rather than a greater number of transactions.</p>
<p>Of course the transition to a broad based land tax will be difficult and recent owners may have to be compensated however, a more guaranteed source of revenue for state and territory governments means that they can much better plan for the future rather than being reliant on dwelling values and transactions remaining high in order to boost revenue.</p>
<p>Over the second half of 2017 and into 2018 we have seen residential housing markets weaken with values and transactions falling, particularly in NSW and Vic. As a result we would expect over the current financial year that stamp duty revenue will fall and as a result so will total property taxation revenue.</p>
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Property tax revenue continues to climb: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>CoreLogic undertook analysis of the recent March 2018 quarter consumer price index (CPI) data which confirmed that in inflation adjusted terms, dwelling values are now lower in most capital cities.</span></p>
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<p><span>(Note: consumer price index (CPI), which measures inflation, increased by 0.4% over the March 2018 quarter to be 1.9% higher year-on-year. With the release of this data, it is also possible to look at inflation-adjusted or real changes in dwelling values across the capital cities. When looking at these figures, the inflation adjustment means that value growth is lower).</span></p>
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<p><span>The results showed that national dwelling values fell by -1.0% and </span>were -0.7% lower over the past 12 months, however, Hobart was the only capital city where real values increased over the quarter (+3.0%) with Sydney recording the largest quarterly fall (-2.2%).</p>
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<p><span>Over the past twelve months, only Melbourne (+3.4%), Hobart (+10.9%) and Canberra (+1.0%) have seen dwelling values outpace inflation. The largest decline over the year was recorded in Darwin (-9.3%) followed by Perth (-4.3%) and Sydney (-4.0%).</span></p>
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<p><span>Over the past decade, only Sydney (+43.3%) Melbourne (+38.7%) </span><span>and Hobart (+6.4%) have recorded ‘real’ growth in dwelling values.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/26/corelogic%20expert%20obs%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge</p>
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<p><span>These latest figures really highlight just how </span><span>narrow value growth has been in the national housing market over the past decade. It also highlights that low mortgage rates alone have not been the key driver of value growth - mortgage rates are </span>the same in Sydney as they are in Perth yet the former has recorded real growth of 43.3% while the latter has seen values fall by -25.0%.</p>
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<p><span>With dwelling values dropping over recent months, all capital cities, except Hobart, now have real values which sit below their previous peak. Nationally, values are -2.0% lower than their June 2017 peak and across the combined capital cities values are a slightly greater -</span><span>2.5% lower. Let’s take a look at how dwelling</span><span>values have tracked in inflation adjusted terms across each capital city.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/26/corelogic%20expert%20obs%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge</p>
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<p><span>Sydney </span><span>– </span><span>values are 5.3% lower than their June 2017 peak.</span></p>
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<p><span>Melbourne </span><span>– </span><span>after peaking in December 2017, values are currently -0.9% lower.</span></p>
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<p><span>Brisbane </span><span>– </span><span>values peaked back in March 2008 and are currently - 12.5% lower.</span></p>
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<p><span>Adelaide </span><span>– </span><span>values currently sit -7.4% below their June 2010 peak.</span></p>
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<p><span>Perth </span><span>– </span><span>the city has seen values fall by -28.5% from their peak in December 2006. dwelling </span><span>values.”</span></p>
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<p><span>Hobart </span><span>– </span><span>with values increasing a further 10.9% over the past year, it is the only city where real dwelling values are currently at their peak.</span></p>
<p><span>Darwin </span><span>– </span><span>real dwelling values peaked in March 2013 and have since fallen by -28.2%.</span></p>
<p><span>Canberra </span><span>– </span><span>dwelling values are -6.8% lower than their June 2010 peak.</span></p>
<p><span>Although the rate of inflation is quite slow and remains below the Reserve </span><span>Bank’s </span><span>target range of 2% to 3% annually, value growth is now broadly slower and is expected to remain that way over the coming quarters.</span></p>
<p><span>As </span><span>a result, when looking at inflation-adjusted dwelling values the expectation is that they will continue to fall over the coming quarters which means that as the cost of other items increase and inflation rises, relatively speaking, the cost of housing will reduce. </span><span>We’ve </span><span>seen this result occurring in most capital cities for a number of years but is a relatively recent development in Sydney and Melbourne.</span><span>”</span></p>
<p><span>The </span><span>flow-on effect of value falls remains to be seen, however, it may result in less expenditure elsewhere across the economy, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne which have had strong retail demand over recent years due to the wealth-effect of increasing dwelling values.</span><span>”</span></p>
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<p><span><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></span></p>
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Hobart the only capital city where real dwelling values sit at their peak

