Lower North Shore developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hyecorp-property-group">Hyecorp</a> is preparing to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/celine-chatswood-37-archer-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">Celine</a>, its new apartment development in Chatswood.

Set within a blue ribbon location on Archer Street, Celine will rise on a quiet, tree-lined enclave on the edge of the South Chatswood Heritage Conservation Area, a short walk from the connectivity which Chatswood is famous for.

Celine will deliver 122 one, two, three, and four-bedroom residences, designed to accommodate a broad range of buyers, from owner-occupiers to investors.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149594 project_image_fid=362610]

Designed by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/fuse-architecture-0">Fuse Architects</a>, the 29-storey tower has been shaped to respond to its Archer Street setting, with a defined podium and slender upper levels.&nbsp;

The building incorporates a two-storey residential lobby at the corner, double-height retail fronting Bertram Street, food and beverage tenancies along a through-site link, and two levels of commercial office space.&nbsp;

A landscaped pedestrian connection between Archer and Bertram streets will provide a publicly accessible link through the site, extending activity at ground level beyond the building footprint.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149594 project_image_fid=362606]

Inside, Hyecorp is emphasising scale and flexibility. Most residences will incorporate multipurpose rooms, allowing buyers to configure additional living, study or guest space within their floorplan.&nbsp;

Kitchens have been designed with proportions more commonly associated with standalone homes, complemented by Gaggenau and Miele appliances, integrated refrigeration, Miele laundry appliances, Taj Mahal stone and bronze tapware.&nbsp;

Buyers will also have the option to tailor aspects of their home through the developer’s “Live Your Way” personalisation service.

&nbsp;

Resident amenity will include an outdoor pool, gym and sauna, as well as barbecue and lounge areas designed for shared use. Upper levels are oriented to capture eastern outlooks towards the Sydney CBD and surrounding greenery.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149594 project_image_fid=362633]

The location places future residents within 800 metres of Chatswood Interchange, providing access to metro and rail services, and within walking distance of Westfield, Chatswood Chase and the Chatswood Concourse. Parks including Chatswood Park and Beauchamp Park are nearby, along with a cluster of schools and private hospitals.

Celine continues Hyecorp’s focus on the Lower North Shore. The Australian, family-owned developer has been operating locally for more than 30 years, with recent projects including Audrey in St Leonards, now nearing completion, and Juliet in Roseville. With registrations expected to open soon, Celine represents the group’s latest addition to the Chatswood apartment market.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149594]

Joel Robinson

Hyecorp unveils Celine, a striking new apartment tower in the heart of Chatswood

International development company <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/spg-land">SPG Land</a> has kicked off construction of the $1.5 billion <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/paradiso-place-surfers-paradise-103-ferny-avenue-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">Paradiso Place</a>, one of the highest value developments to get underway on the Gold Coast in more than a decade.

Located on a 1.15ha site stretching from Surfers Paradise Boulevard to Ferny Avenue, Paradiso Place, when completed, will deliver 845 residences across three residential towers. &nbsp;

Paradiso Place has been several years in planning by SPG, which has now pushed the green light on construction to meet pent-up demand from investors and owner occupiers.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106566 project_image_fid=185858]

The move follows minor amendments to the original design to cater to buyer demand, including the provision of more premium residential amenity, including private dining, lounge and events spaces for residents to entertain guests.

The three towers, comprising 41, 40 and 44 levels, will bring to the market 845 apartments with each tower boasting its own podium level interconnected skybridge to create a unique elevated ‘beachside village’ for residents.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106566 project_image_fid=362500]

The <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/rothelowman">Rothelowman</a>-designed development will bring a broad range of residences to the market, most offering ocean views and all enjoying five-star hotel amenities with world-class facilities and the convenience ground level retail precinct.

&nbsp;

Construction of Paradiso Place has been made possible by SPG’s newly established SPG Built division partnered with experienced project management group Eastview Australia, a company that has supported the development of a raft of major projects on the Gold Coast over the past two decades.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106566 project_image_fid=362499]

“It’s a very exciting time for Paradiso Place as we start construction,” said SPG Land Chairman David Wang.

