There’s no sign of Palm Beach’s development boom slowing down.

Local developer Chippendale Group — which welcomed buyers to its Eva on Tenth project late last year — is now moving ahead with its next venture, Elise.

Similar in scale to Eva, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/elise-1425-1427-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Elise</a> will deliver 47 two-bedroom apartments, several with multipurpose rooms and dedicated study spaces. The project occupies a 1,230 sqm site at 1425–1427 Gold Coast Highway, with dual frontage to Twenty Fifth Avenue.&nbsp;It is on the prized eastern side of the Gold Coast Highway, 55m to the sand.

<img alt="Chippendale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f923e5ae-0554-4a27-8d30-2f00990e09e6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-14%20at%203.35.48%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=tkiYZ4CdZCklnS_KwDH_EZSnZl9K0QQT" />

Chippendale Group, led by&nbsp;fifth-generation family member and local businessman Daniel&nbsp;Chippendale, appointed BDA again to design Elise.

They noted in their submission to the Gold Coast City Council that the design "prioritises visual permeability and climatic performance to create a liveable residential outcome in a prominent beachfront location”.

The nine-level building will also home two swimming pools on the ground level, a gym with a sauna, and a resident lounge with dining space, kitchen, and barbecue area.&nbsp;

<img alt="Chippendale" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ef9ea403-e608-466e-a277-09d3c96220c6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-14%20at%203.35.54%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=hS2zvNS0C43vRqrrS4s6yeDiS9ov6UJq" />

Palm Beach is going through another wave of development. The quiet suburb became one of the most in demand suburbs in the country in 2020 and 2021 during the onset of COVID-19, with both developers and buyers scrambling to get into the market.

Those developments have since been delivered and settled - and now there's a new wave of projects coming through.

Sherpa has two projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/amargo-6-12-sixth-avenue-palm-beach-qld-4221">Amargo</a>, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/flourish-ovana-1150-1154-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach-qld-4221">Flourish Ovana</a>, across the road from each other on Sixth Avenue, while&nbsp;

On the eastern side of the Gold Coast Highway, DJ Fisher and wife Chloe launched <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/new-apartments/pescado-palm-beach-228-230-jefferson-lane-palm-beach-qld-4221">Pescado</a>, to much fanfare. Gordon Corp is also soon to release its newest development, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elle-on-jefferson-62-64-jefferson-lane-palm-beach-qld-4221">Elle on Jefferson</a>. BPG Developments is also planning a <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/first-look-bpg-developments-returns-to-palm-beach-new-apartment-market">new project on Jefferson Lane</a>.

Joel Robinson

First Look: Chippendale plots new Palm Beach apartment development after completing EVA Tenth Avenue

Frankston City Council has approved planning application for Pace Development Group's $91 million development at the cinematic location of 438-444 Nepean Highway Frankston.

The former home of Frankston Cinemas will be transformed into a 14 storey mixed-use building with views of the bay.

Pace’s approved plans include 144 apartments, one shop, two hospitality spaces, a wellness centre, gym, plus 202 car parking spaces across three basement levels accessed from Nepean Highway. Works are due to commence early 2026 for completion in early 2030. The site has been derelict for over a decade, following the closure of the Frankston Cinema in March 2014.

There are currently seven approved private sector mixed-use developments in Frankston’s city centre. Urban DC’s Harbour Frankston commenced construction in May 2025, after their first project, Horizon Frankston, broke records as Victoria’s fastest selling development back in 2023/24.

Pre-sales on both developments identify enormous local demand for a diversity of housing including the premium market, and more options for downsizers.

Frankston City Mayor Kris Bolam JP says the transformation to the urban beautification, local economy, vibrancy and overall reputation from these award-winning developers and architects is going to be "insurmountable."

"When you look at the current list of approved and recently completed projects, Frankston City has a $506 million price tag of private development! Not to mention the additional 770 residential dwellings that will contribute to our housing targets,"&nbsp;Bolam says.

"Every visitor daring to pass through Frankston will have a changed perception of our City, every investor will understand the sheer magnitude of opportunity, every business will realise the potential, and every resident will proudly know that Frankston City is experiencing the most exciting trajectory in decades. There is no doubt that the next evolution of Frankston City will exceed everyone’s wildest expectations.”

Pace Development Group’s original proposal was not supported by Council in April 2023 and ultimately rejected by the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal&nbsp;(VCAT) in July 2024. However once the Victorian Planning Minister had approved implementation of Council’s Frankston Metropolitan Activity Centre (FMAC) Structure Plan into the Frankston Planning Scheme in April 2025, Pace was able to work with Council to satisfactorily address any concerns and align plans accordingly.

Shane Wilkinson, Managing Director of Pace Development Group, said the permit approval was incredibly exciting both for the project at 438-444 Nepean Highway and for Frankston's broader transformation.

