Developers and apartment buyers have a narrowing window of opportunity before Brisbane's Olympic infrastructure pipeline begins competing directly with residential construction, pushing up costs, tightening labour supply and making new projects increasingly difficult to deliver.

While Brisbane's apartment market continues to benefit from strong population growth and limited housing supply, industry research suggests the years leading up to 2027 could prove to be the most important period for developers looking to secure builders and buyers hoping to purchase before the next wave of price increases.

A new Colliers report, Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games: Creating Solutions, highlights the scale of the challenge. While thousands of new homes are planned across South East Queensland, the Brisbane Olympic Athletes Village alone will deliver more than 10,500 beds during the Games before being converted into around 1,750 to 2,000 apartments. Equivalent to almost two years of typical inner-city apartment supply, the project will also absorb a significant share of the construction workforce and building materials.

The broader construction pipeline paints an even clearer picture.

Construction Skills Queensland's Horizon 2032 report forecasts Queensland's annual construction pipeline will average $69 billion over the coming years before peaking at $75 billion in 2027-28. Demand for construction workers is expected to increase by 17 per cent to almost 150,000 people, with the industry facing an annual shortfall of around 19,000 workers that could blow out to as many as 35,000 during the peak construction period.

The Olympic venues, athletes village and supporting infrastructure will account for billions of dollars worth of work across South East Queensland through to 2032, creating intense competition for labour at a time when Australia's residential construction sector is already under pressure.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150489 project_image_fid=373834]

Colliers Queensland Residential Director Andrew Scriven said the convergence of these projects is creating a clear window of opportunity for both developers and buyers.

"From 2027 onwards, the market will shift dramatically," Scriven said.

"Labour will increasingly be locked into government-led infrastructure and Olympic projects, which means private residential developments will face higher costs and tighter margins. The developers who move now are the ones most likely to get projects off the ground."

Scriven said the same dynamic would also affect buyers, with fewer apartment projects expected to launch once construction capacity tightens.

"If you're looking to change your lifestyle over the next five years, now is your window of opportunity to buy."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=150713 project_image_fid=373827]

Developers are already positioning themselves ahead of that window.

Following the success of Monarch at Toowong, Consolidated Properties is preparing to launch two new Brisbane apartment projects in the second half of 2026. They include <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gloriette-30-bedivere-street-yeerongpilly-qld-4105">Gloriette</a> at Yeerongpilly Green, a 25-storey tower within one of Brisbane's key Olympic precincts, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/castile-47-skyring-terrace-newstead-qld-4006">Castile</a>, a recently approved 25-storey riverfront development at 47 Skyring Terrace in Newstead.

Hutchinson Builders will deliver both projects, with early works already underway at Yeerongpilly and Newstead expected to commence later this year.

The timing comes as Brisbane's fundamentals continue to strengthen, with strong interstate migration, population growth and vacancy rates remaining below 1.5 per cent.

Colliers Queensland researcher Pragya Sharma said Greater Brisbane is forecast to require around 40,000 new apartments between 2021 and 2031.

"There's a real mismatch emerging between when housing is needed and when it will be feasible to build," Sharma said.

"As a result, the period leading up to 2027 presents a key window of opportunity for developers to secure approvals, funding and construction capacity, while buyers will have greater choice before supply constraints intensify."

Colliers research outlines a critical pre-2027 window to start residential projects before labour squeeze: now is the time to buy

Joel Robinson

Developers, buyers on watch in South East Queensland ahead of construction crunch: Colliers

It's taken less than nine months for developer Sherpa Property Group to sell out all 51 apartments in its <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-oasis-palm-beach-7-9-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Oasis</a> development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/palm-beach-qld-4221">Palm Beach</a>, over a year before its anticipated completion.

&nbsp;

Located at 7-9 Sixth Avenue, the $67 million development has resonated strongly with both local owner-occupiers and downsizers seeking high-quality apartments within walking distance of the beach, dining precincts and everyday amenities.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357458]

Christie Leet, Founder of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/sherpa-property-group">Sherpa Group</a>, said the sell-out reflected both the strength of the Palm Beach market and the success of Sherpa's community-first approach to development.

"The sell-out of Oasis is a fantastic outcome and reinforces the strong demand we're seeing for thoughtfully designed apartments in lifestyle locations," Leet said.

"From the outset, our vision was to create a development that genuinely enhanced the Palm Beach community while providing residents with exceptional homes and wellness-focused amenities.

"We've been incredibly encouraged by the level of local support throughout the campaign, 72.5 per cent of buyers are locals, with a significant proportion of purchasers choosing Oasis as their future home rather than an investment."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357463]

Construction is now progressing following development approval, with trusted builder LPS Group delivering the project and completion anticipated in Q3 2027.

Oasis forms part of Sherpa Group's successful Flourish collection, which has become recognised for its focus on wellness, community and elevated coastal living.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151449 project_image_fid=357469]

Residents will have private access to a rooftop amenity space featuring a pool, gym, sauna, steam room, hot and cold plunge pools, spa and barbecue facilities.

"The success of Oasis demonstrates that buyers continue to prioritise quality, location and lifestyle," Leet said.

"We are proud to have delivered a project that has resonated so strongly with the market and look forward to bringing Oasis to life for our future residents."