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>Housing finance data from The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on first home buyer activity has generally shown that this segment of the market has been tracking at below average levels over recent years. </span></p>
<p><span>However, w</span><span>ith </span><span>each state and territory offering some level of incentive to first home buyers including grants and tax concessions, this segment is moving along quite nicely.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>Nationally, there were 8,782 housing finance commitments in February 2018. Although the volume of loans was down on levels in late 2017, it was 33.1% higher than the previous February.</span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/national.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>As </span><span>a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers accounted for 17.9% in February 2018 compared to 13.3% the previous year.</span><span><br></span></p>
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<p><span>Across </span><span>the individual states and territories, </span><span>we’re </span><span>seeing </span>several varying trends emerge – all likely due to activity across other buyer types in the market and how recently certain incentives have become available.</p>
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<p><span>Performance around the States:</span></p>
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<p><span>NSW: February 2018 saw 2,246 first home buyer housing finance commitments compared to 1,105 the previous year which is an increase of 103.3%. Since the end of June 2017, stamp duty concessions have become available and over the 8 months there have been 18,400 commitments compared to </span><span>10,857 over the previous 8 months. First home buyers now account for 15.1% of owner occupier finance commitments up </span><span>from 7.5% a year earlier. </span>The 15.1% is the greatest share 3,000 since October 2012.</p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/nsw.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>Vic: 2,619 finance commitments to first home buyers in </span>February 2018. The number of commitments was 38.6% higher than a year earlier. Vic also saw stamp duty exemptions go live on July 1 last year. From the end of June there have been 23,996 first home buyer commitments compared to 17,522 over the previous 8 months. First home buyers accounted for 18.3% of commitments compared to 13.9% a year earlier.</p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/vic.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>Qld: Over the month there were 1,839 first home buyer housing finance commitments. The number of commitments was only marginally higher from a year ago (+3.8%). First home buyers have been much more active over recent years than in NSW and Vic although, it should be noted investors have been much less active in the Qld market. First home buyers accounted for 19.3% of the market in February 2018 compared to 17.6% a year earlier. </span></p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/qld.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>SA: In February 2018 there were 443 first home buyer housing finance commitments. Although the number was lower than those recorded late last year, it was 17.8% higher than the previous February. Despite house values being the lowest of any mainland capital city, SA has the lowest share of first home buyer activity of any state or territory with 13.0% of owner occupier commitments going to first home buyers, a year ago they accounted for a 10.5% share so they have risen a little. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/SA.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>WA: There were 1,185 first home buyer finance commitments in February 2018 which was -0.1% fewer than the volume in</span><span> </span><span>FHB No. (LHS) </span><span>February 2017. WA is the only state or territory in which there </span><span>were fewer commitments to first home buyers than a year ago. </span><span>Despite the fall in volumes, first home buyers account for </span><span>25.0% of all owner occupier housing finance commitments </span><span>compared to 22.2% a year ago.</span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/WA.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>Tas: Over the month of February 2017 there were 137 first home buyer housing finance commitments which was 2.2% higher than the previous February. As a share of all owner occupier housing finance commitments, first home buyers account for 13.9%, up marginally from 13.8% a year ago. A common commentary is that a lot of younger people are moving to TAS to buy a home because they </span><span>can’t </span><span>afford one on the mainland. Although the number of first home buyers </span><span>rose over the year, they remain very low which suggests, at </span><span>least at this stage, first home buyers in TAS are not particularly </span><span>active. </span></p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/TAS.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>NT: While 52 first home buyer commitments in February 2018 is quite a low number, it is 26.8% higher than the previous year despite a sharp monthly fall. As a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers account for 19.4% compared to 14.7% a year earlier however, the share is currently trending lower. </span></p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/NT.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>ACT: The 261 first home buyer housing finance commitments </span>in February 2018 was a 177.7% increase in the number from the previous year. As a share of all owner occupier commitments, first home buyers accounted for 25.6% in February 2018 which was the highest share since October 2009.</p>
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<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/19/ACT.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
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<p><span>The latest trends in first home buyer activity highlights the </span>sensitivities of this important market segment to both affordability constraints as well as market incentives such as first home buyer grants and stamp duty concessions.</p>
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<p>Despite overall slowing conditions in Sydney and Melbourne, the CoreLogic home value indices results show that the more affordable end of the housing markets in these cities as still seeing values rise and likely generated by first home buyer activity.</p>
<p>In other cities where affordability constraints are less severe, in the absence of any changes to first home buyer incentives, first time buyers generally remain more active relative to Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
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<p><span>With </span><span>demand from the investment segment expected to continue to be weaker than it has over recent years, this may afford more opportunities for first home buyers to enter the market.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>Outside </span><span>of the two largest cities, first home buyer volumes </span><span>may lift over the coming months due to ongoing low mortgage rates and relative affordability compared to Sydney and</span><span> </span><span>Melbourne. In fact, the outflow of people from NSW to other states and territories is continuing to rise which may result in </span><span>increases in first home buyers elsewhere.</span><span><br></span></p>
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<p><span><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></span></p>
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First home buyer levels tracking below average levels for years

