Rose Bay is emerging as one of Sydney’s most active suburbs for development, as developers respond to demand driven by the suburb’s ageing population.

More than 20 per cent of Rose Bay residents are aged 65 and over, according to the latest ABS census data. Combined with more favourable planning schemes introduced in recent years, new development activity in the suburb has accelerated.

Fresh off the back of a $173 million sale of what was marketed as “one of the largest sites ever amalgamated so close to Rose Bay Village,” created by 12 homeowners joining forces to combine nearly 6,000 sqm bordering Wilberforce Avenue and Dover Road, more than $200 million worth of development applications has been submitted in the suburb in the past month alone.

Aligned with the Rose Bay Place Plan 2023–2028, which identifies Wilberforce Avenue as a strategic location for new housing in response to local demographic shifts, Lewin Capital has lodged plans for a new $40 million project, also on Wilberforce. The proposal seeks to deliver 32 apartments, a mix of sizes designed to cater to a broad demographic range, including downsizers and key workers, with both smaller and family-sized units on offer.

<img alt="12 Wilberforce Avenue ROSE BAY NSW" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e314fb24-2e53-4808-8411-d6e7c5fee2ea" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Plan%20-%20Photomontage%20-%20DA2025%20449%201%20-%2012-18%20Wilberforce%20Avenue%20ROSE%20BAY%20%281%29.JPG?VersionId=XX.AXChH4Kmv.kOB03suE8lenQ1NlqUe" />

Architecturally, the scheme adopts a measured approach to height and massing, stepping down at the rear to integrate with adjacent residential properties while forming a defined medium-density edge to the Rose Bay Centre.&nbsp;

“The proposed design for 12–18 Wilberforce Avenue, Rose Bay is a well-mannered apartment building in a mid-block position on a quiet street,” the Urban Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mhn-design-union">MHN Design Union</a> (MHNDU) states.&nbsp;

“It will form part of a new living environment in this highly desirable location.”

Builder-developer HSN Property Group is also bringing density to the same pocket, planning 54 two- and three-bedroom apartments that will also benefit from the recent Low and Mid-Rise Housing Reforms introduced under the NSW Housing SEPP. 14 of the apartments will be dedicated affordable under the SEPP in the $96 million proposal.

“The site’s location and context make it well suited to support a more diverse and sustainable residential offering in the area,” the developer stated in community consultation materials.

<img alt="HSN" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2976efc3-db69-4013-84ef-5acc05bc6f66" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-08%20at%201.14.27%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=A35N4_u2HA7uc_eiLAQedcHdsY_L4ywL" /> 
The plans by HSN for 2-16 Spencer St, Rose Bay

The architecture, led by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/mhn-design-union">MHNDU</a>, reflects a "contemporary design approach sensitive to the character of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/rose-bay-nsw-2029" target="">Rose Bay</a>." Communal amenities will include a wellness area with a pool and sauna, a gym, a wine lounge, and landscaped spaces with barbecue facilities.&nbsp;

Fyve Developments is breaking into the eastern suburbs for the first time with their $32 million new development in Rose Bay. They are planning 19 apartments on Dover Lane.

Designed by PBD, the new project will comprise four two-bed apartments and 15 three-bed units.

<img alt="Fyve" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="91ec4820-1e05-4598-8d27-9df42234a52c" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-08%20at%201.23.42%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=VtH0oa48nJcvXGiXqjbHJvtYY6zWdIC7" /> 
Fyve's plans on Dover Lane.

Luxcon is also back in the suburb, having previously delivered The Aristocrat back in 2020. They have filed plans for 17 three-bedroom apartments on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/2-8-cooper-street-double-bay-nsw-2028">Cooper Street</a>.

Fortis wants to deliver <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/23-31-dover-road-rose-bay-nsw-2029">49 apartments on Dover Road</a>, an $86 million development. That adds to their <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/10-12-ian-street-rose-bay-nsw-2029">Ian St, Rose Bay development</a>, which they will likely launch next year.

Joel Robinson

Rose Bay apartment market fires up with $200m in new developments filed

Leading Sydney developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/deicorp">Deicorp</a> has recorded a strong market response at the launch of The Avenues, its $874 million East Zetland precinct.

