Around 400 additional homes could be built at Southwark Grounds on Port Road, lifting total site capacity from 1300 to around 1700 dwellings.

A recently approved code amendment would allow apartment towers of up to 14 storeys in some areas of Renewal SA’s redevelopment of the former West End Brewery.

Renewal SA Acting Chief Executive Shane Wingard said he welcomed the code amendment, with the increase in heights and homes making a positive impact on the supply of high-quality, well-connected housing close to the city.

“By going higher across some parts of Southwark Grounds, we are adding a substantial number of very well-located homes with little impact on project delivery time or planned open space,” Mr Wingard said.

Since the project officially launched in 2025, Mr Wingard said more than 12,000 enquiries had been received about living at Southwark Grounds.

“The very strong early interest we’ve seen since homes were first released in the precinct reinforces our plans to create more housing opportunities,” he said.

The Southwark Grounds code amendment was launched in December last year, with community engagement undertaken over five weeks from January.

It proposed increasing maximum building heights from eight to 14 storeys on the eastern section of Southwark Grounds, and to 12 storeys across the remainder of the site, with minimum building heights ranging from two to four storeys.

The code amendment was implemented through an Early Commencement policy in late January, allowing developers to quickly explore the viability of increased height and housing yield while other planning processes continue.

One of the first developers delivering apartment sites have already finalised redesigns to increase the number of apartments following the code amendment.

Samaras’ development adjacent to the future Colonel Light Park is now planning to deliver 125 apartments across 11 storeys, significantly greater than original plans of around 50 apartments across four storeys.

The developer is also exploring the potential for additional affordable housing outcomes.

Most of the apartments at Southwark Grounds will be delivered within a master-planned precinct on a large parcel of land on the eastern portion of the site, covering around two-thirds of its 8.4 hectares.

Wingard said detailed precinct planning over the coming months may identify further opportunities to increase yield further that could see total apartment numbers at Southwark Grounds, exceed this number.

Affordable homes at Southwark Grounds will also see a net increase, with Renewal SA maintaining its commitment to a minimum of 20 per cent affordable housing across the development.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Civil works have begun across the site, with construction under way on the first new roads surrounding a townhouse precinct in the south‑west corner of Southwark Grounds. This includes Renewal SA’s 17 Founder’s Row homes, which are on track for completion by Christmas.

“We expect to have people living at Southwark Grounds by the end of the year, so delivering roads and public spaces for those residents is among our highest priorities.”

Construction of 40 townhouses off Anderson Street, known as West Village and being delivered by Contour, is forecast to begin in mid‑2026. Kolabb’s Anderson Lane development will follow shortly after, delivering a further 26 townhouses.

Southwark Grounds is a state government‑led urban renewal project now set to deliver around 1,700 homes over the next decade.

Homes will be supported by a supermarket, a range of retail and hospitality offerings anchored by a revitalised Walkerville Brew Tower, a childcare centre, car parking and well‑connected public spaces.

Joel Robinson

400 new homes planned for Adelaide's former West End Brewery site

Brisbane developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/cavcorp">Cavcorp</a> has lodged plans for a new mixed-use residential development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/55-wyandra-street-teneriffe-qld-4005">55 Wyandra Street</a>, Teneriffe, anchored by an 85-metre public laneway designed to reconnect the suburb’s riverfront with the Gasworks precinct.

The buildings, known as Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane, would replace the existing Queensland Cotton head office site with a 15-storey residential tower transitioning to eight storeys toward Helen Street. The project has been designed by Plazibat Architects and lodged as a code assessable development application for 93 apartments across a 3,401 sqm mixed-use site within the Newstead and Teneriffe Waterfront neighbourhood plan.

Central to the scheme is the transformation of an existing service easement into a publicly accessible cross-block connection linking Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the new laneway will act as both a pedestrian shortcut and a landscaped civic space between the Teneriffe Riverwalk, ferry terminal, and Gasworks precinct.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="26e7f058-b065-4de8-b13d-a2b8cb64dfcc" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/bldg.png?VersionId=sELS0ZKYi361oYipUa1BIKfe_.DLZoFV" />

“The revised proposal delivers a legacy public-realm cross-block link, permanently secured for community use, transforming an existing private easement into a safe, high-quality pedestrian connection between the Teneriffe heritage riverwalk and the Gasworks–Long Island precinct,” the planning report states.