"Frankston is on the cusp of major change thanks to the forward-thinking vision of the Frankston City Council," Wilkinson says.

"With the Council's valued support, Pace is proud to be playing a leading role in helping to shape the transformation of Frankston by delivering new homes, jobs and retail opportunities for the Frankston community."

Mayor Bolam added that the Council’s newly adopted FMAC Structure Plan is giving greater confidence to investors that Frankston City is a proven investment hot spot with an optimal strategic planning framework for success.

"The final successful application from Pace is an impressive reflection of our community’s expectations and a great alignment with our Structure Plan. This is yet another development that will help guide Frankston City’s ongoing transformation.”

The FMAC Structure Plan, which provides critical clear direction on a number of criteria including land use, building design, housing and accommodation, is just one of several initiatives designed by Council to encourage, guide and support development applications. Council’s 2025-2026 Annual Budget includes a new differential rate to encourage the development of vacant and land-banked properties in Frankston’s city centre.

Vacant properties within the Frankston Metropolitan Activity Centre and along the Nepean Highway now attract a differential rate three times higher than the general rate, a measure designed to&nbsp;prevent land-banking and drive much needed investment into housing and commercial projects.

Council is also developing a streamlined application assessment timeframe for major developments that recognises the need for faster processing and review timeframes for larger projects, whilst still maintaining robust assessment standards.

Pace Development Group greenlit for 144 apartments in booming Frankston

As Melbourne eyes a net-zero future by 2035, developer Milieu is getting well ahead of the curve. Its new Malvern and Brunswick developments are fossil fuel–free, achieving an average 7-star and 7.5-star NatHERS rating through inclusions like solar photovoltaic systems, high levels of insulation, and passive design that encourages cross-flow ventilation.

Milieu’s largest project to date puts sustainability at the forefront and provides an opportunity to trial new initiatives—particularly in landscaping—thanks to the project’s scale and its unrepeatable, near-1.2-hectare block neighbouring the 140-year-old, heritage-listed Rippon Lea Estate.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136535 project_image_fid=288419]

Milieu’s nature-first masterplan, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a>, will transform the former ABC Studios on Gordon Street into a new neighbourhood of low-rise buildings interspersed with walking trails, extensive landscaping, and pocket gardens by landscape architect Oculus. Over 40 per cent of the site will be dedicated to green space, with mature tree retention and a resident-access-only gate connecting directly to the Rippon Lea Estate’s gardens.

Like their Malvern and Brunswick projects, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a> will be entirely fossil fuel–free, with no connection to the natural gas network. All appliances and services will be electric, enabling residents to operate on 100 per cent renewable energy. Solar photovoltaic systems are powering common building services and reducing both environmental impact and energy bills.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136535 project_image_fid=288420]

Water efficiency is another key feature. Rainwater harvesting tanks will irrigate the landscape, reducing reliance on freshwater and easing pressure on Melbourne’s stormwater system. High WELS-rated tapware and fixtures will further minimise water waste.

A multi-waste stream system will promote recycling and efficient waste separation for recyclables, general waste, and green waste. Car parking areas will include infrastructure for electric vehicle (EV) chargers, supporting the transition to sustainable transport.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/milieu-property">Milieu</a> has so far launched two of the residential buildings: Ripponlea Terrace and Gordon Place, with design by Woods Bagot and K.P.D.O. Ripponlea Terrace features a facade covered in cascading greenery that connects seamlessly with the surrounding landscape. Interiors are defined by natural stone, timber finishes, and soft colour accents. Gordon Place is one of the neighbourhood’s most sustainable buildings, incorporating high-performance insulation, double-glazed windows, and energy-efficient heating and cooling systems.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136535 project_image_fid=288414]

Beyond environmental performance, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a> is also designed to support wellbeing and community. A wellness hub—including yoga and Pilates studios, saunas, and mineral pools—sits alongside pet care amenities, shared lounges, and workshop areas. Technological features such as smart locks, secure parcel lockers, and number plate recognition for car park access round out Milieu’s vision for modern, connected living.

Milieu Founder and Managing Director Michael McCormack says <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/elsternwick-gardens-by-milieu-8-gordon-street-elsternwick-vic-3185">Elsternwick Gardens</a> is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

“The layers of thought and design within this project, alongside the historical and cultural importance of the site, renders this our most significant undertaking to date," McCormack says.

“This site represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to build something truly special. Our first step was to engage the local community, to get a sense of what they expected. Through that process, we arrived at a design that centres on a fully realised natural landscape – a series of private, interconnected gardens that encircle the homes and extend seamlessly from Rippon Lea Estate.”

