When long-time Ivanhoe locals Graeme and Catherine, decided it was time to downsize, they weren’t necessarily in a rush.&nbsp;

Like many in their stage of life, they had started thinking about apartment living, but anticipated making the shift in two to three years.

That timeline changed when they visited <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/candela-ivanhoe-40-upper-heidelberg-road-ivanhoe">Candela</a>, a new boutique development by <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/developers/salter-brothers">Salter Brothers</a>. The project ticked all the boxes they were looking for: location, quality design, and long-term lifestyle benefits, which prompted them to bring their decision forward.

“It was the right place at the right time,” they said. “We knew immediately it ticked all the boxes, and we didn’t want to wait.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=358855]

Their decision to downsize was driven by a combination of practical needs and lifestyle considerations. Their existing home, while much loved, had become increasingly difficult to maintain. It spanned multiple levels, included extensive front and back gardens, and was starting to show the wear that comes with age.&nbsp;

They were looking for a more manageable lifestyle, one with less upkeep and more freedom. A brand-new apartment with no maintenance requirements and the ability to simply “lock up and leave” gave them peace of mind and a greater sense of control over their future.

Financially, the purchase made sense as well. The available stamp duty savings, strong price-to-value offering, and timing of the settlement suited their plans, making the transition smoother and more cost-effective. The apartment's design and inclusions further supported their choice.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357493]

The layout was both functional and flexible: three bedrooms, a butler’s pantry, a separate laundry, and a large open-plan living area. It gave them the freedom to host a family, accommodate guests, or set up a home office. The expansive balcony and elevated views added to the appeal, providing a sense of openness and connection to the outdoors.

“It just had a really good flow,” Catherine noted, something they found lacking in many other apartments they’d considered, particularly in the established market.

Candela’s boutique scale was another deciding factor. With a smaller number of residences and a top-floor penthouse position, the couple felt the development offered the privacy and space they were looking for, without feeling isolated.

“We liked that it wasn’t a huge development. It felt well-balanced, modern but still with a sense of community, not overwhelming,” they said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=342 project_image_fid=357508]

Equally important was the ability to remain in Ivanhoe, a suburb they know well and have deep roots in. After 46 years in the area, proximity to local parks, shops, and familiar faces mattered just as much as the apartment itself.

“We didn’t want to give up the community we’ve known for decades. Candela allowed us to upgrade our lifestyle while staying in the place we call home.”

With a Walk Score of 90, the village location supports a convenient, connected lifestyle. <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/ivanhoe-vic-3079">Ivanhoe</a> Station is just a eight-minute walk away, and the neighbourhood offers access to parks, cafes, restaurants, and schools along Upper Heidelberg Road, all within easy reach.

Beyond the apartment, the couple also saw value in the broader vision for Candela, one that integrates residential living with public spaces and local amenities.&nbsp;

The development introduces 58 new apartments as well as a mix of commercial and social spaces that integrate contemporary architecture with the suburb’s existing character.&nbsp;

At ground level, residents will find a charming café and a lifestyle wellness centre, perfect for unwinding and rejuvenating. Meanwhile, the rooftop garden offers a stunning vantage point for residents to enjoy breathtaking sunsets, host gatherings, or enjoy barbecues with family and friends. It's not just a place to live; it's a vibrant community where every moment is an opportunity to connect and create lasting memories.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=342]

Staff Writer

Why Ivanhoe locals are choosing to downsize to Candela

Mark and Roy Makari are expanding their presence in Sydney’s South West with a second major proposal for Leppington, this time envisioning a 900-dwelling mixed-use development just 850 metres from their previously lodged tower trio on Fifth Avenue.

Project management and construction management firm Creative Vision filed the plans for the&nbsp;multi-building project at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/230-rickard-road-leppington-nsw-2179">230 Rickard Road, Leppington</a>. The proposal seeks to establish a new focal point for the precinct through a high-density, transit-oriented development supported by diverse land uses.