“We have spent our energy refreshing design and assembling the best team and waiting for what we believe is the right time to start construction on one of the most exciting mixed-use developments to proceed on the Gold Coast since Oracle in Broadbeach and Circle on Cavill in Surfers Paradise. &nbsp;

“The local and interstate downsizer market is getting stronger, and we see Paradiso Place as the right project for our times right now. Our company has the capacity to deliver large-scale projects, and we are thrilled to be bringing this vision to reality.”

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106566 project_image_fid=185861]

SPG Invest, a company founded in Australia in 1998 with a focus on high-end real estate and premium hospitality assets, has delivered 56 projects in the Asia-Pacific region over the past twenty-five years, including The Peninsula Hotel Shanghai and the Global 188 twin-tower project in Suzhou and Cambridge Residences at Robina.

Paradiso Place will deliver a range of new apartments with two-, three- and four-bedroom layouts, as well as a collection of sub-penthouse and penthouse apartments across three levels. Prices start from $950,000.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=106566 project_image_fid=185852]

“We have a very strong vision for Paradiso Place – we are creating a unique beachside residential community where contemporary design &amp; architecture and luxury materials combine with five star residents’ amenities and the convenience of a premium retail precinct on the ground floor”, said SPG Land CEO Dr Ying Rao&nbsp;

“We are confident that the community will recognise that this is more than just another development. Paradiso Place will bring a much-needed retail precinct and lifestyle hub to northern Surfers Paradise with premium retail, lifestyle and food and beverage options,” Said Dr Rao&nbsp;

“The retail precinct is critical to enhancing the lifestyle amenity for residents and guests, so SPG will retain control of this precinct to curate a premium retail offering that will support this thriving new community.

“SPG will also retain short-term holiday letting to control premium and luxury outcomes in line with our vision.”

Construction of Stage 1 Paradiso Place is expected to be completed by end of 2029.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=106566]

Construction commences on $1.5 billion Paradiso Place development in Surfers Paradise

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/capital-corporation">Capital Corporation</a> has announced a partnership with Eden Brae Homes to deliver custom-designed homes at Lovedale Farm, the landmark masterplanned golf estate taking shape in the Hunter Valley wine region.

The partnership brings together two highly experienced businesses with a strong track record in quality, delivery and creating well-established neighbourhoods, and marks an important milestone in the next stage of delivery at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-townhouses/lovedale-farm-1054-1184-wine-country-drive-lovedale-nsw-2325">Lovedale Farm</a>.

As part of the collaboration, Eden Brae Homes has constructed the Lovedale Farm display home, which will officially open to the public on Saturday 21 March.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=14476 project_image_fid=362418]

The near-300 sqm display home, with four bedrooms and four bathrooms, is one of a collection of homes custom designed specifically for the project. It features a generous master suite with impressive three-metre ceilings, dedicated golf buggy parking, and a farmhouse kitchen complete with a butler’s pantry. Premium upgrades that further enhance the home include an outdoor kitchen, walk-in wine display and gas fireplace.

Pricing for homes at Lovedale Farm starts from $1.14 million for a 255 sqm, four-bed home with rumpus and double-garage on a 504 sqm lot.

The opening will give off-the-plan buyers, future residents and the broader community the opportunity to step inside the home, experience the design and finishes firsthand, and learn more about the homes and land now available at Lovedale Farm.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=14476 project_image_fid=362426]

Jim Hunter, Managing Director of Capital Corporation, said the partnership builds on a strong history of successful collaboration between the two groups.

“This is not our first collaboration. Capital Corporation has partnered with Eden Brae Homes across several successful communities, including Fairway Views and Fairway Gardens neighbourhoods at Kellyville,” Hunter said.

“Lovedale Farm represents a continuation of that proven partnership, underpinned by a shared focus on quality, delivery and creating places people are proud to call home. We are pleased to be bringing that experience to the Hunter Valley.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=14476 project_image_fid=334205]

Arthur Ilias, General Managing Director of Eden Brae Homes, said the Lovedale Farm display home showcases the lifestyle and craftsmanship buyers can expect and marks an exciting new chapter for the project.

