Residential Markets

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The Lismore, Casino and Kyogle residential markets remain stable, and are being primarily driven by local investors.
According to the June report from valuation firm Herron Todd White, the market segment is being driven primarily by the local market and doesn’t include many non-local investors.
Rural townships such as the Casino and Kyogle CBDs continue to remain steady with no drop in sales volume, according to the report.
The established housing sector remains steady and is the primary product purchased in the Lismore (pictured)/Casino/Kyogle shire.
The valuation firm notes that in general, there are not many new homes being sold in Casino or Kyogle, however, a high number of construction loans are ongoing for new builds in Goonellabah and Lismore and the occasional sale of a new duplex unit.
The rural residential property market located west of the Casino and Kyogle CBDs hasn’t seen much market movement lately and sales continue to remain relatively steady.
Sales in these secondary locations tend to not be as quick to market as those of the smaller residential sales that have a superior location.
Housing statistics in the Lismore region, specifically auction clearance rates, are generally good depending on the type of property in the market.
"Auctions of smaller residential properties seem to see the best results and have a steady presence in today’s market," the report said.
"The general outlook remains steady for houses in the Lismore/Casino/Kyogle shire as we move into the second half of the year", HTW suggests.
Values seem to be increasing and sale volumes remain strong.
As for units located in this area, there is not a lot of product and sales for this particular sector are thinning.
The main drivers for the Lismore/Casino/Kyogle market include retirees and people who wish to move closer to the CBD within these townships.
It is these sales that contribute to the continuation of steady market sales within this region, the valuers conclude.
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Lismore, Casino and Kyogle residential markets attracting local investors: HTW 

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was recently released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the March 2016 quarter.  
The headline measure of CPI was extremely weak over the quarter, falling by -0.2 percent to be just 1.3 percent higher over the past 12 months. 
The -0.2 percent quarterly fall was the weakest result since December 2008 and the 1.3 percent annual increase was the weakest reading in a year. The annual change in CPI is also well below the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) target range of between 2 percent and 3 percent annually over the cycle. The RBA likes to look at measures of underlying inflation which strip out the more volatile items. 
The two measures of underlying inflation at the trimmed mean and the weighted median and over the past year they have increased by 1.7 percent and 1.4 percent respectively over the past year.
<a href="/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-30%20at%203.32.21%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-30%20at%203.32.21%20AM.png" alt="">
The housing component of CPI, which has the largest weighting, increased by 1.7 percent over the year which is the lowest reading since December 1998.  It shows that housing costs are increasing at a faster pace than headline CPI but at a very low rate on an historic basis. 
Importantly, the housing component of CPI does not include all property transactions, only including owner occupier purchases of new dwellings.  As a result it does not take into consideration the inflation of costs associated with purchasing established properties by owner occupiers or purchase of both new and existing properties by investors.  Over recent years the established and investor markets have been quite active and resulted in some strong home value growth particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. 
The housing component of CPI also includes measures of change for rental prices, utilities and other housing costs such as maintenance and government charges including rates.
<a href="/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-30%20at%203.36.52%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-30%20at%203.36.52%20AM.png" alt="">
Combined capital city home values have increased by 7.2 percent in nominal terms over the 12 months to March 2016 while in real terms values have increased by 5.0 percent. Across individual cities, real home values have fallen in Perth and Darwin and have increased by less than 3.5 percent in all capital cities other than Sydney and Melbourne.
<a href="/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-30%20at%203.39.23%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-30%20at%203.39.23%20AM.png" alt="">
Taking a longer term look over the past five, 10 and 15 years shows that real home value changes has been mixed. All capital cities outside of Sydney and Melbourne have recorded declines in real home values over the past 5 years. Even pushing the analysis to 10 years shows values are lower in Hobart, while in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Canberra real home value growth has been less than 1.5 percent per annum over the period. 
While Sydney has seen the highest value growth over the past 5 years and amongst the highest over the decade, over the past 15 years it has actually seen the lowest real value growth of all capital cities due to the weak market conditions that were evident in Sydney between 2004 and 2009.  It is noticeable that across each capital city, real home value changes have been stepping down over time with the 15 year timeframe showing stronger growth than the 10 year timeframe which is in-turn higher than the 5 year rate of inflation adjusted growth.
<a href="/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-30%20at%203.44.58%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/29/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-30%20at%203.44.58%20AM.png" alt="">
Another way to look at real home value changes is to look at the change in values since their previous market peak. The above chart shows that real values have breached their previous peaks of March 2004 in Sydney and September 2010 in Melbourne.
 In all other capital cities real home values continue to languish below their previous peaks.  In markets like Brisbane (March 2008 peak), Perth (September 2007 peak) and Hobart (December 2007 peak) it has been an extremely long period of time since real home values have increased. While this would is likely to be disappointing for home owners, for those looking to purchase it indicates that the cost of housing has been becoming more affordable, notwithstanding the fact that mortgage rates are close to record lows and household incomes are relatively flat.
Just because real home values outside of Sydney and Melbourne continue to become more affordable doesn’t necessarily mean that purchasers will jump into these markets.  Despite ongoing increases in home values across Sydney and Melbourne, these cities have continued to see housing demand rise. Some of this is due to increasing demand from offshore buyers but it largely has to do with the much better economic performance of these two cities compared to other regions around the country. 
More affordable housing alone is not enough to drive people to buy outside of Sydney and Melbourne; solid economies, good job prospects, a desirable lifestyle and housing offering are all major considerations as to whether or not someone will purchase a property rather than just price alone. 
Although we are anticipating a slowdown in value growth in Sydney and Melbourne it won’t necessarily result in increasing demand elsewhere.  However, with some cities showing improving economic conditions and higher yield profiles, those with significant equity in their Sydney and Melbourne properties may look to start investing in other cities.  Furthermore, those prospective buyers being priced out of Sydney and Melbourne housing may be attracted away from these cities to the regions with more affordable housing however, securing employment will for many, be a significant consideration in any move. 
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Inflation adjusted home values lower than previous peaks in all cities other than Sydney and Melbourne: CoreLogic RP Data's Cameron Kusher