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>Over the March 2018 quarter, national data shows that dwelling values were down by 0.5%, however digging below the surface reveals the modest fall in values was confined to the most expensive quarter of the market.</p>
<p>The most affordable properties increased in value by +0.7% compared to a +0.3% increase across the middle market and a -1.1% decline across the most expensive properties.</p>
<p>Over the past year, dwelling values within the least expensive quartile increased by +0.7%, middle 50% values were +2.7% higher and top 25% values were +0.1% higher.</p>
<p>With value growth slowing, the trends of the past are being repeated with the most expensive properties experiencing the most rapid slowdown in value growth.</p>
<p>During the growth phase, it was these same properties that were also recording the highest rate of capital gain.</p>
<p>Of course trends vary substantially across the country.</p>
<p>The stratified hedonic index measures the change in values across three broad value based segments of the housing market: the most affordable 25% of properties, the middle 50% of properties and the most expensive 25% of properties. The Index provides valuable insight into how different segments of the market are performing.</p>
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<p>Sydney Over the past 12 months, the most expensive properties have recorded the largest value falls (-5.7%) followed by the middle market (-0.9%) and the most affordable market managed some moderate growth (+0.6%).</p>
<p>Regional NSW The trends were somewhat different outside of Sydney, with the strongest annual growth recorded in the middle 50% (+5.6%), followed by the low 25% (+4.1%) and top 25% (+3.7%).</p>
<p>Melbourne Values have increased over the past year across each segment of the market, with the most moderate increases recorded across the most expensive segment (+1.6%), then the middle 50% (+6.2%) while the most affordable suburbs have recorded double-digit growth (+11.3%).</p>
<p>Regional Vic Outside of Melbourne, the most expensive suburbs have recorded the strongest value growth (+4.7%) followed by the middle suburbs (+3.2%) and finally the most affordable suburbs where values were +2.4% higher.</p>
<p>Brisbane Annual growth has been quite moderate however, the middle valued suburbs recorded the strongest growth (+1.1%) followed by fairly similar growth rates across the most affordable suburbs (+0.9%) and the most expensive suburbs (+0.8%).</p>
<p>Regional Qld The most expensive suburbs were the only ones in which values increased over the past year (+2.4%), with values lower over the middle (-0.8%) and affordable (-3.5%) market segments.</p>
<p>Adelaide Each sector of the market recorded growth over the past year with the greatest increase across the middle market (+1.5%) with the affordable and expensive segments each recording growth of +0.8%.</p>
<p>Regional SA Values have declined across each market segment over the past year with the biggest falls across the most expensive suburbs (-4.2%) followed by the middle market (-1.2%) and the most affordable market (-0.2%).</p>
<p>Perth Values have fallen over the past year across each market sector with the largest declines across the most affordable properties (-4.4%) followed by the middle market (-3.2%) with the most expensive properties recording the most moderate value falls (-2.4%).</p>
<p>Regional WA The most expensive regional properties have recorded the most moderate value falls over the past year (-3.8%) while the middle (-6.4%) and least expensive (-7.5%) market segments have experienced much greater value falls.</p>
<p>Hobart The strongest performing market for value growth has recorded value increases across each segment, the greatest of which has occurred across the most affordable properties (+13.9%) followed by the middle market (+11.6%) and the most expensive market (+10.5%).</p>
<p>Regional Tas Values are climbing across each segment with the greatest annual growth recorded across the most affordable segment (+8.1%) followed by the middle market (+5.5%) and finally the most expensive properties (+2.7%).</p>
<p>Darwin The city has experience substantial value falls over the past year, the largest of which have occurred for the most expensive properties (-9.0%) followed by the middle market (-8.2%) and the most affordable suburbs (-6.8%).</p>
<p>Regional NT Values have increased over the past 12 months for the most affordable properties (+2.9%) while they have fallen across both the middle (-0.6%) and the most expensive properties (-0.7%).</p>
<p>Canberra The most affordable suburbs have recorded the slowest annual growth over the past year (+1.7%) followed by the most expensive properties (+1.9%) and the middle market (+2.6%).</p>
<p>The data highlights, that particularly within the housing markets which have recorded the strongest value growth over recent years (Sydney and Melbourne) that growth across the premium housing sector is slowing more rapidly than the other sectors.</p>
<p>This mirrors the experience in other recent housing market slowdowns/downturns whereby it is the most expensive suburbs which slow first and have experienced the larger downturns.</p>
<p>Hobart and regional Tasmania are seeing values grow at a rapid pace and it is interesting to note that the growth in the market is being led by more affordable properties with the relatively expensive housing lagging in terms of growth.</p>
<p>In Perth and Darwin where the housing markets have been in a downturn for many years different trends are emerging. Perth is showing more signs of a recovery than Darwin and it appears the improvement in Perth is being driven by premium housing.</p>
<p>By comparison, in Darwin where the market shows few signs of improvement the most expensive properties are showing the greatest weakness.</p>
<p>The headline figures tell a broad story about the housing markets performance while the stratified hedonic index highlights the importance of also taking a more micro look at the market.</p>
<p>The data shows that even within cities there are very different trends at play between the affordable and expensive properties which is important to understand.</p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/12/corelogic%201%20.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/12/corelogic%202.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/12/corelogic%203.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/4/12/corelogic%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em><strong>Cameron Kusher</strong> heads research at CoreLogic.</em></p>
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Expensive properties' price growth slowing the most: Cameron Kusher

