A wave of investment, renewal and precinct growth continues to shape the northern edge of Macquarie Park, where daily life is supported by a rare combination of university activity, corporate employment, major retail, and expansive green corridors. It’s this convergence of amenity and connectivity underpins the setting for <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/urban-property-group">Urban Property Group</a>’s <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/la-vera-94-talavera-road-macquarie-park-nsw-2113">La Vera</a>, which has now topped out and is tracking toward completion in mid-2026.

Within this pocket of the precinct, residents move easily between the area’s key anchors. Macquarie Centre, home to more than 360 retailers, fresh food offerings, dining and entertainment, sits at the heart of local convenience and functions as a major transport interchange. The Metro, T1 rail line and extensive bus network place much of Sydney within quick reach, while surrounding arterial links support direct access to neighbouring districts.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5829]

Green space remains a defining feature of the immediate environment. Lane Cove National Park stretches along the northern boundary of the precinct, offering bushland trails, cycling routes and quiet riverfront pockets. Shrimptons Creek and the campus grounds of Macquarie University extend these recreational networks, softening the urban setting and creating a daily connection to nature that informs the project’s architectural response.

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/cox-architecture">Cox Architecture</a> have shaped La Vera around these contrasts. The building’s northern elevation adopts an organic, curvilinear form that mirrors the natural topography of the national park. Three sculpted forms soften the tower’s profile and encourage a stronger transition between indoor living areas, balconies and the broader landscape.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223737]

Cox Director Felipe Miranda says the building’s outlook played a central role in the design process.

“The vision for the project was to conceive a building that adopted an organic and curvilinear form to the northern portion that faces the Lane Cove National Park… The residents that reside in the northern portion of the building benefit by having beautifully crafted curved balconies that speak to the natural context and heighten the relationship of their internal living spaces to the external balconies,” Felipe Miranda of Cox Architecture said.

Toward the city-facing side, the design shifts to a more urban expression. A gridded facade and extensive glazing capture CBD views, creating a dual strategy that blends ecological outlooks with metropolitan orientation.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=5827]

La Vera delivers 169 residences across one- to four-bedroom layouts, reflecting the needs of young families, downsizers, first-home buyers and investors seeking long-term certainty within a high-amenity location. From the project, residents can walk to Macquarie University, Macquarie Hospital and nearby corporate offices, reach national park trails within minutes, and enjoy retail and dining without relying on a car.

The project is delivered by Urban Property Group, a 4.5-star iCIRT-rated developer-builder with more than three decades of experience. The company has become a leader in adopting 10-Year Latent Defects Insurance (LDI), first introduced on its Parq Bexley development and now embedded into its pipeline.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=134951 project_image_fid=223727]

La Vera is the first development in Macquarie Park approved to offer this 10-year LDI policy, adding another layer of protection for purchasers and reinforcing the transparency of the construction process.

Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias says this assurance has become increasingly important for buyers navigating the off-the-plan market.

“Consumers are a lot more weary and a lot more concerned in buying off the plan than they ever have been… Having LDI is a tool to portray the confidence that we have in our product, and a confidence we want buyers to share,” Urban Property Group CEO Patrick Elias said.

Urban Property Group's in-house construction team is forecasting a mid-2026 completion, with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/project-marketer/home789">HOME789</a> appointed as the project marketer.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=134951]

Staff Writer

La Vera delivers a nature-connected address within Macquarie Park’s core

<a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/buildings/aura-by-aqualand-north-sydney-168-walker-street-north-sydney-nsw-2060">AURA</a>&nbsp;doesn’t just rise over North Sydney, it redefines it. Now in its final release, <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/developers/aqualand-australia">Aqualand</a>’s $1 billion architectural statement is not just complete, but already reshaping the way people live, connect and dine in this rapidly evolving harbourside CBD.

Positioned beside the new Victoria Cross Metro Station and boasting panoramic views across Sydney Harbour, Aura’s 386 residences crown a mixed-use precinct designed with unapologetic ambition. The curvaceous sandstone-inspired form by <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/architects/woods-bagot">Woods Bagot</a>, paired with <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/interior-designers/richards-stanisich">Richard Stanisich</a>’s understated interiors, sets a design tone that’s both monumental and intimate.

At its peak, literally, the two penthouses so spectacular they command their own names; La Davina and Il Magnate. The residents are spread across the&nbsp;entire top floor, offering what many consider the most refined residences ever built in North Sydney. Designed by Richard and Kirsten Stanisich, each four-bedroom home is meticulously crafted to evoke calm, space, and permanence.&nbsp;

<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VB70993aG-I?si=adRBlXQliYmYvaSz" title="YouTube video player" width="560"></iframe>

The kitchens are fully wrapped in natural stone, with integrated Gaggenau appliances, Sub-Zero fridges, concealed sculleries, and even a zip hydro tap delivering boiling, chilled and sparkling water on demand. A linear stone fireplace anchors the open-plan living space, dividing lounge and dining zones with quiet sophistication.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=292861]

The master suite, meanwhile, feels more like a private retreat, complete with a custom stone makeup vanity, walk-through dressing area, and spa-inspired ensuite with heated stone floors, a freestanding Villeroy &amp; Boch tub, and timber veneer joinery throughout.

