A wave of investment, renewal and precinct growth continues to shape the northern edge of Macquarie Park, where daily life is supported by a rare combination of university activity, corporate employment, major retail, and expansive green corridors. It’s this convergence of amenity and connectivity underpins the setting for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a>, which has now topped out and is tracking toward completion in mid-2026.

Within this pocket of the precinct, residents move easily between the area’s key anchors. Macquarie Centre, home to more than 360 retailers, fresh food offerings, dining and entertainment, sits at the heart of local convenience and functions as a major transport interchange. The Metro, T1 rail line and extensive bus network place much of Sydney within quick reach, while surrounding arterial links support direct access to neighbouring districts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5829]

Green space remains a defining feature of the immediate environment. Lane Cove National Park stretches along the northern boundary of the precinct, offering bushland trails, cycling routes and quiet riverfront pockets. Shrimptons Creek and the campus grounds of Macquarie University extend these recreational networks, softening the urban setting and creating a daily connection to nature that informs the project’s architectural response.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> have shaped La Vera around these contrasts. The building’s northern elevation adopts an organic, curvilinear form that mirrors the natural topography of the national park. Three sculpted forms soften the tower’s profile and encourage a stronger transition between indoor living areas, balconies and the broader landscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223737]

Cox Director Felipe Miranda says the building’s outlook played a central role in the design process.

“The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park… The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies,” Felipe Miranda of Cox Architecture said.

Toward the city-facing side, the design shifts to a more urban expression. A gridded facade and extensive glazing capture CBD views, creating a dual strategy that blends ecological outlooks with metropolitan orientation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5827]

La Vera delivers 169 residences across one- to four-bedroom layouts, reflecting the needs of young families, downsizers, first-home buyers and investors seeking long-term certainty within a high-amenity location. From the project, residents can walk to Macquarie University, Macquarie Hospital and nearby corporate offices, reach national park trails within minutes, and enjoy retail and dining without relying on a car.

The project is delivered by Urban Property Group, a 4.5-star iCIRT-rated developer-builder with more than three decades of experience. The company has become a leader in adopting 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), first introduced on its Parq Bexley development and now embedded into its pipeline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223727]

La Vera is the first development in Macquarie Park approved to offer this 10-year LDI policy, adding another layer of protection for purchasers and reinforcing the transparency of the construction process.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias says this assurance has become increasingly important for buyers navigating the off-the-plan market.

“Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been… Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share,” Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said.

Urban Property Group's in-house construction team is forecasting a mid-2026 completion, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/home789">HOME789</a> appointed as the project marketer.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

Staff Writer

La Vera delivers a nature-connected address within Macquarie Park’s core

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA</a>&nbsp;doesn’t just rise over North Sydney, it redefines it. Now in its final release, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>’s $1 billion architectural statement is not just complete, but already reshaping the way people live, connect and dine in this rapidly evolving harbourside CBD.

Positioned beside the new Victoria Cross Metro Station and boasting panoramic views across Sydney Harbour, Aura’s 386 residences crown a mixed-use precinct designed with unapologetic ambition. The curvaceous sandstone-inspired form by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, paired with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richard Stanisich</a>’s understated interiors, sets a design tone that’s both monumental and intimate.

At its peak, literally, the two penthouses so spectacular they command their own names; La Davina and Il Magnate. The residents are spread across the&nbsp;entire top floor, offering what many consider the most refined residences ever built in North Sydney. Designed by Richard and Kirsten Stanisich, each four-bedroom home is meticulously crafted to evoke calm, space, and permanence.&nbsp;

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VB70993aG-I?si=adRBlXQliYmYvaSz" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The kitchens are fully wrapped in natural stone, with integrated Gaggenau appliances, Sub-Zero fridges, concealed sculleries, and even a zip hydro tap delivering boiling, chilled and sparkling water on demand. A linear stone fireplace anchors the open-plan living space, dividing lounge and dining zones with quiet sophistication.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292861]

The master suite, meanwhile, feels more like a private retreat, complete with a custom stone makeup vanity, walk-through dressing area, and spa-inspired ensuite with heated stone floors, a freestanding Villeroy &amp; Boch tub, and timber veneer joinery throughout.

Kirsten Stanisich, Director of Richards Stanisich, said the penthouses offer incredible scale reflective of a single residence.&nbsp;

“We sought inspiration for these remarkable residences from the classic top-floor Parisian apartment," Stanisich said.

