Less than two years after breaking ground, Gardner Vaughan Group is celebrating the topping out of Bask, its second development in the exclusive coastal enclave of Bokarina on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast.&nbsp;

Located only minutes from the beachfront, the two seven-storey luxury apartment towers, known individually as Mydas and Caretta, offer a selection of one-to-four-bedroom residences with views of Lake Kawana, the Glasshouse Mountains, and Bokarina Beach.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333359]

Gardner Vaughan Group Commercial Director Sam Gardner said the milestone marks the home stretch for construction, with first residents expected to be able to move in from Spring 2026.&nbsp;

“This is a significant milestone in bringing this development to life and represents our confidence in this region’s long-term growth and appeal,” Gardner said.&nbsp;

“With 85 per cent of apartments already sold, buyers are joining an established, coastal village that offers the very best of the Sunshine Coast – seasonally patrolled surf beaches, renowned restaurants, and links to established health and retail.&nbsp;

“The final collection of three- and four- bedroom apartments range in size from 127sqm to 300sqm, each with two or three secure car parks and storage, and with construction fast approaching completion we don’t expect the last few apartments to remain on the market for long.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=333362]

Local restaurateur Luke Stringer, who co-owns and manages the award-winning Bocca Italian and Playa Mexican restaurants in Bokarina, has lived in the beachside suburb for 18 months and worked there for more than three years, and said the beachside suburb was thriving.&nbsp;

“It’s fair to say Bokarina is finally stepping into the sun and there’s a lot to love about the place,"&nbsp;Stringer said.

"It’s such a great community, where you see the same smiling faces every morning and everything’s within easy reach – it’s the perfect hub in the middle of the Sunshine Coast.

“When we first opened Bocca Italian, we were the lone restaurant, but it’s been amazing to see how the area has grown. The more venues that open, the busier it gets for everyone. When Playa Mexican opened its first Saturday night, Bocca had a record night and Playa was packed too, which blew us away how everyone is thriving.&nbsp;

“There’s a great energy around the place now, and people are really embracing Bokarina as a food and lifestyle destination.”&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=363368]

Stringer joined other buyers at Bask Bokarina and the Gardner Vaughan Group team to celebrate the topping out at a special event in February.&nbsp;

Located in Kawana Waters, midway between Caloundra and Maroochydore, Bokarina locals enjoy scenic walking paths around Lake Kawana, playgrounds, beachfront boardwalk and parklands, alongside all the convenience of a masterplanned beachside community.&nbsp;

“You see people jogging or swimming in the morning, then grabbing coffee at the cafes, people are really embracing the area and all this growth is bringing more people to Bokarina,” Stringer added.&nbsp;

To take advantage of the vistas, each of the 135 apartments at Bask is designed with full size windows and high ceilings that provide an abundance of natural light.&nbsp;

Prices for the remaining three-bedroom apartments start at $1,599,000 and four-bedroom apartments start at $3,149,000.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=141609 project_image_fid=363369]

The mixed-use development also features ground-level retail space for cafés, dining options and boutiques, including the soon-to-be-opened ‘Corner Shop’, by the team behind Noosa’s well known ‘Organika’.

Sam Gardner said Gardner Vaughan Group’s 37-year history building and developing across South East Queensland has contributed to the success of its second development in Bokarina, which follows the recently completed Zinc Apartments.&nbsp;

“We care how people live and this is reflected in the way we approach the design and delivery of every development,” he said. “Furthermore, as a builder-developer we have full control over the construction program and our 100 per cent completion rate is something people can draw confidence from.”&nbsp;

Founded by civil engineers Guy Gardner and Darryl Vaughan in 1989, the family-owned business has evolved from a consultancy firm to an award-winning builder-developer, with projects across the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay, Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=141609]

