ANZ believes the Reserve Bank is in no rush to move again.

Following the release of the May Monetary Policy Board Minutes, ANZ has taken the view that the RBA is now firmly in a holding pattern, with the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes giving the Board scope to assess how the economy evolves from here.

That positioning, in ANZ’s view, makes a June rate hike unlikely.

The bank continues to expect the cash rate to remain unchanged at 4.35 per cent for an extended period, with the RBA adopting what is effectively a wait-and-see approach.

The Minutes point to a Board that sees financial conditions as already restrictive, but without a clear read on just how restrictive they are. That uncertainty has shifted the focus away from immediate policy action and toward monitoring both domestic conditions and global developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East.

As ANZ interprets it, the Board is deliberately avoiding strong forward guidance.

Instead, it is allowing itself flexibility, acknowledging that monetary policy has limited ability to influence the near-term trajectory of inflation, while also recognising that economic growth is likely to remain below potential for some time.

Despite that pause in momentum, ANZ notes that the Board still carries a tightening bias.

The Minutes reveal that, in weighing up its decision, the Board seriously considered another 25 basis point increase. The key debate centred on the trade-off between inflation and activity, particularly in the context of global uncertainty.

Ultimately, most members leaned toward the inflation side of that equation.

Underlying inflation is still expected to remain above target for an extended period, regardless of how external risks evolve. That has led to a view within the Board that the risks to its inflation objective have increased, and that the current cash rate may not be sufficiently restrictive to fully contain those pressures.

That’s important.

While the decision, for now, is to hold, the underlying tone of the Minutes suggests the door to further tightening has not been closed.

ANZ also points to commentary from Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter, who highlighted the risk that inflation could pass through the economy more quickly and broadly than in previous cycles. Both Hunter and a majority of the Board expressed concern that inflation expectations could become less anchored after such a prolonged period above target.

That combination, persistent inflation and the risk of expectations shifting, is what continues to underpin the RBA’s cautious stance.

However, where ANZ diverges from the RBA is on the outlook for activity.

The Board appears relatively comfortable with current spending patterns, effectively downplaying recent declines in business and consumer sentiment. It notes that sentiment has historically been only weakly correlated with actual spending, and that feedback from its liaison program has not yet pointed to a meaningful slowdown in consumption.

ANZ is less convinced.

The bank believes the link between household disposable income, sentiment and spending is more direct than the RBA is currently acknowledging. With inflation continuing to erode real incomes, ANZ expects household spending to soften more materially than the central bank is forecasting.

That divergence matters because it shifts the balance of risk.

If activity weakens more than expected, the trade-off between inflation and growth changes. In ANZ’s view, that would reduce the need for further tightening and reinforce the case for the RBA to remain on hold.

It also suggests that the current policy setting may already be doing more work than the Board fully appreciates.

The broader takeaway from ANZ’s interpretation is that the RBA is walking a narrow path.

On one side sits the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected. On the other is the growing pressure on households and the potential for a sharper slowdown in activity.

For now, the Board is choosing to wait.

But it is a pause that still carries an underlying tightening bias, rather than a clear pivot toward easing.

In practical terms, that leaves the cash rate anchored at 4.35 per cent for the foreseeable future, with the next move still uncertain.

For borrowers, it reinforces the reality that relief is not imminent.

And for the broader economy, it highlights the delicate balance the RBA is trying to strike, between bringing inflation back to target and avoiding an unnecessarily sharp slowdown in growth.

According to ANZ, it is a balance that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Joel Robinson

RBA to hold rates for "prolonged period" rather than hikes: ANZ

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/venturecrowd-property-projects">VentureCrowd</a> is down to the final Canopy Villa release at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara, as construction continues on the 59-residence gated community positioned above 100 hectares of natural savanna on the Gold Coast.

The remaining Canopy Villa forms part of one of four collections within the <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/bda-architecture">BDA Architecture</a>-designed community and has attracted interest from buyers seeking larger-format homes that combine privacy, security and low-maintenance living. Positioned within a private cul-de-sac and facing a protected black she oak forest, the four-bedroom villa includes a large private outdoor area suited to pet owners and families wanting more flexible space.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/cumulus-grand-villas-carrara-17-baltimore-court-carrara-qld-4211">Cumulus Grand Villas</a>, located at 17 Baltimore Court, comprises a mix of three and four-bedroom villas across the Skyline, Canopy, Savanna and Broadview collections. Prices currently range from $1.455 million to $1.895 million, with the final Canopy Villa priced from $1.825 million.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360477]

The Canopy Collection villas offer four bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and approximately 245 sqm of internal space, alongside double garages and landscaped private areas. Expansive glazing, open-plan living spaces and private balconies have been designed to maximise natural light and outlooks toward the surrounding savanna landscape.

Construction is now underway across the fully funded development, which VentureCrowd says has become an increasingly important consideration for buyers assessing off-the-plan opportunities on the Gold Coast. The project is being delivered by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/builders/devcon">Devcon Property Group</a>, which has operated in South East Queensland since 1993 and delivered more than 1,000 homes across the region.