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<p><span>Research shows that over the 12 </span>months to December 2017, 16.1% of all houses and 9.5% of all units sold nationally transacted with a price tag excess of $1 million.</p>
<p>By comparison, 12 months earlier 14.8% of houses and 8.1% of units sold for more than $1 million.</p>
<p>At 16.1% of all house sales and 9.5%all unit sales in excess of $1 million, more houses and units sold for more than $1 million than sold for less than $200,000.</p>
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<p>Across the combined capital cities, 23.8% of all houses and 11.6% of all units sold over the year sold for more than $1 million.</p>
<p>The number sold for more than $1 million was up from 21.7% and 9.8% respectively a year earlier.</p>
<p>Five years ago just 9.8% of all houses and 3.9% of all units sold for more than $1 million. A greater number of houses sold for more than $1 million over the past year than sold for under $400,000. </p>
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<p><span>Across the combined regional markets, 4.6% of houses </span>and 3.8% of units sold over the year transacted at or above $1 million. The share of million dollar sales was up over the year from 3.8% for houses and 3.6% for units.</p>
<p>Five years earlier, 1.7% of houses and 2.2% of units sold throughout the year sold for $1 million. While in the combined capital cities the share of $1 million sales is significant it remains relatively small in those areas outside of the capitals. </p>
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<p><span>Sydney is the region that recorded the highest proportion </span>of sales of at least $1 million throughout 2017. Over the year, 49.3% of all houses sold were at least $1 million which was up from 45.4% at the end of 2016 and 18.8% at the end of 2012.</p>
<p>Over the 2012 calendar year, 5.4%  of all Sydney units sold over the year were at least $1 million, by 2016 the share had increased to 18.7% and 25% then by the end of 2017 it was up to 22.3%. More recently, values have begun to fall in Sydney, particularly for higher value properties, so there is a possibility in2018 Sydney will see a decline in the share of sales of at least $1 million. The share of $1 million plus sales in Melbourne has climbed significantly over recent years.</p>
<p>Throughout 2017, 28.3% of all houses and 8.3% of all units purchased were at least $1 million. The share of $1 million sales was up from 23.7% for houses and 7.2% of units a year earlier. The share of $1 million sales has risen substantially from five years ago when 9.7% of houses and 3.5% of units sold for at least $1 million. </p>
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<p><span>Although </span><span>value growth </span>has been fairly moderate in Brisbane over recent years, the share of $1 million sales has continued to climb. Throughout 2017, 8.3% of all houses and 3.4% of all units sold, transacted for at least $1 million. A year earlier, 7.5% of all houses and 2.8% of all units sold for at least $1 million and five years earlier just 3.6% and 2.1% of houses and units sold for at least $1 million.” </p>
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<p>Dwelling values in Adelaide have increased by just 2.2% over the past year, however, the share of stock selling for $1 million or more has continued to climb. Over the  2017 calendar year, 5.5% of all houses sold for at least  $1 million with the share climbing from 5.0% a year earlier and 2.8% five years previous.</p>
<p>For units, 1.6% of all sales were at least $1 million 2 years ago compared to 1.7% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017. Over the past year there were more Adelaide houses sold for at least $1 million than there were sold for less than $200,000. </p>
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<p><span>Perth has been recording falls in values since 2014 and </span>the most expensive properties have recorded falls more substantial than the city wide average. The share of sales of $1 million or more has fallen over the year for house(10.4% to 10.3%) and units (4.5% to 3.2%). Although the share of sales of $1 million property has declined over the year it remains higher than it was five years ago for houses but lower for units when those sales accounted for 7.2% and 3.4% of all sales respectively. </p>
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<p>As the nation’s most affordable capital city housing market, Hobart has far fewer sales of $1 million properties than other capital cities. Notwithstanding, values of all capital cities and has seen a fairly significant lift in the share of $1 million sales over the past year.</p>
<p>Over the 2017 calendar year, 2.8% of all houses sold transacted for $1 million or more, up from 2.3% a year earlier and 1.4% five years earlier. The share of $1 million unit sales was steady over the year at 0.9% of all sales and down from five years earlier when 1.3% of all sales were at least $1 million. </p>
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<p><span>Darwin has been the </span><span>nation’s </span><span>weakest performing capital </span>city housing market for a number of years. At the end of February 2018, dwelling values were -22.3% lower than their peak. Predictably, such substantial value falls have led to a significant decline in $1 million sales.</p>
<p>Over the 2017 calendar year, 3.1% of all houses sold were at least $1 million compared to 4.1% a year earlier but a lower 2.4% five years earlier. 1.3% of all unit sales in 2017 were at least $1 million compared to 2.3% a year earlier and 1.7% five years earlier. </p>
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<p><span>Dwelling values in Canberra have increased by 3.2% </span>over the 12 months to February 2018 and as aresultthe share of sales of properties worth $1 million or more has also risen. At the end of 2017, 12.6% of all house sales throughout the year had been at least $1 million, up from 10.4% a year earlier and 4.8% five years earlier. For units, 2.5% of all sales were at least $1 million, up from  2.3% a year earlier and 1.3% five years earlier.</p>
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<p><span>The latest data is showing that a number of capital cities have now recorded falls in values, in particular the most expensive city, Sydney. </span></p>
<p><span>Additional data also indicates that values are falling by the greatest amount across the premium sector of the housing market. Should these declines continue, it may result in a decline in the share of sales of properties at or in excess of $1 million throughout 2018. </span></p>
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<p><span><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em> </span></p>
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Nearly 25 percent of capital city houses sell for over $1 million in 2017

