Money Lending

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Is Perth about to boom?
The NAB survey today certainly suggests so.
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<div>In Q3 Business Conditions for Western Australia practically exploded higher from a reading of 2 to 25, while business confidence went from a negative reading of -1 all the way up to 10 across a single quarter of trading. </div>
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<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sopqcq0XBLA/X3sNbSaoZDI/AAAAAAAA4qM/50kqimyXn8cO78694yN01OsiE3dt-7VngCNcBGAsYHQ/s740/NAB.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge:</a></div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sopqcq0XBLA/X3sNbSaoZDI/AAAAAAAA4qM/50kqimyXn8cO78694yN01OsiE3dt-7VngCNcBGAsYHQ/s740/NAB.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-sopqcq0XBLA/X3sNbSaoZDI/AAAAAAAA4qM/50kqimyXn8cO78694yN01OsiE3dt-7VngCNcBGAsYHQ/w640-h606/NAB.jpg" width="640" height="606" data-original-height="700" data-original-width="740"></a></div>
 <div>Source: NAB</div>
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<div>Having barely been touched by COVID-10 since April, the local jobs market is clearly enjoying the stimulus, and jobs vacancies for Western Australia are suddenly at the highest level since the resources boom years. </div>
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<div>Is Perth property about to boom, then?</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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Perth property looks set to boom: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A significant day for bank stocks as it was announced that the responsible lending laws that have been in place since 2009 will likely be wound back.
All of the major lenders saw a significant jump in their stock prices.
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This will no doubt act to speed up the pace of loan approvals and bank lending, albeit probably not for 6-12 months, with less of the forensic poring over household expenditure for mortgage applications, which has at times made the lending process more akin to an audit than a credit approval.
Most likely there will be an easing of some of the existing HEM restrictions as the legislation is passed, and less scrutiny of household expenditure line items.
The responsibility will more so fall back on to borrowers to declare complete and accurate information, instead of looking for lenders or brokers to blame wherever a loan goes bad.
This may also increase the availability and capacity for some individuals to borrow, though it remains to be seen how much.
Offsetting this to some extent will be the introduction of the best interests duty for brokers, effective 1 January 2021.
The Reserve Bank had previously noted that lending had become excessively risk averse, and this move will slash approval times assuming it is legislated on a timely basis.
Symbolic shift
Moreover, the announced planned changes are symbolic, suggesting that the credit pendulum is now likely set to swing back in the other direction, after half a decade of tightening which reduced the total borrowing capacity of some borrowers by half.
The announcement will also foster more competition between banks, with one large lender immediately offering lower variable rates, including on investment loans.
There are still significant headwinds for the economy to be navigated, of course, but the combination of record low mortgage rates and the signaling of a simplified approval process should bring the housing market back to life in 2021.
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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Responsible lending laws to be wound back: Pete Wargent

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The level of bank discounting to borrowers will be closely scrutinised by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority given the regulators' heightened focus on responsible lending, Deloitte partner Kevin Nixon has warned.
"If you are offering big discounts, you can expect APRA to ask why, particularly if it looks like the main goal is to increase volumes ahead of quarterly announcements. Further, under the broader culture remit there will be a focus on transparency and fairness in pricing," Mr Nixon told Fairfax Media.
Banks will continue to offer owner occupiers steep discounts on standard variable rates to protect their market share as investor lending is tightened, Deloitte's annual Australian mortgage report has suggested.
Major banks had been offering owner occupiers discounts on the standard variable rate of up to 130 basis points. 
Discounts are currently tracking at 100 basis points, it noted, where loans are for 80 per cent or less of the value of the property.
New owner occupiers or those refinancing loans should be able to access financing at around 4 per cent.
A survey of mortgage experts expect discounting for owner occupiers to continue, but perhaps at a reduced rate of between 80 and 120 basis points this year. 
Leaning towards 80 basis points, said AFG executive director Malcolm Watkins.
But for investors, loan discounts have tightened.
Deloitte said the ongoing discounts on banks' "front book" (new loans) are putting pressure on net interest margins, which is increasing the pressure to increase standard variable rates on the "back book" (existing loans).
Deloitte's report was based the report on a survey with 10 leaders of the mortgage industry.
The participants in the survey were: banks Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank, Bank of Queensland and Suncorp; non-bank lenders Pepper Group and Homeloans; mortgage brokers AFG and eChoice; and consultants CoreLogic and Steve Weston.
Half of the survey participants said they expect settlement volumes to fall this year compared to 2016.
But six out of 10 respondents say house prices will continue to grow, albeit at a lower level than 2015 to 2016. 
Two participants in the survey said house price growth could be higher than 2016 levels; while two said it would be flat - but no-one is forecasting that house prices in Sydney or Melbourne would fall, or that there would be a significant downturn across the country.