According to the Scoping Report prepared for the Department of Planning, the scheme includes around 900 apartments across multiple towers, including 135 dwellings designated for affordable housing. A mix of market and subsidised apartments will be supported by ground-level activation through retail and office space, a childcare centre, and a hotel, forming a comprehensive urban precinct.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="34797362-f3dc-4d84-8235-2657fc5f3bde" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Plan.png?VersionId=Uzckrz9tUpDQl5lX1_WMhjnv16bsr8wG" />

The Design Report by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc-0">Studio SC</a> notes that the project “intends to deliver a high-quality, high-density built form that supports the vision for the Leppington Town Centre, integrating mixed-use outcomes and public domain upgrades.” The development is expected to be delivered in stages, although a precise timeline is yet to be confirmed.

The project will be assessed through a future State Significant Development Application, with the Scoping Report indicating the team will seek design excellence via a competitive process or through an expert design review panel. Early massing diagrams suggest a series of mid- to high-rise buildings framing a central landscaped spine, with emphasis on pedestrian permeability and public space.

The planning documentation flags a strong sustainability agenda, stating that the development will “respond to the urban heat island effect, incorporate water sensitive urban design, and prioritise active transport”.

<img alt="Mixed Use Development 230 Rickard Rd Leppington" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="369d7b54-1279-4cde-88ec-dcb215594414" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Podium_1.png?VersionId=QArL7B2kkLt63vl5xvL0FNV_ardAlez4" />

The proposal follows in the footsteps of the Makaris’ nearby Fifth Avenue site, where they’ve submitted plans for three towers comprising nearly 500 apartments, with 10 per cent dedicated to affordable housing. That project features commercial podiums, a childcare centre, and a new public park that would occupy more than a third of the site.

Both developments are situated within walking distance of Leppington Train Station and fall under strategic precinct plans promoting higher density housing. The town centre is undergoing substantial transformation, driven by state government planning reforms aimed at fast-tracking housing delivery.

Together, the two projects represent a combined ambition of nearly 1,400 new homes across just under two kilometres of central Leppington.

First look: 900-home mixed-use precinct planned for Leppington

Leading Australian integrated property development group, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>, has released the signature penthouses crowning its landmark AURA by Aqualand precinct at 168 Walker Street in North Sydney, unveiling Il Magnate and La Divina as the largest and most luxurious penthouses in the suburb.

With prices anticipated to commence from $15 million, and each accompanied by a new Porsche Carrera 911 valued at over $500K, the residences mark the culmination of <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA by Aqualand</a>’s decade-long journey and the beginning of its final sales chapter. 
&nbsp; 
Their release follows more than $850 million in record-breaking residential sales and the building’s completion and occupation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358868]

The Richards Stanisich-designed 284 sqm Il Magnate and 224 sqm La Divina penthouses, collectively known as The Icons of AURA, are conceived as grand luxury homes rather than apartments, with expansive proportions, elevated materiality and curated identities that reflect their status as one-off residences.&nbsp;

Il Magnate features a grande master suite, complete with substantial walk-in dressing area and ensuite, three other bedrooms, second ensuite and another bathroom, powder room, open plan kitchen, scullery, substantial dining area and generous living room divided by a feature fireplace, and a multifunction wintergarden, which is ideal for a study and adjoining office breakout space. &nbsp;

Meanwhile, the La Divina residence offers the same amenities, sans the powder room, on a slightly smaller alternate floor plan configuration.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358863]

Each occupies half of AURA by Aqualand’s topmost 28th level, comes with four secure car spaces and pairs sweeping Sydney Harbour panoramas with large-scale living spaces, refined detailing and a level of craftsmanship and amenity rarely offered in the North Shore market.&nbsp;

Penthouse residents will also receive Etymon’s ‘Black Key’ private concierge and lifestyle management service, an invitation only offering providing the ultimate in bespoke personalisation, including a range of everyday discrete services, from dinner party management, grocery deliveries, pet feeding or plants watered, dinners, snacks and coffee deliveries, event ticket sourcing, right up to organising travel visas and international airfares. Rarely seen in Australian properties, the service provides residents the benefits of living in a world-class luxury hotel-style home, akin to The Ritz, or the Waldorf Astoria.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=358862]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richards Stanisich</a>’s Director, Kirsten Stanisich, said the studio set out to craft residences that feel profoundly considered, contemporary and deeply connected to their setting.