The laneway will sit beneath a large subtropical loggia integrated into the podium levels of the development. The design incorporates deep landscaping, water gardens, lobby spaces, business lounges, and ground-floor apartments to create what Cavcorp describes as a climate-responsive “urban verandah.”

The tower itself has been designed as a slender form with recessed floorplates and curved translucent corners inspired by contemporary Japanese architecture. The building height aligns with the Commercial Road precinct controls, which permit towers up to 15 storeys within proximity to Longland Street.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a8a17d40-43b6-4718-b3fd-67676fcbb485" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/pers%202_1.png?VersionId=i3VwDtp5AmL_8InW7w4qRbDFEpb744Jt" />

The project will comprise a mix of larger-format apartments aimed at owner-occupiers, downsizers, and families. The proposed apartment mix includes 11 loggia apartments across the lower levels, 50 four-bedroom Sky-Terrace apartments from levels three to seven, and 32 Sky-Pool Homes occupying the upper tower levels. The Sky-Pool Homes will feature private thermal plunge pools integrated into oversized balconies.

According to the application, the apartments are intended to reinterpret the scale and character of Teneriffe’s woolstore conversions and Queensland homes within a vertical residential format.

“The sky-pool homes build on Cavcorp’s previous projects and introduce a distinct apartment typology to Teneriffe, informed by both local and international precedent and responding to an identified market demand for enhanced safety, space and amenity,” the planning submission notes.

A major focus of the proposal is its five-level wellness and lifestyle offering, extending from the basement through to the rooftop.

Amenities proposed include a rooftop Swim &amp; Racquet Club with a 25-metre Olympic lap pool and tennis court, coworking spaces and libraries, golf simulators, wine storage, concierge facilities, business lounges, pet wash areas, and rooftop longevity-focused wellness spaces with spas, outdoor fitness zones, and landscaped terraces.

<img alt="First Look: Cavcorp unveils Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane plans for landmark wellness tower in Teneriffe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="944b352c-49b9-4247-a4c6-5967b4b69fda" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/amenity.png?VersionId=Ed_qKjAtMwFT.5gfl3jiA9QwdWxSMsaX" />

All parking will be concealed within basement levels accessed from Wyandra and Helen Streets. Cavcorp says the deep-basement engineering approach allows the entire ground plane to prioritise landscaping, pedestrian movement, and active frontage rather than vehicle infrastructure.

The development continues Cavcorp’s concentration in Newstead and Teneriffe, where the Brisbane developer has delivered a number of apartment projects including Lucent, Le Bain, and Luminare, as well as the Long Island Wellness Precinct nearby. Several of those projects have received national design and architecture awards, including recognition under Brisbane’s “Buildings that Breathe” program.

Cavcorp unveils wellness-focused Teneriffe House and Teneriffe Lane apartment buildings

Focus Group Investments has lodged plans for a new apartment development at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/64-70-hanover-street-fitzroy-vic-3065">64–70 Hanover Street</a> in Fitzroy, seeking to utilise the Victorian Government’s recently introduced Great Design Fast Track pathway to accelerate approvals for the project.

The proposal is among the latest developments to emerge through the state-led initiative, which was established to fast-track well-designed residential projects in activity centres and transport-connected inner-city locations. The pathway allows qualifying developments that meet elevated design and housing benchmarks to bypass traditional council planning timeframes and instead be assessed directly by the Department of Transport and Planning.

Designed by SJB, the development will comprise a mix of apartments above activated lower levels, with a strong focus on architectural articulation, landscaping, and communal amenity. The design response seeks to balance the industrial character of Richmond’s former warehouse precincts with a more contemporary residential form.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="abea51cc-d85b-479e-9aef-a589f3b37ca7" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/ground.png?VersionId=e1Kf8EyPWwyiVumtqQ4rM5S4GpOR3CCz" />

Proposed are 63 new dwellings, a wide ranging mix of studio, one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, and townhouses and duplexes. They will be spread across a part-three, part-eight storey building.