Sherpa recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-soleira-palm-beach-1150-1160-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Soleira</a>, its third instalment of the Flourish brand in Palm Beach following Flourish Oasis and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Amargo</a>.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151449]

Sherpa sells out Flourish Oasis in booming Palm Beach

Urban Property Group's <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-macquarie-park-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a> is leading the next phase of Macquarie Park's residential evolution, with the new apartment development set to become the first of several new apartment projects in the precinct to complete.

The 169-apartment building has now topped out ahead of its scheduled completion in the third quarter of 2026, as new residential investment continues to reshape one of Sydney's largest employment hubs into a true mixed-use precinct.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=368645]

Cox Architecture has designed La Vera to capture the best of its unique positioning on Talavera Road, orienting the building towards Lane Cove National Park.&nbsp;The building features a sculpted northern façade with flowing curves inspired by the surrounding landscape, while its city-facing elevation adopts a more structured architectural expression to maximise skyline views.

"The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park," <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> Director Felipe Miranda said.

"The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=358802]

La Vera offers a diverse mix of one, two, three, and four-bedroom configurations, with prices currently starting from $740,000. Buyers so far have been a mix of Sydney-based investors,&nbsp;metro commuters, owner-occupiers and downsizers from surrounding North Shore suburbs.

Both investors and owner-occupiers have been drawn to La Vera's proximity to Macquarie University, Macquarie University Hospital, Macquarie Centre and the Sydney Metro, infrastructure that supports both strong rental demand and a convenient lifestyle for residents.

The apartments feature full-height glazing, timber flooring throughout living areas, stone kitchen benchtops, SMEG appliances, floor-to-ceiling bathroom tiling and ducted air conditioning.

Residents will have access to a rooftop recreation level featuring a swimming pool, sauna, barbecue facilities and landscaped relaxation areas, complemented by additional communal space at ground level. Many apartments enjoy uninterrupted views across Lane Cove National Park, reinforcing the project's connection to its natural setting.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=364551]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly four decades of experience, holds a 4.5-star iCIRT rating and was Australia's first developer to introduce 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI). La Vera is the first apartment development in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/macquarie-park-nsw-2113">Macquarie Park</a> approved to offer the additional insurance protection, alongside a five-year warranty on SMEG appliances.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said the additional protection reflects changing buyer expectations in the off the plan market.

"Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share," Elias said.

Following completion of the building later this year, buyers will move into their apartments well before Christmas.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

La Vera closes in on completion as Macquarie Park continues residential transformation

Brisbane developer Red &amp; Co's decision to include dual key apartments in its debut Gold Coast apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/como-varsity-lakes-22-lake-street-varsity-lakes-qld-4227">COMO Varsity Lakes</a>, is proving to be one of the project's biggest drawcards, with buyers quickly snapping up the flexible residences.

More than half of the project's 36 dual key apartments have already sold, helping drive COMO beyond the 50 per cent sold mark within the first month of launch.

The strong response highlights growing demand for apartment designs that can adapt to changing lifestyles, with buyers increasingly looking for homes that accommodate multi-generational living, provide rental income opportunities or simply offer greater flexibility over time.

Located on the shores of Lake Orr, COMO will deliver 156 apartments across 16 levels, with the dual-key residences forming a limited release within the broader development.

Each combines a primary two-bedroom apartment with a fully self-contained studio on a single title, connected by a shared foyer and lockable internal door. The design allows owners to house ageing parents, adult children or guests while maintaining privacy, or lease the secondary residence to generate additional income.

Just 17 of the original 36 dual key apartments remain available.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=367096]

The innovative configuration combines two fully self-contained residences on a single title, typically comprising a primary two-bedroom apartment alongside a separate studio residence, connected via a shared foyer and lockable internal door.&nbsp;

The model is proving particularly attractive to owner occupiers navigating changing family dynamics and the realities of the current housing crisis.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363511]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/npa">NPA</a>&nbsp;CEO Andrew Erwin said dual key living was resonating strongly with modern buyers because it delivered both financial flexibility and practical lifestyle benefits.&nbsp;

“The housing crisis and rising cost of living are fundamentally changing how Australians think about home ownership,” Erwin said.&nbsp;

“Dual key apartments provide a genuine solution for families who want to stay connected while maintaining independence. Parents can help adult children save for a future home, ageing parents can remain nearby without moving into aged care, and owners still retain privacy and flexibility.

“Importantly, buyers are also recognising the financial advantages. It creates the opportunity to generate additional income from part of the home without the holding costs associated with owning a separate investment property.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363509]

Unlike traditional dual occupancy arrangements, the residences operate under a single title, meaning owners only incur one set of body corporate fees, council rates and holding costs.&nbsp;

The secondary residence can also evolve over time - functioning as guest accommodation, a home office, creative studio or private retreat before later becoming an income-producing asset.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/red-co">Red &amp; Co</a>&nbsp;Director and Co-Founder David Laverty said the strong early sales reflected growing buyer urgency and changing priorities within the market.&nbsp;

“Securing more than half of COMO’s residences within such a short timeframe is an outstanding result and a clear endorsement of both the design and location,” Laverty said.&nbsp;

“Buyers are responding to the combination of location, connectivity and amenity, but ultimately it’s value relative to other East Coast markets that is driving enquiry.”&nbsp;

“We’re also seeing strong interest from owner occupiers looking for homes that can adapt with them over time. Flexibility has become one of the most important considerations for buyers in today’s market.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135546 project_image_fid=363515]

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, COMO features a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom residences with 2.7-metre ceilings and larger-format floorplans aimed at owner occupiers, downsizers and lifestyle-focused buyers.&nbsp;

The development will feature an extensive rooftop recreation and wellness offering including a 25-metre lap pool, sundeck, barbecue and dining areas, gym, sauna, plunge baths, landscaped gardens, wellness spaces and rooftop pickleball and paddleball courts.