Kirsten Stanisich, Director of Richards Stanisich, said the penthouses offer incredible scale reflective of a single residence.&nbsp;

“We sought inspiration for these remarkable residences from the classic top-floor Parisian apartment," Stanisich said.

"We looked at what made these French apartments so elegant and found it really came down to their scale. It was ultimately this generosity of space that we used for the AURA penthouses, where we’ve designed considered rooms with deep large-scale proportions."

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=310337]

Everyday living at Aura feels no less elevated. A dedicated 24-hour concierge, Technogym fitness centre, sky dining terraces, and a resort-style pool serve a lifestyle designed to rival luxury hotels.

At street level, Aqualand’s own hospitality arm, Etymon Projects, curates a precinct of LA-style bistros, Japanese fine dining, and local wine bars, all seamlessly integrated into the building’s sculptural podium.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=30959 project_image_fid=310337]

This final chapter, aptly dubbed The Finale, is more than a sales phase, it’s an invitation to two of the most exclusive apartments ever to be built in North Sydney.

With limited residences remaining, buyers can access curated incentives including stamp duty rebates, rental guarantees, legal fee coverage, and even $20,000 towards dining within the precinct.

From generous one-bedders to The Icons, two singular penthouses priced well into prestige territory, Aura’s offerings reflect a scale and calibre rarely seen in urban Sydney. And with move-in now immediate, this is no longer a promise of future luxury. It’s happening.

[smartcode_project_cta:default project_id=30959]

Aqualand unveils penthouse collection at AURA By Aqualand in North Sydney

There’s no sign of the development wave that began several years ago slowing along Old Burleigh Road.

Around 10 new apartment developments are either underway or preparing to launch along the 800-metre strip stretching from the southern edge of Surfers Paradise towards the heart of Broadbeach, collectively adding just shy of 1,000 new apartments to the beachfront corridor.

The latest plans propose a further 30 apartments to replace an original six-unit walk-up on a 658 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/20a-old-burleigh-road-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">20A Old Burleigh Road</a>. The 14-storey building has been designed by Ferro Chow Architecture, which recently joined the Elevation Architecture Group.

The developer behind the project is Geoffrey Booth, whose Future Liv In has focused on delivering rental accommodation across regional Australia.

<img alt="Old Burleigh Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="99d393e7-d404-43bc-80cb-6255c39b83d6" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2012.28.44%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=ZFT8F3mOny4M4ut.kFF3woC9WH9oR5gT" />

The Old Burleigh Road development will comprise 18 two-bedroom apartments, 10 three-bedroom apartments, and a single four-bedroom residence occupying the entirety of level 12. Above, the building will be crowned by a two-storey penthouse with its own private lift, several multi-purpose rooms, and two rooftop terraces — one featuring a puppy lawn and spa, the other offering a private swimming pool, sunset deck, and built-in barbecue.

Resident amenities will be located on the second level and include a pool with adjoining spa, cabana, and pool deck, along with an indoor residents’ lounge featuring a bar and an alfresco barbecue kitchen.

In the architectural statement submitted by Elevation Architecture, the project is referred to as “UMI”, which the firm says has been “inspired by the majestic hinterlands and shaped by the coastal climate”.

“It is an exemplar of how community living can still feel at one with nature, breathable, and deeply connected in place,” the architects noted.

They added that the site benefits from established building separation to adjoining towers, helping to maintain privacy, sunlight, and residential amenity, while still offering direct beach access within an urban setting.

“Drawing inspiration from the Gold Coast hinterlands and the region’s natural landscape, the podium and tower detail highlights the contrasting elements of treetop green and cliff-face peach. The vibrant texture and materiality shaped by time has a richness in depth and character.”

<img alt="Old Burleigh Road" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b3d6c923-a0ab-4d74-86da-177313447e8e" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2012.28.38%E2%80%AFPM.png?VersionId=i2fygmoVQM6hWpbATTAW_yTitoMTrnI1" />

Old Burleigh Road has become a hotspot for developers, with the three-tower Jewel development kickstarting a wave of projects up and down the strip when it was completed in 2020.

Currently under construction and approaching completion is <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/faro-broadbeach-123-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">FARO Broadbeach</a> by 5Point and Bottega, 21 large-scale half- and full-floor apartments. 5Point is also behind the recently launched <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/lumara-108-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Lumara</a>, another 37 apartments to add to the pipeline.

Luxury builder GRAYA is progressing construction on <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/enclave-by-graya-118-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Enclave</a>, its first Gold Coast tower, while Polycell remains the most active developer on the street. They are preparing to launch <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/sandpiper-broadbeach-155-old-burleigh-road-broadbeach-qld-4218">Sandpiper</a>, a 50-storey redevelopment of the former Sandpiper Holiday Resort that will deliver around 200 apartments alongside extensive resident amenity. The group also has another 130-apartment project approved nearby, as does <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/news/qld/dvb-approved-for-second-broadbeach-apartment-development">Dean Gallagher’s DVB Projects</a>.

Joel Robinson

First look: Old Burleigh Road apartment development wave continues

Sunshine Coast developer Habitat Development Group continues to position itself as one of the region’s largest new apartment developers.