VentureCrowd Director of Property David Whitting previously said the project responds to changing buyer priorities in the prestige Gold Coast market.

“Flexible floorplans have proven particularly relevant for purchasers aged between 40 and 65, including next home buyers, downsizers and investors,” Whitting said.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360505]

The buyer profile at Cumulus has reflected that shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand. Stuart Towns and Tracey Loynes recently purchased a Canopy Villa, drawn to both the lifestyle offering and the flexibility the home provided for their next stage of living together.

The couple, who met three years ago, sold their Robina home earlier this year after identifying what they saw as strong long-term investment potential at Cumulus while remaining within the same Gold Coast market. The villa’s private backyard was a major drawcard for their dog Luna, while proximity to golf courses including Emerald Lakes also aligned with their lifestyle interests.

Beyond the residences themselves, the community has been planned around shared lifestyle and recreation amenities. The Infinity Terrace will include a 20-metre heated pool, barbecue facilities, alfresco dining spaces and elevated retreat areas overlooking the surrounding landscape. Walking trails, a private nature reserve, orchard and herb garden are also integrated into the masterplan.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=135663 project_image_fid=360473]

BDA Architecture Director Darren Greenaway said the design approach was heavily influenced by the site’s outlook and secluded setting.

The practice sought to create what Greenaway described as a “little piece of paradise,” drawing inspiration from the elevated views, surrounding greenery and quiet location.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/carrara-qld-4211">Carrara</a> continues to attract buyers seeking larger homes within proximity to the coast but without direct beachfront pricing. Cumulus sits within easy reach of Broadbeach, Pacific Fair, Robina Town Centre and the M1, providing connections north to Brisbane and south toward the Gold Coast Airport and northern New South Wales.

The first stage of Cumulus Grand Villas is targeting completion in 2026.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=135663]

VentureCrowd nears sell-out of Canopy Collection at Cumulus Grand Villas in Carrara

Waverley Council has made a call that many councils have been reluctant to make publicly. Growth is coming, regardless of who controls it.

The release of the Bondi Junction Vision and Master Plan is less about whether the Eastern Suburbs’ primary centre will change, and more about how that change is shaped, funded, and ultimately experienced on the ground. Waverley Council has released a 100-page plan which is effectively the first comprehensive blueprint for Bondi Junction in over two decades, and in doing so, signals a clear shift in how councils are positioning themselves in the current planning environment.

For the past 18 months, the conversation across New South Wales has been dominated by the State Government’s Low and Mid-Rise Housing reforms and the emergence of the Housing Delivery Authority pathway. Both have created faster, more centralised avenues for development approvals, particularly in well-located, infrastructure-rich areas like Bondi Junction.

Waverley Council’s response has been to move early, and decisively.

Rather than react to individual proposals as they come through the HDA or broader State-led reforms, Council has sought to establish a clear, place-based framework that sets the terms for how Bondi Junction evolves. The underlying position is relatively straightforward: if densification is inevitable, it should be tied to infrastructure, public domain improvements, and a cohesive vision for the centre, not delivered piecemeal through ad hoc applications.

<img alt="bondi junction" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7f1f729c-ed99-4c6c-bf87-ffbce6991941" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-05-19%20at%209.58.16%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=ULX4OlXKjeJ5BvNCNGL86evgXCjCfMih" />

At its core, the document is attempting to reposition Bondi Junction from what it largely functions as today, a transport interchange anchored by a major retail centre, into something far more layered. The ambition is to transform it into what the plan describes as the “civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East,” a place that is active beyond commuting hours and capable of supporting a broader mix of uses, experiences and communities.

That repositioning is built around four key ambitions.

The first is to create a true destination. Bondi Junction already attracts significant foot traffic, with more than 86,000 daily transport users and millions of annual retail visits, but much of that activity is transient. People pass through, rather than stay.

The Master Plan seeks to change that dynamic. It leans heavily into the idea of an “18-hour economy,” extending activity well beyond traditional retail hours through dining, cultural programming, events, and a more active night-time offering. This is not just about adding more hospitality venues, but about fundamentally shifting how the centre operates, from a daytime shopping destination to a place that functions across the full span of the day and into the evening.

Oxford Street Mall sits at the centre of that shift.

Long seen as underperforming relative to its potential, the Mall is identified as one of the key catalyst projects in the plan. It is to be reimagined as a day-to-night spine, combining retail, dining, wellness and cultural uses in a way that creates a continuous flow of activity. Outdoor dining, rooftop venues, laneway activation and a curated events program are all part of the strategy, alongside significant public domain upgrades that aim to improve comfort, safety and usability.

&nbsp;

The second ambition is to transform Bondi Junction into a world-class interchange.

Despite being one of the most heavily used transport nodes in Sydney, the current experience is fragmented. Connections between the station, Westfield, Oxford Street Mall and surrounding streets are often unclear, and major roads create physical barriers that disrupt pedestrian movement.