Milieu recently appointed Brady Constructions to handle the build. The development will be delivered in stages, with the first residents expected to move in by early 2027.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136535]

Milieu champions sustainability at Elsternwick Gardens

Developments plans continue to pour in in the Sydney CBD.

While there's been skyscrapers sought and approved across the city in recent months, the latest plans are more boutique.&nbsp;

SLD Development has filed for a $30 million mixed-use building on a near-800 sqm site at 768-772 George Street, on the corner of Rawson Place, in Haymarket.

The adaptive reuse plans will see the heritage-listed GIO Building, built in the 1930s, redeveloped and incorporated into the new structure. It was designed in the "Inter-War Chicagoesque style", and has been subject to extensive internal alterations over time.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/dickson-rothschild">Dickson Rothschild</a>&nbsp;has designed the new building, which will rise as high at 14 storeys. There will be an 83-room hotel across the first seven levels, behind the retained heritage facade, and a rooftop bar for hotel guest.

Above the hotel will be an additional six-storey structure, with 30 one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments.

<img alt="heritage" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="6d46f11c-9746-4ffd-bc75-f1b9ad8a8348" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-08-14%20at%201.22.37%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=u2H9P0Pmg1kI.xZukLK15BkEoYPxQ3jz" />

The ground floor would be activated by two food and drink premises, supported by shared building services including a loading dock, plant, waste facilities, and end-of-trip amenities located in the basement.

According to the Urban Design Report, the design strategy centres on reinstating the heritage building’s prominence at this corner location, improving the public interface along George and Barlow Streets, and introducing finer-grained ground-level activation.&nbsp;

The new upper form is set back to respect the existing street wall, while providing a scale transition to taller nearby developments envisaged under the Central Precinct Renewal and Haymarket–Chinatown Public Domain plans.

The George and Barlow Street elevations, identified as the most significant heritage elements, would be retained, while less-significant facades to Parker Lane and the northern boundary would be adapted to suit the new program.

SLD Development was founded in 2015 and has developments in Killara, Kogarah, Sutherland, and Castle Hill.&nbsp;

They noted on their website that the Haymarket development is "set to redefine luxury living in the heart of Sydney."

"This prestigious project will feature an exquisite blend of a luxury hotel and premium residential apartments, offering unparalleled comfort and sophistication. Ideally located on George Street, this development enjoys high pedestrian exposure and provides seamless access to the best of the city."

The latest plans joins several major announcements in the last few months. Lendlease has sought to <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/lendlease-buys-approved-liverpool-st-hyde-park-development-site-on-sydney-cbd-fringe">develop around 200 apartments on Hyde Park</a>, while Charter Hall has been given approval to develop <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/nsw/city-of-sydney-backs-charter-hall-s-925m-hyde-park-tower">its Hyde Park tower</a>.

First look: Apartment and hotel plans proposed for Haymarket’s heritage-listed GIO Building

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>&nbsp;has kicked off construction at its new Edmondson Park masterplan, Chapter Place, a mixed0use residential and retail precinct that will bring up to 1,900 new homes to Sydney's thriving south west.

The ground was broken for the first 43, three-level terraces in the development, which will be completed within 12 months.

It is the first of Chapter Place’s five sites to be developed across 51,634 sqm. Located just 800 metres from Edmondson Park Station, an estimated 4,700 residents will call the $1.5 billion development home by mid-2030. &nbsp;

Urban CEO Patrick Elias said the precinct marked a new chapter in high-quality residential development for the region.&nbsp;

“This is the first step in creating an innovative, sustainable and welcoming community, offering a mix of well-connected homes that bring smart, practical living to Sydney’s South West,” Elias said. &nbsp;

“Chapter Place will support community growth and connection, contributing to the urgently &nbsp;needed local housing supply with beautifully designed, high amenity housing and shared &nbsp;open spaces.&nbsp;

“Importantly, the development will also include 272 designated affordable homes for essential workers.”&nbsp;

<img alt="Chapter Place" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ef159ec6-4ee0-4e3e-a34b-3c71ce11eb0f" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/250627%20-%20UPG%20Chapter%20Place%20-%20Kitchen%20SB-MB%20Side%20Final-min.jpg?VersionId=fwbw1IzDKXmSXwQQ7IbNB9INx2WUmT6E" />

Liverpool Mayor Ned Mannoun welcomed the new development in the booming South West.&nbsp;

“Chapter Place is a wonderful new addition for Edmondson Park – an area that’s attracting &nbsp;residents drawn to its open green spaces, public transport, schools and thriving job market &nbsp;due to the construction of Western Sydney Airport and nearby Bradfield City," Mannoun said.