Its latest project is in Maroochydore, where it is currently delivering <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/the-millwell-2-millwell-road-east-maroochydore-qld-4558">The Millwell</a>. Adjacent to the new 53-hectare Maroochydore City Centre project, Habitat is planning a further 180 apartments on a 3,468 sqm site at <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/132-136-aerodrome-road-maroochydore-qld-4558">132–136 Aerodrome Road</a>. The site was purchased with approval for a smaller 13-storey, 103-unit building.

Habitat will demolish the two existing retail centres, currently home to the Salvation Army Family Store and Neighbours Aid, and replace them with an 18-storey building featuring the significant rooftop amenities that have become a hallmark of Habitat developments in recent years. The rooftop will include both indoor and outdoor spaces, anchored by an infinity swimming pool.

<img alt="Maroochydore" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ad434d07-666b-4614-b33e-530ad6a2d261" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2010.12.33%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=7pyLsPWKQuwv0us3_v.9DmbzEc2VZe9Z" />

There will be a mix of one- to four-bedroom apartments.

The Development Assessment Report, submitted to the Sunshine Coast Council, says the proposal&nbsp;is not speculative, but a response to both zoning intent and demonstrated housing need.

“The proposed development represents an appropriate and logical intensification of the site, consistent with the planning framework and the intended urban outcomes for the locality.”

Across the Sunshine Coast, councils are increasingly scrutinising not just height or yield, but whether new projects genuinely align with the long-term structure plans underpinning growth corridors. The&nbsp;ASTP Planning Report&nbsp;reinforces the approach, noting that the project has been shaped around site responsiveness rather than generic typology.

“The development has been designed to respond to the physical constraints and opportunities of the site, while delivering a high-quality residential outcome that integrates with the existing and emerging urban context.”

<img alt="Habitat" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="3a03fc54-4ca5-4868-88d0-eeced70604e2" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-05%20at%2010.12.28%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=1pkK3lJrrZjkghTLBReM2zatcas4Nc4B" />

In mid-2025, Habitat, a developer that also builds its own projects, commenced construction on The Millwell, located just over one kilometre from the new proposal. The Millwell will comprise more than 200 apartments across two eight-storey buildings.

Habitat also has two projects on Lake Kawana in Birtinya: <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/st-clair-birtinya-930-931-waterside-retreat-birtinya-qld-4575">St Clair</a>, a 200-unit, two-building development launched last year and set to welcome buyers this year; and Esperance, a 175-apartment project currently progressing through the development approval process.

First look: Habitat continues to bolster Sunshine Coast apartment pipeline with Maroochydore development plans

John Camilleri, the breeder of legendary racehorse Winx, is set to deliver a landmark two-tower beachfront development that would redefine the Surfers Paradise skyline.

Camilleri, who spent around $100 million acquiring development sites across the Gold Coast in 2025, has lodged plans for two new towers on the dress-circle stretch of Garfield Terrace, just two days before Christmas.

In assembling the site, Camilleri's Celestino Developments has effectively acquired the 71 Garfield project by Iris Capital and AALTO by Weiya Holdings, creating an unrivalled <a href="https://www.apartments.com.au/new-apartments/63-79-garfield-terrace-surfers-paradise-qld-4217">4,000 sqm beachfront holding along Garfield Terrace</a>.

The proposal comprises two residential towers of 55 and 48 storeys, linked by a dramatic skybridge which will home “exclusive VIP and wellness amenities.”

In total, the development would deliver 275 two-, three- and four-bedroom apartments across the two towers, rising above a shared landscaped podium that incorporates a central green space and a beachfront swimming pool stretching more than 90 metres.

<img alt="DBI" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="097900f3-6bef-4919-b168-b08f2f762876" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.37.58%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=et0SpmcvaPPVrexI_zWi46BVFtZBxAzx" />

Architecture firm DBI, in documents submitted to Gold Coast City Council, said the project at 63–79 Garfield Terrace would “establish a new benchmark for beachfront residential living on the Gold Coast.”

"The project occupies a rare, uninterrupted oceanfront site and has been shaped by a design philosophy that merges architectural elegance with environmental responsiveness and a carefully curated lifestyle experience. Together, the 48-storey North Tower and 55-storey South Tower form a distinctive twin-tower composition whose dynamic silhouette will make a significant contribution to the Surfers Paradise skyline."

DBI said the architectural language draws inspiration from the fluidity and movement of the coastal landscape.

"Each tower is defined by organic, curving forms and continuous balcony ribbons that wrap the buildings, providing deep shading, enhancing environmental performance, and reinforcing the rhythmic, sculptural expression of the façade. These balcony forms also reduce the apparent mass of the towers while maintaining strong visual continuity from podium to summit. Sculpted reflective downturns run along the western spine of both towers, shifting and lifting as they extend upwards to frame service zones and open eastward to maximise ocean views."

<img alt="Garfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a2a00ce3-a0e9-45d6-b4b5-b7baed592ac5" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.53.40%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=DnruWV1dhLrtXOeElwekyd7vPq2gw55t" />

The project’s most striking feature is the skybridge at level 45, which will house executive lounges, formal dining spaces, wellness facilities and panoramic ocean-facing views.

