Builder-developer Urban Property Group (UPG) is continuing to expand into new markets. UPG is heading to the Hills District, where it is planning a 40-storey mixed use building near Castle Hill Metro Station.

They've gone down the favoured developer route of a State Significant Development Application, which should see developments approved within the space of nine months.

The tower will comprise 371 apartments, 42 of which will be affordable housing, above a ground-floor retail precinct at 16-20 Old Castle Hill Road, on the corner of Garthowen Crescent and within walking distance of Castle Hill Metro Station, an area identified for higher density under both local and state strategic planning frameworks.

Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/studiosc">Studio SC</a>, the tower would rise from a brick podium base, accommodating one retail tenancy and communal open space, before transitioning to a slender glazed residential form above. Six basement levels are proposed beneath the building to house parking and services.

<img alt="First Look: Urban Property unveils 40-storey mixed-use tower in Castle Hill with 371 homes and affordable housing component" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="08dc82f9-b826-4e18-8c60-4c90f7472317" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%20G%20%28b%29%20-%20Ground%20level%20render.jpg?VersionId=EOv1ly45k_Bc1F73C0hdwXSG4FVSTETt" />

“Castle Hill is undergoing a significant transformation, evolving from a traditionally low-rise suburban centre into a true metropolitan destination anchored by the Sydney Metro Northwest," the Architectural Design Report prepared by Studio SC noted.

The majority of apartments (194) will be two-bedrooms. 90 one-bedroom apartments are planned, 83 three-beds, and four four-bedroom apartments.

Studio SC’s design adopts a podium-and-tower composition, with warm-toned masonry at the lower levels intended to anchor the building within its streetscape context.

"At the podium, the architecture is anchored through solid brickwork in warm, earthy tones, reflecting the local sandstone formations and the natural colour palette of the surrounding hills," Studio SC added.

Above, the tower transitions to a lighter glass expression, articulated with fins and tonal variation to reduce visual bulk and respond to changing light conditions.

<img alt="First Look: Urban Property unveils 40-storey mixed-use tower in Castle Hill with 371 homes and affordable housing component" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f13cb2ee-ebfc-4204-9aba-e2dbd9e5d4bd" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Appendix%20G%20%28a%29%20-%20Pool%20view.jpg?VersionId=Dnpusa.b5d6Nkx2clPlzWosDdh_1QW2V" />

Urban Property Group is one of Sydney's most active developers. They have projects currently under construction in Little Bay, Penrith, and Macquarie Park, with future projects earmarked for Wollongong.

Castle Hill has been one of the most popular suburbs for development across Sydney in the last five years, as developers scramble for land around the newly extended Sydney Metro.&nbsp;

Kassis Homes kicked it all off with Grand Reve, along with Deicorp who has delivered over 1,000 apartments in the area and continues to develop. The likes of Dubai-backed developer Arada will take to market their project in the coming months, while Masscon has just launched Avenue on Cadman Crescent.

Joel Robinson

First Look: Urban Property Group unveils 40-storey mixed-use tower in Castle Hill

One of the Gold Coast’s ‘bridesmaid suburbs’ is experiencing a wave of local suitors, with the latest sales figures from <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/harbour-shores-biggera-waters-564-oxley-drive-biggera-waters-qld-4216">Harbour Shores</a> revealing over two thirds of buyers will be relocating from within a 5km average radius of the 16-hectare masterplan.&nbsp;

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/lewis-land-group">Lewis Land</a> Head of Development Michael Long said the figures underlined a powerful shift for Biggera Waters that would reshape it into a thriving force behind the region’s growth corridor.&nbsp;

“We’ve seen a huge wave of interest from residents of Arundel, Paradise Point and Runaway Bay who recognise the urban transformation that is well underway here and want to be part of it,” Long said.&nbsp;

“Interestingly, 25 per cent of our Gold Coast buyers are also coming from the city’s southern hotspots, including Burleigh and Palm Beach.&nbsp;

“<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/biggera-waters-qld-4216">Biggera Waters</a>, and Harbour Shores in particular, has all the advantages of waterfront living with the benefits of resort-style amenity, for greater value than the southern beachfront suburbs.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=290031]

Long said half of the purchasers at Harbour Shores were under the age of 55.&nbsp;

“When locals choose to stay local, it creates a genuine community, turning the most sustainable master planned community in the Gold Coast’s history into a diverse and vibrant ‘village of villages’.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=336743]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a> Gold Coast Sales Director David Higgins said the hyper-local market demand was unique to Harbour Shores when compared to other projects in the region.&nbsp;

“We are seeing as much as 60 per cent of new apartment sales on other projects go to interstate or international buyers, but Harbour Shores is bucking this trend and attracting a larger proportion of the local market,” Higgins said.&nbsp;

“Only 13 per cent of Harbour Shores’ existing purchasers are interstate. There has been a resounding endorsement from local buyers and that validates the project’s vision and investment in design, lifestyle and liveability.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=113271 project_image_fid=4579]

Harbour Shores is 16ha visionary masterplan dedicated to wellness and an active, healthy lifestyle. Designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>, Harbour Shores embeds extensive green connections and more than 2.5km in pedestrian networks – including a 1.2km boardwalk along the water’s edge.