Joel Robinson

Gardner Vaughan Group tops out Bask Bokarina apartments

Prolific Melbourne developer <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a> has launched its fourth new Gold Coast development in as many years.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/hirsch-faigen">Hirsch &amp; Faigen</a>, led by Daniel Faigen and backed by Eddie Hirsch, co-founder of United Petroleum, has unveiled The Eveleigh, on a prime 1,100 sqm site at 7-9 Surf Parade in the heart of Broadbeach.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-eveleigh-broadbeach-7-9-surf-parade-broadbeach-qld-4218">The Eveleigh</a> will deliver 100 apartments across 31 levels, making it the company’s largest Gold Coast project to date. It builds on the success of its three earlier developments, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/hemingway-1267-1273-gold-coast-highway-palm-beach">The Hemingway in Palm Beach</a> and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/emerson-kirra-100-musgrave-street-coolangatta">The Emerson at Kirra</a>, both completed, and <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/yves-mermaid-beach-7-9-mermaid-avenue-mermaid-beach">Yves Mermaid Beach</a>, which is nearing completion.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360966]

The announcement of The Eveleigh affirms the company’s sustained confidence in the Gold Coast market which continues to remain undersupplied. It also increases the value of Hirsch &amp; Fa​igen’s Gold Coast development portfolio to more than $700 million since the company first entered the market in 2021 with Hemingway.

The company has enlisted its preferred architecture firm Rothelowman to design The Eveleigh, which will offer a thoughtfully curated lifestyle, including a substantial wellness precinct, communal recreation areas, children’s play spaces, work-from-home facilities, and shared lounge and dining areas.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360965]

Designed for the prime market demographic of downsizers and interstate lifestyle investors in mind, The Eveleigh has been crafted to offer an increasingly rare blend of affordable luxury in a tightly held market. Uniquely positioned in the heart of the Gold Coast’s most sought-after lifestyle suburb of Broadbeach, the project will also boast uninterrupted beach and hinterland views.

The Surf Parade site is just a short walk to the bustling Broadbeach dining and retail precinct, Pacific Fair, The Star Gold Coast and convention centre, and an easy stroll to Kurrawa Beach and the recreational amenity of Pratten Park on the Broadbeach foreshore.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=149670 project_image_fid=360975]

“We’re excited to be proceeding with our fourth project on the Gold Coast in what is certain to become the new luxury precinct in Broadbeach,” says Anthony Bueti, the CFO of Hirsch &amp;a​mp; Faigen and a shareholder of the group.

“With the likes of Mosa​ic and Abedian &amp;a​mp; Co also launching quality projects in the area, the transformation will cement Broadbeach as the premier lifestyle and amenity suburb on the Gold Coast.

"After four years in the Gold Coast market, and with three successful projects completed, The Eveleigh is the product of everything we have learned to love about the Gold Coast and it will be an incredible addition to our growing portfolio in one of the most vibrant property markets in the country. We continue to remain very confident in the high-end Gold Coast property market.”

Urban Activation Director Matt George is handling sales for The Eveleigh, having sold out The Emerson, The Hemingway, and Yves, all before construction was completed.

Melbourne builder MAXCON has already commenced construction on The Eveleigh. They are forecasting a mid-2028 completion.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=149670]

Hirsch & Faigen unveils The Eveleigh in Broadbeach

Two years after securing development approval for the final stage of its award-winning Thornton Precinct on the doorstep of Penrith Station, Urban Property Group is set to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/mayfair-on-penrith-172-lord-sheffield-circuit-penrith-nsw-2750">Mayfair on Penrith</a>, around 400 apartments designed to reflect two of Sydney’s most iconic structures.

The builder-developer has continued refining the design plans for the two-building development on a significant 8,280 sqm site on Sheffield Circuit, recognising the importance of the prime parcel as one of the closest developable sites to the station.

UPG enlisted architecture firm SJB to design the project. The team said they drew inspiration from both the General Post Office in Martin Place and East Circular Quay to help shape the design. The two-level colonnade, in particular, reflects the famous GPO building, which dates back to the 1860s.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362014]

There will be one-, two-, and three-bedroom apartments on offer, with interiors by Cox Architecture. Residences will sit above a retail podium featuring hospitality and lifestyle operators such as One Playground and Volcano’s Steakhouse, contributing to an activated ground plane within the broader Thornton precinct.