“The skybridge enhances the identity of the development, promotes social interaction, and delivers a lifestyle experience not found elsewhere on the Gold Coast,” DBI added.

The podium will host an extensive suite of recreational amenities, including resident lounges, private dining rooms, a large open green lawn, and the signature 90-metre pool stretching along the beachfront. The pool is divided into lap, lounge and children’s zones.

The southern end of the podium will accommodate additional wellness facilities, including a gymnasium, plunge pools, treatment rooms and a dedicated yoga lawn.

<img alt="Garfield" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="ee1b4f25-231f-4804-83b1-a573a1481962" src="https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202025-12-30%20at%209.55.47%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=zObzIA3D5w7EwqPsHjr2pKrA4vbB28zL" />

There will be 127 apartments in the North Tower and 148 in the South Tower, including multiple penthouses, while the Enderley Avenue and Oceanway frontages will be activated by a series of food and beverage tenancies.

Camilleri emerged as the most active site acquirer on the Gold Coast in 2025. He spent just over $30 million acquiring Pacific Point, a 10-level Surfers Paradise apartment block and an adjoining three-level duplex, from fellow racing identity and Aquis billionaire Tony Fung. Plans are now underway for a 93-apartment, 40-storey tower on the 1,682 sqm site.

He also paid $53.65 million for the 1,500 sqm Garfield Terrace site previously marketed as AALTO by Weiya Holdings, before acquiring the adjoining parcel from hotel billionaire Sam Arnaout’s Iris Capital, the developer behind V&amp;A Broadbeach.

First look exclusive: Billionaire Winx breeder’s bold two-tower Surfers Paradise play with 45th-storey skybridge