On its recent launch they sold close to $18 million, predominantly to owner-occupiers, more specifically to families who wanted to be closer to kids and grandkids.

&nbsp;

Apartments sold ranged from $1.8 million to $1.97 million for two bedrooms, and $2.12 million to $2.62 million for three bedrooms.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146262 project_image_fid=357150]

Located four kilometres from the CBD, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-avenues-zetland-130-joynton-avenue-zetland-nsw-2017">The Avenues</a> is transforming a 2.87-hectare site into a pedestrian-friendly urban neighbourhood comprising 574 residences across nine buildings designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/candalepas-associates">Candalepas Associates</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fk-australia">FK</a>.&nbsp;

Surrounded by tree-lined, walkable “avenues”, the precinct’s more than 800 sqm of ground-floor retail brings a lively, Paris-inspired streetscape to the heart of East <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/zetland-nsw-2017">Zetland</a> and will directly service nearby amenities and the surrounding residential community. 
&nbsp; 
The Avenues will also feature build-to-rent and purpose-built student housing in partnership with Scape, supporting key workers, students and long-term renters in this high-demand corridor.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146262 project_image_fid=357154]

Deicorp will also contribute more than $16 million to open space improvements, including upgrades to Woolwash and Biyanbing Parks, with The Avenues designed to strengthen pedestrian connections to Green Square Station and Gunyama Park.&nbsp;

Deicorp Founder, Fouad Deiri OAM, said a clear trend was evident, with purchasers driven by proximity to family and lifestyle essentials.&nbsp;

“We’ve seen a clear trend of parents wanting to live close to adult children and students, as well as interstate and international buyers seeking to reconnect with family in Sydney’s inner south,"&nbsp;Deiri said.

“This early sales performance reflects the strength of East Zetland as a connected, high-amenity location and the appeal of homes designed with long-term liveability in mind. Many of these early-stage buyers are repeat Deicorp purchasers, too."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=146262 project_image_fid=357165]

Zetland is one of the top suburbs in Australia to experience an increase in housing density, with its population growing by 24 per cent in as little as three years to over 15,600 residents. According to REA, 197 units were available last month, with over 2300 buyers interested, demonstrating the strong demand for this inner southern pocket of Sydney.&nbsp;

Deicorp’s strong result at The Avenues follows significant spring momentum across its portfolio, with $63 million in combined sales recorded across recent launches for Showground Pavilions in Castle Hill and Falcon &amp; Alexander in Crows Nest.&nbsp;

Construction on The Avenues commenced in June, with the construction period expected to generate 2,700 jobs. Across its portfolio, Deicorp currently has 5,102 apartments under construction, playing a leading role in shaping connected, liveable communities across Sydney.&nbsp;

Its expanding portfolio of Metro-linked developments includes Tallawong Village, Kings Bay Village in Five Dock, Hyde Metropolitan, and Showground Village, all advancing the company’s long-term commitment to creating vibrant, transit-oriented neighbourhoods.&nbsp;

Apartments start from $955k for a one-bedroom, $1.48 million for a two-bedroom, and $2.04 million for a three-bedroom, all with car parking.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=146262]

Family proximity and connectivity fuel $18m in first-day sales at Deicorp’s East Zetland precinct, The Avenues

Leading property developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/abadeen-group">Abadeen</a> has officially completed ENSO, its premium boutique residential development in Neutral Bay Village.

Designed by internationally acclaimed architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada</a> and built by Credence Constructions, ENSO draws inspiration from the Japanese Buddhist philosophy of the same name, a symbol of elegance, strength and enlightenment.

Comprising of just nine one-, two-, and three-bedroom residences, with a full floor four-bedroom penthouse, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/enso-neutral-bay-34-grosvenor-street-neutral-bay-nsw-2090">ENSO</a> combines sculptural form and refined materiality with a minimalist design language that evokes calm, balance and timeless sophistication.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=109705 project_image_fid=355893]

With the occupation certificate now in hand, Abadeen will soon welcome the first residents into their new residences, perfectly timed for Christmas.

