ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.

Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.

That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.

The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.

The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.

Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.

Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.

The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.

Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.

Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.

That’s important.

While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.

ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.

That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.

However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.

The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.

ANZ is less convinced.

The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.

That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.

If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.

It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.

The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.

On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.

For now, the Board is choosing to wait.

But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.

In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.

For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.

And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.

According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.

The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]

The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.

Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.

VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.

“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]

The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.

The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.

Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.

The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.

The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]

VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.

The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.

For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.

Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.

Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.

<img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" />

At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.

That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.

The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.

The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.

Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.

Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.

&nbsp;

The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.

Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.

The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.

The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.

One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.

The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.

The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.

Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.

New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.

The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.

Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.

It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.

Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.

Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.

The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.

This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.

Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.

That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.

“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Rental Affordability

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Hobart remains the least affordable city to rent in Australia, followed by Adelaide which has overtaken Sydney as the second least affordable capital city, the latest release of the Rental Affordability Index (RAI) has found.
The RAI is an indicator of the price of rents relative to household incomes based on new rental agreements. It is released annually by National Shelter, Community Sector Banking, SGS Economics &amp; Planning and the Brotherhood of St Laurence.  
Rental affordability in some Australian cities, including Sydney, has improved marginally. However, the situation is untenable for people on Newstart, with rent costing at least 77% of their income in every capital city. 
Adrian Pisarski, Executive Officer, National Shelter, said: “There is not one place in Australia where a Newstart recipient can rent affordably.  
“Newstart renters in metro Sydney require 4.5 times their current income to achieve affordability. The most affordable places we have are in regional SA and even there someone on Newstart needs to pay 47% of their income to rent.  
“The RAI evidence is conclusive: all Newstart recipients who are renting are living in poverty. The situation is only marginally better for single and dual pensioners who also face unaffordable rents everywhere in Australia. 
“The implications for retirement incomes policy are dire with more people retiring without owning and facing a completely unaffordable rental market. We know older women are the fastest growing cohort experiencing homelessness and we’d expect increased rates of homelessness among older people based on these findings.”
Ellen Witte, Partner at SGS Economics and Planning said: “People on Newstart are the most vulnerable cohort in the country as they experience the worst levels of housing stress. 
“After paying the rent there are not enough resources left, and people may not even be able to fork out money to go to a job interview. There is an urgent need to raise the Newstart allowance and provide these households a pathway out of the poverty trap.”
James Barron, Head of Relations at Community Sector Banking, said: “Looking beneath the headline figures, rental stress is affecting the majority of very low-income households in Australia. People on Newstart are being hit particularly hard, being pushed to the outer fringes of our cities and away from opportunities for training and employment.
“Even in cities with higher than average incomes and better than average rental affordability, the plight of low-income renters continues to deteriorate.”
Conny Lenneberg, Executive Director of the Brotherhood of St Laurence, said that Newstart is the second-lowest unemployment payment in the OECD group of wealthy nations. When rent assistance is included, compared to other nations’ housing benefits, Newstart plunges to the lowest payment.
“Our social security safety net is letting down fellow citizens. There is an urgent need to raise Newstart and its very modest rental supplement and to increase subsidised social housing. 
“The evidence is utterly compelling: the deeply inadequate Newstart rate is a driver of homelessness. This is not the ‘fair-go’ society we cherish. 
“With high rents, single older job seekers and families with young children are in the eye of the affordable housing storm across the country. We are seeing increasing disparities, and the crisis end of this challenge is visible on our streets.” 
No relief for low-income households 
Rental stress has become so entrenched and severe for low-income households that the recent improvement in some cities has brought little relief – with the situation for most low-income households in these metropolitan areas remaining untenable.
More than a million households need some form of housing assistance, while 43% of low-income households experience rental stress. 
“Many working families and all non-working groups on benefits face severe rental affordability issues,” Pisarski said. 
“Renting households on incomes below $60,000 per annum have no affordable rentals in our cities, including all capitals and nearly every centre on the east coast. In the WA mining regions, even those earning up to $85,000 face unaffordable rents.”
A vision needed for Hobart 
A score of 100 and below on the RAI shows that households on average incomes would be required to spend at least 30% of their income on rent. A score of 100-120 indicates households are facing moderately unaffordable rents.  
Greater Hobart is the only capital city where rental affordability has dropped below the critical threshold of 100, falling to a RAI score of 93 in June 2019 and putting the city’s rent’s in the unaffordable category. This means that average income households are paying 30% of their income or more on rent.
The second least affordable capital city is Greater Adelaide, with a score of 113, surpassing Sydney, with a score of 119. Rents in both cities are considered moderately unaffordable.  
“Hobart is in the midst of a rental crisis, the worst in the country,” Witte, said. 
“The rents have been increasing by 10% per annum over the last three years. No matter how hard you work, you won’t be able to keep up with price rises like this. The market is failing and there is an urgent need for the government to intervene.
“There is a lack of new supply, while stock is being lost to the short-term holiday accommodation market. The rights of renters are weak, and the Tasmanian Residential Tenancy Act needs to be reviewed like Victoria has done.”
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Hobart is Australia’s most unaffordable city for renters: RAI