The remaining dual key apartments range from 137 sqm to 167 sqm and include generous three-bedroom layouts with separate self-contained studio accommodation and dual parking.&nbsp;

Erwin said the dual key concept represented a broader shift in how Australians would live in the future.

“People want homes that can evolve with their lives,” he said.&nbsp;

“A dual key apartment can suit a family today, support an ageing parent tomorrow, and potentially generate income later on. That adaptability is becoming incredibly valuable in the current environment.”

Prices currently range from $2,115,750 to $2,583,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135546]

Inter-generational living drives demand for COMO’s dual key apartments as housing pressures reshape buyer priorities 

Builder-developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ceerose">Ceerose</a> has doubled down on its Leichhardt ambitions, lodging its second State Significant Development Application (SSDA) in the suburb in the last six months.

Their newest proposal seeks to transform a former industrial precinct into a new residential community centred around the adaptive reuse of one of the site's heritage warehouse buildings.

The new project, on a 6,930 sqm block at&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/40-76-william-street-leichhardt-nsw-2040">40–76 William Street</a>, will bring more than 200 apartments to a suburb that has seen little to no new supply in recent years. It follows Ceerose's late 2025 SSDA for a mixed-use apartment project on nearby Parramatta Road, signalling the developer's growing investment in Sydney's Inner West.

Ceerose Founder Edward Doueihi told Apartments.com.au the developer’s long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West had given it a strong understanding of how the area has evolved and where its future opportunities lie.

“Ceerose has had a long-standing presence in Leichhardt and the Inner West, giving us a unique understanding of the area’s evolution and future potential,” Doueihi said.

“Having delivered projects throughout the region, we have witnessed the suburb’s transformation first-hand and understand the opportunities for its continued growth.”

Doueihi said that understanding also informed the planning process, with a comprehensive Stakeholder Engagement Outcomes Report prepared before the application was lodged.

The report identified the key issues and concerns raised by neighbouring residents and other stakeholders, allowing those matters to be considered and incorporated into the design where appropriate.

He said the delivery of additional housing would also play an important role in supporting the revitalisation of Norton Street and the Italian Forum.

“By increasing the local residential population, the development is expected to strengthen demand for local businesses, encourage further investment, and help restore the vibrancy that made the precinct a thriving destination in the early 2000s.”

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7258c54c-8167-479e-8361-2d5fca9915b4" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010B%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%202.jpg?VersionId=S9DQfxu_jpcB5LrAEYFUbyMzg5odW6i5" />

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, the redevelopment would involve the demolition of four existing industrial buildings while retaining and adaptively reusing the site's most significant warehouse. The retained structure would anchor a new residential precinct comprising five interconnected buildings arranged around a large central landscaped courtyard, with heights stepping from five storeys along the surrounding residential streets to 11 storeys at the William Street corner.

According to the Architecture Design Report by Woods Bagot, the proposal "seeks to create a residential village centred around a generous green heart while celebrating the site's industrial heritage through the adaptive reuse of the existing warehouse building."

The development would comprise 203 apartments, with 188 proposed as build-to-sell residences, alongside 15 affordable housing apartments.

Rather than treating the retained warehouse as a standalone heritage object, Woods Bagot has sought to weave the site's industrial history throughout the masterplan. The proposal retains the north and west facades of the landmark corner warehouse, while new buildings reinterpret the site's brick-and-steel industrial language through their material palette and architectural expression.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9e8c64c2-881b-49e1-8c90-6b6acaaa45b6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010C%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%203.jpg?VersionId=Qm8_8H_Xrg_sc4Mdjc59vlAcKF_5wRTb" />

The design is organised around what Woods Bagot describes as a "green heart", a landscaped communal open space that reinstates the leafy character removed when the site became an industrial storage facility. A new pedestrian laneway running through the site would improve permeability between William, North and Francis streets, linking residents through landscaped public spaces while activating the ground plane.

Residents would have access to communal gardens and shared recreation areas distributed throughout the development. Sustainability has also been prioritised, with the project targeting an average 7.9-star NatHERS rating. Proposed initiatives include rooftop solar generation, rainwater harvesting, passive solar design, naturally ventilated lobbies, extensive cross-ventilation and the reuse of existing building fabric to reduce embodied carbon.

The adaptive reuse strategy became a defining feature of the application after heritage investigations found only one of the site's industrial buildings could feasibly be retained. The Heritage Impact Statement concludes that preserving the key warehouse façades while referencing the site's industrial character throughout the new development provides an appropriate balance between renewal and conservation.