The Master Plan proposes a more seamless, people-focused network. That includes clearer pedestrian links, improved wayfinding, better integration between transport modes, and a rethinking of how arrival into the centre is experienced. The aim is to shift the perception of Bondi Junction from a place people move through, to a place they arrive in.

The third ambition focuses on greening and open space.

One of the more consistent pieces of community feedback throughout the Vision phase was the need for more greenery, better public spaces, and a more comfortable urban environment. Despite being surrounded by major parks, Bondi Junction itself has relatively limited accessible open space, with much of the public realm dominated by hard surfaces and traffic infrastructure.

The plan responds with a network of new and upgraded public spaces, increased tree canopy, and what it terms the “Parkline,” a green link connecting Waverley Park through to Centennial Park. This is not just about aesthetics. It is about addressing heat, improving liveability, and ensuring that increased density is matched by access to high-quality outdoor space.

The fourth ambition is perhaps the most important from a development perspective: growth that gives back.

Bondi Junction is already the primary location for new housing supply in the Waverley LGA, and that is expected to continue. The area carries a target of 2,400 new dwellings by 2029, with further growth projected beyond that as demand for well-located housing continues to rise. The Master Plan does not seek to limit that growth. Instead, it attempts to shape it.

New housing is to be concentrated around transport, with stepped building heights designed to protect the character of surrounding neighbourhoods. At the same time, the plan introduces a more explicit link between development uplift and public benefit. This is where value capture becomes central.

The document outlines a framework where increased development potential is tied to contributions that fund public domain improvements, community infrastructure, open space, and affordable housing. It is an approach that recognises that much of the transformation of Bondi Junction will be delivered by the private sector, but seeks to ensure that the benefits of that growth are shared more broadly. The Civic Precinct is a key part of that equation.

Leveraging Council-owned land, the plan proposes a consolidated civic and cultural hub centred around Ebley Street. This would include new community facilities, cultural spaces, and potentially a new Council Chambers, creating a focal point for civic life that currently does not exist in Bondi Junction at scale.

It is one of several catalyst projects identified in the Master Plan, alongside the Oxford Street Mall transformation. These projects are intended to anchor change, acting as early interventions that unlock broader investment across the precinct.

Importantly, the Master Plan is not just a design document. It includes a delivery framework that sets out how these ambitions are intended to be realised.

Council is explicit in acknowledging that it cannot deliver the transformation alone. Implementation will require coordination between State agencies, private developers, landowners and the community, with a mix of planning agreements, infrastructure contributions and direct delivery mechanisms used to fund and stage improvements over time.

The plan outlines a mix of short-term, medium-term and long-term actions, from immediate public domain upgrades and planning controls, through to larger-scale projects that will unfold over the next decade or more. In practical terms, the next 12 to 24 months will be the most important.

This is when the Master Plan will move through exhibition, refinement and eventual adoption. It is also the period in which Council will seek to embed the framework into its planning controls, giving it weight in the assessment of future development applications.

Council officers have indicated that once the Master Plan is in place, it could be used as a benchmark when assessing Housing Delivery Authority proposals, and potentially reduce the need for further HDA declarations within Bondi Junction. In effect, it is an attempt to bring planning control back to the local level, while still aligning with State housing targets.

That tension between State-led reform and local planning control is not unique to Waverley. It is playing out across Sydney.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

If delivered as intended, Bondi Junction will become denser, more active, and more complex. It will support more residents, more workers, and a wider range of uses, extending beyond its current retail core into a more layered urban environment.

“The civic and cultural heart of Sydney’s East”: Bondi Junction masterplan revealed

Toorak's dress circle St Georges Road, home to some of the city's priciest homes, is set for a rare new apartment development.

Blood Diamond Group, an entity tied to Tina Brandi, wife of David Brandi who has been a prolific bidder on The Block over the years, has filed plans for an ultra-exclusive development across an amalgamated 3,662 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/104-106-st-georges-road-toorak-vic-3142">104 and 106 St Georges Road</a>.

The proposal would replace two existing homes on the riverfront site with a five-level apartment building cascading down the steeply sloping land toward the Yarra River. Designed by Charles Wright Architects, the development has been carefully shaped around the site’s topography and river environs, with the upper levels stepping back to reduce visual bulk from both St Georges Road and the Yarra corridor.

Planning documents describe the proposal as “a site layout and building typology that is consistent with the emerging character of the area and which provides exceptional amenity for future residents without compromising that of neighbouring properties.”&nbsp;

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ea19a17e-7528-4fa8-b727-05f2f7c025e5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20a_0.png?VersionId=rZ2IjdoUL_UrRl1sZ4wZHnQXbYUaEmUQ" />

The scheme comprises 12 apartments, including 10 three-bedroom residences, one one-bedroom apartment, and a substantial split-level five-bedroom penthouse. A 624 sqm communal rooftop terrace will crown the building, while three undercroft levels embedded into the hillside will accommodate apartments and basement parking.

The design leverages the site’s dramatic northern outlook across the Yarra River, with living areas and balconies oriented toward the water. A central atrium running the full height of the building is intended to draw natural light deep into the residences and improve internal amenity.

