Property Pulse

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Over the 12 months to June 2018, nominal dwelling values fell by - 0.8% while in real terms, considering inflation was up 2.1% over the year, dwelling values have declined by a much greater -2.9%.
Nominal values fell over the past year in Sydney, Perth and Darwin however, in real terms values fell across all capital cities over the past year outside of Hobart and Canberra.
Perth is the only capital city where nominal dwelling values have fallen over the past decade, down -4.6%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/PP%20CL%20AUG%202.JPG" alt="">
 
When the change in values across capital city markets over the past decade is adjusted for inflation, the results look very different to the nominal figures.
Real dwelling values have fallen over the past decade in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin, have barely changed in Canberra and have increased by less than 12% Hobart.
At the same time, there has been a significant increase in real dwelling values in Sydney and Melbourne.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/PP%20CL%20AUG%202-2.JPG" alt="">
This highlights the deterioration in housing affordability in Sydney and Melbourne and the relatively weak housing conditions elsewhere across the country over the past decade.
With the recent declines in values across Sydney and Melbourne and the slowing of growth or continued declines in most other capital cities, Hobart is the only capital city in which real dwelling values remain at their peak.
Perth and Darwin have had the weakest 10 years for value changes and in these two cities real dwelling values were -29.2% and -29.0% lower than their peak respectively.
The declines in real dwelling values are relatively recent in Sydney and Melbourne, with values lower over the past four and two quarters respectively.
Perth has had the largest real value falls and has been falling for the longest period of all capital cities with the peak occurring in December 2006.
Values have been declining in Brisbane since March 2008 yet the real value falls from peak in the city at (-12.5%) is less than half that of the decline in Perth (- 29.2%).
Darwin has had the steepest decline in real dwelling values with a fall of -29.0% over the 21 quarters since March 2013.
In Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values have only started falling over the past 12 months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/PP%20CL%20AUG%202-3.JPG" alt="">
Although dwelling falls have only been moderate so far, the expectation is that values will continue to fall over at least the coming 12 months.
In real terms this will mean larger declines.
As household incomes gradually trend higher and housing prices trend lower, we can expect to see some improvement in housing affordability.
Improved housing affordability doesn’t guarantee a return in value growth, real values have fallen a long way in Perth and Darwin and values are yet to rebound.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/PP%20CL%20AUG%202-4.JPG" alt="">
In previous downturns for Sydney and Melbourne, real value declines have been large and they have taken a long time to eclipse their previous peaks.
After real dwelling values peaked in Sydney in December 2003 they fell by -18.4% to December 2008 and didn’t eclipse their previous peak until June 2014.
In Melbourne, real dwelling values peaked in June 1989 and fell by - 24.3% to December 1995 and didn’t eclipse their June 1989 peak until September 1999.
Value declines in the two largest cities are a relatively new occurrence and given it is occurring from a back-drop of significant increases over recent years it could be many years before we see real dwelling values returning to their previous peak.
Especially when other external factors are considered such as tightened credit accessibility, potentially higher mortgage rates and historic low rental returns as well as the potential for changes to the tax treatment of investment housing.
Cameron Kusher is a property research analyst for CoreLogic
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Larger dwelling value falls are coming: Cameron Kusher 

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My findings reveal that while capital city dwelling values may well be falling, the market is responding with fewer new listings.
However, total listings remain elevated compared to other recent years when housing conditions were much stronger.
For this analysis, I researched listings across each of the past seven years.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/27/Listings%20DCs.JPG" alt="">
The x-axis represents the time of year and the y-axis shows the number of properties listed for sale.
This representation of the data allows for a comparison of where listings are at any point in time to the corresponding time in other years.
Another point of note is that the listings data tends to be highly seasonal.
Listings fall dramatically during Christmas and New Year and then pick up through autumn.
They then tend to fall during the Winter and rise substantially coming into Spring, then remain elevated until late in the year.
Listings across the combined capital cities over the 28 days to 22 July 2018 saw 21,849 new properties listed for sale and 108,436 total properties listed for sale.
The number of new listings were -6.7% lower than the previous year and total listings were 7.2% higher.
New listings are lower than they’ve been at this time of year, any year since 2012.
Total listings are higher than they’ve been at this time of year since 2012.