“This project will create another 5,200 new jobs over the next five years, which is another &nbsp;terrific boost for southwest Sydney residents.”&nbsp;

The site was acquired in 2021 from Landcom, the New South Wales Government's land and &nbsp;property development organisation.&nbsp;

<img alt="Chapter Place" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="5dc7da9a-b5a7-492a-a432-8bc0144393e2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/250610%20-%20UPG%20Chapter%20Place%20-%20Rooftop%20Final-min.jpg?VersionId=InxydncyNnuezA6ccAnHeM.a.aZ0TU7B" />

Chapter Place showcases a range of innovative sustainability initiatives. In collaboration with Austral Bricks, Urban has created a custom brick produced just 22 kilometres from the site and incorporating 21 per cent recycled content. Carbon-neutral bricks will be used &nbsp;throughout the construction of Chapter Place apartments, reflecting a strong commitment to &nbsp;environmentally responsible design.&nbsp;

Other sustainability features include energy-efficient, fully electric appliances with maximum &nbsp;Energy Star ratings and solar battery storage to meet household operational energy needs. &nbsp;

Chapter Place follows Urban’s delivery of The Halston at North Strathfield, the first residential project to be completed under the NSW Government’s new affordable housing policy, which opened in June this year.&nbsp;

John Brogden, Chair of Urban’s Advisory Board, said the property marked another milestone in development for the Sydney market.&nbsp;

“This family-owned and run business is delivering a range of innovative and diverse housing &nbsp;choices that respond to changing needs and market demographics, especially in areas of &nbsp;high growth like Western Sydney.&nbsp;

“Chapter Place is another example of high-quality development that creates not just homes &nbsp;but thriving local communities.”&nbsp;

The first stage of 43 terrace homes, designed by Cox Architecture, is scheduled for completion in mid-2026. Construction on the second stage - comprising 63 terrace homes also designed by Cox - is set to commence in October, with completion expected by April 2027.&nbsp;

Urban CEO Patrick Elias said the precinct marked a new chapter in high-quality residential  development for the region

Urban Property Group reveals first stage of Chapter Place, 1,900 new homes in Edmondson Park