Landscape architecture by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/landscape-architect/jack-merlo">Jack Merlo Design &amp; Landscape</a> will play a major role in softening the built form, particularly along the river edge where significant setbacks have been introduced. The proposal includes a minimum 30-metre setback from the Yarra River boundary, preserving a substantial landscaped buffer between the development and the waterway.

While a mature English Oak near the front of the site is proposed for removal, the plans retain a large English Elm closer to the riverfront, alongside other established vegetation in the lower section of the property.

<img alt="First look: Blood Diamond Group unveils riverfront apartment plans for Toorak Pavilion" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ed3bf19b-5bc7-482f-bde7-41f709a13c3a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Toorak%20pavilion%20b.png?VersionId=SG_kBGu4rOaSPY8FtVcmPJfSCrstuOfg" />

Architecturally, the building adopts strong horizontal forms with expansive glazing and curved balcony edges facing the river. Planning documents note the upper levels “adopt a receding form” to ensure the building responds appropriately to the Yarra River environs overlay controls.&nbsp;

The surrounding streetscape is characterised by large contemporary homes embedded into the hillside, many presenting as modest one or two-storey forms to the street before expanding toward the river frontage below. The planning report notes this established pattern heavily influenced the massing strategy for Toorak Pavilion.&nbsp;

Until the recent sale of the landmark Clendon Road mansion Coonac for around $130 million, St Georges Road held the state's most expensive home, the $80,000,088 derelict "Ghost House" mansion that was bought by crypto king Ed Craven.&nbsp;

Blair House, also on St Georges Road, sold for $74.5 million in 2022.

First look: Toorak Pavilions slated for dress circle St Georges Road

Six months after a development site on Kangaroo Point’s Shafston Avenue sold for $6.55 million, plans have been lodged for a 23-storey apartment tower.

A company named JMT Mega Capital, understood to be interstate investors when the 1,222 sqm double block traded late last year through Patona Property, is proposing an 84-apartment development in place of the existing low-rise buildings.

The slender tower at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/212-220-shafston-avenue-east-brisbane-qld-4169">212–220 Shafston Avenue</a>, overlooking the Brisbane River, has been designed by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/aplus-design-group">Aplus Design Group</a>. It will comprise a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments above six basement levels, topped by rooftop resident amenities.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7e17ba9e-553e-42ef-92b6-22081671521a" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/podium_3.png?VersionId=hlVUf99vrOjUs.vhQs0qV0DhOncUy9T8" />

The development has been designed as a vertically articulated tower with recessed balconies, curved façades and planted edges intended to soften its scale within the evolving Shafston Avenue skyline. In the submitted Urban Design Report, Aplus Design Group said the tower had been “shaped with a slender vertical expression, articulated façades, recessed balcony zones, integrated planting and a clearly defined podium relationship, helping to reduce perceived bulk and create a more elegant contribution to the Shafston Avenue streetscape and broader Kangaroo Point skyline.”

The scheme comprises 84 apartments, including 25 one-bedroom units, 34 two-bedroom apartments and 25 three-bedroom residences. A total of 104 car spaces are proposed across six basement levels, including resident, visitor and accessible parking.

Residents will have access to rooftop communal open space and shared amenities, while the development also incorporates deep planting zones and subtropical landscaping throughout the podium and tower levels. The project includes 35 per cent communal space coverage across the site and a 17.5 per cent deep soil zone allocation to support urban greening outcomes.

The application exceeds the mapped building height under the Kangaroo Point Peninsula Neighbourhood Plan and is being assessed under Brisbane City Council’s impact assessment pathway. The design team argues the additional height is supported by the site’s strategic inner-city location, existing high-density zoning, and proximity to transport and employment hubs.

“The design has been developed to make better use of a well-serviced urban site within an established high-density residential setting, while improving the street presentation and overall quality of the public realm interface,” the report states.

<img alt="First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1ab44b1e-ff45-4bf3-8da8-8aa0cd79db33" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/site_10.png?VersionId=tSxeGekZOqj1e9g3PEn_yFoC3taKDp3U" />

The proposal adds to a growing pipeline of apartment developments reshaping Kangaroo Point ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, with demand continuing to strengthen for new housing supply in well-connected inner-city precincts.

Mosaic has nearly sold out its under-construction <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-bedford-by-mosaic-16-30-prospect-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Bedford by Mosaic</a>&nbsp;and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-carter-by-mosaic-77-linton-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">The Carter</a>,&nbsp;while Pikos recently completed <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/skye-residences-by-pikos-kangaroo-point-8-river-terrace-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Skye Residences</a> nearby. Pikos is also delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/gaia-kangaroo-point-108-lambert-street-kangaroo-point-qld-4169">Gaia</a>, over 230 three- and four-bedroom apartments on Lambert Street.