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<p>The latest data from the Reserve Bank (RBA) shows that the expansion of housing credit is occurring at a historically sluggish pace as tighter credit policies and slower housing market conditions dampen investment participation in the housing market.</p>
<p>The RBA releases its financial aggregates on the last working day of each month and it provides valuable insight into outstanding credit to all mortgage lenders in Australia.  </p>
<p>The latest data shows that in January 2018, housing credit expanded by 0.5% which was actually greater than the 0.4% expansion the previous month.  Splitting the data by owner occupier and investors, owner occupier credit expanded by 0.6% compared to 0.2% for investors.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-05-pulseimg1.png" alt="CoreLogic monthly change in housing credit owner occupier vs investor" width="655" height="297"></p>
<p>The first chart shows the monthly change in housing credit for owner occupiers and investors, while owner occupier credit expansion is tracked fairly steady, there is a clear slowing of credit expansion to investors currently.  The slowdown is being fueled by switching of investor loans to owner occupier and macroprudential policies which limit credit growth to investors.  </p>
<p>The macroprudential policies have come in two waves, the first wave limited lenders from growing investor credit by more than 10%pa while the second wave limited new interest-only lending (which is largely utilised by investors) to 30% of new originations.  The first chart suggests that the first wave actually tightened investor credit growth more than the second wave, highlighted by the fact that in December 2015 investor credit recorded no change while the slowest rate of expansion since the second wave of policies has been 0.2% which is not as severe of a slowdown as that experienced following the first wave of macroprudential policies.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-05-pulseimg2.png" alt="CoreLogic Annual change in housing credit, owner occupier vs investor" width="658" height="303"></p>
<p>The second chart focusses on the annual change in housing credit and shows the benchmark for the 10% speed limit for investor lending which was introduced by APRA in late 2014. This chart also highlights a relatively steady expansion in owner occupier credit but a slowing expansion of investor credit.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-05-pulseimg3.png" alt="CoreLogic housing's share of total outstanding credit to lenders" width="666" height="271"></p>
<p>At the end of January 2018, the total value of outstanding housing credit was $1.731 trillion which was an historic high.  As a share of the total value of credit outstanding to lenders, residential housing accounts for a record-high 62.0%. The data shows a clear preference for lending for residential housing over recent years especially when you consider at the end of 2007, just prior to the GFC, housing accounted for a much lower 51.9% of total outstanding credit.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-05-pulseimg4.png" alt="CoreLogic share of total outstanding housing credit to investors" width="665" height="292"></p>
<p>The fourth chart highlights outstanding investor credit as a share of total outstanding housing credit.  In January 2018, outstanding credit to investors was recorded at $587.9 billion which represented 34.0% of total housing credit.  Although investors make up a significant proportion of outstanding credit, as a share investor credit has been falling since its peak of 38.7% in June 2015.  In fact, the share of credit to investors is at its lowest level since May 2013.</p>
<p>Based on the most recent data from APRA, Australian lenders have comprehensively met the macroprudential targets for investment credit growth and interest only lending.  Considering annual investment credit growth, at 3.0%, continues to track well under the 10% speed limit and interest only lending  is also well under the 30% benchmark, it’s possible investment credit growth could lift over coming months.</p>
<p>Investors do face other headwinds though, with capital gains cooling, yields tracking well below average and depreciation benefits less appealing since the federal government budget last year.</p>
<p>Overall, the expansion in housing credit is now largely being driven by the owner occupier segment of the market.  With mortgage rates expected to rise some time over the next two years and dwelling values falling, it will be interesting to see how long the steady expansion in owner occupier credit can last.</p>
<p><em><strong>Cameron Kusher</strong> is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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Overall housing credit growth lower after investor loan drop: Cameron Kusher

<p>National diversified developer Fortis has officially launched Crest &amp; Walker, its latest Brisbane apartment development, with construction now underway on the 20-storey Newstead project.</p>

<p>Award-winning builder BINAH has commenced construction on the Bureau^Proberts-designed building, which will deliver a limited collection of 65 two and three-bedroom apartments on Kyabra Street.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373556]</p>

<p>The project marks Fortis' fourth active residential development in Brisbane, following River House, which is nearing completion, alongside projects in New Farm and Hamilton as the national developer continues to expand its South East Queensland pipeline.</p>

<p>Fortis General Manager – Development Queensland Dan Boman said Crest &amp; Walker reflects the developer's long-term commitment to delivering design-led residential projects in Brisbane's established inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>"We're proud to be strengthening our presence in Brisbane with Crest &amp; Walker, particularly in such a sought-after lifestyle destination as Newstead," Boman said.</p>

<p>"Every Fortis project is shaped by its context, and we approach each one with the respect and care it deserves.</p>

<p>"Our focus is always on creating places that feel connected to their neighbourhood and elevate the everyday experience for residents. Newstead continues to evolve as one of Brisbane's most sought-after urban communities, and Crest &amp; Walker reflects our ambition to contribute meaningfully to that story."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373559]</p>

<p>Positioned between Gasworks Plaza and James Street, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/crest-walker-newstead-12-kyabra-street-newstead-qld-4006">Crest &amp; Walker</a> has been designed as a boutique residential address offering privacy and generous living spaces within one of Brisbane's most established lifestyle precincts.</p>

<p>The building features a contemporary brick podium softened by integrated landscaping, while the upper levels are characterised by restrained architecture and enduring materiality. Interiors have been designed to maximise natural light, acoustic performance and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373583]</p>

<p>Residences comprise spacious two and three-bedroom floorplans, with two-bedroom apartments priced from $1.55 million and three-bedroom, half-floor residences from $3.95 million.</p>

<p>Residents will have access to a wellness-focused rooftop featuring a swimming pool, sauna, steam room, landscaped dining spaces and outdoor lounge areas overlooking Newstead and the Brisbane CBD.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=145922 project_image_fid=373571]</p>

<p>Sales are being managed by Slaite Projects, with Fortis expecting strong demand from owner-occupiers seeking a high-quality, design-focused apartment in one of Brisbane's most tightly held inner-city suburbs.</p>

<p>Completion of Crest &amp; Walker is slated for late 2028.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=145922]</p>


Joel Robinson

Fortis expands Brisbane pipeline with launch of Crest & Walker in Newstead

<p>The enormity of delivering a true skyscraper in Australia's new development market is often overlooked.</p>