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="efffafdb-594f-4e2b-a067-921fd51c05e1" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010D%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%204.jpg?VersionId=DPmE4.k16YRt0i27hEZVtJAffarpvUfx" />

"Retention and adaptation of the site buildings has been explored but found not to be feasible except for the tallest building, whose street facades will be retained," the heritage report states.

"The proposed building will interpret the brick and steel character of the subject site, including reuse of some components and construction of a large 'sawtooth' structure in the proposed open space."

<img alt="First look: Ceerose returns to Leichhardt with 203-apartment adaptive reuse proposal at former warehouse site" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3bfef2b5-83f5-40cd-9cab-767092f34266" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%2010E%20-%20CGI%20-%20View%205.jpg?VersionId=7asb3i_ql4ybbuJOUb5UHBEIy0Q9t.DF" />

The William Street site is located around 300 metres from Leichhardt North Light Rail station and a short walk to Norton Street's retail, dining and hospitality precinct. The surrounding area has increasingly become a focus for urban renewal given its proximity to public transport and the Parramatta Road corridor.

Doueihi founded Ceerose in 1998 and has grown the business to become one of Sydney's more active apartment developers in recent years, with completed projects including The Alex Collective in Alexandria, Abbie's Lane in Annandale, and the award-winning Munro House in Elizabeth Bay. They are currently delivering Belgravia, 17 luxury apartments in Potts Point.

First look: Ceerose doubles down in Leichhardt with adaptive reuse of former warehouse site

United Kingdom

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
<div> </div>
<div>As Australia gets back to business I've been following the UK government's inept handling of the Coronavirus with increasingly wide-eyed incredulity.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The cost to date has now been estimated at a mind-boggling £284 billion according to the government's own spending review this week. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you were wondering what exactly has been achieved by this interplanetary level of spending (so far), then you wouldn't be Robinson Crusoe there.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the Brits expected to announce approval of the rollout of a Biontech/Pfizer jab as early as this coming week then the UK's effective lockdown will likely continue through until the new year, accounting for thousands more blameless small businesses.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>To add insult to injury the botched and inoperable test-and-trace system has alone cost an absurd £22 billion, single-handedly erasing years of pointless austerity measures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Britain's public sector net debt will soon be well above 100 per cent of GDP and back to the highest level since the post-war years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Higher taxes will doubtless be back on the agenda soon enough to pay for it all, but this time around capital will likely up and leave. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just the Brexit debacle to finish off now before the incumbent PM gets ushered out of politics...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Money printer go #Brrr...</div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's remarkable how quickly views have changed in respect of quantitative easing and related stimulus. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fears of inflationary spirals in the financial crisis aftermath have been replaced the money printers being embraced with joyful abandon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Grant Williams of RealVision and TTMYGH rustled up this belter of an infographic this week to compare the scale of the Covid-19 stimulus to that of the 2008 financial crisis. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Z8fJVDAqWXQ/X8P9QxCvh9I/AAAAAAAA5h8/sEVcHmlohJg_2QA_I1bHON3L0gje6t2GQCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h466/TTMYGH.jpg" width="640" height="466" data-original-height="732" data-original-width="1005"></div>
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</div>
<div>With interest rates mired at zero for the foreseeable future capital has been flowing into real estate, stocks, and cryptocurrencies. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Lucky country</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Numerous medical journal studies are now showing how Vitamin D can play an important role in reducing Covid-19 infection.</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ox9pY_ZatEc/X8QAlWZKLaI/AAAAAAAA5iI/LA-014I42p4wevQTXCa4xXcCX7j1XF3HgCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h266/RP.jpg" width="640" height="266" data-original-height="302" data-original-width="728"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>This might go some of the way to explaining Australia's near elimination of the virus, with zero deaths or cases in ICUs or on ventilators for a long time now. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Whatever the reasons, it's looking increasingly likely that Australia has dodged another sizeable bullet and will become a remarkably sought-after destination once its international borders are reopened.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Data due to be released this week will show that the Aussie economy began to expand again with output growing by about 3-4 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, with another pumping current account surplus, and housing prices rising by +0.6 per cent in the month of November. </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