First look: 23-storey Kangaroo Point apartment tower planned for Shafston Avenue riverfront precinct

Property Investor

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Australia now has 2,156,319 property investors, according to the ATO.
                     Tax year 2016-17         Tax year 2015-16
One property             1,536,112           1,493,982
Two properties              407,971              395,910
Three properties            125,915              122,654
Four properties                46,460              45,229
Five properties                 19,504              18,872
Six or more                     20,357               20,017
Total                          2,156,319          2,096,664
That's a jump of 59,000 fresh investors in the 2016-17 tax year.
But the number of investors with six or more properties has barely risen with the latest ATO tally putting it at 20,357 investors in the 2016-17 tax year.
It was 20,023 in tax year 2015-16.
It is this six or more investor demographic that has attracted the attention of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in his pursuit of negative gearing changes.
The Opposition leader Bill Shorten has conceded that Labor's negative gearing/capital gains tax reforms were not “universally loved.”
“I would rather see more young couples buy their first home, than spend billions subsidising investors acquiring multiple properties,” Shorten argues.
“All of the experts know that with scarce taxpayer dollars it’s better to put money into health and aged care than give a tax subsidy to someone buying their sixth or seventh investment property,” Mr Shorten said.
According to ATO statistics a steady 71 per cent of the Australians with rental properties have just the one investment.
That's 1,536,112 individuals with the one property.
There are 1,300,344 individuals who own loss making rental properties.
There are 855,975 individuals who are in a rent neutral/profit situation with their rental investment.
An interest in a property means the property is solely owned, jointly owned or part-year owned – for example, bought or sold a property during the year.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australia now has 2,156,319 property investors

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Despite the material correction in housing markets, residential property investors remain markedly more optimistic than non-investors.
<div>
Investors sit front and centre in the housing market correction currently unfolding in Australia. For the first time, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment survey provides some insight into who this segment is and how they are assessing things.
An additional classification question added to the survey in Dec now allows us to separately identify consumers that own residential investment properties. The first results show an interesting breakdown on both the characteristics of this sub-group and their sentiment – the latter of particular interest given both the investor-driven housing market downturn and associated concerns about potential ‘wealth effect’ spillovers to demand.
At the aggregate level, 18.7% of respondents reported owning a residential investment property, broadly in line with official statistics.
Consumers in NSW, WA and Vic were slightly more likely to be housing investors while those in Qld showed the lowest incidence (15%). Not surprisingly the share of investors rises steadily across age groups, peaking at 27% for those aged 55-64, dropping back sharply to 14% for those over 65 (noting that this group is less likely to be accessing the tax benefits of negative gearing).
Again in line with the official statistics, the incidence of investor housing ownership is higher for those on high incomes (31%) and amongst consumers that are owner occupiers (24%). So-called ‘rentvesters’ account for just 7% of tenants.
Turning to the sentiment readings, housing investors are markedly more optimistic than non investors with an average sentiment read over Dec-Jan of 114.7 vs 101 for non investors and 103.7 for all consumers.
Note that this does not appear to be a by-product of income differences – across every income band, housing investors have more positive sentiment reads than non investors.
The positive spread is across all index components but is most pronounced for ‘finances vs a year ago’ (+16pts) and least pronounced for ‘finances, next 12mths’ (+6pts) – an intriguing mix that suggests investors have been unperturbed by price falls over the last year but that expectations of further declines may be curbing optimism for the year ahead.
On housing, investors are more positive on ‘time to buy’ but more negative on the price outlook. They also view ‘real estate’ more favourably as the ‘wisest place for savings’, particularly compared to ‘deposits’, but are slightly more inclined towards repaying debt than non investors.
Read the full report: <a href="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/file/Australia/2019/January/WestpacRedBookJanuary2019.pdf" target="_blank">'Red Book January 2019' (PDF 453kb)</a>
<img src="https://westpaciq.westpac.com.au/wibiqauthoring/_uploads/image/The_Red_Book/Red_Book_bites/Redbook-bite-20190131-2.jpg" alt="">
MATTHEW HASSAN is a Senior Economist for Westpac
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Matthew_Hassan-HHWHptmrw4

Sentiment of housing investors more optimistic than non-investors: Matthew Hassan

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Investors and owner occupiers will at times act very differently when dealing with their residential property assets, CoreLogic recently noted.
Over the September 2016 quarter, 9.2 percent of owner occupiers resold their homes at a loss compared to 9.8 percent of investors across Australia, but with strong regional variations.
Across the major regions of the country, Sydney, Regional Victoria and Hobart were the only regions in which owner occupiers were more likely to resell at a loss than investors.
Across the combined capital cities, 6.7 percent of owner occupiers resold their dwellings at a loss over the quarter compared to 7.9 percent of investors.
In Melbourne and the Australian Capital Territory, investors were twice, almost three times as likely to resell at a loss as owner occupiers.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/01/30/Corelogic-22.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/01/30/Corelogic-22.jpg" alt="">
Regional markets saw 13.0 percent of owner occupiers and 14.4 percent of investors resell their properties at a loss over the quarter.
In regional NT, investors were more than twice as likely to resell at a loss as owner occupiers.
Clearly it is more beneficial for an owner occupier or an investor to resell their property at a profit.
In a falling market owner occupiers may be more prepared to sell at a loss if they are purchasing their next home at an equivalent or greater discount, CoreLogic noted.
Meanwhile, investors, because of taxation rules, would seemingly be more prepared to incur a loss because they (unlike owner occupiers) can offset those loses against future capital gains.
CoreLogic noted the taxation system may potentially create risks in the future, particularly considering the heightened level of investment buying activity over recent years.
If home values fall in the future, investors (which have been increasingly active) may be more inclined to sell at a loss and offset those losses which in turn could result in much more supply becoming available for purchase at a time in which demand for housing falls because values are declining.
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Canberra investors copping property losses: CoreLogic Pain and Gain