Meg Bonighton, general manager of home lending at NAB, said tighter lending standards and the macroprudential investor loan growth caps will see demand from investors and overseas borrowers "continuing to moderate" in 2017.
"In general, it will soften the impact on house price growth that we've seen over the past couple of years, while pockets of major cities are likely to continue with solid growth," she said.
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Deloitte warns APRA is watching bank discounting

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Australia's home loans industry has improved its performance over the past year, adopting better 'responsible lending' practices, an ASIC review has found, though there is still  room for improvement. 　
ASIC has released its report (<a href="https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/reports/rep-493-review-of-interest-only-home-loans-mortgage-brokers-inquiries-into-consumers-requirements-and-objectives/" target="_blank" title="REP 493 Review of interest-only home loans: Mortgage brokers’ inquiries into consumers’ requirements and objectives">REP 493</a>) 'Review of interest-only home loans: Mortgage brokers’ inquiries into consumers’ requirements and objectives' on the responsible lending practices of 11 large mortgage brokers with a particular focus on how they inquire into and record consumers' requirements and objectives.
It also examined how the changes implemented by lenders in response to the findings from ASIC’s report into interest-only home loans from 12 months ago last year (refer: <a href="https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/reports/rep-445-review-of-interest-only-home-loans/" target="_blank" title="REP 445 Review of interest-only home loans">Report 445</a>) have flowed through to mortgage brokers.　
Since the release of Report 445 in August 2015,  　
<ul>
<li>the percentage of new home loans approved by lenders which are interest-only has decreased by 12 percent; and　</li>
<li>the amount that can be borrowed by an individual consumer through an interest-only home loan has decreased, as lenders have adjusted their assessment of consumers' ability to repay, in line with ASIC's recommendation in Report 445. 　</li>
</ul>
Information provided by the mortgage brokers showed that for the six months from July 2015 to December 2015,    　
<ul>
<li>the number of new interest-only home loans fell by 16.3 percent, with total value of these loans reducing by 15.6 percent; and　</li>
<li>the percentage of interest-only loans with a term greater than five years reduced by more than half, from 11.2 percent to 5.1 percent.　</li>
</ul>
Almost 80 percent of applications reviewed included a statement summarising how the interest-only feature specifically met the consumer's requirements and objectives. This compared favourably with Report 445's finding that more than 30 percentof applications reviewed showed no evidence the lender had considered whether the interest-only loan met the consumer's requirements.　
'It is vital that mortgage brokers understand consumers' requirements and objectives to ensure they are not placed in unsuitable credit contracts,' said ASIC deputy chairman Peter Kell.
'ASIC is pleased that our concerns about interest-only loans and responsible lending are being acted on by the home lending industry, but there is still room for improvement.' 　
ASIC identified practices that place brokers at increased risk of non-compliance with their responsible lending obligations, and identified opportunities for brokers to improve their practices. Key compliance risks identified included:  　
<ul>
<li>Policies and procedures—Mortgage broker policies and procedures provided only general information, rather than tailored information on specific products and loan features that may impose increased financial obligations or restrict repayment flexibility (such as interest-only home loans); 　</li>
<li>Recording of inquiries—Record keeping was inconsistent and in some cases records were fragmented and incomplete; 　</li>
<li>Explaining the loan choice—More than 20 percent of applications reviewed did not include a statement explaining how the interest-only feature of the loan specifically met the consumer’s underlying requirements and objectives. The level of detail in these statements varied considerably and in some cases, where an interest-only loan was specifically sought by a consumer (including where this option was recommended by a third party, such as an accountant), the reason for this was not clear; 　</li>
<li>Consumer understanding of risks and costs—In some cases, where the potential benefit of the interest-only loan depended on the consumer taking specific action (for example, allocating additional funds to higher interest debt), it was unclear whether the consumer understood the potential risks/additional costs if the specific action was not taken. 　</li>
</ul>
The report details steps that mortgage brokers should take to improve their current practices, including: 　
<ul>
<li>Ensuring they understand the consumer's underlying objectives for requesting specific loan products and features;　</li>
<li>Recording concise summaries of consumers' requirements and objectives and the reason why a particular product, features and lender was chosen;　</li>
<li>Providing a statement summarising the broker's understanding of the consumer's requirements and objectives, which could also include the reason a particular loan is suggested, for the consumer to confirm before obtaining a loan.　</li>
<li>Where the potential benefits of a loan feature might require the consumer to undertake specific behaviour, ensuring consumers were aware of the action they needed to take to obtain the potential benefit, as well as the potential costs should this action not be taken.</li>
</ul>
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<h2 dir="LTR">Background　</h2>
The review of mortgage brokers' practices follows on from ASIC's previous work on interest-only loans, which reviewed how lenders were meeting their responsible lending obligations when providing interest-only home loans (Report 445) . 　