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Rental affordability has improved in Western Australia, according to the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIWA).
The group's Housing Affordability Report reveals the proportion of family income required to meet the median rent has improved to 16.4% – a decrease 0.1% from three months ago. 
REIWA President Damian Collins said the state is currently the most affordable place to rent in Australia.
“With coastal suburbs in high demand leading into warmer months, it is pleasing to see that it is now even more affordable to live in these desired locations, especially compared to the east coast which is unheard of for tenants to be able to rent a house in a coastal suburb for less than $450 per week,” Collins said. 
reiwa.com data revealed that the top 10 most affordable coastal suburbs were all under $300 per week with Shoalwater, Mandurah, Falcon, Butler and Eglinton leading the top five.  
“Topping the list is Shoalwater which has a median rent price of only $250 per week and is $24 less than a year ago,” Collins said. 
“Located just metres away from the Shoalwater Marine Park, it is no wonder why August reiwa.com data saw rental properties being snapped up on an average of only 17 days.”
Of the 10 suburbs that made the reiwa.com list, six were located in the south of Perth, within a few kilometres from one another. 
Collins said the south metropolitan area held a lot of opportunity for renters who wanted to live close to the coast, yet only a train ride away from the city.  
“The median price in suburbs like Rockingham, Safety Bay and Silver Sands is hovering around the $300 mark, which is notably lower than the Perth median price per week of $360,” Collins said.  
While Cottesloe and Fremantle do not fall into the most affordable suburbs in the Perth coastal area, their median rent of $578 and $420 per week is still more affordable than St Kilda or Bondi Beach which has a median of $650 and $1,325 per week. 
“It won’t always be this way, so I advise those looking for their next rental property to act sooner rather than later if they are wanting to secure an affordable home close to an iconic WA coastal suburb.”
<table border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Suburb</td>
<td>Median rent price</td>
<td>Change over 12 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1. Shoalwater</td>
<td>$250 </td>
<td>- $24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2. Mandurah</td>
<td>$270</td>
<td>+ $11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3. Falcon</td>
<td>$290</td>
<td>- $5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4. Butler</td>
<td>$300</td>
<td>+ $5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5. Eglinton</td>
<td>$300</td>
<td>+ $0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6. Merriwa</td>
<td>$300</td>
<td>+ $5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7. Ridgewood</td>
<td>$300</td>
<td>+ $0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8. Rockingham</td>
<td>$300</td>
<td>+ $17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9. Safety Bay</td>
<td>$300</td>
<td>+ $5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10. Silver Sands</td>
<td>$300</td>
<td>+ $0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Greater Perth</td>
<td>$360</td>
<td>+ $10</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
A current listing is a Shoalwater three bedroom pet friendly house priced at $250 per week (pictured below). 
Positioned between Lake Richmond and the beach, the home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-shoalwater-427410202" target="_blank">10 Ninda Road</a> comprises three bedrooms, main living, kitchen and sunroom off laundry.
Other features include paved backyard, large shed, patio and four carport spaces. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/16/shoalwater.jpg" alt="">
A new two bedroom apartment in Mandurah has been listed for $270 per week (pictured below). 
The apartment at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-mandurah-427305302" target="_blank">1/6 Forward Street</a> comes with two bedrooms, open plan living, kitchen and private courtyard.
It's situated within walking distance to shops, Mandurah foreshore and cafes. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/9/16/mandurah.jpg" alt="">
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Perth's top 10 most affordable coastal suburbs to rent: REIWA 