“From the outset, we approached these penthouses with the sensibility of a grand Parisian residence - generous in scale, elegant in proportion and designed to feel more like a handcrafted home than an apartment," Stanisich said.

“Their elevated position and sweeping harbour outlook informed every decision, creating a rare connection between urban sophistication and natural calm. We shaped each space with expressive materiality, sculptural forms and bespoke detailing that invite touch and interaction.&nbsp;

“The result is a pair of residences defined by volume, light and an inherent softness - refined, flexible and deeply personal. These penthouses are unlike anything else in North Sydney, offering a sanctuary of true luxury framed by some of the city’s most remarkable views.”

For Aqualand’s Head of Sales &amp; Marketing, Alex Adams, the collaboration with Porsche underscores the shared ethos behind the residences.

“Aqualand’s collaboration with Porsche underpins both brand’s sharing an obsession with craftsmanship, design excellence, and enduring value," Adams said.

“Our penthouses are created for those who appreciate the finer details and expect the extraordinary at every touchpoint. Including a Porsche simply extends that experience beyond the residence - it’s a continuation of the lifestyle our buyers already live.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292862]

Aqualand’s Managing Director, Jin Lin, said the penthouses represent both the pinnacle of AURA by Aqualand and an important design benchmark for the company’s future pipeline.&nbsp;

“These stunning penthouses reflect the purest expression of Aqualand’s design ambition," Lin said.

“The unparalleled design intent makes them not only the glistening crown of AURA by Aqualand, but the crown of North Sydney itself. They’re essentially a thank you gift to a burgeoning community that deserves this level of quality and architectural consideration.&nbsp;

“We’re leveraging the unrivalled standard set here as the foundation for what comes next, including our upcoming Anderson Street, Chatswood; 15 Blue Street, North Sydney and Central Barangaroo projects. Purchasers of these penthouses will essentially be living inside the blueprint of Aqualand’s future.

“These landmark residences demonstrate how far North Sydney has evolved and the strength of demand for highly curated, bespoke luxury homes. They’re more than penthouses, they’re legacy residences.&nbsp;

“With AURA by Aqualand now a thriving new precinct with residents well and truly settled, and our in-house world-class lifestyle amenity activated, Il Magnate and La Divina represent a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to secure an extraordinary piece of North Sydney’s future.”

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=30959]

Joel Robinson

Aqualand launches North Sydney penthouses with free Porsche Carrera 911

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/bokarina-qld-4575">Bokarina</a> Beach has quietly evolved into one of the Sunshine Coast’s most complete coastal lifestyle precincts, defined not just by proximity to the ocean, but by how residential living, local retail and everyday amenity are stitched together.&nbsp;

Gardner Vaughan Group’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/bask-bokarina-38-bokarina-boulevard-bokarina-qld-4575">Bask Bokarina</a> now represents the final residential chapter in that transformation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333360]

Over recent years, the Bokarina Beach precinct has taken shape as a walkable, community-oriented neighbourhood, anchored by beachfront access, Lake Kawana to the west, and a growing mix of cafés, specialty retail and public open space.&nbsp;

With Zinc Bokarina already delivered next door by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/gardner-vaughan-group">Gardner Vaughan Group</a> (GVG), Bask is the last opportunity to buy a brand new apartment within the precinct, effectively rounding out a fully formed coastal village.