Melbourne (pictured below) – Over the past 28 days there were 6,821 new properties listed for sale and 30,029 total properties for sale. Compared to a year ago new listings are -4.8% lower and tracking at the lowest level for this time of year since 2014. Total listings are 10.5% higher than a year ago and are also the highest they’ve been since 2014.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/27/Listings%20Sydney.JPG" alt="">
Adelaide – Over the past 28 days there were 1,646 new properties listed for sale and 7,798 total properties listed for sale. New listings are -8.5% lower than a year ago and the lowest they’ve been at this time of year any year since 2012. Total listings are -2.8% lower than they were a year ago and the lowest they’ve been at this time of year since 2014.
Perth – With 3,007 newly listed properties over the past 28 days, new listings are -1.0% lower than a year ago and haven’t been this low since 2012. Total listings are somewhat different with 20,618 listings which is 1.7% higher than last year but lower than 2016 and higher than every other year since 2012.
Sydney (pictured below) – There were 5,601 new properties listed for sale over the past 28 days which was -13.1% fewer than a year ago but slightly higher than the number in 2016. There were 26,103 total properties listed for sale which was 21.7% higher than last year and the most for sale since this time in 2012 when CoreLogic was tracking 29,366 properties on the market.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/27/Listings%20Melbourne.JPG" alt="">
Hobart – Over the past 28 days there were 344 new and 951 total properties listed for sale. The 344 new listings was up 8.5% on a year ago and the highest at this time of year since 2013. The 951 total properties listed for sale is -23.6% lower than a year ago and sitting at an historic low level.
Darwin – There were 176 new properties listed for sale and 1,446 total properties for sale over the past 28 days. New listings are -3.3% lower than a year ago and while they are slightly higher than in 2016 they are lower than every other year since 2012. Total listings are -11.8% lower than a year ago and are lower than they have been over each of the past 3 years.
Canberra – Over the past 28 days there were 465 new properties listed for sale which was -18.4% fewer than a year ago and the lowest number of new listings at this time of year since 2016. There were 1,753 total properties listed for sale which was -4.9% lower than a year ago and the lowest at this time of year compared to each year since 2012, except for 2016.
Brisbane (pictured below) – The 3,789 new properties listed for sale is - 3.2% lower than a year ago and the fewest new listings since this time of year in 2012. There are 19,738 total properties listed for sale which is 1.2% higher than a year ago and the highest at this time of year since 2012.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/27/Listings%20Brisbande.JPG" alt="">
Across most capital cities the number of new listings is lower than they were a year ago, this is likely a response to reduced demand for housing currently, as a result potential vendors are holding off bringing stock to market.
At the same time, in softer markets such as Sydney and Melbourne, total listings are much higher than over recent years highlighting that although fewer new listings are entering the market the stock that is for sale is proving more difficult to sell.
The real litmus test for the housing market will be what happens in Spring, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. If, as usually occurs, new listings ramp-up and a lot more stock becomes available for sale this could create further downwards pressure on values. Don’t be surprised though if with tightened credit and an already weakening housing market that Spring this year is a lot more muted than what we’ve seen over recent years.
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New property listings shrinking in response to market weakness in capital cities: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While overall regional housing markets have recorded greater value growth over the past year (+2.2%) than the combined capital cities (-1.6%), value growth in regional markets is slowing.
This is particularly apparent across some of the more populous coastal markets of NSW. In this week’s Pulse we look at the change in dwelling values over time across the major coastal housing markets outside of the capital cities and provide an update on how they are tracking.