Lockout Laws

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) <a href="https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Pages/bocsar_media_releases/2019/mr-Impact-lockouts-on-the-CBD.aspx" target="_blank">recently claimed</a> Sydney’s alcohol licensing regulations, commonly known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/lockout-laws-26282" target="_blank">lockout laws</a>, reduced non-domestic assaults by 13% in the CBD.
Its calculation relied on a decision to allocate 1,837 of these offences to both Kings Cross and the CBD – that is, double-counting the data.
<a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladocs/submissions/63631/Submission%20734%20-%20Centre%20for%20Translational%20Data%20Science,%20University%20of%20Sydney.pdf" target="_blank">Our analysis</a> found this decision was critical to the conclusion that assaults decreased in the CBD. For every other choice about the areas to which offences data were allocated and type of analysis we found no decrease.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298452/original/file-20191024-119433-7qnb4k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Map of Sydney and the entertainment precincts as used by BOCSAR in its analysis: blue – CBD entertainment precinct; red – Kings Cross entertainment precinct; green – nearby displacement areas; yellow – outer displacement areas.
<a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladocs/submissions/63631/Submission%20734%20-%20Centre%20for%20Translational%20Data%20Science,%20University%20of%20Sydney.pdf%5D" target="_blank">Our findings</a> highlight an important question: how do the choices of data collection, pre-processing and analysis affect policy decisions?
The allocation of crimes to areas is just one of several choices made when using data to assess policy impacts. Other choices include how to measure violent crime, what time period to consider and the geographical extent of the areas to include. The question is: if other choices were made, would the results affect a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-08/sydney-lockout-laws-rolled-back/11489806" target="_blank">decision to repeal or continue the laws</a>?
Our findings point to the need to follow a couple of principles when using data to inform policymaking. First, the institution that collects data and the institution that analyses the data should be independent of each other. Second, we need as much transparency about the data and its analysis as possible.
<h2>So what exactly did the analyses show?</h2>
BOCSAR chose to use monthly non-domestic assaults from 2009 onwards. There is nothing wrong with these choices, but others could have been made.
For instance, why from 2009 onwards, not from 2005? Why monthly, not daily? Why reported non-domestic assaults, not reported assaults causing grievous bodily harm? Why divide the area into the CBD and Kings Cross only?
One way of assessing the impact of such choices is to use different subsets of data, different types of data pre-processing and different statistical and/or machine-learning techniques. If the conclusion still remains the same, then our decision is robust to this source of variability. If not, we need to understand why.
For the Kings Cross precinct, the analysis by the Centre for Translational Data Science at the University of Sydney showed the conclusion remained unchanged irrespective of the frequency and period over which data were collected and the analysis performed. Non-domestic assaults had declined following the introduction of the lockout laws in 2014.
For the CBD the reverse was true. Only if we make exactly the same choices as BOCSAR, in particular allocating 1,837 crimes to both the CBD and King Cross, could we conclude non-domestic assaults had decreased very slightly.
Under all other variations of the analyses, including data, methodology and spatial allocation of that data, we found no decrease. Non-domestic assaults in the CBD had been decreasing since 2008 and, if anything, more slowly after the lockout laws took effect.
So why was the inclusion of 1,837 crimes so critical to the conclusions about the CBD?
Using data provided by BOCSAR, we plotted the most likely location of those 1,837 crimes. Figure 1 shows these crimes occurred mainly in Kings Cross, an area in which the crime rate had fallen since 2014. We say “most likely location” because we have yet to receive the additional data we requested from BOCSAR to help us locate exactly where these crimes occurred.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298427/original/file-20191023-119429-qgf5xh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298427/original/file-20191023-119429-qgf5xh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a> Counts of crimes (per SA1 region) that were assigned to both the CBD and Kings Cross. Centre for Translational Data Science, Author provided
With the removal of those 1,837 crimes from the CBD, we detected no decrease in non-domestic assaults. But BOCSAR apparently did. After removing those crimes from the CBD, BOCSAR released an <a href="https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/BB/2019-Report-Effect-of-lockout-and-last-drinks-laws-on-assaults-BB142.pdf" target="_blank">updated report</a> to a <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/listofcommittees/Pages/committee-details.aspx?pk=260" target="_blank">parliamentary inquiry into Sydney’s night-time economy</a>. This report claimed assaults in the CBD decreased by 4% (much less than the original 13%).
The committee then asked for our <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladocs/other/12591/Centre%20for%20Translational%20Data%20Science.pdf" target="_blank">comments</a>. We found the report did not provide a confidence interval for this decrease. Yet the report made a virtue of reporting uncertainty estimates for other quantities and elsewhere it claimed “statistically significant” results.
We replicated BOCSAR’s analysis and found the change in crime could have been as low as a 12% decrease and as high as a 6% increase. In other words, the result is “statistically insignificant”.
<h2>What are the implications for making policy?</h2>
Why does this matter? There are two reasons.
First, the danger in not explaining, quantifying and reporting uncertainty is that the public loses trust in data-driven policymaking. Only if conclusions acknowledge and explain the uncertainty inherent in inferring complex quantities from data can we make robust and explainable policy decisions that build trust with the public.
Second, if we don’t accept and report uncertainty we could stop looking for other explanations. We might then fail to achieve an outcome that everyone wants: a reduction in violence and a healthy night-time economy.
How do we proceed from here? We’d make two recommendations:
<ol>
<li>
The institution that collects and curates the data should be distinct, informed but independent from the institution/s that analyse the data.
</li>
<li>
There should be as much data transparency as possible, which would enable different groups to perform different types of analyses, using different sources of data.
</li>
</ol>
We are almost certain these different groups would produce different findings, but the subsequent discussion could provide insights that move us closer to more robust and acceptable policy decisions.
To <a href="https://www.brainpickings.org/2012/08/27/richard-feynman-on-the-role-of-scientific-culture-in-modern-society/" target="_blank">quote</a> Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman:
If we will only allow that, as we progress, we remain unsure, we will leave opportunities for alternatives … to make progress, one must leave the door to the unknown ajar.
The <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladocs/inquiries/2519/Report%20-%20Sydneys%20night%20time%20economy.pdf" target="_blank">parliamentary committee’s recommendation</a> that BOCSAR and the Centre for Translational Data Science work together more closely appears to do just that. We look forward to an ongoing collaboration to further our understanding of the drivers of violent crime.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125227/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sally-cripps-857344" target="_blank">Sally Cripps</a>, Professor of Statistics, Director of Centre for Translational Data Science, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/roman-marchant-365741" target="_blank">Roman Marchant</a>, Senior research fellow and lecturer, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-lockout-laws-review-highlights-vital-role-of-transparent-data-analysis-125227" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney lockout laws review highlights vital role of transparent data analysis

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The NSW Government is inviting community feedback on the second stage of its 24-hour economy liquor law reforms.
The draft Liquor Amendment (24-hour Economy) Bill 2020 aims to create risk-based liquor laws that support business.
Minister for Customer Service Victor Dominello said, “the proposals will help boost the state’s night time economy by removing outdated laws, simplifying licensing processes and creating a new incentives and sanctions system that rewards licence holders with a clear record.” 
“We want pubs, bars and hotels to hit the ground running on the other side, but we are mindful of how rules such as social distancing may need to be accommodated.”
Minister for Jobs, Investment, Tourism and Western Sydney Stuart Ayres said the hospitality sector is a significant employer and lifeblood for many communities, but has been dealt a devastating blow and brought to its knees due to COVID-19.
“COVID-19 has hit the hospitality industry hard and fast. We recognise the importance of streamlining the previously complicated legislation to make it easier for industry to get back on their feet as social distancing restrictions ease,” Mr Ayres said.
“There is now clearly a light at the end of the tunnel for our hospitality sector and this will give them hope for the future.”
Key proposals include:
A new incentives and sanctions system with ongoing fee discounts for licensed venues that maintain a clear record; Removal of outdated live music restrictions; Allow small bars to offer more family friendly services to customers, by permitting minors in certain circumstances; Reducing red tape by aligning liquor licensing and planning processes; and Enhancing same day alcohol delivery regulations.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Economic reform supports 24-hour nightlife revival post coronavirus