<p>It has taken the best part of a decade since plans for Chevron One were first unveiled, but the 52-storey tower is now complete, with residents collecting their keys and moving into what has become one of the Gold Coast's most recognisable new landmarks.</p>

<p>Rising 127 metres above Chevron Island, Chevron One stands almost twice as high as any other building on the island. Its scale places it alongside the trio of towers at Jewel, arguably the last truly significant addition to the central Gold Coast skyline when they were completed around six years ago.</p>

<p>While there are several developments underway around a similar height to Chevron One, they are more concentrated within clusters of the highest towers in the city. The fact Chevron One sits within a developing precinct, looking back at the other high-rise developments in Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach, makes it a different proposition altogether. It will certainly become a reference point on the Gold Coast skyline.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68833]</p>

<p>Developer Bensons Property Group is behind the 52-storey tower, which has just shy of 250 apartments, along with an exhaustive list of resident amenity spread across what is the largest development site ever assembled on Chevron Island.</p>

<p>The tower has been the talk of the town for years, says Ray White Projects Gold Coast agent Caitlin Rosenboom, who is selling the remaining apartments.</p>

<p>"People have been watching Chevron One go up for years," Rosenboom says, adding that many prospective buyers have been surprised by the scale of the views once they step inside.</p>

<p>"It's only when they walk through a completed apartment that they truly understand the position of the building," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>"The views are jaw-dropping. Whether you're looking east over the ocean, across Surfers Paradise, along the river systems or out to the hinterland, every level offers something different but equally impressive."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=360215]</p>

<p>One of Chevron One's defining advantages is its location on the eastern side of Chevron Island on Stanhill Drive, a position which protects the views forever.</p>

<p>"There's only one row of houses between Chevron One and the water, and the height restrictions along the river means views from Chevron One can never be built out,"&nbsp;Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>While new apartment developments continue to emerge across the Gold Coast, Rosenboom says opportunities to secure a completed apartment with this level of outlook are becoming increasingly rare.</p>

<p>"The size of the site is something that would be incredibly difficult to replicate today," she says.</p>

<p>"That's allowed Chevron One to deliver the sort of amenity, open space and resident facilities that very few projects can offer. There are not many completed apartment buildings on the Gold Coast right now that can compete with the combination of scale, quality and amenity."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=6515 project_image_fid=68839]</p>

<p>There's around 2,000 sqm of amenity solely for the use of residents of Chevron One. Club One features a uniquely shaped swimming pool that mirrors the footprint of the building itself, set within a extensively landscaped gardens. There's also an indoor pool and spa, a fully equipped gym with a Pilates room, a yoga garden, a bookable private dining area and lounge that can host up to 30 people, and a 24-hour concierge service.</p>

<p>As for the buyers, Rosenboom is fielding enquiry from everywhere: Sydneysiders and Melburnians looking at the new and off-the-plan market following the changes in the Federal Budget, as well as those looking to relocate, through to South East Queenslanders seeking either a permanent home or a weekender bolthole.</p>

<p>"The Gold Coast lifestyle continues to resonate with people relocating from the southern states, and when they see the views and the quality of what's been delivered at Chevron One, it becomes very easy for them to understand the appeal," Rosenboom says.</p>

<p>A diverse mix of one, two and three-bedroom apartments remain available, with each offering "something a little different", be it the orientation and views, configuration, or level, to suit a wide variety of buyers.</p>

<p>The remaining apartments are ready to inspect in person, by appointment.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=6515]</p>


A decade in the making: Residents to move into Chevron One as construction wraps up

<p>A general rule of thumb in new apartment developments is that the penthouses get the rooftop.</p>

<p>It's a formula that's become commonplace across Australia's apartment market. Residents might have access to a pool, gym or barbecue facilities on a dedicated lower level, but the most desirable outdoor spaces are typically reserved for the highest-priced homes at the top of the building.</p>

<p><a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Property Group</a> has taken the opposite approach.</p>

<p>Rather than dedicating the rooftop to a handful of buyers, the Gold Coast developer has made it the centrepiece of its Flourish collection, creating expansive shared spaces from the best vantage point in the building.</p>

<p>The philosophy has reached its most ambitious expression at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a> in Palm Beach, where two rooftop precincts connected by a skybridge will deliver one of the most extensive lifestyle offerings seen in a residential apartment project on the Gold Coast.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374053]</p>

<p>"We're seeing a clear move toward developments that offer more than just an apartment," Sherpa Group founder Christie Leet said.</p>

<p>"People want spaces that support how they actually live, whether that's working from home, staying active, or spending time with family and friends.</p>

<p>"That's where amenity becomes critical. It's not just about what's included, but how those spaces are designed to be used every day."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374052]</p>

<p>The breadth of amenity has already attracted buyers across multiple demographics. Younger first home buyers have been drawn to Soleira's one-bedroom apartments, a product rarely delivered in Palm Beach, while families have responded to practical inclusions such as the shallow children's pool adjoining the main lap pool and the extensive communal recreation areas.</p>

<p>Instead of a single rooftop, Soleira delivers two distinct lifestyle zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=372547]</p>

<p>The southern rooftop has been dedicated to wellness, featuring a gym, yoga and Pilates studio, work-from-home facilities, a wellness centre, spa, and hot and cold plunge pools.</p>