A communal rooftop with a pool and views towards the Blue Mountains will provide shared open space for residents. The development is positioned between Ron Mulock Oval and Westfield Penrith, with the Nepean River and Great River Walk also nearby, placing daily amenity and green space within walking distance.

&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362015]

Mayfair is being delivered by Urban Property Group, a family-owned developer and builder with nearly 40 years’ experience across Sydney. The project will be the first in Penrith to be offered with Resilience Insurance’s 10-year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI) policy, which Urban Property Group has adopted across a number of its recent developments. The developer also has a 4.5-star iCIRT rating, one of the best ratings in market providing further confidence to buyers.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said providing additional assurance to off-the-plan buyers has become increasingly important.

“Anything we can do to give confidence in our product is a plus,” Elias told Apartments.com.au.

“Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been. They’re making their single large investment, which is their home, and providing confidence is something that we feel is paramount.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=136726 project_image_fid=362020]

The LDI policy provides a 10-year warranty covering structural defects, with independent inspections carried out during construction and protection for owners if defects arise post-completion.

Mayfair represents Urban Property Group’s sixth and final development within Thornton, consolidating the masterplanned precinct immediately east of the station.

The developer, which builds its own projects, has already commenced construction. SRM Residential is handling the sales campaign.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=136726]

Urban Property Group to close the curtain on award-winning Thornton precinct with Mayfair on Penrith release

Investor appetite for Queenstown apartments is strengthening as supply constraints and four-season tourism continue to underpin demand across the alpine region.

In Frankton’s masterplanned Remarkables Park precinct,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/safari-group">Safari Group</a>’s 141-apartment Mountain Oak development is attracting repeat and yield-focused buyers seeking exposure to that market dynamic.

Brandon, who specifically targeted Queenstown as an investment location, said the combination of price point and limited new supply made Mountain Oak stand out.

“It is a quality product in a location that struggles to densify,” he said, referencing Queenstown’s land-locked geography and development limitations.

<img alt="From slopes to markets: Mountain Oak connects residents to the best of Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/658d4f_48c3ec1ae5df4a2cab7d23c07c7f51b3~mv2.jpg?VersionId=27K8oQ4ExDN8Yu70VHDa9Olq59XU36m3" />

Having spent significant time in the region, Brandon pointed to its global reputation and consistent visitation as key fundamentals.

“Queenstown is a known destination from people all over the world. The place is land locked and there are issues building there. It’s also busy all year round.”

That four-season economy, driven by skiing and snowboarding in winter and hiking, cycling and water-based tourism in summer, was also central to Sherry’s decision to invest.

“I believe the four-season tourism has major appeal as it would ensure that the property will not remain empty, unlike other areas in NZ,” she said.

<img alt="From slopes to markets: Mountain Oak connects residents to the best of Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/313_Living_WEB.jpg?VersionId=3LglY20Jp_MAzQYdvwODRWvtjL.cZcqI" />

Mountain Oak has been structured to respond to that sustained demand, with 365-day visitor accommodation consent underpinning a mix of one-bedroom, flexi, two-bedroom and dual-key configurations that can operate as either short-term visitor accommodation or long-term rental housing. Dual-key apartments comprise two self-contained residences on one title, allowing owners to generate dual income streams or occupy one side while leasing the other.&nbsp;

Under Safari Group’s optional visitor accommodation management model, owners receive 60 per cent of the annual income generated by their apartment, with 24/7 on-site management, guest services and listing exposure included. Independent appraisal modelling suggests gross yields of up to 15 per cent for certain two-bedroom configurations, based on estimated nightly rates and occupancy assumptions.

For Brandon, that flexibility aligned with his broader investment strategy.

“It helps to know that I can have it managed either way,” he said. “My focus is on purchasing high yield cashflow properties.”

<img alt="Investors back Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments as Queenstown’s four-season economy drives demand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c786ba7f-f974-4ce3-9833-1bcd9f2938d6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/658d4f_ae3c049f388f4c13bf801649d91cbb4a~mv2%20%281%29.jpg?VersionId=J25uvzGdvtFaXGzuwz28ewJ9wWzbtvur" />

He selected a one-bedroom flexi configuration, citing both yield and adaptability.