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SPONSORED POST
When considering property investment it pays to look at what the professionals do - the big industry and retail superannuation funds and institutional investment organisations such as insurance companies.
Professional investors generally allocate anywhere from 8 percent to 15 percent to property within their portfolio. These institutional investors live or die by their results – there is no room for emotion or personal preference. 
So what types of property?
One sub-class of property the professionals do not typically hold is residential. Why? Because long-term average yields on residential property are generally inferior to quality investment grade real estate.
Commercial property on the other hand is able to generate distribution yields in excess of 6.50 percent for investors. The dispersed or small scale nature of residential property means the costs associated with the accumulation and management of residential property also contribute to it being viewed as a less than optimal option.
Of course dinner parties are peppered with wonderful residential success stories, but headline numbers and real rates of return can sometimes be poles apart. Residential real estate investment has high transaction costs including stamp duty, legal and agent fees, and  holding costs of land tax, insurance, council/water rates, external property management, vacancies, repairs and capital gains tax.
Whilst some of these costs are also applicable to commercial property, many costs like repairs, insurance and rates are often paid for by the tenant instead and other costs are lower due to the economies of scale obtainable (such as agents fee). The other big difference is that the rents paid by commercial tenants are generally much higher as a percentage of the cost of the initial investment. 
Further, the heat in the residential real estate markets in Sydney and Melbourne is showing some signs of coming off the boil. Hopefully this will allow a chance to regroup and make more considered decisions.
Professional investors typically invest in investment-grade commercial property such as offices, warehouses, hospitality and shopping centres. The term ‘investment-grade’ is critical. In short, it means high quality buildings with high quality tenants, often with long leases, which translates into strong and predictable earnings flows.
The two pathways to investment-grade commercial property are Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) and unlisted property trusts, also often known as ‘direct property’. Charter Hall is now one of the largest and most successful commercial property investment group’s in Australia and consistently holds up to five of the top 10 performing funds as ranked by performance in The Property Council/IPD Australian Unlisted Core Retail Property Fund Index.
Regardless of what type of property, take the time to consider the full suite of property options available and proceed with care with a trusted and well respected Manager.
Steve Bennett is fund manager for Direct Property, Charter Hall and can be contacted <a href="https://www.charterhalldirect.com.au/?utm_source=propertyobserver&amp;utm_medium=post&amp;utm_content=charterhalldirectproperty&amp;utm_campaign=mk4" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

What kind of property should be in my investment portfolio? Charter Hall

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The Investar website has identified five localities around Australia where rental yields sit at nine percent or higher.
But would you invest in any of them?
 
Rank Suburb State Postcode Dwelling Type Bedrooms Median Listing Price Weekly Median Rent Rental Yield
1 BROKEN HILL NSW 2880 House 2 $99,500 $200 10.45%
2 MANOORA QLD 4870 Unit Studio &amp; 1 $95,000 $190 10.40%
3 ZEEHAN TAS 7469 House 3 $79,000 $150 9.87%
4 PALM COVE QLD 4879 Unit Studio &amp; 1 $175,000 $310 9.21%
5 WOREE QLD 4868 Unit 2 $160,000 $280 9.10%
 
{mijopolls 135}
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Australia's top five rental yield locations: property investor poll

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GUEST OBSERVER
When planning on investing in property for the first time it is important to prepare yourself for the six main steps in any property journey (establishing finance, asset selection, negotiation, settlement, property management and portfolio review).
With thorough research and preparation you can go from a novice to a property owner in three or so months.
Month one
First things first: you should settle on your objective. In doing so, ask yourself the following questions:
<ul>
<li>What is it that I am after? Am I entirely investment focused?</li>
<li>What’s my budget?</li>
<li>When am I looking to buy?</li>
</ul>
To help you answer these questions seek the advice of a financial advisor to establish a financially viable budget and repayment plan that won’t leave you with unmanageable debt.
With your objective and budget determined start on your desktop research. This should involve studying the property market in your intended area and its surrounds. Those searching within two to ten kilometres of the CBD should pay particular attention to the auction/sale results, lifestyle factors, property types, capital growth and rental demand. It is also a good idea to visit your local library to access newspaper archives on past auction results and sale prices. This will give you an indication about whether the area you are looking in is one with proven capital growth.
Month two
Now is the time to get off the computer and take what you have learnt from your desktop research to auctions. Visit open for inspections and upcoming auctions for properties that are similar to what you are after in terms of location and property style. Doing so gives you knowledge of the current market and an up to date grasp of what fits your budget.
It would also be advisable to take this time to secure a conveyancer and if the property is for investment purposes, a property manager. Selecting a conveyancer before buying allows them to look over the sale of contract prior to the auction or sale. This limits last minute stress in having to find one just before or dealing with any unexpected conditions that may be in the contract.
Month three
You have done the footwork and know what you want to buy; where you want to buy and how you will finance it; and are now ready to find the right property for you.
With everything organised and in place start visiting properties, getting inspections done and attending auctions with the intention to bid. Keep in mind all your research to help keep you calm and in control throughout the whole purchasing process. Remember that while you may not win the first property, you are in the right position, knowledge wise, to find the right one even if it takes a while. 
Jarrod McCabe is associate director, Manager of Property Team, Wakelin Property Advisory.
When is a pre-purchase building inspection a must?  What do they entail?  How does one interpret the results?  What defects can be fixed and which ones should prompt you to walk away. Jarrod McCabe, associate director, Wakelin Property Advisory and Peter Alexander, building inspector, Safehome Building Inspections present a webinar for Victorian home buyers on April 20. <a href="https://wakelin.com.au/inspection">Click here to register</a>.
 