The Planning and Urban Context Report by Tract says the development is of an "exemplary architectural standard" and has been carefully crafted by SJB Architects.

"Dwellings&nbsp;will benefit from excellent access to natural light, cross-ventilation opportunities and extensive communal space," the report noted.

The architectural material highlights the project’s integration of landscaped elements and communal spaces throughout the building. The proposal also incorporates sustainability initiatives aligned with the Victorian Government’s push for higher-performing apartment developments under the fast-track program.

The Great Design Fast Track was unveiled by the Victorian Government in 2024 as part of a broader housing supply strategy aimed at accelerating the delivery of new homes. Projects assessed through the pathway must demonstrate high-quality architecture, sustainability outcomes, and housing diversity while being located close to public transport and existing infrastructure.

<img alt="First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Richmond apartments" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="afdbe834-8dc4-4a77-a943-ba07bc927348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_11.png?VersionId=0J657j.TaChAZfp93wqJYBTqSsnREJx2" />

Focus Group, founder and led by Paul De Lutiis, is increasingly active across Melbourne’s inner suburbs, targeting well-connected urban renewal locations suited to medium and higher-density residential development. The Fitzroy proposal continues that strategy, leveraging the area’s strong transport links, established retail amenity, and proximity to the CBD.

Fitzroy has been one of the most popular spots for developers and buyers in recent years. The likes of PACE Development Group, SMA Projects, Crema Group and Chapter Group, currently selling projects in the suburb.

First look: Focus Group Investments taps Victoria’s Great Design Fast Track for Fitzroy apartments

The Gold Coast Planning Committee has supported the preliminary approval for the Benowa Gardens Urban Village project following an extensive community consultation and assessment process.

The proposal will now proceed to a full council vote on June 2.

The application sought approval for a masterplanned urban village on the existing Benowa Gardens Shopping Centre site, combining new housing, retail, dining, health and lifestyle amenities within a walkable, integrated precinct.&nbsp;

The proposed redevelopment includes around 413 apartments integrated above a revitalised mixed-use centre featuring a full-line supermarket of 4,000 sqm, 6,000 sqm of specialty retail and dining space across around 30 retailers, a 7,000 sqm health and wellness precinct, and roughly 9,630 sqm of office and medical suites.&nbsp;

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fb36ae47-80bc-45f0-9914-31b0c7b6007d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C4%201121%20FI.jpg?VersionId=6mRKk2uU4r67TmTt39DKGUlvFRbTVqWa" />

The broader masterplan also includes very significant traffic and transport improvements, wide pedestrian walkways, upgraded pedestrian and cycle connections, and enhanced public areas designed to create a more connected and walkable community environment.&nbsp;

Centre owner Patrick Lu said the milestone reflected months of detailed planning, technical assessment and ongoing communication with local residents, businesses, schools and stakeholders.

“We appreciate the time, consideration and care Council officers and the Planning Committee have given this proposal throughout the assessment process,” Lu said.

“We also sincerely thank the local community for engaging with us, sharing feedback and participating in the consultation process over many months.

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="32fd1fc3-d0e6-485f-ac57-9916c9bcb818" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/PR26576%20Ashmore%20Road%20C5%201121%20FI_2.jpg?VersionId=fz8qQKDBLQ7MyFRc856Zccfbh9nFwLOe" />

“We understand projects of this scale bring questions and concerns, which is why we have worked hard to listen carefully, provide information transparently and continue refining elements of the proposal where possible.

“Our vision has always been to create a well-designed, community-focused urban village that responds to the changing needs of the Gold Coast, while delivering improved amenity, housing diversity, healthcare access and local lifestyle benefits.

“This proposal is about creating a genuine live-work-play environment where residents can access everyday services, schools, healthcare, dining, shopping and green space within walking distance, while also supporting local jobs and economic activity.”