Harbour Shores was recently recognised by the BETTER FUTURE World Design Awards 2026 as a silver winner in the category of environmental sustainability. Boasting a 6 Star Green Star Communities V1.1 rating, Harbour Shores will deliver more than 2,000 homes over the next ten years.&nbsp;

The first stage will deliver three residential collections including luxury three and four-bedroom waterfront villas at The Residences, as well as apartments in The Waterline and Palm House, surrounded by resort-style amenities.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=113271]

Biggera Waters no longer a 'bridesmaid suburb' as Gold Coast locals jump to Harbour Shores

Developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/ellipse-property-group">Ellipse Property</a> has officially launched Lily Lane, the second stage of its Carrington Place masterplan in Sydney’s North-West. The new stage will deliver over 200 apartments to the sought-after Hills District, supported by new retail and resident amenity.&nbsp;

Located near the Hills Showground Metro Station at 32 Carrington Road, Castle Hill, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lily-lane-at-carrington-place-castle-hill-32-carrington-road-castle-hill-nsw-2154">Lily Lane</a> has launched with the release of 105 apartments.

Designed by award-winning architects <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/ptw">PTW</a>, Lily Lane comprises a combined total of 213 units over two 12-storey towers anchored by a ground-floor retail offering. A range of floorplan configurations are available including 67 one-bedroom, 100 two-bedroom and 46 three-bedroom apartments.

One-bedroom apartments are sized from 50-72 sqm with prices starting at $720,000, while two-bedrooms are priced from $960,000 with sizes ranging from 75 to 132 sqm. The three-bedroom floorplans are sized between 97 and 182 sqm, with prices starting at $1,350,000.&nbsp;

Six exclusive penthouses crown the Lily Lane towers, offering opulent interiors of up to 285 sqm. They are priced from $2.9 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360285]

Blake Schulze, National Director – Residential at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/colliers">Colliers</a>, says Lily Lane builds on the sell-out success of Carrington Place’s first stage, Atrium.&nbsp;

“Lily Lane offers everything north-west buyers are seeking - including spacious, flexible floorplans with premium finishes and sweeping views of the Hills District to the north," Schulze said.

"Its central location brings residents even closer to Hills Showground Metro Station, with retail, dining, recreation and essential services at their fingertips.

Schulze says early enquiries reflect pent-up demand for Lily Lane’s three-bedroom and penthouse apartments, reinforcing the appetite for house-sized units in <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/castle-hill-nsw-2154">Castle Hill</a>,&nbsp;especially among downsizers.

Lily Lane has sought to incorporate features that are more&nbsp;traditional in freestanding homes. Over 75 per cent of residences include dedicated studies, multipurpose rooms or family rooms, with select layouts offering walk-in pantries and laundries.

Buyers have two interior colour schemes to choose from. ‘Breeze’ is a light-toned palette with warm timber accents, and ‘Dawn’ is a cooler mid-toned colourway.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360572]

Apartments also feature premium Miele appliances, including ovens, washing machines, dryers, gas cooktops and dishwashers. Larger homes offer integrated Miele microwaves, Fisher &amp; Paykel integrated refrigerators and five-burner Miele cooktops.

Lily Lane’s ‘village-style’ architectural design is designed to maximise walkability and access to green space. Its two elegant towers are separated by a central landscaped laneway lined with lily plants, giving the project its name.&nbsp;

The towers will be crowned by rooftop terraces with BBQ areas offering views of the Hills District. Residents can also access a shared community room, complete with a fully equipped kitchen.

“As the gateway to the wider Carrington Place masterplan, this new stage delivers a premium experience,"&nbsp;said Puja Khanna, Associate Director – Design, Marketing and Sales at Ellipse Property.

"It features beautifully curated landscaping, refined interiors and architecture designed to maximise space, light and views. With a supermarket and essential services just minutes away, the addition of Lily Lane’s ground-floor retail will elevate everyday convenience and deliver a vibrant precinct for residents.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151821 project_image_fid=360286]

Lily Lane will be constructed by award-winning iCIRT-rated builder Decode Group, with construction to commence in mid-2026 and expected to complete early 2029.