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) recently claimed Sydney’s alcohol licensing regulations, commonly known as lockout laws, reduced non-domestic assaults by 13% in the CBD.
Its calculation relied on a decision to allocate 1,837 of these offences to both Kings Cross and the CBD – that is, double-counting the data.
<a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladocs/submissions/63631/Submission%20734%20-%20Centre%20for%20Translational%20Data%20Science,%20University%20of%20Sydney.pdf" target="_blank">Our analysis</a> found this decision was critical to the conclusion that assaults decreased in the CBD. For every other choice about the areas to which offences data were allocated and type of analysis we found no decrease.
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298452/original/file-20191024-119433-7qnb4k.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Map of Sydney and the entertainment precincts as used by BOCSAR in its analysis: blue – CBD entertainment precinct; red – Kings Cross entertainment precinct; green – nearby displacement areas; yellow – outer displacement areas.
<a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladocs/submissions/63631/Submission%20734%20-%20Centre%20for%20Translational%20Data%20Science,%20University%20of%20Sydney.pdf%5D" target="_blank">Our findings</a> highlight an important question: how do the choices of data collection, pre-processing and analysis affect policy decisions?
The allocation of crimes to areas is just one of several choices made when using data to assess policy impacts. Other choices include how to measure violent crime, what time period to consider and the geographical extent of the areas to include. The question is: if other choices were made, would the results affect a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-08/sydney-lockout-laws-rolled-back/11489806" target="_blank">decision to repeal or continue the laws</a>?
Our findings point to the need to follow a couple of principles when using data to inform policymaking. First, the institution that collects data and the institution that analyses the data should be independent of each other. Second, we need as much transparency about the data and its analysis as possible.
So what exactly did the analyses show?
BOCSAR chose to use monthly non-domestic assaults from 2009 onwards. There is nothing wrong with these choices, but others could have been made.
For instance, why from 2009 onwards, not from 2005? Why monthly, not daily? Why reported non-domestic assaults, not reported assaults causing grievous bodily harm? Why divide the area into the CBD and Kings Cross only?
One way of assessing the impact of such choices is to use different subsets of data, different types of data pre-processing and different statistical and/or machine-learning techniques. If the conclusion still remains the same, then our decision is robust to this source of variability. If not, we need to understand why.
For the Kings Cross precinct, the analysis by the Centre for Translational Data Science at the University of Sydney showed the conclusion remained unchanged irrespective of the frequency and period over which data were collected and the analysis performed. Non-domestic assaults had declined following the introduction of the lockout laws in 2014.
For the CBD the reverse was true. Only if we make exactly the same choices as BOCSAR, in particular allocating 1,837 crimes to both the CBD and King Cross, could we conclude non-domestic assaults had decreased very slightly.
Under all other variations of the analyses, including data, methodology and spatial allocation of that data, we found no decrease. Non-domestic assaults in the CBD had been decreasing since 2008 and, if anything, more slowly after the lockout laws took effect.
So why was the inclusion of 1,837 crimes so critical to the conclusions about the CBD?
Using data provided by BOCSAR, we plotted the most likely location of those 1,837 crimes. Figure 1 shows these crimes occurred mainly in Kings Cross, an area in which the crime rate had fallen since 2014. We say “most likely location” because we have yet to receive the additional data we requested from BOCSAR to help us locate exactly where these crimes occurred.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298427/original/file-20191023-119429-qgf5xh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/298427/original/file-20191023-119429-qgf5xh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Counts of crimes (per SA1 region) that were assigned to both the CBD and Kings Cross. Centre for Translational Data Science, Author provided
With the removal of those 1,837 crimes from the CBD, we detected no decrease in non-domestic assaults. But BOCSAR apparently did. After removing those crimes from the CBD, BOCSAR released an <a href="https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/BB/2019-Report-Effect-of-lockout-and-last-drinks-laws-on-assaults-BB142.pdf" target="_blank">updated report</a> to a <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/listofcommittees/Pages/committee-details.aspx?pk=260" target="_blank">parliamentary inquiry into Sydney’s night-time economy</a>. This report claimed assaults in the CBD decreased by 4% (much less than the original 13%).
The committee then asked for our <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladocs/other/12591/Centre%20for%20Translational%20Data%20Science.pdf" target="_blank">comments</a>. We found the report did not provide a confidence interval for this decrease. Yet the report made a virtue of reporting uncertainty estimates for other quantities and elsewhere it claimed “statistically significant” results.
We replicated BOCSAR’s analysis and found the change in crime could have been as low as a 12% decrease and as high as a 6% increase. In other words, the result is “statistically insignificant”.
What are the implications for making policy?
Why does this matter? There are two reasons.
First, the danger in not explaining, quantifying and reporting uncertainty is that the public loses trust in data-driven policymaking. Only if conclusions acknowledge and explain the uncertainty inherent in inferring complex quantities from data can we make robust and explainable policy decisions that build trust with the public.
Second, if we don’t accept and report uncertainty we could stop looking for other explanations. We might then fail to achieve an outcome that everyone wants: a reduction in violence and a healthy night-time economy.
How do we proceed from here? We’d make two recommendations:
<ol>
<li>
The institution that collects and curates the data should be distinct, informed but independent from the institution/s that analyse the data.
</li>
<li>
There should be as much data transparency as possible, which would enable different groups to perform different types of analyses, using different sources of data.
</li>
</ol>
We are almost certain these different groups would produce different findings, but the subsequent discussion could provide insights that move us closer to more robust and acceptable policy decisions.