Positioned along Grosvenor Street, which has emerged as one of the North Shore’s most exciting dining and lifestyle destinations, ENSO residents will enjoy a true village experience surrounded by Sydney’s best food, retail and culture. Grosvenor Street is home to brand new restaurants including Bombay Bloomers, Pocket Pizza and Fujitori Yakitori &amp; Sake Bar.&nbsp;

Within a one-minute walk of ENSO, a new retail precinct is introducing a curated line up anchored by Dan Murphy’s, together with Bodylove Pilates and the award winning Wholegreen Bakery. Coles is also close by, adding everyday convenience just minutes from the CBD.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=109705 project_image_fid=355895]

“ENSO represents the next chapter in Neutral Bay’s evolution,” said Justin Brown, Executive Chairman and Founder of Abadeen.

“You have Koichi Takada’s architecture on one side of the street and a vibrant new village scene on the other. It is the meeting point of design, lifestyle and community. This project captures what we value on the Lower North Shore: sophistication with a genuine sense of convenience where people want to live.”

Each residence is crafted with premium finishes, generous floorplans and seamless indoor to outdoor living, embracing Takada’s philosophy of organic, nature inspired design. Interiors are composed of soft, neutral palettes and tactile materials that promote calm and connection.

“This is a proud milestone for Abadeen,” Brown added. “ENSO has been carefully designed and delivered, a true boutique project that reflects our ongoing commitment to elevating the architectural and lifestyle experience across Sydney’s Lower North Shore.”

With construction complete and final residences available, ENSO presents a rare opportunity to move into a brand-new home within an established, connected and increasingly vibrant village community.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=109705]

Staff Writer

Abadeen completes ENSO in the heart of Neutral Bay’s fast-evolving village precinct

&nbsp;Developer CPDM is continuing to put its stamp on Sydney's Lower North Shore.

Just a few months after seeking to develop <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/first-look-neutral-bay-transformation-continues-as-new-eight-level-building-pitched">25 apartments in Neutral Bay</a>, CPDM is now looking to deliver something similar in the neighbouring suburb of Cremorne.

They have gone through the NSW Government's Housing Delivery Authority to file a State Significant Development Application for 32 apartments across an eight-storey building at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/57-61-reynolds-street-cremorne-nsw-2090">57–61 Reynolds Street</a>.

Like the majority of development applications being submitted in recent months, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cpdm">CPDM</a> is looking to trigger the affordable housing uplift under the&nbsp;State Environmental Planning Policy (Housing) 2021 guidelines.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/pbd-architects">PBD Architects</a>, who have worked on the project since its inception. They noted in their design statement that the Reynolds Street frontage more closely resembles the scale of multi-residential buildings in the area, while Gerard Lane has a smaller scale to match the presentation of the existing buildings on that lane.

<img alt="First look: CPDM plans eight-storey affordable apartment project in Cremorne" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7ecfa010-8db9-42de-9b8e-0e52d46fe708" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Cremorne%20podium.png?VersionId=EajgchvITAagKkiAksQYy3SAIVpI.i.t" />

The majority of the 32 apartments will be three-bedrooms (27), with the remaining five two-bedroom units.

The building will include two rooftop communal spaces and two basement levels with 51 car parking spaces allocated for residents, visitors, motorcycles, and bicycles.

PBD noted that the project’s “density is thoughtfully planned to be sustainable, capitalising on existing and future infrastructure, access to public transport, the site’s cultural and community value, and its environmental attributes”.

CPDM has been steadily growing its development footprint across Sydney’s North Shore, with previous and current projects in Lindfield, Gordon, and Neutral Bay. Their recent application in Neutral Bay, also designed by PBD Architects, similarly leveraged the Housing SEPP bonus provisions to deliver a mid-rise apartment building with affordable housing units.

First look: Developer CPDM doubles down on Sydney's Lower North Shore

The first new apartment development in Gladesville to offer 10-year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) protection is soon to welcome its residents.

Respected boutique developer Geron Property has partnered with the Gladesville RSL to deliver Jordan Hall Residences, named after the historic Jordan Hall building on Western Crescent, on the edge of the town centre.