"We looked at what made these French apartments so elegant and found it really came down to their scale. It was ultimately this generosity of space that we used for the AURA penthouses, where we’ve designed considered rooms with deep large-scale proportions."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=310337]

Everyday living at Aura feels no less elevated. A dedicated 24-hour concierge, Technogym fitness centre, sky dining terraces, and a resort-style pool serve a lifestyle designed to rival luxury hotels.

At street level, Aqualand’s own hospitality arm, Etymon Projects, curates a precinct of LA-style bistros, Japanese fine dining, and local wine bars, all seamlessly integrated into the building’s sculptural podium.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=310337]

This final chapter, aptly dubbed The Finale, is more than a sales phase, it’s an invitation to two of the most exclusive apartments ever to be built in North Sydney.

With limited residences remaining, buyers can access curated incentives including stamp duty rebates, rental guarantees, legal fee coverage, and even $20,000 towards dining within the precinct.

From generous one-bedders to The Icons, two singular penthouses priced well into prestige territory, Aura’s offerings reflect a scale and calibre rarely seen in urban Sydney. And with move-in now immediate, this is no longer a promise of future luxury. It’s happening.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=30959]

Aqualand unveils penthouse collection at AURA By Aqualand in North Sydney

There’s no sign of the development wave that began several years ago slowing along Old Burleigh Road.

Around 10 new apartment developments are either underway or preparing to launch along the 800-metre strip stretching from the southern edge of Surfers Paradise towards the heart of Broadbeach, collectively adding just shy of 1,000 new apartments to the beachfront corridor.

The latest plans propose a further 30 apartments to replace an original six-unit walk-up on a 658 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/20a-old-burleigh-road-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">20A Old Burleigh Road</a>. The 14-storey building has been designed by Ferro Chow Architecture, which recently joined the Elevation Architecture Group.

The developer behind the project is Geoffrey Booth, whose Future Liv In has focused on delivering rental accommodation across regional Australia.

<img alt="Old Burleigh Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="99d393e7-d404-43bc-80cb-6255c39b83d6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2012.28.44%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ZFT8F3mOny4M4ut.kFF3woC9WH9oR5gT" />

The Old Burleigh Road development will comprise 18 two-bedroom apartments, 10 three-bedroom apartments, and a single four-bedroom residence occupying the entirety of level 12. Above, the building will be crowned by a two-storey penthouse with its own private lift, several multi-purpose rooms, and two rooftop terraces — one featuring a puppy lawn and spa, the other offering a private swimming pool, sunset deck, and built-in barbecue.

Resident amenities will be located on the second level and include a pool with adjoining spa, cabana, and pool deck, along with an indoor residents’ lounge featuring a bar and an alfresco barbecue kitchen.

In the architectural statement submitted by Elevation Architecture, the project is referred to as “UMI”, which the firm says has been “inspired by the majestic hinterlands and shaped by the coastal climate”.

“It is an exemplar of how community living can still feel at one with nature, breathable, and deeply connected in place,” the architects noted.

They added that the site benefits from established building separation to adjoining towers, helping to maintain privacy, sunlight, and residential amenity, while still offering direct beach access within an urban setting.

“Drawing inspiration from the Gold Coast hinterlands and the region’s natural landscape, the podium and tower detail highlights the contrasting elements of treetop green and cliff-face peach. The vibrant texture and materiality shaped by time has a richness in depth and character.”

<img alt="Old Burleigh Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b3d6c923-a0ab-4d74-86da-177313447e8e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2012.28.38%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=i2fygmoVQM6hWpbATTAW_yTitoMTrnI1" />

Old Burleigh Road has become a hotspot for developers, with the three-tower Jewel development kickstarting a wave of projects up and down the strip when it was completed in 2020.

Currently under construction and approaching completion is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/faro-broadbeach-123-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">FARO Broadbeach</a> by 5Point and Bottega, 21 large-scale half- and full-floor apartments. 5Point is also behind the recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lumara-108-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Lumara</a>, another 37 apartments to add to the pipeline.