Spending

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GUEST OBSERVER
Household spending can be divided into three broad categories, services, retail trade, and non-retail goods. Where households spend has implications for overall economic activity. 
For example, spending in labour intensive services sectors, such as health, or restaurants, will typically have a larger impact on overall economic and jobs growth than spending on some retail goods, such as furniture and clothes, which are largely imported. In this note we look at the broad long- term trends in the three expenditure categories. 
Retail trade share of household spending has stabilised
<a href="/images/2016/11/16/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-16%20at%208.31.34%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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The retail trade share of household spending was on a long term downward trend but looks to have stabilised. In the early 1980’s retail trade accounted for over 40% of household spending compared to 31% today. The main beneficiary has been the services sector. Households have increased their share of spending on services from around 50 percent in the early 1980’s to around 60 percent now. 
The long run decline in the retail trade share of household spending reflects the fall in prices of retail goods relative to other goods and services. In volume terms, the retail trade share of total household spending has stayed very close to 30 percent since the data began in the early 1980’s.
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However, for the last three years the retail trade share of household spending has been flat. With volumes also being broadly steady, this shows that that the discounting of retail goods relative to other goods and services has eased. 
Part of the stabilisation of retail prices relative to services is due to the depreciation in the Australian dollar. This has helped to lift import prices in Aussie dollar terms. However RBA research shows that this lift has not been as large as would have been expected given the size of the depreciation. Increased competition is limiting the pass through from imported prices to sales prices. 
It also reflects a sharp slowing in services inflation since late 2013. Services inflation has typically been higher than for inflation for goods. However, both are now running at an annual rate of just 1.5 percent over the year to September. Inflation of market based services, such as meals out and hair cuts, has slowed more sharply to an annual rate of just 0.9 percent over the year to September. 
The slowing in services inflation, and inflation more generally, reflects a number of factors. Firstly there is spare capacity in the economy, which can be seen in the high rate of labour market underutilisation. Secondly, increased competition globally and advances in technology have reduced the pricing power in many markets.
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In a recent speech, RBA Governor Lowe spoke about how reduced pricing power was not just effecting the manufacturing sector, but service sectors too. Thirdly, job security fears have been heightened since the GFC. This means that workers are less inclined to push for wage increases, in sectors where part- time work is replacing full-time permanent positions.
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But services share is still increasing 
The share of household spending on services has increased over time. Spending on purely discretionary services, such as restaurants, accommodation and recreation, accounts for around 15% of household outlays. This share has been broadly stable over time. Contrary to popular perception, the share of spending on “meals out” has declined over time, now accounting for 5.2 percent of spending compared to 6.2 percent 30 years ago. 
So the upward trend has been driven by an increasing share of spending on non-discretionary services, such as rent, health, education, transport and communications. These categories account for 45 percent of household spending, having increased from around 30 percent 30 years ago. The shift in spending reflects relatively stronger price increases for these services as well as a change in preferences towards these areas. 
For example:
Insurance and other financial services – growth in this category is running at 6.5 percent over the year to June. As a share of housing spending, insurance and other financial services now accounts for 9.2 percent, compared to 8.4 percent three years ago.
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Growth in this category has been driven by an increase in the volume of spending. Excluding price effects, the proportion of spending on this category has also increased by a similar magnitude.
Consumers have shown a higher degree of caution around employment prospects in recent years. As a result they may be taking on a greater degree of insurance to guard against the loss of income, a decline in health or loss of other assets. There are also a larger number of products on offer.
Spending on health services rose by almost 10% over the year to June. The share of household spending continues to increase, accounting for around 5% compared to 4% ten years ago. The increase has been driven by both relatively strong price increases as well as an increase in volume of spending. The ageing population has also boosted spending on health and this trend will continue. A higher proportion of the population now has (subsidised) private health insurance which has boosted the number of elective procedures.
Education has also grown at an above average pace, with spending up 5.8% over the year. Education accounts for 4.7% of household spending compared to 3.5% 10 years ago. The increase in the share of spending is due to relatively strong price increases and also a larger volume of spending on this category. For example, a greater proportion of people are finishing year 12 and undertaking further education.
One category of discretionary services spending which has increased over time is overseas travel. As a share of household outlays, expenditure on travel has increased from 2.5 percent in the early 1980’s to around 3.7 percent now. The share of spending on flights has fallen as the relative cost has declined.
However outlays on overseas accommodation and other travel costs has increased.
Spending on non-retail goods is falling
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<div class="column">The retail trade share of household spending has stabilised in recent years. And the services share continues to increase. This means the share of spending on non-retail goods has declined. </div>
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 In particular, the share of spending on vehicles and their maintenance has fallen by 1 percent point over the past three years. There has been a long run downtrend in spending on these categories with the share of households spending around currently 7 percent compared to a peak of 11 percent in the 1980s. This largely reflects price falls – the price deflator for vehicles has declined by 25% since late 2007, while the deflator for the maintenance of vehicles is 7 percent lower over the past three years. Vehicles are cheaper, more reliable and can be funded via mortgage redraws at a lower cost.</div>
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 Summary</div>
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 Changes in relative pricing, which have reduced the price of goods relative to services, have contributed to some very long run trends in household spending. Households have spent an increasing share on the consumption of services, while spending on retail and other goods has declined.</div>
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 However the good news for retailers is that their share of household spending has been stable in recent years. This reflects a lower Australian dollar, which has lifted the price of some retail goods. However it also reflects a fall in the price of other consumption goods, such as cars, and a slowing in services inflation.</div>
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 With plenty of spare capacity in the labour market, wages growth and non- tradeables inflation are likely to remain soft for many years. This means the relative price of services is likely to remain subdued. And the upward trend in the services share of household spending may flatten out. </div>
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Kristina Clifton is economist, Commonwealth Bank, and can be contacted <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Trends in household spending: CBA's Kristina Clifton

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GUEST OBSERVER
Consumer confidence slipped 2.2 percent in March seeing it continue to lag behind business confidence which is a bit more upbeat.
Both consumer and business confidence are around their long term averages though.
<a href="/images/2016/03/9/image004.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Source: NAB, Westpac/MI, AMP Capital
Interestingly, all the talk of a crash in the Australian property market looks to have led to a sharp fall in the proportion of Australian’s nominating real estate as the wisest place for savings. It fell from 23.4% in December to 14.7% in March. With interest in shares also falling slightly and superannuation remaining low this saw a renewed spike in interest in bank deposits and paying down debt.
<a href="/images/2016/03/9/image006.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/9/image006.png" alt="">
Source: Westpac/MI, AMP Capital
Housing finance fell a greater than expected 3.4% in January with both finance to investors and particularly owner occupiers falling. The loss of momentum in lending to investors tells us that the APRA measures continue to impact and would probably be welcome by them and the RBA. The slowing in lending to owner occupiers may be more of an issue, but it’s dangerous to read too much into one month’s data. Nevertheless it is consistent with slower growth in housing related debt this year which in turn will likely see slower gains in Sydney and Melbourne property prices compared to last year.
Today’s consumer confidence and housing finance data while soft is unlikely to be enough to prompt the RBA to act on its easing bias just yet.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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Talk of a crash in the Australian property triggers sentiment shift to wiser investment places: Shane Oliver