The façade of the original 1938 building has been kept intact by the development team. The Inter-War Free Classical community venue is known for its Art Deco parapet, dual-tone brickwork, and decades of RSL Youth Club activity. The building once anchored the view down Jordan Street, and its façade will continue to do so as the hall becomes the architectural centrepiece of the new residential project.

Innovate Architects has designed a new structure that rises behind Jordan Hall, featuring 29 large-scale apartments that are setting new benchmarks in the suburb.

Local construction company Gauge is putting the finishing touches on the apartments, which are designed primarily for local downsizers. Each apartment features three bedrooms, kitchens with integrated Miele appliances, generous natural light through strategically placed windows, and private outdoor areas.

Beyond the private spaces, the project includes communal areas on the first and seventh levels, positioned to take advantage of Gladesville’s elevated outlook.

<img alt="Jordan Hall" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f696a00e-e624-4af7-809c-e10cbf5fb051" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-04%20at%2012.17.43%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=AwWxRbU92OMu0kMwFzaTbFO3qtwEr7go" />

Jordan Hall will be the first new apartment development in Gladesville with Latent Defects Insurance, a new insurance policy that gives peace of mind for off the plan buyers when it is secured by the builder or developer of the new building.

Offered by Resilience Insurance, LDI is a first-right insurance product that protects purchasers from structural or waterproofing defects within the first 10 years after completion. Geron Property's adoption of the policy aligns with broader industry movement toward more rigorous assurances and supports buyer expectations around long-term asset performance.

Geron Property, led by Tom Zarimis, is intending on taking out the policy on its next project, a luxury development on Cronulla's Gerrale Street.

Zarimis appointed&nbsp;Adobe Property Agents to sell Jordan Hall Residences. There are just a handful of apartments remaining.

Read more: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/what-is-latent-defects-insurance-and-is-it-bringing-confidence-to-the-off-the-plan-apartment-market">What is Latent Defects Insurance and is it bringing confidence to the off the plan apartment market?</a>

Geron Property, Gladesville RSL, approach completion of Jordan Hall Residences, Gladesville's first new apartment building with Latent Defects Insurance