“I work remotely and can travel to most places and work. I enjoy making spaces that work for the lifestyle that I live and it seems that others also enjoy it.”

Ranging from 54 to 57 square metres, the one-bedroom flexi incorporates a separate multipurpose room suited to a home office, additional storage, or accommodation for ski gear and seasonal equipment, an increasingly relevant inclusion for buyers balancing remote work and alpine travel.

Interiors feature underfloor heating in bathrooms and a heat pump in the main living area, supporting year-round comfort. Upper-level apartments are positioned to maximise natural light, with sliding windows and balustrades in select residences enhancing outlook and ventilation. Units are available in both light and dark interior schemes.

<img alt="Investors back Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments as Queenstown’s four-season economy drives demand" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="8f9492e9-8ee0-4aae-856c-8996ed9d9a06" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/658d4f_7d066f5200024c1aa472d01e2dc776ed~mv2.jpg?VersionId=MLR5xn6fLqPdBi7vxyRT.1zhQX3Ln0Ev" />

Sherry, a repeat Safari Group buyer, said her previous experience with the developer provided confidence to secure another apartment.

“Their developments have always finished on time, the quality has been high, and I didn't feel that my investment may be at risk,” she said. “Knowledge of the developer and our two existing Safari apartments gave us the confidence to proceed with this one.”

Safari Group has delivered more than 2,000 hotel units and residential apartments nationally and is now undertaking its fifth Queenstown development, reinforcing buyer confidence in delivery capability.

Although Sherry was not initially targeting Queenstown due to its price profile, prior visits reshaped her view of the market.

“I absolutely love this region and believe it is a major tourist attraction, which led me to the decision to invest.”

<img alt="How Mountain Oak Apartments draws holiday home buyers to Queenstown" data-entity-type="" data-entity-uuid="" src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,dpr_2.0,q_auto:good/https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/f_auto,c_limit,w_1440,q_auto/https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/field/image/Ext_Cam15_Sunny.jpg?VersionId=SJAROUM_1s.Tr5ciMk4EEj5oAt_Vewmv" />

Construction commenced in June 2025, with completion anticipated by mid-2027. Apartments are priced from NZ$639,000, and the development carries Overseas Investment Office exemption approval, allowing non-residents to purchase.

For both investors, the purchase represents a balance of income generation and long-term portfolio positioning in a tightly held alpine market.

“I firmly believe my investments in Safari developments are a combination of all these elements,” Sherry said. “The location of this project enabled me to diversify.”

As Queenstown continues to attract year-round visitation alongside constrained housing supply, Mountain Oak’s dual-key flexibility, optional on-site management structure and established developer track record are resonating with investors seeking exposure to the region’s resilient tourism economy.

Investors back Safari Group’s Mountain Oak Apartments as Queenstown’s four-season economy drives demand

The Minns Labor Government is today unveiling a game-changing new precinct at Bays West – delivering up to 8,500 well-located homes, including a minimum of 10 per cent affordable and essential worker homes - directly above the new Bays West Metro Station currently under construction.

The landmark transformation will convert underutilised government-owned port land on the Harbour into Sydney’s newest suburb, while retaining important deep-water port facilities to support Sydney’s working harbour.

Located just minutes from the Sydney CBD and connected to a world-class metro, ferry, walking and cycling links, the Bays West precinct will rebalance housing growth towards well-serviced inner-city locations and help tackle the state’s housing crisis.

<img alt="Bays West" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c5f01d10-0b6b-49de-8033-d3ef2728cb6d" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-04%20at%204.06.12%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=UA6_r._1jYROJ5tFNXMHqjNYLKYWIN.Y" />

Affordable housing will be embedded from the outset, including dedicated homes for essential workers such as nurses, teachers, paramedics, firefighters and police so they can live closer to the communities they serve.

The precinct will combine new housing with public open space, opening public access to the waterfront for the first time in more than 100 years.

Night-time entertainment and creative industries will be anchored by the revitalisation of the historic White Bay Power Station as a cultural and community destination, connected to the harbour across a new expansive public forecourt.