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Rental affordability improved during the June 2019 quarter to the lowest proportion of income required to meet rent payments since June 2008, according to research from the Real Estate Institute of Australia.
REIA President Adrian Kelly said the June quarter 2019 edition of the REIA Housing Affordability Report found the proportion of income required to meet rent payments decreased to 23.8%, a fall of 1.2 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same quarter 2018. 
Kelly said housing affordability declined marginally across the country in the June quarter 2019.
“This is due to the rise in the average loan amounts after the lower levels of the March quarter – which appears to be an annual pattern,” Kelly said.  “With the exception of Western Australia, housing affordability declined in all states and territories. Although average loan amounts increased in all states and territories between 0.2% and 6.2% only Western Australia’s family income surpassed their increase in the loan amount.” 
Kelly said the total number of loans increased over the June quarter by 6.6%.  “The number of loans to owner occupier first home buyers has recorded increases in five of the six months of 2019. However, compared to the previous twelve months there was 16,521 less new housing loans - a decrease of 15.1%.  “This upward trend in first home buyer loans is expected to continue as over the past few years there has been an increase in the final quarter of the year.”
REIA's State by State review:
<ul>
<li>New South Wales</li>
</ul>
Over the June quarter, housing affordability in New South Wales declined with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments increasing to 37.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points over the quarter but a decrease of 1.0 percentage points compared with the corresponding quarter 2018. With the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments 6.0 percentage points higher than the nation’s average, New South Wales remained the least affordable state or territory in which to buy a home. The number of loans to first home buyers increased to 6,822, an increase of 17.7% over the quarter but a decrease of 5.9% compared to the June quarter 2018.  Rental affordability improved in New South Wales over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet median rent payments decreasing to 28.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over the June quarter and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year. 
<ul>
<li>Victoria</li>
</ul>
Over the June quarter, housing affordability remained steady in Victoria with the proportion of family income devoted to meeting average loan repayments at 32.5%. However, when compared to the previous year, housing affordability increased, with the proportion of family income required to meeting average loan repayments decreasing 1.8 percentage points.  The number of loans to first home buyers in Victoria increased to 8,500, an increase of 18.0% over the quarter but a decrease of 5.7% compared to the June quarter 2018. 
Rental affordability in Victoria improved over the quarter with the proportion of income required to meet median rent decreasing to 23.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 0.3% over the previous year. 
<ul>
<li>Queensland</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability declined in Queensland over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet home loan repayments increasing to 28.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the quarter and an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year. 
Over the June quarter, the number of loans to first home buyers in Queensland increased to 4,755, an increase of 1.6% over the quarter but a decrease of 17.8% compared to the same quarter of 2018. 
Rental affordability in Queensland improved over the quarter with the proportion of the median family income required to meet the median rent decreasing to 21.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same quarter 2018.
<ul>
<li>South Australia</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in South Australia declined with the proportion of income required to meet monthly loan repayments increasing to 27.1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the quarter and an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the June quarter 2018. 
Over the June quarter, the number of loans to first home buyers in South Australia increased to 1,588, an increase of 15.9% over the quarter and an increase of 10.2% compared to the June quarter 2018
Rental affordability in South Australia, improved over the quarter with the proportion of income required to meet rent payments decreasing to 22.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points over the quarter but remaining stable compared to the June quarter 2018.  
<ul>
<li>Western Australia</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in Western Australia improved with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments decreasing to 22.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the June quarter 2018. 
The number of first home buyers in Western Australia increased to 3,473 in the June quarter, an increase of 4.8% over the quarter but a decrease of 7.5 percentage points compared to the same time last year.
Rental affordability in Western Australia also improved during the June quarter with the proportion of family income required to meet the median rent decreasing marginally to 16.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter but an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the year before. 
<ul>
<li>Tasmania</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in Tasmania declined over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet home loan repayments increasing to 25.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the quarter and an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the June quarter 2018. 
The number of first home buyers in Tasmania decreased to 430, a decrease of 9.7% over the quarter and a decrease of 6.1% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. 
Rental affordability in Tasmania also declined over the quarter with the proportion of income required to meet median rents increasing to 29.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the quarter and an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared with the June quarter 2018. 
<ul>
<li>Northern Territory</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in the Northern Territory declined with the proportion of income required to meet loan repayments increasing to 20.6% in the June quarter, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the quarter but a decrease of 0.9 percentage points when compared to the June quarter 2018. 
The number of loans to first home buyers in the Northern Territory increased to 274, an increase of 46.5% over the June quarter and an increase of 54.8% compared to the June quarter 2018. 
Rental affordability in the Northern Territory however, improved over the quarter with the proportion of income required to meet the median rent decreasing to 20.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points over the quarter and a decrease of 2.4 percentage points compared to the June quarter 2018.
<ul>
<li>Australian Capital Territory</li>
</ul>
Housing affordability in the Australian Capital Territory declined over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet home loan repayments increasing to 20.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the quarter but a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year. 
The number of loans to first home buyers in the Australian Capital Territory increased to 408, an increase of 4.1% over the quarter but a decrease of 24.2% compared to the June quarter 2018.
Rental affordability in the Australian Capital Territory, improved marginally over the June quarter with the proportion of income required to meet the median rent decreasing to 18.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the quarter but an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the June quarter 2018. 
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Rental affordability hits 11-year high: REIA 