Utilities

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/73850/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The privatisation of urban infrastructure in Australia is an ironic story.
The vehicles of urban infrastructure – the utilities and the state-owned enterprises – were so central to the life of cities that they became perfect entities for private sell-off.
We now live with the consequences of the sell-off.
The utilities flourished in Australia as a nation-building exercise following the second world war. The Bretton Woods agreement entrenched Keynesian fiscal behaviours across the Western world. 
The utilities thrived on the willingness of governments to raise capital for public works. They were also central to the development of state capacity and the assembly of a career-based professional public service. As part of the social compact, the public accepted reasonable user pricing for the availability of water, energy, public transport and telecommunications services.
Hence, the utilities and the state-owned enterprises led the roll-out of urban infrastructure in the second half of the 20th century. This roll-out shaped the nature of Australian urban life, its format and flows.
But then fiscal crisis of the state descended in the 1970s and 1980s. The sell-off of public assets was seen worldwide as a solution to state indebtedness. Arguments that private enterprise could deliver infrastructure services more efficiently added impetus. 
<h2>A wholesale transformation</h2>
Few governments resisted the sell-off urge. Australian governments, state and federal, participated in the sell-off, though in a stuttering manner. Through time, however, the change has been substantial.
Abbott and Cohen calculate that the output of state-owned enterprises in Australia in 1989-90 accounted for 7 percent of GDP, 9 percent of total employment, and 14 percent of gross fixed capital expenditure. 
By 2011-12, the output of state-owned enterprises had fallen to 1.3 percent of GDP. Their gross fixed capital expenditure contributed only 1.8 percent of the nation’s total. The authors estimate that proceeds from privatisations in Australia since 1987 total around A$194 billion (in constant year 2000 dollars).
The sell-off commercialised and privatised a raft of assets: electricity generation and transmission, gas distribution, airports, ports and telecommunication. New assets went straight to private hands: motorways, public transport, renewable energy generation, and freight handling.
The shedding of public responsibility for infrastructure meant public investment in Australia as a share of GDP fell from more than 5 percent in the mid-1980s to well below 3 percent by the end of the 1990s.
<h2>What’s in it for investors?</h2>
There is much to understand about the sell-off. Here I focus only on why private investors are willing to pay extraordinary prices to acquire urban infrastructure assets.
The attraction of investing in an urban infrastructure asset comes from the infrastructure services being embedded in the daily flows of people, water, energy and information throughout a city. The flows of a city are remarkably ordered in terms of volume, direction and timing. 
How a city operates is dependent on the co-existence of decisions by infrastructure operators and users. The operators decide how and when services will be available. Households and firms decide what they will be doing across a 24-hour day and therefore how and when they will use the infrastructure services on offer.
Thus, the efficiency of infrastructure provision comes from the predictability of the flows of a city. These in turn come from a historical patterning and sequencing of behaviours by householders and firms as they read off and conform to each other’s movements.
An example is the relatively sympathetic structuring and sequencing of work hours and school hours. This ensures that public transport facilities are utilised more efficiently in peak hours, while the hours that parents and children spend together are made more convenient.
The embeddedness of infrastructure into city life means that revenue streams from user fees for infrastructure services are highly predictable and stable. And because transport, water and energy supply is usually monopolised, the householder has little choice but to continue as a consumer of an infrastructure service.
The books of a utility or state-owned enterprise, then, represent a discrete set of households well trained to pay their monthly bills. This is precisely the type of revenue stream that pension, insurance and sovereign wealth funds seek when faced with the peculiar problem of having surplus cash to lock away for at least the next two decades.
<h2>What did we lose in the sell-off?</h2>
Perhaps it was clever to have solved a government debt problem in Australia back in the day through a sell-off of assets to a new class of long-term investor. But as a consequence we have lost other things. 
Infrastructure as a planning tool to shape our cities is one. Revenue streams to subsidise needy customers or supply to remote locations is another.
And, critically, we have lost the opportunity for the state to revamp energy, water and transport systems to allow for innovative supply and demand formats – such as distributed electricity supply networks – that are more appropriate to a climate-threatened planet.
Long-term privatisation contracts, most of them closed to scrutiny, lock urban infrastructure provision into 20th-century formats.
The difficult task now will be their unlocking.
Phillip O'Neill is director, Centre for Western Sydney, Western Sydney University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/phillip-oneill-125643" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Stumbling into the future: living with the legacy of the great infrastructure sell-off

GUEST OBSERVATION

Electricity demand in Australia has barely budged since COVID-19 took hold. Many may be wondering: after months spent largely at home, are huge household power bills on the way?

The answer, largely, is no. But as the pandemic forces hundreds of thousands of Australians into unemployment, some will still struggle to pay their electricity bills.

A mass failure to pay would threaten the viability of electricity retailers. If some folded, this would reduce market competition and drive up energy costs for everyone.

So let’s take a look at how stay-at-home measures are affecting energy demand, and what the coronavirus pandemic means for electricity consumers in Australia.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329907/original/file-20200422-47820-1ttkzt1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

The unemployed may struggle to pay their electricity bills this winter. Julian Smith/AAP

A mixed bag

We’ve assessed how social distancing restrictions have affected both demand for electricity and “mobility” (the movement of people) in Australia, New Zealand, the US and the UK.

Interestingly, changes in electricity demand and mobility go together and were significantly different across the countries after strict stay-at-home rules were imposed in late March.

Grid-based electricity demand in both the UK and New Zealand has declined significantly (20 per cent and 15 per cent respectively). Demand is largely unchanged in Australia and has declined about 5 per cent in the US overall, relative to the baseline.

Among Australian states, electricity demand has declined in New South Wales by around 5 per cent, and increased slightly in Western Australia and Tasmania. Demand is largely unchanged in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland compared to the baseline.

The relative strictness of social distancing policies seems to be the main driver of changes in electricity demand. For example, unlike New Zealand, Australia’s construction industry was not subject to lockdown restrictions, which meant electricity use in that sector has continued.