 
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Property 101: Planning for your first investment property with Wakelin Property Advisory's Jarrod McCabe

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Li Ruipeng, the Chinese businessman on the run from authorities in China and at the centre of a luxury watch gifting scandal in Canberra, has been hiding out on the Gold Coast, according to the Australian Financial Review.
Mr Li, whose instant noodle and property company owes millions of dollars to suppliers, staff and money lenders across China, is also in legal trouble in Australia, was in Australia as recently as last week.
Court documents show Mr Li is involved in 27 legal disputes on the mainland, owes creditors at least $30 million and is being investigated for illegal fundraising.
Mr Li often boasted of his political connections in Australia. He displayed photographs of these contacts in his office, including the now infamous shot of him in June 2013 with ousted human services minister Stuart Robert, former Australian prime minister and then opposition leader Tony Abbott and Ian Macfarlane, who at the time was opposition industry spokesman.
At the dinner Mr Li gave all MPs, as well as the wives of Mr Abbott and Mr Robert, designer watches. They were initially accepted, assumed to be fakes, but later returned.
Greg Roberts, compliance manager at Wealthcare Custodians, is taking legal action against the Chinese businessman.
Wealthcare, which was set up in 2005, had hoped to leverage Mr Li's contacts and build up a business providing advice to wealthy Chinese investors, particularly those looking to take part in the Significant Investor Visa program.
Sydney firm Wealthcare Custodians Limited confirmed it was taking legal action against its former chairman after he disappeared last year owing almost $300,000.
Wealthcare offer the investor the ability to consider a number of investment options; from the safety of bank and foreign exchange accounts over the major universal currencies, as well as a more actively managed growth fund. 
The growth fund offers a range of diversified, actively managed property and manufacturing opportunities, spread over rural, residential, retail, commercial, industrial, tourism and infrastructure sectors. Of particular focus are the areas of hospitals, aged care facilities and educational facilities in areas of need around Australia.
Its Australasian Infrastructure Trust was specifically designed and created to enable high net worth Chinese investors and their families around the world, to avail themselves of the Australian Federal Government’s Significant Investor Visa (SIV), which allows qualifying participants to apply for permanent residency in Australia.
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Chinese Rolex giver being pursued by Wealthcare