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It has been increasingly obvious Sydney housing affordability was deteriorating based on the number of years’ worth of income required to purchase a home.
The significant gap also exists between incomes and the cost of renting.
The situation is particularly dire for single income households.
Professor David Adamson, from the University of South Wales, noted in the recent Housing Affordability Income Gap report, that the geography of housing unaffordability was increasingly hurting middle-income families.
Historically rents have been more closely pegged to incomes than property prices, but this link appears to be weakening.
Adamson suggests we have a broken housing system as between 2006 and 2016, Sydney median rents have increased by 76% while incomes have increased by 51%.
"The analysis tells us that this isn’t simply an experience of the few but that occupations often seen as middle-class and well paid are increasingly experiencing housing stress in order to live close to their place of work."
The report concluded typical households face the choice between living a considerable distance from the city, or living in a one-bedroom apartment.
If neither option was practical, these households are effectively forced to accept living in housing stress.
Avoiding stress on a two-bedroom apartment in Sydney’s inner suburbs required a $121,000 income.
The report notes the median rent in Sydney is $530 per week which would be enough to secure a three-bedroom house in Blacktown, but not enough for a two-bedroom unit in Burwood.
The report found two-bedroom units in Sydney’s middle ring are affordable, however affordability income gaps exist in the Canada Bay, Hunters Hill, Ku-ring-gai and Willoughby LGAs. 
Sydney’s outer ring is affordable for renting, although income gaps exist for detached dwellings in Hornsby, Northern Beaches, Sutherland, and The Hills Shire.
Since June 2000, regions in Sydney’s west such as Blacktown and Fairfield have experienced rent increases of 125% and 145% respectively, compared to 87% in Mosman, and 94% in Woollahra.
The effect is even more pronounced in satellite cities on the outskirts of Sydney such as Newcastle, where rents are up 150%, and Wollongong with rents up by 168%. 
With relatively lower incomes, renters of detached dwellings in the outlying locations and regional NSW face housing stress too.
The report acknowledges the 30-year boom in house prices has made a lot of people extremely wealthy, "at least on paper".
It then suggests the wealth effect was "perhaps why so many have been willing to turn a blind eye to the economic and social fallout for so long".
It slammed policy makers for "aiding this wilful blindness by using cheap credit and immigration to create the illusion of an economy running on all cylinders".
The AHIG report noted dwelling prices have experienced modest declines over the year with Sydney leading the way, down 4.5%.
"It would be a mistake however for policy makers to take this as a sign that no action is required," the report concluded, noting for Australian housing to meet any accepted definition of affordability, prices would have to fall by 60% from the 2017 peak.
It conceded any major fall in prices could spark a deep and painful recession.
However a recession "sparked by a housing bust should be viewed as an opportunity to address the systemic problems that enabled the emergence of the crisis in the first place,' it ill-advisedly countenances.
This article first appeared in The Daily Telegraph. 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydney's rental affordability is hurting middle-income families 

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Hospitality workers, pensioners and minimum wage earners are being crippled by rental stress in metropolitan areas across Australia, according to the May Rental Affordability Index (RAI).
The RAI is a price index for housing rental markets released biannually by National Shelter, Community Sector Banking and SGS Economics &amp; Planning. It’s an indicator of rental affordability relative to household incomes.
The latest RAI found Hobart has overtaken Sydney to become the least affordable capital city in Australia, followed by Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Canberra and Perth.
Unaffordability for very low-income households is most severe in Sydney and Canberra, where median incomes are well above the national average.
“The latest Rental Affordability Index shows the rental crisis continues. Financial stress, overcrowding and insecurity are the everyday reality of working families,” Ellen Witte, Partner at SGS Economics and Planning said.
Adrian Pisarski, Executive Officer at National Shelter said that while there has been some slight improvement in some capitals, the situation has not improved at all for low income households. “For households below the median income rental affordability remains a real problem while for households on moderate and low wages and benefits we have a genuine crisis in rental affordability,” Pisarski said.
“The latest RAI shows the serious need for a national housing plan – without action, lower income earners will be forced from our cities and capitals like Sydney will lose vital workers, like those in hospitality,” said Andrew Cairns, CEO of Community Sector Banking.
Conny Lenneberg, Executive Director of the Brotherhood of St. Laurence, said the data reflected the struggles of low income renters the Brotherhood worked with in outer suburbs of major cities and regional areas.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/23/TABLE%201.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/23/TABLE%201.jpg" target="_blank"> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/23/TABLE%201.jpg" alt=""></a>
This is the first release of the Rental Affordability Index since the Brotherhood of St. Laurence joined SGS Economics &amp; Planning, National Shelter and Community Sector Banking as a sponsor.
“This study shows the depths of the housing crisis facing Australian renters on low incomes,” Lenneberg said. “People are facing deep challenges securing affordable housing in the private rental market, pushed further and further away from the areas from where the jobs are located.’’
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/23/TABLE%202.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
 <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/23/TABLE%202.jpg" alt="">
“For some vulnerable people who are unemployed, the combination of very low rates of Newstart -  as little as $38.98 a day for a single unemployed person - and rising rents for even modest accommodation, is proving unbearable. The consequence is that people are being pushed into homelessness.” 
Speaking on what could be done to address the crisis, Witte said, “there are opportunities to further streamline development planning processes, but more importantly to invest in social and affordable housing for workers. The use of instruments like the density bonus and inclusionary zoning needs to be maximised.”
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/23/TABLE%203.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/23/TABLE%203.jpg" alt="">
 