The National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 (National Credit Act) requires mortgage brokers to make reasonable inquiries about the consumer’s requirements and objectives in relation to the loan and make an assessment of the as to the suitability of the loan they assist the consumer  in obtaining. 　
Report 445 found that a greater proportion of interest-only home loans were arranged through the mortgage broker channel than direct channels (lenders). More than 50 percent of consumers use the services of mortgage brokers to assist in securing credit more generally.　
Mortgage brokers are well placed to assist consumers find products that meet their requirements. For these benefits to be realised, it is important that consumers have confidence in mortgage brokers, including their compliance with the National Credit Act.　
ASIC is currently undertaking a separate review at the request of the Government in relation to broker remuneration structures and their effect on consumer outcomes. That report will be provided to the Government by the end of 2016.
To download the report, <a href="https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/reports/rep-493-review-of-interest-only-home-loans-mortgage-brokers-inquiries-into-consumers-requirements-and-objectives/" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Property 101: ASIC reports on mortgage brokers' responsible lending practices in relation to interest only home loans

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GUEST OBSERVER
Agriculture in vogue: New commercial loans to the Agriculture sector hit 6-year highs in the year to January.
Lending: Total new loans (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) fell by 2.9 percent in January after falling by 5.2 percent in December. Total lending is down by 7.4 percent on a year ago – the biggest annual decline in 3ó years.
Trends: In trend terms lending was down 0.9 percent in January – the fourth consecutive fall. Lending was up just 2.1 percent on a year ago – the weakest growth in almost three years.
The lending figures have implications for finance providers, retailers, and companies dependent on consumer and business spending.
What does it all mean?
Aussie consumers and businesses remain cautious about taking on more debt. Interest rates may be at or near generational lows, but that is no guarantee of higher rates of borrowing. In fact, after running up over the past two years, new lending commitments seem to have hit a ceiling. Effectively borrowers are saying that’s enough for now. 
Leasing is in favour though as are loans taken out by consumers to buy new cars.
The interesting point for the Reserve Bank though is whether another cut in the cash rate would serve any purpose. Borrowers are cautious about taking on more debt. And lower interest rates compress bank margins, affecting profits and potentially investment, employment and shareholder returns.
Click to enlarge
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Mining has fallen from favour, to be replaced by agriculture sector. Loans to rural businesses over the past year were the highest in six years. The lift in lending coincides with renewed interest in the sector from overseas investors and expectations of stronger Asian demand for Aussie food and beverage products.
What do the figures show?
Total new loans (personal, business, housing &amp; lease) fell by 2.9 percent in January after a 5.2 percent fall in December. Lending had hit a 7ó year high in September. Total lending is down 7.4 percent on a year ago.
Housing finance: The seasonally adjusted measure of construction and new purchases fell by 4.3 per cent in January while alterations &amp; additions rose by 1.5 percent. Home loans are up 15.9 per cent on a year.
Commercial finance: The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell by 2.5 per cent in January after falling by 8.8 percent in December. Revolving credit commitments fell by 2.2 per cent (-23.1 per cent in December). Fixed lending commitments fell by 2.5 per cent – the fourth straight decline. 
Business loans are down 16.3 per cent over the year.
Over the year to January, total business lending was $531.6 billion, up 7.4 per cent over the year. Lending rose most in Victoria (up 13.1 per cent) followed by Queensland (up 10.9 per cent), South Australia (up 9.4 per cent), NSW (up 7.8 cent) and Western Australia (down 13.2 per cent). No consistent data was available for other states and territories.
Personal finance : The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments fell by 1.4 per cent in January after rising by 2.1 per cent in December. 
Revolving credit commitments fell by 1.6 percent and fixed lending commitments fell by 1.2 per cent.
Personal loans are down 8.1 per cent over the year.
Within personal fixed finance commitments,  loans for new cars were up by 1.0 per cent on a year earlier while loans for used cars were down by 2.4 per cent. Loans for residential blocks of land were down by 10.0 per cent on a year ago – the 14th  decline in 15 months.
Lease finance : Lending rose by 3.7 per cent in January and was up 18.8 per cent over the year.
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What is the importance of the economic data?
Lending Finance  is released monthly by the Bureau of Statistics and contains figures on new housing, personal, commercial and lease finance commitments. The importance of the data lies in what it reveals about the appropriateness of interest rate settings, confidence and spending levels in the economy.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
The slowdown in new lending runs counter to other indicators such as record dwelling starts, record tourism and strong employment growth. Still, it does accord with record car sales. Overall it appears that consumers and businesses remain happy to use their own funds to make purchases.
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<img src="/images/2016/03/14/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-14%20at%2010.00.30%20AM.png" alt="">
The Reserve Bank will maintain its ‘easing bias’ although it may publicly express doubts about the ability of lower rates to boost activity.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>. 
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