Carrington Place comprises more than 800 apartments and is being delivered across multiple stages. Completion of the masterplan is expected in 2032. Integrated with neighbouring bushland, the project will feature over 20,000 square metres of outdoor recreational area, including a one-kilometre boardwalk to the nearby Fred Caterson Reserve.&nbsp;

The Hills Showground Metro Station is just a two-minute walk away, offering fast connectivity to Sydney’s CBD, North Sydney, Chatswood, Macquarie Park and Norwest Business Park.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151821]

Ellipse launches Lily Lane, stage two of Carrington Place

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/one-global-capital">One Global Capital</a>, a Sydney-based global property development and investment firm, is set to transform a 1.4-hectare site in Five Dock into a $1.5 billion mixed-use precinct.

The integrated precinct is planned to include 750 apartments across five residential towers, a 150-key hotel, around 10,000 sqm of retail and lifestyle space, as well as health and wellness facilities, extensive landscaped open space, and community amenities.

Planning approval submission is targeted for June 2026.

One Global Capital Founder Iwan Sunito told Apartments.com.au that the Five Dock site, which he has owned for over two decades, is one of the best he's ever had.

"I probably hadn't appreciated the uniqueness of the site until more recently when putting together the concept plans," Sunito says.

"The proximity to the water, and the golf course opposite, is unlike any other part of Parramatta Road. We have a unique position and view corridors over the water that makes this one of the best sites I've worked on."

<img alt="Urban renewal in Five Dock via mixed-use precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="76667592-c421-49f5-9ab8-45cfec815651" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Five%20Dock%201.png?VersionId=puhL_lSxd5IB5VA9fQKPsKHgmkinuwuI" />

Sunito said he wants to create a "city within a city", designing a multi-cultural precinct with the convenience of retail and public space at the forefront.

"We want to create a development that's not only to be seen, but to be experienced by the whole local community."

He adds that the Five Dock is emerging into a "really solid suburb", with the growth in&nbsp;the area continuing to be supported by rising residential values across the Canada Bay and Leichhardt local government areas, driven by major infrastructure investment and enhanced transport connectivity.&nbsp;

The new precinct will benefit from close proximity to a key transport network, including the Five Dock Metro Station, located approximately 1.1 kilometres from the site. The new Burwood Metro stop will be just 800m.

The project marks a renewed collaboration between Sunito and internationally acclaimed architect <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/koichi-takada-architects">Koichi Takada</a>, the creative partnership behind some of Sydney’s most recognisable residential landmarks, &nbsp;including Infinity, Arc, and Skye North Sydney.&nbsp;

<img alt="Urban renewal in Five Dock via mixed-use precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a9184a45-f429-4628-87ce-9bd6c70cb597" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Five%20Dock%202.png?VersionId=zJZRfLAZCkpww5VcmR_wgRXjoaSgPSyv" />

“The concept for this development is born from our design approach to naturalising architecture," Koichi Takada said.

"The public realm benefits from biophilic design that integrates generous landscaping, and the development is optimised &nbsp;for natural daylight, airflow and water views to foster wellbeing, sustainability and spaces that foster community interaction."

A key feature of the mixed-use development will be a lifestyle retail precinct, offering shopping and dining &nbsp;experiences - including a proposed state-of-the-art car showroom - as well as communal spaces for community &nbsp;use. Veteran retail and commercial property practitioner, Simon McTigue, has been engaged to consult on the &nbsp;delivery and leasing of the retail precinct, having previously worked on notable mixed-use projects such as East &nbsp;Village Shopping Centre in Zetland and South Village Shopping Centre Kirrawee, as well as other projects with &nbsp;Iwan Sunito in Green Square and Parramatta, to name a few.&nbsp;

“The Five Dock site offers a unique opportunity for retailers, conveniently located within easy walking distance &nbsp;of the metro station. On completion, the integrated precinct will provide the community with a new Inner West &nbsp;town centre, offering daily convenience via a proposed large format supermarket and fresh food precinct, as well &nbsp;as a restaurant and café district situated alongside key services such as a medical and health centre. It will be a &nbsp;place to live, work and play,” said Simon McTigue, Director of Wallaringa Consulting.&nbsp;

Samuel Sunito, Director of Capital at One Global Capital, confirmed strong inbound interest from both domestic and global investors seeking co-investment opportunities in the project. “We are currently engaging with &nbsp;investors both locally but also globally from Indonesia, the United States, China, Singapore, Vietnam, and Dubai &nbsp;to ensure alignment of vision and long-term value creation,” he said.&nbsp;

Investment participation will remain open until approximately Q2 2026, with equity allocations managed selectively.&nbsp;

“Equity available to the broader market will be limited, with priority given to long-standing capital partners. In terms of One Global Capital’s investment philosophy, we will continue to retain majority ownership, ensuring &nbsp;strong alignment of interests and preserving the long-term integrity of the project for all stakeholders,” Samuel &nbsp;said.