Luxury builder GRAYA is progressing construction on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/enclave-by-graya-118-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Enclave</a>, its first Gold Coast tower, while Polycell remains the most active developer on the street. They are preparing to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sandpiper-broadbeach-155-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Sandpiper</a>, a 50-storey redevelopment of the former Sandpiper Holiday Resort that will deliver around 200 apartments alongside extensive resident amenity. The group also has another 130-apartment project approved nearby, as does <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/dvb-approved-for-second-broadbeach-apartment-development">Dean Gallagher’s DVB Projects</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Old Burleigh Road apartment development wave continues

Sunshine Coast developer Habitat Development Group continues to position itself as one of the region’s largest new apartment developers.

Its latest project is in Maroochydore, where it is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-millwell-2-millwell-road-east-maroochydore-qld-4558">The Millwell</a>. Adjacent to the new 53-hectare Maroochydore City Centre project, Habitat is planning a further 180 apartments on a 3,468 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/132-136-aerodrome-road-maroochydore-qld-4558">132–136 Aerodrome Road</a>. The site was purchased with approval for a smaller 13-storey, 103-unit building.

Habitat will demolish the two existing retail centres, currently home to the Salvation Army Family Store and Neighbours Aid, and replace them with an 18-storey building featuring the significant rooftop amenities that have become a hallmark of Habitat developments in recent years. The rooftop will include both indoor and outdoor spaces, anchored by an infinity swimming pool.

<img alt="Maroochydore" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad434d07-666b-4614-b33e-530ad6a2d261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2010.12.33%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7pyLsPWKQuwv0us3_v.9DmbzEc2VZe9Z" />

There will be a mix of one- to four-bedroom apartments.

The Development Assessment Report, submitted to the Sunshine Coast Council, says the proposal&nbsp;is not speculative, but a response to both zoning intent and demonstrated housing need.

“The proposed development represents an appropriate and logical intensification of the site, consistent with the planning framework and the intended urban outcomes for the locality.”

Across the Sunshine Coast, councils are increasingly scrutinising not just height or yield, but whether new projects genuinely align with the long-term structure plans underpinning growth corridors. The&nbsp;ASTP Planning Report&nbsp;reinforces the approach, noting that the project has been shaped around site responsiveness rather than generic typology.

“The development has been designed to respond to the physical constraints and opportunities of the site, while delivering a high-quality residential outcome that integrates with the existing and emerging urban context.”

<img alt="Habitat" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3a03fc54-4ca5-4868-88d0-eeced70604e2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2010.12.28%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=1pkK3lJrrZjkghTLBReM2zatcas4Nc4B" />

In mid-2025, Habitat, a developer that also builds its own projects, commenced construction on The Millwell, located just over one kilometre from the new proposal. The Millwell will comprise more than 200 apartments across two eight-storey buildings.

Habitat also has two projects on Lake Kawana in Birtinya: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-clair-birtinya-930-931-waterside-retreat-birtinya-qld-4575">St Clair</a>, a 200-unit, two-building development launched last year and set to welcome buyers this year; and Esperance, a 175-apartment project currently progressing through the development approval process.

First look: Habitat continues to bolster Sunshine Coast apartment pipeline with Maroochydore development plans

John Camilleri, the breeder of legendary racehorse Winx, is set to deliver a landmark two-tower beachfront development that would redefine the Surfers Paradise skyline.

Camilleri, who spent around $100 million acquiring development sites across the Gold Coast in 2025, has lodged plans for two new towers on the dress-circle stretch of Garfield Terrace, just two days before Christmas.

In assembling the site, Camilleri's Celestino Developments has effectively acquired the 71 Garfield project by Iris Capital and AALTO by Weiya Holdings, creating an unrivalled <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">4,000 sqm beachfront holding along Garfield Terrace</a>.

The proposal comprises two residential towers of 55 and 48 storeys, linked by a dramatic skybridge which will home “exclusive VIP and wellness amenities.”

In total, the development would deliver 275 two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments across the two towers, rising above a shared landscaped podium that incorporates a central green space and a beachfront swimming pool stretching more than 90 metres.

<img alt="DBI" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="097900f3-6bef-4919-b168-b08f2f762876" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.37.58%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=et0SpmcvaPPVrexI_zWi46BVFtZBxAzx" />

Architecture firm DBI, in documents submitted to Gold Coast City Council, said the project at 63–79 Garfield Terrace would “establish a new benchmark for beachfront residential living on the Gold Coast.”

"The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience. Together, the 48-storey North Tower and 55-storey South Tower form a distinctive twin-tower composition whose dynamic silhouette will make a significant contribution to the Surfers Paradise skyline."