National Shelter are also calling for change.
“The data demonstrates the need for national leadership and a national housing strategy. We need to bring the threads of tax reform, incentives to encourage greater investment by institutional finance and states, planning reforms and urban and regional development together to tackle this problem,” Pisarski said. 
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/23/TABLE%205.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/23/TABLE%205.jpg" alt="">
Tasmania 
With a RAI of 102 in the December quarter, greater Hobart is now the least affordable capital city in Australia. Rents in Hobart are now unaffordable to even average income households.
The average household in Hobart faces rents at 29% of total income, putting it on the verge of housing stress – when it becomes difficult to afford essentials, like food and healthcare.
And the problem is spreading –  areas such as Margate and Sorell are also now unaffordable to median households.
The situation is most dire for those on lower incomes. A single pensioner faces severely unaffordable rents at 44% of income, while pensioner couples faces rents at 32% of income, which is deemed unaffordable.
With a RAI of 121, the average household in regional Tasmania faces rent at around 25% of income.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/23/TABLE%204.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/23/TABLE%204.jpg" alt="">
New South Wales
With a RAI of 113 in the December quarter of 2017, rents remain moderately unaffordable on average in Sydney. It’s performing marginally better than estimated, thanks to increased income levels from Census data.
A single pensioner household faces spending 94% of income on rent. This extreme level of housing stress is exacerbated by other pressures such as increased healthcare costs and reduced mobility.
Regional NSW remains the least affordable regional area studied in Australia, with a RAI of 112 median households face rents at 27% of income.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/5/23/TABLE%206.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/5/23/TABLE%206.jpg" alt="">
Victoria
With a RAI of 126 in the December quarter of 2017, the median household in Greater Melbourne faces rents at around 24% of total income, which is considered acceptable.
However, unaffordable rents are spreading from the city centre. Areas in the west, north, east and south of Melbourne, such Altona, Coburg, Heidelberg, and Oakleigh, became moderately unaffordable in the last quarter. They previously had acceptable rents.
“Australia’s food capital is unaffordable for hospitality workers and minimum wage households,” Witte said. “Full-time hospitality workers may pay 34% of their income on rent, forcing them into housing stress.
With a RAI of 123, regional Victoria is the only regional area studied in Australia, alongside regional NSW, that is even less affordable than its metropolitan counterpart.
Queensland
With a RAI of 121 in the December quarter, the average household in Brisbane faces rents at 25% of total income – rents are considered acceptable for the first time since the inception of the Index in 2012.
However, rents remain unaffordable to lower income households. A single pensioner faces severely unaffordable rents at 65% of income. It’s just as dire for pensioner couples, who face rents at 41% of income, also deemed severely unaffordable.
Regional Queensland recorded a RAI of 122, with the average household facing rents at 25% of total income.
Australian Capital Territory
The ACT recorded a RAI of 128 in the December quarter of 2017, with median households facing rents at 23% of income, which is deemed acceptable.
With the level of affordability driven by relatively high incomes in the ACT, those on lower incomes face particularly unaffordable rents. A single person on benefits faces extremely unaffordable rents at 109% of income, while a single part-time worker parent on benefits faces rents at 58% of income, which is severely unaffordable.
South Australia 
With a RAI of 117 in the December quarter, there has been very little fluctuation in rental affordability in Adelaide in recent months – the score has not changed for six quarters. 
However, unaffordable rents have spread to more suburbs north of the city – Wingfield, Parafield Gardens and Para Hills declined from acceptable to moderately unaffordable.
Across the Adelaide foothills rents range from moderately unaffordable to unaffordable. 
A single person on benefits faces rents at 70% of income, which are extremely unaffordable, while a single part-time worker parent on benefits faces severely unaffordable rents at 40% of income.
Regional South Australia continues to see improving rental affordability. With a RAI of 137, regional SA is at its most affordable since at least mid-2012 when the Index began.
Western Australia
With a RAI of 145 in the December quarter, the latest report shows a continued record improving trend in rental affordability in Perth – the median household faces rents at 21% of total income, which is considered acceptable. 
Despite the continued improvement, rents remain unaffordable for lower income households. A single part-time worker parent on benefits faces rents at 46% of income, which is severely unaffordable.
Rental affordability has declined in regional Western Australia, which recorded a RAI of 153 in the December quarter of 2017.
 