<img alt="$1b Benowa Gardens Urban Village moves to Full Council following Planning Committee support" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="50dfbd04-590e-4fc6-983b-766880947867" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Dining%20Day%20Time%20-%20High%20Resolution.jpg?VersionId=BP7ZoKJ0DdL_8iRkkC8VVx99moICV6kg" />

Lu said the proposal had evolved significantly through consultation and technical review, particularly around traffic, pedestrian and student safety and neighbourhood connectivity.&nbsp;

Melissa Griffin, Director at Urbis, said the recommendation recognised the strategic importance of delivering more housing and services within established urban areas already supported by infrastructure.

“This proposal represents the type of thoughtful, integrated growth that planning frameworks across South-East Queensland are encouraging,” Ms Griffin said.

“The project seeks to place housing, retail, healthcare and employment opportunities together in a highly accessible location close to schools, transport and existing services.

“Importantly, the process has involved significant technical assessment and community engagement to ensure local issues and feedback were properly considered throughout the planning pathway.”

$1 billion Benowa Gardens Urban Village heads to council vote following Planning Committee support

Surfers Paradise is officially set for its first new residential development with a 45-storey skybridge connecting the two towers.

John Camilleri’s Celestino Developments has been given the green light by the Gold Coast City Council to develop its major beachfront precinct across its huge 4,000 sqm oceanfront site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">63–79 Garfield Terrace</a>, just five months after its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-exclusive-billionaire-winx-breeder-s-bold-two-tower-surfers-paradise-play-with-45th-storey-skybridge">submission in late 2025</a>.

The approved scheme will deliver two towers rising 55 and 48 storeys, connected by a skybridge positioned on level 45 that will house a range of resident-only wellness and entertainment spaces.

In its notice of approval, the Gold Coast City Council said the&nbsp;proposed overall built form has been designed to complement the scale, intensity and protect the adjacent amenity and surrounding streets through the use of varied setbacks, site cover and architectural elements.

<img alt="First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_75/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.48%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ADyPJ_TFbJvSU9wZFOiCBnlPtgF7VWqW" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dbi">DBI</a>, the development will comprise 275 apartments across the two towers, including a mix of two-, three-, and four-bedroom residences, as well as several penthouses. The apartments will sit above a landscaped podium featuring more than 90 metres of beachfront pool frontage, private resident lawns, lounges, and wellness spaces.

DBI said the design draws heavily from the movement and form of the coastal environment, with curving balcony lines and sculpted façades intended to soften the scale of the towers while maximising ocean outlooks and passive shading outcomes.

“The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience,” DBI said in planning documents submitted to the Gold Coast City Council.

The most distinctive element of the approved project is the skybridge linking the two towers at level 45. The elevated communal space is planned to include executive lounges, formal dining areas, wellness facilities, and panoramic ocean-facing outlooks.

“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI said.

At podium level, residents will have access to a suite of resort-style amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a yoga lawn, gymnasium, plunge pools, and treatment spaces. The beachfront pool has been designed with separate lap, lounge, and children’s areas extending across the width of the site.

The project will also introduce new food and beverage offerings along the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages, contributing additional activation to the beachfront precinct.

First look: Winx billionaire’s beachfront Surfers Paradise apartment development greenlit

Us Fed

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As the effects of the coronavirus continue to threaten the economy, the US Federal reserve has lowered interest rates to limit further impact. 
The Federal Reserve has lowered its key Fed Funds rate by 0.5 percent, the first unscheduled emergency rate cut since 2008, taking it to a range of 1-1.25 per cent. 
An openness to further easing has been signalled as G7 finance ministers and central bankers commit to use all appropriate policy tools to support growth in the face of the COVID-19 threat. 
The Fed is likely to cut rates by at least another 0.5 percent in the months ahead. And we continue to see the the likelihood of an RBA cut again next month <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rba-cut-interest-rates-at-march-meeting-to-record-low-0-5-per-cent">following the March cut</a>.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe cited the coronavirus nine times <a href="/expert-insights/finance/rate-cut-given-coronavirus-rba-governor-philip-lowes-march-2020-meeting-statement">in his brief meeting announcement</a>.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/3/4/Global%20interest%20rates.jpg" alt=""> 
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says monetary and fiscal policy easing is necessary to help minimise some of the worst economic fall out from the coronavirus outbreak (including liquidity and insolvency problems) and speed the eventual recovery.
"However, we still need to see signs that the coronavirus outbreak is coming under control – with eg a peaking in the daily number of new cases beyond China or say antivirals being successfully deployed.
"At present the daily number of new cases are still trending up in numerous countries outside China so it’s premature to say with much confidence that we have seen the low point in share markets.
NAB now expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at its March and April meetings.
"We are tentatively pencilling in 25bps at each of these meetings, which would take the fed funds target range to 0.5 to 0.75%," NAB advised.
"For now, we are assuming that the Fed will keep the fed funds rate at this level through our projection period (to 2021) but the risks around this are skewed towards it being more aggressive in the near term (but with a risk of partial reversal of the rate cuts further out assuming growth recovers in the second half of this year)."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