DBI said the architectural language draws inspiration from the fluidity and movement of the coastal landscape.

"Each tower is defined by organic, curving forms and continuous balcony ribbons that wrap the buildings, providing deep shading, enhancing environmental performance, and reinforcing the rhythmic, sculptural expression of the façade. These balcony forms also reduce the apparent mass of the towers while maintaining strong visual continuity from podium to summit. Sculpted reflective downturns run along the western spine of both towers, shifting and lifting as they extend upwards to frame service zones and open eastward to maximise ocean views."

<img alt="Garfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a2a00ce3-a0e9-45d6-b4b5-b7baed592ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DnruWV1dhLrtXOeElwekyd7vPq2gw55t" />

The project’s most striking feature is the skybridge at level 45, which will house executive lounges, formal dining spaces, wellness facilities and panoramic ocean-facing views.

“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI added.

The podium will host an extensive suite of recreational amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a large open green lawn, and the signature 90-metre pool stretching along the beachfront. The pool is divided into lap, lounge and children’s zones.

The southern end of the podium will accommodate additional wellness facilities, including a gymnasium, plunge pools, treatment rooms and a dedicated yoga lawn.

<img alt="Garfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee1b4f25-231f-4804-83b1-a573a1481962" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.55.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zObzIA3D5w7EwqPsHjr2pKrA4vbB28zL" />

There will be 127 apartments in the North Tower and 148 in the South Tower, including multiple penthouses, while the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages will be activated by a series of food and beverage tenancies.

Camilleri emerged as the most active site acquirer on the Gold Coast in 2025. He spent just over $30 million acquiring Pacific Point, a 10-level Surfers Paradise apartment block and an adjoining three-level duplex, from fellow racing identity and Aquis billionaire Tony Fung. Plans are now underway for a 93-apartment, 40-storey tower on the 1,682 sqm site.

He also paid $53.65 million for the 1,500 sqm Garfield Terrace site previously marketed as AALTO by Weiya Holdings, before acquiring the adjoining parcel from hotel billionaire Sam Arnaout’s Iris Capital, the developer behind V&amp;A Broadbeach.

First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge

Rate Cut

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CBA has today cut its one- and two-year fixed rates for owner-occupiers, but bucked the trend by hiking its four-year rate.

Following pressure from rivals Westpac and NAB, CBA has brought its two-year fixed rate to under 2 per cent.

However, the most significant change was the hike to its four-year fixed rate. This is the first big four bank to hike its four-year owner-occupier rate since October 2019 – a sign the bank is pricing in a higher cash rate from 2024.

<img alt="" height="128" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/cba_rates.jpg" width="791">

Sally Tindall, research director at RateCity.com.au, said the cuts to the bank’s four-year fixed rates could be a sign of things to come.

“CBA has bowed to market pressure by cutting its two-year rate to under 2 per cent,” she said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=3490]

“However, the bank is giving with one hand, and taking away with the other, hiking its four-year fixed rate by the same amount for new customers."

“After the last RBA rate in November 2020, all four big banks responded by cutting fixed rates, in particular their four-year rates. Less than five months later, CBA has taken this deal off the table."

“It’s not surprising CBA has decided to raise its four-year fixed loan – the bank is pricing in at least one cash rate hike over this time."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89720]

“Governor Lowe has repeatedly said the first round of cash rate hikes wouldn’t be until at least 2024, but that’s only three years away."

“Someone who fixes their rate for four years today could very well see variable rates go up within that time, provided the economic recovery stays on track."

“Other banks could start hiking their four- and five- year fixed rates in coming months to factor in a potential rate rise in 2024,” she concluded.
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CBA has today cut its one- and two-year fixed rates for owner-occupiers, but bucked the trend by hiking its four-year rate.