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The NAB Online Retail Sales Index for the December 2015 quarter edition has estimated the Australian online retail market was worth $19.1bn in the 12 months to December 2015.
The survey noted month-on-month figures to December 2015 grew 2 percent, seasonally adjusted, driven in part by online sales growth on 2.5 percent. Australians spent an estimated $19.1 billion in retail online to December 2015. NAB report this level is equivalent to around 6.5% of the traditional bricks &amp; mortar retail sector.
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Australian online retail market worth $19.1bn in 2015: NAB

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GUEST OBSERVER
Retail sales were largely flat in December after rising for the prior four months. Aussie retailers have certainly faced their share of headwinds over the past year. And while it’s pretty clear that December was a soft month in terms of retail activity, the December quarter was essentially in line with longer-term averages.
What the result highlights is a momentum shift. Activity levels were strong at the start of the quarter but seem to have pulled back over the Christmas spending period. Interestingly the soft result was also mirrored in the Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Index (which measures all the debit and credit transactions that are processed across CBA eftpos terminals).
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The Reserve Bank has slightly downgraded growth forecasts in 2017 and 2018. However it is important to note that the forecast changes are downward tweaks rather substantial cuts.
And rather than any serious signs of panic or concern, the downward revisions effectively opened the door to another rate cut if it becomes necessary. 
Interestingly, the accompanying commentary certainly suggests that Board Members remain uncertain about the near term outlook for the domestic economy but the longer term prospects remain relatively sound.
Importantly the weaker near term growth story is really driven by the uncertainty in non-mining business investment. However given the rather more positive view on the longer term prospects – particularly the expectations for an ongoing slide in unemployment it is by no means assured that another interest rate cut is on the cards.
Two key concerns dominate central bank thinking. The first include how the rebalancing of the domestic economy (away from mining investment) is keeping pace. And the second is the uncertain impact of the recent financial turbulence – it has the potential to see businesses and households pullback in terms of activity. Interestingly the weakness in non-mining business investment is the one area that continues to occupy policymakers thoughts. A lift in business investment is the key to supporting growth and in providing an overall lift in jobs.
The policy stance is clearly slanted towards the potential for further rate cuts rather than rate hikes. Subdued global growth, a lower terms of trade, coupled with a lack of non-mining investment are some of the risks to domestic growth.
The Reserve Bank intimated on Tuesday that the economic outlook was improving while at the same time noting inflation was lower than expected. Clearly that gives the Reserve Bank scope to cut rates, if it was needed. But the Reserve Bank is not giving any indication that it intends to act on that ‘easing bias ’ any time soon. In fact we expect the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold over the rest of 2016.
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What do the figures show?
Retail trade – December month
Retail trade was flat in December after rising for the prior four months.  In trend terms, retail trade grew by 0.3 per cent in December.
Non-food retailing fell by 0.5 per cent in December after rising by 0.5 per cent in November. Non-food retail spending is up 4.6 per cent on a year ago.
Sales by chain-store retailers and other large retailers rose by 0.4 per cent in December to be up 6.4 per cent over the year.
Sales rose in five of the eight states and territories, led by the ACT (up 2.5 per cent), Northern Territory (up 0.3 per cent), Queensland and South Australia (both up 0.2 per cent), and NSW (up 0.1 per cent). Sales fell the most in Western Australia and Tasmania (both down 0.6 per cent), and Victoria (down 0.1 per cent).
Strongest growth in the month was by “Liquor retailing” (up 1.3 per cent) followed by “Footwear and other personal accessory retailing” (up 1.2 per cent) and clothing (up 1 per cent).
The biggest drop in sales in the month was recorded by “Electrical, Electronic &amp; Gas Goods Retailing” (down 1.7  per cent) followed by “Other recreational good retailing” (down 1.5 per cent) and “Hardware, building and garden supplies retailing” (down 1 per cent).
“Newspaper and book retailing”  (down 2.6 per cent) and “Department stores”  (down 0.9 per cent).
Retail trade – December quarter
In real (inflation-adjusted) terms, retail trade rose by 0.6 percent in the December quarter – marginally below the decade average of 0.7 per cent. In real terms sales were up 2.5 percent on a year ago – below the decade average of 2.9 percent.
Strongest growth in the quarter was by “Electrical, Electronic &amp; Gas Goods Retailing” (up 5.4 per cent – the best result in a year), followed by “Other recreational good retailing” (up 4.2 percent – the best result in two years.) and “Department stores” (up 1.8 per cent).
The biggest drop in sales in the quarter was recorded by “Other retailing – stationery goods, flowers, antiques” (down 4.4 per cent), followed by “Footwear and other personal accessory retailing” (down 2.8 per cent – the weakest quarterly result in three years), and “Other specialised retailing” (down 2.6 per cent).
Retail inflation lifted by 0.7 per cent in the December quarter – the biggest quarterly rise in two years. Retail prices are up 1.6 per cent over the year. Prices of goods at “Footwear and other personal accessory retailing” rose by 3.1 per cent, with “Other retailing – stationery goods, flowers, antiques” up 2.2 per cent, and “Supermarkets &amp; grocery stores” up 1.2 per cent.
Key take-aways from the Reserve Bank report
Below are our key “take-aways” from the Reserve Bank’s latest quarterly reviews. The full Statement on Monetary Policy can be found <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2016/feb/" target="_blank">here</a>: 
Forecasts: The RBA expects annual economic growth 2-3 cent and underlying inflation around 2.00 percent over the next few months.
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Economic outlook: “Forecasts for GDP growth are little changed from those presented in the November statement. Year ended GDP growth is forecast to be 2ó–3ó per cent over the year to December 2016, and to increase to 3–4 per cent over the year to June 2018.”
Inflation forecasts: “The December quarter inflation outcome was broadly in line with expectations in the previous Statement. The forecast for underlying inflation is little changed. Underlying inflation is expected to remain low over the forecast period...”
Non-mining business investment: “The outlook is for non-mining business investment to remain subdued in the near term. The ABS capital expenditure survey of firms’ investment intentions and the low level of non-residential building approvals suggest that the profile of nonmining investment will be a bit weaker than earlier”.
Labour market: “Labour market conditions have improved by more than expected at the time of the November Statement. Employment growth was above average over 2015 and the unemployment rate was around ó percentage point lower in the December quarter than earlier anticipated.”
“While employment growth is expected to slow somewhat from the rapid pace seen in the December quarter, it is forecast to remain strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate further. The participation rate is likely to rise further over coming years as individuals are encouraged to enter the labour market as employment opportunities improve.”
Foreign buyers: “ Information from the Bank’s liaison suggests that foreign buyers tend to have longterm motivations for investment and may be relatively unconcerned about temporary fluctuations in housing price growth.”
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Bureau of Statistics’  Retail trade publication contains the most current readings on the performance of consumer spending. The ABS surveys 500 ‘larger businesses’ and 2,750 ‘smaller businesses’. Retail trade covers spending at a broad range of retail outlets but excludes both petrol and motor vehicle sales. A weak retail trade result may point to a slowing economy as well weighing on the share prices of listed retail stocks. But retail trade estimates can’t be assessed in isolation – it is important to look at the influences determining future trends in consumer spending, such as income, employment and confidence levels.
The Reserve Bank releases its Statement on Monetary Policy each quarter. The Statement is the Reserve Bank’s assessment of economic and financial conditions and also contains the latest inflation views. The Statement is crucial is assessing the short-term outlook for interest rates.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The outlook for retailers remains positive. Lower petrol prices, firm confidence levels, strong home construction and rising employment all serve to boost spending levels. The only area that could instil some hesitancy in the average consumer is the weaker performance of the sharemarket.
The Reserve Bank will closely monitor developments in China and financial markets more generally. Encouragingly the Reserve Bank has plenty of firepower to provide stimulus to the economy. CommSec expects no change in the cash rate over the next year.
 