Although dwelling values in across the Illawarra region of NSW increased by 1.4% over the past three months, values have risen by just 1.1% over the past year.  The 1.1% annual increase in values is substantially lower than the 17.6% increase a year ago.  In fact, the annual growth rate over the most recent 12 month period is the slowest since April 2013.  The Illawarra market is showing a similar slowing trend to that which has been experienced in Sydney and values are already -0.3% lower than their September 2017 peak.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg1.jpg" alt="Illawarra" width="727" height="301">
Dwelling values on the Mid North Coast of NSW, which stretches from the Great Lakes region north to Nambucca, have increased by 0.9% over the past three months and are 2.0% higher over the past year.  The 2.0% annual rise in values is much lower than the 9.6% increase a year ago and the slowest annual rate of growth since August 2013.  Although values are still increasing, the growth trend is clearly softening.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg2.jpg" alt="Mid North Coast" width="729" height="292">
The accompanying chart highlights that there is a rapid deceleration in growth occurring in the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie region of NSW.  Over the past quarter, values have increased by 0.1% and they are 4.1% higher over the past year.  Like other regions of NSW, the slowdown in value growth over the past year has been substantial; a year ago the annual growth rate was tracking 15.0%.  Dwelling values in the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region are currently -0.3% lower than their April 2018 peak.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg3.jpg" alt="Macquarie" width="727" height="307">
Although Richmond-Tweed is in NSW, it tends to be more closely linked with the performance of the adjoining Gold Coast housing market.  Values are still increasing, up 0.2% over the quarter and 1.6% higher over the year however, growth has slowed markedly from an 11.5% annual increase a year ago.  The annual rate of growth has bounced slightly higher lately due to a moderate pick-up in value growth over the past quarter.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg4.jpg" alt="Richmond - Tweed" width="734" height="295">
Geelong in Vic has seen the most rapid growth in values of all regional markets in the country over the past year.  Over the period, values have increased by 11.0% and the rate of growth is slightly higher than the 10.7% increase a year ago. It is interesting to note that the quarterly rate of growth in values has slowed over the past three months; while the pace of capital gains remains rapid, there are some early signs that growth conditions are starting to moderate.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg5.jpg" alt="Geelong" width="728" height="291">
The Cairns housing market has seen very little growth in dwelling values of late.  In fact, over the past decade, values have fallen by -5.4% and the market remains -9.2% lower than the January 2008 peak.  Over the past three months, values have fallen by -0.6% and over the past year they are -1.0% lower.  12 months ago, Cairns dwelling values had increased by 0.8% indicating that overall housing market conditions have recorded a subtle slowdown over the past year.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg6.jpg" alt="Cairns" width="722" height="295">
Gold Coast’s housing market has seen value growth slow significantly over the past 12 months.  A year ago, values were rising at the annual pace of 6.5% while over the past year, values have increased by only 1.4%, their slowest annual rate of growth since May 2013.  Values are -0.1% lower over the quarter and were -0.4% lower over the past month.   Although recent growth has not been at the heights seen in regional NSW housing markets and Sydney and Melbourne, the annual rate of value growth peaked at 7.1% in December 2015.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg7.jpg" alt="Gold Coast" width="725" height="295">
The Sunshine Coast is the strongest housing market in Qld for value growth with values rising by 1.1% over the past three months to be 5.5% higher over the past year.  Although values were 5.5% higher over the year, this was a slight slowdown on the 5.9% increase in values over the previous year.  Although values are continuing to climb, it is occurring against a back-drop of quite weak growth over the past decade with values only 12.9% higher over the period.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg8.jpg" alt="Sunshine Coast" width="731" height="298">
The Townsville housing market has been very weak over recent years.  Over the past decade, values have fallen by a total of -26.9% and they are currently -29.8% lower than they were at their most recent peak in December 2007.  The rate of decline in the market has steadied recently with values -0.6% lower over the past three months and -5.5% lower over the past year.  Although the declines are showing signs of steadying, the annual change in values has fallen from no change a year ago.  Once this market does eventually begin to see growth again, it will likely take a long time for values to return to their previous peak levels.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg9.jpg" alt="Townsville" width="729" height="294">
The Wide Bay region of Qld which includes, Bundaberg, Maryborough, Gympie and Hervey Bay has seen values increase by just 0.3% over the past year.  Like many of the Qld regions listed, values have fallen over the past decade, down 14.2% and they are currently -14.6% lower than their May 2008 peak.  Over recent years, the market has been fairly flat however, the rate of annual growth has slowed from 1.6% a year ago.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-26-pulseimg10.jpg" alt="Wide Bay" width="727" height="294">
 The regions highlighted are many of the most populous regional housing markets and in most instances the rate of value growth, much like we’re seeing in major capital cities, is slowing.  The expectation is that regional markets as a whole will continue to outperform capital cities but we would expect that the rate of growth will continue to ease.  Some of the coastal markets such as Geelong and Sunshine Coast are expected to see values continue to rise while the expectation is that the major coastal markets in NSW will continue to see value growth slow.     This is anticipated slowdown is due to a number of factors.  While tighter credit conditions are having the most visible impact on Sydney and Melbourne, the effect is national, with prospective borrowers facing stricter lending policies.  