“Lovedale Farm presents a rare opportunity to create homes that are custom designed for their setting, with refined layouts, quality inclusions and a strong connection to the way people want to live in the Hunter Valley,” Ilias said.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=14476]

Capital Corporation partners with Eden Brae Homes to offer custom-designed homes at Lovedale Farm

Aqualand Group’s new investment and development platform, Aqualand Prestige, has secured its first successful end-to-end equity investment, partnering with real estate investment group, Phoenix Property Investors (Phoenix), to deliver its new Roseville residential development.

The joint venture represents a significant milestone for Aqualand Prestige, leveraging off the group’s broader project pipeline, delivery capability and vertically integrated operating model.The transaction also marks the continuation of Phoenix Property Investors’ long-term strategy investing with capable partners to deliver high quality residential projects in Sydney and Melbourne.

Phoenix Property Investors is an established real estate asset manager with a long track record of investments across developed Asia markets including, Japan, Hong Kong, Korea and Australia, for, and on behalf of, its clients, partnering with leading local developers on residential, commercial, hotel and mixed-use projects in major metropolitan markets.&nbsp;

The Roseville project at 2-4 Larkin Street will&nbsp;comprise a part-nine, part-10-storey development with around 111 apartments. Development approval is anticipated for late March, with sales to commence later in the year.

Jin Lin, Managing Director of Aqualand Group, said the joint venture marks a defining moment for the group’s new investment delivery platform.&nbsp;

“Securing our first end-to-end equity investment under the Aqualand Prestige brand is a major milestone and a strong endorsement of the platform we’ve built," Lin says.

"It provides capital partners with the opportunity to directly leverage Aqualand’s broader development expertise, construction capability and proven track record of delivery, while allowing us to deliver smaller scale residential projects with the same level of design excellence and certainty that has defined Aqualand over the past decade.”

Trent Winduss, Partner and Head of Australia at Phoenix Property Investors, said the partnership with Aqualand on the Roseville project represents a substantial investment for Phoenix’s Australian platform.&nbsp;

“We’re excited to partner with Aqualand Prestige. The Roseville development builds on Phoenix’s strategy of aligning with best-in-class development partners to deliver high-quality, design-led residential outcomes in tightly held locations.&nbsp;

“Aqualand’s depth of experience, vertically integrated delivery model and strong record of delivering complex, high-quality residential developments made them a natural partner for us."

The Roseville project marks Aqualand Prestige’s first in a growing pipeline of medium-scale luxury residential developments across Sydney. They have two sites, on Archer Street in Chatswood and Pockley Avenue in Roseville, for future developments. In 2024 they completed AURA by Aqualand, one of the most expensive developments ever to be completed in North Sydney.

The Roseville project at 2-4 Larkin Street will comprise a part-nine, part-10-storey development with around 111 apartments



Aqualand Prestige partners with Phoenix Property Investors for new Roseville apartment development

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developments/chatswood-nsw-2067">Chatswood</a> has long been considered one of the North Shore’s most well-connected and amenity-rich neighbourhoods, sought after by those who want both abundant retail and convenient transport links on their doorstep.

International developer&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/changfa-group">Changfa Group</a>, who has delivered new apartment projects across New South Wales and Queensland over recent years, has teamed up with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/huirong-group">Huirong Group</a>, a Chinese developer with four decades of experience, to deliver The Anderson, just over 80 family-sized apartments near the Chatswood Interchange.

&nbsp;

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151353 project_image_fid=353251]

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-anderson-chatswood-54-56-anderson-street-chatswood-nsw-2067">The Anderson</a> offers a diverse range of apartment configurations, from one to four-bedrooms, including two 200 sqm double-storey penthouses. The tower, by AJC Architects, has been designed to intergenerational families and downsizers.

The apartments at The Anderson feature open-plan living areas that flow onto generous balconies, designed to capture natural light and expansive, never-to-be-built-out views toward Chatswood’s heritage precinct, with ocean glimpses from upper levels.