The UK; a case study on botched COVID-19 stimulus: Pete Wargent

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GUEST OBSERVATION
In the midst of England’s housing crisis, when many young people face <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/09/rents-in-uk-will-rise-for-next-five-years-experts-predict" target="_blank">rising rents</a> in major cities, alternative forms of accommodation have emerged. <a href="https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/plpg.pdf" target="_blank">Property guardianship</a> is one example, where disused buildings are converted into residential quarters, and let out temporarily until the owners make further plans for the buildings.
The arrangement helps keep squatters out, offers young people more affordable rent and allows the owners to <a href="https://liveinguardians.com/owners" target="_blank">avoid paying</a> the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-business-rate-relief/exempted-buildings-and-empty-buildings-relief" target="_blank">higher rates</a> imposed on empty buildings. It might sound like a win-win situation for tenants and building owners, but in a sellers’ market, where tenants are easy to find, landlords can be less concerned with keeping accommodation in good repair.
<a href="https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8185" target="_blank">In response</a> to reports of hazardous conditions the UK government passed <a href="https://theconversation.com/renters-in-england-can-now-sue-landlords-over-mouldy-cold-or-noisy-properties-an-expert-explains-93299" target="_blank">a new law</a> which gives tenants in England and Wales the right to demand a basic standard of accommodation. This builds on tenants’ existing rights, which include <a href="https://www.gov.uk/tenancy-deposit-protection" target="_blank">deposit protection</a> and <a href="http://england.shelter.org.uk/legal/security_of_tenure/notices/notices_assured_shorthold_tenancies/section_21_notices" target="_blank">longer notice periods</a>.
Yet the law for property guardians remains unclear: if they wanted to take their landlord to court to enforce basic repairs under the new law, a judge could rule that they are not tenants at all – merely licensees, which would leave them without legal protection.
This has happened already: while in one 2017 case a property guardian was <a href="https://nearlylegal.co.uk/2017/02/aint-way-property-guardians-licences/" target="_blank">held to be a tenant</a>, in another 2018 case <a href="https://nearlylegal.co.uk/2018/10/property-guardians-licence-not-tenancy-in-office-building/" target="_blank">the guardian was held</a> to be a licensee. In each case, the lower court judges took different positions on how to interpret the law.
If property guardians find themselves needing to appeal a judge’s ruling, in order to secure repairs for their home, they would <a href="https://whaymand.wordpress.com/2019/03/20/article-old-issues-new-incentives-new-approach-property-guardians-and-the-lease-licence-distinction/" target="_blank">have to take the matter</a> to a higher court. This raises two difficult issues: for one thing, should it be the guardians’ job to take an active role in settling the law in the appeal courts, rather than leaving it to parliament – and for another, how should such challenges be funded?
Review overdue
The law is conventionally divided into lawyers’ law (such as contract law) and public interest law (such as family law and criminal law). Unelected appeal judges can legitimately change lawyers’ law, because its subject matter is less politically sensitive. But public interest law is for elected politicians to change.
When guardians try to enforce repairs against landlords, the case will be governed by both models: the judges decide who is a tenant, while parliament decides on what protections tenants are offered. Conventionally, this is considered legitimate, because if parliament does not like a court’s decision, it can change the law afterwards.
Yet the law determining whether a resident is a tenant was settled the 1970s and 1980s, when <a href="https://www.fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Bach-Commission-Appendix-6-F-1.pdf" target="_blank">legal aid was widely available</a>. Back then, tenants also benefited from <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1977/42/part/III" target="_blank">rent control</a> and <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1977/42/part/I" target="_blank">secure tenancies</a>. Now the context has changed, it’s not surprising that the law needs to be reviewed.
The problem is that taking a case to the <a href="https://www.judiciary.uk/you-and-the-judiciary/going-to-court/court-of-appeal-home/" target="_blank">Court of Appeal</a> or the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.uk/" target="_blank">Supreme Court</a> is expensive, and disproportionately so if one case is considered on its own. Depending on its complexity, by the time a case reaches even the county court costs can reach <a href="https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/Misc/2016/B67#para56" target="_blank">many thousands or tens of thousands of pounds</a>. Appeals will cost more still.
Protecting public interest
When guardians take landlords to court over tenants’ rights, they’re not just deciding an individual case – they’re also setting a precedent for future cases, which helps to settle what the law actually means. Because of this, such cases are in the wider public interest. The legal aid system has a facility to provide extra funding for such cases – even to appeal.
If members of the public are to be co-opted in settling the law for the public benefit, they should be funded from the public purse. If funding is denied, it doesn’t just affect those bringing the case – it has an impact on the legal system itself, which becomes paralysed and unable to deal with more modern circumstances. And if the law is uncertain, the wider public are at a disadvantage too, because they will not know their rights.
There are nonetheless barriers to this process. Property guardian companies may prefer to settle, rather than risk getting a firm ruling that their residents are tenants, which may undermine their business model. Tenants might also prefer to avoid the stress of litigation and simply decide to find somewhere else to live. But the biggest barrier is the lack of state funding.
In an age of austerity, which has seen <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/legal-aid-cuts" target="_blank">massive cuts to legal aid</a>, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/legal-aid-agency" target="_blank">Legal Aid Agency</a> may be unwilling to fund such cases to appeal. But failing to fund public interest litigation because of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&amp;q=legal+aid+cuts&amp;sort=relevancy&amp;language=en&amp;date=all&amp;date_from=&amp;date_to=" target="_blank">budgetry concerns</a> is shortsighted and will cost the public in the long run.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114943/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Derek Whayman, Lecturer in Law, Newcastle University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/property-guardians-live-in-legal-limbo-despite-new-law-to-protect-tenants-from-exploitation-114943" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Main photo: A guardianship property in London. <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sarflondondunc/25962547431/sizes/l" target="_blank">sarflondondunc/Flickr.</a>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC-ND</a> <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/newcastle-university-906"></a>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

UK property guardians live in legal limbo – despite new law to protect tenants from exploitation