"A city within a city": Iwan Sunito flags $1.5 billion mixed-use precinct in Five Dock

Holiday home buyers who have long gravitated to Queenstown’s alpine setting are increasingly looking for low-maintenance apartments that allow them to lock up and leave, while still generating income when they’re away.

For Wendy, who had spent years visiting the Queenstown and Arrowtown region, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>’s Mountain Oak Apartments provided the opportunity to formalise what had previously been a recurring holiday pattern.

“We always had Queenstown in the back of our minds to buy something there as a holiday home,” she says. “We love the Queenstown and Arrowtown area.”

<img alt="From slopes to markets: Mountain Oak connects residents to the best of Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/658d4f_48c3ec1ae5df4a2cab7d23c07c7f51b3~mv2.jpg?VersionId=27K8oQ4ExDN8Yu70VHDa9Olq59XU36m3" />

Time spent visiting her sister-in-law, who owns in Arrowtown, along with regular stays at Millbrook Resort, had already shaped a strong personal connection to the region.&nbsp;

Rather than approaching the purchase purely as an investment play, Wendy’s starting point was lifestyle.

“We were more thinking about ourselves and where we could stay, and then the rental aspect was second.”

Mountain Oak Apartments, located within the masterplanned Remarkables Park precinct in Frankton, aligned with that thinking. The ability to secure the apartment with a deposit and settle on completion made the timing work.

“The fact that we could put a deposit down with the balance on completion was a bonus for us,” she explains.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Livingv2_WEB.jpg?VersionId=nV229fM0ZeYpoxOrX372HyGjfwY_LR8c" />

Wendy selected a two-bedroom, two-bathroom penthouse, a configuration that supports both private use and guest flexibility.

“The two-bedroom, two-bathroom configuration appealed from both a rental viewpoint and for the ability to have friends stay while we are there,” she says.

Across the development, two-bedroom apartments range from 64sqm to 78sqm, with two-bedroom plus flexi options from 71sqm to 75sqm, each with an allocated car park. The flexi layouts introduce an additional space suited to work or hobbies, reflecting demand from buyers who split their time between leisure and remote work.

Apartments include underfloor heating in bathrooms, heat pumps to living areas, and joinery positioned to maximise natural light and mountain outlooks. The Remarkables Park precinct is known for its extended winter sunshine hours, water frontage and open views toward The Remarkables.&nbsp;

Units come in light and dark interior colour schemes.

<img alt="Mountain Oak Apartments draws holiday home buyers to Queenstown" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fd685a22-3b95-43a1-87cb-48fdd42bb4ba" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/658d4f_f9f89107c2704ebbbe5a6b36da508cb3~mv2.jpg?VersionId=MigFIEm6b.mrANANwxSmwHvC4RdJUuyR" />

While lifestyle was the primary driver, the fundamentals of the Queenstown market added reassurance.&nbsp;

“Proximity to the airport and tourism being the main attraction all year round,” Wendy says, when asked what stood out from an investment perspective.

Mountain Oak sits just eight kilometres from Queenstown’s CBD and around a two-minute drive from Queenstown Airport.&nbsp;

For Wendy, that airport proximity carries practical value.

“The airport proximity is a bonus, we think that being so close will be an attraction for the convenience side.”

Residents are also a short drive from Coronet Peak, Jack’s Point Golf Course, New World Supermarket, Five Mile Shopping Centre, and the dining, medical, gym, cinema and library amenities within the town centre, as well as the seasonal Remarkables Market.

Importantly, the purchase does not lock owners into a single use. Mountain Oak offers the flexibility to opt for short-term visitor accommodation or longer-term residential rental management, with 365-day visitor accommodation consent in place. Owners can utilise Safari Group’s 24/7 on-site management service or appoint their own provider, and do not need to decide on a strategy immediately.

“It was a bonus that we can rent it out as well as use it for ourselves,” she says.

Additional buying options, including furniture packages and storage units available for purchase within the building, further support a lock-and-leave model suited to interstate and overseas owners.

<img alt="Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments brings new investment potential to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Mountain Oak Apartments comprises 141 residences, ranging from one-bedroom configurations through to larger apartments and penthouses. One-bedroom apartments are currently priced from NZ$639,000, with three-bedroom options from NZ$1,299,000.