To <a href="https://www.brainpickings.org/2012/08/27/richard-feynman-on-the-role-of-scientific-culture-in-modern-society/" target="_blank">quote</a> Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman: "If we will only allow that, as we progress, we remain unsure, we will leave opportunities for alternatives … to make progress, one must leave the door to the unknown ajar."
The <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/ladocs/inquiries/2519/Report%20-%20Sydneys%20night%20time%20economy.pdf" target="_blank">parliamentary committee’s recommendation</a> that BOCSAR and the Centre for Translational Data Science work together more closely appears to do just that. We look forward to an ongoing collaboration to further our understanding of the drivers of violent crime.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/125227/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Sally Cripps, Professor of Statistics, Director of Centre for Translational Data Science, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>.
Roman Marchant, Senior research fellow and lecturer, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841" target="_blank">University of Sydney</a>.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-lockout-laws-review-highlights-vital-role-of-transparent-data-analysis-125227" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/83443/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
The Sydney “lockout laws” have created significant debate about whether crime is being reduced, if it is being pushed into surrounding areas, and what the impacts are on local residents.
My research with Georgia Perks found that, despite reports of increased violence in these areas surrounding the lockout zone, the benefit outweighs the costs for local residents.
Our analysis of rental prices shows a small decline immediately after the lockout laws came into effect in February 2014. Since then, rents in these areas have outstripped other comparable areas in Sydney. 
This shows that residents of areas affected by the lockout are benefiting from new entertainment hubs and a nightlife economy that have sprung up since the lockout laws took effect.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-12%20at%208.52.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-12%20at%208.52.38%20AM.png" alt="">
<h2>The impact of the lockout laws on crime</h2>
The lockout law prohibits people entering hotels, registered clubs, nightclubs and karaoke bars after 1.30am in several areas of Sydney’s CBD (also called the Sydney Entertainment Precinct). These venues also have to stop serving alcohol after 3am. 
This law is a type of “geographically targeted crime control”. This means it targets “hot spots”, rather than the root cause of the crime.
If we are simply concerned about crime reduction, there are now several studies that show the lockout laws have substantially reduced the amount of alcohol-related violence and injuries in the targeted areas.
Restrictions on alcohol access have also been shown to work elsewhere, notably in Western Australia, Newcastle, and Queensland. Outside of Australia, this has been shown to work in the United States, Sweden, and the Netherlands.
So there is sufficient evidence to support the effectiveness of restrictions like the lockout laws in reducing crime in the targeted areas. But the research also shows increased violence in neighbouring areas, suggesting crime has moved. 
An important question is whether increased nightlife in these surrounding areas outweighs the cost of increased crime, and what is more important to local residents. 
<h2>Weighing up the lockout laws</h2>
A standard way to quantify the pros and cons of a policy like the lockout laws to local residents, and to weigh up factors such as crime and added entertainment venues, is to look at housing market data. 
When they make their decisions, potential buyers and sellers take into account information such as local crime and amenities (schools, entertainment venues, etc). Market prices then reflect this information and decision-making. If the average price in an area increases that means the value of living in that area has increased, taking all factors into consideration.
Using this logic, we studied rental prices in areas surrounding the target areas for the lockout laws. More data is available on rental prices in the short run than house prices, so it is useful to study the immediate market response to new policies. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-12%20at%208.55.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/09/12/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-12%20at%208.55.04%20AM.png" alt="">
We collected prices both before and after the lockout law took effect, and compared areas in Sydney that have entertainment venues such as Newtown and Pyrmont (the “displacement area”) with areas that don’t, such as Alexandria, Chippendale, and Rozelle (the “control area”).
Our results show that there was a relatively small drop in rental prices of smaller dwellings (most likely to be on the main roads surrounding entertainment venues) in areas neighbouring the lockout, but this effect was weak and short-lived. This indicates that the market responded negatively to the increased crime being displaced from lockout areas, but this sentiment dissipated quickly.
On the other hand, we observe a greater, positive effect for larger dwellings. These are most likely to be off the main roads, having some separation from the noise and lights of the entertainment hubs but still near the nightlife. This phenomenon persisted throughout our study period, as shown in the following chart. 
The trend in the displacement area outweighed the trend in the control area. This difference after the implementation of the laws is statistically significant.
Overall our research strengthens the idea that the lockout laws are effective in controlling alcohol-fuelled crime and violence. Data show that crime and violence in displacement areas increased by a much smaller amount than the reduction in the lockout areas. This means residents in the displacement areas are actually better off due to new access to entertainment venues and the nightlife economy. 
However, this is not a full endorsement of the lockout laws. Neither our research nor earlier studies have investigated the business side of the lockout laws and the impact on the nightlife economy. There are likely to be forgone profits and lost jobs in targeted areas, as well as extra profits and new job opportunities in the displacement areas.
Similarly, we should study the gains and losses of non-resident late-night partygoers. The loss of nightlife and live entertainment culture in the target area was continuously highlighted in the debate. 
These concern have influenced a recent relaxation in the lockout laws for establishments that provide “genuine live entertainment”. Is this the right decision? We have a strong evidence of the effectiveness of the Sydney lockout laws in crime prevention. What we need is further evidence of the effects on these other groups.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shiko-maruyama-405538" target="_blank">Shiko Maruyama</a> is Associate Professor of Economics, University of Technology Sydney and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Are residents better off under the Sydney ‘lockout laws’?