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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Spending stalls, RBA tips lower jobless rate: Savanth Sebastian

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GUEST OBSERVER
Retail sales posted a 0.5% rise in Oct, mid-way between the consensus forecast of 0.4% and Westpac’s 0.6% (although at 0.549%, closer to Westpac’s call in unrounded terms).That follows 0.4% gains in Aug and Sep.
Store categories recorded a mixed month with solid gains for basic food (+0.6% off a soft Sep), household goods (1.1% but still subdued given housing strength) and a decent bounce for department stores (+3.5% more than reversing the 1.6% drop in Sep. These were partially offset by a dip in cafes and restaurants (–0.6%) and basically flat results for clothing and ‘other retail’.
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The state results ranged high to low from NSW (+0.8% after a quiet Aug-Sep), to Vic &amp; Qld (0.5%, the former after solid gains in Aug-Sep, the latter after back to back declines), SA (+0.3% holding at insipid growth rates), and WA (flat, implying worsening per capita cuts in spending).
The monthly trend sales estimate suggests a slight improvement with annual growth lifting from a 3.6% annualised mid-year to around 3.9%yr currently. 
On a 3mth rolling basis however, annual sales growth is still softening from a peak of 4.6%yr in Q2 to 4% currently. On a broad store-type basis, the slowdown is coming from more moderate growth in household goods retail and a marginal softening in basic food, the contribution from other categories lifting a little. By state, it is mainly centred on NSW &amp; ACT, where strong sales growth had been driving about half of the gains nationally up until earlier this year.
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A significant wedge is starting to emerge between large and small retailers with the latter struggling again (sales down 0.4%yr). Growth is particularly strong for large non-food retailers (+8.9%yr).
October was a poor month for retailers' sales via online channels, with non seasonally adjusted sales up just 3.5%yr, the first time sales in this channel have dipped below non- online retail since the ABS started providing a split in 2013. Over that short period, online retail has typically grown at 51⁄2 times faster than total retail (i.e. 20%yr+).
All up the pace of sales growth remains sub-par, particularly given that retailers should be indirectly benefitting from the lower AUD's boost to Australia's tourism sector and a consistently more upbeat picture from private sector business surveys. Some of this likely reflects continued aggressive price competition in a range of sub-sectors (the monthly figures are nominal and thus include the impact of both volume and price changes). Recent reads from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey point to a more positive tone particularly around Christmas spending plans. Dec-Jan may see some better retail results.
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Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Australian retail sales on the up: Westpac's Matthew Hassan