With 365-day visitor accommodation consent, the development is structured to respond to Queenstown’s established four-season tourism economy, spanning winter ski traffic and summer hiking, cycling, golf and lake-based activity.

Although Wendy acknowledges the strength of rental demand, her approach remains long term.

“We’re not planning to sell it anytime soon, so we are keen to hang on to it, but the passive income will be a bonus.”

Confidence in the developer also influenced her decision. Before proceeding, Wendy sought feedback within the local building community.

“We asked around and Safari Group had a good reputation,” she says.

Safari Group has delivered more than 2,000 hotel units and residential apartments across over 18 developments nationwide, with more than 25 years’ experience in the sector.

With completion anticipated by mid-2027, Mountain Oak is attracting a cross-section of buyers, from yield-focused investors to lifestyle purchasers seeking a foothold in one of New Zealand’s most tightly held alpine markets.

For Wendy, it represents both a future holiday base and a long-term asset within Queenstown’s year-round tourism economy.

How Mountain Oak Apartments draws holiday home buyers to Queenstown

Property Pulse

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Over the 12 months to June 2018, nominal dwelling values fell by - 0.8% while in real terms, considering inflation was up 2.1% over the year, dwelling values have declined by a much greater -2.9%.
Nominal values fell over the past year in Sydney, Perth and Darwin however, in real terms values fell across all capital cities over the past year outside of Hobart and Canberra.
Perth is the only capital city where nominal dwelling values have fallen over the past decade, down -4.6%.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/PP%20CL%20AUG%202.JPG" alt="">
 
When the change in values across capital city markets over the past decade is adjusted for inflation, the results look very different to the nominal figures.
Real dwelling values have fallen over the past decade in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin, have barely changed in Canberra and have increased by less than 12% Hobart.
At the same time, there has been a significant increase in real dwelling values in Sydney and Melbourne.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/PP%20CL%20AUG%202-2.JPG" alt="">
This highlights the deterioration in housing affordability in Sydney and Melbourne and the relatively weak housing conditions elsewhere across the country over the past decade.
With the recent declines in values across Sydney and Melbourne and the slowing of growth or continued declines in most other capital cities, Hobart is the only capital city in which real dwelling values remain at their peak.
Perth and Darwin have had the weakest 10 years for value changes and in these two cities real dwelling values were -29.2% and -29.0% lower than their peak respectively.
The declines in real dwelling values are relatively recent in Sydney and Melbourne, with values lower over the past four and two quarters respectively.
Perth has had the largest real value falls and has been falling for the longest period of all capital cities with the peak occurring in December 2006.
Values have been declining in Brisbane since March 2008 yet the real value falls from peak in the city at (-12.5%) is less than half that of the decline in Perth (- 29.2%).
Darwin has had the steepest decline in real dwelling values with a fall of -29.0% over the 21 quarters since March 2013.
In Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values have only started falling over the past 12 months.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/PP%20CL%20AUG%202-3.JPG" alt="">
Although dwelling falls have only been moderate so far, the expectation is that values will continue to fall over at least the coming 12 months.
In real terms this will mean larger declines.
As household incomes gradually trend higher and housing prices trend lower, we can expect to see some improvement in housing affordability.
Improved housing affordability doesn’t guarantee a return in value growth, real values have fallen a long way in Perth and Darwin and values are yet to rebound.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/8/2/PP%20CL%20AUG%202-4.JPG" alt="">
In previous downturns for Sydney and Melbourne, real value declines have been large and they have taken a long time to eclipse their previous peaks.
After real dwelling values peaked in Sydney in December 2003 they fell by -18.4% to December 2008 and didn’t eclipse their previous peak until June 2014.
In Melbourne, real dwelling values peaked in June 1989 and fell by - 24.3% to December 1995 and didn’t eclipse their June 1989 peak until September 1999.
Value declines in the two largest cities are a relatively new occurrence and given it is occurring from a back-drop of significant increases over recent years it could be many years before we see real dwelling values returning to their previous peak.
Especially when other external factors are considered such as tightened credit accessibility, potentially higher mortgage rates and historic low rental returns as well as the potential for changes to the tax treatment of investment housing.
Cameron Kusher is a property research analyst for CoreLogic
</body></html>

ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Larger dwelling value falls are coming: Cameron Kusher 