Planning of the area will prioritise connectivity, including active transport links to neighbouring communities such as Rozelle, Balmain and Glebe, improved pedestrian access to the waterfront, and connections to the CBD, including an active transport link across the Glebe Island Bridge.

The Government will lead a master planning process that will include an international design competition to guide development across the precinct, ensuring homes, essential infrastructure, jobs, public spaces and transport links are delivered together.

It will be led by a new delivery agency to be established over the coming weeks, which will report to Minister Kamper who already has oversight of major precinct renewal projects including at Blackwattle Bay and Barangaroo. Once established, the publicly owned land in the precinct will be transferred to the new agency.

This is the first new suburb that has been built in inner Sydney in decades, it will see homes built alongside the Bays West Metro Station ensuring young people, families and downsizers are only minutes away from the CBD. As part of the transformation of the Bays West precinct, bulk port operations – including cement, gypsum and sugar handling – will cease on Glebe Island by no later than 2030.

<img alt="Glebe" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="46ef3c23-2ce1-4912-b8ba-5247de19d7b9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-04%20at%204.02.15%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=I5xKa7hLNlsueMsltA2dsYrRYtZCKvZz" />

The Government will work closely with industry to minimise impacts and ensure the continuity of supply. This includes a commitment of $270 million to improve road connections around the port at Port Kembla and to investigate increased rail freight capacity.

Working harbour operations across the precinct will be consolidated, mostly into White Bay, ensuring the precinct will continue to provide critical services for the harbour, including boat maintenance and marine construction and as a base for tug boats and for emergency services.

A new staging area will be established in White Bay, securing the future of the New Year’s Eve fireworks, Vivid and other major events for decades to come.

<img alt="Glebe island" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="0554b153-b225-445b-a633-75aecea7dec9" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-03-04%20at%204.06.17%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=P45ABy8KLuwjzVf04APWfeC4aOMA1Ngx" />

The cruise terminal will be retained in its current location, meaning tourists arriving in Sydney will be welcomed by the new precinct, with new shore-power facilities currently being installed that will reduce noise and emissions. The Sydney Heritage Fleet will also be offered new premises in White Bay.

Deep-water berths will be retained to preserve Sydney Harbour’s strategic operational capability, and the removal of the existing 1970s industrial silos, currently used as a billboard, as well as to store cement and sugar, will unlock new opportunities for public space and future housing.

“Right above a new metro station and minutes from the CBD, we’re delivering thousands of homes where people actually need them - close to work, close to services and close to transport,"&nbsp;Premier of New South Wales Chris Minns said.

“Importantly, this precinct will include affordable and essential worker housing from day one, so nurses, teachers, paramedics and police can live closer to the communities they serve.

“We understand that not everyone will welcome change, but cities don’t stand still. If Sydney is going to remain a place young people and families can afford to live in, we have to use well-located land better and plan for the future.”

Glebe Island to accomodate 8,500 new homes near new Bays Metro Station

Morgan Stanley

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Wealth management giant Morgan Stanley has said property prices could fall up to 15 per cent given the plunge in rental markets across Sydney and Melbourne's inner-city suburbs.
They suggested the damaging rental market will flow through to price declines and we will see a similar downturn to what we saw when prices dropped between 10 to 15 per cent until mid-2019.
“We expect the rental market to be a key channel of weakness, with any forced selling only later in the year as policy support is eased,” Morgan Stanley said.
“We expect a broad housing downturn, with the rental market in particular likely to weaken, as higher unemployment and a reduction in net migration both work to reduce housing demand, pushing vacancy rates higher and rental prices lower,” Morgan Stanley said.
SQM Research suggested price falls could be closer to 30 percent, however Morgan Stanley expect declines to be gradual in the near-term, given the significant amount of support being provided by the government and banks.
“However, given our expectation that unemployment is likely to stay elevated for some time, these measures will only delay housing stress and forced selling to later in the year,” the bank added.
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wdavis-8cCN98p7xp