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A new masterplanned community in Botany, <a href="https://www.frasersproperty.com.au/SMP/NSW/Tailors-Walk/Botany" target="_blank">Tailor’s Walk</a>, which was launched in December, has drawn good response showing robust demand for terrace homes.
Developed by Frasers Property Australia, 48 of the 173 properties offered in the first release were snapped up quickly, with seven of the initial 18 terrace homes offered sold at prices ranging from $1,600,000 to $1,660,000.
Prices at Tailor’s Walk start at $600,000 for the one-bedroom apartments, $790,000 for the two-bedroom apartments, $1,065,000 for the three-bedroom apartments, and $1,600,000 for the four-bedroom terrace homes.
The terraces within this release all span three levels, in four-bedroom configurations, and all have open-plan layouts.
“Each terrace home has been designed to maximise space and capture natural light via the two storey light well. This was definitely a strong selling point among the many interested buyers,” said Dino Carulli, sales and marketing director, Frasers Property Australia.
Designed by GroupGSA, the terrace homes include storage and basement parking, two bathrooms plus powder room, a second living area with double height ceilings, range in size from 232 – 237sqm and have direct access to private landscaped gardens.
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Botany development Tailor's Walk draws good response

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The most expensive weekend sale in Canberra was a $2.32 million renovated family home at Forrest. 
Mario Sanfrancesco and Andrew Chamberlain at Peter Blackshaw were the selling agents of <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-act-forrest-121202810" target="_blank">56 Dominion Circuit</a>.
The property has an annual appreciation of 4.97% having last traded in 2012 for $1.995 million.
The 1602 sqm property is located just a few minutes walk from Capitol Hill and the parliament buildings.
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