Of course, many factors affect electricity demand, and further analysis is required to isolate the precise impact of social distancing policies.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329908/original/file-20200422-47832-1l6fjv6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

Electricity demand in Australia has changed little since stay-at-home regulations were introduced. Scott Barbour/AAP

Out and about

To crosscheck changes in electricity demand, we examined the change in the movement of people to retail, recreation and workplace locations as measured in Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. These reports use location history data from users to create a picture of how people are moving around the community.

Mobility changes are consistent with the change in electricity demand: since stay-at-home restrictions were imposed, falls in mobility have been about twice as large in New Zealand and the UK as in Australia.

Mobility in the US states of New York and California has declined more than in Australia, but less than in the UK and New Zealand.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329909/original/file-20200422-47841-wu09r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

An empty London street. Electricity demand and mobility in the UK has fallen since social distancing was enforced. SOPA Images

What to expect this winter

In Australia, electricity demand from households has increased slightly as millions of people stay at home, prompting warnings of bill shock. But activities such as boiling the kettle and cooking more often, and keeping lights on all day, do not make a big difference to consumption.

This will change in winter, when we need to keep our houses warm. Households using split-system air conditioners for heating can expect seasonally adjusted electricity bills to be around 10-20 per cent higher if they’re heating the house 24 hours a day, rather than just briefly in the morning and again in the late afternoon and evening.

But demand will vary greatly depending on weather and a home’s size, insulation, efficiency of heater and so on.

Averaged across all Australian households (and assuming social distancing regulations continue to apply in winter), we expect total residential electricity consumption to be a little higher this winter than in previous years.

Differences will be more pronounced in the colder states: Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and to a lesser extent New South Wales. The warmer states of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory will see little change.

Overall, slightly higher demand for electricity in Australian households over winter will probably offset lower commercial and retail demand.

<img alt="" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329910/original/file-20200422-47784-pzh8de.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" />

Many Australians are worried about bill shock this winter. Dan Peled/AAP

Threat to competition

​ 
While overall electricity demand might not shift much in Australia, skyrocketing unemployment may create a surge in the number of households struggling to pay their energy bills, even with Jobkeeper payments.

Long before the pandemic, regulators, governments, retailers and customer groups had worked to improve consumer protections such as hardship policies. These measures are now likely to be put to the test.

There are signs that electricity retailers are already anxious about looming non-payment. For example, some retailers have offered incentives for customers to take up direct debit, or cash-back for bills paid in advance.

Retailers pay for both the electricity produced, and its transport. If many thousands of customers can’t pay their bills, some retailers may become financially unviable. The smaller retailers have the weakest balance sheets and are most at risk.

But these small companies are the lifeblood of competition in Australia’s retail electricity markets. Losing them would, in time, translate into higher prices.

In Queensland, the government has announced assistance to electricty consumers in response to COVID-19.

If utility non-payment spirals and retailer viability is seriously threatened, governments and regulators might consider ways to share the risks more broadly, to protect competition and consumers. 
Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University; Kelly Burns, Senior Research Fellow, Victoria University, and Steven Percy, Senior research fellow, Victoria University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Staying at home for months is unlikely to lead to an eye-watering electricity bill

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75310/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">GUEST OBSERVER
Australia’s residential electricity prices are amongst the highest in the world so it’s not hard to see why customers have been up in arms about high prices.
Comparing the charges for electricity retail services in Australia and in other countries, we find Australia’s charges are much higher. The difference is particularly stark when comparing retailer charges in New South Wales with those in Denmark, Germany, Italy and Britain which have the highest electricity prices in Europe.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/04/4/energy.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/04/4/energy.jpg" width="600" height="513">
 