Interiors are defined by a restrained palette, premium fixtures and gallery-inspired wardrobe spaces, reflecting AJC’s considered approach to residential design.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=151353 project_image_fid=353258]

Positioned within walking distance of Chatswood Plaza, Westfield, The Concourse and the Chatswood Interchange, the development places daily convenience, dining, and culture at residents’ fingertips.&nbsp;

The joint venture partners will be brining further amenity to its residents, with street-level retail planned for the base of the tower.

Chatswood has been one of the most popular suburbs for new apartment buyers with the newly expanded Metro service across NSW taking Chatswood residents to Martin Place in just 11 minutes. Chatswood station is just a seven-minute walk from The Anderson.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=151353]

Changfa and Huirong launch The Anderson in Chatswood amid renewed demand for North Shore apartments

Petrol

<html><body>
Significant land banking and value are set to be unlocked due to the major changes to Sydney's public transport and road network system.
Opportunities are likely to be added along major arterials across the city.
CBRE's Victor Sheu told SMH that the new WestConnex tunnel project would divert traffic flow and commuters from the M4, unlocking greater commercial opportunities in the city’s Inner West.
“Service stations are already among the most sought after commercial assets, with properties secured by five – ten year leases achieving record tight yields," Sheu said.
"This is further exemplified by the severe shortage of commercial investment properties readily available to satisfy the growing investment mandate across Sydney at present."
“With 16 service stations located along Parramatta Road, the current changes to the city’s infrastructure network present attractive investment and land banking opportunities – with these properties underpinned by strong underlying land values as well as long term leases for immediate income.”
Sheu said changes in the city’s transport network – coupled with the rise of sustainable energy – could prompt further changes in the service station sector.
“With more leading vehicle manufacturers taking a step towards alternate energy sources, introducing both hybrid and fuel-free models, there is likely to be decreased demand on petrol – and subsequently the stations that service them."
“Given service stations are currently trading at a market peak, we expect owners to look at reassessing the use of these assets – either looking at alternative commercial uses or expanding the service station model to incorporate more of a food and beverage element.”
Caltex has already expanded its service beyond the traditional service station offering, having recently partnered with breakfast cafe ‘The Foodary’.
“With service stations traditionally located on high exposure sites, there is a huge opportunity to expand the service station model to capitalise on the shifting business environment with a food and beverage component,” Sheu said.
“We’re likely to see more service stations adopt this strategy, in addition to some owners looking at re-evaluating their assets all together to maximize value.”
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Sydney’s changing road network fuels major changes to service station market

<html><body>
MAB Corporation has sold a state-of-the-art service station and convenience store complex on Melbourne's West Gate Freeway for $22.5 million, the largest sale of a petrol station anywhere in Australia for more than 10 years.
The sale reflects a 5.5 percent yield.
The property was sold by Savills Chris Jones, Clinton Baxter and Ben Hegarty, in conjunction with Dawkins Occhiuto's Andrew Dawkins and Walter Occhiuto.
They said the marketing campaign generated strong international and local interest, with the purchaser a Melbourne based private investor.
 
"In addition to numerous local bids, we also generated multiple offers from Asia and Europe, with purchasers particularly driven by the property’s enviable and unique position on the West Gate Freeway, one of Australia’s busiest roads," Chris said.
"It was an opportunity that rarely comes to market and unlikely to be repeated given the dearth of similar sites and properties offering such strong locational advantages."
Clinton said investor interest was also driven by the state-of-the-art facility and the first rate tenancy profile offering stable long-term cash flow.
"The property offered investors a brand new state-of-the-art facility with maximum depreciation benefits to complement the strong income from A-grade tenants Shell, Hungry Jacks and Red Rooster."
"It really ticked all the boxes of a superb commercial investment,’’ he said.
The property at 62 Cook Street, Port Melbourne was constructed and opened earlier this year.
Walter Occhiuto said the property was sold subject to leases to Viva Energy Australia (Shell/Coles Express), Hungry Jack’s and Red Rooster on 15 year terms, for a total net income of $1.41 million.
The brand new complex comprises nearly 700 sqm of buildings, 1200 sqm of canopy and 57 parking spaces on a large 10,000 sqm site.
 