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Sydney’s lockout laws, as well as current and proposed restrictions in other Australian cities including Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Newcastle, are perhaps more about regulating people’s behaviours in cities than about liquor licensing.
Such knee-jerk responses to tidy up the mess of complex issues belie society’s need for diversity. They also neglect culture’s debt to the manifold possibilities of social behaviour in urban space.
Viewed as part of a broader historical pattern, such episodes of regulatory crackdown remind us that a seemingly purified city is not necessarily a healthy or diverse one.
<h2>Early steps</h2>
Australian cities have always been extraordinarily diverse places. Amid broader sociocultural and regulatory shifts, this diversity has produced instability as people from different backgrounds, ages, means, religions, sexualities and abilities have come together.
Some of the places where these instabilities play out are on the streets and in drinking establishments such as the café, bar and pub. People watch each other, ascribing meanings onto each other based on visual cues. Public drunkenness is one such cue.
An especially notorious instance was in London in the early 1700s during the gin craze. William Hogarth, the pictorial satirist of urban life, captured “Gin Lane” in 1751. On the streets of London, Hogarth moralised the issue, representing men wasting away rather than working, and a mother neglecting her children, allowing them to fall headfirst down the stairs. 
The issue was not alcohol itself (Hogarth thought beer okay), but rather the relationship between gin, nationalism and the lower classes, which apparently produced vice and neglect. The London authorities’ response was to regulate by introducing the Gin Acts, which raised prices and cut consumption.
In Australia, liquor licensing has also never operated in a historical or urban vacuum. English writer Richard Horne observed in Melbourne in the 1850s:
"The scenes that are witnessed, half-way up Bourke Street, in the direct line of both our Houses of Parliament [Spring Street], actually surpass anything in St Gile’s or Covent Garden [London] after dusk. It may seem strange that city authorities do not abate these disgraceful nuisances.
The “nuisances” he saw were young women. A typical mid-19th-century moralist, Horne believed – based on visual cues – that these women were “depraved”. Being an unaccompanied woman on the street was apparently linked to the dual vices of drinking and prostitution.
The solution Horne proposed was intervention by the urban authorities, to clear the streets for people that he perceived as more respectable.
<h2>The 20th century to today</h2>
Over the next century, the temperance movement sought to eliminate all alcohol consumption. So came about the pubs with no beer: the coffee palaces.
Across the Australian city, immaculate buildings were designed by leading architects to house these late-night venues, including the Federal Coffee Palace in Melbourne, the Sydney Coffee Palace in Woolloomooloo and the People’s Palace in Brisbane.
Urban improvement extended from buildings to the streets where freshwater fountains were constructed to quench the thirst of urban dwellers “in the interests of humanity and temperance”. Improving streets and cities for the greater good, such measures were typical of turn-of-the-20th-century social advocacy.
Young people were known to congregate around the fountains. Even during periods of restrictive liquor licensing, urban diversity has taken many forms, so long as alternative public places have been provided.
The next challenge for inner-city urban life related to liquor regulation was the early closing movement, coupled with rapid mid-20th-century suburbanisation that emptied out the Australian CBD outside the working week. The early closure of pubs led to the infamous six o’clock swil<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://journals.publishing.monash.edu.au/ojs/index.php/ha/article/view/347">l</a>.
Although temperance campaigners denied the existence of a “Pig Swill” during the NSW Royal Commission on Liquor in 1952, had the campaigners visited a pub or the street in the late afternoon their minds might have been changed. The refusal to visit the streets, to seek out visual cues, represented a form of wilful blindness typical across urban history.
At that time, hordes of pub patrons, predominantly men, entered the street on their way home to the suburbs. Outside Melbourne’s Young and Jackson pub on Swanston Street, opposite Flinders Street Station, men lined up to publicly urinate against the tiles. Walking past this prominent spot, opposite St Paul’s Cathedral, was no doubt an undesirable street experience.
Over the coming years every Australian city liberalised its licensing hours. Adelaide was the last to do so in 1967. These changes paved the way for the night culture familiar to us today.
Whenever authorities have regulated the city there have been unintended consequences. Heightening liquor regulation has for centuries been the immediate response of urban policymakers when confronted with people and behaviours deemed socially undesirable.
The overarching goal has been to impose a sense of order on the city and its spaces. But that happens at the expense of street life, public safety and social diversity. Shutting the pub early impacts urban life as a holistic ecosystem and, without viable public alternatives as in the past, this serves to eliminate difference on the street.
Cities thrive as messy places. No matter the underlying justification, to “lock out” the city is to diminish it.
Andrew J. May is professor of history, University of Melbourne and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-j-may-96245" target="_blank">here</a>.
James Lesh is research assistant and PhD candidate, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, University of Melbourne and can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-lesh-257650" target="_blank">here</a>.
Both are authors for The Conversation.
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