<html><body>
My findings reveal that while capital city dwelling values may well be falling, the market is responding with fewer new listings.
However, total listings remain elevated compared to other recent years when housing conditions were much stronger.
For this analysis, I researched listings across each of the past seven years.
 <img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/27/Listings%20DCs.JPG" alt="">
The x-axis represents the time of year and the y-axis shows the number of properties listed for sale.
This representation of the data allows for a comparison of where listings are at any point in time to the corresponding time in other years.
Another point of note is that the listings data tends to be highly seasonal.
Listings fall dramatically during Christmas and New Year and then pick up through autumn.
They then tend to fall during the Winter and rise substantially coming into Spring, then remain elevated until late in the year.
Listings across the combined capital cities over the 28 days to 22 July 2018 saw 21,849 new properties listed for sale and 108,436 total properties listed for sale.
The number of new listings were -6.7% lower than the previous year and total listings were 7.2% higher.
New listings are lower than they’ve been at this time of year, any year since 2012.
Total listings are higher than they’ve been at this time of year since 2012.
Melbourne (pictured below) – Over the past 28 days there were 6,821 new properties listed for sale and 30,029 total properties for sale. Compared to a year ago new listings are -4.8% lower and tracking at the lowest level for this time of year since 2014. Total listings are 10.5% higher than a year ago and are also the highest they’ve been since 2014.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/27/Listings%20Sydney.JPG" alt="">
Adelaide – Over the past 28 days there were 1,646 new properties listed for sale and 7,798 total properties listed for sale. New listings are -8.5% lower than a year ago and the lowest they’ve been at this time of year any year since 2012. Total listings are -2.8% lower than they were a year ago and the lowest they’ve been at this time of year since 2014.
Perth – With 3,007 newly listed properties over the past 28 days, new listings are -1.0% lower than a year ago and haven’t been this low since 2012. Total listings are somewhat different with 20,618 listings which is 1.7% higher than last year but lower than 2016 and higher than every other year since 2012.
Sydney (pictured below) – There were 5,601 new properties listed for sale over the past 28 days which was -13.1% fewer than a year ago but slightly higher than the number in 2016. There were 26,103 total properties listed for sale which was 21.7% higher than last year and the most for sale since this time in 2012 when CoreLogic was tracking 29,366 properties on the market.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/27/Listings%20Melbourne.JPG" alt="">
Hobart – Over the past 28 days there were 344 new and 951 total properties listed for sale. The 344 new listings was up 8.5% on a year ago and the highest at this time of year since 2013. The 951 total properties listed for sale is -23.6% lower than a year ago and sitting at an historic low level.
Darwin – There were 176 new properties listed for sale and 1,446 total properties for sale over the past 28 days. New listings are -3.3% lower than a year ago and while they are slightly higher than in 2016 they are lower than every other year since 2012. Total listings are -11.8% lower than a year ago and are lower than they have been over each of the past 3 years.
Canberra – Over the past 28 days there were 465 new properties listed for sale which was -18.4% fewer than a year ago and the lowest number of new listings at this time of year since 2016. There were 1,753 total properties listed for sale which was -4.9% lower than a year ago and the lowest at this time of year compared to each year since 2012, except for 2016.
Brisbane (pictured below) – The 3,789 new properties listed for sale is - 3.2% lower than a year ago and the fewest new listings since this time of year in 2012. There are 19,738 total properties listed for sale which is 1.2% higher than a year ago and the highest at this time of year since 2012.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/7/27/Listings%20Brisbande.JPG" alt="">
Across most capital cities the number of new listings is lower than they were a year ago, this is likely a response to reduced demand for housing currently, as a result potential vendors are holding off bringing stock to market.
At the same time, in softer markets such as Sydney and Melbourne, total listings are much higher than over recent years highlighting that although fewer new listings are entering the market the stock that is for sale is proving more difficult to sell.
The real litmus test for the housing market will be what happens in Spring, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. If, as usually occurs, new listings ramp-up and a lot more stock becomes available for sale this could create further downwards pressure on values. Don’t be surprised though if with tightened credit and an already weakening housing market that Spring this year is a lot more muted than what we’ve seen over recent years.
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New property listings shrinking in response to market weakness in capital cities: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVER
While overall regional housing markets have recorded greater value growth over the past year (+2.2%) than the combined capital cities (-1.6%), value growth in regional markets is slowing.
This is particularly apparent across some of the more populous coastal markets of NSW. In this week’s Pulse we look at the change in dwelling values over time across the major coastal housing markets outside of the capital cities and provide an update on how they are tracking.
Although dwelling values in across the Illawarra region of NSW increased by 1.4% over the past three months, values have risen by just 1.1% over the past year.  The 1.1% annual increase in values is substantially lower than the 17.6% increase a year ago.  In fact, the annual growth rate over the most recent 12 month period is the slowest since April 2013.  The Illawarra market is showing a similar slowing trend to that which has been experienced in Sydney and values are already -0.3% lower than their September 2017 peak.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg1.jpg" alt="Illawarra" width="727" height="301">