GVG has positioned Bask to strengthen that lifestyle framework. Ten ground-floor retail spaces are planned beneath the residences, extending Bokarina Boulevard’s existing activity and reinforcing the area’s everyday convenience, from casual dining and coffee to local services, within a short walk of the beach.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]

The residential component comprises 135 apartments across two buildings, Mydas and Caretta, with a clear shift toward larger three- and four-bedroom layouts and penthouses. That mix reflects a maturing buyer profile in Bokarina, where demand is increasingly led by owner-occupiers and active downsizers seeking space, permanence, and connection to place rather than short-term coastal accommodation.

Design and amenity have followed the same logic. Residents will have access to a heated plunge pool, gym, private dining room with a full kitchen, landscaped communal gardens with barbecues and a firepit, and a shared herb and vegetable garden, facilities intended to support daily use rather than resort-style turnover. Pet-friendly features, including a dog wash bay, acknowledge both buyer expectations and the area’s dog-friendly beach, located around 250 metres from the site.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333366]

“Bokarina has become one of the Sunshine Coast’s most desirable beachside communities, and Bask represents the very last chance to buy new in this location,” GVG Director Sam Gardner said.&nbsp;

“Our focus has been to create spacious, functional apartments that meet the needs of locals who want to downsize without compromise, as well as those seeking a full-time coastal retreat.”

Positioned between the Pacific Ocean and Lake Kawana, Bask apartments have been oriented to capture outlooks toward the water or the Glass House Mountains, reinforcing the project’s connection to its natural surroundings. With parks, beachfront paths, hospitals, retail and public transport already in place, Bask arrives at a point where the broader precinct is no longer emerging, but established.

Construction is expected to complete in Q3 this year, with apartments ready to move into this Spring.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]

Bask to complete Bokarina’s Sunshine Coast lifestyle precinct as final apartments are released

Property development giant <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/avid-property-group">AVID Property Group</a> is approaching completion, and sell-out, of its Surry Hills apartment development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-rathbone-23-47-flinders-street-surry-hills-nsw-2010">The Rathbone</a>.

The Flinders St project has sold well over half of its 32 apartments, which will sit above two retail spaces.

Now hitting the market are the final 14 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments, which start from $1.15 million. AVID is targeting a mid-2026 completion.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5947 project_image_fid=51208]

AVID General Manager New South Wales Danny Boubli said as more apartments are introduced to increase housing options in inner-city areas, homebuyers are searching for a &nbsp;sense of belonging in addition to location, convenience and value.&nbsp;

“There are very few opportunities for new developments in Surry Hills, and since acquiring the site, we’ve even seen one early purchaser merge two apartments plans together, reflecting the demand for a spacious, premium offering in a prime location,” Boubli said.&nbsp;

“Demand has been strong since we launched to market – we don’t see these final apartments staying on the market for long.”&nbsp;

Architectural firm Studio SC has designed the building which pays homage to the former 1900s Rathbone Terraces that once sat on the 990 sqm island site.

Boubil said the team has made every effort to create "truly liveable apartments", through&nbsp;functional floor plans, security, storage, and the inclusion of quality fittings.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5947 project_image_fid=51207]

&nbsp;

Sustainable design has also been implemented throughout the development, with natural light flooding each apartment, ventilation throughout, extensive landscaping and where possible, materials with a high level of recycled content and low volatile organic compound paints have been used. &nbsp;

Apartments range in size from 57 sqm for the one-bedrooms to the large-scale 165 sqm three-beds which are priced at $2,575,000.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=5947]

AVID launches final apartments at The Rathbone, Surry Hills

Tax Cut

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EXPERT OBSERVER

Australians saved rather than spent most of the budget tax cuts, almost doubling the proportion of household income saved, leaving spending languishing.

The September quarter <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0" target="_blank">national accounts</a> show that in the first three months of the financial year real household spending grew by just <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5206.0Main%20Features3Sep%202019">0.1%</a>, the least since the global financial crisis.