US Fed cuts funds rate by 0.5 per cent to help combat coronavirus economic threat

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/79340/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
This week the US Federal Reserve, as expected, raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 1-1.25 percent.
This was the third such hike in the last six months.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said:
Our decision reflects the progress the economy has made and is expected to make.
Yet not everyone was so jazzed about the decision. In a terrific piece former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers articulated <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/06/14/larry-summers-5-reasons-why-the-fed-may-be-making-a-mistake/?utm_term=.3fd9d567662c">“</a>5 reasons why the Fed may be making a mistake”.
And whether the Fed view or the Summers view is the better one has tremendously important implications for what the Reserve Bank should do here in Australia.
The nub of Summers’s concern revolves around the implicit model of the economy that the Fed is using – and whether it still works in the economic world in which we find ourselves.
The general worry with keeping rates too low, for too long, is that inflation will take off. In the past, policymakers have worried – with good reason – that waiting to raise rates until inflation starts rising much is dangerous because it can get out of control.
If one is not going to wait to see what happens to inflation, then one needs a way to predict the path of it. The traditional approach that policymakers have taken is to look at the relationship between unemployment and inflation – the so-called Phillips Curve – and predict future inflation based on unemployment.
Summers prefers what he calls the “shoot only when you see the whites of the eyes of inflation” paradigm. This – as the imagery suggests – involves waiting until the last possible point before raising rates. In other words, be really sure that the inflation is happening.
This makes sense if the old model is broken, and Summers makes a persuasive case that it is.
First, he points out that the Phillips Curve (the allegedly stable relationship) may not even exist. And even if it did, scholars have pointed out that it would be very hard to estimate statistically the Goldilocks point where unemployment is such that the rate of inflation is stable (the so-called Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment or NAIRU).
Second, Summers offers a different model of the world – at least in part. That model is one where advanced economies – like the US and Australia – are suffering from “secular stagnation”.
According to Summers, the implication for monetary policy of this are as follows:
there is good reason to believe that a given level of rates is much less expansionary than it used to be given the structural forces operating to raise saving propensities and reduce investment propensities.
I am not sure that a 2 percent funds rate is especially expansionary in the current environment.
Moreover, he sees asymmetric risk with getting it wrong, going on to say:
And I am confident that if the Fed errs and tips the economy into recession the consequences will be very serious given that the zero lower bound on interest rates or perhaps a slightly negative rate will not allow the normal countercyclical response.
Maybe the combination of a fire hose of global savings chasing too few productive investment opportunities has changed what level of interest rate can provide a serious boost to economic activity.
Which bring us to Australia. We, too, have relatively low unemployment by historical standards (the ABS just announced a drop in May to 5.5%), yet wage growth is remarkably low. Those two things happening together suggests that our old understanding of the labour market is off the mark. That low wage growth is a major driver of the low inflation we are also experiencing.
If Summers is right, and there isn’t some big point of difference between Australia and the US in this regard, then the unmistakable implication is that the RBA should probably cut rates – perhaps twice – later this year.
But there is that whole housing price thing in Australia. A rate cut could fuel further price rises which, as bad as that is for affordability, is also deeply problematic for financial stability.
Yet, if the Australian economy really does need a rate cut, and governor Philip Lowe holds steady because of housing price fears, then that could trigger a further slowing of GDP growth, put wages under even more pressure, and trigger a recession itself. And that would be bad news for financial stability, too.
Let’s see how the RBA handles that Gordian Knot.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a> is a Professor of Economics and PLuS Alliance Fellow at UNSW and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au">The Conversation</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Australia is facing an interest rates dilemma

