Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

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Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

Wind Farm

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UBS Asset Management has sold their stake in Collgar Wind Farm, Western Australia's largest wind farms, to REST Industry Super.
REST had owned 40 percent of Collgar and have acquired UBS Asset Management's 60 percent stake.
The deal will make Collgar one of the largest Australian renewable energy projects directly owned by an Australian superannuation fund.
Rest has been involved with Collgar since construction began in 2010. 
Collgar generates, on average, between 40 and 50 per cent of the state’s renewable electricity. This is enough to power up to 170,000 average WA households per year and displace up to 690,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year. 
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The acquisition was negotiated by Rest’s internal investment manager, Super Investment Management. 
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 George Zielinksi, chief investment officer at Super Investment Management, said the project is expected to continue to generate sustainable cash flows.
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“Collgar Wind Farm is a premium infrastructure asset that has been delivering strong returns for Rest members", Zielinski said.
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"Renewable energy projects like this will continue to play an important role in Australia’s future.
“As an existing owner, Rest has been able to monitor and assess the wind farm’s operational performance since construction was completed in 2011. 
"Taking full ownership is a great opportunity to drive further value from the asset and strengthen Rest’s infrastructure portfolio. 
"We are confident it will help grow members’ retirement savings into the future.” 
Collgar is the largest wind farm in WA, built on 18,000 hectares of land with a total capacity of 206 Megawatts. 
Collgar generates, on average, between 40 and 50 per ent of the state’s renewable electricity, enough to power up to 170,000 average WA households per year and displace up to 690,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year. 
The project holds a five-star Global Real Estate Sustainable Benchmark (GRESB) rating for 2018.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

UBS sell controlling stake in Collgar Wind Farm, Western Australia's largest wind farm

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DomaCom have been selected by developers CWP Renewables and Partners Group as their partner to implement the community co-investment initiative of Sapphire Wind Farm in rural New South Wales.
The Sapphire Wind Farm, in Kingsland New England in Northern New South Wales, will be an Australian first for its community co-investment.
DomaCom's <a href="https://domacom.com.au/" target="_blank">fractional property platform</a> will allow local community members to invest alongside institutional investors.
The platform allows multiple investors to aggregate their investments into an asset, typically a real estate asset, but now also renewable energy projects.
Andrew Dickson at CWP Renewables, the company behind developing and constructing the wind farm, said DomaCom is a great fir for the community co-investment initiative.
"Their online platform makes it very easy for people to establish and manage their investment," Dickson said, adding that after testing the community's interest late last year, he was surprised with the level of interest.
“With over $7.3m of pledges received so far from the local community, we are pleased to now be delivering on our promise to the community, to open up the project for co-investment.”
Ross Laidlaw from DomaCom said the company are excited about the partnership.
“We are very excited to be partnering with CWP Renewables and Partners Group in the Community Co-Investment Sapphire Wind Farm. DomaCom has been a pioneer in fractional investment in Australia now in its 5th year of operation.
"The Sapphire Wind Farm Community Fund is a clear demonstration of the vision of DomaCom taking large institutional assets and breaking them down into fractional components to allow retail investors to obtain exposure to an asset class not previously available.”
Construction of the wind farm began in January, and the final turbine was installed in October. 
Ben Haan from Partners Group, the investment fund manager that co-owns the project, said community investment is integral to the business.
"What we are pioneering at Sapphire will be applied to future Grassroots projects, allowing our communities to share the benefits and to invest in Australia’s renewable energy future," Haan said.
For more information on DomaCom <a href="https://domacom.com.au/" target="_blank">click here.</a>
 
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DomaCom partner to offer co-investment in Sapphire Wind Farm