Dwelling values on the Mid North Coast of NSW, which stretches from the Great Lakes region north to Nambucca, have increased by 0.9% over the past three months and are 2.0% higher over the past year.  The 2.0% annual rise in values is much lower than the 9.6% increase a year ago and the slowest annual rate of growth since August 2013.  Although values are still increasing, the growth trend is clearly softening.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg2.jpg" alt="Mid North Coast" width="729" height="292">
The accompanying chart highlights that there is a rapid deceleration in growth occurring in the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie region of NSW.  Over the past quarter, values have increased by 0.1% and they are 4.1% higher over the past year.  Like other regions of NSW, the slowdown in value growth over the past year has been substantial; a year ago the annual growth rate was tracking 15.0%.  Dwelling values in the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region are currently -0.3% lower than their April 2018 peak.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg3.jpg" alt="Macquarie" width="727" height="307">
Although Richmond-Tweed is in NSW, it tends to be more closely linked with the performance of the adjoining Gold Coast housing market.  Values are still increasing, up 0.2% over the quarter and 1.6% higher over the year however, growth has slowed markedly from an 11.5% annual increase a year ago.  The annual rate of growth has bounced slightly higher lately due to a moderate pick-up in value growth over the past quarter.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg4.jpg" alt="Richmond - Tweed" width="734" height="295">
Geelong in Vic has seen the most rapid growth in values of all regional markets in the country over the past year.  Over the period, values have increased by 11.0% and the rate of growth is slightly higher than the 10.7% increase a year ago. It is interesting to note that the quarterly rate of growth in values has slowed over the past three months; while the pace of capital gains remains rapid, there are some early signs that growth conditions are starting to moderate.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg5.jpg" alt="Geelong" width="728" height="291">
The Cairns housing market has seen very little growth in dwelling values of late.  In fact, over the past decade, values have fallen by -5.4% and the market remains -9.2% lower than the January 2008 peak.  Over the past three months, values have fallen by -0.6% and over the past year they are -1.0% lower.  12 months ago, Cairns dwelling values had increased by 0.8% indicating that overall housing market conditions have recorded a subtle slowdown over the past year.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg6.jpg" alt="Cairns" width="722" height="295">
Gold Coast’s housing market has seen value growth slow significantly over the past 12 months.  A year ago, values were rising at the annual pace of 6.5% while over the past year, values have increased by only 1.4%, their slowest annual rate of growth since May 2013.  Values are -0.1% lower over the quarter and were -0.4% lower over the past month.   Although recent growth has not been at the heights seen in regional NSW housing markets and Sydney and Melbourne, the annual rate of value growth peaked at 7.1% in December 2015.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg7.jpg" alt="Gold Coast" width="725" height="295">
The Sunshine Coast is the strongest housing market in Qld for value growth with values rising by 1.1% over the past three months to be 5.5% higher over the past year.  Although values were 5.5% higher over the year, this was a slight slowdown on the 5.9% increase in values over the previous year.  Although values are continuing to climb, it is occurring against a back-drop of quite weak growth over the past decade with values only 12.9% higher over the period.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg8.jpg" alt="Sunshine Coast" width="731" height="298">
The Townsville housing market has been very weak over recent years.  Over the past decade, values have fallen by a total of -26.9% and they are currently -29.8% lower than they were at their most recent peak in December 2007.  The rate of decline in the market has steadied recently with values -0.6% lower over the past three months and -5.5% lower over the past year.  Although the declines are showing signs of steadying, the annual change in values has fallen from no change a year ago.  Once this market does eventually begin to see growth again, it will likely take a long time for values to return to their previous peak levels.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-16-pulseimg9.jpg" alt="Townsville" width="729" height="294">
The Wide Bay region of Qld which includes, Bundaberg, Maryborough, Gympie and Hervey Bay has seen values increase by just 0.3% over the past year.  Like many of the Qld regions listed, values have fallen over the past decade, down 14.2% and they are currently -14.6% lower than their May 2008 peak.  Over recent years, the market has been fairly flat however, the rate of annual growth has slowed from 1.6% a year ago.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-07/2018-07-26-pulseimg10.jpg" alt="Wide Bay" width="727" height="294">
 The regions highlighted are many of the most populous regional housing markets and in most instances the rate of value growth, much like we’re seeing in major capital cities, is slowing.  The expectation is that regional markets as a whole will continue to outperform capital cities but we would expect that the rate of growth will continue to ease.  Some of the coastal markets such as Geelong and Sunshine Coast are expected to see values continue to rise while the expectation is that the major coastal markets in NSW will continue to see value growth slow.     This is anticipated slowdown is due to a number of factors.  While tighter credit conditions are having the most visible impact on Sydney and Melbourne, the effect is national, with prospective borrowers facing stricter lending policies.  
Satellite cities such adjacent to Sydney and Melbourne have benefitted from a ripple of demand – with migration away from NSW accelerating and housing prices in Newcastle and Lake Macquarie and Illawarra relatively expensive, the ripple of demand into Sydney’s surrounding areas may be dissipating.  
Conversely, Victoria continues to see rapid pop growth from both overseas and interstate which is likely fueling a continued spillover of demand into the cities peripheral to Melbourne.  
Sea change is likely being boosted by the wealth effect and strong equity from Sydney and Melbourne home owners, as values decline in these cities and credit conditions remain tight, it may be that demand for holiday homes and lifestyle properties starts to ease.
Cameron Kusher is a property research analyst for CoreLogic
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Is value growth slowing in regional coastal markets? Cameron Kusher