</body></html>

MAB’s West Gate sells for $22.5 million

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell 3 cents per litre to 113.9 cents per litre in the week to April 24.
The national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 102.4 cents per litre, down 1.5 cents per litre on a week ago and still up 6.7 cents a litre on the lows set in mid-February.
The petrol figures have implications for retailers, especially petrol marketing groups.
What does it all mean?
The latest data on petrol prices confirms that - contrary to popular belief and media reports – pump prices do not tend to rise ahead of a long weekend. Motorists enjoyed the cheapest petrol ahead of ANZAC Day in 11 years, with the national average price falling by 3 cents a litre.
As always, competitive factors, the discounting cycles and variable lags between wholesale and retail prices determine how capital cities and regional centres fare. But at present the key driver of pump prices is the variations in the discounting cycle across the capital cities. In Sydney, prices have been falling for 18 days and in
Melbourne prices have been falling for almost four weeks, with petrol at around $1.08 a litre in both capital cities.
Brisbane prices have been falling for a fortnight and are closer to $1.14 a litre. Adelaide prices spiked a week ago and have started to drift lower. Adelaide motorists would benefit by holding off from filling up the family vehicle.
Not only have global oil prices eased in the past week but the Aussie dollar has held up relatively well – ensuring that any saving in regional oil prices should get passed through to the bowser within the next fortnight.
In the short term, oil production disruptions in Kuwait and speculation of a further lift in potential supply by major oil producers will keep oil markets volatile. CBA commodity analysts expect oil to potentially drift to US$30-35 a barrel in the near term.
Importantly cheap fuel continues to keep inflation contained and the Reserve Bank will keep an implicit easing bias in play over the next six months.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.57.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.57.20%20AM.png" alt="">
What do the figures show?
Petrol prices
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average Australian price of unleaded petrol fell 3 cents per litre to 113.9 cents per litre in the week to April 24. The metropolitan petrol price fell by 4.9 cents to 113.6 cents per litre while the regional price rose by 0.9 cents to 114.5 cents per litre.
The national average Australian price of diesel petrol fell by 0.2 cents to 111.8 cents per litre in the week to April 24. Last week the metropolitan price fell by 0.3 cents to 110.6 c/l, while the regional average price was down 0.1 cents to 112.8 c/l.
Average unleaded petrol prices across states and territories over the past week were: Sydney (down 9.3 cents to 108.5 c/l), Melbourne (down 6.2 cents to 111.5 c/l), Brisbane (down 7.8 cents to 118.9 c/l), Adelaide (up 6.7 cents to 124.4 c/l), Perth (up 1.2 cents to 111.5 c/l), Darwin (down by 0.3 cents to 115 c/l), Canberra (down 0.7 cents to 115.9 c/l) and Hobart (unchanged at 117.4 c/l).
Today the national average wholesale (terminal gate) unleaded petrol price stands at 102.4 cents per litre, down 1.5 cents per litre on a week ago and still up 6.7 cents a litre on the lows set in mid-February. The terminal gate diesel price stands today at 98.5 cents a litre, up 0.2 cents a litre over the week.
Last week the key Singapore gasoline price rose by US$1.75 or 3.2 per cent to US$56.10 a barrel. However prices eased yesterday to US$55.30 a barrel. In Australian dollar terms the Singapore gasoline price rose by $2.13 a barrel (0.2 per cent) to $72.61 a barrel or 45.7 cents a litre. Yesterday prices eased to $71.73 a barrel or 45.1 cents a litre.
MotorMouth records the following retail prices for capital cities today: Sydney 108.1c; Melbourne 107.5c; Brisbane 113.7c; Adelaide 119.4c; Perth 120.5c; Canberra 107.5c; Darwin 113.8c; Hobart 117.8c.
What is the importance of the economic data?
Weekly figures on petrol prices are compiled by ORIMA Research on behalf of the Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP). National average retail prices are calculated as the weighted average of each State/Territory's metropolitan and non-metropolitan retail petrol prices, with the weights based on the number of registered petrol vehicles in each of these regions. AIP data for retail petrol prices is based on available market data supplied by MotorMouth.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.59.05%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.59.05%20AM.png" alt="">
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Lower oil prices may add further downward pressure on energy stocks and increase volatility across sharemarkets. However cheap fuel is a positive for a number of sectors including transport and logistics.
Filling up the car with petrol is the single biggest weekly purchase for most families. So the savings being reaped at the petrol bowser are serving to boost discretionary spending in areas such as cafes, restaurants and takeaway outlets.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Cheapest ANZAC Day petrol in 11 years: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