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/67244/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
While Australia’s energy market operator continues its investigation into South Australia’s recent state-wide blackout, there are important questions being asked. 
For instance, was extreme weather the only cause? Has South Australia replaced fossil fuels with renewables too quickly?
And is the Australia’s Renewable Energy Target (RET) too ambitious all together?
It is impossible to find answers without understanding how the energy market works, and how replacing one source of energy with another actually happens. 
<h2>How does the market work?</h2>
Most Australians (barring the Northern Territory and Western Australia) get their electricity through the National Electricity Market. 
Suppose all the energy users, at a particular day and time, switch on lights, computers, industrial machinery, washing machines, vacuum cleaners, traffic control equipment and more. Added together, they determine how much energy is needed or demanded at that very point in time. 
On the other side of the poles and wires, different independent electricity generators – thermal, hydro, wind, solar – are offering energy to the market, each at a price enabling them to recover costs and make a reasonable profit. This is called bidding. 
Contemporary electronic technology allows for the wholesale market to take electricity and bids every five minutes, and allocate amounts accepted from the successful bidders. And who are those successful bidders?
All current bids are ranked by unit price. Allocation starts from the lowest-price bidder, then the second lowest one, and continues on until the current demand is met. The last accepted bidder’s price becomes the spot market price, and allows other successful bidders to make more or less profit.
<h2>How do renewables affect the market?</h2>
The main incentive policy for wind farms in Australia is the Renewable Energy Target (RET), which legislates that 33 gigawatt hours of electricity must come from renewable sources by 2020. As part of the RET, large-scale renewable energy generators (solar and wind farms) receive credits (certificates) for electricity they generate, which are then purchased by retailers to meet the target. 
This market is separate to the National Electricity Market (NEM) and acts as a second income source for renewable energy generators.
With this in mind, we have modelled what happens when wind energy is phased into the market based on five minute electricity market data for several years.
The running (marginal) cost of wind generators is zero (because wind is free), unlike traditional thermal technology (which has to pay for coal and gas). Subsequently, wind generators recover their fixed costs and obtain profit in the difference between marginal cost and market price based on “more expensive” bids. 
In the long run, wind generation decreases the market price through the bidding process. So with an increase in the energy volume generated by wind, the traditional sources are pushed out from the market. The chart below illustrates this process for South Australia. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/25/image-20161019-20308-xt2ui.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h2><img src="/images/2016/10/25/image-20161019-20308-xt2ui.jpg" alt=""></h2>
Because their fixed costs can be recovered through the RET, wind generators can bid at near zero prices and completely eliminate traditional competitors. Therefore, wind generation can only naturally exist in the market if there are other, more expensive forms of generation to set the price. Otherwise wind farms could not recover their costs without the RET. 
This means that there is an optimal proportion of wind energy in the market, where more expensive thermal generators set the market price. 
If there is an optimum amount of wind energy in the market, this has important consequences for the RET. The target artificially increases the proportion of wind energy that can be sustained in the grid. While this may be the goal of the RET, without the incentive, wind capacity would eventually fall back to the market optimum. 
In practice, this would occur as wind farms reach their natural life of about 20 years and aren’t replaced. So the RET won’t maintain or increase wind energy in the market in the long term, unless the incentives continue indefinitely.
The current RET is legislated to 2030, with a target set for 2020. To encourage wind energy in the long term, it would be required, then, to support the RET by an ongoing financial inducement without a closing date. 
Without any financial inducement, wind farm developers would not increase capacity beyond the optimal point, and some thermal generation will continue to exist. Thermal generation can be completely excluded only if all the fixed costs of wind energy can be recovered through the RET. This is impractical and beyond the intentions of the policy. 
So as it stands, our modelling suggests the RET is not a good way to increase the amount of wind generation in the electricity network. However our conclusions are different for other renewable energy sources such as hydro, which also have near zero marginal costs but have much longer lifetimes.
Therefore, where and if possible, we need to use a mix of technology, rather than overemphasising wind generation technology.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gennadi-kazakevitch-90201" target="_blank">Gennadi Kazakevitch</a> is deputy head, Department of Economics, Monash University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/gennadi-kazakevitch-90201" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Are wind farms messing up the electricity market?