Real estate price falls up to 15 per cent: Morgan Stanley

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Property price falls could potentially double previous estimates, down 20 percent rather than 10 percent, according to Morgan Stanley.
The revision comes after weakening sentiment and tighter credit.
Potentially facing declines at their largest since the early 1980s, the investment bank's analysis suggests peak-to-trough property declines are now expected to be about 15 to 20 percent, compared with previous estimates of 10-15 percent.
Evidence of worsening conditions will increase pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut this year, the analysis reported by Nine Entertainment concludes.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
"We are now watching second-round impacts closely," Morgan Stanley's team of equity strategists concludes about the broadening economic impact of the property slowdown.
"There is evidence of a consumer pullback over Christmas but jobs impact will be key for any negative feedback loop to push Australia into a balance sheet recession," it concludes.
A balance sheet recession describes where high levels of debt and growing nervousness about the economic outlook cause consumers or companies to focus on saving and paying down debt rather than spending or investing, causing economic growth to slow or decline.
The research says credit growth continues to slow with the share of interest-only and investor lending low, despite the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority removing restrictions late last year.
Finance commitments have slowed sharply for investors, it noted.
A 15-20 percent decline in real terms - after allowing for inflation - would be the largest slump since the 1981 to1983 decline, when the median house price in Sydney was $79,000.
Falls in house prices in real terms during the global financial crisis were about 9 percent.
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Higher property price falls could emerge in balance sheet recession: Morgan Stanley

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House prices are falling at the fastest rate in 35 years, according to global investment bank Morgan Stanley.
In October Morgan Stanley predicted the downturn, suggesting it will be the <a href="/news/morgan-stanley-forecast-property-downturn-will-be-the-largest-since-the-early-1980s">largest since the early 1980s</a>.
And December's 1.8 percent house price slide in Sydney put the harbour capital's housing market at a 3.9 percent decline over the last three months of the year, the bank noted according to CoreLogic's figures.
That equates to an annualised figure of nearly 16 percent.
Nationally house prices declined 1.4 percent over December, the largest house price decline since 1983, to be 6.7 percent down over the year.
Morgan Stanley have advised that the likelihood of a disorderly market correction and economic recession has increased. 
Morgan Stanley did note some of the housing weakness in December was "seasonal."
However its model of six key market indicators, ranging from credit supply to house price expectations, suggests approvals and prices will continue to fall with a likely peak to trough decline of between 10 and 15 per cent.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/subscribe" target="_blank"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/1/Subscriber%20strip%20ad.jpg" alt=""></a>
"A rate of the continuation of the rate of decline in December would be a signal we are shifting to this scenario (a balance sheet recession)," Morgan Stanley's analysis suggested.
<div class="_2vba1">
"With entrenched weakness across all aspects of the market, 2019 looks unlikely to hold an improvement."
"Focus is now on the broader economic impact of the ongoing correction. Further details continue to suggest a sustained deterioration in conditions, with few signs of a turnaround," the report warns.
Last year saw a number of the big banks change their house price forecast, having initially saw only small declines over 2018 and 2019.
ANZ revised their housing market forecast in November, instead seeing <a href="/expert-insights/buying/anz-revise-forecast-upwards-to-20-percent-house-price-declines-in-sydney-and-melbourne">prices falling as much as 20 percent</a> in Sydney and Melbourne.
They previously predicted 10 percent falls peak to trough on their <a href="/news/anz-revise-property-forecasts-and-see-10-percent-declines-in-sydney-and-melbourne">second forecast revision</a> in June 2018.
In October <a href="/news/nab-change-property-price-correction-forecast-after-confidence-collapses">NAB changed their predictions</a>, suggesting the orderly correction in house prices will continue over the next 18 to 24 months, with Sydney units falling around 10 percent and Melbourne houses over eight percent.
Now AMP Capital's Shane Oliver, Industry Super's Stephen Anthony and Market Economics' Stephen Koukoulas believe the <a href="/expert-insights/finance/why-the-rba-will-cut-interest-rates-in-2019">RBA will cut interest rates this year.</a>
</div>
 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