<html><body><div class="page" title="Page 1">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
GUEST OBSERVER
The headline CPI lifted 0.4 percent in Q4 compared to Westpac’s and the market’s 0.3 percent forecast. The annual rate is reported as 1.7 percent/yr compared to 1.5 percent/yr in Q3.
The core measures, which are seasonally adjusted and exclude extreme moves, rose 0.5 percent/qtr on par with the market’s expectation (Westpac was slightly higher at 0.6 percent/qtr). In the quarter, the trimmed mean gained 0.57 percent while the weighted median lifted 0.47 percent. The annual pace of the average of the core inflation measures is now 2.0 percent from 2.1 percent in Q3 (Q3 was revised from 2.2 percent).
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%202.51.51%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%202.51.51%20PM.png" alt="">
Of note in Q4 was some signs of pass through from a weaker AUD in the stronger than expected rise in clothing &amp; footwear (1.6 percent/qtr). However, in the quarter this was more than offset by the weaker than expected print from housing (0.1 percent/qtr). 
The March quarter brings solid “knowns” but many ‘unknowns’ linger.
 The March quarter will bring the usual inflationary pressure from health and education. We also see meaningful seasonal increases in tobacco. Another solid known is the significant offset from the fall in automotive fuel prices. But, as always, a large number of unknowns remain. We don’t have access to a lot of the data the ABS uses and, in many cases, it is not possible to replicate the survey process the ABS uses causing many small errors along the way. We use many alternative sources and surveys to guide our forecasts but in the end a large part of the forecast remains a judgement call.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%202.53.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%202.53.44%20PM.png" alt="">
Automotive fuels are again a significant negative.
One of the most obvious events in the last few quarters has been the extreme volatility in the pump price of automotive fuels. From a peak at the start of the quarter of $1.20/l, the pump price fell to a low of $1.04/l by the end of February before finishing the quarter around $1.12/l. In terms of the quarterly averages, we forecast that the price of automotive fuels will fall around 11percent producing a significant —0.39ppt drag on the CPI. Fuel is again the most significant negative we have found for the December quarter CPI.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%202.57.22%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%202.57.22%20PM.png" alt="">
We have noted before that the fall in Australian pump prices has lagged behind the Australian dollar price of Singapore gasoline. But at the end of the March quarter there was a lift in the AUD value of Singapore gasoline that was not reflected in the pump price. We previously had wondered if Australian prices had room to fall further, even with no additional fall in Singapore prices, as the spread returned to more normal levels. For now, at least, that spread has been normalised by rising Singapore prices.
Fruit &amp; vegetables set to be a modest drag.
This quarter our forecast for a 3 percent rise in vegetable prices is more than offset by the 7 percent fall in fruit prices. All up the 2.4 percent fall in fruit &amp; vegetable prices will provide a 0.07ppt drag on the CPI.
There are the usual seasonal rises in cereal products, pork and food additives. However, we are careful to contrast the ongoing price discounting we are seeing in the very competitive groceries space against the ongoing pass through of the weaker AUD to import foodstuffs. Our forecasts see food &amp; non-alcoholic beverages contribute less than 0.1ppt to the CPI.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%202.58.30%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%202.58.30%20PM.png" alt="">
Seasonal rise in tobacco prices.
There is no indexing of tobacco in the March quarter but historically this quarter has tended to see strong rises anyway. We have taken the view that there is a clear risk of a strong rise in tobacco prices again this March quarter. We also note that the Inflation Gauge also reported solid price rises for tobacco in Q1.
Holiday travel costs will be reversed in Q3.
Holiday travel was a touch stronger than expected in Q4 following on from a weaker than expected print in Q3. So it would be tempting to put in a softer than usual forecast for Q1 but BITRE (Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport &amp; Regional Economics) data on best price economy airfares is pointing to just a modest decline, as good as flat. So with the Inflation Gauge highlighting some modest gains in domestic holiday travel we have pencilled in a 2percent rise in domestic holiday costs, added to the small 0.5percent rise in international holidays. The rise in international holidays is due to the trickle through impact of the depreciation of the AUD offsetting the usual out of season discounting.