jordan_55689

CBA is the first of the Big Four banks to hike rates

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GUEST OBSERVER
Australia saw very strong jobs growth in October. Total employment rose by 58,600, the strongest since March 2012, driven by a 40,000 gain in full time jobs. Employment is up 2.7% on a year ago.
This pushed the unemployment rate down 5.9%, from 6.2% in September.
Jobs growth is very strong in NSW (3.8%yoy) and Victoria (+3%yoy) in contrast to WA which has slowed to +1.1%yoy. As a result unemployment is now falling in NSW (to 5.5%) and Victoria (5.6%) versus WA where unemployment has risen to 6.4%.
Hours worked are also strong at +1.2% month on month or +3.8% year on year.
There is a danger in reading too much into monthly jobs data as it can be quite volatile. For example in May unemployment similarly fell to 5.9% from 6.2% in response to a 50,000 jobs gain only to bounce back in subsequent months. 
Employment growth at 2.7% year on year has now also run well ahead of the growth suggested by leading jobs indicators such as the NAB Employment intentions survey. As a result a pullback in employment could be expected next month and just as we have seen on several occasions over the last year or so, it’s still premature to say we have seen the peak in unemployment.
<a href="/images/2015/11/12/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-12%20at%203.07.50%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/12/Screen%20Shot%202015-11-12%20at%203.07.50%20PM.png" alt="" width="738" height="519">
That said, the ongoing strength in trend employment growth (now running at +19,000 jobs a month) is consistent with the economy continuing to hold up reasonably well helped along by the rebalancing of the economy evident in strong jobs growth in NSW and Victoria. 
As a result a December rate cut is now very unlikely and while I still lean to another rate cut early next year, it’s now a very close call, and we would need to see some softer economic data in the interim.
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Australian jobs market booms, December rate cut unlikely: AMP Capital's Shane Oliver

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GUEST OBSERVER
Wild swings in global stock markets have made investors edgy, the economic news coming out of China is not favourable and domestic private investment has plummeted. On the other hand, US growth surged to 3.7% annually and fears of a debt crisis in the Euro zone have abated. Latest estimates still put inflation at 1.5%, below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band of 2-3%.
The Shadow Board’s confidence that the cash rate should remain at its current level of 2% equals 77% (up from 68% in August). The confidence that a rate cut is appropriate has edged up three percentage points, to 9%; conversely, the confidence that a rate increase, to 2.25% or higher, is called for, has decreased considerably for the third time in a row, from 35% in July and 25% in August to 14%.
Latest figures show that Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 6.3% in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, even though total employment rose by nearly 40,000 in July. Nominal wage growth remains muted at 2.3% and is forecast to remain low in the next quarter.
The Aussie dollar depreciated further against major currencies. It now fetches less than 72 US¢. Yields on Australian 10-year government bonds remain low at 2.71%.
As already pointed out in last month’s statement, the Australian property market appears to be cooling and the local sharemarket is retreating further from its highs earlier this year.
The elephant about to enter the room is the dramatic fall in new private capital expenditure, equalling a sizable 4.0% in the June quarter, bringing the annual decline to 10.5%, the largest drop since the last recession in 1992. The large drop is largely attributable to the contraction of the mining sector; however, firms in other sectors are also planning to cut spending, posing a serious threat to the Australian economy.
The recent gyrations in worldwide stock markets have highlighted the frothiness in global asset prices. To what extent volatility and uncertainty in asset markets spills over into the real economy is, of course, unclear. However, few economists doubt that asset markets are relying on ultra-low interest rates to persist. Concerns about any debt crisis in the Euro zone have waned since the recent 80 billion Euro credit extended to Greece.
As in previous months, the deteriorating outlook for the Chinese economy pose the biggest immediate threat to Australia’s export markets and thus to Australia’s GDP. US growth, on the other hand, has been revised up to 3.7% (annualized) for the second quarter 2015, presenting a dilemma for the Federal Reserve Bank: the strong economic performance suggests an increase in the federal funds rate is around the corner but if volatility in stock markets persists, signalling heightened uncertainty about the future, the Fed may be tempted to postpone the interest rate increase. Commodity prices have continued to fall, with crude oil dipping below $40 a barrel.
Also of concern is the sizable contraction of world trade in the first half of this year. The volume of global trade shrank by 0.5% in the June quarter, while the figures for the March quarter were revised to a 1.5% contraction, indicating that world trade recorded its largest contraction since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Consumer and producer sentiment measures paint a motley picture. The Westpac/Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index jumped from 92.3 in July to 99.5 in August. Business confidence, according to the NAB business survey slumped from 10 in July to 4 in August, at the same time as the AIG manufacturing and services indices, both considered leading economic indicators, recorded notable improvements.
What the Shadow Board believes
The probabilities at longer horizons are as follows: 6 months out, the estimated probability that the cash rate should remain at 2% equals 27% (23% in August). The estimated need for an interest rate increase lies at 65% (73% in August), while the need for a rate decrease is estimated at 8% (4% in August).
A year out, the Shadow Board members’ confidence in a required cash rate increase equals 72% (six percentage down from August), in a required cash rate decrease 9% (7% in August) and in a required hold of the cash rate 18% (up from 15% in August).
<a href="/images/2015/09/01/image-20150828-17468-1o4ret8.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/09/01/image-20150828-17468-1o4ret8.png" alt="">
<a href="/images/2015/09/01/image-20150828-17454-13vh8kh.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/01/image-20150828-17454-13vh8kh.png" alt="">
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<img src="/images/2015/09/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-01%20at%207.25.56%20AM.png" alt="" width="765" height="469">
Comments from Shadow Board members
Mark Crosby, Associate Professor, Melbourne Business School:
“The longer term outlook is still uncertain.”
Recent global gyrations should make the RBA hold rates this month, and with a recovery in equity markets outside of China there seems little reason to cut rates. The longer term outlook is still uncertain, with global trade falls the most recent worrying data in the global economy and far more consequential than falls in Chinese equity markets.
 