House prices falling at the fastest rate in 35 years: Morgan Stanley

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Morgan Stanley has forecast the current property downturn will be the largest since the early 1980s.
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“We now see a 10-15 per cent peak to trough decline in real house prices, from 5-10 per cent previously, which would mark the largest decline since the early 1980s," the investment bank said.
“This downgrade largely reflects the downturn’s extended length, as we expect the relatively orderly declines to date will continue.”
The early 1980s saw a severe global economic recession.
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="1539287775296" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="1539287775296" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">The current modelling now points to larger home price falls arising from new housing supply.
“All housing market drivers remain a drag, but supply-demand balance was the main driver of this quarter’s decline, adding to the drag in previous quarters from tightening credit supply,” Morgan Stanley says, according to the Business Insider website.
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<div class="_1lC_G"> The category measures the gap between completions and the net increase in households.</div>
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“On the supply-side, the run-up in construction from the east coast apartment boom has continued longer than we expected, with completions around 215,000 annualised.
<p data-gtm-vis-recent-on-screen-6236702_632="1539287785316" data-gtm-vis-first-on-screen-6236702_632="1539287785316" data-gtm-vis-total-visible-time-6236702_632="4000" data-gtm-vis-has-fired-6236702_632="1">“On the demand side, net migration has fallen noticeably in the past few quarters, trimming our underlying demand estimate to around 175,000.”
</div>
“We struggle to see improvement in any of our components over the next year, with pre-existing headwinds of net supply, an RBA on hold and sustained focus on lending standards, all independent of potential negative gearing/capital gains tax changes,” Morgan Stanley says.
<div class="_1665V undefined">
With households two times more leveraged to housing than in the early 1980s, the impact on housing equity would be larger again.
</div>
<div class="_1lC_G">Morgan Stanley suggest the large correction comes with a small risk of a disorderly price decline.</div>
<div class="_1665V undefined">
“An acceleration of declines are in our bear case, and we will continue to monitor stress points, including arrears trends,” it says.
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Morgan Stanley forecast property downturn will be the largest since the early 1980s

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Prestige property values are falling twice as fast as low-end housing, the investment bank Morgan Stanley suggest.
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Daniel Blake, equity strategist, said there is no evidence of any economic, policy or banking changes that might stop the fall in property prices.
And regulatory changes are considered a further headwind.
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The real estate values in top end postcodes has been sliding at an annual rate of about eight percent, compared to four per cent for properties in the bottom, or fourth quartile, its analysis shows.
Rising interest rates, political uncertainty, stagnant incomes and increasing investor nervousness about the Labor Party's proposed changes to negative gearing are contributing to a sharp downturn in lower priced property too, it shows.
"Given the subdued outlook for credit demand and supply, the still elevated level of prices and indebted households, it looks unlikely that the market will trough in the immediate future," the bank's report concludes, adding the underlying weakness is "entrenched," Blake said.
Last month Morgan Stanley analysts released a bearish outlook on the state of the property market.
“Our housing model suggests that both prices and approvals are likely to fall further, and given the subdued outlook for credit demand and supply, the still-elevated level of prices and indebted households, it looks unlikely that the market will trough in the immediate future,” it wrote.
 
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Prestige property values falling twice as fast as low-end housing

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Residential property prices are expected to slump by about 8%, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley.
The macro-prudential controls, rising funding and compliance costs and tougher approvals checks on property investors will also contribute to loan growth falling from 6% to 4%, it warns.  
"The risk is skewed to the downside given an increasing focus on responsible lending," the Australian Financial Review reports. 
"The banks' modelling suggests the likely decline in prices will continue throughout 2018," the report noted adding the fall will be in "high single digits". 
Both the quantity and availability of credit is the key constraint on growth, the report states.
"With national prices down 1.5% from the peak late last year, it is clear the housing market has turned," the report states.
"But in contrast with others in the market who view the worst as behind us, we expect prices to fall further throughout 2018, as credit availability is tightened further and a stretched consumer reassesses the outlook.
"While the backlog of approvals not yet completed remains high, we expect some projects to be shelved given tighter credit conditions."
However ANZ economists have suggested “the worst is behind” the property market predicting a 2 per cent gain in 2018 and 4 per cent next year.
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