Satellite cities such adjacent to Sydney and Melbourne have benefitted from a ripple of demand – with migration away from NSW accelerating and housing prices in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie and Illawarra relatively expensive, the ripple of demand into Sydney’s surrounding areas may be dissipating.  
Conversely, Victoria continues to see rapid pop growth from both overseas and interstate which is likely fueling a continued spillover of demand into the cities peripheral to Melbourne.  
Sea change is likely being boosted by the wealth effect and strong equity from Sydney and Melbourne home owners, as values decline in these cities and credit conditions remain tight, it may be that demand for holiday homes and lifestyle properties starts to ease.
Cameron Kusher is a property research analyst for CoreLogic
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Is value growth slowing in regional coastal markets? Cameron Kusher

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The Reserve Bank (RBA) released the minutes of its September board meeting earlier this week. At the meeting, the last for Governor Glenn Stevens, the RBA board decided to keep official interest rates on hold at 1.5 percent.
The minutes included quite a lot of commentary around the housing market which follows.
‘Conditions in established housing markets had generally eased over 2016. Growth in housing prices had declined at the national level and across most capital cities over the past year, although there remained considerable variation by location. Housing prices had been declining in year-ended terms in Perth for some time. In the rental market, inflation had remained around historical lows and had also eased across most capital cities, most notably in Perth, where rents had continued to decline. The aggregate rental vacancy rate had drifted higher and was close to its long-run average.’
‘Other indicators for the housing market had also generally pointed to weaker conditions than a year earlier. In the established housing market, the number of auctions had declined and remained lower than a year earlier, even though auction clearance rates had increased of late (particularly in Sydney). In the private treaty market – where, nationally, over 80 per cent of transactions occur – turnover had also declined since the previous year and the average number of days that a property was on the market had been on an upward trend. Members noted that sales of new properties were included in the turnover data, but that there might be measurement problems related to the long lag between purchasing and settling new properties bought off the plan, which could lead to revisions. Finally, in recent months the value of housing loan approvals had been broadly steady and housing credit growth had been lower than a year earlier, consistent with the earlier tightening in lending standards and low turnover.’
While the commentary is accurate, the recent strength in auction clearance rates, ongoing growth in home values, a rebound in dwelling approvals and lack of new stock entering the market for sale will likely pique the RBA’s attention.
<a href="/images/2016/09/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-22%20at%2010.54.50%20AM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-22%20at%2010.54.50%20AM.jpg" alt="">
There were 2,062 capital city auctions over the week ending September 11 with CoreLogic collecting results for 1,882 of these auctions or just over 91% of all auctions. The final clearance rate was recorded at 75.4 percent, down from 77.1 percent across 1,899 auctions the previous week. Last week in Melbourne, there were 974 auctions compared to 830 auctions the previous week.
Last week’s auction clearance rate was recorded at 78.3% which was marginally lower than the 79.3% the previous week. In Sydney, the auction clearance rate was recorded at 80.6% last week which was virtually on par with the 80.7 percent recorded over the previous week.
Sydney recorded a similar number of auctions last week (758) compared to the previous week (747). Auction clearance rates were also lower over the week in most of the other capital cities. In Melbourne, auction clearance rates have now been above 75 percent for 5 consecutive weeks and they have been above that level in Sydney for 7 weeks.
Number of homes for sale
<img src="/images/2016/09/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-22%20at%2010.55.05%20AM.jpg" alt="">
Over the past 28 days, there were 43,999 newly advertised properties for sale nationally which was -1.7% lower than a year ago and 230,683 total listings which was -1.5% lower than a year ago.
Newly advertised listings were also lower over the year across the combined capital cities (-3.6%) however, total listings were noticeably higher (+4.1%). The only capital cities in which new listings were higher over the year were: Brisbane (+2.0%), Perth (+16.3%) and Canberra (+14.4%).
<img src="/images/2016/09/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-22%20at%2010.55.13%20AM.jpg" alt="">
In terms of total stock available for sale, the only capital cities in which there were fewer listings than a year ago were: Sydney (-2.4 percent), Hobart (-26.6 percent) and Canberra (-5.1 percent). Nationally, the number of newly advertised properties for sale is at its highest level in 15 weeks and total listings are at their highest level in 9 weeks.
A lack of new stock available for sale in Sydney in particular appears to be creating market urgency and has driven a rebound in home value growth along with surging auction clearance rates.
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