Guay Lim, Professorial Fellow, Deputy Director, Melbourne Institute:
“International interest rates are likely to rise.”
International interest rates are likely to rise, as growth and employment in the US appear to be stabilising at normal rates. While Australian asset markets are expected to continue to be volatile, the exchange rate is expected to remain low. Keeping the official rate steady at 2% would help offset some of the negative effects of uncertainty in the international environment on the domestic economy – as well keep the policy rate well above the zero lower bound.
 
James Morley, Professor of Economics and Associate Dean (Research) at UNSW Australia Business School:
“The RBA should not provide a ‘Greenspan put’.”
Given the recent turbulence in financial markets and underlying inflation being at the low end of the target range, the RBA should hold its policy rate steady rather than raise it. But with a stable real economy, an overheated housing market, and a low dollar stimulating the foreign sector, the RBA should not provide a “Greenspan put” by cutting rates in response to the stock market. Instead, it should carefully monitor conditions to determine when it will need to start raising the policy rate back towards its neutral level.
 
Jeffrey Sheen, Professor and Head of Department of Economics, Macquarie University, Editor, The Economic Record, CAMA:
“Monetary policy needs to avoid reversing recent currency falls.”
The current fragility in global stock markets appears to be more of a dash to liquidity than to value. It is likely an over-reaction to expected future interest rate increases, beginning with the federal funds rate perhaps this year. Nevertheless some downward adjustment was probably necessary because the boom in global stock prices generally did not mirror the sluggish recovery in the global real economy.
The trade-weighted Australian dollar has fallen about 15% in the last year, and fortunately has not risen with the recent competitive depreciations across Asia. Monetary policy needs to avoid reversing this contributor to Australia’s improved export competitiveness. In the current volatile financial environment, the RBA should maintain the current cash rate in September, though I have modestly increased the probability of a desirable cut.
Timo Henckel is research associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis at Australian National University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/timo-henckel-990" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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Trouble looms, so rates should hold: Timo Henckel

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The Today show money correspondent Ross Greenwood advised the full 25% rate cut savings was worth $3.34 billion in potential stimulus – money back in the economy.
But not all banks are passing on the full cash rate cut.
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With some $1.33 trillion in home owner and investor home loans, <a href="https://www.9jumpin.com.au/show/today/videos/4207691939001/" target="_blank">Greenwood </a>calculated that on all banks passing the rate cut on in full.
However the Commonwealth Bank is only passing on part of Tuesday's cut in official rates to its home loan customers, but has interestingly also taken the step of raising some deposit interest rates.
The country's biggest bank has lowered its standard variable mortgage rates by 0.20 percentage points to 5.45%.
CBA's group executive for retail banking, Matt Comyn, said the bank had considered the needs of deposit customers as well as borrowers in its decision.
"Lifting the rates for our deposit customers at a time when the cash rate is decreasing recognises the importance of savings income, particularly for retirees and young people."
The CBA move comes after ANZ earlier said it would lower its standard variable home loan rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.38%, effective Friday.
NAB has copied Commonwealth Bank's move to keep some of the Reserve Bank's 0.25 per cent cut to the cash rate. 
NAB will cut its standard variable rate to 5.43 per cent, with its lowest fixed rate at 4.49 per cent for one year and 4.59 per cent for five years. 
 
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