Residential electricity prices in Canada and the United States are typically less than half those in Australia and so the situation in Australia is even more damning in that comparison.
The prime minister’s recent request to the ACCC to review the retail end of the electricity market will put this part of the industry under the spotlight. This request follows the Victorian government’s appointment of a panel to review the Victorian retail energy market.
But rising concern about retail markets is not unique to Australia. In Britain, retail energy markets have received prime ministerial attention for many years. In what the British government described as the most significant review of its industry in the 30 years since privatisation, their Competition and Markets Authority concluded that significant changes needed to be made, although some ex-regulators disputed their estimates of the problem.
These reviews indicate changing attitudes in government. The Australian Energy Markets Commission reviews Australia’s retail energy markets every year and has consistently concluded that they are working well. Similarly, the Independent Pricing and Administrative Tribunal advised the New South Wales government last year that their retail energy market is working well. Evidently the Commonwealth and Victorian government are now seeking a second opinion.
<h2 class="caption">How Australia’s electricity retail market is set up</h2>
The business of retailing electricity is really finding out what customers want and then offering deals that meet those requirements. More specifically, it’s the business of procuring electricity and network services, acquiring retail customers, selling to those customers and then metering, billing and collecting revenue.
Analysis of regulatory filings shows that around 6.5 million of Australia’s 10 million households and small business customers (those in New South Wales, South Australia, South East Queensland and Victoria) can choose their retailer. These four deregulated markets are dominated by three retailers that also own sufficient generation to supply those customers.
After more than a decade of retail competition, the three big retailers typically still supply at least 80% of all customers in each regional market. While in some of the regional markets, customers can choose amongst 24 retailers, the new entrant retailers have invariably grown their customer base slowly, if at all, despite powerful incentives to the contrary.
Social services organisations, customer advocates and some independent energy economists have long voiced concerns about retail energy markets. Their concerns centre on the amount that the retailers’ charge, that customers are not happy and that electricity is becoming increasingly unaffordable.
The Grattan Institute recently published a blunt critique that went one step further. It suggested that not only are retailers charging a great deal, but that this is explained not by high costs but by excessive profits.
<h2 class="caption">Competition and consumer choice</h2>
The official reviews in Australia hitherto have taken the line that if customers don’t engage in the market they can’t complain. But electricity is complex and customers need skill and a great deal of effort to reliably evaluate the market.
Since it’s a repeat purchase, active engagement means ongoing effort. Even customers with the necessary skills seem to often conclude they have better things to do with their time, as evidenced in switching rates. Pervasive advertising and the profitability of the commercial switching websites provides additional evidence of the challenge new entrant retailers face in acquiring customers.
Why would it be so hard and expensive for new entrant retailers to attract customers if they were not loyal? Therein lies an explanation for Australia’s incumbent retailers’ apparently extraordinary profits.
Andy Vesey, the chief executive of Australia’s largest electricity retailer AGL described the retail market as one that penalises customer loyalty. While such candour is admirable, even hardcore market economists question the effectiveness of a market in which retailers profit most from their most loyal customers.
The issue is non-trivial: in its cost of living surveys, customer advocate Choice has found that electricity prices are consistently the top cost of living concern for households. Electricity poverty payments to deal with affordability problems, are understood to now be costing state governments several hundreds of millions of dollars each year.
<h2 class="caption">Next steps</h2>
While it has been a long time coming, the ACCC’s review in addition to the Victorian government’s review, is to be welcomed.
A great deal of effort will need to be made to get to the heart of the matter. Retail energy markets are complex and the amount that a retailer charges a customer for its services is not known for certain – it has to be estimated by subtracting the charges for network services, wholesale production, metering and environmental charges from the customer’s actual bill.
Not only do customers’ bills differ greatly but the components of the bill differ greatly for different customers and so obtaining reasonable estimates of retailers’ charges across the industry requires effort and care.
Fairly evaluating retailers’ offers and how much of their offers are explained by the retailers’ charge, is the place to start. Then finding out what customers are actually paying, and what retailers’ costs and profit margins are, is essential in assessing the nature and extent of market failure.
The reviews will need to cover tricky ground in assessing the economies of scale in retailing, and the value to electricity retailers of also owning electricity generation businesses that supply them. The extent to which high customer acquisition costs provide an advantage to the dominant incumbent retailers who don’t incur those costs unless they are seeking to expand their market share must also feature in the analysis.
There is reason to be hopeful about the ACCC and Victorian government reviews. Done well, they can allow sunlight into this part of the industry. As they say in regulatory circles, sunlight is the best disinfectant. 
Bruce Mountain is the director of Carbon and Energy Markets, Victoria University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bruce-mountain-141253" target="_blank">here</a>.
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