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Australian city rental stress becoming too much for minimum wage earners

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<h1>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hal-pawson-147969" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">Hal Pawson</a>, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
</h1>
As everyone supposedly knows, fixing housing unaffordability is simply a matter of <a href="https://thekouk.com/item/413-house-prices-are-surging-because-of-low-supply-it-s-economics-101" target="_blank">boosting housing supply</a>. But wait! With their <a href="http://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/research/publications/regional-housing-supply-and-demand-australia" target="_blank">just-published report</a> on house-building and population growth, ANU academics Ben Phillips and Cukkoo Joseph have blown yet another hole in <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/evidence-in-action/news/transcript-of-treasurers-address-on-housing-affordability-now-available" target="_blank">that sacred claim</a>.
By comparing housing demand and supply at a sub-regional level, their analysis highlights evidence that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-supply-alone-wont-fix-the-affordability-crisis-modelling-shows-20171119-gzobxa" target="_blank">in many parts of Australia</a> – not least inner Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane – house-building has been running well ahead of local household growth for the past few years. Yet these are hardly areas where prices have dived.
In the City of Sydney, for example, <a href="http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/about-us/reports-plans-and-papers/rent-and-sales-reports/issue-120" target="_blank">overall median apartment prices rose by 52%</a> in the five years to March 2017. On the ANU analysis, this area has recently been oversupplied relative to population. Yet apartment prices here still rose at the same rate as across Greater Sydney, a region with some areas of undersupply.
<hr>
Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-almost-a-world-leader-in-home-building-so-that-isnt-a-fix-for-affordability-73514" target="_blank">Australia’s almost a world leader in home building, so that isn’t a fix for affordability</a>
<hr>
<h2>Politicians’ worn-out excuse</h2>
Previous commentaries have highlighted <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-government-says-it-has-a-plan-to-fix-the-housing-affordability-crisis-this-chart-suggests-it-doesnt-20160902-gr7sbz" target="_blank">the recently strong positive correlation</a> between rapidly expanding housing supply and property inflation. But these correctives to the popular wisdom have failed to gain traction.
This is partly because of the continuing seductive appeal of the common sense claim that rising prices reflect gross shortage. So, it’s reasoned, expanding house building will moderate the market.
As my Sydney University colleague Peter Phibbs <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/peter-phibbs/our-politicians-need-to-read-chapter-1-of-an-economics-textbook_a_21876676/" target="_blank">recently observed</a>, this “supply mantra” works for politicians seeking to connect with voters because “everyone is an economist now and more supply will bring down prices”.
Heaven forbid that anyone might draw attention to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/tackling-housing-unaffordability-a-10-point-national-plan-43628" target="_blank">special features of housing</a> as a commodity. As noted by Ben Phillips, these mean such supply “rules” do not apply; at least not in the simple form applicable to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Aspectacularbackflipwithnotaredfacetobeseen/2005/05/24/1116700714172" target="_blank">bananas</a>.
<hr>
Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-housing-supply-shouldnt-be-the-only-policy-tool-politicians-cling-to-72586" target="_blank">Why housing supply shouldn’t be the only policy tool politicians cling to</a>
<hr>
More importantly, though, governments use their unqualified faith in equitable housing market solutions to get off the hook. It absolves them of the responsibility for playing an active role in managing and shaping these markets to deliver housing that meets everyone’s need for shelter. Instead, they facilitate development for speculation.
<h2>Calls for a policy rethink</h2>
This critique is not exclusive to academics and affordable housing campaigners. It is increasingly coming from other stakeholders, including in the finance industry.
In a <a href="http://www.industrysuperaustralia.com/publications/reports/assisting-housing-affordability-discussion-paper/" target="_blank">recent report</a>, Industry Super Australia (ISA) lamented the “haphazard approach [to housing policy] … across all levels of Australian government … What was a serious problem a decade ago is becoming a crisis after a further ten years of policy gridlock”.
We <a href="https://theconversation.com/mounting-housing-stress-underscores-need-for-expert-council-to-guide-wayward-policymaking-84196" target="_blank">recently advocated</a> for a re-established National Housing Supply Council (NHSC). Echoing this, ISA calls for government to set up “a co-ordinating body to identify the extent of regional shortfalls in [affordable] housing”. This would require “reinstatement of a rigorous housing supply forecasting capacity to underpin effective city and municipal level planning”.
<hr>
Further reading: <a href="https://theconversation.com/mounting-housing-stress-underscores-need-for-expert-council-to-guide-wayward-policymaking-84196" target="_blank">Mounting housing stress underscores need for expert council to guide wayward policymaking</a>
<hr>
As advocated by ISA, the body’s membership and functions would closely mirror those of the NHSC. However, again consistent with our proposals, there would be greater emphasis on the position of renters on low to moderate incomes.
No-one disputes that, with continued population growth nationally and especially in our capital cities, maximising new house-building must be part of the policy mix. But the idea that this can be any kind of silver bullet for unaffordable housing – especially for the lower-income renters who are really doing it tough – is fundamentally flawed. <a href="http://www.industrysuperaustralia.com/publications/reports/assisting-housing-affordability-discussion-paper/" target="_blank">As ISA puts it</a>:
<blockquote>
Simply increasing overall housing stock will not ensure that more assisted [affordable] housing becomes available. Instead, increasing the supply of assisted [affordable] housing specifically is required.
</blockquote>
What is needed above all is “a comprehensive, long-term commitment to addressing the supply of affordable rentals for low to moderate earners”.
Australia sailed directly away from this essential goal with the Abbott government’s 2014 <a href="https://cityfutures.be.unsw.edu.au/news-event/news/defining-action-to-secure-institutionally-financed-affordable-housing/" target="_blank">scrapping of the National Rental Affordability Scheme</a>.
<h2>Moves to repair the damage</h2>
Recent policy moves in Canberra just may have set a course towards repairing the damage.
Treasurer Scott Morrison has backed a <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2017-18/content/glossies/factsheets/html/HA_18.htm" target="_blank">new mechanism</a> to channel low-cost construction finance to community housing providers. The Commonwealth is also starting to pressure the states and territories to develop “<a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2017B00238/Download" target="_blank">credible housing strategies</a>”. This would be in return for ongoing national funding for public housing and homelessness services.
Crucially, such strategies should include state and territory commitments to the robust use of land-use planning systems to hard-wire affordable rental housing supply into the normal private house-building process. This would emulate and build on <a href="http://blogs.unsw.edu.au/cityfutures/blog/2016/11/sydney-needs-higher-affordable-housing-targets/" target="_blank">recent proposals by the Greater Sydney Commission</a>, which the New South Wales government is considering.
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87757/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">For the states and territories, this model could be a major element of “their side of the bargain” in a serious push to secure an enduring affordable housing supply. Only with some form of matching federal “development subsidy”, however, do such strategies stand a chance of making a real difference.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hal-pawson-147969" target="_blank">Hal Pawson</a>, Associate Director - City Futures - Urban Policy and Strategy, City Futures Research Centre, Housing Policy and Practice, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414" target="_blank">UNSW</a>
This article was originally published on <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/facts-sink-glib-housing-supply-mantra-the-focus-must-be-on-affordable-rental-87757" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Facts sink glib housing supply mantra – the focus must be on affordable rental