<p>The northern rooftop focuses on recreation and entertaining, incorporating a heated resort-style pool, private dining rooms, pizza ovens, barbecues, a golf simulator, children's recreation areas, and what is expected to be the Gold Coast's first rooftop basketball court, which will also double as a squash court.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=374054]</p>

<p>Beyond the rooftops, Soleira will introduce 1,500 sqm of curated retail beneath the towers, creating one of Palm Beach's first genuinely mixed-use lifestyle precincts where cafés, restaurants and convenience retail become part of residents' everyday lives.</p>

<p>Sherpa has also retained management rights across the development, allowing it to oversee the long-term operation of the building through a 24-hour concierge model. The developer is also exploring additional revenue streams within the precinct aimed at helping offset ongoing body corporate costs for residents.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=150017 project_image_fid=370962]</p>

<p>While Soleira is the largest project Sherpa has delivered, the rooftop-first philosophy has been evolving for several years.</p>

<p>It began with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>, the first project released under the Flourish brand. Rather than competing at the ultra-luxury end of the market with oversized half-floor and full-floor residences, Sherpa focused on creating lifestyle-driven apartments supported by resort-style shared spaces.</p>

<p>Amargo introduced more than 800 sqm of rooftop amenity, combining wellness facilities, heated pools, entertaining areas, cabanas, pizza ovens and private dining spaces into what was designed as an extension of residents' homes rather than a facility used only occasionally.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=146527 project_image_fid=366550]</p>

<p>That approach continued with Flourish Oasis, where the same amenity-led philosophy was refined into a more boutique development. Strong demand from Sherpa's growing VIP database saw much of the project sold before it reached the broader market, reinforcing buyer appetite for apartment communities centred around shared lifestyle experiences.</p>

<p>Flourish Amargo is slated for completion mid-way-through next year, with Oasis to be delivered by late 2027. Flourish Soleira is expected to complete in 2030.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=150017]</p>


Sherpa takes amenity to the sky as Flourish Soleira captures booming Palm Beach demand

<p>As apartment living continues to evolve across Sydney's growth corridors, the quality and distribution of shared spaces is increasingly shaping how residents experience home. Rather than functioning as add-ons, amenities are being embedded into the daily rhythm of a building, supporting everything from quiet retreat to social interaction, often within a single vertical community.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/aeris-melrose-park-nursery-street-melrose-park-nsw-2114">Aeris</a> in Melrose Park, this approach is resolved through a layered amenity offering that unfolds from ground level through to its upper podium. Developed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sekisui-house-australia">Sekisui House Australia</a> in partnership with Hankyu Hanshin Properties, the project introduces 468 apartments across two towers and a mid-rise building, positioned at the highest point of the broader masterplan.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=359199]</p>

<p>The amenity experience begins at street level, where two courtyards sit within a landscaped setting that connects residents to the wider network of parks and green spaces. These green spaces are not isolated pockets but part of a wider pedestrian network that links Aeris to the surrounding <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/melrose-park-nsw-2114">Melrose Park</a> precinct, including Central Park, future schools, and the Town Centre opening in July 2026. The result is a transition that moves from public to private without abrupt boundaries, allowing residents to pass through shaded, tree-lined environments before reaching the building itself.</p>

<p>Moving upward, the focus shifts to the level five podium, where the primary communal facilities are concentrated. This space brings together a 16-metre swimming pool, outdoor seating areas, and a communal BBQ zone arranged to take advantage of elevated outlooks. Seating is positioned beneath pergolas, creating pockets of shade that extend the usability of the space throughout the day. The pool edge aligns with views toward the wider district, reinforcing the sense of elevation that defines the project’s positioning.</p>

<p>In the adjacent building, this is complemented by quieter, more contemplative spaces, including an outdoor cinema set within the same level. Positioned to operate primarily in the evening, it introduces a different tempo to the shared environment, shifting from daytime activity to after-hours use without requiring separate zones.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360299]</p>

<p>The podium also accommodates an intimate private resident gym. Located on the lower levels, it gives residents convenient access to fitness facilities without leaving the building.</p>

<p>Above, the elevated podium sky deck extends the amenity offering, providing additional open-air spaces with elevated outlooks across the surrounding landscape. While more restrained in program, this upper level reinforces the project’s vertical progression, from ground-level greenery to elevated outlook, allowing residents to move between distinct spatial conditions within a single address.</p>

<p>This distribution of amenities reflects a deliberate response to how residents use space across the day. Sekisui House Australia Sales and Marketing Director Peter Kalaf points to the role these shared areas play in shaping buyer demand. Aeris has been conceived as more than a collection of apartments, with the podium pool, gym and outdoor cinema forming part of a broader lifestyle offering that extends the home beyond each individual residence.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=426 project_image_fid=360300]</p>

<p>What distinguishes Aeris is not the inclusion of these elements individually, but how they are arranged in relation to one another. Active, social, and passive spaces are layered vertically rather than separated, allowing residents to choose between them without leaving the building or moving far from their apartment. This proximity supports both routine use, such as a morning swim or evening workout, and more occasional gatherings, whether around the BBQ area or within the cinema setting.</p>

<p>The amenity design also sits within a broader framework of connectivity across Melrose Park. The Melrose Park Town Centre, anchored by Coles and Dan Murphys, features a mix of retail, dining, health and lifestyle offerings, bringing everyday convenience closer to residents. By the end of the year, more than five hectares of parks and open space, equivalent to around seven football fields of green space on residents' doorstep, will further enhance the precinct, allowing the internal facilities at Aeris to operate as an extension of the wider neighbourhood rather than a substitute for it.</p>