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GUEST OBSERVER
The debate about wind farms is clearly not over yet.
Last week Australia’s National Heath and Medical Research Council awarded A$3.3 million to fund two new health studies: one to measure the effect of infrasound on sleep quality, balance, mood and cardiovascular health; the other to determine whether low-frequency sound from wind farms can disrupt sleeping patterns.
Given the past few years of prickly wind turbine politics, this has predictably caused quite a stir.
On one side, the usual suspects sought to capitalise on the NHMRC’s announcement. Independent senator John Madigan called for a moratorium on new wind farms, wanting all projects to be put on hold as a “precaution”.
Coalition senator Chris Back leapt to support his call, perhaps unsurprisingly given that he (along with Madigan and fellow senators Nick Xenophon, David Leyonhjelm and Bob Day) have been described by Sydney University public heath professor Simon Chapman as “sworn enemies of infrasound".
In contrast, many in the scientific community expressed their disappointment at what they see as a waste of millions of research dollars. They referred to studies from around the globe that have consistently failed to find solid evidence for a connection between infrasound and poor health.
However, funding further research on the possible health impacts of wind turbines is consistent with the NHMRC’s own conclusions in a February 2015 statement, which said:
"Given [people’s] reported experiences [of ill health] and the limited reliable evidence, NHMRC considers that further, higher-quality research is warranted."
So the nation’s largest, most respected and most trustworthy medical research funding body actually agrees that more research is a good idea.
<h2>Down tools?</h2>
Tempting though it is, this piece isn’t about rehashing the current evidence of the health impacts – real or imagined – of wind turbines. That’s been done already and will clearly continue for a while yet.
What’s more interesting, to me at least, is this appeal for a moratorium, and the more general question of how useful a tool it is for making decisions about overtly science-based issues.
Madigan’s call is a typical invocation of the precautionary principle. This asserts that if there are reasonable (that is, evidence-based, scientific) grounds to believe something new might be unsafe – or at least presents risks that unacceptably outweigh the potential benefits – then we should not proceed with the new thing.
On the surface, it’s hard to argue with that.
But when it comes to wind turbines, there is nothing to suggest that Madigan, Back and like-minded folks will consider any level of risk acceptable.
Imagine for a moment that these new studies find no statistically defensible evidence to link infrasound to human ill-health. Will those calling for a moratorium accept the results and declare wind turbines safe (or at least safe enough to lift a ban)?
I suspect not. It looks to me as if what they are actually demanding is “proof of safety”, rather than evidence of “acceptable risk”. This is, of course, impossible. To use an oft-quoted example, we can’t prove that orange juice is 100 percent safe, yet it remains defiantly on our supermarket shelves.
I’d wager a year’s salary that Madigan and friends would declare any “acceptable risk” results to be insufficient, too short-term, or generally just biased and inadequate, and demand that yet more research is done.
The naysayers are not looking for counter-evidence to their claims, most probably because there are things about wind farms that they simply do not like. If they have been unswayed by the research showing no evidence of harm so far, it seems unlikely two more studies will change their minds. 
But what about us down at the science end of town? As noted on The Conversation last year by my colleagues Jacqui Hoepner and Will Grant, “if a credible, scientifically rigorous study were to show a link between wind turbine operation and health effects, it should absolutely be taken seriously”. Agreed!
So for argument’s sake, let’s imagine that these new studies do end up producing empirically valid results that clearly suggest that infrasound from wind turbines can cause people harm. Would we science-loving citizens be prepared to bow our heads and accept the evidence; to admit that Madigan and his cohorts did the right thing by calling for a moratorium?
I’d like to think that I would. But I also imagine myself demanding more research, and I’m confident most other science-positive folks would, too. In our defence, though, we would of course be looking for evidence confirming the existence and likely extent of the harm, rather than seeking proof of some mythical, absolute guarantee of safety.
<h2>Precautionary tale</h2>
So what good will more, precautionary-principle-inspired science do? In reality, probably very little.
For one thing, practical, policy-related action can rarely wait for “all” the evidence to be in before decisions are made and actions taken (assuming such a magical, perfect-evidence situation could ever arise). Invoking the precautionary principle is not likely to simplify this situation.
Far from making decisions more evidence-based, the calls for a precautionary approach are liable to entangle us more deeply in the politics of decision-making. It’s blisteringly naïve to believe that when applied “correctly”, the precautionary principle will refocus warring factions’ attention on noble considerations like gathering sufficient, acceptable evidence and using this to guide us to the most objective solutions.
In fact, it’s arguments over what constitutes the right kind – and sufficient amounts – of evidence that lie at the heart of such disagreements, not what the evidence itself shows. Many people call for evidence-based policy – but when it’s the evidence itself that is up for debate, it’s important (as my colleague Will Grant has quipped) actually to have evidence-based evidence.
So how will this issue play out from here? Here’s my guess:
• a moratorium will probably not be called
• the new research projects will be conducted
• based on current available evidence, they will probably find little to support the idea that wind turbines located more than than 1,500 metres from humans have measurable negative health effects
• scientists will say “I told you so”
• Senators Madigan et al, should they still be around, will call for yet more research.
 
Rod Lamberts is deputy director, Australian National Centre for Public Awareness of Science, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rod-lamberts-60" target="_blank">here</a>.
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