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GUEST OBSERVER
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The latest data on economy-wide spending is best described as encouraging. Spending rose in September but slightly slower than the July and August results. Spending was mixed across sectors and states. But the good news is that the annual rate of economy-wide spending remains above longer-term averages.
While spending was up in the Business services category, it can prove volatile so it will be important to see a follow-up lift in sales. The large Retail Stores category (33% of economy-wide sales) rose by 0.5% in trend terms to be up 7.7% over the year – well above the long-term average growth pace of 5.7%.
There are few reasons to prompt the Reserve Bank to cut rates again. The economy is growing, sales are up, business and consumer sentiment are above average and our largest trading partner, China, is rebalancing from an industrial focus to a consumer spending focus and with some degree of success.
What does the data show?
The Commonwealth Bank Business Sales Indicator (BSI), a measure of economy-wide spending, recorded moderate sales growth in September, although down from previous months. The BSI lifted by 0.3% in September, the slowest growth in 35 months and down from 0.5% gains in July and August. Annual growth of spending eased for the third month to 6.8%, but still above the decade- average of 5.1%.
The seasonally-adjusted measure of sales posted a solid 2.8% gain in September – the strongest growth since May 2013. And annual growth lifted from 5.7% to a 10-month high of 8.9%. 
The Commonwealth Bank BSI is obtained by tracking the value of credit and debit card transactions processed through Commonwealth Bank merchant facilities. And in line with the practice of the Bureau of Statistics with its retail trade data, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the BSI are obtained by applying statistical software. The seasonally adjusted and trend BSI results are derived from the same SEASABS statistical software. This allows analysis of the broader underlying trends that may be hidden in the raw data. 
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Across sectors, eight of the 19 industry sectors fell in trend terms in September. But encouragingly, spending in the volatile Business Services category rose by 5.3%. Also notably sales rose at Miscellaneous Stores (up 1.2%), Transportation (up 0.9%), Contracted Services (up 0.8%).
The large Retail Stores sector grew by 0.5% in September after rising between 0.6-0.7% per month over the previous seven months.
Among the weakest sectors in September were Airlines (down 3.6%); Government services (down 1.6%), and Utilities (down by 0.7%). Sales at Personal Service Providers, Service Providers and Mail Order/Telephone Order Providers all fell by 0.2%. 
In annual terms in September, five of the 19 industry sectors contracted including: Utilities, Mail Order/Telephone Order Providers, Automobile and Vehicle Sales and Airlines.
At the other end of the scale, sectors with strongest annual growth in September included: Hotels &amp; Motels; Miscellaneous Stores; Amusement &amp; Entertainment, Service Providers and Wholesale Distributors &amp; Manufacturers.
Sales rose in only four of the states and territories in September: Tasmania (up 1.0%), South Australia (up 0.5%), Western Australia (up 0.4%) and Queensland (up by less than 0.1%). Sales fell the most in Victoria (down 0.8%), ACT (down 0.7%), Northern Territory (down 0.5%) and NSW (down 0.1%).
In annual terms, three states and territories had sales below a year ago in September: Northern Territory (down 8.3%), NSW (down 4.7%) and Victoria (down 1.7%). At the other end of the scale, growth was strongest in Tasmania (up 9.1%) from the ACT and South Australia (up 8.4%), Western Australia (up 7.9%), and Queensland (up 5.9%).
What is the importance of the report?
The Commonwealth Bank releases its Business Sales Index around the 20th each month. The data provides a broader perspective of consumer spending. The Business Sales Indicator includes transactions made at traditional retail establishments such as supermarkets, clothing stores and cafes &amp; restaurants and as such is more comparable to the ABS Household Final Consumption Expenditure released on a quarterly basis. The Business Sales Indicator also covers businesses such as airlines, car dealers and utilities such as water and electricity companies as well as motels, business, professional and government services and wholesalers.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The latest data adds to our view that the Reserve Bank will leave official rates unchanged in coming months. 
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Craig James is chief economist, CommSec and Savanth Sebastian is economist, CommSec. Both can be contacted <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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