Over the year to September, inflation-adjusted spending grew by a mere 1.2%, also the least since the financial crisis. Australia’s population grew by 1.6% in that time, meaning the volume of goods and services bought per person went backwards.

<hr>
<h2>Quarterly growth in household spending</h2>

<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305094/original/file-20191204-70149-1ixi708.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305094/original/file-20191204-70149-1ixi708.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip"></a>

Household final consumption expenditure, quarterly real growth. <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5206.0Main%20Features3Sep%202019" target="_blank">Australian National Accounts</a>

Separate figures released by the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries on Wednesday show November new car sales were <a href="/news">down 9.8%</a> on November 2018.

By the end of November the Tax Office had issued more than 8.8. million tax refunds totalling A$25 billion, 30% more than a year before.

Instead of being largely spent, they were mostly saved, pushing up the household saving ratio from 2.7% to 4.8%, its highest point in more than two years.

<hr>
<h2>Household saving ratio</h2>

<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305092/original/file-20191204-70144-nfcimx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305092/original/file-20191204-70144-nfcimx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip"></a> Ratio of household net saving to household disposable income. <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5206.0Main%20Features1Sep%202019">Australian National Accounts</a>

<hr>
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg put the best face on the result, saying whether they had been spent or saved, the cuts had put households in a stronger position.

The government’s goal has always been to put more money into the pockets of the Australian people, and it’s their choice as to whether they spend or save that money

Separately calculated <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/8501.0Main+Features1Sep%202019" target="_blank">retail figures</a> show that in the three months to September the volume of goods and services bought fell 0.1%.

The disposable income households had available to spend grew an outsized 2.5%, driven by what the Bureau of Statistics said were the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5206.0Main%20Features2Sep%202019" target="_blank">budget tax cuts</a>.

<h2>Growth at GFC lows</h2>

The Australian economy grew just 0.4% in the three months to September, down from 0.6% in the June quarter, and 0.5% in the March quarter.

Over the year to September it grew <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5206.0Main%20Features1Sep%202019" target="_blank">1.7%</a>, well short of the <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs2.pdf" target="_blank">budget forecasts</a>, which in year average terms were 2.25% for 2018-19 and 2.75% for 2019-20.

<hr>
<h2>Real GDP growth</h2>

<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305100/original/file-20191204-70126-15uhedo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305100/original/file-20191204-70126-15uhedo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip"></a> <a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5206.0Main%20Features1Sep%202019" target="_blank">ABS, Commonwealth Treasury</a>

<hr>
After taking account of population growth, GDP per person grew not at all in the September quarter. Over the year to September living standards grew a bare 0.2%.

Gross domestic product per hour worked, which is a measure of productivity, fell 0.2% during the quarter and fell 0.2% over the year.

Company profits were up 2.2% in the quarter and 12.7% over the year. Wage and superannuation payments grew at about half those rates: 1.2% and 5.1%.

Housing investment was down 1.7% over the quarter and 9.6% over the year.

What household spending growth there was was concentrated on essentials, led by health and rent. So-called discretionary or non-essential expenditures fell, led down by spending on cars, dining out and tobacco.

<hr>
<h2>Consumption growth by category, quarterly</h2>

<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305120/original/file-20191204-70174-1ez6pr1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/305120/original/file-20191204-70174-1ez6pr1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip"></a> Treasury definitions of discretionary and non discretionary spending. ABS, Commonwealth Treasury

<hr>
The economy was kept afloat by a surge in government spending. It grew 0.9% in the quarter and 6% over the year. Growth in government spending and investment together accounted for 0.3 of the quarter’s 0.4 points of economic growth.

<h2>Government and mining to the rescue</h2>

Mining production grew 0.7% over the quarter and 7.4% over the year. A mining-fuelled surge in exports (which eclipsed imports for the first time since the 1970s) contributed almost as much to economic growth as government spending.

Drought-affected farm production fell 2.1% over the quarter and 6.1% over the year.