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GUEST OBSERVER
The renewed turmoil in global financial markets on worries about global growth has provided a reminder that we remain in an investment environment of constrained capital growth and high volatility. 
This has several implications for investors around interest rates and the yield investments provide.
First, interest rates are likely to remain low for longer: the Bank of Japan has cut interest rates on excess bank reserves to -0.1%, the ECB is likely to ease further, the Fed is backing away from rate hikes and the RBA is more likely to cut rates than increase them.
<a href="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.17.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.17.04%20AM.png" alt="">
Second, it reminds us about the importance of the yield an investment provides as opposed to just relying on capital growth.
Third, while a fall in the capital value of an investment is unsettling, the cash flow it provides is generally a lot more stable and becomes relatively more attractive during periods of market declines. But what do we mean by yield? Why is it so important? And where can it be found?
What is investment yield?
The yield an investment provides is basically its annual cash flow divided by the value of the investment.
For bank deposits the yield is simply the interest rate, eg bank 1 year term deposit rates in Australia are around 2.4% and so this is the cash flow they will yield in the year ahead.
<a href="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.18.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.18.17%20AM.png" alt="">
For 10-year Australian Government bonds, annual cash payments on the bonds (coupons) relative to the current price of the bonds provides a yield of 2.5% right now.
For residential property the yield is the annual value of rents as a percentage of the value of the property. On average in Australian capital cities it is about 4.2% for apartments and around 2.8% for houses. After allowing for costs, net rental yields are about 2 percentage points lower.
For unlisted commercial property, yields are around 6% or higher. For infrastructure investment it averages around 5%.
For a basket of Australian shares represented by the ASX 200 index, annual dividend payments are running around 5.3% of the value of the shares. Once franking credits are allowed for this pushes up to around 6.9%.
<a href="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.20.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.20.04%20AM.png" alt="">
Yield and total return
The yield an investment provides forms the building block for its total return, which is essentially determined by the following.
Total return = yield + capital growth
For some investments like term deposits the yield is the only driver of return (assuming there is no default). For fixed interest investments it is the main driver – and the only driver if bond investments are held to maturity – but if the bond is sold before then there may be a capital gain or loss.
For shares, property and infrastructure, capital growth is a key component of return, but dividends or rental income form the base of the total return. Prior to the 1960s most investors focused on yield, particularly in the share market where most were long-term investors who bought stocks for dividend income.
This changed in the 1960s with the “cult of the equity”, as the focus shifted to capital growth. It was pushed further through the bull markets of the 1980s and 1990s.
Similarly at various points in the cycle real estate investors have only worried about price gains and not rents.
<a href="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.21.15%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.21.15%20AM.png" alt="">
Why yield matters?
In times like the present a focus on the income an investment provides is important. First, with interest rates set to remain low or fall further, bank deposit rates – already at their lowest in Australia since the 1950s – are likely to remain low or go lower.
Our view is that further falls are likely as the RBA is likely to cut official interest rates to 1.75% in the next six months on the back of global uncertainties, sub-par growth and benign inflation. This in turn means an ongoing need to understand and consider alternative sources of yield on offer.
Second, a high and sustainable starting point yield for an investment provides some security during volatile times like the present. For example since 1900 dividends have provided more than half of the 11.6% total return from Australian shares and as can be seen in the next chart their contribution has been stable in contrast to the swings in the capital value of shares.
Dividends are relatively smooth over time. Companies hate having to cut them as they know it annoys shareholders so they prefer to keep them sustainable.
Finally, as baby boomers retire, investor demand for income will likely be high as the focus shifts to income generation.
Alternatives to term deposits for yield
The chart below shows the yield on a range of Australian investments. Yields on global investments tend to be lower.
All of these yields have fallen over the last few years as interest rates have fallen, but as can be seen several of the alternatives do offer much more attractive yields than term deposits.
Australian 10-year bond yields are now around 2.5%. This will be the return an investor will get if they hold these bonds to maturity. They can generate a higher return if yields continue to fall, but they are already very low. Global bond yields are lower, averaging around 1%.
After the house price boom of the past twenty years the rental yield on capital city houses is just 2.8% and that on apartments is around 4.2% and even lower after costs.
Corporate debt is an option for those who want higher yields than term deposits but don’t want the volatility of shares. For Australian corporates, investment grade yields are around 6.5% or less and lower quality corporate yields are higher.
Sub investment grade corporate bond yields in the US are actually now yielding around 9% as worries partly about loans to energy companies have pushed them higher.
Following the turmoil of the GFC Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITs) have refocused on their core business of managing buildings, collecting rents and passing it on to their investors, with lower gearing. While their distribution yields have declined as rental growth has not kept up with total returns of 15% over the last 5 years, they are still reasonable at 4.8%.
Unlisted commercial property also offer attractive yields, around 6% for a high quality well diversified mix of buildings, but higher for smaller lower quality property. And it doesn’t suffer from the overvaluation of residential property.
Unlisted infrastructure offers yields of around 5%, underpinned by investments such as toll roads and utilities where demand is relatively stable.
Australian shares also fare well in the yield stakes. The grossed up dividend yield on Australian shares at around 6.9% is well above term deposit rates meaning shares actually provide a higher income than bank deposits. In fact the gap is now back to levels seen during the GFC.
Investing in shares of course entails the risk of capital loss.
<a href="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.12.17%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-13%20at%209.12.17%20AM.png" alt="">
But a way to minimise this risk is to focus on stocks that provide sustainable above average dividend yields as the higher yield provides greater certainty of return. The next chart compares initial $100,000 investments in Australian shares and one-year term deposits in December 1979.
The term deposit would still be worth $100,000 (red line) and last year would have paid $3200 in interest (red bars).
By contrast the $100,000 invested in shares would have grown to $1.04 million (blue line) and would have paid $50,770 in dividends before franking credits (blue bars). The point is that dividends tend to grow over time (because an investment in shares tends to rise in value) and to be relatively stable compared to income from bank deposits which vary with interest rate settings. 
Key issues for investors to consider
While there is a strong case for investors to focus on investments offering a decent yield there is no such thing as a free lunch.
All of the alternatives come with a risk of volatility in the value of the underlying investment. In the case of shares the key for an investor is to work out whether they want a stable value for their investment in which case bank deposits win hands down or a higher/more stable income flow in which case Australian shares win hands down.
More broadly, in searching for a higher yield investors need to keep their eyes open. It’s critical to focus on opportunities that have a track record of delivering reliable earnings and distribution growth and are not based on significant leverage.
In other words make sure the yields are sustainable. On this front it might be reasonable to avoid relying on some Australian resources stocks where current dividends look unsustainable unless there is a rapid recovery in commodity prices.
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
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