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Sydney continues to be Australia’s least affordable city for rental accommodation but, of all cities, Melbourne has seen the greatest decline in affordability since 2013, according to the latest Rental Affordability Index (RAI), released November, 2016.
“The latest Rental Affordability Index shows housing stress is a common reality for people in the rental market, especially those on low incomes, who have little left to spend on essentials like food, electricity, fuel and education, after paying rent,” said Andrew Cairns, CEO Community Sector Banking. “People in the lowest income households are being pushed out of the rental market, and into poverty and homelessness - this situation is most dire in Sydney.”
Produced by National Shelter, Community Sector Banking and SGS Economics &amp; Planning, the RAI is an easy to understand indicator of rental affordability relative to household incomes across Australia.
Released biannually, the RAI is intended to complement the Housing Affordability Index (HAI), which is a price index for the purchase of houses.
Adrian Pisarski, Executive Officer of National Shelter, said the index shows “low income households continue to face unaffordable rents and high levels of housing stress despite some improvements in the rental market - additional supply in capitals has not eased rental affordability for low income households”.
“We are most concerned that there is no national strategy to tackle housing affordability, especially when we see that additional supply is not reaching low income households, and increases in homelessness are being reported,” Pisarski said.
Ellen Witte, an Associate at SGS Economics and Planning, said it was also a great concern that “although low and single income households are worst off, even average households would struggle if rents become less affordable”.
“With home ownership falling further out of reach for many households, rental unaffordability is a key issue to address in Australia’s housing equation.
The index shows rental affordability is dividing Australia, with service rich areas tending to be very unaffordable, while service poor areas are more affordable, particularly in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth,” said Witte.
Cairns calls for the nation to wake up to the rental crisis. “There is a dire need for innovative financial models to support more affordable housing and we’re calling on governments, companies and philanthropists to collectively use their power to create sustainable solutions now,” he said.
Greater Sydney continues to be at crisis levels in terms of rental affordability, with an RAI of 108 in the June quarter of 2016.
The average renting household spends near 28 percent of its total income to pay the median rent of $480 per week.
Most inner city areas remain extremely unaffordable and regional NSW also remains the least affordable regional area, despite having improved slightly over past quarters.
Despite seeing the most significant fall in affordability since 2013, Greater Melbourne is Australia’s second most affordable metropolitan area, with a RAI of 126 in the June quarter.
The average renting household spends around 24 percent of total income on rent. However, affordability varies greatly across income groups and areas.
The lowest income households face one of the worst rental affordability situations of all metro areas in Australia.
It’s most dire for non-family, mostly single person, households, which would pay near 110 percent of total income on rent, even after discounting average rents for this group by 25 percent for access to social housing.
Witte notes: “Obviously, this group is pushed beyond the margins of the market. Not surprisingly, we have seen a doubling of people sleeping rough in the streets of Melbourne over the last two years. More affordable areas are likely to have poor access to employment and services, while those close to jobs and services are unaffordable for average income households”.
While rental affordability has continued to improve at a substantial rate in Perth since the end of the mining boom, this trend may not continue in future quarters due to a decline in incomes.
Greater Perth recorded an RAI of 131 in the June quarter, up from 109 two years ago.
The average household would pay 23 percent of total income on rent.
The first two quarters of 2016 recorded the first decline in average household income in the metropolitan area since late 2013, in line with the economic slowdown.
Hobart continues to score poorly in the RAI due to lower incomes and high rental yields, which generate high levels of rental stress.
In particular, rents remain extremely unaffordable for low income households in Greater Hobart, which would spend 50 percent or more of total income on rent.
The average household pays around 27 percent of total income on rent.
While both Brisbane and Adelaide scored reasonably overall in the latest index, there was some volatility.
Median rents fluctuated most significantly in Brisbane, from a high of $409 in March to a low of $397 in June 2016.
The average household renting in Greater Brisbane would pay around 25 percent of total income, while those in Greater Adelaide spend near 27 percent of total income on rent.
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Australia’s rental affordability crisis pushing people into homelessness