Dwelling prices have moderated.
Dwelling prices have been very volatile of late. Melbourne dwelling prices were particularly volatile in 2015 but as the year ended we were surprised by a 0.2percent decline in Sydney dwelling prices - the softest print since Q4 2011. Just as we saw in Melbourne in 2014, we don’t expect this to be repeated and, in fact, a bit of a bounce 
Sydney dwelling prices is very likely.
Westpac is expecting dwelling prices to hold their more modest pace in Melbourne and Brisbane with the mix of outcomes in the other cities pointing to a 0.6percent gain in Q4.
Housing overall makes a positive contribution of 0.11ppts.
Rents are expected to remain on a very benign path with a gain of just 0.3percent (was 0.2percent in Q1 so there are downside risks to this forecast) with modest gains in other housing costs and utilities.
AUD depreciation will have a modest impact.
We also expect to see more, if still modest, pass through of the inflationary impact of the AUD depreciation. This will appear as a moderation to the usual seasonal discounting of household contents and services; our forecast for a 0.7percent fall follows on from a 0.6 percent rise in Q4 and an average fall of 1.1 percent in the previous three March quarters. We also expect to see more modest than usual discounting for clothing &amp; footwear, –1.1 percent/qtr compared to –2.5 percent/qtr in the last three March quarters.
Overall seasonality tends to be negative in Q1.
Despite the usual seasonal rise in pharmaceutical, heath services and education in Q1, the ABS now reports Q1 with a seasonal negative as our seasonally adjusted estimate, using the current ABS seasonal factors for March 2016, is 0.1ppt stronger at 0.5 percent than our headline CPI forecast. In fact rounding hides the full impact of the seasonal adjustment, 0.15ppts at two decimal places. Seasonal discounting in clothing &amp; footwear and household contents are now having a greater impact on seasonality in the survey than the annual price resetting in administrative prices.
There is an important caveat however: the ABS conducts concurrent seasonal re-analysis and the revisions to the seasonal factors can sometimes be quite significant. As such, we caution that we can’t be sure what the ABS will estimate as the seasonal impact in Q1. This matters as the components of the CPI are seasonally adjusted before they are trimmed for the core measures. As such, revisions to the seasonal factors can impact not just the current estimate of core inflation but also historical estimates.
<a href="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.04.07%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/19/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%203.04.07%20PM.png" alt="">
Core inflation to remain at the bottom of the band, just.
Westpac is forecasting the average of the core measures to rise 0.6percent in Q4 with the annual pace holding flat at 2.0percentyr.
Traded goods &amp; services are forecast to fall 1.3 percent/qtr moderating the annual pace to 0.7 percent/yr from 0.8percentyr; non-traded prices are also forecast to rise 1.2 percent/qtr lifting the annual pace to 2.5 percent/yr from 2.3 percent/yr. Non-traded prices remain the key source of inflationary pressures with the focus still on housing and recreation.
Risks balaced for headline, downside for core.
A seasonally soft March quarter is a recent phenomena that emerged during the time of a very robust AUD which appears to have inspired greater post-Christmas sales discounting. This March, we are expecting some modest pass through from the weaker AUD but falling petrol prices and modest gains in housing costs will keep the lid on both headline and core inflation. While the Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge points to a robust Q1 CPI print, we acknowledge downside risks to our core inflation forecast as core inflation has recently tended to surprise us on the soft side. 
 
<div class="page" title="Page 2">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
<div class="page" title="Page 3">
<div class="section">
<div class="layoutArea">
<div class="column">
Justin Smirk is ‎senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/about-westpac/westpac-group/" target="_blank">here</a>.\
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></body></html>

Petrol

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Petrol

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News