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The Reserve Bank (RBA) released the minutes of its September board meeting earlier this week. At the meeting, the last for Governor Glenn Stevens, the RBA board decided to keep official interest rates on hold at 1.5 percent.
The minutes included quite a lot of commentary around the housing market which follows.
‘Conditions in established housing markets had generally eased over 2016. Growth in housing prices had declined at the national level and across most capital cities over the past year, although there remained considerable variation by location. Housing prices had been declining in year-ended terms in Perth for some time. In the rental market, inflation had remained around historical lows and had also eased across most capital cities, most notably in Perth, where rents had continued to decline. The aggregate rental vacancy rate had drifted higher and was close to its long-run average.’
‘Other indicators for the housing market had also generally pointed to weaker conditions than a year earlier. In the established housing market, the number of auctions had declined and remained lower than a year earlier, even though auction clearance rates had increased of late (particularly in Sydney). In the private treaty market – where, nationally, over 80 per cent of transactions occur – turnover had also declined since the previous year and the average number of days that a property was on the market had been on an upward trend. Members noted that sales of new properties were included in the turnover data, but that there might be measurement problems related to the long lag between purchasing and settling new properties bought off the plan, which could lead to revisions. Finally, in recent months the value of housing loan approvals had been broadly steady and housing credit growth had been lower than a year earlier, consistent with the earlier tightening in lending standards and low turnover.’
While the commentary is accurate, the recent strength in auction clearance rates, ongoing growth in home values, a rebound in dwelling approvals and lack of new stock entering the market for sale will likely pique the RBA’s attention.
<a href="/images/2016/09/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-22%20at%2010.54.50%20AM.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/09/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-22%20at%2010.54.50%20AM.jpg" alt="">
There were 2,062 capital city auctions over the week ending September 11 with CoreLogic collecting results for 1,882 of these auctions or just over 91% of all auctions. The final clearance rate was recorded at 75.4 percent, down from 77.1 percent across 1,899 auctions the previous week. Last week in Melbourne, there were 974 auctions compared to 830 auctions the previous week.
Last week’s auction clearance rate was recorded at 78.3% which was marginally lower than the 79.3% the previous week. In Sydney, the auction clearance rate was recorded at 80.6% last week which was virtually on par with the 80.7 percent recorded over the previous week.
Sydney recorded a similar number of auctions last week (758) compared to the previous week (747). Auction clearance rates were also lower over the week in most of the other capital cities. In Melbourne, auction clearance rates have now been above 75 percent for 5 consecutive weeks and they have been above that level in Sydney for 7 weeks.
Number of homes for sale
<img src="/images/2016/09/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-22%20at%2010.55.05%20AM.jpg" alt="">
Over the past 28 days, there were 43,999 newly advertised properties for sale nationally which was -1.7% lower than a year ago and 230,683 total listings which was -1.5% lower than a year ago.
Newly advertised listings were also lower over the year across the combined capital cities (-3.6%) however, total listings were noticeably higher (+4.1%). The only capital cities in which new listings were higher over the year were: Brisbane (+2.0%), Perth (+16.3%) and Canberra (+14.4%).
<img src="/images/2016/09/22/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-22%20at%2010.55.13%20AM.jpg" alt="">
In terms of total stock available for sale, the only capital cities in which there were fewer listings than a year ago were: Sydney (-2.4 percent), Hobart (-26.6 percent) and Canberra (-5.1 percent). Nationally, the number of newly advertised properties for sale is at its highest level in 15 weeks and total listings are at their highest level in 9 weeks.
A lack of new stock available for sale in Sydney in particular appears to be creating market urgency and has driven a rebound in home value growth along with surging auction clearance rates.
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