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GUEST OBSERVATION
ABC’s Four Corners coverage showing mistreatment of residents in Australia’s aged care facilities has led to much discussion about ideas to improve care. One proposal is to introduce ratings, which would provide a score reflecting the quality of residential aged care services.
Ratings have come up before in reports about aged care in Australia – in the 2004 “Hogan Review”, the Productivity Commission’s 2011 Caring for Older Australians inquiry and, most recently, in the 2017 Carnell-Paterson Review, which led to the government establishing a new Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission. These reports all refer to the ratings system used in England.
In Australia, aged care homes are expected to meet 44 accreditation standards, receiving either a pass or fail for each one. These standards will be replaced in 2019 with new aged care quality standards, but homes will still only be expected to pass or fail each standard.
In the past, virtually all providers passed accreditation. This means it has been impossible to tell the difference between providers that excel and those that just scrape through.
England has had two attempts at using ratings since 2004. The current system was introduced in 2014 by the Care Quality Commission (CQC) – the body responsible for inspecting care in nursing homes. During CQC inspections, each home is given a rating against five questions: is it safe, is it effective, is it responsive, it is caring and is it well led?
The four ratings are: outstanding, good, requires improvement, or inadequate. At the end of the inspection, the home is given an overall rating. Homes are legally required to display their ratings, both at the home’s location and on its website.
Recent research shows these ratings are a good indicator of how residents feel about their quality of life in the home. Unsurprisingly, homes with lower rates of staff turnover and fewer staff vacancies also tend to perform better.
So, what are the lessons for Australia?
1. Ratings rarely affect consumer choice; they improve provider quality
Consumers don’t usually use ratings to find care. Choosing an aged care home is not like choosing a hotel or restaurant.
People looking for care are often in the middle of a crisis, such as the death of a partner or an unexpected stay in hospital. The older person is too unwell to make the decision themselves. All too often, families simply choose the closest home or settle for any home that has a place.
Ratings work mostly because they change the behaviour of care providers. When a previous system of ratings in England was abandoned in 2008, providers that had been sceptical of the ratings beforehand argued for their re-introduction.
People I interviewed for my research said this was because homes with the best ratings could negotiate better rates for care, and care home companies could use the ratings to set goals and targets for their staff.
2. Quality is subjective, but only for the little things
Discussions about quality in aged care often come back to the issue that everyone has personal preferences and it is difficult to agree on one definition of quality. The sort of example that comes up is whether a resident would be more interested if a home had Foxtel or Sky or if wine was served with meals.
These are not the sorts of questions that need ratings. Older people, or more frequently their families, can answer these questions themselves by visiting homes, trying the food, seeing the quality of accommodation and asking questions about, for instance, en-suite bathrooms and menu options.
What people need help with is understanding what they cannot easily judge for themselves. Such as:
<ul>
<li>does the home have enough staff and the right mix of skills?</li>
<li>does the home support its staff to form meaningful and supportive relationships, not only with the residents but also with families and with each other?</li>
<li>does the home use good practice in supporting people living with dementia, or in caring for people at the end of their lives?</li>
</ul>
This is where the right sorts of ratings can help shed light on the parts of care that are difficult to assess. Most importantly, it gives providers a good steer on where to focus their efforts.
3. Be prepared to publicise poor care
An important feature of the system in England is that the CQC regularly draws attention to poor care. It does this not just through the ratings but also through other reports it produces about care in England, such as the annual State of Care report. The CQC also provides reports on specific issues – for instance, the difficulties older people with dementia face when they move between care homes and hospitals.
In the first three years of the current ratings scheme, while most homes were rated “good”, 21% of providers received “inadequate” or “requires improvement” ratings, something highlighted in the State of Care report. While about a fifth of the homes rated “inadequate” stayed the same at re-inspection, the CQC found 82% had improved their overall rating. Of the homes rated “requires improvement”, 58% improved at the next inspection.
Such transparency is currently impossible in Australia as the Aged Care Act 1997 restricts what can be made public about poor care in the first place.
4. Ratings are part of a package
While not perfect, the ratings system in England has helped to communicate what good care looks like and given providers something to aim for. This is demonstrated by the popularity of practice guidance on how to get an “outstanding” rating.
But Australian policymakers need to assess other differences with England’s system. The CQC has considerable enforcement and legislative powers when compared to the Aged Care Quality Agency in Australia. The CQC can shut down providers and even bring criminal charges. Australia’s Quality Agency has to refer providers to the Health Department for action.
The UK also has a raft of rights-based legislation to protect vulnerable residents, such as the Mental Capacity Act 2005 and the Deprivation of Liberty Safeguards. In Australia, reports into human rights and elder abuse have highlighted the gaps in the legislation to protect the rights of older people.
There are also more organisations involved in care in England and the CQC’s activity is supplemented with safeguarding and quality monitoring by local councils, which organise care.
Ratings may be useful for improving quality in Australia, but should be seen as only one part of a very large and complex puzzle.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103688/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Lisa Trigg, Research Associate, London School of Economics and Political Science
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-lessons-for-australia-from-englands-system-of-rating-its-aged-care-homes-103688" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Four lessons for Australia from England’s system of rating its aged care homes