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Housing affordability (and rental affordability) in Queensland is not the same issue that it is in the southern states, and so when national media and national organisations talk about “our affordability problems” they are generally referring to Sydney and Melbourne.   
However, this week Anglicare released its snapshot research into rental affordability, looking at more than 7400 properties listed on realestate.com.au on one weekend to create a picture of the city’s affordability.
The snapshot found (among other things) that around 11 percent of advertised rentals (796 listings) would be affordable for a family where two adults worked minimum wage jobs and had two young children.
The snapshot also found that there were very few options for adults, either couples or singles, who were on welfare payments to rent their accommodation without being in financial distress (where more than 30 percent of income was allocated to accommodation).
The REIQ’s concern about this snapshot is that it might not present the most accurate picture, which then affects the conclusions drawn. It is important also to be aware that not all rentals are advertised on realestate.com.au. A significant level of rentals is listed on other prominent portals, and there is also a significant number advertised privately. So the realestate.com.au snapshot is not necessarily the most precise source of information about all rentals in the market at any one time.
Having said that, the REIQ does believe that housing should be affordable for all members of our community and we work closely with a range of organisations in an effort to ensure housing affordability does not fall through the cracks and get neglected as a social issue.
The REIQ forms part of the Housing Affordability Expert Panel, formed by the Minister for Housing and Public Works, Mick de Brenni, and we meet regularly with other similar organisations to offer feedback and information that helps the Minister manage housing affordability in Queensland.
We also work with RentConnect, a Queensland Government department that helps those in lower socioeconomic brackets secure affordable housing. We teach real estate agents how to fairly and properly assess those who apply for rental accommodation and how to help them find the services that will help them finance their rentals.
One of the things we regularly teach consumers is that the listing price, with both rentals and property sales, is always negotiable.  This is the wish-list price and should always be regarded as a starting point only.
The negotiability of these wish-list prices will grow over the next 18 months as the much-written about supply of apartments comes to market. We expect landlords to become more flexible as rents soften and supply continues to grow. This will definitely improve affordability in Brisbane’s rental market.
For more information from the REIQ, <a href="https://www.reiq.com" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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