Business investment fell 4% in the quarter and 1.7% over the year, led down by a 7.8% fall in mining investment in the quarter and a 11.2% fall over the year, as liquefied natural gas projects came to completion. Non-mining investment fell 0.4%.

Asked whether the December budget update would contain tax measures designed to boost business investment, the treasurer said he was in discussions with business. The update is expected in the week before Christmas.

There’s little evidence in today’s figures of the “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2019/mr-19-33" target="_blank">gentle turning point</a>” spoken about hopefully by the Reserve Bank governor as recently as Tuesday.

If things don’t pick by the bank’s first board meeting for the year in February, it is a fair bet it will cut its cash rate again. By then it will know what the treasurer did (or didn’t) do in the budget update and whether we decided to spend over Christmas.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128297/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" width="1">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709" target="_blank">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292" target="_blank">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a>

This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/gdp-update-spending-dips-and-saving-soars-as-we-stash-rather-than-spend-our-tax-cuts-128297" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

GDP update: spending dips and saving soars as we stash rather than spend our tax cuts

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Introduction
The 2019-20 Budget had three aims: to cement the Government’s fiscal credentials by delivering the long-awaited return to budget surplus; to provide fiscal stimulus to an ailing economy; and to help get the Government re-elected. It looks on track for the first thanks to a revenue windfall, this has provided room for fiscal stimulus and of course time will tell whether it makes a difference in the May election. Of course, while whoever wins the election will provide stimulus next financial year its timing and precise makeup won’t really be known for some time which makes the Budget a bit academic.
Key budget measures
The goodies include:
<ul>
<li>
Income tax cuts from July focussed on low to middle income earners of an additional $10 a week (following last year’s announced tax cut of around $10/week) which is mainly achieved by doubling the Low &amp; Middle Income Tax Offset.
</li>
<li>
More generous tax stimulus in later years especially for higher income earners (which builds on the tax changes announced in last year’s budget), starting in 2022 with an expansion in the 19% rate tax bracket and a reduction in the 32.5% rate to 30% in 2024.
</li>
<li>
Expansion of the small business instant asset write off by $5,000 to $30,000 until 2020 (which is also now extended to medium-sized businesses) and a drop in small business company tax to 25% earlier than expected.
</li>
<li>
A $75 to $125 cash payment to 3.9 million pensioners and other welfare recipients.
</li>
<li>
Greater flexibility for 65 &amp; 66 year olds to top up their super.
</li>
<li>Spending on energy efficiency measures including an equity injection of $1.4bn on the Snowy Hydro project.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>An extra $25bn in infrastructure spending over the next decade including $2bn for a rail from Geelong to Melbourne, and a large allocation to NSW transport projects.</li>
</ul>
Stronger revenue, but tax cuts
Thanks to stronger corporate revenue, better personal tax revenue thanks to higher employment and reduced spending the 2018-19 budget deficit is projected to come in at $4.2bn compared to $5.2bn in the Mid-Year review. The Government has assumed that this revenue boost is only temporary (see the “parameter changes” line in the table below) and has only used some of it to fund tax cuts and other measures. The net result is that the budget is projected to continue to reach a surplus in the next financial year, albeit its still only small at $7.1bn or 0.4% of GDP. The move to higher surpluses is slowed slightly by the fiscal easing from policy changes (predominately tax cuts).
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However, note that the fiscal stimulus proposed for 2019-20 is actually bigger than that shown in the table below under “policy changes” as $3bn in tax cuts were already allowed for in the Mid-Year Review and if the already legislated tax cuts are allowed for in total its around $9bn or 0.5% of GDP. That said this is still relatively small and not enough to offset low wages growth and the negative wealth effect from falling house prices.
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The already legislated tax cuts for higher income earners next decade are designed to satisfy the Government’s commitment from the 2014 Budget to cap tax revenue at 23.9% of GDP (or total revenue with dividends at 25.4% of GDP) on the grounds that this is around the historic highs. This cap is now projected to be reached in 2021-22.
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Economic assumptions