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A 48-year-old engineer from Mount Martha, Antony Fensome, has been sentenced to a community correction order after pleading guilty to disposing of property after bankruptcy, altering records, and leaving Australia without written permission from his trustee.
Magistrate Lethbridge recently sentenced Mr Fensome at Dromana Magistrates’ Court to a 15 month Community Correction Order (CCO) and 150 hours of community service.
Antony Sean Fensome had filed for voluntary bankruptcy on 11 September 2012 with debts in excess of $83,000.
At the time, Mr Fensome jointly owned a property in the United Kingdom which he sold during his bankruptcy period for £225,000.
Following the sale, Mr Fensome provided false information to his trustee about the amount he received, including a false bank account statement and settlement statement, showing he received only £195,000 from the sale. He has since commenced making repayments to the trustee in respect of the $37,708.48 debt owing from the unauthorised sale of the UK property.
During a voluntary interview with the Australian Financial Security Authority Investigators, Mr Fensome made admissions that he had provided false information about the amount of surplus proceeds from the sale and that he had produced the false documents to reduce the amount he would have to pay to his trustee.
Mr Fensome also travelled overseas on six occasions during his bankruptcy, without written permission from his trustee.
In sentencing, His Honour noted that the offences were extremely serious and, if not for the accused’s early guilty plea, personal circumstances and repayment schedule, he would have faced a period of imprisonment.
The matter was prosecuted by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions on behalf of the Australian Financial Security Authority.
 
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Bankrupt caught selling UK property without telling Australian trustee

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/78452/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Contrary to what Labor and the banks have predicted, revenue from the bank levy will likely be higher, even with deductions.
In this year’s budget papers, Treasury estimated that the bank levy will collect about A$1.5 billion in each of the next four years for the government. But this is actually a conservative estimate.
Labor has argued there will be a A$2 billion dollar hole in the bank tax revenue. This is based on the disclosure to the ASX of four of the five affected banks, on what they will likely pay government.
But the banks’ numbers assume there won’t be change to any decisions in response to the bank levy. Research shows this is highly unlikely, as bank customers have worn the cost for bank taxes like this, imposed after the global financial crisis in the UK.
In fact, if the economy keeps growing as many have predicted, and banks grow too, then the amount of revenue the government collects from the levy may even be bigger than Treasury estimates.
<h2>What we know about the bank levy</h2>
When it comes to what revenue the government can get from the bank levy, both the taxable sum, and the tax rate applied, determine what gets collected.
The budget papers specify the taxable sum as including “items such as corporate bonds, commercial paper, certificates of deposit, and Tier 2 capital instruments” but not “Tier 1 capital and deposits of individuals, businesses and other entities protected by the Financial Claims Scheme”. The bank levy will be an annualised rate of 0.06%, applicable for all licensed entity liabilities of at least A$100 billion from July 1, 2017. Small banks and foreign banks are exempt.
Although it is possible the bank levy would not be a deductible expense in calculating corporate income, precedent and statements by government indicate the levy will be deductible. Special taxes on the mining industry (including royalties and the petroleum resource rent tax), state payroll, land taxes, stamp duties and indirect taxes such as petroleum excise are all deductions in the calculation of taxable corporate income.
<h2>Errors in the assumptions about banks</h2>
Labor and banks also assume that the bank levy is a deduction in assessing corporate income. The preliminary data made public by four of the five affected banks indicates the gross revenue gain of the bank levy, less the reduction in corporate tax, will be less than the budget numbers.
That is, the net revenue reflects a 0.042% levy rather than the 0.06% rate. This also assumes shareholders will bear all of the net additional taxation.
But it also assumes the banks will not change any decisions. This is both a simplistic and an unlikely scenario.
In essence, the bank levy is a selective indirect tax on one of the inputs used by the large banks to provide financial services to their customers.
A more likely scenario is that the banks will seek to, and succeed in, passing forward most of the new indirect tax to their customers as a combination of higher interest rates and fees. From past experience, banks pass forward higher Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rates, just as they pass forward lower rates.
Given that the affected five banks account for over 80% of the market, together with the reluctance of most Australian business and household customers to switch banks, there is a high probability that most of the levy will be passed forward as higher bank interest rates and fees.
Should the banks pass forward most of the levy to their customers, the increase in bank revenue will match the increase of bank costs caused by the levy. That is, taxable corporate income will remain about the same. Then, the overall government revenue gain is given by the gross 0.06% bank levy.
<h2>The bank levy could even collect more</h2>
If the output and incomes of the five banks to pay the levy expand over the next four years, then we would expect additional revenue to be collected by government to increase over time. The budget papers, the RBA, international agencies and private sector economists all forecast economic growth. It’s unlikely that the big five banks would not also experience economic growth.
So the budget paper forecast that the bank levy revenue collection of about A$1.5 billion a year for each of the next four years, has to be on the conservative side.
The revenue estimates for the levy are forecasts or projections compiled in a world of uncertainty. So a lot is still up for debate, including not only the design of the levy but the future path of the economy in general and for the large banks in particular.
Details and assumptions underlying government estimates of the revenue from the bank levy are unclear. It would be an unusual precedent not to allow the levy to be a deduction in calculating corporate income tax, and so reducing the net revenue gain. But the implicit assumption of the bank released numbers of no decision changes by the banks is unrealistic.
If banks, as businesses in general, pass forward to customers much of an input tax, a large part of the first-round fall in corporate income, is offset by higher revenue. Government forward estimates of additional government tax revenue collected by the levy likely are on the conservative side.
John Freebairn is a Professor in Department of Economics, University of Melbourne and the author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/john-freebairn-90" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The government will likely get more from the bank levy than Labor or the big four think: John Freebairn