<p>Construction at Aeris continues to gather momentum, with ground floor slabs expected to be completed in late 2026 before the first sections of the buildings begin to rise above ground.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=426]</p>


Elevated amenity anchors daily life at Aeris, Melrose Park

<p>Repeat buyers are one of the strongest measures of confidence in any apartment development.</p>

<p>At <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/era-newcastle-west-124-126-bull-street-newcastle-west-nsw-2302">ERA</a> in Newcastle West, some purchasers are returning to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gwh">GWH</a> after living at the developer's One Apartments. Their decision to purchase again was driven by the quality of life they found after moving into their first GWH home.</p>

<p>Keith Wilton had spent years living in a house in East Maitland before deciding it was time for a change. Apartment living had always been on his radar, but he was selective about what he wanted.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FH_1EzB-1vs?si=XScVlP1ERsTDJoME" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>"I had some boxes I wanted to tick," he says.</p>

<p>Keith points to the open-plan design, generous outdoor areas and considered inclusions as key reasons One Apartments worked for him.</p>

<p>“One of those things was a nice indoor open plan area, but also I wanted a nice outdoor open area that I could entertain on in summer or Christmases or birthdays,” he says.</p>

<p>He also found value in the smaller details, from integrated appliances to shared resident spaces including the pool, cinema and rooftop areas.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356818]</p>

<p>After comparing several developments, he chose One Apartments because of GWH's longstanding local reputation and his own experience working with the developer on a commercial project more than a decade earlier.</p>

<p>"I knew that they were local, that the quality of the build was going to be up there. I'd looked at other apartment complexes around and close by, and I just knew that here was a better decision location wise."</p>

<p>Today, Keith says the move has completely changed how he experiences Newcastle.</p>

<p>"I enjoy living in this location because it's more of a lifestyle change. That Newcastle city living where you can walk to restaurants and bars and even beaches and parks and even shopping across the road."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356828]</p>

<p>Beyond the location, he says it's the sense of community that has surprised him most.</p>

<p>"Everyone loves living here because they chose to live here, but everyone looks out for each other. It's a real great community feel here."</p>

<p>For Aimee and Lyle Goodman, the journey started almost by chance.</p>

<p><iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tsioMLcnjas?si=zq-ys3JuWpfa5hFv" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe></p>

<p>The couple happened to be having coffee in Newcastle when they noticed the site where One Apartments was about to begin construction.</p>

<p>"We were aware GWH was planning a development," Aimee says. "We made one phone call and things moved pretty quickly after that."</p>

<p>As busy business owners, they initially thought apartment living would simply reduce the maintenance that came with larger homes. Instead, it fundamentally changed how they spent time together.</p>

<p>"We actually catch up more as a family now," Aimee says.</p>

<p>"We've had homes with big yards and lots of space, but everyone ended up in different rooms. Here we'll have dinner together, the kids can play, and we spend far more quality time together."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356829]</p>

<p>Lyle says their confidence came from GWH's reputation within Newcastle's building industry.</p>

<p>"I know people who've worked across different apartment projects, and whenever GWH came up the feedback was always the same. They're rock solid. They're quality."</p>

<p>That confidence only grew throughout the buying process.</p>

<p>"One of the things that really impressed us with GWH was the whole process, was the communication," Lyle says. "It was consistent, it was regular, there was no problem if we had some weird questions, there was no problems in getting answers."</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351104]</p>

<p>Aimee says one moment stood out.</p>

<p>"The project actually finished on time. We realised we needed to hurry up and sell our house because everything was happening exactly when they said it would."</p>

<p>The positive experience at One Apartments ultimately gave all three buyers the confidence to purchase again with GWH, this time at ERA.</p>

<p>Their confidence reflects what many buyers are seeking in today's apartment market. Location remains important, but so too does certainty around delivery, quality and long-term liveability.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356822]</p>

<p>ERA builds on those foundations with 280 one, two and three-bedroom apartments across two landmark towers in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/newcastle-west-nsw-2302">Newcastle West</a>.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">Fender Katsalidis</a>, the project will include more than 2,000 square metres of resident amenities, including a resort-style pool, gym, sauna, private cinema and rooftop entertaining spaces overlooking the harbour and coastline.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The development is also within walking distance of the Newcastle Interchange, Honeysuckle, Darby Street, the harbour foreshore, restaurants, retail and the city’s beaches, continuing the walkable lifestyle that existing GWH buyers say has transformed how they live.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=356826]</p>

<p>For Keith, the appeal remains straightforward.</p>

<p>"You feel at home even before you've moved into your home."</p>

<p>For Aimee, the change is measured in time.</p>

<p>“I just felt like I had more time,” she says.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=135096 project_image_fid=351102]</p>

<p>Construction at ERA is now underway, with more than half of the residences already sold and limited two and three-bedroom apartments remaining in the East Tower release. Priced from $980,000 for two-bedroom residences and $1.46 million for three-bedroom residences, buyers can secure an apartment with a 10 per cent deposit, with premium homes offering ocean views from Level 8 and harbour views from Level 10.</p>

<p>ERA is also backed by Resilience Insurance's 10-year Latent Defects Insurance policy, providing protection against structural or waterproofing defects for 10 years after completion. The project is anticipated to be completed in early 2028.</p>

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Cameron Kusher

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