The Government’s growth forecasts look a little bit on the optimistic side, particularly the assumptions for wages growth. It remains hard to see wages growth rising significantly over the next few years given unemployment is not expected to fall and on our forecasts is expected to rise to 5.5%.
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Assessment and risks
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Like last year’s this is an upbeat Budget. First the near-term tax cuts for low to middle income earners will help households at a time of soft wages growth, falling home prices and tightening lending standards. But while roughly two times bigger than planned a year ago, this will still be relatively small though at around $20 a week (enough for 3 rounds of coffee and a muffin!). Second, the Budget continues to recognise that we cannot rely on bracket creep to cut public debt. The Australian tax system is already highly progressive and is becoming more so with the top 10% of earners accounting for roughly 45% of income tax revenue, up from 36% two decades ago. Compared to other comparable countries the top marginal tax rate is both relatively high and kicks in at a relatively low multiple of average earnings. In fact only the top 20% of income earners pay more tax than they receive in government benefits. If this is not limited it risks dampening incentive and productivity. Third, the continuing focus on infrastructure is good for short term growth, productivity and “crowding in” private investment. It will help to keep the economy growing.
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Finally, thanks to constrained spending growth and the surge in revenue in recent years the outlook for surpluses is positive.
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However, we have still seen a record run of 11 years of budget deficits. While our net public debt to GDP ratio is low at 19% compared to 78% in the US, 70% in the Eurozone and 156% in Japan, comparing ourselves to a bad bunch is dangerous. The run of deficits swamps those of the 1980s and 1990s and this was without a deep recession! Rather we have achieved this thanks to a combination of ramping up spending at the time of the GFC and then not reining it in again. Unlike prior to the GFC we have nothing put aside for a rainy day and there is a risk that the revenue surprise will prove temporary if global growth slows or more likely Australian growth and employment disappoints.
While the Government’s revenue growth assumptions for the years ahead are modest partly due to tax cuts and they are relatively conservative in assuming that the iron ore price falls back to $US55 a tonne, a big risk remains that wages don’t accelerate as assumed leading to a resumption of poor personal tax collections.
Finally, the budget strategy and fiscal stimulus comes with greater than normal uncertainty given the coming election in May and whether the tax measures pass parliament. A Labor Government would likely also undertake a similar sized stimulus but there may be a greater focus on government spending and the timing may be delayed as a new government would likely have a mini-budget in the second half of the year.
Implications for the RBA
While this Budget should provide some boost to household finances and confidence – the fiscal boost to the economy and household income is still relatively modest and uncertainty around its timing and details may dampen any positive announcement effect. So while it will help the economy it’s not enough to change our view that the RBA will cut interest rates twice by year end taking the cash rate to 1%.
Implications for Australian assets
Cash and term deposits – with interest rates set to fall, returns from cash and bank term deposits will remain low.
Bonds – a major impact on the bond market from the Budget is unlikely. With Australian five-year bond yields at 1.4%, it’s hard to see great returns from bonds over the next few years albeit Australian bonds will likely outperform US/global bonds.
Shares – the boost to household spending power could be a small positive for the Australian share market (via consumer stocks) and there is an ongoing boost for construction companies. But it’s hard to see much impact on shares.
Property – the Budget is unlikely to have much impact on the property market. We expect Sydney and Melbourne home prices to fall further.
Infrastructure – continuing strong infrastructure spending should in time provide more opportunities for private investors as many of the resultant assets are ultimately privatised.
The $A – the Budget alone won’t have much impact on the $A. With the interest rate differential in favour of Australia continuing to narrow the downtrend in the $A has further to go.
Concluding comments
The 2019-20 Budget has a sensible focus on providing support to households at the same time as returning the budget to surplus. However, the actual fiscal stimulus is pretty modest - particularly for a pre-election budget - and comes with greater than normal uncertainty given the upcoming election.
Dr Shane Oliver Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist AMP Capital
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