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The UK commercial property investment markets were already past their peak in both pricing and volume terms a year ago, and the result on the referendum on EU membership has arguably done little to change the trend, according to Savills’ latest report.
Confidence was definitely rocked in the third quarter of 2016, but by the end of last year there was acceptance that Brexit is a long process, rather than a one-hit event.
What has changed since the referendum is the make-up of investors that are active in the UK, with less activity by institutions and a sharp rise in demand from overseas private investors.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%207.03.04%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%207.03.04%20pm.jpg" alt="">
Many investors have been attracted by the weakening of the pound, and at present this is seen as enough to compensate for a perceived increase in occupational risk.
Overall, our predictions for 2017 and beyond are investment volumes are expected to trend downwards towards £50 billion per annum, with a swing away from opportunistic deals to income-security plays.
Yields are expected to rise in most sectors, though the stable debt market, low vacancy rates, and global investor demand is expected to put a lower ceiling on prime yields than was reached during the GFC.
Brexit definitely carries a risk of creating a sustained period of occupier uncertainty, but to some degree this should be balanced by lower levels of development activity.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%207.03.12%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%207.03.12%20pm.jpg" alt="">
However, until some clarity emerges as to how Britain will exit from the EU, the real impact on the UK market will be hard to quantify.
“We expect investment volume in Continental Europe in 2017 to be similar to that of 2016,” the report stated.
Although interest rates are expected to rise to 1.16% in the Eurozone, the property market should remain high on investors’ radar.
“In France, Germany and the Netherlands, where elections will be held, we expect a wait and see attitude by some investors during the first half of the year,” the report stated.
However, the prevailing story regarding core countries is the lack of prime product.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%207.03.21%20pm.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/21/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-21%20at%207.03.21%20pm.jpg" alt="">
At the other end of the spectrum, prime yields in non-core countries are still above the European average, offering more attractive returns and yield compression potential.
This is especially so in countries like Spain and Italy where strong property fundamentals combined with the availability of portfolio opportunities are attracting foreign investors.
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Little change in the United Kingdom commercial property market despite Brexit: Savills

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GUEST OBSERVER
The UK has long been in the grip of a housing crisis. Back in 2004, respected economist Kate Barker carried out a major review of housing, concluding that if the low rates of construction continued, it would increase levels of homelessness and continue to make housing less affordable. 
Ten years later, it’s clear that these urgent warnings fell on deaf ears. In 2004/05, when Barker’s report was published, 205,000 houses were built in the UK. In 2014/15, only 153,000 homes were constructed. As each year passes, the backlog of demand for housing grows larger, leading to rising house prices and greater numbers of households in rented accommodation. 
Currently, almost 80 percent of all new dwellings are built by private house builders. In 2014/15, just ten companies were responsible for nearly half of the new homes developed. But it has not always been this way. In the 1960s and 70s, there were several years when local authorities and housing associations developed more houses than all private companies put together. 
Prioritising profit
The issue of who builds housing matters, because government has so little control over the decisions and actions of private house builders. And since the 2008 recession, what has become clear is that the biggest house builders have been growing their profits much faster than they have been building new houses. 
Our recent research shows that from 2012 to 2015, the number of new houses built by the five largest private house builders grew by 31 percent. Meanwhile, their revenues increased by 76 percent, and their end-of-year profits (after taxation and various other deductions) increased by over 200 percent. It seems that maintaining the scarcity of new housing keeps sale prices high, which removes the incentive to significantly increase the number of dwellings being built.
Of course, profit-making can be helpful, if firms then reinvest in more house building. But in 2015, the five biggest house builders returned 43 percent of their annual profits to shareholders in dividends. Our research suggests that if this had been reinvested in building more homes, nearly 9,000 extra houses could have been built – equivalent to a 6 percent increase in annual output.
It could also be argued that shareholder investment makes such house building possible, and that dividends are a fair price to pay. Yet this still leaves us with an uncomfortable conclusion; that an increase in housing supply depends on whether just a few companies decide to reinvest or pay out to shareholders.
Changing direction?
For many years after the 2008 financial crash, senior politicians did little to highlight or address this issue. But recent announcements by the government suggest a shift in political direction. Sajid Javid, the government minister responsible for housing, recently declared that “the big developers must release their stranglehold on supply”. 
This echoes the more general statements made by the new prime minster: Theresa May has suggested that her government will intervene in dysfunctional markets – and the market for new houses could well be the first in line. 
The forthcoming Autumn Statement promises increased government investment in housing. A series of new measures were recently announced, including the £3 billion Home Building Fund. This will be targeted at small and medium-sized developers, and may work to lessen the dominance of the large firms. 
What does not seem to be on the government’s agenda, however, is the introduction of measures that would increase building by local authorities, housing associations and other non-profit bodies – in spite of proposals by sector representatives which outline how this could be achieved. 
The government could do much more to increase public sector house building. Possible measures include allowing not-for-profit and public bodies to use more of their reserves for housing, and lifting borrowing restrictions. A wide range of economists have advised the government to borrow for investment in physical infrastructure. 
Housing is not currently categorised as infrastructure, but treating it as such could generate economic gains, while addressing the growing shortfall in housing. What is for sure is that the house building industry on its own will not supply the homes which the UK so desperately needs.
Tom Archer is PhD Candidate, Sheffield Hallam University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-archer-315893" target="_blank">here</a>.
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