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GUEST OBSERVER
As things go the Dutch election was probably the most important event last night - but I will start with the Fed.
Basically the Fed was more benign than expected. Yes they raised the Fed Funds interest rate by another 0.25 percent to a range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent on the back of ongoing improvements in the labour market and the US economy and progress towards the 2 percent target for core inflation.
The Fed continues to describe the risks to the outlook as roughly balanced and has taken to describing its inflation goal as “symmetric” which highlights that it’s not a hard goal but is to be achieved over the cycle (but no doubt there will be a lot of hot air devoted to what “symmetric” precisely means).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-16%20at%2011.15.16%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-16%20at%2011.15.16%20AM.png" alt="">
But the key was that the Fed did not signal a faster pace of tightening than had already been indicated. The median dot plot of Fed officials interest rate expectations remained unchanged at three hikes for this year and another three hikes for next year and the Fed continues to expect that future hikes will be “gradual” (albeit less gradual than in 2015 and 2016).
Of course this does not mean that the Fed poses no threat. Market expectations still look remarkably complacent being 1% or so below the Fed’s dot plot for 2019 and at some point in the next year the focus will shift to the Fed allowing its balance sheet to start running down (which will probably be achieved by letting bonds roll off as they mature rather than reinvesting the proceeds). This all points to a resumption of the bond bear market at some point.
But for now markets liked the Fed’s decision with bonds rallying, the US dollar falling and shares rallying as fears that the Fed would get more aggressive did not pan out. Support for this benign response also comes from the likelihood that headline inflation measures will soon peak as the low base for commodity prices a year ago starts to drop out of annual inflation measures and indications that the US economy is still far from booming (March quarter GDP growth looks like coming in below 2% again).
Up until around twenty years ago there was a saying that shares reacted to Fed hikes with “three steps and a stumble”, ie the first two Fed rate hikes had little impact but the third caused a stumble.
In the last two decades this appears to have changed such that that first hike causes weakness (as we saw around June 2004) but subsequent hikes are largely looked through because they are seen as reflecting better economic conditions and hence profits, enabling the bull market to continue until eventually monetary policy becomes tight threatening the economy and bringing an end to the bull market.
So far the US share market seems to be following this pattern, with share market falls around the first rate hike in December 2015 but taking the last two hikes in its stride. Back in the 2004-2006 tightening cycle rates were going up at every Fed meeting and it took 17 hikes to ultimately kill the bull market back then off. With rates starting much lower in this cycle and the process being far more gradual this time around we still have a fair way to go before US monetary policy becomes tight in a way that threatens the bull market in shares. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-16%20at%2011.16.28%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-16%20at%2011.16.28%20AM.png" alt="">
Meanwhile, in the Netherlands exit polls point to the current PM Mark Rutte’s Liberal Party winning 31 seats in the 150 seat parliament against Geert Wilders’ Eurosceptic Freedom party only getting 19. While the Liberal Party is down on 41 seats from the 2012 election it will lead negotiations to form a centrist coalition government (which usually takes months) and Rutte will most likely remain PM.
If confirmed this would be a far worse outcome for the Freedom Party than had been expected, particularly given that turnout was high at over 80 percent. It would mark the third election in the Eurozone in a row since the Brexit vote that has seen support for anti-Euro populists gain less support than expected: support for Podemos declined in the Spanish election straight after Brexit, the Austrian’s voted for the pro-Euro candidate in their December election and now the Netherlands look to have stuck with pro-Euro centrists as well. 
Maybe the Europeans have seen Brexit and Trump and decided that’s not for them! Popular support for the Euro remains high and this is clearly working against populist/nationalist parties and is likely to do so in the elections in France starting next month too. Italy is probably the biggest risk but the key message is that the risk of a break up in the Eurozone is overstated and this leaves Eurozone shares and peripheral bonds looking attractive. It’s also supportive of the Euro.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
 
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